puljujarvireasonable expectations 16-17

BLUE MONEY

by Lowetide
written by Lowetide

On his first night as an NHL coach, Craig MacTavish ran Tom Poti 27 minutes, Janne Niinimaa 23 minutes and Jason Smith 22 minutes. That trio represented his reliable group, and then he spotted young Eric Brewer (17), Frank Musil (16) and rugged Sean Brown (10 minutes). That group had lost Roman Hamrlik during the summer, he played 24:39 in his final game as an Oiler (playoffs v. Dallas). Igor Ulanov was on that 2000-01 team as well, but it was a group that needed to replace Hamrlik while still dealing with some chaos in the game of puck mover Poti and the rare but real vapor-lock moments of Mr. Niinimaa (who I loved as a player).

Building a defense is very difficult, as the Oilers have proven since 2006 fall. This year, the club appears to have three good ones again, and some real help to deal with the injuries. The defense is still on a journey and cannot boast balance, but you can see there is a plan—and that is progress.

ANDREJ SEKERA

The RE has him surrounded, but it does not tell the story—and that is the case so often with defensemen and boxcars. Sekera has been a terrific defender on top of the offense, and for me the No. 1 defenseman on the team (your mileage may vary). Has played 330 minutes against elite opponents (45.4 Dangerous Fenwick), Corsi for 5×5 is 49.7 overall, 55.6 percent without Kris Russell. Sekera is money.

OSCAR KLEFBOM

RE nailed the Klefbom estimate, but the young man cheated injury and good for him. I like Oscar as the offensive element on a pairing (with Adam Larsson) as opposed to the defensive conscience, as he was with Justin Schultz. It is so good to see a defenseman who Edmonton drafted and developed emerge as a bona fide NHL player. Has played 306 minutes against elite opponents (43.8 Dangerous Fenwick), Corsi for 5×5 is 51.2 overall, 50.5 with Larsson. It has been a fine season for Oscar the Dreamy.

ADAM LARSSON

These defensemen cannot fool the RE, but Larsson is far more than the boxcars. He is the type of player I appreciate, so his improving performance over the year (visually) has been enjoyable to watch. His play in Montreal showcased what he does well, and it has real value. Has played 328 minutes against elite opponents (45.8 Dangerous Fenwick), Corsi for 5×5 is 49.8 overall, 50.5 with Klefbom. He has been effective in helping settle the defense, in my opinion.

MATT BENNING

  • RE: Not projected to play in the NHL this season
  • Actual: 41gp, 2-8-10 (.244)
I didn’t think he would play at all this season in the NHL, but Benning hit the ground running and the record shows just two appearances below the NHL. What a fine young hockey player, and a perfect fit for Edmonton. Mobile, great passer, righthanded and learning more each game. I believe he is the best rookie defenseman signed/developed by Edmonton since Oscar Klefbom, due mostly to his range of skills. Has played 204 minutes against elite opponents (48.3 Dangerous Fenwick) and leads the club with a 53.9 Corsi for 5×5 percentage. He is 58.1 with Andrej Sekera.

DARNELL NURSE

Darnell Nurse was making excellent progress in year two of his NHL career, when an injury cut a big piece of his season away. It is unlikely he will dress for 50 games this season, but there was clear progress and we hope he returns with those wheels and can build on progress. Played 97 minutes against elite competition (50.1 Dangerous Fenwick) and a 53.2 Corsi for 5×5, while boasting a 54.4 possession number with Matt Benning. Oilers will apparently get him back sometime this month.

KRIS RUSSELL

  • RE: Russell was not signed at the time of RE
  • Actual: 47gp, 0-5-5 (.106)
Russell’s signing came late, so I did not project him onto the roster. He has been talked about a lot through the first half of the season, but his lack of offense doesn’t seem to be important. Before signing in Edmonton, Russell averaged 26 points per 82 games. Where are the points? Hmm. We hear rumors of a long-term deal and maybe that happens, but Russell is flagging in a big way offensively. Has played 309 minutes against elite competition (46.3 Dangerous Fenwick) and is 46.2 Corsi for 5×5, 46.1 with Sekera. Todd McLellan likes his speed, but will Peter Chiarelli sign a nine-point defender for $4 million times three?

ERIC GRYBA

  • RE: Gryba was not signed at the time of RE
  • Actual: 26gp, 1-2-3 (.115)
Gryba, like Russell, was a late addition (PTO, then contract) but his number would probably have been something like 50, 1-4-5. I like Gryba, because he can defend, but he also takes penalties and is going to have a helluva time holding back the coming flood of mobiles. He has played 106 minutes against the elites, 48.7 percent Dangerous Fenwick. Corsi for 5×5 is 53.8 and he did most of his beau dommage with Darnell Nurse.

MARK FAYNE

The Oilers may get through the season without using him as a regular. Because I am a bitter, spiteful sort, so hope and pray he gets called up, flourishes, saves the big goal with a great play and the Oilers proceed with him on the RH side. Mark Fayne can help this team.

BRANDON DAVIDSON

He is starting to push at levels we can recognize from a year ago, and that is very encouraging. Has played 78 minutes against elites, sitting at 43.1 Dangerous Fenwick, 48.9 Corsi for 5×5 percentage. I think he is going to be a good defenseman for a long time, hope the Oilers find a way to keep him.

DILLON SIMPSON

Simpson showed well in his first audition and appears to be a player the Oilers can include as a callup option. The best thing for him is that he is not expensive and is a good enough skater.

JORDAN OESTERLE

  • RE: 44gp, 2-6-8 (.182)
  • Actual: 1gp, 0-0-0
Oesterle’s season has included injury and that puts him in a tough spot (and the team too, more below). He looked good in his one game, Oesterle is a player I would like to see signed for next year.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

  • Andrej Sekera—There are four more seasons after this one on Sekera’s contract, if he performs at this level, his contract will be the stuff of legends. Unlikely of course, but this is a terrific year.
  • Oscar Klefbom—Six more years after this one, and his $4.167M cap hit may represent serious value during many of those seasons. Mobile, fairly complete skill set, he is on pace for over 200 shots this season. Klefbom has been lugging the puck more often, and successfully.
  • Adam Larsson—Four more years after this one, at $4.167M cap hit. Larsson isn’t going to score 30 points a year, but he can help defensively and appears to be stepping up over the last 20 games or so. I like this kind of player, so this blog is likely to be supportive. You have been warned.
  • Matt Benning—One more year at $925,000 after this one. I spend much of the spring and summer prattling on about value contracts, well, this is one. We cannot assume next season will be as good, but we can hope. Benning was a perfect fit for need this season and could be a big part of the future.
  • Darnell Nurse—He has one more year on his entry-level deal after this one, but even with bonuses it comes in well below $2M. Nurse has good wheels and an improving defensive resume, but it is important to keep him sheltered and playing third-pairing minutes. I like him a lot, hope they don’t rush him (again).
  • Kris Russell—The Oilers likely want to sign Russell, but cannot sign and protect him in the expansion draft without losing a quality piece. So, they may want to sign him after the expansion draft, but at that point Russell could decide to wait for a full swing at free agency. I don’t think it is a slam dunk he signs here.
  • Eric Gryba—7D and I cannot imagine he returns for another year. I guess there might be an opportunity similar to this past summer, where both sides danced all night but no one else wanted to go home with them. I like this player, don’t know that thee will be room.
  • Mark Fayne—The Oilers will buy him out with extreme prejudice.
  • Brandon Davidson—Injuries derailed his season, shame too because he is/was close to establishing himself as a bona fide top 4D. He makes $1.425M next year, making him a stunning attraction for teams like the Chicago Blackhawks and others who are cap helled. I hope they keep him, but it does not look promising.
  • Dillon Simpson—Showed well in his outings and we will see when he gets his next shot. RFA.
  • Jordan Oesterle—Also RFA, Oesterle probably has some options  should Edmonton walk him, but I bet the two sides get together on a deal.

Jesse Puljujarvi appears to be finding his way now in Bakersfield, he is 2-1-3 in his last two games with nine shots on goal. Puljujarvi played with Anton Lander and Iiro Pakarinen last night, maybe the whole damn line comes up at the same time ala the Michel Riesen—Brian Swanson—Daniel Cleary Bulldogs line 2000 fall.

THANKS

My thanks as always to GMoney and Woodguy for the Woodmoney numbers quoted above. WG has a new post up at his site, and it dovetails nicely with our conversation about defensemen.

EXPANSION TALK

Here is my current view on the protected list:

  • Goal: Cam Talbot
  • Defense: Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson
  • Center: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Mark Letestu
  • Left Wing: Milan Lucic, Patrick Maroon, Jujhar Khaira
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle
  • Ineligible for Selection: G Nick Ellis, D Darnell Nurse, D Matt Benning, C Connor McDavid, R Jesse Puljujarvi, C Drake Caggiula, R Anton Slepyshev.
  • Available: D Brandon Davidson, D Griffin Reinhart, L Benoit Pouliot, R Zack Kassian.

We have discussed at length the idea of trading Brandon Davidson and his name appears to be out there. In order for it to make sense, the Oilers would need to acquire a forward who is better than Jujhar Khaira, who I rank as the No. 7 name on the list. I still think Davidson goes for a pick, but we should keep in mind the club could still go 1-4-4 and leave Patrick Maroon or Jordan Eberle unprotected. I doubt it happens, but the wheels have many miles of track to go.

STANDINGS, THIS MORNING

This is a good news table for Edmonton. The week off is going very well so far, with the LAK losing two in a row and the Anaheim Ducks unable to break away. The Sharks are grabbing some clearance, and the Flames are still hanging around. The Canucks may be done for good this time, their recent losing streak putting them in the ditch again. It is fun to look at the standings these days, I always start from the bottom because 10 years, but it also feels good to find the Oilers logo beside a playoff spot.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Something of a moving target this morning, a few irons in the fire and we will see when we see. 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Brandon Davidson trade value, Kris Russell in free agency, and we will drill down on WGs latest article.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. The trade deadline ranker is moving every day now, are the Oilers in on Shattenkirk? What about Duchene?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

 

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Jethro Tull

Lowetide:
If you want to piss on people, start your own blog and start writing. If you want to post here, have some respect. Thanks.

I thought it was pretty respectful, unless you deleted some posts?

0
spoiler

Bruce McCurdy: “Bettman” has always been a proxy for “the League” = “the owners”. He’s just the front man.

If I were an owner I would want a better fucking product. But that’s just me.

Bruce, don’t you think as an owner, seats in the seats would be a primary concern? You can build whatever styled-team you wish–exciting or otherwise–but a point system that fills the seats for longer, even in seasons when your team is not as competitive, has to be awfully attractive.

It floats all boats, whether they’re barnacled and dingy, or clean and painted. And its effect on “excitement” is I think, overstated.

It’s not the point system I would build, but I respect the Owners’ choice and have the good sense not to bark into a wind that’s not letting up any time soon.

There’s been a LOT of barking into the wind this comment thread. Wish we could waste our time here less wastefully, lol.

0
Lowetide

If you want to piss on people, start your own blog and start writing. If you want to post here, have some respect. Thanks.

0
Professor Q

Recalls means that it’s almost time for practices to restart! Excitement increases.

0
Side

Are there any stats out there that show how many games ended in tie before the Bettman point system and how many games go to Overtime under the Bettman point system?

Surely this can be researched by people who are not as lazy as I am.

0
npanciroli

Oesterle and Lander recalled.

0
Chachi

Bruce McCurdy: I couldn’t disagree more. The incentive to sit on a lead is the same as ever, as a win is the best possible result either way. The incentive to break a tie, however, is greatly enhanced.

In the NHL the incentive is to “sit on a tie”.

I think we will have to agree to disagree. I have watched thousands of hours of soccer. Most games start out being played extremely conservatively and once (or if) one side scores it gets even worse with the leading side getting 10 men behind the ball at all times. I enjoy the tactics involved and grew up watching it so I will continue to watch it, but I can see why many people find it boring.

Edited to add: I used to think moving to 3 points for a regulation win would make the NHL more exciting, but coaching and goal tending being what they are these days I do not think it would change tactics much at all.

0
N64

Shane:
Bohologo,

Now all I can think of is getting an Oilers sweater with ‘Cap Space’ on the back. I’d probably go broke though having to constantly re-sow the ever changing number.

Go with Dead Cap Space. Then you’ll only need to change the number when you pick a new goat.

0
Bruce McCurdy

Chachi: Also, Jethro Tull is correct, the 3 point for a win, 1 point for a draw system has not made soccer more exciting. It actually introduces an incentive to play more conservatively and to sit on 1-0 leads when you get them because a win is so much more valuable than a draw. It is pretty hard to compare hockey and soccer though, given the massive differences in salary budgets between the perennial contenders and the mediocre middle group of teams in most leagues.

I couldn’t disagree more. The incentive to sit on a lead is the same as ever, as a win is the best possible result either way. The incentive to break a tie, however, is greatly enhanced.

In the NHL the incentive is to “sit on a tie”.

0
Chachi

treevojo:
Chachi,

Lol

I swear I didn’t read this till after.

U r thinking the right way.

Basketball is super high scoring, but I can’t watch an entire game until playoffs in the NBA or March Madness starts in the NCAA because I find the games are generally dull until then.

Darts is probably the best sport for people who love high scoring games. It has huge scores, absolutely no defense, light math and that awesome dude yelling out the scores!

0
treevojo

Chachi,

Lol

I swear I didn’t read this till after.

U r thinking the right way.

0
treevojo

Bruce Wayne: This is true.And the owners are right.What this season has taught me is that fans don’t care good hockey, they don’t care about offense, what they want is the illusion of competitiveness.Look how ecstatic Oiler fans are following this, frankly, boring team that plays a style tailor made to produce ties.“We” were happy after “winning” a 0-0 game.Think about that for a second.

There was nothing boring about watching Connor Mcdavid in that game.

He was electric pretty much every shift he touched the ice.

Sometimes the score doesn’t reflect the excitement one single player can bring to a game.

I don’t need him to get points every game to watch in awe of his talent.

The fact that the oilers are winning and are playoff bound is just a bonus to watching something special.

You should get out of your own way and try to enjoy it as well.

0
Chachi

Bruce Wayne: This is true.And the owners are right.What this season has taught me is that fans don’t care good hockey, they don’t care about offense, what they want is the illusion of competitiveness.Look how ecstatic Oiler fans are following this, frankly, boring team that plays a style tailor made to produce ties.“We” were happy after “winning” a 0-0 game.Think about that for a second.

I thought about it for a second. Some 0-0 games are exciting. Some 0-0 games are boring. Some 6-5 games are exciting. Some 6-5 games are just badly played hockey. An intellectual approach to determining whether a hockey game was exciting or not would not put much emphasis (if any at all) on the final score. After all, if winning doesn’t matter to intellectuals neither should the final score.

Also, Jethro Tull is correct, the 3 point for a win, 1 point for a draw system has not made soccer more exciting. It actually introduces an incentive to play more conservatively and to sit on 1-0 leads when you get them because a win is so much more valuable than a draw. It is pretty hard to compare hockey and soccer though, given the massive differences in salary budgets between the perennial contenders and the mediocre middle group of teams in most leagues.

0
Professor Q

Bruce McCurdy: Number “$” surely

I was going to say that as well, but was too slow.

0
Side

Bruce Wayne: This is true.And the owners are right.What this season has taught me is that fans don’t care good hockey, they don’t care about offense, what they want is the illusion of competitiveness.Look how ecstatic Oiler fans are following this, frankly, boring team that plays a style tailor made to produce ties.“We” were happy after “winning” a 0-0 game.Think about that for a second.

Have any examples or evidence for any of the above?

0
Side

spoiler:
Y’all know the present points system is in place because THE OWNERS want this system, right?And we all understand–right?–that there’s lots of incentive for them to keep the system the way it is, whereas the incentives for changing are distant and ephemeral.

It’s not going to change, so get over it.

It’s the OWNER point, not the Bettman point.

This quote by Bettman:

““The media debates it a lot, but we don’t get a lot of negative feedback from fans,” Bettman said “In fact, when you see the way the races played out and the importance of every game in the regular season, there are teams that wish they had a couple of points from October and November they would have liked to have down the stretch. The point system is working extraordinarily well.””

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/gary-bettman–no-need-to-change-nhl-standings-point-system-151940204.html

Reads a lot like classic Bettman, which goes something like “what are you talking about, the fans love it! *plugs ears ignoring fans who hate it* It’s working because I said so, you guys! Can’t you see!”

and not “what can I say, my hands are tied… it’s what the owners want” that you would suggest.

There can still be a point system, it just doesn’t have to be a crappy Bettman system.

0
Cassandra

spoiler:
Y’all know the present points system is in place because THE OWNERS want this system, right?And we all understand–right?–that there’s lots of incentive for them to keep the system the way it is, whereas the incentives for changing are distant and ephemeral.

It’s not going to change, so get over it.

It’s the OWNER point, not the Bettman point.

This is true. And the owners are right. What this season has taught me is that fans don’t care good hockey, they don’t care about offense, what they want is the illusion of competitiveness. Look how ecstatic Oiler fans are following this, frankly, boring team that plays a style tailor made to produce ties. “We” were happy after “winning” a 0-0 game. Think about that for a second.

0
Bruce McCurdy

spoiler:
Y’all know the present points system is in place because THE OWNERS want this system, right?And we all understand–right?–that there’s lots of incentive for them to keep the system the way it is, whereas the incentives for changing are distant and ephemeral.

It’s not going to change, so get over it.

It’s the OWNER point, not the Bettman point.

“Bettman” has always been a proxy for “the League” = “the owners”. He’s just the front man.

If I were an owner I would want a better fucking product. But that’s just me.

0
Bag of Pucks

spoiler:

It’s not going to change, so get over it.

Said every husband arguing with his wife ever.

0
spoiler

Y’all know the present points system is in place because THE OWNERS want this system, right? And we all understand–right?–that there’s lots of incentive for them to keep the system the way it is, whereas the incentives for changing are distant and ephemeral.

It’s not going to change, so get over it.

It’s the OWNER point, not the Bettman point.

0
Bruce McCurdy

Bruce Wayne: Second, all teams play for the win insofar as they are able. A hypothetical team .500 that drew every single game last year would finish with 38 points, one point out of relegation. Contrast that with the NHL in which the same team finishes first in the entire league.

DINGDINGDINGDING

0
Mustard Tiger

10 minutes of 3 on 3, followed by shootout, which will probably very rarely happen.
No loser points, just straight win-loss.
Just like every other major sport.
Any takers?

0
Bruce McCurdy

Shane:
Bohologo,

Now all I can think of is getting an Oilers sweater with ‘Cap Space’ on the back. I’d probably go broke though having to constantly re-sow the ever changing number.

Number “$” surely

0
Cassandra

Jethro Tull,

Did you know that in the premier league at one time 75% of penalty kicks were awarded to the home team (this is now done to 55%)? Home field advantage is real and demonstrable and it doesn’t have anything to do with the rules.

yIn any case, ou are mixing issues. The scoring system clearly incentivizes both scoring and winning. This is demonstrable on both rational terms and empirical terms.

That bottom feeders play conservatively against top teams has to do with the inherent tactical nature of the sport, and the inherent disadvantages they have in terms of roster construction. Nonetheless, within these constraints most soccer teams try and win, losing teams don’t get any more draws than winning teams or middling teams. What you have is a diversity of styles as dictated by the differing talent levels.

By contrast in hockey, every team plays the same. They start off playing not to lose waiting for the other team to make a mistake, and then only actively tries to score only once they fall behind in the game.

The scoring system explains these differences in behaviour.

0
Bruce McCurdy

Bruce Wayne:
Jethro Tull,

The example of soccer is a strong point in favour of changing the system.Going to the 3 point system has reduced the number of teams playing for a draw, and has increased scoring.

This is to be expected as the incentives of the scoring system clearly reward teams that try and score, while the NHL system clearly rewards teams that don’t try and score.

Hear hear. See: latest Oilers game for details.

News flash: 100% of games that are scoreless in regulation receive a bonus point. This statement does not apply to any given number of goals scored except zero.

Related: NHL coaches value low-event players and NO-event players.

0
Woodguy v2.0

Bag of Pucks,

Btw, this is the intrinsic flaw in relying on shot distance data alone as a proxy for shot quality. That data doesn’t factor in time to shoot, location and readiness of the goalie, proximity of defenders, etc. all of which factor into a shot’s quality.

From what I’ve read the biggest factor that we can’t account for with NHL data is puck movement before the shot.

Passes that make the goalie move from one side of the net to the other have a higher chance of leading to goals than any other passes.

Screens are another thing that isn’t accounted for and 2 on 1 ‘s too.

In terms of puck movement and “getting a great pass in a great spot” here’s the top 10 NHL 1st assist/60 players from 11/12-16/17

Player A160
SIDNEY.CROSBY 1.25
EVGENY.KUZNETSOV 1.10
TAYLOR.HALL 1.05
EVGENI.MALKIN 1.03
RYAN.GETZLAF 0.99
JOE.THORNTON 0.96
PATRICK.KANE 0.95
THOMAS.VANEK 0.95
BLAKE.WHEELER 0.93
DEREK.STEPAN 0.92

If you go from playing with one of these guys to not, its gonna hurt.

Also,

Peter Chiarelli traded two of those players.

0
Professor Q

hunter1909:
Nurse being expected to return this month is excellent news.

It’s always good to take it slow and cautious when Nursing such an injury, however.

0
Bag of Pucks

hunter1909: Eberle needs to skate. Eberle this season isn’t skating. He’s been floating.

One thing I’ve noticed about MacLellan is he’s 100% committed to killing the ‘fly-bys’ on both the forecheck and backcheck. He wants his Fs to stop/start and arrive at the puck with intent.

Eberle was the King of the Fly-Bys. I get it. Energy conservation. When I play hockey at my age now, I’m the King of the Fly-By too. But I don’t get paid $6mil per to play hockey ; )

0
fifthcartel

Benning is incredible.

I remember looking through Boston’s prospects and seeing him and thinking they have an interesting player. RHD with solid college stats? Always give those a chance.

Then I saw he (smartly) rejected Boston’s request to go back to school and became a FA and thought he might be interested in coming here being a St. Albert guy.

I posted something wondering if he could step in a la Petry and wondered if his skating was as good and what not.

I forget if he was a year behind or ahead Petry but that doesn’t matter now because he’s been amazing.

I think he toured Chicago and LA, maybe Vancouver, but thankfully he chose Edmonton. I think he’s very under the radar.

0
hunter1909

Bag of Pucks: The reality is Eberle may be taking shots of a lesser quality, and thus while the volume hasn’t appreciably declined, the results have.

Eberle needs to skate. Eberle this season isn’t skating. He’s been floating.

0
hunter1909

Nurse being expected to return this month is excellent news.

0
Jethro Tull

Bruce Wayne: You have this completely backwards, on each point.

First, to go to the original post, the home field advantage in soccer is amongst the biggest in pro sports, valued at about a half goal per game.Insofar as teams play for the draw on the road, this is why.

Second, all teams play for the win insofar as they are able.A hypothetical team .500 that drew every single game last year would finish with 38 points, one point out of relegation.Contrast that with the NHL in which the same team finishes first in the entire league.

So sure Leicester drew 12 out of 38 games, but that isn’t a significant number in soccer terms, everybody draws games. They also won 23 games, the most in the league.

By contrast, Newcastle was the last team relegated, two points behind Sunderland.To make up that difference they would have had to either turn three losses into ties or turn one loss into a win.Which do you think is easier?Crystal Palace and Bournemouth were free and clear of relegation despite losing more games than Sunderland precisely because they won more games.

The scoring system in soccer is a huge incentive to win games, and it quite clearly works if you watch the games.Both teams are trying to win the games because the only way to be successful.

If the NHL changed its scoring system to what soccer uses it would transform the game, at least in the regular season, overnight.

No I do not have it wrong. This is something i grew up with, and know extremely well, having played semi-professionally and trialed with top teams.

Drawing every third game IS significant. I also said that there is home field advantage, but i do not know why as the rules are the same for both teams, which you would know if you watched. The home team does not get preference for anything except changing rooms.

You are not reading what i have written. Middling to poor teams do not play to win against the top teams, they look to draw and to beat their peers. Staying in the top tier is the main objective for all but 5 teams due to the fiscal reasons i stated.

If you’d have grown up watching Arsenal play the offside trap to death and Man Utd and Spurs get continually fined for fielding farm teams against lesser opposition, then you may have a different perspective.

My main point is that a soccer based scoring system brings its own inherent problems with it and I’d much rather see one like the Rugby system which rewards offense and punished poor defense.

0
Bag of Pucks

Bohologo: Agree completely. I’m not saying it’s the best move, or even the right one, but we fall in love with players, and it’s hard to feel the same way about Cap Space, which doesn’t even look good on the back of your home town team’s sweater.

But it’s an asset, as you submit.

If you free up Eberle’s cap space, and subtract a contract from the 50 list, could you sign (hypothetically) both Oshie and Setoguchi for RW, and keep Jesse P down on the farm? Or other affordable pieces to play with the core?

Again, I’m not sure if it’s a good idea, but a credible GM has to have the conversation at least.

Man, I love this idea of a ‘Cap Space’ jersey.

The obvious question is what number do you put on the back?

0
commonfan29

Bruce McCurdy: frjohnk: This would make 3rd periods more wide open
Reg win 3 points, 0 points to looser
OT win 2 points, 0 points to looser
shootout win 1 point, 0 points to looser
No no no. Just make all games worth the same and the problem is solved. 3-0 for regulation results, 2-1 for gimmick time.

I don’t think you’ll ever see NHL coaches really open up tie games in the 3rd as long as a regulation loss is their worst-case scenario.

They’ll likely figure it’s better to go into OT and have a 50-50 shot at 2 points than to open it up in Regulation and expose themselves to a 50-50 shot of getting 0 points.

If all losses mean 0 points, you take that risk-reward calculation away from them.

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Bag of Pucks

classict: If he’s changed his game to not cheat for offense anymore wouldn’t we see a noticeable dip in his shot totals though? He’s still getting shots off he’s just not scoring on them.

Not necessarily. Cheating for offense may have given him an extra split second or two to get his shot off, or to get to a more advantageous spot or angle from which to shoot. A player can decline in shot quality while maintaining shot volume. I believe this is now known as ‘The Eakins Effect’ lol

Everyone talks about normalization in S% as if it’s a spin on a roulette wheel. The reality is Eberle may be taking shots of a lesser quality, and thus while the volume hasn’t appreciably declined, the results have.

Hockey players really buy into this meme btw. “If I just keep getting my shots, the worm will turn and they’ll start going in.” Maybe, but maybe you’ve changed where you’re taking the bulk of your shots, or maybe you’ve become predictable and the goalies have a book on you now, or maybe you had an offseason shot tutor and a new stick and now you’re no longer Angus Young with his SG. Now you’re trying to conjure up ‘Love Hungry Man’ with a Strat!

Btw, this is the intrinsic flaw in relying on shot distance data alone as a proxy for shot quality. That data doesn’t factor in time to shoot, quality of the incoming pass, location and readiness of the goalie, proximity of defenders, etc. all of which factor into a shot’s quality.

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Cassandra

Jethro Tull: Please re-read my post – in soccer, teams play for draws against better opposition, away from home.Soccer does not reward scoring if you are a weaker team.Staying in the EPL is the main thing for most teams because of TV money.Teams share out 8.3Billion GBP from TV deals.The figure in the next tier down is around 95% smaller.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/05/28/play-off-final-how-much-is-premier-league-promotion-really-worth/

Last year, Leicester won the EPL drawing 31% of their games.

https://www.premierleague.com/tables?co=1&se=19&mw=-1&ha=-1

However, a mediocre team can still make profits of 200Million GBP.

So where’s the incentive for winning?There’s just an incentive for staying mediocre, especially if you know you can’t compete with Chelsea, Man Utd, etc.

You have this completely backwards, on each point.

First, to go to the original post, the home field advantage in soccer is amongst the biggest in pro sports, valued at about a half goal per game. Insofar as teams play for the draw on the road, this is why.

Second, all teams play for the win insofar as they are able. A hypothetical team .500 that drew every single game last year would finish with 38 points, one point out of relegation. Contrast that with the NHL in which the same team finishes first in the entire league.

So sure Leicester drew 12 out of 38 games, but that isn’t a significant number in soccer terms, everybody draws games. They also won 23 games, the most in the league.

By contrast, Newcastle was the last team relegated, two points behind Sunderland. To make up that difference they would have had to either turn three losses into ties or turn one loss into a win. Which do you think is easier? Crystal Palace and Bournemouth were free and clear of relegation despite losing more games than Sunderland precisely because they won more games.

The scoring system in soccer is a huge incentive to win games, and it quite clearly works if you watch the games. Both teams are trying to win the games because the only way to be successful.

If the NHL changed its scoring system to what soccer uses it would transform the game, at least in the regular season, overnight.

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Lowetide

Professor Q:
Lowetide,

But if other teams do it too, shouldn’t it even out anyways (same game outcomes if occurring on same or different nights)?

Well other teams don’t have McDavid. I guess I am saying we are talking as if it isan Oilers thing and it might be a McDavid thing.

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npanciroli

John Chambers,

Visually it looks like the Oiler’s D don’t get caught much pinching etc. so maybe McLellan does have them play conservatively.

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John Chambers

Lowetide: Interesting article. It sounds like Travis thinks the Oilers have stumbled into it, I wonder (or have wondered) if McLellan runs McDavid heavy in the third period of games they trail. COuld be other things, too.

Yost posits an interesting point about the Oilers D perhaps jumping more into the play when trailing, thereby improving Corsi, shot- and goal-share.

I would consider all of Klefbom, Sekara, Russell, and perhaps Benning (and to some extent Nurse and Larsson) mobile defensemen, and believe there’s probably an opportunity to turn them loose a bit more.

That said, the Oilers D have done a much much better job of buttoning down defensively, so there is merit in them having taken a conservative approach to attacking.

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Professor Q

Lowetide,

But if other teams do it too, shouldn’t it even out anyways (same game outcomes if occurring on same or different nights)?

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Woodguy v2.0

russ99,

Woodguy, your post yesterday was a balanced breath of fresh air.

Thanks Russ.

That means a lot.

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Woodguy v2.0

Lloyd B.: I did read it.Very good and yes he is achieving it.

All I’m saying is I’m glad they are spoon feeding him rather than throwing him in the deep end and keeping him there.

I agree with that. Giving it to him as he can handle it.

There’s nothing wrong with giving a guy more when he shows he can do it.

Werenski is 19 years old and playing 1sts in CBJ and doing ok with Jones.

Benning’s results are better than Werenski’s imo and their minutes aren’t *that* different, especially when Benning is with Sekera.

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Lowetide

Jethro Tull:
http://www.tsn.ca/talent/oilers-seem-comfortable-chasing-the-game-1.667731

Oilers riding score effects to the playoffs?

Interesting article. It sounds like Travis thinks the Oilers have stumbled into it, I wonder (or have wondered) if McLellan runs McDavid heavy in the third period of games they trail. COuld be other things, too.

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Jethro Tull

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/oilers-seem-comfortable-chasing-the-game-1.667731

Oilers riding score effects to the playoffs?

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Woodguy v2.0

Bruce McCurdy: Great interview, Jon and Darcy.

Thanks Brucey

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Professor Q

Lowetide:
Zach Laing

‏@zjlaing

.@FriedgeHNIC’s “educated guess” is the Oilers could be looking for a 2nd, as they need to repay BOS a 2nd for Chiarelli. @OilersNow

—

As I have mentioned before, I think a third is more realistic.

Can they not appeal said 2nd? I think it’s an asinine ruling that the NHL should just give up on. Lou got away with it during the same time frame, so why does Chia need to pay for the NHL’s stupidity?

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NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker)

Jethro Tull: 4. Learns valuable lesson the Oilers spent 10yrs learning.
5. Remembers he is also constrained by the salary cap.

Oilers spent 10 years on expensive veterans? The problem was the opposite–no good veterans, giving young players too much responsibility too soon.

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npanciroli

Lowetide,

This is for Davidson right?

Seems like bad asset management if Davidson goes for picks.

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Lowetide

Zach Laing
??‍?
‏@zjlaing

.@FriedgeHNIC’s “educated guess” is the Oilers could be looking for a 2nd, as they need to repay BOS a 2nd for Chiarelli. @OilersNow

—

As I have mentioned before, I think a third is more realistic.

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classict

Bag of Pucks: My concerns with the ‘regress to the meat’ wishful thinking is I suspect his offensive downturn is partly due to the fact that he’s been forced to be more defensively responsible under MacLellan. Unfortunately, cheating for O and playing on the wrong side of the puck had become a big part of Eberle’s game under previous regimes.

Absolutely, he could return to the mean, but are you happy with that if that means him also returning to giving up as much or more the other way?

If he’s changed his game to not cheat for offense anymore wouldn’t we see a noticeable dip in his shot totals though? He’s still getting shots off he’s just not scoring on them.

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