Clarkenstein:
What if you left Lucic unprotected and kept Davidson? Is that possible or does an NTC meanyou have to protect the player? If not, who is going to take Lucic with that contract?Or even Eberle for that matter for the same reasons.

I floated the possibility of not protecting Eberle in the expansion draft a couple weeks back. As you would expect, it’s not a popular suggestion in these parts. But it may have some legs.

The crux is whether he’s currently untradeable or not. If, as was rumoured, Chia shopped him and every GM in the league shied away because they don’t perceive the player as a value contract, then Vegas may be the only market willing to take on the contract (as presumably they’ll be desperate for scoring and/or a potential ‘name players’ as gate attractions). Conversely, if he still has trade value and it’s just a case of Chiarelli waiting on the right asset(s) coming back, then by all means, he should be protected. Because we’re not privy to that information, it should thus be a considered possibility until we learn otherwise.

The hysteria this causes in the Oilogosphere is always the misperception that you’re losing Eberle (and his production) for nothing. But the reality is, if this season is the trend, you’re overpaying for that production. Yes, you lose the player, but you gain valuable cap space. And that is a significant asset.

And, if in fact, his contract is seen as a millstone within the GM community, you free up a valuable slot on your protected list by exposing a player unlikely to be claimed.

Eberle’s salary is only tenable if he’s deemed essential to the core. Is he now? I’m not sure, but I would suggest one of the key criterion in being deemed part of the F core should be, are you a legitimate outscorer against the toughs? Those are the players who should get the big money. Paying complimentary players a significant portion of your cap is likely untenable longterm.

Jethro Tull: I suggested the same, citing the growing inmportance of cap flexibility as my main reason.

Also, McPhee has also stated he wouldn’t be taking on anyone’s lemon contracts.

All depends:Do we bet that Ebs regresses to the meat, or do we say “what have you done for me lately?”

My concerns with the ‘regress to the meat’ wishful thinking is I suspect his offensive downturn is partly due to the fact that he’s been forced to be more defensively responsible under MacLellan. Unfortunately, cheating for O and playing on the wrong side of the puck had become a big part of Eberle’s game under previous regimes.

Absolutely, he could return to the mean, but are you happy with that if that means him also returning to giving up as much or more the other way?

npanciroli:
Bag of Pucks,

Really interesting idea and I prefer losing a forward to any defence.

I think it’s hard for us due to our lack of RW depth. Without any adds you roll next year with:

Puljujarvi
Pitlick
Slepyshev
Kassian

as your natural RWs.

I would think part of letting him go assumes Chiarelli would re-allocate some of that cap space to a replacement. That said, I don’t hate that depth chart. There’s a lot of potential value contracts there if Puli, Pitlick and Sleppy all elevate and show some sustain.

In terms of replacing Eberle’s production, here’s some players with similar goal totals this season: Mantha, Rust, Connor Brown, Rieder, Connolly, Stempniak, Versteeg.

Lots of variation in that list: drafted and developed internally, picked off the waiver wire, reclamation projects, free agents, etc. Most importantly, none of them costing $6mil per.

In short, if Eberle’s current production is the new normal, you can find players to replace that output in any number of directions.

Ducey: Chia was no doubt shopping Eberle for his defense fix. But to say that because he didn’t trade him means he has no value is likely inaccurate. Chia just couldn’t get the top end guy he was looking for in return.

Yes, I acknowledged both of these possibilities in my post. And said, if in fact, he still has trade cache: they should protect him. We simply don’t have the intel on that one way or the other.

classict: If he’s changed his game to not cheat for offense anymore wouldn’t we see a noticeable dip in his shot totals though? He’s still getting shots off he’s just not scoring on them.

Not necessarily. Cheating for offense may have given him an extra split second or two to get his shot off, or to get to a more advantageous spot or angle from which to shoot. A player can decline in shot quality while maintaining shot volume. I believe this is now known as ‘The Eakins Effect’ lol

Everyone talks about normalization in S% as if it’s a spin on a roulette wheel. The reality is Eberle may be taking shots of a lesser quality, and thus while the volume hasn’t appreciably declined, the results have.

Hockey players really buy into this meme btw. “If I just keep getting my shots, the worm will turn and they’ll start going in.” Maybe, but maybe you’ve changed where you’re taking the bulk of your shots, or maybe you’ve become predictable and the goalies have a book on you now, or maybe you had an offseason shot tutor and a new stick and now you’re no longer Angus Young with his SG. Now you’re trying to conjure up ‘Love Hungry Man’ with a Strat!

Btw, this is the intrinsic flaw in relying on shot distance data alone as a proxy for shot quality. That data doesn’t factor in time to shoot, quality of the incoming pass, location and readiness of the goalie, proximity of defenders, etc. all of which factor into a shot’s quality.

Bohologo: Agree completely. I’m not saying it’s the best move, or even the right one, but we fall in love with players, and it’s hard to feel the same way about Cap Space, which doesn’t even look good on the back of your home town team’s sweater.

But it’s an asset, as you submit.

If you free up Eberle’s cap space, and subtract a contract from the 50 list, could you sign (hypothetically) both Oshie and Setoguchi for RW, and keep Jesse P down on the farm? Or other affordable pieces to play with the core?

Again, I’m not sure if it’s a good idea, but a credible GM has to have the conversation at least.

Man, I love this idea of a ‘Cap Space’ jersey.

The obvious question is what number do you put on the back?

spoiler:

It’s not going to change, so get over it.

Said every husband arguing with his wife ever.