It looked offside to me too, but the 1999 Buffalo Sabres have a sadder story, and that’s for sure. The penalty kill sucked and blew, that’s your lede, from me to you. Amen.
OH LONESOME ME, YEAR OVER YEAR
- Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
- Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
- Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
- Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
- Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
- Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
- Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
- Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
- Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
- Oilers in February 2017: 5-6-0, goal differential -3
- Oilers after 63, 2015-16: 22-34-7, goal differential -41
- Oilers after 63, 2016-17: 33-22-8, goal differential +15
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY
- On the road to:
Nashville, Carolina, Montreal(Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0) - At home to:
Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia(Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0) - On the road to:
Chicago, Tampa Bay, Florida, Washington, Nashville, St. Louis (Expected: 2-3-1) (Actual: 2-3-0) - Overall expected result: 4-5-3, 11 points in 12 games
- Overall current results: 5-6-0, 10 points in 11 games
We are coming in hot, but this is the month reasonable expected, and you should not lose your mind with the recent trifling. Here is the deal: If Edmonton can’t run this up to 94 points from here (20 points in 19 games), then something is wrong somewhere. The schedule in March is far easier, lots of home games, and non-playoff teams will be giving it away like motel matches. No sir. This Edmonton Oilers team has real flaws, but also spectacular strengths, too. Suspect we see a trade or two this week, and a tightening of a playoff spot as well. This is the good stuff! There are no guarantees in sports!
DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT
- Sekera—Russell went 16-10 in 18:21 together, including 8-1 with Nuge in 6:25. Went 9-3 against Austin Watson—Colin Wilson—Calle Jarnkrok, went 2-1 in over six minutes against the Johansen line. I thought Sekera was brilliant, Russell less so with the puck on his stick—and he was poor on the PK.
- Nurse—Benning went 10-7 in 10:28 together, but they didn’t play as much as one would hope for a third pairing. McLellan backed off the usage on this pairing after Nurse got walked on the Colin Wilson goal. Benning was also in photo on the Arvidsson goal.
- Klefbom—Larsson went 12-11 in 12:57 together, Klefbom getting big PP time and Larsson not getting a lot of usage first game back. Went 9-6 in about nine minutes with McDavid, Went 6-6 in seven minutes against Arvidsson—Johansen—Forsberg, a trio that can fairly be described as a royal pain in the ass. Klefbom is an emerging talent, beyond what we thought he might be someday based on numbers. You know who had him pegged? Red Line Report.
- Cam Talbot was not his best last night. Stopped 23 of 28, .821.
- Numbers via NHL.com, HockeyStats.ca and NaturalStatTrick.
FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT
- Lucic—Nuge—Eberle went 13-6 together, both wingers on the line scored and I thought Nuge earned an assist on the Eberle goal. These three men should be getting more done at 5×5. That said, they went 14-5 against Ekholm—Subban and 11-3 against Austin Watson—Colin Wilson—Calle Jarnkrok. Just need to cash 5×5, is all.
- Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl went 15-8, including 12-7 against Josi—Ellis and 10-6 against Arvidsson—Johansen—Forsberg. Leon looks slow and tired to me, I wonder if he is nursing an injury. During a PP, 97 sent him the puck and he did nothing with it—Leon has high skill in that situation. Something is up.
- Caggiula—Letestu—Kassian went 8-9 last night, strange evening for the line. Went 10-6 against Fiala—Fisher—Smith and they had the puck going in a good direction. Letestu scored on the power play and both wingers had some good looks. Nine shots for the line, although some of those came on the 5×4.
- Khaira—Hendricks—Pakarinen went 5-8 together. Went against 4-7 Neal—Fiddler—Harry Z. Just one shot on goal for the line, and of course Hendricks is part of a PK that resembles the French in World War Two.
STANDINGS
A good team drives this home by the Ides of March, and I suspect the Oilers will do just that thing. They have a 10-point cushion on the Los Angeles Kings, who have two games in hand. The Flames are on actual fire, and credit where due they are driving hard and could overtake Edmonton based on their current run—but can they stay hot? I don’t think so. If you are an Oilers fan, still have to feel your team is in a very good spot. Can they blow it? Possible. However, is McDavid is McDavid and Talbot is Talbot, suspect Todd McLellan gets this thing over the line.
RED LINE REPORT ON KLEFBOM
-
Red Line Report: Klefbom is a real Red Line favorite. He’s certainly the most overlooked of the top prospects, but is the best pure passer of the bunch, and his skating ranks only behind Murphy. He already makes pro style passes — crisp and with touch — and excels at breaking the trap with tremendous stretch passes through the neutral zone, showing great vision. He was also the natural leader on Sweden’s national under-18 team. All this comes wrapped in a 6-3, 196-pound package, and Klefbom has really stepped up the physical aspect of his game over the last 12 months. At Red Line, we believe he might ultimately become the best all-around balance of offensive upside and physical strength in this year’s class.
https://twitter.com/JackieDee16/status/836223087238496256
The Tom Gilbert trade was crazy, giving up a two-way blue for a defensive defender, but the Oilers were an addled organization back then. The Justin Schultz trade was the right thing to do, as the young defender needed a re-set and I am pleased to see him doing so well in Pittsburgh.
This deadline is different from recent seasons because Edmonton can buy for the playoffs. We all hope for another Patrick Maroon addition, but the Oilers could use some help if the price is right. For me, I am fine if PC holds back the water on deals, because this club still needs to build a system (especially at forward).
I got a couple of emails last night about the PK and faceoffs, but for me Anton Lander and Benoit Pouliot are solid penalty-kill options. As for faceoffs, sure, bring in another center. That said, faceoff success relies heavily on the wingers and positioning (remember the Dellow photo series?) so I think adding a faceoff man for that one thing is perhaps shortsighted. I will stick with my shopping list for Peter Chiarelli.
PETER CHIARELLI’S SHOPPING LIST AT THE DEADLINE
- Acquire Kevin Shattenkirk as a rental if the price isn’t too dear
- Acquire a two-way center who can play also play wing
- Acquire a backup goalie
- Get real value for Brandon Davidson at the deadline, by procuring a forward under control and worth protecting (may happen after season)
- Laying groundwork for deal with Golden Knights that could be tied into point No. 4
- Grab a mittful of 2017 draft picks
It goes without saying that the general manager must serve two (or more) masters this trade deadline: Adding for the immediate, adding for the future, subtracting from the cap moving forward. Yesterday I suggested a trade that received a lot of feedback, wanted to revisit that one today:
- Jordan Eberle and Brandon Davidson to the NY Islanders for C-R Ryan Strome and G Jaroslav Halak. The money doesn’t quite work (and EDM would need a sweetener) but the idea does on a couple of levels. Halak’s contract ($4.5 million) expires summer 2018, just as Connor McDavid’s big contract kicks in. Eberle’s deal expires the following year, in 2019. Is Strome a suitable replacement for Eberle? Or could he successfully center a skill line, allowing Leon to play RW? Source
The sweetener might be a second-round pick, or Ryan Pulock or Josh Ho-Sang, but for me this trade makes all kinds of sense. The Oilers add Strome, who they have under control and can sign for far less than Eberle’s number, as an Eberle replacement. They also rid themselves of Eberle’s high cap hit before the McDavid deal kicks in. Halak as an expensive backup for one season is a reasonable compromise. If you grab Ho-Sang (as an example) for Davidson, then the club has added a player who is ineligible for the expansion draft—and give yourself another potential winger for the future. If you believe the Oilers are giving up Eberle without getting equal value, I can understand it. Eberle has posted 62 points per 82 games in his career, Strome just 40. Then again, since 2013 Jordan Eberle’s most common linemates are RNH, Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot and Connor McDavid. Ryan Strome? His most common linemates are Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, John Tavares and Mikhail Grabovski. I don’t think I am suggesting Bill Guerin for Anson Carter on this one. I know you like Jordan Eberle as a player, I like him too—honestly, he would seem the logical one to spend his career in Edmonton.
There is a risk here, Strome may not emerge as a consistent 50-point winger. He will be making far less than $6M a year, and for me, that makes this worth the risk. Save the centers, deal the wings.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A lot of trade deadline talk, as well as discussion of last night’s game. Scheduled to appear:
- Kent Wilson, Flames Nation. Johnny Hockey is ruining the winter of our content!
- Scott Burnside, ESPN. The trade market is hot right as we head to the deadline!
- Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Offside call, deadline, PK.
- Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue plus The SuperFan. About last night, what does this team need?
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
spoiler,
How would HE know we’re in the wrong thread?
Dammit man! We’re in the wrong thread, lol.
spoiler,
What! Nilsson always gets traded for a 5th. Happened 3 times in his career. We only got a 5th for him last year. Don’t want to pay a 4th. LOL
Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty · 3h3 hours ago
If Oilers want to retrieve G Anders Nilsson from Buff to back up Talbot may cost 4th rounder. MacT scouted Buff last 2 gms.
Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty · 5h5 hours ago
So Edm in on Hanzal and Boyle but both are out. Still looking for veteran C with some offence to help them win a draw.
I’m not sure that Chia gets this much done.
Will do
Woodguy v2.0,
Please do!
Are you on twitter?
I tweet both every morning.
Will add that here too if it’s OK
Can we please stop with Nuge/Bergeron comparisons. Nuges best offensive seasons are Bergerons worst.
–hudson–,
You make a good point
Holy shat. I can’t believe that it was 10 years ago today that Edmonton traded Smyth.
I think Lucic will be okay with Draisaitl at centre and a big fast forechecker/shooter/cycler on RW.
Lucic just arrives late to the party so he has to play with two guys, one who can drive the puck to the party, and another who can get the party started until Lucic arrives fashionably late.
I get what you are saying. I think every coach is going to make decisions that people are not going to agree with (there has even been clamor from Toronto from time to time on the lineup that Babcock ices) and I agree that McLellan has made some decisions that do not appear to make sense from the outside looking in, but I am not sure a different coach would have got much more out of this team. Still lots of holes to fill. That being said, if they manage to miss the playoffs I will be at the front of the line to buy a pitchfork.
Bruce Wayne,
Putting Lucic anywhere near skill destroys that skill. You can’t get rid of him, but you have to keep him far away from the top two lines.
*****************************************************************
Since Dallas Eakins and his pet players Will Acton and Brad Hunt departed, you and I are on the same page.
Lest anyone is mistaken, word around the NHL is echoing just what the plebeian fans have been saying regarding the Looch:
1. Stopping and Starting
2. Keeping up with the Pace of Play
Like Ryan Whitney and Mark Fayne, this will not get better for Lucic.
I still **cling** to the fantasy that during playoff hockey the pace of play grinds down to a point where Looch can at least be involved in some plays….
I have been advocating Poo on McDavid’s line all season…..again, with the acknowledgement he has not earned it.
Drai is a Centre. Full Stop.
You gave me my west coast fix today.
No east coast?
I agree with the “too much/little” thing.
Not sure about DET, but he took a group of mostly marginal players last year and got them to win the possession battle (like Dennis mentioned)
Now that he has some finishing ability on the roster the corsis are turning into goals.
He has one of the thinnest Dcorps in the league and has them in playoffs today.
That’s pretty damn good and I’m a big “Dcorps get you to the playoffs” guy.
I think most of the non-McDavid improvement this year is due to the Dcorps and McLellan can’t seem to play 29 without 97 despite them not scoring more together than apart and I know he knows that.
Dammit!
Thought I was first.
I agree San Jose doesn’t seem to miss him, but I think it is because at the NHL level coaches get way too much credit when things go well and way too much blame when things go badly.
How much better is Detroit this year if Babcock is coaching them?
I never knew that “pug” was a group of pucks.
*the more you know rainbow*
SJS doesn’t seem to miss him.
I think there is an argument that he deploys his players sub-optimally.
Same bitch that SJS bloggers had for years.
I think it might be real.
He doesn’t need to move Heaven and Earth.
He needs to move Garrison and Coburn.
I’m going the other way with my hockey consumption.
I’ve been muting the braying asses on twitter so I don’t seek them out on TV.
Chachi,
Love it
I think they already have to protect 4-4-1. Enstrom has a NMC. Doubtful they trade for another D until that is figured out (or unless one is moving out)
When you can lock up a 36 year old utility player for 2 years, you should just give up a prospect and do it.
I believe former Colu GM Doug MacLean now owns the word “bizarre.” Check him out some day and just watch how much he uses a word that isn’t altogether common.
He’d rather jump off the CN tower without a parachute than trade for Burrows and give him a 2 year deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nnl2kRsyVk
What does Super Dave think?
Sorry for late answer on TO and EDM. I was just interviewed for The Candid Frame, a podcast on photography. Interview will air in two weeks. I rambled too much as I was nervous and had never been interviewed in this way before (an hour of talking). Now I have a greater appreciation for Darcy, Bruce, Dennis et al on LT’s show. You guys do it well. Ha ha.
What I meant to say was “fuck the Leafs”
On the one hand, having McLellan in place is nice because he has the proven track record of success, so the Oilers don’t have to wonder if the players are getting good coaching as they might have with Eakins or Krueger. In that way he provides stability for Chia to focus on other areas.
On the other hand, I think it comes down to 2 things.
1) Can he keep pushing the team to improve? For instance, if our goals against are down this year, can he push them down again next year or push up our goals for. The pp is also much better this year.
2) His relationship with McDavid. If McDavid is onboard then Todd is the coach, I couldn’t imagine Chia taking him away. However if McLellan wears out his welcome, he will be gone. I was thinking a few days ago this may explain why he has Drai on the same line, even though it would be more effective to play them apart. Drai gives Connor a better chance at winning the Art Ross, perhaps triggering bonus money? (I’m unsure of what his bonus structure is, maybe it won’t matter)
The seat belts in my cars are made only of Genuine Saskatchewan Sealskin.
Agreed
Finally proof that Super Dave Osborne posts here. I knew it!
Has anyone shared this beauty of a highlight from our gracious host’s former favourite Condor?
https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/ahl-player-fakes-out-opponents-on-gorgeous-goal-video-034307264.html#more-id
Give ’em hell, Winquist.
Jonathan Toews finally woke up, 18 points in his last 10 games. He had 5 points the other night against Minnesota so that’s inflating the ppg but still a nice turnaround.
Forsberg and Gaudreau are the other NHL 3 stars of the week.
Nuge only has 4 points in the last 10 games. Would be nice to see him have a renaissance like Toews and Bergeron.
Sail on, BoP!
PC should move Russell for a third a grab James Wisniewski from Chicago AHL affiliate.
Fuck the leafs!
Philly is selling, Streit would be a nice stop gap. Does a Nuge or Ebs pack get you Couturier?
If it’s doesn’t land a Duchene that is..
If we deal for Sharp, will they just thrown in Hemsky for the Hell of it.
RE: Toronto vs Edmonton prospects
If one looks at expansion exempt players, its Toronto hands down.
Toronto has 3 rookies who are/will be impact players.
Oilers have McDavid and hope for JP.
Just look at the AHL rosters for Leafs http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0039912017.html and compare that with the Oilers farm team. Froese was traded today, so the top 10 in points for the Marlies are guys under 23.
If one expands that list to include Draisaitl, Klefbom, Larsson, then the scales tip towards the Oilers.
In regards to picks, Toronto has enough assets in draft picks over the next few years that they can afford to rent players, Oilers not so much.
Three Thoughts:
1. I do not believe Eberly is going anywhere… although he seems to be having a bit of an off year (as is Nuge) he / they are both highly skilled and should come around.
2. Lucic is still putting some points on the board, but small interns of his billing coming in. IMO he brings down the second line because he is to slow nowadays. I would trade him if it were possible for someone who can skate with the two mentioned above or even place Kassian on the left side with them.
3. I do not believe McLellan is the guy that will get it done here in Edmonton. I will not delve to deep into my reasoning for lack of time today, but will gladly post my reasonings more so in a later post (Maybe LT will run a coaches post so we can have a free-for-all), anyway, he could not get it done in SJ and the team imo is far under performing because of the systems, PP, PK and heavy handed approach that he runs.
Ducey,
He’s cleared waivers an estimated 15 times.
Every time he clears waivers a blog loses its URL. True story.
John Chambers,
Agree with this – fringe guys like Kapanen, Brown, Hyman, Leivo, Leipsic, Percy, Carrick – every team has these guys – some make it and have 10 year careers, most don’t.
The Leafs have Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, JVR in their young core of forwards.
Oilers have McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Eberle and Puljujarvi. Pretty even.
On D Leafs have Riley, Gardiner and Zaitsev; Oilers have Klefbom, Larsson and Nurse.
Andersen vs Talbot in net.
Its pretty even – records before this year are equally shitty.
I have no problem with the Leafs – the more Canadian teams in the playoffs, the better (except the Dys).
If you are going to include Bear & Jones for EDM you should probably add Andrew Nielsen for TOR. Same draft year as those two but playing in the AHL and is 3rd in rookie scoring (10th overall) for D (11g 21a 32pts) in 54 games. A big kid who can fight. Skating is mid pack but long range passing is solid.
ALso my kid’s hockey hero so I’m totally biased…. but you could reasonably argue that those numbers in the AHL as a kid who is still eligible to be playing in the WHL is in fact more impressive than what Bear/Jones have done in a lesser league.
Teemu Pulkkinen traded from MIN to ARI for a pug of pucks
LOL
Just ask him!
Babcock has had a better record than McLellan in 2 out of the last 8 years.
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,
I only really care about young impact players, regardless of whether they’re currently in the NHL or not. Evaluating 2nd round draft picks and other fringe players to me is irrelevant.
I suppose I had interpreted what you’re saying as the Leafs’ trajectory as a team, forecasting future years based on their current roster and prospect pool. In that sense I feel they’re more limited via a vis the Oilers purely based on the lack of high-end defensive prospects, and all the Zack Hymans in the world won’t alleviate that problem.
But Babcock >> McLellan.
You asked me about prospects and then named a bunch of players that I would not call prospects.
RNH and Kadri? What?
I am talking about:
Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Brown, Hyman, and then Zaitsev is older but is new to the NHL,(and then to a lesser extent Leipsic, Percy, Carrick)
vs.
Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Nurse, Benning, Caggiula, Reinhart, Bear, Jones
Draisaitil and Nylander are same draft year and Drai ahead but arguably they are established NHLers now. Would you still call Drai a prospect?
Of course McDavid > Matthews and the Oilers’ D pipeline looks better than the Leafs’
I guess it depends on what you define as a prospect, but I think the Leafs’ group is pretty strong.
I’m so conflicted.
I would love to see Toronto go 0-3 in their next 3 games vs the pacific and be on the outside looking in for playoffs.
For Edmonton’s sake I guess I should want them to go 3-0.
It’s tough living in Atlantic Canada with a fan ratio of 45% Montreal and 45% Toronto and 10% misc.