CONDORS BY THE NUMBERS

by Lowetide

Estimated time on ice is imperfect, but a necessary metric because the real information is not available publicly. Why is it so important? Imagine watching a baseball game and seeing the man at the plate with a stats line of .354, 13 HR and 38 RBIs. Those are impressive numbers, but are not a completely clear picture. We can imagine a fleet leadoff man, with 101 runs scored over 154 games, or a fantastic platoon LF who gets the righty at-bats (fewer) in the tandem. Without at-bats, the signal remains out of sync. The actual at-bat total for those boxcars? 192, from rookie Willie McCovey in 1959.

So, even though they are estimates, the TOI totals are so important that, in my opinion, we can find real value from an educated guess. Eric Rodgers has been doing these estimates for several years now, and he is kind enough to share them with us a few times each year.

TOP FORWARD PROSPECTS

All three of these men are among my Top 10 prospects from the winter list, and all three should spend over 100 games in the NHL (and in at least one case substantially more). Rodgers estimates of a year ago had Slepyshev at 1.91/60 (this is in all disciplines) and Khaira at 2.05. That list, along with the 2014-15 run, is here.

Jesse Puljujarvi’s number is the highest for anyone 20 and under in the last three seasons, eclipsing Kyle Platzer’s 2.02/60 as a rookie pro.

SECOND TIER FORWARD PROSPECTS

The second tier are all running at about the same pace, but this is somewhat deceiving. Joey Laleggia as been a LW since the new year and is smoking the offense. I would guess he is close to 2.00/60 or more since January 1, but that is a guess. In my opinion Laleggia is the most promising of these prospect forwards at this time, and it is also fair to say we are unlikely to see any of them enjoy an extended NHL career.

LOWER LEVEL FORWARD PROSPECTS

Russell has been the one free-agent addition from college who hasn’t been able to find his way, and we did identify skating as being something he needed to improve. We will see in year two. Sallinen has played in the KHL and Sm-Liiga, so his inability to score probably tells the tale. Braden Christoffer is an energy player, but the boxcars need to be better. I think it is fair to say these three players are not trending in a direction that implies future NHL employment. Farm Workers teaches us that college men should be given extra time, but Eric’s estimates have him getting plenty of time to show his abilities.

DEFENSE

I have sorted this by points-per-60 (in all disciplines) and the results are what we would expect to see. Also interesting is the EV goals for-against number, which suggests Griffin Reinhart and Dillon Simpson have been on the right side of the score often.

It seems clear that Matt Benning passed this entire group this season, and I do think that Oesterle, Reinhart and Simpson have a chance to play in the NHL. Betker is an interesting option as well, but we won’t know for some time.

BEST PROSPECT TOTALS (FORWARDS) 2014-17

  1. Anton Lander (2014-15) 2.74
  2. Anton Slepyshev (2016-17) 2.66
  3. Iiro Pakarinen (2014-15) 2.62
  4. Jesse Puljujarvi (2016-17) 2.31
  5. Tyler Pitlick (2014-15) 2.27
  6. Tyler Pitlick (2015-16) 2.13
  7. Jujhar Khaira (2015-16) 2.05
  8. Kyle Platzer (2015-16) 2.02

Question: Does the Puljujarvi number encourage you? I am generally encouraged by the overall total, but remain uncertain about his offensive outer marker. Is he a complementary offensive player? That is the same question we have been asking about Leon Draisaitl, and if both men land in that category, the Oilers will have exactly one forward who can push the river.

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Pouzar

I like the Conor Sheary route for McD.
Give him some speed and hockey IQ. He is a generational talent and those guys can usually make good players great ones. I wouldn’t go big game fishing for expensive established wingers at this point. I also agree JP may not be the guy either. He seems to need to have the puck on his stick and likes to control play.

russ99

I have some stock in the multiple river pusher idea, but at the current upward curve of the team, its much more important to find the sniper for Connor’s wing (and I’m not at all convinced it will be Puljujarvi) and clear salary in Fayne, Pouliot and one of Eberle/RNH to be able to pay Connor, Leon and that sniper.

The other thing I take from this chart is again how weak we are at forward in the system, something Chia will need to address

Johnny

It’s not accurate, but I guess it’s repeatable.

Johnny

Points/60 in the AHL? That stat looks pretty blurry considering we are estimating time on ice…

rickithebear

GMB3: Isn’t his p/60 with Ladd and Wheeler still better than RNH’s though?

He performed the same as little with Ladd and Wheeler.
Nough said right there!

rickithebear

Goalies: min 27gm
Wins
Pt from gm: W + OT
Sv%
GAA
SO

Top 5 in all
Bobrovsky: #1W; 2 PTFG; 3SV%; 2GAA; 4SO
Dubnyk: 1W; 4PTFG; 1SV%; 3GAA; 5SO
Top 10 in All
Holt by: 3W; 3PTFG; 4SV%; 1GAA; 8SO
Talbot: 4W; 1PTFG; 8SV%; 10GAA; 5SO

The 4 goalies top 10 in all 5.

npanciroli

I still don’t buy this 2 river pusher thing.

Depth, balance and lines that click are more important to me.

stush18

Bling,

+1

Good comparison. Rantanen/Nylander is good comps methinks

GMB3

Professor Q: Technically, RNH has 0 p/60 with Ladd and Wheeler. So yes, it’s better.

Well Q you got me there.

Bling

One good comp for Puljujarvi, at least numbers-wise, might be William Nylander.

Both have May birthdays and played in the AHL at age 18. Both are playing in the AHL in the second half of the season (Nylander came over from Sweden).

Nylander – 14G/18A/32 P in 36 GP (0.89)
Puljujarvi – 9G/12A/21 P in 26 GP (0.81)

Nylander goals/game = 0.47
Puljujarvi goals/game = 0.35

Those numbers were even closer prior to JP’s mini-slump.

Nylander is a legit first-line talent at age 20.

I think JP will become a river-pusher. Doing what he is doing at his age in the AHL is no easy feat, even with Anton Lander.

GMB3

Bank Shot: Why does everyone always have to be injured when they are slumping?

I think Draisaitl just plays a style that looks really bad/lazy when he’s not on top of his game. All the little soft passes and such look terrible when they aren’t connecting.

I’ve never really seen Draisaitl as having a plus shot. It’s ok, but not a strength of his game IMO.

Puljujarvi seems to have more zip on his shots then most of the current Oilers forwards.

I think its stickhandling that will hold him back from ever being a true river pusher. I think he’ll be a good forward for a lot of years. He might not be a guy that ever carries a line though.

Really? I’ve thought from what I saw of him from WJC, his limited time in the NHL, and the couple Bakersfield game’s I’ve watched online that stickhandling was one of his strong suits. Deft touch with that huge reach.

Maybe just saw him good when I was watching I suppose

Professor Q

GMB3: Isn’t his p/60 with Ladd and Wheeler still better than RNH’s though?

Technically, RNH has 0 p/60 with Ladd and Wheeler. So yes, it’s better.

GMB3

rickithebear: 14-15 to 15-16
Little PvP with Ladd wheeler
1.03 EVG/60
2.03 EVP/60

14-5 to 15-16
Schiefle 1st/2nd with Ladd wheeler
0.78 EVG/60
2.23 EVP/60

16-17
Schiefle with Ehlers and 2nd best 18yr old of modern era
1.03 EVG/60
3.03 EVP/60

3 seasons worth of data says
More Ehlers and Laine!

Isn’t his p/60 with Ladd and Wheeler still better than RNH’s though?

Bank Shot

Centre of attention: I’ve noticed this too. He has a fantastic wrist shot when healthy and lately it’s been lacking some of that heat. Maybe thats also why it seems like he’s forcing passes that aren’t there, he knows he can’t shoot properly right now so he defers.

To me, Draisaitl should shoot more when he’s on Connors wing . He has an underrated shot when healthy. He needs to use it more. He’s learning from Eberle damnit, getting too picky.

People compare Leon to Kopitar. Nah. Leon is a left shot Jeff Carter if everything works out perfectly.

Why does everyone always have to be injured when they are slumping?

I think Draisaitl just plays a style that looks really bad/lazy when he’s not on top of his game. All the little soft passes and such look terrible when they aren’t connecting.

I’ve never really seen Draisaitl as having a plus shot. It’s ok, but not a strength of his game IMO.

Puljujarvi seems to have more zip on his shots then most of the current Oilers forwards.

I think its stickhandling that will hold him back from ever being a true river pusher. I think he’ll be a good forward for a lot of years. He might not be a guy that ever carries a line though.

Soup Fascist

I am going to have to do with a hard “pass” on Carly Agro’s glasses.

Takes too much focus off of the wonderfully tanned shoulders.

Oh, I almost forgot. KICK ROCKS, fLAMES.

gogliano

frjohnk:
“Question: Does the Puljujarvi number encourage you? I am generally encouraged by the overall total, but remain uncertain about his offensive outer marker. Is he a complementary offensive player? That is the same question we have been asking about Leon Draisaitl, and if both men land in that category, the Oilers will have exactly one forward who can push the river.”

Other than the WJC’s of last year, JP has not really had eye popping numbers anywhere.
His NHLE’s from Finland are less than Barkov but more than Rantanen.But Rantanen scored better in the AHL last year than JP has this year, so there is that.Rantanen has scored 30 points with a shitty Avs team this year. Rantanen looks to be a very good complimentary player who could become a river pusher but he has much track to go.

We dont have any river pushers.

McDavid pushes oceans.

Draisaitl is one step below river pusher and our best bet to become one.

JP is pushing streams.So young and very far away from pushing rivers.

I like Rantanen as a tracking comp. But at JP’s current age, Rantanen had yet to step onto AHL/NHL ice. How much difference does half a year make?

I think it’s easy to underestimate how many unknowns are baked into that question. It’s still very hard to project how an 18 year old kid will transform into a 23 old man. Maybe he bloomed early. Maybe late. We’ve gotten better at answering those kinds of questions but there is still a lot we don’t know.

I’d say JP has a lot more variance in terms of expected outcomes than a lot of the other picks. He’s still one of the youngest players to play in the AHL (second youngest?). He’s still very clearly far from the player who he’ll become.

JD_Wry

And hopefully this is the start of a new streak for them.

Yak Efron:
The PDO streak ends!

Nailer Yakumoto

The PDO streak ends!

Chachi

JDï™:
Chachi,

Turning down the temperature on the ice plant, to gather support for a new arena.

Bettman must be in town.

JD_Wry

Chachi,

Turning down the temperature on the ice plant, to gather support for a new arena.

Chachi

The ice in Calgary appears to be awful. What’s the excuse for that? I thought all they are equipped to host at the Saddledome these days is hockey, white supremacist conventions and ass sniffing contests. What gives?

Centre of attention

Professor Q: Leon slewfooted and then jumped on the head of more than two people? Don’t think so. The fact Tkatchuk did it once and got away with it is despicable. The fact that he’s done it more than twice and gotten away with all but one is outright indefensible.

Tkachuk didn’t jump on the head of two people. He slew foot Davidson, and face washed him / pushed his head back against the ice but he didn’t jump on his head lol. It was pretty filthy for sure, though.

But a three of four stride run on someone from behind is just as dirty as a slew foot. Full stop.

Tkachuk does do that crap more often. Definitely a more greasy player in general, in fact its not even close when it comes to the quantity of dirty play betweent Tkachuck and Drai. I didn’t mean to compare their entire criminal records 😛

But as for individual acts, what Leon did was nasty.

Chachi

Georges:
LAK has 39-year-old Iginla on their first line.

Also on the first line is 35-year-old Gaborik. The lovely Dustin Brown gets a shot too.

They seem to stick with some guy named Kopitar though.

Last year with Lucic on his LW, this Kopitar’s 5v5 GF60 was at 3.76. Without Lucic, it was 2.14.

This year, Kopitar’s 5v5 GF60 is 1.89. That’s his career low.

What do you guys think of this Kopitar? Any good?

I think LA should get rid of Kopitar. He’s obviously the problem. While they are cleaning house they should get rid of Doughty too!

Professor Q

Centre of attention: That run by Leon on Manning from behind during that game against Philly was as filthy as anything I’ve seen Tkachuk do.

No complaints from me. Sometimes you gotta make some room out there, its a contact sport and whatnot.

Leon slewfooted and then jumped on the head of more than two people? Don’t think so. The fact Tkatchuk did it once and got away with it is despicable. The fact that he’s done it more than twice and gotten away with all but one is outright indefensible.

Centre of attention

That pinch by Brodie was such a terrible decision. 4-2 Boston.

Woot~!

treevojo

I hope that puts Calgary to bed for the night

JD_Wry

Baahstahn!

sliderule

Things to consider when comparing JP to Rantanen and Draisaitl.

Rantanen and Leon have October birthdays while JP has a May birthdate about 6 months younger at same point of career.

Leon was 18 months older than JP in his time in AHL

Rantanen started season early in AHL when teams are looser than JP is seeing as stretch drive for teams ramps intensity.

Maybe it’s not much but 6 months of growing at 18 can be a big factor.

Tkachuk is another guy with older draft birthday.

Centre of attention

PhrankLee: I’m with you there. I really love that he is beginning to really stand up for himself out there too. He is throwing hes weight around more effectively, nearing man strength.

That run by Leon on Manning from behind during that game against Philly was as filthy as any individual act I’ve seen Tkachuk do.

No complaints from me. Sometimes you gotta make some room out there, its a contact sport and whatnot. 🙂

Chachi

Oh my was there ever some classic Jultzing going on in Philadelphia tonight.Too many minutes for ol’ Justin and he reverted back to his old self for one night at least.Yikes.

PhrankLee

treevojo: Doesn’t bother me.

Woodguy2.0 on the other hand is fucking bullshit!

Fuck you Boolijie

treevojo

OriginalPouzar:
Ryan,

I take your feedback, I’ve considered it and I respectful reject it. I’ve used the Pouzar handle on other platforms dating back to 2005 and prefer to keep it.

Not sure whey anyone would care?

Doesn’t bother me.

Woodguy2.0 on the other hand is fucking bullshit!

OriginalPouzar

Ryan,

I take your feedback, I’ve considered it and I respectful reject it. I’ve used the Pouzar handle on other platforms dating back to 2005 and prefer to keep it.

Not sure whey anyone would care?

OriginalPouzar

GMB3:
Backes got hurt against the Flames tonight, looked bad.

Must be fine – he just scored a few minutes ago.

rickithebear

Ryan: Honest feedback here.

Assuming you’re not actually Jaroslav Pouzar, dude just create a new handle.

Imagine if we had “OriginalWoodguy” or “OriginalGmoney” posting here.

Original x is not the same!

Pouzar
knew who he was saying!

Origionalpouzar is not Pouzar

But I give him the title.
He is the most OrigionalPozer err Pouzar

PhrankLee

Centre of attention: I’ve noticed this too. He has a fantastic wrist shot when healthy and lately it’s been lacking some of that heat. Maybe thats also why it seems like he’s forcing passes that aren’t there, he knows he can’t shoot properly right now so he defers.

To me, Draisaitl should shoot more when he’s on Connors wing. He has an underrated shot when healthy. He needs to use it more. He’s learning from Eberle damnit, getting too picky.

People compare Leon to Kopitar. Nah. Leon is a left shot Jeff Carter if everything works out perfectly.

I’m with you there. I really love that he is beginning to really stand up for himself out there too. He is throwing hes weight around more effectively, nearing man strength.

treevojo

Khudobin and Johnson must have a side bet on who can let in the worse goal tonight!

Johnny skid

Ryan: Imagine if we had “OriginalWoodguy” or “OriginalGmoney” posting here.

that would please me greatly.

Centre of attention

PhrankLee:
I think Leon has a tender wing. His shots have been almost swept, for lack of a better word,at the net recently instead of his regular heavy snap shot.

I’ve noticed this too. He has a fantastic wrist shot when healthy and lately it’s been lacking some of that heat. Maybe thats also why it seems like he’s forcing passes that aren’t there, he knows he can’t shoot properly right now so he defers.

To me, Draisaitl should shoot more when he’s on Connors wing . He has an underrated shot when healthy. He needs to use it more. He’s learning from Eberle damnit, getting too picky.

People compare Leon to Kopitar. Nah. Leon is a left shot Jeff Carter if everything works out perfectly.

PhrankLee

GMB3,

He’s back on the bench.

Hamilton, ffs.

rickithebear

GMB3: Ironically I thought speed was supposed to be one of JP’s biggest strengths and one of Tkachuks downfalls from numerous scouting reports.. yet at the NHL level from what I’ve seen Tkachuks speed played a lot better than JP’s, and that his skating is fine.

We may have been right by picking Drai over Bennett, and time will tell if JP is a better pick than Tkachuk, but early returns aren’t looking promising.

RNH started his career as an offensive dynamo yet has been surpassed by Mark Schiefele, maybe JP will do the same.

14-15 to 15-16
Little PvP with Ladd wheeler
1.03 EVG/60
2.03 EVP/60

14-5 to 15-16
Schiefle 1st/2nd with Ladd wheeler
0.78 EVG/60
2.23 EVP/60

16-17
Schiefle with Ehlers and 2nd best 18yr old of modern era
1.03 EVG/60
3.03 EVP/60

3 seasons worth of data says
More Ehlers and Laine!

PhrankLee

I think Leon has a tender wing. His shots have been almost swept, for lack of a better word, at the net recently instead of his regular heavy snap shot.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar:
I was going to ask what Leon’s P/60 were in his short stint last year but them remembered that he had only a couple of points in 6 games – and then proceeded to tear up the NHL as soon as he was called up.

What does that mean?That AHL production/non-production is not indicative of NHL production/non-production? AHL production may be a product of linemates?

Honest feedback here.

Assuming you’re not actually Jaroslav Pouzar, dude just create a new handle.

Imagine if we had “OriginalWoodguy” or “OriginalGmoney” posting here.

LMHF#1

I would never want to have to hope an Oiler gets sucker punched.

Very very glad they didn’t take Tkachuk. He’ll get his.

GMB3

Backes got hurt against the Flames tonight, looked bad.

GMB3

The thing about JP is he has so much time to grow and improve as a player. So many good NHLers weren’t even in the league at age 18. Datsyuk wasn’t exactly burning up the RSL for a few years post draft, and it took a few years for him to establish himself as an impact player in the NHL.

Lots of road left!

Realistically, I’d expect both Drai and McD to improve next year, and I suspect Eberle and RNH will regress to the mean (if either/both are still around). Lucic will probably have an improved overall year, our young D will continue to grow and mature. If BP sticks around for another year, he won’t perform any worse, and I wouldn’t be surpsied to see Slepy or Caggiula push for a spot in the middle six.

I think the makeup of this roster is better than we give it credit for. I hope drai gets a bridge deal so we can see what we have instead of spending 6+ like we did with Ebs and RNH.

John Chambers

At age 20 Anthony Mantha was a .5 ppg player in the A
At age 21 he was a .75 ppg player.

Now 22, 6’5″ RW Anthony Mantha is a +12, 2nd in scoring on the Red Wings with 50 14-19-33.

At 18 Puljjujarvi is .9 ppg in the A.

JP is the best right-wing of his age group. An elite offensive driver? We’ll see. But a powerhouse right-wing certain to be a top-line player? That’s my bet.

GMB3

In the Grease:
Sorry if this has been said ad nauseum, have to selfishly ask again anyway, but anyone think selecting Matthew Tkachuk might have been a good idea? It’s been a thorny issue for me all season…. I’m still hopeful for Puljujarvi – hope the Sundin comparison verbal comes true – but a rambunctions a-hole whose 44 points would put him third in scoring on the Oilers? Damn it.

Ironically I thought speed was supposed to be one of JP’s biggest strengths and one of Tkachuks downfalls from numerous scouting reports.. yet at the NHL level from what I’ve seen Tkachuks speed played a lot better than JP’s, and that his skating is fine.

We may have been right by picking Drai over Bennett, and time will tell if JP is a better pick than Tkachuk, but early returns aren’t looking promising.

RNH started his career as an offensive dynamo yet has been surpassed by Mark Schiefele, maybe JP will do the same.