MACHINE HEAD

by Lowetide

From time to time, one of our younger members will ask me a question about the 1980’s. I do my best to describe it, but great hockey moments are best witnessed and shared and pressed into our collective memory. I asked the elders about the greats, and even saw Gordie Howe play, but not the Howe of youth. It seems to me that this team, should it become a great one, will have two rabid fanbases: The elders, who are thrilled to watch greatness the second time around, and the youngers, who fell in love with the team somewhere along the line and stubbornly stood on the edge of a dream for a decade or longer. Last night reminded me of the 1980’s, but it was also new and fresh and I look forward to those memories to press from this team, starting now. I have been blessed. I wish the same for you.

  PICTURES OF HOME, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2016: 8-8-0, goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 3-2-1, goal differential +4
  • Oilers after 70, 2015-16: 27-36-7, goal differential -38
  • Oilers after 70, 2016-17: 37-24-9, goal differential +20

The Last time Edmonton won 37, Craig MacTavish was thinking he had been too long at the fair. The team is on track for 43 wins now, the most since 1988. It was a fun time at Rogers Place last night, and the year over year looks damned fabulous. We’re on to Abbotsford.

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Detroit, NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, Montreal (Expected: 2-2-0) (Actual 1-2-1)
  • At home to: Dallas, Boston, Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 3-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: Anaheim, Colorado (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-5-1, 15 points in 13 games
  • Current results: 3-2-1, 7 points in 6 games

This is about what we expected from March, the Oilers are now on track with what we projected. The goals for has gone crazy lately, and that’s a good thing for sure. The Edmonton Oilers are a fun team to watch and we are probably going to have playoff games involving this group in April. Feels so good.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson looked good to my eye, with the understanding that it was not your ordinary 2017 game. I thought the pairing was especially effective at 5×5, going 10-11 in 12:39. Went 6-4 against Stafford-Krejci-Pastrnak, the pairing finished +1 on a night when Edmonton outscored the opposition 4-1 at evens.
  • Klefbom made another Serge Savard move last night, where he waited for the Bruins rusher to get close to him and then deked him to go on his merry way. He reminds me so much of Savard. Seriously.
  • Sejera-Russell were chasing too much but they also faced very tough opposition (almost 10 total 5×5 minutes against the Bergeron and Krejci lines combined). They went 11-15 in 11:58 and it looked even more chaotic in real time. Went 4-7 against Marchand-Bergeron-Backes in 6 minutes and 7-6 against Pastrnak.
  • Nurse-Benning had an adventure, but Benning was +2 and Nurse +3 with two assists on the night. Suspect we may see Mr. Gryba in on Saturday night. Pairing went 10-20 in 12:40 while managing to go 7-1 with McDavid. Fabulous rush by Nurse on the Slepyshev goal, really effective in puck transporting. Pairing went 4-11 against Belesky-Spooner-Vatrano but 6-3 against the Krecji line. A weird night for the pairing, Nurse had many good moments, young Benning seemed in a hurry to get to the wrong spot. Bruins are a devilish team when they are on.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 32 of 36, .889.
  • Numbers via Natural Stat TrickHockeystats.ca and NHL.com. Check out further brilliance from Oilers Nerd Alert below. The guy kicks ass.

1LINE

  • The McDavid line went 11-12 Corsi for (Leon and CMD, Maroon spent extended time in the sin bin).
  • The trio had seven shots, and three goals. That is unusual.
  • McDavid went 10-8 against the Krejci line,  in 9:25 head to head. If a player faces the opposition center 60 percent of his 5×5 time, chances are someone is line matching or both men are happy enough with the match.
  • Chara was a bull against 97, going 7-3 and thwarting a few sorties with that blasted wingspan.
  • Anton Slepyshev scored while playing on this line Patrick Maroon in the penalty box.
  • All three regular members of this line have 24 goals on the season. That makes 72 goals, or a goal-per-game plus a little. GAG line? Already taken, but few of us remember that fantastic Rangers trio.
  • McDavid’s recent surge has him No. 2 in the NHL among forwards (750+ minutes) in 5×5/60 scoring.

2LINE

  • Two goals for this line and they played tough minutes effectively. Eight shots on goal and two goals, there are 45 goals this season from the trio.
  • Nuge line played 10:58 together and went 10-15. Nuge was 0-10 with Darnell Nurse at 5×5/60, that is hard to do. The line went (Nuge) 7-15 against the Marchand-Bergeron-Backes line, toughest assignment on the board and it was their responsibility for almost 10 minutes last night. Lordy.

3LINE

  • David Desharnais started a fire on the 3line and the result is increased offensive opportunities at both ends of the ice.
  • Benoit Pouliot has come alive, and Zack Kassian is driving too.
  • Wonderful to see, the chances against are going to be a concern come playoff time. DD reminds me of Derek Roy, in style and results.
  • Trio went 5-9 Corsi 5×5 in about nine minutes. They went 5-5 against the Spooner line, satisfactory performance.

4LINE

  • We talked earlier this week about having options on the 4line who can step up and contribute. We saw it in live action last night, as Anton Slepyshev took a few spins with the McDavid trio. There is a dramatic element to his game and he didn’t look out of place with 97. I hope we get to see him there again soon.
  • The line went 6-10 on the evening at 5×5, including 2-7 against the Spooner line.

STANDINGS

This is a good table, although the Blues and Kings won last night, too. Edmonton is up on LAK by eight points, with 12 to play. If the Oilers grab a point per game, and that seems reasonable, they would finish with 95 points. The Kings would need to go 10-1-1 to beat Edmonton. This is the bleeding out period, some proud players in those Kings uniforms but they may have left it too late. The Flames play the Stars tonight, so drink in the current standings.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. It is going to be a fun morning, very cool guests:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Canada’s NHL team is ripping it up, and the Leafs are doing well, too!
  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Boston’s most prominent Oilers blogger is in our fair city, we will ask him about his Edmonton experience so far.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Is Matt’s NCAA bracket still intact? Plus, when do you give Talbot a rest?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Oilers close to clinching a playoff spot, how far can they fly?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

TODAY AT 5

Condors have a big weekend ahead, at 5 this afternoon I will have a post about the AHL men who have made enough progress this season to push ahead of the field. Think Joey Legs.

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stevezie

Georges: I have a very, very simple reply. All goals count.
I’m bullish on Lucic. I think he’s a great player. Let’s compare notes at the end of the season.

I think this is quite fair,

Shane

hunter1909: Fantastic.

What’s your death march number?

99

godot10

Georges: So many folks with entrenched and grumpy positions on this blog. Cheering for the team must have been rough. I’ll raise a glass when you retire the hashtag. Might require a smaller sample than you think.

It is a prediction more than a position. How can a “prediction” be entrenched when we are still in the early innings.

A team with a generational player and a pretty good defense and a mediocre coach will likely do pretty well…i.e. be a perennial playoff team. How many cups will a mediocre coach win with a generational player? That is really the question my prediction addresses. My prediction is not many.
I basically “lose” when McLellan wins one (but then the Oilers win…so from my point of view, the prediction is win-win)…but Bylsma lived off of his “one” for a long time. And Tortorella. And Hitchcock.

Chachi

Georges: You know who else has struggled at 5v5 this year? Anze Kopitar. Lucic’s most common 5v5 linemate last year. Together, their GF60 was 3.76. That pace is historically good.

Kopitar’s most common left wings this season have been Dustin Brown and Dwight King. Kopitar’s GF60 this season is 1.95. Kopitar misses Lucic, maybe?

Lucic’s most common linemate this season has been Jordan Eberle. With Eberle, Lucic’s GF60 is 1.77. When Lucic has played with CMD without Eberle, his GF60 (according to SuperWOWY) has been 3.42.

The Lucic-Eberle pairing has been no great shakes but TMac sticks with it. I don’t think he’s doing it to help Lucic’s numbers. I think he wants those two to figure it out and he’s determined to have them figure it out. It’s a smart play, because if Lucic and Eberle figure out how to play together and create, this team would beat any team in the West.

Yes, and it looks like they may be figuring it out now.

Georges

godot10: Small sample size.Mediocrity takes time to reveal itself. #MediocrityIsADifferentKindOfHell

So many folks with entrenched and grumpy positions on this blog. Cheering for the team must have been rough. I’ll raise a glass when you retire the hashtag. Might require a smaller sample than you think.

Georges

Chachi: Lucic has struggled 5v5. He has been better lately. He’s been better than expected on the power play for most of the season. Anyone who argues that he does nothing to contribute to the success of the Oilers this year does not know what they are talking about or, in the case of some posters who obviously know better, are being intellectually dishonest. The former I can ignore, the latter deserve to be mocked.

You know who else has struggled at 5v5 this year? Anze Kopitar. Lucic’s most common 5v5 linemate last year. Together, their GF60 was 3.76. That pace is historically good.

Kopitar’s most common left wings this season have been Dustin Brown and Dwight King. Kopitar’s GF60 this season is 1.95. Kopitar misses Lucic, maybe?

Lucic’s most common linemate this season has been Jordan Eberle. With Eberle, Lucic’s GF60 is 1.77. When Lucic has played with CMD without Eberle, his GF60 (according to SuperWOWY) has been 3.42.

The Lucic-Eberle pairing has been no great shakes but TMac sticks with it. I don’t think he’s doing it to help Lucic’s numbers. I think he wants those two to figure it out and he’s determined to have them figure it out. It’s a smart play, because if Lucic and Eberle figure out how to play together and create, this team would beat any team in the West.

Chachi

godot10: Small sample size.Mediocrity takes time to reveal itself. #MediocrityIsADifferentKindOfHell

Ralph Krueger needed less than 48 games to prove he was less than mediocre.

Georges

stevezie:
Georges,

1. It’s a fine list of good players, but I don’t think I’d call Jason Williams a “great” player. Or Krejci. It’s definitely an elite heavy list, and if you were trying to build a case that Lucic is “great” this would be evidence, but don’t think he is often the best player on his line and that separates him from most of the list. Your list certainly favours good players on good teams. Is that fair to say?

2/3/4 Yep, he has been great on the pp this year. Of course, it’s always hard to separate “the Mcdavid pp is great becausue Lucic is on it” from “Lucic has good numbers because he is on a great Mcdavid run pp”, but can we fairly say it is a little of both? I’m glad he is producing on the pp.
His even strength struggles have been quite dramatic. Nine more points is a lot in today’s NHL.

5. I think I may have been unclear. I’m not saying Lucic hasn’t helped the team, I’m saying his great seasons before this one haven’t helped the team. The game against the Canucks is not going to be impacted by anything Looch did with the Kings or Bruins.

Which seems pretty objectively accurate to me.

1. My approach is simple. Great forwards if and only if great offensive stats. Trying to come up with reasons why Krejci, Williams, and Lucic don’t belong in the great forward list even though they’re in the great offensive stats list requires effort. If you can come up with another numbers-based argument against, great. You saved me effort I have no wish to make. As far as best player on his line, Lucic ranks one place higher on P1 (goals and first assists) than on total points.

2/3/4. “His even strength struggles have been quite dramatic. Nine more points is a lot in today’s NHL.” Fine, I’ll take a closer look at the stats of that statement. I’ll do my very, very best to not stack the deck.

5. This is right thinking. Whatever the player has done in the past does not help the team he plays for in the present. But it does set expectations. And I’ve pointed out that Lucic’s net production for the Oilers is exactly what we should have expected knowing what we know about Lucic. So, in total, Lucic is giving to his team this season exactly what he has given to his past teams on average. But you’re not happy with that. You’re separating his total production into PP and 5v5 and saying his PP is great but that could really be due to CMD, we don’t know, but his 5v5 stinks and that’s all on Lucic. I have a very, very simple reply. All goals count.

I’m bullish on Lucic. I think he’s a great player. Let’s compare notes at the end of the season.

godot10

sliderule:
Maroon is getting the same offensive boost from Mcdavid that BJ Macdonald got from Gretzky.

I hope Chia realizes this .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWwOJlOI1nU

godot10

dustrock:
Do you guys think McLellan will get any Adams votes?

I realize Narrative of Redemption favors Torts, very heavily.

And Narrative of City of Lost Souls favors Babcock, very heavily.

And we have McDavid.

But at some point I think we look at the turnaround, the lack of any extended slumps, and the general pushback the Oilers have had this year, and we have to give McLellan some credit.

Right Godot?

Small sample size. Mediocrity takes time to reveal itself. #MediocrityIsADifferentKindOfHell

Chachi

Georges: 1. Please name the other good as opposed to great players on that list so I have some reference.

2. He has struggled to score .59 points per game. His career rate coming into the season was .61.

3. That 5v5 P/60 number that LT shows, let’s give it some context. Lucic is at 1.17. If he scores about 9 more points, he’s at 1.50. Doesn’t look that great but the gap between where he is and where we’d like him to be, you can call it struggling, I’ll call it luck. And if he had some luck at 5v5, he’d be having a great scoring year instead of a good scoring year.

4. Lucic is at 18th in the league in PP P/60. The Oilers PP is 4th in the league. I would love it if he continues to let pucks bounce off him and into the net. It seems to be a winning strategy. Luck evens out for him, I guess.

5. Hasn’t helped the Oilers this season one bit? Very Bruce like comment. Objective: “(of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.”

Lucic has struggled 5v5. He has been better lately. He’s been better than expected on the power play for most of the season. Anyone who argues that he does nothing to contribute to the success of the Oilers this year does not know what they are talking about or, in the case of some posters who obviously know better, are being intellectually dishonest. The former I can ignore, the latter deserve to be mocked.

stevezie

Georges,

1. It’s a fine list of good players, but I don’t think I’d call Jason Williams a “great” player. Or Krejci. It’s definitely an elite heavy list, and if you were trying to build a case that Lucic is “great” this would be evidence, but don’t think he is often the best player on his line and that separates him from most of the list. Your list certainly favours good players on good teams. Is that fair to say?

2/3/4 Yep, he has been great on the pp this year. Of course, it’s always hard to separate “the Mcdavid pp is great becausue Lucic is on it” from “Lucic has good numbers because he is on a great Mcdavid run pp”, but can we fairly say it is a little of both? I’m glad he is producing on the pp.
His even strength struggles have been quite dramatic. Nine more points is a lot in today’s NHL.

5. I think I may have been unclear. I’m not saying Lucic hasn’t helped the team, I’m saying his great seasons before this one haven’t helped the team. The game against the Canucks is not going to be impacted by anything Looch did with the Kings or Bruins.

Which seems pretty objectively accurate to me.

Georges

stevezie:
Georges,

Great is pushing itbut he has definitely been good. I don’t think anyone is denying he has had a fine career, and is a unique talent.

I like that objective argument fine if you’re defending the signing, or trying to explain why you think he’ll be better in the future. I myself expect him to bounce back at least a little.

That said, it’s only fair to point out that how good he has been in season’s past hasn’t helped the Oilers this season one bit. He has struggled.

1. Please name the other good as opposed to great players on that list so I have some reference.

2. He has struggled to score .59 points per game. His career rate coming into the season was .61.

3. That 5v5 P/60 number that LT shows, let’s give it some context. Lucic is at 1.17. If he scores about 9 more points, he’s at 1.50. Doesn’t look that great but the gap between where he is and where we’d like him to be, you can call it struggling, I’ll call it luck. And if he had some luck at 5v5, he’d be having a great scoring year instead of a good scoring year.

4. Lucic is at 18th in the league in PP P/60. The Oilers PP is 4th in the league. I would love it if he continues to let pucks bounce off him and into the net. It seems to be a winning strategy. Luck evens out for him, I guess.

5. Hasn’t helped the Oilers this season one bit? Very Bruce like comment. Objective: “(of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.”

Turning Tikkanese

hunter1909,

My memory fails me (happens a lot lately). I remember wavering between a death march number of 91 to 101 points or thereabouts. Can you remind me what my number was? I plan to celebrate heartily the day we pass my number!

This years version of deathmarch is too much fun. Previous years, too depressing.;)

Thanks for checking.

stevezie

Georges,

Great is pushing it but he has definitely been good. I don’t think anyone is denying he has had a fine career, and is a unique talent.

I like that objective argument fine if you’re defending the signing, or trying to explain why you think he’ll be better in the future. I myself expect him to bounce back at least a little.

That said, it’s only fair to point out that how good he has been in season’s past hasn’t helped the Oilers this season one bit. He has struggled.

spoiler

bendelson: Yes, insane.
Bow-wow.

Someone should send this to Snoop and Bow Wow.

Melvis

Apropos of nothing, any Life in the Bush of Ghosts might include the original Bush. Dominic Troiano, Whitey Glann, Prakash John et al. Any punning around Yonge Street Patty are verboten.

I knew them not, intimately or casually, other than taking in a couple of club dates on occasion. Good band in 1970.

The principles (all Toronto boys), later played with Alice Cooper, James Gand, Guess Who, Lou Reed and others.

Pouzar

On days like this I say Keep Calm and listen to Richie!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkKBcEV75WE&t=287s

Georges

Bruce Wayne: Co-signed.

This team would be better with Hall and Demers versus Lucic and Larsson.Nothing that has happened this year provides evidence against this claim.Indeed, it deepens the tragedy, the improvement in the other parts of the roster (Maroon, Kassian, Benning, Sekera, healthy Klefbom, healthy McDavid, no Korpikoski, Letestu, Draisatl a year older, Nurse not over his head) means that if you could only undo the trade you’d have a Stanley Cup contender.

Unless someone wants to attribute all of those improvements to Larsson, which is absurd on its face.

Conversely, the major disappointments of the season are Lucic, RNH, and Eberle, and subtracting Lucic and adding Hall solves all three problems together.

I thought you worked alone.

I can’t believe you co-signed something and particularly THAT.

On defensemen, please consult ricki. He speaks strangely but he knows of what he speaks.

Edit: It’s really nice to see you working on a day after an Oilers win by the way. Good adjustment.

Pescador

npanciroli:
I really want to see the full list of point predictions, is this possible hunter?

I don’t!
I might have guessed low, and now I feel shame.

gogliano

Larrson is cheaper than Demers and is 4.5 years younger — he’s a kid who’ll hit his peak with the core.

The cost was very dear but I have no doubt that Larrson is more valuable to this team than Demers, both today and going forward.

Georges

stevezie: This seems to be a key part of the pro-Looch argument. I agree you can’t quantify it. That is exactly the problem.

That I’m not saying you are wrong- Lucic may well be helping in ways we can’t see or understand. I’m just saying that we can’t tell the difference between “his leadership is a major factor” and “his leadership is not a factor at all”. They’d look the exact same from the outside. One of the reasons why I prefer objective arguments is we can get somewhere with them. Does the mere presence of Lucic help? No one who says they know the answer can be taken seriously.

Personally I have a bias against paying high prices for things I can’t be sure about. But you may be right.

(This assumes I read you right and by “you can’t quantify” you mean it’s one of those things that can’t be quantified but is definitely real. Those things are absolutely out there.)

Here’s another part of the pro-Looch argument. Milan Lucic is a great hockey player.

Here’s an objective argument you may or may not prefer.

Most 5v5 points for forwards since 2010-11, regular season + playoffs (data taken from corsica yesterday):

Player, GP, Pts

Kane, 568, 360
Crosby, 460, 322
Toews, 571, 297
Benn, 510, 293
Getzlaf, 534, 288
Tavares, 522, 287
Krejci, 536, 286
Kessel, 557, 286
Kopitar, 578, 285
Seguin, 544, 280
Perry, 554, 280
LUCIC, 588, 276
Malkin, 459, 274
Stamkos, 474, 272
Marchand, 569, 272
Ovechkin, 568, 272
Williams, 598, 269
Thornton, 587, 267
Pavelski, 586, 263
H. Sedin, 547, 262

JD_Wry

stevezie: unfamiliar with The fabulous Marvin

Me too. You can spot the fake name 1.6 kms away, but not the story behind it.

Crazy. Bow wow.

stevezie

Bank Shot: I think you can’t quantify what Lucic brings to the Oilers in terms of being confident on the ice having a bully at your back.

This seems to be a key part of the pro-Looch argument. I agree you can’t quantify it. That is exactly the problem.

That I’m not saying you are wrong- Lucic may well be helping in ways we can’t see or understand. I’m just saying that we can’t tell the difference between “his leadership is a major factor” and “his leadership is not a factor at all”. They’d look the exact same from the outside. One of the reasons why I prefer objective arguments is we can get somewhere with them. Does the mere presence of Lucic help? No one who says they know the answer can be taken seriously.

Personally I have a bias against paying high prices for things I can’t be sure about. But you may be right.

(This assumes I read you right and by “you can’t quantify” you mean it’s one of those things that can’t be quantified but is definitely real. Those things are absolutely out there.)

stevezie

bendelson,

I was actually unfamiliar with The fabulous Marvin before today.

i have always been an ardent defender of Gavin and the boys, however, and before I get any shit for that I’ll say anyone whose taste perfectly aligns with the cool kid critics is probably faking.

Also I think teenage me was right: now that we’re a few decades removed from the deluge post-grunge politics and fads and can just listen to the songs, Bush has some good tunes.

Oh and I wish more games ended 7-4.

PhrankLee

I like DD but think we need to aim higher this summer.

bendelson
who

Mantis: Stan Rogers is an interesting suggestion.Myself, I’d like to throw Supertramp into the mix.

I wasn’t a fan of the Davidson for DD trade (up-and-coming D for a small 30 year old C who could walk at the end of the season?), but I must say the results thus far have looked good.If we can resign him for something reasonable, does this become a win?I’m not certain what a typical 3rd line C earns, but on top of this being an important contract for him due to his age, I’m imagining he might want a raise if he keeps performing as he has in this (albeit limited) period.He’s currently earning 3.5mm, and I wouldn’t want to pay him any more than that (less would be ideal!)Term would likely be an issue as well. With McDavid and Drai contracts looming, we have to tread softly.

Would you do 3 years x 4mm if that’s what it took?If it’s too rich, offer a one year at 4mmbecause he’ll be off the books for McDavid’s contract?Or let him walk?(I’d like 3×3 but I don’t see that happening).

If we can keep DD (without overpaying), I’ll be able to make my peace with this deal.

I like BD.I know he wasn’t quite living up to the expectations we had based on last years performance, which might be mitigated somewhat by the injury he suffered.Combine this with the congestion in the Leftorium, and we can conclude he wasn’t a vital piece.I like him, but he’s tradeable.This does not excuse for one second that they appear to have traded him so they won’t ‘lose him in the draft for nothing’.That line of reasoning drives me to drink.(Dammit, out of scotch!Well, here comes the ‘driving’ part…)

So what happens if DD walks?And Vegas takes (for example) an unprotected Khaira?(Or insert your own private fear…)We lose BD anyway, and Khaira as well.

Who’s to say we couldn’t have swung a deal (which looks like it had potential based on the verbal – McPhee is open for business), or failing that, they might have had their eye on someone else?The worst that happens is we lose Davidson.Well, we made sure that happened regardless, (plus more!) didn’t we?

I feel this move was done for entirely the wrong reasons, and am really hoping for a happy ending in spite of it.

That said, I love the progress, I love the team, I love the thought of playoff hockey after so long a drought,and I love reading this blog in the spring without poor LT having to find an interesting angle on the draft for the 150th consecutive time, and yet somehow still pulling it off.

Bring on the Dys!

This trade WILL NOT have a happy ending if they resign DD. The best possible ending is for him to help us win a playoff round or two and then walk in the summer. We don’t need to sign any more mediocre veterans to multi year deals

JD_Wry
bendelson

stevezie,

Thought I might hear from you yesterday after referencing the legendary Marvin Pontiac…

stevezie

bendelson: Am I the only one that hears Bush (x?) when Machine Head is referenced

Nope!

stevezie

Bruce Wayne: Score effects definitely came into play.At one point in the second period the Oilers were almost doubling the Bruins in shots.

Has someone studied score effects to try and determine why it occurs?Is it intentional, as a result of tactics, or is it psychological, part of letting off the gas?Both?

Some of it is almost certainly tactical.You could see it in the third period when the Oilers dumped the puck into the corner almost every team, and only tried to strike with odd man chances.But if this is the case it should be possible to study whether these are good tactics?

Another question about score effects.We know that your shot percentage goes down when you have the lead, but what are the elements of this change.Do both SF and SA go down, but SF goes down more? (in which case perhaps a reasonable strategy).Does shot quality change as well? If shot quality against does not go down with score effects, then this is evidence that it is a bad strategy?

Any answer monkeys in the house?

Excellent question. If it’s on purpose, i don’t think it’s a good idea. Dance with the one who brung yah.

Speaking of answer monkeys, i believe it was you who i remember saying goal scoring peaks in the early twenties. I was googling this yesterday and could only find info on when points and scoring chance creation peak. Any tips on where to look?

Bag of Pucks

While Maroon is undoubtedly benefitting from the McDavid zoom, I think Big Rig should be given full marks for what he’s accomplished. He’s had some pretty impressive individual effort ‘deke’ goals. For such a big man, very impressive hands. And he invariably arrives at the paint at the right time and has the hand/eye to convert those feeds across.

McDavid’s pass across last night was otherworldly but that was also great work by Patty to convert it in the time and space he had.

And let’s not forget, Lucic was given the first shot and didn’t produce to the level Maroon has.

This player exemplifies the term, ‘fan favourite.’ Fully agree however the contract has to remain in the realm of ‘reasonable.’

hunter1909

bendelson:
hunter1909,

Bruce Wayne,

LMHF#1,

rickithebear,

Gentlemen, please…
There is plenty of room for all of you here on the blog!

__________

Am I the only one that hears Bush (x?) when Machine Head is referenced?

Gentlemen! This is the War Room!

HT Joe

bendelson:
hunter1909,
Bruce Wayne,
LMHF#1,
rickithebear,
Am I the only one that hears Bush (x?) when Machine Head is referenced?

You are not the only one. Memories of being trapped in a bus trip across Ireland with Bush music blaring on loop still haunt me.

hunter1909

npanciroli:
I really want to see the full list of point predictions, is this possible hunter?

Yes.

bendelson

hunter1909,

Bruce Wayne,

LMHF#1,

rickithebear,

Gentlemen, please…
There is plenty of room for all of you here on the blog!

__________

Am I the only one that hears Bush (x?) when Machine Head is referenced?

Chachi

classict: What? Florida’s shooting % when he’s on isn’t high at all, he’s gotten brutal goaltending behind him (I imagine Yandle is partly to blame for some of that – Yandle is his most common partner) and Florida has had some pretty major injuries for over half the season. AND he’s pretty much broken even shot-wise playing top pairing.

Opinions on whether the Oilers should have picked him up aside, he is not even remotely having an awful season. And hes definitely worth more than a 7th (though I’m sure that’s just a dig at BW)

I was being facetious… mostly.

HT Joe

classict:
npanciroli,
…And if we’re giving Lucic a season to adjust to a new team why doesn’t anyone seem to apply that to Demers.

If we give Lucic a season to adjust to a new team, it’s only fair to give Hall a season to adjust to a terribly bad new team.

HT Joe

remlap:
Oilers go on losing skid: “This is why we shouldn’t have traded Hall!”
Oilers win back to back with 14 total goals: “Would have scored more with Hall!”
Get over it.

I’m not sure why you wouldn’t like this logic… it is beautifully consistent.
It is WAY better than people that love the Oilers after wins but hate the Oilers after losses… win or lose, a lot of people miss Hall.

Alpine

Bank Shot: Larsson is clearly better than Demers.

I guess the question is always going to remain, is Hall+ Demers better than Lucic+Larsson.

Probably corsi wise. I think you can’t quantify what Lucic brings to the Oilers in terms of being confident on the ice having a bully at your back.

I definitely think it adds something to the players around him, but you are never going to be able to hang a number on it.

Taylor Hall at this point is a player that has outscored Lucic by 10 points over the last 3 seasons. This is mostly because of injuries but Hall doesn’t bring more to the team if he’s on the IR.

You may say injuries are luck but Lucic has missed substantial time once in his career. Hall 4 seasons out of 6.

I mean if you balance out the time Hall gets hurt with the amount of games Lucic simply plods around and doesn’t do much, Hall probably comes out ahead. The caveat with Lucic being healthy is that he remains healthy by taking a couple games or weeks off here and there and thus you really only get The Good Looch for maybe 65-70% of the season at best.

theres oil in virginia

PhrankLee:
Now boys, no name calling. Dad will slap your pee pee.

Careful, somebody might be into that.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that…

Alpine

Lucic has had a great last month, and overall a decent season. But looking at how ineffective he was for large parts of the season, I really think Mr. Wayne is correct that the contract is likely to be a headache. I hope the headache comes in year 6 rather than year 3, because I think you at least have a have a chance to move it with a year left. And even then, look at what CHI, DET, and FLA had to include when they moved Bickell/Datsyuk/Bolland.

wintoon

Just for the sake of accuracy, the GAG line was:

Hadfield – Ratelle – Gilbert

If memory serves me correctly, the only Hatfield of note was in a feud with someone named McCoy.

Bank Shot

npanciroli:
Demers
42.9% GF
Without Barkov (872 TOI) 34.4 GF%

Larsson
56.7% GF
Without McDavid (795 TOI) 56.1 GF%

Larsson is clearly better than Demers.

I guess the question is always going to remain, is Hall+ Demers better than Lucic+Larsson.

Probably corsi wise. I think you can’t quantify what Lucic brings to the Oilers in terms of being confident on the ice having a bully at your back.

I definitely think it adds something to the players around him, but you are never going to be able to hang a number on it.

Taylor Hall at this point is a player that has outscored Lucic by 10 points over the last 3 seasons. This is mostly because of injuries but Hall doesn’t bring more to the team if he’s on the IR.

You may say injuries are luck but Lucic has missed substantial time once in his career. Hall 4 seasons out of 6.

rickithebear

Bruce Wayne: Oh, please.There isn’t a bigger loudmouth jackass here than you.

I was proud of the Slurs and illegal Physical play I got away with.
Sports surfaces are like Las Vegas!

rickithebear

When you look at Dmen top 20 In EVA/60
EVGA/60
PKGA/60

07-08
Dmen with 3/3
Rafalski 2, 12, 8

dmen with 2/3
B. Campbell
Kronwall
Lidstrom
Malik
Zubov

08-09
dmen with 2/3
Sarich
Ballard
M. Green

09-10
dmen with 2/3
D. Boyle
Orpik
Poti
J. Schultz
Weaver
Yandle

10-11
dmen with 2/3
Franson
O’Donnell
Stoner

11-12
dmen with 2/3
Bieksa
Carle
Ericsson
Kindl
Salvador
Shattenkirk

12-13
dmen with 3/3
Fistric 8, 10, 8

dmen with 2/3
Diaz
Gonchar
Rozival
Tanev

13-14
dmen with 2/3
Bellimore
Bouwmeester
Demers
Lovejoy
Voyonov

14-15
dmen with 2/3
Mcnabb
Rundblad

15-16
dmen with 3/3
Parayko 13, 16, 1

dmen with 2/3
D. pouliot
Sustr

16-17
dmen with 2/3
Alzner
Burns
Doughty
Lindholm

I really would like alzner on this team!

frjohnk

rickithebear:
not being able visualize theshot charts in your brain explains not understanding
Fistric
and
Bellimore!

I am a huge fan of Dmen not penetrating low in the Ozone. But maintain a protective path to our HD area. I do not want my D to chase Goals cause Forwards are way more efficient at achieving that!

I do want my d to transition the Puck to the forwards. I also want a Dman with the vision to be a High 1st assist Generator.

CA/60 is a measure of the failing of the Forwards and offensive Dmen.
A counter attack from Failed Entries, Dumpins lost, Blocks, Misses, Giveaways.

The down low forward/Off Dmen do not provide a presence in the Neutral Zone. So no Neutral zone trap.
Not allowing Dmen to force the Zentry.
This results in high CA/60
Now a Dman can be a Shot suppressor like Russell Blocks, Forced Misses.
but that is independent of the HD play which is a X,Y Corsi Value. though HD is really 100% about targeting the net and open and closed hole shots.

Now the HD affect:
The targeting and distance in Closed hole theory starts with an x,y Corsi
So the PDO that never regresses to the mean is a hint to HD affect!

So we get a Ratio for a dman:
the better HD dmen tend to be in the lowe end of EVGA. cause the targeting distance is greater. this affect the eye and bodies abilty to target the open areas of the net!
we can establish A HD Measure without Shot suppression affect from the Dmen.
(EVGA/60)/(EVSA/60)
Or
we can combine a dman’sShot suppression and HD affect:
(EVGA/60)/(EVCA/60)

Fistric 1-13 W/ oilers
1.10 EVP/60 #18/203 Dmen
0.00 EVG/60 – not chasing Down low!
1.10 EVA/60 #8/203 D
0.73 firstA/60 #2/203 Dmen
Fits the Offensive Dman mold Perfectly!
Best in the game!

Defenisvely Fistric faced
57.45 Ca/60 #151/203 Dmen. the pocession ability of the young forwards was awful!

His shot suppression rate?
26.61 SA/60 top 50 in the league.
26.61/57.45 only 46.3% of the corsi got through!
top 60 Sa rates while facing bottom 60 CA.

Hd affect
1.48/26.61 = 5.56%
Supression/HD affect
1.48/57.45 = 2.58%

So I spent all this time trying to convinve this group that one of the 3 Best Dmen at getting the forward the puck with out sacrificing Defence.

While being one of the Best HD /Shot suppression Dmen in the Game.
Watching the video you see he only allowed 2 GA on His side in the 25 gm he played in 12-13.

People often bring up Fistric as an example of a my poor measure of Dmen.

Most on hear did not even Know that Dmen generate offence like 4th line forwards!
2 GA in 25 gm.!

Top 3 at Getting Forwards the puck often directly (1st assist)
PKGA?
#8 in the league!

The emphasis of play has been backwards for years!

Fistric had what was likely the closest thing to a perfrect Dman season!
Top 8 EVA/60 off D
Top 10 EVGA
Top 8 PKGA

He was Davidson or Weber at Even defence
While being being an Elite Even off dman .
yet did not Sacrifice Defence!
Mact wanted to retain him for 3 years.

But you guys who have emphasized Offence as a measure of a Dman!
4th line scoring!
what important value!

There was no measure of a dman’s def play until I came up with HD theory!
Fistric 12-13 season the best overall performance by a D since 05-06!

Fistric eh?

Does he shoot right handed?

leadfarmer

Professor Q,

I think the special teams will cost him any chance at votes. Having a pp + PK ranking of near 30 kills it for me.

Pouzar

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
Pouzar,

Just imagine the state of affairs on this fine blog if the Oilers were in say Vancouver’s spot standings wise hehe

Indeed!

Speaking of, we’d better not shit the bed tomorrow against those guys.
Winning streaks are kewl unless you are the Flames.