ROLL OVER BEETHOVEN
On a night when little rhymed, there was no need to tell Tchaikovsky the news. Rembrandt left during the first period, and Picasso fell asleep. No matter. Two points secured, with the captain posting the game winner and Cam Talbot delivering a wonderful performance. Screw the style points, there is a playoff berth to be won.
NO PARTICULAR PLACE TO GO, YEAR OVER YEAR
- Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
- Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
- Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
- Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
- Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
- Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
- Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
- Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
- Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
- Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2
- Oilers in March 2016: 8-8-0, goal differential +5
- Oilers in March 2017: 4-2-1, goal differential +6
- Oilers after 71, 2015-16: 27-37-7, goal differential -41
- Oilers after 71, 2016-17: 38-24-9, goal differential +22
The year over year is fantastic, Edmonton sitting at 85 points after 71 games and projecting a final record of 44-28-10 for 98 points. On a night when there were 19 (!) giveaways, and the all situations Corsi was 46-71, it is fair to say the Oilers played down to the level of their opponent. No news there, we have seen it before. The difference? Edmonton won the game. That’s important.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH
- At home to:
Detroit, NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, Montreal(Expected: 2-2-0) (Actual 1-2-1) - At home to:
Dallas, Boston, Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 3-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0) - On the road to: Anaheim, Colorado (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
- At home to: Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-5-1, 15 points in 13 games
- Current results: 4-2-1, 9 points in 7 games
Edmonton is right on track now, a .500 record from here on in gets the club 15 points and that was our line in the sand. There is an encouraging consistency to this season, a certain satisfaction in watching the team gobble up points in all manner of ways. Miles to go, but winning is something this team can do now.
DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT
- Nurse-Benning were 14-13 in 12:46, but 2-10 against Baertschi-Horvat-Granlund. Nurse went 2-5 with Russell and played a little with Larsson, too. No. 25 had a really nice look driving in as the trailer, if he can get an accurate shot in that situation there are goals there. He can wheel, and that should have uses on offense.
- Matt Benning is not as creative since the concussion, but is also playing a simpler game. I expect we see that offensive flair return when he gets comfortable again, but he isn’t costing the team with his current level of play. Fantastic rookie.
- Sekera-Russell went 11-22 in 16:06, including 1-8 with the Desharnais line. I am about one week away from writing some negative things about that 3line’s Corsi, by the way. Went 1-11 against Sedin-Sedin-Chaput, those twins can drive a fan insane. Pairing played the Horvat line to a draw.
- Andrej Sekera saves this team a lot of heartbreak with heady plays, he is a key component on this team.
- Klefbom-Larsson 6-20 together, including 2-7 with McDavid and 1-6 with Nuge. Le holy. Went 1-6 against the Sedins, 0-6 against Horvat. Despite all that, I really didn’t think the good chances favored Vancouver, but will say that the possession numbers fairly reflect the field position. Edmonton couldn’t get the McDavid line heading north with this pairing, and that needs to not happen.
- Cam Talbot stopped 33 of 33, and has a SP of .921, which ranks him No. 7 among starters. His EV strength save percentage, .930, also ranks him No. 7, and his PP SP is .874 (No. 16). You may recall his special teams SP has been a strength this season and in the past, but that number has been falling for some time now.
- Numbers via NHL.com, HockeyStats.ca and NaturalStatTrick.
1LINE
- The goal was gorgeous, terrific shot and we should never take him granted. The Oilers needed that goal, imagine losing a game to VCR and how differently this next week would have set itself up if he doesn’t score.
- Line went 10-11 and got the most done with Nurse-Benning on the ice. Knocked the Cramarossa-Sutter-Magna line 9-4, but were 3-7 against those blasted Sedins. Canucks ran McDavid against Sbisa most often among defensemen, I have no explanation beyond experimentation.
- Leon Draisaitl had a fine night by my eye. Passing well, he also had a goal-mouth chance where the puck was dancing and then another later in the game. He has 63 points now, wonderful season.
2LINE
- Until McDavid’s goal, this line was my choice to get the first one. Played well and at a fast pace, Nuge had a full tank last night.
- Line went 12-17 together and just 3-6 with the Swedish pairing. Went 4-10 against Baertschi-Horvat-Granlund and I thought that Canucks trio was dangerous against the RNH line. I am not certain Baertschi is going to score enough to stay on that line, but the other two have real chem.
3LINE
- Line went 11-9 together and had an interesting split with two pairings. Trio went 1-7 with Sekera-Russell and 7-2 with Nurse-Benning. A lot of that probably has to do with opponent, but an interesting line.
- Went 0-3 against the Sedins but 7-3 against Horvat.
- There is quite a bit of chaos and some assignment issues right now with this line. Does that have to do with Desharnais being new? Important stuff, because if the Oilers lose to LAK Monday night due to a missed assignment or poor communication, how much is the increased offense worth?
- Pouliot is getting back to his right place. Aggressive on the check, getting in the way. Good player.
4LINE
- Mark Letestu, fourth liner, has 14 goals, nine on the power play. That is one more power-play goal than Sam Gagner, for those who are following along.
- Drake Caggiula played well in my opinion, Anton Slepyshev too. The line didn’t play that much, but I like this 4line quite a bit.
- The line went 6-7 together, that’s good considering they were crushed (0-5) in 97 seconds against the Sedins. Went 6-3 against Boucher-Shore-LaBate.
STANDINGS
Edmonton has the poorest performance of these teams over the last 10 games, but as the last remnants of February melt away the Oilers should have a better record than several clubs (in last 10). Massive game tonight, you can cheer for either team to lose, but pray it is in regulation. Anaheim hasn’t disappeared either, that will be a story to watch.
SUNDAY NOTES
- Markus Niemelainen scored twice for Saginaw last night, has three on the year. The mobile defender with size could find his way to Bakersfield after his junior season is over. Patrick Williams covers the AHL for NHL.com and Sportsnet, and tweeted this out yesterday.
- Tyler Benson will soon see a specialist about his groin injury according to Rick Dhaliwal of 1130 Sports. Williams speculates about Benson also heading to Bakersfield, but that might be conditioning or testing his possible availability if the injury is coming around. Guy Flaming had WHL broadcaster Bill Wilms on this week, he mentioned that the injury to Benson may be similar to the one Kevin Lowe and Marc Pouliot had as Oilers. Podcast is here.
- Mark Divver of The Providence Journal is a worthwhile follow, he always has interesting items. He reports that Oilers scouts Kelly Buchberger and Scott Harlow were in to see draft prospects Vincent Deslauriers and William Lagesson.
- Graham McPhee scored a shorthanded goal for Boston College last night.
- Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear went head to head in WHL action last night. Bear had blank boxcars, but Jones picked up an assist and was +4.
- Condors won again last night, Jesse Puljujarvi with an assist and five shots on goal.
- Greg Chase had a goal and an assist in that game, now 42, 3-8-11 on the year.
Wow. Is this the summer they blow up the Kings?
WC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.
CHI 26
MIN 22
SJS 20
ANA 15
EDM 14
CGY 13-1st wildcard
STL 10
NSH 10-2nd wildcard
————–
LAK 5
WPG -2
DAL -5
VAN -6
ARI -10
COL -27
STL has the ROW tiebreaker and now NSH is the 2nd wildcard team. STL’s schedule is very easy and they may finish the season in this spot.
SJS couldn’t beat ANA who played in ANA the night before. Bernier is back to where he was when I really liked him 2 years ago. He’s put up .969 in his last 5 gp. He’s only 28. Helluva tandem for ANA.
I’m not sure I’d rather EDM play SJS or ANA in the first round. CGY is the first choice. After that, not sure.
WC games tonight:
LAK at CGY – LAK In regulation is the ideal scenario. LAK isn’t chasing EDM. They are chasing the two teams in the wildcard spots, those being NSH and CGY. If EDM slides into a wildcard spot, then we can talk about it, but until then they are not.
Think of it this way. A bear is chasing a group of 3 people. You do not have to be faster than the bear to live, just faster than 1 of the other 2 people being chased and in this case you have a pretty good head start.
MIN at WPG – MIN continues its slide. MIN played last night and lost. 3-7-0 in its last 10. Losing to WPG would be a real kick in the junk.
COL at CHI – CHI is on its 3rd in 4 nights in 3 different cities. That said, its COLOL
EC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.
WSH 29
CBJ 28
PIT 27
NYR 21-1st wildcard
MTL 17
OTT 16
BOS 11
TOR 9-2nd wildcard
—————
NYI 7
TBY 6
CAR 3
FLA 3
PHI 2
BUF -2
DET -3
NJD -6
MTL retakes top spot in the Atlantic. TBY finally fades a bit. TOR maintains 2 game lead.
EC games tonight:
CBJ at NJD – should be a walk for CBJ but they are on 3rd in 4.
FLA at PIT – only important for the Art Ross race
CAR at PHI – not important for any reason unless you’re playing/coaching for a job
OTT at MTL – replay of last night’s game in OTT of the 1st and 2nd teams in the Atlantic.
A subtle tip o’ the cap to the now late great Chuck Berry who duck walked into the afterlife yesterday, LT.
Thanks for realizing there is more to life than hockey – there is baseball, music, booze and family too (not necessarily in that order). A true Canadian Renaissance Man. And I mean that with the utmost of respect.
Go Oil.
The Oiler’s have had these games where they can’t put together two straight passes, fight the puck all night, and go on to get pounded in the possession metrics – we’ve seen that now against NYI, Montreal and Vancouver. Sometimes the timing is just off I guess, and ‘nothing rhymes’ as LT says.
The encouraging thing is that even when this team is not firing on all cylinders they aren’t getting blown out on the scoreboard, as in seasons past. Defensively this team has improved tremendously year over year. The compete level and aggression that this team is playing with is just night and day, compared to the previous era of ELPH.
It’s still a work in progress, but the organization is moving in the right direction now.
+ 21 – that goal differential is just a thing of beauty. By comparison, Anaheim is +8 and Calgary is +5. I like our chances against both of those teams in the playoffs.
Talbot 3rd behind Bob and Holtby in DTMAboutHeart’s metric of “goals saved above expectation”
https://twitter.com/DTMAboutHeart/status/843473743641018371
Its like Manny’s GSAA, except DTM uses individual shooter ability for every shot.
He says his xG% is more predictive than CF% due to that fact.
Manny’s xGF% is as predictive as CF%.
Anyhow, interesting to look at.
If they can somehow get LV to take Brown and then buyout Gaborik, they can breath a sigh of relief…..for next year. That would be amazing to get out of those two contracts ( plus the Richards contract)
But I dont think the Kopitar, Quick and Carter contracts will be good value at the tail end either. LA might be the poster boy of handing out bad value contracts.
Doesnt look they have much for prospects bubbling underneath either. Their time is done and I wonder just like you, if they end up blowing it up in the next couple of years.
Talbot = Elite. Drops Mic
Did I do it right?
This, to me, is a cogent reminder that no GM is a god. I remember that Lombardi was pretty much regarded as such around these parts. Some of the shine is certainly off this year due to these contracts (although that was some stinky wizardry around the Richards contract – possibly more to come) and the King’s flagging performance.
Chia probably bombed the Reinhart trade. The Hall trade (no need to thank me, LTers! A thread’s not a thread without…) continues to be divisive. The Korpikoski trade,… He is also not a god. More good than bad though – witness this season’s results.
The biggest change is without a doubt goaltending.
I may have time today, but I looked a couple of months ago at shots against from the low ( perimeter) medium ( by the slot) and high ( slot) danger areas, there was not much difference from last year.
We are better defensively, but its the better goaltending that has made the giant leap for us this year.
What is this “Hall trade” you speak of? I remember hearing something about it, but the details escape me. Please fill me in ….
Talbot has been stellar, has he been better than Schneider in NJ?
Soup Fascist,
Well, most posters were fairly neutral on it, taking a wait-and-see approach to the deal, so you can be forgiven for not noticing it. It rarely got discussed.
Oesterle with 9 points in his last 10 GP. He now has 28 in 37.
I’d like them to find a way to keep him next year.
Seems to me that he marks the turning point for college acquisition. It has been pretty good since. Is that Bob Green?
That’s the one where Batman showed himself a genius by making some much better hypothetical trades/ signings instead.
Ahh. Makes sense. We Oiler fans are known and respected for taking emotion out of our reactions to decisions made by management. Knee-jerk reactions are reserved for fans of other Canadian teams.
Those guys are nuts!!
I totally agree with LT’s regular reminders to never take Connor for granted. At the same time I enjoy watching Cam Talbot almost as much. His balance, body positioning and economy of movement is absolutely fantastic. Ballet on ice. His durability has really bailed out Chia for the Monster trade.
I also love watching Adam Larsson, and try and work out how he effortlessly defuses dangerous situations. Sekera has been great for the team but over 70 games you cannot ignore Larsson’s +18 (second on the team after McD) while facing top quality opposition. If he can just develop a Duncan Keith stretch pass, Voila!
Notwithstanding the forgoing last night’s game was really crap. For one night only, Go Kings.
Would we rather go back to Drake as 3c because for the first time since the trade deadline they didn’t shine. Hell no.
Terrible terrible terrible
not sure why this is even a suggestion
Schneider is having a career worst season and it’s not a little worse than previous, it’s a lot worse.
Man. This Kings-fLames game tonight is an inverse Sophie’s choice for me. Can I just hope for a meteor strike?
I don’t care who wins between CGY and LA. Just win in regulation.
I like how well Talbot is playing but I don’t like how much he’s playing. Playing a guy this much is asking for burnout/injury. One of Chias big mistakes is not providing a backup the coach can trust.
When I was a kid we were camping out in the mountains and my younger sister asked my Dad what do we do if we see a bear? My Dad said to run, to which my sister said there is no way we can out run a bear. My turned to my sister and said ‘No, but I can out run you!’. It took her about 10 seconds before she realized what was happening there…
Yup, totally agree. We dont last long if Talbot gets hurt or burned out.
Why doesn’t Nuge drive hard to the net more often? For a player with a high hockey IQ, he takes too many wrist shots from more than 20 feet away from the net as his primary contribution to creating scoring chance.
The team in front of him has to work to protect him. I don’t know what this team would do if he got injured in or near the playoffs.
Last time that happened I had the sickest feeling in the pit of my stomach as I watched MAB buzz saw Rolosons knee.
So perhaps this year’s NJ downturn is not all on Schneider, just as our upturn is not all on Talbot…
Methinks that mayhaps advanced stats can’t yet decipher between great goalering and great team defence…we’re getting closer though…keep up the good work you nerd pioneers…
Honestly though we’re in the infancy stage of advanced stats in hockey, it was fun to watch the embryonic stage and the painful labour that brought us to this point.
kgo,
It’s tricky cause some goalies performance varies a lot from year to year and some don’t. Cam Ward tends to have the same pretty crap numbers for the last few years. Bishop on the other hand has varied from league average to Vezina finalist (GSAA near 20) to average to Vezina finalist to below average.
Schneider is really having a horrid year by his standards, I would expect him to bounce back
The following is all shots and goals allowed from the low ( perimeter) medium ( by the slot) high ( slot) danger areas per 60 minutes
This is all 5 on 5
SA/60
15-16EDM 30.6
16-17EDM 29.45
We are allowing 1.15 shots less per 60 from last year. Good
LDSA/60
15-16EDM 12.99
16-17EDM 10.77
We are allowing over 2 less shots from the perimeter from last year. Good
MDSA/60
15-16EDM 11.1
16-17EDM 11.66
We were actually better with this metric last year. Not good.
HDSA/60
15-16EDM 6.55
16-17EDM 7.02
We were actually better with this metric last year! Huh?
If we add the high and medium danger we get the area which is called the “arrow” Bruce McCurdy TM. The arrow is the home plate area in front of the net + the arrow portion above the top of the circles in the middle of the ice.
We are giving up 1.03 more shots from the arrow this year compared to last year.
And if we look at another stat, which is expected goals against/60 which includes shot location and shot type, we see this
XGA/60
15-16EDM 2.54
16-17EDM 2.6
So if defensively we have not improved much when looking at shot locations and shot types, where has the improvement come from when looking at goals against
Goaltending.
Where?
GOALTENDING!!!
LDGA/60
15-16EDM 0.39
16-17EDM 0.19
MDGA/60
15-16EDM 0.85
16-17EDM 0.58
HDGA/60
15-16EDM 1.37
16-17EDM 1.34
Every shot location shows a reduction in goals against.
If we take a look at the difference between expected goals and actual goals
Last year we got -0.09/60 This was just below average goaltending.
This year we get 0.49/60. And when you factor in that Bonas Gustavosn dragged the number down, we find out that Talbot is elite this year.
All hail Cam Talbot
kgo,
A lot of our upturn is on Talbot. He deserves the credit. I’m sure someone will come along and say last night is one of the 25 games we win no matter what. No. We won the game because Talbot made all the saves a good goalie makes and then some.
frjohnk,
Shot location and shot type? Does this differentiate between screens, one timers, rebounds, deflections, cross crease passes etc? Because I promise you we’re better defensivly than last year so your numbers are missing part of the picture…Keep plugging bud
frjohnk,
Thanks for digging those numbers up. Elite goaltending covers up a lot of mistakes. Without Talbot or a close replacement we’re not talking playoffs
kgo,
Maybe. And maybe once Price went down last year Mtl defense stopped playing, but I doubt it at least for a while until hope was lost. An elite goalie can make things look dreamy. So while the numbers you want aren’t available, the difference between Talbot and Gustavsson is real and spectacular.
I think he has lost his offensive instincts a little along the way.
The tragedy is that the Oilogosphere can’t come up with a better nickname than Dadbot. FFS. Surely a stat heavy site can come up with a cool randomly generated regressionally analysed monika that is (much) better, e.g. Cobalt Tam, only (much, much) better.
Lowetide,
Which will probably cost him with a trip to hockey purgatory in the offseason. At least he can keep Hall company in NJ. Or maybe Carolina if asking price for Duchenne doesn’t come down.
One signature of a good team is they rarely beat themselves. I think the Oil have reached that point now.
They still play too conservatively with the lead for my liking, but the ability to shut down the opposition with the lead is a great recipe for playoff success.
It really is impressive to see how buttoned down they are now in the DZone. The days of the Fs flying the zone way too early are truly over. TMac has instilled a culture of defence first, they’ve won with it, and now the team has fully bought into it. You can deride it as boring but the reality is scoring is down across the league and being strong defensively is mandatory to success in the present day NHL.
Btw, you know what’s also boring? Missing the playoffs every year. I’ll gladly take this good boring over that bad boring.
Taylor Hall – goalie killer!!!!!
One centre that can’t play a lot of 5v5 TOI, three more where the oldest guy is 23, one older tiny guy who was on his way out of the league before Chia gave a top 4 D for him.
A year more experience and a solid 3C and it should get better.
I think Nuge is tentative to drive the high-danger scoring areas with speed due to the numerous injuries he’s sustained.
I wonder sometimes how much concussions have affected some of our young talent. Connor Murphy really smacked Nuge last year and he hasn’t really been the same since.
Nuge was almost getting back to normal after coming back from that broken hand in 15′-16′, then bang. It’s like he lost a little bit of his Nugey-ness that day.
Nuge made a move a few games ago where he challenged the defender one-on-one, pumped his skates to find that extra gear, got a step on the guy before cutting in and getting a great scoring chance.
I thought to myself damn, thats the Nuge we know and love.
You don’t see those plays often anymore. And its depressing as hell.
The kids hurt. Maybe not his extremities like arms, legs, feet, hands but I think his head maybe isn’t quite where it needs to be if you know what I mean.
(combine all this with the coach asking him to assume more of a checking role for quite a bit of this season)
Rules to live by.
David Hockney keeps a note taped to his mirror. Get up early – go to work. He’s pushing 80 and continues pushing his oeuvre. I suspect LT lives in that ballpark…so thanks for that.
I think if we play a balanced game through seven…we take the Ducks. And I prefer that to the Flames in the first round. Those guys are hot for payback given 4 losses through season performance.
And I suspect weird, eerie, superstitious shit happenings in the first round against those guys. Stats aside.
I have been a firm believer in shot quality for quite some time. Its why I like looking at shot location and types when studying goalies. It is not perfect, it does not tell us much about odd man rushes, one timers, sightlines, but shot location does give us a better baseline than just shots when measuring such data as save % and team defense.
I agree that we “probably” give up less dangerous shots this year compared to last year but we dont know how the numbers compare and we have to remember that many of these dangerous shots are somewhat baked into the numbers.
For example
-a shot from the low danger area has a probability of about 3% of going in.
-a shot from the medium danger area has a probability of about 8% of going in.
-a shot from the high danger area has a probability of about 17% of going in.
( my numbers might be off a bit, but in the ball park)
Many of the dangerous shots ( one timers, oddman rushes) come from the medium and high danger areas, so while the probability of those dangerous shots are not totally accounted for, some of the probablility of those shots going in are baked in the numbers due to them coming from the arrow ( med and high danger areas)
All NHL goalies’ GSAA/60, minimum 1000 minutes played, all situations.
GSAA = Goals Saved Above Average. Manny’s save metric based on his shot quality formula which produces his Expected Goals (xG)
1 SCOTT.DARLING 0.691
2 SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 0.578
3 JIMMY.HOWARD 0.558
4 BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.429
5 CAM.TALBOT 0.427 ******
6 MATTHEW.MURRAY 0.416
7 PHILIPP.GRUBAUER 0.372
8 JOHN.GIBSON 0.319
9 CRAIG.ANDERSON 0.276
10 ANTTI.RAANTA 0.244
11 COREY.CRAWFORD 0.238
12 JUUSE.SAROS 0.207
13 MARTIN.JONES 0.206
14 ANDERS.NILSSON 0.203
15 CAREY.PRICE 0.200
16 FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.181
17 JONATHAN.BERNIER 0.158
18 DEVAN.DUBNYK 0.135
19 THOMAS.GREISS 0.121
20 MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.114
21 MIKE.SMITH 0.095
22 RYAN.MILLER 0.093
23 JAMES.REIMER 0.088
24 JACOB.MARKSTROM 0.063
25 CHAD.JOHNSON 0.031
26 ROBERTO.LUONGO 0.018
27 ROBIN.LEHNER 0.000
28 PETER.BUDAJ -0.003
29 HENRIK.LUNDQVIST -0.020
30 JAROSLAV.HALAK -0.034
31 ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY -0.058
32 CORY.SCHNEIDER -0.064 ******
33 MIKE.CONDON -0.078
34 BRIAN.ELLIOTT -0.085
35 KEITH.KINKAID -0.096
36 AL.MONTOYA -0.103
37 CARTER.HUTTON -0.114
38 JAKE.ALLEN -0.129
39 BEN.BISHOP -0.154
40 PEKKA.RINNE -0.155
41 TUUKKA.RASK -0.172
42 CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK -0.187
43 KARI.LEHTONEN -0.201
44 CAM.WARD -0.252
45 STEVE.MASON -0.273
46 PETR.MRAZEK -0.297
47 CALVIN.PICKARD -0.315
48 LOUIS.DOMINGUE -0.380
49 SEMYON.VARLAMOV -0.485
50 MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON -0.669
51 ANTTI.NIEMI -0.671
52 MICHAL.NEUVIRTH -0.688
This (along with DTMAboutHeart) are the two metrics we have that correct for shot quality.
As KGO noted, maybe we don’t have enough information to weight who is more responsible for Goals Against in terms of goalies and Dcorp, but these two metrics are the best we have.
We still don’t have “puck movement’ data, which is the next step in refining this, but its much better than straight SV% as it weights shots, is pretty good imo, and matches the eye well.
Gus and LB didn’t qualify for the above list given their TOI, but here they are via the same metric:
Gus -0.868 (329 min)
LB +0.007 (165 min)
Also,
Darling’s last 3 years:
14/15 +0.870
15/16 +0.040
16/17 +0.691
Darling’s 14/15 and 16/17 years are the two best GSAA/60 for all goalies who have played over 830 min (so 14/15 would qualify) each season from 14/15-16/17
That’s places 1 and 2 among 178 goalie seasons. His 15/16 season ranked 89/178.
If I’m the GM of CAR or DAL that’s the guy I target and I have a vet back up already (Ward, Lehtonen)
He’s UFA after this year so McPhee can’t stick his mitts in there and mess it up.
Is everyone seeing the comments in bold font? Or is it just me?
It does track for rebounds, deflections, but not the other 3.
Also,
I promise you we’re better defensivly than last year so your numbers are missing part of the picture
Oh, well shit we have a promise on a message board.
That’s all I need.
*burns shot data from the last 694,703 shots over the last 10 years*
http://tinyurl.com/3wltywp
My font ususally tends towords blurry.
That’s interesting because “by eye” I remember Talbot letting in some stinkers from outside the slot last year that were real “back breakers” before he was sat down for almost a month in favour of NIlsson
But no one saw it coming!!
Yeah, last night in the third (I think, that game blurred together) he has the puck between the circles and passes it further into the crease, and nothing became of it.
Old school Nuge would have shot from that area, or driven it to the net.
All his shots seem to be weak wristers too.
Needs more gumption in scoring areas, but as long as Ebs and Lucic are his linemates and are doing the gumption work, we’re OK.
He’s 6′ listed at 182. He’s skinny for a forward. Until he decides to develop an NHL physique he won’t make it, and he’s turning 25. Too bad as he has everything else. But not enough outright talent to be way undersized, and it’s shown in his call ups. If I were his agent I’d be looking in Europe for him, good player, just ‘probably’ not NHL. Legs as well. His chances of reinventing as a LW at his age are slim at his size for NHL ambitions.
That Frolik goal from the corner on Halloween night. 5-4 Flames with less than 10 seconds to go.
Truly a nightmare performance.
Right Click the left side of the page and un-select “MacT” filter.
Also,
Normal for me.
jonrmcleod,
Just you.
Woodguy v2.0,
http://tinyurl.com/mpe6wjp
Well this is a home run post.
You should also remember by “pitchfork” as well. Talbot was showing to be average, if not below at the start of the last year and some of us were waiting for you outside.
He’s playing tentatively, thinking too much. Too much responsibility for what he can handle at this point IMO. He was different at the World Cup, same coach. Ideally a good 3C that could take load off and let him swagger a bit, might rejuvenate him somewhat.
Woodguy v2.0,
Wood guy, I really enjoy your analysis of the upcoming daily games. Gives me a Coles Notes of what’s happening in the league.
Keep it up, please!
Woodguy v2.0,
That Halak guy. Who did he sleep with to get banished. I mean yes he deserved to lose his starter spot to Greiss but even his bad stretch this year is better than Wards last 5 years
McPhee could throw a bunch of money at him and sign him in the window to talk to UFA’s though.
To take an Edmonton angle, how much is it worth to have a top end back-up to Talbot, a guy that can give Talbot lots of games off while also providing seemingly very good injury insurance?
Maybe it’s more likely that they go with Talbot/Brossoit to save some cap money next year, but if they are looking to sign another goalie for 1-1.5M, is it worth the extra money to go after Darling, if he’s going to cost 3M, IYO?
The Oilers would be better with Lander between Kassian and Pouliot. (Lander has never played with two wingers who can skate and get in on the forecheck, except for a very short stint with Hall before Hall was hurt…Lander arriving half a beat late wouldn’t matter then). Lander would also help the atrocious PK, which, if not fixed soon, will doom the OIlers in the playoffs.
I think Nuge and Eberle tend not to go straight for the net because most players are checked going into the slot, resulting in a turnover going other way. I think they have been coached into trying to set up shop in the offensive zone. This usually means going to the open areas along the boards and corners. Its not necessarily a bad thing.
No offense but this reminds me of posts from yesteryear (ie. last season) that argued that the thing holding the Oilers back was not putting Yak with Connor.
Ducey,
Oesterle with 9 points in his last 10 GP. He now has 28 in 37.
I’d like them to find a way to keep him next year.
**********************************************************
Agreed.
Speed and agility to go retrieve dump ins and skate/pass it quickly.
New NHL.
I hope Nugent-Hopkins gets freed from McLellan, for Nuge’s sake, hopefully to Carolina for Faulk, which would double with saving the Oilers from the looming Russell extension disaster.
Garth Snow makes decisions for reasons other than winning hockey games.
If I’m running CAR or DAL that’s the other guy I target.
I target Darling first because:
1) He’s UFA, only cost $, and won’t cost much because he’s never been a starter
2) Halak only has 1 year left and is $4.5MM, will cost an asset either to NYI or VGK (I grab him if I’m McPhee either to play or trade)
Nuge? This year you’ve got a 6 mil border collie hitched to a little red wagon pulling too mush D and PK around. O zone witchy lost in the translation.
He knows thy thought.
Hear his speech but say thou nought.
You’re welcome!!
Thanks to LT for letting me post it here where it gets some eyeballs on it.
Woodguy v2.0,
I absolutely love those numbers, just don’t share them with Jets fans. They think Helleybuck is the real deal.
Good point about McPhee getting a head start on UFA’s, but I’m sure the other teams who are interested will have whispered in his agent’s ear by then.
If no on whispers he’d take it, there are only 31 starting jobs in the NHL.
Not sure how much money McPhee throws at a goalie who’s never been a starter though.
Also,
I’d bet on either Ellis or someone other than LB being back up next year.
Ellis has outperformed LB in the AHL and Peter seems to have realized mistake. We can tell the coach doesn’t trust LB as well.
Helleybuck was last year:
15/16 +0.203
16/7 -0.187
He might be god and having an off year, or might be meh and had a good year last year.
Also, according to kgo he might have had Larsson in front of him last year, but not this year so we should look into that as well.
I did that. But now it must be stuck on the DSF filter because whenever I type “Draisaitl” it comes up as “Colborne.”
Woodguy v2.0,
Well playing in front of Byfuglien isn’t the best for a young goalie. I’m sure they miss Myers but the emergence of Trouba is pretty significant. You are right might just be a bad year but if I’m Chevaldayoff I look hard for another good goalie and not Pavelec, Hutchinson to help him out. I would go very hard for that Darling guy
Well done sir.
Does it also type “DAL/VAN or CGY” randomly when you are comparing teams to the Oilers?
Speaking of Colborne, what happened to him this year? He’s no Draisaitl, but 4 goals and 2 assists in 57 games? Yikes!
Woodguy v2.0,
It’s an interesting position for Darling to be in.
Yes, there a few teams looking for goalies (CAR, DAL, LV, CGY (if they don’t re-sign one or both of their goalies), VCR, ARI), but there are also a number of goalies, some of which might get shuffled that normally wouldn’t because LV might be about to play back up arbitrage.
If LV says to Darling in the window “Here’s 3.5M per for 3 years, what do you think?” he might well gamble that he can get more on the market, but that’s a fair amount to pass on for a guy that doesn’t have huge career earnings to this point.
But if it gets to July 2 and he’s sort of left without a chair, I don’t know if I hate the idea of EDM spending a premium on him as a backup.
If Schneider is worse because he misses Larsson, why is Kinkaid better?
All situation SV%
Schneider last year .9236
Schneider this year .9108
Kinkaid last year .9041
Kinkaid this year .9101
GSAA/60 (all situations)
Schneider last year +0.409
Schneider this year -0.064
Kinkaid last year -0.346
Kinkaid this year -0.096
And he scored a hat trick in game 1. 1 goal since…
I don’t think that Darling gets to July 2nd without a chair.
There was tampering before and now that they legalized a week of it before July 1st, there’s even more.
He’ll have a good idea of where he’s going.
I also agree with you that he grabs the best contract regardless of where it is.
The first multi-year, multi-million contract is a big damn deal and players who haven’t made a lot of bank already don’t turn those down.
He’s already 28. He’ll be in maximize dollars mode, not maximize “winning” or kick the earnings can down the road a year.
Woodguy v2.0,
In terms of expansion strategy, which position do you think it makes the most sense for Vegas to take in excess beyond the 14/9/3 requirement? Lean towards D, but maybe G depending on the lists?
Gs have poor trade value though. If Vegas takes 3 goalies that are waiver eligible they likely lose one of them for pennies.
D for sure they should stock up on.
Nobody can prove the sun will rise tomorrow, but I promise you it will. First of all I agree the data is great, I’m just trying to point out the shortcomings and keep you nerds grounded.
This data accounts for the location of a deflection or one timers but not the increased probability of them scoring….A major gap in the data…
Further, shots are not the be-all end-all here…How many passes have slid through the crease or into feet but not counted as a shot…Near tap-ins that are incredibly high danger but don’t show up in this data…How many of these plays occured last year but were prevented by this year’s team … We don’t know because the data doesn’t account for it…And it’s not “baked in” … I promise!
Last year
5v5 GA60 with Larsson
Schneider 1.30
Kinkaid 1.65
5v5 GA60 without Larsson
Schneider 2.19
Kinkaid 3.26
This year
5v5 GA60
Schneider 2.31
Kinkaid 2.39
Kinkaid’s better number this year is worse than his with Larsson number last year.
For interest sake, some big movers (up and down) in GSAA/60 year over year (1/16 to 16/17)
PLAYER CHANGE FRO YEAR TO YEAR CHANGE TEAMS?
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY +0.812 no
CURTIS.MCELHINNEY +0.689 not until dealine
JIMMY.HOWARD +0.653 no
SCOTT.DARLING +0.651
JONATHAN.BERNIER +0.494 yes
CRAIG.ANDERSON +0.327 no
JAKE.ALLEN -0.323 no
JAROSLAV.HALAK -0.412 no
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST -0.413 no
STEVE.MASON -0.415 no
THOMAS.GREISS -0.443 no
CORY.SCHNEIDER -0.473 no
SEMYON.VARLAMOV -0.481 no
PETR.MRAZEK -0.497 no
DARCY.KUEMPER -0.712 no
MICHAL.NEUVIRTH -0.937 no
Interesting that both NYI goalies are way off as are both PHI goalies.
Both CBJ goalies way up.
Those all suggest that team effects are involved.
Then we have Howard way up and Mzarek way down to pop a hole in the team effects bubble.
More bubble popper are Doobie (up slightly) and Kuemper (way off), Kinkaid (up +0.25) compared to Schneider (-.47)
Anderson is way up (+.327) whereas Condon and Hammond are negatives.
Funny that you put it like that, I heard from an ex-NHL owner that he was shipped out of MTL due to an affinity for, how should I call it, underripe fine wines
Good work keeping the nerds grounded. No way we would’ve noticed all that without you.
5’10” 170lb Kris Russell says hi!
Roll Over Beethoven
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSLMN6g_Od4
Third line looks to play as good as Kassian can play. DD can make slick passes but otherwise very quiet, having little impact. Yet he’s getting some points
I would like to see Gryba back in for a game or two. Just as our forwards play better with some toughness in the group, so does our d. Nurse does a fine job, so does Larson. Though despite Larsons nasty edge, he is first out of a scrum and I have yet to see him stick up for a teammate.
Just some observations. But I believe Grubs will really be needed the first game or two of a series. As St Lois proved last year, the way to beat Chicago was to hit them, and then hit them some more.
And it may also be prudent to see Landers in that third line center role for two games prior to playoffs just to see if we have an option there if needed. (Perhaps Khaira as we know Anton’s time may be up)
Well I read the comments fervently and don’t see many other devil’s advocates here so back off, and I’m nerdy enough to call yall nerds, I passed my 300 level stats courses with flying colours
//On a night when little rhymed, there was no need to tell Tchaikovsky the news. Rembrandt left during the first period, and Picasso fell asleep.//
LT: Perfect metaphor!
Hockey analytics is breaking down the disaray/actions that makes a beautifal piece of art.
Hockey is a Jackson pollack!
Last night was pollack at its finest!
Beautiful Disaray!
Woodguy v2.0,
That’s the problem with young goalies. One year you think you have the next big thing then the next year your screaming make a save ffs. Looking at you Mrazek, Vasilevsky, Helleybuck
Good to know. I’m new here. Don’t recall seeing any 300 level stats course inspired analysis posted by you. Looking forward to it.
frjohnk,
Don’t get me wrong talbot has been amazing this year but there are a lot of little things Statistics don’t cover. Over my years of playing hockey although mostly beer league I have played every position, about 50 percent in net 40% d and 10 % forward. Now good goal tending goes a long way but if your d is not doing there job you can only stop so much. Are your high danger shots breakaways, 3 or 4th attempts or sustained zone pressure where a guy can walk in with the puck and has all the time in the world. Good d takes away time and space and prevents 2nd attempts. Without our improved d talbots numbers would be considerably worse
I was going to look at something like that.
Over the last 4 years Larsson 5 on 5
On ice Sv%
20132014 N.J 91.56
20142015 N.J 93.56
20152016 N.J 94.67
20162017 EDM 92.22
Rel.Sv%
20132014 N.J -1.34
20142015 N.J -0.63
20152016 N.J 3.22
20162017 EDM -1.09
Last year was the only year in which the goalie did better with Larsson on the ice as opposed to off the ice.
Here are how our D men stack up in regards to on ice save %
KRIS.RUSSELL 94.12
ANDREJ.SEKERA 93.58
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 93.58
DARNELL.NURSE 93.06
MATT.BENNING 92.94
ERIC.GRYBA 92.88
ADAM.LARSSON 92.22
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 91.44
Here is expected goals against/60
xGA60
KRIS.RUSSELL 2.61
ANDREJ.SEKERA 2.48
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 2.59
DARNELL.NURSE 2.76
MATT.BENNING 2.57
ERIC.GRYBA 2.61
MATTHEW.BENNING 2.28
ADAM.LARSSON 2.72
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 2.67
While on the ice the, Larsson has the highest amount of high danger corsi attempts against amongst Oiler Dmen, I do believe there is still an adjustment being made by switching teams for him. Oilers D play a swarm and as evident of the goal against a couple of games ago when Hendricks Larsson both went for the same man, leaving a guy wide open, Larsson is still adjusting.
It is my pleasure.
My stats knowledge is like my Francais, I can understand the quick and guttural Quebecois, but i’m too rusty to speak a word of it…I’m just here to poke holes and make stupid analogies…and provide the odd insider info from my old EIG connections.
I feel that our defense is better too. When I look at the numbers that we have to evaluate defensive play based on shot data, it looks like our defense isn’t better from last year. That result makes me cautious about placing too much faith in the numbers. But it also makes me cautious about placing too much faith in our defense. As folks have already pointed out, we have a way to go in separating defensive play from goaltender play. But I think it’s fair to say we’re not at the beginning.
Didn’t you see my baby analogy? we’re well past the embryonic stage, the tough labour is over…advanced stats has learned to crawl and is even pulling itself up on coffee tables!
Once we have puck and player movement data we’ll be off the races.
Cool. When you used nerd, I assumed you weren’t. That’s what I get for assuming. I hope to have the honor of having you poke holes in one of my posts. Here’s to clear thinking.
One thing I have not looked at is score effects.
We are leading more than last year and I wonder how much that applies to the shot numbers.
Would definitely move the dial somewhat.
I’m curious if they feel that their ability to hoard G’s changes the market substantially enough to be worth deviating from what, IMO, is the general consensus that they’ll likely take extra D?
The sun will not rise tomorrow. It will continue to orbit the galaxy’s center, whilst at the same time that galaxy is travelling away from the big bang epicenter. Try not to think about how the nothingness before could have a center, like my deep down feelings of the previous ten years of following the Oilers. The sun will seem to stay exactley where it is for us while we orbit it. I can prove it.
As the Floyd said: There is no dark side of the moon. It’s ALL dark.
And thus the stupid “New Jersey doesn’t miss Larsson” argument based on Keith Kinkaid having slightly better overall numbers than last year was taken out back and beaten to death.
Frojhnl:
Mact Swarm = Eakins Swarm
what fucking idiot abandons an area were shots go in 5 times more than the shts in the area they are asked to swam.
I had a NCAA coach tell me my HD shot theory made him understand
On offence – giving up 4 LD shots for 1 HD was a break even or gain
On defence – preventing 1HD shot for 4LD shots was a break even or gain.
Last 4 years our coaches are Idiots!
Can you name our 2 1st comp HD dmen with issues with the swarm!
Fayne and Larsson
i would have loved
Russell – Larsson
Sekera – Fayne
Davidson – Benning
Marincin
Top 10 HD dmen
Fayne
Larrson
Sekera versus 2nd comp.
Top 30 HD Dmen
Davidson
Marincin
Top 50 HD dmen
Benning
Georges,
Cheers
Very clever, but as my astrophysics Prof taught me “you cannot prove anything, you can only provide evidence” and here we are debating the evidence as we should.
PS: please quote epic Pink Floyd as often as possible
Yeah, take ~2 G who you know you can trade and all the 2nd pairing Dmen you can find with attention to RHD.
VGK could have a deep dcorps (without the high end) than 10+ NHL teams from day 1 and Actual NHL goalering.
I wouldn’t go that way, but tank for a bit if I were GMGM, but he has that option.
Don’t believe everything Len Barrie says
I see Padre addressed the fact that last year was a serious outlier year for Larsson ONSV% relative to team and that he’s negative again this year, so you can throw that out.
Also,
Kinkaid’s “away from Larsson” is better this year and Schneider’s is worse.
My point stands.
My point being:
“after grinding through 8 years of goalie data looking for patterns its best not to rest on one year samples, they vary wildly”
kgo,
This data accounts for the location of a deflection or one timers but not the increased probability of them scoring….A major gap in the data…
Further, shots are not the be-all end-all here…How many passes have slid through the crease or into feet but not counted as a shot…Near tap-ins that are incredibly high danger but don’t show up in this data…How many of these plays occured last year but were prevented by this year’s team … We don’t know because the data doesn’t account for it…And it’s not “baked in” … I promise!
While I agree that puck movement data will help a ton, your inference here is that all of these things vary wildly from team to team and have a major impact that we can’t see with just the shots.
They probably don’t.
I promise.
You’re a mensch.
Mensch was a lefty.
Waivers are going to have a big impact on LV’s plans IMO. It will be tricky for LV to find guys who are 3+ years pro who still have waiver exemptions, so a number of the players they pick in the expansion draft will be available to the rest of the league on waivers a few months later.
It will obviously be harder to trade non-waiver exempt players for value, if the other teams think there’s a chance they can pick up the player for free if they’re patient. McPhee will get the best value for players that will definitely be on the team if they’re not traded.
As such, loading up on goalies to trade doesn’t make much sense.
I think he’ll load up on D. Lots of teams will be losing their third or fourth best D in the expansion draft, so he should be able to get 8 veteran D who are good enough to be in any other team’s top six. He can then try to move one or two of those guys for a top six forward and/or waiver exempt young players, knowing that if he doesn’t get a deal he likes he can just give his coach a very deep D corps to play with.
If it wasn’t for the guys who actually watch the games to come down from on high to tell us what’s what who knows what crazy theories we’d come up with!!!
Just like Don Cherry yesterday using BOS footage to show “those stats nerds are wrong”
Using the best possession team in the NHL to show us that possession doesn’t matter.
Good times.
That sounds something a nerd would say.
I demand to see your CoolKid credentials.
Yeah, and then starts trundling down at 30 and hit the cliff at about 33 unless they are the best of the best
Tough to identify and keep the treadmill full.
I’m gonna go old school, Larsson is +18 and all that matters is GF%. Best defender we have had in a long time.
and hopefully Padre’s data takes the “Larsson causes better SV%” argument gets set on fire and launched into kgo’s moat.
frjohnk,
Larsson is still a young defenseman. Add up his games from this year and last and you’re nearly at half the games he’s played in the NHL. Early results for a defenseman are going to be erratic as he learns about the league and the league learns about him.
Last year, the NJD coach gave Larsson and Greene the most minutes. Coaches don’t trust players who they think will bury them. Or at least they shouldn’t.
This year, Larsson is part of a top-4 defense with Klefbom, Sekera, and Russell.
I’m assuming the numbers you’re providing are full season. Larsson-Klefbom were definitely more wobbly at the start than they are now. If you watch the games, the wobble in defensive play for that pair is more on the young Swede who by the end of this season will play about the same number of NHL games as Larsson had played going into the 2015-16 season.
Defensemen take time. Defenesemen need time.
The numbers you listed show Larsson second from last on the team on on-ice sv% (I ignore xGA60; I don’t find it useful). I look at all the defensemen ahead of him on that list. Then I ask myself, having watched nearly every minute of every game so far this season, are all of those defensemen better defensemen than Adam Larsson?
This is the kind of conclusion we’re hoping to make when we do analysis on the numbers we track. And I just can’t reach that conclusion on Larsson, i.e., he’s our second worst defenseman at playing defense. Larsson gives a little bit of that everything is going to be all right vibe that Pronger gave in the playoffs. You want him on the ice. LT notices it. He’ll fire off a “Nice defensive play by Larsson there” post every once in a while. I think a lot of fans are noticing this.
So when I see the numbers you listed, I don’t wonder about Larsson. I wonder about on-ice sv% (and the other numbers we have access to) and how much they tell me about evaluating defensemen.
(As far as on-ice sv%, I don’t think it’s repeatable, is it? Is there a stat that’s repeatable, i.e., correlates year-over-year for defensemen?)
Don’t you start in on me too!
also, it was a refutation of “Schneider’s having a terrible year because Larsson isn’t there” argument, not a “NJD doesn’t miss Larsson” argument.
Those are separate issues.
lol
Finally some balance restored, in the hockey debate.
Given the current progress of the Oilers, and the current direness of the NJ devils, I’m prepared to close the book on the Hall for Larsson debate once and for all time.
Don Cherry recently said something on this topic.
Was it me or was I dreaming or did anyone else notice the McDavid powerplay where they keep feeding him the puck at the side of the goal and he makes 6,7,8…world class passes into the slot.
McDavid’s literally taking over the games, like Orr, and all the other greats of the game.
If hockey was as simple as that it wouldn’t hold my interest.
Georges,
(As far as on-ice sv%, I don’t think it’s repeatable, is it? Is there a stat that’s repeatable, i.e., correlates year-over-year for defensemen?)
Corsi and Relative Corsi
Woodguy v2.0,
Wait, what? You’re the one who used one year data to say if Schneider misses Larsson, why doesn’t Kinkaid? No fair!
… unless you meant the opposite of what you were saying. My head hurts. No sharp practice on a lazy Sunday afternoon.
I calculate xGA using league average sv% for low, medium, and high danger shots. Simpler to understand and the result correlates almost perfectly with corsica’s xGA.
I noticed that our xGA this year is pretty much what it was last year (a little worse actually when I checked it at the beginning of 2017). I saw we were also giving up more high danger chances than last year. That was head-scratching. How could our defense be worse when it’s clear that our GA is better? Is Talbot really playing out of his mind? But it didn’t look like he was besieged.
Then I thought about how bad a team we were last year. I don’t think we got other team’s A games. They could put the game on auto-pilot pretty early. I think we’re getting A games from our opponents this year. Our xGA numbers last year probably flattered the defense.
Would you say your interest in hockey comes from trying to analyze what is happening on the ice and creating data that represents it?
Or does your interest come from enjoying the excitement and competitiveness of the game?
Woodguy v2.0,
This one.
In the last minute of a game with the Oilers with a lead and the faceoff in the Oiler zone, Larsson is my first Dman I would pick to play.
I believe he is the best defensive Dman we have
I saw a stat a while back ( wished I saved it) that showed Larsson had the best “puck takeways with a hit” with the Oilers.
He is our best Dmen when battling in the corners and in front of the net.
I think the issue is that he has shown after winning a puck battle in our zone, he is more apt than most other of our Dmen to just chip/flip the puck out of our zone. WheatNOil has shown that Larsson was below average in skating and passing the puck out this year.
With a chip/flip, we lose possession more often compared to when our D skate and pass the puck out. And I believe this is part of why he gets challenged more ( most high and med danger corsi attempts when he is on the ice, some of it is Klefbom, but some of it is his lack of puck movement) This is part of why his expected goals against or another number expected PDO is higher than the majority of the Dmen on our team.
I will agree that he has played way better from the start of the year and I know the numbers were worse back then from right now. He is still adjusting to the team and system. He will only get better and I believe if he can feel comfortable and confident ( because he has the ability) to be an average to better than average puck mover he will be on his to being a very good top pairing Dman.
Along with Klefbom, Sekera, Russell, Nurse, and Benning, Larsson is my favorite Dman.
Yeah glad I wasn’t arguing that point. Also do you think maybe Larsson is a better d-man at 23 and 24 than he was at 21 and 22? Maybe?
Fair, they obviously do miss Larsson.
Went to the Portland-Seattle game last night to see Bear and Jones.
Both had quiet nights on the scoresheet, but it’s remarkable how much of what Seattle does runs through Bear (especially because of Barzal being scratched last night). Best player on the ice and I’d say he played close to 30 mins last night. He’s too good for that league, and from a developmental standpoint that’s all you can ask for at this stage. The foot speed is still a minor issue, and Jones is definitely the more toolsy player with maybe more upside, but I’d be surprised if Bear can’t carve out a career as a 3rd pair/2nd PP guy at the very least. Smart, poised, can pass it, and that shot. I’m anxious to see him at a higher level where the pace is faster.
Incidentally, the result last night means they face off against each other in the first round again, so one of them will be in Bakersfield in a couple weeks.
Yup a top 4 D man who cant make it on the Canadians … What has appeared in 3 of 7 this month for the Habs …. And struggled to maintain or get into at all the oilers lineup prior to that…..
Moose,
Any idea what’s up with the Barzal scratch?
I was watching PIT play FLA this afternoon. Crosby scored 3 goals. His linemates, Sheary and Guentzel, got assists on each of his goals. The way they attacked was mesmerizing.
CMD does take over games. Maroon and Drai are playing great with him right now. But, at some point in his career, CMD will have quicker linemates (like Sheary and Guentzel) that can read and react and skate a little bit like he does.
Then it’s not even going to be fair.
Is there a stat that corelates for Dmen.
x, y location of Corsi a accumalated
Corsix,y – shot supression = open hole shots
shot supression = blocks + misses + c losed hole shots
Since Corsi against is a reflection of offences
failed zone entry
giveaways
blocks
misses – not recovered
closed shot – not recovered
open hole shotsx,y/CAx,y
that captures targeting and shot supresion
that is my critical final expectationfor open hole shot theory
taking in
1. shot supresion
2. targeting supression
3. HD theory
3.
failed forward positioning for neutral zone trap
Was this earlier in the year or still an issue?
Woodguy v2.0,
Why Len Barrie? I mean that’s funny cause he’s a schmuck but I don’t get the connection
Maybe they wanted to put someone in the lineup who can score a goal.
By eye he was one of the few d-men who was willing to rush the puck up the ice last night. It was such an awful game I may have hallucinated it though.
I’m pretty sure about halfway through the season Dubnyk was top 3. Getting shelled again today. without Dubnyk standing on his head that team is very vulnerable to a first round exit.
He left game Friday ill…they think it might be mumps but haven’t got tests back yet, but they are treating it as such based on symptoms.
spoiler,
Flu. Worried about mumps.
last friday that is…i didn’t;t hear if it was positive but assume it was
They probably don’t vary wildly or they probably don’t have a major impact?
Because something has varied wildly between this year’s oilers and last year’s. That’s the crux of this discussion….Crux is a word right?
3 goals against on 6 shots. Did he have another kid?
Don’t forget that he also confused Oesterle and Laleggia RE: remaking their career as a forward.
Davidson was a top 4 dman for a pretty small run of games last year and wasn’t playing at that level after a fairly serious injury to end last season and another injury to start this season. Kinda seems like a futile point to use in an arguement against Chia.
Its a combination of
-better goaltending ( this has taken the biggest leap)
-less injuries to impact players
-better depth up front in the bottom 6
-better transition of the puck from our D to the forwards
-better PP and PK ( goalwise, but PK has taking a shit kicking lately)
-MCDAVID
all the above can be measured by various stats
also could add that
-not having a new coach ( that wasnt a goof) at the start of the year for the first time since McDavid had milk on his lips has helped too
– a better balanced lineup that helps us play/compete in different ways to be successful has also helped too
Moose,
Blackwolf,
Thanks muchly, gents.
frjohnk,
The effect of injuries on the team’s success in the past and this year can’t be over-stated…. Okay, it can, lol, we can overstate anything here, but it has been a season-killer in days gone by and for once we’ve been relatively healthy. Depth of course plays into this–and it has improved–but there were a couple of seasons in there no team could’ve survived.
There’s a few around. Russell was full time in the NHL at 20 YO however.
I’d love to understand why NJ’s season turned out the way it did. They went from a team that didn’t take many shots, but didn’t give up many either, to one that takes way more shots, but gives up almost as many more against – plus their SV% has tanked.
The differences between their numbers last year and this year are so stark that it feels like there must be more to it than simply adding Hall and subtractng Larsson.
But what exactly?
@NHLFlames
#LAKvsCGY Update: Micheal Ferland will not play tonight. He is under observation for the mumps.
Hope it doesn’t spread to LAK and they bring it here.
Interesting fact of the day:
The Atlanta Thrashers have won more recently at the Honda Centre than the Calgary Flames.
Last Flames win was in January of 2004.
Last Thrashers win was during October 2010.
yup. Back of the envelope calculation.
Last year we had 3 players who played more than 90% of the games. Hall, Letestu and Sekera. Korpse and Drai were close
This year, its 11. And the most significant player who is out of the 90% is probably Russell.
frjohnk,
It’s your opinion that goaltending has taken the biggest leap …And that might be the case, I’m just saying the shot data presented here is too flawed to convince me of same…
a) My guess is some from both columns
b) Things that have varied wildly
i) Medium threat shots not going in at a high rate (as per Padre above)
ii) Top 9 forwards via total TOI and their GF%:
Lists sorted by total TOI
Last year:
Player GF%
TAYLOR.HALL 52.7
LEON.DRAISAITL 51.7
JORDAN.EBERLE 45.5
MARK.LETESTU 29.6
TEDDY.PURCELL 49.3
RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 45.1
LAURI.KORPIKOSKI 32.0
NAIL.YAKUPOV 41.4
MATT.HENDRICKS 48.2
BENOIT.POULIOT 44.8
CONNOR.MCDAVID 50.7
IIRO.PAKARINEN 37.1
This year:
Player GF%
CONNOR.MCDAVID 61.2
LEON.DRAISAITL 52.2
PATRICK.MAROON 60.2
MILAN.LUCIC 50.8
JORDAN.EBERLE 54.6
RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 44.3
ZACK.KASSIAN 54.0
BENOIT.POULIOT 47.6
MARK.LETESTU 51.0
DRAKE.CAGGIULA 47.1
ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 64.7
MATT.HENDRICKS 46.2
Lots of wild variation there. Going from Letesut, Purcell and Korpse at positions 4,5, and 7 to Lucic, Eberle and Kassian is quite the variation
Having Letestu 4th at 30% last year and 9th this year at 51% is like trading for a new player. Lots of other examples there too.
iii) Top 6 Dmen via Total TOI and their GF%
Last year
Player GF%
ANDREJ.SEKERA 42.3
DARNELL.NURSE 41.7
MARK.FAYNE 44.4
ERIC.GRYBA 47.3
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 52.9
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 39.0
This year:
Player GF%
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 51.9
ADAM.LARSSON 55.7
ANDREJ.SEKERA 51.4
KRIS.RUSSELL 53.3
DARNELL.NURSE 53.5
MATTHEW.BENNING 59.3
Well those barely look like one another at all, so boatloads of variation there too.
So, has something varied wildly on the Oilers from last year to this year?
A question with many less answers would be “what hasn’t varied on the Oilers from last year to this year”
Addendum: Having 2nd year McDavid first as opposed to rookie McDavid 11th is obviously the single largest variable.
I’m guessing you need to personally witness 3 McDavid miracles before you’re willing to proclaim him hockey Jesus.
I don’t think a lot of people think he’s as good as he actually is. If he was faster he’d be top 5 in the league IMO. Imagine in 2-3 years.
It’s fitting than even in this decade of analytics…The goalies still seem to get the glory or the goat horns
Just a guess.
Not many ex-owners around.
I guessed you weren’t referring to ex-EIG person as that sales happened 9 years ago while Halak was traded 7 years ago, whereas Barrie is still connected a bit through a couple different means.
Hot goalies can trump all
Crappy goalies can derail a juggernaut
That will never change
Not really the point of the comment. However Davidson was a massive overpay for DD. A 4th or the like should have been enough. Chiarelli must not have wanted to take an extra contract. If LGK takes Reinhart, the Oilers will have gone from having a leftorium to having only 3 NHL LHD unless they re-sign Russell.
Oesterle would be small for a forward, not a lot of D in the NHL that size, yes there are a handful. LaLeggia is playing LW now. I should have worded it better.
Davidson’s injuries set him back, players recover. To me that trade was an overpay for a player like DD.
That is where they should be going but i’m not sure Chiarelli sees it that way.
Woodguy v2.0,
Count me amongst the uninformed I guess but all of these NHLers who are coming down with the mumps, are they all spawn from anti-Vaxxer parents who didn’t have their kid immunized as a toddler?
I mean, I thought if you received the MMR vaccine you were good to go, no? Maybe my science is sketchy… are Crosby’s folks anti-vaxxers?
Just seems so odd that these highly paid, highly insured professionals/assets are coming down with an easily preventable, nearly eradicated communicable disease…
Sure.
Relative SV% isn’t a way to measure it though.
If you believe that then you must believe he is much worse this year (RelSV% -1.09) compared to last year (+3.22)
People have looked at Relative SV% up and down.
No year over year correlation.
Highly, highly dependent on QoC (i.e – 3rd pair Dmen rate highly via this metric because they play a lot against players who aren’t in the NHL because they can score goals)
As they should since he was top pair last year.
That said, with all this talk about NJD SV% I stumbled on this:
Last year 5v5 SV% compared to this year:
Schneieder last year: .9295
Schneider this year .9222
Kinkaid last year: .9054
Kinkaid this year: .9177
Huh? Schnieder isn’t far *that* off and Kinkaid is better.
Turns out the big movement for Schneider is on 4v5.
4v5 year over year
Schneider last year .8894
Schneider this year .8706
Kinkaid last year .8776
Kinkaid this year .8877
I wonder if Schneider was fighting a groin injury?
Hampers side to side movement and 4v5 is dependent on that.
Nothing you have concluded here I disagree with and I don’t believe any of the the things you listed someone might hypothetically believe.
Maybe Schneider misses Larsson’s eye glow and Swedish meatballs at the team potluck dinners. Who knows?
Even with both vaccinations mumps protection is not 100%. So herd immunity to reduce exposure is still important. Anti vaccination is one negative factor for herd immunity but there is another angle for most NHL players:
https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.3996880
“Providing a second round of the vaccine wasn’t practised until the early 1990s, which has led to a small gap in the herd immunity for those born between 1970 and 1994.Providing a second round of the vaccine wasn’t practised until the early 1990s, which has led to a small gap in the herd immunity for those born between 1970 and 1994. Anyone born before then likely had the mumps as a child.”
~So only Jagr is 100% protected~ 😉
I guess Connor is safe then. Yay! Or not. Boo!
I think its his mustache.
Also,
Because beating a dead horse is fun.
Schneider splits this year vs last year:
5v5
Last year .9295
Oct-Dec .9035
Jan-now .9333
4v5
Last year .8894
Oct-Dec .8725
Jan – now .8687
Slow start this year and 4v5 has been a problem all year.
Woodguy v2.0,
Man after watching the Bear Mountain real estate fiasco losing hundreds of millions of an HSBC’s loan…I’d fear for my karma balance even being in the same room as Len
In my business I have met many developers.
Most instantly make me want to go wash my hands.
Good find!
Not completely safe due to the nhl herd being exposed. But at least he’s an age that was scheduled for both vaccinations
Definitely the moustache.