ROLL OVER BEETHOVEN

by Lowetide

On a night when little rhymed, there was no need to tell Tchaikovsky the news. Rembrandt left during the first period, and Picasso fell asleep. No matter. Two points secured, with the captain posting the game winner and Cam Talbot delivering a wonderful performance. Screw the style points, there is a playoff berth to be won.

 NO PARTICULAR PLACE TO GO, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2016: 8-8-0, goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 4-2-1, goal differential +6
  • Oilers after 71, 2015-16: 27-37-7, goal differential -41
  • Oilers after 71, 2016-17: 38-24-9, goal differential +22

The year over year is fantastic, Edmonton sitting at 85 points after 71 games and projecting a final record of  44-28-10 for 98 points. On a night when there were 19 (!) giveaways, and the all situations Corsi was 46-71, it is fair to say the Oilers played down to the level of their opponent. No news there, we have seen it before. The difference? Edmonton won the game. That’s important.

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Detroit, NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, Montreal (Expected: 2-2-0) (Actual 1-2-1)
  • At home to: Dallas, Boston, Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 3-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
  • On the road to: Anaheim, Colorado (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-5-1, 15 points in 13 games
  • Current results: 4-2-1, 9 points in 7 games

Edmonton is right on track now, a .500 record from here on in gets the club 15 points and that was  our line in the sand. There is an encouraging consistency to this season, a certain satisfaction in watching the team gobble up points in all manner of ways. Miles to go, but winning is something this team can do now.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Benning were 14-13 in 12:46, but 2-10 against Baertschi-Horvat-Granlund. Nurse went 2-5 with Russell and played a little with Larsson, too. No. 25 had a really nice look driving in as the trailer, if he can get an accurate shot in that situation there are goals there. He can wheel, and that should have uses on offense.
  • Matt Benning is not as creative since the concussion, but is also playing a simpler game. I expect we see that offensive flair return when he gets comfortable again, but he isn’t costing the team with his current level of play. Fantastic rookie.
  • Sekera-Russell went 11-22 in 16:06, including 1-8 with the Desharnais line. I am about one week away from writing some negative things about that 3line’s Corsi, by the way. Went 1-11 against Sedin-Sedin-Chaput, those twins can drive a fan insane. Pairing played the Horvat line to a draw.
  • Andrej Sekera saves this team a lot of heartbreak with heady plays, he is a key component on this team.
  • Klefbom-Larsson 6-20 together, including 2-7 with McDavid and 1-6 with Nuge. Le holy. Went 1-6 against the Sedins, 0-6 against Horvat. Despite all that, I really didn’t think the good chances favored Vancouver, but will say that the possession numbers fairly reflect the field position. Edmonton couldn’t get the McDavid line heading north with this pairing, and that needs to not happen.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 33 of 33, and has a SP of .921, which ranks him No. 7 among starters. His EV strength save percentage, .930, also ranks him No. 7, and his PP SP is .874 (No. 16). You may recall his special teams SP has been a strength this season and in the past, but that number has been falling for some time now.
  • Numbers via NHL.com, HockeyStats.ca and NaturalStatTrick.

1LINE

  • The goal was gorgeous, terrific shot and we should never take him granted. The Oilers needed that goal, imagine losing a game to VCR and how differently this next week would have set itself up if he doesn’t score.
  • Line went 10-11 and got the most done with Nurse-Benning on the ice. Knocked the Cramarossa-Sutter-Magna line 9-4, but were 3-7 against those blasted Sedins. Canucks ran McDavid against Sbisa most often among defensemen, I have no explanation beyond experimentation.
  • Leon Draisaitl had a fine night by my eye. Passing well, he also had a goal-mouth chance where the puck was dancing and then another later in the game. He has 63 points now, wonderful season.

2LINE

  • Until McDavid’s goal, this line was my choice to get the first one. Played well and at a fast pace, Nuge had a full tank last night.
  • Line went 12-17 together and just 3-6 with the Swedish pairing. Went 4-10 against Baertschi-Horvat-Granlund and I thought that Canucks trio was dangerous against the RNH line. I am not certain Baertschi is going to score enough to stay on that line, but the other two have real chem.

3LINE

  • Line went 11-9 together and had an interesting split with two pairings. Trio went 1-7 with Sekera-Russell and 7-2 with Nurse-Benning. A lot of that probably has to do with opponent, but an interesting line.
  • Went 0-3 against the Sedins but 7-3 against Horvat.
  • There is quite a bit of chaos and some assignment issues right now with this line. Does that have to do with Desharnais being new? Important stuff, because if the Oilers lose to LAK Monday night due to a missed assignment or poor communication, how much is the increased offense worth?
  • Pouliot is getting back to his right place. Aggressive on the check, getting in the way. Good player.

4LINE

  • Mark Letestu, fourth liner, has 14 goals, nine on the power play. That is one more power-play goal than Sam Gagner, for those who are following along.
  • Drake Caggiula played well in my opinion, Anton Slepyshev too. The line didn’t play that much, but I like this 4line quite a bit.
  • The line went 6-7 together, that’s good considering they were crushed (0-5) in 97 seconds against the Sedins. Went 6-3 against Boucher-Shore-LaBate.

STANDINGS

Edmonton has the poorest performance of these teams over the last 10 games, but as the last remnants of February melt away the Oilers should have a better record than several clubs (in last 10). Massive game tonight, you can cheer for either team to lose, but pray it is in regulation. Anaheim hasn’t disappeared either, that will be a story to watch.

SUNDAY NOTES

  • Markus Niemelainen scored twice for Saginaw last night, has three on the year. The mobile defender with size could find his way to Bakersfield after his junior season is over. Patrick Williams covers the AHL for NHL.com and Sportsnet, and tweeted this out yesterday.
  • Tyler Benson will soon see a specialist about his groin injury according to Rick Dhaliwal of 1130 Sports. Williams speculates about Benson also heading to Bakersfield, but that might be conditioning or testing his possible availability if the injury is coming around. Guy Flaming had WHL broadcaster Bill Wilms on this week, he mentioned that the injury to Benson may be similar to the one Kevin Lowe and Marc Pouliot had as Oilers. Podcast is here.
  • Mark Divver of The Providence Journal is a worthwhile follow, he always has interesting items. He reports that Oilers scouts Kelly Buchberger and Scott Harlow were in to see draft prospects Vincent Deslauriers and William Lagesson.
  • Graham McPhee scored a shorthanded goal for Boston College last night.
  • Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear went head to head in WHL action last night. Bear had blank boxcars, but Jones picked up an assist and was +4.
  • Condors won again last night, Jesse Puljujarvi with an assist and five shots on goal.
  • Greg Chase had a goal and an assist in that game, now 42, 3-8-11 on the year.
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npanciroli

Definitely the moustache.

N64

Chachi: I guess Connor is safe then. Yay! Or not. Boo!

Not completely safe due to the nhl herd being exposed. But at least he’s an age that was scheduled for both vaccinations

spoiler

Woodguy v2.0: 4v5 year over year
Schneider last year .8894
Schneider this year .8706

Good find!

Woodguy v2.0

kgo:
Woodguy v2.0,

Man after watching the Bear Mountain real estate fiasco losing hundreds of millions of an HSBC’s loan…I’d fear for my karma balance even being in the same room as Len

In my business I have met many developers.

Most instantly make me want to go wash my hands.

kgo

Woodguy v2.0,

Man after watching the Bear Mountain real estate fiasco losing hundreds of millions of an HSBC’s loan…I’d fear for my karma balance even being in the same room as Len

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi: Maybe Schneider misses Larsson’s eye glow and Swedish meatballs at the team potluck dinners. Who knows?

I think its his mustache.

Also,

Because beating a dead horse is fun.

Schneider splits this year vs last year:

5v5
Last year .9295
Oct-Dec .9035
Jan-now .9333

4v5
Last year .8894
Oct-Dec .8725
Jan – now .8687

Slow start this year and 4v5 has been a problem all year.

Chachi

N64: Even with both vaccinations mumps protection is not 100%. So here immunity to reduce exposure is still important. Anti vaccination is one part but there is another angle for most NHL players:

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.3996880

“Providing a second round of the vaccine wasn’t practised until the early 1990s, which has led to a small gap in the herd immunity for those born between 1970 and 1994.Providing a second round of the vaccine wasn’t practised until the early 1990s, which has led to a small gap in the herd immunity for those born between 1970 and 1994. Anyone born before then likely had the mumps as a child.”

~So only Jagr is 100% protected~ ?

I guess Connor is safe then. Yay! Or not. Boo!

N64

Robinthe403:
Woodguy v2.0,

Count me amongst the uninformed I guess but all of these NHLers who are coming down with the mumps, are they all spawn from anti-Vaxxer parents who didn’t have their kid immunized as a toddler?

I mean, I thought if you received the MMR vaccine you were good to go, no?Maybe my science is sketchy…are Crosby’s folks anti-vaxxers?

Just seems so odd that these highly paid, highly insured professionals/assets are coming down with an easily preventable, nearly eradicated communicable disease…

Even with both vaccinations mumps protection is not 100%. So herd immunity to reduce exposure is still important. Anti vaccination is one negative factor for herd immunity but there is another angle for most NHL players:

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.3996880

“Providing a second round of the vaccine wasn’t practised until the early 1990s, which has led to a small gap in the herd immunity for those born between 1970 and 1994.Providing a second round of the vaccine wasn’t practised until the early 1990s, which has led to a small gap in the herd immunity for those born between 1970 and 1994. Anyone born before then likely had the mumps as a child.”

~So only Jagr is 100% protected~ 😉

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0: As they should since he was top pair last year.

That said, with all this talk about NJD SV% I stumbled on this:

Last year 5v5 SV% compared to this year:

Schneieder last year: .9295
Schneider this year .9222

Kinkaid last year: .9054
Kinkaid this year: .9177

Huh?Schnieder isn’t far *that* off and Kinkaid is better.

Turns out the big movement for Schneider is on 4v5.

4v5 year over year

Schneider last year.8894
Schneider this year .8706

Kinkaid last year .8776
Kinkaid this year.8877

I wonder if Schneider was fighting a groin injury?

Hampers side to side movement and 4v5 is dependent on that.

Maybe Schneider misses Larsson’s eye glow and Swedish meatballs at the team potluck dinners. Who knows?

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0: Sure.

Relative SV% isn’t a way to measure it though.

If you believe that then you must believe he is much worse this year (RelSV% -1.09) compared to last year (+3.22)

People have looked at Relative SV% up and down.

No year over year correlation.

Highly, highly dependent on QoC (i.e – 3rd pair Dmen rate highly via this metric because they play a lot against players who aren’t in the NHL because they can score goals)

Nothing you have concluded here I disagree with and I don’t believe any of the the things you listed someone might hypothetically believe.

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi: Fair, they obviously do miss Larsson.

As they should since he was top pair last year.

That said, with all this talk about NJD SV% I stumbled on this:

Last year 5v5 SV% compared to this year:

Schneieder last year: .9295
Schneider this year .9222

Kinkaid last year: .9054
Kinkaid this year: .9177

Huh? Schnieder isn’t far *that* off and Kinkaid is better.

Turns out the big movement for Schneider is on 4v5.

4v5 year over year

Schneider last year .8894
Schneider this year .8706

Kinkaid last year .8776
Kinkaid this year .8877

I wonder if Schneider was fighting a groin injury?

Hampers side to side movement and 4v5 is dependent on that.

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi: Yeah glad I wasn’t arguing that point. Also do you think maybe Larsson is a better d-man at 23 and 24 than he was at 21 and 22? Maybe?

Sure.

Relative SV% isn’t a way to measure it though.

If you believe that then you must believe he is much worse this year (RelSV% -1.09) compared to last year (+3.22)

People have looked at Relative SV% up and down.

No year over year correlation.

Highly, highly dependent on QoC (i.e – 3rd pair Dmen rate highly via this metric because they play a lot against players who aren’t in the NHL because they can score goals)

Robinthe403

Woodguy v2.0,

Count me amongst the uninformed I guess but all of these NHLers who are coming down with the mumps, are they all spawn from anti-Vaxxer parents who didn’t have their kid immunized as a toddler?

I mean, I thought if you received the MMR vaccine you were good to go, no? Maybe my science is sketchy… are Crosby’s folks anti-vaxxers?

Just seems so odd that these highly paid, highly insured professionals/assets are coming down with an easily preventable, nearly eradicated communicable disease…

admiralmark

Georges: I was watching PIT play FLA this afternoon. Crosby scored 3 goals. His linemates, Sheary and Guentzel, got assists on each of his goals. The way they attacked was mesmerizing.

CMD does take over games. Maroon and Drai are playing great with him right now. But, at some point in his career, CMD will have quicker linemates (like Sheary and Guentzel) that can read and react and skate a little bit like he does.

Then it’s not even going to be fair.

That is where they should be going but i’m not sure Chiarelli sees it that way.

Scungilli Slushy

GMB3: Don’t forget that he also confused Oesterle and Laleggia RE: remaking their career as a forward.

Davidson was a top 4 dman for a pretty small run of games last year and wasn’t playing at that level after a fairly serious injury to end last season and another injury to start this season. Kinda seems like a futile point to use in an arguement against Chia.

Oesterle would be small for a forward, not a lot of D in the NHL that size, yes there are a handful. LaLeggia is playing LW now. I should have worded it better.

Davidson’s injuries set him back, players recover. To me that trade was an overpay for a player like DD.

Scungilli Slushy

T0ML:
Yup a top 4 D man who cant make it on the Canadians … What has appeared in 3 of 7 this month for the Habs …. And struggled to maintain or get into at all the oilers lineup prior to that…..

Not really the point of the comment. However Davidson was a massive overpay for DD. A 4th or the like should have been enough. Chiarelli must not have wanted to take an extra contract. If LGK takes Reinhart, the Oilers will have gone from having a leftorium to having only 3 NHL LHD unless they re-sign Russell.

Woodguy v2.0

kgo:
It’s fitting than even in this decade of analytics…The goalies still seem to get the glory or the goat horns

Hot goalies can trump all

Crappy goalies can derail a juggernaut

That will never change

Woodguy v2.0

kgo:
Woodguy v2.0,

Why Len Barrie? I mean that’s funny cause he’s a schmuck but I don’t get the connection

Just a guess.

Not many ex-owners around.

I guessed you weren’t referring to ex-EIG person as that sales happened 9 years ago while Halak was traded 7 years ago, whereas Barrie is still connected a bit through a couple different means.

kgo

It’s fitting than even in this decade of analytics…The goalies still seem to get the glory or the goat horns

Scungilli Slushy

npanciroli:
I’m gonna go old school, Larsson is +18 and all that matters is GF%. Best defender we have had in a long time.

I don’t think a lot of people think he’s as good as he actually is. If he was faster he’d be top 5 in the league IMO. Imagine in 2-3 years.

leadfarmer

kgo:
frjohnk,

It’s your opinion that goaltending has taken the biggest leap …And that might be the case, I’m just saying the shot data presented here is too flawed to convince me of same…

I’m guessing you need to personally witness 3 McDavid miracles before you’re willing to proclaim him hockey Jesus.

Woodguy v2.0

kgo: They probably don’t vary wildly or they probably don’t have a major impact?

Because something has varied wildly between this year’s oilers and last year’s.That’s the crux of this discussion….Crux is a word right?

a) My guess is some from both columns

b) Things that have varied wildly

i) Medium threat shots not going in at a high rate (as per Padre above)

ii) Top 9 forwards via total TOI and their GF%:

Lists sorted by total TOI

Last year:
Player GF%
TAYLOR.HALL 52.7
LEON.DRAISAITL 51.7
JORDAN.EBERLE 45.5
MARK.LETESTU 29.6
TEDDY.PURCELL 49.3
RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 45.1
LAURI.KORPIKOSKI 32.0
NAIL.YAKUPOV 41.4
MATT.HENDRICKS 48.2
BENOIT.POULIOT 44.8
CONNOR.MCDAVID 50.7
IIRO.PAKARINEN 37.1

This year:
Player GF%
CONNOR.MCDAVID 61.2
LEON.DRAISAITL 52.2
PATRICK.MAROON 60.2
MILAN.LUCIC 50.8
JORDAN.EBERLE 54.6
RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 44.3
ZACK.KASSIAN 54.0
BENOIT.POULIOT 47.6
MARK.LETESTU 51.0
DRAKE.CAGGIULA 47.1
ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 64.7
MATT.HENDRICKS 46.2

Lots of wild variation there. Going from Letesut, Purcell and Korpse at positions 4,5, and 7 to Lucic, Eberle and Kassian is quite the variation

Having Letestu 4th at 30% last year and 9th this year at 51% is like trading for a new player. Lots of other examples there too.

iii) Top 6 Dmen via Total TOI and their GF%

Last year
Player GF%
ANDREJ.SEKERA 42.3
DARNELL.NURSE 41.7
MARK.FAYNE 44.4
ERIC.GRYBA 47.3
BRANDON.DAVIDSON 52.9
JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 39.0

This year:
Player GF%
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 51.9
ADAM.LARSSON 55.7
ANDREJ.SEKERA 51.4
KRIS.RUSSELL 53.3
DARNELL.NURSE 53.5
MATTHEW.BENNING 59.3

Well those barely look like one another at all, so boatloads of variation there too.

So, has something varied wildly on the Oilers from last year to this year?

A question with many less answers would be “what hasn’t varied on the Oilers from last year to this year”

Addendum: Having 2nd year McDavid first as opposed to rookie McDavid 11th is obviously the single largest variable.

kgo

frjohnk,

It’s your opinion that goaltending has taken the biggest leap …And that might be the case, I’m just saying the shot data presented here is too flawed to convince me of same…

frjohnk

spoiler:
frjohnk,

The effect of injuries on the team’s success in the past and this year can’t be over-stated…. Okay, it can, lol, we can overstate anything here, but it has been a season-killer in days gone by and for once we’ve been relatively healthy.Depth of course plays into this–and it has improved–but there were a couple of seasons in there no team could’ve survived.

yup. Back of the envelope calculation.
Last year we had 3 players who played more than 90% of the games. Hall, Letestu and Sekera. Korpse and Drai were close

This year, its 11. And the most significant player who is out of the 90% is probably Russell.

GMB3

Interesting fact of the day:

The Atlanta Thrashers have won more recently at the Honda Centre than the Calgary Flames.

Last Flames win was in January of 2004.

Last Thrashers win was during October 2010.

Woodguy v2.0

@NHLFlames

#LAKvsCGY Update: Micheal Ferland will not play tonight. He is under observation for the mumps.

Hope it doesn’t spread to LAK and they bring it here.

Marc

Woodguy v2.0: also, it was a refutation of “Schneider’s having a terrible year because Larsson isn’t there” argument, not a “NJD doesn’t miss Larsson” argument.

Those are separate issues.

I’d love to understand why NJ’s season turned out the way it did. They went from a team that didn’t take many shots, but didn’t give up many either, to one that takes way more shots, but gives up almost as many more against – plus their SV% has tanked.

The differences between their numbers last year and this year are so stark that it feels like there must be more to it than simply adding Hall and subtractng Larsson.

But what exactly?

Scungilli Slushy

A’bunadh: 5’10” 170lb Kris Russell says hi!

There’s a few around. Russell was full time in the NHL at 20 YO however.

spoiler

frjohnk,

The effect of injuries on the team’s success in the past and this year can’t be over-stated…. Okay, it can, lol, we can overstate anything here, but it has been a season-killer in days gone by and for once we’ve been relatively healthy. Depth of course plays into this–and it has improved–but there were a couple of seasons in there no team could’ve survived.

spoiler

Moose,

Blackwolf,

Thanks muchly, gents.

frjohnk

kgo: Because something has varied wildly between this year’s oilers and last year’s

Its a combination of
-better goaltending ( this has taken the biggest leap)
-less injuries to impact players
-better depth up front in the bottom 6
-better transition of the puck from our D to the forwards
-better PP and PK ( goalwise, but PK has taking a shit kicking lately)
-MCDAVID

all the above can be measured by various stats

also could add that

-not having a new coach ( that wasnt a goof) at the start of the year for the first time since McDavid had milk on his lips has helped too
– a better balanced lineup that helps us play/compete in different ways to be successful has also helped too

GMB3

T0ML:
Yup a top 4 D man who cant make it on the Canadians … What has appeared in 3 of 7 this month for the Habs …. And struggled to maintain or get into at all the oilers lineup prior to that…..

Don’t forget that he also confused Oesterle and Laleggia RE: remaking their career as a forward.

Davidson was a top 4 dman for a pretty small run of games last year and wasn’t playing at that level after a fairly serious injury to end last season and another injury to start this season. Kinda seems like a futile point to use in an arguement against Chia.

Chachi

leadfarmer: I’m pretty sure about halfway through the season Dubnyk was top 3.Getting shelled again today.without Dubnyk standing on his head that team is very vulnerable to a first round exit.

3 goals against on 6 shots. Did he have another kid?

kgo

Woodguy v2.0:
kgo,

This data accounts for the location of a deflection or one timers but not the increased probability of them scoring….A major gap in the data…
Further, shots are not the be-all end-all here…How many passes have slid through the crease or into feet but not counted as a shot…Near tap-ins that are incredibly high danger but don’t show up in this data…How many of these plays occured last year but were prevented by this year’s team … We don’t know because the data doesn’t account for it…And it’s not “baked in” … I promise!

While I agree that puck movement data will help a ton, your inference here is that all of these things vary wildly from team to team and have a major impact that we can’t see with just the shots.

They probably don’t.

I promise.

They probably don’t vary wildly or they probably don’t have a major impact?

Because something has varied wildly between this year’s oilers and last year’s. That’s the crux of this discussion….Crux is a word right?

Moose

Moose: He left game Friday ill…they think it might be mumps but haven’t got tests back yet, but they are treating it as such based on symptoms.

last friday that is…i didn’t;t hear if it was positive but assume it was

Blackwolf

spoiler,

Flu. Worried about mumps.

Moose

spoiler:
Moose,

Any idea what’s up with the Barzal scratch?

He left game Friday ill…they think it might be mumps but haven’t got tests back yet, but they are treating it as such based on symptoms.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0:
All NHL goalies’ GSAA/60, minimum 1000 minutes played, all situations.

GSAA = Goals Saved Above Average.Manny’s save metric based on his shot quality formula which produces his Expected Goals (xG)

1SCOTT.DARLING0.691
2SERGEI.BOBROVSKY0.578
3JIMMY.HOWARD0.558
4BRADEN.HOLTBY0.429
5CAM.TALBOT0.427 ******
6MATTHEW.MURRAY0.416
7PHILIPP.GRUBAUER0.372
8JOHN.GIBSON0.319
9CRAIG.ANDERSON0.276
10ANTTI.RAANTA0.244
11COREY.CRAWFORD0.238
12JUUSE.SAROS0.207
13MARTIN.JONES0.206
14ANDERS.NILSSON0.203
15CAREY.PRICE0.200
16FREDERIK.ANDERSEN0.181
17JONATHAN.BERNIER0.158
18DEVAN.DUBNYK0.135
19THOMAS.GREISS0.121
20MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY0.114
21MIKE.SMITH0.095
22RYAN.MILLER0.093
23JAMES.REIMER0.088
24JACOB.MARKSTROM0.063
25CHAD.JOHNSON0.031
26ROBERTO.LUONGO0.018
27ROBIN.LEHNER0.000
28PETER.BUDAJ-0.003
29HENRIK.LUNDQVIST-0.020
30JAROSLAV.HALAK-0.034
31ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY-0.058
32CORY.SCHNEIDER-0.064 ******
33MIKE.CONDON-0.078
34BRIAN.ELLIOTT-0.085
35KEITH.KINKAID-0.096
36AL.MONTOYA-0.103
37CARTER.HUTTON-0.114
38JAKE.ALLEN-0.129
39BEN.BISHOP-0.154
40PEKKA.RINNE-0.155
41TUUKKA.RASK-0.172
42CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK-0.187
43KARI.LEHTONEN-0.201
44CAM.WARD-0.252
45STEVE.MASON-0.273
46PETR.MRAZEK-0.297
47CALVIN.PICKARD-0.315
48LOUIS.DOMINGUE-0.380
49SEMYON.VARLAMOV-0.485
50MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON-0.669
51ANTTI.NIEMI-0.671
52MICHAL.NEUVIRTH-0.688

This (along with DTMAboutHeart) are the two metrics we have that correct for shot quality.

As KGO noted, maybe we don’t have enough information to weight who is more responsible for Goals Against in terms of goalies and Dcorp, but these two metrics are the best we have.

We still don’t have “puck movement’ data, which is the next step in refining this, but its much better than straight SV% as it weights shots, is pretty good imo,and matches the eye well.

Gus and LB didn’t qualify for the above list given their TOI, but here they are via the same metric:

Gus -0.868 (329 min)
LB +0.007 (165 min)

Also,

Darling’s last 3 years:

14/15 +0.870
15/16 +0.040
16/17 +0.691

Darling’s 14/15 and 16/17 years are the two best GSAA/60 for all goalies who have played over 830 min (so 14/15 would qualify) each season from 14/15-16/17

That’s places 1 and 2 among 178 goalie seasons.His 15/16 season ranked 89/178.

If I’m the GM of CAR or DAL that’s the guy I target and I have a vet back up already (Ward, Lehtonen)

He’s UFA after this year so McPhee can’t stick his mitts in there and mess it up.

I’m pretty sure about halfway through the season Dubnyk was top 3. Getting shelled again today. without Dubnyk standing on his head that team is very vulnerable to a first round exit.

Chachi

Georges: Was this earlier in the year or still an issue?

By eye he was one of the few d-men who was willing to rush the puck up the ice last night. It was such an awful game I may have hallucinated it though.

Chachi

spoiler:
Moose,

Any idea what’s up with the Barzal scratch?

Maybe they wanted to put someone in the lineup who can score a goal.

kgo

Woodguy v2.0,

Why Len Barrie? I mean that’s funny cause he’s a schmuck but I don’t get the connection

Georges

frjohnk:

I think the issue is that he has shown after winning a puck battle in our zone, he is more apt than most other of our Dmen to just chip/flip the puck out of our zone.WheatNOil has shown that Larsson was below average in skating and passing the puck out this year.

Was this earlier in the year or still an issue?

rickithebear

Is there a stat that corelates for Dmen.
x, y location of Corsi a accumalated
Corsix,y – shot supression = open hole shots
shot supression = blocks + misses + c losed hole shots

Since Corsi against is a reflection of offences
failed zone entry
giveaways
blocks
misses – not recovered
closed shot – not recovered

open hole shotsx,y/CAx,y
that captures targeting and shot supresion
that is my critical final expectationfor open hole shot theory
taking in
1. shot supresion
2. targeting supression
3. HD theory
3.
failed forward positioning for neutral zone trap

Georges

hunter1909:
Was it me or was I dreaming or did anyone else notice the McDavid powerplay where they keep feeding him the puck at the side of the goal and he makes 6,7,8…world class passes into the slot.

McDavid’s literally taking over the games, like Orr, and all the other greats of the game.

I was watching PIT play FLA this afternoon. Crosby scored 3 goals. His linemates, Sheary and Guentzel, got assists on each of his goals. The way they attacked was mesmerizing.

CMD does take over games. Maroon and Drai are playing great with him right now. But, at some point in his career, CMD will have quicker linemates (like Sheary and Guentzel) that can read and react and skate a little bit like he does.

Then it’s not even going to be fair.

spoiler

Moose,

Any idea what’s up with the Barzal scratch?

T0ML

Yup a top 4 D man who cant make it on the Canadians … What has appeared in 3 of 7 this month for the Habs …. And struggled to maintain or get into at all the oilers lineup prior to that…..

Scungilli: One centre that can’t play a lot of 5v5 TOI, three more where the oldest guy is 23, one older tiny guy who was on his way out of the league before Chia gave a top 4 D for him.

A year more experience and a solid 3C and it should get better.

Moose

Went to the Portland-Seattle game last night to see Bear and Jones.

Both had quiet nights on the scoresheet, but it’s remarkable how much of what Seattle does runs through Bear (especially because of Barzal being scratched last night). Best player on the ice and I’d say he played close to 30 mins last night. He’s too good for that league, and from a developmental standpoint that’s all you can ask for at this stage. The foot speed is still a minor issue, and Jones is definitely the more toolsy player with maybe more upside, but I’d be surprised if Bear can’t carve out a career as a 3rd pair/2nd PP guy at the very least. Smart, poised, can pass it, and that shot. I’m anxious to see him at a higher level where the pace is faster.

Incidentally, the result last night means they face off against each other in the first round again, so one of them will be in Bakersfield in a couple weeks.

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0: also, it was a refutation of “Schneider’s having a terrible year because Larsson isn’t there” argument, not a “NJD doesn’t miss Larsson” argument.

Those are separate issues.

Fair, they obviously do miss Larsson.

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0: and hopefully Padre’s data takes the “Larsson causes better SV%” argument gets set on fire and launched into kgo’s moat.

Yeah glad I wasn’t arguing that point. Also do you think maybe Larsson is a better d-man at 23 and 24 than he was at 21 and 22? Maybe?

frjohnk

Georges: Then I ask myself, having watched nearly every minute of every game so far this season, are all of those defensemen better defensemen than Adam Larsson?

In the last minute of a game with the Oilers with a lead and the faceoff in the Oiler zone, Larsson is my first Dman I would pick to play.

I believe he is the best defensive Dman we have
I saw a stat a while back ( wished I saved it) that showed Larsson had the best “puck takeways with a hit” with the Oilers.
He is our best Dmen when battling in the corners and in front of the net.

I think the issue is that he has shown after winning a puck battle in our zone, he is more apt than most other of our Dmen to just chip/flip the puck out of our zone. WheatNOil has shown that Larsson was below average in skating and passing the puck out this year.

With a chip/flip, we lose possession more often compared to when our D skate and pass the puck out. And I believe this is part of why he gets challenged more ( most high and med danger corsi attempts when he is on the ice, some of it is Klefbom, but some of it is his lack of puck movement) This is part of why his expected goals against or another number expected PDO is higher than the majority of the Dmen on our team.

I will agree that he has played way better from the start of the year and I know the numbers were worse back then from right now. He is still adjusting to the team and system. He will only get better and I believe if he can feel comfortable and confident ( because he has the ability) to be an average to better than average puck mover he will be on his to being a very good top pairing Dman.

Along with Klefbom, Sekera, Russell, Nurse, and Benning, Larsson is my favorite Dman.