DIAMONDS IN THE DEW

by Lowetide

I learned a lot about hockey from my Dad. He would commend good plays, call bad players ‘dummies’ or ‘mutts’ and didn’t much like young players at all. I’ve told you this before, but that was an early tell about Bobby Orr. He didn’t say a negative thing about Orr, even when he was pretty new in the NHL. Sanderson was a hippie, Jim Dorey was a hood (hood was very bad) but Orr gained instant respect.

We all notice the new players who spend time with the puck. Why? A rookie who can insert himself into the game story is going to do even more good work as time goes by. If your team has a rookie doing things that involve the puck, that is a very good thing. Matt Benning is such a player, but there is some  worry from this blog’s author in regard to the fine young rookie.

Matt Benning is developing a past and the only down arrow I can find surrounds injury. He’s that rare rookie who handles the puck enough to insert himself into the story and, if he can stay healthy, we might be looking at a long-term option on RHD Top4. Benning made a pass not long ago against Philadelphia that was just so good. Faceoff, puck goes back to LHD, sends it to Benning, who waited two heartbeats and then sent a fabulous pass to Leon as he arrived in the slot. Goal! Music!

He has to stay healthy. In early February against Carolina, he got sideswiped by Viktor Stalberg and missed some games. Upon return, his offense went away and his defensive numbers also had a time: 49.3 percent Dangerous Fenwick now against elites and 3.1 percent Rel Comp against elites. WoodMoney still loves him, but that concussion packed a wallop. I hope he’s fine.

Jesse Puljujarvi is now 30gp, 10-14-24 in Bakersfield and his scoring has increased over the last couple of weeks based on Eric Rodgers’ TOI estimate. When we last looked at things, he was at 2.31/60 scoring in all disciplines. Here is the latest, along with the rest of the prospect forwards in Bakersfield.

CONDORS F PROSPECTS (RODGERS’ ESTIMATED TOI)

  • Boxcars and situational stats are from AHL.com, the rest is Rodgers.
  • Puljujarvi has seen an uptick in the last two weeks, and that period has included a cooling down period for Anton Lander.
  • I think it’s fair to say Jesse Puljujarvi’s AHL time has been a success and was the right thing to do. We are still trying to figure him out as an offensive player, but this 30-game stretch in the AHL has shown a lot.
  • Rodgers tracks all this stuff several times a year, allowing me to double back to Jan. 1 and Joey Laleggia’s move to LW. The absence of alternatives clears the mind, and the Oilers aren’t flush with scoring forward prospects. With that in mind, it seems reasonable to regard the former defenseman as one of the best scoring prospects in the pro system. He might get some NHL time.
  • Jujhar Khaira’s AHL time was textbook in terms of development. His NHL time has been injury prone, but suspect we have seen enough to project him onto next season’s roster. 4L, we’ll say. Edmonton’s ability to draft, develop and deploy forwards through their AHL system has been a very difficult thing for them to do this century. Khaira shows it can be done.
  • Let’s not go crazy, but there are signs of life for Greg Chase here. He is separating just a little bit from the other prospects in the pack.

YOUNG OILERS FORWARDS, 2016-17

  • I have been spending a lot of time in this area during 2016-17, because value contracts are going to be very important for this group.
  • Tyler Pitlick was enjoying a splendid season before injury, he was running a fantastic shooting percentage that would have (likely) corrected by season’s end. Still, hedoes have a good shot, and he shoots a lot.
  • Iiro Pakarinen hasn’t played a lot this year, so there isn’t a lot of story. His possession numbers are good so far this year, but a small sample size. Last season he was not impressive in possession. I’m uncertain about where this player fits.
  • Anton Lander got 200 games in the NHL as a No. 40 overall selection. That is a successful draft pick.
  • Anton Slepyshev has played basically half a season and shown well enough to have an inside track on a job next year, in my opinion. His possession numbers aren’t fabulous but he can do a lot of things and has an actual NHL shot. He could be one of the winners in this group.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi has posted an interesting season, it’s easy to look at these NHL numbers and wonder. The key item is the shooting percentage (2.4), something he improved in the AHL (11.4). JP’s 88 shots in 30 AHL games are also a positive. This won’t count as breaking news, but extremely likely he will be the most successful player on this list.
  • Drake Caggiula’s recent performances are most welcome, as we attempt to get his offense surrounded. His shooting percentage is a little shy and we have 53 games as a sample, so we are beginning to get a feel for his ability. Most common linemates are Slepyshev and Benoit Pouliot in a season of struggle, so we need to factor that in as well. I don’t think we know yet.
  • Jujhar Khaira is extremely likely to be in the NHL next season, hopefully with the Oilers. I really like his game.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back! 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. A funny thing happened on the way to the Sharks and Wild winning their divisions. Plus, can the Oilers win the Pacific?
  • Bryan Brant, Roster Point. A massive site designed to tie players with teams, there are all kinds of interesting things about it, including a new ranking system.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers coming down the stretch with a chance to win the division. How much credit should Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan receive?
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue/The SuperFan. Oilers in possession continue to slide. Why?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Centre of attention

Lowetide: I couldn’t forget Jim Dorey if I tried. I thought he was awesome. Mad as a hatter, but awesome.

For some reason I remember watching OHL games during the spring of 2015, and the Eerie play by play crew nick named Connor the “Mad Hatter”

For awhile, I didn’t get it.

Seeing him bend the space-time continuum while rending defensive pairs to shreds I am starting to get it now 🙂 The kid is 100% nuts.

Crazy Pedestrian

Pescador: Traded for nothing? Did he mean Matt Hendricks?
Part of me wished it had gone the other way for him, Varlamov, Steve Mason, Bryzgalov, Hammond come to mind. Yes different players & circumstances but sometimes guys rebound sometimes they keep sliding.
When he started leaving Edmonton with 2 points every single damn time, it pissed me off. 17 saves in front of the worst trap team since NJD circa 2002. He would constantly chirp his old teammates on the ice. He was acting like the Oilers made a huge mistake in trading him. I remember it differently, the team was shitty but he gave up on them just as hard. He was no Mike Smith.
Whenever the Oilers play the Wild, fuck that guy!

On the note of trap teams… has anyone noticed how many more teams are playing the trap now a days!? And most of the teams that play it regularly are in a playoff position!! What’s up with that?!?!

Bos8

In the late sixties, Toronto brought in four young D that looked like cookie cutters. McKinney, Dorey, Glennie and Pelyk. The future looked bright.

Pescador

LMHF#1:
Dubnyk himself said that he didn’t really care, would ignore goalie coaches and wouldn’t have turned it around if he hadn’t fallen on his face and been traded for nothing. I can’t remember where the quote is but I’m sure someone out there can.

Should the Oilers psych/player development/guidance department have been able to find and fix this? Probably, but there were bigger fires out there. The fact that no one was able to salvage Patrick O’Sullivan, despite his being a ridiculously talented hockey player, shows how limited NHL teams’ abilities still are in this area.

Traded for nothing? Did he mean Matt Hendricks?
Part of me wished it had gone the other way for him, Varlamov, Steve Mason, Bryzgalov, Hammond come to mind. Yes different players & circumstances but sometimes guys rebound sometimes they keep sliding.
When he started leaving Edmonton with 2 points every single damn time, it pissed me off. 17 saves in front of the worst trap team since NJD circa 2002. He would constantly chirp his old teammates on the ice. He was acting like the Oilers made a huge mistake in trading him. I remember it differently, the team was shitty but he gave up on them just as hard. He was no Mike Smith.
Whenever the Oilers play the Wild, fuck that guy!

dsr29

I love how often you mention Jim Dorey. He’s a family friend and his son is amazed that the Internet remembers who he is.

JD_Wry

My favorite subtext to Doobiegate, was that Hunter’s favorite mgmt team fired the goalie coach after jettisoning Devan.

Woodguy v2.0

The Original JDI: So you’re saying that the 13/14 Oilers were much worse than the 10/11, 11/12, or 12/13 teams? Because in the three years previous to his crater season (or question season), he put up rather good numbers. Specifically, a .916, .914, and a .921 in the shortened season.

Yeah, there’s not an argument there.

The Oilers were not markedly different in 13/14 than the previous 3 years where they finished 30th, 29th and 24th.

You can make a good argument they only got to 24th in 12/13 because of Doobie.

Plus, I posted the GSAA numbers which come from a weighted shot average which is geared to remove “bad team” bias that we see in SV%.

Woodguy v2.0

kinger_OIL:
Ducey,

– Just to follow-up on this: he was doing fine, playing less than half the games as an Oiler.

– Then he got MacT’d: and was both given the keys as the starter, and disparaged by the GM.

– so he failed as the starter with the Oil,bounced around untill he was ready and is the starter now

– Just another example IMO ofthe Oil and not having enough to put guys in position to succeed and/or not being good enough full stop.It’s a combo of the two

– McD changes everything: every player on the team is better because he is so awesome

Very fair.

My only quibble is “less than half”

In 12/13 (his best year and the year after which MacT “asked the question”) he played 38 of 48 games (lockout)

That is a starter’s workload, albeit in an abbreviated season.

The year before in 11/12 he appeared in 47 games of 82. Almost a starters load, but certainly more than half.

Aron_S

Speaking of Dubnyk, there have been some comments lately on roundtables (I think Friedman is the last respected voice I heard mention it), that Minnesota could turn their recent losing surge around if Dubnyk could stop the puck.

Was that an unfair knock on him? Has anyone noticed if he’s been letting softies and beachballs in again lately? I haven’t caught any Wild highlights, so haven’t noticed either way.

His save percentage has dropped from .933 at the beginning of March to .926 today. That’s not a significant drop, but it is consistent for the past month.

http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/player/4383/gamelog

JD_Wry

delooper: Dubnyk would have never fallen on his face so hard if it wasn’t for the awful team he was playing for.

So you’re saying that the 13/14 Oilers were much worse than the 10/11, 11/12, or 12/13 teams? Because in the three years previous to his crater season (or question season), he put up rather good numbers. Specifically, a .916, .914, and a .921 in the shortened season.

TheBusDriver86

I miss Pitlick. 🙁

delooper

Sure, but Dubnyk would have never fallen on his face so hard if it wasn’t for the awful team he was playing for.

If he had some decent structure to play with, he likely would have been fine.

Just look at the Oilers now. They’ve got a servicable D. One of the strongest forward groups in the league. And all of a sudden, they’re playing good structured hockey and all their goalies look pretty good.

Not only that, but players that might have never emerged on the previous team (Benning, Nurse, and perhaps the Kassian bet might not have worked, etc) are suddenly looking like good players.

LMHF#1

Dubnyk himself said that he didn’t really care, would ignore goalie coaches and wouldn’t have turned it around if he hadn’t fallen on his face and been traded for nothing. I can’t remember where the quote is but I’m sure someone out there can.

Should the Oilers psych/player development/guidance department have been able to find and fix this? Probably, but there were bigger fires out there. The fact that no one was able to salvage Patrick O’Sullivan, despite his being a ridiculously talented hockey player, shows how limited NHL teams’ abilities still are in this area.

frjohnk

Woodguy v2.0:
kinger_OIL,

– Dubnyk: he was a few years (and teams) away from being the goalie he is now

TeamSv%
EDM91.57
EDM91.45
EDM92.06
EDM/NSH89.10
ARI/MIN92.92
MIN91.80
MIN92.58

He’s actually been remarkably stead since 11/12 until the twins and MacT and whatever else crashed him in 13/14

TeamGSAA/60
EDM0.29
EDM0.20
EDM0.38
EDM/NSH-0.66
ARI/MIN0.25
MIN-0.05
MIN0.05

If we use Goals Saved Above Average, he was actually better as an Oiler until MacT asked the question.

I don’t think he could have stayed here once he cratered, but I’m not sure he craters if MacT doesn’t run at the mouth in the pre-season avail.

Doobie has mentioned it multiple times in interviews as it got in his head.

I really believe the environment around Duby at the start of that year was the biggest reason he face planted. And when I say environment I mean the inability of the Oilers team to play the swarm correctly. This led to many odd man rushes/ guys alone in front. Duby got burnt and this affected his confidence.

kinger_OIL

Woodguy v2.0,

– but you agree that for a myriad of reasons, he was thrust into a roll with the Oil that he wasn’t prepared/able to fulfill: he clearly wasn’t starting goalie calibre: that’s my point (and ducey’s)

delooper

admiralmark: I always felt Dubie was an NHL goalie. But his last season was so horrendous even I lost faith. Looking back however 3 successive years he had a GAA of .914 or better. And that was in the midst of the Oiler dumpster fire that was. So perhaps lesson learned 3 years in a row of good stats considering the team he was on should of bought him another year to straighten it out.

I think if you put any hall-of-famer goalie in his prime in front of the “dumpster” Oilers teams 2008-2015, they’d look just as bad.

Goalies are more heavily affected by the general functionality of the rest of the team.

admiralmark

delooper:
Dubnyk always was a good goaltender.The Oilers just made it near-impossible to see it.

Let’s face it, we all admit goalies are hard to evaluate.Oilers and Oiler fans did a terrible job of it.

I always felt Dubie was an NHL goalie. But his last season was so horrendous even I lost faith. Looking back however 3 successive years he had a GAA of .914 or better. And that was in the midst of the Oiler dumpster fire that was. So perhaps lesson learned 3 years in a row of good stats considering the team he was on should of bought him another year to straighten it out.

delooper

Dubnyk always was a good goaltender. The Oilers just made it near-impossible to see it.

Let’s face it, we all admit goalies are hard to evaluate. Oilers and Oiler fans did a terrible job of it.

kinger_OIL

Ducey,

– Just to follow-up on this: he was doing fine, playing less than half the games as an Oiler.

– Then he got MacT’d: and was both given the keys as the starter, and disparaged by the GM.

– so he failed as the starter with the Oil, bounced around untill he was ready and is the starter now

– Just another example IMO of the Oil and not having enough to put guys in position to succeed and/or not being good enough full stop. It’s a combo of the two

– McD changes everything: every player on the team is better because he is so awesome

Ducey

Woodguy v2.0:
kinger_OIL,

– Dubnyk: he was a few years (and teams) away from being the goalie he is now

TeamSv%
EDM91.57
EDM91.45
EDM92.06
EDM/NSH89.10
ARI/MIN92.92
MIN91.80
MIN92.58

He’s actually been remarkably stead since 11/12 until the twins and MacT and whatever else crashed him in 13/14

TeamGSAA/60
EDM0.29
EDM0.20
EDM0.38
EDM/NSH-0.66
ARI/MIN0.25
MIN-0.05
MIN0.05

If we use Goals Saved Above Average, he was actually better as an Oiler until MacT asked the question.

I don’t think he could have stayed here once he cratered, but I’m not sure he craters if MacT doesn’t run at the mouth in the pre-season avail.

Doobie has mentioned it multiple times in interviews as it got in his head.

He mentioned somewhere that when he hit rock bottom he started some sort of vision/ visualization training, and credited this with his turn around.

Whether he ever does that in EDM, who knows? Likely not. Had he stayed in EDM he could blame the Oilers, etc. Once you are on your 5th team, been in the minors and cleared waivers, it becomes clear where the issue is.

Woodguy v2.0

Bruce McCurdy: Parse it as “Duo X & Y were involved in Z *different* goals” & Corsby/Malkin will have a healthy lead of several dozen.

They might lead everyone since Gretzky/Messier.

I want to say Sakic/Forsberg but they played together quite a bit.

Woodguy v2.0

Top 10 NHL goalies in 12/13 with minimum 1500 minutes (all situations) via Goals Saved Above Average

HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.477
CORY.SCHNEIDER 0.469
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 0.459
COREY.CRAWFORD 0.434
TUUKKA.RASK 0.422
DEVAN.DUBNYK 0.378
JIMMY.HOWARD 0.350
KARI.LEHTONEN 0.251
ANTTI.NIEMI 0.131
EVGENI.NABOKOV 0.127

Doobie was 6th a MacT had to ask the question 6 months later.

Woodguy v2.0

kinger_OIL,

– Dubnyk: he was a few years (and teams) away from being the goalie he is now

Team Sv%
EDM 91.57
EDM 91.45
EDM 92.06
EDM/NSH 89.10
ARI/MIN 92.92
MIN 91.80
MIN 92.58

He’s actually been remarkably stead since 11/12 until the twins and MacT and whatever else crashed him in 13/14

Team GSAA/60
EDM 0.29
EDM 0.20
EDM 0.38
EDM/NSH -0.66
ARI/MIN 0.25
MIN -0.05
MIN 0.05

If we use Goals Saved Above Average, he was actually better as an Oiler until MacT asked the question.

I don’t think he could have stayed here once he cratered, but I’m not sure he craters if MacT doesn’t run at the mouth in the pre-season avail.

Doobie has mentioned it multiple times in interviews as it got in his head.

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar: He isn’t skating today but McLellan hasn’t had his media avail yet so no information.

As per coach: No broken bones – a bit of swelling – close to skating today – status for LAK game is TBD

Woodguy v2.0

Lowetide:
Jason Gregor‏Verified account @JasonGregor11m11 minutes ago
MoreBenning is day to day. He was close to skating today and will be available this week according to McLellan. #Oilers

Good news!

*whew*

Woodguy v2.0

Since development is a topic today, thought I’d put this out there.

The Ducks and Lightning have been the best at drafting and developing over the last few years.

Here’s the Ducks AHL roster with future NHLers over the years:

10/11 – Pat Maroon, Kyle Palmeri, Nick Bonino, Matt Belesky, Peter Holland

11/12 – Maroon, Holland, Pameri, Bonino, Emmerson Etem, Devante Smith-Pelly

12/13 – Maroon, Vatanen, Holland, Smith-Pelly, Etem, Hampus Lindholm, Chris Wagner

13/14 – Etem, Smith-Pelly, Wagner, Richard Rakell, William Karlsson, Vatanen, Luca Sbisa, Fredrick Andersen, John Gibson, Josh Manson

14/15 – Wagner, Karlsson, Etem, Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Rakell, Gibson, Michael Sgarbossa, Manson

15/16 – Montour, Theodore, Nick Ritchie, Sgarbossa, Gibson – its early so may be some others here

Some of these guys haven’t played 200 yet, but I only put in the ones I thought to be a lock to do it.

Sgarbossa is at 44, Wagner at 88, but I think they’ll qualify, the rest are slam dunks or have already done it.

Ducks draft well, but imo they develop well too as they PLAY THE KIDS HIGH UP IN THE BATTING ORDER REGARDLESS OF WINS/LOSSES.

Now some of that may have been lack of $$$ to sign vets in Norfolk, but if it was they stumbled upon a great system.

Now that the Duck’s AHL affiliate has moved to San Diego there is more money (they average over 8000 people/gm) they had added the odd vet, but only the odd one.

This year they have Cory Tropp on a 2 way deal ($250K in AHL) and AHL only deal for Laganiere (who was a Duck prospect for 3 years)

I’d probably like it more without Tropp, but I understand the need to be slightly more competitive in San Diego than in Norfolk and the funds to do it, but they aren’t loading up on vets either in the key spots.

classict

Bruce McCurdy,

Yea Malkin has 0 pts with Crosby at even strength.

I don’t know how many of those might be combined on the PP, but even if Malkin got a point on all 37 of Crosby’s PP points, that would still be 117 ‘unique’ points.

jonrmcleod

***SPAM ALERT***

Not much new here, but I did quote one lucky Lowetide commenter:

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/03/oilers-targeting-college-star-spencer-foo/

N64

Bruce McCurdy: Parse it as “Duo X & Y were involved in Z *different* goals” & Corsby/Malkin will have a healthy lead of several dozen.

Why stop there? They have more unique minutes.

UG/U60? Lol.

OriginalPouzar

Side:
Any updates on Benning’s injury?

I know Todd said Benning was walking on it and had a welt, but has there been any updates since?

He isn’t skating today but McLellan hasn’t had his media avail yet so no information.

OriginalPouzar

While I do like JJ as a player – love his speed and physicality, I don’t see him becoming anything more than an effective 4th line player and penalty killer.

That in itself is a valuable player, however, I just don’t think he has the hands to produce the offence to bat any higher in the order. He hasn’t shown the offence at any other level and, watching his NHL time, we can see why – the hands!

With his speed, I think he can excel on the PK in time.

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy v2.0:
Eric Friesen‏ @EricJFriesen2h2 hours ago


Top scoring duos in the NHL
1. McDavid/Draisaitl – 158
2. Crosby/Malkin – 154
3. Kane/Panarin – 147

That’s awesome to see – one caveat to remember though is that both Connor and Leon have played every game (*knock on wood”) and both Malkin and Crosby have missed time.

With that being said, I don’t think Malkin and Crosby really ever play together at even strength – are they really a “duo”?

Bruce McCurdy

Woodguy v2.0: Aron Vad‏ @aronvad54m54 minutes ago


@EricJFriesen @Woodguy55 Minutes played together at E.S.
1. McDavid/Draisaitl – 570
2. Crosby/Malkin – 7
3. Kane/Panarin – 909

This is important.

Parse it as “Duo X & Y were involved in Z *different* goals” & Corsby/Malkin will have a healthy lead of several dozen.

Bag of Pucks

kinger_OIL:
Ca$h-McMoney!,

– I agree with you.A lot of the despair about this team was not realizing that the guys we had just weren’t good enoughplayers and/or played way to high up the batting order/not ready:

–Gagner, as a 3rd line guy was fine elsewhere
– Yak
– Dubnyk: he was a few years (and teams) away from being the goalie he is now
– Brodziak fine as a 3rd line winger
– RNH and Ebs <<< McD Drai as 1st liners
– Jultz as a PP specialist, protected

– We just did had not enough good players, and the ones who were “decent” were played above their established abilities.

–I can’t think of one player that has left this team, in last 5 years that went on to be significantly better than they were here, in the season they left (only Dubynk was a real fail, but he sucked in Nashville and Arizona before landing in a good spot)

– We just didn’t have good enough players or depth to develop.

– McD rises all boats…

Couldn’t agree more. The big issues with laying sole blame at the feet of player development when players fail to reach their prospect ceiling are:

1) If the development process is bad, how then do you explain the players that do thrive within the process?

2) If the development process is bad, then there should be marked improvement in a number of players exiting the system to other organizations (even if that improvement is simply from bad to mediocre).

3) Outside the lottery picks, the odds are solidly stacked in favour of failure. Imo if you respect and acknowledge the reality of those odds, you’re far less inclined to place so much weight and blame on the development process.

4) One of the key factors in most prospects failing is their inability to bring their offense to the higher level. Most HCs in the NHL will tell you they can’t coach offensive skill and production out of a prospect. They can coach defensive play, system play, conditioning habits, work habits, etc. But they can’t help the player to put the biscuit in the basket. The player has to execute on that task himself. Yakupov is the shining example here. He couldn’t consistently hit the net and being a shooter/sniper was supposed to be his greatest strength. How anyone can lay blame for an inability to hit the net at the feet of a coach is beyond me.

5) We don’t have full intel on the player motivations and commitment to their development plan. Jultz is fodder for this point. Much of the verbal surrounding this player was the alleged entitlement issues until he finally bottomed out on Pitt’s depth chart and as a result, found a renewed work ethic.

Fully agree the lack of organizational depth/cover threw many of the Oilers recent prospects to the wolves, but imo there’s a tendency to confuse roster inadequacies with development process. Once you commit to ‘burn it down’ you’re also committed to lack of cover for your rooks. That is the Catch 22 of the full teardown and rebuild. But that doesn’t presuppose that your coaches and organizations immediately lose the ability to teach and develop the prospects. Babcock is doing it in TO and TMac here. Hell, Babcock’s even making progress with his inherited vets, actually turning Kadri into a player capable of sheltering others.

Now, all that said, Renney’s comments that he fell out with management when they forced him to play the rooks above their heads does speak to a clear disconnect between coaching and management on the preferred development approach at that point in this organization’s history. So, if we want it, there’s a viable complaint for some of the prospects of that era to latch onto. But it still doesn’t address the issue that for every Yakupov and Schultz that washed out, there’s a Hall or Eberle that did not.

At the end of the day, I fully believe the cream finds a way to rise.

Side

Any updates on Benning’s injury?

I know Todd said Benning was walking on it and had a welt, but has there been any updates since?

Mariusz Czerkawski

LT.

Completely off topic, selfish question, but is there no weekend update blog for this past weekend on ON? I know the regular season/playoffs for most is over but i love that weekly blog for checking up on guys like Bear, Jones, etc.

Thanks for all you do there and here

Cheers

Dennis King

There are a few places that young Pitlick might fit in ie with 97 bcos well anyone can score there or also perhaps with 19-29.

But Pitlick is so injury-prone that you really can’t depend on him or pay him any decent amount

kinger_OIL

tcho,

You got it: those who did better elsewhere were slotted properly (and lower). We didn’t do any Adam Oates, Hall (Brett), Hossa trades where we sh%t the bed in evaluation

– I’m not terribly bullish on our prospects either, but I think its not to be expect that more than 1 or 2 potential 200 game NHL’ers reside on any good team’s development per year anyways.

tcho

kinger_OIL,

I think I’m missing what you’re saying here with the players who leave not going on to be significantly better.

You mentioned Dubnyk. Also J. Schultz, Tobias Rieder. Possibly MPS as well. However, I think I take your point that most players traded away to better teams then more-or-less perform at a slot more suited to them?

Also, I think you are being too bullish on our forward prospects. I think it’s pretty dodgy counting guys like Pitlick and Iiro the Hero in that group (age). Khaira isn’t really trending that well. Even our best prospect (Pulijaarvi – sp?) is not a guarantee (see Yakupov, Nail).

OF17

Woodguy v2.0:
Eric Friesen‏ @EricJFriesen2h2 hours ago


Top scoring duos in the NHL
1. McDavid/Draisaitl – 158
2. Crosby/Malkin – 154
3. Kane/Panarin – 147

That’s pretty incredible, actually. The Crosby/Malkin duo has fewer GP, so being above them is a bit of a mirage, but I’ll take the #1 scoring duo in the league any day.

Let’s expand those listed duos to triads to see if the Oilers keep pace.

1. Crosby/Malkin/Kessel – 219 in 206 GP
2. McDavid/Draisaitl/Eberle – 203 in 225 GP
3. Kane/Panarin/Toews – 202 in 216 GP

The Oilers have had the benefit of health, but this has also been Eberle’s worst season since his rookie year. We’re not Pittsburgh. We stack up pretty well with Chicago though. Seven more points would put the Oilers equal to Chicago’s P/G, and this is with Eberle sitting on 45 after 75GP.

npanciroli

Any Oiler bloggers provide systems analysis out there to go along with the advanced stats? I love the deep analytics analysis we have here but often I don’t see explanations for it like x team attacked the entry on the left side and coach y line matchedthis way and they play a trap system etc.

Woodguy v2.0

Dac189,

Thanks for that.

Interesting stuff.

The only thing I quibble with is:

A similar thought when comparing powerplay, in your post, you’re comparing 1st PP line vs 2nd PP line. You’re not necessarily comparing McDavid on vs off since he’s always on 1st PP.

Not really because McDavid was the only variable in 15/16 on PP1. RNH basically took his spot when he was out and the off/out GF/60 were really close so I’m comfortable saying the GF/60 is pretty much McDavid.

kinger_OIL

Lowetide: Oh God no. I’ve failed miserably if that is your takeaway. History tells us we should expect Puljujarvi and maybe one other guy (Slepy, Khaira, Pitlick) to be here long term. Go back to any era of Oilers where they had a plethora of good young forwards, and even then many don’t develop. Plus, there’s always a chance they trade another Satan, although the Oilers don’t have a Satan currently.

– I think we are on the same page: if two of those guys in minors make it long-term: that’s a great result, and also what any team should expect from their minors in any given year

– Unless you think we should have 3-4 NHLers in any given year bubbling in the minors?

– Maybe a good post one day LT, as a refresher: what is RE from AHL/college signing in any year that plays 200 games in the bigs. 2 a year seems fine by me.

Woodguy v2.0

Woodguy v2.0:
Eric Friesen‏ @EricJFriesen2h2 hours ago


Top scoring duos in the NHL
1. McDavid/Draisaitl – 158
2. Crosby/Malkin – 154
3. Kane/Panarin – 147

Aron Vad‏ @aronvad 54m54 minutes ago

@EricJFriesen @Woodguy55 Minutes played together at E.S.
1. McDavid/Draisaitl – 570
2. Crosby/Malkin – 7
3. Kane/Panarin – 909

This is important.

kinger_OIL

Ca$h-McMoney!,

– I agree with you. A lot of the despair about this team was not realizing that the guys we had just weren’t good enough players and/or played way to high up the batting order/not ready:

– Gagner, as a 3rd line guy was fine elsewhere
– Yak
– Dubnyk: he was a few years (and teams) away from being the goalie he is now
– Brodziak fine as a 3rd line winger
– RNH and Ebs <<< McD Drai as 1st liners
– Jultz as a PP specialist, protected

– We just did had not enough good players, and the ones who were "decent" were played above their established abilities.

– I can't think of one player that has left this team, in last 5 years that went on to be significantly better than they were here, in the season they left (only Dubynk was a real fail, but he sucked in Nashville and Arizona before landing in a good spot)

– We just didn't have good enough players or depth to develop.

– McD rises all boats…

Pouzar

Who are these people? I swear the narratives that creep up about Player X when they are out of sight for a while are truly mind boggling.

Ducey

LMHF#1:
Any updates lately on why they won’t play Henrik Samuelsson in Bakersfield?

Ya know, aside from the fact that the Coach down there loves playing the Ryan Hamiltons of the world?

Hamilton has not played since mid Feb.

Samuelsson is done. I think they gave him 5 games and some practices to prove it.

Clarkenstein

I don’t get the love for Khaira LT, No way should he be playing on the big team. As of now he as one asset… size. He carries a stick for no apparent reason. He can’t make or take a pass. Looked like a pee wee the other night on a pass that would have been a sure goal by 95% of players. He might turn this all around some day but for now… nada.