G80 2016-17: OILERS AT SHARKS

First, the names: Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey, Pat Conacher, Lee Fogolin Jr., Grant Fuhr, Randy Gregg, Wayne Gretzky CAPTAIN, Charlie Huddy, Pat Hughes, Dave Hunter, Don Jackson, Jari Kurri, Willy Lindstrom, Ken Linseman, Kevin Lowe, Dave Lumley, Kevin McClelland, Mark Messier, Andy Moog, Jaroslav Pouzar, Dave Semenko, Peter Pocklington, Owner Glen Sather General Manager-Coach.

When I visited the HHOF many years after the 1984 SCF, the Stanley Cup was my destination and 1984 was my first stop. Two of those names were new arrivals (Pat Conacher had been signed in October of 1983; Kevin McLelland, acquired in early December for Tom Rouston), but the first Oilers Stanley team was pretty much the Boys on the Bus. I saw all of these men, live and on television, and many of them own iconic status in this northern outpost. When great feats are achieved by any of these men, it is celebrated here. When anyone on this list suffers loss, it impacts the city, too. Fred Shero told his Philadelphia Flyers (on the day his men would win their first Stanley) “win today and we walk together forever” and that applies to these Oilers to this very day. They were a wonder and 1984 remains a special year in our town’s history.

Edmonton swept the Jets, won a 7-game classic against the Flames you could write a book about (Calgary won two OT games), swept the Minnesota North Stars, won Stanley against the NY Islanders in five games. It might have been the most emotional experience I’ve ever had as a fan. The Stanley Cup hadn’t been west in my lifetime. Five years previous the bully NHL had steamrolled my team and the WHA babies in the expansion draft. The NHL fathers had been dismissive every. damned. day. of the Oilers existence. And these young Oilers beat the whole damned league like a rented mule. I will never forget them. They were giants.

 THE POWER AND THE GLORY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-2 goal differential -3
  • Oilers in December 2015: 7-6-1, goal differential -9
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, goal differential +3
  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-5-2, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2017: 9-4-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers in February 2016: 3-8-2, goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2016: 8-8-0, goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 9-3-1, goal differential +15
  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-0, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in April 2017: 1-1-0, goal differential -1 
  • Oilers after 79, 2015-16: 30-42-7, goal differential -42
  • Oilers after 79, 2016-17: 44-26-9, goal differential +30
Edmonton impressed against Anaheim on Saturday, were shock and ugh against Los Angeles and we await tonight against the third member of the NHL California. A year ago, G80 was a 5-0 loss to the Flames.

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL

  • At home to: Anaheim (Expected:1-0-0) (Actual: 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Kings, Sharks, Canucks (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to Canucks (Expected: 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 3-1-1, seven points in five games
  • Current results: 1-1-0, two points in two games
This is a big game tonight, win and there’s a strong chance the Oilers will host their first playoff game since 2006 to start the series. Edmonton needs three more points in order to reach the century mark and there’s the matter of McDavid also hitting 100 in his second NHL season.

 OILERS TOP SCORERS, 2016-17

  • McDavid’s season is spectacular from every angle. The gap between 97 and his RW is 20, and he’s 50 points beyond his LW.
  • Leon’s season is going  to be expensive this summer, those 26 power-play points will put a large bow on a negotiating position that is very strong today.
  • Four 20-goal men, will we see another? Will CMD, Leon and Maroon hit 30 goals?
  • Mark Letesu’s 15 goals are distributed in genuinely unique fashion. Not many seasons have been divided up in this way.
  • Zack Kassian has a 5×5/60 of 1.76, and is 2-2-4 in 37 minutes 5×5 with Connor McDavid. I wonder if he emerges in more of a feature role next season.

WOODMONEY, 2016-17

  • Most of this table is from WoodMoney earlier in the week, so slightly outdated but the averages and percentages remain similar/same.
  • I added TOI with McDavid because that’s the real thing when it comes to being an Oiler this season. As you can see, we are looking at a top 4D who play almost identical minutes with 97 at 5×5. I went into this looking to see if there was a push for any defender. Looks like it is across the board even save for Nurse and that could be all kinds of things (injury, natural deployment of 97 in the big parts of the game).
  • The slotting done by WoodMoney really does offer us a chance to see who the coach believes can do the job. Among the top 4D, Adam Larsson has the best DFF percentage and DFF rel comp, which matches my eye. I do think a defenseman is dependent on his partner to a large extent, and would vote for Andrej Sekera as Edmonton’s best defenseman this season. It’s close, there are some noble warriors here.

CONDORS UPDATE

Joe Gambardella had a goal and an assist in his pro debut, what I saw of him was impressive. As Ryan Lambert and others had suggested to us, Gambardella is a demon on the forecheck and a lot of his offense comes immediately after turnovers. A better passer than I thought he’d be, and he has that sixth sense that allows him to be in good places.

Bakersfield lost and now trail Stockton Heat by two points in the race for the final playoff spot in the Pacific Division. Jesse Puljujarvi was -3 on the night, but did have some good looks when playing with Anton Lander. Jujhar Khaira had an assist and also had some nice moments. It will be a disappointing result if these team can’t grab some playoff games, lots of new pro players looking for spring at-bats.

OILERS-SAN JOSE, BY THE NUMBERS

  • Oilers (San Jose)
  • Fenwick for 5×5: 50.6 (52.1)
  • Corsi for 5×5: 49.7 (51.2)
  • Goals for 5×5: 157 (148)
  • Goals against 5×5: 135 (132)
  • Shots for percentage 5×5: 50.5 (51.9)
  • Shooting percentage 5×5: 8.25 (7.82)
  • Save Percentage 5×5: 92.75 (92.46)
  • Power Play goals for 5×4: 49 (32)
  • Penalty Kill goals against 4×5: 37 (35)
  • Source

Fairly even overall, I think Edmonton has an edge in McDavids, starting goaltending and (at least during the regular year) special teams. The health of Joe Thornton and Logan Couture seems assured for the playoffs (if not tonight), so I think it reasonable to frame the Oilers as underdogs entering the series.

THERE ARE COMPLIMENTS, AND THEN THERE’S THIS

  • Roman Josi: As a defenseman, a guy with this combination of skill is extremely tough to stop, because you want to maintain a close gap to take away his space, but in the back of your mind you know he can accelerate so quickly and burn you with his speed. So how far do you play off of him? I don’t think there’s a right answer. That’s why he’s so tough to play against.
  • Source

I quoted just one part, the entire article is outstanding. The Players’ Tribune is a fantastic site, only downside is it’ll be dark by the time you’re done clicking and reading.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are once again live at Northlands Coliseum for the 2017 Ford World Men’s Curling Championship. At 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. We’ll talk Oilers-Sharks, Gushue at the Worlds, and a few other hockey items along the way (1984, Polei).
  • Al Cameron, Director, Communications & Media Relations for Curling Canada. Putting this run by the Gushue rink in historical perspective.
  • Jake Sundstrom, Fear the Fin. Playoff preview, updates on  Jumbo and Couture.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Is the Hart race over, Letang.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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491 Responses to "G80 2016-17: OILERS AT SHARKS"

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  1. 36 percent body fat says:

    please sign Darren Raddysh.

    Kassian will have to take more of a feature if Oil trade Eberle.

    Even though we dont have elite or top end right wingers other than Eberle, the rest of the pack is useful. If Eberle is traded its not that we need an elite right wing right away. If Draisaitl goes back to center it is simply some one with a little bit of chemistry with Connor. Slep, Kassian, Pitlick and JP, Just need one of 4 to click.

  2. Richard S.S. says:

    Win tonight and the Oilers are guaranteed 2nd Place, or more. Lose and everything becomes much harder. Now, start a badly overworked Cam Talbot or a fresh Laurent Brossoit?

  3. 36 percent body fat says:

    LT, in regards to Leons bonus;

    What is the wording regarding top 10 in a category?
    What if there is a tie?
    What is minimum games played for ppg? This is huge, does Eichel at 55 or so games count?

  4. papa96 says:

    Man, some days I remember 1984 like it was yesterday. What a great year, not just for hockey. And there was that row of xxxxxxxxx on the Cup for Basil Pocklington. Those exes will march forever too.

  5. meanashell11 says:

    1984, I watched the series winner at RATT. Place was crazy. Good times!

  6. Bag of Pucks says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Win tonight and the Oilers are guaranteed 2nd Place, or more.Lose and everything becomes much harder.Now, start a badly overworked Cam Talbot or a fresh Laurent Brossoit?

    Would imagine TMac has Brossoit penciled in for the 2nd of the back to backs against VAN. Would be absolutely shocked if Cam doesn’t get the start tonight.

    Expecting a big bounceback game from Leon tonight after an off game against LA.

  7. Pouzar says:

    One minute you are watching hockey, baseball, basketball the next minute yer at the Hospital with your 7 yr talking to neurologists about why he is fainting all of a sudden. Take this shit for granted and the big guy throws the 12 to 6 curve ball.

  8. blainer says:

    Love to remember those good days LT.

    At the very ripe age of 21 years I managed to luck into an 11 game playoff package for an astounding price of $236 for all 11 games.

    A lot of money to me though back then.

    Being there at all those games was surreal for me.

    I put that night that we won the cup right up there with the most exciting times of my life.

    I find it entertaining though how most of us here come down hard on the team after a loss. We go back to 8-2 for the last ten and the sky is falling.

    This team is a contender bank on it.

    We have what I consider the best player in the world and an amazing Goaltender. This is a team i would not want to face if I am the sharks.

    Go OIL !!

  9. Pouzar says:

    Oh. Go Oilers!

  10. Chachi says:

    “The slotting done by WoodMoney really does offer us a chance to see who the coach believes can do the job. Among the top 4D, Adam Larsson has the best DFF percentage and DFF rel comp, which matches my eye.”

    Adam Larsson, passenger.

  11. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    One minute you are watching hockey, baseball, basketball the next minute yer at the Hospital with your 7 yr talking to neurologists about why he is fainting all of a sudden. Take this shit for granted and the big guy throws the 12 to 6 curve ball.

    That is terrible. I hope they figure out the problem, and fast.

  12. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar:
    One minute you are watching hockey, baseball, basketball the next minute yer at the Hospital with your 7 yr talking to neurologists about why he is fainting all of a sudden. Take this shit for granted and the big guy throws the 12 to 6 curve ball.

    I’m with you brother. Going through something very similar. Here and the Oilers are my therapy.

  13. Bag of Pucks says:

    You would think the best case scenario is going into Sunday’s game with it being a meaningless affair so TMac can rest the key guys heading into the playoffs. Off course Connor will still be pushing it with Art Ross and Hart Trophies for consideration.

    Wonder who gets the Selke nod for the Oil? Hard to make a case for Nuge with a team worst -12. Connor may get that nod as well, if not Leon. Letestu would be a dark horse for that.

  14. meanashell11 says:

    Pouzar,

    Been there. Took years to figure it out. My son had heart syncope.

    It is not fun to watch but a suggestion is to wire him up and do a tilt table test. You will know after that.

    My son is now 23 and in great shape. The fainting is now maybe once a year, especially if lacking sleep and under stress. It used to be once a week, sometimes more.

    I wont go into the treatment he had as everyone is different. If you want to know, have LT send you my email.

    Good luck.

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    1984. First year of college. Van Halen, ZZ Top, Springsteen, Bowie, Henley, U2 and Deep Purple in the charts. Oil ripping it up in the playoffs. Had a full head of a hair and Firebird with a t-top. Those were the days! lol

    Only downside I can recall is the emergence of AIDs. Going to the bars pre-AIDS was like fishing with dynamite. Good times.

  16. HiddenDarts says:

    Curious, LT or anyone else. Is the Player’s Tribute shutting down? This “going dark” thing seems ridiculous for one of the best hockey content sites on the web.

  17. Primetime says:

    HiddenDarts,

    I think LT means there is so much good content to read, you won’t be able to leave the site until its dark outside tonight….I could be wrong though

  18. HiddenDarts says:

    Primetime,

    Ah. Yes. Rereading it, I realized I injected my own meaning. Thanks!

  19. VanIsleOil says:

    Pouzar,

    My thoughts are with you Pouzar, hope it all turns out well for you and your family. Like you and Jethro,I am also going through some difficult times and I really do come here for hockey talk and therapy. LT’s place is and has been a great place for me.

  20. HugThePost says:

    for those of us lucky enough to have seen the 1980’s Oilers, it is very hard not to notice the similar vibe this year’s team has—-we have a team that can free-wheel and shoot the lights out with good portions of crazy, violent, flash, grind and an all-world goalie that keeps it all together.

    This is Katz’s vision and what I suspect he was chasing when he bought the team and put us through the decade of darkness with all of the nepotism and bad management and wasted drafts.

    I’m old now, but this year’s team makes me smile and I’m going to enjoy their playoffs, no matter how long it is—it’s unbelievable to get to see a reincarnation of the BOTB like Chia has built so far.

  21. treevojo says:

    Jethro Tull: I’m with you brother. Going through something very similar. Here and the Oilers are my therapy.

    Feel your guys pain.

    Been in the hospital for 4 days now with my son.

    Should have been out on Tuesday.

    Oil better bring it tonight.

  22. BONE207 says:

    That Letestu must be a chameleon. Nothing about his play changes more than his name. Maybe LT was in a hurry today?

  23. rickithebear says:

    // •Mark Letesu’s 15 goals are distributed in genuinely unique fashion. Not many seasons have been divided up in this way. //

    looking at similar numbered forwards.
    11PPG
    Seguin 5.75M
    N. Foligno 5.5M
    Moulson 5M
    Couture 6M
    Malkin 9.5M
    Benn 9.5M

    10 PPG
    Atkinson 3.5M
    Lucic 6M
    Letestu 1.8M
    Draisatl (ELC)

    9PPG
    Tarasenko 7.5M
    Panarin 6M
    Hornquist 4.25M
    Drouin (ELC)
    Nylander (ELC)
    Laine (ELC)
    Reinhart (ELC)
    Marchand 6.125M

    Letestu is a cap steal

    Never a fan of
    #1-7 D
    #1 -14 FWD

    Fill the units:
    Forwards
    1. -PvP Fwd line; RNH …..
    Hope to break even with best scorers in the game.

    2. -2nd-3rd comp Fwd line; Players like Kane ; Tavares;
    They better kick the Sh….. out of there opposition in Goal Diff

    3. -2nd-4th comp
    Strong Even goal production line; need +ve Goal dif.

    4. – Specialist line
    Tough FO ZS; Good to Elite PK Fwds; PP if effective.
    for Nuge with a team worst -12. Connor may get that nod as well, if not Leon.

    Etc…….

  24. Rocknrolla says:

    Pouzar:
    One minute you are watching hockey, baseball, basketball the next minute yer at the Hospital with your 7 yr talking to neurologists about why he is fainting all of a sudden. Take this shit for granted and the big guy throws the 12 to 6 curve ball.

    Thoughts and Prayers…

  25. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    One minute you are watching hockey, baseball, basketball the next minute yer at the Hospital with your 7 yr talking to neurologists about why he is fainting all of a sudden. Take this shit for granted and the big guy throws the 12 to 6 curve ball.

    Man hope everything is OK there Pouzar. Raising Kids is a constant worry and it won’t get easier as they get older. My kids are grown but it you will still worry. Health my friend is everything.

  26. Jaxon says:

    — “Five years previous the bully NHL had steamrolled my team and the WHA babies in the expansion draft. The NHL fathers had been dismissive every. damned. day. of the Oilers existence.”

    I’m sure the original six had most of the NHL boardroom power at the time and they were happy to expand the league again, but not too eager to face the next Flyers, Sabres or Islanders who both took little time to develop into contenders.

    STL and PHI entered the NHL in 67-68 and by 73-74 the Flyers already won a cup. They won in their 7th season and again in their 9th season in 74-75, which would also be the first time an original six team didn’t make the finals. BUF, who entered the league in 70-71 was the other finalist in their 5th season.
    The Islanders entered the league in 72-73 and already won a cup by 79-80, in their 8th season. BUF, PHI, & LAK all topped 100 pts in 74-75. The were a powerhouse by 75-76, topping 100 pts for the 1st time in just their 4th season.

    I’m sure the original six were scared of becoming a middle of the pack team and missing out on playoff revenues. The eighties ended up being absolutely dominated by the Islanders and the Oilers.

    — “It might have been the most emotional experience I’ve ever had as a fan.”

    It was for me too. But not as an Oiler fan, but as a 12 year old Islander fan from Saskatchewan. Bourne, Gillies, Henning, Resch, and Trottier all hailed from Saskatchewan, while the Sutters were from Alberta, and Goring was form Manitoba. The Isles felt like the home team to me. I cried. The Oilers, who had no players from Saskatchewan in 79-80, and in 1984 they only had fringe players from Saskatchewan, who couldn’t make the deep Oilers team in a meaningful way. Gord Sherven (44 games over 3 seasons) was my best friend’s cousin. Todd Strueby (5 games over 3 seasons) was from nearby Lanigan, and Mark Habschied (74 games over 4 seasons) was a WHL legend, but none of them played a single playoff game with Edmonton. So I was like “screw those guys”.

  27. Durag says:

    Eberle with the career low SH%, and also to my eye he’s been missing the net a hell of a lot from in close. Wonder what’s up with that. A guy’s accuracy shouldn’t be something that declines with age.

  28. Shane says:

    Pouzar,

    My thoughts are with you Pouzar. Hopefully everything gets figured out soon.

  29. Shane says:

    Durag:
    Eberle with the career low SH%, and also to my eye he’s been missing the net a hell of a lot from in close. Wonder what’s up with that. A guy’s accuracy shouldn’t be something that declines with age.

    He changed his stick this year. It’s a few inches longer. Maybe that has something to do with it?

  30. Chachi says:

    Durag:
    Eberle with the career low SH%, and also to my eye he’s been missing the net a hell of a lot from in close. Wonder what’s up with that. A guy’s accuracy shouldn’t be something that declines with age.

    Well, in some cases accuracy does go with age and your choices are to continue to stand up and take the consequences or sit down and make aim less of a problem, but feel less like a man. It is an age old struggle.

  31. NF Oiler says:

    Zaitsev about to sign for 4.5 mil per year?? Wow if that’s the going rate for a dman who has played one NHL season, has four goals and is -21 then something’s wrong ..goes to show the steals the oil have with klef and larsson at 4.1 mil…even Sekeras 5.5 mil looks like quite the Bargin as well compAred to what the leafs are gonna pay zaitsev!

  32. Edmonton_fan says:

    meanashell11:
    1984, I watched the series winner at RATT. Place was crazy. Good times!

    We have met before – I must have paid for many chairs in RATT in the early 1980’s.

    When the Oilers won the Cup we were in RATT, I thought I was just going home afterward. My friends suggested to go downtown – ever expected the mayhem; cars were trapped on Jasper Avenue as the pedestrians spilled onto the street. Next thing I remember – Jasper Avenue was wall to wall people – marching on the hoods & roofs of vehicles that could not escape…

  33. --hudson-- says:

    Speaking of Fred Shero, this list was floating around the internet a few months ago. Pretty neat to see his rules from the 70s that still apply today
    https://mobile.twitter.com/IceWarehouse/status/813510007215951873/photo/1

    I take it he wasn’t a fan of the one timer on the pp

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    z-CHI 28
    x-MIN 22
    x-ANA 21
    x-EDM 18
    x-SJS 17
    x-STL 14
    x-NSH 12-1st wildcard
    x-CGY 12-2nd wildcard
    ————-
    LAK 4
    WPG 3
    DAL -3
    VAN -10
    ARI -12
    COL -32

    If EDM beat SJS in reg, its one more point to secure 2nd. First can happen but ANA needs to lose their last 2 and EDM needs 2 wins. Could happen, but not probable.

    WC games tonight:

    EDM at SJS – If EDM plays all 3 periods like the first vs LAK, they will win. Nurse needs to stop wandering in the Dzone. On for all 5 5v5 goals vs LAK. I expect him to play well tonight with Gryba.

    Thorton and Couture said they’ll be ready for the playoffs, that certainly doesn’t mean they’ll be 100%

    Neither will play tonight so EDM needs to announce their presence with authority and throw some high heat.

    GOILERS!!

    WPG at CBJ – CBJ trying for 2nd in the Metro but running out of games. WPG going on their annual “the games mean fuck all so we’ll win most of them” streak and have won 5 in a row.

    STL at FLA – STl continues to play teams out of the playoffs. Trying to stay ahead of NSH for 3rd in Central. Reimer expected to start for FLA so it won’t be easy for STL

    NSH at DAL – NSH tring to get out of a wildcard spot. They’ve been worse than I expected lately. Both teams are 5-4-1 in the last 10. If Niemi starts take NSH.

    MIN at COL – Doobie needs to find something to build on and right quickly

    VAN at ARI – Maybe the least watched game in the NHL this year, live and on TV.

    CHI at ANA – Possible WC final preview. If Fowler, Lindholm and Vatanen can’t go CHI should light them up.

    CGY at LAK – Now that LAK is out of the playoffs they might look to extract some of Tkacooke’s hide.

  35. speeds says:

    NF Oiler:
    Zaitsev about to sign for 4.5 mil per year?? Wow if that’s the going rate for a dman who has played one NHL season, has four goals and is -21 then something’s wrong ..goes to show the steals the oil have with klef and larsson at 4.1 mil…even Sekeras 5.5 mil looks like quite the Bargin as well compAred to what the leafs are gonna pay zaitsev!

    One difference is Zaitsev, on a 7 year deal, would be signing away 2 RFA years and 5 UFA years, while Klefbom was signing away 5 RFA years and 2 UFA years.

  36. speeds says:

    Pouzar,

    Sorry to hear about your son, hoping for all the best!

  37. Factotum says:

    LT, those first three paragraphs in today’s post are worthy of framing.

    I couldn’t have said it better if I tried, and I have.

    I was 22 years old in 1984; those memories are as indelible and treasured as any that I hold dear in my mind.

    Here we go, Oilers. Here we go.

  38. --hudson-- says:

    Edmonton_fan: We have met before – I must have paid for many chairs in RATT in the early 1980’s.

    When the Oilers won the Cup we were in RATT, I thought I was just going home afterward. My friends suggested to go downtown – ever expected the mayhem; cars were trapped on Jasper Avenue as the pedestrians spilled onto the street. Next thing I remember – Jasper Avenue was wall to wall people – marching on the hoods & roofs of vehicles that could not escape…

    After the game my dad drove me down to Jasper ave so we could go for pizza. (I can’t remember the restaurant anymore but it was near the Highlands)

    I do remember cars were not moving and outside a gas station was a young woman flapping an Oilers flag. For each car passing she would lean in and make out with the passengers. After seeing this my dad took me home lol

  39. Durag says:

    Chachi: Well, in some cases accuracy does go with age and your choices are to continue to stand up and take the consequences or sit down and make aim less of a problem, but feel less like a man. It is an age old struggle.

    I think there are pills for that…

  40. Chachi says:

    Durag: I think there are pills for that…

    I think that’s for flow not for aim.

  41. Chico21 says:

    I spend an hour everyday reading Oilers blog’s and I did not know that Ziyat Paigin was with the Condors. That is very good news. Ryan Mantha and him on defense will block out the sun.

  42. rickithebear says:

    Chachi:

    Chachi says:

    April 6, 2017 at 9:23 am

    “The slotting done by WoodMoney really does offer us a chance to see who the coach believes can do the job. Among the top 4D, Adam Larsson has the best DFF percentage and DFF rel comp, which matches my eye.”
    Adam Larsson, passenger

    DFF% WTF

    why are you using % rather than differential.
    And Base.

    % is bull shit!
    It gives a false indication!
    It allways has.

    Benning Hamhuis both have the same FA% 51.9
    Benning 41.46 FF60; 38.34 FA60; +3.12 FD60
    Hamhuis 44.47 FF60; 41.22 FA60; +3.25 FD60
    % lie to the reader.

    But assigning what stat belongs to whom.
    1. The very structure of a Unit is Dmen behind Forwards.
    So forwards are closer to High danger area by structure.

    2. Off Dmen abandon the free path to his own HD area.
    5 times more scoring From HD area.

    3. When a team has procession Failed entry; Corsi; blocks; misses; Giveaways
    is almost completely Forwards and Offensive Dmen

    4. Forwards and off dmen who press low. almost allways fail to establish NZ trap; with procession loss; not allowing Dmen to press entry of ther OZ cause that would positionally abandon the Defence of HD area.

    5. Corsi against is almost 100% Forwards and offensive Dmen.

    So you want Dmen who
    6. Prevent Pentration of HD area. Corsi x,y
    keeping shots to as great a distance as possible.

    It is at this point you are tracking 2 values.
    A. Corsi to Shot reduction
    B. Reduction in Shot density a cummulitive measure of score potential

    7.You want Dmen to be Elite
    shot suppression (volume)
    GA60 = (CA60 – (BF60 + MA60 + SVF60))
    GA60/CA60
    This does not capture the true binary affect of Data

    8. Elite HD (targeting)
    Capture the targeting reduction of Dmen
    GAx,y = (CAx,y – (BFx,y + MAx,y + SVFx,y)
    giving you a cumulative reduction 0% chance of goals.

    However the true formula with binary affect:
    open hole shots – OHSA
    Closed hole shots – CHSA
    buy only selecting the Open hole data.
    0% corsi is removed.
    you end up with a different Shot success chart than Alan ryders original 2006 Shot quality chart.
    which he should have never recused.

    This shot chart looks at
    shot
    1. type of shot
    2. x,y location.
    3. open holes in elevation

    Save
    4. Type of save
    5. distance traveled
    6. reaction time to save position

    9. true Shot supression
    OHSA60 = (CA60 – (BF60 + MA60 + CHSA60))
    you get a true volume measure of a dman’s affect
    OHSA60/CA60 = % reduction

    10. true targeting Supression
    OHSH60x,y = (CAx,y – (BFx,y + MAx,y + CHSA60x,y)
    you get the cummulative value
    OHSA60x,y/OHCA60x,y = Targeting Reduction.

    Goalie performance:
    11. Positional Shot suppression performance
    CHSA performance = (CHSA60x,y/SA60x,y)- (Exp CHSA/60x,y)

    12. True save%
    True Save% = GA60x,y/OHSA60x,y

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar:
    One minute you are watching hockey, baseball, basketball the next minute yer at the Hospital with your 7 yr talking to neurologists about why he is fainting all of a sudden. Take this shit for granted and the big guy throws the 12 to 6 curve ball.

    Damn that’s awful.

    Very sorry to hear that.

    Be strong for your boy Pouzar.

  44. rickithebear says:

    I was at a event that maxim magazine had named one of the top 5 parties to attend.
    Rugbyfest.

    I was in my early 20’s and sitting on the toilet cause I was so drunk.

    Guy laughed at me sitting on the toilet.

    So I stopped mid pee.
    Do you guys know how tough that was!

    Pissed on the guys shoes, he dove back.
    target achieved.
    He was starting to throw a punch when I ducked and screamed.

    “Lets go get a beer.”

  45. Chachi says:

    rickithebear: DFF% WTF

    why are you using % rather than differential.
    And Base.

    % is bull shit!
    It gives a false indication!
    It allways has.

    Benning Hamhuis both have the same FA% 51.9
    Benning 41.46 FF60; 38.34 FA60; +3.12 FD60
    Hamhuis 44.47 FF60; 41.22 FA60; +3.25 FD60
    % lie to the reader.

    But assigning what stat belongs to whom.
    1. The very structure of a Unit is Dmen behind Forwards.
    So forwards are closer to High danger area by structure.

    2. Off Dmen abandon the free path to his own HD area.
    5 times more scoring From HD area.

    3. When a team has procession Failed entry; Corsi; blocks; misses; Giveaways
    is almost completely Forwards and Offensive Dmen

    4. Forwards and off dmen who press low. almost allways fail to establish NZ trap; with procession loss; not allowing Dmen to press entry of ther OZ cause that would positionally abandon the Defence of HD area.

    5. Corsi against is almost 100% Forwards and offensive Dmen.

    So you want Dmen who
    6. Prevent Pentration of HD area. Corsi x,y
    keeping shots to as great a distance as possible.

    It is at this point you are tracking 2 values.
    A. Corsi to Shot reduction
    B. Reduction in Shot density a cummulitive measure of score potential

    7.You want Dmen to be Elite
    shot suppression (volume)
    GA60 = (CA60 – (BF60 + MA60 + SVF60))
    GA60/CA60
    This does not capture the true binary affect ofData

    8. Elite HD (targeting)
    Capture the targeting reduction of Dmen
    GAx,y = (CAx,y – (BFx,y + MAx,y + SVFx,y)
    giving you a cumulativereduction 0% chance of goals.

    However the true formula with binary affect:
    open hole shots – OHSA
    Closed hole shots – CHSA
    buy only selecting the Open hole data.
    0% corsi is removed.
    you end up with a different Shot success chart than Alan ryders original 2006 Shot quality chart.
    which he should have never recused.

    This shot chart looks at
    shot
    1. type of shot
    2. x,y location.
    3. open holes in elevation

    Save
    4. Type of save
    5. distance traveled
    6. reaction time to save position

    9. true Shot supression
    OHSA60 = (CA60 – (BF60 + MA60 + CHSA60))
    you get a true volume measure of a dman’s affect
    OHSA60/CA60 = % reduction

    10. true targeting Supression
    OHSH60x,y = (CAx,y – (BFx,y + MAx,y + CHSA60x,y)
    you get the cummulative value
    OHSA60x,y/OHCA60x,y = Targeting Reduction.

    Goalie performance:
    11. Positional Shot suppression performance
    CHSA performance = (CHSA60x,y/SA60x,y)- (Exp CHSA/60x,y)

    12. True save%
    True Save% = GA60x,y/OHSA60x,y

    These are quotation marks: ” ”

    When you put words in the middle of them it means you are “quoting” what they said, or in this case wrote.

    My point was to use Mr. Tide’s reference to the numbers to mock the notion that Adam Larsson is a passenger on this Oilers team.

    Unfortunately I lost my Flash Gordon decoder ring so the rest of your post is gibberish to me therefore I will just agree with you:

    % is bull shit! xoxo

  46. Chachi says:

    rickithebear:
    I was at a event that maxim magazine had named one of the top 5 parties to attend.
    Rugbyfest.

    I was in my early 20’s and sitting on the toilet cause I was so drunk.

    Guy laughed at me sitting on the toilet.

    So I stopped mid pee.
    Do you guys know how tough that was!

    Pissed on the guys shoes, he dove back.
    target achieved.
    He was starting to throw a punch when I ducked and screamed.

    “Lets go get a beer.”

    This I understood! Very funny, but you should never stop mid pee; that is not natural, even for a bear.

  47. bendelson says:

    –hudson–: After the game my dad drove me down to Jasper ave so we could go for pizza. (I can’t remember the restaurant anymore but it was near the Highlands)

    I do remember cars were not moving and outside a gas station was a young woman flapping an Oilers flag. For each car passing she would lean in and make out with the passengers. After seeing this my dad took me home lol

    Yeah, I heard about that…
    A great night for most!
    Unfortunately, completely heartbroken, I had no choice but to break up with her the next day…

  48. bendelson says:

    Best wishes, Pouzar.

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’m surprised we haven’t see it yet, but I expect we’ll soon see some articles condemning the analytics centric approach following FLA’s ouster of Gallant and their subsequent missing the playoffs.

    To me that reportage is disappointing, because it’s never been an either/or argument. Data analytics and human observation should readily co-exist, cos you know….science.

    By all accounts, Gallant was a very effective motivator. That’s not a skill likely to be improved by number crunching and if we’re throwing bricks at the Panthers, underestimating the importance of that in their HC’s skillset is a fair criticism imho. To say nothing of what that establishes within your culture, when you so readily fire a successful coach so early into a season.

  50. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’m surprised we haven’t see it yet, but I expect we’ll soon see some articles condemning the analytics centric approach following FLA’s ouster of Gallant and their subsequent missing the playoffs.

    To me that reportage is disappointing, because it’s never been an either/or argument. Data analytics and human observation should readily co-exist, cos you know….science.

    By all accounts, Gallant was a very effective motivator. That’s not a skill likely to be improved by number crunching and if we’re throwing bricks at the Panthers, underestimating the importance of that in a coaches skillset is a fair criticism imho. To say nothing of what that establishes within your culture, when you so readily fire a successful coach so early into a season.

    Any article that tries to explain the plight of the Panthers that doesn’t just say “Injuries!” is probably trying too hard.

  51. treevojo says:

    –hudson–: After the game my dad drove me down to Jasper ave so we could go for pizza. (I can’t remember the restaurant anymore but it was near the Highlands)

    I do remember cars were not moving and outside a gas station was a young woman flapping an Oilers flag. For each car passing she would lean in and make out with the passengers. After seeing this my dad took me home lol

    Great story as long as your dad didn’t head back out for pizza and gas leaving poor bendelson heart broken and single.

  52. Bag of Pucks says:

    Best downtown Oilers celebration for me was in 85 after the second Cup. It seemed like young Edmontonians needed that first year of Stanley Cup celebrations to grasp what was truly possible in a near riot situation.

    The number of topless young ladies that second celebration seemed to have escalated significantly. I can’t quantify the numbers exactly, but needless to say, I saw them good.

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    Chachi: Any article that tries to explain the plight of the Panthers that doesn’t just say “Injuries!” is probably trying too hard.

    Just checked https://www.mangameslost.com/ and they seem middle of the pack for injuries, no?

  54. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: Just checked https://www.mangameslost.com/ and they seem middle of the pack for injuries, no?

    I think it is more about the quality of players injured for them. Barkov, Huberdeau, Ekblad and Bjugstad all missed notable amounts of time.
    Edit to add: Jason Demers seems to have played every game so I assume their defence was more than fine all year.

  55. Melvis says:

    I’m trying out this little healing prayer today Pouzar. Best wishes to you and the little dude.

  56. russ99 says:

    rickithebear: DFF% WTF

    why are you using % rather than differential.
    And Base.

    % is bull shit!
    It gives a false indication!
    It allways has.

    Benning Hamhuis both have the same FA% 51.9
    Benning 41.46 FF60; 38.34 FA60; +3.12 FD60
    Hamhuis 44.47 FF60; 41.22 FA60; +3.25 FD60
    % lie to the reader.

    But assigning what stat belongs to whom.
    1. The very structure of a Unit is Dmen behind Forwards.
    So forwards are closer to High danger area by structure.

    2. Off Dmen abandon the free path to his own HD area.
    5 times more scoring From HD area.

    3. When a team has procession Failed entry; Corsi; blocks; misses; Giveaways
    is almost completely Forwards and Offensive Dmen

    4. Forwards and off dmen who press low. almost allways fail to establish NZ trap; with procession loss; not allowing Dmen to press entry of ther OZ cause that would positionally abandon the Defence of HD area.

    5. Corsi against is almost 100% Forwards and offensive Dmen.

    So you want Dmen who
    6. Prevent Pentration of HD area. Corsi x,y
    keeping shots to as great a distance as possible.

    It is at this point you are tracking 2 values.
    A. Corsi to Shot reduction
    B. Reduction in Shot density a cummulitive measure of score potential

    7.You want Dmen to be Elite
    shot suppression (volume)
    GA60 = (CA60 – (BF60 + MA60 + SVF60))
    GA60/CA60
    This does not capture the true binary affect ofData

    8. Elite HD (targeting)
    Capture the targeting reduction of Dmen
    GAx,y = (CAx,y – (BFx,y + MAx,y + SVFx,y)
    giving you a cumulativereduction 0% chance of goals.

    However the true formula with binary affect:
    open hole shots – OHSA
    Closed hole shots – CHSA
    buy only selecting the Open hole data.
    0% corsi is removed.
    you end up with a different Shot success chart than Alan ryders original 2006 Shot quality chart.
    which he should have never recused.

    This shot chart looks at
    shot
    1. type of shot
    2. x,y location.
    3. open holes in elevation

    Save
    4. Type of save
    5. distance traveled
    6. reaction time to save position

    9. true Shot supression
    OHSA60 = (CA60 – (BF60 + MA60 + CHSA60))
    you get a true volume measure of a dman’s affect
    OHSA60/CA60 = % reduction

    10. true targeting Supression
    OHSH60x,y = (CAx,y – (BFx,y + MAx,y + CHSA60x,y)
    you get the cummulative value
    OHSA60x,y/OHCA60x,y = Targeting Reduction.

    Goalie performance:
    11. Positional Shot suppression performance
    CHSA performance = (CHSA60x,y/SA60x,y)- (Exp CHSA/60x,y)

    12. True save%
    True Save% = GA60x,y/OHSA60x,y

    Props for that. Defensive metrics are in their infancy.

    Puck and player trackers will open a whole new world of understanding and render shot-based metrics redundant.

  57. J-Bo says:

    I know that this RW depth chart wouldn’t be ideal, but your Kassian “feature role” comment got me thinking LT. If our RW depth chart was Draisaital, Kassian, Puljujarvi, Pitlick and our Centre depth chart was McDavid, Nuge, Hanzal, Letestu, and our RHD depth chart was Larsson, Manson/Faulk/Etc… Benning, are we happy with how the salary cap has been spent? Would you prefer a lesser 3C, lesser #2 RHD, and still have Eberle?

  58. Melvis says:

    I was dating a woman in ’84 who inexplicably doffed her drawers and mooned some Flames flags that year.

    “A fat hairy ass is a putdown. That’s not a putdown, it’s encouragement. Now we’re being followed.”

    “Oh.”

  59. Bag of Pucks says:

    Chachi: I think it is more about the quality of players injured for them. Barkov, Huberdeau, Ekblad and Bjugstad all missed notable amounts of time.
    Edit to add: Jason Demers seems to have played every game so I assume their defence was more than fine all year.

    I’m trying to imagine Gallant’s reaction to that. It’s probably something like, “karma’s a bitch.”

  60. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’m trying to imagine Gallant’s reaction to that. It’s probably something like, “karma’s a bitch.”

    I think he was a victim of it too, but I am sure he is not heart broken that they have missed the playoffs.

  61. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’m on Oiler’s Now at 1:30pm today if you want to here me blather on about stuff I blather on about here.

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    Puck and player trackers will open a whole new world of understanding and render shot-based metrics redundant.

    I can’t wait for that day.

    I doubt its soon though.

    If the NHL does league wide player and puck tracking I doubt they make the data public.

    NBA does tracking, but doesn’t make the data easy to get.

  63. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi,

    Jason Demers seems to have played every game so I assume their defence was more than fine all year.

    OH NO U DID’INT!

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    I was dating a woman in ’84 who inexplicably doffed her drawers and mooned some Flames flags that year.

    “A fat hairy ass is a putdown. That’s not a putdown, it’s encouragement. Now we’re being followed.”

    “Oh.”

    Awesome.

  65. jm363561 says:

    blainer:
    Love to remember those good days LT.

    I find it entertaining though how most of us here come down hard on the team after a loss. We go back to 8-2 for the last ten and the sky is falling.
    ====
    Yes, I notice this as well. Look at results around the league and there are invariably some that look downright weird – Colorado beat Chicago a couple of days ago for example – but puck luck is a thing, as is a hot goalie. Yet when the Oilers lose the sky is falling in (although I would say things have eased up as the season has progressed). I guess that is what years of suck does to our psyche.

    It seems ridiculous to say this but in the 9 – 1 run I never felt we were anywhere near that good. But bend-don’t-break D, hot goal tending, and McD magic, seem to be a winning formula, for now at least. I can’t wait for the playoffs and may well fly back from the Philippines just to be there. It would not surprise me if we lost in the first round. On the other hand I believe CamBo could take us to the finals.

    Go Oil.

  66. slopitch says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    At some point the video feeds are gonna be good enough that it should be something that can be automated.

  67. Edmonton_fan says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Best downtown Oilers celebration for me was in 85 after the second Cup. It seemed like young Edmontonians needed that first year of Stanley Cup celebrations to grasp what was truly possible in a near riot situation.

    I loved the 2nd Stanley Cup – the City of Edmonton supposedly learned from the 1st Cup. They sent firetrucks down Jasper Avenue at 1:00 a.m. & turned the hoses on to clear out the party animals – took out the windows of businesses.

    The stories in the newspapers claimed that downtown destruction was caused by the drunks. But it was actually the firefighters!

  68. Jethro Tull says:

    Edmonton_fan: I loved the 2nd Stanley Cup – the City of Edmonton supposedly learned from the 1st Cup. They sent firetrucks down Jasper Avenue at 1:00 a.m. & turned the hoses on to clear out the party animals – took out the windows of businesses.

    The stories in the newspapers claimed that downtown destruction was caused by the drunks. But it was actually the firefighters!

    Come and see the violence inherent in the system! Help, help, I’m being repressed!

  69. Jethro Tull says:

    Gonna throw a curve here and say SJ is the one team i don’t want to play. They get Thornton and Rat-Weasel back and regress to the meat and we’re in trouble.

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    Edmonton_fan: I loved the 2nd Stanley Cup – the City of Edmonton supposedly learned from the 1st Cup. They sent firetrucks down Jasper Avenue at 1:00 a.m. & turned the hoses on to clear out the party animals – took out the windows of businesses.

    The stories in the newspapers claimed that downtown destruction was caused by the drunks. But it was actually the firefighters!

    Biggest wet t-shirt night ever.

    https://youtu.be/_Qd77uYU64g

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    WG, where did you read the Ducks need to lose 2 AND the Oil need to win 2 (at least) to take the division?

    The last I heard, the Oil win on the tiebreak, so theoretically, if the Oil win the last 3 and ANA only wins 1 of their last 2, we should take the division when tied at 103 apiece?

  72. HALFWALL says:

    I’ve been lurking and enjoying the site for the past 2 years. First time posting.

    I moved to Edmonton as a child and got hooked on the Oilers since the 1983 NYI SCF sweep. 1984-88 were the heights of glory. I moved to the US right after the Gretzky trade but have stayed a fan ever since. It was challenging – especially during the decade of shame. My interest waned but has never fully snuffed out.

    The golden ticket changed everything and I started paying much closer attention again. I subscribed to Center Ice. I really enjoy the mix of detailed analysis, raw/senseless emotion, generosity and occasional assholery on this fine site. I’ve learned and laughed a lot. Thanks to our kind host for incubating and cultivating this unique community.

    I live and work in the Silicon Valley today. I’m going to the Shark Tank tonight with my wife. She’s not much of a hockey fan but has passionately followed Tennis since she was a little girl. Steffi Graf was/is her idol. I tell her that McDavid is hockey’s Steffi Graf right. Graceful, electrifying and a stone cold killer all at the same time.

    We’ll see what she thinks 🙂

  73. dangilitis says:

    Just curious if anyone has broken down how Smyth made a living? What % of his production was PP? What were his 5×4/60 like?

    Lucic must have 5×5 numbers that are far worse, but 5×4 I haven’t seen anyone with an Oilers logo park themselves in front of the net like this since Smytty. Are their numbers comparable. Was Lucic assuming this role on the PP in Boston, or is it really the McDavid effect that is driving his 5×4 this year?

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    dangilitis:
    Just curious if anyone has broken down how Smyth made a living?

    If I had to go out on a limb, I’d guess he’d earned 99% of his income as a hockey player? ; )

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    slopitch:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    At some point the video feeds are gonna be good enough that it should be something that can be automated.

    Agreed.

    High speed cameras via SportsVu is probably what will happen.

    I doubt the NHL makes the data public though.

    Hope so.

  76. bendelson says:

    HALFWALL,

    Welcome to the group Halfwall.
    Enjoy the game tonight!
    I’ve heard the Shark Tank is a fun place to watch a game.
    Represent!

  77. Pouzar says:

    Thanks for all the very kind words everyone.

    Just got back from the hospital.

    The head neurologist has diagnosed my son with a type of focal epilepsy.
    It’s been a long 20 hrs and I don’t even know what this means but he has an
    EEG scheduled for August 1st to hopefully shed some light on the situation.

    Family nap time. 🙂

    Thank you again everyone!

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    WG, where did you read the Ducks need to lose 2 AND the Oil need to win 2 (at least) to take the division?

    The last I heard, the Oil win on the tiebreak, so theoretically, if the Oil win the last 3 and ANA only wins 1 of their last 2, we should take the division when tied at 103 apiece?

    EDM is 2-2-0 vs ANA and ANA is 2-1-1 vs EDM so doesn’t ANA win the tie-break?

  79. kinger_OIL says:

    Pouzar,

    – Great post LT!

    – Pouzar: you one of my favorites in here: we both have 7 year olds as well. Thoughts and prayers are with you.

  80. Lowetide says:

    “We’d like to improve our play heading into the playoffs & I didn’t think we took that step the other night in Los Angeles.”

    I think there were about five players having bad nights, but there were some good showings in that game, too. Good arrows for some.

  81. classict says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM is 2-2-0 vs ANA and ANA is 2-1-1 vs EDM so doesn’t ANA win the tie-break?

    Well first tiebreak is ROW so if the Oilers win 3 and Ducks win one (all non shootout) then Oilers have the tiebreak.

    If they tie ROW though then yea I think you’re right. Ducks have more points in games between them so they get the tiebreak.

    Edit: Actually aren’t the Oilers 3-1-0 in the games that count? So then Oilers have the tiebreak…

  82. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Good on ya Bob…
    In first sentence alludes to WG as “condescending”

    Nailed it imo

  83. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Thanks for all the very kind words everyone.

    Just got back from the hospital.

    The head neurologist has diagnosed my son with a type of focal epilepsy.
    It’s been a long 20 hrs and I don’t even know what this means but he has an
    EEG scheduled for August 1st to hopefully shed some light on the situation.

    Family nap time.🙂

    Thank you again everyone!

    Best wishes from everyone, Pouzar. I don’t know a thing about that condition but have had experience in worrying about kids and can say they are strong and can adapt. More importantly, every child deserves good parents for days just like this one. I’m glad your little man has you.

  84. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM is 2-2-0 vs ANA and ANA is 2-1-1 vs EDM so doesn’t ANA win the tie-break?

    How come we were in “first” when we were tied at the top of the division the other day? Or was that because of points %

  85. Lowetide says:

    GMB3: How come we were in “first” when we were tied at the top of the division the other day? Or was that because of points %

    Yes. We had a game in hand (half a game in the standings).

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kaptain Vikarious:
    Good on ya Bob…
    In first sentence alludes to WG as “condescending”

    Nailed it imo

    He said I wasn’t condescending you jackass.

  87. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He said I wasn’t condescending you jackass.

    Well, I think we all know what he meant. 🙂

  88. StixMalone says:

    Haven’t read the line up for tonite game but hearing Pakarinan is in and Nurse and Benning playing again. Gryba out?

  89. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    My apologies, if so.
    I think his intended meaning was much like how one interprets stats.

  90. admiralmark says:

    Hey WG I’m a big Sports poolie. I have been following some of your ideas on predicting NHL Team playoff success. I don’t know if you already planned on doing this and I don’t wanna over step here. But once Playoff matchups are set i’m wondering if you or any other of the sharp analytics guys here would be interested in crunching the #’s using your theories to predict the playoffs? Perhaps you could even have an in house competition with each other to test theories.

    Of course this is a self serving request so I was thinking we could make it a Donation to Lowetide event. We could say that anyone planning on utilizing these predictions should make a Donation to Lowetides website? Anyways just a suggestion. Thoughts?

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    classict: Well first tiebreak is ROW so if the Oilers win 3 and Ducks win one (all non shootout) then Oilers have the tiebreak.

    If they tie ROW though then yea I think you’re right. Ducks have more points in games between them so they get the tiebreak.

    Edit: Actually aren’t the Oilers 3-1-0 in the games that count? So then Oilers have the tiebreak…

    EDM vs ANA this year.

    Nov 15 ANA 4-1
    Jan 25 EDM 4-0
    Mar 23 ANA 4-3
    Apr 1 EDM 3-2 (OT)

    EDM record 2-2-0
    ANA record 2-1-1

    I think that gives ANA the tie break.

    I mentioned 2 wins so EDM would have the ROW advantage if they were ties.

    Right now ANA has 41 ROW and EDM has 40.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kaptain Vikarious:
    My apologies, if so.
    I think his intended meaning was much like how one interprets stats.

    I’ll retract the jackass. 🙂

    Bob said I was “one of the few stats guys who explains it well and isn’t condescending”

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Well, I think we all know what he meant.

    DON’T YOU START WITH ME!

  94. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Agreed. You explain yourself very well and I do enjoy reading your analysis.

  95. Bobo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM vs ANA this year.

    Nov 15 ANA 4-1
    Jan 25 EDM 4-0
    Mar 23 ANA 4-3
    Apr 1 EDM 3-2 (OT)

    EDM record 2-2-0
    ANA record 2-1-1

    I think that gives ANA the tie break.

    I mentioned 2 wins so EDM would have the ROW advantage if they were ties.

    Right now ANA has 41 ROW and EDM has 40.

    You’re missing Dec 3 EDM 3-2(OT)

  96. classict says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM vs ANA this year.

    Nov 15 ANA 4-1
    Jan 25 EDM 4-0
    Mar 23 ANA 4-3
    Apr 1 EDM 3-2 (OT)

    EDM record 2-2-0
    ANA record 2-1-1

    I think that gives ANA the tie break.

    I mentioned 2 wins so EDM would have the ROW advantage if they were ties.

    Right now ANA has 41 ROW and EDM has 40.

    As BOBO mentioned that misses Dec 3. And since they’ve played an uneven number of home games (Anaheim has 1 more home game) that Nov 15 game doesn’t count (tiebreaker removes the first home game of the team with more home games). So for the sake of the tiebreaker the record is:

    Jan 25 EDM 4-0
    Dec 3 EDM 3-2(OT)
    Mar 23 ANA 4-3
    Apr 1 EDM 3-2 (OT)

  97. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I’m on Oiler’s Now at 1:30pm today if you want to here me blather on about stuff I blather on about here.

    Good blathering.

  98. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Chachi,

    Jason Demers seems to have played every game so I assume their defence was more than fine all year.

    OH NO U DID’INT!

    That was just for you good sir.

  99. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March!!

    Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    Kicking things off:

    I’ll predict Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.

    10-9

  100. Georges says:

    Pouzar,

    How Doctors Think by Jerome Groopman.

    Good book for patients and (especially) their families.

    Wishing your family well, Pouzar.

  101. Georges says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March!!

    Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    Kicking things off:

    I’ll predict Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.

    10-9

    16 and because nothing is easy 12.

  102. spoiler says:

    Pouzar:
    Thanks for all the very kind words everyone.

    Just got back from the hospital.

    The head neurologist has diagnosed my son with a type of focal epilepsy.
    It’s been a long 20 hrs and I don’t even know what this means but he has an
    EEG scheduled for August 1st to hopefully shed some light on the situation.

    Family nap time.

    Thank you again everyone!

    Hang in there, bro.

    Thankfully there’s nothing better than The Masters and Curling for couch-napping.

    Hmmm…

  103. McSorley33 says:

    ’ve been lurking and enjoying the site for the past 2 years. First time posting.
    I moved to Edmonton as a child and got hooked on the Oilers since the 1983 NYI SCF sweep. 1984-88 were the heights of glory. I moved to the US right after the Gretzky trade but have stayed a fan ever since. It was challenging – especially during the decade of shame. My interest waned but has never fully snuffed out.
    The golden ticket changed everything and I started paying much closer attention again. I subscribed to Center Ice. I really enjoy the mix of detailed analysis, raw/senseless emotion, generosity and occasional assholery on this fine site. I’ve learned and laughed a lot. Thanks to our kind host for incubating and cultivating this unique community.
    I live and work in the Silicon Valley today. I’m going to the Shark Tank tonight with my wife. She’s not much of a hockey fan but has passionately followed Tennis since she was a little girl. Steffi Graf was/is her idol. I tell her that McDavid is hockey’s Steffi Graf right. Graceful, electrifying and a stone cold killer all at the same time.
    We’ll see what she thinks 🙂
    *****************************************************
    Great job….let us know your first hand thoughts of the game.

  104. McSorley33 says:

    Shout out to Pouzar…

  105. Ribs says:

    HALFWALL: I tell her that McDavid is hockey’s Steffi Graf right. Graceful, electrifying and a stone cold killer all at the same time.

    New nickname for McGreatness? GO STEFFI GO!!!

    Somehow I don’t think it’s gonna catch on…

  106. spoiler says:

    hunter1909,

    I will take 6-6, please and thanks, Hunter.

    Actually cancel that… I’d better wait till the matchups are certain.

  107. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar.

    Just for you.

    Jets suck.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kaptain Vikarious:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Agreed.You explain yourself very well and I do enjoy reading your analysis.

    Thank you sir.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bobo: You’re missing Dec 3 EDM 3-2(OT)

    Awesome!

    Glad they have the tie-break.

    I blame my phone.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    classict: As BOBO mentioned that misses Dec 3. And since they’ve played an uneven number of home games (Anaheim has 1 more home game) that Nov 15 game doesn’t count (tiebreaker removes the first home game of the team with more home games).So for the sake of the tiebreaker the record is:

    Jan 25 EDM 4-0
    Dec 3 EDM 3-2(OT)
    Mar 23 ANA 4-3
    Apr 1 EDM 3-2 (OT)

    Didn’t know that tie-break either.

    Thanks!

  111. admiralmark says:

    hunter1909,

    Same WCF but going 10-8.

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March!!

    Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    Kicking things off:

    I’ll predict Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.

    10-9

    9-9

    They beat SJS 4-2

    They beat ANA 4-3

    They lose to MIN 4-1

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March!!

    Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    Kicking things off:

    I’ll predict Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.

    10-9

    Can I change my entry if the match ups change?

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Good blathering.

    Thank you.

    Chachi: That was just for you good sir.

    *shakes fist*

  115. treevojo says:

    hunter1909,

    16-9 dude!!!

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HALFWALL:
    I’ve been lurking and enjoying the site for the past 2 years.First time posting.

    I moved to Edmonton as a child and got hooked on the Oilers since the 1983 NYI SCF sweep.1984-88 were the heights of glory.I moved to the US right after the Gretzky trade but have stayed a fan ever since.It was challenging – especially during the decade of shame.My interest waned but has never fully snuffed out.

    The golden ticket changed everything and I started paying much closer attention again.I subscribed to Center Ice.I really enjoy the mix of detailed analysis, raw/senseless emotion, generosity and occasional assholery on this fine site.I’ve learned and laughed a lot. Thanks to our kind host for incubating and cultivating this unique community.

    I live and work in the Silicon Valley today. I’m going to the Shark Tank tonight with my wife.She’s not much of a hockey fan but has passionately followed Tennis since she was a little girl.Steffi Graf was/is her idol.I tell her that McDavid is hockey’s Steffi Graf right.Graceful, electrifying and a stone cold killer all at the same time.

    We’ll see what she thinks

    Awesome.

    I need you to do something for me.

    When the linesman takes forever to drop the puck and then kicks one of the centers out, stand up and yell:

    “DROP THE DAMN PUCK ZEBRA, YOU’RE NOT THE SHOW!!!”

  117. commonfan14 says:

    Seeing some calls online for McDavid to be a Lady Byng candidate as well.

    Seriously?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrmuW3ZY0OQ

  118. classict says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March!!

    Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    Kicking things off:

    I’ll predict Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.

    10-9

    I’ll take 11-8

  119. John Chambers says:

    hunter1909,

    7-5

    Second-round heartbreak

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    Pres-WSH 36
    x-PIT 30
    x-CBJ 27
    y-MTL 21
    x-NYR 20
    OTT 15
    TOR 14
    x-BOS 14
    ——————–
    TBY 9
    NYI 9
    CAR 5
    PHI 5
    BUF -2
    FLA -2
    DET -4
    NJD -9

    TBY and NYI need to win out and a lot of help.

    1 more point and OTT clinches. 2 more points and TOR clinches. Both have 3 games left

    EC games tonight:

    OTT at BOS – Karlsson banged up again. With Karlsson the Trappers have a slim chance vs BOS. Without him they have almost none.

    PIT at NJD – PIT’s starting Dcorps is:

    Cole-Schultz (was 3rd pair to start the year)
    Duomolin-Hainsey – while the 1st pair gets more TOI, this pair gets the heavies and lots of them
    Streit – Ruhwedel – *fires up hockeydb*

    PIT should win in a walk

    NYI at CAR – Dougie can’t lose or he’s out

    WPG at CBJ – WPG will win Because Jets Win When It Doesn’t Matter

    TBY at TOR – Marquee game for the playoff race. TOR wins and they’re in. Stamkos still not playing, no Johnson tonight either.

  121. judgedrude says:

    slopitch:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    At some point the video feeds are gonna be good enough that it should be something that can be automated.

    I may be dating myself, but I remember that they used to have a blue dot on the puck that would make it easier to see. That sounds like something the numbers guys would like as they watch the game. On hard shots, a beautiful red streak went across the screen so that you could track where the puck went!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grOttsHuuzE

  122. Craig Zonit says:

    7-6 for me Hunter, and I’m plenty happy with the 2nd round this year.

  123. Chachi says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March!!

    Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    Kicking things off:

    I’ll predict Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.

    10-9

    0-0

    Bobby Ewing walks out of the showers in the team dressing room at Rogers Place and we all realize we have all been part of a mass fever dream for the entire hockey season and the Oilers have actually missed the playoffs again.

  124. T0ML says:

    So uh …. im going to guess its BS?

    http://variety.com/2017/biz/news/greice-santo-daryl-katz-rj-cipriani-canadian-billionaire-1202021527/

    Apparently Katz said he would give this lady a role for sex …

    Go oilers !, is it the 80s again (Coming from a 90s baby)?

  125. TO10801 says:

    hunter1909,

    I’ll take 2-4. Unfortunately I think the sharks wake up when the playoffs start

  126. Bag of Pucks says:

    classict: As BOBO mentioned that misses Dec 3. And since they’ve played an uneven number of home games (Anaheim has 1 more home game) that Nov 15 game doesn’t count (tiebreaker removes the first home game of the team with more home games).So for the sake of the tiebreaker the record is:

    Jan 25 EDM 4-0
    Dec 3 EDM 3-2(OT)
    Mar 23 ANA 4-3
    Apr 1 EDM 3-2 (OT)

    So you’re saying there’s a chance….

  127. Chachi says:

    T0ML:

    Probably not for the best legally to start a conversation on this here.

  128. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    EC standings using points %. Shown as “points over/under .500” to see spreads between teams.

    Pres-WSH36
    x-PIT30
    x-CBJ27
    y-MTL21
    x-NYR20
    OTT15
    TOR14
    x-BOS14
    ——————–
    TBY9
    NYI9
    CAR5
    PHI5
    BUF-2
    FLA-2
    DET-4
    NJD-9

    TBY and NYI need to win out and a lot of help.

    1 more point and OTT clinches.2 more points and TOR clinches.Both have 3 games left

    EC games tonight:

    OTT at BOS – Karlsson banged up again.With Karlsson the Trappers have a slim chance vs BOS.Without him they have almost none.

    PIT at NJD – PIT’s starting Dcorps is:

    Cole-Schultz (was 3rd pair to start the year)
    Duomolin-Hainsey – while the 1st pair gets more TOI, this pair gets the heavies and lots of them
    Streit – Ruhwedel – *fires up hockeydb*

    PIT should win in a walk

    NYI at CAR – Dougie can’t lose or he’s out

    WPG at CBJ – WPG will win Because Jets Win When It Doesn’t Matter

    TBY at TOR – Marquee game for the playoff race.TOR wins and they’re in.Stamkos still not playing, no Johnson tonight either.

    Not as high on Boston as you are. Either way other than a handful of good plays by Pastrnak and Marchand this will be a crap game.

  129. Bag of Pucks says:

    Season on the line for the Bs and Marchand gets a two game vacay. That seems unsmart on his part.

  130. Bag of Pucks says:

    T0ML:
    So uh …. im going to guess its BS?

    http://variety.com/2017/biz/news/greice-santo-daryl-katz-rj-cipriani-canadian-billionaire-1202021527/

    Apparently Katz said he would give this lady a role for sex …

    Go oilers !, is it the 80s again (Coming from a 90s baby)?

    A billionaire tried to use his money and power to convince a pretty girl to have sex with him? I’m shocked!

  131. Georges says:

    In 2011-12, Darryl Sutter took over as HC and the Kings finished 2nd in 5v5 CF%. They went on to win the Cup that year. Every season since, likely including this one, the Kings have finished #1 in 5v5 CF%. Here’s the rundown:

    11-12 54.8 (2)
    12-13 56.3 (1)
    13-14 56.8 (1)
    14-15 55.4 (1)
    15-16 56.4 (1)
    16-17 55.1 (1)

    Famous quotes from Sutter during their 13-14 run:

    “The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending.”

    “The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone (say) they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”

    Source: http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/news/la-kings-news-darryl-sutter-quotes-corsi-for-definition-sidney-crosby/1ty2k6440ww8213spqckr4u09n

    The Kings still have the puck. They don’t have the results.

    Has the game changed?

  132. spoiler says:

    Georges,

    That particular statement by Sutter has been quoted many times here.

  133. Lowetide says:

    The Kings still have the puck. They don’t have the results.

    Has the game changed?

    I think you have to employ at least some skill, and the LAK simply don’t have enough of it. Plus they all got old in a hurry. But they have been a splendid possession team, and they did get a little unlucky in some areas (Russian blue sent home on merit). I think the template is strong.

  134. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0: When the linesman takes forever to drop the puck and then kicks one of the centers out, stand up and yell:

    “DROP THE DAMN PUCK ZEBRA, YOU’RE NOT THE SHOW!!!”

    One might expect that to be quickly followed by… “SIT DOWN, NEITHER ARE YOU!!!” …from another member of the peanut gallery.

    Note: I also have a difficult time not sharing my opinions with the crowd at games… for better or worse.

  135. npanciroli says:

    Pouzar,

    Hope everything ends up okay Pouzar, best wishes.

  136. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: Best wishes from everyone, Pouzar. I don’t know a thing about that condition but have had experiencein worrying about kids and can say they are strong and can adapt. More importantly, every child deserves good parents for days just like this one. I’m glad your little man has you.

    Well said. Sounds like others here may be having similar difficulties as well.

  137. ashley says:

    Georges:
    In 2011-12, Darryl Sutter took over as HC and the Kings finished 2nd in 5v5 CF%. They went on to win the Cup that year. Every season since, likely including this one, the Kings have finished #1 in 5v5 CF%. Here’s the rundown:

    11-12 54.8 (2)
    12-13 56.3 (1)
    13-14 56.8 (1)
    14-15 55.4 (1)
    15-16 56.4 (1)
    16-17 55.1 (1)

    Famous quotes from Sutter during their 13-14 run:

    “The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending.”

    “The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone (say) they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”

    Source: http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/news/la-kings-news-darryl-sutter-quotes-corsi-for-definition-sidney-crosby/1ty2k6440ww8213spqckr4u09n

    The Kings still have the puck. They don’t have the results.

    Has the game changed?

    It’s the quality of that possession that is missing from the crude shot based metrics. RTB has been pounding the drum for years. It is the quality aspect that makes high level hockey brass not trust the fancy stats. Fancy stats can make Shooter McGavin look pretty good, but he takes a lot of poor quality chances when great ones are available with just a turn of his head or a pause in his step. The play seems to frequently die with Shooter McGavin who is always hell bent for leather, but yet his fancy stats are some of the best in the league.

    It doesn’t add up for them. I recall an interview with Eberle, a bright guy, and he scoffed at the shot based metrics. He understands that simply counting shots for and against without understanding the quality of the chances will not lead to an understanding of the game at a level deep enough to make conclusions about players/teams, or to make decisions for that matter.

  138. Ribs says:

    I think the Kings got a bad bunch of sticks this year. They’re still shooting more than anyone, but nothing is going in. It’s nuts.

  139. The Hermit says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March!!

    Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

    It’s easy!

    Kicking things off:

    I’ll predict Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.

    10-9

    16-11 Hunter.

  140. Chachi says:

    HALFWALL:
    I’ve been lurking and enjoying the site for the past 2 years.First time posting.

    I moved to Edmonton as a child and got hooked on the Oilers since the 1983 NYI SCF sweep.1984-88 were the heights of glory.I moved to the US right after the Gretzky trade but have stayed a fan ever since.It was challenging – especially during the decade of shame.My interest waned but has never fully snuffed out.

    The golden ticket changed everything and I started paying much closer attention again.I subscribed to Center Ice.I really enjoy the mix of detailed analysis, raw/senseless emotion, generosity and occasional assholery on this fine site.I’ve learned and laughed a lot. Thanks to our kind host for incubating and cultivating this unique community.

    I live and work in the Silicon Valley today. I’m going to the Shark Tank tonight with my wife.She’s not much of a hockey fan but has passionately followed Tennis since she was a little girl.Steffi Graf was/is her idol.I tell her that McDavid is hockey’s Steffi Graf right.Graceful, electrifying and a stone cold killer all at the same time.

    We’ll see what she thinks

    Things I would do at an Oilers game in San Jose:

    1. Find Neil Young, tell him a southern man don’t need him around anyhow, and that he left his bus running in the parking lot.
    2. Watch Neil Young watching Connor McDavid playing hockey and just enjoy the hell out of that for a while.
    3. Ask Sharks fans if they remember how awesome the series in 2006 was.
    4. I assume there is good Mexican food there – if so, enjoy good Mexican food.
    5. Find Neil Young again and offer to fill up his bus with the by-products of the good Mexican food.

  141. Jethro Tull says:

    Georges,

    I’ve always believed that this was just a touch of misdirection from an old Alberta farmer. He told the truth but not all of it. Bearing in mind that this is a guy who had a two time Vezina nominee and a Norris winner on the back end. And he pre-supposes the other team is just going to let LA have the puck without a fight. I think other teams now say, sure you can have the puck. You can have the puck over there all you want. Maybe the HDSC’s year over year would shed some light on it.

  142. fifthcartel says:

    My guess is it’s how Sutter makes the corsi sausage.

    Top-6 forwards and top-4 D total 5v5 TOI

    11-12

    Kopitar
    Brown
    Williams
    Richards
    Stoll
    Penner

    Scuderi
    Doughty
    Mitchell
    Greene

    13-14

    Kopitar
    Williams
    Brown
    King
    Richard
    Carter

    Doughty
    Voynov
    Mitchell
    Regher

    16-17

    Kopitar
    Carter
    T. Lewis
    Brown
    Pearson/Iginla
    Toffoli
    Clifford

    Doughty
    Forbort
    Muzzin
    Martinez

    Seeing Lewis and Clifford play as much as they do is probably not good. Forbort seems interesting, but I’m pretty sure he’s being carried by Doughty.

    Even last year they had Lucic and Versteeg for part of the year which helped put Lewis and co down the chart.

  143. OF17 says:

    WG, very enjoyable Oilers Now piece. I think that’s the sort of thing that will get more Oilers fans into fancy stats, since you ground them in significance very well. Also, props to Bob for wanting to give stats such a platform and being genuinely interested in learning more about them. He’s not just paying lip service in that interview, he’s genuinely trying to understand what you have to say and to expose more people to a novel viewpoint. Nice to see.

  144. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Thornton and Couture supposed to be day-to-day and for sure ready for wednesday next week. Gord damn!

  145. Scungilli says:

    Pouzar:
    One minute you are watching hockey, baseball, basketball the next minute yer at the Hospital with your 7 yr talking to neurologists about why he is fainting all of a sudden. Take this shit for granted and the big guy throws the 12 to 6 curve ball.

    To all of you in difficult waters, thoughts and prayers are with you. All the best.

  146. Georges says:

    Here’s the 5v5 TOI for the Oilers in 2015-16 in different game states:

    Total 3912

    Leading 842
    Trailing 1444
    Tied 1625

    And here’s 2016-17:

    Total 3852

    Leading 1280
    Trailing 1127
    Tied 1444

    The Oilers have played about 5 more minutes a game with the lead and about 4 fewer minutes trailing. They’ve had to learn to manage different game states than they were used to last year.

    When you have the lead, the marginal benefit of a GF is always less than the marginal cost of a GA. The trailing team’s incentive to generate CF events is therefore higher than the leading team’s. And it’s progressively higher as the deficit increases (up to a point) and time winds down. Coaches understand this.

    The Oilers have had to play the cautious don’t give up a goal game more this year. They don’t have a long history of doing that. Their instincts for that type of game might not be that great. I think TMac is drilling into their heads the fixed idea that if you don’t know what to do, hang around close to Talbot and try and do something useful to help him if he needs your help.

    Ranking on 5v5 CF% when Leading: 19
    Ranking on 5v5 CF% when Tied: 20

    Baby steps here because, as a group, they’re learning to play defensive hockey, learning all year.

    When they’re trailing, however, they let their hair down, stop worrying so much and just get after it.

    Ranking on 5v5 CF% when Trailing: 6
    Ranking on 5v5 FF% when Trailing: 4
    Ranking on 5v5 GF% when Trailing: 1

    This is why I really don’t believe the Oilers are a mediocre possession team.

  147. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Thornton and Couture supposed to be day-to-day and for sure ready for wednesday next week. Gord damn!

    Misinformation highway is packed these days, Thornton looked hurt to me and that wasn’t a month ago. We’ll see how this plays out.

  148. admiralmark says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Thornton and Couture supposed to be day-to-day and for sure ready for wednesday next week. Gord damn!

    Playing vs Playing 100% healthy can be vastly different. Its still a good matchup.

  149. Georges says:

    WG:

    On your comment yesterday about using 5v5 score and venue adjusted FF% from Mar. 1 to the end of season to predict the outcome of playoff matchups. I stayed on the sidelines during that exchange because you were addressing a bigger issue.

    You have to be careful when you have limited data for your model/heuristic, in this case 45 playoff series in the past 3 years. You’ve chosen a heuristic based on its success with historical data. There will always be a heuristic/model that fits the data if you look long enough; expand the number of possible models you consider wide enough and one of them will fit. (Why Mar. 1? Why score and venue adjusted FF%?)

    What you’re interested in really is how well your model predicts the future (data it hasn’t seen) rather than how well it fits the past (data it has seen)

    If we’re going by that heuristic this year, it looks like BOS and WSH will be favored in the EC and MIN and SJS will be favored in the WC. We can lay out the predictions at the start of each round and see how we do. If it does well, it doesn’t mean we’re free and clear. The best we can say is that it worked this time. And remember, we’re only going to be predicting 15 outcomes. I think we’d have to be above 75% correct with the predictions to be inclined to believe that the model is statistically better than 50-50.

    One thing that bothers me about that model, though, is that it takes in no new information from the playoff rounds as they’re played. It only looks at how well teams were playing at the end of the season.

    I know that once you get into the playoffs, the best regular season possession teams may keep winning but it’s not often because they’re the best playoff possession team. Their PDO tends to heat up and PDO streaks are a handful for opponents to deal with. When LAK won their first Cup, they were a below average possession team during the playoffs. But they had Quick.

  150. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Best wishes from everyone, Pouzar. I don’t know a thing about that condition but have had experiencein worrying about kids and can say they are strong and can adapt. More importantly, every child deserves good parents for days just like this one. I’m glad your little man has you.

    Thx LT

  151. Lowetide says:

    Coach Sutter is going out naming names, it appears
    http://www.ocregister.com/articles/wasn-748690-sutter-kings.html

  152. Ribs says:

    He better have some bigger names than that!

  153. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: I’m with you brother. Going through something very similar. Here and the Oilers are my therapy.

    Thx bro!

    I wish health and happiness for your family going forward.

  154. HALFWALL says:

    bendelson,

    Thanks! The crowd is not as intense as in Canada but the fanbase is pretty committed actually. Nice building too but it’s no Rogers Place.

  155. Pouzar says:

    meanashell11:
    Pouzar,

    Been there. Took years to figure it out. My son had heart syncope.

    It is not fun to watch but a suggestion is to wire him up and do a tilt table test. You will know after that.

    My son is now 23 and in great shape. The fainting is now maybe once a year, especially if lacking sleep and under stress. It used to be once a week, sometimes more.

    I wont go into the treatment he had as everyone is different. If you want to know, have LT send you my email.

    Good luck.

    Thank you, this was a very thoughtful post and I appreciate it. I hope to get a better understanding of what my Son is facing but he is doing great right now.

  156. ChiliChunk says:

    Mark Spector‏Verified account @SportsnetSpec 4h4 hours ago

    Anaheim Ducks getting a soft Blackhawks lineup tonight.

    Tracey Myers‏Verified account @TramyersCSN 4h4 hours ago

    So no Toews, Keith, Seabrook or Hossa tonight. Or Hjalmarsson. #Blackhawks

  157. HALFWALL says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    LOL. Maybe they’re trying to avoid another Vermette situation.

  158. Pouzar says:

    VanIsleOil:
    Pouzar,

    My thoughts are with you Pouzar, hope it all turns outwell for you and your family. Like you and Jethro,I am also going through some difficult times and I really do come here forhockey talk and therapy. LT’s place is and has been a great place for me.

    My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. Stay strong my friend and I hear ya, this place is a pretty awesome get away!

  159. admiralmark says:

    ashley:

    It doesn’t add up for them.I recall an interview with Eberle, a bright guy, and he scoffed at the shot based metrics.He understands that simply counting shots for and against without understanding the quality of the chances will not lead to an understanding of the game at a level deep enough to make conclusions about players/teams, or to make decisions for that matter.

    Sooooo that’s why he’s always dusting that puck off! 😛

  160. Pouzar says:

    treevojo: Feel your guys pain.

    Been in the hospital for 4 days now with my son.

    Should have been out on Tuesday.

    Oil better bring it tonight.

    Oh man that is terrible. Thoughts and prayers are with you.

    GO OILERS!

  161. HALFWALL says:

    Chachi,

    I had to look up the Neil Young references – ha ha!

    2006 was a bitter pill for sure. I thought the Sharks were the best team we faced that year. I have no idea to this day how we pulled that out.

  162. Lowetide says:

    Marino’s Harvard team are tied 1-1 late third against Minn-Duluth

  163. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: Misinformation highway is packed these days, Thornton looked hurt to me and that wasn’t a month ago. We’ll see how this plays out.

    Guys playing with one leg attached with duct tape and safety pins in the playoffs isn’t a new thing. How effective willl they be is the question? You take another step from Thorntons stride him and Hendricks should race during the intermission

  164. Todd Macallan says:

    Lowetide,

    Nice interview with Mess talking about his nephew on Harvard, Luke Esposito. Remeber him during the last couple rookie camps, not surprisingly stood out for his work ethic in the games.

  165. Chachi says:

    HALFWALL:
    Chachi,

    I had to look up the Neil Young references – ha ha!

    2006 was a bitter pill for sure.I thought the Sharks were the best team we faced that year.I have no idea to this day how we pulled that out.

    Raffi knocking Michalek out for the rest of the series, in game 3 if I recall correctly, had more than a little to do with it.
    Edit to add it was game 2 (I am wrong about everything; it is who I am) and what Jethro said below was also a big factor.

  166. Pouzar says:

    Rocknrolla,
    blainer,
    Shane,
    speeds,
    Woodguy v2.0,
    bendelson,
    Melvis,
    kinger_OIL,
    Georges,
    spoiler,
    McSorley33,
    frjohnk,
    npanciroli,
    Scungilli,

    I read them all and appreciate the **** out of em all!

    I really have to call my folks…..what time is it these days in NL Blainer?????

    GO OILERS!!!

  167. Jethro Tull says:

    HALFWALL:
    Chachi,

    I had to look up the Neil Young references – ha ha!

    2006 was a bitter pill for sure.I thought the Sharks were the best team we faced that year.I have no idea to this day how we pulled that out.

    Chris Pronger bullying Cheechoo until the Rocket Richard winner was scared to come on the ice. I still maintain that was the moment Cheechoo’s career ended.

  168. Lowetide says:

    Minnesota-Duluth wins it, Harvard is out.

  169. Lowetide says:

    3-1 Peterborough in their opener against Kingston, 12:36 left and Wells has stopped 20 of 21.

  170. spoiler says:

    Hahvuhd loses to Minn-Duluth.

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Season on the line for the Bs and Marchand gets a two game vacay. That seems unsmart on his part.

    BOS clinched already

  172. Yeti says:

    Pouzar:
    One minute you are watching hockey, baseball, basketball the next minute yer at the Hospital with your 7 yr talking to neurologists about why he is fainting all of a sudden. Take this shit for granted and the big guy throws the 12 to 6 curve ball.

    Crap. Sorry to hear this. Best of luck to you all.

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OF17:
    WG, very enjoyable Oilers Now piece. I think that’s the sort of thing that will get more Oilers fans into fancy stats, since you ground them in significance very well. Also, props to Bob for wanting to give stats such a platform and being genuinely interested in learning more about them. He’s not just paying lip service in that interview, he’s genuinely trying to understand what you have to say and to expose more people to a novel viewpoint. Nice to see.

    Thank you.

    Bob’s genuinely interested in fancy stats.

    Had Tyler on his show when Tyler openly mocked the Oilers even though Bob works for him.

    Had Jonathan on the show after Tyler.

  174. Centre of attention says:

    I hope the Oilers don’t go into this game sleeping on the Sharks due to a lack of Thorton/Couture.

    If the Oilers come out with some jump and score two early, victory can almost be assured. But if they have another sleepy first period I don’t like their chances chasing the Sharks who will be trapping it up hard to compensate for the injured talent.

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    I always mention that goaltending can trump all.

    My own personal metric weight SV% quite heavily and does as well as FF% over the last 5 years.

  176. spoiler says:

    treevojo,

    So sad to hear that. Hope things improve and all the best to you and yours.

    Crazy week, crazy day.

    Edit… Punctuated by reports of over 50 Tomahawks launched at Syria.

  177. Seismic Source says:

    If I had a Billion dollars, the last business I would get into would be movies.

  178. The Hermit says:

    Chachi: Raffi knocking Michalek out for the rest of the series, in game 3 if I recall correctly, had more than a little to do with it.
    Edit to add it was game 2 (I am wrong about everything; it is who I am) and what Jethro said below was also a big factor.

    If I remember correctly Vlasic was injured during that series and the Sharks weren’t the same after that.

  179. Chachi says:

    The Hermit: If I remember correctly Vlasic was injured during that series and the Sharks weren’t the same after that.

    No, Vlasic played the entirety of the playoffs that year. He didn’t help the Sharks much though, because he was still playing for the Quebec Remparts in junior.

  180. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    Rocknrolla,
    blainer,
    Shane,
    speeds,
    Woodguy v2.0,
    bendelson,
    Melvis,
    kinger_OIL,
    Georges,
    spoiler,
    McSorley33,
    frjohnk,
    npanciroli,
    Scungilli,

    I read them all and appreciate the **** out of em all!

    I really have to call my folks…..what time is it these days in NL Blainer?????

    GO OILERS!!!

    Its 11 04 here pouzar.

  181. Lowetide says:

    Treevojo: Just catching up on the blog (re-reading) and wanted to pass along my best to you (and to the others who are facing some tough moments). Seems these things come in waves, hope it all works out well for everyone. I can tell you that there have been times when this place was my escape when kid things were overwhelming and I needed a place to go. good thing this joint is 24 hours. 🙂

  182. Lowetide says:

    Wells and the Petes win 4-2, Wells stopping 27 or 29, .931

  183. The Hermit says:

    Chachi: No, Vlasic played the entirety of the playoffs that year. He didn’t help the Sharks much though, because he was still playing for the Quebec Remparts in junior.

    Sorry about that.

    #FakeMemories

  184. Chachi says:

    The Hermit: Sorry about that.

    No need to be sorry. 10 years is a long damn time. Vlasic is 30 now!

  185. Seismic Source says:

    Lol. Tebow hits a homer his first minor league at bat? At some point they will make a movie about his career.

    Edit: His swing looks way better than his throw ever did.

  186. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Its 11 04 here pouzar.

    Thanks B!

  187. Pouzar says:

    spoiler: Punctuated by reports of over 50 Tomahawks launched at Syria.

    F6ck.

  188. Professor Q says:

    Chachi: No, Vlasic played the entirety of the playoffs that year. He didn’t help the Sharks much though, because he was still playing for the Quebec Remparts in junior.

    That would have been quite the pickle, it seems.

  189. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    Wells and the Petes win 4-2, Wells stopping 27 or 29, .931

    All’s Wells that ends well?

  190. Todd Macallan says:

    blainer,

    These midnight games out here are killing me.

  191. Younger Oil says:

    I could totally see Toronto losing to PIT and CBJ, and one of Tampa or NYI to win their next two games and put Toronto into 9th.

    That would give me the warm fuzzies.

  192. Chachi says:

    Professor Q: That would have been quite the pickle, it seems.

    Defense is his bread and butter, but the Sharks thought playing him in the NHL that young wasn’t kosher.

  193. danny says:

    #NewfoundlandOilerFans

    Tim Spelliscy on ITV at 11:30 pm

    good times.

  194. JustWatt says:

    Georges:
    Here’s the 5v5 TOI for the Oilers in 2015-16 in different game states:

    Total 3912

    Leading 842
    Trailing 1444
    Tied 1625

    And here’s 2016-17:

    Total 3852

    Leading 1280
    Trailing 1127
    Tied 1444

    The Oilers have played about 5 more minutes a game with the lead and about 4 fewer minutes trailing. They’ve had to learn to manage different game states than they were used to last year.

    When you have the lead, the marginal benefit of a GF is always less than the marginal cost of a GA. The trailing team’s incentive to generate CF events is therefore higher than the leading team’s. And it’s progressively higher as the deficit increases (up to a point) and time winds down. Coaches understand this.

    The Oilers have had to play the cautious don’t give up a goal game more this year. They don’t have a long history of doing that. Their instincts for that type of game might not be that great. I think TMac is drilling into their heads the fixed idea that if you don’t know what to do, hang around close to Talbot and try and do something useful to help him if he needs your help.

    Ranking on 5v5 CF% when Leading: 19
    Ranking on 5v5 CF% when Tied: 20

    Baby steps here because, as a group, they’re learning to play defensive hockey, learning all year.

    When they’re trailing, however, they let their hair down, stop worrying so much and just get after it.

    Ranking on 5v5 CF% when Trailing: 6
    Ranking on 5v5 FF% when Trailing: 4
    Ranking on 5v5 GF% when Trailing: 1

    This is why I really don’t believe the Oilers are a mediocre possession team.

    Don’t know if anyone else has replied to this yet but I love this! Great work. Look at that GF% when trailing! That’s what McDavid looks like when let off the chain!

  195. Pouzar says:

    danny:
    #NewfoundlandOilerFans

    Tim Spelliscy on ITV at 11:30 pm

    good times.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrYtDsBSoP4

  196. Todd Macallan says:

    danny,

    Good to know I’m not the only one up watching in the middle of the night and struggling through the next day!

    #NewfoundlandOilerFans

  197. Lowetide says:

    I’ve always felt NL fans are the best Oilers fans. I love this team, and will be up until 1am writing the morning post, but goodness waiting until bedtime for things to start is kind of crazy.

  198. LMHF#1 says:

    Pouzar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrYtDsBSoP4

    Think I watched that game. Miss Tim Spelliscy

  199. Pescador says:

    Seismic Source:
    If I had a Billion dollars, the last business I would get into would be movies.

    As a former film star, I agree with this.

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