OILERS SIGN PAIGIN, STARRETT

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers continue to add players for the 2017-18 season, making two more additions to the projected 50-man list.

  • In signing 2015 draft pick Ziyat Paigin, Edmonton has four (Connor Mcdavid, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and Paigin) of their six picks under contract. Only John Marino and Miroslav Svoboda remain unsigned from that draft, with Marino having three more years of eligibility at Harvard. It is unclear to me in regard to Svoboda’s rights, NHL teams sometimes retain rights on players long after their signing eligibility expires (they have a secondary reserve list behind the 50-man list).
  • With the signing of goalie Shane Starrett (from the Bellingham Starrett’s), the Oilers are now close to a full boat at the position (probably room for an ECHL starter from the Laurikainen tree). Starrett’s numbers look good from here, he seems to have been starter or damned near all four years leading up to his signing. He’s tall and thin (6.05, 180), ran a .925SP during his time at Army and seems a very solid bet from here. I can’t tell you if he is a better prospect than Nick Ellis, suspect these two men will figure it out on the streets of Bakersfield.

I’m a fan of Paigin because he’s a big defenseman who can defend, plus he can pass the puck well (from what I have seen) and his big shot from the point gets mentioned quite often. Mobility is going to be the key, and if you’re going to ask and my answer, it will be hell if I know but if you see mobility issues in a scouting report you’re halfway to the answer. Always give these kids time though, you don’t know what you don’t know. Now that we have him in North America, let’s let him find his way.

I’m going to be a fan of Shane Starrett because of something Emily Kaplan (of the Boston Kaplan’s) wrote about him back in the summer of 2013. The Boston Globe article is here, and Kaplan wrote about Starrett’s draft experience. Seems he wasn’t interested at all in the NHL draft until he found out he wasn’t on the draft radar. Once Starrett found out about the rankings, and that he wasn’t on the list, that fact motivated him:

  • So began a nine-month stretch in which Starrett became singularly focused. He initiated individual sessions with a goalie coach, had late-night workouts, and endured a few close calls with his boarding school’s strict 11 p.m. curfew.

So he worked his butt off, got ranked, NHL teams passed on him. That’s not the story. The story is that (based on numbers) he has progressed well. So we’ll see, but he’s a worker and he can stop pucks and he’s got his chance and screw all those guys who got drafted. We’ll see.

PROJECTED 50-MAN LIST

Now I’m estimating the RFA’s and suspect the club will buy out Mark Fayne, but I included him just in case. They are going to sign all of these RFA’s, maybe they let Laleggia go but that’s kind of nuts since he scored 20 goals this season.

  • UFA: David Desharnais, Matt Hendricks, Tyler Pitlick, Kris Russell, Eric Gryba, Jonas Gustavsson, Justin Fontaine, Jordan Oesterle, Mark Fraser
  • RFA and not listed: Anton Lander, Henrik Samuelsson, Bogdan Yakimov, Jere Sallinen, Zach Pochiro, Eetu Laurikainen, David Musil.

This looks about right. Keep working, Shane Starrett, we’re cheering for you. Paigin, welcome to North America.

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[…] add some bulk to fill out his frame, but at 6-foot-5 and 180 pounds, there’s a lot to like. The 22-year-old was passed over in the draft, but over the last two seasons has cemented himself as one of the better college goaltenders with […]

"Steve Smith"

Hunter: 2 wins, 4 losses.

Spartacus

Hunter,

Win 14 games.

Lose 10 games.

Oilers forever!

Truth

Starrett’s had an interesting path to signing an NHL contract. Private school, to boarding school in high school, verbally commits to BU in 2013, but plays 2 years in the USHL before actually going to Air Force Academy and signing a pro contract after his sophomore season. If his goal truly was to disprove the doubters after not being ranked as a prospect, huge respect. Life at the US military academies is quite different from the typical college experience.

russ99

Do we think that Dillon Simpson sticks?

Considering the CHL graduates, the leftorium and that non-tendering Simpson clears a spot?

I don’t see him clearing the 100 NHL game mark.

Other than his pedigree (which shouldn’t be a reason anymore for this club) I don’t see a reason to give him a 2-way deal.

frjohnk

Woodguy v2.0: I gained a lot of respect for Eberle this summer.

Its EBERLE!!!! Damn it.

So much for respect.

frjohnk

Craig Custance‏Verified account @CraigCustance 16m16 minutes ago

If I were predicting the coach openings, I’d put the favorites like this:
Dallas – Hitchcock
Van – Green
Florida – Eakins
Vegas – Capuano

The day Eakins gets hired as an NHL coach ( and I think it will happen) will be interesting.

Pouzar

Woodguy v2.0: I gained a lot of respect for Eberle this summer.

Some of us……. 😛

Woodguy v2.0

rickithebear:
Piagin:
Skate?
3:20
Yup!

Defend?
4:30
Engage one and break lane withstick on another!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmdfZGqLkao

Woodguy:

Eberle:
repeatability!
regression to career mean!

Only six years to get it.

Your forgiven cause until you went thru the Dbase exercise most would not get it!

remember this one from 2 years ago.

forwards with 23 goals and 63 points
year to year last 5 seasons.
from 11-12 to 14-15
12-13 season is .585 of a season so divide by .585 16G 37P
4 forward
Eberle
Kane
Ovechkin
Tavares.

in 15-16 he was injured for 13gm
Came back early for 13gm cause Mcdavid was out.
last 56gm of season22G 44P
80gm pace of
31.5G 63P

Repeatability!
how many of those 4 averaged PvP for that time?
1 fwd in the whole NHL

the man!

I gained a lot of respect for Eberle this summer.

I ran his numbers to see how much his offence decreased away from Hall and the answer was “not much”

He’s much better than the fan base thinks and he’s my Actual Candidate to be Run Out of Town unless he kills it in the playoffs.

I think there is a good chance he kills it in the playoffs too.

jp

rickithebear,

What’s PvP at the end there?

The other 3 have also had a far higher ceiling than Eberle, but point taken.

rickithebear

Piagin:
Skate?
3:20
Yup!

Defend?
4:30
Engage one and break lane withstick on another!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmdfZGqLkao

Woodguy:

Eberle:
repeatability!
regression to career mean!

Only six years to get it.

Your forgiven cause until you went thru the Dbase exercise most would not get it!

remember this one from 2 years ago.

forwards with 23 goals and 63 points
year to year last 5 seasons.
from 11-12 to 14-15
12-13 season is .585 of a season so divide by .585 16G 37P
4 forward
Eberle
Kane
Ovechkin
Tavares.

in 15-16 he was injured for 13gm
Came back early for 13gm cause Mcdavid was out.
last 56gm of season 22G 44P
80gm pace of
31.5G 63P

Repeatability!
how many of those 4 averaged PvP for that time?
1 fwd in the whole NHL

the man!

Crazy Pedestrian

Hey hunter, Not sure if I mentioned it properly or not the last time, but just in case, put me down for 16-10 please.

Zelepukin

hunter1909:
Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March is here!! Anyone can play!!

Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

It’s easy!

For example:
hunter1909 predicts Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.
10-9

Entries accepted right up until the first puck drop of the Oilers 2017 playoffs.

it’s both scary and awesome that everyone has us winning the first round and most have us winning the 2nd. Playoffs are basically impossible to predict.

teamblue

Hunter,

Put me down for 14-11 please

GMB3

From my limited viewing of him during his time in the AHL so far, I’d also say Paigin looks like he could put on weight. He looks like a bean stalk to me out there. Some of his defensive prowess that came at lower levels might have been because of his reach.

He’s an interesting prospect though. I just watched his world junior highlight video. He cocks the stick back like he’s Jamie Sadlowski at a long drive competition

delooper

Somebody’s got to be wildly optimistic and wrong. Put me down for 16-0 !

kgo

Hunter,

Back in 2003, in my high school yearbook, I predicted the Oil would win the cup in 2017….

I’ll say 16W and i’m not guessing losses, If they win, i’ll submit my prediction in writing and thus win all tiebreakers.

hunter1909

Hunter1909’s 2017 NHL Playoff Death March is here!! Anyone can play!!

Here’s how to play: Predict the number of Oiler wins (0-16)and for tie breaking purposes choose how many losses they take(0-12) during the upcoming playoffs.

It’s easy!

For example:
hunter1909 predicts Oilers win 10 games, and lose 9 as they make the WCF.
10-9

Entries accepted right up until the first puck drop of the Oilers 2017 playoffs.

Professor Q

dustrock:
How Near, How Far – a Trail of Dead reference in hockey? Man you sure get the rabbit hole on Lowetide.Source Tags & Codes is a top 10 album of the Ought a.

Here predicting Oilers in Stanley Cup Finals vs the Pens, McDavid goes Super Saiyan but not enough to win, Edmonton leaves vastly satisfied anyway.

I was thinking the same, but against Washington. They finally make it back, and this time with Ovechkin!

Edmonton_fan

Not a fast skater like Nurse – but drafted much later – and older. I suspect he has a chance of an NHL career.

http://www.dobberprospects.com/ziyat-paigin-2/

Paigin’s skating is not that bad…

dustrock

How Near, How Far – a Trail of Dead reference in hockey? Man you sure get the rabbit hole on Lowetide. Source Tags & Codes is a top 10 album of the Ought a.

Here predicting Oilers in Stanley Cup Finals vs the Pens, McDavid goes Super Saiyan but not enough to win, Edmonton leaves vastly satisfied anyway.

npanciroli

Larsson’s twitter game and moustache are what drives this teams success.

Diesel

Hunter,

16 – 10

Let’s go.

Woodguy v2.0

Spengler: He’s revised the stats (apparently done by hand, Cheers for the effort, Woodguy!) And posted them on Twitter.

Order is:

McDavid 3.02
Draisaitl 2.31
Maroon 2.15
Eberle 2.02
Kassian 1.72
Lucic 1.5
Slept 1.46
Pouliot 1.44
Nuge 1.26
Caggiula 1.25

All credit to Woodguy. I hope I haven’t stepped on toes by posting this.

Not at all, I appreciate it.

I forgot I put them up here else I would have corrected that too.

Thanks.

Woodguy v2.0

jp:
Yeah, this doesn’t add up, right?

The above would mean 2/3 of McDavid and Draisaitl’s points are 2nd assists, unless I’m reading wrong.

Yeah, the first post was wrong

Corsica’s matrix is glitchy

Here’s the correct version:

EDM Primary Points/60 (goals and 1st assists) Since March 1.

CONNOR.MCDAVID 3.02
LEON.DRAISAITL 2.31
PATRICK.MAROON 2.15
JORDAN.EBERLE 2.02
ZACK.KASSIAN 1.72
MILAN.LUCIC 1.50
ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 1.46
BENOIT.POULIOT 1.44
RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 1.26
DRAKE.CAGGIULA 1.25
IIRO.PAKARINEN 1.15
DAVID.DESHARNAIS 0.93
DARNELL.NURSE 0.70
MATT.BENNING 0.66
ANDREJ.SEKERA 0.62
ERIC.GRYBA 0.53
OSCAR.KLEFBOM 0.39
MARK.LETESTU 0.38
ADAM.LARSSON 0.38
KRIS.RUSSELL 0.22
JUJHAR.KHAIRA 0.00
MATT.HENDRICKS 0.00

The median first line rate is ~1.60

McDavid is 2.31 for the year

Lloyd B.

GMB3: Eh! you’re probably right. But I’m still hoping for the best

Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

GMB3

Lloyd B.: At 24 that is what you are thinking for sure.

You are invincible and know it will be different when you get here.

Who knows, perhaps it will be for you.

If I was one of the math guys here I could show you the probabilities and back it up with stats.

I’m only an eyes guy so will defer to our more learned colleagues to back my claims up.

Eh! you’re probably right. But I’m still hoping for the best

Diablo

Colieo87:
Kings cleaning house

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/purge-in-la-caps-off-day-of-bloodletting-in-nhl-1.721145

Like Chia, Lombardi will probably find a soft landing as GM for another NHL franchise soon. Cup winning GMs are few and far between.

Sutter is a damn good coach, he’ll find work again if he wants it.

Lloyd B.

GMB3: That actually wouldn’t be the worst scenario. He’s in fairly good shape with a nice head of white hair at (almost) 67. Gave me something to look forward too, sorta.

At 24 that is what you are thinking for sure.

You are invincible and know it will be different when you get here.

Who knows, perhaps it will be for you.

If I was one of the math guys here I could show you the probabilities and back it up with stats.

I’m only an eyes guy so will defer to our more learned colleagues to back my claims up. 🙂

Material Elvis

GMB3:

He’s not a good skater from what I watched. Very stork-like.

Skates like he’s delivering babies.

Colieo87
GMB3

Lloyd B.: The problem is you keep filling out your frame.

Next thing you know you are in your fifties and look like your dad.

That actually wouldn’t be the worst scenario. He’s in fairly good shape with a nice head of white hair at (almost) 67. Gave me something to look forward too, sorta.

--hudson--

In case you missed it, a famous clip of Paigin from the 2015 WJHC
https://youtu.be/rpntO0p8cb0

Lloyd B.

Diablo: I’ve been down on Ebs and Nuge this year, but I was wrong on both accounts – they’ve both turned their season’s around. I’m back on board with the idea of “get good players, keep good players”.

I really like that 2nd line – they’ve taken a while to gel, but they’ve got good chemistry now – each guy brings a different element.
I hope Chia finds a way to keep both the 1st and 2nd line together through next season.

Next year is pretty easy. When McDavids contract the year after kicks in however…

Diablo

admiralmark: Nuge was fantastic that last game and wasn’t given much credit for his play(as per usual). Having said that Eberle was great as well. I believe we are about to see just what these two are made of in the next 4-28 games. I really believe throw out everything so far. How they respond to the intense pressure of playoff hockey is likely going to play a major role in Chiarelli decision on where to go with these 2 players.

I’ve been down on Ebs and Nuge this year, but I was wrong on both accounts – they’ve both turned their season’s around. I’m back on board with the idea of “get good players, keep good players”.

I really like that 2nd line – they’ve taken a while to gel, but they’ve got good chemistry now – each guy brings a different element.
I hope Chia finds a way to keep both the 1st and 2nd line together through next season.

jp

Spengler: He’s revised the stats (apparently done by hand, Cheers for the effort, Woodguy!) And posted them on Twitter.

Order is:

McDavid 3.02
Draisaitl 2.31
Maroon 2.15
Eberle 2.02
Kassian 1.72
Lucic 1.5
Slept 1.46
Pouliot 1.44
Nuge 1.26
Caggiula 1.25

All credit to Woodguy. I hope I haven’t stepped on toes by posting this.

Cool, makes more sense.

Spengler

jp:
Yeah, this doesn’t add up, right?

The above would mean 2/3 of McDavid and Draisaitl’s points are 2nd assists, unless I’m reading wrong.

He’s revised the stats (apparently done by hand, Cheers for the effort, Woodguy!) And posted them on Twitter.

Order is:

McDavid 3.02
Draisaitl 2.31
Maroon 2.15
Eberle 2.02
Kassian 1.72
Lucic 1.5
Slept 1.46
Pouliot 1.44
Nuge 1.26
Caggiula 1.25

All credit to Woodguy. I hope I haven’t stepped on toes by posting this.

BONE207

No hockey for 2 days…then real hockey. This season has been surreal what with the trepidation of the past woes creeping into the back of one’s mind and denying a full joyous experience. That pent up anticipation and joy will make for a noisy Easter week. It’s almost 2 years since I saw the golden ticket and signed up as a Lowetidian because of that moment. It’s wonderful to be an Oilers fan once again.

Hunter, I’ll say: 10-11. Thanks for this.

Chachi

delooper:
A lot of McDavid’s 2nd assists are the most important play in the goal.Not certain taking those away helps inform on who is doing what in a play.

I agree.

Oil2Oilers

Romulus Apotheosis,

Forgot about your healthy love of music ?

delooper

A lot of McDavid’s 2nd assists are the most important play in the goal. Not certain taking those away helps inform on who is doing what in a play.

jp

Woodguy v2.0:

Oiler players 5v5 pts/60 since March 1.

CONNOR.MCDAVID3.89
LEON.DRAISAITL3.24

Oilers 5v5 PRIMARY pts/60 (these are goals and 1st assists only, show who is driving play)
PlayerP160

CONNOR.MCDAVID1.51
LEON.DRAISAITL0.93

Spengler:
Centre of attention,

I believe Woodguy had to revise his list due to problems with the corsica site.

Yeah, this doesn’t add up, right?

The above would mean 2/3 of McDavid and Draisaitl’s points are 2nd assists, unless I’m reading wrong.

Diablo

John Chambers:
Man, Blake and Robitaille running the Kings.

I’ll reserve judgement until the summer is over, but this has the potential to go Roy / Sakic.

They’ve got to find some inexpensive wingers, or find a way to pawn Dustin Brown off on Vegas without surrendering much.

Same thing happened in Vancouver too. You’d think that these owners would have learned that nepotism is a bad idea from Edmonton’s example?

Hopefully the next to follow this trend will be Anaheim – Perry is decline and Getzlaff and Kesler will follow in the next few years. All they have to do is hire Selanne as team president and Kariya as GM, and the Oilers will own the division for the next decade.

admiralmark

Centre of attention:
Woodguy v2.0,

Eberle is almost indispensable at this point.

IMO he was the straw who stirred the Poo-Nuge-Ebs line in the back half of the ’15 season while Hall was hurt and that line was shooting the lights out.

If Eberle was shooting at his career %, (13 or so) he would have 28 goals on the year and ~60 points. The fact he missed the 60 point mark can be almost completely attributed to career low in shooting %. I’m betting on a regression to the mean and I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit 60 or higher next year.

In fact, not only do I think he should stay but I’m going to be the first to say the Oilers need to find a way to get this guy re-signed to a reasonable contract. And when it comes down to it, Eberle has already made his money. Maybe he takes something a little bit more reasonable in order to stay close to home (lives with wife in Calgary) as well as hitch a ride on the Connor train for the rest of the decade.

Nuge can be replaced with cheaper Nuge (hurts to say) but you don’t just find 55-60 point wingers laying around. You draft them and develop them. (or over pay them in free agency, hello Oshie) we have drafted and developed Eberle and damnit, he should stay!

My 2 cents. ( i know others will disagree because “lazyness” and because “overpaid” and because…)

Nuge was fantastic that last game and wasn’t given much credit for his play(as per usual). Having said that Eberle was great as well. I believe we are about to see just what these two are made of in the next 4-28 games. I really believe throw out everything so far. How they respond to the intense pressure of playoff hockey is likely going to play a major role in Chiarelli decision on where to go with these 2 players.

Material Elvis

LT, why do you hate Ladislav Larsson?

Don’t mind me

Westchester Oil: Lombardi deserves to go because of all the bad contracts he handed out, but no way should Sutter go. They won the Cup in ’12 and ’14 because of Sutter, and now he’s turned into a useless coach?? Don’t blame him for the aging, overpaid players Lombardi has given him.

Lombardi has put the Kings in a tight spot with some of the contracts, for sure. Also not enough scoring.

In regards to Sutter, his teams are disciplined but all coaches have a shelf life. Looks like they recognize that there will be no more Stanley’s with that group.

Victoria Oil

The Hermit:
Sutter and Lombardi let go in LA.

Lombardi deserves to go because of all the bad contracts he handed out, but no way should Sutter go. They won the Cup in ’12 and ’14 because of Sutter, and now he’s turned into a useless coach?? Don’t blame him for the aging, overpaid players Lombardi has given him.

Lloyd B.

GMB3: Isn’t he like 22? Does that mean at 24 I could still be growing into my 6’1 frame?

He’s not a good skater from what I watched. Very stork-like.

The problem is you keep filling out your frame.

Next thing you know you are in your fifties and look like your dad.

Centre of attention

https://www.nhl.com/news/why-edmonton-oilers-will-win-stanley-cup/c-288633774

Did anyone see this?

Sorry if it was posted already.

Melvis

Woodguy v2.0,

You sure put in a hell of a lot of work on this stuff morning, noon, and night. Thanks.