HOUSE CALLS

by Lowetide

This is going to an interesting summer in Edmonton. No matter how well everyone plays during the postseason, there are holes to be filled, cap issues to be solved, and an expansion draft that could take a good player from the roster. Free-agent signings and the draft, and of course making the playoffs will shorten the timeline to get things done. What will the McDavid contract look like? Draisaitl’s deal? Today, I want to look at the RFA and UFA deals still on the books, so we can understand that element of summer.

Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved

NHL FORWARDS (RFA DIVISION)

  1. C Leon Draisaitl $3.4M (including bonuses) $925,000 (base salary) 82gp, 29-48-77, 2.05 5×5/60 5×5 scoring. Huge season by the 2014 first-round pick and the Oilers are going to pay him beginning in the fall. I have seen Aleksandr Barkov’s contract being mentioned, it’s six years times $5.9M. Edmonton may decide to slow play with a bridge deal, not sure that’s going to be any kind of bargain. The club will be signing Leon without knowing if he can push an entire line and that means there is risk going long in my opinion.
  2. R Zack Kassian $1.5M 79gp, 7-17-24, 1.74/60 5×5 scoring. It was assured before the playoffs, but Kassian is part of this team moving forward, just as sure as McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse. Cal Clutterbuck’s four-year, $2.75M deal is too high imo, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Kassian’s deal approached that number (depending on length).
  3. C Jujhar Khaira $875,000 10gp, 1-0-1, 0.67/60 5×5 scoring. Big forward is obvious replacement for Matt Hendricks (and that saves a million on the cap) but my guess is he will be an expansion target. For LV, acquiring forwards who can grow into a role may make more sense than picking a veteran who is a year away from free agency (ala Mark Letestu). Khaira’s contract basically writes itself and he won’t cost much more than he did this year. He will be eligible for waivers in 2017-18.
  4. R Iiro Pakarinen $725,000 with arb. rights 14gp, 2-2-4, 2.04/60 5×5 scoring. I’m not sure Peter Chiarelli will bring back all of the RW’s who are vying for those final roster spots, but Pakarinen has the confidence of the coach and that may be enough. He won’t cost a lot and may win a contract over Tyler Pitlick.
  5. LC Anton Lander $987,500 22gp, 1-3-4, 1.77/60 5×5 scoring. I think he can play in the NHL, but it’s also true this league gets faster by the hour. It’s too bad, Lander’s skill set is a nice match for Edmonton’s needs.

Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved

NHL FORWARDS (UFA DIVISION)

  1. LC David Desharnais $3.5M 18gp, 2-2-4 1.30/60 5×5 scoring. Added at the deadline, Desharnais was probably a rental all the way. His performance so far suggests he hasn’t forced Peter Chiarelli’s hand in terms of contract.
  2. L Matt Hendricks $1.85M 42gp, 4-3-7 1.11/60 5×5 scoring. Noble warrior is reaching the end of his time with the Oilers, it will be interesting to see if another team gives him a shot in the fall. Hasn’t played any of the first three playoff games.
  3. R Tyler Pitlick $725,000 31gp, 8-3-11 2.22/60 5×5 scoring. He posted a strong first half but also ran some good shooting luck. He has reached free agency and a team like the Golden Knights may be interested (scoring is going to be scarce in the expansion draft) because of those eight goals. I suspect there is some interest in having him back, but money’s too tight to mention in his general area of the roster.

NHL DEFENSEMEN (RFA DIVISION)

  1. LD Griffin Reinhart $3,213,333 (including bonuses) $863,333 (base salary) has not played in the NHL this season. Entered training camp with a good chance at a job, and played so well the Oilers signed Kris Russell. Spent the entire season in the AHL and is now up as the No. 8 defender. Open question about where he lands, as Vegas has a GM who likes big WHL defenders. If he’s back this fall, it will be without the bonus on his contract and he will be applying for the 7D job (I expect).

NHL DEFENSEMEN (UFA DIVISION)

  1. LD Kris Russell $3.1M 68gp, 1-12-13. I expect his stock has risen since last summer (he was a late signing, October 7) and will be looking for a long-term deal. Edmonton may be interested, but it also won’t take long for the club to get priced out of the market. We might see the Oilers do the same thing this summer with 2RHD: Wait until the market cools and see how September money spends.
  2. RD Eric Gryba $950,000 40gp,2-4-6. I can see him returning, but there are things that will need to break right. If Vegas grabs Reinhart in the expansion draft, Edmonton’s interest may increase. If Gryba can’t find a better offer than the one he signed this year,we could see him here for a third season.

Photo by Mark Williams, all rights reserved

MINOR LEAGUERS (A QUICK GLANCE)

  1. C Henrik Samuelsson, RFA. Oilers traded for him and didn’t seem to like his preparedness/conditioning. That’s kind of a big deal in the organization, so I’m going to say it is unlikely we see him in the fall. Unless he’s lifts tractors all summer.
  2. L Joey Laleggia, RFA. I think he forced their hand here, the guy is superfreak LW with a goal every two games since the turn of the year. I am not saying he is an NHL lock, but he has an NHL chance. I can count a dozen signed guys who you can’t say that about right now.
  3. LC Bogdan Yakimov, RFA. I can see him back this fall, but what if he bolts again? Yakimov is an intriguing talent, but he didn’t exactly set the Russian woods on fire. I think they pass.
  4. LD Dillon Simpson, RFA. He has arb rights, but should be an easy signing. Simpson may be one of the few veterans in Bakersfield this fall and I do think he gets a new deal.
  5. LC Jere Sallinen, RFA. He simply didn’t bring enough offense.
  6. G Jonas Gustavsson, UFA. Unfair to judge him in the very small sample size of his NHL games, but that’s the gig.
  7. RC Zach Pochiro, RFA. Interesting because he is a RHC, but I think the Oilers will prefer to have an extra slot on the 50-man. He showed well in his time with the organization.
  8. G Eetu Laurikainen, RFA. Haven’t heard much about him much of the winter. Don’t believe he will be back.
  9. LD David Musil, RFA. He was loaned to the Arizona organization and one expects his agent has been shopping him to all 30 teams since. He has value and could find a good landing spot, but his skills are duplicated many times in the Oilers organization.
  10. R Justin Fontaine, UFA. The Oilers may try to keep him for another year in the Taylor Beck role. He’s a pretty solid insurance policy against struggling and injured wingers. I’ll guess the Oilers decide to pass on signing him this summer.
  11. LD Jordan Oesterle, UFA. I think he’s too good to sign a two-way deal, and the Oilers have too many lefties rated above him. It’s crappy, but he’s a guy you wish the best of luck and cheer for if he makes it.
  12. LD Mark Fraser, UFA. Like Fontaine, I think Fraser could return as a mentor/insurance. I’ll guess he ends up elsewhere for our purposes today.

PROJECTED 50-MAN

117 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 vote
Article Rating
117 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
oilersfan

Giraffes were created when Stan Weir gave a horse an uppercut

rickithebear

I see steve$ responded to Draisatl at 8M

When you look back thru past few years:
2yrs before Post ELC contract
with Age last year of ELC.
Gaudreau 142P .89 PPG (22) 6 @ 6.75M
Forsberg 127P .77 PPG (21) 6 @ 6M
Monohan 125P .77PPG (21) 7 @ 6.375M
Hubredeau 113P .73 PPG (21) 6 @ 5.9M
Barkov 95P .69 PPG (20) 6 @ 5.9M

We see increments of .06PPG being worth .375M over 6 years.
we see Added UFA years being .375M per over the length of contract.

Draisatl 128P .83PPG (21)
we see Draisatl .06 short of Gaudreau
6 @ 6.375M
we see Draisatl .06 Ahead of Monohan
7 @ 6.750
If we want that 8th season we have to add .375
8 @ 7.125M

rickithebear

Woodguy v2.0: There is no question that the lack of goals vis a vi the corsi can just be variance.

That said, the elite scoring players’ GF% outperform their CF% because they are elite scoring players.

You can look at the CF and think “oh, its fine they’ll score”

or you can look at the CF and think “why isn’t the puck going in at all with all those corsis?”

View this series so far my answer is “variance” and “Maroon isn’t burying the ones he scored all year”

Is Maroon’s SH% variance or is it influenced by injury?Dunno, but in the words of one of my Gords “That boy ain’t right”

As for the “focus on Defence” , the wingers are the least players in team defence and 67 is probably a better defensive player than 19 given their histories.36 gets around the ice better so if he’s positionaly sound, he’ll probably be better than 19 too.

HD penetration; Targeting; Career Shooting %

What 5-6 years ago on Eberle’s sustainability.

See what working on your HD data base does for your thinking!

At least you understand why I thought you were smart but sooooo silly those years ago!

JD_Wry

I see that Bill Scott slid down my chimney last night and left me a big ol’ Flames egg!

JD_Wry

HAPPY BALLS DAY EVERYONE!

Woodguy v2.0

Georges: Vlasic and Braun are not 5.93 GA60 players, whatever CMD managed to do in the 50 minutes he played against them. In the playoffs last year, Vlasic’s GA60 was 1.35 in 444 5v5 minutes and Braun’s GA60 was 1.65 in 435 minutes. San Jose hasn’t forgotten how to play their style of playoff hockey.

Let’s say CMD can still score at around a 3 GF60 pace against these two. This is off of his 3.53 GF60 pace in the regular season but still high, and quite high, in my opinion, when considering he’s matched against Vlasic. Let’s also consider the possibility that his GF60 in the playoffs against Vlasic is 2 instead of 3.

Goal scoring follows a Poisson distribution, I believe.

Let’s calculate the probability of observing 0 goals from CMD in a 30 minute stretch (so we have to take half the GF60 rate as our mean for the Poisson).

GF60 = 3
P(GF=0) = 0.22

GF60 = 2
P(GF=0) = 0.37

So, the odds are against observing 0 goals in both rate scenarios. If we go with the lower GF60 number, the odds are 2-to-1 against. Not great but also not ridiculous.

But, as you’ve noted before, goals in small samples are an unreliable measure of performance.

If we look at how that line is doing on Corsi, we see this:

Reg. Season 5v5 CF60, CA60, CF%

CMD 61, 55, 53
Drai 59, 56, 51
Rig 62, 54, 53

Playoffs 5v5 CF60, CA60, CF%

CMD 66, 52, 56
Drai 71, 44, 62
Rig 63, 51, 55

So they’ve been playing more at the other end in the playoffs than in the regular season. They’re dominating Vlasic even though they’ve been tied or have had the lead for all but one second of the series so far. They just haven’t scored. But they haven’t been scored against either.

I don’t know about the Maroon looks hurt angle. Otherwise, I’d say we’re winning and Vlasic and the Sharks are just getting lucky. Vlasic also seems to be playing 5 fewer minutes at 5v5 than he played in the Cup run. I’m guessing because they’re saving him for the hard matchup. That forces the Sharks to play Dillon and Schlemko at 5v5 more than they’d like. That, as it turned out yesterday, is also good for us.

I’ll worry about goals when we don’t get goals that we need. Right now, it’s all about not giving up goals. We’re doing OK. So I’m patient. I think the odds with the CMD line-Vlasic matchup are in our favor. I’d stick with it unless (as TMac decided yesterday) we’re badly outmatched in the bottom 6.

There is no question that the lack of goals vis a vi the corsi can just be variance.

That said, the elite scoring players’ GF% outperform their CF% because they are elite scoring players.

You can look at the CF and think “oh, its fine they’ll score”

or you can look at the CF and think “why isn’t the puck going in at all with all those corsis?”

View this series so far my answer is “variance” and “Maroon isn’t burying the ones he scored all year”

Is Maroon’s SH% variance or is it influenced by injury? Dunno, but in the words of one of my Gords “That boy ain’t right”

As for the “focus on Defence” , the wingers are the least players in team defence and 67 is probably a better defensive player than 19 given their histories. 36 gets around the ice better so if he’s positionaly sound, he’ll probably be better than 19 too.

Johnny skid

oilersfan: Hope Cameron is enjoying his dose of flames suckiness right now

yep.

Strapping Jocks

While I relish in many of the outcomes of the other series (except Wash-TML), we still have two more wins to get against the Sharks before we declare the oilers more than a playoff dud this year.

Go Oilers!!

(Now I am off to Calgary Puck and HFBoards to drink the tears of dejected Flames fans!)

hunter1909

Soup Fascist: I feel bad for the Flames.

We all do.

Meanwhile Flames and Canucks fans can enjoy Zack Kassian’s emergence as a bona fide playoff hockey performer.

Flames losing at home after being up 4-1 proves they were a mirage team this season.

Mirage teams so far: Minnesota, Calgary, Chicago, San Jose, Columbus…

Pouzar

flyfish1168: Living in Calgary will be more tolerable today

I bet.

flyfish1168

Pouzar:
Morning made.

Living in Calgary will be more tolerable today

Pouzar

Morning made.

flyfish1168

Went to bed about 930 dejected. Woke up found out the Phlegms lost in O/T has put a smile on my face that can’t be wiped off. 🙂

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Calling NYCOIL Calling NYCOIL,

I am going to Kyoto/Tokyo next week and I am in need of some hot tips. Went on your blog but I could not find a contact email (I am really bad at interneting)

Please Help!!!

Also I read your blog and it was so helpful I need more!

bassguy

there have been many goalies that have made there name in playoffs in the nhl…and many goalies that have suffered in that role as well..we have, i think, the best goalie in ages….just happens to be with connor…lets see

bassguy

without a goiler ypu cant do anything?…listentng to gregors guy , the goalie guy he has on,he is so impressed with calms laterell movement..ii have noticed so many shots on Calm when he just gathers the shot in his tummy because he is in the right position..the guy is amazing!…stanley cup because of Calm Talbut

bassguy

Hi Guys, and happy easter weekend….i had to work and drove my mother-in law back to sask..south of lloyd today..and back..i so loved to see the phlems trash that game….i was just thinking of the key to the oil…driving for hours…its Calm Talbot…just put an L in his first name..what do you guys think??..we are going to win the cup because of calm and he will be the conn smythe winner

GMB3

Through some inside information I have, apparentl, the playoffs are Lindholms last chance to prove he shouldn’t be traded prior to the expansion draft. His source is good too, and I know he’s not lying about his source.

I had figured keeping Lindholm would be the Ducks number 1 priority heading into the expansion draft, especially at the end of last season. And I honestly still feel this way. Something about that information doesn’t make sense to me, but I know that he wouldn’t be saying this without his source telling him, he was just as surprised as I was.

N64

oilersfan: Kent Wilson is saying on Twitter that Calgary had 37 scoring chances tonight

Was he the guy who counted first period hits for the Sharks yesterday? 😉

JD_Wry

oilersfan: has a team ever had 5 more scoring chances than shots on net?

Well if a point-blank two on zero winds up with a missed shot, then that’s a scoring chance but not a SOG.

Please stop making me defend the fLames.

oilersfan

Kent Wilson is saying on Twitter that Calgary had 37 scoring chances tonight. I am not on Twitter but could somebody who is challenge him on that? They only had 32 shots on net. In the history of hockey has a team ever had 5 more scoring chances than shots on net?

Also, for a team that allegedly dominated the ducks, they lost 5-1 when playing 5×5 so there is that narrative including actual facts to be considered when claiming it was a dominating performance but just unlucky…I believe 5×5 shots were around 27-22 for the ducks so again not really that dominant.

Good PP lately though.

Elliot was indeed Brutal that second goal may have cost him a decent second contract with the Lames

Chachi

How does a team lose when they get 5 power plays to 0 for the opposition and score on 3 of them?That can’t ever have been done before. Incredible.

JD_Wry

I wonder how many chairs Treliving broke tonight?

Home barn chairs, so I’m going to guess zero.

Soup Fascist

I feel bad for the Flames. They worked their asses off for 39 minutes taking full command of the game over the Ducks. Monahan is scoring. Bennett with a hard but clean check on Bieksa. Then to have it all undone by a terrible non-call on an obvious high stick ……

Just kidding.

Suck it Flames.

oilersfan

Well with the pseudonym that I am using, on behalf of oilers fans everywhere allow me to say this:

Suck it Calgary. Suck it long and suck it hard.

Haha

My schadenfreude boner is 14 inches right now

Hope Cameron is enjoying his dose of flames suckiness right now

The Calgary call in shows will get a million calls tonight but I wouldn’t want to be one of the sponsors with all the wrath of a million heartbroken fans swearing never to use “Pete the Plumber” with his ad on every second commercial . It will be associated with heartbreak and despair of an epic proportion for decades after this near apocalyptic collapse.

Chachi

Pescador: Assholes going to asshole

Yup, pretty much.

GMB3

Wow Chicago.. wow

Pescador

Chachi:
Oh Flambes you shit show on ice.

Assholes going to asshole

Pescador

LMHF#1:
Washington in full-on choke mode. Wow. If they manage to lose, does anyone think the GM has the guts to switch out a bunch of parts?

You mean the new incoming GM?

dangilitis

Bwaaahaha…

Corey Perry was a +5 tonight in a 5-4 win, that’s pretty impressive. Weren’t the Ducks missing their top 2 D-men tonight, on top of the gratuitous penalty calls in Calgary’s favour?

Younger Oil

Bad thing is, this is less time for the Flames to beat the Ducks up most likely.

On the bright side, fuck the Flames.

Chachi

Oh Flambes you shit show on ice.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Bahahahahahahahah

Chachi

JDI Хоккей:
Chachi,

Only if they promise the position to Conan O’Brien first.

Yes indeed.

theDjdj

Hawks to win 4 in a row to advance. Backs flush against the wall now

JD_Wry

Shit ca go

Shit ca go

That toddlin’ town.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

JDI Хоккей,

This gets a full on belly laugh hahaha

Oh and Chicago completes the collapse. Hawks on the ropes!

JD_Wry

Chachi,

Only if they promise the position to Conan O’Brien first.

Chachi

Do the Flames have the option to replace Gulutzan with Jay Leno before overtime starts?

JD_Wry

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
Wow some epic bed-crapping going on tonight

I politely request that you keep the pictures from my hacked smart TV to yourself.

Younger Oil

Flames get 5 Powerplays to the Ducks 0, get three PP goals, and Anaheim still gets the game to OT.

Hilarious.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Wow some epic bed-crapping going on tonight

Centre of attention

Flames, what are you doing? It was 4 to 1?

Chachi

JDI Хоккей:
Well fuck a Duck.

The league is literally trying to give them this game and they are fucking it up.

Marc

Here come the Flames!

JD_Wry

Well fuck a Duck.

Centre of attention

JDI Хоккей: And I’m reasonably certain that Benning doesn’t know what Skype is.

or what if he does know and asks to do the interview over skype?

Ralph: “You know what I’ll just fly to Vancouver and we can do this in person how about that? Something about face to face interaction just makes me more comfortable is all…”

Chachi

JDI Хоккей: And I’m reasonably certain that Benning doesn’t know what Skype is.

LOL

Chachi

Centre of attention:
Chachi,

he would be good for the Goldobin’s and the Baetschi’s of the world. Jmo.

Yes he can teach them the 0 man forecheck that made him “successful” in Switzerland and motivate them in 3 languages. It is a no-brainer to hire him.

JD_Wry

Chachi: It is the perfect fit.

And I’m reasonably certain that Benning doesn’t know what Skype is.