RE 16-17 LEON DRAISAITL: NO SURPRISES

by Lowetide

We entered this season discussing Leon Draisaitl as a center who would need to push the river in order to have success. We end the regular season talking about an impact season by the big man playing on right wing with Connor McDavid. It was a dream season with a nightmare outcome. The point total is fantastic, and the cap sum is going to be equally spectacular. No Surprises.

LEON DRAISAITL 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.05 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 51 NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.67 (2nd among regular forwards, No. 10 NHL)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.3
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 0.5
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 52.70
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 4.8
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 172 shots/16.9%
  • Boxcars: 82, 29-48-77 (No. 8 NHL)
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 75, 15-25-40 (0.53)
  • Actual 16-17: 82, 29-48-77 (0.94)
  • Source
  1. Haha. God. GREAT RE! GIVE up! My RE was based on Leon playing center without Taylor Hall.
  2. Whew. He shoved that prediction straight up your rectum! As I mentioned before the season, I thought he was going to play center. Potential linemates included Jesse Puljujarvi, Patrick Maroon and Benoit Pouliot (I thought Lucic and maybe Eberle would line up with 97).
  3. Either way, that’s a major gap. You bet. I think the RE is going to be a little vulnerable in the coming seasons because reasonable depends on whether or not you play with Connor McDavid.
  4. How much does 97 help Leon? At 5×5, Leon scored 2.23/60 alongside Connor McDavid during the regular season. He is 1.79/60 at 5×5 without McDavid and that’s a good not great number, and his 2.05/60 is solid and everyone should be happy with his season.
  5. Can Leon center a line on his own? I think he could, and would probably be successful. Increasingly, I think Leon is going to be McDavid’s winger.
  6. McDavid to Draisaitl? Yes.
  7. Is that a good idea? I think it would have been a good idea to avoid it for this season.
  8. Why? Leon’s new contract is going to be a monster.
  9. I thought we agreed he was going to get the Barkov deal? Barkov’s deal has a $5.9M cap hit for six seasons. I think it’s going to take $6.5M to get it done with Leon, but we’ll see.
  10. Why? Leon’s season has better boxcars and he finished in the top 10 scorers, things like that. My guess is the contract is going to be more dear than Barkov’s. Maybe $6.2M but it’s going to be a big one.
  11. Is Leon a lot better with McDavid than Eberle? Offensively (5×5), Leon ran 2.23/60 with McDavid and Eberle was 2.22/60. There is no difference at all in terms of offensive production.
  12. Then why Leon? Interesting question. I think it has to do with chem, and probably wanting McDavid to have some size on the wing, plus McDavid scores well with Leon alongside. Maybe it’s the faceoffs. 🙂
  13. Is McDavid better with Leon and Eberle? Again at 5×5, 97 was 3.04/60 scoring this season with Leon on his line. McDavid was 2.08/60. So there is a spike in performance by McDavid when he is with Leon, and we are talking 670 (Leon) and 404  (Eberle) minutes at 5×5 during 2016-17.
  14. Anything else? Yes. I think Peter Chiarelli has been betting the McDavid cluster since he got here and that means Leon, Nurse, Puljujarvi and the rest. From 2013-2016 drafts and college free agents/junior free agents signed by PC, that’s the cluster. Makes sense when you factor in the expansion draft, and it also means Eberle (like Hall) may not be here for the long haul. Mostly cap related and impacts Nuge and others, but that may be a factor here.
  15. Who goes? Well, Jordan Eberle has two more years to go on his contract, so that’s a pressure point. Nuge and Sekera are 2021 free agents, Larsson too. I think PC will try to offload Mark Fayne and Benoit Pouliot this summer, thus pushing a trade to (at the earliest) the deadline 2018.
  16. How has Leon performed in the playoffs? He was central to the team’s success in Games 5 and 6, drove the Sharks crazy. He is a unique combination of speed, strength and skill, even though it’s uncertain his man strength has arrived. There is an air of Paul Bunyan about him already.
  17. Who are his comparables? Another strong list, Draisaitl is in good company. The hockey-reference index sussed out Nuge, Jamie Benn, Rick Nash, David Pastrnak.
  18. Can the Oilers win a Stanley Cup with Draisaitl in a prominent role? Yes, I think so. His 2016-17 season was fantastic and he remains a young man learning the league. San Jose couldn’t contain him in their two biggest games this season. He’s a bear on skates.
  19. Name the Chiarelli foundation cluster, the guys who will be here for a decade. Well, 10 years is a long time so the list won’t be long. If we say five years, then McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, Kassian, Puljujarvi, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, probably Talbot but you never know with goalies.
  20. What about Nuge? I hope they keep him, this series against SJS shows how valuable RNH can be to this team. Oilers don’t have a suitable replacement (there is no Sean Couturier coming up) so it will poke a hole in what may be a handsome depth chart at center.
  21. Last spring, you said the organization should have traded Draisaitl instead of Hall. You’re like the Gretzky of wrong.  I said (quoting) “believe that would have been the better way, dealing Leon and Darnell and a pick in order to get a complete defender. The Oilers held on to the McDavid cluster, and that is textbook in team building. In this case, it is my opinion that the textbook is wrong.”
  22. GRETZKY OF WRONG! Beginning this fall, Leon will probably make more than Hall does now. I agree having him under control for McDavid’s second contract is wise, but remain uncertain if Draisaitl can push the river. Edmonton is going to pay full price before knowing if the big man can drive a line all by his lonesome. In regard to Nurse, we will talk about it in his RE, but that’s another contract to worry over.
  23. So you think PC made a mistake then? He bet the McDavid cluster and that is the play. Going my route you get Taylor Hall until 2020 summer, Draisaitl’s contract could go through 2025. It is hard to argue the extra five years during McDavid’s run in Edmonton.
  24. So Chiarelli was right? Draisaitl ended up top  10 in scoring, it is hard to argue against that kind of success. The one argument I will make, and I understand it is futile, is that the Oilers are going to sign Leon to a contract worth (possibly) $56 million without knowing if he can drive a successful tough minutes line alone. There is danger here, although it won’t be a popular thing to bring up at contract time.
  25. Why this song? Radiohead songs often mean different things to different people, so I’m not going to get too heavy into the actual lyrics. I chose this song because Leon has surprised us in several areas. In his rookie season, he was unready. In his second season, he didn’t make the NHL team, but when he arrived it was instant success (with Taylor Hall). For the 2016-17 season, I bet on him playing center and he was on the wing (although taking lots of faceoffs). No one thought he would finish top 10 in NHL scoring, at least no one I know.
  26. Is Leon part of the McDavid cluster? Inner circle, along with Darnell Nurse.
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Justthestatsman

spoiler: Would be great if all the pro-Policy types were to confront the government on the policy that leads to this phenomenon, but when they see that doing so cuts into more Policy, that’s the one policy that will never change. Despite the fact the policy behind inflation is the primary source of income disparity, and particularly screws over the poor and anyone on a fixed income, like orphans, widows, retirees, disables, etc.

But hey it’s more important the government have policies that allow it to spend willy-nilly and so we have $9 Big Macs that were $5 and will be $13.And the poor, the elderly, the orphaned, the disabled can go suck an egg… or get on a government program funded to fix the problems of the other government program by doling out welfare, which means higher taxes, thus further impoverishing people beyond the effects of inflation.

Is it any wonder the State doesn’t include Economics in it’s State Education?

No wonder at all. I’d suggest Home Education.

StixMalone

Jumbo Joe, Seabrook? Have you guys lost your mind? Why would you even consider taking them? These guys are done and it’s time to set your sights higher. This is the McDavid era. We need speed and accurate finishers. Stop feeling sorry for these guys and look at getting the next generation of those “type” of players. They are out there just think outside of the box. Kinda like Chia did with Larsson and Maroon and Cags and Benning (maybe Foo) ………….

snfu

hunter1909:
Hunter1909’s Playoff Death March Update:

Death March would like to thank the following players who have predicted less than 4 Oilers playoff wins. They are:

3 Wins – Ashley, Rich M, SNFU, North of 51, Russ, Edmonton Fan

Happy to be wrong!
4-2 the oil take the sucks!

Scungilli Slushy

The only raises in the NHL in involve a cap increase. What a guy gets a paid now has only to do with where the cap is. It isn’t a normal business model because it’s a closed economy.

The future starts when these contracts start getting signed. Connor and Leon are the least risky in terms of value, but it still matters especially if Connor wants top dollar, which I think he might not because he wants to win more than anything and money will be the least of his worries.

There is incentive to want to be on the McDavid Oilers – the best chance at career glory there is in the league pretty much. If anybody values money more than that I’d trade them because selfish, it’s not like they aren’t being paid Uuge money either way. Team first, and every 500k off improves another roster spot.

Side

Professor Q: I guess. Like Werenski coming back in; Tortorella was actually pissed that he came back in because it was actually hindering his play and eventually lost them the series, or contributed heavily to it.

Odd that he didn’t stop him, though. Or that more coaches don’t recognise that injured players are actually more of a hinderance to your team than a benefit. Plus in the process they’re making it worse.

No matter how “tough” you think they are, they’re still being idiots to the highest degree.

Seems like possibly either a shyte show in San Jose or whatever. Or overexaggeration to excuse their loss to Edmonton or some other reason?

Hertl a broken foot for a month. Thronton a torn MCL and ACL and a “floating knee” for a month. Marleau with a broken hand for a month.

Maybe lots and lots of painkillers?

Dull the pain until you can’t physically move anymore after all of your ligaments have snapped.

Ducey

Professor Q: I guess. Like Werenski coming back in; Tortorella was actually pissed that he came back in because it was actually hindering his play and eventually lost them the series, or contributed heavily to it.

Odd that he didn’t stop him, though. Or that more coaches don’t recognise that injured players are actually more of a hinderance to your team than a benefit. Plus in the process they’re making it worse.

No matter how “tough” you think they are, they’re still being idiots to the highest degree.

Seems like possibly either a shyte show in San Jose or whatever. Or overexaggeration to excuse their loss to Edmonton or some other reason?

Hertl a broken foot for a month. Thronton a torn MCL and ACL and a “floating knee” for a month. Marleau with a broken hand for a month.

I think they are just coming clean, like most teams do after a series loss.

I would not be surprised to find out that guys like Kassian, Maroon and Benning are dinged up. Kassian was a lot less rambunctious as the series went on. Maybe that was the reffing, but I would not be surprised if he is nursing a sore shoulder.

Professor Q

Jethro Tull: Medical staff can only advise, not sanction.Supreme executive power is derived from a mandate from Doug Wilson.He says, “Joe, you good to go?” and Joe says “sure.” Medical staff says “I would highly recommend you do not play.”Who wins and who should win?

I guess. Like Werenski coming back in; Tortorella was actually pissed that he came back in because it was actually hindering his play and eventually lost them the series, or contributed heavily to it.

Odd that he didn’t stop him, though. Or that more coaches don’t recognise that injured players are actually more of a hinderance to your team than a benefit. Plus in the process they’re making it worse.

No matter how “tough” you think they are, they’re still being idiots to the highest degree.

Seems like possibly either a shyte show in San Jose or whatever. Or overexaggeration to excuse their loss to Edmonton or some other reason?

Hertl a broken foot for a month. Thronton a torn MCL and ACL and a “floating knee” for a month. Marleau with a broken hand for a month.

106 and 106

NSmitty,

Your injury was really severe. I hope you recover well.

Jumbo can’t have what you have; he needs his knee to push off and looking at some footage he was using lots of power for his stride.

The devil is in the wording. “Torn?” Yes. How badly torn is the real question.

We only know half. Super impressive though and I love the player.

Also would be interesting what a “hairline” fracture on Karlsson’s foot means – these guys play through hell.

Strapping Jocks

Has anyone heard of any college players signing with the NHL today?

Just some Foo for thought….

Spooky Lynx

druds1:
NSmitty,

Yeah our team will just rock with a 37 year old crippled first ballot Hall Of Famer making anywhere between the veteran minimum (which was $575K in 16/17 according to puckreport.com) and 5 million playing as 2C or 3C or PP or on the wing….wow

I had to fix that for ya.

By the way, I don’t know if Thornton is even eligible to get the vet min. Could someone with a better grasp of the cap confirm or deny?

dustrock

pocession charge: Man, even with half retained that is one ugly deal on the back half.

Yeah, if/when he falls off a cliff. I dunno man, Chicago might be hurtin pretty bad this offseason.

Material Elvis

dustrock:
Just spitballing here on Chicago’s problems.

We had previously speculated about Chiarelli wanting to grab someone like Seabrook.

He has a $6.75m cap hit until 2023-24.Would you take him if Chicago retained half and took Fayne?

Man, even with half retained that is one ugly deal on the back half.

dustrock

Just spitballing here on Chicago’s problems.

We had previously speculated about Chiarelli wanting to grab someone like Seabrook.

He has a $6.75m cap hit until 2023-24. Would you take him if Chicago retained half and took Fayne?

RPG

wheatnoil,

That’s some first class spam, thanks for sharing this.

judgedrude

wheatnoil:
****** SPAM ALERT ******
Only tangentially related to this thread, I wrote a thing about Nuge and how great he was in first round, despite the lack of a point.

http://www.theoilersrig.com/2017/04/nugent-hopkins-playoff-hero/

****** END SPAM ******

This is awesome. Somebody should tweet it out to the Golden Nugge for encouragement (as well as block the website from any IP address in California).

druds1

NSmitty,

Yeah our team will just rock with a 37 year old crippled guy making 5 million playing as 2C or 3C….wow

Yegfoundation

Bag of Pucks: I’m curious as to why you both think D is such a problem? Team posted 2 shutouts against San Jose and nearly a third.

Glaring organizational need is scoring Ws imo.

Particularly given the organizational depth at D that’s on its way (Nurse and Benning should be 2nd pairing contenders next season and they have Bear, Jones, Paigan, Reinhart, etc. riding the bus).

Good questions, thanks for making me thinking deeper about my suggestions.

To expand my post, in my opinion PC should consider trading prospects (regardless of the position) for proven performers, as this year’s Oilers team is showing me that they’re ready to win now. As an example, I’m not comfortable counting on Puljarvi (SP?) as a scoring winger for next year. Likewise, i’m not comfortable counting on any of Benning, Bear, Jones, Paigan, Reinhart for 2nd Paring RHD next year.

As per LMHF#1 original post, this team is showing us they’re close to a SCF team, and PC should look to acquire the proven performers that will fill the roster where required. If you and I put together our top 8 list of SCF teams for the 2017/2018 season, the Oilers have to be on that list, correct? And if they’re on that list, then i don’t count on rookies to put me over the top, i look to add veterans.

spoiler

böök¡je: Goddammit, it’s whippersnappers like you who just roll over and accept this crap that results in a damn burger meal costing $9 at McDonalds. A big mac and fries at McDonald’s should be no more than $5.LT knows it and I know it, as does anyone over 45 on this blog.And if people like you would stop paying $9 for it, it would be $5! Whippersnappers!

Would be great if all the pro-Policy types were to confront the government on the policy that leads to this phenomenon, but when they see that doing so cuts into more Policy, that’s the one policy that will never change. Despite the fact the policy behind inflation is the primary source of income disparity, and particularly screws over the poor and anyone on a fixed income, like orphans, widows, retirees, disables, etc.

But hey it’s more important the government have policies that allow it to spend willy-nilly and so we have $9 Big Macs that were $5 and will be $13. And the poor, the elderly, the orphaned, the disabled can go suck an egg… or get on a government program funded to fix the problems of the other government program by doling out welfare, which means higher taxes, thus further impoverishing people beyond the effects of inflation.

Is it any wonder the State doesn’t include Economics in it’s State Education?

Melvis

böök¡je,

A couple of arthritic thumbs up. There was a time…Big Mac 65 cents. Two bucks bought 4 8oz draughts. Ten bucks a night out with a date.

Four man Rock n roll band sharing big house doing 4 one nighters and a couple of weeks worth of club dates. $3600/month. That’s a household income of $21,600/month in contemporary shekels.

I’m not going anywhere near something called “good old days”. There were good days and bad days, and many in-between days….but one could buy college tuition and a very nice life doing nothing more than playing drums 16 nights a month.

Spooky Lynx

Profit: Edmonton… third line for next year and top PP? Toronto (are they close enough?) Columbus (will they be able to put it together)? If he just wants a cup and not a few extra bucks he’ll have a ton of interest, his legs are giving out but his passing remains sublime.
I actually think Edmonton could offer him a pretty attractive deal. Keep Drai on the McD wing for one more year, put Joe in 3C, give him some sweet PP minutes with McD to keep his points up… But I read in the SJ media that he was asking for a 3 year deal, which is a tough ask.

Hear, hear!

Spooky Lynx

Ducey,

The cold Edmonton winters could help reduce the swelling in his knee during rehab, a successful season, and a long playoff run 😉

Profit

I think Joe came back because he knew he wasn’t going to be playing for 2 months. It was a tell. Given that him and I are almost identical in age, I can sure relate when it comes to the feeling that this might be one of the last chances to make a difference on the ice. He wouldn’t want to be watching on TV. I remember when he was drafted and a little bit of me will die when he retires.

If I were him, I’d sign a cheapy deal with a Cup contender for next year and just go full Ray Bourque in his attempt for a cup.

Edmonton… third line for next year and top PP? Toronto (are they close enough?) Columbus (will they be able to put it together)? If he just wants a cup and not a few extra bucks he’ll have a ton of interest, his legs are giving out but his passing remains sublime.

I actually think Edmonton could offer him a pretty attractive deal. Keep Drai on the McD wing for one more year, put Joe in 3C, give him some sweet PP minutes with McD to keep his points up… But I read in the SJ media that he was asking for a 3 year deal, which is a tough ask.

He needs to choose wisely or else he’ll end up Iginla’d.

And I have 6 wins in the Hunter Playoff Death March (thanks for the recap Hunter). Called losing in 6 to ANA, however with the injuries, here’s hoping I’m extremely wrong.

Spooky Lynx

106 and 106,

To be honest, I haven’t seen anything regarding the grade of the injury so it very well could be a grade 1 sprain, but it seems to me that the word “torn” isn’t thrown around lightly when talking about knee injuries. In my experience “sprained” is more used for 1/2, “torn” is attributed to grade 3’s. Though this is all anecdotal, I could be wrong.

My injury was actually a bit worse than Joe’s, so I could be way out to lunch on his severity. I suffered what is known as the “Unhappy Triad” and let me tell you, they didn’t give it that name for nothin!

My MRI showed a fully torn (grade 3) ACL tear, a partially torn MCL (grade 2), and partially torn lateral meniscus (grade 2) to complete the Unhappy Triad. I also had a grade 1 medial meniscus tear and a small fracture in the ball joint of my femur.

Rehab’s been slow for me and it’s not done yet (injury was 3 years ago) but I don’t have the 24/7 access to the best trainers and facilities in the world like an NHLer would. Isn’t Rogers supposed to be a state of the art training facility? What better place to rehab than that!?

spoiler

Admiral Ackbar: I’d like to point out that $6mil 4 years ago is worth more now. Time value of money, inflation (larger cap) would suggest that Leon will be getting a ballpark Taylor Hall deal

lol… I know what you’re trying to say but man… you’re scoring some “Steve Smith” goals. I don’t think “more” means what you think it means. Or maybe it’s “worth”..

Woogie63

Total scoring production , 2016-17, Centres, 2nd Round Play-off teams

Team – top 2 centre in scoring 2/17 = 2 within the top 17 scoring for centres

Pitts -2/7
Washington -2/20
Anaheim 2/22
NYR 2/48
Edmonton 2/60
Nashville 2/61
St. Louis – 2/75
Sens 2/83

spoiler

I said before Game 6 and I will say it again… we may have seen Joe Thornton’s last game.

Obviously his heart has the desire. But does his body? Does his family? Those questions will be answered down the road, but it is by no means a lock he returns.

böök¡je

Admiral Ackbar:
Lowetide,

I’d like to point out that $6mil 4 years ago is worth more now. Time value of money, inflation (larger cap) would suggest that Leon will be getting a ballpark Taylor Hall deal. In my opinion, given the (small amount of) playoff success and his ability to play C, he’s more valuable than Taylor Hall.

Goddammit, it’s whippersnappers like you who just roll over and accept this crap that results in a damn burger meal costing $9 at McDonalds. A big mac and fries at McDonald’s should be no more than $5. LT knows it and I know it, as does anyone over 45 on this blog. And if people like you would stop paying $9 for it, it would be $5! Whippersnappers!

Ducey

NSmitty:

Seems like a perfect fit to me.

He would be great. But,

wasn’t TMac involved in taking away the C and all that bs?

Maybe that was all on the GM Wilson, but it could be a reason Joe would not want to come here (that and he apparently did not want to move from California).

Ducey

Yegfoundation: Great post, and interesting question.Based on this years playoff results, i tend to agree with you that PC should consider trading Puljajarvi for a Dman to play with Sekera, as the RHD appears to be the higher team need and more difficult asset to acquire.Puljajarvi make take 5 years to develop into a reliable 2nd line winger, if we can package him for a ready RHD to play second pairing that may be what’s required to get this team to the SCF next year.

Don’t agree. That is way too much to pay for a second pairing RHD.

Good teams don’t trade away their young assets in a Cap world. By trading JP you get rid of really the only forward prospect ready to take a step forward to the NHL next year.

Lots of people wanted to trade Leon and Nurse over the last few years for a quick fix. How would that have looked now?

This time last year the Oilers had zero RHD in their pro system. Now they have Larsson, Benning, Bear, and Mantha all signed for next year.

If they can add another college UFA, and sign a stopgap UFA (like Russell) for another year, and keep ol’ Eric Gryba in a spare drawer, they will be fine. Mantha or Bear might be ready by mid season. Benning might have another gear. If not, trade for a some help at next years deadline for a playoff run. By that point the Oilers will have a lot better idea of what they have in JP.

106 and 106

NSmitty,

When you say the ‘same’ injury, are you talking about the same grade (1/2/3) in each ligament (ACL/MCL) that Thornton had?

His rehab will tell us a little more based on operation/length of injury, but it’s all speculation as to what was really injured and to what extent, unless it’s written on the webs where i missed it.

Melvis

I’m just riffing here. There are plenty of well versed dudes and dudettes (I’m assuming) in the house – in fancies, lore, eye test and the rest of it. In vocation, vacation, and avocation. Robert Frost notwithstanding.

Adding anything to the shoeboxes full of trading cards and fantasies from one’s youth seems somewhat redundant to me. Frankly, I’m more akin to Fran Lebowitz.

So in Eight Men Out. Were the umps ever mentioned? Like they didn’t have a clue? Just wondering.

“There is no such thing as inner peace. There is only nervousness or death. Any attempt to prove otherwise constitutes unacceptable behavior.”

Spooky Lynx

A thought occurred to me today after hearing about Jumbo Joe battling through a torn ACL and MCL (btw, I’ve gone through pretty nearly the exact same injury and I can’t wrap my mind around how he was able to play, and not just play, but play WELL).

He’s a UFA this offseason if I’m not mistaken. If you’re Peter Chiarelli why wouldn’t you throw him a bone and see if you can cash on the lottery ticket? Maybe a one-year “prove it” deal off the back of his recovery or a two-year deal as a show of good faith.

Cons:
-That’s a tricky injury to come back from at any age, let alone the ripe old age of 37.
-Even if he is able to make it back, what is he going to look like on the ice? He’ll probably lose some speed and agility, and he wasn’t the quickest man on the mountain this season.

Pros:
-HE PLAYED THROUGH A 6 GAME PLAYOFF SERIES SHORT TWO LIGAMENTS IN HIS KNEE!!!
(What? I mean, what?)
-As I had mentioned earlier, he actually played WELL all series long. He was still very effective with his injury. This is a great hockey player right here.
-A knee injury doesn’t take away size or smarts. He proved in the playoffs that his board-work and puck-skill will not be affected.
-He’s closer to the end of his career than he is to the beginning. I’m sure he can see the writing on the wall: he’s only got a few more cracks at the Cup. If you were to ask me which team has the greatest chance to win a Stanley Cup in the next 3 years, the Edmonton Oilers would be my pick every day of the week. It may be bad ju-ju to say this, but it almost feels like a sure thing to me. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps, perhaps he might be inclined to take a bit of a shave (of the pocketbook nature, certainly not the face) in order to increase his chances of breaking the goose egg in the rings column.

Edit:
Even in his late-career seasons he has the toolbox to be an effective forward in the NHL. His 1C days may be behind him, but I think he would be a beyond perfect fit on the 2nd or 3rd line for the Oilers next season.

Drai would be able to stay on McDaddys starboard side. RNH and Jumbo could centre our 2a and 2b lines. Hell, Jumbo could move to the wing all up and down the lineup. Edmonton has speed on the wings to make up for his slow feet.

Seems like a perfect fit to me.

Material Elvis

I love Brent Burns but I think the Oilers dodged a major bullet on that contract. They would have offered him an ugly retirement deal, too.

Material Elvis

Gerta Rauss: Deboer alluded to a serious injury in his post game presser

ACL is big time though..wow

Assuming surgery and Joe still wants to play, that’s 4-6 months recovery, no..?

If they are doing a complete reconstruction, make that 9 months recovery.

106 and 106

I know it’s a singular moment, but in the headline photo, is he just testing ‘grip strength’ on the bench? Any player is just going to squeeze the life outta ya if your going to pull ’em.

Wonder if they have x-rays in the building at NHL rinks? And how many get taken in the intermissions.

For the MCL, it must be:
Grade 1 (ligament stretched)
Grade 2 (partial torn, can stand, but probably instability)
not Grade 3 (full tear)

For the ACL, Grade 1 (fibers torn but knee will still function)
Grade 2 (lose functionality).

No one tells the truth during post-season, it could be grade 1 in both knees. Really wish they’d release more info on injuries.

Bag of Pucks

Yegfoundation: Great post, and interesting question.Based on this years playoff results, i tend to agree with you that PC should consider trading Puljajarvi for a Dman to play with Sekera, as the RHD appears to be the higher team need and more difficult asset to acquire.Puljajarvi make take 5 years to develop into a reliable 2nd line winger, if we can package him for a ready RHD to play second pairing that may be what’s required to get this team to the SCF next year.

I’m curious as to why you both think D is such a problem? Team posted 2 shutouts against San Jose and nearly a third.

Glaring organizational need is scoring Ws imo.

Particularly given the organizational depth at D that’s on its way (Nurse and Benning should be 2nd pairing contenders next season and they have Bear, Jones, Paigan, Reinhart, etc. riding the bus).

Jethro Tull

leadfarmer: Why, Its not like its their job to chain Thornton to a chair.I’m sure the injury was not misdiagnosed given every injury gets an MRI nowadays and at some point if a person refuses medical advice well then its on them

If you ask the player, he’s going to say he can play. If you ask the Med staff, they’ll say he shouldn’t play. It’s all on the GM with the casting vote. If you know Joe won’t be here next year…….

Scungilli Slushy

Thornton’s whole life has been hockey. I’m sure he asked if he would be crippled, and when they said no he was not going to watch the playoffs on tv in his last chance Texaco year or two. It’s the end of the line for him and Marleau. The Sharks’ dream has been dashed. Like a brained big fish on the deck of a over-fishing trawler. They might play a year or two more, maybe in SJ, but the window is closing as the guard changes around the league.

Roughneck

leadfarmer,

I had fun with a prism that saw Jumbos injury through Vince Carter or soccer terms.
Jumbo would still be writhing on the ice in Vancouver.

The Dilbert’s are having a time with Joe and the Sharks. It may involve a disconnect with what the word “commitment” means to the various viewpoints.

Yegfoundation

LMHF#1:
Looking out ahead, you’ve got a team that currently has all of 1 glaring weakness (another top 4 RHD).

You’ve got strong assets in key positions (C, 1-2D, G).

You have to look at what is easily replaceable and what isn’t.

Locking Leon up has very few possible downsides, and simply may require you to be a little cheaper on line 4 down the road. You should be doing that anyway.

My current debate is whether you go RHD shopping with the 2017 1st and Jesse Puljujarvi in your wallet. I haven’t looked very far into this yet, but from the playoffs especially, it appears the glaring weakness on this squad is not having someone to play with Sekera. If that pair was strong+stable, the SJ series would have been over in 5 tops.

Great post, and interesting question. Based on this years playoff results, i tend to agree with you that PC should consider trading Puljajarvi for a Dman to play with Sekera, as the RHD appears to be the higher team need and more difficult asset to acquire. Puljajarvi make take 5 years to develop into a reliable 2nd line winger, if we can package him for a ready RHD to play second pairing that may be what’s required to get this team to the SCF next year.

leadfarmer

Professor Q: Those medical staff should be fired, to honest.

Why, Its not like its their job to chain Thornton to a chair. I’m sure the injury was not misdiagnosed given every injury gets an MRI nowadays and at some point if a person refuses medical advice well then its on them.

Also Its got to be partial thickness tears. Theres no way he would have enough stability with full thickness tears of the ACL and MCL. That would leave his knee dangling with his PCL and LCL. That would be crazy. Its like sleeping in your 4 post bed but 2 of the posts are missing and the 2 that are there are on the same side

leadfarmer

I admire Jumbo Joe trying to play through that injury, but was he seriously thinking he could play with that for 2 months. Thats crazy

N64

Centre of attention:
Lindholm not skating today. Was injured game 4

absolutely YUGE deal if he can’t go.

Conversely, Klefbom looks good to go according to coach. Rest day today.

Reid Wilkins‏Verified account @ReidWilkins · 43s44 seconds ago
McLellan expects Klefbom to be ready for game one.

If they BOTH had a rest day then you’ve got a word in there that doesn’t… oh I’d best get off “Steve”‘s lawn

Woodguy v2.0

russ99:
Tough minutes and soft minutes don’t exist in the playoffs, and that’s what we need to build our team for.

So many of the things this fanbase has clinged to in the last 10 years of losing such as “Oilers hockey”, three scoring lines, “pushing the river”, scoring off the rush, soft and hard minutes lines, all puck movers, etc. have little bearing on our eventual goal, which is winning in the playoffs and winning a Stanley Cup in Connor’s second contract.

In light of that, Chiarelli made the smart moves.

You might want to tell McLellan that because his post-series presser was mostly saying the opposite of your post.

Scungilli Slushy

If Chiarelli signs a very expensive deal for anyone playing on McDavid’s wing I’ll think he’s a fool. Leon is a superstar, or is he a second liner like his away from McDavid 1.75/60 says?

Subban’s RFA that was ill advised was his second RFA contract. The first one is different, there is a lot less established performance. I have mentioned before, for core players you want to control them into their 30’s firstly to avoid the first UFA contract coming at peak value when the player is 27-30 YO, and second so there are years left on a contract for a guy you want to move, so that peak value can be realized.

A sad Habs fan guy I know mentioned there is Price trade talk where he reads. He mentioned trading Galch, Pacc, and I responded as we know here, trading your young talent and best players isn’t going to fix a lack of offense.

He was surprised when I said I would trade Price and Weber. Montreal won’t win a Cup in their window IMO, and if there are teams who value those players they could restock in one summer, caveat being finding a decent goaler, and maybe a decent RHD to play behind Petry.

dustrock

Wow, had the Ducks in 7 given problems with Vatanen and Fowler, but now Lindholm maybe injured, and I`ve heard Kesler has been playing with a sore wrist.

Oilers in 7?

Gerta Rauss

RPG:
DeBoer says Thornton was playing through a torn MCL and ACL. Unreal

Deboer alluded to a serious injury in his post game presser

ACL is big time though..wow

Assuming surgery and Joe still wants to play, that’s 4-6 months recovery, no..?

rickithebear

Centre of attention: Lindholm not skating today. Was injured game 4
absolutely YUGE deal if he can’t go.

1st comp; top 15: HD SH/60; EVGA/60; PKGA/60 Dmen
cumulative last 3 seasons.
Alzner
Lindholm

rickithebear

Woogie63:
I think Driasaitl will be tied to Hopkins more than McDavid.

Nuge’s offence is coming up short of a 2C on a great team.He plays responsible, kills penalty and get the puck out of our zone, but ended up a -10 on the team.But is not adding enough points 5v5 or on the PP.Lots of positive in the Shark’s series, but zero points is a big red flag.

If Nuge 2016/17 is the Nuge of the future, Driasaitl will be our 2C.

Nug has been a PvP player since he was 19 years old.
When he faced 2nd comp for the season at 18 yrs he was .84 PPG
.84 @ 18yr was the 10th best 18yr season in the modern era. (min 40gm)

Mcdavid’s 18yr season was 1.07 PPG
5th best in modern era behind Hawerchuk; Crosby; Francis; Yzerman.

Mathews faced 2nd comp. At age 19 this year.
He was .49 GPG and .84 PPG.
.84 @ 19 is the 35th best 19 yr season of the modern era.

Mcdadid was 1.22 PPG in his 19 year season
that is the 5th best in modern era.
Behind
Gretzky 1.73
Crosby 1.52
Lemieux 1.37
Carson 1.34
Lindros 1.23

assigning a upper mid and lower rank to Comp and teammates
and
taking a STD deviation structure that provides 8 groups.
results in 1152 situatioal groups.
The goal diff (+/-) medians for the situations vary from +32 to -32

You might want to take allthe data from 07-08 to get a
Median for the EVP/60 rate in his given situation.

we know at 19 He had a messed shoulder.
13-14 20yr:
RNH 20 yr 143-14 PvP C EVPPG:
Toews .63 EVPPG +26
Thorton .60 +20
Bergeron .59 +38
Kopitar .57 +34
Little .55 +8
O’Rielly .53 -1
M. Koivu .52 Even
Fisher .51 -4
H. Sedin .46 +3
RNH .45 -12
Stepan .44 +12
Nielson .44 -11
Zajac .41 +3
Couturier .38 +1
Kesler .34 -15
Backlund .32 Even

14-15
Stepan .59 EVPPG +26
H. Sedin .59 +11
Toews .57 +30
RNH .54 -12
Kopitar .51 -2
O’ Rielly .50 -5
Bergeron .48 +2
Little .47 +8
Fisher .47 +4
Backlund .46 +4
Kadri .42 -7
Kesler .41 -5
Couturier .35 +4
Nielson .33 +8
Zajac .22 -3

15-16
Thorton .65 +25
Draisatl .58 -2
Toews .53 +16
O’Rielly .52 -16
Dubinsky .51 -16
Begeron .50 +12
Stepan .50 +5
Couturier .49 +8
Little .49 -13
Kesler .47 +5
H. Sedin .46 Even
RNH .42 -9
Backlund .41 +10
M. Koivu .41 +6
Kadri .41 -15
Pageau .39 +17
Nielson .37 +1
Zajac .30 +3

16-17
Toews .57 +7
Kadri .54 -7
Couturier .47 +12
Kesler .46 +8
M. Koivu .45 +27
Stepan .44 +19
H. Sedin .43 -27
Bergeron .42 +12
Backlund .42 +9
Kopitar .42 -10
Thorton .40 +7
O’Rielly .40 -1
RNH .40 -10
Zajac .39 -8
Fisher .35 +1
Nielson .31 -19

when we look at PvP centers for the 4 straight seasons 13-14 to 16-17

the average EVPPG production is
Toews .57 EVPPG +20/season
Bergeron .49 +16/ssn
Stepan .49 +15/ssn
o’rielly .49 -6/ssn
H. Sedin .48 -3/ssn
RNH .45 -10/ssn
Couturier .42 +6/ssn
Kesler .42 -2/ssn
Backlund .40 +7/ssn
Nielson .35 -5/ssn
Zajac .33 -1/ssn

It is better to understand pvp even production before commenting.
RNH’s flaw is FO%
He would be a better suited for 2nd comp
were he racks .85 to 1.06 PPG

Chachi

Melvis:
Chachi,

About the other loss. I’m under the impression Joanie was a wonderful woman – so you have my sincere condolences on her loss, but leaving her to rot in some trailer park south of Mason Dixon line? Hardly forgivable.

I was only in it to get close to Marion.