LOOSE CHANGE

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers are getting ready to face the Anaheim Ducks this week, and at this point I see this team winning the series (in seven games). When the playoffs started, I suggested 6-6 as a playoff record (4-2SJS, 2-4 ANA), but the team showed more depth than expected and  maybe there’s hockey in this city past May long. I still believe balance has not yet been achieved, but Peter Chiarelli’s moves since arrival have complemented Connor McDavid’s arrival and we are miles down the road from expectation. How far can this thing go? Don’t take any long trips until July.

LINES AGAINST SAN JOSE SHARKS

  • Corsica.hockey has three lines from the initial series playing enough to show up with numbers.
  • The Nuge line played 64 minutes and posted a stunning Corsi for 5×5. RNH had 17 shots, but is the only member of the line without a point. If Nuge gets 17 shots every series this spring, the goals will come.
  • The two McDavid lines are about the same, but I think we may see Maroon back on the top line during the Anaheim series. He went 5, 0-5-5 against the Ducks this season, playing 87 minutes in those games. Drake Caggiula played in four games (1-0-1) and totaled 48:43 in icetime.

PAIRINGS AGAINST THE SAN JOSE SHARKS

  • Klefbom-Larsson had a fabulous series, both men helping at both ends of the ice. Klefbom’s mobility, Larsson edge and battle helped defensively. Klefbom’s rocket shot tied Game 5 late and Larsson’s impressive pass got the scoring started in Game 6. Great Corsi, great Fenwick, I liked their game against SJS. We worry about Klefbom but early word has him ready for Game 1 against Anaheim.
  • Sekera-Russell were under 50 percent in possession and I think a lot of the trouble came from ineffective passing and lack of creativity in exits. I don’t have a cure for it. The duo normally gets by on Sekera’s guile but the Sharks seemed to be getting in the way quite a bit.
  • Nurse-Benning have had some good moments and some chaotic sorties defended, and that’s exactly what we should expect. I like Nurse’s mobility, and Benning’s too. Both men can pass and transport, both men have lapses defensively that we associate with you and inexperience. I’m a big believer in getting young players experience and this playoff series is providing it for these two men.
  • Cam Talbot has a .927SP through one series, ranking him No. 7 in the NHL. He is also No. 9 in even-strength SP.

One of the players I wonder about (David Desharnais division) for the Oilers this summer is Sam Gagner. Edmonton could use him as 4R and 1PP, and that righty shot could help keep Mark Letestu fresh. Speed would be impacted, but it’s at least worth talking about (I am leaning toward Slepyshev as being 4R for next year.

PETER CHIARELLI’S LIST

As we discussed yesterday, Peter Chiarelli’s summer is going to be a lot about cap and some about the roster. Unlike previous seasons, when the procurement could go seven or eight deep, we should see a specific, targeted summer of addition.

  • Get Connor Mcdavid signed to a long-term contract.
  • Get Leon Draisaitl signed to a long-term contract.
  • Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future.
  • Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster.
  • Find a second pairing RHD with two-way acumen.
  • Find a bottom 6F who can help the offense.
  • Find a way to cover off buried contracts (Fayne)  and stay under the cap.
  • Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline.

ROSTER PROJECTION

  • Unlike yesterday, we’ve shoehorned most of the players from a year ago onto the roster. Benoit Pouliot gets traded, Mark Fayne finds the minors (instead of buyout). I still think buying him out makes more sense, but a few mentioned it being a bad idea so we’ll keep him for now.
  • The actual cap room is probably more, I am maxing out the bonuses for Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi and Darnell Nurse.
  • I think the Oilers could get by with trading Pouliot and Fayne, to be honest. Doing those two things would turn that cap room above into $3.39M. That would allow PC to sign Kris Russell instead of Cody Franson, or even aim higher. I do like Franson, his CorsiRel ranks among the 10 best in the NHL this past season. His value is also (apparently) low coming from his Buffalo experience, he could be a value contract.
  • I suspect Peter Chiarelli is preparing to trade a big salary, and further expect it will be a player who was a member of the team on the day this GM arrived.

Our man makes it to the Czech elite league starting in the fall. Plenty of talk about Edmonton losing his rights  if Svoboda doesn’t sign, I’ve always had a difficult time understanding the rules on these Euro picks. In the past, when I thought a player was no longer part of the organization, someone from the team would say something vague like “we still have him on our reserve list” so I’m not certain he becomes a free agent this summer.

2016-17 NUMBERS AGAINST ANAHEIM

  • One of the surprises of the first round was improved secondary scoring. As you can see, the Oilers didn’t get a lot of it during their five game (3-2 Oil) season series.
  • Over 50 percent (eight of 14) of the offense funneled through the top line, we should look for some impressive boxcars from the trio. I suspect Maroon may play some or all of the series on that 1line.
  • The Nuge line was impressive during the San Jose series, but badly need to provide some offense against the Ducks. Anaheim has balanced scoring, Edmonton needs the same. I will publish Anaheim v. Oilers during the regular season in tomorrow’s GDT.
  • Cam Talbot’s SP (.902) isn’t stellar but five games is a small sample size.

Draft followers will want to read Steve Kournianos U18 recap (Volume 1). It’s a quick read but very effective in passing along the names of this year’s impact players.

The reason I picked the Oilers is that Connor McDavid plays for Edmonton. He makes a helluva difference, packs a massive wallop and I do believe he’ll enter this series with something (in his mind) to prove. I’m with all who believe that elevating one’s game for the biggest contests is folly, but when you are magnificent and playing in a big game the attention is heightened. I suspect Connor McDavid is already setting his jaw, sending out that stern look of determination, and expecting to fly. Godspeed.

That article by Stephens is a dandy and contains this quote from Randy Carlyle:

  • “I can remember the last game that we played against them here. On every defensive zone faceoff, he pulled Connor McDavid off the ice. So what was happening was Kesler’s group was not getting any offensive time and that can, at times, wear on players in the situation you’re in.”

I think the Oilers are about to enter a physical, more traditional series against the Ducks. Randy Carlyle is not an innovator per se, but does have impressive options at his disposal. One area Edmonton could really help themselves? Cobbling together a third line capable of scoring consistently. More on that side of the story in tomorrow’s GDT.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Is Jon picking the Oilers? What kind of series will we see?
  • Josh Brewster, Duck Calls. We’ll look at the Ducks as they enter their first real series.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Around the NHL, looking at Oilers, Senators and more.
  • Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report. NFL draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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GCW_69

I think LT has it right that the disposition of Fayne’s and Pouliot’s contracts will drive the summer procurement.

If they can’t find a way to unload both, then they need to go hunting value contracts. In that context, Franson becomes interesting if you can get him for 3rd pair money. The stink of Buffalo probably pushes him to a 1 yr contract. Having his shot on the second PP unit would probably be a big help to Nuge and Eberle.

If they decide they need to trade Nuge or Eberle, I suspect we see a defender coming back, so those speculating Eberle for Hamonic probably are on the something. Although, it would not surprise me to see a bigger deal where Edmonton tries to grab Strome to shore up the centre depth.

Hamonic seems to be a buy low opportunity, so maybe Ebs, Sleppy and a draft pick gets you Hamonic and Strome?

Woodguy v2.0

Bag of Pucks:
Woodguy v2.0,

Thanks for the correction on the GPs. I just grabbed it off the first hit – damn Wikipedia : )

Ha!

All good.

godot10

How does one NOT solve a problem like Kris Russell, AND make the problem materially worse?

Answer: Cody Franson

BONE207

Pescador: How did you get access to my medical file?

I come from the communist era health care system where $$$ talks

theres oil in virginia

This is a fabulous thread.

Bag of Pucks

blainer: Mr. BoP you are really saying good things today !!

Why, thank you mate.

Bag of Pucks

Woodguy v2.0,

Thanks for the correction on the GPs. I just grabbed it off the first hit – damn Wikipedia : )

Woodguy v2.0

Bag of Pucks,

He’s yet to play 80 GPs in this league. I think people sometimes forget that.
KBom is one year older and this is the season the light finally turned on for him.

Klef’s fancies have been good since he got here. We nicknamed him dreamy early on 14/15 because of what he was doing.

Klefbom put up a 51.4% CF with Schultz vs the toughs in 14/15.

This isn’t his “break out season”

This is his first healthy season on a team that has Connor McDavid.

Also,

Nurse has 115 games in the NHL.

When Klef put up those numbers with Schultz he was 21 and had 17 NHL games played before the season started.

This is Nurse’s 21 year old year, just like 14/15 was Klef’s.

I think Nurse is much better this year than last and I hope he continues along that path.

Woodguy v2.0

frjohnk:
More Dmen numbers.

EDIT: OK this got out of hand, but since I crunched all these numbers here we go.

Adam Larsson
If Larsson is paired with a Dmen who can move the puck ( which is Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse) they have very good on ice metrics for.The surprising find in the counts against is that they are very high as well.

In limited minutes Sekera and Larsson ( 71 mins) had the best D pair numbers by far.
CF%FF%SF%xGF%
56.0256.495557.04

Nurse and Larsson ( this is our future tough minutes pairing)
CF%FF%SF%xGF%
52.4252.585658.48

Klefbom and Larsson
CF%FF%SF%xGF%
49.851.3651.6650.24

Lots of shots, scoring chances, goals and goals from the slot against when Larsson is on the ice ( except with Russell) but the good thing is that more is happening in the other end ( except with Russell)

Russell
He drags everybody down when it comes to on ice metrics for…….except Klefbom.Klefbom is so good he lifts up Russell to almost average in corsi, shot,s expected goals for metrics on the Oiler D pairings!!!!!

And when we look at overall metrics Klefbom and Russell together
CF%FF%SF%xGF%
48.1250.5452.2451.53

Sekera
With Larsson fantastic
CF%FF%SF%xGF%
56.0256.495557.04

Same with Benning
CF%FF%SF%xGF%
53.4953.2953.3554.625

But of course dragged down by Russell ( should mention the two lefty thing here) so I dont mind the numbers much
CF%FF%SF%xGF%
45.4848.4848.6249.97

And I just realised we have two Matt Bennings and two Darnell Nurses so disregard some of my numbers from before.

DARNELL.NURSEMATTHEW.BENNING ( the bad pair)CF%FF%SF%xGF%45.8143.8240.844.41
DARNELL.NURSEMATTHEW.BENNING( the good pair)CF%FF%SF%xGF%54.6353.6354.258.66

Will try to update before I got to go.

Good stuff Padre.

I suggest using puckalytics to run each pair with a C to see how they affect the C.

Running the overalls includes McDavid and I would have a CF% of 50 and GF% of 55% with him.

You can get a good feel for how the Dpairs effect each C when you break it out.

Woodguy v2.0

stush18:
Woodguy v2.0,

Is Leon a replaceable NHL er?

Forgive me for asking woodguy, but have you ever explained why you like goal share so much? I’ve noticed you’ve been touting that lately, but I dunno if I’ve read a reasoning. Not that you have to explain, and you prolly have explained.

Isn’t goal share just even strength plus/minus?

Much like I did with Nurse, you need to look at WOWY to get a clearer picture.

Leon is 21 and when he played with Lucic and Pouliot in a lot of his time away from McDavid.

They were poor in goal share.

GF% w/ Lucic was 41% (PDO 966 – CF% 52.8%)
GF% w/ Pouliot was 35% (PDO 966 – CF% 48.7)

My biggest omission was not putting up the PDOs of everyone away from McDavid. Important context, Padre addressed some of that.

Why GF%?

Goals determine who wins hockey games.

CF%, FF% are used when the samples are small because they’ll predict future GF% better than other metrics (xGF% has predicted well in the last couple of years as Georges has shown recently)

We are at the end of the year and the GF% is in the bag so we can examine is to see what happened.

As always its should be couched with PDO and probably CF% or xGF for as much context as possible.

GF% is close to +/- except it doesn’t count EN goals, shorties, 4v4, 3v3.

When we look to predict next year I’ll go back to shot metrics as they predict future GF% better than GF% does.

Its has always been about goals.

It just that you can’t use goals in small samples.

frjohnk

I will say that I like the idea of Nurse in the top 4 in his 3rd year a whole lot better than Nurse on the top pair 10 games into his career.

Running threw these Dmen numbers and I am noticing Russell is drag on alot of “for’ metrics for the forwards.
Corsi for goes down with Russell
Shots for go down with Russell
Shot attempts for go down with Russell
Points for go down with Russell

Just for example RNH with Russell points per 60 of 1.37
RNH without Russell points per 60 of 1.69.

McDavid with Russell points per 60 of 2.48
McDavid without Russell points per 60 of 3.06

I do wonder if a good summer for Nurse and if he replaces Russell we end up seeing more offense.

Who knows.

A'bunadh

Woogie63: RNH is a 1OV,playing on an $18M line with Sekera and Russell, that is what I mean by built for success,This line imo, is built to play against the other teams top offensive line, they are, and should expect to attract the best players the other team.

I can’t argue with Nuge being a 1OV and making $6m. No idea what that has to do with his role on the team and how that dictates what his production has to be. (I can argue with him playing on a line with Sekera and Russell though).
Your original post was to the effect that Nuge needs to score 6-8 points this series. (you do know that McDavid only scored 1 EV point last series, and only 4 total, right?) The flaw in that is that if his line scores 6 goals but allows 10, he gets the 6 points you say he needs but we lose. Nuge led the team in shots and had some good looks, and of course it would have been nice for a couple to go in. Even though they didn’t, his play kept the Pavelski/Thornton line in the Dzone more than the Ozone and off the scoresheet. To me that is a huge victory. McDavid/Draisaitl will have to and should outscore the Kesler line. If that happens and Nuge saws off with Getzlaf, we win. Production is important but limiting the other teams production is just as important. We can score 4 goals and win the series and we can score 40 goals and lose the series.
Instead of saying how many individual points a player needs, let’s hope they each have a positive goal differential, even if its a +1/0.

frjohnk

Pouzar: Maybe…haven’t seen the maps but he and Benning didn’t allow a shot below the circles in games 2 and 3. Outside of blowout gm 4 they have been good in that regard.

In the playoffs, their numbers are better, even with the blow out loss. Very good arrows, but small sample size.

EDIT: In game 2, I believe the Oilers allowed at 5 on 5, only 6 shots from the slot and the area by the slot.

That was a fantastic game defensively

stephen sheps

VOR: I am edging ever closer to going live with my own blog

F*$k yes! That’s really good news. Very excited to see you with your own page.

Pouzar

frjohnk: The bigger issue for Nurse is the fact that when he is on the ice, the opposition gets too many shot attempts from the slot and many of these lead to goals.

Maybe…haven’t seen the maps but he and Benning didn’t allow a shot below the circles in games 2 and 3. Outside of blowout gm 4 they have been good in that regard.

blainer

Bag of Pucks:
I’m struck today by the parallels btw the “Leon is not a river pusher as a C” and the “Nurse is not ready for 2nd pairing” statements. In Leon’s case, I’m absolutely convinced he is a river pusher NOW. He simply needs to be put in that position with skilled linemates and the dataset/proof of concept will quickly follow to validate the hypothesis. It’s a case of the data lagging behind the real-time development of the player atm.

With Nurse, and because D do not develop in a straight line, I think he’s ready for the leap next season, but I suspect his data will be very much a mixed bag over the first 50GPs and eventually stabilize over the last 30GPs. Over that first 50GPs, he’ll have some good nights as a second pairing stud and some not so good nights. That’s development. But the odd bad night should not invalidate the good nights that indicate a young defenceman finding his way with tougher mins and opps.

Ultimately, much as Chia didn’t bring in a player to push Klefbom down the depth chart this season, I think he’ll do the same for Nurse next year. They’ll project their roster and envision Nurse to play 2nd pairing next year and only a disastrous showing in the preseason will get them to airlift in a vet. Cos much like Benning this season, if Nurse can plug into that role, it’s a massive fix both balance wise and from a cap management pov.

Mr. BoP you are really saying good things today !!

blainer

Bag of Pucks: The good news in all of this imo is regardless of what we may agree or disagree on, I trust TMac to make the right call. His coaching and development of the D this year was top notch.

Nice to have an HC we finally trust to make the right call on this. If he says Darnell has to stay 3rd pairing to start the season next year, that’s good enough for me. I’m just predicting that Nurse will have a stellar TC and force the issue to move up the depth chart : )

I totally agree with your take on the coach.

I cannot remember the last time we had a coach making such smart decisions. He has done a remarkable job so far in the playoffs making IMO the right decisions with the blender and making most of us here look real dumb by his continuous decision to dress DD.

I will give you that if Nurse comes to camp and shows he’s ready and a lot of that has to do with his learning on the job now then bring it on. Move him up.

I would still keep him on a short leash in my mind. And I do think the coach will see it that way too if it’s not working. I have been watching Nurse closely lately and he is close IMO.

I really think the rest of the playoffs will help him immensely. Lets hope we at least get through Anaheim.

Bag of Pucks

I’m struck today by the parallels btw the “Leon is not a river pusher as a C” and the “Nurse is not ready for 2nd pairing” statements. In Leon’s case, I’m absolutely convinced he is a river pusher NOW. He simply needs to be put in that position with skilled linemates and the dataset/proof of concept will quickly follow to validate the hypothesis. It’s a case of the data lagging behind the real-time development of the player atm.

With Nurse, and because D do not develop in a straight line, I think he’s ready for the leap next season, but I suspect his data will be very much a mixed bag over the first 50GPs and eventually stabilize over the last 30GPs. Over that first 50GPs, he’ll have some good nights as a second pairing stud and some not so good nights. That’s development. But the odd bad night should not invalidate the good nights that indicate a young defenceman finding his way with tougher mins and opps.

Ultimately, much as Chia didn’t bring in a player to push Klefbom down the depth chart this season, I think he’ll do the same for Nurse next year. They’ll project their roster and envision Nurse to play 2nd pairing next year and only a disastrous showing in the preseason will get them to airlift in a vet. Cos much like Benning this season, if Nurse can plug into that role, it’s a massive fix both balance wise and from a cap management pov.

judgedrude

digger50:
VOR,

Do spiders get headaches?

My spider sense is tingling!

Roughneck

Of note. HRR will track with the success of one building and one team in Orange.
Were our CDN dollar within shouting distance of par rogers place and the edmonton oilers would be a cash pipleline into league coffers. Sadly our cdn dollar is mitigating the effect. It would be very revealing to see the game revenue disparity between Anaheim and Edmonton in this series.
Anyone have any inputs or thoughts?

If Anaheims game revenue is X what multiple of X is Edmontons?

Woogie63

Woodguy v2.0:
Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers


“He has a very high hockey IQ & the toolkit to go with it. Those are the qualities of high-end two-way centres.” Coach McLellan on @RNH_93

Yikes, when a coach points to a players high hockey IQ ….

frjohnk

Bag of Pucks:
frjohnk,

The bad pair is post Benning’s injury?

Im running around corsica to figure it out but cant find out as it will not let me do a date query.

Woogie63

A’bunadh: If going up against the opposition’s top lines is being set up to succeed I’d hate to see what being set up to fail is.

RNH is a 1OV, playing on an $18M line with Sekera and Russell, that is what I mean by built for success, This line imo, is built to play against the other teams top offensive line, they are, and should expect to attract the best players the other team.

Side

Ducey: I was interested to read 20 of the thoughts on what BUF might do at GM. But Elliott missed the biggest problem there. That’s that the owner, Pegula, and by the sounds of it, his wife, have their hands in hockey ops decisions.

I would think most competent GM’s and coaches would not want any part of that.

Fortunately, since the Yak draft, and the installation of Bobby Nicholson, our owner seems to be more interested in building the ice district and chasing starlets.

If you Google ‘buffalo sabres gm’, it comes back with Buffalo Sabres / General Manager – Jack Eichel.

Funny stuff.

Also didn’t Pegula say that he wasn’t involved much with the decision to hire Murray? Sounds like he already tried the hands off approach and felt it didn’t work out for him.

frjohnk

classict,

N64,

Yup.

DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING ( the bad pair) 132 minutes
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
45.81 43.82 40.8 44.41

DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING ( the good pair) 113 minutes
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
54.63 53.63 54.2 58.66

Bag of Pucks

frjohnk,

The bad pair is post Benning’s injury?

Bag of Pucks

blainer: I really like this. I am a big Nurse fan but we must be careful on how we deploy him. To my eye and this is why I really enjoy the stats you guys post as it really backs up what my eye tells me and my eye tells me Nurse is still 3rd pair.

He is often too quick to ice the puck and still rushes his decisions at times. This is expected with the amount of games he has played.

We have a potential top pairing D here but let him learn the correct way. Ease him in to a bigger role.

And when we do move him up put him with Lars who I think is already a top guy by my eye. Bet next year Larsson really steps up to an even bigger role to be a top guy in the league overall..Nurse and Lars will be the top pairing by next year come playoff time IMO..

But give Nurse half the season easing him in to more minutes.. if he shows he’s ready.

The good news in all of this imo is regardless of what we may agree or disagree on, I trust TMac to make the right call. His coaching and development of the D this year was top notch.

Nice to have an HC we finally trust to make the right call on this. If he says Darnell has to stay 3rd pairing to start the season next year, that’s good enough for me. I’m just predicting that Nurse will have a stellar TC and force the issue to move up the depth chart : )

frjohnk

More Dmen numbers.

EDIT: OK this got out of hand, but since I crunched all these numbers here we go.

Adam Larsson
If Larsson is paired with a Dmen who can move the puck ( which is Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse) they have very good on ice metrics for. The surprising find in the counts against is that they are very high as well.

In limited minutes Sekera and Larsson ( 71 mins) had the best D pair numbers by far.
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
56.02 56.49 55 57.04

Nurse and Larsson ( this is our future tough minutes pairing)
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
52.42 52.58 56 58.48

Klefbom and Larsson
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
49.8 51.36 51.66 50.24

Lots of shots, scoring chances, goals and goals from the slot against when Larsson is on the ice ( except with Russell) but the good thing is that more is happening in the other end ( except with Russell)

Russell
He drags everybody down when it comes to on ice metrics for…….except Klefbom. Klefbom is so good he lifts up Russell to almost average in corsi, shot,s expected goals for metrics on the Oiler D pairings!!!!!

And when we look at overall metrics Klefbom and Russell together
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
48.12 50.54 52.24 51.53

Sekera
With Larsson fantastic
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
56.02 56.49 55 57.04

Same with Benning
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
53.49 53.29 53.35 54.625

But of course dragged down by Russell ( should mention the two lefty thing here) so I dont mind the numbers much
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
45.48 48.48 48.62 49.97

And I just realised we have two Matt Bennings and two Darnell Nurses so disregard some of my numbers from before.

DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING ( the bad pair)
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
45.81 43.82 40.8 44.41
DARNELL.NURSE MATTHEW.BENNING ( the good pair)
CF% FF% SF% xGF%
54.63 53.63 54.2 58.66

Will try to update before I got to go.

blainer

frjohnk: Nurses numbers with Gryba were affected by a poor on ice shooting percentage of 2.6%.
4 goals for, 8 goals against

GF/60 of 0.84
GA/60 of 1.67

I like the goals against number.And if we look at the 3 forwards with the most TOI with Nurse were Maroon, McDavid and Leon one would expect a better goals for number even with Gryba.

Looking at Gryba and Nurse together
CF% 52.31
SF% 49.84
SCF% 49.8
xGF% of 49.7%

So they were not getting their heads caved in and then if we look at the on ice metrics for and compare to the the top 7 D pairs in TOI shots for average

corsi for/60
Nurse Gryba 57.27
Oiler D pair avg 54.62

shot for/60
Nurse Gryba 32.21
Oiler D pair avg 29.29

expected goals for/60
Nurse Gryba 2.68
Oiler D pair avg 2.62

we see that the offense should not have been stifled.

The bigger issue for Nurse is the fact that when he is on the ice, the opposition gets too many shot attempts from the slot and many of these lead to goals.

The Oilers could put him in the top 4 and “hope” he makes huge progress this summer, but this team is far removed from hope.

Nurse in the 3rd pairing next year is the right thing to do.

I really like this. I am a big Nurse fan but we must be careful on how we deploy him. To my eye and this is why I really enjoy the stats you guys post as it really backs up what my eye tells me and my eye tells me Nurse is still 3rd pair.

He is often too quick to ice the puck and still rushes his decisions at times. This is expected with the amount of games he has played.

We have a potential top pairing D here but let him learn the correct way. Ease him in to a bigger role.

And when we do move him up put him with Lars who I think is already a top guy by my eye. Bet next year Larsson really steps up to an even bigger role to be a top guy in the league overall.. Nurse and Lars will be the top pairing by next year come playoff time IMO..

But give Nurse half the season easing him in to more minutes.. if he shows he’s ready.

N64

classict:
frjohnk,

And actually Puckalytics is showing completely different numbers than you have for Nurse & Benning

Figured it out. You’re missing 113 minutes where Nurse played with Matthew Benning not Matt Benning ? in those minutes they played quite well.

He needs to go back to his full name full time.

Ducey

106 and 106:
From Friedman’s 30 Thoughts:

19. It is very rare that players reach out to me to promote their coaches, but one did last week. He texted on behalf of AHL Grand Rapids coach Todd Nelson, who was in Edmonton before Todd McLellan. The Griffins are up 2–0 on Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs. He felt Nelson deserved more “buzz” around his name.

Anton Lander strikes again.

I was interested to read 20 of the thoughts on what BUF might do at GM. But Elliott missed the biggest problem there. That’s that the owner, Pegula, and by the sounds of it, his wife, have their hands in hockey ops decisions.

I would think most competent GM’s and coaches would not want any part of that.

Fortunately, since the Yak draft, and the installation of Bobby Nicholson, our owner seems to be more interested in building the ice district and chasing starlets.

rickithebear

RNH: 6’0″ 187 4yr @ 6M
Averages: gm/EVG/PPG/EVA/PPA/+/-
69/11/4/17/7/-10
7.60 PKGA/60
44.7 FO%; 30.4% OZF; 29.5 DZF; 40.1 NZF

Hanzal 6’6″ 226 UFA
averages
68gm/12/4/16/7/-3
5.88 PKGA/60
56.2 FO%; 30.5 OZF; 35.5 DZF; 34.0 NZF

Pouliot 6’3′ 200 2 @ 4M
Averages
61/8/3/12/2/ -6
5.34 PKGA/60

D. King 6’3″ 232 UFA
averages
80/12/0/11/0/-3
3.19 PKGA/60

the top one makes me confortable to do a trade with nuge!

Bag of Pucks

treevojo: I mostly agree.

I think Nurse’s nhl numbers so far pale in comparison to the defender he will become.

With the experience he is gaining now and with another summer of training and a full regular season next year I will be shocked if he isn’t playing top 4 minutes in next years playoffs.

Sometimes the eyes don’t lie.

Big Nurse fan.

He’s yet to play 80 GPs in this league. I think people sometimes forget that.

KBom is one year older and this is the season the light finally turned on for him.

Suspect the same thing will happen for Nurse next year.

This team is finally in a good place where these prospects aren’t being automatically fed the toughest minutes and they can learn these lessons without it costing the team games. Nice place to be.

When Klefbom went out last game, Nurse was automatically elevated alongside Larsson. That’s a positive arrow imo and speaks to TMac’s comfort level with the player’s development.

classict

frjohnk,

And actually Puckalytics is showing completely different numbers than you have for Nurse & Benning

Figured it out. You’re missing 113 minutes where Nurse played with Matthew Benning not Matt Benning 😉 in those minutes they played quite well.

Gayfish

Scungilli Slushy: Gagner

Gagner is a goog pp guy. He can’t skate and is stupid defensively, which makes him a liability 5×5. He is much better than two b-list rookies who might not be in the league two years from now.

I hated Gagner, but you have to respect he scored 50pts last year, and has some skills. He had more points than the other two combined. He will be too expensive, and redundant imo in that he is a pp passer rather than a shooter.

classict

frjohnk,

I think most of that time with Nurse was after Benning’s injury? I’m not sure where that could be checked.

If that’s true it could be part of the reason their numbers aren’t great. Assuming, as I think a few people do, that the injury impacted his play afterwards.

Professor Q

treevojo: Actually they took out the “mighty ducks” causing Anaheim to immediately drop “mighty” from their name.

With the current team employing ex Canuck douche bags such as Kesler and Bieksa it is only fair for them to be known as lame ducks.

Oilers in five

Book it!

Although it was the first series that they tested out just using Anaheim Ducks, if I recall correctly. Not a bad third jersey, to be honest.

I always loved Mighty Ducks of Anaheim as well as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

VOR

Just for those who were curious,

1029 0 45 45 is the stat line for Patrick Roy.

Digger 50, I suggest if this posts that you check out the link. Spider brains are amazing, fill up to 80% of their body cavity. So is it possible that they get headaches, probably.

https://braindecoder.com/post/spider-brain-great-mystery-in-a-tiny-head-1094514994

Spoiler, yes you can see the effects of the influx of European free agents and to a lesser extent the effect of the first big push to sign college free agents.

treevojo

Bruce McCurdy: Heh heh last time the Oilers took out the Sharks they took out the Ducks in the very next series.
*cackles maniacally*

Actually they took out the “mighty ducks” causing Anaheim to immediately drop “mighty” from their name.

With the current team employing ex Canuck douche bags such as Kesler and Bieksa it is only fair for them to be known as lame ducks.

Oilers in five

Book it!

Gerta Rauss

spoiler: Would we? He’s on the roster, under contract at the time of the draft. I admit I’m largely ignoring the rules till it we can ignore them no longer.But AFAIK pending FAs count towards teams’ expansion requirements.

I think the D man you are exposing to the draft has to have a signed contract for 17/18

*edit-in addition to the other requirements ie: 30 NHL games in 16/17 or 70 games in the last 2 seasons

*edit 2-it’s 40 games in 16/17 or 70 over the last 2

frjohnk

Running more numbers for the D pairs.

Looking at the D pairs that played more than 130 together ( 7 sets) and Nurse and Benning were the worst.

CF% FF% SF% xGF% SCF%
45.81 43.82 40.8 44.41 47.83

Heck they were even worse than Russell and Larsson ( which was not terrible) who had together

CF% FF% SF% xGF% SCF%
46.76 46.89 49.66 48.23 51.11

But we know that McLellan likes goal metrics and Nurse and Benning do better here, in which they had 7 goals for and 6 against. This is the only positive metric they had together all year.

spoiler

Gerta Rauss: This ,of course, would mean we’d have to offer a contract to Gryba for us to meet the expansion draft rules ( I could live with that, I like Gryba as the 7/8 D)

Would we? He’s on the roster, under contract at the time of the draft. I admit I’m largely ignoring the rules till we can ignore them no longer. But AFAIK pending FAs count towards teams’ expansion requirements.

treevojo

Bag of Pucks:

I’m always amazed by how much this fanbase underrates Nurse.

I mostly agree.

I think Nurse’s nhl numbers so far pale in comparison to the defender he will become.

With the experience he is gaining now and with another summer of training and a full regular season next year I will be shocked if he isn’t playing top 4 minutes in next years playoffs.

Sometimes the eyes don’t lie.

Big Nurse fan.

spoiler

Woodguy v2.0,

This looks closer to what my eye is telling me. Good on Padre, for pointing out the shooting percentage skewing the GF numbers. The splits are pretty light, if 20 games is our line in the sand for samples, and thus subject to weirdness.

IMO, the thing about moving up is ideally you want it done with a partner who can cover the learning curve. The only defenseman on the roster that can do that is Stache, and he’s busy doing other things.

106 and 106

From Friedman’s 30 Thoughts:

19. It is very rare that players reach out to me to promote their coaches, but one did last week. He texted on behalf of AHL Grand Rapids coach Todd Nelson, who was in Edmonton before Todd McLellan. The Griffins are up 2–0 on Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs. He felt Nelson deserved more “buzz” around his name.

Anton Lander strikes again.

frjohnk

Woodguy v2.0:
NURSE, DARNELL40.5
GRYBA, ERIC34.5

Since Nurse played so much with Gryba, I sliced the data even thinner:

Nurse GF% overall 50%
Nurse GF% with Gryba 33.3%
Nurse GF% without Gryba 54.5%

Nurse GF% with McDavid and with Gryba 75%
Nurse GF% with McDavid and without Gryba 66.7%

Nurse GF% without McDavid and with Gryba 12.5% (!!!! that’s over 200 minutes too…..)

And finally, a measure of a man without the rocket or the anchor:

Nurse GF% without McDavid and without Gryba 48.3%

Well, looks like Nurse is a NHLer as long as he’s not with Gryba this year.

I still don’t play him 3rd pair next year.

I understand giving your players a chance to shine moving up the depth chart, but that’s done via injuries and not the training camp roster.

You can’t start someone in the top 4 at the beginning of the year with the *hope* that they can handle it.

That’s what MacTavish did.

Nurse will get plenty of time to earn his way up the depth chart.

The top 4 was extremely healthy this year except for Russell missing some time.

McLellan played Benning there, so we know who he thought could handle it more at the time.

Nurse will get a chance too.

Also,

Holy Moly I had no idea that Gryba was that big a drag on Nurse.

That’s crazy.

Nurses numbers with Gryba were affected by a poor on ice shooting percentage of 2.6%.
4 goals for, 8 goals against

GF/60 of 0.84
GA/60 of 1.67

I like the goals against number. And if we look at the 3 forwards with the most TOI with Nurse were Maroon,  McDavid and Leon one would expect a better goals for number even with Gryba.

Looking at Gryba and Nurse together
CF% 52.31
SF% 49.84
SCF% 49.8
xGF% of 49.7%

So they were not getting their heads caved in and then if we look at the on ice metrics for and compare to the the top 7 D pairs in TOI shots for average

corsi for/60
Nurse Gryba 57.27
Oiler D pair avg 54.62

shot for/60
Nurse Gryba 32.21
Oiler D pair avg 29.29

expected goals for/60
Nurse Gryba 2.68
Oiler D pair avg 2.62

we see that the offense should not have been stifled.

The bigger issue for Nurse is the fact that when he is on the ice, the opposition gets too many shot attempts from the slot and many of these lead to goals.

The Oilers could put him in the top 4 and “hope” he makes huge progress this summer, but this team is far removed from hope.

Nurse in the 3rd pairing next year is the right thing to do.

stush18

Woodguy v2.0,

Is Leon a replaceable NHL er?

Forgive me for asking woodguy, but have you ever explained why you like goal share so much? I’ve noticed you’ve been touting that lately, but I dunno if I’ve read a reasoning. Not that you have to explain, and you prolly have explained.

Isn’t goal share just even strength plus/minus?

Gerta Rauss

spoiler: Fayne will be a difficult trade to find a dance partner for, if not impossible. This is not a reliable strategy. It’s one that TMac should explore, yes, but I’d bet he’s been exploring it for months now and… nothing has happened. Maybe some time dropping off the contract helps, but that’s, again, unlikely.

I agree

Fayne’s time with the org is done imo-his games played are a tell. They played him 2 games, just enough to qualify for the expansion draft (70 games) and then buried him. I don’t like the buyout option either but that’s where we’re headed barring an opportunity to move him down the road

I think the only chance we might have to move him is if another team needs a D that has played 70 games over the last 2 years to qualify for the expansion draft, and even then, we’d probably have to retain 1/2 salary to make it palatable (which, in the end, would still be more attractive than buying him out)

This ,of course, would mean we’d have to offer a contract to Gryba for us to meet the expansion draft rules ( I could live with that, I like Gryba as the 7/8 D)

digger50

VOR,

Do spiders get headaches?