ZUMA BEACH

by Lowetide

I knew it would be that kind of game, but didn’t think these Oilers would win it. The Anaheim Ducks bring their own special brand of hell, kind of like Jack Nicholson in The Shining. You just pray you don’t end up like Scatman Crothers and it would be nice if Jack Torrance doesn’t get out of the hedge maze. The Oilers entered the fray, and won the dance! Music!

ASCOT’S FOR TALBOT!

  • Through 20: 1-0 EDM, shots ANA 12-3 and Corsi for 5×5 was 18-8 ANA.
  • Second 20: 1-1 tie, shots ANA 12-9 and Corsi for 5×5 was 21-14 ANA.
  • Final 20: 0-0 tie, shots 16-11 ANA and Corsi for 5×5 was 24-12 ANA.
  • Final: 2-1 EDM, shots 40-23 ANA and Corsi for 5×5 was 63-34 ANA.

The Oilers won this game on guile, Talbot, hard work, positioning and 25 miles of blind luck. Do not look this gift horse in the mouth, and it is safe to say the Anaheim Ducks are going to have a helluva time getting back to even in this series. What a victory!

DEFENSE LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Benning went 11-17 in 12:07 together, 4-2 with McDavid and 2-7 with Desharnais and Letestu. Nurse went 2-9 against Getzlaf, and tried the Savardian spinarama too close to the boards and against same Getzlaf. He took a lot of heat for the penalty, but that happens. The pairing survived without giving up an even-strength goal, and that kind of experience should help the future. These young men are getting valuable experience.
  • Sekera-Russell went 10-19 in 14:34 together, including 4-8 with the McDavid line. Went 3-9 against Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves, that line is diabolical. The pairing did move the puck up, but struggled for long periods. Bend but don’t break is kind of the motto of this pairing, I find it difficult to endure some of the struggles. Massive goal by Sekera, he also plays defense damn well sans stick.
  • Klefbom-Larsson went 10-23 in 15:12 together, they played forever. Went 3-12 with Nuge and 6-11 with McDavid. Went 3-16 against Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves, that’s getting fed no way around it. Went 3-7 against Perry, not sure what line he was on. For the first time in the playoffs, this pairing had a difficult time calming the waters. Credit the Getzlaf line, as the Swedish duo went 7-7 away from the big line. Larsson made his usual subtle defensive plays, including some nice work on the PK.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 39 of 40, .975. There can be no doubt about the most important player in last night’s win. Lordy. He is .934 in the playoffs and I would suggest Edmonton’s current Conn Smythe leader.
  • Numbers via NHL.com, HockeyStats.ca and NaturalStatTrick.

MCDAVID LINE

  • McDavid was flying last night, especially during the first two periods. I thought he might have gotten an assist on the first goal, but it went without one. Definitely recovered from flu, or whatever it was that was impacting performance.
  • Leon received a lot of attention and very little air. Had a couple of giveaways and contributed to some good looks on the 5×4, and showed that wild chem with 97 that has done so much for the Oilers this season.
  • Maroon scored the winning goal, he is the best forward on the team at getting to the front of the net. He could have cashed a couple of 97 passes to boot!
  • The Maroon 5 assault rivaled the Getzlaf mugging as the most ridiculous non-call of the evening, in what was an epic throwback game by the Ducks. I think we were about two degrees away from Ed Whalen showing up to scream “he brings out a foreign object!” on that Maroon play.
  • Went 7-9 against Lindholm, who covered him like a blanket (and should have been penalized a time or two) and 8-10 against Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg. The Ducks are fortunate Edmonton didn’t score more than once at the 5×5 with McDavid out there.
  • Getzlaf not getting a penalty for the blatant interference against McDavid was insane.

NUGE LINE

  • Nuge’s play at the blue line on the GWG was a big play, and he made a lot more. Effective on the PK too. Skated miles, had an effective night despite chasing the play.
  • Eberle’s assist on the same goal showed high skill. I mentioned the other day that Eberle needed to find a way to insert himself into the series, and a PP goal that wins it is a very good solution.
  • Lucic had a moment of terror late when he turned over the puck at the opposition blue, but Klefbom saved him. Almost scored an EN  goal late.
  • Line went 4-16 against Rakell-Getzlaf-Eaves, how that line didn’t score is Talbot. Went 1-7 against Lindholm-Manson.

LETESTU LINE

  • Letestu-Kassian went 6-13 and Pouliot (3-9) chimed in after the Caggiula (1-3) injury.
  • Kassian scored but it was called back because of course it was. There were three options for the zebra’s: goal, no goal and no penalty, and no goal with penalty. I knew before they called it, not based on the play (second option correct call) but based on the established level of criminal activity for both teams.
  • Went 6-9 against Shaw-Vermette-Perry, that’s a good result for this line.
  • With Caggiula possibly out for Game 3, Pouliot moving up may be the best option. Who draws in on the 4line? Options include Iiro Pakarinen, Matt Hendricks, Anton Lander and Jujhar Khaira.

DESHARNAIS LINE

  • Desharnais-Slepyshev went 6-9 and played sparingly after the Caggiula injury.
  • Went 2-7 with Nurse-Benning in three minutes, that’s a set Todd McLellan may want to avoid in the coming days.
  • Desharnais went 1-8 against Getzlaf and 0-10 against Lindholm.
  • Both men performed well in difficult circumstances, which involved sitting for long periods between shifts.
  • Pouliot drew a power play with hard work late.

SUNDAY 5PM START

There are times during the week (Tuesday) when the Oilers are not traditionally strong, and Sunday afternoon starts are the Bermuda triangle. This club has surprised me a lot this season, a win in Game 3, in this time slot, will be another mission accomplished.

https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/858319234618753024

STRAIGHT TALK

At this point, I’m not absolutely certain we can point to a mountain this team can’t climb on the way to the SCF. The Oilers have received fantastic goaltending, are (as shown above) getting good results inside the most attractive scoring zones, and are running luck (and that is a big part of winning pennants, too).

JESSE PULJUJARVI

I have been paying attention to JP’s verbal since the end of the season, and Finnish media is cooperating (although Google translate trolls me hard). It sounds like it was a difficult season and a period of transition for him, hockey and culture. Young man will be back in the fall and we will see him next week at the WHC’s.

FILTHY

By the time this Anaheim series is complete (and it isn’t over yet), we’ll have more evidence to use against the Anaheim Ducks. Whatever the line in the sand might be, Anaheim drove past that and kept on going all night long. Guess what? Doesn’t matter. The NHL likes this kind of playoff hockey and is not going to change the rules for you. If Connor McDavid is going to lead this team to the promised land, he is going to have to pay far more than is reasonable in order to do it. I went through the same experience as a kid, watching Bobby Orr take a tremendous beating (and shortening his career). It’s the wild west, on ice, same as it ever was.

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Wolfpack

I have not seen much said about it but I really dislike the kind of hit that Nurse took from Eaves behind the Oilers net. He was about 4 feet from the boards and completely defenceless. Is that not boarding? I have seen some serious injuries come from hits like that.

delooper

Dee Dee: Aren’t you supposed to die to win that one?

Anyone that does something to remove themselves from evolution is worthy. So, eunuchs qualify, even the non-dead variety.

--hudson--

Clay: You know, I try to not be the type who thinks the refs are biased, but holy cow.That no-call was egregious.Even worse is that OTT was called for a high stick earlier – a legit call – but proof that the refs hadn’t totally put the whistles away.Well, at least not when OTT breaks a rule.

After the Sens gave up two SH goals today, the refs wanted to do them a favour.

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0: Got it.Feel free to erase it if you want.

Also,

For domestic charter flights there is no security.

They can drive the bus right up to the plane and board.

That saves them a few minutes.

Clay

Bruce McCurdy:
Yet more shitty reffing on display in Ottawa. American team gets another massive non-call in their favour when a bloodletting high stick gets called a “follow through” due to the most flexible interpretation of that rule I’ve yet seen.

You know, I try to not be the type who thinks the refs are biased, but holy cow. That no-call was egregious. Even worse is that OTT was called for a high stick earlier – a legit call – but proof that the refs hadn’t totally put the whistles away. Well, at least not when OTT breaks a rule.

Gayfish

I would think they charter, which takes like 10 min to board and be on your way. No security check or anything. Super convenient. Literally will take them 0 time to get to edmonton. Longest part will probably be getting from EIA to Rogers tbh. Then can probably make it from kelowna to EDM in around an hour.

€√¥£€^$

Georges,

The Eberle play is the only blatant missed call vs Edmonton I can think of, but there were around 10 missed calls that were not called vs Anaheim.

The horse collaring of CMD on a potential scoring chance in front of the unobstructed ref combined with the hold by Kassian behind the net shortly after that (which was a penalty, but I believe that the most critical calls need to be the ones that are related to impact on scoring chances) is the problem here.

It isn't the officials job to make sure each team has the same number of penalties, it is to enforce the rules, protect the players and ensure an even playing field. Why did that Lindholm choke hold on Maroon go unpunished, when in the previous game Maroon was penalized for a gloved punch/shove (yet Getzlaf got away with a spear/slash during the same incident).

The officials failed on all counts and that is the point. They are failing the players, all fans and ultimately the game by allowing the amount of violence they did.

Like LT said, crap like this contributed significantly to shortening Bobby Orr's career and we could add Mike Bossy, Eric Lindros and Tim Kerr plus many other stars and lesser players (like Craig Simpson) to that list.

I don't watch the games to see players like Kesler or Burrows or Raffi Torres or Matt Cooke or Tom Wilson, I want to watch the best do their best. And I expect that both teams will be playing with the same rule book.

What I've been seeing are 2 different rule books being used for each team. This is the point.

But what do I know, some Anaheim fans thinks the NHL is conspiring against them to ensure a Canadian team makes it to Stanley…..

Justthestatsman

blainer: Forget that guy’s name who said * It’s not Over til its over *.

This may have already been answered, but I believe it was Yogi Berra. He’s also credited with “90% of this game is half mental”, and “If you don’t go to other peoples’ funerals, they won’t come to yours.”

Bruce McCurdy

Yet more shitty reffing on display in Ottawa. American team gets another massive non-call in their favour when a bloodletting high stick gets called a “follow through” due to the most flexible interpretation of that rule I’ve yet seen.

New Improved Darkness

Run, run, run with my hot little mouse to archive this anomalous tidbit for posterity.

NHL Future Odds — 29 April 2017

Edmonton Oilers 3/1
Pittsburgh Penguins 7/2
Washington Capitals 17/4
Nashville Predators 11/2
Ottawa Senators 8/1
St. Louis Blues 17/2
New York Rangers 10/1
Anaheim Ducks 14/1

I would call this “projectability”, because it captures a slice in time where the series status of each team is wildly different.

BUT—for at least this tiny wrinkle in time, your one-and-only Edmonton Clydesdales* presently occupy the projectability cat-bird seat.

[*] luckiest footwear you ever did see, and lots of it

Woodguy v2.0

Melvis:
Darcy. While I’m at it.

I’m spending the latter part of May on the coast. I don’t think the layover at Yeg on the 13th is any good. Or the train return layover on the 28th. Although I could get off and spend a couple of days in Edmonton. I’ve got a sunk cost on an extra plane ticket. Not sure how I was going to use it. So that’s an option.

As for the stories, they’re better written than told. Nevertheless, I’d welcome an opportunity to pick your brain on the hockey. And I’m good for a dinner out in that regard.

You can em at …if you feel like it.

Got it. Feel free to erase it if you want.

Also,

For domestic charter flights there is no security.

They can drive the bus right up to the plane and board.

Scungilli Slushy

Diablo: Do you mean a Nexus pass? Lol – they cost 50 bucks and are good for 5 years – super useful in Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton and in some but not all US destinations. Took an hour of my time to get the paperwork and security check done. Also very useful when coming back through customs from the US, and also useful as a second piece of government issued photo ID. Worth every penny.

Never flown into Kelowna before, but if their airport is anything like the one here in Winnipeg, then they probably don’t need a Nexus pass. It normally takes me 10-15 minutes to check in my bag and go through security. Small airports are nice like that. Only downside is I usually have to make a connection to get to international destinations.

I like lived in Kelowna for over 10 years, I’d be shocked if they didn’t roll out the red carpet for the myriad NHL’ers that go in and out of there. I am certain they would expedite them, they feel Kelowna is a world class place to live and go to so don’t want to look backwater to the mucky mucks.

Scungilli Slushy

Richard S.S.:
As future salaries go, Draisaitl should be in the $8.0-9.0 Million range over 7 or 8 years after this postseason’s performance.I also wouldn’t offer Connor less than $12.0 – 14.0 Million per over eight years also.But if it’s possible to sign them or less.

Teams that reward playoff performance or a season with fat contracts always come out ahead, like it did before for the Oilers.

Seriously, Drai is showing he has talent. Show me he can drive his own line at this level for a couple of seasons so we know it’s for real, and we’ll talk being paid at the top of the league.

He is 21, he still has to prove that he can do this all of the time. Bridge deal, 5-6M in a flat cap period. If he had it season in and out pay him. Also, this would extend him on his next RFA into his 30’s which is better for he team.

It is also good to keep him hungry and not strap a young player with a contract that can only be worth it with sustained elite play. That is a lot of pressure and will likely cause the loss of Eberle and Nuge because they are too high for their overall play.

The fortunate thing is this season has bonded these guys and they want to be Oilers and they are not satisfied with anything but ultimate success evidenced by the verbal that they went to Duckland to bag two wins – they are aiming high. McD and Leon are bright guys, they know that take by too much means losing quality in their teammates. If anyone won’t take a ‘playing with McDavid’s Oilers’ discount trade them for a bounty. That would make them selfish. It’s not like they aren’t going to be paid a ton either way.

JD_Wry

Diablo: Do you mean a Nexus pass?

I guess that’s what you people call it.

raventalon40

hunter1909: I seriously doubt if there’s a new commissioner by July 1st.

The NHL is losing the concussion lawsuit handily so far.

raventalon40

Side: That doesn’t explain why in game 1 of this series, after the play behind the net was whistled down, lucic was slashed from behind so he retaliated by slashing back only to take a penalty for it.

Further to your point, doesn’t explain McDavid being hauled down by Getzlaf at the faceoff circle. A definite “scoring event”

Lucinius
Diablo

JDI Хоккей: I would think they have those express pass thingys that I see upper-class peoples use when they breezeby me and the muggles waiting for our cavity searches.

So they’re in Kelowna at 11 pm local time on Sunday, after their loss. They then fly in Wednesday morning at, say 11 am Edmonton time. That’s almost 60 hours of fanatic free away time.

Do you mean a Nexus pass? Lol – they cost 50 bucks and are good for 5 years – super useful in Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton and in some but not all US destinations. Took an hour of my time to get the paperwork and security check done. Also very useful when coming back through customs from the US, and also useful as a second piece of government issued photo ID. Worth every penny.

Never flown into Kelowna before, but if their airport is anything like the one here in Winnipeg, then they probably don’t need a Nexus pass. It normally takes me 10-15 minutes to check in my bag and go through security. Small airports are nice like that. Only downside is I usually have to make a connection to get to international destinations.

Pescador

Chris:
I’m assuming they are staying in Kelowna as many of the western Canadians on the team have summer homes there. Beyond that perhaps more of them would rather crash at their friends summer home/mansion than staying even in a swanky hotel room in Edmonton. Beyond that they won’t have to deal with people in Edmonton being insane for a day.

That , plus their girlfriends are in Kelowna, wives are back in Anaheim.

Bulging Twine

Lucinius: Simple. Eastern teams win all lotto spots.

I’d like that

admiralmark

Richard S.S.:
As future salaries go, Draisaitl should be in the $8.0-9.0 Million range over 7 or 8 years after this postseason’s performance.I also wouldn’t offer Connor less than $12.0 – 14.0 Million per over eight years also.But if it’s possible to sign them or less.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up less for both. And not because they don’t deserve it. My guess would be Drai at $7 Million per and McDavid at $10 Million per. Somewhere in the middle of a home town discount and Market value. Partially driven by both these players wanting good player around them. And recognizing in a cap world the limitations on what can be built if you are tying up $20-$23 Million of cap space for 2 players.

Lucinius

Bulging Twine:
fascinated to find out how the Oilers manage to have success in this years draft lottery!

Simple. Eastern teams win all lotto spots.

flyfish1168

Playoff hockey often is more about toughness then just skill. Being a bully is ok in the playoffs according to the NHL refs. Well I really hope the Oilers give Getzlaf a whack in the back of the knee after the game or when the refs not looking just to let him know we can be dirty just like him. Tired of the Refs not calling it during the game. We need to knock Getzlaf down a few pegs and keep him occupied that we are willing to hit him dirty at every turn.

NHL sends the wrong message to people when infractions are not called. This changes the game when the refs put away the whistle.

Melvis

$32 mil on Drai and McDavid. Welcome to your ’18/’19 Edmonton Oilers. All nine of them.

Bulging Twine

fascinated to find out how the Oilers manage to have success in this years draft lottery!

leadfarmer

Centre of attention:
Szymon Szemberg‏ @Sz1909_Szemberg6h6 hours ago
MoreIlya Kovalchuk not going to #IIHFWorlds, will undergo knee surgery.

Maybe pass on Kovy if he’s having his knee worked on at age 34?

Depends what the surgery is? Could be just a scope and meniscus shave

JD_Wry

commonfan14: right to swap 1st round picks

I’m envisioning a Louie DePalma scene where he rubs salt in someone’s wounds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSzEZscQBg4

JD_Wry

Chachi: Assuming the Ducks can get through security and on to the plane immediately

I would think they have those express pass thingys that I see upper-class peoples use when they breeze by me and the muggles waiting for our cavity searches.

So they’re in Kelowna at 11 pm local time on Sunday, after their loss. They then fly in Wednesday morning at, say 11 am Edmonton time. That’s almost 60 hours of fanatic free away time.

Richard S.S.

As future salaries go, Draisaitl should be in the $8.0-9.0 Million range over 7 or 8 years after this postseason’s performance. I also wouldn’t offer Connor less than $12.0 – 14.0 Million per over eight years also. But if it’s possible to sign them or less.

commonfan29

If only Chia had negotiated a “right to swap 1st round picks” clause into the Larsson deal, today would really be peak Lowetide.ca.

Frank the dog

Chris:
I’m assuming they are staying in Kelowna as many of the western Canadians on the team have summer homes there. Beyond that perhaps more of them would rather crash at their friends summer home/mansion than staying even in a swanky hotel room in Edmonton. Beyond that they won’t have to deal with people in Edmonton being insane for a day.

At the price of flying in, seeing all the flags and derricks and crazy fans as they bus in from the airport, then flying to Kelowna right after the game, only to repeat for Game 3. Surely that alone is a little more tiring and disruptive than staying in a local hotel where they are playing a team where the populace doesn’t give a damn.
Let alone going through the noise and booing of a beserk crowd!

Melvis

New Improved Darkness: If you model the future as flips of a fair coin, 33% of comebacks occur in six games (4 choose 4 : 4 choose 3 * 1/2 = 1:2).

“However, to model this, one needs to pluck a Bayesian prior out of one’s Bayesian aperture.”

Best line of the week.

While sitting on the Dock of the Baysian prior, I’ve often plucked something out of the Baysian aperture.

However, within self-deprecatory terms, I’m uncetain of the code governing heuristics.

PDO

Georges:
The refs called 4 penalties on the Ducks and 4 penalties on the Oilers. 4 PP opportunities each.

They didn’t call Getzlaf’s takedown of CMD. They didn’t call Eberle’s takedown of Vermette.

And Eberle’s was with a little over a minute left to play.

It’s a travesty.

I missed the part where PPs were supposed to be even at the end of the game, could you show that to me ib yhe rule book please?

leadfarmer

Looks like the ducks are starting their summer vacation already. Need to get good spots in Kelowna before all the kids get done with school

Centre of attention

Szymon Szemberg‏ @Sz1909_Szemberg 6h6 hours ago
More
Ilya Kovalchuk not going to #IIHFWorlds, will undergo knee surgery.

Maybe pass on Kovy if he’s having his knee worked on at age 34?

New Improved Darkness

JustWatt: It’s interesting to hear you say that those that come back often win 4-2.

If you model the future as flips of a fair coin, 33% of comebacks occur in six games (4 choose 4 : 4 choose 3 * 1/2 = 1:2).

But in truth, comebacks are more likely if the team bouncing back was the stronger team to begin with, or the chokers fell victim to physical ailments. However, to model this, one needs to pluck a Bayesian prior out of one’s Bayesian aperture.


odds <- function (g, w, p) {
q <- 1-p
x <- g-w
choose(g,w)*p^w*q^x
}

p <- 0.21; r <- c(p,1-p); sum(odds (2,0,r) * odds(4,3,r) * odds(1,1,r)) / sum(odds (2,0,r) * odds(4,4,r))

[1] 0.9931158

By this calculation (which looks correct), if you have a series where the strong team wins 79% against the weak team (massive strength imbalance), comebacks from 2-0 will occur equally often in 6 games or 7 games.

For p=0.5 (equal teams), the answer comes back as 2.0, as stated above.

Note: sum() is used to add weak to strong for each comeback scenario.

———

So that doesn’t tell me much I wouldn’t have guessed already.

What is interesting is that for p=0.6 (a substantial strength imbalance), the ratio comes out as 1.85. The curve is extremely flat in the region of plausibility.

Availability heuristic

The availability heuristic operates on the notion that if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions which are not as readily recalled.

The express comeback happens 33% of the time on a fair coin, but it’s massively more humiliating in brain-stem playground salience.

(Note that I didn’t model home-ice advantage, which doubles the number of terms, because you have to also consider which team starts the series with home ice, and that involves a second pluck, because you really need to know how often the stronger team starts with home ice in the plausible world.)

--hudson--

There is live game audio of the referee being mic’d while talking to Getzlaf in game 1. Unbelievable that Getzlaf was complaining about a missed call (about a minute in):
https://youtu.be/nE1WQqG3JTM?t=1m2s

Just unbelievable.

--hudson--

Chris:
I’m assuming they are staying in Kelowna as many of the western Canadians on the team have summer homes there. Beyond that perhaps more of them would rather crash at their friends summer home/mansion than staying even in a swanky hotel room in Edmonton. Beyond that they won’t have to deal with people in Edmonton being insane for a day.

It seems like a Ducks tradition, 2 years ago they stayed in Banff between games 3 and 4 versus Calgary. (credit to Terry Jones for asking Carlyle about this last night)

Proof: http://www.latimes.com/sports/ducks/la-sp-ducks-flames-fyi-20150507-story.html

And an interesting quote:
“The city of Calgary is a tough city to be in when you’re in a playoff run,” he said. “That city really gets behind their team. There’s a lot going on, whether it’d be at the hotel or around the hotel. Those kind of things. Sometimes it’s nice to just step away and not have to deal with people yelling in your face, those kind of things when you’re trying to walk down the street.”

McSorley33

For me, with the exception of a couple of decent offensive forays…..not super pumped about Cags.

Don’t get me wrong, I like him long term…..but right now,,,meh.

jm363561

Chachi: Are you sure about that?

Well I was until I read this tweet:

The #Oilers have taken a 2-0 lead in 14 best-of-seven series in their history prior to tonight. They’ve yet to lose a series after doing so

McSorley33

Centre of attention,

Glad Tmac has joined the Sleppy party…..better late than never.

Bulging Twine

Encouraging to see Edmonton winning the inner slot shots.

N64

Chris: I’m assuming they are staying in Kelowna as many of the western Canadians on the team have summer homes there

Also very convenient for them to fly direct to Kelowna after game 4 😉

McSorley33

JDI Хоккей,

Agreed on Sleppy….one of the few forwards that seemed to be able to ho,d possession in Ducks end.

My affinity for the player is growing…….

Caller Zen

LT without a single mention of the draft lottery today … is this for real? Am I dreaming?

Chachi

Melvis:
Chachi,

Cory Perry can’t check out a suit at Harry’s, or pinch a butt at Hooters, or anything else at WED without attracting attention is all I’m saying.

I get you.

Chris

I’m assuming they are staying in Kelowna as many of the western Canadians on the team have summer homes there. Beyond that perhaps more of them would rather crash at their friends summer home/mansion than staying even in a swanky hotel room in Edmonton. Beyond that they won’t have to deal with people in Edmonton being insane for a day.

Centre of attention

Coach says he’s counting on Caggulia being good for game 3

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Great post LT! I posted this in last thread teams that are up 2-0 in playoffs win more than 86% of time. We are extremely likely to win series now

– and I’d guess 95%+ that win the first two on road win

– also this is playoff hockey. We were leading. They are a good team. When good teams are not leading they will dominate. Always. We won because at the end of the game we were in the lead. That’s how you win games.

– single game corsi analysis in playoffs doesn’t do anything except confirm scoring effects. Teams would rather hold on for dear life with the lead than have to score to tie it up and then score again to lead.

Melvis

Chachi,

Cory Perry can’t check out a suit at Harry’s, or pinch a butt at Hooters, or anything else at WED without attracting attention is all I’m saying.