2017 PLAYOFFS (G9): G3 DUCKS AT OILERS

by Lowetide

Such a bizarre series, seems I say every game is the biggest. Still, with a shocking 2-0 lead this morning, a win tonight hammers home the final result for both teams. I suspect we get Anaheim’s best effort tonight and we could go extra innings. I am beginning to wonder about Carlyle’s deployment, and the defensive depth of the Ducks. I have been told that the Getzlaf-Perry era is beginning to fade in Anaheim, but I don’t believe that for one damned minute.

OILERS DEPTH CHART AND PLAYOFF SCORING

  • Five of Edmonton’s 21 goals come via the blue, with some gigantic goals from the trio of Klefbom, Larsson and Sekera.
  • The most impressive number is Cam Talbot’s save percentage, that’s a rocket.
  • We’re all waiting for Connor McDavid to break out and post a gigantic crooked number, and he had the jet boots on ’11’ on Friday night. Wingers gotta cash. It’s a tribute to 97 that we all agree his impact game is a matter of when and not if it happens.
  • Drake Caggiula has zero points but he’s getting closer. One of those line drives is going to fall in someday soon. Looks like he will play tonight.
  • The Nuge line skilled for the winning goal on Friday night, RNH and Eberle made good plays to get it done. Maroon found a way.
  • Zack Kassian has more goals called back in one season than anyone in my lifetime. Seems to be taking it in stride, though.

I asked Ilya to reach out to one of the EMHL’s players, idea being giving you an idea about the experience. Lyndon Anderson plays for the Resistance, here’s what he told us:

  • I’ve been playing in the EMHL now for 10 years. I started out as a beginner in the coed league with no previous organized hockey experience. After 5 seasons I decided to start my own club in the EMHL men’s league as well as the coed league. My involvement in the EMHL has been very rewarding. Not only do I get to play with my brothers  but I’ve learned a lot about the game of hockey as well as how to manage a club and keep things organized on and off the ice. The task can be stressful at times but I find it’s worth it to see everyone enjoying themselves and having fun.

Click on the ad above if you are interested in joining a summer men’s or co-ed league, Ilya says if we get enough registrants he may turn it into a Lowetide team. I told him my team needed to lead the league in Corsi, after that it’s all good.

SUPER WOWY’S

The fantastically talented Puckalytics is running with or without you numbers during the playoffs and it’s a blast. Small sample size for sure, but fun all the same. If you want to spend several hours playing with it, check out the SuperWowy setup here. Here are some numbers to think about this morning.

  • Connor McDavid is 35.3 percent Corsi for 5×5 against Hampus Lindholm so far in the Anaheim series. He is 52.9 against the rest of the Ducks during this series. We are talking just 15:31, and score effects are part of the story, but interesting all the same.
  • Connor McDavid is 47.2 Corsi for percentage against Ryan Kesler, in 16:36, 40.6 percent without Kesler. Early days, important not to overrate these numbers but they are interesting.
  • Connor McDavid is 33.3 Corsi for percentage against Ryan Getzlaf, in 9:24, and 50 percent without Getzlaf.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 25.0 Corsi for percentage against Getzlaf, in 16:23, and 37.5 percent without Getzlaf.

RECALLS

The Anaheim Ducks recalled Nicolas Kerdiles and Ondrej Kase, perhaps there is an injury or Randy Carlyle isn’t getting what he wants from specific players. Or it could be a matter of giving young prospects a taste of NHL playoff hockey. The Ducks constantly uncover useful and fun hockey players, their draft record is quality.

DRAKE CAGGIULA

Hockey-Reference’s player season finder is a dandy tool, and now that we are through the year we can begin to examine comparables. Drake Caggiula was a rookie at 22 and his comparables are players we mostly associate with being two-way types. It is a fine list, and if he ends up being Tobias Rieder we should celebrate, but unless Caggiula plays a lot on Connor McDavid’s line, the early numbers imply a mid-level offensive talent.

JESSE PULUJUARVI

This is a more promising group than I thought we would see, the eye ponders the Seguin comparable and the heart leaps. We need to factor in linemates (97) but sure, since JP is a year younger as a rookie we can contemplate. Before we proceed as if this is a reasonable comparable, I need to see Puljujarvi as a shooter (something Seguin delivered on as a rookie).

Jesse Puljujarvi totaled 7.81 shots-per-60 in all situations as a rookie, and Seguin’s total was 8.70 per 60. JP is a year younger, does that impact our decision? Puljujarvi has all kinds of gifts, but if he can emerge as a 30-goal scorer then Peter Chiarelli’s heavy work is far closer to being complete.

https://twitter.com/simonsnake70/status/858686625928314880

Boisvert is a very interesting follow on twitter, I have had him on my show to discuss Oilers prospects several times (and will again). I find his takes on the entry draft fascinating, because they are informed and non-traditional. WHY does he have Makar at No. 1? My system suggests Makar is in fact one of the 10 best prospects in the draft, but No. 1? And Heiskanen? Fantastic and fascinating. I’ll have to have him on in the coming days.

CAM TALBOT

This blog loves hockey and writes about the game twice a day, rain or shine. The blog’s author hopes for an exchange of thoughts and ideas in the comments section and tries to bring you interesting and thought provoking views. It is not necessarily an opinion blog, more a ‘share your opinion’ blog.

The great mystery for me, in hockey terms, is goaltending. It’s like the final frontier (outer space times the deep blue sea) and even after all of these years my analysis of goalies ranges from ‘what a save!’ to ‘why didn’t he make the save?’ and I doubt there is much progression to come.

I can say, without hesitation, that in 50+ years of watching the hockey, every great playoff run included a goalie doing exactly what Cam Talbot is doing currently for the Edmonton Oilers. That isn’t really analysis, but it is what I can bring to you. Cherish this experience, and credit Talbot with an enormous amount of this growing story. Goalies. Man.

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Surly

Looking forward to the line match-ups with last change. Hopeful this springs a McOutburst and/or appropriate calls from the officials on flat-footed Ducks.

LOL @ ‘nucks….Middlesborough!!!

Ice Sage

The only near-certainty for tonight is that a player, unheralded or hitherto restrained, will make a big difference.
I get the Makar love with Karlsson shining so brightly this spring but he plays in tier 2; he’s a medium term project!

Goil, tar them duckies!

dustrock

I had a dream Game 3 was canceled because the entire Anaheim Ducks team got food poisoning. Then we started calling them “berries”. Getzberry. Perryberry. Lindberry.

Jethro Tull

Surly,

‘Boro? This year, could be the Mackems or the Toon as well!

Greg

I’m pretty sure Talbot actually died when his twins were born and his corpse is so used to playing hockey that it just kept showing up. He has no pulse.

I keep hearing that he hasn’t had to make any spectacular saves. Is this because he’s always in position? The puck bounces around loose in front of him and he doesn’t get excited, doesn’t grab for the puck or try to flail away at it, he just sits there in position cool as ice.

Primetime

Good morning LT!

Don’t want to distract from the Game Day blog, but after a decade of the draft being our Stanley, I can’t help but keep drifting to the future…

The Canucks have to be hugely disappointed at the lottery result…a lost season and will not gain a cornerstone piece for it. In order to excite their fanbase and kickstart the “re-tool” do you think they would be willing to move #5? Would anyone here be interested in #5 and Tanev for RNH/Reinhart (2 BC boys)? Would you only consider if Tippet was still there at #5?

Gives Canucks 2 young building blocks. We have top 4 set for a few years, plus another potential longterm RW solution for Connor.

My actual hope is that RNH continues his strong play, and he wins the Conn Smythe on the way to Stanley this year, becoming untouchable….but this trade could set us up to win now and for years in the future as well.

Johnny

As I bask in the greatness of this Peter Chiarelli assembled PLAYOFF team, I felt like reminiscing about how we got here. I doing so, I started to wonder how the NJ Devils were a worse team after making such a fantastic trade in the off-season (WHAT OFF-SEASON!) so I broke down who was on the ice for them the last couple of years.

2015-2016 2016-2017
Greene 19% Lovejoy 17%
Larsson 19% Severson 16.5%
Moore 15% Greene 15%
Severson 13% Moore 12%
Schlemko 13% Quincey 10%
Merrill 8% Merrill 10%
Others (6) 13% Others (6) 19.5%

Based on 60 minutes X 2 X 82 for dmen

Blueline Analysis (based on wins and losses):
• LoveJoy and Severson basically picked up the missing minutes from Greene (394 minutes) and Larsson (1845 minutes)
• They did NOT do a good job of replacing those minutes

2015-2016 2016-2017
Henrique 12.5% Zajac 12.5%
Zajac 11.5% Henrique 12%
Palmieri 11.5% Hall 11%
Stempniak 9% Palmieri 11%
Kalinin 8% Cammalleri 8%
Gionta 8% Zacha 8%
Josefson 7% Parentaeu 7%
Cammaleri 6% Bennett 7%
Tootoo 6% Wood 6%
T. Kennedy 5% Smith-Pelley 5%
Blandisi 5% Kalinin 4%
Boucher 4% Lappin 4%
Others (13) 6.5% Others (12) 4.5%

Based on [3forwards X 60minutes] – [25 minutes for 4th liners] = 12,710 per game

Forward Analysis:
• Taylor Hall seems to have replaced Lee Stempniaks minutes
o Stempniak 0.65 pts/game +3 (insert whatever advanced stats tell a “better” story here)
o Hall 0.74 pts/game -9 (tell me how much he pushed the river here)

Conclusion:

2015-2016 season: NJ Devils 38-36-8
2016-2017 season: NJ Devils 28-40-14

Taylor Hall, despite being one of the most dynamic players in the game (somehow never scoring 30) and having better advanced stats than most, joined a team that had previously finished above Bettman .500. The team he joined only lost Adam Larsson, 394 minutes of Andy Greene and replaced Gionta with Zacha. Taylor Halls NJ Devils won 10 fewer games than Adam Larssons (and Lee Stempniaks).

Taylor Hall did not have enough of a positive impact to off-set the losses on the blueline. In fact, it looks as though the losses on the blueline were more impactful than adding an impactful LW.

I can’t believe we finally have top-tier management!!!

Johnny

To be clear, I am not here to start a T Hall bashing parade. I am here to celebrate, with my fellow knowledgeable fans, the greatness of our team and high five about the fact that since coming here, Chiarelli has SLAUGHTERED four teams in trades (Talbot, Maroon, Kassian and Larsson). Lost one (Reinhart).

Woooohooooo!!! Go Oilers!!!

supernova

My concern before the series wasn’t as much Kesler’s line stopping McDavid it was the Lindholm/ Manson Pairing.

IMO Manson doesn’t get as much credit out there as he should, and Lindholm is very nearly an Elite Defenceman already.

Earlier this year I had done some “advance scouting” of a few teams, specifically trying to look for Defensive Zone tendencies and systems. I watched the Ducks 6.5 games (plus the Oilers ones).
Manson & Lindholm were very very good plus they can move the puck up to the offensive transition pretty well. Manson playing that chippy game that so many ducks play, and Lindholm isn’t shy to get in some stick work battles as well.

In Game 2 after the Oilers scored early, McLellan played that matchup game with McDavid I was hoping for. Moving Connor all around. Looking to get him away from Kesler but the key should also be to get McDavid ice time versus the 3rd pair. Regardless of who is on the 3rd pair tonight Holzer/Theodore/Bieksa/ Montour all of them have defensive lapses that McDavid can expose.

Game 2 it looked like the entire Oilers team ran out of energy, aside from Talbot.

supernova

Sean Couterier might be available this summer.

Philly needs to re jig some things and with the big lottery win and having Filppula already there, I think a team could get Couterier easier than ever before.

who

supernova:
My concern before the series wasn’t as much Kesler’s line stopping McDavid it was the Lindholm/ Manson Pairing.

IMO Manson doesn’t get as much credit out there as he should, and Lindholm is very nearly an Elite Defenceman already.

Earlier this year I had done some “advance scouting” of a few teams, specifically trying to look for Defensive Zone tendencies and systems. I watched the Ducks 6.5 games (plus the Oilers ones).
Manson & Lindholm were very very good plus they can move the puck up to the offensive transition pretty well. Manson playing that chippy game that so many ducks play, and Lindholm isn’t shy to get in some stick work battles as well.

In Game 2 after the Oilers scored early, McLellan played that matchup game with McDavid I was hoping for. Moving Connor all around. Looking to get him away from Kesler but the key should also be to get McDavid ice time versus the 3rd pair. Regardless of who is on the 3rd pair tonight Holzer/Theodore/Bieksa/ Montour all of them have defensive lapses that McDavid can expose.

Game 2 it looked like the entire Oilers team ran out of energy, aside from Talbot.

Manson is the goods. If Bieksa doesn’t waive his NMC I predict Anaheim will trade or expose Vatanen and protect Manson. If they don’t then Edmonton should try and trade for Manson pre draft. If Vegas selects him no way they are letting him go.

Woodguy v2.0

LT,

Imma gonna slice your WOWY even further here:

All of these are 97’s CF% vs.:

Getzlaf with Lindholm 30.8%
Getzlaf without Lindholm 36.4%

Kesler with Lindholm 41.2%
Kesler without Lindholm 52.6%

So it looks like the first order of the day it to keep 97 away from Getzlaf and if at all possible Lindholm as well.

I liked how McLellan started the game double shifting 97 with 67-42. They got some looks against the 3rd pairing and those two can skate with 97

I’d go there often this game, at least twice a period.

GOILERS!!!

*clap,clap*

Pouzar

Yeah Ok Simon.
We’ll be re-visiting that one.

Stud Muffin

Good god is Simon ever looking for attention.

npanciroli

Johnny,

Nice breakdown, thanks for this.

I would move Slepyshev to line 2 and see is he can spark some offence there. Eberle can play with Pouliot and DD. Maybe the softer minutes gets him going as well.

Pouzar

Run to Linden and offer package for Tanev. They are going full rebuild.

Pouzar

Lowetide: With that in mind, I will delete outrageous claims beginning now.

The earth is flat and JDi is Gene Principe.

CapeBretonOilers

wouldn’t it make sense with Caggula not being 100 % to sub in a centre who can win a draw — jar jar- for size .. lander for pk and faceoffs.. even Hendricks with his size and faceoff ability –IF he can stay out of the box and keep up with the play .

Admiral Ackbar

Pouzar: The earth is flat and JDi is Gene Principe.

Amazing!!! ^^^^^

Admiral Ackbar

CapeBretonOilers:
wouldn’t it make sense with Caggula not being 100 % to sub in a centre who can win a draw — jar jar- for size .. lander for pk and faceoffs.. even Hendrickswith his size and faceoff ability –IF he can stay out of the box and keep up with the play.

Is he not 100%?

I still couldn’t figure out how he hurt a leg after that spill. I figured head/shoulder was somehow the injury. If he can’t wheel, you’re completely right – a C who can win face offs. Juju has a quality mean streak in him.

Feed him a bowl of blood & unleash him on the ducks.

CapeBretonOilers

Admiral Ackbar,

I think he is listed as probable — but that was a bad spill — I know coaches are reluctant to change a lineup after win(s) – so I just see it as an opportunity to add some size and faceoff acumen to the lineup ..

Mattaklap

Lowetide:

“With that in mind, I will delete outrageous claims beginning now.

The Merovingian dynasty originated with a sea monster coupling with an Atlantian refugee.

N64

Lowetide: I said outrageous.Statements of fact do not qualify.

Taylor Hall is a Devil.
The number 6 was drawn 3 times last night.
Coincidence?

Chachi

Lowetide:

With that in mind, I will delete outrageous claims beginning now.

Some people DO expect the Spanish Inquisition!

Kraz

Any oilers fans in Kelowna watching the game? Or know of the best place to watch it?

supernova

who: Manson is the goods. If Bieksa doesn’t waive his NMC I predict Anaheim will trade or expose Vatanen and protect Manson. If they don’t then Edmonton should try and trade for Manson pre draft. If Vegas selects him no way they are letting him go.

Agreed.

I think Vatanen gets moved anyway

Brantford Boy

I hope Lucic watched the video of him taking the puck to the blue line in an attempt to get a shot (Game #1) and then basically the same play with a smaller circle from behind the net (Game #2) both ended in terrible giveaways creating Grade A scoring chances the other way. Simplify and get that shot in or cycle back.

I’m glad Drake is back in (after seeing him staple Getzlaf to the boards), hopefully he’s not banged up too much. My vote was for Hendricks to get the call… a sweat, blood, and tears, locker room, team guy that can take faceoffs and play 9 minutes a night while hitting everything. He’s deserved it, honestly, on merit alone.

Can someone tell JP to stop licking his snot with his nose, at least off camera… how can that become a tasty habit?

Go Oilers, let’s get this done!

Chachi

Kraz:
Any oilers fans in Kelowna watching the game? Or know of the best place to watch it?

If the Oilers win tonight the best place to watch the game in Kelowna would be on repeat for 48 hours blasted out at a volume of “11” within earshot of wherever Ryan Getzlaf happens to be.

Mattaklap

LT sayeth:

“The great mystery for me, in hockey terms, is goaltending. It’s like the final frontier (outer space times the deep blue sea) and even after all of these years my analysis of goalies ranges from ‘what a save!’ to ‘why didn’t he make the save?’ and I doubt there is much progression to come.”

I was thinking this yesterday watching Holtby in net for the Capitals; perhaps the best goaler in the league, but sometimes a team just finds spots even he can’t cover. From the goaler’s perspective, the great mystery may be the shooters themselves. Kessel’s 3-1 goal was unbelievable that way, as from the angle behind the net (NBC) there looked to be absolutely no space for pucks. To me, every successful goaltender must be a zen master or a Lebowski (they may be the same thing) to be able to suffer such an indignity from Fate and carry on like water over stone.

Oilin4

I think Lowetide has set today up to be the most ridiculous conversation ever.

N64

Chachi: If the Oilers win tonight the best place to watch the game in Kelowna would be on repeat for 48 hours blasted out at a volume of “11” within earshot of wherever Ryan Getzlaf happens to be.

Or better yet at 97 decibels.

smellyglove

Very strange.

It’s almost like there are two NHLs. One for the teams that make the second round of the playoffs and one for the bottom 10 of the league. Or, if you prefer – playoff and non-playoff teams.

There was a draft lottery last night? Oh I guess there was. The only thing I know about this year’s draft class is that it’s not heralded to have any or many elite players, and that Nolan Patrick, a centre with less than stunning offensive totals, is slated to go #1 OV. Looking at the fan base boards and social media for the teams in the bottom five, lots of prognostication and speculation over who to take and who will be taken. Me, thinking, nothing to get excited about – it’ll be years before those kids make an impact on those teams, if ever. Well – back to NHL hockey – the playoffs.

Only a year ago the Oilers fan base was stuck in that rut for a decade. Nothing to hope or cheer for, except an incessant microscope and false projections over teenagers breaking in to the league. It’s amazing what winning, first making the playoffs and then plowing through round 2, does for one’s pysche and perspective! I could give a #%$ about the draft now (half kidding – we need value contracts and offensive forwards something fierce).

And for those teams drafting top five? It’s a looonnngg road. Possibly with no payoff in sight.

Chachi

N64: Or better yet at 97 decibels.

Whatever will make his ears bleed and his balls shrivel.

OF17

Brantford Boy,

Hendricks is too slow to get it done anymore. He knows what to do and is willing, but he doesn’t have the legs. Would much rather have Lander or Khaira sub in if needed.

Pouzar

Thank Gord for the early start today too. Needed a Russell Reset.

Gret99zky

Lowetide:

With that in mind, I will delete outrageous claims beginning now.

The next Reasonable Expectation series will feature music from The Beatles and/or Led Zeppelin.

dustrock

Pouzar:
Thank Gord for the early start today too. Needed a Russell Reset.

You ain’t kidding.

slopitch

The more I think about the more I think Reinhardt gets moved pre expansion. He’s prob gone and Chai paid in full. He’ll want to recover asset value. Key positions to upgrade are 3C and 2RHD. This is a good team already! Go Oilers! 3-0 feels so much better than 2-1. One more go Oilers!

Dino

Why didn’t we offer sheet Lindholm again when we had the chance? They didn’t sign the guy until after the season started and they signed him cheap.

Shane

I had a dream last night that Lander replaced the injured Caggiula. #FreeLander

Woodguy v2.0

supernova:
Sean Couterier might be available this summer.

Philly needs to re jig some things and with the big lottery win and having Filppula already there, I think a team could get Couterier easier than ever before.

I said this on twitter too, but I can’t see why they’d trade him.

They just signed him long term and they deploy him explicitly as their tough minute C.

They know what they have and Hextall is pretty bright.

If Homer was running the show then all best would be off.

dolenator

A little of topic but is anyone else glad we didn’t go after shattenkirk.

Johnny Stomper

Rumour has it the WWF are sending scouts to the game tonight.

“Whatch ya gonna do when Hulkamania runs wild on you”

Spengler

Lowetide:

With that in mind, I will delete outrageous claims beginning now.

Awwww, half the reason I’m here is for the outrageous claims!

But in all seriousness, thank you.

And Go Oilers!

Woodguy v2.0

Pouzar:
Yeah Ok Simon.
We’ll be re-visiting that one.

I missed that.

Was Simon Simple?

Woodguy v2.0

Pouzar:
Run to Linden and offer package for Tanev. They are going full rebuild.

I’m ever so in love with this idea.

LMHF#1

Tonight could be a great indication of where this team’s head is at.

If they come out rocking and rolling in response to the madhouse, the nervousness is gone and we’re cooking with gas. If they’re tentative, there’s still some distance to go.

No reason for them not to be ready to roll. They should be confident, but also wanting to atone for last game.

Anaheim really looked like it was firing everything in the second half of last game. Put them down a couple early and they’ll fall apart.

Really big opportunity tonight. Time to get crazy, loud, and give the team a little swagger if possible.

Woodguy v2.0

supernova: Agreed.

I think Vatanen gets moved anyway

Montour is eating his lunch and is much cheaper.

I honestly hope the Oilers are not in on him.

I have him in the “Barrie-lite” category.

Not enough offence to what he gives up in his own end.

Hamonic, Tanev….that’s where Peter needs to aim to make this team elite.