RE 16-17 JORDAN EBERLE: KARMA POLICE

by Lowetide

Jordan Eberle has been a consistent offensive player since arriving in Edmonton fall 2010. Per 82gp, Eberle had scored 64 points, and he had played 80+ games in two of his last three seasons. A player with that kind of consistency, in his 20’s, should be easy to project. Right? Add the fact Eberle had a chance to play with Connor McDavid and things could get interesting in a hurry. Make sense? Never happened. Eberle, perhaps the most obvious RW for 97, played only 36 percent of his 5×5 time with the Oilers best player. (Karma Police).

JORDAN EBERLE 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.76 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.47 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.8
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 2.3
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 50.0
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 2.1
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 208 shots/9.6%
  • Boxcars: 82, 20-31-51
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 75, 27-34-61 (0.813)
  • Actual 16-17: 82, 20-31-51 (0.622)
  • Source
  1. You really should gather up your RE’s and put them in a book. Think so?
  2. Sure! People love comedy! Let’s get started.
  3. What happened? When a scorer doesn’t score, first thing to check is shooting percentage. Eberle had a 14.11 percentage entering this season, so should have finished with 29 goals in a normal season based on shot total.
  4. Is he aging? As we all are. Turns 27 next week, with his best offensive seasons behind him. Still, his shooting percentage should correct in 2017-18.
  5. Anything else about his offense? He’s down about 20 seconds in power-play time per game, 41 seconds a game at even strength. Jordan Eberle is a 2line RW who gets a little more than two minutes a night on the 5×4.
  6. What does Eberle do well? Historically, score goals. Leading into this season, he averaged 28 goals per 82 games. That’s a substantial total.
  7. And this season? He shot the puck enough but they weren’t cashing as before. Eberle’s ‘dusting off the puck’ is a regular meme on the call-in radio shows, maybe that’s a factor. He does seem hesitant to let it rip, maybe he has the yips.
  8. Last year at this time, you said Eberle was going to be the man traded! I wrote last April “it is easier to replace Eberle and sign Eriksson or Okposo or Brouwer or Vanek. You can trade Hall if you know Lucic is coming (I would not do that, bet Chiarelli would love to bring Lucic here), and you could trade Nuge if you knew David Krejci was on the way. I think a lot of what we are doing is pissing in the wind, because PC will know who he has a good chance to land and we do not.Source
  9. Who is going this summer? Once you tell me, I’ll bet the other guy. My money is on Eberle going, so it’s Nuge for sure.
  10. What is the most damning thing about him? Eberle’s 5×5 scoring is going the wrong way.
  11. How bad is it? Since 2011-12, Eberle’s 5×5/60’s were 3.08, 2.31, 2.03, 1.97, 1.85 and then 1.76 in 2016-17. That’s fairly consistent erosion.
  12. That isn’t good. Eberle actually recovered in a big way, he was lagging like dial-up for the first half of the season.
  13. Who did he play a lot with? RNH (634 minutes together, Eberle 1.61/60 5×5, and 50.6 Corsi for 5×5 together) and Lucic (577 minutes together, Eberle 1.87/60 5×5, and 51.0 Corsi for 5×5 together).
  14. Not bad. For $18 million? Take the gas pipe. That line has three of my favorite Oilers, but this is not a season to trumpet for any of them. I remember being worried at the beginning of the year about Nuge-Eberle. Nothing rhymed, and the slump lasted all year.
  15. Who are his comparables now? James Neal, Logan Couture, Mike Richards, Bobby Ryan. It’s a good list, although most or all have a wider range of skills. The closest pure offensive player is probably Derek Roy, who had a fine career going through seven seasons.
  16. How many more years on the contract? Two. The Oilers have to trade a big contract by the time McDavid’s deal kicks in fall 2018. Eberle would have one year left on his contract at that point.
  17. Is he still the best righty scorer on the team? Yes, until Jesse Puljujarvi replaces him. Among RH shots, the leading scorers were Eberle (20), Mark Letestu (16), Tyler Pitlick (8), Zack Kassian (7) and Anton Slepyshev (4).
  18. How much of a threat is Jesse Puljujarvi? I don’t think that JP is a threat at all. These two men are ships that will pass in the night. By the time Peter Chiarelli finds a market for Jordan Eberle, and it could be this summer, Puljujarvi will be in the RW mix for minutes with (probably) Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian, Anton Slepyshev, Tyler Pitlick and Iiro Pakarinen. Maybe the club grabs a UFA veteran to boot.
  19. Why this song? It was going to get play in this series for a few reasons, including “maths” and “karma”. I think the song is about confusion and misunderstanding, suspect that’s a big part of what Eberle is going through at this time.
  20. Misunderstanding? I’m at a bit of a loss as to why Oilers fans are all over Eberle. He is as he has always been, with (probably) less foot speed and a hitch in his giddyup (dusting off, before shooting).
  21. People want quality! Jordan Eberle scores goals, toughest thing to do in the game.
  22. He doesn’t score that many. Since 2010 fall when he entered the NHL, Eberle has scored 165 goals, No. 24 among NHL players in that time. He is ahead of Marian Hossa, Blake Wheeler, Claude Giroux, Taylor Hall.
  23. Yeah, but he’s one dimensional. Sure, but it is an important dimension. You can’t have a roster of Eberle’s, but one first-shot scorer (at least) is required.
  24. So, what, you keep him? I think he is the one to be dealt, depending on return. The Oilers need a scoring forward (R or C, depending on Leon) and a second-pairing RHD. You can’t just say “JP  will replace Eberle’s goals” because Puljujarvi didn’t score 15 in the NHL this season. Can Caggiula play 1R and JP 2R? That’s not exactly an established murderer’s row.
  25. You’re arguing both sides now. Not at all. Let’s say the Oilers deal Jordan Eberle for Travis Hamonic this summer. Fair? That gives you a 7D of Klefbom-Larsson; Sekera-Hamonic; Nurse-Benning and Reinhart/Gryba. Your LW’s are probably Maroon-Lucic-Caggiula and your centers are McDavid-Leon-Nuge RW? Hmm. 2R could be Puljujarvi, 3R Kassian and 4R Slepyshev, but who is the 1R?
  26. Lots of great candidates! Sure. Jordan Eberle has scored 20 or more goals in five of his seven seasons, and one of the others was the lockout year. The final one was his rookie season, 18 goals.
  27. So trade Nuge? Maybe Peter Chiarelli can find a RW version of Patrick Maroon. Maybe it’s Slepyshev or Caggiula and maybe Puljujarvi puts it all to rest this fall. Expansion means fewer of those value contracts out there in August and September, and the Oilers are going to be in win mode at that time. It’s a tough decision, despite Eberle’s flaws.
  28. Make a prediction! I think the Oilers will trade Eberle for a C or RHD and then add the other piece via trade or free agency. I’ll use Hamonic as the defenseman example (may not be him) and Casey Cizikas as the center example (may not be him) just for fun.
  29. So what do the lines look like? Possibly Maroon-McDavid-Caggiula; Lucic-Draisiatil-Puljujarvi; Cizikas-Nuge-Slepyshev; Khaira-Letestu-Kassian. Then you could move Cizikas over to center if Leon is required at RW.
  30. What are the odds of Eberle returning? Less than 50 percent, in my opinion.
  31. Is there anything that can turn it around? Of course. If Eberle scores some big goals in the playoffs (tomorrow night?) his value will once again be established. He had a helluva run to the end of the season, and was very helpful in the period beginning in late March when the Flames caught Edmonton for third in the Pacific Division. He caught fire from that point on and delivered down the stretch.

 

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Admiral Ackbar

Stelio Kontos,

You do see the irony of your reductionist vitriol making you seem as ignorant as the ignorance you’re demonizing. Then again, it must be tough to see anything from all the way up there.

Might I suggest another hiatus? I’m certainly not interested in reading how better you think you are than the average man – behaviour that contradicts the beatifuful sense of community that Edmonton has. I see that higher than thou attitude daily here in Victoria. It’s sickening.

GOILERS.
Go Lowetide. You are my Stan Weir.

CrazyCoach

Nate780: for the same reason MTL brought in Radulov, good player and people change, and there’s not risk in a 1 year deal

You do know he hasn’t played in 3-4 seasons in the NHL? Like dog years, unless your last name is Jagr, that’s a lot of time.

I would offer Kovy a one year deal, league minimum, and that is it. Prove to this organization that you want to be here and understand you are not top dog here and everything you get here is earned.

If you can’t agree to those terms, don’t bother signing and wasting my time.

Spoils

The three line attack worked great for the pens last year and it feels like right oil to fry these ducks in.

Tomorrow, I will don my Nugent-Hopkins jersey and attend my fifth game of the run. To my eye the Oilers are the better team. Manage the forecheck and skate.

The dream? Nuge and Ebs join the parade of Oilers depth lighting the lamp.

5-2 win.

GOil!

leadfarmer

godot10: If you had a choice to build a team around, would you choose Hampus Lindholm or Matt Murray. You would choose the young #1D.

I’ve been a huge fan of Lindholm for a while. It really depends on the year. Sometimes the world is flush with good goalies and sometimes especially when you really need one you can’t find one. Life is so much easier when you can find both. If someone were to pick one or the other I would not argue against their decision.

Scungilli Slushy

Pouzar:
Eberle sucks and Nurse is “still not good”. Awesome thread indeed. See y’all tomorrow.

Intolerance of others points of view is a source of a lot of problems here and in the unimportant world outside of Lowetide. It is possible to hear other people and not condone their point of view. Reading it doesn’t mean you accept it. I have to challenge myself on this point fairly often. If you are looking for a consensus of what seems obvious the world will be a hard place to live. We are not Borg, resistance is normal.

Everyone chokes on having opinions rammed down their throat.

Pablotypus

Or you could compare him to Skinner who is likely suffering from the same problem of being run over like an Armadillo in Texas once too often.

We’ve learned a few things in Oilerville: 1) you need a goalie 2) you need defence 3) you need centers 4) wingers are a dime a dozen. IN THAT !@&!!$% order. Personally, I still like Eberle a lot, but that price tag is a huge problem with Draisaitl showing his true colors and I’d rather go forward with the ability to sign Russel, who like him or hate him, has proven himself to be far more valuable to the team than Ebs at a far lower price tag.

It ain’t rocket science and it adds up to thinking wishfully that good old Ebs finds his mojo on an Eastern team.

Scungilli Slushy

Chiarelli is a measured man, he doesn’t have to rush at this point. I’m sure he has a clear picture of what he wants and will keep working to it. If Eberle has a good finish to the playoffs it might actually increase the likelihood of a trade. Oiler players have a history getting hurt or slumping when trade winds come.

A lot of wheels in motion including how Benning is viewed, an unusual summer with the expansion draft, and current success. Maybe the power stays dry longer than we expect. Pouliot and Fayne are more likely up first.

godot10

treevojo: There is only one true intellectual.

Gone but not forgotten.

I will light a candle until he returns under a different name.

But I never went away! -).-).

#AGodotYouDontHaveToWaitFor

OF17

Bruce McCurdy,

Thanks for the kind words, Bruce. And thank you for an excellent post of your own. Eberle has had quite the long and winding story as an Oiler. It’s unlikely he wins the Cup here, but I’m glad he’s been here for these playoffs. A long time coming for Eberle to experience the home crowd in May, to feel what the ’06 crowd no doubt described. It’s not a Cup – yet – but if Eberle is dealt this summer, at least there will be a degree of closure to his arc as an Oiler. I hope for his sake he has at least a goal to remember from it.

ASkoreyko

treevojo: There is only one true intellectual.

Gone but not forgotten.

I will light a candle until he returns under a different name.

This is perfect.

Bag of Pucks

hunter1909: The only viable approach would be to take the Lowe+MacT years and either go for the “Slapshot” comedy angle, or else it’s a musical.

Wasn’t the plot of the ‘The Producers’ that they intentionally set out to make a play that would lose money?

Intentionally losing. Suddenly the Lowe/MacT years start to make sense….

hunter1909

Side: And why is the “Austin’s” a bad nickname? Every team has nick names for their line ups. Isn’t this in reference to the 6 million dollar man, Steve Austin? I really don’t see why this is something worth getting upset over…

It’s not intellectual!

Thanks to enlightened post-patriarchy men, hockey has been deigned fit for drinking fine wines over.

How these types are dealing with Lucic, Kassian and Maroon currently gooning their way through the Pacific Division is another matter. Doublethink helps a lot.

hunter1909

CrazyCoach,

for the same reason MTL brought in Radulov, good player and people change, and there’s not risk in a 1 year deal

Radulov lol.

Montreal are a disfunctioning golfing, patio-ready club at present. Radulov is something akin to Lowe’s idea to bring Hossa in for $100 million or whatever it was.

Chachi

treevojo: Nope.

Not yet.

It will be obvious.

He would never make the mistake of bragging about superior intellect while shitting the bed with grammar.

This is true.

treevojo

Jethro Tull: Hahaha, i told you he’d be back!

Nope.

Not yet.

It will be obvious.

He would never make the mistake of bragging about superior intellect while shitting the bed with grammar.

RENNAVATE

The Oilers are on the eve of GAME SEVEN IN THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS. Just one season after finishing 29th out of 30 teams.

Let’s repeat the above over and over and over and ove

Jethro Tull

Stelio Kontos:
I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

Hahaha, i told you he’d be back!

Material Elvis

Stelio Kontos:
I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

Maybe time to take another long break, exulted one.

Chachi

treevojo: There is only one true intellectual.

Gone but not forgotten.

I will light a candle until he returns under a different name.

HA!

treevojo

Stelio Kontos:
I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

There is only one true intellectual.

Gone but not forgotten.

I will light a candle until he returns under a different name.

Side

Stelio Kontos:
I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

Please name one fan base that doesn’t have idiot fans. Then please provide a link to the forum where they talk about their favorite team.

And why is the “Austin’s” a bad nickname? Every team has nick names for their line ups. Isn’t this in reference to the 6 million dollar man, Steve Austin? I really don’t see why this is something worth getting upset over…

hunter1909

Bag of Pucks: Ference carried the water for Eakins, who was clearly busy chopping wood.

Ference was like if Russell were to win the cup this season before signing back with the Flames on a 5 year 20 million dollar contract, while being made captain by the new head coach hoping to find others to scapegoat in advance.

Chachi

Stelio Kontos:
I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

Wow. I don’t disagree with everything you have written, but good luck with the response to this. You might also want to go back and fix the mistakes in grammar you made in the post about how you are an intellectual slumming it with rig pigs. Also, pretty sure “Austins” originated with people you would probably identify as “intellectuals”.

Showerhead

Bruce McCurdy,

This was a nice post. Thank you for taking the time!

hunter1909

Stelio Kontos:
I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

You poor man.

Look at the bright side: Eventually Disney will release a pathogen into the drinking water which will eliminate 90% of the deplorable types you allude to.

hunter1909

Bag of Pucks: They really should make a movie.

The only viable approach would be to take the Lowe+MacT years and either go for the “Slapshot” comedy angle, or else it’s a musical.

Gayfish

I’m a long time poster, and only just got back because of playoffs. Been here since 09 under different names. I’m starting to remember why I was gone so long. The intellectual though here has diminished substantially, just like at ON. There is no rationality, just hyperbole. I hate remembering that this is a city filled with rig pig idiots who embarrass the rest of us. I hate reducing it down to that, but you see it every time you go out. Why democracy sucks, always an 2 idiots to cancel out every intellectual.

I was at the watch party for game 5, and I realized just how stupid many oiler fans are. When they affirmed the call on the ice for the third goal, the vast majority of people stood up and cheered. Not booed, not jeered, legit cheered. My friends and I could not for the life of us understand why. Guessing they didn’t understand the statement, idk, but it was embarrassing. That was the focal point of the night, but the amount of stupidity flying around was absurd.

That and the stupid sayings like “Austins.” It was cute the first time, now you just sound like a loser.

Doug McLachlan

Dallas Stars‏Verified account @DallasStars Following More

#Stars acquire goaltender Ben Bishop from the Kings in exchange for Montreal’s fourth round pick in the 2017 NHL Draft.

***

Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun · 22m22 minutes ago More

The Dallas Stars and Ben Bishop’s camp haven’t chatted contract yet but plan on doing so in the next few days.

***

Bob McKenzie‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie · 10m10 minutes ago More

CGY, as it was last summer, was in on trade talks to get Ben Bishop’s rights before LA ultimately dealt him to DAL.

***

We are concerned with finding a way to dump a 20 goal man who is overpriced. Dallas still has Kari Lehtonen for $5.9M next year and Anttii Niemi for $4.5M next year. Our problems don’t seem so bad.

Bruce McCurdy

OF17:
Even though I feel it’s time, it would be tough to see Eberle go. He’s been with this organization since 2008. He’s not even a rebuild piece. He’s a pre-rebuild piece.

That first training camp roster included names like Dwayne Roloson, Steve Staios, Fernando Pisani, Ethan Moreau, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky. Eberle only played games with Horcoff and Hemsky, but that was the Oilers team he was trying to make. The last legs of the 2000s core.

When Eberle goes, the last Oiler who experienced that team will be gone. No matter how I feel about the merits of the trade, it will be a bit solemn to see a guy leave after so long with this organization.

Excellent post. This old-school fan always has some room for sentiment, out of fashion as that may be in the schizoid 21st Century. Even if in fact “it’s time”.

Eberle’s decade goes back to 2007 when the (ahem) Anaheim Ducks won the Cup, thus triggering the infamous Fifth Asset of the Chris Pronger trade. Call it the Guilty Remnant of that trade, but it turned out to be the best of the Five.

Timeline since then:

2008: After Ducks slide back in the standings a bit, Oilers pick Eberle 22nd overall. That spring he had won the U-18 (with Taylor Hall) and was nicely on the radar already.

2008-10: Oilers resist temptation to put teenaged Eberle on the big club two years in a row, the patient route espoused by so many. He ripped it up in junior, ripped up World Junior in two different tourneys, ripped it up in two late-season trials with OKC, and even played in the World Seniors the second year, winning Player of the Game honours in his debut. Wins World Junior MVP & CHL Player of the Year awards among many other accolades.

2010-11: Made Oilers right out of camp his first year as a pro, scored brilliantly in his NHL debut, and went on to lead the team in scoring on a bargain ELC.

2011-12: Made the mistake of having a career year too early, shooting the lights out & raising expectations with 34 goals and 76 points.

2012: Signed extension against which future production would be measured. Absolutely ripped up the AHL during the lockout, way more than Hall or RNH.

2013-17: A period that spans five seasons despite appearances (Bettman Math strikes again), none of them “career years” like Year 2 — in fact chosen deliberately to Avoid that career year and measure his “true” level — but consistent enough production to rank 28th in the entire league in goals and 34th in points over that half-decade span.
Returns again and again to World Championships before finally winning gold in 2015.

2017: Finally makes playoffs and struggles to find the range.

A whole lot of bet-covering in that decade, even as his club teams weren’t generally successful. Enough there that I for one refuse to join the chorus of people including some MSM who would question his character.

I do note the declining production as a legit concern; offensive players often peak young, and NHL goalies do learn about tendencies (when was the last time you saw Eberle score high short-side on a backhand from below the left faceoff circle? Used to happen periodically). That said, he’s gone from first-line-first-PP usage to second-second, or (at the moment) third-second. How much his (lack of) production has powered his demotion and how much of that is vice versa is a loaded question. But for sure, extended scoring droughts of the ~10 game type have become far too common, regardless of what line Eberle is on he should score some. It’s a bit of a mystery, frankly.

Material Elvis

Bling:
Eberle’s percentile rank for EV scoring for forwards who played at least 750 minutes: 73rd.

Here is RNH: 38th
Here is Lucic: 18th (gulp)

I do not consider this to have been a bad year for Jordan Eberle. He is not a river pusher, and that’s what he was being asked to do this year.

Not a bad job by him, all things considered.

There is no denying that Lucic was brutal for the first 60 games of the season. His last 20 were better, and more importantly, he has been effective in the playoffs. Contrast that with Ebs who also started cold, but got better in January and finished strong. I thought his first playoff game against SJ was a strong one — he was forechecking like a demon. But after that he faded badly and hasn’t recovered. There is another game tomorrow so there is always a chance for redemption.

Showerhead

Spoils,

1) Overall, completely agree with the bolded part.

2) With you re: Nuge, don’t expect Eberle cross the 70 point threshold anytime too immediate. But I guess your point is still valid if he hits 60.

3) The trouble with Edmonton’s ability to diagnose players might be related to just how big of a tire fire their roster has been. It’s damn near impossible to identify a top-4 d-man when you drown him with top pairing minutes against tough opposition, for example. It’s tough to pick out a valuable 4th line checking forward out of a bottom six that gets its teeth kicked in all the time.

I am critical of many decisions the Oilers have made over the years (and will continue to be, both positively and negatively) but can’t help but acknowledge they were already in a shite spot to evaluate talent just by being so bloody brutal for a while there. Tough to figure out how well a guy can swim when you’ve strapped an extra 50 lbs to his back and asked him to tread water.

Doug McLachlan

treevojo: Until tomorrow.

I really, really want this to be the case.

su_dhillon

Oilers fans remind me so much of my clients.”Sell Low, Buy High!”

Half my meetings are spent discussing why that s a bad strategy.

I have a feeling we are going to see a summer where a number of assets move out of town at really low returns and the media and most fans will say that it’s fine because thats what the Hall deal was and Oilers went on deep run afterwards.

McDavid definitly provides a built in margin of safety for the GM but at some point, value will matter.

Eberle hasn’t been great this series but there were games they were really good and got nothing to show for it. Then when you have a bad stretch , well it just looks all bad.

here’s hoping Nuge and Eberle play a big role in a Game 7 win and actually put something on the board. if it is their last stretch hope they have a fun playoff moment.

JD_Wry

Bag of Pucks: Ference carried the water for Eakins, who was clearly busy chopping wood.

Chop wood, carry water, kale chip.

Doug McLachlan

dustrock,

Well here is the list of forwards making in excess of $5.8 sorted by goals this season – an admittedly down year for Eberle.

Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins NMC UFA 29 C 75 44 45 89 17
19:52
– – – – – $10,900,000 $8,700,000
2. Vladimir Tarasenko St. Louis Blues UFA 25 RW 82 39 36 75 -1
18:28
– – – – – $8,000,000 $7,500,000
3. Patrick Kane Chicago Blackhawks NMC UFA 28 RW, C 82 34 55 89 11
21:23
– – – – – $13,800,000 $10,500,000
4. Alex Ovechkin Washington Capitals M-NTC UFA 31 LW, RW 82 33 36 69 6
18:21
– – – – – $10,000,000 $9,538,462
5. Evgeni Malkin Pittsburgh Penguins NMC UFA 30 C, RW 62 33 39 72 18
18:37
– – – – – $9,500,000 $9,500,000
6. Mark Scheifele Winnipeg Jets UFA 24 C 79 32 50 82 18
20:33
– – – – – $5,000,000 $6,125,000
7. Filip Forsberg Nashville Predators UFA 22 C, RW 82 31 27 58 -4
18:31
– – – – – $6,000,000 $6,000,000
8. Joe Pavelski San Jose Sharks M-NTC UFA 32 C, RW 81 29 39 68 11
19:07
– – – – – $6,000,000 $6,000,000
9. Patrick Marleau San Jose Sharks NMC UFA 37 LW, C 82 27 19 46 4
17:09
– – – – – $6,500,000 $6,666,667
10. Sean Monahan Calgary Flames UFA 22 C 82 27 31 58 -1
17:34
– – – – – $6,500,000 $6,375,000
11. Logan Couture San Jose Sharks M-NTC UFA 28 C, LW 73 25 27 52 11
17:36
– – – – – $6,000,000 $6,000,000
12. Brandon Saad Columbus Blue Jackets UFA 24 LW, RW 82 24 29 53 23
17:01
– – – – – $5,750,000 $6,000,000
13. Phil Kessel Pittsburgh Penguins M-NTC, NMC UFA 29 RW 82 23 47 70 3
17:56
– – – – – $9,000,000 $8,000,000
14. Nicklas Backstrom Washington Capitals M-NTC UFA 29 C 82 23 63 86 17
18:15
– – – – – $7,000,000 $6,700,000
15. Milan Lucic Edmonton Oilers NMC UFA 28 LW 82 23 27 50 -3
17:09
– – – – – $8,000,000 $6,000,000
16. Rick Nash New York Rangers M-NTC, NMC UFA 32 LW, RW 67 23 15 38 9
16:27
– – – – – $8,000,000 $7,800,000
17. David Krejci Boston Bruins NMC UFA 31 C 82 23 31 54 -12
18:15
– – – – – $7,250,000 $7,250,000
18. Ryan Kesler Anaheim Ducks NMC UFA 32 C, RW 82 22 36 58 8
21:18
– – – – – $7,875,000 $6,875,000
19. Patrice Bergeron Boston Bruins NMC UFA 31 C 79 21 32 53 12
19:25
– – – – – $8,750,000 $6,875,000
20. Jonathan Toews Chicago Blackhawks NMC UFA 29 C 72 21 37 58 7
20:09
– – – – – $13,800,000 $10,500,000
21. Aleksander Barkov Florida Panthers UFA 21 C 61 21 31 52 13
19:24
– – – – – $4,500,000 $5,900,000
22. Jordan Eberle Edmonton Oilers UFA 26 RW 82 20 31 51 3
16:46
– – – – – $6,000,000 $6,000,000
23. Jakub Voracek Philadelphia Flyers UFA 27 RW 82 20 41 61 -24
19:05
– – – – – $10,000,000 $8,250,000
24. Taylor Hall New Jersey Devils UFA 25 LW, C 72 20 33 53 -9
19:19
– – – – – $6,000,000 $6,000,000
25. Ryan O’Reilly Buffalo Sabres UFA 26 C, LW, RW 72 20 35 55 -1
21:27
– – – – – $11,000,000 $7,500,000
26. Kyle Okposo Buffalo Sabres NMC UFA 29 RW 65 19 26 45 -7
18:58
– – – – – $8,000,000 $6,000,000
27. Corey Perry Anaheim Ducks NMC UFA 31 RW 82 19 34 53 2
17:42
– – – – – $10,000,000 $8,625,000
28. Zach Parise Minnesota Wild NMC UFA 32 LW 69 19 23 42 -3
17:25
– – – – – $9,000,000 $7,538,462
29. Matt Duchene Colorado Avalanche UFA 26 C, LW 77 18 23 41 -34
18:18
– – – – – $6,000,000 $6,000,000
30. Mikko Koivu Minnesota Wild NMC UFA 34 C 80 18 40 58 27
19:06
– – – – – $5,400,000 $6,750,000
31. Johnny Gaudreau Calgary Flames UFA 23 LW 72 18 43 61 -7
18:29
– – – – – $6,750,000 $6,750,000
32. Paul Stastny St. Louis Blues NTC UFA 31 C 66 18 22 40 4
19:08
– – – – – $7,000,000 $7,000,000
33. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Edmonton Oilers UFA 24 C 82 18 25 43 -10
17:41
– – – – – $6,000,000 $6,000,000
34. Derek Stepan New York Rangers UFA 26 C 81 17 38 55 19
18:36
– – – – – $8,000,000 $6,500,000
35. David Backes Boston Bruins NMC UFA 33 C, RW 74 17 21 38 2
17:07
– – – – – $8,000,000 $6,000,000
36. Henrik Zetterberg Detroit Red Wings UFA 36 LW, C 82 17 51 68 15
19:43
– – – – – $7,500,000 $6,083,333
37. Jordan Staal Carolina Hurricanes NMC UFA 28 C, LW 75 16 29 45 -1
18:39
– – – – – $6,000,000 $6,000,000
38. Alexander Steen St. Louis Blues NTC UFA 33 LW, C 76 16 35 51 -2
19:18
– – – – – $6,500,000 $5,800,000
39. Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche UFA 21 C, RW 82 16 37 53 -14
19:56
– – – – – $5,000,000 $6,300,000
40. Jason Spezza Dallas Stars M-NTC, NMC UFA 33 C 68 15 35 50 -18
16:10
– – – – – $7,500,000 $7,500,000
41. Ryan Getzlaf Anaheim Ducks NMC UFA 31 C 74 15 58 73 7
21:04
– – – – – $9,250,000 $8,250,000
42. Henrik Sedin Vancouver Canucks NMC UFA 36 C 82 15 36 51 -27
19:02
– – – – – $7,000,000 $7,000,000
43. Daniel Sedin Vancouver Canucks NMC UFA 36 LW 82 15 29 44 -16
18:23
– – – – – $7,000,000 $7,000,000
44. Claude Giroux Philadelphia Flyers NMC UFA 29 C, RW 82 14 44 58 -15
19:07
– – – – – $9,000,000 $8,275,000
45. Dustin Brown Los Angeles Kings M-NTC UFA 32 RW, LW 80 14 22 36 -4
16:00
– – – – – $7,000,000 $5,875,000
46. Bobby Ryan Ottawa Senators M-NTC, NMC UFA 30 RW, LW 62 13 12 25 -3
15:32
– – – – – $7,000,000 $7,250,000
47. Brandon Dubinsky Columbus Blue Jackets NMC UFA 31 C, LW 80 12 29 41 16
17:53
– – – – – $5,850,000 $5,850,000
48. Anze Kopitar Los Angeles Kings NMC UFA 29 C 76 12 40 52 -10
20:45
– – – – – $14,000,000 $10,000,000
49. Loui Eriksson Vancouver Canucks NMC UFA 31 RW, LW 65 11 13 24 -9
18:40
– – – – – $8,000,000 $6,000,000
50. Tomas Plekanec Montreal Canadiens UFA 34 C 78 10 18 28 10
16:49
– – – – – $7,000,000 $6,000,000
51. Steven Stamkos Tampa Bay Lightning NMC UFA 27 C 17 9 11 20 3
17:52
– – – – – $9,500,000 $8,500,000
52. Patrick Sharp Dallas Stars M-NTC, NMC UFA 35 LW, C 48 8 10 18 -22
15:56
– – – – – $5,000,000 $5,900,000
53. Joe Thornton San Jose Sharks NMC UFA 37 C 79 7 43 50 7
18:03
– – – – – $6,750,000 $6,750,000
54. Ryan Callahan Tampa Bay Lightning NMC UFA 32 RW 18 2 2 4 -4
14:08
– – – – – $6,500,000 $5,800,000

How many on this list would you rather have than Eberle? Several to be sure but he’s not the worst bargain on this list – by a long shot.

Spoils

Schultz, Dubnyk, Petry, Yakupov, Eberle, Nuge…

these are all troubled players. two things the oilers need to get SOOOOO much better at.

1) finding a way to identify problems early so they can move players when they have more value.
2) find a way to fix players that can be fixed (dubnyk? schultz?)

we’ve sold at the absolute bottom for too many assets! That is just nutzo bad.

Nuge just turned 24. when he gets man strength and has a renaissance I’d really like him to be on our team.

Eberle going to the rangers in return for ye ol bag of pucks, and kicking out a +30g +70p year? painful.

diagnose it early. sell higher. or FIX IT.

Professor Q

Captain’s Log:
Kovachuk is a left winger but a right shot. No offense to Letestu but how good would the Oilers PP be with Ilya taking passes from Connor?

It’d be like Ovechkin, too. Or DeBrincat… :p ha!

khildahl

Bag of Pucks,

Jacques wasn’t even the worst of it. Some of his other lowlights include calling Pisani lazy in the press, Barbara-Ann Scott, and publically lamenting that the captain fought Iginla fairly instead of “doing dirty for dirty”.

Material Elvis

Captain’s Log:
Kovachuk is a left winger but a right shot. No offense to Letestu but how good would the Oilers PP be with Ilya taking passes from Connor?

Kovalchuk and Benning on the point. Letestu, McD, Draisaitl up front.

treevojo

Kinger_Oil.redux:
dustrock,

he doesn’t help us by scoring when the going gets tough.

Until tomorrow.

Nate780

CrazyCoach,

for the same reason MTL brought in Radulov, good player and people change, and there’s not risk in a 1 year deal

Bag of Pucks

hunter1909: …with his trusty sidekick thecaptainandrewference.

Ference carried the water for Eakins, who was clearly busy chopping wood.

Kinger_Oil.redux

dustrock,

– that was me: 4 goals in last 2 games against the nucks. 4 goals against Colorado 4 against Calgary 0nly 1 goal against a WC contender: Nashville

– I didn’t want to bring it up but those goals are all replaceable. Ebs is going to score goals but we beat all those teams without him and he doesn’t help us by scoring when the going gets tough.

Bag of Pucks

khildahl: I know the Quinn year was a long time ago and everyone has done their damnedest to forget every moment of it, but for my money, he made Eakins look almost competent in comparison.

Damn it, you’ve got me there. Quinn put JF Jacques on the first line for a spell. The horror!!!

MacT fired Krueger over Skype.

Burnett vs Corson.

Peter Puck sells the GOAT.

Man, we’ve had the highest of the highs and the lowest of the lows with this franchise. They really should make a movie.

OF17

Even though I feel it’s time, it would be tough to see Eberle go. He’s been with this organization since 2008. He’s not even a rebuild piece. He’s a pre-rebuild piece.

That first training camp roster included names like Dwayne Roloson, Steve Staios, Fernando Pisani, Ethan Moreau, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky. Eberle only played games with Horcoff and Hemsky, but that was the Oilers team he was trying to make. The last legs of the 2000s core.

When Eberle goes, the last Oiler who experienced that team will be gone. No matter how I feel about the merits of the trade, it will be a bit solemn to see a guy leave after so long with this organization.

khildahl

Bag of Pucks: Truth. Eakins was the absolute nadir. You had to look straight up to see hell when ‘The Mad Bicyclist’ was on the job.

I know the Quinn year was a long time ago and everyone has done their damnedest to forget every moment of it, but for my money, he made Eakins look almost competent in comparison.

Bling

Eberle’s percentile rank for EV scoring for forwards who played at least 750 minutes: 73rd.

Here is RNH: 38th
Here is Lucic: 18th (gulp)

I do not consider this to have been a bad year for Jordan Eberle. He is not a river pusher, and that’s what he was being asked to do this year.

Not a bad job by him, all things considered.

Material Elvis

Bag of Pucks: No, I’ll have to track those down as that definitely correlates with what I’m seeing in my mind’s eye now (i.e. Eberle as perimeter player).

I wonder how often this type of thing is related to injury as well. A smaller player challenges himself to go to the hard areas, gets absolutely lit up for a significant injury as a result, and rapidly loses his taste for that – especially when he’s already set with the lifetime contract. By my eye, Ebs has not been the same player since that spate of injuries he had.

I think it is a major mental hurdle, but one that can be overcome. Take Crosby for example. He takes a viscous cross check to the face and is back two games later, going to the tough areas like nothing happened. Erik Karlsson played on a broken foot and continued to produce. Some players are relentless and others are more passive. I don’t think that Eberle forgot how to play — he has skill and hockey smarts. He just has to work on the mental aspect of his game to be successful. Of course, a bit of luck would sure be nice for him right about now

northof51

leadfarmer:
leadfarmer,

I guess i should expand.Murray had a GSAA of +23 this year putting him squarely between Holtby and Price and 19 points higher than Fleury.But sure.He just squeezes into the first round in a redraft.

In case you were wondering Bob and Talbot were the only ones higher and if advanced stats isnt your thing being in a league of Holtby, Bobrovsky, Talbot and Price is pretty elite company.

Vasilevsky was league average at less than +1

Admittedly I hadn’t put as much stock in Murray as I should have, but I was more focused on the D aspect of that draft. Not sure where to put the goalers, but yes, Murray should certainly be above Vasilevsky and Andersen.

Like many others I think (read: know) goalers are voodoo and would take D before them, if possible.

hunter1909

Bag of Pucks: Truth. Eakins was the absolute nadir. You had to look straight up to see hell when ‘The Mad Bicyclist’ was on the job.

…with his trusty sidekick thecaptainandrewference.