LAZY, CRAZY HAZY DAYS OF SUMMER?

by Lowetide

Lots of talk about small moves by Peter Chiarelli this summer, likely due to his media avail on Tuesday. PC talked a lot about seeing this group grow and about progress made together. It sounds great, but new talent is the lifeblood of an organization and change is inevitable. Add legit cap issues on the horizon? We’re going to see action.

WHO IS LEAVING?

Matt Hendricks won’t be back, David Desharnais and Andrew Ference too. There will also be new players, or fringe players from last year playing major roles. Expect more Jujhar Khaira and there’s a chance Tyler Pitlick finally plays a full season in 2017-18.

The big item is cap restructuring. With two massive contracts on the way (Leon this year, McDavid next), we’re going to see something resembling Billy Guerin for Anson Carter and it very well could happen this summer. Change? Get used to it.

CURRENT 50-MAN (RFA’S INCLUDED)

  • The current estimate (my estimate) is 38, with all of the strikethroughs gone baby gone. I’m not certain about guys like Iiro Pakarinen, who has expansion uses but is probably at the every end of the “NHL winger” depth chart on this team.
  • The NHL blue and goaltending look set, but with the Sekera injury (and Todd McLellan’s preference for Kris Russell over Mark Fayne) we’re likely to see changes. Reinhart out (expansion draft) and Russell plus a RHD (Pysyk, Petrovic) seems likely.
  • Lots of things in play up front, including Benoit Pouliot out and Zack Kassian signing a two or three-year deal.
  • As much as Chiarelli’s avail suggested he wanted to see this group for a longer period, the cap and roster pressures won’t allow it. Adding Russell and a RHD mean change somewhere, probably on the wing.

CHIARELLI’S SUMMER LIST

  1. Get Connor McDavid signed to a long-term contract. I look every day to see if anyone with a louder voice than this blog is talking about the outer marker ($15 million per season). The Oilers negotiation with 97’s side is going to be limited, because anything below that number represents real value. I keep reading these “he’ll take $9.7 million for the good of the team” tweets and that strikes me as unreasonable. If he signs for eight years and $97 million ($12.125 million per season) that will represent a bargain contract.
  2. Get Leon Draisaitl signed to a long-term contract. I keep hoping $7 million because that’s manageable this year, but the young man kept filling the damned net! It might be $7.5 million (Bob mentioned that number yesterday) and PC will need to move some deck chairs but the team can manage it. More inexpensive wingers required!
  3. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. Everyone is thinking Griffin Reinhart and that makes a lot of sense. LV must be interested in young players who can grow with the group, meaning GR and Laurent Brossoit plus Jujhar Khaira could all be on the Golden Knights list. None of these names would be terminal for the Oilers.
  4. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster. There is no easy road here, and I remain hopeful the organization decides to hold off on buying him out if a trade can’t be made. It is in the realm of possibility that BP recovers his offense, and remember he was very effective with McDavid (and McDavid with he) not so long ago. The reality is Edmonton has to offload some of their expensive wingmen and Pouliot is the obvious choice.
  5. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen. This has now morphed into getting an entire second pairing for much of the season since the Sekera news. If the club could grab Pysyk after the expansion draft, that would be a very strong addition. Russell on a one-year deal is probably good business (Brian Campbell is out there, but would he be interested in Edmonton?) but the contract may require more seasons and you should be prepared for it.
  6. Find a bottom 6F who can help the offense. Martin Hanzal would be ideal and it does look as though a center who can win faceoffs may be the target. I will explore the forwards available (free agency and trade) tomorrow morning, seems as though we’re going to see that kind of addition in the next three months. Brian Boyle?
  7. Find a way to cover off buried contracts. Reading the tea leaves, seems Fayne is likely to play again in Bakersfield and give the team  defensive cover. Pouliot’s situation is different and the club could buy him out, but that takes on some challenges of its own.
  8. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. If the Oilers add Mark Pysyk and Brian Boyle as the major moves of summer, there will be some exits. I think we will see a more substantial move than those acquisitions and suspect an expensive contract from the forward group is heading out of town. Never trust the general manager to tell you exactly what he is thinking. I know that may be your mindset, as the Oilers have employed men who did it in the past. PC didn’t tell us his plans this week. Pretty sure.

DYLAN WELLS SIGNS!

The look of Edmonton’s goalie depth chart has changed completely since the day Peter Chiarelli took over. Back in May 2015, the signed men were Ben Scrivens, Laurent Brossoit, Tyler Bunz, Frans Tuohimaa.

Wells has had one strong OHL season (.916SP this season) and a mammoth playoff (.930SP, again this spring). He posted save percentages of .893 and .871 in his two other junior seasons, so we’ll look for him to post impressive totals in Peterborough this year before turning pro fall 2018.

I think the Oilers are close now to filling out the roster of goalies for next year. Talbot and Brossoit in the NHL, Ellis and Starrett in the AHL and perhaps a veteran Bakersfield signing to offer cover at the minor league level (Starrett could play in the ECHL for much of the season).

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JARI KURRI!

I loved watching him play. A 200-foot winger with eyes in the back of his head and supreme chem with Wayne Gretzky, I met him a few times back in the day and he was a very nice fellow. Verbal from the mean streets of Finland suggest he remains a good guy, always makes me feel good to know there are at least a few left on the planet. He was a sublime hockey player, it was a privilege to watch him play.

JESSE PLAYING AT WHC’S TODAY!

Word is he is on a feature line against the USA (with Sebastian Aho & Mika Pyörälä). Fill the net young man, prove that coach wrong and then do it again and again. No mercy. JP has been the subject of several posts on this blog over the spring, but the baffling handling by team Finland really surprises. The game is underway, updates available here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning with lots of news to discuss. 10 this morning, TSN1260 and scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult  of Hockey. Jesse Puljujarvi, Leon Draisaitl and the summer ahead for the Oilers.
  • Don Landry, CFL.ca. The CFL is gearing up, we’ll look at some of the big stories entering camp.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Will the Ottawa Senators beat Pittsburgh? Will Nashville get past Anaheim? Who wins Stanley? Plus some Oilers rumors.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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MrEd

Wingers?

MrEd

Pouzar,

I think Jari Kurri should have a eatery in the district. Indian food. Not joking.

Stud Muffin

If Connor gets the richest contract in NHL history and Draisaitl gets more than 7m Chiarelli fails the summer IMO

Pouzar

You guys are all crazy.

digger50

Glass: You don’t think the team is better with Larsson and without Hall? We’ve improved by virtually every metric. Also, look at our improved record against Pacific and Central teams. As well as our improved road record.

There were also multiple players who alluded to the fact that the room was split and was ‘cliquey’. It doesn’t appear this way anymore, I mean the team seems rather close. Check out player’s social media, how they carry themselves in interviews, how they stick up for each other during the season and playoffs, etc.

I’m interested in replying but out of time and end of the thread today. Hopefully tomorrow

treevojo

Centre of attention:

To be honest I don’t think WG is coming back. Why come back when it seems hes not wanted? Of course people like me, you, and some other more veteran posters enjoy him.

But now there are all these new people who seem to think they have as much sway over how we discuss things as the veteran posters do. Which is true, there is no hierarchy here. But damn, it would be awesome to at least get a little bit of respect and restraint when talking with those kinds of posters.

If Bruce Wayne can come back posting under another name then Woodguy sure as shit can come back as 3.0.

Of course there is a hierarchy here.

I really only started posting last summer. I have been reading here pretty much daily since before the Hall draft I think. The only thing I know for sure is the background was blue and pretty much every post began with “this is so and so”.

So just because there are new posters doesn’t mean they aren’t veteran readers.

I have learned there is nothing wrong debating with your elbows up as long as you keep from saying offensive things.

It shouldn’t be that hard.

N64

Lowetide: I love old stories too, hockey people are fabulous with story telling, fans too. The lore of the game is in stories like this one.

Here’s a local story from before my time that I thought was an exaggeration the first time I heard it retold:

http://thehockeywriters.com/50-years-ago-in-hockey-memorial-cup-final-to-continue/

stevezie

VOR,

I get the impression the answer may be before my time. Does it involve the islanders?

Centre of attention

pocession charge,

Sorry, I was not meaning to lump ALL new posters together. There are some absolute gems here and I would give anything for us to all get along and discuss things in a civil manner.

The last time this place really blew up, I was all over the threads trying to calm people down and make amends.

I really, really, really enjoy this place when its at its best.

N64: Woodguy got tired of raising his elbows when someone came charging across the ice to crosscheck him. If ya can’t ignore the high noise to signal guys best to stay away and do something more interesting than arguing at unhappy hour.

Agree. For the record (and I hate speaking for him in his absence), WoodGuy can handle disagreement.

He posts some numbers, somebody says disagrees, that’s fine.

What he can’t take is people putting words in his mouth or taunting him with their responses.

“Season Not Played” decided it was a great idea to disagree with WoodGuy on Lucic (which is absolutely fine, btw), and taunt him by sayings “Go ahead, throw some shade, post some numbers”

I mean, what are you expecting as a response when you reply to him like that?

That moment, among many others are why we can’t have nice things.

I apologize to anyone I might be offending with my opinion of why things are the way they are, and I hope I haven’t sent the wrong message on WoodGuys part.

I’ve made my fair share of dumb posts too, btw. I don’t want anyone here thinking I’m trying to be some white knight who can arbitrarily cast judgment on other peoples arguments/disagreements.

But I also like to think I learned something from those dumb mistakes on my part and I want to help others avoid those kinds of things in the future.

Anyways. There is a new thread so time to let this one die. You’re a saint for putting up with us, LT.

jtblack

WOW. I am newer to this site. I actually left a different Oilers Site because I became tired of the Negativity. Not the debate necessarily, but the constant negativity towards the Oilers in General.

I like what LT said on the radio: Something like: ” If Hall is the hill you want to die on, then so be it.” Those people will not truly enjoy the Oilers success now or for as long as they continue to be Angry. I don’t care who won the trade. I have my opinion, but it’s just that. Do you think Cam Talbot cares what we think? Connor? PC? Nobody really cares. Hall and Larsson certainly don’t care.

Pre internet you used to have to go to bar, consume a few too many drinks and then get into a debate about this player or that player. Now we are all learning how to navigate the 2017 waters. I think all internet forums should be free of bullying and harassment (I am not saying that occurred here).

This is know: LT is awesome. The write ups are great. His knowledge is extensive. And his logic and opinion are Top Shelf. I mean I don’t agree on Mark Fayne, but so be it. It’s just an opinion. The conversation for the most part is great. i just think some people get too caught up in proving how RIGHT they are.

Maybe as a Forum we need to make a peace pact. Leave the Hall trade behind. Confess or Pledge not to discuss it on this site. not sure if that is possible, but it would be great, because then we can get to the task at hand; Discussing and debating how to build a Stanley Cup Team going forward !!!!!

Props to LT: Props to all the quality Oilers Fans. Props to this site.

VOR

N64,

Yeah I do love the stories. I remember the first great hockey story I ever heard. It was at a party in 1978, drunk guy starts telling me about “the Night the Gardens ran Red”. He could really spin a yarn.

Short version, Canadiens are in Boston. Illness and suspension mean they have no enforcers, no tough guys. This is circa like 1960 and the Bruins are the broad street bullies of the day.

Two of the Bruins worst goons attack the Canadiens smallest player. It would eventually take multiple ambulances to cart the Bruins wounded off to the hospital. Story goes it took the entire Canadiens team and all the officials to stop little Henri Richard from killing multiple Bruins. At one point he was jumping up and down on one guy’s face with his skates while beating on another Bruin’s head with his stick.

I assumed the story was horse bleep but ended up pulling up old Microfiche (remember microfiche) and sure enough the story was more or less accurate.

I have wondered what on Earth possessed a drunk to back me into a corner and spend half an hour telling me a hockey story from 1960?

My wife tells me it is simple. There was no Lowetide in 1978.

rickithebear

Gollum:
Woodguy was the best.
And we have people calling him arrogant because he could actually back up his arguments with logic. I can go anywhere and read “Hall is a cancer” and “Petry is soft” posts, but I come/came here to read comments that presented something beyond opinion.
I miss Woodguy and GMoney and others like them that I could learn something from. Luckily, there are still a few left.

Wood guys arguments are flawed!
1. Corsi A has almost zero indication of Dman’s ability.
they are dependent on the Pocession and shooting abilty of Forward while not abandoning defensive play. If forward are not involved in neutral zone trap.
The only proper play is for Dmen to collapse to Edge of High danger area.

Corsi x,y it is the start of 2 stastistical paths of Dman measure.
A. Puck is released and will either hit an open are in the net
or hit the goalie. The HD affect is resultant in this process.

B. Shot Supression
Dmen can block; Force misses;
So you want elite SH/Corsi Dmen.
This is the measure that makes Russell look Elite.

When you go back thru the years.
the cup core ratio teams rise to the top.

In the 25 years.
It is often questionable occurances that derail them.
Buffalo vs Dallas
EDm vs Anahiem
1. Top 10 HD goalie
Talbot trade was arranged trade dealine 2015.

2. 3 + top 60 HD dmen
Larsson (1st comp)
1 of 6 Dmen top 60 in HDSH60; EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
Benning (3rd)
1 of 21 D top 90 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
Sekera (2nd)
Top 20 HDSH60; EVGA60
went down and affected Play

3. 5+ top 125 Forwards Top 145 in G and P
Mcdavid 30G 100P (top 2)
Draisatl 29G 77P (top 7)
Lucic 23G 50P (top 60) PvP
Eberle 20G 51P (top 70) PvP
RNH 18G 43P (top 100) PvP
Maroon 27G 42P (top 35G) (top 133P)
Letestu 16G 35P (top 135)

4. +ve Goal Dif from 3rd line

Pouliot 13gm -2
RNH 13gm -3
Letestu 13gm -4
Lucic 13gm -5
Eberle -6
it makes zero sense to run forward who achieve greater than 1.00 PPG facing 2nd-3rd comp
RNH, Eberle should not run PvP.

Give me strong EVG production from 1st-3rd comp type forwards.
D. King;
Hanzal

Glass

digger50: Well you see here we go again.

Blanket statements of opinion presented as fact.

And the saying “full stop” so I guess there is no counter.

You don’t think the team is better with Larsson and without Hall? We’ve improved by virtually every metric. Also, look at our improved record against Pacific and Central teams. As well as our improved road record.

There were also multiple players who alluded to the fact that the room was split and was ‘cliquey’. It doesn’t appear this way anymore, I mean the team seems rather close. Check out player’s social media, how they carry themselves in interviews, how they stick up for each other during the season and playoffs, etc.

N64

pocession charge: It was only one or two people who disagreed with Woodguy and he repeatedly asked that person to stop posting on this site.Please refrain from lumping the rest of us into the same category.

I took that as more of any chance you’re leaving me alone or just leaving. Fine. I’m done.

We lost Hull and kept Bugsy Watson. Que sera sera.

Material Elvis

N64: Your straw dog won’t hunt ?

Lol. That is Definitely Sage advice For me.

Material Elvis

Centre of attention: This post is awesome.

Its simply disappointing we seem to keep losing great insight.

To be honest I don’t think WG is coming back. Why come back when it seems hes not wanted? Of course people like me, you, and some other more veteran posters enjoy him.

But now there are all these new people who seem to think they have as much sway over how we discuss things as the veteran posters do. Which is true, there is no hierarchy here. But damn, it would be awesome to at least get a little bit of respect and restraint when talking with those kinds of posters.

Instead, we belittle and ignore and now we don’t have that insight.

It was only one or two people who disagreed with Woodguy and he repeatedly asked that person to stop posting on this site. Please refrain from lumping the rest of us into the same category.

N64

pocession charge: And what is wrong with new posters and new ideas?

Your straw dog won’t hunt 😉

Material Elvis

Centre of attention,

How do you know who a new person is and who a veteran poster is? A lot of posters change their handles over time. And what is wrong with new posters and new ideas? This blog is still largely math based and most of us like stats. That said, not everything can be explained with stats so there is still room for opinion/eye test/discussion. So go find that mythical blog commentary where everyone agrees with you. Good luck!

N64

Centre of attention: And before you point out “Well it was WG who started the shit” I’ll go ahead and stop you right there. The shit started way before WG’s last post. he had enough. Sure, he probably said something dumb, but he was only returning the favor. WG is not the bad guy here.

Woodguy got tired of raising his elbows when someone came charging across the ice to crosscheck him. If ya can’t ignore the high noise to signal guys best to stay away and do something more interesting than arguing at unhappy hour.

VOR

Digger 50,

Thank you. Here is a little gift in return:

For those of you who like such things here is a hockey riddle:

Once upon a time (a true story none the less) three young men offered as stark a contrast as will even be seen in intangibles. According to their scouting reports.

Player A: was all heart no hands
Player B: was all hands no heart
Player C: couldn’t make up his mind if he had heart, hands, neither or both.

One would become a 50 goal scorer and an NHL Captain.
One would put a team and a city on his back and take it on a wild Stanley Cup Ride. Well you could say that about all three of them. One more than once.
One would become, arguably the greatest sheltering tree hockey has ever seen.
Two of them are the only two NHL players ever to be voted by their teammates “favorite teammate” five times.
One would get put on waivers and his teammates would hold a prayer vigil praying he wouldn’t be claimed.
Player B taught Player A how to throw a body check.
Player A would become the most feared hitter in hockey.
Once upon a time they all played together, on a line.

That last clue should be a giveaway. Name the players.

rickithebear

I want Dmen who
Defend at Even HD and Shot suppression
2. Defend the PK.
Pk Goal dif rediction gets paid a lot less than PPGF in the cap world.
You only need 4 min of 1 PP D.
3. I want my D to get the forwards the puck and not Sacrifice Def of free path to net.

Dmen top 20 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
none!

Dmen top 40 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
Parayko (3rd comp)

Dmen top 60 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
Larsson (1st comp)
Niskanen(1st/2nd)
Markov (1st/2nd)
Suter (1st/2nd)
Ekholm (2nd comp)
Slavin (2nd/3rd)
Shattenkirk (3rd) UFA

Dmen top 90 EVGA60; PKGA60; EVA60
Pietrangelo (1st)
Josi (1st)
Lindholm (1st)
Myers (1st)
P. Martin (1st/2nd)
Hedman (1st/2nd)
Matta (2nd)
K. Miller (2nd)
Boychuk (2nd)
Carlson (2nd)
Ellis (2nd/3rd)
Demers (3rd)
S. jones (3rd)
Benning (3rd)
I. Cole (3rd)
there are 21 Dmen who can be above average in EVGA; EVA; PKGA

Def Dmen:
top 15 EVG60; PKGA60
Alzner (1st comp) UFA
top 6 in both.
My Russell money is going here.

top 30 EVG60; PKGA60
Manson (1st)
Brodin (1st/2nd)

top 45 EVG60; PKGA60
Lovejoy (1st)
Marchenko (3rd)

top 60 EVG60; PKGA60
Stralman (2nd)
Gunnarson (2nd)
Pesce (2nd/3rd)
B. Smith (3rd) UFA

top 75 EVG60; PKGA60
A. Greene (1st)
Doughty (1st/2nd)
Bouwmeester (1st/2nd)
Mcquaid (1st-3rd)

top 90 EVG60; PKGA60
M. Staal (1st/2nd)
Coburn (2nd-3rd)
Dillon (2nd/3rd)
Martinez (2nd/3rd)
Seabrook (2nd/3rd)

Take your Pick!

Centre of attention

Gollum:
Woodguy was the best.
And we have people calling him arrogant because he could actually back up his arguments with logic. I can go anywhere and read “Hall is a cancer” and “Petry is soft” posts, but I come/came here to read comments that presented something beyond opinion.
I miss Woodguy and GMoney and others like them that I could learn something from. Luckily, there are still a few left.

This post is awesome.

Its simply disappointing we seem to keep losing great insight.

treevojo: Woodguy has been a staple of this blog ever since I can remember coming here.

With the amount of time and energy he put in to posting here over the years the words dramatic and arrogant are little over the top.

Personally I love it when people get into disputes here. It is part of the entertainment for me.

Reminds me of growing up in a house of four boys.As Lowetide takes the fatherly figure it obviously isn’t as fun for him.

I hope woodguy is just taking a breather and comes back rebooted 3.0.

To be honest I don’t think WG is coming back. Why come back when it seems hes not wanted? Of course people like me, you, and some other more veteran posters enjoy him.

But now there are all these new people who seem to think they have as much sway over how we discuss things as the veteran posters do. Which is true, there is no hierarchy here. But damn, it would be awesome to at least get a little bit of respect and restraint when talking with those kinds of posters.

Instead, we belittle and ignore and now we don’t have that insight anymore.

And before you point out “Well it was WG who started the shit” I’ll go ahead and stop you right there. The shit started way before WG’s last post. he had enough. Sure, he probably said something dumb, but he was only returning the favor. WG is not the bad guy here.

I used to be a daily, even hourly poster here. Now I hardly post because I don’t have time to argue. And I can’t just post things without arguing my point, and WG told me in twitter DM’s he’s like this too, either you finish your point fully or not at all. You can’t half ass his kind of insight.

That kind of commitment to quality content is what makes his posts so damn good.

Anyways, in summary, we need to be better. This place was going pretty good during the playoffs. But the second summer hit and the talk turned to roster building, we are back at the same old shit.

I don’t know if I want to be a part of the shit this time. I’ll take my time to see how things evolve here, but it may just be time to find a new home perhaps. Sad, really.

-Ben

digger50

Glass:
VOR,

Nice post. I have to say, I’m not sure how much the ‘who won the Hall trade’ is really relevant. We’re a better team because of it, full-stop. I think that’s what counts. It should also be noted that the culture is better off without him, honestly.

Multiple current and ex-players have alluded to the fact that the room used to be split and ‘clique’ like.

Well you see here we go again.

Blanket statements of opinion presented as fact.

And the saying “full stop” so I guess there is no counter.

Gollum

Woodguy was the best.
And we have people calling him arrogant because he could actually back up his arguments with logic. I can go anywhere and read “Hall is a cancer” and “Petry is soft” posts, but I come/came here to read comments that presented something beyond opinion.
I miss Woodguy and GMoney and others like them that I could learn something from. Luckily, there are still a few left.

treevojo

who: This is bang on. Announcing you are no longer posting on here because someone doesn’t agree with you or is arguing with you strikes me as a bit dramatic. Also a bit arrogant. If I ever decide to quit posting I don’t think I’ll feel the need to make a formal announcement.

Woodguy has been a staple of this blog ever since I can remember coming here.

With the amount of time and energy he put in to posting here over the years the words dramatic and arrogant are little over the top.

Personally I love it when people get into disputes here. It is part of the entertainment for me.

Reminds me of growing up in a house of four boys. As Lowetide takes the fatherly figure it obviously isn’t as fun for him.

I hope woodguy is just taking a breather and comes back rebooted 3.0.

N64

VOR: That inquiry lead me down a rabbit hole and once I was at the bottom of it there were a lot of interconnecting tunnels and holes intersecting those tunnels and so on and on. I haven’t met the Mad Hatter yet but I am sure he is down here somewhere. I realized slowly, but finally, I now love the math more than I love the hockey. The hockey just generates the data.

When you get the envelope pick up the burner.

“I don’t know if you’re ready to see what I want to show you, but unfortunately, you and I have run out of time. They’re coming for you, Neo, and I don’t know what they’re going to do.”

Hey long ago you probably started liking the stories as much as the hockey. Now you’ve got the numbers and the stories and the hockey.

“I didn’t come here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell you how it’s going to begin. I’m going to hang up this phone, and then I’m going to show these people what you don’t want them to see.”

Glass

VOR,

Nice post. I have to say, I’m not sure how much the ‘who won the Hall trade’ is really relevant. We’re a better team because of it, full-stop. I think that’s what counts. It should also be noted that the culture is better off without him, honestly.

Multiple current and ex-players have alluded to the fact that the room used to be split and ‘clique’ like.

treevojo

Cassandra: Why would Woodguy come back?Look at the threads the past few days.He has nothing in common with the people who dominate the postsThey aren’t interested in discussion, they think events have proven them right and they tolerate no dissent.In recent days, longtime posters like Knightown and VOR, and a poster I didn’t recognized, have each been attacked, and not on substance, for departing from orthodoxy.The only reason for someone like Woodguy to post here is to fight.I think he decided he wasn’t interested in fighting anymore.The culture war within this community is over, and Woodguy’s side lost.

The better question is how long lowetide will be able to keep it going?Will he drift toward the interests and ideas of his new readers co-opted by the emerging Edmonton consensus, or will he be able to maintain his independence of mind and persist despite the resulting alienation from his audience?

Now this has got to be BW.

I like the name too.

Very suitable.

Material Elvis

VOR:
Given my name came up I just want to say something about my personal experience as a poster here.

I have left this blog twice and neither time has it actually had much to do with other posters though I have been in the midst of major fire fights both times. In the first instance I realized I was becoming obsessive compulsive about arguing about stats. Which seemed a rather silly waste of time for a grown up. Better, at least marginally, to be obsessed with doing sports analytics as a hobby.

In the second instance, as I told GMoney, there came a moment where my love of hockey, a sport I have played for four decades and watched for five, was being eroded, corroded, pick a word, by my growing knowledge of the math that underlies the sport. I preferred to save my love of hockey and for a month or so I went cold turkey off the math. But it sucked me back in. By the time I got back to posting GMoney was gone and I never got a chance to say to him that I discovered I had waited too long to give up the math.

I am one of those fractured fans LT posted about. I will never be bonded to this team the way I was to previous iterations of the Oilers (I had season tickets for over 30 years). It is because of the Hall trade but not in the way that seems to get mentioned most often. I loved Adam Larsson and still do. I loved Taylor Hall and still do. In the cold hard light of day I set out to figure out a way of determining (and yes I do know the definition of hubris and about wax wings and the sun) the true value of each player so I could figure out for myself who won the trade, if anyone did.

That inquiry lead me down a rabbit hole and once I was at the bottom of it there were a lot of interconnecting tunnels and holes intersecting those tunnels and so on and on. I haven’t met the Mad Hatter yet but I am sure he is down here somewhere. I realized slowly, but finally, I now love the math more than I love the hockey. The hockey just generates the data.

With that knowledge, I miss GMoney and Woodguy with their math. Lately I realized I haven’t seen Georges in a few threads. But I don’t think it should matter who moves on or gets asked to leave. Over time a new generation of posters will spring up filled with fascinating new ideas about hockey and the math that underlies hockey. Nothing like cutting down the tall trees to encourage re-generation.

Great post VOR!

VOR

Given my name came up I just want to say something about my personal experience as a poster here.

I have left this blog twice and neither time has it actually had much to do with other posters though I have been in the midst of major fire fights both times. In the first instance I realized I was becoming obsessive compulsive about arguing about stats. Which seemed a rather silly waste of time for a grown up. Better, at least marginally, to be obsessed with doing sports analytics as a hobby.

In the second instance, as I told GMoney, there came a moment where my love of hockey, a sport I have played for four decades and watched for five, was being eroded, corroded, pick a word, by my growing knowledge of the math that underlies the sport. I preferred to save my love of hockey and for a month or so I went cold turkey off the math. But it sucked me back in. By the time I got back to posting GMoney was gone and I never got a chance to say to him that I discovered I had waited too long to give up the math.

I am one of those fractured fans LT posted about. I will never be bonded to this team the way I was to previous iterations of the Oilers (I had season tickets for over 30 years). It is because of the Hall trade but not in the way that seems to get mentioned most often. I loved Adam Larsson and still do. I loved Taylor Hall and still do. In the cold hard light of day I set out to figure out a way of determining (and yes I do know the definition of hubris and about wax wings and the sun) the true value of each player so I could figure out for myself who won the trade, if anyone did.

That inquiry lead me down a rabbit hole and once I was at the bottom of it there were a lot of interconnecting tunnels and holes intersecting those tunnels and so on and on. I haven’t met the Mad Hatter yet but I am sure he is down here somewhere. I realized slowly, but finally, I now love the math more than I love the hockey. The hockey just generates the data.

With that knowledge, I miss GMoney and Woodguy with their math. Lately I realized I haven’t seen Georges in a few threads. But I don’t think it should matter who moves on or gets asked to leave. Over time a new generation of posters will spring up filled with fascinating new ideas about hockey and the math that underlies hockey. Nothing like cutting down the tall trees to encourage re-generation.

B.C.B

as a long time reader, and now rare commenter

I am going to miss WG’s comments, a lot.
I hate twitter, and really appreciated how he explained stats to me (even if I rarely asked questions) in more than 160 characters over here on lowetide’s site. I am going to likely stop reading comments most of the time

stevezie

If you ever see someone walking the streets in a Kurri jersey, there’s a real good chance you’re looking at the opportunity to finally run me over with your car in person.

Haven’t seen many others.

Woogie63

1. Letestu
2. Robert Thomas
3. Demers
4. Stays
5. LB
6. 2 x $3.7 M
7. 7 x $7.5 M
8. 7 x $6.0 M
9. Russell and Demers
10. Grabner
11. No
12. 2

Diablo

Ducey,

Totally agree on Strome – he’s got a famous family name but he needs to be sheltered to produce. Gagner’s a good comp. Which is fine for team that has an aggressive line matching coach, but that’s not TMac philosophy (he prefers quick shifts and rolling 4 lines to push the pace).

Correct me if I’m wrong on this, but Hamonic has been pretty good according to both eye and math up until this past year. Perhaps this last year was an aberration – could be an opportunity to get a good, cost-controlled RHD when he otherwise would not be available.

Gayfish

Ducey: I don’t like Strome. I think he MIGHT someday be Sam Gagner. That is not a C, not a defensive player, certainly not a heavy player, and someone who could excel in gravy minutes and on the PP. Its not a compliment (although I always cheered for Samwise when he was an Oiler).

Strome isn’t a top 6 winger.

He was 10th in CF% on the Islanders. The river swept him away.

Speaking of which, Hamonic showed he was not capable of swimming in the second pair this last year. There is a good chance he is Mark Fayne in a year from now. In terms of CF% he is Russell.

To give up Eberle and a first for Gagner and Russell: not a fan.

So I guess we will have to disagree.

Are you sure? I’ve heard of Strome and Hamonic…

IRL you are 100% right, it’s a nonsense deal. Why would you bet on Hamonic returning to previous levels, and Strome turning a corner instead of betting on Eberle rebounding. And why in gods name is a first moving the other way?

The size perceptions drive me nuts. Sam Gagner at 5’11 205 was tiny, but Strome at 6′ 195 is a brute. Fact of the matter is both aren’t physical players.

dustrock

Ducey,

I’m staying away from the Islanders at this point, not sure who I like on that team for the Oilers.

T0ML

1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
– Kharia
2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
– Nicholas Hague
3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
– Yes, NYI, multiple parts, RHD coming back, Vatenan or Barrie
4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
– No
5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
– Ellis
6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
– 3.9/2
7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
– 11/8
8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
– 6.89/8
9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
– Russell / Vatenen
10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
– Oshie
11) Is Jessie playing game 1?
– Yes
12) How many roster trades does Chia make?
– 3

Ducey

Pink Socks: No offense taken.

Oilers give up a 1st round plus a 51 pt player who had a bad season and even worse playoffs and who doesn’t perform well against heavy teams with a $6m price tag in exchange for a 40 point RW, younger, at $2.5m, and a cost controlled sub-$4m RH defender who, while having a tough season, also had an injury, but is certainly more than capable of filling a second pairing slot.The cap is a wash, the RH defender issue is filled, and the RW/C issue is filled. I’m more than okay with a move of this nature.

I don’t like Strome. I think he MIGHT someday be Sam Gagner. That is not a C, not a defensive player, certainly not a heavy player, and someone who could excel in gravy minutes and on the PP. Its not a compliment (although I always cheered for Samwise when he was an Oiler).

Strome isn’t a top 6 winger.

He was 10th in CF% on the Islanders. The river swept him away.

Speaking of which, Hamonic showed he was not capable of swimming in the second pair this last year. There is a good chance he is Mark Fayne in a year from now. In terms of CF% he is Russell.

To give up Eberle and a first for Gagner and Russell: not a fan.

So I guess we will have to disagree.

Material Elvis

–hudson–:
The ex-Oilers reunion with the Islanders continues.Luke Richardson just hired by Doug Weight, joining Kelly Buchberger.

Better there than here I guess.

Is Buchberger still assistant coach of fake tanning?

--hudson--

The ex-Oilers reunion with the Islanders continues. Luke Richardson just hired by Doug Weight, joining Kelly Buchberger.

Better there than here I guess.

Gayfish

Hey guys. Been following advanced stats for years, and I’ve always wanted to do some work on it. I’m an engineer by trade. I’m not that familiar with the data scene though. I want to do a DOE. So first I want see sort of what factors are important to scoring, and from that I can create a regression using those variables. Once you have the regression, you should be able to run it over players to have a better predictor than raw corsi or fenwick.

What I need is shot location data for individual games, preferably sorted into bins, and the score from that game. Is there anywhere I can pull that from?

Then subsequently the shots taken from locations by player, which should be easier to find.

dustrock

Man, Chia signing Rutta from the Czech league would be great.

A guy who wont’ cost roster players or draft picks, and you probably don’t have to break the bank for him.

RHD who can maybe PP2. Maybe you still go for a better RHD 2nd pairing, but even bottom pairing, that looks pretty good.

who

pocession charge: This doesn’t really frame the issue accurately.If people disagree with your opinion, then you are allowed to counter argue.Woodguy cannot seem to do this without getting defensive and being a jerk sometimes.What you basically just said was, “If you are a long time poster that holds certain views, then you should be immune to other posters questioning those views”.Knightown and VOR were not attacked.Woodguy was not attacked — he got into an(other) argument with Season Not Played and instead of ignoring him like a mature adult would do, he decided to pack up his net and go home.Too bad because he was a good poster and I liked to read his posts.

This is bang on. Announcing you are no longer posting on here because someone doesn’t agree with you or is arguing with you strikes me as a bit dramatic. Also a bit arrogant. If I ever decide to quit posting I don’t think I’ll feel the need to make a formal announcement.

--hudson--

JustWatt:
Kurri was always my favorite player as a kid growing up. I was searching for a non-Gretzky player to be my favorite and when I was 8 or 9 I would read the Journal Sports section for game updates and such. It was there that I discovered that Kurri and I shared a birthday and from then I never had another favorite player and could never have chosen better! Broke my heart to watch Kurri leave as much as Gretzky.

One of my favorite Kurri stories was his first game in Winnipeg. He looks up in the rafters, sees the portrait of the Queen, and asks Gretzky who the lady is. If I could remember where I saw the story, I would link it. Funny stuff.

I really miss Woodguy’s comments, hope he comes back.

who

Pink Socks: No offense taken.

Oilers give up a 1st round plus a 51 pt player who had a bad season and even worse playoffs and who doesn’t perform well against heavy teams with a $6m price tag in exchange for a 40 point RW, younger, at $2.5m, and a cost controlled sub-$4m RH defender who, while having a tough season, also had an injury, but is certainly more than capable of filling a second pairing slot.The cap is a wash, the RH defender issue is filled, and the RW/C issue is filled. I’m more than okay with a move of this nature.

I would love this trade from an Oiler perspective but I am not sure the Islanders would be willing to make it.

Jethro Tull

Cassandra,

If there can ever be a silver lining to WG’s leaving, let it be that it is forcing me to stop being so lazy and to look up the numbers that can prove or disprove a point.

I took him for granted when he would post up the stats on a player or team. But i am learning, so while I will never be a stats wizard, at least i can understand what the conversation is.

At least he could have let his phone keep posting.

Damn, it’s getting smokey in here….:-(

Material Elvis

frjohnk: We have lost other good posters as they were attacked as well.They can all be found on twitter.

They can be found on Twitter where people are so respectful towards each other………

russ99

who: Wow! You really don’t like Nuge do you?
So your saying Nuge, 1st round pick AND Caleb Jones for Faulk. And you don’t see that as a wee bit of an overpay?

LOL.

No, it’s just really expensive to land a quality D in a trade, as we saw last summer. Also, I’m thinking a late 1st, like from St. Louis.

Nuge’s contract makes that value less, not Nuge himself. 4/$6M is a lot to stomach for any player taken back in a deal.

Material Elvis

Cassandra: Why would Woodguy come back?Look at the threads the past few days.He has nothing in common with the people who dominate the postsThey aren’t interested in discussion, they think events have proven them right and they tolerate no dissent.In recent days, longtime posters like Knightown and VOR, and a poster I didn’t recognized, have each been attacked, and not on substance, for departing from orthodoxy.The only reason for someone like Woodguy to post here is to fight.I think he decided he wasn’t interested in fighting anymore.The culture war within this community is over, and Woodguy’s side lost.

The better question is how long lowetide will be able to keep it going?Will he drift toward the interests and ideas of his new readers co-opted by the emerging Edmonton consensus, or will he be able to maintain his independence of mind and persist despite the resulting alienation from his audience?

This doesn’t really frame the issue accurately. If people disagree with your opinion, then you are allowed to counter argue. Woodguy cannot seem to do this without getting defensive and being a jerk sometimes. What you basically just said was, “If you are a long time poster that holds certain views, then you should be immune to other posters questioning those views”. Knightown and VOR were not attacked. Woodguy was not attacked — he got into an(other) argument with Season Not Played and instead of ignoring him like a mature adult would do, he decided to pack up his net and go home. Too bad because he was a good poster and I liked to read his posts.