FIVE BULLETS

by Lowetide

Wayne Gretzky entered the NHL as an Edmonton Oiler in the fall of 1979. He spent nine autumns in Edmonton, the club offloading him in the summer of 1988. The kicker? He didn’t jump, the Oilers traded sold his rights. Fast forward to the modern era, and there are rumblings that McDavid may want to sign a five-year deal (as opposed to the max plan, eight years).

  • Elliotte Friedman“One of the theories is that what McDavid might do is copy some other star players who went for five-year deals, which gives the opportunity to have another big deal when he’s 25 years old.” Source

That contract would take McDavid to summer 2023 and he would be a free agent at that time. It may be a good idea (keeps pressure on management to win) but talk of a much lower cap number is probably wishful thinking. If this second contract comes in anywhere around $10M, that’s a fantastic deal. Thoughts? Four years, $48 million? Five years, $57.5 million? At some level, this negotiation is mostly about McDavid’s map. The best hope for Peter Chiarelli? Win some Stanleys before 2023.

OILERS SIGN PAKARINEN

The Oilers have signed winger Iiro Pakarinen to a one-year deal and the impact of that one contract could be significant. It allows the Oilers to protect Mark Letestu in the expansion draft and likely expose Jujhar Khaira to the draft. Here is what the list might look like:

  • Goal: Cam Talbot
  • Defense: Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom
  • Forwards: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian, Mark Letestu
  • Ineligible: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Nick Ellis.
  • Eligible: G Laurent Brossoit, D Mark Fayne, D Kris Russell (ufa), D Griffin Reinhart (rfa), D Jordan Oesterle (ufa), D Dillon Simpson (rfa), D David Musil (rfa), C Jujhar Khaira, C David Desharnais (ufa), L Benoit Pouliot, R Tyler Pitlick (ufa), R Iiro Pakarinen.

The big change from last time? Mark Letestu protected, Jujhar Khaira available for expansion. Las Vegas may grab Khaira (or Griffin Reinhart), some say Laurent Brossoit is most likely to go. I would keep Khaira and leave Letestu exposed (one year left on deal) but Edmonton is very likely to protect him.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST

  • UFA: LD Kris Russell, RD Eric Gryba, LC David Desharnais, R Tyler Pitlick, L Matt Hendricks, LD Jordan Oesterle, LD Mark Fraser, R Justin Fontaine
  • RFA Unlikely to return: LC Anton Lander, LD David Musil, G Eetu Laurikainen, C Zach Pochiro, R Henrik Samuelsson
  • Already Gone: LC Jere Sallinen (Orebro, SHL)

With the rumored interest in Czech defender Jan Rutta, I am less certain about a player like Dillon Simpson. He has AHL experience and could mentor Ethan Bear or Ryan Mantha through their early AHL games, with Mark Fayne available for Caleb Jones. That said, the turnover on defense in Bakersfield is going to be substantial and adding Rutta may mean Simpson gets squeezed a little. I suspect he signs.

AAPELI RASANEN

Young Finnish center (and Oilers draft pick) Aapeli Rasanen scored last night for Sioux City and his playoff totals now run 12gp, 2-2-4. He was 7-18-25 in 38 regular-season games and is off to Boston College in the fall. The Musketeers won the game, forcing a deciding Game 5 on Tuesday night for the Clark Cup. Rasanen has the full skill set, with skating the reason he fell to the sixth round. If he improves the boots, he could be an NHL player. Solid investment.

ETHAN BEAR

Bear and his Seattle Thunderbirds played (and lost) to the Erie Otters yesterday. Erie looks like the class of the group this year. Seattle plays again today, WHL teams get the bad schedule out east (and the eastern teams get the horns out here).

Bear had some wobble early in yesterday’s game and then settled in and played well. He hasn’t been unleashing his shot from the point since his hand injury, but did make solid breakout passes and got some shots at goal. I think he’s going to need some AHL time, that should not come as a surprise.

JESSE PULJUJARVI

Puljujarvi is in the lineup today for the bronze medal game. He is taking regular shifts and looks good early (lots of touches, set up a reasonable chance).

TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Edmonton’s terrific playoff run has me up against it as we approach June. There are 20 (!!) RE posts to do and they take a little longer than the average post. I also have 20 draft posts planned for June, meaning RE and draft are going to rock steady over the next 40 days. I’ll be getting ahead of some things in anticipation, including a top 20 re-set that you’ll see at 5 local time today.

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JD_Wry

verite:
Chiarelli us an abject incompetent
Now is the time to trade MacDavid
Trade him to Tamoa for Herman
We would still be playing if that trade had been nade

Not sure if the real Ver!t#, or a Stephen Colbert take on his schtick. Either way, priceless.

jp

hags9k,

Fair enough. I wondered if you’d made a typo.

hags9k

jp,

I doubt it will be quite that high but I think his cap hit will be a lot uglier than we want to admit.

verite

Chiarelli us an abject incompetent
Now is the time to trade MacDavid
Trade him to Tamoa for Herman
We would still be playing if that trade had been nade

Professor Q

gogliano:
Makes perfect sense to avoid any post-CBA rollback.McDavid doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who wants to be remembered for leaving a team.It’s the smart play.

5 years somewhere around the Kane/Toews number is my guess (10.5 cap hit).He may be the best player in the world but he’s coming off his rookie contract.I see no reason to believe he’ll ask them to blow the highest paid contracts out of the water.

That was their second post-ELC contract, though.

MacT's Neglected Helmet

5 years eh? Interesting.

Might represent a win-win (lower caphit for Oilers – higher 3rd contract for McDavid).
But it seems a little risky. Hmm. Obviously, the important thing is to surround McDavid with a strong, stable team so that he has little incentive to jump ship 5-8 years from now.

jp

hags9k:

8. 79M x 8

9.9M per for Draisaitl?

hags9k

1. Khaira
2. Vesalainen
3. Sadly yes. Matt Dumba.
4. No way Jose
5. LB
6. 4.0 x 2yrs
7. 97M x 8
8. 79M x 8
9. Dumba Russell
10. Bonino
11. yes
12. two

Ray

godot10: Stop-gap possibilities for Sekera.

Sign Streit or Hainsey to a one-year deal.Trade for an expiring contract like Garrison or Chara.

Most of the contract would be covered by the time (=money) Sekera spends on LTIR.

Signing Russell long term means the Oilers will be weaker on defense than the other Stanley Cup contenders for the foreseeable future.Chiarelli would be building in too low a ceiling.

The better way might be to see if reinhart or osterle are ready

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
Although I’m not sure how we fit any term in, I’ve succumb to the fast that the organization will be re-signing Russell. I think there is big risk if the term is 3 plus but I’ve come to peace with it.

Given the foregoing, I simply don’t see how they can acquire another d-man as a stop-gap for Sekera – we certainly cannot acquire term and a one-year contract for the right player seems unlikely.

Stop-gap possibilities for Sekera.

Sign Streit or Hainsey to a one-year deal. Trade for an expiring contract like Garrison or Chara.

Most of the contract would be covered by the time (=money) Sekera spends on LTIR.

Signing Russell long term means the Oilers will be weaker on defense than the other Stanley Cup contenders for the foreseeable future. Chiarelli would be building in too low a ceiling.

trencan

Lundquist is the king…

admiralmark

I wouldn’t be surprised to see McDavid taking a reasonable deal. Below what he “could” make and slightly above what would be considered a home town discount. He is driven to win and i’m sure there is a small consideration given to not wanting to handcuff the team with salary cap issues.

It is also easier for him to consider the concept of leaving some $$ on the table due to the amount of endorsements he will also be receiving. My guess. $9.7 million x 8. Of course he could demand and receive more. I just don’t expect him to go the max amount route.

theWaxCollector

Kinger_Oil.redux:

Here’s my questions that we can “Prognosticate for 2017 game 1”. Picks have to be in before the Vegas draft:
1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

– Winner gets a LT got a paypal contribution! Same this year (and my respect: last year Leadfarmer got the most right.

1. Reinhart
2. Kole Lind
3. Yes (Brett Pesce)
4. No
5. Brossoit
6. 3.2 Million / 1 Year
7. 77 Million / 7 Years
8. 54 Million / 8 Years
9. Pesce & Russell
10. Spencer Foo
11. No, AHL
12. 3 Roster trades

Kinger_Oil.redux

Jaxon: This is awesome. One issue is that question number 10 will be based on opinion. It may need a more specific definition to be fair. How do you define biggest Free acquisition on opening night? Of two or more get picked up and they are both valuable but for different reasons then it will be tough to decide who won.

– good point I will modify the question to: “highest salary added F to next years roster

Ray

Here’s my questions that we can “Prognosticate for 2017 game 1”. Picks have to be in before the Vegas draft:
1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
12) How many roster trades does Chia make?
– Winner gets a LT got a paypal contribution! Same this year (and my respect: last year Leadfarmer got the most right.
– Please send me in the following format:
1 Pouloit
2 Kole Lind
3 yes (Hamonic)
4 no
5 LB
6 0/0 guessing he goes to Calgary
7 $9M x 5 years
8 $7M x 7 years
9 Hamonic/Reinhart
10 Martin Hanzal
11 no
12 one

Bank Shot

I don’t care how much sense a 5 year contract makes.

I would feel much, much better with an 8 year deal.

Hopefully this 5 year stuff is just speculation and McDavid re-ups for the longest term possible.

gogliano

Makes perfect sense to avoid any post-CBA rollback. McDavid doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who wants to be remembered for leaving a team. It’s the smart play.

5 years somewhere around the Kane/Toews number is my guess (10.5 cap hit). He may be the best player in the world but he’s coming off his rookie contract. I see no reason to believe he’ll ask them to blow the highest paid contracts out of the water.

Jaxon

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– OK: Been at the cottage for the long-weekend.It’s a glorious Sunday rainy day: Son watching Lion king with his cousin.Good time to catch-up: there’s been some great posts LT!

I’m going to post this up for awhile.I ripped it off from Hunter’s poll.I think its a neat poll, becasue we are all arm-chair GM’s: yet we end up so far from what actually gets done!:

Here’s my questions that we can “Prognosticate for 2017 game 1”. Picks have to be in before the Vegas draft:
1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

– Winner gets a LT got a paypal contribution! Same this year (and my respect: last year Leadfarmer got the most right.

– Please send me in the following format:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

This is awesome. One issue is that question number 10 will be based on opinion. It may need a more specific definition to be fair. How do you define biggest Free acquisition on opening night? Of two or more get picked up and they are both valuable but for different reasons then it will be tough to decide who won.

Dino

When is the last time a superstar captain left his team as a UFA to sign somewhere else? I’m going to guess it’s rare. 5 year deal or 8 year deal, I’m going to count Mcdavid as an Oiler for life.

Stud Muffin

I feel like LT is going to be real wrong when McDavid signs his deal, I’m sorry but it’s just dumb and unreasonable to suggest he’s going to get 1m more than any player has ever gotten and almost 3m more than anyone coming out of ELC.

Professor Q

JDI: Or is the ground rising up?

That’d be making a mountain out of a molehill.

JD_Wry

Professor Q:
Holy Hell it seems like the sky has fallen in Lowetide Land.

Or is the ground rising up?

OriginalPouzar

Although I’m not sure how we fit any term in, I’ve succumb to the fast that the organization will be re-signing Russell. I think there is big risk if the term is 3 plus but I’ve come to peace with it.

Given the foregoing, I simply don’t see how they can acquire another d-man as a stop-gap for Sekera – we certainly cannot acquire term and a one-year contract for the right player seems unlikely.

Can we not fill the need internally given its only for a few months of the season?

Ideally we want Nurse/Benning penciled in as the 3rd pairing, however, we’ve been dealt a blow to our ideal opening night lineup.

What we do have is a guy by the name of Mark Fayne signed to a contract who is an NHL d-man and shoots right.

As I said, not ideal to have Fayne in the opening night roster or Benning gifted the 2nd pairing minutes but it may be able to hold the fort for a few months barring further material injuries:

Klef/Larsson
Russell/Benning
Nurse/Fayne

Gryba/Simpson

Not idea but it could be less than two months.

JD_Wry

OriginalPouzar: No bonuses allowed except on ELCs and 35 plus contracts.

Signing bonus is what he said, and yes those are allowed under this CBA.

OriginalPouzar

godot10:
Touting my own horn….

GODOT10 says:
March 6, 2017 at 7:16 pm
McDavid probably signs for 5 years, with big signing bonuses in the last year, and the year of the option to reopen the CBA as lockout insurance.
The shorter term means the AAV can be kept down because the contract doesn’t have to account for possible salary rollbacks in a new CBA.
It means he would be a UFA at 26 at the end of the deal, but that would be a better time to sign a third contract than at 29.
https://lowetide.ca/2017/03/06/making-the-call-on-the-rfas/

No bonuses allowed except on ELCs and 35 plus contracts.

Put the horn away…

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Hey LT, just curious… any plans to do playoff performance reviews for each player?

Professor Q

Holy Hell it seems like the sky has fallen in Lowetide Land.

godot10

Touting my own horn….

GODOT10 says:
March 6, 2017 at 7:16 pm
McDavid probably signs for 5 years, with big signing bonuses in the last year, and the year of the option to reopen the CBA as lockout insurance.
The shorter term means the AAV can be kept down because the contract doesn’t have to account for possible salary rollbacks in a new CBA.
It means he would be a UFA at 26 at the end of the deal, but that would be a better time to sign a third contract than at 29.
https://lowetide.ca/2017/03/06/making-the-call-on-the-rfas/

Centre of attention

Just got back from Jasper.

What did I miss recently? I caught the Pakarinen signing and its implications, but any other significant rumors or talk in the last few days?

leadfarmer

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Sweet I didn’t realize LT got a contribution. Thank you and thanks LT for the hard work

godot10

The #1 task (apart from contract signings) for Chiarelli this summer is to get the #2RD…Faulk, Dumba, Savard, Hamonic, or Tanev. i.e. get a Stanley Cup D.

Lots of potential stopgaps for Sekera might be available. Streit, Hainsey, (1 year UFA deals) Chara, Garrison (expiring contracts).

John Chambers

I may be more looking forward to 20 days of LT re’s and draft write-ups than I am the Stanley Cup Final.

But be a good Canadian and get behind the Sens. It’ll add to the sentiment of the nation’s 150th birthday.

N64

lynn:
If the Oilers want Vegas to take Pouliot in the expansion draft, I’m sure there will be an addon: Khaira is my guess.

They can take Khaira without Pouliot if Letestu is protected. In that case Vegas would evaluate Pouliot as a separate deal same as every other team.

jtblack

godot10,

Yah, I think the possibility of McD signing a 5 year deal has less to do with him “wanting to leave”, and more to do with his handlers trying to put McD in prime position to capitalize on the new CBA

Kinger_Oil.redux

– OK: Been at the cottage for the long-weekend. It’s a glorious Sunday rainy day: Son watching Lion king with his cousin. Good time to catch-up: there’s been some great posts LT!

I’m going to post this up for awhile. I ripped it off from Hunter’s poll. I think its a neat poll, becasue we are all arm-chair GM’s: yet we end up so far from what actually gets done!:

Here’s my questions that we can “Prognosticate for 2017 game 1”. Picks have to be in before the Vegas draft:
1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
10) Biggest off-season F acquired?:
11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

– Winner gets a LT got a paypal contribution! Same this year (and my respect: last year Leadfarmer got the most right.

– Please send me in the following format:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

lynn

If the Oilers want Vegas to take Pouliot in the expansion draft, I’m sure there will be an addon: Khaira is my guess.

jtblack

PunjabiOil,

I agree with how you have worded it .. not likely to happen but still better to gurantee ourlselves 3 extra years …

will be interesting to see if Tavares re signs this year .. He would be the first Super Star to leave in his prime .. post 2005 LOCKOUT … At one point the Isles said if he wasn’t signed prior to the draft they would explore trading him as they simply cannot afford to let him walk at the end of next year, for nothing ..

godot10

PunjabiOil:
5 years concerns me.You buy 1 UFA year.Willl give him the opportunity to sign elsewhere.Would he consider it if the Oilers don’t have a cup by then?

I like certainty.Anything less than 8 years would be disappointing

He is not going to sign away the four prime years of his career to an unknown CBA.

5 years is sufficient to give free agents certainty that he is going to be around for awhile. 5 years gives McDavid the ability to hedge Oilers management and hedge the uncertainty of a new CBA.

Ray

Just a quick comment here regarding the amount of worry I’m seeing on here and the twitter machine about Mr. McDavid’s contract term and him wanting to potentially leave after 5 or 8 years…

McDavid will only have to play in a city he wants too. Full stop. When you can already bend the rules of physics, the rules of what is “normal” for players in this league dont apply. IF he ever wanted to play somewhere else Chiarelli, or who ever took over after him being fired for letting it get to that point, would be powerless to stop it.

McDavid’s team had already likely told them he wasnt coming here at the draft unless they smarten up… Well it seems they’ve done that. McDavid and his agent will do as they wish, Chiarelli just has to do what is best with the hand they deal him.

godot10

frjohnk

The day before the big sale in 88, there were whispers Gretzky might be traded and my dad asked me what I thought ( I was 8) and I said Gretzky will be an Oiler for forever.

If every contract renegotiation with a financially struggling Pocklington, Gretzky had negotiated the duration of this contract down. When he was traded, he was 4 years away from complete and total unrestricted free agency. That contributed to a financiaily stressed Pocklington trading him.

Edmonton only missed out on 4 years of Gretzky (and 3 Cups).

godot10

jtblack:
if McDavid signs for 5 years will that impact the length of what Leon signs for?Might he go 5 or 6 years instead of 7 or 8?

If McDavid goes for 5 years (primarily because of the timing of the CBA expiration), then 7 years, one year after McDavid’s contract expires, makes the most sense for Draisaitl.

PunjabiOil

So it’s not that I am naive, but based on history this should not be a huge worry ..

Those comparables all had multiple SCF appearances.

Look, it’s morel likely than not that he would re-sign.

8 years just provides more comfort to the fan than 5 years.

godot10

jtblack:

And LT said, if it’s a 5 yr deal, PC better deliver a Cup or two. I think that has been the expectation all along ( To Have a Stanley in 6 years or less).IF there is no Cup in Edmonton by 2023, all of the Hall Supporters can say “see, I told you so” …

If there is no Stanley Cup in Edmonton by 2023, Bruce Boudreau and Barry Trotz will be the happiest men on the planet.

#EvenBylsmaWonACupWithCrosby

D

Bag of Pucks:
Ever since his initial reaction when the Oil won the lottery, I’ve had this gut instinct that McDavid will bolt at the first possible opp. With that in mind, I do absolutely everything in my power to get his signature on a 8 year deal if I’m Chia. A 5 year term is an organizational fail imo.

One of the things that everyone who knows Connor well talks about is A) his incredible drive & B) his boyhood dream to win the Leafs the Cup. In many ways, McDavid ‘made’ himself the amazing player he is and a big part of that is fuelled by what he views as ‘his mission.’

Ironically, every one is saying the Oil need to win a Cup or 2 quickly to keep him. The opposite may actually be true. If he wins quickly and has nothing left to prove here, why not chase the dollars and the boyhood dream?

The X factor? A wife. If Connor were to marry a local lass, we’ve got our hook. So there you have it ladies, we have a clear and present danger requiring the services of your loins for the kingdom and hockey glory. Good luck and Godspeed.

You know, it may be the Maple Leafs that need to win the Cup with Matthews over the next few years that lessens Connor’s desire to do so.

The Oilers are a different organization now than when Connor was drafted. New building, Wayne Gretzky as mentor, top notch GM and coach – it may be a little tougher for Connor to walk away from all that infrastructure.

Either way, I hope he signs an 8 year deal and not 5.

trencan

jtblack:
finns on the comeback !

Russians have stupid mentality and stoped playing in the last period, the same as yeasterday against Canada. I liked Tkachyov – good on FO, strong in PK, big size, good skating, defensively responsible and young – ideal 3/4C for Oilers in the future. Finns should be more than happy they reached semifinal with this team. They were lucky against US in quaterfinal. Good thing is JP was on the ice during final most important minutes and played good in my opinion.

Kinger_Oil.redux

N64:
~ So now it’s Barzal and Carlo and Khaira for Reinhart. This from the idiots who traded away the 2013 2nd that could have drafted Jarry the only Oil King worth taking this century ~

#AmIDoingitRight?

– Great post LT!

– Your forgot to throw in Davidson!

Woogie63

N64:
~ So now it’s Barzal and Carlo and Khaira for Reinhart. This from the idiots who traded away the 2013 2nd that could have drafted Jarry the only Oil King worth taking this century ~

#AmIDoingitRight?

#No

jtblack

I guess there is always a risk he leaves after 5 or 8 .. but at this point, that would be the complete exception to all other Superstars before him … So it’s not that I am naive, but based on history this should not be a huge worry ..

N64

~ So now it’s Barzal and Carlo and Khaira for Reinhart. This from the idiots who traded away the 2013 2nd that could have drafted Jarry the only Oil King worth taking this century ~

#AmIDoingitRight?