RE 16-17 MARK LETESTU: IDIOTEQUE

by Lowetide

Most truly unique players are the most famous in the game. Generational, no weakness, close enough to perfect. Mark Letestu has his flaws, but that makes him affordable and what he brings has real value. For the Edmonton Oilers, Mark Letestu fills so many important holes that if he didn’t exist they would have to invent him. (Idioteque)

MARK LETESTU 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.33 (7th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.57 (7th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.8
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -3.5
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 40.9
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -6.7 (23 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 120 shots/13.3%
  • Boxcars: 78gp, 16-19-35
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 73gp, 8-12-20 0.274
  • Actual 16-17: 78gp, 16-19-35 0.449
  • Source
  1. That was an amazing year. Really impressive, especially on the power play.
  2. A power-play demon! Letestu’s role on the power play can be duplicated by others (RH forwards with a good shot) but, credit where due, he grabbed the job and was effective.
  3. Gah! Why can’t you just be happy? I am, great season, great contract.
  4. Yeah whatever. Did you read the damned header? Dink.
  5. Well, check your tone once in a while. What?
  6. His 5×5 a concern? Yes and no. Last year, his production (0.61) was very poor but that improved markedly this season. That’s a real positive, he basically doubled production.
  7. His possession number was poor. Yes, but it was dependent on who he played with so we can assume three good forwards (including Letestu) will make a solid 4line.
  8. Please explain. Give him good linemates like Zack Kassian (49.2 Corsi for 5×5 percentage in 315 minutes) or Anton Lander (50 percent in 123 minutes) and things hum. With Matt Hendricks and younger players, not so good. Also a complete train wreck with Benoit Pouliot, don’t know why.
  9. Guess. Well they spent an hour together 5×5 and were 37.1 in possession, so I’ll guess three really bad shifts buried them.
  10. So his line was better year over year? Better scoring for sure, possession went from 45.1 to 45.8 so that’s not a major step forward. They did offload Lauri Korpikoski so that was an upgrade for sure (the Finn did not have a good year with Edmonton).
  11. Could he move up to 3C? No, I think there’s a line there he should not cross. I think he gets unfairly criticized partly because his special teams minutes crush his ability to play at evens, so maybe he could play 3C if he didn’t have those added responsibilities. My guess is that it never comes to that in Edmonton.
  12. What is he good at? Power play, penalty kill, faceoffs. He is a veteran presence and the production compared to contract makes him a real value contract.
  13. How good is he at PK? Letestu had less success than Nuge and McDavid in GA60 4×5 this season, but was stronger a year ago in the metric. I think he can be part of the solution, and his FO percentage being over 50 helps.
  14. Will they protect him. Yes. The signing of Iiro Pakarinen makes that very likely. IP and Benoit Pouliot will be the veteran forwards exposed.
  15. Can we talk? Confusion now, I thought that was what we were doing.
  16. No, about the team. Are we done with Letestu?
  17. Good 4C, needs quality veteran linemates, scores on PP, wins faceoffs, good not great on the power play, excellent contract. Okay. We’re good.
  18. How are they going to get better now? Well, it’s important to remember the summers where five or six moves were required are gone now. Chiarelli has placed the broad brush on the table and is picking up a tapered brush. The fine work is to come.
  19. What will it look like? I think the best way for us to proceed is to think of the roster as a puzzle. We all know that RHD needs help, right?
  20. Yes. So, we make a list. If Edmonton acquired Erik Karlsson, could this team win a championship?
  21. Yes. Okay. What about P.K. Subban? Dougie Hamilton? Josh Manson? Justin Faulk? Radko Gudas? That’s the goal now, finding the line in the sand.
  22. Kris Russell? You’ll have to wait for his RE. I will say that imo grabbing a Gudas and say Martin Hanzal would be a successful summer, with the trade deadline the final shopping weekend before next year’s playoffs.
  23. Why this song? I think he is a ‘women and children first’ kind of guy. Radiohead songs are very interesting and wide reaching, you could pick 10 songs for each player. I think Letestu brings qualities that surround responsibility. I like the fact that he has worked to improve areas of his game to make himself more useful. There’s a lot to respect about Mark Letestu.
  24. Should have led with that. smh.
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Cameron

My favourite Radiohead song

wintoon

One thing about PC is that he does not seem to make ‘obvious’ deals. He acquired Maroon and that was not on anybody’s radar. He did the same thing when he acquired Larsson. To expect that he will go after an obvious player like Hanzal for instance, seems to be off the mark.

I expect that he will make a hockey trade for a player who is not a UFA. I also think he will be looking at a very particular skill set. Who his target(s) is/are is not immediately evident but I am convinced it will be an interesting transaction. It will also be for someone that is not top of mind.

It may involve a good Oiler player. It may include a move at the draft table. I will be watching with great interest to see what he can come up with. Will it be a RHD or a RHC or ??? I am watching with interest and a bit of excitement as well.

who

Diablo: If they value Vaatanen more than Sustr, who they developed and would have to expose if they picked up Vaatanen – they have too many good forwards to go 4-4-1. On the other hand they stand to lose Namestnikov who they also drafted and developed. I doubt they would have to give up Palat though – my first impression was that there aren’t many teams who could pick up a D-man without losing another D-man.

Using CF expansion tool – these are the teams that look like they could pick up another D without losing another top 4 D:
– Buffalo (maybe but they’d need to leave McCabe exposed)
– Detroit
– Tampa Bay (maybe but they’d need to leave Sustr exposed)
– New Jersey
– Philly
– Toronto (Zaitsev being exempt is a tremendous advantage)
– Colorado (they could go 4-41 since they don’t have a lot of forwards worth protecting)
– Dallas (maybe – they have a lot of young D-men but aside from Lindell and Klingberg, they are kind of a mixed bag in terms of quality, and Honka is exempt)

A total of 8 teams that could be in the mix to trade for the top 4 D that all the mock expansion drafts have told us will be exposed – Brodin, Johnson, DeHaan/Hamonic, Vaatanen.

Conclusion – most of these good D that seem like they will be available to LV will likely be traded and protected long before the expansion draft occurs. LV will be choosing from a list filled with 3rd pairing D and AHL guys who have yet to make the jump and are no longer waiver exempt.

I think edmonton is in an excellent position to trade for a top 4 dman and protect 4 4 1. Once you get past Drai, Nuge Eberle and Lucic they don’t really have another impact forward to protect. And if they use Eberle as part of a trade package they can protect Kassian or Maroon.

Pouzar

This was written by Willis on Mar 8 about the Oilers Penalty Kill

“Mark Letestu, the team’s most-used forward, sticks out. I don’t know if he’s overworked or has a nagging injury or what’s happening, but Edmonton has gone from allowing 52 shots per hour with him on the ice to 79 since January 1. Unsurprisingly, the team’s goals-against rate has more than doubled, too. Given his importance to the PK, this is catastrophic, and if he can’t figure things out he’ll need to have his role reduced in the postseason.”

https://oilersnation.com/2017/03/08/edmonton-oilers-must-fix-their-penalty-kill-before-the-postseason/

Pouzar

rickithebear,

What metrics are you using for PK effectiveness and where does Letestu rank?

Diablo

stush18: Why not to Tampa for one of their forwards tho? A second round pick doesn’t do Anaheim much good right now

If they value Vaatanen more than Sustr, who they developed and would have to expose if they picked up Vaatanen – they have too many good forwards to go 4-4-1. On the other hand they stand to lose Namestnikov who they also drafted and developed. I doubt they would have to give up Palat though – my first impression was that there aren’t many teams who could pick up a D-man without losing another D-man.

Using CF expansion tool – these are the teams that look like they could pick up another D without losing another top 4 D:
– Buffalo (maybe but they’d need to leave McCabe exposed)
– Detroit
– Tampa Bay (maybe but they’d need to leave Sustr exposed)
– New Jersey
– Philly
– Toronto (Zaitsev being exempt is a tremendous advantage)
– Colorado (they could go 4-41 since they don’t have a lot of forwards worth protecting)
– Dallas (maybe – they have a lot of young D-men but aside from Lindell and Klingberg, they are kind of a mixed bag in terms of quality, and Honka is exempt)

A total of 8 teams that could be in the mix to trade for the top 4 D that all the mock expansion drafts have told us will be exposed – Brodin, Johnson, DeHaan/Hamonic, Vaatanen.

Conclusion – most of these good D that seem like they will be available to LV will likely be traded and protected long before the expansion draft occurs. LV will be choosing from a list filled with 3rd pairing D and AHL guys who have yet to make the jump and are no longer waiver exempt.

stush18

rickithebear,

Do you think khaira would develop into something useful using your metrics?

rickithebear

The only
1st comp
Top 60 EVA60
Top 60 HDSH60
Top 60 EVGA60
Top 60 PKGA60
Dman in the game last 3 years
Adam Larsson

He is worth 2 times as much as a top 125 forward in the cup core.

rickithebear

In the current cap world, offence is valued more than defence.
Though i have been personally told ny hd sh theory will change that.
I have always broken a players value down by unit play and what a player with an above avg to elite unit skill set count in the cap world.

A good face off center with anove average pk skills is going to get 1.75 to 2 million.

Were forwards are most valued.
Lued is in off production.
Top 20 PvP even off production gets centers 3.5-5 million.
PP production is rewarded the most 3-4 million.

We have letestu at 1.8M
Currently our only strong FO and Pk center.
And
An elite pp forward.
Just afew points short of 16 goals 39P top 125 forward.

We are getting 3 M in current cap value for free!

Fuck yeah you protect him!

I take D. King and his Elite Pk as a UFA signing over Khaira every day!

stush18

Diablo: My guess is one of Vaatanen, Brodin or Jack Johnson goes to NJ – right now their D expansion protection list consists of Greene, Severson and a bunch of 3rd pairing guys. They have extra 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to peddle, and are perfectly positioned to take place of the pre-expansion market. Can’t wait for the furor and revisionist history around here when that happens ….

(I’d still take Larsson over any of those guys)

Why not to Tampa for one of their forwards tho? A second round pick doesn’t do Anaheim much good right now

Diablo

stush18: Yup to Tampa for palat is my guess.

My guess is one of Vaatanen, Brodin or Jack Johnson goes to NJ – right now their D expansion protection list consists of Greene, Severson and a bunch of 3rd pairing guys. They have extra 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to peddle, and are perfectly positioned to take place of the pre-expansion market. Can’t wait for the furor and revisionist history around here when that happens ….

(I’d still take Larsson over any of those guys)

theDjdj

Is it too much to claim a part of the Predators victory? The Ducks look spent after the 7 game series against us. Looks like the refs called the series equitably and it buried the Ducks.

stush18

godot10: No.I think they go 7-3-1.Bieksa waives his NMC.They protect Lindholm, Manson and one of Fowler or Vatanen. And trade the one of Fowler or Vatanen that they don’t protect. Theodore and Montour are exempt.So they trade Fowler or Vatanen for a forward, and they will protect the forward.

Yup to Tampa for palat is my guess.

digger50

godot10: No.I think they go 7-3-1.Bieksa waives his NMC.They protect Lindholm, Manson and one of Fowler or Vatanen. And trade the one of Fowler or Vatanen that they don’t protect. Theodore and Montour are exempt.So they trade Fowler or Vatanen for a forward, and they will protect the forward.

How about if they trade for a first round pick and a prospect that does not need protected? Thoughts?

godot10

theDjdj: yeah true. Do you think the ducks consider 4/4 and look at moving Silfvberg?

God I would love Rakell on the team. Wonder what the ask would.

No. I think they go 7-3-1. Bieksa waives his NMC. They protect Lindholm, Manson and one of Fowler or Vatanen. And trade the one of Fowler or Vatanen that they don’t protect. Theodore and Montour are exempt. So they trade Fowler or Vatanen for a forward, and they will protect the forward.

Scungilli Slushy

MrEd:
That said, Ryan Getzlaf is an incredible player of the hockey.

MrEd:
The Ducks deserve to be done.
That brand is damaged IMO.

Mr Getzlaf plays well enough when allowed to, but he can now take first place from equally low teammate Kesler in the antiquated and easiest way, ‘win at all costs’ hockey.

They are dinosaurs who did surprisingly well with their dinosaur coach. I hope the teams that come to play the game dominate those types and give us a break for a while. Especially our guys.

Scungilli Slushy

Jethro Tull:
Thoughts and prayers for people of Manchester.

Absolutely

theDjdj

godot10: They have Perry and Silverberg and Rakell as right-shooting wingers. So I don’t think they make that deal.

yeah true. Do you think the ducks consider 4/4 and look at moving Silfvberg?

God I would love Rakell on the team. Wonder what the ask would.

MrEd

Radiohead. Man

Diablo

MrEd:
Jethro Tull,

Always appropriate.

I think he means Manchester, England – absolutely horrific thing bombing a stadium full of kids.
Thoughts and prayers indeed – I can’t imagine that being my kid being caught up in that.

MrEd

That said, Ryan Getzlaf is an incredible player of the hockey.

MrEd

The Ducks deserve to be done.
That brand is damaged IMO.

MrEd

Jethro Tull,

Always appropriate.

Diablo

Woot! The Ducks are done. Couldn’t have happened to a douchier team.

MrEd

I’m hoping:
-that Kassian and Pitlick get signed for at least next year and that the Eberle and Pouliot contracts can be turned into a steady RD and Hanzal. Money matched in the short term for sure.
-The Sek situation will be washed with a good LD vet 1 year signing.
-that Talbot does not have to repeat last years performance under this years circumstance. Back it up.

3 points.

jimmers2

BBQ Duck on special tonight in Nashville! Normally that would be tasty but these are stringy, bitter and filthy ducks.

And Bieksa is trying to look the toughest of the lot! Ha!

godot10

theDjdj: Then do we trade Eberle for Vatanen (or maybe Mason) then? We gain 2m in salary clearance. But we lose a significant scoring talent. Do you make that deal?

They have Perry and Silverberg and Rakell as right-shooting wingers. So I don’t think they make that deal.

digger50

Take that Ducks!

Getzlaf think about all your jack-assery when you write out that 10,000 dollar cheque.

Jethro Tull

Thoughts and prayers for people of Manchester.

theDjdj

I say we have two minutes before we start dealing too. Excited for the league to see Nashville into the finals.

theDjdj

godot10: They don’t need Pouliot anymore.Ritchie and Kase and other young guys are stepping up. They will aim higher for a scoring forward when trading Vatanen or Fowler.

Toronto is looking for a RD.Tampa is looking for a RD.Colorado is looking for multiple D.New Jersey needs multiple D.Florida needs a LD.

Then do we trade Eberle for Vatanen (or maybe Mason) then? We gain 2m in salary clearance. But we lose a significant scoring talent. Do you make that deal?

Rake 2.0

Did not one person throw their hat for that goal?

theDjdj

JDI: Considering they paid Maroon as the Oilers challenged them for dominance in the Pacific division, I’m not sure the Ducks have an appetite for helping the Oilers again.

Very true. Chiarelli is especially talented at squeezing value out of these smaller deals

godot10

theDjdj:
I do wonder if something can’t be worked out with the ducks. They stand to lose a significant member of their D core. Send them Benoit and maybe our third round pick and we take Vatanen.

Means we expose Letestu but as LT mentions, a lot of his production can be replicated by others. Especially if we run the Centres Three, I would expect Nugent-Hopkins to cover the PK time and potentially Puljajarvi or Vantanen to fill the PP production.

Khaira or Free Agent (Desharnais?) to backfill the fourth line Centre role.

They don’t need Pouliot anymore. Ritchie and Kase and other young guys are stepping up. They will aim higher for a scoring forward when trading Vatanen or Fowler.

Toronto is looking for a RD. Tampa is looking for a RD. Colorado is looking for multiple D. New Jersey needs multiple D. Florida needs a LD.

JD_Wry

theDjdj: I do wonder if something can’t be worked out with the ducks.

Considering they paid Maroon as the Oilers challenged them for dominance in the Pacific division, I’m not sure the Ducks have an appetite for helping the Oilers again.

theDjdj

I do wonder if something can’t be worked out with the ducks. They stand to lose a significant member of their D core. Send them Benoit and maybe our third round pick and we take Vatanen.

Means we expose Letestu but as LT mentions, a lot of his production can be replicated by others. Especially if we run the Centres Three, I would expect Nugent-Hopkins to cover the PK time and potentially Puljajarvi or Vantanen to fill the PP production.

Khaira or Free Agent (Desharnais?) to backfill the fourth line Centre role.

MrEd

Mark Letestu gets my blessing to anchor the 4th line next year for sure.
The IP signing is good business.

MrEd

Mark Letestu will be the oldest player (barring a weird signing) on our team next year. He’s 32.
Sek and Russell are 30.

JD_Wry

Kinger_Oil.redux: not my cup of tea

Try making your tea with poppy seeds.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Great post LT!

– I had to turn that song off: not my cup of tea. Radiohead: I can listen to one song every once in awhile, but his voice doesn’t haven’t a range, and I find their tone depressing

– It is a nice validation when you put players in the position to succeed: they have slotted him beautifully this year. I recall last year, too many minutes as 3C hurt. Your numbers for Letetsu-Lander-Kassian are quality: won’t happen but that’s a solid 4rth line next year

Diablo

J-Bo: Right wing is actually probably the only thing they couldn’t use as it is their strongest position – in agreement with GODOT here. After reading Scott Cullen’s work over at TSN, Gudas has some value and would require something of value in return. I’m not sure we have anything else the Flyers would want outside of what we wouldn’t want to give. Nuge is simply too valuable to be traded for Gudas straight across in my mind. Maybe a bigger trade? Nuge, the 22nd overall, plus a prospect for Gudas and the second overall? This seems too outlandish. I like Gudas though, I think you are right LT that he would be an ideal pick-up. Good possession, decent points, Chiarelli type. Thoughts?

I love Gudas on my fantasy team – on the real life Edmonton Oilers, not so much – too many dumb penalties.

Much rather prefer the way Larsson dishes out the violence without taking penalties.

Phily’s D is similar to Edmonton’s – in fact they have a leftorium that makes ours look paltry by comparison. We don’t match up as a great trading partner for them.

J-Bo

Lowetide: I don’t have a specific deal in mind and haven’t really looked at the Flyers. DO they need wingers?

Right wing is actually probably the only thing they couldn’t use as it is their strongest position – in agreement with GODOT here. After reading Scott Cullen’s work over at TSN, Gudas has some value and would require something of value in return. I’m not sure we have anything else the Flyers would want outside of what we wouldn’t want to give. Nuge is simply too valuable to be traded for Gudas straight across in my mind. Maybe a bigger trade? Nuge, the 22nd overall, plus a prospect for Gudas and the second overall? This seems too outlandish. I like Gudas though, I think you are right LT that he would be an ideal pick-up. Good possession, decent points, Chiarelli type. Thoughts?

godot10

Lowetide: I don’t have a specific deal in mind and haven’t really looked at the Flyers. DO they need wingers?

No. They are already paying too many forwards too much, and they are paying lots of money to Voracek, Simmonds, and even Read on RW.

JD_Wry

Lowetide: DO they need wingers?

And DO they have a glut of RH defenders?

I don’t know the answer, but there aren’t many teams in that situation.

J-Bo

Are you thinking Eberle for Gudas LT?

JD_Wry

leadfarmer,

I’m sure that the Oilers have pulled that off fairly recently.

leadfarmer

Can’t remember a 5 min pp without a single shot on goal

JD_Wry

Subban needs to quit the fancy stuff.