RE 16-17 BENOIT POULIOT: JUST

I call it a bad season from a good hockey player, many call it something else. All kinds of whispers about effort surfaced around November, you can call it issue framing but often it’s a distant early warning signal for trade or buyout. He was poor. He is probably gone. I would not bet against him recovering his career and having another solid run in another town, the key words in this sentence being another town. (Just)

BENOIT POULIOT 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.08 (10th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 0.00 (57 minutes on the 5×4)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 48.3
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -1.6
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 41.4
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -6.1 (33 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 77 shots/10.4%
  • Boxcars: 76gp, 8-6-14
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

  • RE 16-17: 62gp, 17-22-39 0.629
  • Actual 16-17: 76gp, 8-6-14 0.184
  • Source
  1. Wow. Yeah. Very poor.
  2. This is your guy, right? Yes. Supported the signing, enjoy watching him play.
  3. Are you ready to admit you were wrong? I think it’s important to separate Pouliot’s season from his previous established level of ability. He was an effective two-way winger, before his poor season. The only question from my point of view is can he get back to previous level?
  4. So you’re not ready to admit you’re wrong? One of the things that slows progressive dialogue is the idea that things are black and white in every case. I was wrong about his season, the RE tells you that much. Again, the question now is what kind of seasons can we expect moving forward. Wrong as rain on the season, not convinced the player is as over as some suggest.
  5. Why do you think he can recover? Pouliot will be 31 in September, that’s young enough to have several good years even for a role player. While he didn’t score a lot, and his possession numbers were off, he is not far removed from solid to good numbers across the board (2015-16). Absolutely worth another year, in my opinion, before buy out.
  6. Will Edmonton buy him out? I believe so, probably with extreme prejudice.
  7. Will he flush out of the league like so many Oilers before? No, for two reasons. First, the team was successful. Second, he can play. Pouliot helped on PK, and has an NHL game.
  8. Why should they keep him? The left wing is a weak spot on the roster, with Patrick Maroon, Milan Lucic and Benoit Pouliot holding back only Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira and Tyler Benson (plus maybe Joey Laleggia). I also think it is reasonable to suggest he will recover from his eight goal season and post a stronger number.
  9. So what? Pouliot and Maroon scored 35 combined goals this year. Are you certain the ratio is pure skill from Maroon? Or can we assume luck and linemates were part of the score? What’s more, are we certain this ratio will be the same next season?
  10. So a lot can change in the next year? By the time Patrick Maroon’s contract expires, will the Oilers feel the same way? If Pouliot received big minutes with Connor McDavid, suspect the numbers would spike as they have with other wingers. They did play well together in 2015-16.
  11. Proof? He enjoyed his time with McDavid (2.94/60 5×5; 53.6 percent Corsi for percentage) and McDavid enjoyed his time with Pouliot (3.36/60 5×5; same Corsi 5×5) in 2015-16.
  12. Why didn’t McLellan use him there in 16-17? Why didn’t McLellan use him there in 16-17?
  13. Did the coach have an issue with him? Pouliot was hurt and took forever to get back, there were murmurs about the player not being ready. That may have been injury or they may have been displeased about his conditioning. Difficult to read the tea leaves, beyond an outrageous period early where Pouliot took costly penalties all in a row. It was astounding, some reputation penalties and others deserved. Damn near buried him with the coach.
  14. Did it reach the media? Oh yes. David Staples gave a play-by-play of a conversation between Jason Gregor and Ryan Rishaug in the late fall. Lots of interesting things there.
  15. Will they buy him out? Yes. I have already answered this question.
  16. When? First window, so that’s about two weeks away.
  17. Give me two good moments from Pouliot this season. Outdoor game, score is 2-0, Jets bobble the puck coming out of the zone. Astute play by Nuge creates turnover, brilliant backpass from Pouliot and then a good/lucky shot by Kassian shelf.
  18. Another one? Screened Martin Jones on the David Desharnais overtime winner, Game 5 at Rogers Place.
  19. If they don’t buy him out, what will that mean? Peter Chiarelli has traded him to Las Vegas in an expansion deal.
  20. If they don’t buy him out, what will that mean? Tyler Dellow left notes.
  21. Where would you play him? On a line with Nuge and Kassian or Slepyshev. I would also play the hell out of him on the penalty kill and would not hesitate to move him above Lucic if 27 continues to struggle at 5×5.
  22. Where will he end up? I think a smart team will grab him on the rebound and find he can be very useful. Pittsburgh, Ottawa, San Jose, Calgary, Minnesota, Dallas, Washington, lots of teams can use his utility.
  23. Is Chiarelli making a mistake? Pouliot makes a lot of coin and money’s too tight to mention, so it isn’t like they are going to do it for no reason. That said, Pouliot is an NHL veteran at a position that is not covered overwhelmingly.
  24. Is Chiarelli making a mistake? My guess is yes.
  25. Why this song? Great tune, one of several I considered for Pouliot. The ‘get the stink off’ reference is obvious and the general negative tone of the song fits. I think the melody offers a glimmer of hope and that fits, too. The tasteful guitar lines really add to the song’s appeal, I think Pouliot adds to a group of forwards with aggressive forechecking and what they used to call heady play. The song fits.

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20 Responses to "RE 16-17 BENOIT POULIOT: JUST"

  1. Stud Muffin says:

    I don’t believe they will buy him out, at least not this year.
    I think he can still be a useful player, they’ll probably ship him to Vegas somehow.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I absolutely hate the idea of a buyout and extending a cap hit for 2 years, 3 years in to the McDavid 2nd contract era.

    Is there not a market for this player at $3M ($1M retained) or $2M ($2M retained)?

    I can’t believe that we couldn’t dispose of the player without taking a bad contract bad if we retain.

    I don’t think the Oilers have any other retained salary (so this should qualify under the rules (only permitted to retain salary on 3 players at once, can only retain up to 15% of the upper cap, etc.) and not handcuff us in the future if we need to do it with another player).

    How is that not better than a buyout which extends the cap hit?

  3. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I absolutely hate the idea of a buyout and extending a cap hit for 2 years, 3 years in to the McDavid 2nd contract era.

    Is there not a market for this player at $3M ($1M retained) or $2M ($2M retained)?

    I can’t believe that we couldn’t dispose of the player without taking a bad contract bad if we retain.

    I don’t think the Oilers have any other retained salary (so this should qualify under the rules (only permitted to retain salary on 3 players at once, can only retain up to 15% of the upper cap, etc.) and not handcuff us in the future if we need to do it with another player).

    How is that not better than a buyout which extends the cap hit?

    Oilers have one more year of the Korpikoski buyout and an overage of about $850,000. Pouliot would of course add to it.

  4. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t think he gets bought out. Pou at 2-2.5 mil has value to a team. I think he gets traded with salary retained for scraps

  5. norm_klassen says:

    You do it to yourself; you do; and that’s what really hurts!
    Good tune lol

  6. Diablo says:

    There’s still a decent chance that LV picks Pouliot, especially if Chia provides them with an incentive, like one of our 3rd round picks. On a poor team like LV without much scoring depth, Pouliot will likely recover his scoring totals, which will allow McPhee to move him down the line for more picks. He’ll be able to play is previous aggressive forecheck game, and take O-zone penalties without fear of getting benched, because LV won’t have anyone else who can produce much offence.

    I also would not buy him out this season. If TMac gets sick of him, they can bury him in the minors like Fayne or Lupul him the moment he gets hurt.

  7. digger50 says:

    I felt Pou and others were painted with the stink of the old Oilers. As any boss coming in, he or they look for “the problem” and of course assume they are smarter and know more than the old boss.

    Pou, Eberle, Nuge, Hall and more were all getting the stink eye.

    Right or wrong Hall was moved, and so was Shultz. I think this is important because that group had bonded and I don’t think they were fully onboard with another dam coach coming in to tell them how shitty they are.

    I thought Eberle and Nuge finally turned the corner only after The Devils game in Edmonton. Pou maybe wanted to turn the corner. But his penalties kept him in the doghouse. Rift never healed and yes he will play on another team, but simply cannot play another game in Edmonton.

    I was not a fan of Pou. Too soft and inconsistent, but he has talent, deserves credit and a spot on third line somewhere.

    Edit: all my speculation of course, just guessing Pouliots decline had as much to do with personalities and people management as it did with on ice performance this year.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Oilers have one more year of the Korpikoski buyout and an overage of about $850,000. Pouliot would of course add to it.

    Sure, but I don’t understand how that has anything to do with anything in my post.

    The Korpi buyout hit is there next year no matter what – as will a Pouliot buyout hit or retained salary hit.

    I was referring to the fact that a team can only retain salary on 3 players at one time – i don’t think that includes boughtout players.

    Anyways, care to posit an opinion on the ability to trade the players without taking on a bad contract at at a cap hit of $2M-$3M and any thoughts on how a buyout is a better option?

  9. JDI says:

    I tuned in especially for the anthem in Nashville.

    Hope the game doesn’t suck that badly.

  10. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Anyways, care to posit an opinion on the ability to trade the players without taking on a bad contract at at a cap hit of $2M-$3M and any thoughts on how a buyout is a better option?

    The Oilers may have had an option for something along those lines, three weeks on the 97 line might have helped that cause. As it is, you can find a more attractive looking option on pretty much any team based on the boxcars.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sure, based off the box-cars of one year, Pouliot looks quite poor.

    With that said, he has a body of work in the NHL than encompasses much more than one year.

    Sure, there likely isn’t a market for the player at $4M X2 but I can’t believe there isn’t a market for him at $2.5 X 2.

    To me, I just don’t see how a salary-retained trade isn’t better than a buy-out.

    I’d even prefer to keep him the roster over a buyout – he will obviously bounce back somewhat and, worse case scenario, we buy him out next year and only add 1 year of a dead cap hit to the McDdavid 2nd contract.

  12. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I’d even prefer to keep him the roster over a buyout

    We are agreed.

  13. buck yoakam says:

    JDI,

    that was so weak….sorry…hang them up martina……

  14. --hudson-- says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree at $2M, the value for Pouliot seems about right. Here are LW from last year with a cap between $1.5 – 2.5M:

    PLAYER, GP, POINTS, SALARY
    Jason Zucker, 79, 47, $2M
    Patrick Maroon, 81, 42, $2M
    Sven Baertschi, 68, 35, $1.7M
    Jason Chimera, 82, 33, $2M
    Antoine Roussel, 60, 27, $2.2M
    Marcus Foligno, 80, 23, $2.25M
    Blake Comeau, 77, 20, $2.4M
    Dwight King, 80, 16, $2.1M
    Matt Calvert, 65, 15, $2.2M
    Michael Raffl, 52, 11, $2.35M
    Jiri Hudler, 32, 11, $2M
    Matt Hendricks, 42, 7, $1.85M

    These are the LW UFA’s with at least 10 GP. So for a team looking for a LW, if there are any, Pouliot could be a cost effective option with salary retained.

    YER, GP, POINTS, SALARY
    Thomas Vanek, 68, 48, $2.6M
    Patrick Marleau, 82, 46, $6.5M
    Kris Versteeg, 69, 37, $0.95M
    Chris Kunitz, 71, 29, $3.55M
    Lauri Korpikoski, 69, 20, $1M
    Patrick Sharp, 48, 18, $5M
    Scottie Upshall, 73, 18, $0.9M
    Rene Bourque, 65, 18, $0.65M
    Viktor Stalberg, 75, 16, $1.5M
    Dwight King, 80, 16, $2.1M
    Jiri Hudler, 32, 11, $2M
    Matt Hendricks, 42, 7, $1.85M
    Drew Miller, 55, 7, $1.025M
    Harry Zolnierczyk, 24, 4, $0.575M
    Cory Conacher, 11, 4, $0.575M
    Tanner Glass, 11, 2, $1M
    Tom Sestito, 13, 2, $0.575M
    Luke Gazdic, 11, 0, $0.7M

    For the record a Pouliot buyout is $1.333M x 4 years according to CapFriendly.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    It takes a certain kind of person to have the patience to keep a fish in their pocket through 2 periods

  16. JDI says:

    leadfarmer,

    Excuse me sir, but is that a dead fish in your pocket, or are you a well endowed necropheliac on his way home from the morgue?

  17. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Players have been traded for literally nothing. Future considerations that don’t have a future.

    Pouliot was good in the playoffs. I don’t believe nobody wants him. Take a 2M player back and he’s affordable.

    The question is how bad does Chia want to move salary. Fayne as well, he is a right shot NHL defensman not old. I can’t believe there is no market for him, at all. Take a seventh rounder or futures.

  18. stephen sheps says:

    JDI, leadfarmer,

    nah, just a preds fan. y’all don’t understand the south

  19. russ99 says:

    Lots of rumbles that Pouliot didn’t buy in to what the staff wanted from him, and they tried to deal him all season with no takers.

    So if there’s a way to get a Vegas to take him (IMO it will take a prospect and a pick) they’ll do that, if not he’ll be bought out.

    With his performance and rep of not finding common ground with coaching, he’ll latch on somewhere but with a much lower salary, in a one-year show me deal.

  20. jfry says:

    I think it’s now obvious that yak was zooming pouliot. None of us saw that coming. 😉

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