LET’S GO ALREADY

by Lowetide

I don’t know about you but it feels like the summer fun is past due. So, in the absence of actual deals, let’s see if we can make up a few that can at least start a conversation. First, let’s have a quick review.

PETER CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST

We are going to separate the priorities for now, as two main items (contracts for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl) are going to be part of July’s business. Since we are talking June events, I’m going to list only June priorities at this time.

  1. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Iiro Pakarinen signing frees Letestu protection, leaves Jujhar Khaira likely exposed). 
  2. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster.
  3. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen.
  4. Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes until he returns.
  5. Find a C-R who can help the offense and cover off where Leon isn’t at the time.
  6. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline.

Fair? We’re going to set aside the two big contracts but let’s have a starting point before the trades go down. Here is a glimpse at the roster with Leon signed and the rest of the roster handled internally. We are going on a $77 million cap.

PROJECTED BARE BONES LINEUP 2016-17

As we have discussed before the Oilers don’t have to make a move until that move makes sense. There’s even more cap available if the club places Jesse Puljujarvi in the minors. I haven’t bought out Benoit Pouliot nor Mark Fayne, so there’s plenty of room to wheel. Looking at this roster, we can see why the needs above are noted. I am going on the premise that Griffin Reinhart is chosen in the expansion draft and that the offers for Jordan Eberle are well shy of acceptable. Let’s make some trades.

  1. Oilers trade Anton Slepyshev and 2018 third-round pick to Las Vegas for RHD Alex Petrovic (I’ll estimate his contract at $2M per season). I get it, Slepyshev has a lot going for him and could emerge as a 15-20 goal man in the right situation. You have to give in order to get, and the Oilers have Jesse Puljujarvi and Drake Caggiula who can play the wing. It’s an overpay, I get that too, but that jives with the Chiarelli style.
  2. Oilers sign Tyler Pitlick to a one-year, $900,000 deal. This serves as insurance in case Puljujarvi can’t make a go of it.
  3. Oilers sign Brian Campbell to a one-year, $3 million deal. I’m assuming this gets it done, possible Campbell gets more on the open market. As a one-year option, to replace Sekera until healthy, I like it. Gives the team some extra money to use during the summer, too.
  4. Oilers sign Justin Williams to a two-year, $8 million deal. I’m not sure of the price and it uses some 2018-19 cap, but this would be a helluva get in my opinion. I also considered Sam Gagner for this spot.

Before we post the final roster, let’s go back to the to-do list and see what we’ve done in what would become a fairly active summer.

PROJECTED IMPACT OF PROJECTED SOLUTIONS

  1. Negotiate the expansion draft rapids without giving up a valuable piece of the future. (Griffin Reinhart is an acceptable loss). 
  2. Find a way to trade Benoit Pouliot off the roster. (Didn’t get this done, but I’m not that upset. Pouliot may recover and fetch a handsome return down the line). 
  3. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen. (I would be pleased to see Petrovic as the add, there are several out there this summer). 
  4. Find a stopgap measure to replace Andrej Sekera’s minutes until he returns. (Campbell is an excellent choice, no certainty he’d be willing to sign with Edmonton). 
  5. Find a C-R who can help the offense and cover off where Leon isn’t at the time. (Justin Williams doesn’t really fit, but he is such an outstanding potential addition I picked him over Gagner).
  6. Make enough cap room to get everyone in under the number with enough room to spare for the trade deadline. (Sekera’s LTIR does the trick here, getting him back on the roster might require a deadline flush of a superfluous veteran). 

PROJECTED ROSTER 2017-18

I like this roster and there are still ways to improve it. Sending down Jesse Puljujarvi, parking Mark Fayne in the minors, plenty of options available to improve things. One negative? If Leon moves to RW the team has no obvious center to fill. Perhaps you can find a better option (Joe Thornton?) and we’ll discuss.

PLENTY OF OFFERS FOR EBERLE

Rumors this morning about plenty of offers for Jordan Eberle, but that can be misleading. If I offer you ten cents on the dollar, that’s an offer but not a good one. Suspect Eberle is either moved for wildly disappointing return or that he remains in Edmonton for 2017-18.

 

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Kinger_Oil.redux

– Great post LT! Getting a vet D on a short deal plus another D who might fit in long-term is ideal.

– You reflect perfectly this lull: Stanley Cup is too far into June (unless of course the OIL are in it!)

– So I will keep posting this as I get responses: The Arm-Chair GM contest: winner gets a paypal contribution:

1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?:
11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

Please send in the following format. Entries eligible untill the first transaction and/or Vegas draft:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

John Chambers

The Oilers IMO aren’t in a position to make a move (eg Eberle for a D) in advance of the expansion draft.

The time to pounce on getting a RHD is right after the draft, and in all possibility in a deal with Vegas.

Eg. Eberle to Vegas for Petrovic and Adam Lowry.

That’s my guess on the major move of the summer.

Brantford Boy

I like the mock roster… mostly because of the veteran presence… with it, it fills the holes as well as provides the extra depth that is probably required to reach the next round of the playoffs where we fell short. This experience will be vital to the younger players in addition to the 13 games they played this year. Mr Williams = Clutch!

Ducey

Don’t like the Slepy trade. He showed a whole new gear in the playoffs. I’d keep him.

Plus Vegas will be drowning in 3/4 defensemen. No need to overpay. Next years second rounder likely does it for Petrovic.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– And going back to last post re: luck involved in winning games. While its true, I think over the last 10 years, the Cup does identify generally the best team. Maybe not every year, but:

Pitts x 3 (I’m assuming they win this Cup)
CHI x 3
L.A x 2
Detroit (the last of their run)
Anaheim: only 1 Cup but they were a great team
Carolina: the “weakest” winner in last 10

– With the Cap of course its really hard to keep the teams together, and they have to retool it seems every year to get under cap, but this is modern parity hockey IMO: good teams have a 8-10 year window to compete for multiple cups.

– This is our window. With “luck” OIL were good enough this year to have won (read: variance)

TO10801

John Chambers,

I think post-expansion is the play as well, unless we are getting a F or expansion exempt D back. Vegas will have some interesting pieces so it might be worth it to wait and see what may shake loose after expansion than to rush it and get a lower return. THe oilers have a nice expansion list, no need to screw it up.

N64

“Oilers trade Anton Slepyshev and 2018 third-round pick to Las Vegas for RHD Alex Petrovic (I’ll estimate his contract at $2M per season)….It’s an overpay, I get that too, but that jives with the Chiarelli style”

LT, so if that’s an overpay surely Chia and McPhee add in that Vegas does not pick Khaira, Reinhart, or Brossoit. And Reinhart is the 7D next year not Fayne. Now that is Chiarelli style, right???

dustrock

Whoever it was that said most of the trades will come after the expansion draft, I think this is right.

It’s going to be a crazy time, and I think GMs are going to sit back, watch the Nevada dust settle, and then figure out what to do next.

TO10801

dustrock,

That’s how its starting to sound. SOme teams will try to dump a contract on vegas (which may also happen post-expansion) and others will try to influence who Vegas picks. After that is when the trades will start to get interesting as teams don’t need to worry about their lists for expansion anymore.

jtblack

Kinger_Oil.redux,

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

= 12 Years 🙂

who

I can follow everything you do until we get to Justin Williams. If we are keeping Eberle I see no reason to sign Williams. He’s had a good career and scored some huge goals but he may never do this again and at his age he could fall off the cliff at any moment. Don’t get all the love for this player. Would prefer to find a younger cheaper center. Oilers need to look forward not backwards.

jtblack

I think of all of LT”s move the 2 most pressing are finding 1 competent RD and 1 competent LD …

Last year was the first year in forever that the Oilers iced a competitive Top 4 D … We require the same this year until Reg comes back …

As far as the Forwards, it’s just a puzzle that will work itself out .. If Ebs stays, we can pencil in 20 G and 50 Pts … if he’s moved, we assume a decent asset is coming back to help the lineup somewhere (forward or D) …

This looks to me like we have lots of cap space to ice a deep roster AND we will have $$ to play at the deadline … Can’t wait to see how it works out …

jtblack

Lowetide,

I thought Slep played very well in the Playoffs. He can bang, crash, play Top 6 or bottom 6. I would not want to move him, especially if Eberle goes …

Klima's_Bucket

Can’t find it right now, but I believe Brian Campbell has said he’s either signing in Chicago or retiring FWIW.

jtblack

I hope PC brings in a 3C who is versatile … I think TMac will be switching Leon back and forth from McD’s wing to Centering his own line all year, just like he did in the Playoffs ..

RNH will run as 2C most of the year … bring in a 3C like Ryan, Bonino, Boyle …

Last year PC was supposed to bring in a competent Back Up Goalie and a veteran RW … he failed in both areas … so although we think bringing in some 3/4 D Men and a 3C should be doable, who knows?

It’s an overpay, I get that too, but that jives with the Chiarelli style.- IF this “style” continues, PC will have the Oilers in Cap Hell with limited prospects in no time … I agree he has overpayed on some deals and found value on lesser deals … He needs to start “fleecing” other GM’s .. He is not in a position of desperation like he was at the start of his Oilers tenure, so there is no excuse for weak sauce returns on deals ..

nvan97

Kinger_Oil.redux,

1 Reinhart
2 Kole Lind
3 Yes. + a 3rd for Slavin
4 No
5 Ellis
6 10.5/3year
7 52/5 years
8 48/6 years
9 Russell, Markov
10 Hanzal
11 Yes
12 2

The Amish Man

Klima’s_Bucket:
Can’t find it right now, but I believe Brian Campbell has said he’s either signing in Chicago or retiring FWIW.

I saw this too a while back and found the article. I would love Brian Campbell as a stop gap but seems like an unlikely scenario. http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2017/4/22/15394200/brian-campbell-blackhawks-or-retirement-2017-nhl-free-agency

John Chambers

jtblack,

3C is, or should be, a major target area.

That’s why Eberle to LV for a RD + 3C is the play.

Pysyk and Sissons
Petrovic and Lowry
Pulock and Girgensons

If the defenseman’s last name starts with P, we want him!

Kinger_Oil.redux

jtblack:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

= 12 Years

– Yeah I was debating not mentioning Carolina, and this year isn’t done: but I think looking back last 10-12 years, the Cup has identified the elite teams over that period (save Carolina)

jtblack

“Eberle is either moved for wildly disappointing return or that he remains in Edmonton for 2017-18”

What is a “fair” return for Jordan Eberle?

With complete Objectivity: Here is how I classify Eberle:

Goals: he can score and has been in the Top 20 RW for last 3 years. In a Goal starved League, this has tremendous value
Points: Good for 50 points in a down year. Pencil him in for 50 – 60 every year. Again, tremendous value
Overall Play (Anaylytics): Smarter ppl can decifer exactly what he does or doesn’t do, but I Believe from all the posts on here that Eberle’s analytics are fairly good on a broad basis
Overall Player (trying to think what other GM’s would say): Player would be considered below average defensively, below average physically (forecheck, body check), Average Skater, Average Shot, Above Average Goal and Point Producer.

Cap Hit: $6 Million. Not Great. All Big ticket players are hard to move in the Cap World. And with Cap Dollars acting as true value, I think this hurts the possible return for Ebs

jtblack

Kinger_Oil.redux,

I did touch on this before .. Is Parity an Illusion? if you look at the last 9 years it would suggest there is very little parity (Pitt, Chi, LA) own 8 of 9 if we give Pitt this year (Nashville might have something to say about this) …

I think the parity lies in the regular season and early in the playoffs. Most teams have a chance to make the playoffs and it’s also very difficult for teams to make it year after year … Early rounds of playoffs can be a coin toss …

But the Data seems to suggest, that at the end of the year, The Cream rises to the Top (at least for the last 9 years)…

Klima's_Bucket

John Chambers: If the defenseman’s last name starts with P, we want him!

Even Polak?

Ducey

John Chambers:
jtblack,

3C is, or should be, a major target area.

That’s why Eberle to LV for a RD + 3C is the play.

Pysyk and Sissons
Petrovic and Lowry
Pulock and Girgensons

If the defenseman’s last name starts with P, we want him!

Imagine the joy around here if Chia fills a D spot with Adam Pelech, Greg Pateryn, Nate Prosser, or Dalton Prout

Death By Misadventure

Has anyone done an in depth stat breakdown on Pysyk and Petrovic?

Both sound like interesting pickups, but on the surface they seem like less capable Matt Bennings. Petrovic especially seems like a younger version of Gryba and if that’s the case I hope Chia aims much higher.

Again, I have no stats to prove my brain fart so would appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction as both players seem like genuinely potential pickups.

Thanks.

John Chambers

@ Klima and Ducey

You guys r quick on the draw

Truth

“Rumors this morning about plenty of offers for Jordan Eberle, but that can be misleading. If I offer you ten cents on the dollar, that’s an offer but not a good one. Suspect Eberle is either moved for wildly disappointing return or that he remains in Edmonton for 2017-18.”

Exactly correct. Now would be the worst time to trade Eberle. You know he’s not happy about his playoff performance. My bet is he will be impressive next season, I just hope it’s for the Oilers.

Truth

I’m starting to think Vegas will select Khaira over Reinhart. Reinhart is the player we expect they pick because of his draft pedigree and the price the Oilers paid for him (so he should be the best available), but Khaira is a big, strong C who is trending in the right direction. Khaira could end up as a 4C, but also could be a 2C. Reinhart will never be more than a 5-6D, which Vegas should have no problem finding elsewhere.

Scungilli Slushy

Find a C-R who can help the offense and cover off where Leon isn’t at the time.

————-

Ryan Nugent Hopkins can do that. So if there is no RHC to get that is top 6, find a C that is bottom 6 and use Nuge to switch with Leon. I think he’d be better than Eberle.

jtblack

John Chambers,

“Petrovic and Lowry”: LT likes Petrovic. I know little about him. I think Lowry is an Excellent 3C. He’s young, huge, skates well and can contribute offensively. He’s on a good contract. No idea how he is on faceoffs

Eberle for those 2. Hmmmmm ….. not sure about that..

jtblack

John Chambers,

How about Paulk, Parrie, Poughty, Pamonic ……

Walter Sobchak

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Great post LT!Getting a vet D on a short deal plus another D who might fit in long-term is ideal.

– You reflect perfectly this lull: Stanley Cup is too far into June (unless of course the OIL are in it!)

– So I will keep posting this as I get responses: The Arm-Chair GM contest: winner gets a paypal contribution:

1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?:
11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

Please send in the following format.Entries eligible untill the first transaction and/or Vegas draft:

1 Rienhart
2 Nick Suzuki
3 Yes, NYI Hamonic
4 No
5 Brossoit
6 3 yrs 3.3 AAV
7 8 year at 11 per year for 97
8 8 years ar 7.5 per year for 29
9 Russle – Hamonic
10 Hanzel
11 No
12 4

Klima's_Bucket

There is not a lot of muscle in Florida with Gudbranson gone and Thornton retiring.
If Dale Tallon is back in charge, I suspect they would find a way to keep Petrovic at the expense of Demers/Pysyk.

Bruce McCurdy

Death By Misadventure:
Has anyone done an in depth stat breakdown on Pysyk and Petrovic?

Both sound like interesting pickups, but on the surface they seem like less capable Matt Bennings. Petrovic especially seems like a younger version of Gryba and if that’s the case I hope Chia aims much higher.

Again, I have no stats to prove my brain fart so would appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction as both players seem like genuinely potential pickups.

Thanks.

re: Pysyk & Petrovic, 2 interesting young players, saw quite a bit of both in junior (Petrovic was RNH’s teammate in Red Deer), have followed their careers with interest and am pleased to see both emerging as full-time NHLers. Takes a while to get from A to B, mind you — both guys spent parts of FOUR seasons in the AHL and are right at that nice age (25) where they have close to 200 games and are still in their RFA / “cheap” years. Both righties, to boot.

I can’t see a situation where Florida would trade one of them and leave the other exposed in the expansion process, so the play here is more likely to make Vegas an offer once they nab one of them. But to think a 2nd round pick will get it done as someone suggested doesn’t seem right; a d-man from Florida is apt to be one of the Vegans’ better pick-ups, and they’re not going to sell low. Instead, they can run an auction — lots of market for the type of player described in the immediately preceding paragraph. And while you see such players picked off the scrap heap every year, in this case Florida is not dumping anyone, they are just painted into a corner.

The teams to target pre-expansion draft are the ones with exactly one desirable defenceman they can’t protect.

Klima's_Bucket

Bruce McCurdy,

So, which of these two would you prefer to see in Edmonton?

knighttown

Man, what’s great about this place is that a guy can pose a hypothesis that he doesn’t have the skills to prove and someone like Vor can do the work to prove or disprove it. I’ve been off the site for a few days so almost missed Vor’s work but it’s tremendous.

In the May 25th morning thread Shoot the Moon at 9:18 AM Knighttown posted a thought provoking thesis about the NHL playoffs turning into a lottery.
“I’d love one of you stats people to do a correlation between being the better team (based on winning percentage) and winning playoff series. I’d bet it’s lower than it’s ever been and much lower than the other sports.
And if being the better team doesn’t correlate tightly with winning how do you build a winner?”

I won’t repost it all but you can go back to the Iiro thread to see it in all it’s glory.

Hearing it proven that 70-80% of the outcome of a hockey game would be unacceptable if I were commissioner. Said another way, having the better team is only 1/4 of the equation into winning a hockey game. Ugh.

This reminds me of the early-10’s fights I got into with tennis junkies who argued that Roger Federer would go down as a greater athlete than Tiger Woods.

Tennis is a sport designed to be dominated. It’s one on one with almost no outside elements on one of three surfaces. If I’m better than you I’m going to beat you nearly every damned time.

In golf I’ve got to beat 143 other players simultaneously on courses as wildly different as St. Andrews and Riviera all the while dealing with major outside influences like wind and lies and when the variance between a shit being good or bad (water vs green) is often infinitesmal off the face off club.

So golf to me is a game that was never meant to be dominated which makes Tiger’s accomplishments far superior than the glorious Roger. I think that fact has been proven true so far. On either side of Tiger you had the Price, Faldo, Azinger, Stewart era with great players but no dominant force. And now you’ve got Spieth, Rory, Scott, Day and a host of others making a run at dominance but never really keeping it going.

So you could stop here and say “who cares” but I can tell you many people do care. Golf was a niche sport, then it was massive and now it’s fallen off a cliff. Casual fans want to see greatness. The networks are trying to build up these new guys as “must see TV” but fans like me are just as likely to tune in on Sunday to Jon Rahm leading and Jordan Spieth home after missing the cut. And then interest wanes.

So bringing this back to hockey.

The NHL would promote Pens/Preds as Subban versus Crosby but you’re just as likely to see Colton Scissons and Jake Guentzel tip the balance of a game as you are Crosby or Subban. In-market fans like us don’t really care too much if it’s McDavid or Slepyshev that score the goals because we’re desperate in-market fans. We’re not talking local markets here and I’m aware the local ratings are great…even historic.

We’re talking the out-of-market draw. They’re going to try to draw you in with Alex Ovechkin but then you’ll watch and you’ll see he’s playing 3rd line minutes after losing his job to Andrei Burakowsky. And if you’re a casual fan you just won’t get it.

Speaking from experience, I’m a casual basketball fan. Didn’t watch an NBA game all season. Watched some Raps games in the playoffs and now the NBA Finals are must watch TV for me. I’m tuning out of the NHL and tuning into the NBA even though I FAR prefer hockey. Why is this happening now for the second year in a row?

Because I listen to sportstalk radio and hear about the greatness of Lebron and Stef and KD so I tune in to check it out and what they promise they deliver on. In last nights game I must have said WOW 25 times. Lebron was masterful scoring at will and passing like Magic Johnson. Triple-double and barely played once the outcome was settled. Stef Curry looked like Fred Astaire dancing and bobbing and weaving. In the first half he was sloppy but went to the foul line 10 times because the league calls fouls. These weren’t star-favor falls. They were non-controversial fouls because a skilled player was trying to create offense. He then found his stroke in the 3rd quarter and went nuts. He also had a triple double, only the second time two players had a triple double in the same game. And then there was Kevin Durant, a 7-footer with the footwork, ball handling and stroke of someone a foot shorter. As unguardable as anyone I’ve ever seen as long as the rules are applied and they are. And this ignores Klay, Kyrie and Kevin Love who were ALL terrific last night. And guess what, the Colton Scissons equivalents like Iman Shumpert played almost no role and that’s just the way I want it.

(As an aside, I totally get how much of a problem the NBA superteams issue is and I agree that it is a crisis that needs fixing. 1) The NBA is a star driven league and 2) the stars have all decided to congregate in a few select cities. I see the two as separate issues and believe Adam Silver will continue to try and fix the issue)

So to finally come to a point, the NHL needs to understand and accept that it has a natural flaw in that, like golf, it is a game that will always be highly dependent on luck. It should be actively working every off season to reduce that “luck” number VOR quotes down to a more reasonable target. 50%? 45%? If you don’t you’ll always have a sport that plays well in local markets who love everyone almost equally but won’t grab the attention of the casual fan who, when promised a marquee matchup, want to see them do something.

I don’t have solution but it seems likely that rule changes, enforcing the existing rules and creating way more scoring (to reduce the impact of the single random goal) would be where I’d start.

Brantford Boy

jtblack:
John Chambers,

How about Paulk, Parrie, Poughty,Pamonic ……

These sound like clones… everyone knows we can’t clone a human’s yet… the thought is laughable… much like Smart TV’s watching us, and… and… and…

Chachi

knighttown: In golf I’ve got to beat 143 other players simultaneously on courses as wildly different as St. Andrews and Riviera all the while dealing with major outside influences like wind and lies and when the variance between a shit being good or bad (water vs green) is often infinitesmal off the face off club.

If it is either water or green it is probably bad and if it continues you should consult a doctor.

Bruce McCurdy

Klima’s_Bucket:
Bruce McCurdy,

So, which of these two would you prefer to see in Edmonton?

Whichever one is available. Not sure Edmonton has much say in who that might be, unless Chia is already shipering sweet nothings into George McPhee’s ear. (“So, George, would you rather your boy play in California or Irkutsk?”)

stevezie

knighttown,

Your point on comparing greatness is great. That’s why the only pure competition is chess. No luck. None.

Of course, even that’s not true. What did you have for breakfast, what did people say to you on the way to the match, what kind of diet did your mother keep while you were in utero…

jtblack

knighttown,

I needed a coffee and a sandwich to get thru this post 🙂 But I did go back and read VOR’s post. I think this information leads to many conversations … Most of us compare today’s game to how we grew up (whether that was ’60’s, 70’s, 80’s, etc .. We compare players on point now to points in the past, teams now vs teams in the past …

The game has changed so drastically … Connor’s 100 Point season this year might be one of the most impressive ever, but it does not get the accolades because on a pure point basis it is sooo far behind so many seasons and no where close to 200 points … But Era adjusted, etc, etc .. his season deserves a lot more love .. So when Connor throws down a 125 point season (which I believe he will); it may be on par with Gretz’s 215 or Mario’s 199

As for teams. As VOR referenced, in the 80’s there were only a handful of truly competetive teams .. Edm and Cal represented the West in the Stanley Cup final 8 years in a row … in that same span only 4 teams represented the East (NYI, PHI, MTL, BOS) ..

In the last 6 years the West has been represented by 4 diff teams. The East by 5 diff teams …

So as Oilers fans, although a Dynasty of 3 – 5 Cups is engrained in our memory, what is realistic in today’s game? 1 Cup? 2 ? Either would be Excellent in my eyes. Anything more than that would be a Bonus.

russ99

Slepyshev is part of the McDavid cluster, we need to move players who aren’t part of that cluster.

Scungilli Slushy

knighttown,

The more stable the environment, the more that ability, organization and effort rise to the top. It is a truism of the human condition.

I for one don’t like scripted like sports events. Far less excitement, tension, joy – I don”t like the lows but it’s part of a stronger experience.

I prefer and always have CFL to NFL for this reason. Hockey to other sports.

Hockey will likely always be more random (luck/bounces) than other sports because there is more going on and it’s unnatural (skates).

Humans crave fairness and justice. That hockey is fairly random is fine as long as fans feel it was all on the up and up.

russ99

Truth:
I’m starting to think Vegas will select Khaira over Reinhart.Reinhart is the player we expect they pick because of his draft pedigree and the price the Oilers paid for him (so he should be the best available), but Khaira is a big, strong C who is trending in the right direction.Khaira could end up as a 4C, but also could be a 2C. Reinhart will never be more than a 5-6D, which Vegas should have no problem finding elsewhere.

I don’t see any evidence by skillset or past performance that Khaira can be a #2 C. His good numbers in the past were draft-eligible age in an inferior league or an overager in the WHL.

Optimism is like heroin

To fill in for a stop gap for Sekera, I have read a few pieces about chara possibly moving …. not sure what it would cost or if he would want to move but at playoffs next year a defence that includes kef, larsson, chara, sekera, petrovic?, nurse and benning would be a great group with injury resistance.

Bruce McCurdy

knighttown,

Excellent post by you in response to VOR’s excellent post of last thread. Stuff like this keeps me coming back here to the comments section.

knighttown: The NHL would promote Pens/Preds as Subban versus Crosby but you’re just as likely to see Colton Scissons and Jake Guentzel tip the balance of a game as you are Crosby or Subban.

Three relevant quotes:

Me, to my wife during Game 2: “it’s 3-1 and all the goals have been scored Pontus Aberg and Jake Guentzel and Scott Wilson. In October when I cleverly avoided making any Stanley Cup predictions I’d barely heard of any of them.”

Or as I heard it stated more succinctly during the season from a correspondent: “my friends don’t watch hockey because they think it’s too random”.

Finally, an oldie but a goodie, from a bleeding & battered Jeremy Roenick: “Wake up, NHL! NHL, wake up!”

Scungilli Slushy

jtblack:
knighttown,

I needed a coffee and a sandwich to get thru this post But I did go back and read VOR’s post.I think this information leads to many conversations … Most of us compare today’s game to how we grew up (whether that was ’60’s, 70’s, 80’s, etc .. We compare players on point now to points in the past, teams now vs teams in the past …

The game has changed so drastically … Connor’s 100 Point season this year might be one of the most impressive ever, but it does not get the accolades because on a pure point basis it is sooo far behind so many seasons and no where close to 200 points …But Era adjusted, etc, etc .. his season deserves a lot more love ..So when Connor throws down a 125 point season (which I believe he will); it may be on par with Gretz’s 215 or Mario’s 199

As for teams.As VOR referenced, in the 80’s there were only a handful of truly competetive teams .. Edm and Cal represented the West in the Stanley Cup final8 years in a row …in that same span only 4 teams represented the East (NYI, PHI, MTL, BOS) ..

In the last 6 years the West has been represented by 4 diff teams. The East by 5 diff teams …

So as Oilers fans, although a Dynasty of 3 – 5 Cups is engrained in our memory, what is realistic in today’s game?1 Cup?2 ?Either would be Excellent in my eyes. Anything more than that would be a Bonus.

I don’t think there can be consecutive dynasties, but there can be teams that are able to contend over time.

The league isn’t going to stay dead puck. The ebb and flow over seasons in officiating keeps the advantage shifting around teams, the goal is parity, anybody can win.

If it stays dead puck teams will goon up and a few that do it best will dominate. If they tighten the calls teams like the Oilers will destroy opponents. We see calls tight at the start and loosing up to WWE quality by Stanley Cup time.

It would be hard to convince me that they aren’t manipulating this, Gary as the Wizard behind the curtain, given Kerry Fraser has said the league controls the officiating directly, putting any question about that to rest.

Chiarelli compensates for all this by luck and brains. He was gifted elite players. He has acquired heavy that can play. The team can play both styles.

Kinger_Oil.redux

jtblack,

– This is what I believe: the Oil are this generation of Chicago/Pittsburgh/L.A. Their outer marker is 3 Cups next 10 years: the cap ensures you can’t keep a large core, and this is by design.

– Pittsburgh (if they win), are the first back-back cup winner since Detroit 19 years ago: 1997/1998

stevezie

Kinger_Oil.redux,

I think that’s a fair assessment.

Scungilli Slushy

Bruce McCurdy: Or as I heard it stated more succinctly during the season from a correspondent: “my friends don’t watch hockey because they think it’s too random”.

Random in the role of luck, or the application of the rules?

My take is that luck doesn’t put people off. They’ll watch poker on TV. A lack of what is perceived as fairness and competence does though.