RE 16-17 PETER CHIARELLI: FAKE PLASTIC TREES

by Lowetide

Peter Chiarelli is entering his third year as Edmonton Oilers’ general manager and the team’s fortunes have improved mightily since his arrival. I called for ‘the man from town’ long before he arrived, and the cleanup has been painful and costly. We’ve reached a point where viewing his work with an unbiased eye may be impossible. Hall trade, Reinhart trade, analytics on the back burner, in many ways it feels like that scene in Planes, Trains and Automobiles where the couple in the car scream “you’re going the wrong way.” And yet, the club finished with 103 points, won a playoff round and pushed Anaheim to the brink. Which story is true? (Fake Plastic Trees)

  1. Sounds like you’re coming around on the Larsson deal? Nope, I don’t think there’s any way to reasonably suggest the Oilers got full value. I’m going to have the same opinion a decade from now, just so you know. It doesn’t mean all is lost, PC can recover from that deal (and the Reinhart trade).
  2. They almost won the division! Yes, and Larsson was a big part of it. No way to deny it. Edmonton went from having a solid defender in Jeff Petry to having a solid defender in Adam Larsson and it was an area of absolute need. Larsson has a nice range of skills and they were on display all year long. Great pass in G6 against SJS springing Leon for what might be the biggest winning goal since 2006. A fine year.
  3. You’re trying to say the trade was bad but the results were good? That’s nuts! I don’t like trading hitting for pitching any more than the next guy, but the Oilers needed something there and got it. I would have signed Demers, kept Hall, and let Lucic stay on the coast. Peter Chiarelli made a different decision and the result was a 33-point spike in the standings. If results are important, then it’s impossible to ignore the wins. Larsson was part of the solution.
  4. Which side are you arguing? I’m trying to establish reasonable and take the passion out of the situation, basically an impossible task. It was a poor value trade because there were less harmful options. Meawhile, the acquisition was a perfect fit for the team.
  5. I feel bad for your wife. You’re an idiot and an ass! You’re an ass-idiot! Nice.
  6. How many Stanley’s before you change your mind? Five? You’re missing the point. The moment in history is gone, I gave my opinion and we agree to disagree. There’s no real way to change the opinion, the moment. We move on to the results, and early days they have been good.
  7. Because you’re an asshat. Nice again.
  8. You said a minute ago Chiarelli can recover from this trade? Yes, and the Reinhart deal.
  9. By winning Stanley’s? I’d suggest the answer is more straightforward.
  10. How can he recover? PC made a bet, and it went like this. He bet that getting Larsson to plug a gigantic hole would allow the rest of the roster to settle, to find balance and structure. He was correct. He also bet that, in trading Hall (while keeping No. 4 overall) Jesse Puljujarvi (or someone else) would turn into a forward capable of pushing the river.
  11. So, JP has to be a star? Yes, or Chiarelli will need to trade him for an impact player.
  12. Leon is an impact player, that’s the Hall replacement. I don’t buy that argument, because Draisaitl comes from the MacT years. His emergence may have been a factor in PC’s evaluation, but the cleaner equation is Puljujarvi versus Hall. That’s the hill this series of moves dies on in my opinion.
  13. Last summer you thought they might trade Hall. Yes, we talked about it after the fact here, but there are many references to the possibility during the spring.
  14. What does last summer tell us about this one? Chiarelli is willing to pay in full and then some for what he feels the team needs to win.
  15. What does that mean? I think it means all assets are available, save Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, the Swedish duo on defense and Cam Talbot.
  16. He would trade the Nuge? I don’t think he would want to, but this is an unusual summer. Nuge, Puljujarvi, Nurse, No. 22 overall, hell he might end up moving more than one of them. There are some impressive names being mentioned.
  17. What does he do well? PC has been making a series of astute trades since arrival. Names like Cam Talbot, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian come to mind. I’m not saying they make up for the Hall and Reinhart deals, but the smaller deals do cushion the blow.
  18. How long can he do this? He won’t have to for much longer, the Oilers are edging nearer to a balanced roster. One more trade should do it! I’m joking.
  19. What’s the biggest trade he can make this year? Probably someone like Drew Doughty. I’d prefer they try for a volume shooter like Jeff Skinner or Evander Kane.
  20. How has Chiarelli helped with the balance? Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Matt Benning, he didn’t trade Leon in the Subban deal, et cetera. The team has been upgraded down the middle in a big way, and it shows.
  21. How far from your beloved balance photo, which I assume involves nudity? There is no clothing in the photo if that’s what you mean.
  22. How far away? I think Edmonton needs a second pairing (LH side only until Andrej Sekera is back and healthy, but that might be all year) and a C-R who can riff off whatever Leon isn’t doing at the time.
  23. What does that look like? At the low end, Brian Campbell, Alex Petrovic, Nick Bonino, maybe a more substantial backup goalie but they can do that at the deadline.
  24. At the high end? Campbell, Doughty, who the hell knows? You’re going to blow a hole in the depth chart chasing Doughty so balance is probably not going to happen.
  25. Will he go big game hunting? I didn’t think so, but the names out in the ether aren’t exactly unknowns. Could be something, could be nothing. It’s like clouds on the horizon. Could be weather, could be nothing at all.
  26. When will he be forgiven for trading Hall? He doesn’t need my forgiveness, that’s not something for me to give. I’d be thrilled with one Stanley during his time in Edmonton, and that’s a fact.
  27. Seriously? That’s it!?? Perhaps we disagree about how hard it is to win one of them, let alone five.
  28. He could have won several with Hall! Perhaps Chiarelli needs your forgiveness.
  29. Why this song? The lyrics are about deception and if this doesn’t work for the Oilers then Peter Chiarelli won’t be remembered fondly in our town. This is a sad song, melancholy. There are certain artists who bring the melancholy, baby. Gordon Lightfoot is one, Radiohead another. This is a gorgeous melody, worthy of Donovan or Elton John, and the feel of the song is sad but somehow the result is uplifting. Helluva record this.
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Brantford Boy

theDjdj,

Hey man,

Thanks for the In Rainbows tip… I was a big Radiohead fan back in the day and just lost track of the newer music… I downloaded that album last night and am currently listening to it now, about half way through… its great… thanks again!

Cheers!

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Final last ever point about the Hall trade:

At the time I didn’t think the trade was fair value. I really started to change my tune as the season wore on and then after watching Larsson play 45 minutes against the Ducks in Game 5 after Sekera went down I did a complete capitulation. I like Hall, will cheer for him in Devils silks and can’t imagine how crappy things used to be during the Decade of Darkness.

In short I see both sides of the debate that frequently de-rails threads here. I get it, its hard and if you are a passionate fan I can see why one is still upset.

But (and there is always a but) I see a tendency that emerges from the “its bad” side that I don’t really much care for because it leads down a trail that ends with “I’m the smartest man in the room” and after suffering for a decade because Oilers management had the same opinion I’m surprised that so many people seem to be taking that route. I get best player, I get river pusher, I honestly do understand all of that. But I’m also willing to entertain the thought that sometimes you need to be incredibly drastic to shift a belief system in a locker room. Its unfortunate that Taylor Hall was sacrificed for that cause as well as for Larsson but the results look pretty decent at this point and if we see in a few weeks that Leon and Connor do indeed settle instead of going for the max dollar amounts my beliefs are only going to increase that we are on the verge of witnessing something truly special with this team.

I don’t envy Peter Chiarelli’s job, I can’t imagine the stress involved nevermind when its a northern outpost who came into the NHL with Gretzky, Messier, Lowe, Coffey, Anderson, Kurri, Fuhr and Sather leading the charge. The expectations are enormous every year, add in McDavid and a new very expensive downtown arena and jeebus we’re talking about a serious pressure cooker. But that is why he makes the big bucks and I sit here and peck away at my keyboard, trading my musings with intelligent individuals about a team and a topic that binds us but does not make us.

So that would be my thoughts. i understand why people will argue over that trade until the sun refuses to come up, such is the life of sports fans. I don’t like the “he’s a dummy” tone that sometimes comes with it though because deep down we all know for a fact there is more to winning than assembling a team of all-stars. There needs to be a glue that holds that all together and that glue doesn’t show up in analytics or stats per say. It shows up in wins, losses, Campbell trophies and eventually the Stanley. As we saw again this year, the Capitals has the all-stars but they didn’t have the glue that Pittsburgh does, I’ll take the latter over the former any day of the week. Both pro and con believers of the trade can at least agree on that much.

Johnny skid

AsiaOil:
CofA and PO – if LT has an issue with my comments he is fully capable of making them himself. He doesn’t need your “help” and I guess you missed the fact that I complemented him on his success. Your little rants are juvenile but unfortunately symptomatic of the group think going on around here. It’s a reason why a lot of old voices don’t drop by much any more or at all. I only read occasionally and post once every couple of months. We all know who is not here any more, and if you don’t care about that, then I guess you can take comfort in talking to yourself. But back to Hall. One year later is plenty of time to take down the black crepe and move on from trading a player who was good but will never have his jersey in the rafters. He really doesn’t rate that type of angst and anyone who was around for the disembowelment of the 80s team knows that. These few lines are far more of a reply than your comments really deserve but they did confirm why I don’t drop by much any more.

i always enjoy reading your comments and hope you comment more not less.

russ99

The Hall trade works if you value defense, and can put aside the trade optics for how the deal helps the team get better.

Despite being one of the few people OK with the deal that day, and being high on Larsson on his draft day, I have to admit my first reaction was “that’s all?”

So yeah, there was a shock realizing our best player for years didn’t being back a star but it’s obvious none of the other GMs were going to give us a star for Hall, they wanted the kids: Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse. As much as it hurt, its probably better that we lost Hall than seeing those players turn the corner somewhere else.

We should remember this for this offseason, player trades in the NHL aren’t about straight value for value as discussed here and places like HF boards, they’re about fit, how the new player fits in with the group and helps you get closer to team goals, and also how readily you can replace what you’re losing.

Chiarelli saw part one of that in Larsson who has skills he couldn’t have found on the FA market, and signed Lucic for part two.

That we have our two top pairing defensemen locked in at below market cap numbers helps too.

anonymous

Centre of attention,
The comment section for a fan that no longer lives in oil country is like a daily romp down memory lane. Countless hours of co workers arguing and debating. It’s disappointing seeing so many posters leave, even the most abrasive still raise good points.

I don’t think either argument on the Hall trade are wrong. At the time it sure looked like a loss but I also thought St Louis was crazy to trade Shanahan for Pronger at the time.

Walter Sobchak

I honestly don’t mind talking about the Hall and Larsson trade! I hated it, then I liked it, then I hated it, then I liked it……that’s where it stands right about now…

I will say… I really dislike the Hall was a “cancer” comments, like, how the hell does anybody know that???
If, so……Why would the team let McDavid live with Hall…..It’s really stupid!

Let’s talk expansion!!! Not sure about the rest of you, but I’m slowly growing a nice ulcer that I aid with warm smooth aged whisky, the speculations and suspense is awesome!!

Really, when have we had the opportunity to discuss the possibility of a player like Doughty becoming an Oiler?
Reminds me of the day when we had a silky smooth player like Visnovsky before the ultra dark times.

Enjoy reading all your comments even though I don’t post much, interesting to say the least!

AsiaOil

CofA and PO – if LT has an issue with my comments he is fully capable of making them himself. He doesn’t need your “help” and I guess you missed the fact that I complemented him on his success. Your little rants are juvenile but unfortunately symptomatic of the group think going on around here. It’s a reason why a lot of old voices don’t drop by much any more or at all. I only read occasionally and post once every couple of months. We all know who is not here any more, and if you don’t care about that, then I guess you can take comfort in talking to yourself. But back to Hall. One year later is plenty of time to take down the black crepe and move on from trading a player who was good but will never have his jersey in the rafters. He really doesn’t rate that type of angst and anyone who was around for the disembowelment of the 80s team knows that. These few lines are far more of a reply than your comments really deserve but they did confirm why I don’t drop by much any more.

Blackwolf

This hall/Larsson debate is truly getting tired. I believe that most folks would like to move passed this, but it keeps coming up (by our outstanding host as much as anyone).
Nothing happens in a vacuum and everything has context. Did I like hall? Yup. He was our best player until Connor showed up. Am I upset about the trade? Nope. For performance/dollar the day of the trade I believe that Larsson is equal to or greater than hall.
Scenario: Washington and L.A. make a trade tomorrow. Ovechkin for doughy straight up. I would presume based on our hall/Larsson debate that it would look something like this.
So called hall lovers: wow L.A. just raped Washington. 50 goal scorer, arguably best winger in the league for a really good but not elite defenceman (Doesn’t put up points like a karlson or burns afterall).
So called hall hater: wow Washington just raped L.A.. minute munching elite defenceman with tons of potential to show way more offense playing with Washington’s forwards. Ovie is on the decline, is a one trick pony, and is only a winger.
Piss poor example I know, but I think I’ve made my point. It’s not what something is worth, it’s what you’re willing to pay for it. I had no issues with hall being the price we paid. I believe that his trade value is grossly overrated by those who are upset by the trade. I believe that it was a fair trade and both Edmonton and new jersey got what they wanted from it. I do however comprehend why quite a few feel that it was an overpay , and they have the right to hold that opinion.
The challenge of this all is that all sides are right and all sides are wrong. This has turned into silly school yard name calling at best. You want undeniable proof from me that Larsson is better? I can’t give you that. You want undeniable proof that hall is better? Can’t give you that either. 2 different people/players, 2 different positions, played on 2 different teams , so no true head/head numbers available with accurate context.
We really need to move on. This is an unanswerable conversation. All that matters is that the oilers improved because of the trade or in spite of it.

vangolf

VOR,

Thanks for input and I agree with a lot of what you have said, especially that 1 year out isn’t enough to draw certain conclusions and there is lots of road left.

That said, I don’t agree with static evaluation principles because by that rationale every player for prospect or collection of prospects deal, regardless of league, would be a win in favour of team acquiring the certainty of the established player. Projection has to be factored in and valued, and previous accomplishments minimized. By way of hyberbolic example, it was acceptable (note – not unanimous) to be critical of the rangers in the Gomez to Montreal trade at the time the deal was struck, as Gomez decline was not certain and neither was McDonough’s ascendence. Based on the evaluation at the time, would you still be comfortable in saying gainey made the right move (or even an okay move) that just didn’t turn out? Less extreme is Shanahan for pronger…point is the value on trade day becomes less and less relevant with more data. In my opinion, this blog has a blind spot on the trade (applies to both sides) and the rinse repeat has become frustrating.

PunjabiOil

AsiaOil

I don’t get it. The constant melancholy over the Hall trade. It’s like you’re sad that the Oilers did so well last year LT as it goes contrary to your feeling and doesn’t allow you to call for Chia’s head. That would be ridiculous of course after this past year and a GM of the year nomination. But seriously, it’s not that big a deal. This team traded Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, Coffey and Anderson – and Hall maybe comes close to Anderson – he’s nowhere near the other four. Complimentary wingers are not worth all the angst. Great blog and you’ve developed into a solid media guy LT – but this Hall stuff just turns people off.

Not sure what your problem is. Lowetide backed up his opinion, which many of us agree on. Who are you to call it a “turn off”

Imagine if people called you out for your questionable stances (as per HF):

1. Kassian as a legitimate top 6
2. Trade Nuge for Brandon Sutter

In short, have some respect for LT. You can disagree, but there is a way going about it.

We’re all adults here.

VOR

vangolf,

I have to disagree with you on this one. I mean no disrespect in saying that.

From my point of view:

The reason hockey people have for decades judged trades by the “at the moment of the trade who got the best player standard” is because the future is unpredictable, in fact the future of hockey players and hockey teams are extremely unpredictable. All you have is the moment of the trade. Everything after, and I know this is conceptually hard to grasp doesn’t exist because we can never say how much of what followed is the player and how much is the environment (opportunity) and how much is luck.

Think of it this way, logically everything after the trade is fruit of the poison tree and can’t be used to judge the trade, and thus Lowetide is being highly logical, a little counter intuitive perhaps, but highly logical.

It is perhaps easiest if we imagine next season and make just two simple modelling assumptions:

1. New Jersey drafts Nolan Patrick who turns out to be as good as Auston Matthews. He spends the season on a line with Taylor Hall and Hall scores 27 goals and has 80 points. Cory Schneider rebounds and New Jersey makes the playoffs.

2. Adam Larsson suffers an injury and only plays 64 games. Edmonton regresses owing to the Sekera injury, Larsson’s missed time and a general return to league average missed games due to injury and doesn’t make the playoffs.

Neither of these modelling assumptions (as the situation currently stands) is preposterous. But these slight changes to the current environment would, based on arguments expressed here, be enough to make the trade a clear win for New Jersey.

The future isn’t ours to see. If we want to use career outcomes for the two players as the standard to judge a trade we probably need to wait at least five years and maybe until they both are retired to fairly assess this trade. But we can say for sure that we will never know what would have happened in the alternative universe in which Taylor Hall remained in Edmonton.

So in summary, we have Lowetide saying at the time of the trade the Oilers lost the trade, which based on the best player at that moment rule is unequivocally true. He goes on to add he will still believe that ten years from now. His first statement reflects a very well established approach to evaluating hockey trades. The second statement clearly reflects a great respect for that traditional approach. Nothing illogical at all.

He is attacked by people who say, based on one year of outcomes (which we can’t be sure have anything to do with either player) that Edmonton clearly won the trade and he should get over it. It is absurdly early and hopelessly illogical to call the trade after just one year. Additionally none of the posters I have read to date have offered up context, robust argument, or statistical evidence to support their arguments. How is that being logical and honouring the tradition of this blog?

Chachi

Centre of attention:
anonymous,

I was harsh, perhaps too much so.

Debate is perfectly fine if that’s what you’re doing. I didn’t see Asia’s comment as much of a rebuttal in an actual debate so much as a drive by “I’m upset you don’t agree” kind of shtick.

Asia wants conformance too, it seems. Just conformance on his side of the fence. But I’m not buying what he’s selling, and I made that very clear in my opinion.

To be honest I could care less if he simply loves the Hall trade and wants to voice his opinion on that. he can do that all day.

What I took issue with was with the way he presented his comment. It was just noise in the air. And noise is annoying and distracts from the real debate.

I’ve heard some decent arguments from the pro-Hall trade side. None of them have come in the form that Asia presented.

/end rant

By the way I really didn’t want to derail the thread by scolding someone, i should have just kept my mouth shut.

Personally, I would love to read your opinions on Brad Marchand again.

Professor Q

OF17:
Maybe trading Larsson + for Doughty is how we put the Hall issue to rest. There’s something for everyone in that progression.

Don’t suggest that. Terrible idea.

slopitch

Haha great post LT. Handled the chairelli review with insight, opinion and humour. Well done.

I’d be all over acquiring Doughty. Move JP, Ebs, whatever. It’s easier to get wingers. Especially ones to play with 97/29

OF17

Maybe trading Larsson + for Doughty is how we put the Hall issue to rest. There’s something for everyone in that progression.

vangolf

Here’s the thing that gets me in LT’s hall analysis – it stubbornly hangs on to the sense of value on trade day and not on subsequent events and performance. It’s like thinking amazon stock was overpriced at $700 a year ago and ignoring it is now at $1k…speaking of the $700 price is now irrelevant. The whole bit about still hating the trade 10 years from now is a disservice to reason and speaks to emotional reaction as opposed to rational evaluation as things progress. The ironic thing is LT brings up the trade often, but never to advance the conversation about how things have evolved since. I find this antithetical to much of what this blog stands for. We have to wait 5 years for drafted players, 200 games for defenceman, etc. but hall trade is set in stone??

GMB3

AsiaOil:
I don’t get it. The constant melancholy over the Hall trade. It’s like you’re sad that the Oilers did so well last year LT as it goes contrary to your feeling and doesn’t allow you to call for Chia’s head. That would be ridiculous of course after this past year and a GM of the year nomination. But seriously, it’s not that big a deal. This team traded Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, Coffey and Anderson – and Hall maybe comes close to Anderson – he’s nowhere near the other four. Complimentary wingers are not worth all the angst. Great blog and you’ve developed into a solid media guy LT – but this Hall stuff just turns people off.

I’d value Doug Weight over Hall as well

Centre of attention

anonymous,

I was harsh, perhaps too much so.

Debate is perfectly fine if that’s what you’re doing. I didn’t see Asia’s comment as much of a rebuttal in an actual debate so much as a drive by “I’m upset you don’t agree” kind of shtick.

Asia wants conformance too, it seems. Just conformance on his side of the fence. But I’m not buying what he’s selling, and I made that very clear in my opinion.

To be honest I could care less if he simply loves the Hall trade and wants to voice his opinion on that. he can do that all day.

What I took issue with was with the way he presented his comment. It was just noise in the air. And noise is annoying and distracts from the real debate.

I’ve heard some decent arguments from the pro-Hall trade side. None of them have come in the form that Asia presented.

/end rant

By the way I really didn’t want to derail the thread by scolding someone, i should have just kept my mouth shut.

dustrock

I can’t see a straight trade of Doughty to a divisional opponent. I guess including LV makes it possible.

But man this sounds like beautiful fantasy to me. Maybe we can trade for Karlsson too while we’re at it.

gadot10

John Chambers: I suppose Darnell Nurse is the one player the Leafs couldn’t match in an offer from the Oil.

Nurse to LA, Brown and Puljujarvi to LVG, Doughty to Edm. Some draft picks exchange hands. Balance photo ensues.

If Nurse gets traded away, after living with McDavid, just like Hall got traded away after living with McDavid, no Oiler player is going to want to be roomies with Connor.

jtblack

LT: I love your passion. If there are no trades, just blog about Hall! Hopefully there are some trades coming ….

Hall / Larsson has been beat to death. But I enjoy seeing the different perspectives. I think it also shows the connection we as fans, make with the players. I had little connection to Hall. But I loved Smytty. Every fan is different. You and many others, obviously loved Taylor …

The one part I did like about your blog today is you did state that if PC can deliver one Stanley, you can give him credit (not forgive him). I am OK with that. The whole, they could have won more with Hall is a never ending loop argument. Win 1, they should’ve won 2. etc, etc … Winning 1 will be more than enough of a task. 4 Teams have won in the last 9 years. #SupremelyDifficult

Give me more 100 point seasons. Give me more playoff runs. If that means the GM thinks he has to deal Ebs, RNH or anyone else who may be dear to Oilers fans, I am in. I like what all those guys have done for Edmonton in the dark years, and still like them now. BUT above all I am for the crest on the front. I want the Edmonton Oilers to be competitive for a decade. If they win a Cup, I for one, will be toasting PC. Now fast forward 8 years, and if there is no Stanley; I will consider PC’s work a failure. That simple.

This “team” made huge strides last year. I think more balance is to be provided from the GM shuffling parts in the next 60 days. I can’t wait to see what those moves look like.

Great comments from everyone. Gonna be a fun ride.

anonymous

Centre of attention:
AsiaOil,

Wow. So because Hall is nowhere near the boys on the bus his trade is irrelevant and the fact this team still lacks a solid, proven second line is also irrelevant? (Drai might end up on RW yet so no he’s not the answer, especially if Eberle gets traded)

You know what really turns people off? You coming into the thread and telling LT how you think he really feels, when in fact he describes his actual thoughts on the trade perfectly in the blog. Just friggen read the thing, is that too much to ask?

Nowhere does he claim to be sad the Oilers have had success. he even goes as far as saying a single cup would make him happy.

You sir, are whats turning people off. And I really wish you would pack your act up and leave. Find some other anti-Hall groupthink and stuff words in peoples mouths there. You clearly don’t enjoy the content or converstation here and don’t get along with the blogs author, so why are you here? Just to start something?

Seriously. I’m sick of seeing this same style of post.

Unless you’re adding something new to the conversation, just save it. Going “It turns me off because you disagree with me” has no merit here. You will persuade no one with this drivel.

Go elsewhere.

Harsh. Conversations between conformists are boring.

leadfarmer

Kepler62:
Hmmm, better question that was not answered… what does Larsson have to do to justify that he WAS full value for Taylor Hall?

Probably cure cancer, it’s funny how a stats heavy blog is still singing Demers praise. The guy has become a reclamation project in one year which is pretty crazy for a top 4 d

John Chambers

Centre of attention:
Tracy Lane‏ @TreenasOil9m9 minutes ago
MoreLots of interest in Nurse good chance he won’t start the season with Oilers ……APG

Not sure this Tracy Lane account has ever gotten ahead of a rumor or not but I’m sure just mentioning Nurse’s name will go over well with Oilers fans…Lol.

I suppose Darnell Nurse is the one player the Leafs couldn’t match in an offer from the Oil.

Nurse to LA, Brown and Puljujarvi to LVG, Doughty to Edm. Some draft picks exchange hands. Balance photo ensues.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Centre of attention,

– I think you need to walk that back… I too have asked LT about the choice of Radiohead: so much sadness in their talented music, as the choice for this year’s theme.

– I mean if LT wants to feel melancholy for what @could have been@, I get that conflict that he seems to b communicating: “Team good” and “Hall trade sad”

– It’s not how I feel, but I respect LT’s thoughts on the matter.

– I’d like LT to explore the link between the talented yet generally sad Radiohead and the talented team we are assembling. It’s a neat juxtaposition. I liked Asia’s query

oilswell

I’ve held my tongue as best I can on the Hall-Larson trade, I have an enduring question that I find relevant:

Can you evaluate the equity of a deal just on balance of talent or player value independent of organization, or is it necessary (better?) to evaluate the deal in the context of the organization?

A bottle of potable water at Safeway is under $3.00. To someone dying of dehydration in the desert, there’s no monetary cost too high.

IMO this is the first question to answer with the Hall-Larson trade. And the inability (sometimes stubbornly cultivated) to truly appreciate the other position is a key driver of useless argument.

Whatever side you find yourself on, I only ask you to please try to appreciate the other, because while the Oilers were NOT dying of starvation, IMO they were at the same time so thirsty it was truly unhealthy. It matters NOT why, only that they were. And they overpaid to drink.

Centre of attention

gadot10,

Pretty sure Nylander is off-limits, and as I mentioned above in another post I don’t think Toronto is as good a fit as some like to believe.

digger50

Wild Bill Hunter:
It is hard to fathom how some people continue to whine about the Hall trade.Do you think for even a millisecond that a player’s value begins and ends on the ice?Hall was a cancer off the ice (and sometimes on the ice too).Not only did we get a real 1st pairing rh defenceman, but we sent Hall as far away from McDavid as possible.Double win and anybody who is still whining about it seriously needs to shut up already…it is tough to be proven 100% wrong…but let it go already and people will eventually forget all the idiotic things you said about it.

gadot10

Diablo:
Centre of attention,

You have to think that it really burns Doughty not to be recognized for the Norris each and every year – just a phenomenal D-man. He’s had to play a very conservative style for LA since pretty much his rookie year in order to play the kind of minutes that he does.

While you and I agree that D-man points are over-rated, the people who vote for the Norris can’t see past the counting numbers. So if a D-man wants to be considered, he has to put up points. Having Klefbom-Larsson to take on the toughs while he and Sekera feast on offence has to be mighty appealing.

And then there’s Connor and Leon.

I would think that Edmonton is one of the few teams he’d be willing to waive his NMC for – more cups, more points, and more Norris trophies in his future if he pushes for a trade to the Oil.

Which is why it is vital that Chia doesn’t cave into fans expectations to “do something” such as signing a Hanzal to a long-term deal. Just get Connor and Leon signed to 8 years deals and try and clear some of the dead weight off the cap.

The real question centres around the timing of a deal like this – right now the cost would be astronomical. LA would want Nurse, Jesse and our 1st this year and next – that’s too rich.

This is something that Chia will have to slow play.

Except the Leafs will move on Doughty quickly if he is available. Suppose the Leafs offered Nylander to Vegas to take Dustin Brown in the expansion draft as part of a Doughty deal to Toronto.

Centre of attention

AsiaOil,

Wow. So because Hall is nowhere near the boys on the bus his trade is irrelevant and the fact this team still lacks a solid, proven second line is also irrelevant? (Drai might end up on RW yet so no he’s not the answer, especially if Eberle gets traded)

You know what really turns people off? You coming into the thread and telling LT how you think he really feels, when in fact he describes his actual thoughts on the trade perfectly in the blog. Just friggen read the thing, is that too much to ask?

Nowhere does he claim to be sad the Oilers have had success. he even goes as far as saying a single cup would make him happy.

You sir, are whats turning people off. And I really wish you would pack your act up and leave. Find some other anti-Hall groupthink and stuff words in peoples mouths there. You clearly don’t enjoy the content or converstation here and don’t get along with the blogs author, so why are you here? Just to start something?

Seriously. I’m sick of seeing this same style of post.

Unless you’re adding something new to the conversation, just save it. Going “It turns me off because you disagree with me” has no merit here. You will persuade no one with this drivel.

Go elsewhere.

Diablo

AsiaOil:
I don’t get it. The constant melancholy over the Hall trade.

Not everybody – I got over the trade 1 day later.
As a former goalie, I absolutely appreciate the value of Adam Larsson.

Diablo

Centre of attention,

You have to think that it really burns Doughty not to be recognized for the Norris each and every year – just a phenomenal D-man. He’s had to play a very conservative style for LA since pretty much his rookie year in order to play the kind of minutes that he does.

While you and I agree that D-man points are over-rated, the people who vote for the Norris can’t see past the counting numbers. So if a D-man wants to be considered, he has to put up points. Having Klefbom-Larsson to take on the toughs while he and Sekera feast on offence has to be mighty appealing.

And then there’s Connor and Leon.

I would think that Edmonton is one of the few teams he’d be willing to waive his NMC for – more cups, more points, and more Norris trophies in his future if he pushes for a trade to the Oil.

Which is why it is vital that Chia doesn’t cave into fans expectations to “do something” such as signing a Hanzal to a long-term deal. Just get Connor and Leon signed to 8 years deals and try and clear some of the dead weight off the cap.

The real question centres around the timing of a deal like this – right now the cost would be astronomical. LA would want Nurse, Jesse and our 1st this year and next – that’s too rich.

This is something that Chia will have to slow play.

TheFinn60

Some interesting numbers presented at TruePerformsnce web site. I am sure one can have many different opinions on hockey analytic methods but to me it make sense to use video in order to get a picture of each players contributions.

I am.not a expert on this but slowly start to learn there are options on how to rate players.

Russell and Sekera numbers are interesting

http://truperformancehockey.com/news/OILERS%20TURNAROUND

B.C.B

Centre of attention:
Lowetide,

My 2 cents on the Doughty thing.

Is not the problem that Doughty would cost Nurse/Benning, Puljujarvi, and Edm 1st round pick at minumim. I can’t see Doughty go for less than that.

Centre of attention

Tracy Lane‏ @TreenasOil 9m9 minutes ago
More
Lots of interest in Nurse good chance he won’t start the season with Oilers ……APG

Not sure this Tracy Lane account has ever gotten ahead of a rumor or not but I’m sure just mentioning Nurse’s name will go over well with Oilers fans…Lol.

AsiaOil

I don’t get it. The constant melancholy over the Hall trade. It’s like you’re sad that the Oilers did so well last year LT as it goes contrary to your feeling and doesn’t allow you to call for Chia’s head. That would be ridiculous of course after this past year and a GM of the year nomination. But seriously, it’s not that big a deal. This team traded Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, Coffey and Anderson – and Hall maybe comes close to Anderson – he’s nowhere near the other four. Complimentary wingers are not worth all the angst. Great blog and you’ve developed into a solid media guy LT – but this Hall stuff just turns people off.

flyfish1168

I believe in this equation
Larsson + Lucic 2> Hall

With Hall and Larsson and no Lucic we would not have enough team toughness or experience. Kassain and Maroon is not enough team toughness up front.

Larsson and Nurse is great but we need one more. Preferably RHD that has some offence and plenty of toughness. Carley Manson would be a nice add here.

dustrock

I thought the Chia Radiohead track might be “Big Ideas (Don’t Get Any)” 🙂

Centre of attention

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Centre of attention,

– Corsi needs a lot of context when used to assess players…

Very astute observation Kinger, and most smart analytical people agree. The only people who quote raw, unweighted corsi to frame things seems to be anti-analytic people who are trying to take shots at analysts.

Corsi is but a single, (still use full) piece of the puzzle. Danger-weighted shots are a much, much better way to assess things and they really are the future. You can see this happening with WoodGuy & Gmoney’s new stuff. Assessing a danger value to the shot is very important, as well as getting context as to where in the batting order a certain player is generating those positive or negative differentials.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Centre of attention,

– I’ve said for years that corsi isn’t a stat that has much currency amongst the NHL stat community.

– Taylor Hall in the last 2 years: his CF60 is 53rd (Milan’s is elite @ 63%,7th in league)

– Larsson, his CF60 is the 3rd worse amongst D (yet he’s elite for actually preventing goals)

– Corsi needs a lot of context when used to assess players…

Centre of attention

Diablo: Doughty would also appreciate Klefbom-Larsson taking on the toughs, so that he can focus on generating the kind of offence that wins Norris trophies.

Agree, I always thought Drew has had more offense in his game but Sutter has kept the leash so tight there for so long its been hard to see at times.

If he leaves Sutter just to play for Babs, is that really much of a difference in usage? Babs does play a faster style but one thinks that he would lean on Doughty defensively like he does on team Canada. With Zaitsev / Rielly / Gardiner running around (all are anywhere from bad to mediocre defensively) Doughty would for sure be saddled with the heavy defensive workload again.

Maybe playing with a solid two-way partner in a system like Todd’s where the D-men are more involved in the transition and offense he could thrive.

There’s something to be said for D-men points being overrated as well, again Dellow has some fantastic stuff on this and you really should read his stuff. I hate referencing it all the time but damn he’s so smart its hard not too lol.

Pretty much, the amount a team scores while a specific D-man is on the ice doesn’t really relate at all to his individual point totals.

An example is Sami Vatanen, who had a down year points wise but in all reality the team as a whole was more effective at generating goals while he was on the ice, in fact it was more so than almost any other point in Sami’s career. Very interesting stuff and I recommend everyone here get a subscription to The Athletic. Some real eye opening stuff there, very little of it to do with boring old Corsi.

Centre of attention

Lowetide,

Remember we have former king Milan Lucic playing for us too.

I’m sure Edmonton would be in the mix, the only real issue I could foresee is maybe LA thinks its better to move him out of division. Though, if they are making that move they are admitting to themselves that being competitive isn’t the main objective and perhaps helping a divisional rival means that much less.

Plus, you know, they still owe us future considerations for the Gretzky sale, right? Lol. Wheres that receipt!

Professor Q

Diablo: Doughty would also appreciate Klefbom-Larsson taking on the toughs, so that he can focus on generating the kind of offence that wins Norris trophies.

I wouldn’t be opposed to that.

Diablo

Centre of attention:
Lowetide,

The way I heard it, people made it sound like there was pressure from the Doughty side as well as the desire for change in LA front office.

Since LA’s new management are a bunch of former players, they will be more sympathetic to a player like Doughty’s situation. This is the way Bob framed it the other day as well.

The only issue is if it does go down like this, Doughty will have his pick of the litter. Lets just hope there was no hard feelings when Connor completely obliterated him during LA’s elimination game near the end of the regular season. Man, 97 walked him like a dog. Maybe Doughty thinks to himself, “if you can’t beat em’, join em’ ” No offense to Toronto, but Sekera and Klefbom are much better partners for Doughty than Rielly and Gardiner. Rielly is highly questionable defensively / Klefbom is miles better and Gardiner is actually pretty underrated but Sekera has a lot more veteran savy / less risk in his game. Doughty has alreadyplayed with Sekera for a time as well, so there is familiarity there.

One might say “Well there is familiarity between Babcock and Doughty because of team Canada so the Leafs make sense as a trade partner” well that’s true but can you guarantee that its good familiarity? Babs has been known to rub guys the wrong way and Doughty would be playing for Canada regardless of who the coach is so I doubt that connection means much either way.

My 2 cents on the Doughty thing.

Doughty would also appreciate Klefbom-Larsson taking on the toughs, so that he can focus on generating the kind of offence that wins Norris trophies.

Centre of attention

Lowetide,

The way I heard it, people made it sound like there was pressure from the Doughty side as well as the desire for change in LA front office.

Since LA’s new management are a bunch of former players, they will be more sympathetic to a player like Doughty’s situation. This is the way Bob framed it the other day as well.

The only issue is if it does go down like this, Doughty will have his pick of the litter. Lets just hope there was no hard feelings when Connor completely obliterated him during LA’s elimination game near the end of the regular season. Man, 97 walked him like a dog. Maybe Doughty thinks to himself, “if you can’t beat em’, join em’ ” No offense to Toronto, but Sekera and Klefbom are much better partners for Doughty than Rielly and Gardiner. Rielly is highly questionable defensively / Klefbom is miles better and Gardiner is actually pretty underrated but Sekera has a lot more veteran savy / less risk in his game. Doughty has already played with Sekera for a time as well, so there is familiarity there.

One might say “Well there is familiarity between Babcock and Doughty because of team Canada so the Leafs make sense as a trade partner” well that’s true but can you guarantee that its good familiarity? Babs has been known to rub guys the wrong way and Doughty would be playing for Canada regardless of who the coach is so I doubt that connection means much either way.

My 2 cents on the Doughty thing.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– For instance, in the last 2 years: Larson is an elite defender: his GA60 is 11th in the league @ 1.82

– Hall, his GF60, in the last 2 years: was 56th in pure offense: his GF60 was 2.43

– I’d say for sure you want more D that are elite at GA than wingers with good GF. Taylor Hall was 42nd in GF last 2 years.

– I bet with better stats it will be a no-brainer that you want D who defend against scoring goals moreso than wingers that score goals. (which Larson is elite at, Hall only very good)

– I think Larson is a better RHD than conventional wisdom says, and Hall’s goal production is not as important as conventional wisdom. And Hall is no longer elite at the goal scoring, while Larson should cntinue to become an even better defender.

Scungilli Slushy

Scungilli Slushy: Edmonton – Doughty
LA – Eberle Benning
LV – Brown, Edm 1st, Reinhart

I still think Rob Blake will value a defenceman like he was as a keeper, and will look elsewhere to improve.

Brown’s contract to a rebuilding team is so toxic, moving it has a lot of value to them. Maybe LV needs a pick from LA to make it worthwhile. LV can buy him out at some point, save money and use it to hit the cap floor without spending real dollars.