THE EXPANSION LIST

by Lowetide

Earlier today, the NHL’s trade freeze arrived and now the entire league waits for the expansion draft and the first blush Vegas Golden Knights. There was a lot of speculation on Friday night surrounding Jordan Eberle but dawn Saturday arrived and the cooling had begun. I remain uncertain the open market value for No. 14 is enough to get a second pairing RHD. In today’s NHL, even a righty center like Derek Stepan might not get you that asset. We wait for the freeze to be over and look forward to the expansion draft.

ASSUMED PROTECTED LIST

  • Goal: Cam Talbot
  • Defense: Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom
  • Forwards: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian, Mark Letestu

This is the universally accepted list, I would put Jujhar Khaira on it but we should expect this to be the published list tomorrow. Mark Spector mentioned today that he could see Jordan Eberle not making this list, but that seems a distant bell.

INELIGIBLE LIST

  • Not Available: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Nick Ellis.

Edmonton got very lucky with the timing of the expansion draft, their list and Toronto’s will easily be the most valuable in the NHL. Two years from now? Edmonton would be reeling at the thought of an expansion draft.

NOTABLE ELIGIBLES

  • G Laurent Brossoit, D Mark Fayne, D Kris Russell (ufa), D Griffin Reinhart (rfa), D Jordan Oesterle (ufa), D Dillon Simpson (rfa), D David Musil (rfa), C Jujhar Khaira, C David Desharnais (ufa), L Benoit Pouliot, R Tyler Pitlick (ufa), R Iiro Pakarinen.

My bet is Griffin Reinhart, but the Golden Knights may end up with a plethora of LHD and could choose Benoit Pouliot, Laurent Brossoit or Jujhar Khaira instead.

Lots of conversations about trade options and tomorrow morning when we see the final lists there may be an opportunity to make a trade that includes LV taking on a big contract. That aside, Edmonton is in pretty good position heading into this expansion draft. The trade prices for sellers today were severe and that’s putting it lightly, best to keep your powder dry and maybe tomorrow brings a change in the weather.

Note: The protected lists are leaking (WSH, LAK) and if the Oilers list comes out tonight I’ll update this post.

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Ducey

I have not gone thru all the scenarios but isn’t it likely that Vegas winds up with 23 players better than Reinhart and Khaira?

Seems likely both would be late cuts come training camp from Vegas?

jtblack

This whole thing is a chess match for Vegas. Hard to predict 3 moves ahead. They may take the players most think; but they may also opt to just take the players with the most perceived value and flip a lot of them out.

Should become more interesting once Wednesday is here. From Wed to Friday, that is when the action comes.

N64

The question might not be what deals will Chia make with Vegas? It might actually be what deals did Chia make today with Vegas?

Teams with valuable D they could not protect did not move them on the open market. The alternative to those open deals today was to do a trade call with Vegas.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/gms-meet-ensure-vegas-expansion-passes-smell-test/

“They would be complete with a trade call and the same kind of documentation that accompanies every exchange of players between teams. In the past, some of those transactions with expansion franchises were agreed to on the side.”

stush18

Ducey:
I have not gone thru all the scenarios but isn’t it likely that Vegas winds up with 23 players better than Reinhart and Khaira?

Seems likely both would be late cuts come training camp from Vegas?

I think if they were grabbing players honestly, perhaps.

But they are taking on bad contracts right now for picks, so I think either would have the ability to make that team imo

Marc

The problem with Reinhart from LV’s perspective is that he’s not waiver exempt anymore. There’s a good chance that they’ll pick 7 veteran D who are better than he is (given that most teams will only be protecting 3 D), so they’ll risk losing him for nothing if he doesn’t make the team out of training camp. His trade value is limited for the same reason.

Khaira isn’t exempt either, but it’s far more likely that he’ll be one of the 14 best LV forwards out of camp than it would be that Reinhart is one of their best 7 D.

If Edmonton isn’t in LT’s list of teams that have no one worth drafting, they probably should be…

JD_Wry

Purported to be a release from the Vags:

comment image

Paraphrasing, it says that The Summer of George is willing to listen to any request from other teams to not take roster players. Crazy.

JD_Wry

Adam Vingan‏Verified account @AdamVingan 54m54 minutes ago

Calle Jarnkrok was among the Predators players protected by the team on its list submitted today.

Stick that in your krok and smoke it.

Victoria Oil

Of the reasonablely likely picks that Vegas could make from the Oilers, I’m hoping for:
1. Poo (with or without an inducement)
2. Khaira
3. Reinhart

I wouldn’t be too upset if they took Brossoit, but I don’t think that’s a reasonable possibility if Fleury, Raanta, Grubauer, Neuvirth are available.

JD_Wry

Lowetide: normal Saturday night.

I thought deleting posts was a normal Saturday night?

Victoria Oil

Westchester Oil:
Of the reasonablely likely picks that Vegas could make from the Oilers, I’m hoping for:
1. Poo (with or without an inducement)
2. Khaira
3. Reinhart

I wouldn’t be too upset if they took Brossoit, but I don’t think that’s a reasonable possibility if Fleury, Raanta, Grubauer, Neuvirth are available.

I should also add that I’d be happy to see Vegas sign Russell (who’s probably the BPA from the Oilers available list) to save us from ourselves giving him 4 x $4mln.

Scungilli Slushy

Scungilli Slushy,

Piseed is a word, that I invented, not my phone.

Scungilli Slushy

Westchester Oil: I should also add that I’d be happy to see Vegas sign Russell (who’s probably the BPA from the Oilers available list) to save us from ourselves giving him 4 x $4mln.

Perhaps they shoot them a McPhee as a sweetener.

JD_Wry

Scungilli Slushy,

Always blame your phone. It’s what Woodguy would want.

Scungilli Slushy

JDI:
Scungilli Slushy,

Always blame your phone. It’s what Woodguy would want.

I’m the antiWoodguy. Dumb, broke, and a lover of Gritensity. And plastic.

JD_Wry

Scungilli Slushy,

So you go against the grain?

Scungilli Slushy

JDI:
Scungilli Slushy,

So you go against the grain?

Ba doom doom tshhh

N64

Westchester Oil: 1. Poo (with or without an inducement

Available at Rexall over the counter. 😉

Ryan

Scungilli Slushy: Perhaps they shoot them a McPhee as a sweetener.

You take Pouliot and we’ll trade you Fayne for Petrovic… then we’ll give McPhee 10 games on Connor’s wing. Okay, 15. Okay stop. 20 is our final offer. Next season.

misfit

Reinhart may not be one of the 7 best defensemen the GDs select, but he could very likely be one of the 7 best they start the season with. There are a lot more quality D expected to be available than forwards, and I fully expect them to use some of them as trade chips.

If ai were Vegas, I’d take the minimum number of forwards and goalies allowable and make the rest of my selections defensemen.

N64

Lowetide: ArboriteGuy?

Al Arborite?

JD_Wry

N64: Al Arborite?

Looks great on my kitchen Islander.

N64

misfit:
Reinhart may not be one of the 7 best defensemen the GDs select, but he could very likely be one of the 7 best they start the season with.There are a lot more quality D expected to be available than forwards, and I fully expect them to use some of them as trade chips.

If ai were Vegas, I’d take the minimum number of forwards and goalies allowable and make the rest of my selections defensemen.

Or they can take firsts straight up to avoid certain D

gadot10

JDI:
Adam Vingan‏Verified account @AdamVingan 54m54 minutes ago


Calle Jarnkrok was among the Predators players protected by the team on its list submitted today.

Stick that in your krok and smoke it.

I never understood why people expected him to be left unprotected. Nashville can leave the older higher paid forwards and/or with contracts that expire soon unprotected without much worry.

If Maroon were earning $5 million, like Neal, he could be safely left unprotected also.

JD_Wry

“I think what we’ve done is make Edmonton more of an attractive landing spot for players to come to, especially with the building and the team and Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl,” said Lucic.

Yeah, that sounds like a situation that McDavid wants to leave for a ‘bigger market’. /s

JD_Wry

The Sharks expansion draft:

https://www.nhl.com/sharks/news/expansion-like-its-1991/c-289947420

The most amazing thing about this article, is how old it makes me feel.

Scungilli Slushy

Lowetide: ArboriteGuy?

N64: Al Arborite?

Ok now I have to change my handle! Maybe tomorrow if something nice happens.

Scungilli Slushy

JDI: Looks great on my kitchen Islander.

Beauty!

Jaxon

Okay, I know this is probably blasphemous, but would anyone consider trading Maroon for Evander Kane a good deal for Edmonton. Hear me out.

Evander Kane LW – 6’2″, 211 lbs – turns 26 years old this summer, 28 goals, 15 assists in 70 games last season. 12.13 ES shots/60. 1 year left at a $5.25M cap hit.

Patrick Maroon LW – 6’3″, 230lbs – 29 years old, 27 goals, 15 assists in 81 games last season. 7.37 ES shots/60. 1 year left at a $1.5M cap hit.

Both will get paid big time on their next contract. I could see Maroon opting for free agency to sign with St Louis to be close with family. His 27 goals will get him paid well on the open market. While Kane had a great season there are still always questions about him and that may affect his value on the open market so he may not command the $6M or more he hopes too.

Maroon may have peaked and was a benefactor of everything coming together at the right time to have a career year. We may not see this level again from him. If he doesn’t play with McDavid his value on the market will only go down. And if he wants to test the market, the Oilers may lose him for nothing. He can be re-signed July 1st, but if he holds off I think you have to consider getting value for him now.

While Maroon has performed well alongside McDavid, the Oilers haven’t tried anyone who has the potential to keep up and score in bunches on his line. Kane has a lot of speed, he’s physical, he shoots a lot and he is young enough to both improve his hockey skills and mature as a professional athlete.

Kane was #1 winger in even strength shots/60 last season with 12.13. Maroon was 52nd with 7.37 shots/60. That is a huge difference. Brendan Gallagher was #2 with 12.05. I would love to see them play with McDavid. They’re both fast, physical and shoot a lot. The savings in Gallagher’s contract would make up for the possible expense of Kane’s.

The Oilers need a shooter to really take advantage of the gift of McDavid, and Kane may be the very best available.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Great post LT!

– Honestly: would you rather Davidson or Griff? There are 5+ Griffs. I’ll eat my hat if they pick Griff

– Also, what a lack of dept we have, save the kids which of course is who we are: McD, Drai, Nurse, Benning etc, they are what are going to win us cups. I don’t think anyone has pointed out: Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian, Mark Letestu, they were free/others’ team’s give away.

– So Kudos for finding them, yet they are who we are protecting: we were so bad 18 months ago.

– Man we sucked, thinking RNH and Ebs were going to take us to the promise land, yet they were mediocre batting further down the betting order this year: think about how far we were away..

JD_Wry

Jaxon,

The only thing you haven’t stated, is their avg games played per season.

JD_Wry

TSN Hockey‏Verified account @TSNHockey 3m3 minutes ago

TRADE VERDICT: @CraigJButton on why getting Mike Smith is a big win for the Flames http://fw.to/SLDFQUa #TSNHockey

Ha… hahahahahahahahaha!

Kinger_Oil.redux

Jaxon,

– I agree: Maroon done if he was traded to say Arizona rather than McD’s winger: he was done

Kinger_Oil.redux

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Jaxon,

– I agree: Maroon done if he was traded to say Arizona rather than McD’s winger: he was done

-So many guys score with McD: I’m not hating on Maroon: he took advantage of the situation and achieved: props: but so many wingers could and would do the same: quick who’s Crosby LW?

– Answer: whoever is available. I hope they find McD’s Kurri: if not in this cap era, it’s anyone who steps up (unless pool-party, please!)

Jaxon

JDI:
Jaxon,

The only thing you haven’t stated, is their avg games played per season.

True.

But I wouldn’t be overly concerned. Maroon has averaged 71.5 games per season over the last 4 seasons. Kane has averaged 58.75 over the same period. Looking back at Kane’s history, he played through a bad shoulder for most of 2014-15 and had surgery in February which ended his season. Last season he only missed 12 games after he was dumped in a very similar play to the play that put McDavid out for most of his rookie year. He had 3 cracked ribs and came back after missing only 12 games. That’s impressive and you can’t call a guy fragile if you see how fast he hit the boards. I think he’s had a few games off for personal healthy scratch reasons, which isn’t great but hopefully he has matured since being traded to Buffalo.

Ouch:
https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/kane-out-with-cracked-ribs/c-282665726

Centre of attention

JDI,

I was laughing about Smith with you until I checked his record against the Oilers.

Maybe he summons some of that Oiler killer magic in the playoffs this coming season? Wouldn’t that be such an Oilers thing to happen. A goalie known for owning the Oilers souls (we did light him up finally last season, but that was only one out of almost half a decade of dominance) suddenly traded to our provincial rival? You can’t make this shit up.

I bet he’s rather mediocre in the reg season but all it takes is that one hot run in the playoffs to be a serious threat for the conference. (example:Anderson this year) and shutting down the McDavid Oilers in a 1st or 2nd round match up would probably give him them the momentum to make a run.

Pretty much, don’t sleep on Mike Smith.

Jaxon

Kinger_Oil.redux: -So many guys score with McD: I’m not hating on Maroon: he took advantage of the situation and achieved: props: but so many wingers could and would do the same: quick who’s Crosby LW?

– Answer: whoever is available.I hope they find McD’s Kurri: if not in this cap era, it’s anyone who steps up (unless pool-party, please!)

Don’t get me wrong, I love Maroon, but we could see him bolt next July, possibly for his hometown St Louis where his son lives. It would be hard to blame him for doing that. And I’m sure they’d pay him quite well. Crosby may not have an established sniper on his wing, but they did win 2 cups after they got Kessel, who is also fast, had ‘personality’ issues in the media, and provided Pittsburgh with firepower throughout the lineup. Actually, the Kane situation seems quite similar and the Penguins took advantage of it.

EDIT: from Maple Leaf Hot Stove on the day of the Kesssel trade:
Kessel “is only 28, but he was a lightning rod of negativity, feuding with media constantly and getting blamed for the team’s struggles.”

Kessel also led the NHL in shots in last year’s playoffs and almost won the Conn Smythe playing with Bonino and Hagelin and leading the playoffs in scoring. Maybe that’s what Kane’s potential could be on the Oilers.

admiralmark

Jaxon,

There’s no question Kane is the better player. The only issue is Kane’s head space. I love Maroon and his character so you would be rolling the dice. But I would because Kanes upside cant be ignored.

JD_Wry

Centre of attention: I was laughing about Smith with you until I checked his record against the Oilers.

But that started to turn midway through last season, and I think it will continue to turn.

I think we’ll see more of the Tampa/Dallas Smith than the Arizona Smith when he’s in Cowtown. And if that doesn’t summon Cameroon, I don’t know what will.

Centre of attention

JDI: But that started to turn midway through last season, and I think it will continue to turn…

…360 degree’s around and bite us in the ass.

🙂

JD_Wry

Jaxon,

Still, we’re talking about an average of almost 14 games per season less than Maroon. He was injured more than Hall over that span, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. At least Hall played all 82 before his trade.

Sure Kane could play 164 in the next two seasons and prove me wrong, but I’m not betting the farm on it. And then we have the history of attitude issues.

Jaxon

My new crazy trade roster

https://capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/edit/360131

Roster Players:
IN: Gallagher, Hamonic, Jenner, E Kane
OUT: Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Pouliot, Maroon, and Letestu

1 Year Rentals and Salary Dumps:
IN: Johnson, Halak, Plekanec
OUT: Fayne

Prospects and Picks:
IN: 2nd, 3rd & 6th Round picks
OUT: Caleb Jones, Nick Ellis, 2nd & 3rd Round picks.

Free Agency:
IN: Spencer Foo

treevojo

Lowetide:
Cats On The Prowl‏
@Cats0ntheprowl
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No moves were made on D today, so #FlaPanthers opted to protect Yandle (NMC), Ekblad, Pysyk and Petrovic…Jason Demers exposed.

So we trade pouliot and this years 1st for Demers at a lower contract then the oil could sign him for last year and Woodguy starts posting again.

Sounds like a win-win to me.

JD_Wry

Centre of attention: bite us in the ass

I’m willing to bet not, although I doubt we see a sweep in the season battle again.

Think Kane is driven by money and Buffalo probably sees the writing on the wall. He already makes 5.25m and what does he want for an extension? 6×6.5? For a guy who is a handful to deal with off the ice and is often injured on it.

Talented but flawed player. Oilers should pass due to the potential extension cost. Maroon will sign for a lot less. No team is going to offer him much more than 4 per. They know the McDavid effect. And he doesn’t have the foot speed.

Oilers can find a replacement on the free agent market for a lot cheaper if Maroon wants too much to stay.

No need to trade for Kane. Just strikes me as a bad idea.

Jaxon

JDI:
Jaxon,

Still, we’re talking about an average of almost 14 games per season less than Maroon. He was injured more than Hall over that span, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. At least Hall played all 82 before his trade.

Sure Kane could play 164 in the next two seasons and prove me wrong, but I’m not betting the farm on it. And then we have the history of attitude issues.

Sure. The cracked ribs were crazy though, and he came back in 12 games. Have you ever had cracked ribs? That is amazing. I think that is a freak accident, that you can’t really claim is an injury history type thing. Was McDavid’s broken collar bone an injury prone type play? It was almost identical. If we can agree the cracked ribs don’t fall into the injury prone category, then you’re looking at a 62 game per season average. That is now within 9 games of Maroon. Now, if you consider he has matured and there won’t be as many off-ice issues that cause healthy scratches then most of the other games he missed come up too. I think a maturing Kane is creeping towards Maroon’s average. He’s 3 1/2 years younger and has way more skill. He scored 30 goals with Blake Wheeler and Andrew Ladd. While they are solid players, they have never been elite superstars. I do hear you, though. You’d have to have concerns pulling the trigger on a trade like that. But with Maroon’s great season being possibly an anomaly, a very real chance that he could bolt to St Louis next summer, his value most likely going down, now may be the time to cash in and Kane may be a good fit for a trading partner.

Jaxon:
My new crazy trade roster

https://capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/edit/360131

Roster Players:
IN: Gallagher, Hamonic, Jenner, E Kane
OUT: Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Pouliot, Maroon, and Letestu

1 Year Rentals and Salary Dumps:
IN: Johnson, Halak, Plekanec
OUT: Fayne

Prospects and Picks:
IN: 2nd, 3rd & 6th Round picks
OUT: Caleb Jones, Nick Ellis, 2nd & 3rd Round picks.

Free Agency:
IN: Spencer Foo

Crazy is the correct term.