THE EXPANSION LIST

by Lowetide

Earlier today, the NHL’s trade freeze arrived and now the entire league waits for the expansion draft and the first blush Vegas Golden Knights. There was a lot of speculation on Friday night surrounding Jordan Eberle but dawn Saturday arrived and the cooling had begun. I remain uncertain the open market value for No. 14 is enough to get a second pairing RHD. In today’s NHL, even a righty center like Derek Stepan might not get you that asset. We wait for the freeze to be over and look forward to the expansion draft.

ASSUMED PROTECTED LIST

  • Goal: Cam Talbot
  • Defense: Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom
  • Forwards: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian, Mark Letestu

This is the universally accepted list, I would put Jujhar Khaira on it but we should expect this to be the published list tomorrow. Mark Spector mentioned today that he could see Jordan Eberle not making this list, but that seems a distant bell.

INELIGIBLE LIST

  • Not Available: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Nick Ellis.

Edmonton got very lucky with the timing of the expansion draft, their list and Toronto’s will easily be the most valuable in the NHL. Two years from now? Edmonton would be reeling at the thought of an expansion draft.

NOTABLE ELIGIBLES

  • G Laurent Brossoit, D Mark Fayne, D Kris Russell (ufa), D Griffin Reinhart (rfa), D Jordan Oesterle (ufa), D Dillon Simpson (rfa), D David Musil (rfa), C Jujhar Khaira, C David Desharnais (ufa), L Benoit Pouliot, R Tyler Pitlick (ufa), R Iiro Pakarinen.

My bet is Griffin Reinhart, but the Golden Knights may end up with a plethora of LHD and could choose Benoit Pouliot, Laurent Brossoit or Jujhar Khaira instead.

Lots of conversations about trade options and tomorrow morning when we see the final lists there may be an opportunity to make a trade that includes LV taking on a big contract. That aside, Edmonton is in pretty good position heading into this expansion draft. The trade prices for sellers today were severe and that’s putting it lightly, best to keep your powder dry and maybe tomorrow brings a change in the weather.

Note: The protected lists are leaking (WSH, LAK) and if the Oilers list comes out tonight I’ll update this post.

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N64

Scungilli Slushy:
The Knights can a announce trades right. So today they may give us something, I’m hankering for some action!

No. League edict.

N64

JDI:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Well I’m drinking cooking sherry and maintaining that Demers’ fall from exalted UFA to expansion fodder speaks volumes. I just can’t tell what that says because of the cooking sherry.

Add Dumba. He fell from Chia trade target last summer to the useless fodder pile this year.

Scungilli Slushy

The Knights can a announce trades right. So today they may give us something, I’m hankering for some action!

N64

Scungilli Slushy:
It seemed as though coming up to this there were going to be lots of D available and few good forwards. Reading through the lists I get the opposite impression.

Standard caveat in looking at the list.

Pierre LeBrun @PierreVLeBrun

A reminder: some of the players you will see exposed today may already be protected in another fashion by a side deal with Vegas

russ99

Petrovic and Pysyk were protected, we’ll need to look elsewhere for our D trade with Vegas

No thanks on Demers, contract too weighty and poor performance most of the year outside of shot metrics,

Hope Chia can make a deal to get Pouliot selected.

Alpine

Ducey:
TSN is saying that NYI gave up a first to have Vegas lay off their F.

Guess that makes sense. Isles don’t really need more prospects.

Ducey

TSN is saying that NYI gave up a first to have Vegas lay off their F.

N64

Alpine:
NYI protected Pelech over Nelson. Snow has lost it lmao. They’re HAS to be some sort of deal worked out there.

They went 5D like NYCOil and others thought. But left de Haan

.

Arthur Staple @StapeNewsday

#Isles leave Nelson, Strome, de Haan unprotected. Would indicate there’s a deal in place to keep Vegas away from those three

Scungilli Slushy

It seemed as though coming up to this there were going to be lots of D available and few good forwards. Reading through the lists I get the opposite impression.

N64

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger

Available Oilers: Pouliot, Pakarinen, Fayle and Brossoit

#EpicFayle

Rhineheart and Korea are available too.

Alpine

NYI protected Pelech over Nelson. Snow has lost it lmao. They’re HAS to be some sort of deal worked out there.

N64

Pouzar:
Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC2m2 minutes ago
MoreJordan Eberle was protected by EDM.

Shocking news. Spector will survive the disappoinment.

Rondo

Pierre LeBrun‏Verified account @PierreVLeBrun 2m2 minutes ago
More
Both Vatanen and Manson were left unprotected by the Ducks (Bieksa had to be protected). But again, belief is that Ducks have deal with VG

Pouzar

Darren Dreger‏Verified account @DarrenDreger 26s26 seconds ago
More
Available Oilers: Pouliot, Pakarinen, Fayle and Brossoit.

Pouzar

Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC 2m2 minutes ago
More
Jordan Eberle was protected by EDM.

N64

Kinger_Oil.redux: Barring late curve

So Matty did not know 16 hours after the list was submitted. Access. to Chia is limited. Late curve indeed.

Chia: Hey George. Last minute curve. But that list I submitted yesterday isn’t the final one.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty
Barring late curve, Edm protected list will be Draisaitl, Lucic, RNH, Eberle, Maroon, Kassian, Letestu, Larsson, Klefbom, Sekera, Talbot
9:09 AM – 18 Jun 2017

N64

Diablo: essentially LV has agreed to take on Clarkson’s contract (big cap dump)

And Clarkson is on the IR.Very low bar.

Diablo

N64: https://www.nhl.com/news/c-281010682?tid=281011650

You’re right and I stand corrected … though I don’t think the moves GMs were making last summer were predicated too heavily on what they would have to expose this summer (look at Florida for example). Certainly it wouldn’t have changed the math with Demers and the Oilers – if we’d signed him instead of trading for Larsson, then we (probably) would have protected Demers, Sekera and Klefbom.

LT – I think the idea of trying to get Demers this summer, and playing him behind Larsson on the 2nd pairing is an option Chia should aggressively pursue now – sorry if I made it sound otherwise (though my first preference is to get Pulock – cheaper, and younger with a better RH point shot).

The only thing is cost – from all reports it appears that Columbus has set the bar for what a first round pick in the 20’s is worth this year … essentially LV has agreed to take on Clarkson’s contract (big cap dump), in exchanged for a 1st, a waivers exempt prospect (likely) and they’ll still get to select Murray …. too me it seems like they’ve set the bar pretty low.

Earlier I had thought that we could trade #22 to LV, and they would take Pouliot off our hands AND they would send back a centre or RHD …. seems that I was being what I often accuse others of …. overly optimistic.

N64

Diablo: last summer absolutely no one here was talking about expansion drafts

And yet if you had clicked on the link provided for Trovojo an hour earlier there was NYCOil discussing exactly that here in early June even before expansion and the main draft parameters were officially announced on the 3rd day of summer.

Diablo we had no idea at the time that there would be one

Well here’s one guy who seemed to know on June 22. At least 30 cities wanted to know how a draft would impact new free agent contracts.

https://www.nhl.com/news/c-281010682?tid=281011650

“The team coming into the most competitive league in sports will have a roster that will be competitive more quickly than prior expansions,” Commissioner Bettman said.
To get there, Las Vegas must select one player from each of the existing 30 teams, including at least 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goalies. It must select a minimum of 20 players who have existing contracts that carry through the 2017-18 season and the average annual value of the total contracts it takes on must be at least 60 percent of the 2016-17 season salary-cap limit, which is $73 million.

Diablo:so who’s making up revisionist BS now?

I wonder who 😉

2 revisionist double negatives and a belly flop. Daring dive.

highgloveside

If Florida would take even $750k on Demers contract, I would be fine paying $3.75 for 4 years as a 29 year old. Everyone seems to think that would be an okay cap for resigning Russel and Demers is a better fit at that same price.

Diablo:
No issues with this summary of your second comment here:

“I know its a very unpopular position around here, but I still feel Chia made the right choice last summer to pass on Demers and acquire Larsson, in spite of the cost.”

I think your position isn’t that unpopular and lots of people agree with you. It’s hard to prove either way since we don’t have parallel universes we can access, but the standings improvement is in your favour despite various caveats (healthy Klefbom, healthy McDavid).

My only issue was with the comment that people thought Demers should be signed and NOT exposed and therefore they should essentially eat crow. Mine was not the only opinion. Others also said sign him if you don’t need to give out the NMC, meaning specifically leaving him exposed in the draft.

Your opinion that Larsson > Demers + Hall is certainly a valid opinion to have and my comment was not directed at that. My objection was your suggestion that Demers not being on the protected list somehow is proof of this and those with other opinions should eat their hats, when those people mostly never intended to put Demers on the expansion draft protection list anyway.

That’s where I said you were being revisionist. I apologize if that offended you, but you did come off rather aggressively in your first post where you decided to rub this in people’s faces.

Your rebuttal is fair and well-written, and I thank you for that.

who

Diablo: Huh?

Seriously nothing of what you wrote there made sense in the least – who was talking about NMCs – I wasn’t. And last summer absolutely no one here was talking about expansion drafts – because we had no idea at the time that there would be one – so who’s making up revisionist BS now?

What I was alluding to was the events of last summer, when Lucic and Demers came in for an interview with the brass, after which there were two possible roads available …
A) Sign Demers, keep Hall
B) Trade Hall for Larsson, sign Lucic

Our GM took road B.

After which all damn year, the smug wanna-be GMs here have said that the Oilers made the wrong choice – first off, acting as if signing Demers was fait accompli – completely ignoring the very real possibility that he preferred to live in the tax-free sunshine of Florida.

AND positing that Demers would have been just as good an option as Larsson. And to that I said in the above post that no, he’s not. He’s a decent 2nd pairing D-man who, if he had signed with the Oilers, would have been playing way over his head on the first pairing with Klefbom.

I’m sorry LT, but with or without Kindl, this year Demers got caved in playing BEHIND Ekblad on their 2nd pairing. And now he’s expansion fodder, for one of the few teams that decided to protect 4D.

I know its a very unpopular position around here, but I still feel Chia made the right choice last summer to pass on Demers and acquire Larsson, in spite of the cost.

It’s a popular position with me. I have maintained all along that Larsson is a big upgrade over Demers.

treevojo

Diablo: Huh?

Seriously nothing of what you wrote there made sense in the least – who was talking about NMCs – I wasn’t. And last summer absolutely no one here was talking about expansion drafts – because we had no idea at the time that there would be one – so who’s making up revisionist BS now?

What I was alluding to was the events of last summer, when Lucic and Demers came in for an interview with the brass, after which there were two possible roads available …
A) Sign Demers, keep Hall
B) Trade Hall for Larsson, sign Lucic

Our GM took road B.

After which all damn year, the smug wanna-be GMs here have said that the Oilers made the wrong choice – first off, acting as if signing Demers was fait accompli – completely ignoring the very real possibility that he preferred to live in the tax-free sunshine of Florida.

AND positing that Demers would have been just as good an option as Larsson. And to that I said in the above post that no, he’s not. He’s a decent 2nd pairing D-man who, if he had signed with the Oilers, would have been playing way over his head on the first pairing with Klefbom.

I’m sorry LT, but with or without Kindl, this year Demers got caved in playing BEHIND Ekblad on their 2nd pairing. And now he’s expansion fodder, for one of the few teams that decided to protect 4D.

I know its a very unpopular position around here, but I still feel Chia made the right choice last summer to pass on Demers and acquire Larsson, in spite of the cost.

N64: https://lowetide.ca/2016/06/03/long-way-to-happy/comment-page-1/#comment-534712

Click on the link

Diablo

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:

Huh?

Seriously nothing of what you wrote there made sense in the least – who was talking about NMCs – I wasn’t. And last summer absolutely no one here was talking about expansion drafts – because we had no idea at the time that there would be one – so who’s making up revisionist BS now?

What I was alluding to was the events of last summer, when Lucic and Demers came in for an interview with the brass, after which there were two possible roads available …
A) Sign Demers, keep Hall
B) Trade Hall for Larsson, sign Lucic

Our GM took road B.

After which all damn year, the smug wanna-be GMs here have said that the Oilers made the wrong choice – first off, acting as if signing Demers was fait accompli – completely ignoring the very real possibility that he preferred to live in the tax-free sunshine of Florida.

AND positing that Demers would have been just as good an option as Larsson. And to that I said in the above post that no, he’s not. He’s a decent 2nd pairing D-man who, if he had signed with the Oilers, would have been playing way over his head on the first pairing with Klefbom.

I’m sorry LT, but with or without Kindl, this year Demers got caved in playing BEHIND Ekblad on their 2nd pairing. And now he’s expansion fodder, for one of the few teams that decided to protect 4D.

I know its a very unpopular position around here, but I still feel Chia made the right choice last summer to pass on Demers and acquire Larsson, in spite of the cost.

Gerta Rauss

gadot10: Justin Faulk at 3 x $4.9 million

treevojo: If it costs eberle.Yes.

If it costs nuge. Maybe.

I’d do Nuge for Faulk but this is the problem I’m having this evening(and our host has been stating for the last 12 hours)

I don’t think Ebs even gets you in the conversation, and I think Nuge is the starting point if you’re asking about Faulk-Car is going to want Nuge + and maybe ++

I don’t think Chia needs to force a trade-I’m prepared to look at plan B(insert plan B here)

*edit-and that’s assuming that Faulk is even available

treevojo

JDI: Or licking urinals clean?

I wouldn’t want to do any of the 3 options but I have a year of hindsight.

I would be ok with Russel for 3 more years at 10 mil total.

slopitch

I can see one of the 1sts being an edm one if the right C or D is available to Vegas.

JD_Wry

Go to bed now so that you can make the protection list presser tomorrow at 8.

treevojo

gadot10: Justin Faulk at 3 x $4.9 million

If it costs eberle. Yes.

If it costs nuge. Maybe.

JD_Wry

treevojo: ?

Or licking urinals clean?

gadot10

treevojo:
treevojo,

What is more palatable?

Demers 5 x 5.6

Or

Russel 5 x 3.82

?

Justin Faulk at 3 x $4.9 million

Gerta Rauss

fifthcartel: I don’t know if the term and money are that difficult to take on. Demers has 4 years left at 4.5m per

I tend to agree-the money is fine, the term is not ideal

I’m not sure if Demers is the guy you wager on to get this team to the next level (I’m asking, not stating unequivocally)…I just don’t know

treevojo

treevojo,

What is more palatable?

Demers 5 x 5.6

Or

Russel 5 x 3.82

?

treevojo

N64: https://lowetide.ca/2016/06/03/long-way-to-happy/comment-page-1/#comment-534712

Thank you

I guess we could have protected ourself by carrying Demers at a 5.6 mil contract for years to come.

fifthcartel

Lowetide:
Demers is fine. Florida had a bad year and I can’t tell you what the helll was going on during 125 minutes with Jakub Kindl, but he’s fine. The problem is money and term of course.

I don’t know if the term and money are that difficult to take on. Demers has 4 years left at 4.5m per, so you’re getting his age 29-33 years, not the most ideal time frame but he should be able to be productive for at least 2 years, likely 3.

There’s talk about giving KR 4×4, and Demers is a much much better bet, and provides an actual RH shot.

JD_Wry

Scungilli Slushy:
Nice

Just don’t smoke near the sherry.

Scungilli Slushy

Nice

N64

Scungilli Slushy: I don’t follow, JDI got me shmammed on cooking liquors.

Randy Newman reference

Klima's_Bucket

Based on Florida’s protection list, I’m assuming they hope Demers is picked by Vegas.
They can then use the money saved to acquire a Left Shot D so the fans in South Florida never have to see Jakub Kindl play ever again.

And if Marchesseault is picked they can then trade Demers themselves.

Scungilli Slushy

N64: ~ Watch out for those grubby little fingers~

I don’t follow, JDI got me shmammed on cooking liquors.

N64

Scungilli Slushy:
Guys, Marchessaultis turning 27, is 5’9″ and 174 lbs according to hockey DB, has 38 NHL goals in 124 NHL games, 30 last year. He’ll also need a UFA contract after next season. Maybe our GM kids is learning. Screams bad contract coming. Not us please.

EDIT: 15.5% SH% too boot

~ Watch out for those grubby little fingers ~

JD_Wry

Ducey: floor wax

Mussch cheeper then reel sharry! HA!

Ducey

JDI: I think they cut this stuff with industrial floor wax. Either that, or they cut industrial floor wax with cooking sherry.

I think this proves you drink floor wax

JD_Wry

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: eat your hats

This tinfoil is really bothering my fillings.

Scungilli Slushy

Guys, Marchessault is turning 27, is 5’9″ and 174 lbs according to hockey DB, has 38 NHL goals in 124 NHL games, 30 last year. He’ll also need a UFA contract after next season. Maybe our GM kids is learning. Screams bad contract coming. Not us please.

EDIT: 15.5% SH% too boot

Florida also protected Bjugstad over Marchessault.

Maybe they left Demers exposed thinking Marchessault would get picked over him anyway.

Or they are crazy…size aside Bjugstad over a 30 goal guy making 750k a year.

Lots of plausible theories other than Demers sucks, eat your hats.
🙂

JD_Wry

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: worrying about Brossoit haha.

He still looks very shiny from where I sit. Oh wait…