WATERSHED

by Lowetide

I have this working theory that history is about to repeat itself. Remember when we talked about Frank Seravalli’s list at the beginning of June 2016? That list is here, and the Oilers were ranked thusly:

  • No. 1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  • No. 4: Oilers first-round pick (No. 4)
  • No. 12: Jordan Eberle
  • No. 18: Nail Yakupov

That was the June 3, 2016. Edmonton had four of the 18 names on the list and the commentary was Edmonton-centric.

  • Frank SeravalliThe emergence of Leon Draisaitl, along with Connor McDavid, makes young centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins the most logical departure. Chiarelli raised eyebrows around the league when he left Nugent-Hopkins off the initial roster of 16 players selected for Team North America in the upcoming World Cup of Hockey. Nugent-Hopkins was one of the final seven players added to the team on May 27. Source

He might have been the logical choice but the Nuge apparently didn’t turn the needle enough to get Peter Chiarelli’s defensive fix. By the morning of June 29, 2016, the list had changed:

  • No. 1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  • No. 4: Taylor Hall
  • No. 7: Nail Yakupov
  • No. 10: Jordan Eberle
  • Source

On the exact day he was dealt, Taylor Hall appeared on the list and there was clearly something going on around Nail. The amount of work that goes into these things must be exhaustive and credit to Seravalli (and others) for moving Hall up by the end of the month and his trade. Based on the way he conducts business, suspect the rankings received no aid from Peter Chiarelli.

The trade bait list gave us a road map on what was a series of moving targets throughout last spring. The No. 4 pick was in play until Jesse Puljujarvi fell, Hall then entered the conversation (around the draft) and the deal was completed right at the end of June. At the beginning of the month, if we believe this list, Hall was not a front runner for trade.

FAST FORWARD

This June, the early list had Jordan Eberle at No. 6 and no other Oilers player listed. Two weeks later and Mr. Seravalli has Mr. Eberle at No. 3 and no other Edmonton player appears. Maybe we see a trade today, but on the other side of the expansion draft I wonder if the Nuge arrives at No. 4 with a bullet. The Fourth Period has Carolina, Montreal, Columbus and Detroit asking after 93.

I have to say, on this day at least, all signs point to sail on, Regina Patricia.

THE PRICE YOU PAY

  • Aaron Portzline, Columbus Dispatch: The Jackets are believed to be trading this year’s first-round draft pick (No. 24 overall) and a prospect (not Pierre-Luc Dubois or Sonny Milano) to Vegas for assurances that the Golden Knights will select either left wing Matt Calvert, center William Karlsson or defenseman Ryan Murray. Vegas’ acquisition of the contract of injured veteran forward David Clarkson ($5.25 million salary cap hit) may also be part of the deal. Source

I am breaking my 24-hour rule so please click on the link, I assure you there is more interesting content there. Helluva article and the first big news of the weekend. The Golden Knights may walk away with a prospect, No. 24 overall and (say) Ryan Murray. They won’t take any of the top end talent the Blue Jackets must expose and they will be taking on Clarkson’s $5.25 million times three years deal.

TYSON BARRIE

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.10 (1st among regular Colorado defensemen)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.81 (eight points in 208 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.1
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 0.9
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 43.3
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -1.2 (28 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 182 shots/3.8%
  • Boxcars: 74gp, 7-31-38
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

I would prefer Travis Hamonic by some margin, there there are things to like about this player. First, he puts up points, 31 of them away from the PP this past season. He has chaos to his game, and didn’t play 33 percent of his time against elites, but his DFF rel isn’t wacko compared to the rest of the group. Overall Corsi 5×5 is good, actually, considering the team. I suspect you’d be looking at a spike in goals and power-play points for Barrie in 2018-19. If you get him for Eberle (I still think the Avs would prefer Nuge), the top 6D opening night might be Klefbom-Larsson, Russell-Barrie, Nurse-Benning. Then again, maybe trading for Barrie prices Edmonton out of the Russell marketplace. I’ll tell you one thing about Barrie: You’ll have enormous reaction to his play. He’s got a lot going on.

DEREK STEPAN?

No. Money’s too tight to mention. Yes to Mika Zibanejad, though, all day. NYR are looking for a top pairing RH blue for Mr. Stepan. Tough to find. Source

MOCK DRAFT TODAY!

Today at noon on TSN1260, Paul Almeida and I will host a mock draft! We’ll have a 1-30 format, and guests popping in to make selections. Here is the lineup at this time:

All ties will be broken by my list (which appears here) and just for fun I’ll publish the top 30 names:

 

  1. RC Nolan Patrick, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). A complete talent but not an elite one.  NHLE is 33.1, a low number for a No. 1 overall.
  2. LC Nico Hischier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). A more dynamic offensive player than Patrick. His NHLE (30.9) is also low.
  3. R Owen Tippett, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). He covers 3 important categories (size, speed, sniper). His NHLE (30.8) doesn’t tell his entire offensive story.
  4. L Elias Pettersson, Timra (Swe-1). Impressive talent, very skilled.
  5. RD Timothy Liljegren, Rogle (Swe Jr). He is a mobile 2-way D with impressive skill.
  6. RC Cody Glass, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Complete skill set and an offensive performance that puts him near the top of this year’s list (NHLE: 32.4).
  7. LC Casey Mittelstadt, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Speed and skill, he’s going very early on day one of the draft. Offense good not great.
  8. RD Cale Makar, Brooks Bandits (AJHL). Fast, exceptional puck-moving acumen. His foot speed can help on offense and defense, and he’s a smart player.
  9. RC Gabriel Vilardi, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Creative C with size, NHLE (33) and a fabulous Memorial Cup performance.
  10. L Eeli Tolvanen, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Plus skater, NHL shot and release.
  11. R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart, elusive, offensive. NHLE (36.2) compares well to any in this draft.
  12. RC Nick Suzuki, Owen Sound Attack (OHL).  Skill and creativity, he’s a magician with the puck and his NHLE (36.3) is the highest among the top group of CHL players this season.
  13. LD Miro Heiskanen, HIFK (Sm-Liiga). Puck-mover, excellent vision/speed.
  14. RC Robert Thomas, London Knights (OHL). Speedy forward, creative. RHC with the complete range of skills.
  15. LC Lias Andersson, Linkoping (SHL). Throwback 2-way C, aggressive, quick. 5.11, 200.
  16. RC Martin Necas, Brno (Czech). High speed skill. Moving up lists late.
  17. LD Juuso Valimaki, Tri-City Americans (WHL). A big two-way D, smart, creative. He is a fine skater and has good size.
  18. R Klim Kostin, Balashikha (MHL). Giant winger, good offense. He is 6.03, 196 and possesses a quality offensive resume despite (basically) being hurt all year.
  19. C Michael Rasmussen, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Big C, physical, good skater. I like him a lot (late birthday, size) but am uncertain about his offense (NHLE 26.2).
  20. LD Nicholas Hague, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Rangy, aggressive, emerging offense. He had 204 shots in 65 OHL games while scoring 18 goals, meaning he might be a modern (more mobile) Sheldon Souray.
  21. R Kole Lind, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Speedy W with skill. He’s a really close comparable in style to my recollection of Jordan Eberle and he can beat a goalie clean with his shot. NHLE (29.6) is solid.
  22. L Kristian Vesalainen, Frolunda (SHL). Big W, skilled, strong, can play L or R. He is fast and furious as a player and had a strong U18’s, but his regular season was mediocre.
  23. LD Erik Brannstrom, HV71 (SHL). Undersized skill defender, outstanding skater. A late 1999 who played in the SHL this past season, he’s going to be a difficult player to pass on for Edmonton (ideal fit).
  24. LC Alexei Lipanov, Dyanmo Balashikha (VHL). Impressive 2-way resume and he is an excellent skater. He is rail thin and has more room to grow, like him more as an offensive player than some in the two-way department.
  25. LC Ryan Poehling, St. Cloud State (NCAA). Big skill C with an offensive reputation. I think he would have been better off playing in the USHL this past season.
  26. LC Joshua Norris, USNDTP (USHL). Two-way C showing good offense and he spiked late. He was terrific at the U18’s.
  27. RC Ivan Lodnia, Erie Otters (OHL). Small skill F, great skater. He is more playmaker than shooter, and despite lack of size can hold off checkers and maintain possession.
  28. RD Conor Timmins, SSE Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, reads plays well, excellent passer. Nice range of skills, uncertain how much offense (NHLE: 22.3) he’ll bring with him to the NHL but there’s a story for sure. If the Oilers pick him at No. 22, there should be no surprise.
  29. RC Scott Reedy, USNDTP (USHL). Center with speed, range of skills, dynamic. Has some elements associated with a power forward and possesses a good shot.
  30. RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). C w/2-way rep and emerging offense. This is his second year of eligibility but his spike offensively (90 points from 25 a year ago). He’s not as dynamic as the names above but he really stepped forward this year.

 

 

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theres oil in virginia

gadot10: Werenski and Jones stole Murray’s cheese, like McDavid and Draisaitl stole Hall’s.Johnson and Savard formed a good shutdown pairing.The Blue Jackets have other young D prospects, some ready for the third pairing.Murray is getting to the point were he will be paid a veteran’s salary, and on a 3rd pairing that is okayonly if you don’t have cheaper younger options.

Yeah, I hear ya. I’m just thinking that if LV selects one of the d-men that CBJ isn’t protecting, other than Murray, he’s not a bad fallback position. Certainly not bad enough to throw a 1st rd pick at LV over the difference. I almost think LV might want to draft Murray anyway. That’s why I think this stuff is mostly smokescreen.

Chachi

Dixs35,

😉

JD_Wry

OriginalPouzar: He will be back in the WHL next season.

And hopefully in a good core strengthening program this summer. Scheduled to be in Penticton as per Matty, I believe.

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar:
Someone mentioned Benson and Bakersfield but that is not possible – still too young.He will be back in the WHL next season.

And Vancouver would have traded him this past deadline if he were going to Bakersfield next season.

They kept him to lead the younger squad. He technically has 2 more years eligible (although hopefully gets to the AHL after next season).

OriginalPouzar

Someone mentioned Benson and Bakersfield but that is not possible – still too young. He will be back in the WHL next season.

JD_Wry

And:

comment image

JD_Wry

And the leaking of the protection lists has begun!

The Mayor John Hoven‏ @mayorNHL

Can confirm…

LA Kings protected Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, Forbort

#NHLExpansionDraft

Dixs35

Chachi,

Solid last crusade reference

TheFinn60

Lowetide,

I agree, and I think Chia have tried hard to free up Pouliot by “giving” him to LV but that might be a hard one to pull without giving up a pick in the draft or keep 30-50% of his salary. The money could be used to sign a Justin Williams type of guy for a couple of years to see where Pulju and the other prospects on the development curve.

Think Foo will sign with Oil and hopefully he is as ready as Caligula was last fall so there is competion for the roster spot on the right side.

I sencerly hope that Benson can attend training camp so one can get an indication on on where he is at. Hopefully he can get to Bakersfield during the year.
Most likely Ebs will be traded for a RHD through LV, IF not I think you will see both him and Nuge as Ollers comes the fall.

There is hope for the future but to get the cup this year they need some help up front as well as on the back end to fill in for Sekera and have some depth. Can’t be verry
expansive guys on long term contracts but a couple of years for a skater at 4 Mill should be possible IF not Dri and McD “eats” to much of cap space.

Also think Chia likes Russell lots and coach too so he might get a to generous contract.

Still hope they can get Petrovic through dealing Ebs to LV, provifded Petrovic enda up there.

Chia knows what he has to play with so lets what comes out of it in the next 10 days or so.

They can also take a chance on not doing much, say they trust Benning and Nurse and go for a start of the season like that and then deal for a D if necessary. Plenty options there. The scoring needs addressing now thou and that might be a free agency signing, short term.

Interesting times.

jtblack

Holy. That was almost as anti climatic as the Trade Deadline …

I love all the rumors of “imminent deal”; “trade pending”; “lots of interest” …. OR NOT!!!!!

Jaxon

MY crazy Armchair GM trades:

Sign Foo, Spencer 2 years @ $925,000
Trade #1:
EDM
Hamonic, T (3 yrs left @ $3.86M)
Halak, J (1 yr left @ $4.5M)
NYI
Eberle, J ($1,000,000 retained).
Fayne, M.

Trade#2:
EDM
Gallagher, B (4 yrs left @ $3.75M)
Plekanec, T (1 yr left @ $6.0M)
2017 2nd round pick (WSH)
MTL
Nugent-Hopkins, R.
Pouliot, B.
2017 3rd round pick (STL)

Trade #3:
EDM
Jenner, B (1 yr to RFA @ $2.9M)
Johnson, J (1 yr left @ $4.36M)
2017 3rd round pick (CBJ)
CBJ
Jones, C.
Ellis, N.
2017 2nd round pick (WSH)

CAP SPACE Left: $8.18M

https://capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/360131

When Sekera comes back you can trade Johnson for picks to stay under the cap. You can trade Halak & Plekanec as well for more draft picks next summer unless you feel they’ll put you over the top as a contender.

JD_Wry

Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli 14m14 minutes ago

Shameless plug: Tune in #TSNHockey Expansion Draft special show tomorrow at 10:30am on TSN1/3/4/5, just 30 min after protection lists reveal

Wakey wakey for father’s day.

McSorley33

Wow.

Thought there would be more deals…

LV stocking up on draft picks?

Not a great draft year for that …..assume some will be 2018 picks.

Pescador

Alpine:
Oilers have McDavid as the PP QB. They don’t need to pay a PP QB type defensemen over 5 million unless they’re a net positive at evens. I don’t believe Barrie matches the second part of that too well. I’d stay away unless COL retains and/or the Oilers acquire him for a song.

Agree McDavid is the PP QB,
best in the NHL?
I think Barrie would be a great add, I also think his possession numbers suffered because Avs.
Which song?

N64

Pescador: Ah, then I suppose my answer then is yes.
Which in turn would free up enough cap space to keep Eberle.
Still need 1 second pairing D man ,maybe 2
Imagine If the only business the Oilers do is give Russell $10 Million over 3 years,
yikes.

I can imagine 16 over 4. Imagination is dangerous.

Pescador

N64: Sorry. You responded to a yes or no question I threw out to anyone. Was curious if you would doPou + Fayne + 1st deal to Vegas. By up or down I meant if no alternatives on table. Slushy’s proposal. Curious what others made of it

Ah, then I suppose my answer then is yes.
Which in turn would free up enough cap space to keep Eberle.
Still need 1 second pairing D man ,maybe 2
Imagine If the only business the Oilers do is give Russell $10 Million over 3 years,
yikes.

McNuge93

Marc,

Are you talking about the Bulin wall signing?

N64

JDI:
N64,

Curious to see what the deal will be, but the Ducks don’t really need D back.

Fleury, Vatanen, Enstrom and Murray will be a great start for the Knights.

You’d think Vegas prices went up at 1 pm when other trade options were extinguished .
.
Wonder how many teams made deals with Vegas today? And how many actually leak info like the Ducks rumor?.

JD_Wry

N64,

Curious to see what the deal will be, but the Ducks don’t really need D back.

Fleury, Vatanen, Enstrom and Murray will be a great start for the Knights.

Chamucks

2nd rounder and a pick swap for Mueller and Beulieau (s?) goes for a 3rd.

N64

JDI:
David Pagnotta‏ @TheFourthPeriod


My understanding, as part of Ducks/Knights expected trade, is Vatanen will end up in Vegas. Other parameters to deal, but that’s main part.

So another D claimed by Vegas could go to the Ducks. LOL.

Alpine

Oilers have McDavid as the PP QB. They don’t need to pay a PP QB type defensemen over 5 million unless they’re a net positive at evens. I don’t believe Barrie matches the second part of that too well. I’d stay away unless COL retains and/or the Oilers acquire him for a song.

highgloveside

MTL just traded Beaulieu for a 3rd rd pick to BUF, Bergevin has lost it, go get him Chairelli, Nuge for Galchenyuk and Gallager.

JD_Wry

David Pagnotta‏ @TheFourthPeriod

My understanding, as part of Ducks/Knights expected trade, is Vatanen will end up in Vegas. Other parameters to deal, but that’s main part.

N64

Pescador: Sorry, You lost me.
Not exactly a hard thing to do.

Sorry. You responded to a yes or no question I threw out to anyone. Was curious if you would do Pou + Fayne + 1st deal to Vegas. By up or down I meant if no alternatives on table. Slushy’s proposal. Curious what others made of it

JD_Wry

Bruce Garrioch‏Verified account @SunGarrioch

Led to believe Cody Ceci has been informed he will be protected. That means either Phaneuf or Methot could be on the move. #Sens

Wow – Sens throwing around M-NTC/NMCs like Oprah gives away cars. NINE?

https://capfriendly.com/teams/senators

Pescador

N64: I meant up or down. No other deal on table.

Sorry, You lost me.
Not exactly a hard thing to do. 🙂

highgloveside

I prefer Barrie over Hamonic. Hamonic is a lesser Larsson with minimal offence. Hamonic does not fill as much of a need, which is a PP QB and those are very difficult to find. Barrie greatly improves the transition game over Hamonic which equals more offensive chances for McDavid and Draisaitl. Transition game is key in todays NHL.

Everyone looks at Barrie’s weaknesses when they should be focusing on his strengths and his strengths are needed more than Hamonics strengths. Barrie is also on a horrible team that was without Eric Johnson for half the season. Barrie is a 50-60 pt dman on the Oilers, and I take that over Hamonic every day.

Barrie will rebound on the Oilers like Schultz did on the Pens. Barrie will move from 1st pair to 2nd pair and #4 dman on the Oilers.

If the Oilers want to win in the next couple years, they will need an offensive dman like Barrie so when a player like that is available, they have to make that trade.

Also, Hamonic replacing Russel makes the Oilers marginally better, Barrie can make the Oilers the best offensive team in the league with a minimal dip in defensive play. Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse and Bennings growth will more than make up for that dip.

If Chairelli can get one of Faulk or Barrie, you make that trade.

JD_Wry

Bob McKenzie‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie 3m3 minutes ago

NHL teams can resume trading tomorrow morning at 10 ET only if their trading partner is VGK. Otherwise, no deals/signing until Thurs 8 am ET

JD_Wry

trencan: This is it? Thats all?

I know, eh?

I haven’t wasted so much time on a Saturday morning since last weekend.

trencan

This is it? Thats all? Wow. So half of the first round on draft this year belongs to LV?

Barcs

As an Oilers fan, I’m ecstatic about the Flame picking up Smith. Oh baby.

Also, boy is Bergevin ruining Montreal.

N64

JDI: Ten minutes to midnight.

Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
·
41s

Montreal and the Islanders tell me they’re done for the day. Potentially, two big players next week.

Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
·
4m

MIN not making a trade by the 3 p.m. ET freeze

JD_Wry
highgloveside

4 teams suggested to be interested in Nuge

CAR – Faulk
CBJ – Nuge and for Jenner and Josh Anderson
MTL – Galchenyuk and 3rd (would love to have a package brings Gallager as well)
DET – no fit

ashley

N64: Coyotes aquire Chad Johnson.

Flames channeling the ’09 Oilers with a bulin-esque move.

N64

Pescador: Eberle goes to Vegas for a 2RD.
Oilers fill 1 hole- open another on RW,
Which IMO will be easier to fill (RW) in free agency or at the draft.
Not necessarily my preference but I’m thinking of team needs.

I meant up or down. No other deal on table.

Pescador

N64: Cap room for McDrai and killer D with some discounts from them. No else goes to Vegas. Yes or No, anyone?

Eberle goes to Vegas for a 2RD.
Oilers fill 1 hole- open another on RW,
Which IMO will be easier to fill (RW) in free agency or at the draft.
Not necessarily my preference but I’m thinking of team needs.

Richard S.S.

Possible $75.0 Million Cap Hit next season?

JD_Wry

Chamucks: All is quiet.

Ten minutes to midnight.

JD_Wry

Pescador: Steve Simmons unprotected unclaimed

He and Cox, eating cold borscht and flying on old Yak-42s.

Chamucks

All is quiet. I don’t honestly like it.

Pescador

JDI: They’re groin to regret that move.

Not too late to pull it

Pescador

John Chambers:
Sports broadcaster expansion draft –
You can protect three (3) writers from the local media and seven (7) from the National media.

I protect:
LT, Willis, Staples and McCurdy
Ferraro, Friedman, McClean, Harnarayan Singh

I probably give up a draft pick to have them take Remenda or Spector.

Steve Simmons unprotected unclaimed

N64

Marc: Any time you get the opportunity to get a guy that is old, expensive and may fall off a cliff in the near-future, you just gotta do it!

Very useful for tanking.

N64

LT. You were wondering on the air if protection deals with Vegas are just a verbal. I believe this time they must go through the trade call process and then they are embargoed until the Vegas reveal

Marc

Lowetide:
Mike Smith to Calgary is good news.

“The deal boils down to two players that probably were going to walk at some point in the near-future and a third round pick for a goalie that can play a lot, but is old, expensive and may fall off a cliff in the near-future. It’s definitely a gamble.” (https://flamesnation.ca/2017/06/17/flames-acquire-mike-smith-from-arizona-coyotes/)

Any time you get the opportunity to get a guy that is old, expensive and may fall off a cliff in the near-future, you just gotta do it!

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Beaulieu for a 3rd: at worst he’s your 3rd LHD. Good insurance for the Oil, wait for Sek to come back. Don’t break the bank, they could go that kind of route: a real NHL D at least

– The 3rd is interesting: Presumably MTL wasn’t going to protect him, and getting a 3rd for him was more than LV was going to offer. (they probably take our man Davidson now)

– Wonder what Buffalo exposes:these moves are clues to what’s happening behind the scenes

JD_Wry

Marc: Montreal didn’t get the memo though…

Best tweet of the day so far:

Andy Cole‏ @AndyCole84 15m15 minutes ago

BERGEVIN: hello?
BENNING: hi Marc, Trevor said you were doing bad trades right now?
LINDEN: *from next room* dont actually say that to him!

trencan

N64: Coyotes aquire Chad Johnson.

Chad Johnson
Brandon Hickey
2018 third-round pick (conditional)