2017 DRAFT POST NO. 7: LETTING THE DAYS GO BY (WATER FLOWING UNDERGROUND)

by Lowetide

We’re counting down to the expansion and entry drafts and the distant drums keep pounding out the same beat: Jordan Eberle (photo by Rob Ferguson) to Denver or Brooklyn. Jordan Eberle has been a consistent offensive player since arriving in Edmonton fall 2010. Per 82gp, Eberle has scored 64 points, and he had played 80+ games in two of his last three seasons. And yet (whatever he’s done) is staring down the barrel of a gun, or at least that’s the storyline in our town.

JORDAN EBERLE 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.76 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.47 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.8
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 2.3
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 50.0
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 2.1
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 208 shots/9.6%
  • Boxcars: 82, 20-31-51
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

The numbers are good and I have a feeling the big issue for Peter Chiarelli (and Todd McLellan) was playoff performance. They said all the right things, but both men know you don’t get a final eight (like the one we had in spring) every year. Gotta close those chances. If Jordan Eberle’s line had scored more in the Anaheim series, well, maybe things end differently (and later). Bet that’s part of the internal conversation. Human nature (da da da da da da da da). If Peter Chiarelli can pry Travis Hamonic out of Brooklyn for him, that’s a win. Other rumors I have read? Less so.

SNOW DAY

An article yesterday afternoon in New York Newsday gives us a clue about George McPhee’s plan of attack for the coming expansion draft. His verbal (so far) has indicated a willingness to acquire bad contracts in exchange for picks and prospects.

  • Arthur StapleThe deal also includes a third piece going to Vegas. There is a strong possibility that it would be Mikhail Grabovski, who has yet to be cleared to play after suffering a concussion in March of 2016. Grabovski’s $5-million cap hit is on the books for one more season for the Islanders, who are already within $4 million and change of the coming season’s $75-million salary cap. Source

There are more details in the article, I encourage you to click on the link. One of the other elements is a first-round pick, something the Golden Knights clearly value. If true, that gives you an idea about the asking price for getting a $5 million contract (involving a player who you won’t be counting on next season) off your books. It informs us about the asking price for Mark Fayne (who would be in the range) or Benoit Pouliot (the cost might be more dear). I think it best for Peter Chiarelli to look elsewhere to save dollars, and of course both Fayne and Pouliot may end up helping the Oilers in the coming year.

SHANE DOAN?

The Arizona Coyotes and Shane Doan are parting ways, meaning the veteran Jet/Coyote will have a new address (or retire) this fall. If you’re asking if he can still play, here’s the tale of the tape:

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.24 (5th among all forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 1.06 (two goals in 113 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 47.0 (best number among Arizona forwards)
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 3.2
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 39.2
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 1.5 (34 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 144 shots/4.2%
  • Boxcars: 74gp, 6-21-27
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

His rel possession numbers are good, that’s a nasty desert team lordy. The goals went away, he was shooting from Laredo and they were going in a year ago. I’m inclined to say he’s 40, probably time to sail on down the line. Suspect Doan gets at least a sliver of a chance somewhere and if we’re honest (and review the Chiarelli file) it is not beyond the realm of possibility.

JERSEY REVEAL

Today we get a look at the new Oilers jersey. Based on the teases it looks pleasing to me. Navy? Burnt orange? I’ll be fine with it as long as there is no weird piping and the neck isn’t some bizarre look.

AWARDS!

We’ll chat more about this tomorrow, but Connor McDavid will win the Art Ross, and is up for the Hart and the Lindsay. Todd McLellan and Peter Chiarelli are also up for awards. Little attention is being placed on these things, but I’m here to tell you it’s a big damned deal. How old were you in 1990? That’s the last time an Edmonton Oilers player won a major award. Folks, Moses wandered in the desert for 40 years, so he has the record. The Oilers, who wandered in the hinterland for 26, gave Moses a run for his money. Promised land straight ahead!

DRAFT NOTES

  • Based on Bob McKenzie’s list (remember, this is the consensus industry ranking so there is some connection between the BM list and what will be reality) the Oilers may have access to one or more quality forwards. McKenzie ranks Eeli Tolvanen No. 17, Kim Klostin No. 18, Ryan Poehling No. 19, Robert Thomas No. 21, Josh Norris No. 23, Kailer Yamamoto No. 24 and Isaac Ratcliffe No. 27. I can see Edmonton taking any one of these men at No. 22.

ALEXANDRE TEXIER

McKenzie’s top ranked player who does not appear on my list is Alexandre Texier. I had him on my Hinterlands list but not the final 150.

  • Steve KournianosA lightning quick French teen who plays significant minutes in the French senior league, Texier is a dynamic offensive talent who is mature and can handle playing against older competition. You have to go back to the late 1980’s and former St. Louis Blues prospect Philippe Bozon to find a teenager from the French league with this kind of NHL potential. Texier is an excellent skater who can handle the puck and make plays off the rush. Rarely does he look overmatched despite being the youngest player in the circuit. Source

SPENCER FOO

Looks like Detroit is also in the running, along with the Oilers, Philly, Calgary and the Golden Knights. I chuckle when reading online comments like “can’t believe they may make room for this college guy by moving Eberle” when the player himself has acknowledged time in the AHL is likely. Folks, signing Spencer Foo would be like adding another 2014 draft pick: A good idea, a long way to go. Seems the young man has a better idea about his skills than a lot of people who post online these days. Huh. Foo’s NHLE is 31 points (and he was 22 last season), if you slot him in with the other Oilers prospects:

It gives you some idea about where he might rank. I would suggest Jesse Puljujarvi and Anton Slepyshev are clearly ahead of him among RW prospects, and if you consider Drake Caggiula’s NHLE was 44 points in his final college season, the actual situation becomes clearer. A fine prospect, hope they sign him, but allow me to suggest that folks who are implying the Oilers plan to replace Eberle with Foo are framing the issue.

Brad does amazing work, make sure to click on the link and bookmark this page. I bet you refer to it many times over the next few days and weeks. This year’s list is fascinating.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Now that we’re back, time is tight so we’re bringing it this week! Scheduled to appear, TSN1260 beginning at 10 this morning:

  • Mark Edwards, HockeyProspect.com. The Black Book is out, my summer is officially booked! We’ll talk about the best players in this year’s draft.
  • Don Landry, CFL.ca. Rosters are final, some big surprises and areas of weakness that we suspect will need tweaking. Don will guide us through Week One previews.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. The Vegas Golden Knights have their talent pool, how good could they be?
  • Keegan Matheson, MLB.com. Keegan will explain Justin Smoak and the mlb draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes to go!

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Gross misconduct

JDI,

Wichita.

Gross misconduct

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Holy. When u look at the totality of the bad moves he made…head shaker. MACT ..HORRENDOUS GM, but a very good coach

Gross misconduct

Snowman,

Well said.

Gross misconduct

Tobias Reider would be a nice addition …agreed. But DAMMIT we had him once and traded him for Kale Kessey. Kale kessey !! A player who clings to a roster spot in the ECHL. And i think i read an article recently that he was playing in a loop called the South professional hockey league. Not a high profile trade but even still that has to go down as one of the worst trades the Oilers have ever made

anonymous

Sather stated if MacT was gone from the org. no Talbot

If true, this is an indictment of Mact, not something to be proud of. Seriously doubt it’s true.

Scungilli Slushy

Ducey: He sucks

Seriously. He is not physical, gets sat for motivational purposes, has dropped off in boxcars, can’t play defense and seems to be on his way out of the organization. He was 10th in CF% among NYI F’s last year. He only had 114 shots in 69 games. Eberle had 200+

You get all of Jordan Eberle’s warts without all that annoying scoring stuff.

He is closer to Yak than Eberle.

There had better be some extra ++ coming with him from NYI.

Maybe, but he does have the tools that Yak, Gagner don’t. Snow talked about having to play him at wing and that he’s a natural centre. He can skate, shoot, is said to have hockey IQ, isn’t small, he has a full tool belt.

He’s young, and a I think usage and playing on a messed up team put him back. Capuano as well. He fits needs perfectly, I’m sure PC knows him well. If he tops out at 3C it’s still good because his contract isn’t MacTavished. I would be very surprised if he didn’t grow on the Oilers.

Kinger_Oil.redux

krakman:
rickithebear,

1.Mact hired Eakins
2. Mact gave away Petry for free
3.Mact traded for and signed Nikitin
4. Offered a bigger contract to Clarkson than Toronto

Each one of these should of got him canned.

5. Threw DD under the bus
6. Got Fasth and Scrivens (neither in NHL) Jason LaBarbara: hahaha, and was it Bachman?
7. Andrew Ference (leadership qualities)
8. Keith f’ng Aulie, and Brad Hunt-for-D!
9. Anton Belov
10. Klinkhimmer: clunker

– There have been very few GM’s as under-qualified as MacT. Trading away Vezina goalies for guys no longer in the league is alone offensive.

– Name one GM who was the AHL coach of a not very good team that was promoted?

– And he sits there, and Chia has to play nice, so as not to rock the OBC.

– Thank the lord for Nicholson’s “forensic analysis”

– And Ricki, Sather giving a shout-out to his fired buddy about a trade: come on: Chia called Sather’s bluff, and didn’t give more, when it was clear Sather was holding out for such

Ducey

Scungilli Slushy:
If Stauffer hints are telling us something, I’m ok with Eberle for Strome and think it is a really smart trade. Would be likegetting Johansen a few years ago before he matured.He has work to do but is a centre, wants to be one, has a lot of skill, decent size, protects pucks, can shoot and playmaker. Worth the mild risk to have our Pavelski. He could play 3C and move up to Connor’s wing when Leon’s at C. Needs to be better on faceoffs but most young guys do.

He sucks 🙂

Seriously. He is not physical, gets sat for motivational purposes, has dropped off in boxcars, can’t play defense and seems to be on his way out of the organization. He was 10th in CF% among NYI F’s last year. He only had 114 shots in 69 games. Eberle had 200+

You get all of Jordan Eberle’s warts without all that annoying scoring stuff.

He is closer to Yak and Gagner when they were leaving the Oilers than Eberle.

There had better be some extra ++ coming with him from NYI.

Bruce McCurdy

JDI:
Whatever Connor’s new contract looks like, can they write a ‘no helicopters’ clause into it?

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/877256768048422917

Oilanderp:
Benson and Wells named to…

https://www.hockeycanada.ca/en-ca/Team-Canada/Men/Junior/2017-18/Camps/Roster-Development

Nice markers for 2 picks outside the first round.

Scungilli Slushy

Still need to groom another to replace Letestu at some point.

JD_Wry

krakman,

6: “I’m reasonably comfortable going into next season with Niki, Justin, Oskar and Fayne…”

Scungilli Slushy

If Stauffer hints are telling us something, I’m ok with Eberle for Strome and think it is a really smart trade. Would be like getting Johansen a few years ago before he matured. He has work to do but is a centre, wants to be one, has a lot of skill, decent size, protects pucks, can shoot and playmaker. Worth the mild risk to have our Pavelski. He could play 3C and move up to Connor’s wing when Leon’s at C. Needs to be better on faceoffs but most young guys do.

Ducey

Bruce McCurdy: Second last time Oilers had a #22 they used it on a RHC nym’d MAP.

Even with a bonus JFJ they were SOL.

Was trying to think of the last good player the Oilers took out of the QMJHL.

Had to look it up.

Ales Hemsky 2001

Bruce McCurdy

Diablo: Yeah – I’m really on board with taking Thomas at 22. RHC is a super rare commodity – we are always lamenting the absence of one … only way to get one is through the draft.

Second last time Oilers had a #22 they used it on a RHC nym’d MAP.

Even with a bonus JFJ they were SOL.

JD_Wry

krakman,

5. If you have to ask the question…

Oilander
Ducey

krakman:
rickithebear,

2. Mact gave away Petry for free

Actually a second (used as part of the Tallbot trade) and a fourth (used on Caleb Jones).

krakman

rickithebear,

1.Mact hired Eakins
2. Mact gave away Petry for free
3.Mact traded for and signed Nikitin
4. Offered a bigger contract to Clarkson than Toronto

Each one of these should of got him canned.

Pescador

JDI:
Pescador,

I thought you were suggesting MacT was one whiskey short of upping the contract offer.

MaCT: “Here’s my contract offer”
Clarkenstien: “perfect we should celebrate, got a shot of Whiskey?”
mcTavish: “Dang, all I got in my office is Malibu rum & the Schnappster”
Clarkebark: “I can’t accept that”
Kinda still works doesn’t it?
I might need help

godot10

Melman:
I wonder if the NHL had the foresight to see the control handed to Vegas by virtue of accepting 1 new expansion team vs. 2 at a time?The buzz would have been there anyway, but LVK has their hands on the wheel with no competition.

It may result in the team improving faster which is good for the franchise.Given the league’s track record though I’m not sure they thought McPhee would be in the position he is this year.

Vegas paid $500 million dollars. They should get something for it.

rickithebear

Bank shot:
1. MacT: drafted Nurse

2. Mact tradd a 2nd round pick (#37) for 5 picks.
one which was

3. MacT traded for Broisoit

4. All MacT could do was rave about Draisatl’s passing.

5. Sather stated MacT arranged the Talbot trade at deadline in 2015.
he completed the asset acquisition by trading Petry!
Sather stated if MacT was gone from the org. no Talbot

6. MacT won the Mcdavid lottery. (luck)

7. PC: said Benning and Caggulia were MacT and Bucky’s work.

XXX – Mcdavid (20) – Caggulia (23)
XXX – Draisatl (21) – Slepyshev (23)

Nurse (22) – Benning (23)

Talbot (30)
Broisoit (24)

--hudson--

N64: Bob McKenzie‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie1h1 hour ago
MoreVGK say they have six trades in place. If we’re speculating – emphasis on speculating – likely to be with ANA, CBJ, CHI, NYI, PIT, TB.

I’d guess those are the protection deals. Flip deals are separate and they could ALL be the NEXT day.

Yep that’s what it looks like to me as well. Chias best bet might be to hold off until pick 22 on Friday depending on who falls.

jtblack

Melman,

Makes it interesting. I hope they do it again with Seattle or Quebec. !

N64

JDI:

Poor Nail.

JD_Wry

N64: MacAthur Park

👍

JD_Wry

Whatever Connor’s new contract looks like, can they write a ‘no helicopters’ clause into it?

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/877256768048422917

JD_Wry

JDI: Messier was sent to Houston to learn how to tell time.

Ah, I guess he wasn’t sent down as far as the ECHL then.

N64

JDI: I’m remembering that Messier was sent to Houston to learn how to tell time. Was that before Wichita?

Wow – I just learned that Wichita Lineman wasn’t written by Glenn Campbell. There’s a Geno-level hockey pun in there somewhere.

Even better. A Jimmy Webb RE series. Could have used MacAthur Park any number of times 😉

All I Know
By the Time I Get to Phoenix
Clowns Exit Laughing
Feet In The Sunshine
Gone
Halfway in the Middle
I Can Do It on My Own
I Don’t Need You
I Think the Last One was the One
If This Was The Last Song
If You See Me Getting Smaller
I’ll Be Back
In My Wildest Dreams
In the Final Hours
Life is Hard
Lightning in a Bottle
Little Tin Soldier
Lost Generation
Love Years Coming
MacArthur Park
Moving On
Never Gonna Be the Same
Old Man at the Fair
Once Before I Die
One of the Kind
One of the Nicer Things
Our Time is Running Out
Please Don’t Turn The Lights Out”
Pocketful of Keys
Requiem
Slippin’ Away
Someone is Standing Outside
The Smartest Fool
The Worst That Could Happen
There Aint No Doubt
To Make It Easier on You
Up, Up and Away
Which Way to Nowhere
Wichita Lineman
You’ll Be Back, I Know It
You’re So Young

Melman

I wonder if the NHL had the foresight to see the control handed to Vegas by virtue of accepting 1 new expansion team vs. 2 at a time? The buzz would have been there anyway, but LVK has their hands on the wheel with no competition.

It may result in the team improving faster which is good for the franchise. Given the league’s track record though I’m not sure they thought McPhee would be in the position he is this year.

JD_Wry

John Chambers: farm club when the 80’s dynasty began.

I’m remembering that Messier was sent to Houston to learn how to tell time. Was that before Wichita?

Wow – I just learned that Wichita Lineman wasn’t written by Glenn Campbell. There’s a Geno-level hockey pun in there somewhere.

John Chambers

TO10801:
Oilers have named Wichita Thunder as their ECHL affiliate. That is good news considering its a good place to get first year pros more icetime than they would get in the AHL.

Going back to Wichita!

It’s a special city in terms of Oiler lore as they were our farm club when the 80’s dynasty began.

JD_Wry

Pescador,

I thought you were suggesting MacT was one whiskey short of upping the contract offer. 😉

Pescador

Psyche:
Pescador,

He’s in the range based on rankings. I think the coach in me appreciates him more than the scout in me. The scout in me would trade up for Rasmussen. Barring injury, his skill set is more certain to transfer to the NHL level.

Thomas needs to be in the right developmental and environmental situations in the AHL for a year (after one more year in junior).

The fan in me wants the Oilers to trade the pick for D,
Maybe Ducey is right,
What if I consider myself a Superfan?

Pescador

JDI: Didn’t Clarkson turn down a bigger offer from the Oilers to sign with TO?

Sounds about right,
I was inferring Clarkson wanted more whiskey not money

N64

TO10801: Wichita Thunder

Waiting for the Glen Campbell RE series 😉

JD_Wry

Pink Socks: That was the rumour.

Yeah – wow, 3 more years left on that contract.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Please just fast-forward untill the Oil start making some moves: Becasuse nothing has happened:

– Probably/Hopefully last time to post this: winner gets a PayPal Lowetide contribution:

1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?:
2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft?
3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who)
4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)
5) Who is our back-up G on game 1?
6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer)
7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract?
8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract?
9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1?
10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?:
11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1?
12) How many roster trades does Chia make?

Please answer in following format:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

TO10801

Oilers have named Wichita Thunder as their ECHL affiliate. That is good news considering its a good place to get first year pros more icetime than they would get in the AHL.

Bank Shot

Oilers8833:
Bank Shot,

He did draft Draisaitl and Klefbom I believe……MacT seemed to be smart when it came to evaluating talent outside of the NHL. He was a total shit show evaluating NHL level defencemen.

Mact didn’t draft Klefbom. Klefbom was drafted during that brief period MacT when wasn’t working with the Oilers in any official capacity.

He drafted Draisaitl, but it was basicallt 50/50 between him and Bennett. Not sure I’d give him that much credit. He then proceeded to ram Draisaitl directly into the NHL as a second line center when it was abundantly clear he wasn’t ready.

Pink Socks

JDI,

That was the rumour. If I remember correctly MacT offered more money at 5 years which is why Nonis had to go 7 years, but Clarkson took the home town discount (thanks David) and signed for the longer term.

N64

–hudson–: Another tweet says VGK has six trades completed.

Bob McKenzie‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie 1h1 hour ago
More
VGK say they have six trades in place. If we’re speculating – emphasis on speculating – likely to be with ANA, CBJ, CHI, NYI, PIT, TB.

I’d guess those are the protection deals. Flip deals are separate and they could ALL be the NEXT day.

JD_Wry

Pescador: Fixed

Didn’t Clarkson turn down a bigger offer from the Oilers to sign with TO?

Snowman

slopitch: Not only did Eberle not produce, he was a turn over machine in the playoffs. It seemed like Kesler could fake slash Ebs and he’d buckle and turn the puck over. Will he be better in the playoffs next year? You tell me. The team had 103 pts last year. Season points don’t matter anymore. We are onto bigger and better things. Can that include Eberle? I think it can. But Id be shopping him as well.

Only one problem with this….

Kesler played against Mcdavid…Eberle didn’t play with Mcdavid… Hard for Kesler to fake slash a guy he was rarely on the ice against…

Shopping Eberle to fill a need is one thing… tradiing him for cap space that you don’t need yet is a failure to properly evaluate your assets. If you don’t need the cap space, you don’t need the cap space.

Season points do matter. They matter a whole hell of a lot. Ask the Oilers 2007-2016. Eberle helps you get those 103 points.

Cap space doesn’t.

Next season is the Oilers best chance to win a cup. Plain and simple. You can’t afford to get worse. You can’t afford to stay the same. Trading for cap space, I’m afraid, is at best staying the same and more likely getting worse.

If Chia blows this summer by not getting better and also loses a trade piece for less than full value… its gonna hurt.

--hudson--

More McPhee…

Renaud Lavoie @renlavoietva

He confirmed that some of the picks that are going to be announced are going to be traded the next day.
https://twitter.com/renlavoietva/status/877214860370747393

Diablo

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Shane Doan, Alberta Boy is a RHC: I’d bet a lot Chia would sign him 1 yr @ Hendy’s salary…

Doan is not and has never been a centre – he’s a RW.

slopitch

Bruce McCurdy: Agreed, the feeling was Eberle had snapped out of it just in time for the playoffs but that never did happen.Which is different from saying “Eberle isn’t a playoff performer and never will be” but that’s the direction some have taken it.

You mention the fan base but there is also an MSM cabal on the “Eberle’s gotta go” train that includes quite a few of the regulars, without my needing to name names. Questioning his grit, his practice habits, his manhood, etc. Some of that stuff is surely driving some of the fan reaction.

Not only did Eberle not produce, he was a turn over machine in the playoffs. It seemed like Kesler could fake slash Ebs and he’d buckle and turn the puck over. Will he be better in the playoffs next year? You tell me. The team had 103 pts last year. Season points don’t matter anymore. We are onto bigger and better things. Can that include Eberle? I think it can. But Id be shopping him as well.

jtblack

Psyche,

He is definitely a player they have their eye on .. i just was curious why the comparison … but Ebs was a #22 and has done well ..maybe Thomas can do the same ..

cheers

Psyche

Pescador,

He’s in the range based on rankings. I think the coach in me appreciates him more than the scout in me. The scout in me would trade up for Rasmussen. Barring injury, his skill set is more certain to transfer to the NHL level.

Thomas needs to be in the right developmental and environmental situations in the AHL for a year (after one more year in junior).

Psyche

jtblack,

Sorry, my reflection is simply based on watching a highlight reel. I haven’t looked at numbers. I’m a huge fan of statistics and analytics, but everyone now and then it’s nice to just go by my eye. Eberle scored and shot often with the Pats. I watched him play a bit back then. Thomas feeds Miletic often, and Pu as well. He displays some great vision on the ice – that’s an invaluable skill as a 17 yr old.

Junior numbers give us a lot of information, but there are many players who outperform their Junior stats (and many who underperform based on their Junior stats).