SAIL ON, REGINA PATRICIA

by Lowetide

Honestly, I thought he’d be the one to stay. Jordan Eberle can score goals and that has high value. Everything changed the moment Connor McDavid arrived and more than anything the salary cap forced this trade. We can argue about the timing (could have happened at any time over the next 12 months) but one of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Jordan Eberle (and maybe both) were heading out of Edmonton.

OILERS ALL-TIME GOAL SCORERS

  1. Wayne Gretzky (583)
  2. Jari Kurri (474)
  3. Glenn Anderson (417)
  4. Mark Messier (392)
  5. Ryan Smyth (296)
  6. Paul Coffey (209)
  7. Craig Simpson (185)
  8. Esa Tikkanen (178)
  9. Jordan Eberle (165)
  10. Shawn Horcoff (162)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the current active leader in goals (95). Bob McKenzie had him No. 33 overall in 2008:

  • Bob McKenzie: A somewhat under-sized centre, Eberle is considered one of the smartest offensive players in the draft. He is a better goal-scorer than a playmaker and is an elusive talent when he has the puck. There are some questions about his speed, but he does have quickness, especially in tight situations and one-on-ones.

I wrote about Eberle in August of 2009, using the question-answer format. He was a year away from becoming an NHL player and I think it stands up as a good description of what we were about to see.

  • How did they get him? 1st rd pick in 2008, a selection that looks very good at this point in time. Although forwards taken right after him (Nemisz, Ennis) are progressing well Eberle had a solid junior season, became a national calibre hero at the WJ`s and then topped it off with a splendid AHL stint.
  • What is his style? Offensive winger, shooter and a good puck handler and passer. Eberle lists Martin St. Louis as his favorite player because they play similar styles. That would be nice. I can`t find his WHL shots-on-goal totals which is maddening. Very smart, lightning hands. He could be an exceptional scorer. He scored 105 goals in 197 WHL games and that`s a good league, and he put up a point-per-game in a late season AHL audition.
  • What are his negatives? Size and his foot speed isn`t blazing. On a team filled with trolls, this is a factor moving forward. Edmonton is going to need a trade for someone like Drew Stafford in the next year or so, but we`ve been saying that for three years now. Anyway, Eberle isn`t that guy, he`s another undersized skill winger.
  • Why wasn’t he more dominant in junior? Well he did play well, but the team sucked wind after the new year. They were really terrible, and we can point the finger at Eberle a little but his splits weren’t awful or anything. In his first 30 games, Eberle went 20-19-39 +1 and in the final 31 games he went 15-20-35 -5. He led his team in goals and points. The one poor stretch was the final 20 games (he went 9-12-21) when his +/- was a horrendous -9.
  • Was he really that good in Springfield? Jonathan Willis is doing some amazing stuff on his various sites and yesterday posted a timely item on the Falcons. It shows Eberle was facing subpar opposition so we need to view his performance in that light. However, it’s also true he was posting some good numbers in a pro league at age 18.
  • Where does he fit on the depth chart? Way down. If we assume he’s a RW, then there’s one job to win: 2line right-winger. The depth chart (at a guess) is Hemsky, Nilsson, Pisani, Stortini, Ryan Stone (or Liam Reddox). Since he can’t play in the AHL there’s no need to list that bunch, so clearly Eberle needs to bump Nilsson (and the others who might end up being 2line RW) in order to make the big team.
  • Is that possible? These are the Edmonton Oilers, anything is possible.
  • Is it probable? No. The most likely plan (if the Oilers are indeed interested in getting to the post-season) is to add a veteran forward and to hold back the water on all forward prospects. The prudent move is to send Jordan Eberle back to the Queen City to score 50 goals and score more famous junior goals.
  • What does the organization think of him? They love him. There’s an article every 10 minutes on oilers.com and that World Junior goal makes him pure Canadiana.
  • How will we know if they’re seriously thinking about him as an NHL option? Kevin Lowe, Kevin Prendergast or Steve Tambellini will say something like “when Pat first asked about keeping him I thought he was joking, but with the way he’s performed in the last two pre-season games I don’t know that we can send him back!”

Sail on, Jordan Eberle. You waited so long for a playoff run and got just the one. We wish you the best in Brooklyn and will remember your skill and talent.

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FUHR31

97 is great…. and oil fans we love our players. However I don’t think we should sell our GM short. Every GM makes mistakes, people think Stan Bowman is great…he has made some terrible trades and signings to the eye but has 3 cups. Chia has made some questionable moves for sure but this team is trending in the right direction. The culture change has happened and its cup or bust now. Always loved Ebs but the cap is important, Strome is one of Connor’s boys and is gonna do well here I believe. As for Russell I sure hope not but mabey his value to the team comes from his locker room presence as much as on ice ???? we wait

Ice Sage

I’ll miss Jordan Eberle, but he went out with a whimper.
This spring was supposed to be the time for ‘Mr. Clutch’… but something’s been lost – hope he finds it again, although I’m sure he’ll score against the Oilers this year!

That being said, good trade.

godot10

Richard S.S.:

Todd McLellan is a much better Coach than anyone the Islanders have had.

Aren’t you forgetting somebody?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq-gYOrU8bA

dessert1111

There goes my favourite player since he arrived. Right around the time I got back into the team after a hiatus since the Smythe trade. Not gonna lie, this is a tough one to take. Obviously not impressed with the return either.

Hope he gets his release back. I’ve had a soft spot for the Islanders for awhile so at least it’s a palpable team. Allows me to become more detached from the Oilers, anyway, which is probably a good thing overall. Just wish they would’ve traded him 5 years ago so I could’ve begun that detachment process when the team was trash.

Maybe I can order a cheap Ebs jersey to cheer me up.

who

McSorley33:
Bag of Pucks,

Would LV have picked Davidson over GR?

No but then we would still have Davidson

dustrock

Doug McLachlan:
Bruce McCurdy,

Exactly.

The Eberle to Strome savings add to Drai’s AVV to create the new Drai contract of around $7M.

Russell moving to $4 and Kassian’s resigning eat up the cap escalation from $73M to $75M.

We still need a replacement for Sekera but with LTIR and some smart accounting can make this work, I would think.

Some of us would hope to aim higher than Russell.

Sometimes it’s like people think there aren’t any other options out there, certainly not Las Vegas with their 7 jillion LHD.

Doug McLachlan

Bruce McCurdy,

Exactly.

The Eberle to Strome savings add to Drai’s AVV to create the new Drai contract of around $7M.

Russell moving to $4 and Kassian’s resigning eat up the cap escalation from $73M to $75M.

We still need a replacement for Sekera but with LTIR and some smart accounting can make this work, I would think.

DevilsLettuce

This trade is fine, with Strome being a family friend of the Mcdavids who’s going to say no?

Something happened to Ebs release, if it’s long term, or he only has 10g by all star break, his return value would be Mark Fayne. Wait. Shit!

Professor Q

Bag of Pucks: Don’t know that there’s anyway to avoid the massive deal. When you put yourself in the conversation with Gretzky and Crosby as the third youngest to win the Hart, you have to anticipate your agent asking for the veritable ‘back up the Brinks truck.’

Connor gonna’ get paid!

With the cap not rising by much and McDavid’s comments last night, I really don’t think he’s gping for $14 million AAV.

Maybe quite a bit higher than the supposed $9.7 million AAV, but closer to that than to $14.

McSorley33

I am not saying Davy was top 4….but is there anyone else that thinks we could use him in a pinch this upcoming year?

We need some low cost guys….

McSorley33

Bag of Pucks,

Would LV have picked Davidson over GR?

Bag of Pucks

Here’s the thing. Chiarelli’s predecessors would not move out one dimensional players to balance the roster. They were constantly stuck in wishful thinking mode hoping flawed players would improve until they eventually sold them for pennies on the dollar (Gagner, Penner, Petry, etc). And the end result was an unbalanced roster and a decade of losing.

Chiarelli asks himself a simple question, ‘Can i win the Cup with this guy slotted in the roster where he is now?’ and if the answer to that question is ‘no,’ then he cuts bait (even if that means taking a hit on the asset value).

Like last year, I really think we do this GM a disservice looking at his moves in isolation. You have to appraise the overall body of work.

With Eberle, I can’t fault his conclusion. Ebs to me is not a Top 6 Forward on a Cup winner, not with the 200ft pressure way the game is evolving.

In terms of pure asset value, Strome is a younger #5 OV on a better contract vs. an older #22 OV two years removed from FA. So, there is still the possibility that Strome could elevate to cover the bet, and you’ve got all that additional money to spend on another player which has to be included in the overall body of work.

Even Reinhart is defensible from an asset mgmt. pov given Cullen’s %’s on the value of a #4OV vs. a #16 and #33. And that fact gets ignored by yesterday’s critics (i.e. the Golden Knights have to perceive value in the player to claim him in the first place). It would actually be more logical to criticize the trade if the Knights hadn’t claimed him, because then you traded two picks for a player that even an expansion team doesn’t want.

Reading comments like Chiarelli traded Barzal for nothing is just so offbase imo. First, you don’t know who the Oilers would’ve picked and you can’t cherry pick the remainder of the draft. What Chiarelli traded was two middling lottery tickets for what is historically a guaranteed winner.

McSorley33

frjohnk,

I would decline…but as others have mentioned…what are the options?

What about you?

Diablo

So Carolina picks up RHD TVR… are they preparing to move Faulk?

Professor Q

And hey, who knows?

Maybe McDavid will love playing with a Strome again.

Just need their DeBrincat in Yamamoto…

Bag of Pucks

LMHF#1: Really committed to not winning anything are they?

Wow.

Don’t know that there’s anyway to avoid the massive deal. When you put yourself in the conversation with Gretzky and Crosby as the third youngest to win the Hart, you have to anticipate your agent asking for the veritable ‘back up the Brinks truck.’

Connor gonna’ get paid!

Genjutsu

Bruce McCurdy:
Congrats to Cassandra for the obvious success building the time machine. You should patent that thing!

Hey Bruce if you don’t start believing she’s gonna get a complex!

Alpine

I dont ‘hate’ the trade. But it’s the type of deal that could have been made next summer when it would actually be imperative to move Eberle for cap reasons. They don’t really need the cap space today. Strome will probably be useful, and potentially good. But Eberle is already good. There’s a lot more Stromes in the league than there are Eberles.

The disturbing trend is the Oilers AGAIN moving out a good player for less than stellar value because of the player’s perceived (and possibly real) flaws. An persistent problem with the Oilers is that they seem to be completely arbitrary when it comes to deciding who is and who isn’t a core player.

They will first look for the flaws in a decided non-core player, instead of actually determining what the player’s value is and setting it against the average to figure out how good said player is. They seem to have things in mind that they want from a player and devalue the player if he doesn’t meet the criteria.

Were all of Petry, Hall, Schultz, Eberle (and whoever else you want to include) all uniquely flawed players that the Oilers were so unlucky to end up with in their quest to build a respectable team? Or was the team itself not prioritizing the right things when they decided they needed to move the players instead of continuing to develop them?

I’m starting to think things will never truly change with this hockey club. They always seem to end up with management who twists themselves into believing that they have to move out good, but imperfect players so that they can replace them with other flawed players (Lucic, Russell potentially) that just happen to meet their criteria. For some reason I don’t trust that a team that needed a superstar to get back into the playoff picture after so long really has the right criteria for selecting players.

frjohnk

Ha!, just caught what LT wrote in the summer of 2009.

“The prudent move is to send Jordan Eberle back to the Queen City to score 50 goals and score more famous junior goals.”

So EBERLE went and scored 50 goals with the Pats and then in the WJC gold medal game scored 2 goals in the last few minutes to send it to OT.

LT called that right on the button.

McSorley33

Bruce McCurdy,

Chiarelli now 50 minutes late for his media avail. I’m prepared to cut him a break here, cuz no doubt perfectting the language on Russell’s NMC and buyout-proof bonus structure take time.
/gallows humour
***************************************************************************
That was good…well done.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– I’m sure he will get $14MM: $10MM of salary, and “Rexall Consulting Inc” $4MM sent to Cayman’s

dangilitis

Ha

McDavid is entitled to whatever he wants. However, if he was serious when he said he would trade all 3 trophies for a Stanley Cup, he should probably realize he’ll need to leave a little money on the table as well. He’s going to make at least 200 million salary over his career and this will skyrocket when factoring in endorsements. 14 mil per season is pretty much pricing your team out of Cup caliber adds.

Android

Bruce McCurdy:
Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

As crippling (and frightening) as a $14 Million contract sounds, I think this is definitely something that should be taken with a nice heap of salt. It’s one guy, citing “whispers”.

If there’s one thing being a soccer fan for years has taught me, it’s that singular rumors (especially on social media) are pretty well worthless.

I remember a few weeks ago we were hearing he was going to take a hometown discount. It doesn’t make sense for anyone who wants to win to demand that kind of contract in a salary capped world.

Here’s a good take on it from Bob McKenzie: (the relevant portion starts at 9:23)

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/montreal-690/mckenzie-do-you-want-stanley-cups-or-money-1.754076

Munny

Bruce McCurdy:
Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

The Eastern newsfolk continuin to shower us with their sweet favours. Like they did on Hall and Ebs’ trade values.

jm363561

frjohnk:
Loved EBERLE as an Oiler.He was thrown into the deep end right off the bat and while he had his warts he was one of the few Oilers that a person could cheer for during the dark ages.Never heard anything negative about him.Scored probably one of the best 1st goals ever.
Wish him all the best.

And because my phone has a mind of its own, the player EBERLE was traded for is autocorrected to Stroke?

Now EBERLE has gone maybe we should all set our AutoCorrect to STROME.

Over time I became increasingly disappointed with Ebs and in the Anaheim series he was invisible. My biggest fear is Strome is the next Desharnais. (Man, that was a weird trade, made worse by the injury to Sekera).

Munny

Today the Oilers sold my favourite Oiler. I never thought he was the best player evah; he was simply the Oiler that wormed his way deepest into my heart. It is with some sadness that I bid farewell.

What did Chia do with this cherished asset?

Primarily he bought years of age, RFA status over UFA, and $3.5M in cap space for the next year (and likely a smaller but not insignificant number thereafter).

Secondarily, he bought a different skillset. Ebs is better in tight, on the odd-man rush, better stickhandler, Strome is better on the boards, shot from distance, has a one-timer. Ebs has been the better point producer over his career, but he’s had the better rides, is overpaid, and this ain’t about the past.

In the room, trading a known quantity and likeable guy like Ebs is always a risk. In this case the risk is negated by trading for a known friend of CMD, our Commander. This loyalty might be handy for Strome’s next contract.

Doubt there were many other young RH shot options from teams with enough cap space available for Chia. And this is certainly better than Spector’s tomfool lose-him-for-nothing-at-the-XD. In fact, NYI paid a lot at the XD to create the space to buy Eberle to keep Tavares happy enough to sign an extension with again the space to do so.

And at our end, this is about having the space to keep our two stallions prancing in Oil silks.

And as much as I loved Eberle, you couldn’t pry their reins from my cold, dead hands. Saddle up.

N64

Bruce McCurdy:
Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

He’ll settle for 12.125 per. That’s just a warning shot not to spend the discount on a 5 year deal for Rustle.

krakman

frjohnk: If that is the case, Lucic better get allergic to his equipment a lot sooner.

Signing Lucic is still the worst move Chiarelli has made since he came to the Oilers, he’s building quite the resume.

striatic

Bruce McCurdy:
Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

While I get that McDavid has to be the highest paid player in the league, and that his contract has to future proof that for some while into the future, I’m not sure you can build a Stanley Cup winning team when you have 14 million tied up in one player, whoever that player may be.

Guess we’ll find out!

frjohnk

Bruce McCurdy:
Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

If that is the case, Lucic better get allergic to his equipment a lot sooner.

McNuge93

Is there an overpaid D that Vegas just picked up that the Oilers could trade Pouliot + sweetener for?

Professor Q

Bruce McCurdy:
Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

Holy heck. I don’t like the sound of that (even if people want him no matter what).

No room to sign anyone else.

LMHF#1

Bruce McCurdy:
Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

Really committed to not winning anything are they?

Wow.

Snowman

Bruce McCurdy:
Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

Ha well, that’s… a lot.

Lordy.

Cassandra

What value do you really think cap space has?

Van Riemsdyk was just traded for a second round pick. Is he worse than Russell? Russell is only good if you think that defense have the ability to influence save percentage, which he has no pattern of being able to do.

The Oilers only need cap space because they keep using it on the wrong players. Lucic, last year, Russell, this year. It’s a convenient circle of justification. Yes, I know we lose on the player side of the equation but we get the cap space, which we only need because we keep signing bad players.

Eberle + Van Riemsdyk is better than Strome + Russell.

Note, Strome had 13 goals lasts year in what was a bounce back year, more than a 50% improvement on the 8 the year before.

To listen to Oiler fans justify the trade they might as well be saying, “Great trade. Who did we get?”

Strome isn’t any of the things Oiler fans think he is.

He isn’t a center.
He doesn’t have a track record as a defensive player.
He isn’t tough.

He might be able to score. He’s the kind of guy I wish the Oilers would take flyers on more often. But the cost shouldn’t be a good player. The cost should be a second round pick when the other team tires of him, a la Maroon.

Bruce McCurdy

Chris Nichols‏ @NicholsOnHockey

Dreger: “There are whispers that it’s going to be $14 million for Connor McDavid.” #Oilers

Visually better

Dreger saying there are whispers mcdavid will come in at 14 m per year. Lol what a time to be alive. Mcdavid and Kris Russell vs. The world

Diablo

GMB3: You don’t go on your phone on the shitter? That’s when I get to read lowetide at work.

Doesn’t everyone LOL!

I’m far worse … I set my phone down all over the hospital I work at, especially in the ER. I have yet to be colonized with a drug-resistant bacteria (though its probably just a matter of time).

Snowman

Is anyone else getting a terrible feeling about how much the Mcdavid and Drai contracts are gonna cost?

How much is too much for McDavid? Leon?

What if they’re coming in at 14M and 8M or something like that?

Could it be more? I’ve just started to get this bad feeling about those deals…

Extend Russell

Yup .
Agree with most people. Russell is fine . 4x4m is not. Hands are a bit tied with the injury to Rej though.
I’d like to see Russell paired with Osterle next year for a bit. I think those 2 would complement each other well .

GMB3

Ducey: You may want to disinfect your phone, too.

You don’t go on your phone on the shitter? That’s when I get to read lowetide at work.

Scungilli Slushy

dustrock:
I’m much more worried about a multi-year Russell deal.

Wouldn’t making the move for Schlemko have been superior?2 years?I dunno.

I’d like to see Strome’s numbers WOWY Doug Weight as head coach.I do think some of the struggles were with NYI being a dysfunctional franchise, just like players like Yakupov and Schultz struggled here.

I think Strome will be better here than on the Isles.Still don’t like the trade, but again, the fear about Russell is much more real for me.Can we not aim higher?

Schultz and Yak still have big holes in their game, Strome doesn’t, so I think he’s a good bet to get better.

Schultz is getting points but his game isn’t much changed. I see him looking better for playing behind 2 world class centres, a lot.

Schlemko isn’t as good as Russell. Third pairing type. Nobody seems to want to keep him either, new team every year.

Bruce McCurdy

frjohnk:
Loved EBERLE as an Oiler.He was thrown into the deep end right off the bat and while he had his warts he was one of the few Oilers that a person could cheer for during the dark ages.Never heard anything negative about him.Scored probably one of the best 1st goals ever.
Wish him all the best.

And because my phone has a mind of its own, the player EBERLE was traded for is autocorrected to Stroke.

I think Stroke has some upside ( he scored 50 points as a 21 yearold), he was drafted as a skilled center, so he may come into camp this next year ready to take the next step.Heres hoping.

Stroke Of Genius …brilliant, that’s why it’s called a “smart phone”! Or were you / it thinking of the alternate definition of “stroke”?

Southern Oil

frjohnk:
How about Russell 4 years 18M with a partial NMC?

Just saw that on Twitter as well. Who is Joshua Marshall @JMarshyBosco93? Although he reports full NMC.

Material Elvis

Munny: Well… he is talking to a hung jury.

My name isn’t Jury…..

Material Elvis

Bruce McCurdy:
Congrats to Cassandra for the obvious success building the time machine. You should patent that thing!

And add a hot tub!

Bag of Pucks

After Katz bought the team and launched the rebuild with ‘Oil Change’ as the official document of the allegedly inevitable ascent to the mountaintop, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle & Magnus Paajarvi were sold as the new saviours (i.e. Core 1.0).

With this trade, Core 1.0 is now officially dead. Long live Core 3.2!

frjohnk

How about Russell 4 years 18M with a partial NMC?

dustrock

I’m much more worried about a multi-year Russell deal.

Wouldn’t making the move for Schlemko have been superior? 2 years? I dunno.

I’d like to see Strome’s numbers WOWY Doug Weight as head coach. I do think some of the struggles were with NYI being a dysfunctional franchise, just like players like Yakupov and Schultz struggled here.

I think Strome will be better here than on the Isles. Still don’t like the trade, but again, the fear about Russell is much more real for me. Can we not aim higher?

Revolved

Strome 6’1 196lbs
Eberle 5’11 183lbs

Hits/60 16-17 Sportingcharts.com
S 3.52 (Letestu 3.8)
E 1.14

Shots/60
S 6.62
E 7.83

P/60
S 1.44
E 1.8

RelGF% 15-17
S 5.15
E -4.79

RelExpectedGF% 15-17 Xtrahockeystats.com
S 0.99
E 3.17