OILERS AT 208: PHIL KEMP

US National Development Team, loaded program. I had him at No. 45 on my USA list

  1. RD Phil Kemp, USNDTP (USHL). Rangy blue with talent, didn’t put it together this year. Source
  • SB Nation: Kemp is a pure defensive defenseman that is better when he doesn’t try to do too much. He had a really ugly game against Minnesota, but rebounded with a quiet, solid performance against UMD. He’s a potential late-round draft choice. Source

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133 Responses to "OILERS AT 208: PHIL KEMP"

  1. doritogrande says:

    Committed to Yale next year. US NTDP team captain last year. Can never go wrong taking a blueliner from the NTDP.

  2. hodgkins says:

    Favorite pump up song is “You Make My Dreams Come True” by Hall & Oates. Old soul.

    http://www.usahockeyntdp.com/news_article/show/780182?referrer_id=654408

  3. Diablo says:

    Its far too early to know anything, but I love the approach the Oilers took with this draft.

  4. Munny says:

    Not bad for a distant bell. Obviously checks off all the character boxes and has a big brain. Whatever he turns out to be, he’s not going to hurt your prospects in the room.

  5. godot10 says:

    I like the draft. Hate the Russell signing. Hate the big whiff and miss on Hamonic, unless Faulk is coming.

  6. DBO says:

    So if we signed Foo, traded JP for Faulk. Would we be happy? Sad? Angry? Balanced???

    Add in a one year deal for get RW like Vrbata. Are we Better? More Balanced?

    I will say our prospect skill cupboard just got re stocked.

  7. Woogie63 says:

    DBO:
    So if we signed Foo, traded JP for Faulk. Would we be happy? Sad? Angry? Balanced???

    Add in a one year deal for get RW like Vrbata.Are we Better? More Balanced?

    I will say our prospect skill cupboard just got re stocked.

    Not sure Foo is going to be a bunch of help next year, He needs some AHL time. I think a trade with VGK for a man costs less than JP.

  8. Strapping Jocks says:

    Are there good 2C or 3C free agents out there for Chia to sign?

  9. Professor Q says:

    godot10:
    I like the draft. Hate the Russell signing.Hate the big whiff and miss on Hamonic, unless Faulk is coming.

    Maybe entice Carolina with another Skinner?

  10. Professor Q says:

    DBO:
    So if we signed Foo, traded JP for Faulk. Would we be happy? Sad? Angry? Balanced???

    Add in a one year deal for get RW like Vrbata.Are we Better? More Balanced?

    I will say our prospect skill cupboard just got re stocked.

    I really don’t want to trade Puljujärvi. Call me naïve if you will but I think we need our forward prospects.

  11. russ99 says:

    Getting our forward group restocked in this year’s draft and college FA signings hopefully culminating in Foo’s signing, will mean more for our window than any trade we could have made this week for this season.

    Let see what the next week brings, I’m thinking Pouliot will be bought out, since we couldn’t get Vegas to bite and could even dump him for a low pick.

    Hopefully we can resign Kassian ar a discount and lock up the two franchise players before 7/1.

    In free agency we need a bottom six center, a low risk pro RW in mid FA and another defensemen, one who can skate, pass, defend and check ar a decent level to pair with Nurse.

  12. eidy says:

    Phil kemp was ranked 109 by redline.

    Other redline picks samorukov 93, Savin 88, Skinner 80, maksimov 149, and Yamamoto 22

  13. hodgkins says:

    I’m a huge fan of this draft, full well knowing that none of these guys might pan out.

    But man, some of them may hit big time.

    Where’s that Velvet Kenny Rogers? Maybe today was Velvet Chia.

  14. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10:
    I like the draft. Hate the Russell signing.Hate the big whiff and miss on Hamonic, unless Faulk is coming.

    I’m not as in love with Hamonic as woodguy is, though it’s pretty disconcerting that Calgary’s getting better while Edmonton’s happy downgrading last year’s roster.

    Demers supposedly on the block and they sign Russell 4×4. There’s no room on D now to improve, unless they deal Nurse which will never happen.

    Need JP more than ever in my mind with no Eberle

  15. haters says:

    I know playoffs are a small sample size. That said.

    Kris Russell 0g 4a +2
    Jordan Eberle 0g 2a -6 !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Conversely
    Sam Gagner 5gp 0g 2a -3

    What the box cars tell us quite plainly is that we would have been better off scratching Ebs for both series. So when we got Strome for him it was more of a problem player for ploblem player swap than anything. We weren’t getting Hamonic for ebs. This might shock some of you but Hamonic is inferior to Russell defensively. Even strength points against per 60 clearly shows this.

    I know remembering what you had for lunch yesterday is hard but think back to the playoffs and tell me that Russell wasn’t playing unreal.
    Cheers

  16. russ99 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I’m not as in love with Hamonic as woodguy is, though it’s pretty disconcerting that Calgary’s getting better while Edmonton’s happy downgrading last year’s roster.

    Demers supposedly on the block and they sign Russell 4×4. There’s no room on D now to improve, unless they deal Nurse which will never happen.

    Need JP more than ever in my mind with no Eberle

    How are we downgrading last year’s roster? Got Russell back who played a ton of second pair minutes, and dumped Eberle who was a disappointment all year, and whom disappeared in the playoffs.

    If anything we’re still the same and haven’t improved yet, but this was a team a pad grab from the Conference Finals.

  17. LadiesloveSmid says:

    russ99: How are we downgrading last year’s roster? Got Russell back who played a ton of second pair minutes, and dumped Eberle who was a disappointment all year, and whom disappeared in the playoffs.

    If anything we’re still the same and haven’t improved yet, but this was a team a pad grab from the Conference Finals.

    They dumped their typically 65P winger, who just put up 51P for a guy who averages 40P per season who just put up 30P.

    By no measure other than blocked shots is Russell a top 4 defenceman, another year older they have him locked up for more money.

    The roster is worse than last season where Talbot, McDavid, and Klefbom went supernova. If we’re good to bank on more career seasons and near perfect health then maybe just maybe they’ll make the playoffs

  18. gogliano says:

    LadiesloveSmid: They dumped their typically 65P winger, who just put up 51P for a guy who averages 40P per season who just put up 30P.

    By no measure other than blocked shots is Russell a top 4 defenceman, another year older they have him locked up for more money.

    The roster is worse than last season where Talbot, McDavid, and Klefbom went supernova. If we’re good to bank on more career seasons and near perfect health then maybe just maybe they’ll make the playoffs

    Yeah I’m banking on McDavid to regress to a median NHL player.

  19. fifthcartel says:

    I’m terribly disappointed.

    Downgrading from Jordan Eberle to Strome and signing one of the worst top-four defensemen (he’s a bottom pairing) guy for 4m x 4 years while Travis Hamonic was available is just awful.

    Zero confidence that Chiarelli can build a championship team around Connor McDavid.

  20. ashley says:

    Maybe Chia didn’t want Hamonic. He did have a bad year.

    Or maybe he did and if you are NYI and getting offers of 1st rounder and two seconds from CGY and EDM, which package would you take?

    The most valuable item is the 1st rounder which might end up as low as 27-31 for EDM (and probably not higher than 24), or could be 8-18 for CGY with a small chance of the pick being in the top 8. That’s a big difference given the precipitous drop in likelihood of drafting a useful NHL player from early to late first round.

  21. russ99 says:

    Enough of this nonsense. I’m going to stop thinking about hockey and enjoy the summer.

    Just because the Oilers don’t conform to your preferences as to how to build a hockey team doesn’t mean that come September we all of a sudden morph from a 100 point team into garbage.

  22. highgloveside says:

    godot10,

    Do you actually think a 1st and two 2nds are worth the upgrade from Russel to Hamonic? Russel was free, that is a lot to give up more for a marginally better player.

  23. treevojo says:

    highgloveside:
    godot10,

    Do you actually think a 1stand two 2nds are worth the upgrade from Russel to Hamonic?Russel was free, that is a lot to give up more for a marginally better player.

    I said this earlier.

    To me it’s not even debatable.

    This team is going to need young players in the pipeline to sustain this thing for a decade.

    Pretty thankful some of the armchair gms aren’t driving this bus off the cliff.

  24. godot10 says:

    highgloveside:
    godot10,

    Do you actually think a 1stand two 2nds are worth the upgrade from Russel to Hamonic?Russel was free, that is a lot to give up more for a marginally better player.

    If you want to contend in the next three years…yes. Russell is a marginal D on the backside of his career, and the Oilers are stuck with him for eternity on the cap.

  25. T0ML says:

    Agree, the whole story has to be taken into account …. Pit proved yet again that you need cheap guys to succeed with top heavy Centre’s ….

    treevojo: I said this earlier.

    To me it’s not even debatable.

    This team is going to need young players in the pipeline to sustain this thing for a decade.

    Pretty thankful some of the armchair gms aren’t driving this bus off the cliff.

  26. treevojo says:

    godot10: If you want to contend in the next three years…yes.Russell is a marginal D on the backside of his career, and the Oilers are stuck with him for eternity on the cap.

    Russell’s contract is easily traded.

    4 years is not an eternity.

    Little dramatic today

  27. Professor Q says:

    highgloveside:
    godot10,

    Do you actually think a 1stand two 2nds are worth the upgrade from Russel to Hamonic?Russel was free, that is a lot to give up more for a marginally better player.

    Agreed. Especially with Sekera out.

  28. Diablo says:

    Once again I’d like to thank LT for being such a gracious host … can’t wait to hear your overall impression of this year’s draft.

  29. Woogie63 says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’m terribly disappointed.

    Downgrading from Jordan Eberle to Strome and signing one of the worst top-four defensemen (he’s a bottom pairing) guy for 4m x 4 years while Travis Hamonic was available is just awful.

    Zero confidence that Chiarelli can build a championship team around Connor McDavid.

    Wow I completely disagree with this post.

    Last year was a joy to be an Oiler fan. PC was a big part of that improvement.

  30. Alpine says:

    “Player who got big contract can be easily moved” has probably been said a lot and things haven’t quite turned out. Yes you can move any contract if you wanna include a good enough asset. I hope people are satisfied with not being able to sign key RFAs in a couple years because Chia caved again.

  31. npanciroli says:

    I can understand the Russell hate. But Hamonic’s last year is awful, knee injuries and I’m not sold.

  32. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    doritogrande,

    All this talk about banking on career years, “window to win” and the hair pulling over the McDavid ELC is pure goofiness.

    Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and the Penguins have proved that this theory is clap-trap, doesn’t exit, is hooy, baloney whatever you want to call it.

    The Oilers window to win is however long Connor McDavid is on the team and in the coming days we will learn that we have his services for the next 5-8 years this will happen along with Leon Draisaitl. They will be joined by Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Cam Talbot as the Oilers core, with the understanding that Cam Talbot will one day be replaced due to age. Go ahead and call it “career years” but the first four men on that list will be 21, 22, 24 and 25 years old at the end of next season. These aren’t likely to be career years, these are more than likely development years.

    Benning and Nurse also have a chance to join that grouping if they continue to improve.

    If you look close enough there is a method to the madness here. It may be frustrating but its clear that the Oilers are setting themselves up to build internally and rollover when vets start declining. Attempting to pull off a Red Wing level of pipeline development with the Uber-talent enjoyed by Pittsburgh. The last two days of draft picks are underlining this. High end skill forwards (warts overall), overall skilled dmen and a goaler for good luck.

    On defense, Russell and Sekera’s contracts come off the books just as you’d be expecting to see any number of Bear, Jones, Mantha and Paigan to start matriculating. Two of them would join a top four of Klefbom, Larsson, Benning and Nurse. The costs of this strategy are very very manageable on the backend.

    Once Sekera returns and assuming extensions that top out at say $4 million each for Benning and Nurse (I believe this to be on the higher end) the Oilers defense would cost $25.8 million (1/3 of the 2018 cap), for the start of next season and that would be locked in until 2021-2022, unless made cheaper by Oilers d-prospects cracking the roster. Even after that neither Russell nor Sekera have full NMC’s, a very important fact. For four years this kind of certainty is very useful because after this season you wouldn’t expect significant regressions from any of the younger dmen who will increasingly pickup the responsibilities of the older two.

    This system is designed to have natural replacement levels and this may be why the price for Hamonic wasn’t worth it. You won’t need to re-up Russell in 4 years like you will Hamonic and Brodie in their Prime, nor will Russell block the development of your D-core marinating in the AHL like Hamonic almost certainly will for Kylington at some point (barring a Giordano trade). And as a finale, Russell and Sekera didn’t cost anything but money to acquire. As the Oilers core gets older draft picks and prospects will become ever more valuable. Calgary shed a lot of those for two of their top 4.

    The same thing is happening up top with the forwards, anyone not of the McD-Leon cluster is going away, spots are open for guys of all stripes to fill. Short term there are Nuge, JP, recent/soon to be college free agents, guys like Maroon, RFA’s like Strome. In the longer term there is Benson, and the most recent crops of draft picks. All to be supplemented by FA’s.

    After next season you’ll likely see say $5.675 -$ 7.675 million come off the books with Fayne-Pouliot. Hell Pouliot could be traded this summer or even play well enough to redeem himself next year! Either way you have that money available to re-up Nurse/Benning. Negligible change in overall cap hit.

    Lots of forward contracts roll over next year as well. But you still have your trio down the middle, lots of prospects bubbling and that’s all that really matters.

    I’m all in with this idea but I know a lot of people won’t be. It comes down to how much you trust the people currently running, coaching, evaluating and playing for the Edmonton Oilers system wide. I understand being worried because of the Decade of Darkness but there are a lot of good arrows.

  33. edwards_daddy says:

    Strapping Jocks,

    Hmmm – I would say our set of 4 centres is one of the best in the league.
    A couple of 20 goal wingers and a RHD to run a pp unit might be preferable.

  34. doritogrande says:

    Hopefully we can resign Kassian ar a discount and lock up the two franchise players before 7/1.

    Not possible. Connor cannot be signed before July 1st, per the CBA. Like your optimism though.

  35. Nate780 says:

    Having this weird feeling of Deja vu, comments are bringing me back to the summer of 16. Ridiculous

  36. haters says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’m terribly disappointed.

    Downgrading from Jordan Eberle to Strome and signing one of the worst top-four defensemen (he’s a bottom pairing) guy for 4m x 4 years while Travis Hamonic was available is just awful.

    Zero confidence that Chiarelli can build a championship team around Connor McDavid.

    I think you should cheer for a more analytics based team. Florida or possibly Phoenix look like a good fit. Zero confidence ? We just finished a 100+ point season and 2 rounds of playoffs after 10 years of darkness. Which I think accounts for some of the snarkyness towards the team and it’s choices.

    Box cars don’t lie though and we are lucky to get anything for Ebs and his horrible contract.
    Russell was statistically one of the best Dmen in the playoffs for us.

  37. Gret99zky says:

    Bill Daly: “We have a winner! The first pick in the 2018 NHL entry draft goes to…the Calgary Flames.”

    Oiler Nation: “Bwwaaahahahahaha!!!”

  38. Pouzar says:

    haters,

    Yer a tough nut to scratch Hater(s)

  39. Pouzar says:

    Kids Soccer tourney over, shitty weather, empty stomach….tread lightly Lowetidians!
    #ThatMeansIamDrinkin

  40. meanashell11 says:

    Back to Phil Kemp. I am not sure how to search this blog but I raised him as a possible choice earlier this year. Must be a MacT pick as he will know him well. I have known him since he was 4 or 5 years old. My oldest son played hockey and lax with Phil’s older brother for years. Good family, good kid, doubt he has stopped growing….. I already congratulated his parents, they must be very proud!

  41. treevojo says:

    Pouzar:
    Kids Soccer tourney over, shitty weather, empty stomach….tread lightly Lowetidians!
    #ThatMeansIamDrinkin

    I hope the nurse bashers are out tonight so you can entertain me.

  42. LadiesloveSmid says:

    gogliano: Yeah I’m banking on McDavid to regress to a median NHL player.

    Up the reading comprehension practice booklets. Awful.

  43. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Insightful comment and very reasonable line of thinking. I concur, and appreciate you taking the time to post.

  44. fifthcartel says:

    haters,

    With all due respect, I should and will cheer for and enjoy hockey however I please.

    The 2016-17 Oilers had a successful campaign, but not without serious question marks. They struggled to score with CMD not on the ice, and one of the better scorers is now gone and replaced with a with worse option.

    Instead of upgrading the defense, they signed one of the statistically worse defensemen playing a top-four role for four years, severely limited their ability to meaningfully upgrade the defense

    At this point they are not a better team and I fear with every trade that sees the Oilers lose value has serious consequences that will catch up to them.

  45. Chachi says:

    The hyperbole and hysteria here and on twitter is reminiscent of what I imagine would come from posters on a “One Direction” fan site. And this is coming from people who have demonstrated in the past that they have some intelligence and have put significant time and effort into producing content they want people to take seriously. It is a shame.

  46. David says:

    My goodness there is a lot of crazy out there in Oiler fans!

    “There is more than three months until the season starts and Chiarelli clearly doesn’t plan on doing anymore upgrades!” – remember when he brought in Russel and Versteeg right before the season?

    “Our team that had 103 points and would have made the conference final and possibly farther if not for universally accepted botched calls is going to be a lottery team!” – What???

    “If our number one goalie gets injured it’s going to be a really tough year!” – said 98% of teams ever

    “Everyone who had a great year this year is going to have a bad year next year and no one who had a bad year will have a good year” – If regression to the norm is a thing you believe in that you should expect Nuge and Lucic and Pouliot (if he’s still here) to have stronger years.

    “Drasaitl is no Malkin” “This team with Connor McDavid should win the cup every year” – You understand that Pittsburgh had a long span in between Cups right? With Crosby and Malkin? You know that once in the playoffs anyone can win? Ottawa a team that according to some was a joke with no business being in the playoffs took the team with Crosby to double overtime game seven right? How come the moves that Jim Rutherford made had positive impact on Pittsburgh? How come a coaching change had a positive impact? So why are people saying that even if Chiarelli wins a cup it’s just because he has McDavid?

    “Kris Russel is the most garbage hockier of all the garbage hockiers” – sigh

    “Kris Russel makes the team worse than last year” – He was on the team last year

    “Kris Russel’s contract is the most garbage contract of all the garbage contracts” – Ok for starters four years is not an eternity. Second by far and away the most likely outcome is that he is here for two seasons and then is traded for something like a second round pick. Or third. Or more. The point is we initially got Russel for nothing and instead of losing him for nothing we’ll use him as a stop gap for a couple years (and if Nurse and Benning out play him they’ll get his minutes) and then move him for an additional asset. Even if it’s something like a third that’s better than letting him walk.

    “Eberle for Strome was the most garbage trade of all the garbage trades” – Remember when people were calling the Hall for Larsson trade the worst trade of all time. Ya, I actually heard that one. Now it doesn’t seem so bad? Maybe people just lose their heads when a beloved player is traded. Maybe the best way to evaluate a trade is by what the actual outcomes are.

    – Also I’ll just through in my two cents that Eberle really was a declining player. He’s not the 76 point electrifying threat he was years ago. It has been pointed out multiple times that He and Strome have the same 5v5 points per 60 in recent years. Maybe getting a cheaper younger faster asset and giving him more opportunity to succeed is a good move.

  47. David says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    doritogrande,

    All this talk about banking on career years, “window to win” and the hair pulling over the McDavid ELC is pure goofiness.

    Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and the Penguins have proved that this theory is clap-trap, doesn’t exit, is hooy, baloney whatever you want to call it.

    The Oilers window to win is however long Connor McDavid is on the team and in the coming days we will learn that we have his services for the next 5-8 years this will happen along with Leon Draisaitl. They will be joined by Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Cam Talbot as the Oilers core, with the understanding that Cam Talbot will one day be replaced due to age. Go ahead and call it “career years” but the first four men on that list will be 21, 22, 24 and 25 years old at the end of next season. These aren’t likely to be career years, these are more than likely development years.

    Benning and Nurse also have a chance to join that grouping if they continue to improve.

    If you look close enough there is a method to the madness here. It may be frustrating but its clear that the Oilers are setting themselves up to build internally and rollover when vets start declining. Attempting to pull off a Red Wing level of pipeline development with the Uber-talent enjoyed by Pittsburgh. The last two days of draft picks are underlining this. High end skill forwards (warts overall), overall skilled dmen and a goaler for good luck.

    On defense, Russell and Sekera’s contracts come off the books just as you’d be expecting to see any number of Bear, Jones, Mantha and Paigan to start matriculating. Two of them would join a top four of Klefbom, Larsson, Benning and Nurse. The costs of this strategy are very very manageable on the backend.

    Once Sekera returns and assuming extensions that top out at say $4 million each for Benning and Nurse (I believe this to be on the higher end) the Oilers defense would cost $25.8 million (1/3 of the 2018 cap), for the start of next season and that would be locked in until 2021-2022, unless made cheaper by Oilers d-prospects cracking the roster. Even after that neither Russell nor Sekera have full NMC’s, a very important fact. For four years this kind of certainty is very useful because after this season you wouldn’t expect significant regressions from any of the younger dmen who will increasingly pickup the responsibilities of the older two.

    This system is designed to have natural replacement levels and this may be why the price for Hamonic wasn’t worth it. You won’t need to re-up Russell in 4 years like you will Hamonic and Brodie in their Prime, nor will Russell block the development of your D-core marinating in the AHL like Hamonic almost certainly will for Kylington at some point (barring a Giordano trade). And as a finale, Russell and Sekera didn’t cost anything but money to acquire. As the Oilers core gets older draft picks and prospects will become ever more valuable. Calgary shed a lot of those for two of their top 4.

    The same thing is happening up top with the forwards, anyone not of the McD-Leon cluster is going away, spots are open for guys of all stripes to fill. Short term there are Nuge, JP, recent/soon to be college free agents, guys like Maroon, RFA’s like Strome. In the longer term there is Benson, and the most recent crops of draft picks. All to be supplemented by FA’s.

    After next season you’ll likely see say $5.675 -$ 7.675 million come off the books with Fayne-Pouliot. Hell Pouliot could be traded this summer or even play well enough to redeem himself next year! Either way you have that money available to re-up Nurse/Benning. Negligible change in overall cap hit.

    Lots of forward contracts roll over next year as well. But you still have your trio down the middle, lots of prospects bubbling and that’s all that really matters.

    I’m all in with this idea but I know a lot of people won’t be. It comes down to how much you trust the people currently running, coaching, evaluating and playing for the Edmonton Oilers system wide. I understand being worried because of the Decade of Darkness but there are a lot of good arrows.

    Nailed it

  48. Alpine says:

    McDavid is that good that he can overshadow downgrades on the lines below him and the D pairings. Kris Russell does make the Oilers worse. It’s just that all the time he spends with McDavid props him up to average from below average.

  49. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Eberle for Strome will look good in a year like Hall for Larsson did? I’d sacrifice my first born to reverse that trade.

    No way oil hit 103P this coming season with the roster as is, I will bet on that.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    Russell (not signing him) a first and two seconds would have been a steep price to pay for Hamonic. I would have done it but I can see how a person wouldn’t.

    I do like the bets Chia placed in this draft.

  51. N64 says:

    ashley: Or maybe he did and if you are NYI and getting offers of 1st rounder and two seconds from CGY and EDM, which package would you take?

    The one that unlocks the Ebs Strome deal that Chia unlocked a few days before. Snow wanted Ebs as part of his Tavares campaign.

    I like your first theory better. Rightly or wrongly Chia did not evaluate Hamaonic as being worth a similar or close draft pick package. We wait. Chia better be ready for Flames playoff D. We may see it a few times.

  52. slopitch says:

    How much cap space do the oil have? Really need to see that 29/97 sign for so we can lock in some ufa’s on short term deals who want to play with McDavid.

  53. godot10 says:

    treevojo: Russell’s contract is easily traded.

    4 years is not an eternity.

    Little dramatic today

    It will turn out NOT to be (easily traded) hence an eternity (as the McDavid clock ticks toward midnight).

    #TheWrongSideOfMyWinWinScenarioIsWinning

  54. Thorin says:

    ashley:
    Maybe Chia didn’t want Hamonic.He did have a bad year.

    Or maybe he did and if you are NYI and getting offers of 1st rounder and two seconds from CGY and EDM, which package would you take?

    The most valuable item is the 1st rounder which might end up as low as 27-31 for EDM (and probably not higher than 24), or could be 8-18 for CGY with a small chance of the pick being in the top 8.That’s a big difference given the precipitous drop in likelihood of drafting a useful NHL player from early to late first round.

    Kudos on this fantastic diss!

    “Yeah, we don’t want to trade with you Oilers, we want to trade with the Flames because it’s obvious they’re gonna spectacularly fail next year”

    As an Oilers fan, I hope that exact scenario plays out.

  55. JDI says:

    Chachi: It is a shame.

    They haven’t been the same without Zayn. That’s not hyperbole, it’s just FACT!

  56. treevojo says:

    godot10: It will turn out NOT to be.

    I guess we will have to wait for eternity to see how it plays out.

  57. godot10 says:

    Sacrilege mode ON

    I wonder if Lowetide sells off his balance photo to a Flames blogger.

    #TheyAreAlreadyRestingOnTheirLaurelsOnTheKingsway

  58. gogliano says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Up the reading comprehension practice booklets. Awful.

    Your argument did not make much sense — McDavid, Klefbom, and Talbot are three players where progress is not an unreasonable expectation. Talbot maybe, but this was his first year as an unquestioned starter and his first year as a playoff goalie.

    My comment was a tongue and cheek critique. You read it literally, when it should have been read as a rather clear lighthearted critique.

    Enjoy your weekend.

  59. VOR says:

    I don’t really have an opinion on whether the sky is falling or not. As a farmer I can assure you lately it has been falling way too much for my taste. My peas and wheat are both yellowing out. I need the sky to stay up there where it belongs and be clear and bright thanks.

    I also am almost alone in believing Strome is an upgrade on Eberle. I think they both could have really good years, each has greater opportunities on their new teams than they did on their old teams. So I liked that trade. I am also in the minority in that I think Russell is probably fairly valued at $4,000,000. And I am still concerned.

    By the opening of the 18-19 season our 6 D, two superstars and goalie (9 players) could easily be eating 2/3s of the cap if McKenzie and others are right about the 14 million and 8 million numbers. Realistically the Oilers need 14 more players on NHL contracts. Lucic/Strome/Maroon or Maroon replacement/Kassian/Nuge will take $20 million at least. So the Oilers have $5 million to pay 9 players that need to be good enough to help win a Stanley Cup. And that last number is being very optimistic.

    Now put that awful relentless math together with the fact that our current GM, the guy at the top, lost his last job specifically (supposedly) because he drove a team straight into cap hell and you can’t blame the naysayers from going what the hell is Chiarelli thinking giving Russell $4,000,000 a year?

    Can we not all see the hand writing on the wall – Pouliot is leaving town on tomorrow’s train, Nuge is gone for sure sometime in the next year, probably so is Maroon. It must also be apparent that If you are going to win you really need those cheap young players to be the right cheap young players. Then you have to figure out some way to keep them happy or you are in the position of having to find good, cheap young players and aging vets with a few miles left on the odometer and the desire to win a Stanley Cup to replenish the system. And you need to keep doing it over and over and over.

    We could well be exactly like Chicago except in even more of a dire cap situation. That would have given me hope in the past. But I am sure we have all noticed Chicago finally lost to the same inevitable math we are confronting and had to dump a great veteran D and a rising offensive super star to get cheaper with more contract certainty. Anyone think Chicago is as good today as it was a week ago? Anybody think Chiarelli is better than Bowman as a GM?

    Now add to that the fact that we can’t be sure exactly how much of what we saw last year was luck. That is just a sad statistical reality. So we have no way of knowing until we see next season if we should be concerned about repeat-ability or not.

    Then there are those of us who had the great fortune to see the Boys on the Bus live and in person. I am sure none of us particularly wants to relive the great sell-off. But this is starting to look like that, except we didn’t get to see the greatness grow and blossom first.

    Now put all that together and view it dispassionately. There may be positive arrows (sunshine right now) but there are big black thunderstorms on the horizon and your crops are already drowning. And you can’t do anything about it.

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    fifthcartel,

    godot10,

    Are you able to show why Russell is so terrible? I have issues with him, and would have preferred a different route if possible, but I haven’t seen anyone come up with a ‘solid’ numerical argument that he’s horrible. I think it is owed to us given the constant doomsdaying we are presented with.

    I don’t like that he gives up the zone, is too small to break cycles and chases a lot. i don’t like the tempo breaking resets behind the net that allows teams to set up and doesn’t take advantage of the forward skill. I don’t like that LT thinks he isn’t a good puck mover.

    I still haven’t seen him shown as an obvious team killer either in a well explained stats manner. Just putting up stats with no context and explanation as to why they are valid isn’t a solid argument. The numbers could mean everything or nothing about the player.

    Edit: My eyes told me that by season end and in a lot of the playoffs he wasn’t bad. Earlier I had seen him miss coverages that resulted in goals against, sometimes in compensating for his partner too much, which for me is a deal breaker especially from a vet. But that seemed to calm down.

  61. BONVIE says:

    Big Welcome to Calgary for Hamonic on behalf of an Oiler fan. Hopefully he brings his team high staggering -21 in only 49 games played last season. That’s a number even Patrick OSullivan would have had difficulty achieving on a plus team like the Islanders.

  62. McSorley33 says:

    godot10,

    Same.

    The last few days encapsulates PC…….excellent draft.

    Contrasted by signing Russelll, Long Term. Then watching Calgary obtain Hamonic .

    Perplexing.

  63. pocession charge says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Eberle for Strome will look good in a year like Hall for Larsson did? I’d sacrifice my first born to reverse that trade.

    No way oil hit 103P this coming season with the roster as is, I will bet on that.

    I’ll take that bet. Name your wager.

  64. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    fifthcartel,

    godot10,

    Are you able to show why Russell is so terrible? I have issues with him, and would have preferred a different route if possible, but I haven’t seen anyone come up with a ‘solid’ numerical argument that he’s horrible. I think it is owed to us given the constant doomsdaying we are presented with.

    I don’t like that he gives up the zone, is too small to break cycles and chases a lot. i don’t like the tempo breaking resets behind the net that allows teams to set up and doesn’t take advantage of the forward skill. I don’t like that LT thinks he isn’t a good puck mover.

    I still haven’t seen him shown as an obvious team killer either in a well explained stats manner. Just putting up stats with no contextand explanation as to why they are valid isn’t a solid argument. The numbers could mean everything or nothing about the player.

    Edit: My eyes told me that by season end and in a lot of the playoffs he wasn’t bad. Earlier I had seen him miss coverages that resulted in goals against, sometimes in compensating for his partner too much, which for me is a deal breaker especially from a vet. But that seemed to calm down.

    Woodguy, Matt Henderson, CopperNBlue, and even LT have done advanced stats breakdowns of Russell.

    I am for Russell, as long as it is for one year at a time…one year contracts. Non-core players should never get duration. There are always guys walking around in the summer looking for a job.

  65. pocession charge says:

    Sign Russell for $4M and don’t give up assets. Get Hamonic for $3.85M and trade away a 1st and two 2nd’s. It’s a no brainer — Russell is the better option. And to be honest, I prefer Russell straight up to Hamonic. He’s one more knee injury away from a prosthetic leg..

  66. pocession charge says:

    godot10: Woodguy, Matt Henderson, CopperNBlue, and even LThave done advanced stats breakdowns of Russell.

    I am for Russell, as long as it is for one year at a time…one year contracts.Non-core players should never get duration.There are always guys walking around in the summer looking for a job.

    Yeah but he’s tradeable so who gives a shit.

  67. pocession charge says:

    npanciroli:
    I can understand the Russell hate. But Hamonic’s last year is awful, knee injuries and I’m not sold.

    I don’t understand the Russell hate. I mean…I’d rather have Erik Karlsson or Victor Hedman but they aren’t available. But he’s durable, a great shot blocker, competes hard, good skater, cost nothing to acquire. Hamonic is overrated by Oilers fans. McDavid will pylon him next season and we’ll all laugh.

  68. pocession charge says:

    Russell can play top four minutes. Russell can play left and right side. Why do people here have such a hard on for Travis Harmonic?

  69. Alpine says:

    pocession charge: I don’t understand the Russell hate.I mean…I’d rather have Erik Karlsson or Victor Hedman but they aren’t available.But he’s durable, a great shot blocker, competes hard, good skater, cost nothing to acquire.Hamonic is overrated by Oilers fans.McDavid will pylon him next season and we’ll all laugh.

    No one hates him. They hate the contract that he’s far from being worth.

  70. Alpine says:

    pocession charge:
    Russell can play top four minutes.Russell can play left and right side.Why do people here have such a hard on for Travis Harmonic?

    He can ‘play’ right side as in he can line up here. He doesn’t exactly succeed there.

  71. pocession charge says:

    Alpine: No one hates him. They hate the contract that he’s far from being worth.

    If you look at comparables, his contract isn’t absurd. If he had a NMC, I would have lost my mind. But he’s tradeable so there isn’t much worry.

    Some people hate him because a) his gap control is poor, b) he’s a negative Corsi player, c) he doesn’t bring much offense, or d) he’s a negative DangerFen player. D is my biggest concern but not enough to hate him. The fact of the matter is Reggie got injured and the Oilers need veteran depth. Russell would have gotten a similar deal from another team and the Oilers would have been scrambling to fill that spot.

  72. pocession charge says:

    Alpine: He can ‘play’ right side as in he can line up here. He doesn’t exactly succeed there.

    He succeeded there last year with Sekera in my opinion. The coach would agree with me, too. Let me ask you: Who would you have played in that spot that would have been an improvement on KR?

  73. Ryan says:

    McSorley33,

    Even if you’re a guy who likes Russell (I am not), it’s hard to see the sagacity in paying 3 left shot dmen top four dollars.

    You’ve also basically given up on improving or balancing an already mediocre top four d for the next four years.

    Even if Chiarelli has some sort of Quixotic view of Russell’s shot blocking prowess, he’s still a guy that ostensibly values that lefty righty thing.

    History tells us that if you’re in a bind between overpaying in dollars and term for an aging undersized #4ish/5 defenseman, you only win by walking away.

    Or trading for Hjarmalson or Schlemko.

    I was on board with the Eberle trade because of the cap savings, age, ability to play center, but still aware that in isolation, it likely makes the team worse next season.

    The Sekera injury, Eberle trade, and Russell signing only add up to make this team worse next season. That’s not what we were hoping for especially the addled thinking with respect to Russell.

    Listening to Stauffer last week, he said something like “Don’t you think the Oilers need to reward Russsel for how he played last season?”

    That’s a fool’s errand worrying more about rewarding Russell than taking advantage of the buy low opportunities on Hjarlmalson.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    I know most Oil fans won’t care but I’m pretty sure the Flames would have signed Russell if the Oil didn’t instead of trading for Hamonic

  75. pocession charge says:

    Ryan:
    McSorley33,

    Even if you’re a guy who likes Russell (I am not), it’s hard to see the sagacity in paying 3 left shot dmen top four dollars.

    You’ve also basically given up on improving or balancing an already mediocre top four d for the next four years.

    Even if Chiarelli has some sort of Quixotic view of Russell’s shot blocking prowess, he’s still a guy that ostensibly values that lefty righty thing.

    History tells us that if you’re in a bind between overpaying in dollars and term for an aging undersized #4ish/5 defenseman, you only win by walking away.

    Or trading for Hjarmalson or Schlemko.

    I was on board with the Eberle trade because of the cap savings, age, ability to play center, but still aware that in isolation, it likely makes the team worse next season.

    The Sekera injury, Eberle trade, and Russell signing only add up to make this team worse next season. That’s not what we were hoping for especially the addled thinking with respect to Russell.

    Listening to Stauffer last week, he said something like “Don’t you think the Oilers need to reward Russsel for how he played last season?”

    That’s a fool’s errand worrying more about rewarding Russell than taking advantage of the buy low opportunities on Hjarlmalson.

    So they are worse this year with Russell than last year with Russell? That doesn’t make sense. And they are worse without Eberle because why? The same thing was said after the Hall trade last summer and that was proved wrong. The Sekera injury will make them worse, yes.

    Charmelson wasn’t exactly traded for a song. Connor Murphy is younger, bigger, RH, and cheaper. Basically, it would have cost Benning. Maybe more because now the Oilers are a conference rival.. It’s not worth it.

    For an analytical person, you really aren’t looking at the entire equation, which is very surprising.

  76. Alpine says:

    pocession charge: If you look at comparables, his contract isn’t absurd.If he had a NMC, I would have lost my mind.But he’s tradeable so there isn’t much worry.

    Some people hate him because a) his gap control is poor, b) he’s a negative Corsi player, c) he doesn’t bring much offense, or d) he’s a negative DangerFen player.D is my biggest concern but not enough to hate him.The fact of the matter is Reggie got injured and the Oilers need veteran depth.Russell would have gotten a similar deal from another team and the Oilers would have been scrambling to fill that spot.

    Any average left handed D that could be acquired on a bargain deal or for a pick would probably be just as good. Even if they’re slightly worse, it’s more cost effective than having those extra years on russell’s deal. He wasn’t the only option. Tons of serviceable D out that scouting and statistics can unearth.

  77. pocession charge says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know most Oil fans won’t care but I’m pretty sure the Flames would have signed Russell if the Oil didn’t instead of trading for Hamonic

    I think Calgary or Toronto would have given him something very close.

  78. Munny says:

    VOR,

    We’re in almost complete agreement here, VOR. However, I will gently remind (and I know you know) that there were sell-offs in the early BOTB days that enraged the fan base… BJ MacDonald being the most obvious example. Nothing on the level of Hall, but then nothing on the level of Larsson came our way either.

    But other than that agreed. I consider Strome-Eberle more of a wash, but we’re close in opinion.

  79. Munny says:

    Alpine,

    Please name names. And please limit them to defensemen who play the right side.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: Woodguy, Matt Henderson, CopperNBlue, and even LThave done advanced stats breakdowns of Russell.

    I am for Russell, as long as it is for one year at a time…one year contracts.Non-core players should never get duration.There are always guys walking around in the summer looking for a job.

    But have they done advanced stats breakdowns of Hamonic? Serious question. His stats last year were horrendous!!!!

  81. Ryan says:

    pocession charge,

    Russell’s 30 and 30-year-old 5’10” NHL dmen who eat pucks for a living don’t tend to get better or less prone to injury with age.

    He also had a career high 5v5 on ice save percentage last season of 93.84. I’d expect that number to be lower this up coming season.

    More to the point is that his contract is prohibitive towards improving our top four next season or down the road since teams can’t really afford $4m bottom pairing defenseman.

  82. pocession charge says:

    Would you rather have Russell and Yamamoto and two more draft picks or an injury-riiddled Travis Hamonic?

  83. npanciroli says:

    leadfarmer,

    I imagine it’s pretty ugly if they do.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Woodguy, Matt Henderson, CopperNBlue, and even LThave done advanced stats breakdowns of Russell.

    I am for Russell, as long as it is for one year at a time…one year contracts.Non-core players should never get duration.There are always guys walking around in the summer looking for a job.

    I’d like to see the Woodmoney for sure. Bruce had a lash and I believe found it difficult to get a bead because Russell has a history of showing up good in regards to goals but other fancies aren’t as good.

    I don’t put a lot of weight on writers that use numbers without explaining them in detail – the why. Just using Fenwick, Corsi, relative stats, or any stats without some kind of context and evidence as to why they are valid is really not definitive. Part of a picture, but not the whole picture. I already know Russell has weaknesses. I miss Vic Ferrari for that.

    If you go to Stats Hockey Analysis and look at WOWY’s, Russell and Hamonic have a lot of similarities. Russell is little stronger, but the Oiler D overall had better numbers than the Isles. Russell is bottom on some as is Hamonic, who really stood out with 38.9 GF%, Tavares his main centre, Leddy his main partner.

    Russell was 54.7 GF% main partner Sekera, centre McDavid. Many don’t like GF% for D, but this shows the issues nailing him down.

  85. leadfarmer says:

    So since we hold Russells feet to the fire for his advanced stats isn’t it only fair to do it with Hamonic as well. Here is Hamonic numbers. First one is player with Hamonic, second Hamonic without that player and last is player without HAmonic. This is CF% The stars are player was better without harmonic and exclamation points is player was 10% CF better without HAmonic

    Leddy: 43%, 45.8%, 50.4% ****
    Tavares 46.9%, 42.3%, 55.0% !!!!
    Bailey 46.4%, 42.7%, 52.1% ****
    LEE 46.2%, 43.1%, 54.3% !!!!
    Ladd 44.7%, 43.8%, 47.2% *****
    DeHAan 48.1%, 43.0%, 48.2% *****
    Nelson 43.1%, 44.3%, 45.5% *****
    Chimera 40.8%, 45.0%, 46.1% ******
    Clutterbuck 44.4%, 43.9%, 49.0% ******
    Kulemin 42.2%, 44.5%, 49.2% *****
    Strome 45.5%, 43.8%, 45.4% *****
    Beauviller 45.2%, 43.8%, 43.9% OH so close
    Cizikas 42.3%, 44.4%, 49.3% *****
    Prince 38.9%, 44.9%, 46.3% *******
    Hickey 41.7%, 44.3%, 48.6% *****
    Ho-Sang 51.1%, 43.6%, 52.7% *****

    EVERYBODY WAS BETTER AWAY FROM HAMONIC. THE WHOLE DAMN TEAM WAS BETTER AWAY FROM HAMONIC!!!

    So if we are going to say Russell is a tank on everybodies corsi and we should have gotten Hamonic. Well Hamonic is even bigger tank on everyones corsi

  86. Primetime says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know most Oil fans won’t care but I’m pretty sure the Flames would have signed Russell if the Oil didn’t instead of trading for Hamonic

    I actually suspect there is a lot of truth to this.

    I think Russell was expecting to sign a similar deal with Calgary LAST year, but the Flamers ran out of cap space. Very possible they were waiting for him to hit the market again this year now that Wideman’s cap hit is off the books, but never got the chance.

    In fact there weren’t really any rumblings of Calgary’s interest in Hamonic until AFTER we signed Russell. Chia may have spoiled their plan, forcing the Flames to spend considerable assets on Plan B.

  87. pocession charge says:

    Ryan:
    pocession charge,

    Russell’s 30 and 30-year-old 5’10” NHL dmen who eat pucks for a living don’t tend to get better or less prone to injury with age.

    He also had a career high 5v5 on ice save percentage last season of 93.84. I’d expect that number to be lower this up coming season.

    More to the point is that his contract is prohibitive towards improving our top four next season or down the road since teams can’t really afford $4m bottom pairing defenseman.

    I would not expect that next season would be much worse than last. In fact, certain metrics might improve if he plays the year on his natural left side.

    And after that, he’s tradeable. The team isn’t married to him for the next four years. This point is very important.

  88. jeetz says:

    treevojo,

    Agreed. At first glance I didn’t like the signing but when you look closer, the contract is really creative actually.

    5/4.5/4/2.5 = 16 million

    What is interesting is there is a 1 mil signing bonus July 1 of the summer of year 4.

    A limited no trade last 2 years.

    So the oilers end up paying 14.5 mil in 3 years for and average of 4.8 per year BUT have a cap hit of 4 mil.

    Then the oilers can trade him to a team who will pay the remaining 1.5 mil BUT Russel carries a cap hit of 4 mil. Very attractive to a team who needs to reach the cap floor or has cap space, but doesn’t want to pay a lot.

    Really, to the Oilers it is a 3 year deal with a cap hit of 4 mil. A raise of 0.9 cap hit from last year of 3.1 mil.

    Everybody wins

    That being said adding another quality 2nd pairing veteran defender is still needed in my opinion. You cannot understate Sekera’s value to our defense, and he is gone for a long time

  89. npanciroli says:

    leadfarmer,

    Holy smokes.

  90. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    The gist of Russell’s stats off the top of my head are that he’s a guy who gets caved on shot metrics, but slightly less so on Fenwick.

    His goal share without McDavid is something like 45 percent.

    While his goal share with McDavid is something like 55 percent, he’s a significant drag on McDavid’s on ice goal scoring.

    He’s a boat anchor on Sekera’s shot share, but they both do better apart in terms of shot share percentage apart.

    Basically, you’re going to spend more time in your dzone with Russell on the ice or off with all of the last three teams he played with.

    He’s had runs of good on ice goal metrics driven by runs of high on ice save percentages which is why GM’s have overvalued his contributions at times. He’s had runs of average or below on ice save percentages where he gets caved on goal share.

    Fancy stats folks with the exception of Ricki don’t believe that there’s evidence that dmen can influence on ice save percentages in a repeatable manner.

  91. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    So since we hold Russells feet to the fire for his advanced stats isn’t it only fair to do it with Hamonic as well.Here is Hamonic numbers.First one is player with Hamonic, second Hamonic without that player and last is player without HAmonic.This is CF%The stars are player was better without harmonic and exclamation points is player was 10% CF better without HAmonic

    Leddy:43%,45.8%, 50.4%****
    Tavares 46.9%, 42.3%,55.0% !!!!
    Bailey46.4%, 42.7%,52.1%****
    LEE 46.2%,43.1%, 54.3%!!!!
    Ladd 44.7%, 43.8%, 47.2%*****
    DeHAan48.1%, 43.0%, 48.2%*****
    Nelson 43.1%, 44.3%,45.5% *****
    Chimera 40.8%, 45.0%,46.1%******
    Clutterbuck44.4%, 43.9%, 49.0%******
    Kulemin 42.2%, 44.5%, 49.2% *****
    Strome 45.5%, 43.8%, 45.4%*****
    Beauviller 45.2%, 43.8%, 43.9% OH so close
    Cizikas42.3%, 44.4%, 49.3% *****
    Prince38.9%, 44.9%, 46.3% *******
    Hickey 41.7%, 44.3%, 48.6%*****
    Ho-Sang 51.1%, 43.6%, 52.7% *****

    EVERYBODY WAS BETTER AWAY FROM HAMONIC.THE WHOLE DAMN TEAM WAS BETTER AWAY FROM HAMONIC!!!

    So if we are going to say Russell is a tank on everybodies corsi and we should have gotten Hamonic.Well Hamonic is even bigger tank on everyones corsi

    Hamonic was playing injured last season if that’s where you pulled his data from.

    No question he had a terrible season last year.

  92. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    We need to collectively take a big breath on Foo. He is Caggiula with a bunch less offence. Do I want to sign him? Sure.

    If someone offered me a free 5th round pick, I’d say sure.

    Thats about how excited I am for Foo.

    He’s fine.

  93. pocession charge says:

    Ryan:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    He’s had runs of average or below on ice save percentages where he gets caved on goal share.

    So says every player in the NHL. A bad goalie makes everyone’s fancy numbers look bad.

  94. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ryan: While his goal share with McDavid is something like 55 percent, he’s a significant drag on McDavid’s on ice goal scoring.

    Russell with McDavid had a GF% of 69%. McDavid’s Goals For numbers were lower with Russell, and his Goals Against numbers were also lower.

  95. pocession charge says:

    Ryan: Hamonic was playing injured last season if that’s where you pulled his data from.

    No question he had a terrible season last year.

    How were Erik Karlsson’s numbers playing on a broken foot? I don’t remember him playing so bad. Or Hampus Lindholm in the playoffs? My point being that lots of guys play injured or come back from bad injuries and they don’t boat anchor their team mates to that extent.

  96. YKOil says:

    Ryan:
    McSorley33,
    That’s a fool’s errand worrying more about rewarding Russell than taking advantage of the buy low opportunities on Hjarlmalson.

    This. Also, Russell’s contract isn’t trade-worthy until year 4 – when the difference of pay to cap kicks in – BUT the limited NTC could EASILY scupper any potential trade so even where there ‘is’ a “that’s smart” component to the contract the Oilers ability to realize that benefit is mostly nullified.

    To make the contract palatable to me it would have had to have big signing bonuses years 3 and 4 with no NTC written into the contract for those years. Do that and it still isn’t a GOOD contract but at least it is one where risks can be mitigated.

    In terms of the draft:

    22 – Yamamoto (CW/RS) – normally I may have preferred a trade-back here to get an extra pick or even to help dump a contract but, that said, no issues with pick itself as Yamamoto gives every indication of being the type of prospect a team SHOULD take a chance on.

    78 – Skinner (G) – the reason I may have traded ‘back’ above (the extra pick thing); normally not fond of early goalie picks but that assumes a good stock of goalies in the pipeline and the Oilers don’t have that (no Oilers goalie prospect has me thinking the Oilers are set at goalie long-term) so grabbing a goalie with big potential is fine with me for the 3rd round.

    84 – Samorukov (LD/LS) – good size, leftorium was stacked with older prospects and (active) players so that isn’t a negative here, drafted in range so not a reach, did great on challenged team, did great for first-year in NA guy and the potential is there as forward skating HAS to be a teachable skill… good pick.

    115 – Safin (RW/LS) – fantastic pick, sure he may not turn out but to get this much, recognizable. potential from a pick this late in the draft is just awesome. Sometimes a team gets lucky when a player drops and that may have happened here. We need that.

    146 – Maksimov (W/RS) – Oilers trying to stack up on wingers here: given how well that worked out with d-men last year (it worked well), the Oilers need for wingers, the late surge from Maksimov (small sample size alert) and how late this pick is – all good.

    177 – Brind’Amour (C/L) – I like the fact he is a smart player, by accounts he needs to work on speed and acceleration and first step so I hope he uses his college time wisely and does just that – when you are a smart player the positional stuff comes easy so please work on physical traits. Nice pick.

    208 – Kemp (RD) – 7th round, right handed defenseman, 7th round, great size, 7th round, picked ‘in-range’, 7th round. Like last year – total lottery pick – they are really trusting in USNDT. Good luck kid. Work hard.

    Safin is the steal of the draft as far as I am concerned. Also like Samorukov. Turns this from a ‘meh’ draft that I am relatively okay with into a draft that has me pretty pleased with how it all turned out.

  97. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    The gist of Russell’s stats off the top of my head are that he’s a guy who gets caved on shot metrics, but slightly less so on Fenwick.

    His goal share without McDavid is something like 45 percent.

    While his goal share with McDavid is something like 55 percent, he’s a significant drag on McDavid’s on ice goal scoring.

    He’s a boat anchor on Sekera’s shot share, but they both do better apart in terms of shot share percentage apart.

    Basically, you’re going to spend more time in your dzone with Russell on the ice or off with all of the last three teams he played with.

    He’s had runs of good on ice goal metrics driven by runs of high on ice save percentages which is why GM’s have overvalued his contributions at times. He’s had runs of average or below on ice save percentages where he gets caved on goal share.

    Fancy stats folks with the exception of Ricki don’t believe that there’s evidence that dmen can influence on ice save percentages in a repeatable manner.

    The Following players had GF difference away and with Hamonic last year:
    20% or more. Tavares, Lee (25%!!!), DeHaan
    15-20% Leddy, CLutterbuck, Kulemin, Beauvillier, Cizikas, Prince
    10-15% Nelson, Chimera, Strome, Quine
    <10% Ladd

    So that 10% GF difference Russell has with McDavid doesn't look so bad when you look at the 25% GF difference with Anders Lee

  98. pocession charge says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    We need to collectively take a big breath on Foo.He is Caggiula with a bunch less offence.Do I want to sign him?Sure.

    If someone offered me a free 5th round pick, I’d say sure.

    Thats about how excited I am for Foo.

    He’s fine.

    I would have rather seen them find a one-year veteran RW replacement for Ebs but it appears that they are going to roll the dice with Strome and JP.

  99. Ryan says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Russell with McDavid had a GF% of 69%. McDavid’s Goals For numbers were lower with Russell, and his Goals Against numbers were also lower.

    Sorry, my wife was coming home, so I was running off memory. I’ll tell you what my wife thinks of this blog, but we’ll save that for another day.

    Yes, Russel with McDavid.

    Gf% CF% GF60

    68.8, 48.7, 3.21

    Russell apart

    44.2, 45.1, 1.43

    McDavid apart

    59.8, 54.8, 3.67

    In short, Russell’s stats without McDavid sure scream give me 4 million bucks for the next four years don’t they?

  100. pocession charge says:

    Ryan:
    pocession charge,

    More to the point is that his contract is prohibitive towards improving our top four next season or down the road since teams can’t really afford $4m bottom pairing defenseman.

    I don’t think that the Oilers will have to go outside the organization to upgrade the defense next season (18-19). Benning and Nurse should be about ready by then. And they will have Russell and Seksy to cover off until then. I like the fact that Sekera will be ready to play in the New Year and should be up to full speed by the time playoffs start. Like getting an impact player at the trade deadline.

  101. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: The Following players had GF difference away and with Hamonic last year:
    20% or more. Tavares, Lee (25%!!!), DeHaan
    15-20%Leddy, CLutterbuck, Kulemin, Beauvillier, Cizikas, Prince
    10-15% Nelson, Chimera, Strome, Quine
    <10% Ladd

    So that 10% GF difference Russell has with McDavid doesn’t look so bad when you look at the 25% GF difference with Anders Lee

    Well, the bet Calgary’s making with Hamonic was that his poor play last year was an aberration due to injury.

    Where your logic fails you is that while Hamonic had a terrible season last year, he’s performed very well in the past while with Russell, he is what he is…

  102. YKOil says:

    pocession charge: I would have rather seen them find a one-year veteran RW replacement for Ebs but it appears that they are going to roll the dice with Strome and JP.

    Versteeg is UFA. That would be interesting/sweet.

    Arguably, when PC got cute last year in negotiations with Versteeg – causing Versteeg to sign with Calgary – that opened the door for Drai’s monster year. That monster year is going to cost us more than Versteeg’s contract ever would have.

  103. Munny says:

    Ryan: Hamonic was playing injured last season if that’s where you pulled his data from.

    I know he was injured last year again, but do you have a source that confirms he was playing injured?

  104. McSorley33 says:

    Ryan,

    Completely agree with your thoughts.

    Like Godot has been saying with Belichick, walk away.

    Further, we have witnessed other teams make varying moves with Dmen.

  105. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan,

    I actually like Hamonic and think he’ll recover but I’d be willing to bet Russell was plan A for us and Flames and Hamonic was plan B. Either way I’m glad our season isn’t tied to Smiths groin holding up.

  106. McSorley33 says:

    pocession charge,

    You think 30 year old Dmen age like a fine wine?

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bruce didn’t you find that Russell has had these high GF percentages for years in your article?

  108. leadfarmer says:

    McSorley33:
    Ryan,

    Completely agree with your thoughts.

    Like Godot has been saying with Belichick, walk away.

    Further, we have witnessed other teams make varying moves with Dmen.

    Well the Russell contract is effectively a two to three year contract and then we will send you someplace you don’t hate. What’s the buyout for the 4th season if that fails? Less than a mil for two years?

  109. Munny says:

    Ryan: Hamonic was playing injured last season if that’s where you pulled his data from.

    Going through his game log it appears he didn’t play a game after getting hurt in-game Jan 7, until returning 6 weeks later. Not undergoing off-season surgery for his knee… And a good part of his bad stats occur prior to the injury Jan 7.

  110. Rich M says:

    Ryan,

    Ryan,

    Have you run the numbers on Hamonic prior to last year to back your point?

    Not trying to be a dink, but Leadfarmer’s done some solid work here to make his point.

    Yes, injury has an impact – your point is noted, but how much?

    If the choice was a 1st and two 2nd’s for Hamonic, versus resigning Russell, with the need to restock the cupboard to sustain the team, it seems a pretty obvious choice. We’re not in a place to be giving up top picks the next few years and remain competitive with McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s contracts coming.

  111. YKOil says:

    leadfarmer: Well the Russell contract is effectively a two to three year contract and then we will send you someplace you don’t hate.What’s the buyout for the 4th season if that fails?Less than a mil for two years?

    It is a three-four year deal.

    Russell’s contract isn’t trade-worthy until year 4 – when the difference of pay to cap kicks in – BUT the limited NTC could EASILY scupper any potential trade so even where there ‘is’ a “that’s smart” component to the contract the Oilers ability to realize that benefit is mostly nullified.

    To make the contract tradeable after two years it would have had to have big signing bonuses years 3 and 4 with no NTC written into the contract for those years. Do that and it still isn’t a GOOD contract but at least it is one where risks can be mitigated.

  112. pocession charge says:

    McSorley33:
    pocession charge,

    You think 30 year old Dmen age like a fine wine?

    I don’t think he’s going to fall off a cliff next year if that’s what you’re asking.

  113. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: Well the Russell contract is effectively a two to three year contract and then we will send you someplace you don’t hate.What’s the buyout for the 4th season if that fails?Less than a mil for two years?

    No it’s buyout proof in the last year. The buyout cap is $3m then $500k.

  114. Ryan says:

    Munny: Going through his game log it appears he didn’t play a game after getting hurt in-game Jan 7, until returning 6 weeks later. Not undergoing off-season surgery for his knee…And a good part of his bad stats occur prior to the injury Jan 7.

    No, I don’t have a source. He’s a 26-year-old defenseman who played really shitty last year and very well in the past. Odds are that could be due to injury and he’ll rebound.

  115. npanciroli says:

    I don’t like the Russell signing but I also don’t like the Hamonic trade. I probably would have done neither.

    Whether that leaves you with Nurse and Benning which is risky on its own right as a second pair or hoping for another piece, that is what I would have done.

  116. npanciroli says:

    Ryan,

    Concern for me is the knee injuries are adding up. It can totally go either way.

  117. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Does everyone like Silfverberg ? Wish we had him? Last season was his first over 40 points. He’s turning 27. Strome or JP or others could easily do that in a top 6 role.

    It is easy to covet other teams players and not see we have better players now, and if given the same opportunities would be as good or better. Anaheim ran a bunch of young D that messed up lots, also playing behind two very good and another vet centre.

    Are Manson, Vatanen and Montour better overall than Nurse and Benning? I don’t think it’s clear cut. We have a top pair. How would our young guys look if they didn’t have centres that are younger than they are?

    If you had to balance the cap,build a team from ashes, motivate and develop the players you have and get better and win Cups and sustain a good team in the future, how would you do it better?

    Reinhart was a poor deal. That’s all I have on Riverboat Pete.

  118. treevojo says:

    jeetz:
    treevojo,

    Agreed. At first glance I didn’t like the signing but when you look closer, the contract is really creative actually.

    5/4.5/4/2.5 = 16 million

    What is interesting is there is a 1 mil signing bonus July 1 of the summer of year 4.

    A limited no trade last 2 years.

    So the oilers end up paying 14.5 mil in 3 years for and average of 4.8 per year BUT have a cap hit of 4 mil.

    Then the oilers can trade him to a team who will pay the remaining 1.5 mil BUT Russel carries a cap hit of 4 mil. Very attractive to a team who needs to reach the cap floor or has cap space, but doesn’t want to pay a lot.

    Really, to the Oilers it is a 3 year deal with a cap hit of 4 mil. A raise of 0.9 cap hit from last year of 3.1 mil.

    Everybody wins

    That being said adding another quality 2nd pairing veteran defender is still needed in my opinion. You cannot understate Sekera’s value to our defense, and he is gone for a long time

    Exactly.

    Easily tradable July of the last year.

    Chayka and few others would eat that up in a second.

  119. Diablo says:

    Oilers Rig had some info up on Yamamoto’s Draft Combine – I recommend you guys check it out if you’re feeling glum about Harmonic to Calgary.

    Kailer, the smallest guy in the draft, did pretty well, including finishing first in VO2 max.

    I’m absolutely loving this pick.

  120. Ryan says:

    Rich M:
    Ryan,

    Ryan,

    Have you run the numbers on Hamonic prior to last year to back your point?

    Not trying to be a dink, but Leadfarmer’s done some solid work here to make his point.

    Yes, injury has an impact – your point is noted, but how much?

    If the choice was a 1st and two 2nd’s for Hamonic, versus resigning Russell, with the need to restock the cupboard to sustain the team, it seems a pretty obvious choice. We’re not in a place to be giving up top picks the next few years and remain competitive with McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s contracts coming.

    I don’t have to do any work. 🙂 That’s what Woodguy’s useful for…

    Here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/05/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-3-travis.html?q=Travis+Hamonic

    Tough question in a sense. First, I never would have done the Reinhart trade (you can read my reaction at the thread at the time: https://lowetide.ca/2015/06/26/oilers-trade-no-16-for-griffin-reinhart/

    The Reinhart trade is important because if it wasn’t made our cupboard wouldn’t be so bare.

    The other answer is that I wouldn’t have re-signed Russell, Period.

    The downside of the McDavid effect is that it’s caused our GM to overvalue and overpay a marginal player. Also, any marginal advantage over even a Schlemko that you get by signing Russell is negated by the poor cap management.

    I would have negotiated for Hjarlmasson. I would have looked for another stop gap before signing Russell.

    I would need to know more details about Hamonic’s health status, but I would have considered the deal.

    Hell, we spent just as much for Griffin Reinhart who to this day is not a bonafide bottom-pairing defender in the NHL.

  121. Jordan says:

    Should we be concerned that it’s after 5 pm and the harvest Moon hasn’t risen yet this evening?

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If it turns out Russell’s contract is free to move in the first two years, if Nurse and Benning step up he’s gone. Unless he’s rally crapped out he’ll be moveable. I like the idea here because it guarantees Russell his pay for all of it.

    I imagine as he said he wants to be a part of a great team with a good atmosphere and that the discussion included the reality of the roster and cap situation.

    Russell gets guaranteed money that may be his last, maybe not, the Oilers get flexibility, and there are no hard feelings. This goes a long way to signing other players if the word on the street says the Oilers are fair and a great environment, remember the way it used to go down?

  123. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Bruce didn’t you find that Russell has had these high GF percentages for years in your article?

    Well i found that his GF% has consistently been 5 or so % north of his CF% for the last six years running. Woodguy tells me it’s not persistent in that he alternately has a good on ice Shooting % or save %. His SF% is always better than his CF% as well, meaning he isn’t simply leaning on PDO which is based on shots not Corsi.

    For sure he is a queer bird but whether he is the luckiest player in the league or whether conventional analytics can’t get a bead on him I’m still unsure, &’this after watching the guy play a lot in the past year. I have nowhere near the surety of opinion that some of his critics seem to.

  124. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer: Well the Russell contract is effectively a two to three year contract and then we will send you someplace you don’t hate.What’s the buyout for the 4th season if that fails?Less than a mil for two years?

    Plus salary cap recapture that comes with the buyout on front-loaded contracts.

  125. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: I don’t have to do any work. That’s what Woodguy’s useful for…

    Here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/05/oiler-right-shot-dman-search-3-travis.html?q=Travis+Hamonic

    Tough question in a sense. First, I never would have done the Reinhart trade (you can read my reaction at the thread at the time: https://lowetide.ca/2015/06/26/oilers-trade-no-16-for-griffin-reinhart/

    The Reinhart trade is important because if it wasn’t made our cupboard wouldn’t be so bare.

    The other answer is that I wouldn’t have re-signed Russell, Period.

    The downside of the McDavid effect is that it’s caused our GM to overvalue and overpay a marginal player. Also, any marginal advantage over even a Schlemko that you get by signing Russell is negated by the poor cap management.

    I would have negotiated for Hjarlmasson. I would have looked for another stop gap before signing Russell.

    I would need to know more details about Hamonic’s health status, but I would have considered the deal.

    Hell, we spent just as much for Griffin Reinhart who to this day is not a bonafide bottom-pairing defender in the NHL.

    So short career third pair Schlemko that can’t find a home is a reasonable solution? Are you saying Nurse is ready? Isn’t the bigger issue there is nobody with any experience to step up from the farm if a leftie gets hurt?

    I haven’t seen anyone post a reasonable solution to Russell. Harmonic actually isn’t one because he’s right side.

    Hjarmalsson might be a level better, but Bowman is liquidating those he thought dragged them down in their loss. You don’t get rid of the good guys to get better, right?

  126. JustWatt says:

    Ryan: Sorry, my wife was coming home, so I was running off memory. I’ll tell you what my wife thinks of this blog, but we’ll save that for another day.

    Yes, Russel with McDavid.

    Gf% CF% GF60

    68.8, 48.7, 3.21

    Russell apart

    44.2, 45.1, 1.43

    McDavid apart

    59.8, 54.8, 3.67

    In short, Russell’s stats without McDavid sure scream give me 4 million bucks for the next four years don’t they?

    Were anyone’s numbers OK without McDavid last season? Honest question. I don’t think so because McDavid’s line was the only one that scored last season. The entire second line had career worst years and we can’t pin THAT on Russell. The third line center and line in general also was a mess. And because I don’t think that those lines did much better without Russel, how can we ding Russell for that?

    That top line of stats with McDavid is seriously fire! 69% GF% is unbelievable! Maybe, probably, it’s not sustainable but even if it comes back to earth by 5 or 10% it looks EXACTLY like “Pay me $4 million because I’m worth it”! While Russell was on with McDavid the Oilers outscored the opposition by a margin of greater than 2:1! What else in Gord’s name do we want from our 4th best defenceman?

  127. Rich M says:

    Ryan,

    Good stuff, thank you for posting.

  128. Munny says:

    Ryan: No, I don’t have a source. He’s a 26-year-old defenseman who played really shitty last year and very well in the past. Odds are that could be due to injury and he’ll rebound.

    Sounds like you made something up to support a narrative. He may or may not bounce back. Have no idea what the actual odds are.

  129. McNuge93 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    Hjarmalsson might be a level better, but Bowman is liquidating those he thought dragged them down in their loss. You don’t get rid of the good guys to get better, right?

    I wonder if Chicago is clearing some space to take a run in fee agency? Shattenkirk? Etc

  130. Munny says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Nice post.

    As an aside, Stats can inform our questions, opinions etc–and should–but can rarely answer unequivocally. Smart guys like WG and GMon usually don’t present them that way. Others, not so much.

  131. JustWatt says:

    YKOil,

    That might be a tad pessimistic. RHD won’t be growing on trees in two years, veteran D almost always have value, and maybe you retain a portion of his salary for year three, but not year four, and you still can get it done.

    Also, with only a limited NTC he could still be exposed in the next expansion draft for Seattle, should it happen.

    Russell has warts, no question. But he clearly demonstrated some value too. Sounds like a decent 4D man to me. The deal isn’t great but it’s not terrible either.

    As long as McDavid keeps scoring more than, say, 58 or 57% of the goals on the ice while he is with Russell and the rest of the team can score at least 45% at worst he’s a wash. Another year like last year and he’s worth every penny.

    I think the real key to the defense this coming season is going to be who they pick up as a plug for Sekera for the first half of the season. And until they make that deal I think we should all reserve final judgements till then.

  132. Ryan says:

    JustWatt,

    Well McDavid was a bit of goal share drag on Benning, lol.

  133. pocession charge says:

    Scungilli Slushy: So short career third pair Schlemko that can’t find a home is a reasonable solution? Are you saying Nurse is ready? Isn’t the bigger issue there is nobody with any experience to step up from the farm if a leftie gets hurt?

    I haven’t seen anyone post a reasonable solution to Russell. Harmonic actually isn’t one because he’s right side.

    Hjarmalsson might be a level better, but Bowman is liquidating those he thought dragged them down in their loss. You don’t get rid of the good guys to get better, right?

    Translation: Ryan doesn’t have a real plan or solution. Just a lot of complaining for no real reason.

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