TOP 20 PROSPECTS, SUMMER 2017

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers entered the 2017 entry draft badly in need of skilled forwards. In the first round, the club grabbed Kailer Yamamoto and continued to add skill throughout day two. The result is a more balanced prospect list and a big step forward in the battle to establish a system that can feed quality players to the NHL team on demand. Long way to go, this weekend helped enormously.

THE RULES

  • Players over 50 games graduate
  • Players who have been traded no longer appear.
  • List is based on potential and gives zero weight to being close to NHL-ready.
  • Previous ranking in brackets (previous ranking is from Winter 2016)
  • This list likes offense.
  • This list also likes prospects who can make the NHL in more than one way.
  • This list punishes lack of speed. Hard. I mean really hard.

GRADUATES AND EXITS

  • (No. 3 on winter list) L Drake Caggiula. Finished 60gp, 7-11-18 as an Oilers rookie, plus 13gp, 3-0-3 in the playoffs.
  • (No. 4 on winter list) RD Matt Benning. Started well in the minors (6gp, 1-1-2) and then showed impressive range in the NHL (62gp, 3-12-15). Also went 12gp, 0-3-3 in the playoffs.
  • (No. 8 on winter list) R Anton Slepyshev. Spent a little time (9gp, 3-7-10) in Bakersfield before spending half the season (41gp, 4-6-10) with the Oilers. Impressive playoffs.
  • (No. 10 on winter list) R Tyler Pitlick. He is now a free agent but finally passed 50 NHL games to graduate as a prospect. Boxcars (31gp, 8-3-11) were beautiful.
  • (No. 13 on winter list) LD Griffin Reinhart. He played in one NHL game (playoffs) and has since been lost in the expansion draft.
  • (No. 23 on winter list) LD David Musil. In NHL circles, loaning a player is similar to cutting the cord. Speed is more important every season in the NHL game.
  • (No. 26 on winter list) LC Bogdan Yakimov. He is listed on elite prospects playing next season for Neftekhimik, and I think that signals the end of his association with the Oilers.
  • (No. 28 on winter list) L Mitch Moroz. Traded for Henrik Samuelsson later in the season.
  • (No. 34 on winter list) G Zack Nagelvoort. A promising draft day selection in 2014. Signed with Missouri of the ECHL as he turned pro this spring.
  • (No. 35 on winter list) LC Jere Sallinen. A disappointment because his offense was nonexistent on this side of the ocean. Pro scouts missed badly here.
  • (No. 40 on winter list) L Evan Campbell. One of the humorous things about the Oilers is their tendency to draft players, not sign them, but ink one of their undrafted teammates. So, we’ve been following Campbell forever and the team signs fellow UMass-Lowell forward Joe Gambardella instead.
  • (No. 41 on winter list) G Eetu Laurikainen. He signed in the days right after Peter Chiarelli took over, suspect the contract had already been agreed to and the shift occurred under his feet.

TOP 20 PROSPECTS, 2017 SUMMER

(Winter 2016 ranking in brackets)

  1. (1) R Jesse Puljujarvi. Posted 28gp, 1-7-8 in the NHL and 39gp, 12-16-28 in Bakersfield this season. JP wasn’t dominant in either league, but considering age (18) and usage (secondary role in AHL) the boxcars were satisfactory. All of his NHL assists were initial, he did well in possession and his AHL shots total (per game) aligned with Mikko Rantanen. He needs to have a productive offensive season in the NHL.
  2. (NR) R Kailer Yamamoto. Outstanding offensive potential in a small dynamite package. Yamamoto is a wizard with the puck and possesses great speed to go with it. Size is an issue but he’s been dealing with it (and flourishing) since putting on skates. His boxcars (65gp, 42-57-99) are fantastic. He was 28-20-48 at 5×5 this year, behind only Cody Glass among WHL players.
  3. (6) RD Ethan Bear. You could make a strong argument for Bear’s season as the best in the system (outside NHL). He ended up winning WHL Defenseman of the Year, posted 67gp, 28-42-70 and playoffs 17gp, 6-20-26. I am fairly certain he will need at least a year in the AHL to adjust to pro, we shouldn’t assume he’ll get power-play time as a rookie AHL blue.
  4. (7) LD Caleb Jones. Jones has blossomed into a complete defenseman, making him that rare player who defies his draft day scouting report. Delivered 63gp, 9-53-62 in regular year, plus 11gp, 2-8-10 in the postseason. He may be the best skater among defenders in the system and that’s a big advantage when hitting pro. He enters pro hockey in what is basically a tie with Ethan Bear for ‘most promising defender’ and it will be interesting to see who fares best in year one AHL.
  5. (2) L Tyler Benson. Went 33gp, 11-31-42 with the Vancouver Giants before being shut down once again due to injury. He is apparently healthy after surgery and heading to Team Canada (WJ) summer camp, which is encouraging. I do think the Oilers would have strongly considered choosing Kristian Vesalainen if the news on Benson had been worse. He is the top ranked LW in the system.
  6. (NR) R Ostap Safin. There were maybe 10 guys who I liked as offensive wingers outside the first round and damned if the Oilers got the very last one available. High risk-reward player he has size, speed and skill, question being how much and can he post impressive crooked numbers at higher levels. Can’t wait to see his numbers. 5gp, 1-3-4 at U18s, bitches!
  7. (9) LC Jujhar Khaira. He is so close to being an NHL regular but battled injury this season. Posted 27gp, 8-12-20 in the AHL, showing real offensive growth in his third pro season. Has now played in 27 NHL games, played 10 NHL games and scored a goal in 2016-17. A lock for the roster this fall, he is the top ranked center in the system at this time.
  8. (5) LD Ziyat Paigin. After his watershed 2015-16 season, expectations were raised for Paigin. It’s important to remember a lot of his offense comes from power-play time (he has a terrific shot) and that appears to have dried up in 2016-17. Went 17gp, 1-3-4 while battling injury and handling during his KHL season. Signed with the Oilers and finished 5gp, 0-0-0 in Bakersfield. We have to get this player surrounded (shutdown capabilities, massive wingspan, big shot, not a puck mover) and that will happen this coming year. He is not a trad puck mover but can pass effectively and is a solid defender with impressive wingspan.
  9. (NR) G Stuart Skinner. His .920SP at 17 was a great season but this past year was .905, meaning this ranking is based on things other than performance. The collective scouting verbal on Skinner is impressive (from various scouts and services I have read), he clearly represents the modern prototype. Organization is high on him, his frame and movement are a cut above. “Saw him good” gets him inside the top 10, lack of consistency keeps him from being ranked higher.
  10. (NR) L Kirill Maksimov. An intriguing player with (continuing a theme) some risk-reward attached to him. His combination of size, speed and skill immediately makes him one of the most impressive prospects in the system. His ability to protect the puck and win battles along the wall make him a Chiarelli type. I’m not terribly comfortable with the ranking because the reason for it (spike after trade) is a small sample size. However, he also had a strong U18’s and is a June 1999 so more room to grow.
  11. (20) G Dylan Wells. An amazing year for Wells, especially considering the disappointment of his previous campaign. Year over year save percentage progress (.871 to .916) was amazing and his playoff performance (.930) added to the strength of his season.
  12. (NR) LD Dmitri Samorukov. Two-way defender with good speed, mobility and he can move the puck. Improved over the course of the season as a defender but some chaos remains in his game. Has a hard shot, not yet the sum of his parts. Has a risk-reward resume somewhat similar to Safin. Pronman has him ranked and that is part of the reason Samorukov is inside the top 12.
  13. (NR) LC Joe Gambardella. A quality addition for the Oilers who may be a bigger piece of the puzzle than it initially appeared. He is an aggressive forechecker and turns that skill into offense off turnovers. With an NHLE of 82, 13-25-38, he might be the most NHL-ready of the forwards who have yet to play a big league game. His time is now, but his potential lands him here.
  14. (12) G Laurent Brossoit. My line in the sand for goalies to graduate is 25 games, and LB is at 15. He performed very well in the AHL (21gp, 2.67 .908) although his boxcars were harmed by some wobble during Christmas week. In the NHL, he played in eight games, going 1.99, .928 and (I believing) earning a full season as backup to Talbot. Played 28 minutes during the playoffs. I would estimate him as an NHL backup at this time, that is reflected in this ranking.
  15. (11) RD Filip Berglund. He spent the entire season in Sweden’s top league (SHL) and even posted some crooked numbers (49gp, 0-7-7). Berglund has expressed a desire to remain in Sweden next season, which makes sense (he is clearly going to play based on his handling this season). He remains a solid prospect in my mind, ranking reflects an improving prospect pool.
  16. (32) L Joey Laleggia. A revelation this season, especially with his move to LW mid-season. From Boxing Day forward, he went 43gp, 18-13-31. That works out to 16 goals NHLE for 82 games. That has value. He shoots like a maniac too (153 shots in 67 games) and that includes his time on defense. Big rise on this list, on merit. He deserves a long look in training camp.
  17. (14) G Nick Ellis. A strong first season of pro has Nick Ellis in the conversation for NHL employment. He posted superior numbers (34gp, 2.69 .918) to Brossoit and that came in Ellis’ debut season in the AHL. Although he is the fourth goalie listed here, not certain to me there is a massive gap between any of them. Ellis will improve rank by grabbing that AHL starting job and running with it.
  18. (15) RC Aapeli Rasanen. He had some injury problems this year, but performed well when healthy. One of the few noticeable Finns at the WJ’s, he played very well in the USHL (38gp, 7-18-25) and we can hope for progress at Boston College in the fall. He is progressing as a checking center with skill, speed being the one nervous item.
  19. (21) RD John Marino. A strong freshman season for Harvard has Marino’s stock on the rise. A mobile two-way defender, he showed slickness at both ends of the ice. His boxcars (35gp, 2-13-15) were very strong for a first-year college man and should spike as his usage increases over time.
  20. (NR) RD Ryan Mantha. He blossomed this year (65, 17-41-58) with the Niagara Ice Dogs and he’ll get a full AHL season in 2017-18. Important not to overreact to a 20-year old dominating junior, but if reports of improved development (foot speed) are true, the 6.05, 225 defender could be a real find.
  21. (16) LD William Lagesson. He signed with the Oilers, who promptly loaned the Swede to Djurgardens IF in Sweden. The key item for a DD is speed and Lagesson is fast and mobile. A little strange that he was sent to Sweden though, Oilers may have a value on him that is lower than some of the LHD prospects I have below him.
  22. (25) LD Jordan Oesterle. He has defensive holes, but the man can wheel. I hope the Oilers sign him. Went 44gp, 7-25-32 in the AHL and played a couple of NHL games. If you believe a player can improve defensive coverage this man is a good bet, because his foot speed will be NHL calibre for the next decade.
  23. (17) LD Dillon Simpson. Played in his first three NHL games this season and was quietly effective. He would be a solid first recall option out of Bakersfield, but the organization may want to bring in a defender with more potential. Has value as a first callup and may grow into a depth role.
  24. (30) L Graham McPhee. It would be easy to look at his boxcars (39gp, 2-8-10) and see him as shy offensively, but freshman forwards play sparingly for the big programs (Boston College). The most encouraging thing about him is that Corey Pronman liked him as a USHL player and I trust his opinion. Still, needs to score.
  25. (NR) G Shane Starrett. In his two NCAA seasons, he posted .924 and .925 save percentages, suggesting this is in fact his quality of play. At 22, he is a solid pro prospect. He’s tall and thin (6.05, 180), getting mighty crowded at his position.
  26. (19) RC Tyler Vesel. Enjoyed a breakout (39gp, 14-21-35) college season with Omaha. The numbers say he is emerging and the ranking reflects his season. It might be telling that the Oilers didn’t sign him this spring, perhaps they will sign a teammate (hey, they do it a lot!)
  27. (18) LD Markus Niemelainen. He had one of the most baffling seasons by an Oilers prospect in recent memory. His point total went from 27 to nine, but the reports I got about Niemelainen had him playing well, or at least well enough to make the dive in points mysterious. He has signed with HPK in the Sm-Liiga for next season and his stock has certainly fallen. Will the Oilers sign him?
  28. (NR) LC Skyler Brind’Amour. This is one of my favorite moves, the draft and follow. The evidence on Brind’Amour is razor thin, but the blood lines are quality and the bio on him (responsible player) interesting. Not much tape on him, complete wild card but a good risk late in the draft. Described as a 200-foot player, he could rise up on this list in a quick hurry.
  29. (29) L Aidan Muir. Went 20gp, 2-9-11 for Western Michigan this season, suffered a hand injury that derailed him. He is 6.04, 212 and has one more year of college eligibility. His NHLE (18.5) suggests he may have pro-level offense, we may see him in Bakersfield come spring.
  30. (NR) RD Phil Kemp. He sounds like a classic shutdown prospect, with shot blocking and defensive positioning among his bullet points. Good skater, defense first, 6.03 and 201. Miles to go and he is a 1999 so is just getting started.
  31. (31) LD Ben Betker. Big man (6.06, 228) played for Bakersfield (mostly) this winter, going 30gp, 1-5-6 and playing a depth role. Had a good EV GF-GA ratio, will be interesting to see what role he plays this coming season.
  32. (33) R Greg Chase. Went 48gp, 3-11-14 this season, his first full season in the AHL. He has now played 76 games for Bakersfield, posting 5-18-23. Chase has talent but this final year of his entry-level contract has to count.
  33. (36) R Patrick Russell. In looking at his overall numbers first season pro (68gp, 8-9-17) there is disappointment. However, he shoots the puck a lot (150 shots, 2.21 a game) and the Oilers need to cultivate those players. I am looking forward to his second season.
  34. (27) RC Kyle Platzer.  He has not progressed through two pro seasons and time is running out for him in the organization. Needs to establish himself as a regular in the AHL and hasn’r been able to do it through two seasons.
  35. (24) LD Matthew CairnsCairns started in the USHL but wasn’t playing enough, so zipped over to the BCHL,where he posted 18gp, 2-14-16. He is big, got flagged for speed in some of his draft day scouting reports and has a big shot but scored two goals all year. Fell sharply on my list and will need to recover from what was a difficult season.
  36. (37) RD Vincent Desharnais. It is difficult to get much information on players like Desharnais (college men who play a defensive style) but what we read about him this season was solid. I’m not sure when he plans to turn pro but tracking him is going to be an exercise in frustration during his NCAA time.
  37. (38) L Joey Benik. He is not an NHL contract, but is an interesting player because of his scoring ability. Went 21gp, 4-1-5 at the AHL level and was quality in the ECHL. I don’t think he gets an NHL contract but interesting player.
  38. (NR) L Evan Polei. An AHL contract, his size and skill (6.02, 227 and 33 goals) are intriguing. Good hands, speed the issue and we’ll see in a year. He was a quality junior.
  39. (NR) R Dave Gust, Ohio State (NCAA). He is 23, 5.10, 174 and had a big college season (39gp, 18-23-41). AHL contract.
  40. (NR)  R Chad Butcher. Small winger with range of skills, good offense. He is an AHL contract for 2017-18. Speed main weapon, he posted more than 100 points this year.
  41. (39) L Braden Christoffer. Signed in a training camp fever, Christoffer has been unable to score enough (49gp, 5-3-8) or get enough playing time (9:06). Has to be a great experience for him an earning an NHL contract is a dream.
  42. (NR) R Henrik Samuelsson. Acquired in the Mitchell Moroz deal, he is RFA and they basically shut him down five games into his Bakersfield career. Not  a good sign.

BY POSITION

  • Goal: 5
  • Left Defense: 9
  • Right Defense: 6
  • Center: 6
  • Left Wing: 8
  • Right Wing: 8

We are approaching balance here in the prospect pool, strongest positions at first blush would appear to be RW, LD, Goal. Edmonton needs LW’s (despite the number here) and puck-moving defenders of any stripe. One of the things we’ll talk about moving forward is Edmonton’s large group of defensemen best described as two-way or shutdown types. No Torey Krug yet!

NHLE’S FOR THE NEWLY MINTED PROSPECTS!

  1. Kailer Yamamoto 36.2
  2. Ostap Safin 17.8
  3. Kirill Maksimov 14.2
  4. Dmitri Samorukov 7.3
  5. Phil Kemp 3.5
  6. Skyler Brind’Amour 2.8

We are now years past the player type who has significant skating issues, haven’t seen one of those fellows since about 2012. Edmonton does take defensemen who can skate but have shy offense and that continued this season. As always, it is very difficult to assess these talents and put them in order the day after they are drafted, I’ll suggest we will have a much better idea about the new arrivals when we meet again in December for the winter Top 20. Expect Jesse Puljujarvi, Jujhar Khaira and Laurent Brossoit to graduate by Christmas.

One final note: I don’t think this list is complete. We could still see a trade or two and they might involve a prospect coming in or heading out. And there are still college kids to sign. I will update when those things occur. Thanks for reading!

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rickithebear

fifthcartel: I’m not convinced that stuff impacts the game as much as people believe, or that Eberle was that poor defensively. He had his moments, but for all his warts, still has a better impact in hockey games than Ryan Strome does.

I disagree with it being a good cap deal when the cap savings are spent on Kris Russell.

Analytics and MSM are all idiots when it comes to defining shot supression.
Russel has an elite block, forced miss and closed shot rate.
With closed shot excluding more than 70 % of hd data.
Closed shot supression can have a 4o + % variance.

They are much more rare than hd dmen.

Give me
Russel – Larrson
Dehaan – benning
Klefbom – fayne

Send Nurse to ………..

rickithebear

Oil and derp.
The only measure of zonal defence is from ca baseline by distance and volume
Hd distance
Supression volume reduction.

Cf and ca is a measure of a forwards performance.
But should never be indicated as a % but a differential.
Cause 2 difrent % can have the same differential depending on the corsi base.
Which makes cf%, ff%, Sf%, gf% all bullshit.

rickithebear

Oilanderp:
rickithebear,

Do you have a link to some sort of glossary of terms or other info regarding your rickibox?

HD stands for high danger?How do you determine this?

I know you must’ve gone through this already but I missed it.Hence why I asked for a link if you have one.Not trying to poke the bear.

Most sights will break the shots into low medium and high danger.
I prefer to use a natural line in the sand.
Which defines a shot as above average or below average.
The commulative afect i have refered to for years. Can be treated as a density.
The average low danger shot goes in 3.5 % of the time.
The average high danger shot goes in 17.5% of the time.

In the somplified shot density
I use 1 for ld shots and 5 for high danger shots.
With an average hd team generating shot density of 72
You create a curve density relative to 0 to 5 ga.

Our a more accurate cummulitive value for shot density were it s the sum of sot success by shot x,y location.
You get a true shot density were you do not need to define a line in the sand.
I presented this years ago.
But people still do not get it.

There are 2 forms of defence.
1. Hd reduction thru forced Corsix,y greter the distance the poorer the targeting.
Hd dmen
# 1 mcnabb
#3 Stoner
# 8 schmidt
Larsson (1st comp)
Sekera ( 2 nd comp)
Benning (3rd comp)
C. Miller
Emelin
sbisa
Garrison
Methot

2. Supression defined by blocks, forced misses ang closed(0% chance) shots.
Dehaan
Russell…..
Using fenwick excludes 80 % of supression data.
Which Makes it useless.

fifthcartel

Scungilli Slushy: He won’t replace the scoring. The PP minutes might even out with same TOI. But he also won’t be worse in puck battles or defensively. He gives options Eberle doesn’t and has room to grow, Eberle is a mature player now.

No point raging against the cap, it’s there and it’s staying. The question to me s it a good cap deal? I think it is, Strome won’t command a large raise.

I’m not convinced that stuff impacts the game as much as people believe, or that Eberle was that poor defensively. He had his moments, but for all his warts, still has a better impact in hockey games than Ryan Strome does.

I disagree with it being a good cap deal when the cap savings are spent on Kris Russell.

Blackwolf

theres oil in virginia,

After the draft the analysts said only yamamato and nico had elite speed

theres oil in virginia

Ca$h-McMoney!: I’m reading that Yammamoto has blazing speed all over the place.

I spent the entire spring yelling at the Oilers to draft Yammamoto and Skinner, and I was constantly arguing with people on this blog about Yammamoto’s skating in particular.Looks like that is turning a corner now, I’m happy to see it.

Still can’t believe no one took Bellerive though.27 goal 3C with minimal PP time and centering the 1PK unit.Crazy.Oh, and he fights a lot.

I witnessed some of this argument and it was something that I found somewhat amazing, that different camps (you vs the world, if you will) could see the same player and come away with very different assessments of his speed.

Scungilli Slushy

fifthcartel: I get the need to build a prospect pool, but I’d easily trade a ~20th pick and two ~50 picks for a top-4 NHL RHD.

As for Eberle vs Strome, Eberle is the superior even strength and power play scorer, these are just facts.

Eberle points/60

5v5: 1.76
PP: 4.47

Strome points/60
5v5: 1.58
PP: 2.18

When you factor in Eberle’s poor shooting luck, it’s not particularly close.

It wouldn’t be wise to assume Strome replaces what Eberle brought last season.

He won’t replace the scoring. The PP minutes might even out with same TOI. But he also won’t be worse in puck battles or defensively. He gives options Eberle doesn’t and has room to grow, Eberle is a mature player now.

No point raging against the cap, it’s there and it’s staying. The question to me s it a good cap deal? I think it is, Strome won’t command a large raise.

npanciroli

fifthcartel,

I think it was a good bet by Calgary to go for Hamilton with that type of package (which we apparently beat) . Hamonic with his knee injuries and the last year he put up, much more risky. Could definitely get the Hamonic of old, or could get the Hamonic of last year which is a disaster.

Eberle for Strome definitely agree with, wish we used the money some other way.

fifthcartel

who: I would have liked Hamonic also but the price was dear. Maybe too much considering the oilers prospect depth.
Eberle’s last season will not be hard to replace. Don’t know what everyone is so worried about. We are fine at right wing.

I get the need to build a prospect pool, but I’d easily trade a ~20th pick and two ~50 picks for a top-4 NHL RHD.

As for Eberle vs Strome, Eberle is the superior even strength and power play scorer, these are just facts.

Eberle points/60

5v5: 1.76
PP: 4.47

Strome points/60
5v5: 1.58
PP: 2.18

When you factor in Eberle’s poor shooting luck, it’s not particularly close.

It wouldn’t be wise to assume Strome replaces what Eberle brought last season.

Ca$h-McMoney!

jtblack:
Ca$h-McMoney!,

Bellvrie. All true but he does not fight a lot, just to clarify.He went #1 in the WHL draft 3 years ago.Ok 16 yr old season and decent year last year. I was surprised also.He is not the best skater, but I still thought he would be picked in round 4 or 5.

Looks only 2 registered fights this year, 5 the previous year… though I’m sure he had at least 2 in the playoffs this year. Not a fighter, but he will do it, and he plays much bigger than his height. Thick kid too.

Zelepukin

leadfarmer: McDavid will get better the other guys I’d bet no. Just stating the fact that we will not be a good faceoff team next year

Ya, it’s not safe to bet against McDavid’s work ethic in getting better. It’s like at the end of last off-season where they were interviewing guys like Scheifele and Mackinnon who said, somehow McD got faster and everyone was like, ya right, how is that even possible?

Rondo

LT,

Any idea how low Oilers were willing to go to get Yamamoto?

who

fifthcartel:
They really missed the opportunity to add a great RHD’s age 26-29 years instead of playing a bottom pairing LHD on the second pair for more money and more term.

Yamamoto is an interesting bet. Great speed and skills, I like that.

I’m not a fan of the Eberle for Strome trade, especially when the difference in salary was used on Russell. Strome is an interesting player, but not particularly fleet of fleet or a guarantee of anything. Eberle was still a consistent 50+ scorer, even away with a Taylor Hall or Connor McDavid.

I find myself disappointed with the moves made. I think they had a fine draft, Yamamoto was a nice to see them betting on skill, but otherwise I don’t really see how they haven’t made the team worse at this point. They’re definitely not better.

I would have liked Hamonic also but the price was dear. Maybe too much considering the oilers prospect depth.
Eberle’s last season will not be hard to replace. Don’t know what everyone is so worried about. We are fine at right wing.

digger50

In playoffs I felt the last 8 games the Oilers d were being overwhelmed. The plan was dump it in and hit them till they cough up the puck and the plan was working. Benning, Russel, Sekera, Klef and even Nurse were getting worked over. Gryba made a difference one game but he gave up his physical advantage in other areas.

If they go with the same D, they better sign Gryba. Perfect player to sub in

If they bring in someone new, I hope they have some physicality to thier game and some speed for puck retrieval.

Scungilli Slushy

Team play and quality of players affects GA. At this time there isn’t enough data to drill down very far on individuals especially D, so proxies are used like Fenwick.

Individually missing assignments cause GA outside of exceptional plays by opponents. It seems obvious, but coaches mention attention to detail a lot. Trading Eberle for Strome is not going to change things much that way. I think Larsson’s impact in this regard was significant.

Really the only major piece that is missing is a right side defender that can outplay Russell on the right side. They have three strong centres if they play them in the middle.Lots of wingers and a solid backup.

I don’t see a step backward because of the roster, and if players return to career norms, and with the age of a lot of players who should get better, there is a good chance the team is better next season as it is.

I am not certain they will bring anybody in, because then Russell doesn’t have a home mid season. They are also I think still wary of salary beyond one season, can they get a better player than Russell who doesn’t require term? I guess we’ll know next Saturday.

Gerta Rauss

Westchester Oil: I think it will be interesting to see whether JP or Yamamoto gets more points in their NHL careers. I think I would lean to Yamamoto (p.s. we need to come up with a nickname for him).

I think it was Bruce that mentioned yesterday that he has an established nickname- KY (as in slippery)

Thor762

Yamamoto should be nicknamed Kamikaze. It’s the perfect fit.

Small, very fast, fearless player taking on much larger opponents in what looks from an outsiders perspective as a suicide run, coming out of no where, dodging through the defensive flak, to crash the blue paint and score a hit, er, goal.

Yamamoto = Kamikaze

digger50

hunter1909: Yeah, as in Yamamoto getting 10 goals in his first 13 games before getting his sternum shattered and regressing into a 25 point player.

Hmmm, take it your not a fAn of the pick? Not sure what triggered you in my post but:

A lot of times smaller players don’t get hit because they have come up with a sixth sense and are as slippery as hell. Plus they tend to bounce instead of having a big impact.

I think the toughest part is not Kailer driving to the net, but trying to stop an opponent from driving to our net.

fifthcartel

They really missed the opportunity to add a great RHD’s age 26-29 years instead of playing a bottom pairing LHD on the second pair for more money and more term.

Yamamoto is an interesting bet. Great speed and skills, I like that.

I’m not a fan of the Eberle for Strome trade, especially when the difference in salary was used on Russell. Strome is an interesting player, but not particularly fleet of fleet or a guarantee of anything. Eberle was still a consistent 50+ scorer, even away from a Taylor Hall or Connor McDavid.

I find myself disappointed with the moves made. I think they had a fine draft, Yamamoto was a nice to see them betting on skill, but otherwise I don’t really see how they haven’t made the team worse at this point. They’re definitely not better.

frjohnk

Ryan: With respect, this sounds sort of like an “I’m right and they’re wrong” sort of argument.

One sticky wicket with your data set is that EVGA60 relies on goalie save percentage.

The influence of defenseman on goalie ave perctage has not shown any repeatability.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

The other item is since no one knows where you pull your data from, it would be helpful to indicate how many seasons of data you use. Is it just last season?

All of his data is on the wall in the den.
Mark Fistric pictures adorn the honey pot.
Tyson Barrie pictures are adorned by claw marks

Ryan

rickithebear:
Ryan:
Wood money Argued against my Hd theory and situational means for years until they got what i was teaching years later.

Dff% is a complete failed understanding of were dman affect is and were the baseline measure starts.

HD theory period.
Situational mean period.

These are partials of true hockey analytics

Vegas has the best d depth in the league!

1st comp
N. Schmidt #8 Hd dman 1.67; #43 .64 eva60 dman
Methot #70 hd dman 2.08; #110 .50 eva60 dman

2nd comp
Mcnabb #1 hd dman 1.54; #61 .58 EVA60 dman
Sbisa #43 hd dman 1.97; #150 .40 EVA60 dman
C. Miller #52 hd dman 2.03; #99 .52 EVA60 dman
Emelin #52 hd dman 2.03; #129 .45 EVA60 dman
Garrison #60 HD dman 2.05; #110 .50 EVA60 dman

3 rd comp
Stoner #3 HD dman 1.62; #152 EVA60 dman

With respect, this sounds sort of like an “I’m right and they’re wrong” sort of argument.

One sticky wicket with your data set is that EVGA60 relies on goalie save percentage.

The influence of defenseman on goalie ave perctage has not shown any repeatability.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

The other item is since no one knows where you pull your data from, it would be helpful to indicate how many seasons of data you use. Is it just last season?

jtblack

Ca$h-McMoney!,

Bellvrie. All true but he does not fight a lot, just to clarify. He went #1 in the WHL draft 3 years ago. Ok 16 yr old season and decent year last year. I was surprised also. He is not the best skater, but I still thought he would be picked in round 4 or 5.

LMHF#1

treevojo: Correction

We are THE team to beat coming out of the west.

Not if they don’t add multiple pieces before the deadline.

They’ve already gotten worse in terms of the roster and a key defenceman will be attempting to recover from a major injury.

They showed they had important weaknesses that must be addressed – both roster wise and strategy-wise before they can step up.

The again, based on the last few days and the last deadline, I don’t know if Katz wants to win. He might just want a second round team that prints money.

Dominoiler

Maybe Shats is going to Brooklyn?..

leadfarmer

rickithebear:
Ryan:
Wood money Argued against my Hd theory and situational means for years until they got what i was teaching years later.

Dff% is a complete failed understanding of were dman affect is and were the baseline measure starts.

HD theory period.
Situational mean period.

These are partials of true hockey analytics

Vegas has the best d depth in the league!

1st comp
N. Schmidt #8 Hd dman 1.67; #43 .64 eva60 dman
Methot #70 hd dman 2.08; #110 .50 eva60 dman

2nd comp
Mcnabb #1 hd dman 1.54; #61 .58 EVA60 dman
Sbisa #43 hd dman 1.97; #150 .40 EVA60 dman
C. Miller #52 hd dman 2.03; #99 .52 EVA60 dman
Emelin #52 hd dman 2.03; #129 .45 EVA60 dman
Garrison #60 HD dman 2.05; #110 .50 EVA60 dman

3 rd comp
Stoner #3 HD dman 1.62; #152 EVA60 dman

Lol. If your analysis shows that’s the best d team depth in the league then it’s time to question your methods. There’s a reason these high values dmen in your eyes are scraps in this league

leadfarmer

haters: Betting against McDavid ? Kay.
The vitriol from the 10 year drought is to strong still I guess.

When can we start actually stop being negative about this team. How much further do we have to get.
I envision Connor working like a mad man on the only thing he was sub par at this year.
Cheers
Or jeers. wtvr floats your boat

Haterz accusing people of hating is pretty rich. There was no hating involved. McDavid will get better the other guys I’d bet no. Just stating the fact that we will not be a good faceoff team next year

Munny

treevojo: Maybe many stats guys just really like to argue?

I have the ratio of stat and anti-stat guys’ love of arguing at 1:1.

#fancies

treevojo

blainer:
Very happy not to have been in on Hamonic.

I like our D to be physical or move the puck. Hamonic hits went way down over the past three years.

An average of almost three hits per game then two per game until last year where it was just a little over one per game.

He is no Larsson anymore and i have no problem with him on the Flames.

We will be THE team to beat coming out of the west next year IMO.

Correction

We are THE team to beat coming out of the west.

hunter1909

admiralmark: What happened when Sekera went down in the playoffs?

IIRC, Oilers instantly got booted from the playoffs.

hunter1909

digger50: I really enjoy the week after the draft as we digest just where we are sitting and the potential ahead.

Yeah, as in Yamamoto getting 10 goals in his first 13 games before getting his sternum shattered and regressing into a 25 point player.

treevojo

Ryan: Many stats guys would argue that Benning is far ahead of Nurse.

So you’re going to play the inferior player on the top pairing and the better player on the third pairing?

Maybe many stats guys just really like to argue?

blainer

Very happy not to have been in on Hamonic.

I like our D to be physical or move the puck. Hamonic hits went way down over the past three years.

An average of almost three hits per game then two per game until last year where it was just a little over one per game.

He is no Larsson anymore and i have no problem with him on the Flames.

We will be THE team to beat coming out of the west next year IMO.

treevojo

Diablo: Please post the link to that … otherwise all summer we will hear an endless loop about how all we needed to do was add a first to Eberle for Harmonic.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/hockey/islanders/travis-hamonic-traded-to-calgary-for-draft-picks-1.13761218

Scungilli Slushy

The Flames have 4 quality forwards in Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennet and Tkachuk. They have mid league scoring at 17 and GA at 14. They also don’t have a reliable goalie. They might drop GA some. Work to do to contend.

russ99

godot10: Especially if he is paired with Russell, because he will be playing in his own end a LOT more.
And then Benning will be blamed instead of….

Benning is good in our end, even did well against tough playoff competition, that won’t be a problem.

McLellan seems to deploy pairings with one defender and one puckmover, Russell – Benning fits in with that.

How much of a drop off really is a Benning from a Franson/Demers type?

I’d prefer a decent quality experienced D to play with Nurse, let him freewheeel with the puck and cover for his mistakes. Like a better version of Gryba who can skate and make a pass in the defensive zone. Those guys are usually out there after the third day of FA for reasonable salary.

Blackwolf

Apparently the #Isles turned down an offer that included James van Riemsdyk https://t.co/U6klbTnPNV

Marc

Diablo: Please post the link to that … otherwise all summer we will hear an endless loop about how all we needed to do was add a first to Eberle for Harmonic.

I saw that too: http://www.torontosun.com/2017/06/24/hamonics-contract-is-financial-value-in-todays-nhl

Extend Russell

leadfarmer:
If McDavid Nuge and Strome are our centers we are saying screw faceoffs again next year

Betting against McDavid ? Kay.
The vitriol from the 10 year drought is to strong still I guess.

When can we start actually stop being negative about this team. How much further do we have to get.
I envision Connor working like a mad man on the only thing he was sub par at this year.
Cheers
Or jeers. wtvr floats your boat

Oilander

rickithebear,

Do you have a link to some sort of glossary of terms or other info regarding your rickibox?

HD stands for high danger? How do you determine this?

I know you must’ve gone through this already but I missed it. Hence why I asked for a link if you have one. Not trying to poke the bear.

Ca$h-McMoney!

McSorley33:
I would have preferred The 2 C’s that went just ahead of Yamamoto, but I am really happy with the picks, save for the goalie.

The Yamamoto kid has factors that I love that,imo, mitigate his size.

First, and most importantly, blazing speed.

Second, the fight in the dog.

Finally, Dedication by being a Combine monster!!

The other picks are great plays on value…so much so that it feels awkward almost.

As always, Outstanding work LT.

Interestingquestion, besides Nashville and Anaheim, what team would have the best top 4 in the NHL?

I’m reading that Yammamoto has blazing speed all over the place.

I spent the entire spring yelling at the Oilers to draft Yammamoto and Skinner, and I was constantly arguing with people on this blog about Yammamoto’s skating in particular. Looks like that is turning a corner now, I’m happy to see it.

Still can’t believe no one took Bellerive though. 27 goal 3C with minimal PP time and centering the 1PK unit. Crazy. Oh, and he fights a lot.

rickithebear

Ryan:
Wood money Argued against my Hd theory and situational means for years until they got what i was teaching years later.

Dff% is a complete failed understanding of were dman affect is and were the baseline measure starts.

HD theory period.
Situational mean period.

These are partials of true hockey analytics

Vegas has the best d depth in the league!

1st comp
N. Schmidt #8 Hd dman 1.67; #43 .64 eva60 dman
Methot #70 hd dman 2.08; #110 .50 eva60 dman

2nd comp
Mcnabb #1 hd dman 1.54; #61 .58 EVA60 dman
Sbisa #43 hd dman 1.97; #150 .40 EVA60 dman
C. Miller #52 hd dman 2.03; #99 .52 EVA60 dman
Emelin #52 hd dman 2.03; #129 .45 EVA60 dman
Garrison #60 HD dman 2.05; #110 .50 EVA60 dman

3 rd comp
Stoner #3 HD dman 1.62; #152 EVA60 dman

gogliano

I think the C/RW depth chart will be a fluid one, with Strome and Draisatl both playing as C/RWs.

If a healthy Oilers have a gap on RW, it’s because they’re running McDavid-Draisatl-RNH down the middle. Not many teams can handle that trio of centers regardless of who is playing RW. If they don’t, it’s because they’re using the McDavid-Draisatl pair — perhaps the best duo in the NHL at the moment. Chia and McLellan are creating a system with optionality. That was part of the logic of the Strome pickup, I think.

The clear winner in the Eberle move is JP, who must be close to a lock to make the NHL roster at this point.

admiralmark

Ryan: Many stats guys would argue that Benning is far ahead of Nurse.

So you’re going to play the inferior player on the top pairing and the better player on the third pairing?

What happened when Sekera went down in the playoffs? Nurse-Larsson. I thought they played well in a very difficult high min’s on the road game. But i admit it was just 1 game. Not sure if they played together much otherwise? Also I like Benning when he was playing his best but after the injury results were inconsistent. I’m not saying it’s a slam dunk only that they looked quite well together so I would at least look at it in the pre-season as an option.

Alpine

Professor Q: I’d rather have Russell, Yamamoto, and Strome than Hamonic.

Professor Q: I’d rather have Russell, Yamamoto, and Strome than Hamonic.

Yamamoto is not being drafted next year so you could have him and Hamonic.

Ryan

admiralmark:
Am I the only one that liked Nurse-Larsson when they played together? I thought they were rather effective and Nurse didnt look out of place. Albeit they weren’t together that much. But perhaps the year could start with:

Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Russell
?FA? – Benning

Many stats guys would argue that Benning is far ahead of Nurse.

So you’re going to play the inferior player on the top pairing and the better player on the third pairing?

Professor Q

Diablo: Please post the link to that … otherwise all summer we will hear an endless loop about how all we needed to do was add a first to Eberle for Harmonic.

I’d rather have Russell, Yamamoto, and Strome than Hamonic.

leadfarmer

If McDavid Nuge and Strome are our centers we are saying screw faceoffs again next year

admiralmark

Am I the only one that liked Nurse-Larsson when they played together? I thought they were rather effective and Nurse didnt look out of place. Albeit they weren’t together that much. But perhaps the year could start with:

Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Russell
?FA? – Benning

Diablo

treevojo: Just read that snow turned down Van reimsdyck and 2018 1st for hamonic.

Looks like Snow didn’t want any salary in return.

Please post the link to that … otherwise all summer we will hear an endless loop about how all we needed to do was add a first to Eberle for Harmonic.

Kinger_Oil.redux

rickithebear:

Russel – Larson (1st comp)
Klefbom – benning (2nd)

– 3rd:

Nurse-Gryba,

– They were CF% over 52% (even though I hate that stat),

– Gryba’s main partner was Nurse last year (288 mins)

– They trust Gryba with Nurse

– Kind of a Dog’s breakfast, but they could make it work, waiting for Sek

– Then give Osterle/Simpson/Paigin/last minute pick up a chance