OILERS SIGN KASSIAN, QUALIFY FOUR

by Lowetide

Peter Chiarelli made a helluva trade to acquire Zack Kassian in 2015 and he followed it up with a terrific contract for the big man today. Kassian signed a three-year deal worth a total of $5.85M, making the cap hit $1.95 million per season. That represents a nice saving off some estimates (I thought it might take $2.2 million) and helps the cap crunch while securing Kassian through the end of the decade.

ZACK KASSIAN 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.74 (5th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 0.00 (just six minutes on the 5×4)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 47.6
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -1.7
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 44.4
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -3.9 (30 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 110 shots/6.4%
  • Boxcars: 79gp, 7-17-24
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

Kassian scored goals that didn’t count a lot this past season, suspect he could have landed with 12-15 with even normal luck. We talk often about value contracts on this blog, I think Kassian’s new deal has an excellent chance to be one next season. In fact, I’ll list Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon, Matt Benning and Anton Slepyshev as locks for this category, along with Kassian. That’s five. Oilers need Drake Caggiula, Darnell Nurse and or Jesse Puljujarvi to emerge as value deals.

QUALIFYING OFFERS

  • LC Leon Draisaitl. A fantastic season in 2016-17 has him in a very good spot for the negotiations and I’m estimating $7.5 million per year if the club and player go long on a deal. The second most valuable player on the roster.
  • L Joey Laleggia. His spike in goal-scoring in the AHL is an underrated portion of the Oilers season (prospects division). From Boxing Day forward, he went 43gp, 18-13-31. Moved to wing from defense and kick-started his career.
  • LD Dillon Simpson. Another season, another bunch of higher picks passed by Dillon Simpson. He’s outlasted all of the 2010 and 2011 draft picks (defense division) save for Oscar Klefbom. Likely an early callup option from Bakersfield.
  • LC Bogdan Yakimov. I’d long since taken him off the RFA list, for me has was a forgotten prospect. There are some things to like about him, including a 51.9 faceoff percentage (in about 400 sorties). He went 50gp, 3-8-11 and averaged 10:10 a night (1.30 per 60, all disciplines) and all of his goals were even strength. I think they may have qualified him in order to keep his rights, maybe another team is interested and was hoping he would go free. Yakimov looked like an NHL player to me at his training camps, but I’m no expert.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST

  • I’m not sure if Yakimov counts on the 50-man if there is no contract, so we’ll call it 38 or 39 at this time. Still mountains of room on the list.
  • With the qualifying of Leon Draisaitl, the roster begins to take shape and we can see the battles on the way. Jesse Puljujarvi, you have a gigantic chance here young man!
  • Eric Gryba is rumored to be a player of interest for Edmonton, I think we’re looking at more than one addition before this time next week.

OILERS FREE AGENTS

  • Sail on, David Musil. I hope you find a place in the sun.
  • I would have all kinds of time for Tyler Pitlick and Jordan Oesterle.
  • As mentioned, Eric Gryba is the most likely player on this list to get an Oilers contract.
  • Matt Hendricks: You are a man! I’ll never forget the night against Florida where Taylor Hall took a very dangerous hit that appeared to target the head. Hendricks stepped up in that moment and later in the game gave a borderline hit of his own to send a message. I’m not a man to go Sean Connery-in-the-Untouchables, but sometimes you need to man up on these things. Matt Hendricks is a game rooster, that I’ll tell you from this day to my last one.

Tomorrow: I’ll run the numbers with Kassian in the fold and we’ll talk about the most recent rumors, including Gryba and Spencer Foo.

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Truth

Mr. D.:
Things against Edmonton signing good free agent D.
NO term
Need to overpay
Shitty winters..wives hate it..fact!
Not much for a budget.
Taxes in Canada suck plus 16% NHL escrow makes it unattractive compared to many US states.
Thinges for:
Conner…

Firstly, it’s Connor.

Need to overpay? Connor, one game from being in the WCF last season.

Wives hate cold? Wive’s love million dollar salaries. Who doesn’t hate cold? I surely wouldn’t spend my winters in Edmonton if I had a job that had flexibility and paid enough for me to be at the beach 6 months per year, but that’s life. If your occupation is NHL hockey player I think first you count your lucky stars, then be concerned about being cold (in your million dollar mansion).

No term? I don’t think the Oilers are looking for a Shattenkirk. As LT has mentioned a player like Franson is probably a good target. His last 5 contracts? 2 yrs, 1 yr, 1 yr, 1 yr, 2 yrs. Someone looking to play a prominent role for one season in the hopes to cash in the following season is the ideal candidate, a la Russell.

Budget is known, and they’re not big game hunting anyway.

Taxes suck, that much I agree.

Mr. D.

Things against Edmonton signing good free agent D.
NO term
Need to overpay
Shitty winters..wives hate it..fact!
Not much for a budget.
Taxes in Canada suck plus 16% NHL escrow makes it unattractive compared to many US states.
Thinges for:
Conner…

Truth

I wish Woodguy was still around here. Colin Miller. What are his fancy stats like? They appear to be excellent, but what do I know.

With the Methot trade it sure appears that the Knights are having some difficulty unloading the plethora of D they acquired in the entry draft. Miller is one of only two RD they drafted so I doubt they want to lose him but it would be worth a shot. If he could be had for a 2020 pick that isn’t a first, and he’s near as good as what I believe his numbers make him look, Chiarelli should be all over that.

Pouzar

dustrock: and Marleau, if Pat is willing to take a 1 year.

Not shooting the messenger here but that is absurd. PM seems like a very fine individual but he would absolutely tell the Oilers to GFT on a 1 year offer. He is 37 showing and showing no signs of slowing down with 4 straight seasons of 82 games scoring 33, 19, 25, and 27 goals respectively.
He should be their #1 target imo.

dustrock

Take it with 10 grains of salt but someone at HFB told the mods his bona fides and said Oilers free agent targets are: Stone, Brian Boyle, Gagner, and Marleau, if Pat is willing to take a 1 year.

slopitch

Bridge Leon (5.5×2) he still owes us for playing him the extra games his rookie season (I kid) and sign Joe Thornton for 1 year 4.5 mill. That leaves us a RHD shy of LT’s balance photo.

Pescador

JDI: Because it’s so fresh in your memory?

I am only 21 after all

JD_Wry

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-methot-improves-dallas-defence-1.789827

It would be quicker to write about who wouldn’t improve Dallas’ defence. ?!

Chachi

Pescador: This reminds me of the time I lost my virginity

HA!

Chachi

JDI: It’s Cannon Ball Run meets Mad Max, wrapped up in a cop drama, with explicit sex scenes.

What’s not to hate/like?

Sounds like a hit!

JD_Wry

Pescador: This reminds me of the time I lost my virginity

Because it’s so fresh in your memory?

Pescador

Chachi: Is it worth mentioning the sample size on this is laughably small?

This reminds me of the time I lost my virginity

who

Love the Kassian signing. Would really like to see him get a chance with one of the top three centers. Maybe Nuge if that is who is getting the tough match ups.

JD_Wry

Chachi: on the list.

It’s Cannon Ball Run meets Mad Max, wrapped up in a cop drama, with explicit sex scenes.

What’s not to hate/like?

Chachi

JDI: Have you seen the series Blood Drive on the SyFy channel?

No I have not, but I have seen a few commercials and it’s definitely on the list.

JD_Wry

Chachi: Oh my that is a delightfully bad movie.

Have you seen the series Blood Drive on the SyFy channel?

Chachi

JDI: Awww… now I’m going to have to look up Face Off (Nick Cage) on Kodi tonight.

Oh my that is a delightfully bad movie.

MrEd

How much does Leon take to bridge?

Chachi

frjohnk:
I know some are seeing a Lucic-Draisaitl-Sleppy line.

In the playoffs this year.

CF% With Drai
Milan Lucic37.74
Anton Slepyshev34.15

FF% With Drai
Milan Lucic34.94
Anton Slepyshev33.33

SF% With Drai
Milan Lucic29.03
Anton Slepyshev29.79

GF% With Drai
Milan Lucic50
Anton Slepyshev50

ScoringChanceFor% With Drai
Milan Lucic36.54
Anton Slepyshev26.32

HighDangerCorsiFor% With Drai
Milan Lucic41.67
Anton Slepyshev35.29

Outshot, out scoring chanced big time. Ice was severely tilted towards the Oiler end with these 3 as a line. But goal for%was 50%.But that was buoyed as a line which had a 27% shooting percentage and a 96% save percentage.Their PDO was completely off the charts at 123.7!!!!!!!!!

Yes, that’s right their PDO was 123.7!!!!Must have been playing with Russell

Is it worth mentioning the sample size on this is laughably small?

Ryan

John Chambers: Colorado has been failing massively.

They’ve needed to plug several holes and have gotten nothing, while buying out Beauchemin.

Couldn’t even get a 4rth for Grigorenko.

https://milehighsticking.com/2017/06/26/colorado-avalanche-choosing-not-qualify-mikhail-grigorenko-tomfoolery/

JD_Wry

John Chambers: Colorado has been failing massively.

It’ll be alright after they trade Duchene!

John Chambers

Ryan: Well Methot iirc had a limited no trade clause that included all Canadian teams except Ottawa.

You would think Colorado could’ve offered up more.

Colorado has been failing massively.

They’ve needed to plug several holes and have gotten nothing, while buying out Beauchemin.

Ryan

Ducey: The prospect is a 7th round goalie from Saturday. The pick is in 2020. Panicking is right.

Wait until the free agent merry-go-round stops and drive a harder bargain George.

Well Methot iirc had a limited no trade clause that included all Canadian teams except Ottawa.

You would think Colorado could’ve offered up more.

JD_Wry

Gerta Rauss: Can she win a face off..?

Awww… now I’m going to have to look up Face Off (Nick Cage) on Kodi tonight.

highgloveside

Great contract for Kassian. I like the 3 year term since he is young and by that time they will have some prospects come up at $1 mill a year, the Oilers don’t have that nw.

Very happy it is for under $2 mill a year. Over $2 mill is too much for a 4th liner winger who can bump up to 3rd line.

Pescador

godot10:
Ron Hainsey

Ya, eydonno.
I hear he played a ton of games without ever making it to the playoffs.
We need winners

frjohnk

I know some are seeing a Lucic-Draisaitl-Sleppy line.

In the playoffs this year.

CF% With Drai
Milan Lucic 37.74
Anton Slepyshev 34.15

FF% With Drai
Milan Lucic 34.94
Anton Slepyshev 33.33

SF% With Drai
Milan Lucic 29.03
Anton Slepyshev 29.79

GF% With Drai
Milan Lucic 50
Anton Slepyshev 50

ScoringChanceFor% With Drai
Milan Lucic 36.54
Anton Slepyshev 26.32

HighDangerCorsiFor% With Drai
Milan Lucic 41.67
Anton Slepyshev 35.29

Outshot, out scoring chanced big time. Ice was severely tilted towards the Oiler end with these 3 as a line. But goal for% was 50%. But that was buoyed as a line which had a 27% shooting percentage and a 96% save percentage. Their PDO was completely off the charts at 123.7!!!!!!!!!

Yes, that’s right their PDO was 123.7!!!! Must have been playing with Russell 🙂

Ducey

Blackwolf:
Vegas must be panicking.Methot to Dallas for a 2nd and a prospect

The prospect is a 7th round goalie from Saturday. The pick is in 2020. Panicking is right.

Wait until the free agent merry-go-round stops and drive a harder bargain George.

frjohnk

jake70:
From general memory some of the best hockey Malkin has played has been when Crosby was out. Like I posted the other night, Draisaitl’s contract is the one that concerns me most. Can Draisaitl be a Malkin or even Malkin light?Just don’t think we have enough evidence over time to support that and to paying him a boatload makes me nervous.

I’m expecting, hoping, praying, Draisaitl will be able to drive his own line, ( my eyes tell me he will) but last years numbers away from McDavid were, well here are the splits.

Draisaitl played 670 minutes with McDavid and had
2.24 pts per 60,
Goals For% 59.4%
Corsi For% 53.7%
Shot Attempts from the slot For% 59.%

Draisaitl away from McDavid 501 minutes
1.79 pts per 60
Goals For% 44.2%
Corsi For% 47.9%
Shot Attempts from the slot For% 43.5%

Steve4

Bank Shot,

Absolutely no way cags or slepy sign for 1.5 x 3. They are both on the cusp of emerging as good players. If they don’t improve this season they will get 1mil+ next year. If they emerge as 35+ point players they will get $2mil+ for 2-3 years. They would leave piles of cash on the table by accepting 1.5×3.

Everyone would sign both Nurse and Benning for $2×4yrs. Absolutely no way they sign, for the same reason the forwards won’t.

Strome is the only one who offers a worthy gamble for the team AND valuable security for the player. I think Strome is unlikely to be much more than a $3mil player next year, nor likely to be much less than one. $3×2 offers him security against catastrophic injury, while offering the team some cost control in the event of a 30 goal breakout on Mcdavids wing.

€√¥£€^$

I remember looking closely at Postma, I think he could be had on a reasonable contract. He was dragged down by his partners. I don’t know 100% how well he skates, but he has good size and I think he is more.mobile than Gryba. He would be my 3 RHD/7D value target.

jake70

From general memory some of the best hockey Malkin has played has been when Crosby was out. Like I posted the other night, Draisaitl’s contract is the one that concerns me most. Can Draisaitl be a Malkin or even Malkin light? Just don’t think we have enough evidence over time to support that and to paying him a boatload makes me nervous.

Chachi

Gerta Rauss: Can she win a face off..?

Apparently she played hockey in University, so, yes?

jp

Lowetide:
Wrote about sam Gagner as a RW option
https://oilersnation.com/2017/06/26/right-wing-samwise/

The more I think about it the more Sam seems like a perfect Eberle replacement. Had no idea he was scoring well 5×5 too. Plus he could help with right side draws.

What would you consider affordable?

theres oil in virginia

Lowetide: Cody Franson. You all hate the suggestion.

Your mind games won’t work on us! (I’ll leave you to ponder why not…)

theres oil in virginia

Lowetide:
Wrote about sam Gagner as a RW option
https://oilersnation.com/2017/06/26/right-wing-samwise/

This could, in a very weird way, fulfill a Woodguy Prophecy.

theres oil in virginia

Gerta Rauss: Can she win a face off..?

Strong side only.

Gerta Rauss

Chachi:
Something I didn’t know until today: Nick Bonino’s wife is from St. Albert.

Can she win a face off..?

Chachi

Something I didn’t know until today: Nick Bonino’s wife is from St. Albert.

admiralmark

Count me in as one that would take another look at Yakimov if his headspace is back in the game. He played well when this team was still a dumpster fire. I wonder how he’d do playing on this version of the Oilers.

Rich M

godot10:
Ron Hainsey

More mobile than Gryba, plays with an edge. Could live with this over Franson.

godot10

Ron Hainsey

VOR

Rondo,

Thanks for the links. Sure sounds like both Stone and Franson will be out of the Oilers price range.

Pescador

Rondo,

Thanks boss

Doug McLachlan

Any interest in Darren Raddysh RHD 20 year-old from Erie?

Pescador

Lowetide: Cody Franson. You all hate the suggestion.

I will not hate anything that Chiarelli does to improve this club.
How’s that for vague?

Pescador

VOR,

I like M. Stone. Decent stop gap not blocking any Bennings,
Woodmoney’s?

VOR

Franson will probably want three million. If you can sign him for less do it.