OILERS SIGN KASSIAN, QUALIFY FOUR
Peter Chiarelli made a helluva trade to acquire Zack Kassian in 2015 and he followed it up with a terrific contract for the big man today. Kassian signed a three-year deal worth a total of $5.85M, making the cap hit $1.95 million per season. That represents a nice saving off some estimates (I thought it might take $2.2 million) and helps the cap crunch while securing Kassian through the end of the decade.
ZACK KASSIAN 2016-17
- 5×5 points per 60: 1.74 (5th among regular forwards)
- 5×4 points per 60: 0.00 (just six minutes on the 5×4)
- Corsi for 5×5 %: 47.6
- Corsi Rel 5×5 %: -1.7
- DFF Elite 5×5 %: 44.4
- DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -3.9 (30 percent of TOI v. elites)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 110 shots/6.4%
- Boxcars: 79gp, 7-17-24
- (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
- Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s
Kassian scored goals that didn’t count a lot this past season, suspect he could have landed with 12-15 with even normal luck. We talk often about value contracts on this blog, I think Kassian’s new deal has an excellent chance to be one next season. In fact, I’ll list Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon, Matt Benning and Anton Slepyshev as locks for this category, along with Kassian. That’s five. Oilers need Drake Caggiula, Darnell Nurse and or Jesse Puljujarvi to emerge as value deals.
QUALIFYING OFFERS
- LC Leon Draisaitl. A fantastic season in 2016-17 has him in a very good spot for the negotiations and I’m estimating $7.5 million per year if the club and player go long on a deal. The second most valuable player on the roster.
- L Joey Laleggia. His spike in goal-scoring in the AHL is an underrated portion of the Oilers season (prospects division). From Boxing Day forward, he went 43gp, 18-13-31. Moved to wing from defense and kick-started his career.
- LD Dillon Simpson. Another season, another bunch of higher picks passed by Dillon Simpson. He’s outlasted all of the 2010 and 2011 draft picks (defense division) save for Oscar Klefbom. Likely an early callup option from Bakersfield.
- LC Bogdan Yakimov. I’d long since taken him off the RFA list, for me has was a forgotten prospect. There are some things to like about him, including a 51.9 faceoff percentage (in about 400 sorties). He went 50gp, 3-8-11 and averaged 10:10 a night (1.30 per 60, all disciplines) and all of his goals were even strength. I think they may have qualified him in order to keep his rights, maybe another team is interested and was hoping he would go free. Yakimov looked like an NHL player to me at his training camps, but I’m no expert.
CURRENT 50-MAN LIST
- I’m not sure if Yakimov counts on the 50-man if there is no contract, so we’ll call it 38 or 39 at this time. Still mountains of room on the list.
- With the qualifying of Leon Draisaitl, the roster begins to take shape and we can see the battles on the way. Jesse Puljujarvi, you have a gigantic chance here young man!
- Eric Gryba is rumored to be a player of interest for Edmonton, I think we’re looking at more than one addition before this time next week.
OILERS FREE AGENTS
- Sail on, David Musil. I hope you find a place in the sun.
- I would have all kinds of time for Tyler Pitlick and Jordan Oesterle.
- As mentioned, Eric Gryba is the most likely player on this list to get an Oilers contract.
- Matt Hendricks: You are a man! I’ll never forget the night against Florida where Taylor Hall took a very dangerous hit that appeared to target the head. Hendricks stepped up in that moment and later in the game gave a borderline hit of his own to send a message. I’m not a man to go Sean Connery-in-the-Untouchables, but sometimes you need to man up on these things. Matt Hendricks is a game rooster, that I’ll tell you from this day to my last one.
Tomorrow: I’ll run the numbers with Kassian in the fold and we’ll talk about the most recent rumors, including Gryba and Spencer Foo.
Can this team finally not have absurd loyalty to extra players?
Not talking about Kassian of course. He’s not an extra and they got a good price.
Simply signing Gryba when there will be options with a much higher possible ceiling out there for a song would be horrid, but sadly typical.
I’m fine with Gryba as 7D.
I’m starting to think, the more I play with the arm chair GM tool at cap friendly, that the Oilers might be wise to just get their guys signed and not go after a UFA.
Maybe sign someone late/after the season starts if need be. Then make addition at the deadline.
This may be the busiest summer in recent memory and the Oilers may have very little involment in it.
The Oilers do have 6 potentially significant RFAs coming due next year so I would be hesitant to take on any more contracts longer than 1 year unless it is a significant upgrade. This would probably need to be done through trade as the UFA market isn’t so hot.
In regards to the Oilers RFAs. I feel like it would be a good idea for Chiarelli to try extend a few of them besides McDavid this offseason so you don’t have eveyone to sign next summer, and you could potentially get a better deal on a player now, if you think they are going to take a another step in development:
Cagguila
Slepyshev
Strome
Benning
Nurse
Brossoit
Which if any of these RFAs should Chiarelli be looking to extend after July 1st?
What kind of contract length and term would you be comfortable giving to these guys after their last season?
I agree. I think they’ll go after college guys they like to flush out the ranks. They can sign a one year deal if they find one. They can acquire at the trade deadline to fill a need if the cost isn’t too high in picks, but even then when they take the lay of the land, if they feel there is a strong shot at the Cup the may spend picks and try to sort the fallout later.
A team should pull out the stops IF there is a legitimate shot, they aren’t guaranteed, but if it isn’t really the right shot it can hurt big time beaucoup later. Flames.
Yakupov Free Agent….Worth another chance?
Great deal on Kass. I had him budgeted for $2.5M on the high side.
If we can get Maroon for $3M or less we can keep the team core intact without having to trim anywhere else.
I’ll judge Chiarelli’s management of the cap based on whether RNH is able to stay. Eberle was the more expensive luxury of the two, Nuge is a critical piece to a championship roster.
You could try to sign the players with more regard and get them for less, there is risk and it can backfire with players being really underpaid, they are human and employees of a sort. For less established more outlying players it’s an idea, but not too long.
Genjutsu,
Exactly,
Maroon-McDavid-Strome
Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev
Caggiula-RNH-Kassian
Pouliot-Letestu-Pakarinen
Extra: Khaira
Klefbom-Larsson
Russell-Benning
Nurse-Fayne
Extra: Gryba
Talbot
Brossoit
Thats a pretty solid lineup and based on $7.5M for Draisaitl that leaves $9,461,333 in cap space for a 14th forward and lots of leeway at the deadline to trade for a rental or two. James Neal is a deadline luxury we could afford.
C. Folin just became available!
Let’s do this Pete
Cags, Slepy, Benny, and Nurse are not going to take less to sigb today.
Brossoit is unlikely to accrue any extra value so he isn’t worth signing early.
Strome may be a good bet to throw 2x3mil at. He has so much talent that he could price himself out of town. Whether he plays like a good 3C or he hits it off with LD or McD.
In addition to next years RFAs, the Oilers face Cap Hell. McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, RNH, Pouliot, Klefbom, Larsson, Talbot, Sekera and Russell occupy about $56.0 Million of that Cap. That’s just 10 players. The remaining 12 players need to fit into the $19.0 – possibly $22.0 Million remaining. When you must trade someone you get maybe a 10% return on value. So if Peter Chiarelli needs to clear Cap Space next year, he must start now. At least now he’ll get closer to fairer value in any trade.
Incidentally $56.25 Million is 75% of the Cap. Pouliot can’t stay. Russell could very well be gone after his second year. Those no trade clauses in Lucic and Sekera’s contract will bite Peter Chiarelli in the butt real soon. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a luxury the Oilers shouldn’t keep. This offseason will be fascinating.
Vegas must be panicking. Methot to Dallas for a 2nd and a prospect
Love the Kassian contract.
McDavid will cover his eventual cap hit with points, trophies, and merchandise.
Draisaitl at $7.5M to $8.5M is putting himself under tremendous pressure to perform. He must push the river on his own line and cannot afford a slump, injury, or setback at those dollars. The fans will turn on him.
Having a slow start? Fuck you, pay me!
Nagging hand injury? Fuck you, pay me!
Girlfriend’s been moody lately? Fuck you, pay me!
No discount. No mercy.
Don’t think Methot is that good personally.
– Great post LT! This BW is what I was asking when the consensus was LV would load up on D and run an auction: teams know they can only dress 6/7D, the rest won’t generate much of a return. , ’cause they are sellers of surplus!
– Although Dallas could have said: we will give you Eakin + 2nd, if you give us Methot
– There might be more LV “trades” like that to come…
Ok but this time he has to start in the AHL & get back up based on defensive play & merit.
nevermind.
Heard Gryba is very close to signing..but not in oil country.
Has to wait for July.
Ottawa must be seething. Curious George probably told them it would take a 1st and a prospect to leave him alone.
Gret99zky,
Always enjoy a good Goodfellas quote… Jimmy Two Times…two times…
I am a Sean Connery in the Untouchables kind of guy and that shift by Hendricks made me believe the Oilers had finally turned a corner as a team. I’ll never forget it.
I was, up to that point, so sick of seeing our guys get their brains scrambled by opponents and nobody doing anything about it; and no losing the game doesn’t count as doing something about it.
Seeing him crush their best player and fucking him up in the process made me believe the team finally had some sack which had been lacking for the better part of a decade.
Anyway, I don’t normally post here anymore but LT made me all nostalgic.
Please don’t trade RNh
HOP out✌️
Alright I’m in,
Got a name or 2?
You have a Million or 2 to spend, and it can only be a 1 or 2 year deal.
Am I doing this right?
Ya should a bushel of high ceiling guys available for no money no term.
Cody Franson. You all hate the suggestion.
Looks like the best option if your going to spend the money .
I agree on Brossoit.
I’m not sure guys like Cagguila or Slepyshev wouldn’t take a 3 year contract around $1.5 per season if offered today. Slepyshev has been a healthy scratch last year and that would be 3 years of guaranteed cash.
Would anyone do Nurse or Benning for 4 years for $2? Would you go higher? It’d be a risk that could pay off.
I’d be hesitant on Strome. Offering him $3+ may be one of those contracts you end up stuck with. He hasn’t really shown progression year over year.
Christian Folin, Paul Postma, Matt Tennyson, maybe Darren Dietz, Dan Girardi on a prove you can still play contract (probably too much money), Michael Stome on a last chance Texaco contract (probably still too much money), that is probably about it.
Franson will probably want three million. If you can sign him for less do it.
VOR,
I like M. Stone. Decent stop gap not blocking any Bennings,
Woodmoney’s?
I will not hate anything that Chiarelli does to improve this club.
How’s that for vague?
https://theleafsnation.com/2017/06/26/should-the-leafs-bring-back-cody-franson-2/
https://flamesnation.ca/2017/06/26/does-it-make-sense-for-michael-stone-to-come-back/
Any interest in Darren Raddysh RHD 20 year-old from Erie?
Rondo,
Thanks boss
Rondo,
Thanks for the links. Sure sounds like both Stone and Franson will be out of the Oilers price range.
Ron Hainsey
More mobile than Gryba, plays with an edge. Could live with this over Franson.
Wrote about sam Gagner as a RW option
https://oilersnation.com/2017/06/26/right-wing-samwise/
Count me in as one that would take another look at Yakimov if his headspace is back in the game. He played well when this team was still a dumpster fire. I wonder how he’d do playing on this version of the Oilers.
Something I didn’t know until today: Nick Bonino’s wife is from St. Albert.
Can she win a face off..?
Strong side only.
This could, in a very weird way, fulfill a Woodguy Prophecy.
Your mind games won’t work on us! (I’ll leave you to ponder why not…)
The more I think about it the more Sam seems like a perfect Eberle replacement. Had no idea he was scoring well 5×5 too. Plus he could help with right side draws.
What would you consider affordable?
Apparently she played hockey in University, so, yes?
From general memory some of the best hockey Malkin has played has been when Crosby was out. Like I posted the other night, Draisaitl’s contract is the one that concerns me most. Can Draisaitl be a Malkin or even Malkin light? Just don’t think we have enough evidence over time to support that and to paying him a boatload makes me nervous.
I remember looking closely at Postma, I think he could be had on a reasonable contract. He was dragged down by his partners. I don’t know 100% how well he skates, but he has good size and I think he is more.mobile than Gryba. He would be my 3 RHD/7D value target.
Bank Shot,
Absolutely no way cags or slepy sign for 1.5 x 3. They are both on the cusp of emerging as good players. If they don’t improve this season they will get 1mil+ next year. If they emerge as 35+ point players they will get $2mil+ for 2-3 years. They would leave piles of cash on the table by accepting 1.5×3.
Everyone would sign both Nurse and Benning for $2×4yrs. Absolutely no way they sign, for the same reason the forwards won’t.
Strome is the only one who offers a worthy gamble for the team AND valuable security for the player. I think Strome is unlikely to be much more than a $3mil player next year, nor likely to be much less than one. $3×2 offers him security against catastrophic injury, while offering the team some cost control in the event of a 30 goal breakout on Mcdavids wing.
I’m expecting, hoping, praying, Draisaitl will be able to drive his own line, ( my eyes tell me he will) but last years numbers away from McDavid were, well here are the splits.
Draisaitl played 670 minutes with McDavid and had
2.24 pts per 60,
Goals For% 59.4%
Corsi For% 53.7%
Shot Attempts from the slot For% 59.%
Draisaitl away from McDavid 501 minutes
1.79 pts per 60
Goals For% 44.2%
Corsi For% 47.9%
Shot Attempts from the slot For% 43.5%
The prospect is a 7th round goalie from Saturday. The pick is in 2020. Panicking is right.
Wait until the free agent merry-go-round stops and drive a harder bargain George.
I know some are seeing a Lucic-Draisaitl-Sleppy line.
In the playoffs this year.
CF% With Drai
Milan Lucic 37.74
Anton Slepyshev 34.15
FF% With Drai
Milan Lucic 34.94
Anton Slepyshev 33.33
SF% With Drai
Milan Lucic 29.03
Anton Slepyshev 29.79
GF% With Drai
Milan Lucic 50
Anton Slepyshev 50
ScoringChanceFor% With Drai
Milan Lucic 36.54
Anton Slepyshev 26.32
HighDangerCorsiFor% With Drai
Milan Lucic 41.67
Anton Slepyshev 35.29
Outshot, out scoring chanced big time. Ice was severely tilted towards the Oiler end with these 3 as a line. But goal for% was 50%. But that was buoyed as a line which had a 27% shooting percentage and a 96% save percentage. Their PDO was completely off the charts at 123.7!!!!!!!!!
Yes, that’s right their PDO was 123.7!!!! Must have been playing with Russell 🙂
Ya, eydonno.
I hear he played a ton of games without ever making it to the playoffs.
We need winners
Great contract for Kassian. I like the 3 year term since he is young and by that time they will have some prospects come up at $1 mill a year, the Oilers don’t have that nw.
Very happy it is for under $2 mill a year. Over $2 mill is too much for a 4th liner winger who can bump up to 3rd line.
Awww… now I’m going to have to look up Face Off (Nick Cage) on Kodi tonight.
Well Methot iirc had a limited no trade clause that included all Canadian teams except Ottawa.
You would think Colorado could’ve offered up more.
Colorado has been failing massively.
They’ve needed to plug several holes and have gotten nothing, while buying out Beauchemin.
It’ll be alright after they trade Duchene!
Couldn’t even get a 4rth for Grigorenko.
https://milehighsticking.com/2017/06/26/colorado-avalanche-choosing-not-qualify-mikhail-grigorenko-tomfoolery/
Is it worth mentioning the sample size on this is laughably small?
How much does Leon take to bridge?
Oh my that is a delightfully bad movie.
Have you seen the series Blood Drive on the SyFy channel?
No I have not, but I have seen a few commercials and it’s definitely on the list.
It’s Cannon Ball Run meets Mad Max, wrapped up in a cop drama, with explicit sex scenes.
What’s not to hate/like?
Love the Kassian signing. Would really like to see him get a chance with one of the top three centers. Maybe Nuge if that is who is getting the tough match ups.
This reminds me of the time I lost my virginity
Because it’s so fresh in your memory?
Sounds like a hit!
HA!
http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-methot-improves-dallas-defence-1.789827
It would be quicker to write about who wouldn’t improve Dallas’ defence. ?!
I am only 21 after all
Bridge Leon (5.5×2) he still owes us for playing him the extra games his rookie season (I kid) and sign Joe Thornton for 1 year 4.5 mill. That leaves us a RHD shy of LT’s balance photo.
Take it with 10 grains of salt but someone at HFB told the mods his bona fides and said Oilers free agent targets are: Stone, Brian Boyle, Gagner, and Marleau, if Pat is willing to take a 1 year.
Not shooting the messenger here but that is absurd. PM seems like a very fine individual but he would absolutely tell the Oilers to GFT on a 1 year offer. He is 37 showing and showing no signs of slowing down with 4 straight seasons of 82 games scoring 33, 19, 25, and 27 goals respectively.
He should be their #1 target imo.
I wish Woodguy was still around here. Colin Miller. What are his fancy stats like? They appear to be excellent, but what do I know.
With the Methot trade it sure appears that the Knights are having some difficulty unloading the plethora of D they acquired in the entry draft. Miller is one of only two RD they drafted so I doubt they want to lose him but it would be worth a shot. If he could be had for a 2020 pick that isn’t a first, and he’s near as good as what I believe his numbers make him look, Chiarelli should be all over that.
Things against Edmonton signing good free agent D.
NO term
Need to overpay
Shitty winters..wives hate it..fact!
Not much for a budget.
Taxes in Canada suck plus 16% NHL escrow makes it unattractive compared to many US states.
Thinges for:
Conner…
Firstly, it’s Connor.
Need to overpay? Connor, one game from being in the WCF last season.
Wives hate cold? Wive’s love million dollar salaries. Who doesn’t hate cold? I surely wouldn’t spend my winters in Edmonton if I had a job that had flexibility and paid enough for me to be at the beach 6 months per year, but that’s life. If your occupation is NHL hockey player I think first you count your lucky stars, then be concerned about being cold (in your million dollar mansion).
No term? I don’t think the Oilers are looking for a Shattenkirk. As LT has mentioned a player like Franson is probably a good target. His last 5 contracts? 2 yrs, 1 yr, 1 yr, 1 yr, 2 yrs. Someone looking to play a prominent role for one season in the hopes to cash in the following season is the ideal candidate, a la Russell.
Budget is known, and they’re not big game hunting anyway.
Taxes suck, that much I agree.