RANDY PIE

by Lowetide

I had an interesting conversation today, idea being the Oilers were pretty much done. Folks, I’m staring at the 50-man list and seeing 40 names, so that’s not it. What is going on here? Well sometimes it helps to see how both pro rosters (Edmonton and Bakersfield) are shaking out.

50-MAN LIST JUNE 28

The Oilers often run 47 or 48 deep on the 50-man, meaning we are going to see additions to this group. Who are they? Well, the cap number plus the fact Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl don’t have contracts tells us we are looking at less expensive options and possible mid-July options. College free agents and CHL grads may get NHL deals this year, too.

PROJECTED OILERS 2017-18

  • There are my lines and pairings, you may prefer another lineup. I did put Mark Fayne at 7D because that’s my guess about how things go. The one addition we could see on July 1 is a RHD, but if the 97-29 deals aren’t complete then even that is unlikely.
  • Amazing to be fairly certain about a roster this early in summer.
  • If you’re mad about quiet free agency, don’t be. Free agency is the king of pain.
  • I have no doubt we’ll see some tinkering around the edges, but the extra dollars we have talked about being used on July 1 will have to wait for the completion of the two big contracts.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2017-18

  • I think this is where we’ll see some action during July. College free agents (we talked about Teemu Kivihalme) junior players who are about to turn pro (Giorgio Estephan would be a sublime addition) or Euro players (Bogdan Yakimov is signed, Vladimir Tkachev) could all be part of things. Edmonton badly needs to be aggressive in procurement and there’s an opportunity to fill the organizational hat during this summer’s free-agent window.
  • It’s also probable we will see an AHL 1C and 1D added as a mentor. Jesse Puljujarvi could end up in the minors, need someone who can play at that level.

RANDY PIE

Ryan Rishaug is killing it during the draft/free agent weeks and this item qualifies as a bombshell. In this morning’s post I wrote the following:

  • If the McDavid news is true, and the rumored contract disconnect with Leon Draisaitl’s agent is also true, then it might be Leon going and Nuge staying. If LD wants $9.5M or 10M, Chiarelli needs to send him to St. Louis for Colton Parayko. RFN. Leon has to slide in behind at about $7.5 million, maybe on a bridge deal. Source

I think that’s about right, not sure the value Peter Chiarelli places on his big center. I threw $9.5 or $10 million out, that might have been high but who knows? If Leon comes in at $9 million that’s an overpay, in my opinion. I’m not suggesting you prepare for imminent departure of the big man, but the closer we get to Saturday might be an idea to check out Rishaug’s twitter page. I don’t see this lasting into next week one way or another.

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Ducey

Gaudreau didn’t sign until October….so hang on

As for offer sheets there are not likely to be a lot of teams able to make one once the dust settles July 1.

Grigorenko or Beau Bennett would be nice guys to add as 5th liners (AHL/ NHL call up options).

fifthcartel

I love Leon, but I’m not even sure I break $8 million for him. He had a great season but that was while playing with 97 at ES and PP.

What happens if he’s more of a 55-60 point player playing center full time and he’s also making $8.5m-9m?

I don’t even think it makes sense when you think about potential comparables.

Monahan had 2 60-point campaigns and got $6.375 x 7 years. Draisaitl had a better third year but it was split between C and RW on the greatest player in the league’s wing.

Scheifele had 61 points in 71 games (70-point pace) and got $6.125 x 8 years. Although Leon was a yer younger.

Leon should be ecstatic at $7.5, anything over $8 and I send him to Carolina/St. Louis.

speeds

Couple quick thoughts:

(1) LT, I think the Oilers will want to add Yamamoto to the signed group this fall whether he makes the team or not, as there is a CBA/ELC advantage to signing a player with a “late birthday” at 18 instead of 19.

(2) Rishaug’s two tweets are interesting.

I could see why the Oilers might not exactly love to read that. They could have sent him down after 9 GP his first year, in which case he’d still have a year left on his ELC. They also could have removed him from McDavid’s line, had him play C, both to see how it looked, and if it saved them Draisaitl’s bonus money, well, that wouldn’t have hurt the bottom line (and this year’s cap situation).

godot10

Ducey:
Gaudreau didn’t sign until October….so hang on

As for offer sheets there are not likely to be a lot of teams able to make one once the dust settles July 1.

Grigorenko or Beau Bennett would be nice guys to add as 5th liners (AHL/ NHL call up options).

Arizona, Rangers, and Devils all have space for a big offer sheet. Do they have the desire?

Carolina would be a trading partner candidate.

godot10

The alternative view on the handling of Draisaitl is that playing/guaranteeing 39 games put $400K walking around money in his pocket and burned a year of his ELC. He might have gone to Europe to play that season instead. i.e. MacT did him a favour.

However burning both with Puljujarvi, the year of the ELC and a year towards UFA, may have made Draisaitl think differently about how he was handled. Puljujarvi was granted two favours. Draisaitl only one.

Richard S.S.

I don’t like Bridge Deals. They tell everyone that the Team has doubts. That always makes the next deal bigger. Draisaitl might come in at $7.5 – $8.5 Million, but after a Bridge deal that becomes $$1.5 – $2.5 Million more.

Bad Seed

Lowetide,

The consensus here was that we were going to pay for that mistake and here we are.

jake70

Lowetide: Yeah. The problem is we don’t really know what he is yet. MacT’s handling of year one looks like it’ll be a chapter in ‘General Managing for Dummies’ in the years to come.

I agree. But weren’t there issues with Draisait’s junior team (he was traded immediately or very soon after being sent down)? If that’s the case, could it be argued they were trying to protect him from being in a toxic/bad situation on his junior team and it took until almost game 40 to get it solved?? Someone chime in to correct me or offer better information. In any case, if you wanted to send him down before game 10 you have to do it, find a way or this is where you end up at.

Pretendergast

godot10,

If the Devils want to offer sheet for 10, It’d be worth the consideration. Without a defence i doubt they get over the hump.

Worse in the now, 4 firsts that are potential lottery picks? If everyone’s okay with wasting a Mcdavid year sure, sign me up.

It’d be like the Kessel trade all over, Chia has done it.

The other 2 would be very bad news.

OriginalPouzar

With the rumored cap hits for these two, its looking no different that going shopping in the July 1 UFA market.

These speculated numbers are ludicrous!

Richard S.S.

Add up the top two Forwards, the top four Defense and your Goaltender Cap Hits. It cannot exceed 60% of the Cap. If it does, someone in that group must go. Those numbers say Draisaitl can be paid $9.8 Million. Should he be paid that much? I don’t really know. I just know that savings from this group lets another player get signed. Khaira or Benning, a little more money can go a long way.

Diablo

This narrative that the Oilers are “done” making moves is a bit narrow minded.
Wouldn’t it be more accurate to say that “the Oilers will not be participants in the annual orgy of excessiveness that occurs on July 1st”?

With McDavid and Draisaitl’s extensions coming due, the Oilers are going to have to shop in the bargain bin of UFA, which is not established until well after all the big money signings have happened.

I think we’ll see the Oilers circle back to the remaining vets looking to catch on with an NHL team (and willing to lower their asking price to do so) once all the other teams have blown their cap space.

Its not as exciting, but is much more financially prudent.

speeds

Diablo:

Its not as exciting, but is much more financially prudent.

They already went into the UFA market with Russell.

Diablo

Richard S.S.:
I don’t like Bridge Deals. They tell everyone that the Team has doubts.That always makes the next deal bigger.Draisaitl might come in at $7.5 – $8.5 Million, but after a Bridge deal that becomes $$1.5 – $2.5 Million more.

If getting paid 6 million per season is somehow taken by the player as “the team has doubts”, then that player either has an overly inflated ego or an incredibly fragile one.

Diablo

speeds: They already went into the UFA market with Russell.

See …. not very exciting ;-P

Scungilli Slushy

An offer sheet at what it would take to get him to sign would probably make the Oilers a better team in the long run. Much deeper, especially from a weak team. I don’t think the Devils have the internal budget for it though.

But you roll with it. I don’t think Draisaitl has the upside to match that big an overpay, and four firsts is a lot of chips or a lot of quality when drafting is solid. Pry a centre out of Colorado.

Duchene will score as much as Drai on a McDavid team.

I don’t want to see it, I also don’t want issues on the back burner and selfish players tarnishing a good thing, especially if they can’t cover th bet.

Richard S.S.

The McDavid Contract is long-term cost certainty at a fair and equitable price. His Cap Hit next year is amazing. This is a fun time of year.

russ99

An offer sheet is a non starter. We’d match whatever the offer, then deal him or more likely others afterwards.

Taking the picks would set back this franchise ar least three years. Two of which we’re paying McDavid roughly $14M

The other part is Leon has to sign the offer sheet, and I don’t see him burning bridges with this team yet. He has to prefer staying and playing on a team with McDavid to alternatives.

Any possibility of arbitration to one of our QOs to open up a post June 30th buyout window for Pouliot?

Glass

I was hoping for like 11.5 for mcdavid and 6.75 for drai but it looks like both are getting much bigger raises. How’s that Russell contract looking now… lol

(Not that I hate him, but I see him as a bottom pairing guy after this year)

Scungilli Slushy

russ99:
An offer sheet is a non starter. We’d match whatever the offer, then deal him or more likely others afterwards.

Taking the picks would set back this franchise ar least three years. Two of which we’re paying McDavid roughly $14M

The other part is Leon has to sign the offer sheet, and I don’t see him burning bridges with this team yet. He has to prefer staying and playing on a team with McDavid to alternatives.

Any possibility of arbitration to one of our QOs to open up a post June 30th buyout window for Pouliot?

10M in cap space gives options. They could sign Williams and a centre and have money left. They could trade Leon for a centre and a defenseman and be better overall. He’s a great young player, but he’s not that good. The right return if push comes to shove may be a benefit in the long run. Trading Lindros for enough of a haul made the Avs, won Cups.

russ99

Russell got a 900k raise. Big whoop.

Glass

russ99,

It kind of is a big whoop, because him and his $4m cap hit will be slotted into the 3rd line after this season due to Nurse & Benning continuing to progress. Both of which are up for new contracts at the end of this season.

speeds

Scungilli Slushy: 10M in cap space gives options. They could sign Williams and a centre and have money left. They could trade Leon for a centre and a defenseman and be better overall. He’s a great young player, but he’s not that good. The right return of push comes to shove may be a benefit in the long run. Reading Lindros for enough of a haul made the Avs, won Cups.

If they got 4 1sts and it was from a non-playoff team, who knows, could always end up with a top 3 pick out of one of the 4 1sts as well as have the money to spend. Certainly possible that in hindsight the team would prefer to have matched on Draisaitl, also possible the picks and cap space could be preferable, depending which team signs him, and if an offer sheet occurred before or after most of the potential replacement players are already signed.

Bag of Pucks

Wonder if the Ted Lindsay factored into Connor’s negotiation as well? Pretty hard to argue the player shouldn’t be paid like the best in the game when his peers are voting him that title.

Bank Shot

If Draisaitl won’t take less than $8 maybe you trade him and Russel for Duchene and Barrie and call it a day.

speeds

Lowetide,

you’re counting chickens either way.

Ribs

russ99: Taking the picks would set back this franchise ar least three years. Two of which we’re paying McDavid roughly $14M

I dunno, setting McDavid up with 4 (cheap) first rounders to play with and signing Joe Thornton (1 year removed from a point per game season) to a short term deal might be okay…

Bag of Pucks

Sure, $105 million sounds like a lot of dosh, but what does the benefits package and pension look like? More to a compensation package than just the salary don’t you know ; )

I tell ya, nothing like the feeling of 20 year old blowing your lifetime earnings out of the water to make one feel inadequate. On the plus side, 9 more years minimum to watch Hockey Jesus.

Btw Connor, get serious about the birth control. The wrong puck bunny can turn that 105 into 52.5 in no time flat. Word to the wise.

Bag of Pucks

If Leon wants $9mil, I trade RNH to make room before I trade Leon.

This Leon being zoomed meme is getting tired. Kid was making plays all over the ice in the playoffs with and without McDavid. Are we forgetting the hattrick game after they were separated?

godot10

Pretendergast:
godot10,

If the Devils want to offer sheet for 10, It’d be worth the consideration. Without a defence i doubt they get over the hump.

Worse in the now, 4 firsts that are potential lottery picks? If everyone’s okay with wasting a Mcdavid year sure, sign me up.

It’d be like the Kessel trade all over, Chia has done it.

The other 2 would be very bad news.

The offer sheet will be $9.8 million…which is two firsts, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

And the Devils would likely add Shattentkirk too.

godot10

russ99:
Russell got a 900k raise. Big whoop.

He got a no move and FOUR effing years.

N64

russ99: Any possibility of arbitration to one of our QOs to open up a post June 30th buyout window for Pouliot?

Yes. Draisaitl if no deal or bridge.

Scungilli Slushy

Drai 10M
Nuge 6M

Duchene 6M
Faulk 4.8M

Drai for Duchene
Nuge for Faulk

16 out 14.8 in. I think the team is better. Play Pouliot with Duchene and sell him for whatever you can get when he scores a bit.

Better or worse?

godot10

Lowetide: Ah, counting our chickens is a bad idea. Especially with defensemen. The Russell contract became reality once Sekera was injured. I would have aimed higher, but the coach likes Russell and the team had 103 points. Someday general managers will employ no defensive defensemen but I think the Oilers won’t be the first team to do it.

Belichek liked most of the players he said sayonara too because they asked for two much money or too much duration. In Russell’s case too much duration.

Chiarellli should know better coming from the same town as Belichek and Epstein.

A good coach has to be able to coach up and utilize stop gaps, rather than be lazy and force the GM into cap hell.

They effing made Russell a medium term core player…a 3rd pairing D as a core player. That is insanity.

Bag of Pucks

godot10: Belichek liked most of the players he said sayonara too because they asked for two much money or too much duration.In Russell’s case too much duration.

Chiarellli should know better coming from the same town as Belichek and Epstein.

A good coach has to be able to coach up and utilize stop gaps, rather than be lazy and force the GM into cap hell.

They effing made Russell a medium term core player…a 3rd pairing D as a core player.That is insanity.

The contract is structured to make it more tradeable the longer he’s here. That doesn’t sound like core to me.

Bank Shot

Bag of Pucks:
If Leon wants $9mil, I trade RNH to make room before I trade Leon.

This Leon being zoomed meme is getting tired. Kid was making plays all over the ice in the playoffs with and without McDavid. Are we forgetting the hattrick game after they were separated?

Draisaitl shot 27% in the playoffs.

Remember that breakaway goal where he whiffed on the puck and it still went into the net?

He played well, but he was certainly getting the breaks too.

If the Oilers pay up for PLAYOFF BEAST Draisaitl I suspect we will all end up disappointed.

I hope I’m wrong, but its a concern.

Gordies Elbow

One thing to note – the number’s around McDavid’s extension are being reported on as a fact, when in reality, they are purely speculation.

“Not done yet,” McDavid’s agent, Jeff Jackson of the Orr Hockey Group, told TSN, declining to comment further.

Until the deal is signed, sealed, and delivered/registered with the league, it’s just talk.

godot10

Bag of Pucks: The contract is structured to make it more tradeable the longer he’s here. That doesn’t sound like core to me.

It is a no move contract. Russell just has to name 10 and then 15 teams (pretty easy to do) that have no use for him, and its a no move. i.e Just put cap-strapped teams on the list.

All those trade covenants basically mean is that in years three and four, the Oilers won’t have to protect him if there is another expansion.

Bank Shot

godot10: It is a no move contract.Russell just has to name 10 and then 15 teams (pretty easy to do) that have no use for him, and its a no move.i.e Just put cap-strapped teams on the list.

All those trade covenants basically mean is that in years three and four, the Oilers won’t have to protect him if there is another expansion.

They could always move him to Bakersfield if he is unreasonable with his No Trade Clause. 😛

Scungilli Slushy

godot10: It is a no move contract.Russell just has to name 10 and then 15 teams (pretty easy to do) that have no use for him, and its a no move.i.e Just put cap-strapped teams on the list.

All those trade covenants basically mean is that in years three and four, the Oilers won’t have to protect him if there is another expansion.

I think the fact that Leon’s agent is being difficult informs us about the reality of managing people.

There are plenty of gripes behind the scenes. It isn’t cut and dried manouvering between demands, the cap, other GM’s, unexpected things like Leon’s agent being difficult.

To call things in absolutes doesn’t work in regular life , let alone the weird world of pro sports.

An overly hard line from the player, whom I am sure is highly coveted in the ‘biblical’ sense brings as much opportunity as harm.

Maybe Chiarelli knew it would happen, maybe he has a new world open up from the unexpected and he can walk through that door and end up in a better place.

LMHF#1

Bank Shot,

Using that breakaway goal as an example isn’t a good one. He’d have scored there either way.

Delen

I’m trembling at the thought of what could be happening to the future of this team if Chiarelli doesn’t figure out how to handle a negotiation. The Russell and Lucic contracts were tough pills to swallow, but I can understand the challenges that come when dealing with UFAs. However, Drai being an RFA means he should have none of the leverage, so I can’t see another overpayment being justified.

When you take a closer look at the future cap picture, you really get an idea of how scary things could potentially be:

Between Lucic, Russell and Sekera (lowest age: 29) is 21% ($15.5M until 2020-21) of our cap for the coming season. Assuming cap goes up to 77M in 2018-19, we sign McD to 13.25M and sign Drai to 8M; we’re talking 48% of our cap on 5 players. Add in the rest of the players and we will have tied up 82% (~63M) of our cap on 13 players with still Strome, Drake, Maroon, Nurse, Benning, LB, Pakarinen, Letestu, and at least 3 other bodies left to distribute the remaining $14M. Even if the cap goes up to 80M instead of 77M, which is unlikely, that’s still $17M to sign 10 NHL level players.

speeds

Bank Shot,

sounds like he has a NMC all 4 years for waiver purposes, but a trade list for yrs 3 and 4?

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/kris-russell

Scungilli Slushy

godot10: It is a no move contract.Russell just has to name 10 and then 15 teams (pretty easy to do) that have no use for him, and its a no move.i.e Just put cap-strapped teams on the list.

All those trade covenants basically mean is that in years three and four, the Oilers won’t have to protect him if there is another expansion.

Isn’t this a bit over the top? He is unmovable on a lower contract with a trade possibility? It’s not like Phaneuf or Weber.

LMHF#1

Bag of Pucks: The contract is structured to make it more tradeable the longer he’s here. That doesn’t sound like core to me.

But why would anyone trade for him when he’ll have fallen off the depth chart by then?

Mike

Is this not less of a problem if PC actually waited until the contracts for mcdavid and drai are finished before blowing anything of substance left on Russell. Further complicating a situation where you move out drai and run into Russell anchor NMC complicating a trade for a dman heavily.

Scungilli Slushy

LMHF#1: But why would anyone trade for him when he’ll have fallen off the depth chart by then?

That is far from a certainty in only two years, and how do you know Pete wouldn’t ask him to waive? He came in saying he could deal with Ference because he knew him etc etc.

Some things might not be ideal in our eyes but extreme reactions aren’t getting to the heart of the matter either.

LMHF#1

Scungilli Slushy: That is far from a certainty in only two years, and how do you know Pete wouldn’t ask him to waive? He came in saying he could deal with Ference because he knew him etc etc.

Some things might not be ideal in our eyes but extreme reactions aren’t getting to the heart of the matter either.

I don’t see how this is extreme.

Barring developmental and transactional stagnation, Russell will be a 6/7 in two years. Maybe less.