IT’S THE REAL THING: WOODMONEY!

by Lowetide

One of the things this blog can count among its real accomplishments: Some very smart people have passed this way over the years. Some have gone on to work for NHL teams, others embarked on media careers and still others decided to become successful.

I tend to think of the folks who come and visit in terms of their time of arrival. Some of you go back to my HF days and others commented on oilfans before the blogs explosion. I have enjoyed all comments over the years, from what now count 38, 187 different user names (5,200 are Woodguy trying to sign in on his phone though).

I have enjoyed visiting with all of you, and always wonder where you’ll end up. Not long ago, a few giant minds formed a hive and their work began to take shape as WoodMoney. Many of the people involved have commented here over the years (Ganesh “GMoney” Murdeshwar, Zsolt Munoz, Derek Blasutti, Darcy McLeod) have been working on a new website that may revolutionize publicly available analytics.

Put another way: This is a big damned deal. The site is here, and is called Puck IQ. I asked Woodguy over for a drink (I drank rye, he got water from the tap and cheese for the hand) and perhaps the conversation can serve as a tutorial. From here until the end, questions are me, answers are Darcy McLeod.

What can Puck IQ tell me that other sources (like http://Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com ) cannot?

The whole goal of the WoodMoney QoC rating system was to figure out how each NHL player did against the best and the worst opponents.

When GMoney and I used to discuss players together we knew we had to deflate the results for Dman or forward if he was getting 3rd pair or 4th line minutes minutes or inflate a 1st pairing Dman’s results because they played a lot against the best, but we didn’t know how much to inflate or deflate those results.

Both of us would pore over the game sheets and match ups to see who the coach was playing against the best and the worst.  You could see game by game that players would get better results vs the lesser opponents and worse results vs the better opponents.  Who you play against must matter, but we didn’t know how much it mattered.

Using puckiq you can see each player’s results against the 3 categories of forwards that we created, “Elite, Middle, and Gritensity”.  You can also see how much time they spent against each category of forward, so you can understand more fully about how they were deployed.

One of the first things I learned was that not all teams deploy their forward lines or Dpairs the same.  In 15/16 NJD absolutely buried Greene/Larsson by playing them against Elite Forwards 42% of the time and giving them a massive share of the defensive face off starts.  This allowed them to play the other two pair at about 27% vs Elite Forwards, so it was like they have a 1st pair and 2 3rd pairs.

Every team/coach is a little different on how they deploy their roster so you can’t just look at corsi or time on ice and figure you know which level of competition a player is playing.

The whole goal of WoodMoney was to figure out “generally accepted” categories for QoC and then check everyone’s results against those categories.  The players in the categories past the smell test and we think we now have information that is very useful.

We think the general NHL fan community would find this stuff interesting so Puckiq is making this information available to anyone who wants it.

How reliable are these metrics? Should I consider 250 minutes against elite competition a reliable sample size?

As always, the bigger the sample size the better.  I find 300 minutes is a good line in the sand as most results don’t vary a whole bunch when they past that, but there are always exceptions.

How do you decide who gets the ‘elite competition’ moniker?

Every forward who is considered “Elite” must meet all 4 of these criteria:

  • Points/60 must exceed 2.21 for all game states (not just 5v5)
  • Time on ice must exceed the 75 percentile for all forwards. The coach must not shelter them.
  • Relative Corsi must exceed the 40th The player can’t be a drag on possession.  We dropped it to 40 because some players play on great teams and good players like Malkin and Kane can actually have negative relative corsis.
  • Relative Dangerous Fenwick must exceed 40th The player can’t be a saloon door in their own end (Dman) and should drive pucks to the paint in the ozone (forward) Similar to the 3rd requirement, this one uses DFF or Dangerous Fenwick which is a shot metric that weights the “dangerousness” of each shot using shot location and shot type (slap, wrist, backhand, tip, etc)

Are these the metrics NHL teams would be using?

I’m not sure what NHL teams are using.  From what I’ve heard what they use can vary greatly from team to team.  Some team might have done something similar, but I wouldn’t know.

Do they pass the logic test? I mean, does Patrice Bergeron perform well against elites?

“Passing the smell test” was very important to us.  The whole reason we did this was because the fancystats community had decided that QoC didn’t matter, and that didn’t past the smell test.  Patrice Bergeron has the best relative corsi vs Elite forwards in the NHL last year and the 2nd best relative DFF.  McDavid had the best relative DFF.   Smells good.

Do you look at the middle and lower bins? What are you looking for when measuring play against mid-level competition? Should I take my team’s second and third line and measure them against the mid-level (to make things even)?

I think the lower categories are still important.  Our original idea was to see “who was doing well vs The Best?” and “who was zooming their numbers by playing the dregs?”  All results are important so it’s best to examine all of them to get a full picture of the player.

Lastly, we are not anyone “why” a player got the results they did.  There are still tons of grey areas in that respect and just because a player got a result it doesn’t mean the reason they got that particular result is easy to figure out.

To help that part of the process along one of the first things we are going to add WOWY, which are “with and without you” data.  It’s the same data, but you can take a player and disassemble their results even further by giving the results they get with each team mate.

I’m very pleased to help with the launch and want to congratulate all (Ganesh “GMoney” Murdeshwar, Zsolt Munoz, Derek Blasutti, Darcy McLeod) gentlemen for their accomplishment. Ganesh and Darcy are manning their twitter machines to answer your analytics and theory questions, Zsolt and Derek make this thing shine and can help you to move the giant levers. Ready, set, go! PUCK IQ!

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dawgbone

Bag of Pucks,

Bag of Pucks:
Huge kudos to all involved with PuckIQ. Absolutely stellar output from this tool. Nice work big brains! Going to be playing with this a TON.

A couple quick tips from a UX pov.

1) You may eventually want to add filters so users can remove selected data outputs from the view. The full output creates a long horizontal scroll which, while ideal in excel, creates a long scroll for tablet or mobile users. Makes it difficult to correlate data on the far right vs the specific player on the far left. Obviously, you can export data to solve this issue, but I’m assuming you’d like to keep the site experience as ‘sticky’ as possible.

2) Might not be a bad idea to make the search button bigger and move it further from the drop down menus to lessen ‘fat finger’ incidents.

At first glance, man does Boudreau ever feed his Cs to the wolves. No wonder they have no gas in the tank come playoffs.

Btw, if there’s new Allman Bros. fans today as a result of LT’s excellent post yesterday, check out Tedeschi Trucks and Government Mule. Both the brainchildren of Allman’s alumni and tasty in their own right.

1). Yeah it’s been something I’ve been thinking of. I was thinking of how Gabe used to do it at behindthenet.ca and I wanted to do something similar, but without so much individual picking and choosing. Maybe just by focusing on groups of data (i.e. DFF which would enable/disable DFF, DFA, DFF%, etc…).

2). I’m still playing around with the form controls. I have some ideas to make things better for phone/tablet users but I’m trying to do it in a way that doesn’t take over the whole screen.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Just want to sincerely say thanks to those involved and for sharing the data publicly. Appreciate how intuitive the site is for those of us who are math-averse, and impressed with the speed with which the site renders.

And as mentioned above, miss the good ol’ days when WG and GM were posting regularly. LT’s comment section was a better place when you guys were contributing and hope you circle back some day.

Revolved

This is great stuff. To have intellectual debate on a blog actually lead to tangible progress must be an unprecedented feat. We are all lucky to get to partake and I thank our host for the forum.

I have not spent much time on the site, but I did notice that in several cases the players with the lowest % time vs elite had the best DFFrelC. Although I hope Khaira really will crush the elites as the woodmoneys suggest, I’m wondering how you guys interpret this?

Is it just small sample randomness? are there layers of elite comp? is it something else situational like zone starts or team mates that make sheltered players minutes vs elites different? Maybe this is specific to the Oilers, but It is fun to get a picture of how coaches think, so thanks very much for painting it!

Bag of Pucks

Huge kudos to all involved with PuckIQ. Absolutely stellar output from this tool. Nice work big brains! Going to be playing with this a TON.

A couple quick tips from a UX pov.

1) You may eventually want to add filters so users can remove selected data outputs from the view. The full output creates a long horizontal scroll which, while ideal in excel, creates a long scroll for tablet or mobile users. Makes it difficult to correlate data on the far right vs the specific player on the far left. Obviously, you can export data to solve this issue, but I’m assuming you’d like to keep the site experience as ‘sticky’ as possible.

2) Might not be a bad idea to make the search button bigger and move it further from the drop down menus to lessen ‘fat finger’ incidents.

At first glance, man does Boudreau ever feed his Cs to the wolves. No wonder they have no gas in the tank come playoffs.

Btw, if there’s new Allman Bros. fans today as a result of LT’s excellent post yesterday, check out Tedeschi Trucks and Government Mule. Both the brainchildren of Allman’s alumni and tasty in their own right.

godot10

Rondo:
A steal the guy got 8 Selke votes this year

Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli3h3 hours ago

Frank Seravalli Retweeted New Jersey Devils
Got Johansson for FLA’s 2nd (from eating Savard contract) + TOR’s 3rd (Lamoriello hiring). NJD still have all of their own 2018 picks.Frank Seravalli added,
New Jersey DevilsVerified account @NJDevils
The #NjDevils today acquired forward Marcus Johansson! http://atnhl.com/2sCjUmU

So they can still offersheet Draisaitl…

Yeti

What a great accomplishment – congratulations to all those involved!!!

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Wow: thanks for sharing this LT: your an amazing part of the Oiler and hockey experience for so many

– This HockeyIQ is all-world: huge kudos to G/Wood/Zsolt Munoz/Derek Blasutti etc…

jp

Oilanderp:
I dunno.Searched for elite defenceman and Bieksa came up.Recommend trashing the entire database and starting over.Then burn down the building said database was stored in.

Cant be too safe these days.

Haha, are you sure you’re doing that right?

Bieksa had the WORST DFF% rel team vs elites in the league. Smells right to me 🙂

Edit: Impressive that the Ducks have Josh Manson #1 in that metric (250+ min) and Bieksa last (whatever actual # that is).

Oilander

I dunno. Searched for elite defenceman and Bieksa came up. Recommend trashing the entire database and starting over. Then burn down the building said database was stored in.

Cant be too safe these days.

jm363561

I would just like to briefly echo all the positive comments made above. The LoweTide community is a wonderful thing to be part of and WoodGuy’s presence has been sorely missed the last few weeks – I sincerely hope he continues to post. Being able to disagree but still share a beer seems to be a key reason for so many great posters (of which I am definitely not one) participating in the discussions. Long may it last.

Bruce McCurdy

congrats to G Money, Woodguy, Zsolt & Dawgbone.

It’s been my pleasure to play with the beta version of PuckIQ a little bit & I have been very impressed with both the quality of the data & the speed with which it is rendered. 100% agree with Darcy’s take on QualComp & the u-turn it had taken from important to meaningless failing the smell test. (feel the same way about ZoneStarts too.)

Anyway am glad to see the next step. Stick taps to all involved.

Edmonton_fan

I apologize in advance – but I have to post since this comment started the topic thread…

“Some very smart people have passed this way over the years.”… 😉

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgHXHtHSsNo

treevojo

Rondo:
A steal the guy got 8 Selke votes this year

Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli3h3 hours ago

Frank Seravalli Retweeted New Jersey Devils
Got Johansson for FLA’s 2nd (from eating Savard contract) + TOR’s 3rd (Lamoriello hiring). NJD still have all of their own 2018 picks.Frank Seravalli added,
New Jersey DevilsVerified account @NJDevils
The #NjDevils today acquired forward Marcus Johansson! http://atnhl.com/2sCjUmU

Maybe they wanted to send him to the one team in the east that had no chance of competing with them this year?

Rondo

A steal the guy got 8 Selke votes this year

Frank Seravalli‏Verified account @frank_seravalli 3h3 hours ago

Frank Seravalli Retweeted New Jersey Devils
Got Johansson for FLA’s 2nd (from eating Savard contract) + TOR’s 3rd (Lamoriello hiring). NJD still have all of their own 2018 picks.Frank Seravalli added,
New Jersey DevilsVerified account @NJDevils
The #NjDevils today acquired forward Marcus Johansson! http://atnhl.com/2sCjUmU

treevojo

Lowetide,

Did Gmoney make you change the picture because it only had a $5 bill and a $10 wood clip?

slopitch

Congrats G and Woodguy on the launch!

€√¥£€^$

treevojo:
Woodguy v2.0,
People can disagree and not hate each other. Weird I know, but its true.

I think it’s ok to “hate” having to reply to certain posters.

If it comes to that I would rather you chose to just not reply to those posters then not contribute at all.

Your time away from contributing to this blog has been missed.

Lowetide’s blog is still the best but the comment section is better with you here.

THIS x 13,250,000

€√¥£€^$

Lloyd B.: What a great compliment to Lowetide !This should be at the top of every post so we all mind our Ps and Qs.Attack the idea or comments all you want, but not the individual.

The one thing I always appreciated when I found this site a number of years ago was the level of discourse that would occur.It often led to some serious debate and discussion.

I never will be able to participate in the number generating side of the debates, but certainly appreciate all those that can and do.I enjoy sitting back and learning.

Thanks to the Woodmoney team for pulling this together.I am going to make a concerted effort to become at least conversant with the site.

CHEERS!

THIS! x 1000

€√¥£€^$

Woodguy v2.0,

Kudos to you all, this is a tremendous accomplishment!! So many people have a vision, but only a small percentage actually put in the time and effort to see it through!

LT your achievements cannot be understated either, and thank you again for putting out the welcome mat to provide a place for these brilliant minds to come together!

Remember, be good to each other folks and I sincerely hope you all are able to enjoy this amazing weather ( if you aren’t in Alberta, I hope you are having great weather as well).

Peace

Chachi

Not only is puckiq.com packed with information, it is incredibly easy to use! It is the mypillow.com of NHL fancy stats sites!

treevojo

Woodguy v2.0,
People can disagree and not hate each other. Weird I know, but its true.

I think it’s ok to “hate” having to reply to certain posters.

If it comes to that I would rather you chose to just not reply to those posters then not contribute at all.

Your time away from contributing to this blog has been missed.

Lowetide’s blog is still the best but the comment section is better with you here.

Lloyd B.

Woodguy v2.0:
Thank you so much Al.

WoodMoney was conceived and born in your comment section as like minds could come together to discuss these issues.Your blog has always been a place that valued shot and goal metrics.

Its funny when you thing about it.

GMoney and I became buddies after we disagreed vehemently about Talbot (I won hehe), but it was the ability to disagree on an intellectual level without resorting to disdain for the other person that had a different opinion that lead to greater things.

People can disagree and not hate each other.Weird I know, but its true.

Some of the best friends I have made and posters I respect have been the ones who disagreed with me so we both went to work trying to prove each other wrong and gained respect for each other in the process.

Thank you Al for having this place where that kind of interaction can happen without all the garbage that often accompanies it at other sites.

WoodMoney and puckiq.com exists because of you as much as is exists because of Ganesh, Zsolt, Derek and I.

Thank you.

What a great compliment to Lowetide ! This should be at the top of every post so we all mind our Ps and Qs. Attack the idea or comments all you want, but not the individual.

The one thing I always appreciated when I found this site a number of years ago was the level of discourse that would occur. It often led to some serious debate and discussion.

I never will be able to participate in the number generating side of the debates, but certainly appreciate all those that can and do. I enjoy sitting back and learning.

Thanks to the Woodmoney team for pulling this together. I am going to make a concerted effort to become at least conversant with the site.

CHEERS!

Woodguy v2.0

Jaxon:
WOW! Amazing work. Thanks a lot for supplying me another damn site to kill my time with. Let the procrastination begin!!!

Also, am I reading the charts correct if Cody Franson is looking like one of the best D against elites in the NHL?

Sign him!

Context is *always* crucial.

We provide the data, but you need to provide the context yourself.

Woodguy v2.0

Derek:
Thanks to G and WG for putting this all together for us armchair GMs.

As was previously stated, I can’t imagine all the time that went into making this thing go, especially considering you always seemed like rather busy fellows to begin with.

I can’t imagine all the time either.

Thank Gord I didn’t actually do any of the work.

*whew*

Woodguy v2.0

godot10:
I’m greedy.I “demand” U2 data (With Or Without You), and historical data for the last 10 years.

Soon.

Woodguy v2.0

Thank you so much Al.

WoodMoney was conceived and born in your comment section as like minds could come together to discuss these issues. Your blog has always been a place that valued shot and goal metrics.

Its funny when you think about it.

GMoney and I became buddies after we disagreed vehemently about Talbot (I won hehe), but it was the ability to disagree on an intellectual level without resorting to disdain for the other person that had a different opinion that lead to greater things.

People can disagree and not hate each other. Weird I know, but its true.

Some of the best friends I have made and posters I respect have been the ones who disagreed with me so we both went to work trying to prove each other wrong and gained respect for each other in the process.

Thank you Al for having this place where that kind of interaction can happen without all the garbage that often accompanies it at other sites.

WoodMoney and puckiq.com exists because of you as much as is exists because of Ganesh, Zsolt, Derek and I.

Thank you.

Jaxon

WOW! Amazing work. Thanks a lot for supplying me another damn site to kill my time with. Let the procrastination begin!!!

Also, am I reading the charts correct if Cody Franson is looking like one of the best D against elites in the NHL?

Sign him!

Derek

Thanks to G and WG for putting this all together for us armchair GMs.

As was previously stated, I can’t imagine all the time that went into making this thing go, especially considering you always seemed like rather busy fellows to begin with.

godot10

I’m greedy. I “demand” U2 data (With Or Without You), and historical data for the last 10 years.

godot10

–hudson–:
Congrats Woodguy and GMoney!Agreed the site not only looks good, but performance is snappy.

Please sandbag the Oilers RFA stats before anyway notices, also please mess up the data for any views coming from Calgary or southern California.

That would be a waste of time (in light of VPN services)..

Clarkenstein

Lowetide: This from the man who can recite the specs on every car since 1968!

Ok I’ll make an honest attempt to figure some of this out. Is there a column where the 3rd liner with the most navel lint scores the most goals on Tuesdays… or something like that? Cause that I can understand.

frjohnk

russ99: Is any stat service going to publish HDSC and zone entries against/zone exits for individual players this coming season?

Here is why the Woodmoneys blow away the HDSC ( and I have used lots and like HDSC)

https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

HDSC is yesterdays stat

Woodmoney is huge leap towards the holy grail of shot quality.

--hudson--

Congrats Woodguy and GMoney! Agreed the site not only looks good, but performance is snappy.

Please sandbag the Oilers RFA stats before anyway notices, also please mess up the data for any views coming from Calgary or southern California.

frjohnk

It sucked that Corsica went down recently so having PuckIQ go public today is a boon for advanced stats.

Congrats to all who contributed.

russ99

Excellent site. Looking forward to using this. Parts of this are still a bit too shots for focused for my taste, but DFA and the numbers for different levels of competition are quite groundbreaking.

Is any stat service going to publish HDSC and zone entries against/zone exits for individual players this coming season? Those are my defensive metrics of choice.

treevojo

I will be looking forward to seeing Nurse rip the shit out of these Woodmoneys this year.

It always amazes me how you guys find the time for this while being successful in your real lives.

Kudos to you guys.

jp

Great job guys! Congratulations!

Clarkenstein

Good gawd after reading that I need a nap!

dustrock

As I said on Twitter, happy with how quickly the data loads. Looks great gents!

böök¡je

Excellent! Well done folks!

If you need someone to run your sarcastic statistics division, give me a call (unless Steve Smith is available, then go with him).