CRUEL SUMMER

by Lowetide

Mrs. Lowetide shops every aisle. Even if she’s getting five items, that’s how she does it. Drives me looney. If you have five items, you strategically map out the most efficient route and then deploy! No sir. She starts in produce and finishes in dairy. Both Mrs. Lowetide and me would have difficulty with the Peter Chiarelli shopping plan. He appears to be avoiding the main store altogether, preferring to hit the roll-end shops and Taber corn trucks. There are clear needs on this team (RH second pairing, first-person shooter) but the Oilers aren’t in on free agency at this time.

JESSE, ANTON, JUJHAR AND THE DRAKE 

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, it is fairly clear the Oilers are devoted to the youngsters on each wing. LW’s Drake Caggiula and Jujhar Khaira, along with RW’s Jesse Puljujarvi and Anton Slepyshev, represent 50 percent of a starting eight wingers. If they all make the opening night lineup, there’ll be no place to hide. The hope is these men gain experience and are able to play at pace. Certainly Caggiula and Slepyshev performed well down the stretch in the playoffs this spring.

JAROMIR, JAROME, JAROME, JAROMIR

Once Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are signed, perhaps there will be money for a veteran winger. I wonder if the Oilers will prefer to give the young wingers a full shot, say through the end of December, to find their way? We did see some chem with Drake Caggiula on 97’s wing, and with Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev during the playoffs. What about Puljujarvi? Perhaps on a line with Patrick Maroon and the Nuge.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST

  • The 50-man list is at 46 (plus two slide rules), so we’re getting close now. Teams often run at 48 out of 50, so there’s room for two more names comfortably.
  • I would like to drop a three-for-one reference in here just in case it happens. Always be watchful!
  • If this is it (doo wop) then Peter Chiarelli is going to be very active at the deadline. Question: Buyer or seller? I kid. My roster has Brad Malone, Iiro Pakarinen and Mark Fayne opening night. The deadline will see movement.
  • Andrej Sekera better be sitting in one of those Bojnice hot springs with all the youthful waters that inspire good health. Damnable Getzlaf!

TYLER BENSON

Rob Tychkowski has an excellent update on Tyler Benson, he’s skating and at orientation camp but they are taking it slow. The sequence of injuries according to the article was:

  • Two years ago, cyst on his spine.
  • Last fall, shoulder.
  • Last winter, groin issue after 30 games (likely connected to the cyst).
  • Source

Lots in there, make sure to read it. I didn’t include the quotes from Benson and Rick Carriere, they are vital to the article. Benson remains a substantial prospect but a strong final season in junior would be a Godsend.

VALUE CONTRACTS

In 2005-06, the last time Edmonton made it to the SCF’s, there were six value contracts. Here they are in alpha order:

  • Marc Andre Bergeron ($931k).
  • Ales Hemsky ($901,740).
  • Shawn Horcoff ($1M).
  • Fernando Pisani ($611,800).
  • Jarret Stoll ($501,600).
  • Raffi Torres ($875,000).

That was a tremendous cluster of young talent, and Mr. Hemsky is still going. He caused quite a stir yesterday among Oilers fans who didn’t realize they still loved him. At Lowetide, we have always kept a light on, would have been fabulous to see him here. Here are my nominees for value contracts in 2016-17 (need six):

  • Connor McDavid $.925M (plus $2.850M in bonus) ($3.775 million total)
  • Ryan Strome $2.5M
  • Patrick Maroon $1.5M
  • Anton Slepyshev $.925M (plus $.600M in bonus) ($1.525 million total)
  • Drake Caggiula $.925M (plus $.425M in bonus) ($1.350 million total)
  • Matt Benning $.925M (plus $.300M in bonus) ($1.225 million total)
  • Darnell Nurse $.863M (plus $.850M in bonus) ($1.713333 million total)

I have seven names but not all of these will be value deals. Mark Letestu was a value deal last season, could be again. I have a feeling Ryan Strome and or Jesse Puljujarvi might grab some of that 5×4 time. Zack Kassian could also be a value deal. Cam Talbot, too.

We had a chat last night about the McDavid contract, a growing number of people who comment here believe 97’s next contract will make it impossible to win Stanley. I would argue the exact opposite: McDavid’s presence alone makes all of the next seasons possible Destination Stanley. Peter Chiarelli’s job is easier than, say, Doug Wilson’s, just because 97. I am absolutely convinced this is true. What can PC do in order to make this team succeed? One way is to find value contracts.

It’s going to be a long summer, methinks. Leon Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers may be as much as $2 million apart according to reports. If that was true, you could meet in the middle ($8.5 million) and call it a day. This looks like an aggressive agent finding a proud and determined young hockey player, and it’s Thelma & Louise final scene, balls out serious. I cannot tell you how many times I’ve seen this, only that it rarely ever ends well.

We can agree that $9 million is too much and that $7 million is at least somewhat acceptable on an eight-year deal. This should get done, but it takes two sides willing and we’re not there yet. Is Germany in the Olympics? If PC pays Leon $9 million times eight, we’re looking at a new world order in terms of salaries given out to young players. Veterans will get screwed, the deals signed by Edmonton earlier in the summer (Russell) instantly an albatross. The agent is attempting to change the market, in an effort to slice the money pie in a different way. In a way, the Oilers and their negotiations with Leon Draisaitl may set the stage for the biggest change in the weather this century. The big money may be gone for even good NHL players by the time they reach 30 if this deal happens.

I’d say quietly shop him but how is that possible?

ANDREI MARKOV

Ridiculous he’s still out there, wonder if he would be willing to take a one-year deal with the Oilers. PC could use the Andrej Sekera LTIR money on him, slow play Sekera’s return to make the cap work. Thoughts?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back in action this morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Oilers Nation. Jon will make sense of this past weekend.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN Details. CFL Week Two was a lot of fun! Injuries piling up for Eskimos.
  • Jeff Veillette, Leafs Nation. Patrick Marleau is a Maple Leaf!
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. The Leon gap.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

282 comments
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282 comments

limit July 4, 2017 - 10:09 pm

So Nuge for Dylan Strome?

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 6:54 pm

Bank Shot: Well compared to a bunch of guys signed in the last two years, $9 million for Draisaitl looks absolutely nuts.

There has still been a very real RFA discount in effect as Tarasenko has been the only player with a fair number of RFA years left to get over $7 million up until this point.

I think you mean for forwards but Ekblad has as well.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 6:14 pm

speeds: If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge.Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal?And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

Ok, you’ve convinced me the line in the sand for the bridge is $7.5 M. If Leon insists on north of that, bridge him.

That said, it’s a shame if that occurs cos Connor’s at $13.5. Thrilled to have him for 8 years, but that cap hit does the team no favours.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 5:53 pm

Bank Shot: Well compared to a bunch of guys signed in the last two years, $9 million for Draisaitl looks absolutely nuts.

There has still been a very real RFA discount in effect as Tarasenko has been the only player with a fair number of RFA years left to get over $7 million up until this point.

I think 9 is high for max years. I’d stop around 8 x 8. Also like the idea or telling agents to figure out how they’ll share 21. Ok, maybe 21.5 tops.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 5:47 pm

McSorley33: I don’t see anything wrong with a Bridge ( show me CHALLENGE
contract )…..
Club has the leverage. Not the player.

FTFY

Also, if you detour over the bridge the player just applied his leverage.

Bank Shot July 4, 2017 - 5:13 pm

N64: Gaudreau could not sign an offer sheet. You can check the others. The claim is that the RFA years discount has eroded to where we are. Gone for franchise players. Reduced for elite. We wait.

Well compared to a bunch of guys signed in the last two years, $9 million for Draisaitl looks absolutely nuts.

There has still been a very real RFA discount in effect as Tarasenko has been the only player with a fair number of RFA years left to get over $7 million up until this point.

--hudson-- July 4, 2017 - 4:52 pm

haters:
Quietly shop McDavid and sign Dria ! Then we have the money to extend Russell aasnnnd Lucic till their 40!

*ducks under closest tectonic plate*

Imagine the look on McD’s face if the Oilers extend him tomorrow, then trade Drai a day later. Here Connor your wingers next season are Kassian & Maroon – take us to the promised land.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 4:52 pm

VOR:
Speeds,

So what sort of bridge deal would you offer Leon Draisaitl?

It would depend on the actual state of negotiations, but I would be looking at the bridge contracts of Kucherov (4.8M, 3 years) and Panarin (6M, 2 years) as my comparables. And I wouldn’t be opposed to a long term deal either, categorically, if the price were right.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 4:49 pm

N64,

yup, that is true, that’s why I worded that that way. I was trying to illustrate that there still exists a reduced RFA rate with Gaudreau’s deal, which only covered 1 UFA year. In terms of as a comparable for Draisaitl, which I copied and pasted to use later in the thread as a response to “Bag of Pucks”, it wouldn’t have hurt to have mentioned it, as it would have added perspective.

If the argument is that the first “RFA” year where Gaudreau wasn’t OS eligible might have decreased the value of his deal a little bit, I’d agree with that.

--hudson-- July 4, 2017 - 4:48 pm

speeds: Anything’s possible, but what would be the reason to think you couldn’twith 3 RFA yrs left? Why would he be willing to re-sign long term now, but not in 2 years if you’re offering market money and are a top end team?

The straightforward line of thought is Drai’s camp is not confident he can be top 10 in scoring 2 years from now. They must feel their position on performance and fit is better now than it will be in 2 years. Maybe rightly so if Puljujarvi or Yamamoto become the defacto RW for Connor in the next 2 seasons.

I am not sure Drai’s camp is the only one playing hardball here though. The Oilers have treated him extremely well:
– they let him burn an ELC year very early
– they arranged the trade to Kelowna
– given him great linemates in the NHL
– they didn’t fool around at all in the last game of the year against the Canucks, they let both McD and Drai earn their bonuses in a mean-nothing game.

After all of this, I would be surprised to see him take such a strong stance.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 4:47 pm

VOR:
Speeds,

And why wouldn’t we then use Ovechkin and or Malkin as reasonable comparable players to McDavid?

Ovechkin signed a longer term deal that EDM can’t sign McDavid to, which makes it hard to do. Malkin was a bit of a couple years older, only signed 5 years, but he’s probably the best non-Crosby comp.

Extend Russell July 4, 2017 - 4:44 pm

Quietly shop McDavid and sign Dria ! Then we have the money to extend Russell aasnnnd Lucic till their 40!

*ducks under closest tectonic plate*

Munny July 4, 2017 - 4:42 pm

PunjabiOil: Would having some depth be more risk averse? Absolutely.

Not that I don’t agree with this, with respect to my response above. I do.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 4:41 pm

Bag of Pucks: The dangerous assumption you’re making is that you CAN resign him. That’s the dual edged nature of the bridge. Sure, great to get the savings in the meantime. Not so great if you lose the player prematurely.

Any bridge has to be short, ideally leaving 2 RFA years or he will have the hammer. With two left, Pete has room to manoeuvre. If he’s great pay him, lock him for 8 and that takes him into his 30’s which is a better age to resign him (not in his peak) or trade him while his rep is still in tact.

Resigning in the late 20’s is most expensive, at least now. It also means a long contract buying decline. Part of staying competitive is moving vet key players at the right time so the team can restock, or having contracts come up when the too long term can be avoided.

Calgary and Vancouver blew it and it hurt them.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 4:39 pm

speeds: Last summer, Gaudreau finished t-6th in NHL scoring the previous season, signed a 6 year deal, 6.75M AAV, that included 5 years before UFA and 1 UFA year.

This summer, Draisaitl finished 8th in NHL scoring the previous season, and has 5 years before he reaches UFA status.Not entirely dissimilar!

Not eligible for offer sheet.

--hudson-- July 4, 2017 - 4:39 pm

fifthcartel:
McDavid’s number has 0 affect on Draisaitl.

Actually I would disagree with this assertion. Just a few days ago, Joe Thornton gave the Sharks several options based on whether Marleau resigned or not. About a decade ago, several Detroit Red Wings took pay cuts to bring in free agents and fit under the team budget.

Look at all of the players who are returning to the Blackhawks at a discount.

Conceptually I think it is fair to say the value of Drai is independent from Connor, but there is a translation that happens when it gets converted into a contract and squeezed into the cap or team budget system.

McSorley33 July 4, 2017 - 4:37 pm

In Winnipeg, Trouba wanted the Sun and the Moon.

Chevy – you are an RFA.

Trouba – took some time…..and thought about it.

Trouba’s cap hit next year is 2.8 million.

We **own** Drai.

Count be in with FifthCartel and Speeds.

I don’t see anything wrong with a Bridge ( show me contract )…..

Club has the leverage. Not the player.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 4:37 pm

Bag of Pucks: The dangerous assumption you’re making is that you CAN resign him. That’s the dual edged nature of the bridge. Sure, great to get the savings in the meantime. Not so great if you lose the player prematurely.

Anything’s possible, but what would be the reason to think you couldn’t with 3 RFA yrs left? Why would he be willing to re-sign long term now, but not in 2 years if you’re offering market money and are a top end team?

VOR July 4, 2017 - 4:35 pm

Speeds,

And why wouldn’t we then use Ovechkin and or Malkin as reasonable comparable players to McDavid?

N64 July 4, 2017 - 4:32 pm

Bag of Pucks: The dangerous assumption you’re making is that you CAN resign him. That’s the dual edged nature of the bridge. Sure, great to get the savings in the meantime. Not so great if you lose the player prematurely.

See Challenge.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 4:31 pm

speeds: If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge.Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal?And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

The dangerous assumption you’re making is that you CAN resign him. That’s the dual edged nature of the bridge. Sure, great to get the savings in the meantime. Not so great if you lose the player prematurely.

VOR July 4, 2017 - 4:31 pm

Speeds,

So what sort of bridge deal would you offer Leon Draisaitl?

N64 July 4, 2017 - 4:30 pm

fifthcartel: Draisaitl has 5 years of RFA service left. That is more than all of his actual comparables – Gaudreau, Scheifele, Monahan, Kucherov

Gaudreau could not sign an offer sheet. You can check the others. The claim is that the RFA years discount has eroded to where we are. Gone for franchise players. Reduced for elite. We wait.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 4:26 pm

oilfan17,

what I meant was signed, not received.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 4:25 pm

Ducey: Its based on AAV not years

Sure. Under 6 years the no of years doesn’t matter. 🙂

7.85M for 1-5 years is only a 1 2 and 3.

John Chambers July 4, 2017 - 4:23 pm

speeds: If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge.Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal?And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

Add to that the subsequent Draisaitl contract would take him to age 31 or 32, as opposed to age 29.

Lots of reasons why the Oilers should want to seek a bridge deal.

fifthcartel July 4, 2017 - 4:21 pm

Hello everyone.

UFA contracts and RFA contracts are not comparable. There’s a reason theyre noticeably lower. None of Kopitar/Thornton/Giroux/Voracek deals are in the conversation with Draisaitl.

Draisaitl has 5 years of RFA service left. That is more than all of his actual comparables – Gaudreau, Scheifele, Monahan, Kucherov.

McDavid’s number has 0 affect on Draisaitl. McDavid is so good they had to look at a similarly good player and took the % of the cap into account. Edmonton doesn’t need to do that because there are many players similar to Draisaitl.

The rumoured ask is ~9 but if Edmonton uses their leverage, and they should, the NHL Draisaitl should come in ~7 million.

classict July 4, 2017 - 4:20 pm

Scungilli Slushy: I think it’s really important to remember that if Leon was playing on a team without McDavid he would have been keyed on and very likely not scored the same.

How would Malkin be if the the other team didn’t have to shut the best player in the world down first?

I don’t know if they can keep Leon’s number down, but players and agents have to recognize the effect on their numbers. If they want to stay.

I hope Leon’s contract is moveable. If not that might end up a real kick in the pants.

Agree with the message but maybe not the player comparables. Malkin won an Art Ross with 109 pts in a season Crosby only played 22 games. If Draisaitl was Malkin good I’d have no problem paying him what he wants.

oilfan17 July 4, 2017 - 4:19 pm

speeds: Crosby as a comp isn’t necessarily why I think the 13M ish extension is OK, but the reason I guess I would give along those lines is that there are current comparables for Draisaitl that maybe aren’t perfect, but are relatively close-ish (Kucherov, Monahan, Gaudreau, Tarasenko) and have been signed pretty recently.But there isn’t really a comp in the league for McDavid, so you have to come up with something to to pay him – it’s maybe easier to look at a historical comp if there is no current comp.

BTW, I don’t love the “percentage of the cap” argument for McDavid either (ignores shifting league wide trends), but more readily understand it when you have nothing else.

Additionally, the offer sheet threat is more severe for McDavid than Draisaitl – McDavid would have already received one if he were an RFA (JMO), while Draisaitl hasn’t, and it’s certainly possible that he will, but arguably more likely that he won’t (again, JMO)

How do you know he hasn’t already received one? They’re not made public until he actually signs.

Jethro Tull July 4, 2017 - 4:16 pm

“I know you’re actually quite bright, but you choose to use it strangely.”

Dead Man Walking, replying to DSF in the Eberle post. Possibly the funniest thing I have read in a long time.

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 4:09 pm

Thinker: Itis more reasonable to use 08/09 cap since it is when te contract took effect, and cap was rising much faster, and that rise was being factored in at the time. We don’t know what the 18/19 cap will be, but the cap has been pretty stagnant, so 75 is probably still a reasonably fair guess. Tha

Ah, but we are here. More reasonable doesn’t really factor, since we know not what the cap will be when the contract kicks in.

Munny July 4, 2017 - 4:08 pm

PunjabiOil: Trading Hall because you’re comtfortable Puljujarvi can be a driver.

Where does this come from? Did Chia state this somewhere?

Pretty sure GMs can dream of ideal situations as well as, if not better than we can. But they also have to face reality. I doubt “comfortable” is the right word here. Or “driver”.

Most of the players I mentioned have at least one season in the NHL. They have earned their spots. Sleppy’s deployment this past season was a thing of beauty by TMac, IMO. And it looks like he’s arrived. Strome, Kassian are NHLers.. Caggiula has proven himself able.

There’s enough coverage on this team to find a rawer winger some soft minutes.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 4:00 pm

If Draisaitl is signed at 9M, he has to play a significant amount away from Connor, unless they are trying to catch up.

IF he can drive his own a line with lesser players at some point, like Crosby/Malkin, the money will work out.

If he can’t then I hope he’s moveable. It will be a lot of pressure on him, he seems like he type to respond to that.

If next season he has to play with Connor to be effective, Nuge and Strome better come to camp with their big boy pants.

Gayfish July 4, 2017 - 4:00 pm

Lowetide: Cap in 2007-08 was 50.3 million (I believe that’s accurate, correct me if wrong)
Crosby signed a contract that summer that began 2008-09 was $8.7 million
That is 17.2 percent

PLEASE CHECK MY MATH AND FACTS, FOLKS

Cap in 2017-18 is 75.M
McDavid’s rumored hit is $13.25
That is 17.67

Looks close to me.

It is more reasonable to use 08/09 cap since it is when te contract took effect, and cap was rising much faster, and that rise was being factored in at the time. We don’t know what the 18/19 cap will be, but the cap has been pretty stagnant, so 75 is probably still a reasonably fair guess. Tha

GMB3 July 4, 2017 - 3:57 pm

speeds: If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge.Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal?And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

This is spot on

Professor Q July 4, 2017 - 3:57 pm

Lowetide: Cap in 2007-08 was 50.3 million (I believe that’s accurate, correct me if wrong)
Crosby signed a contract that summer that began 2008-09 was $8.7 million
That is 17.2 percent

PLEASE CHECK MY MATH AND FACTS, FOLKS

Cap in 2017-18 is 75.M
McDavid’s rumored hit is $13.25
That is 17.67

Looks close to me.

Yes, but they were expecting the cap to increase by $4-6 million annually, and it did. A time of plenty. You can use Ovechkin’s deal to supplement if you’re wary about the deal only being 5 years.

Presently it is not expected to increase nearly that much. If it were expected to do so, then fine. Done deal.

Dfferent context and nuances.

leadfarmer July 4, 2017 - 3:52 pm

Lowetide: Everyone was very pleased. :-

https://lowetide.ca/2012/08/30/eberle-signs/

There’s a whole lot of classic DSF in that.
Hall deal likely to go south
Why are they paying Hall and Eberle, Booth and Burrows money?
Ha!!!

speeds July 4, 2017 - 3:51 pm

Bag of Pucks: Duh. Of course it would, but you’re likely achieving that via a bridge deal only. Would you like to be 1 Cup win or 2 in and then face the prospect of losing Toews to FA? Cos that’s what could happen.

This may fall under the heading of: Get good players. Keep good players.

But we’ve already got some posters trading Drai now. Sigh….

If Draisaitl would cost 9M to sign long term now, above his comparable group which probably tops out at 7.5M with Tarasenko, MAYBE 7.8M if you consider Kuznetsov a comp (which is somewhat debatable given the RFA/UFA disrepancy between the two players), it’s somewhat questionable how much downside there is to a bridge. Even if he “proves” himself in terms of being a top end C away from McDavid, how likely is it that he’s going to produce enough offense to cost notably more than 9M for the next deal? And even if he does cost more, you’d at least be paying it more secure in the idea that he can comfortably carry his own line.

Side July 4, 2017 - 3:49 pm

GMB3:
I don’t understand how it’s in the best interest of the NHLPA to push McDavid to take the largest contract available. Same with Drai, that means Matthews, nylander, Eichel, and others will take up a larger piece of the pie, meaning less money to go around and more 32 year olds playing for a discounted salary or else they would lose their spot to inferior players on ELC’s

Personally, I think it would be great if McDavid got $13.5 million and Toronto paid Auston “Better than McDavid” Matthews the same or higher.

PunjabiOil July 4, 2017 - 3:48 pm

Cap in 2007-08 was 50.3 million (I believe that’s accurate, correct me if wrong)
Crosby signed a contract that summer that began 2008-09 was $8.7 million
That is 17.2 percent

PLEASE CHECK MY MATH AND FACTS, FOLKS

Cap in 2017-18 is 75.M
McDavid’s rumored hit is $13.25
That is 17.67

Looks close to me.

I don’t really have a problem with McDavid getting paid. He’s earned it, and we get his services for the next 9 years in the prime of his career.

Would it be nice to get a discount? Sure – but can’t expect it. He will still be value irrespective.

A few points though:

1. It’s a new benchmark – can’t really compare the landscapes in those years. Salary cap was rising quickly then, but at the same time, his deal was 5 years and not 8 as in McDavid’s.

2. Salaries at the high end have not grown as quickly as opposed to the mid-range/lower-end. This McDavid deal will have significant impact for every star out there, and maybe it was necessary for McDavid to the pave the way.

Draisaitl – on the other hand – and I hate to use this word – but he’s being greedy if he’s unwilling to move from his 9-10M ask. At the 7.5-8M range, that is more than fair/reasonable relative to his contributions. Oilers management have to remain firm on this.

stephen sheps July 4, 2017 - 3:43 pm

Lowetide: Everyone was very pleased. :-

https://lowetide.ca/2012/08/30/eberle-signs/

good lord there’s some gold in that thread. One of the all-time greats from
New Improved Darkness when he went by a different name and I was reminded how much I miss “Steve Smith” and Bookje. Those two should post more, if they’re even still around.

GMB3 July 4, 2017 - 3:42 pm

I don’t understand how it’s in the best interest of the NHLPA to push McDavid to take the largest contract available. Same with Drai, that means Matthews, nylander, Eichel, and others will take up a larger piece of the pie, meaning less money to go around and more 32 year olds playing for a discounted salary or else they would lose their spot to inferior players on ELC’s

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 3:40 pm

speeds: That would be great.Wouldn’t it be better for the team if he did it making 7M instead of 9M?

Duh. Of course it would, but you’re likely achieving that via a bridge deal only. Would you like to be 1 Cup win or 2 in and then face the prospect of losing Drai to FA? Cos that’s what could happen.

This may fall under the heading of: Get good players. Keep good players.

But we’ve already got some posters trading Drai now. Sigh….

PunjabiOil July 4, 2017 - 3:38 pm

Your comment is kind of vague. Not sure which player you are talking about. Sleppy, Kassian, Strome? Khaira, Caggiula?

All of the above and Puljujarvi.

Can some of them handle it? Possibly. Would having some depth be more risk averse? Absolutely.

We’ve seen this movie before. Versteeg/Puljujarvi. Schultz/Gilbert. Trading Hall because you’re comfortable Puljujarvi can be a driver.

New Improved Darkness July 4, 2017 - 3:37 pm

Bag of Pucks:
It’s as small as Leon’s sample.

McDavid Is Back — 21 November 2016

A ten game goalless streak staked through the heart with a hatty, leaving Connor with only 23 points accrued in 19 games.

That was what came up in my deliberate search for a lower extremis bald patch.

And what about his uncalled groin-pokes (received) per 60? Does that also count in your world as a “small” sample size? Well, me and at least one other guy (to hazard a wild guess) are not inclined to depict this number as a statistical fluke.

Fluke (n.) — A metal hook on the head of certain staff weapons, made in various forms depending on function, whether used for grappling or to penetrate armour when swung at an opponent.

Ah, now I see your point, where I didn’t before.

GMB3 July 4, 2017 - 3:37 pm

speeds: That would be great.Wouldn’t it be better for the team if he did it making 7M instead of 9M?

Wouldn’t it be better for Drai and the team if he did it at 6.5 X 4 and then got a huge pay day he actually deserves potentially after 1 or 2 cups?

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 3:35 pm

Thinker: This is inaccurate. It is basically 2 million more with crosby’s percentage. Only guy close is ovechkin, which would work out to 12.5. Not to mention the long stretch that these teams struggled. Under the weight of these contracts.

Cap in 2007-08 was 50.3 million (I believe that’s accurate, correct me if wrong)
Crosby signed a contract that summer that began 2008-09 was $8.7 million
That is 17.2 percent

PLEASE CHECK MY MATH AND FACTS, FOLKS

Cap in 2017-18 is 75.M
McDavid’s rumored hit is $13.25
That is 17.67

Looks close to me.

GMB3 July 4, 2017 - 3:35 pm

Based on track record I think chia mismanages the cap (if he hasn’t already) and this team is blown up, and we will all be talking about what could have been

speeds July 4, 2017 - 3:34 pm

Bag of Pucks:

The other thing is, I don’t think you want to place all the expectations for contract performance on offensive goals. What if Draisaitl morphs into a Kopitar or Bergeron. Would you be upset if he’s a dominant 200ft C in contention for the Selke every year and only scoring 65-70 points? That sounds a lot like Toews to me. I would take that.

That would be great. Wouldn’t it be better for the team if he did it making 7M instead of 9M?

The Trade Guy July 4, 2017 - 3:33 pm

If McDavid isn’t worth the max then who is?

Plus the NHL has escrow in place so he’s probably taking home less than that.

I know the player’s hate escrow (in spite of doing escalators) but I’m not sure what % they are losing in any given year.

The NBA’s cap dropped this year by 2 million because the Warriors and Lebron swept everybody. I wonder how much money was lost having no Canadian teams in the playoffs a couple years ago.

Bank Shot July 4, 2017 - 3:31 pm

striatic:
Did the Oilers attempt to sign Draisaitl long term last summer? If not, why not?

I never heard any talk about it. My guess is that Leon likely would have wanted at least $6X6 like all the other wunderkids got.

Seeing how two out of three of those deals backfired on the Oilers I can understand why they would be gun shy about paying a guy huge money before he earned it.

Well now he’s earned it, and we are all praying that Draisaitl’s career doesn’t mirror Eberle’s production wise.

Draisaitl still shouldn’t get more than $8 million tops. His comparables are Gaudreau, Tarasenko, and Kucherov, not Giroux, Kopitar, and the other UFAS.

Munny July 4, 2017 - 3:30 pm

PunjabiOil:
Those all seem pretty obvious.

Not to me.

Obvious/sensible play would be to sign a veteran free agent on a 1 year contract.

Oilers are hell bent to put their younger players in a position to fail, in roster spots in the lineup they haven’t earned.

As in obviously the plan for the Oilers. There were no surprises in that list.

The only veteran signing I expect might happen from the Oil is an LD, and that depends on their read on Sekera’s injury, where they have much better info than I.

Your comment is kind of vague. Not sure which player you are talking about. Sleppy, Kassian, Strome? Khaira, Caggiula? One of the many unproven Chi and Pit players that have been thrown in to the fray and performed well? It is almost impossible to “prove” one’s self, without having an opportunity to do so. It’s up to the coach to provide the appropriate minutes and cover. It’s up to the GM to make sure this isn’t happening all over the line up.

Always making bets as a GM, as you know. This team much better able to support a rookie than recent iterations. Time will tell on how the bet plays out…. Yamamoto?

speeds July 4, 2017 - 3:30 pm

VOR:
speeds,

I am using Kopitar a) because Draisaitl has made it very clear Kopitar is the player he has modeled his career on and b) because Lowetide and a lot of others keep using Sidney Crosby as the comparable contract for McDavid. Kopitar signed in 2009 and didn’t Crosby sign in 2008.

So if Crosby is your chosen comparable for McDavid why can’t Kopitar be mine for Draisaitl?

Crosby as a comp isn’t necessarily why I think the 13M ish extension is OK, but the reason I guess I would give along those lines is that there are current comparables for Draisaitl that maybe aren’t perfect, but are relatively close-ish (Kucherov, Monahan, Gaudreau, Tarasenko) and have been signed pretty recently. But there isn’t really a comp in the league for McDavid, so you have to come up with something to to pay him – it’s maybe easier to look at a historical comp if there is no current comp.

BTW, I don’t love the “percentage of the cap” argument for McDavid either (ignores shifting league wide trends), but more readily understand it when you have nothing else.

Additionally, the offer sheet threat is more severe for McDavid than Draisaitl – McDavid would have already received one if he were an RFA (JMO), while Draisaitl hasn’t, and it’s certainly possible that he will, but arguably more likely that he won’t (again, JMO)

striatic July 4, 2017 - 3:26 pm

Did the Oilers attempt to sign Draisaitl long term last summer? If not, why not?

misfit July 4, 2017 - 3:26 pm

Leon Draisaitl has been my favourite Oiler for as long as he’s been one. but if it’s going to take $9M x 8 to get him signed, then I’d strongly consider trading him right now while teams still think he’s worth it.

Kopitar has a $10M cap hit. Benn’s is $9.5M. Draisaitl could very well be a player comparable to both of those guys, but both of those two players had a proven track record beyond a single season playing shotgun to the best player in the world. Even though from Draisaitl’s perspective, I’d imagine it would be tough to look at Giroux @ $8.275M, Voracek at $8.25M, Perry @ $8.625M, and not think he’s worth at least as much as all of those players or more, especially when all of those players signed those deals years ago with a lower cap.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 3:22 pm

Ducey:

If you think Leon should make $9 million, then you think he should be traded, because the math does not work after this year.

I don’t.

I think Leon should top out at $8M and Connor at $12.5M. $20.5M for the pair.

Kane and Toews make $21M per season, earned off the backs of multiple Cup wins.

If our pair wants to out-earn them, put in a renegotiation/escalator clause that triggers after their 2nd Cup win.

Side July 4, 2017 - 3:20 pm

Bag of Pucks:

The other thing is, I don’t think you want to place all the expectations for contract performance on offensive goals. What if Draisaitl morphs into a Kopitar or Bergeron. Would you be upset if he’s a dominant 200ft C in contention for the Selke every year and only scoring 65-70 points? That sounds a lot like Toews to me. I would take that.

Yeah this is where the divide is for me. $9 million and you’re kinda hoping Drai keeps going forward in performance and morphs into a Kopitar/Bergeron/Toews.

But then… what if he doesn’t? My preference would be for him to do a bridge or a shorter term deal so if in a couple of years he does morph into a Kopitar/Bergeron/Toews, then he can be paid as such.

9×8 seems very much like a “hope for the best!” type of deal in my eyes.

leadfarmer July 4, 2017 - 3:20 pm

Salaries top players going through the roof. Secondary players to follow. That combined with flat cap can only mean one thing.

Lockout!!

That time every decade when the NHL shoots itself in the foot and proves why it is an afterthought in American sports. When is the last time the NFL shut down for a half a season. And their contracts aren’t even guaranteed.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 3:20 pm

Bag of Pucks: And yet ironically, Leon outscores him (handily) in their first playoffs together.

Incidentally, you would hope to hell the team never plays them off each other like this in the contract talks. Worst team building exercise EVER!

I think it’s really important to remember that if Leon was playing on a team without McDavid he would have been keyed on and very likely not scored the same.

How would Malkin be if the the other team didn’t have to shut the best player in the world down first?

I don’t know if they can keep Leon’s number down, but players and agents have to recognize the effect on their numbers. If they want to stay.

I hope Leon’s contract is moveable. If not that might end up a real kick in the pants.

Gret99zky July 4, 2017 - 3:19 pm

Bag of Pucks:

We’ll all grumble a bit and then hope like hell the players cover the bet.

Lord have mercy if he doesn’t cover the bet. Imagine missing the playoffs because Drai under-achieves?

Side: If Leon does get $9 million, what will be your expectations of him going forward?Should he run his own line? Should he keep playing with McDavid as a winger? And what numbers will you be expecting him to put up going forward?

Not trying to be a dink at all, lol, I’m genuinely curious.$9 million comes with a lot of expectations.

I would say 80-90 pts per regular season is reasonable for $9M. Which is highly improbable. (Crosby did it 8 times, Malkin 4 times, Getzlaf 3, Kopitar 1, Toews 0)

Good luck, Leon.

Gayfish July 4, 2017 - 3:19 pm

Lowetide: No. McDavid’s percentage of cap comes in right where his comparable (Crosby) would have had he also signed an 8-year deal at the same career point 97 lands now.

This is inaccurate. It is basically 2 million more with crosby’s percentage. Only guy close is ovechkin, which would work out to 12.5. Not to mention the long stretch that these teams struggled. Under the weight of these contracts.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 3:17 pm

vinotintazo: Agree here not even a flames fan would take Gaudreau over Drai.

They might if he is $9 million/ yr

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 3:14 pm

Thinker:
How would this blog have treated the Eberle signing in retrospect? I think that gives us the best idea of how we should treat Leon.

Everyone was very pleased. :-

https://lowetide.ca/2012/08/30/eberle-signs/

leadfarmer July 4, 2017 - 3:13 pm

People who compare the Crosby second contract to Mcdavids potential contract fail to take account of the salary cap environment. When Crosby signed that contract it was expected that the salary cap was going to rise fairly sharply. So while those numbers look similar as a percentage at initial signing the cap was expected to make that number shrink fairly quickly. We are in a flat cap era now. Maybe even worse since the Nhlpa just had to use a 5% escalator so cap didn’t go down.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 3:13 pm

Bag of Pucks: But Crosby played his entire 2 first seasons (minus 4 games) while Connor missed nearly half his rookie season.

If we’re getting hung up on sample size for Leon, shouldn’t the same apply to Connor in the assignment of his comps?

This comparison (if its good enough for Connor, why should it not apply to Leon) misses the point.

Leon is a very good player. But he is in the range of the top 30-40 players in the league. He can be replaced, not easily, but he can be replaced. The Oilers can get a 2 C elsewhere and be very good with Connor 1C

McDavid is the best 20- 25 yr old in the NHL and one of the top 2 players in the league. He is irreplaceable. His presence means that 25-35 % of the time the Oilers have the best player on the ice, and one that can dominate. That’s a massive advantage that flows all through the lineup. And if you lock him up, you are really guaranteeing a competitive team for as long as he is around.

And you can’t pay them both huge bucks.

If you think Leon should make $9 million, then you think he should be traded, because the math does not work after this year.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 3:13 pm

Side: If Leon does get $9 million, what will be your expectations of him going forward?Should he run his own line? Should he keep playing with McDavid as a winger? And what numbers will you be expecting him to put up going forward?

Not trying to be a dink at all, lol, I’m genuinely curious.$9 million comes with a lot of expectations.

I think he should’ve been a 2C yesterday. Expectations being he drives the line and scores at a .ppg rate consistent with the 12 best C in the league by year 2 of the contract and onward.

The points expectation is tough because so much of it is dependent on deployment and pp time. Will Leon eventually eat the tough match to free up Connor or does McDavid draw that in perpetuity? As we’ve so often seen, that can depend on who has the hot hand and hot linemates.

The other thing is, I don’t think you want to place all the expectations for contract performance on offensive goals. What if Draisaitl morphs into a Kopitar or Bergeron. Would you be upset if he’s a dominant 200ft C in contention for the Selke every year and only scoring 65-70 points? That sounds a lot like Toews to me. I would take that.

VOR July 4, 2017 - 3:12 pm

speeds,

I am using Kopitar a) because Draisaitl has made it very clear Kopitar is the player he has modeled his career on and b) because Lowetide and a lot of others keep using Sidney Crosby as the comparable contract for McDavid. Kopitar signed in 2009 and didn’t Crosby sign in 2008.

So if Crosby is your chosen comparable for McDavid why can’t Kopitar be mine for Draisaitl?

vinotintazo July 4, 2017 - 3:10 pm

Bag of Pucks: Seriously, Gaudreau? Leon will be eating ‘Johnny Hockey’s’ lunch for the next 9 years.

Agree here not even a flames fan would take Gaudreau over Drai.

Gayfish July 4, 2017 - 3:08 pm

leadfarmer:
Yeah not a big fan of people painting Drai as greedy when McDavid wants to be the highest paid player in the league by 3 million dollars when the good portion of that is RFA when he should be a discount.Drai wants to be paid like Getzlaf, Perry and Voracek.Not too unreasonable.McDavid wants to fire cap structure into the sun.I’m sure they will come to an agreement

I agree. There are guys who have made $14 in raw dollars, but McDavid’s cap hit is like a second liner and Toews/ Kane. You have to do the deal because he is the Franchise, but there is no doubt he is asking for a ridiculous amount.

PunjabiOil July 4, 2017 - 3:07 pm

Those all seem pretty obvious.

Not to me.

Obvious/sensible play would be to sign a veteran free agent on a 1 year contract.

Oilers are hell bent to put their younger players in a position to fail, in roster spots in the lineup they haven’t earned.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 3:06 pm

speeds: How does this mesh with your argument re: Draisaitl vs. McDavid and their relative pay?

Hey, I’ll readily admit that my appreciation of Leon as a player can get in the way of pristine objectivity, but I do what I can to keep the logic scales balanced.

LT says as much about RNH.

We all have our favourites!

Side July 4, 2017 - 3:05 pm

Bag of Pucks: Horcoff, Pisani, etc. didn’t kill the regular season in points production to the extent that Leon did.

I get why Oiler fans feel burned over those contracts, but Leon shouldn’t pay the price for Lowe’s poor skills.

If Leon does get $9 million, what will be your expectations of him going forward? Should he run his own line? Should he keep playing with McDavid as a winger? And what numbers will you be expecting him to put up going forward?

Not trying to be a dink at all, lol, I’m genuinely curious. $9 million comes with a lot of expectations.

Gayfish July 4, 2017 - 3:04 pm

How would this blog have treated the Eberle signing in retrospect? I think that gives us the best idea of how we should treat Leon.

Munny July 4, 2017 - 3:02 pm

PunjabiOil:
Stauffer:

1.Preparing us for a RNH trade (not sure now or down the road).Mentioned Arizona has interest.
2.Connor’s contract could end up being 13.5M
3.No wingers/UFAs until next summer.

Enjoy.

Those all seem pretty obvious.

leadfarmer July 4, 2017 - 3:00 pm

Yeah not a big fan of people painting Drai as greedy when McDavid wants to be the highest paid player in the league by 3 million dollars when the good portion of that is RFA when he should be a discount. Drai wants to be paid like Getzlaf, Perry and Voracek. Not too unreasonable. McDavid wants to fire cap structure into the sun. I’m sure they will come to an agreement

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 3:00 pm

vinotintazo: he put up a Triple award season after his unfortunate injury and played 82 + all playoff games. Not sure that is a small sample size.

It’s as small as Leon’s sample. 8th in regular season scoring. 8th in playoff scoring. Not Hart and Lindsay, but not chopped liver either.

Seriously, Gaudreau? Leon will be eating ‘Johnny Hockey’s’ lunch for the next 9 years.

PunjabiOil July 4, 2017 - 3:00 pm

Stauffer:

1. Preparing us for a RNH trade (not sure now or down the road). Mentioned Arizona has interest.
2. Connor’s contract could end up being 13.5M
3. No wingers/UFAs until next summer.

Enjoy.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 2:59 pm

Honestly, I think this will be much ado over nothing.

Leon’s camp is coming in high at $9 and Chiarelli is likely camping at $7. They’ll split the difference. We’ll all grumble a bit and then hope like hell the players cover the bet.

vinotintazo July 4, 2017 - 2:58 pm

Bag of Pucks: But Crosby played his entire 2 first seasons (minus 4 games) while Connor missed nearly half his rookie season.

If we’re getting hung up on sample size for Leon, shouldn’t the same apply to Connor in the assignment of his comps?

he put up a Triple award season after his unfortunate injury and played 82 + all playoff games. Not sure that is a small sample size.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 2:58 pm

Side: Leon did great in the playoffs for sure.But I would hope the Oilers learned their lesson from the 2006 playoffs, where they gave hefty contract extensions to players based on their 2006 playoff performance and they were not able to produce at the same level after that.

If Leon was paid $9 mil, my biggest fear is that he becomes #2 C and starts putting up 50-60 points on his own line, away from a Hall or McDavid.

People are already losing their minds over Connor for potentially getting $13 mil.I can’t imagine how many people will react when they see their $9 million dollar #2 C putting up only 50-60 points.

And if Drai doesn’t play #2 C, then why are we paying him $9 million to be a winger?

Horcoff, Pisani, etc. didn’t kill the regular season in points production to the extent that Leon did.

I get why Oiler fans feel burned over those contracts, but Leon shouldn’t pay the price for Lowe’s poor skills.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 2:55 pm

Lowetide: No. McDavid’s percentage of cap comes in right where his comparable (Crosby) would have had he also signed an 8-year deal at the same career point 97 lands now.

But Crosby played his entire 2 first seasons (minus 4 games) while Connor missed nearly half his rookie season.

If we’re getting hung up on sample size for Leon, shouldn’t the same apply to Connor in the assignment of his comps?

Munny July 4, 2017 - 2:55 pm

Side,

There were some other factors also at play in the 2006 off-season… documented in the Leon Uris novel “Exodus”.

Munny July 4, 2017 - 2:53 pm

who,

While of course there is some element of truth here, the WOWYs show Drai benefitted far more from McDavid than vice versa.

No one, I think, is denying that Drai be paid what he deserves. What we’re trying to do his hammer out what that number might be. Along the way, we’re judging the rumoured number and trying to decide whether it seems right.

Side July 4, 2017 - 2:52 pm

Bag of Pucks: And yet ironically, Leon outscores him (handily) in their first playoffs together.

Incidentally, you would hope to hell the team never plays them off each other like this in the contract talks. Worst team building exercise EVER!

Leon did great in the playoffs for sure. But I would hope the Oilers learned their lesson from the 2006 playoffs, where they gave hefty contract extensions to players based on their 2006 playoff performance and they were not able to produce at the same level after that.

If Leon was paid $9 mil, my biggest fear is that he becomes #2 C and starts putting up 50-60 points on his own line, away from a Hall or McDavid.

People are already losing their minds over Connor for potentially getting $13 mil. I can’t imagine how many people will react when they see their $9 million dollar #2 C putting up only 50-60 points.

And if Drai doesn’t play #2 C, then why are we paying him $9 million to be a winger?

speeds July 4, 2017 - 2:50 pm

Bag of Pucks: If I’m Leon’s agent, I point to my player’s size advantage and playoff scoring as exhibits for the defence. Skilled smurf < Skilled coke machine (i.e. The Unicorn) come the season that matters.

Loved what Strome said about Leon, how impressive it is to see a man that size dishing cross-ice backhand sauce with accuracy. The players know. Leon’s the real deal.

How does this mesh with your argument re: Draisaitl vs. McDavid and their relative pay?

vinotintazo July 4, 2017 - 2:49 pm

Bag of Pucks: And yet ironically, Leon outscores him (handily) in their first playoffs together.

Small sample size… it matters. and one blowout game (7-1) Game 6 inflated that.

who July 4, 2017 - 2:47 pm

UnjustEnrichment:
Godot10 hits the nail on the head right here. The Anaheim series showed what Draisaitl has to offer. Draisaitl was the best player in that series for the Oilers. He played with the strength of a bull and a lot of talent. His passing was, at times, supreme. His combination of brute strength and finesse gives him unique capabilities, in my view. McDavid cannot do it all alone when it comes to the playoffs. We need the bull-like Draisaitl as well, and I wish commentators here would not belittle his talents. He is notdependent upon McDavid. McDavid and Draisaitl depend upon each other, whether they play on the same line or not. If the opponent focuses too exclusively upon one, the other one makes some hay.

If McDavid’s contract is going to be 13.25 million per season, then Draisaitl’s should be 9 million with no questions asked. If we’re going to debate things, then we have to ask why any human being deserves 13.25 million per year to hit a piece of rubber around on a sheet of ice that was built partly with public money. The insanity of it all makes me want to throw up. Hockey is becoming an alternative reality that masks its economic exploitation of us all. Who can afford the tickets?McDavid should really temper his own demands–each additional dollar he makes is less and less valuable to him.–oruse 3 million per year of his 13.25 million salary to buy tickets for underprivileged kids. Why does he NEED 13.25 million per year anyway? If the answer is that he doesn’t need it; but he is entitled to get what the market will pay, then Draisaitl can make the same argument. Notwithstanding what so many have been saying, any team must have, within its own payroll, a kind of economic justice. One player does not a championship team make. If one player is treated like a god, then there will be resentment in the ranks below. That is human nature. If one player’s desireand, gulp, greed, become the be all and the end all, then the others will not be happy. That is Psychology 101.

Finally someone hits the nail on the head. Getting tired of people dissing Drai over his contract demands. I would like to see him sign for as little as possible too but there seems to be a double standard here.
Apparently MacDavid gets what he wants because he’s MacDavid but Drai is unproven and is being zoomed by linemates. They both have the same sample size in the NHL. You cannot say that Drai fed off MacDavid without acknowledging that MacDavid fed off Drai last year as well. Maybe Drai wouldn’t have hit 77 pts without Connor but then it is also probable that MacDavid doesn’t hit 100 without Drai. Same goes for the year previous with Hall.
Seems to me that MacDavid was starting to scuffle a bit just before they put Drai on his line last year and the two just took off together.
Don’t really have an opinion on where the salaries should be and there is no doubt that MacDavid deserves to be the highest paid player in the league but lets hold him to the same standard that everyone is holding Drai too.

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 2:47 pm

Bag of Pucks: Logically then, is Connor fair value at $13.5 M per? As good as he is, he’s one player. I think that prohibitive cap hit does your team more damage than the 2nd best player in your Top 6 getting $9M.

We’re debating Leon being worth $9 M and Connor’s allegedly getting $13 M, So, Connor is 40% more valuable to the team than Leon? No doubt he is to Katz on the revenue side, but on ice performance?

I think that’s a difficult argument to make.

At the very least, can we agree both numbers are inflated?

No. McDavid’s percentage of cap comes in right where his comparable (Crosby) would have had he also signed an 8-year deal at the same career point 97 lands now.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 2:42 pm

Side: Because Connor is so good there is absolutely no way he could regress, except for aging or injury. He is a generational player. The exception to the rule.Connor’s game has been analyzed and dissected by many, many people since he was a child. Connor has so far, lived up to the expectations of his performance and doing so at the age of 19.

Draisaitl has had his struggles getting into the league and we’re still uncertain as to what he can do.Can you say with 100% certainty that he is a #1 center in this league?

30 teams in the NHL would move heaven and earth to get McDavid on their team for 13 mil x 8. I can’t say that 30 teams would do the same to get Drai at 9×8 on their team.

And yet ironically, Leon outscores him (handily) in their first playoffs together.

Incidentally, you would hope to hell the team never plays them off each other like this in the contract talks. Worst team building exercise EVER!

Side July 4, 2017 - 2:38 pm

Bag of Pucks: Agreed, but interestingly all the same arguments about small sample size could just as easily be applied to Connoer as well, as someone else rightly pointed out up the thread. But one is Jesus who walks on water until proven otherwise while the other’s name is Mud?

Because Connor is so good there is absolutely no way he could regress, except for aging or injury. He is a generational player. The exception to the rule. Connor’s game has been analyzed and dissected by many, many people since he was a child. Connor has so far, lived up to the expectations of his performance and doing so at the age of 19.

Draisaitl has had his struggles getting into the league and we’re still uncertain as to what he can do. Can you say with 100% certainty that he is a #1 center in this league?

30 teams in the NHL would move heaven and earth to get McDavid on their team for 13 mil x 8. I can’t say that 30 teams would do the same to get Drai at 9×8 on their team.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 2:35 pm

VOR:
LT,

There is a least one comparable that comes in at nearly bang on $9,000,000. That would be Anze Kopitar. He got 11.99% of the cap coming out of his ELC. Today that would be just a hair short of $9,000,000.

In the two full regular seasons Draisaitl has played his even strength point production and underlying metrics have been as good or better than the man he says he modeled his game and career on. That is Draisaitl has been better at EVP/60 than Kopitar at the same ages 20 and 21.

Guess how Kopitar got LA to give him 11.99% of the cap? Hint: he signed October 11th, 2008.

Why use a comp that’s 8 years old, from a different cap environment, when there are any number of much more current comparables?

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 2:34 pm

If hockey is a business, the Oilers have to seriously consider the implications to the cap regardless of how they or the player feels if they want to avoid other team’s mistakes. Leon and Connor ‘have’ to drive separate and very strong lines regardless of teammates because of how much salary has to go out to have them as it looks.

Because of Russell and the Nurse/Benning contracts the Oilers D will become expensive, 6 players getting paid, whereas a lot of teams with a great top 4 use cheap players third pair and they don’t play much. Perhaps they could sign them to one year cheaper deals until Sekera and/or Russell can be moved. Otherwise it’s a forward, and it will be slim pickens unless at least one youth really steps up

Munny July 4, 2017 - 2:33 pm

Munny: Not sure what the purpose of Chia publicly stating he will match any OS served.

To expand on this further… if you are a rival GM, aren’t you more likely to throw out a highly-inflated OS if you know the other GM is determined to match?

Obviously, one can really mess with a team’s salary structure this way.

The only thing that seems to prevent such shenanigans is that there are internal consequences within the cadre for such actions.

Does Liut have an OS for $12M ready to go, if he doesn’t get his way?

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 2:30 pm

speeds: Completely inadmissible, no.but what about this comparison, from earlier in the thread?

Last summer, Gaudreau finished t-6th in NHL scoring the previous season, signed a 6 year deal, 6.75M AAV, that included 5 years before UFA and 1 UFA year.

This summer, Draisaitl finished 8th in NHL scoring the previous season, and has 5 years before he reaches UFA status. Not entirely dissimilar!

If I’m Leon’s agent, I point to my player’s size advantage and playoff scoring as exhibits for the defence. Skilled smurf < Skilled coke machine (i.e. The Unicorn) come the season that matters.

Loved what Strome said about Leon, how impressive it is to see a man that size dishing cross-ice backhand sauce with accuracy. The players know. Leon's the real deal.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 2:30 pm

jtblack:
Lowetide,

True dat.“That’s a small sample size. ”but this IS the sample size.PC cant say wait 1 more yr to prove it. This was Leons prove it yr, and he did.If PC would have aigned Leon last July to a 5 yr deal at $5.5 per, Oiler Nation would have thrown their arms up.Leon stepped up, had an epic yr and now he gets paid.PC has very little choice

He has all kinds of choices, barring an offer sheet.

slopitch July 4, 2017 - 2:27 pm

Random trade idea: Given how hard it is to find dmen, it would be good for the Oilers to dangle JP for Trouba. For the Oilers, their top 4 D is loaded and there are RW options available via ufa at a discount. Of course WPG would need to see value in having the Finnish duo, which they may if Trouba still wants out.

Ribs July 4, 2017 - 2:27 pm

Ribs: So what’s a comfortable number for this to work? How far off is it from nine?

Sorry, re-reading the blog post and see that you mention $7M as being “somewhat acceptable”. So we split the difference and go $8M for 8 years. Is that more palatable?

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 2:25 pm

Lowetide: Leon is a fine player. His comparables based on regular season performance are many miles from $9 million per season. There’s no lagging. Only logic.

Logically then, is Connor fair value at $13.5 M per? As good as he is, he’s one player. I think that prohibitive cap hit does your team more damage than the 2nd best player in your Top 6 getting $9M.

We’re debating Leon being worth $9 M and Connor’s allegedly getting $13 M, So, Connor is 40% more valuable to the team than Leon? No doubt he is to Katz on the revenue side, but on ice performance?

I think that’s a difficult argument to make.

At the very least, can we agree both numbers are inflated?

Munny July 4, 2017 - 2:24 pm

Ducey: There may not be one.

If I am Chia, I might take the picks and trade them for a replacement. Two firsts and a second might get you McKinnon,or maybe a rebounding Landeskog plus a prospect.

IMO, that’s the worst case scenario.

If draft picks could bring a team Landy or McNondeity, those players would already be traded. We would be facing a massive value loss taking the picks.

It would be better to trade Drai for players prior to an offer sheet dropping than take the picks.

I’m just wondering what Liut has in his back pocket and how Chia can divine that info.

How badly does Drai want to play with not-McDavid, and is that worth, say, a mill a year to him?

Not sure what the purpose of Chia publicly stating he will match any OS served.

Ribs July 4, 2017 - 2:22 pm

Lowetide: That was a long time ago, there are more updated comps. Anze Kopitar didn’t have McDavid on his team, he was the lead dog. Others are arguing this far better than I, but for me it’s not really about Leon maxing his contract with the Oilers. If that’s his goal, he needs to shop for an offer sheet. Chiarelli can’t afford to give him $9 million, now or in October. The math can’t work.

So what’s a comfortable number for this to work? How far off is it from nine?

treevojo July 4, 2017 - 2:17 pm

Lowetide: That was a long time ago, there are more updated comps. Anze Kopitar didn’t have McDavid on his team, he was the lead dog. Others are arguing this far better than I, but for me it’s not really about Leon maxing his contract with the Oilers. If that’s his goal, he needs to shop for an offer sheet. Chiarelli can’t afford to give him $9 million, now or in October. The math can’t work.

I think the play is for Chiarelli to offer whatever is deemed market value for a Rfa in Leon’s position using appropriate comparables.

You stick to those numbers and allow another gm to offer the inflated contract.

You then sign the offer sheet and allow that gm to be poo pood around the league for inflating contracts for rfas.

Leon gets what he wants and Chiarelli isn’t viewed as an idiot among peers and fans.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 2:14 pm

Ducey: Yeah. You have to be ‘convinced’ to give him 8 x $9. Because if you get it wrong (and he just had his career year) then the Oilers are screwed – for a long time. He will need a to carry the load, against the toughs, at C, by himself, because his linemates are likely to be rookies and league average retreads.

I really don’t see the downside (other than a remote chance of an offersheet) of signing for a year or two. Is he going to be offended to get $72 million in a year or two?

Agreed, but interestingly all the same arguments about small sample size could just as easily be applied to Connoer as well, as someone else rightly pointed out up the thread. But one is Jesus who walks on water until proven otherwise while the other’s name is Mud?

For the record, I’m not advocating Chia paying Leon $9 M per for 8 years, Simply pointing out that if you want to buy the best years of a player’s life and he’s coming off a season where he finished 8th in Regular Season AND Playoff scoring, you can expect to pay a premium.

I could see the Oilers bridging Leon for $7.5 M per for 5 years, and as a result, ultimately paying him more in the longterm as the next contract when he’s 27 would be a bank buster. – if they can even resign him at that point.

With the Austins, they got it wrong with 2 of the 3 contracts. But who does Leon more resemble, Hall or RNH & Eberle?

Interestingly, what tends to kill the value on these deals is the playoff wars. What you’re seeing with players like Kopitar and Toews now imo is guys ground down from the wars of attrition. In some instances, these players become victims of their own success. Nice problem for an organization to have.

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 2:09 pm

VOR:
LT,

There is a least one comparable that comes in at nearly bang on $9,000,000. That would be Anze Kopitar. He got 11.99% of the cap coming out of his ELC. Today that would be just a hair short of $9,000,000.

In the two full regular seasons Draisaitl has played his even strength point production and underlying metrics have been as good or better than the man he says he modeled his game and career on. That is Draisaitl has been better at EVP/60 than Kopitar at the same ages 20 and 21.

Guess how Kopitar got LA to give him 11.99% of the cap? Hint: he signed October 11th, 2008.

That was a long time ago, there are more updated comps. Anze Kopitar didn’t have McDavid on his team, he was the lead dog. Others are arguing this far better than I, but for me it’s not really about Leon maxing his contract with the Oilers. If that’s his goal, he needs to shop for an offer sheet. Chiarelli can’t afford to give him $9 million, now or in October. The math can’t work.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 2:05 pm

jtblack:
Lowetide,

True dat.“That’s a small sample size. ”but this IS the sample size.PC cant say wait 1 more yr to prove it. This was Leons prove it yr, and he did.If PC would have aigned Leon last July to a 5 yr deal at $5.5 per, Oiler Nation would have thrown their arms up.Leon stepped up, had an epic yr and now he gets paid.PC has very little choice

I think he has choices. A few he doesn’t want to make. I am sure even if Pete doesn’t think Leon is worth the high cap hit, there are others lurking around the halls who have been longing for the ‘big western conference centre’ for a long long time.

He’ll get paid, I don’t think it will drag out all summer, but Pete is establishing a little bit of position on Leon and others down the road by not rushing. We love you, you’re great, but …..

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 2:04 pm

jtblack:
Lowetide,

True dat.“That’s a small sample size. ”but this IS the sample size.PC cant say wait 1 more yr to prove it. This was Leons prove it yr, and he did.If PC would have aigned Leon last July to a 5 yr deal at $5.5 per, Oiler Nation would have thrown their arms up.Leon stepped up, had an epic yr and now he gets paid.PC has very little choice

I understand Leon’s position and have sympathy for it. I do believe he could get more on another team. The problem is that this is McDavid’s team and is going to be built around 97. So, the question isn’t “can we get these two contracts done under $20M?” the question is “Will Leon agree to X in order for him to proceed with this team?”

At least that’s my opinion.

treevojo July 4, 2017 - 2:03 pm

UnjustEnrichment:
Contrary to what Lowetide suggests, the playoffs are a wonderful and special test of each player’sgenuine mettle and value. Draisaitl passed that test with flying colors.Several others did as well. Regular season games are more of an endurance challenge than a test of true mettle and value when the chips are down. The failure to see or appreciate the true value of playoff performances is one of the reasons why Taylor Hall was overvalued–we had only regular season stats upon which to measure his value. The players who deserve the highest valuations are those who show up when there is something at stake. What metric do we have for that?

For those who are so enamored of analytics, I wonder how much variation there is between each player’s regular season stats and his playoff stats? One of the analytics gurus should spend some time thinking about that.

You seem to have a lot to say on the subject.

Why don’t you use the math skills that are tought in grade 8 and come back with your findings to enlighten the group.

VOR July 4, 2017 - 2:02 pm

LT,

There is a least one comparable that comes in at nearly bang on $9,000,000. That would be Anze Kopitar. He got 11.99% of the cap coming out of his ELC. Today that would be just a hair short of $9,000,000.

In the two full regular seasons Draisaitl has played his even strength point production and underlying metrics have been as good or better than the man he says he modeled his game and career on. That is Draisaitl has been better at EVP/60 than Kopitar at the same ages 20 and 21.

Guess how Kopitar got LA to give him 11.99% of the cap? Hint: he signed October 11th, 2008.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 2:02 pm

N64: If Chia doesn’t offer more than 2 years an does an offer sheet have to bring multiple firsts?

Its based on AAV not years

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 1:59 pm

Lowetide,

True dat. “That’s a small sample size. ” but this IS the sample size. PC cant say wait 1 more yr to prove it. This was Leons prove it yr, and he did. If PC would have aigned Leon last July to a 5 yr deal at $5.5 per, Oiler Nation would have thrown their arms up. Leon stepped up, had an epic yr and now he gets paid. PC has very little choice

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 1:58 pm

Pouzar:
Terry Jones‏Verified account
@byterryjones
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Expecting Connor McDavid contract press conference to be held Wednesday.

Hopefully Leon soon after and we can debate the actual numbers.

Pouzar July 4, 2017 - 1:52 pm

Terry Jones‏Verified account
@byterryjones
Following
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Expecting Connor McDavid contract press conference to be held Wednesday.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 1:45 pm

Pouzar:
David Pagnotta‏
@TheFourthPeriod
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Can confirm the NY Rangers have agreed to terms with center David Desharnais

It’ll be interesting to see if capt Kirk was worth it. Still pretty lean at centre.

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 1:43 pm

Bag of Pucks: So finishing 8th overall in regular season scoring is now completely inadmissible because his linemate is McJesus?

Wow, I was impressed when Gretzky temporarily turned Lumley into Simmer, but McDavid turning Bonsignore into Kopitar, that has to be the best magic trick ever.

If I’m Leon’s camp, I respond to that argument with: Leon took the opportunity and ran with it. That speaks to skill and hockey IQ.Lets we forget, Eberle was handed the same opportunity and failed miserably.

Really surprised to see you as one of the stragglers on this train, LT. Sure, a bargain contract is preferable, but what surprises me more is that you still doubt what the Oilers have in this player? Memorial Cup. World Cup. Playoffs. He’s played well at every level up. I guess the only thing that will convince you he’s elite is time/sample size.

Either that or you’re stumping harder for RNH than I ever would’ve thought humanly possible.

Leon is a fine player. His comparables based on regular season performance are many miles from $9 million per season. There’s no lagging. Only logic.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 1:42 pm

Ducey: There may not be one.

If I am Chia, I might take the picks and trade them for a replacement. Two firsts and a second might get you McKinnon,or maybe a rebounding Landeskog plus a prospect.

If Chia doesn’t offer more than 2 years an does an offer sheet have to bring multiple firsts?

N64 July 4, 2017 - 1:39 pm

rickithebear:

both for 8yr
8.337M + 13.666 = 22.00M

I would hope for
8 @ 8M
8 @ 13M
which is the same cap as Toews + Kane.

Good info. Welcome to the 21s

https://lowetide.ca/2017/07/03/the-davenport-hotel/#comment-658202

21 million cap hit.
168 over 8 years.
Yeah it’s probably closer to 22 to get 8 from both.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 1:39 pm

Munny:
If Chia refuses to offer anything longer than two years to Drai, does he then sign the nearest available offer sheet?

There may not be one.

If I am Chia, I might take the picks and trade them for a replacement. Two firsts and a second might get you McKinnon,or maybe a rebounding Landeskog plus a prospect.

--hudson-- July 4, 2017 - 1:39 pm

Terry Jones @byterryjones
Expecting Connor McDavid contract press conference to be held Wednesday.

https://twitter.com/byterryjones/status/882319179654627328

Side July 4, 2017 - 1:38 pm

UnjustEnrichment:
Contrary to what Lowetide suggests, the playoffs are a wonderful and special test of each player’sgenuine mettle and value. Draisaitl passed that test with flying colors.Several others did as well. Regular season games are more of an endurance challenge than a test of true mettle and value when the chips are down. The failure to see or appreciate the true value of playoff performances is one of the reasons why Taylor Hall was overvalued–we had only regular season stats upon which to measure his value. The players who deserve the highest valuations are those who show up when there is something at stake. What metric do we have for that?

For those who are so enamored of analytics, I wonder how much variation there is between each player’s regular season stats and his playoff stats? One of the analytics gurus should spend some time thinking about that.

Didn’t the Oilers gave some players who performed very well in the 2006 playoffs nice contracts after their 2006 Playoff run? Contracts the players didn’t live up to afterwards which subsequently caused the fans to run them out of town?

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 1:33 pm

Yak to the Avs – 1 yr $875K

Last chance Texaco.

Munny July 4, 2017 - 1:32 pm

If Chia refuses to offer anything longer than two years to Drai, does he then sign the nearest available offer sheet?

rickithebear July 4, 2017 - 1:27 pm

when discussing past contracts:

I look at them as a % of Next seasons cap.

Crosby’s post ELC contract was 5yr @ 8.7M
with a 56.7M cap the next season.
8.7M/56.7 = 15.344%

so it is not unreasonable for Mcdavids camp to ask for
5yr @ (75 x .15344) (11.508M)

whne I look at the young forwards being talked about.
we see an average base of 9.361%
5 @ (75 x .09361); (7.021M)

When look ing at buying ufa Years or Increase in production.
we see .0625 being the standard year by back.

Mcdavid:
5yr @ 11.508M

buying 1 UFA year .0625
11.508 x 1.0625 = 12.227M
6yr @ 12.227M

buying 2 UFA yr. .125
11.508 x 1.125 = 12.947
7yr @ 12.947M

buying 3 yrs .1875
11.508 x 1.1875 = 13.666M
8yr @ 13.666M

Draisatl
75 x .09361 = 7.021M
5yr @ 7.021M

buying 1yr
7.021 x 1.0625 = 7.46M
6yr @ 7.46M

buying 2 yr
7.021 x 1.125 = 7.899M
7yr @ 7.89M

buying 3yr
7.021 x 1.1875 = 8.337M
8yr @ 8.337M

both at 5yr
7.021 + 11.508 = 18.53M

both for 6yr
7.46 + 12.227 = 19.69M

both for 7yr
7.89M + 12.947M = 20.84M

both for 8yr
8.337M + 13.666 = 22.00M

I would hope for
8 @ 8M
8 @ 13M
which is the same cap as Toews + Kane.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 1:27 pm

Bag of Pucks:

I guess the only thing that will convince you he’s elite is time/sample size.

Yeah. You have to be ‘convinced’ to give him 8 x $9. Because if you get it wrong (and he just had his career year) then the Oilers are screwed – for a long time. He will need a to carry the load, against the toughs, at C, by himself, because his linemates are likely to be rookies and league average retreads.

I really don’t see the downside (other than a remote chance of an offersheet) of signing for a year or two. Is he going to be offended to get $72 million in a year or two?

Munny July 4, 2017 - 1:27 pm

speeds,

You’ve been ripping the horse hide off the Rawlings today, Mr. Speidel.

UnjustEnrichment July 4, 2017 - 1:26 pm

Contrary to what Lowetide suggests, the playoffs are a wonderful and special test of each player’s genuine mettle and value. Draisaitl passed that test with flying colors. Several others did as well. Regular season games are more of an endurance challenge than a test of true mettle and value when the chips are down. The failure to see or appreciate the true value of playoff performances is one of the reasons why Taylor Hall was overvalued–we had only regular season stats upon which to measure his value. The players who deserve the highest valuations are those who show up when there is something at stake. What metric do we have for that?

For those who are so enamored of analytics, I wonder how much variation there is between each player’s regular season stats and his playoff stats? One of the analytics gurus should spend some time thinking about that.

UnjustEnrichment July 4, 2017 - 1:20 pm

By the way, in case we have forgotten, corporations are not people. Corporations just pretend to be people; but they are legal fictions that can escape the responsibilities that real people must face. Corporations may buy tickets and get tax write-offs; real people cannot.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 1:17 pm

Bag of Pucks: So finishing 8th overall in regular season scoring is now completely inadmissible because his linemate is McJesus?

Wow, I was impressed when Gretzky temporarily turned Lumley into Simmer, but McDavid turning Bonsignore into Kopitar, that has to be the best magic trick ever.

If I’m Leon’s camp, I respond to that argument with: Leon took the opportunity and ran with it. That speaks to skill and hockey IQ.Lets we forget, Eberle was handed the same opportunity and failed miserably.

Really surprised to see you as one of the stragglers on this train, LT. Sure, a bargain contract is preferable, but what surprises me more is that you still doubt what the Oilers have in this player? Memorial Cup. World Cup. Playoffs. He’s played well at every level up. I guess the only thing that will convince you is time/sample size.

Completely inadmissible, no. but what about this comparison, from earlier in the thread?

Last summer, Gaudreau finished t-6th in NHL scoring the previous season, signed a 6 year deal, 6.75M AAV, that included 5 years before UFA and 1 UFA year.

This summer, Draisaitl finished 8th in NHL scoring the previous season, and has 5 years before he reaches UFA status. Not entirely dissimilar! ?

Side July 4, 2017 - 1:16 pm

Bag of Pucks:

If I’m Leon’s camp, I respond to that argument with: Leon took the opportunity and ran with it. That speaks to skill and hockey IQ.

I don’t know if that’s a good argument. I’m sure there are lots of wingers who would jump at the opportunity to play with McDavid for less than 9 million a year.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 1:12 pm

Lowetide:
Paying Leon $9 million comes from the playoff performance. That’s a small sample size. Unwise.

So finishing 8th overall in regular season scoring is now completely inadmissible because his linemate is McJesus?

Wow, I was impressed when Gretzky temporarily turned Lumley into Simmer, but McDavid turning Bonsignore into Kopitar, that has to be the best magic trick ever.

If I’m Leon’s camp, I respond to that argument with: Leon took the opportunity and ran with it. That speaks to skill and hockey IQ. Lets we forget, Eberle was handed the same opportunity and failed miserably.

Really surprised to see you as one of the stragglers on this train, LT. Sure, a bargain contract is preferable, but what surprises me more is that you still doubt what the Oilers have in this player? Memorial Cup. World Cup. Playoffs. He’s played well at every level up. I guess the only thing that will convince you he’s elite is time/sample size.

Either that or you’re stumping harder for RNH than I ever would’ve thought humanly possible.

Side July 4, 2017 - 1:12 pm

Lowetide:
Paying Leon $9 million comes from the playoff performance. That’s a small sample size. Unwise.

What do you mean? It worked great for the Oilers after their 2006 playoff run.

(sarcasm)

DevilsLettuce July 4, 2017 - 1:10 pm

Lowetide:
Paying Leon $9 million comes from the playoff performance. That’s a small sample size. Unwise.

To be fair he had a pretty stellar regular season as well, near 80pts, zigged with Mcdavid when everyone else zagged.

DevilsLettuce July 4, 2017 - 1:08 pm

If the Oilers are attempting to buy some of Drai’s UFA years it’s going to be in the 9million range, numbers are only going to climb if he continues along side Mcdavid, his next contract in a few years will be over 10.

Hopefully the Oilers can avoid a Subban type situation and just purchase the years in good faith.

If he’s actually on the market only a Mackinnon package would satisfy, maybe Laine.

Montreal is screaming themselves to sleep now for not lowering the ask from the Oilers last summer.

Gret99zky July 4, 2017 - 1:05 pm

I wonder if Chia will advise TMac not to play contract year players on the McDavid line. Only players with a term contract already in place.

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 1:02 pm

Paying Leon $9 million comes from the playoff performance. That’s a small sample size. Unwise.

Munny July 4, 2017 - 12:54 pm

UnjustEnrichment: It is capitalism gone crazy.

Actually, it is an example of the folly of socialism. There is nothing free market about this situation.

jake70 July 4, 2017 - 12:53 pm

Just want to say some excellent comments/points being made by the crowd in here today. Great discussion on the two contracts. Bravo. Carry on.

Side July 4, 2017 - 12:47 pm

UnjustEnrichment:
One player does not a championship team make. If one player is treated like a god, then there will be resentment in the ranks below. That is human nature. If one player’s desireand, gulp, greed, become the be all and the end all, then the others will not be happy. That is Psychology 101.

On the flip side

“In Vancouver, the Sedins’ humble approach to being compensated set the bar that much lower in Vancouver. Privately however, many of their teammates disliked the practice. And inside the walls of the NHL Players’ Association, taking less salary for any reason is frowned upon, much less when one bad deal (in their eyes) begets the next.”

Connor is worth $13 mil and should be paid as such. It’s obvious he is a generational player and has already put up a 100 point season (might have even been his second if he wasn’t injured in his first season). And if Connor takes $10 mil, there’s no way that Drai would get $9 million and would probably be offered less. Nothing greedy about getting paid what you’re worth.

Draisaitl is not as clear cut. There is still a lot to see from him before we know what he truly is. Is he worth $9 mil? or is he worth closer to the $7.5 range? Hard to tell, I think he should be closer to 7.5 mil. What I don’t want to see is Drai get $9 million, become #2 center and only put up 50-60 points when away from McDavid. Now that would lead to resentment more than McDavid’s $13 mil contract would.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 12:44 pm

UnjustEnrichment,

For the reasons you mention, I very much believe Chiarelli is negotiating with both camps individually and as a pair. Just like the Austins, they’ll want to announce these signings as the ‘new core’ and under terms where they’re certain both Connor and Leon are both locked up AND satisfied with the final result. If they come out of this with Connor on an 8 year deal and Leon on a 2-3 year bridge, that’s an epic fail in my estimation.

McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Larsson, Talbot

For better or worse, that’s the new core. And luckily for us, it’s a core that is capable of winning Stanleys. Don’t blow it now over a contractual pissing match OR by backing up the Brinks truck for one superstar while treating your other Top Ten scorer like trade bait.

UnjustEnrichment July 4, 2017 - 12:43 pm

jtblack,

It is capitalism gone crazy. But if that is so, then pay Draisaitl what he is entitled to on the free market–which changes day by day. Don’t short-change him. See if you can build a winner when one guy makes 13.25 million per year and another 9+ per year. I suspect not. We will have to get used to a lot of player movement on the rest of the team. Maybe Kevin Lowe and Craig McTavish will have to suit up to fill some of the gaps. There is more than enough to go around, but not enough to go around. It makes no sense. The greed makes me want to spend my time teaching my kid badminton instead of watching her play hockey.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 12:43 pm

jtblack:
speeds,

“Kucherov signed a 3 year bridge last fall for 4.8M AAV.
Panarin a 2 year bridge for 6M AAV.”

The problem with the Bridge deal is the Hawks dealt Panarin becuase they knew they couldn’t resign him next year. And the Bolts likely won’t be able to re sign Kucherov, as he will command $9 – $11 mil per … So although it’s great to get the player for 2 or 3 years at a reasonable cap hit, you also Greatly increase the odds of not being able to resign the player if their productions stays high or increases …

It’s that last part that is of particular importance in the case of Draisaitl and the Oilers – will he put up as many points if he’s playing C on his own line vs. playing RW with McDavid?

Additionally, Panarin is a UFA at the end of his 2 year bridge, while Draisaitl would still have 3 RFA years if he and EDM signed a 2 year bridge this summer.

Pouzar July 4, 2017 - 12:41 pm

David Pagnotta‏
@TheFourthPeriod
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Can confirm the NY Rangers have agreed to terms with center David Desharnais

speeds July 4, 2017 - 12:36 pm

N64: I did not mean that bridges were eroding.

Last summer, Gaudreau finished t-6th in NHL scoring the previous season, signed a 6 year deal, 6.75M AAV, that included 5 years before UFA and 1 UFA year.

This summer, Draisaitl finished 8th in NHL scoring the previous season, and has 5 years before he reaches UFA status. Not entirely dissimilar! 😉

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 12:36 pm

UnjustEnrichment,

“Who can afford the tickets? ” – Corporations and people. As long as the arenas are close to full and the TV contracts are lucrative; sports athletes will continue to earn fortune 500 money as individuals .. That’s just the reality of our world … Dr. will make $1 Million per year saving lives. Same as 4th line left winger in hockey. Remember hockey has one of the lowest salary structures in sport behind Baseball, NFL, Basketball, Golf, etc …

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 12:31 pm

speeds,

“Kucherov signed a 3 year bridge last fall for 4.8M AAV.
Panarin a 2 year bridge for 6M AAV.”

The problem with the Bridge deal is the Hawks dealt Panarin becuase they knew they couldn’t resign him next year. And the Bolts likely won’t be able to re sign Kucherov, as he will command $9 – $11 mil per … So although it’s great to get the player for 2 or 3 years at a reasonable cap hit, you also Greatly increase the odds of not being able to resign the player if their productions stays high or increases …

UnjustEnrichment July 4, 2017 - 12:30 pm

Godot10 hits the nail on the head right here. The Anaheim series showed what Draisaitl has to offer. Draisaitl was the best player in that series for the Oilers. He played with the strength of a bull and a lot of talent. His passing was, at times, supreme. His combination of brute strength and finesse gives him unique capabilities, in my view. McDavid cannot do it all alone when it comes to the playoffs. We need the bull-like Draisaitl as well, and I wish commentators here would not belittle his talents. He is not dependent upon McDavid. McDavid and Draisaitl depend upon each other, whether they play on the same line or not. If the opponent focuses too exclusively upon one, the other one makes some hay.

If McDavid’s contract is going to be 13.25 million per season, then Draisaitl’s should be 9 million with no questions asked. If we’re going to debate things, then we have to ask why any human being deserves 13.25 million per year to hit a piece of rubber around on a sheet of ice that was built partly with public money. The insanity of it all makes me want to throw up. Hockey is becoming an alternative reality that masks its economic exploitation of us all. Who can afford the tickets? McDavid should really temper his own demands–each additional dollar he makes is less and less valuable to him.–or use 3 million per year of his 13.25 million salary to buy tickets for underprivileged kids. Why does he NEED 13.25 million per year anyway? If the answer is that he doesn’t need it; but he is entitled to get what the market will pay, then Draisaitl can make the same argument. Notwithstanding what so many have been saying, any team must have, within its own payroll, a kind of economic justice. One player does not a championship team make. If one player is treated like a god, then there will be resentment in the ranks below. That is human nature. If one player’s desire and, gulp, greed, become the be all and the end all, then the others will not be happy. That is Psychology 101.

godot10: You did watch the Anaheim series, where Draisaitl was the best forward on the ice, and it wasn’t particularly close.

Draisaitl has been improving year over year.He keeps taking steps forward, after shorter and shorter plateaus.**

**This is all becoming ironic, because I was a Bennett guy.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 12:28 pm

speeds: Kucherov signed a 3 year bridge last fall for 4.8M AAV.
Panarin a 2 year bridge for 6M AAV.

I did not mean that bridges were eroding. 😉

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 12:26 pm

Cassandra,

Not meant to mean any other than for people to look at point production and contract value .. there is probably a website that has a point per million scale .. Here are some of the worse contracts out there .. players with high salaries and less than 50 points …

Spezza – 50 pts $7.5
Thornton – 50 $8
Marlieau – 46 $6.25
Okposo – 45 $6
J.Staal – 45 $6
D Sedin – 44 $7
Parise – 42 $7.5
Duchene 41 $6
Stastny 40 $7
Brassard 39 $5
Nash 38 $7.8
Backes 38 $6
Ryan 25 $7.25

Kinger_Oil.redux July 4, 2017 - 12:24 pm

– Tough to be GM: the outcomes of scenarios discussed here: Overpay, Sucks, Idiot or Works:

1) Sign Leon to max 8 years and Chia is either an idiot for over-paying, Drai sucks, or it works
2) Sign Leon to a shorter term deal and Chia is either an idiot because he should have signed him up for longer, because look at how much we have to pay him now, Drai sucks, or it works
3) Do something in between, and its the same logic tree: paid too much/too little, should have known better, an idiot, terrible risk management, etc.

– These two contract negociations and the performance of the players (which he has no control over) basically make or break Chia’s legacy if you think about it…

– it is also interesting the unanimity in paying McD the highest salary by 30% of any hockey player, yet Drai should sign for what one thinks or get traded

– In the interest of self-preservation: its best to get the longest contract signed, then if it doesn’t work out: management puts blame on player, but even then he’s an idiot for over-paying…

Munny July 4, 2017 - 12:24 pm

LT said… “There are clear needs on this team (RH second pairing)”

Did everyone miss the Russell signing? Chia won’t be dipping a toe into the extremely thin 2nd pairing RHD market now. He made sure he got his 2RD prior to FA and had to pay handsomely for the privilege.

If you are expecting a top 4 RD incoming, you will be sorely disappointed.

Your suggestion of a LHD, like Markov is more likely. Rumour is he’s looking for a two year deal, which probably explains why there’s no smoke here. One hopes though that amongst Streit, Campbell and Markov, something can be figured out.

The worry of offer sheets on Drai must’ve been coming from his agent. It’s the only hammer he has… other than not playing.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 12:24 pm

N64: How much? Use real examples of core from the last year. ‘Cuz that discount has been and Is eroding.

At least that erosion is also eroding the premiumfor longer contracts.

Kucherov signed a 3 year bridge last fall for 4.8M AAV.
Panarin a 2 year bridge for 6M AAV.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 12:21 pm

Bag of Pucks: I could live with 5 for each, but would prefer 8.

I think this community seriously undervalues Draisaitl.

I would want more certainty if it’s going to cost as much as rumored, otherwise I’d prefer a bridge, play him at C, and see what happens. I’m fine with 8yrs for McDavid, would prefer 2yrs for Draisaitl, based on rumored numbers.

I have more thoughts on a bridge specifically, but you’ll have to wait until I finish the blog post about it 😉

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 12:21 pm

Cassandra,

“In sports with sophisticated (and accurate) projections systems like basketball and baseball the mean projection depreciates for basically every player that is already good. That is, for every player of the Draisatl type it is more likely that their performance will get worse than better. The downside of under performance is greater than the upside for over performance. Now, a lot of this is injury risk, but why doesn’t matter for the purposes of contracts.” ….. – This is very true … That’s why fans are generally disappointed with a players production after a huge UFA signing … the player never has a chance to live up to the dough ..

The only saving grace for McD and Leon’s contracts are that the Oilers are paying for their best years to come … These players are just entering their prime!

N64 July 4, 2017 - 12:20 pm

Cassandra: after which you have to subtract for the fact that Draisatl has five more RFA years

How much? Use real examples of core from the last year. ‘Cuz that discount has been and Is eroding.

At least that erosion is also eroding the premium for longer contracts.

Chachi July 4, 2017 - 12:20 pm

stephen sheps: Appreciate that, and your comment as well.

I was a Sonics fan as a kid, but since I am not a Seattle resident and never have been, I stuck with the team for whatever reason after they moved (and by whatever reason, I mean KD, Westbrook and then Harden getting drafted). Franchises leaving their cities is a tough thing as a fan who isn’t from there. It definitely makes me wonder how I would feel had the Oilers moved back in the dark times pre EIG.

As to LD, you’re not wrong – I admit the KD analogy was a massive stretch. I’m just getting kinda tired of the salary debate and wanted to provide something a little different about it to the conversation.

I get it. I was tired of the salary debate before it even started!

stephen sheps July 4, 2017 - 12:18 pm

Chachi: Edited to add, sorry about Durant and OKC, but maybe he would have showed the franchise more loyalty if they showed more loyalty to the city of Seattle?

Appreciate that, and your comment as well.

I was a Sonics fan as a kid, but since I am not a Seattle resident and never have been, I stuck with the team for whatever reason after they moved (and by whatever reason, I mean KD, Westbrook and then Harden getting drafted). Franchises leaving their cities is a tough thing as a fan, but strange for one who isn’t from there. As an actual Edmontonian (well, I was at least) it definitely makes me wonder how I would feel had the Oilers moved back in the dark times pre EIG.

As to LD, you’re not wrong – I admit the KD analogy was a massive stretch. I’m just getting kinda tired of the salary debate and wanted to provide something a little different about it to the conversation.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 12:14 pm

speeds: I’d prefer a 2 year bridge for Draisaitl if I were in EDM’s position, not for McDavid.

I could live with 5 for each, but would prefer 8.

I think this community seriously undervalues Draisaitl.

It reminds me of how we knew very quickly what we had in Gretzky, whereas Messier took a little more time. At the end of the day however, you want and need both.

Cassandra July 4, 2017 - 12:11 pm

jtblack:
jtblack,

Paciioretty – $6 mil66 pts
Tavares new deal – $10 mil?66 pts last year (current deal $5.5)
Benn – $9.5 Mil69 points
Ovie $9,5 Mil 69 points
Malkin $9.572 points (only 62 games)
Getzlaf $8.2 Mil 73 points …

There are some crazy good contracts still in place; but all of those contracts will change drastically in the next year or 2 (Seguin, Tavares, Kucherov, Pavelski) …

These are all UFA contracts. They are only relevant for establishing and UFA value for Draisatl after which you have to subtract for the fact that Draisatl has five more RFA years.

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 12:09 pm

The other thing posters might want to keep in mind in comparing potential contracts to comparables like Tarasenko, Malkin, etc. is US based players reside in a less punitive luxury tax environment with a stronger currency. Canadian teams can’t expect the players to eat the hit on these disparities, so especially on these market setting deals, you can bet these factors play into the negotiation.

That is precisely why these things drag on. SO many factors at play.

And, there’s also no doubt in my mind that Katz is involved in these lynchpin type negotiations. Sure Chiarelli has the wheel on most contracts, but these 8 and 9 figure deals? You can bet Katz is not only privy to ongoing negotiations but is in on the tactical decisions. Darryl is the best negotiator in this organization. No way he’s sitting on the sidelines for these lottery size contracts.

Cassandra July 4, 2017 - 12:09 pm

Bag of Pucks:
I think the point that is being missed in all of the angst over the Draisaitl negotiations is the crux of the issue is the team wants to tie up the player for 8 years, so even if Draisaitl isn’t Malkin right now, he very well could be in two years, so why would he undervalue himself for the duration of a very lengthy contract? This isn’t about a player being greedy, in as much as it’s about a player believing in himself and knowing what he’s capable of becoming. The ‘he’s not Malkin now’ argument only makes sense if we’re talking a 1 or 2 year contract.

The Oilers can easily reduce the cap hits on both Connor and Leon by signing them to lesser term bridge deals. Presumably no one on this board wants that? But it seems we all want to have our cake and eat it too? That is, contracts through their prime at rates with cap hits more comparable to the previous generation of elite players?

In sports with sophisticated (and accurate) projections systems like basketball and baseball the mean projection depreciates for basically every player that is already good. That is, for every player of the Draisatl type it is more likely that their performance will get worse than better. The downside of under performance is greater than the upside for over performance. Now, a lot of this is injury risk, but why doesn’t matter for the purposes of contracts.

This is why the longer the term the lower the annual value should be. So for the purposes of salary you should calculate a value based on performance to date multiply that by a depreciation factor by the number of years and the multiply that by expected inflation.

There is no reason for the team to pay for the probability that Drasaitl turns into Malkin without Draisatl giving back for the probability that he gets injured and his value decreases.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 12:08 pm

Ducey: MTL would have Leon, Price and Weber (who makes $7.85) taking up $26+ million for a long time. That’s 1/3 the cap. Plus they would have next to no draft next year as they already are missing their 4th, 6th, and 7th.

I can’t see it.

That much money for your 1G 1D and 1C isn’t necessarily crazy. I might not want to give that much money/cap hit to Price and Weber for as long as MTL is, but don’t see that as a huge issue. Plus Weber’s actual money starts to be lower than his cap hit in 18/19, they can probably move him at some point if they want to, to a team not concerned about cap hit.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 12:07 pm

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": Yes, I would be surprised, too. But if he were a guaranteed franchise C wouldn’t this all be moot? Chia would hand McDavid and Drai the chequebook and say “Here’s 24 million. You guys split it how you think is fair.”

And since Drai isn’t established get them to split something in the 21s for max. I think you nailed the market value

Chachi July 4, 2017 - 12:07 pm

jtblack: Benn – $9.5 Mil 69 points
Ovie $9,5 Mil 69 points

Nice

N64 July 4, 2017 - 12:03 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yes, sorry if not clear. My 8.25-8.5 estimate was for 8 years.
Comes lower for less UFA years of course.

I wasn’t clear. Assumed you meant max and agreed on that basis.

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 12:02 pm

jtblack,

Paciioretty – $6 mil 66 pts
Tavares new deal – $10 mil? 66 pts last year (current deal $5.5)
Benn – $9.5 Mil 69 points
Ovie $9,5 Mil 69 points
Malkin $9.5 72 points (only 62 games)
Getzlaf $8.2 Mil 73 points …

There are some crazy good contracts still in place; but all of those contracts will change drastically in the next year or 2 (Seguin, Tavares, Kucherov, Pavelski) …

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 12:02 pm

Ducey,
No worries!

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 12:01 pm

Ducey: MTL would have Leon, Price and Weber (who makes $7.85) taking up $26+ million for a long time. That’s 1/3 the cap. Plus they would have next to no draft next year as they already are missing their 4th, 6th, and 7th.

I can’t see it.

Is that that high? Oilers would have more committed to their big 3 of McDavid, Drai, Lucic /RNH take your pick.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 12:01 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Ducey,

You see my reply re Kruger?

Yes. Thanks for that.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 12:00 pm

Bag of Pucks:
The Oilers can easily reduce the cap hits on both Connor and Leon by signing them to lesser term bridge deals. Presumably no one on this board wants that? But it seems we all want to have our cake and eat it too? That is, contracts through their prime at rates with cap hits more comparable to the previous generation of elite players?

I’d prefer a 2 year bridge for Draisaitl if I were in EDM’s position, not for McDavid.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 12:00 pm

speeds: Ducey makes an interesting point in that MTL has a raise coming to Price.Following on that thread, they also have Galchenyuk as an RFA (although if they knew they were signing LD to an offer sheet, could also trade him), but they have a lot of cap room even going forward with Plekanec and his 6M being a UFA – Draisaitl would likely be replacing him going forward.They are an interesting fit, especially if it’s true that they like Draisail going back to a potential Subban trade.

With SJ, they are a bit tighter in cap room this year, and do have raises coming to Vlasic and Jones but those along with a LD OS and higher cap hit might be able to be offset by letting Thornton go.They’d probably have to make some moves to fit Draisaitl this year, would be a bit more work than MTL, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t do it.

MTL would have Leon, Price and Weber (who makes $7.85) taking up $26+ million for a long time. That’s 1/3 the cap. Plus they would have next to no draft next year as they already are missing their 4th, 6th, and 7th.

And SJ would have to get their 2nd and 3rd back from TOR.

I can’t see it.

Chachi July 4, 2017 - 11:59 am

stephen sheps: Who knows what kind of endorsement deals Leon has, especially back in Germany, and especially still now that Adidas is the apparel producer for the NHL.

My point wasn’t to compare the sports, but rather provide an example of a #2 player who could have maxed out choosing not to because winning with the team he’s on seemed more important than a few more millions. And to be clear, I’m an OKC fan; KD broke my heart a year ago to follow the money to a championship rather than doing what he just did this summer, so clearly he’s not a paragon of altruism. The point was that it’s possible that Leon might not try to break the team’s back, and that there is some recent precedent in other sports.

My point is that it is a lot easier to give up money on the salary side when Nike is paying you $300 million over the next 10 years. Hockey would be what, the 20th most popular sport in Germany? How much could Draisaitl possibly make in endorsements? Not nearly enough to give up a bunch of money on his contract with the Oilers.

Edited to add, sorry about Durant and OKC, but maybe he would have showed the franchise more loyalty if they showed more loyalty to the city of Seattle?

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:58 am

speeds: He’s not established as a guaranteed franchise C though.If he were more proven at C, on his own, I think LV would be more likely to look at it.Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t, but I’d be kind of surprised.

Yes, I would be surprised, too. But if he were a guaranteed franchise C wouldn’t this all be moot? Chia would hand McDavid and Drai the chequebook and say “Here’s 24 million. You guys split it how you think is fair.”

N64 July 4, 2017 - 11:57 am

speeds:
He has the offer sheet card, no question.It hasn’t been played in awhile, including with a player like Lindholm who was both more proven and on a team in a tighter cap situation.It is still an option.

He can hold out.The Oilers are relatively decently positioned to withstand that – how many other teams could go McDavid – RNH at C during a holdout with a star player?

What we don’t know is if 97’s aav can drop say .5m if he wants a max deal done for both.

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 11:57 am

Side,

“Or is $9 million the new standard for centers getting 51-77 points a year?” – Great point. I think all of our expectations have to be tempered. We immediately see $$ and think that the player has to produce X; but the reality is we live in the lowest scoring era of hockey …

A 60 point player now is excellent. A 70 point player rare (only 19 players hit 70+). An 80 point player is a Superstar (only 7 in the World last year) …

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:56 am

N64: For max yes. Rfa discounts have eroded severely and now 97. If you can’t get much rfa discount bet on cap inflation and take him to age 28.

Yes, sorry if not clear. My 8.25-8.5 estimate was for 8 years.
Comes lower for less UFA years of course.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 11:56 am

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": If they went just below the four 1sts level? To build with a franchise C?

If I’m McPhee I consider that. Wouldn’t do four 1sts tho, so 9.8. And I (McPhee) hope Chia considers two top four guaranteed picks.

He’s not established as a guaranteed franchise C though. If he were more proven at C, on his own, I think LV would be more likely to look at it. Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t, but I’d be kind of surprised.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:55 am

Ducey,

You see my reply re Kruger?

N64 July 4, 2017 - 11:54 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Gaudreau doesn’t bring Drai’s size or all around game and is a wing.
Kuznetsov is close but I still take Drai. He just got 7.8. Drai is worth 8.2-8.5

For max yes. Rfa discounts have eroded severely and now 97. If you can’t get much rfa discount bet on cap inflation and take him to age 28.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 11:52 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
John Chambers,

San Jose, Montreal, Vegas have space off the top of my head.

Ducey makes an interesting point in that MTL has a raise coming to Price. Following on that thread, they also have Galchenyuk as an RFA (although if they knew they were signing LD to an offer sheet, could also trade him), but they have a lot of cap room even going forward with Plekanec and his 6M being a UFA – Draisaitl would likely be replacing him going forward. They are an interesting fit, especially if it’s true that they like Draisail going back to a potential Subban trade.

With SJ, they are a bit tighter in cap room this year, and do have raises coming to Vlasic and Jones but those along with a LD OS and higher cap hit might be able to be offset by letting Thornton go. They’d probably have to make some moves to fit Draisaitl this year, would be a bit more work than MTL, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t do it.

stephen sheps July 4, 2017 - 11:51 am

Bag of Pucks: Finally, people need to stop speculating on Leon as being ‘difficult’ in these negotiations. The fans are just as guilty as the media on spreading this manure. Until there’s a credible report of this from the parties to the negotiations themselves, that is just pure speculation at best and rumour mongering at worst.

+1

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 11:50 am

speeds:
Ducey,

EDM traded back for a pick to make the Penner OS, I wouldn’t automatically assume that a team couldn’t do that if they wanted to sign LD to an OS.

Yeah. That was an assumption for the purposes of my study.

I guess we need not worry until we see that happen

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 11:50 am

Scungilli Slushy,

” Something seems to be driving overpays that teams should be aware” .. I think the McD new contract is what is pushing all other contracts … The outer marker 2 years ago was $10 Mil … Kane / Toews then got $11 … now McD at $13 changes the game again …

stephen sheps July 4, 2017 - 11:50 am

Chachi: Durant made more in endorsements than he did in salary.

Who knows what kind of endorsement deals Leon has, especially back in Germany, and especially still now that Adidas is the apparel producer for the NHL.

My point wasn’t to compare the sports, but rather provide an example of a #2 player who could have maxed out choosing not to because winning with the team he’s on seemed more important than a few more millions. And to be clear, I’m an OKC fan; KD broke my heart a year ago to follow the money to a championship rather than doing what he just did this summer, so clearly he’s not a paragon of altruism. The point was that it’s possible that Leon might not try to break the team’s back, and that there is some recent precedent in other sports.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 11:49 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Side,

Drai deserves Tarasenko deal + inflation and is a centre.Centres will get paid more than wingers.He is getting Kuznetsov money at a bare minimum. 7.5 is simply not realistic. 8.25-8.5m is the range. And if it is for 8 years Chia needs to pay that. 9m is the ask but 8.5 hopefully gets it done.

+1

Bag of Pucks July 4, 2017 - 11:47 am

I think the point that is being missed in all of the angst over the Draisaitl negotiations is the crux of the issue is the team wants to tie up the player for 8 years, so even if Draisaitl isn’t Malkin right now, he very well could be in two years, so why would he undervalue himself for the duration of a very lengthy contract? This isn’t about a player being greedy, in as much as it’s about a player believing in himself and knowing what he’s capable of becoming. The ‘he’s not Malkin now’ argument only makes sense if we’re talking a 1 or 2 year contract.

The Oilers can easily reduce the cap hits on both Connor and Leon by signing them to lesser term bridge deals. Presumably no one on this board wants that? But it seems we all want to have our cake and eat it too? That is, contracts through their prime at rates with cap hits more comparable to the previous generation of elite players?

The next generation of elites always drive the salary structure up. That’s how this always works and is why the league has to allocate ongoing cap escalation despite the fact that it’s rarely in their best interests to do so.

Finally, people need to stop speculating on Leon as being ‘difficult’ in these negotiations. The fans are just as guilty as the media on spreading this manure. Until there’s a credible report of this from the parties to the negotiations themselves, that is just pure speculation at best and rumour mongering at worst.

Negotiation is business not personal. Any agent worth his salt is going to ask the moon at the beginning, cos it gives you the headroom to concede territory whilst still landing on the final number you’ve targeted. These are life changing deals for all involved. Of course they’re going to be difficult and protracted. If they weren’t, I’d question the acumen of the people involved.

Side July 4, 2017 - 11:47 am

Question:

If Leon makes $9 million a year, what will be the expectations of him going forward?

Will he have to put up 80-90 points a season regardless of whether he’s on McDavid’s wing or not?

Or is $9 million the new standard for centers getting 51-77 points a year?

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 11:47 am

Chachi: I think this is a big factor in any negotiation for a contract that goes beyond the current CBA’s term. There was a rollback last time…

This might explain some of these contracts we’re seeing. Something seems to be driving overpays that teams should be aware are probably a less than 50% bet that the player can maintain enough through the term to be worth it.

That or they know the cap is going to start increasing more again.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:46 am

Side: 9 million for:
– someone who we’re not entirely confident can be a #1 center for a full season
– someone who is playing mostly on the wing
– someone who just had a 70 point season following a 50 point season (1 season being spent with Taylor Hall and the other with McDavid)

I am not convinced.

I wasn’t trying to convince you 9m is the number.

I know all the arguments. But agent is going for broke. On a straight points comparison he is at Tarasenko contract level.

I pushed for the case to have him run his own line this year. Never happened. It’s too late now to go back and argue that.

Not trying to convince anyone just saying the comparable stats the agent will.be using will have Kuznetsov and Tarasenko +

speeds July 4, 2017 - 11:43 am

Ducey,

EDM traded back for a pick to make the Penner OS, I wouldn’t automatically assume that a team couldn’t do that if they wanted to sign LD to an OS.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:43 am

speeds: SJ and MTL might well look at it, Vegas has the space but I’d be surprised if they were giving up those picks for Draisaitl

If they went just below the four 1sts level? To build with a franchise C?

If I’m McPhee I consider that. Wouldn’t do four 1sts tho, so 9.8. And I (McPhee) hope Chia considers two top four guaranteed picks.

Side July 4, 2017 - 11:40 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Side,

Drai deserves Tarasenko deal + inflation and is a centre.Centres will get paid more than wingers.He is getting Kuznetsov money at a bare minimum. 7.5 is simply not realistic. 8.25-8.5m is the range. And if it is for 8 years Chia needs to pay that. 9m is the ask but 8.5 hopefully gets it done.

9 million for:
– someone who we’re not entirely confident can be a #1 center for a full season
– someone who is playing mostly on the wing
– someone who just had a 70 point season following a 50 point season (1 season being spent with Taylor Hall and the other with McDavid)

I am not convinced.

Chachi July 4, 2017 - 11:40 am

stephen sheps:
counterpoint:

It’s a different sport with a slightly different financial landscape, but Kevin Durant just signed a two-year deal at less than both ‘market value’ and what he made last year for the good of the team, knowing that taking less allowed the warriors to re-sign the core of the team and ensure that Curry (KD’s one-time NCAA rival and now best player in basketball) could get his max deal today.

We don’t know what we don’t know. And at this point, we don’t know a thing about the contract negotiations other than conjecture from MSM types and a whole lot of speculation here.

As our kind host often says, we wait.

Durant makes more in endorsements than he did in salary.

https://www.forbes.com/profile/kevin-durant/

You really can’t compare the NHL to any of the big 3 sports in the U.S.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 11:40 am

Has anybody actually figured out who could do an offer sheet?

Assuming it is less than $9.8 million the team needs their two firsts, a second and a third. And they need cap room. And we have to assume any team isn’t going to clear room or trade for their draft pick(s) back.

Cap room eliminates Tor, Chi, Det, Dal, Ana, Phi, LA, Rangers, STL, WAS, MIN (the have three RFA’s to sign, and no second), NASH (they have Johansson and a bunch of RFA’s and an internal budget),

Lack of picks eliminates CGY, SJ, Ott, Vegas, FLA, BUF, ARI

Leaving NYI (they would be very tight), Canucks, WIN, Pitt (but they have to sign Sheary), COL, CLB, TB (the need to sign Palat and Johnson), BOS (need to sign Pasternak and Spooner), MTL, CAR, and NJ

If we assume NYI, PITT, BOS, TB are out as they have other players to sign. And WIN, CAR, and NJ are out because they are budget teams, that leaves the Canucks, COL, CLB, and MTL.

Any of these realistic?

COL perhaps but they have 3 guys signed on D and $12 million. A Duchene trade may clear some room.

Would CLB want to go back into cap hell again?

Can’t see MTL now that they have to pay the Price next year.

That really just leaves VAN? Not sure they want to give up that many picks this early in a rebuild? Can Benning figure out the paperwork?

Again, anything can change, but it doesn’t look like an offer sheet is the immediately obvious answer for any team.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 11:39 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
John Chambers,

San Jose, Montreal, Vegas have space off the top of my head.

SJ and MTL might well look at it, Vegas has the space but I’d be surprised if they were giving up those picks for Draisaitl

Chachi July 4, 2017 - 11:38 am

godot10: another salary rollback in the new CBA is possibility.

I think this is a big factor in any negotiation for a contract that goes beyond the current CBA’s term. There was a rollback last time…

stephen sheps July 4, 2017 - 11:38 am

counterpoint:

It’s a different sport with a slightly different financial landscape, but Kevin Durant just signed a two-year deal at less than both ‘market value’ and what he made last year for the good of the team, knowing that taking less allowed the warriors to re-sign the core of the team and ensure that Curry (KD’s one-time NCAA rival and now best player in basketball) could get his max deal today.

We don’t know what we don’t know. And at this point, we don’t know a thing about the contract negotiations other than conjecture from MSM types and a whole lot of speculation here.

As our kind host often says, we wait.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:36 am

John Chambers,

San Jose, Montreal, Vegas have space off the top of my head.

godot10 July 4, 2017 - 11:35 am

Cassandra:
In baseball when a player signs a long term contract it usually means less annual money.

Why is it the opposite in hockey?

It is the opposite in hockey because of salary cap inflation not tied to revenue AND escrow AND the uncertainty tied to an expiring CBA, where because of 15% escrow levels, another salary rollback in the new CBA is possibility.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:34 am

speeds,

Yeah, as good as Lindholm is, centres with Drai’s size and skill (not height but built like a tank) come along less often.

If any player were ripe for one it is him. And I wouldn’t put it past a few GMs to want to spite the Oilers for all those lottery picks.

Hextall made comments before. Tim Murray if he still had a job. Bruins obviously hate Chia though they don’t have the cap space. Who knows who else? All it takes is one.

I’m not saying a GM will do it merely out of spite. They’d only do it to improve their team, but if it also happens to be against the Oilers I would wager not a lot of tears would be shed around the league.

John Chambers July 4, 2017 - 11:33 am

Not a lot of teams with $9+ million in salary cap space to even threaten an offer sheet at this point. Montreal spent their dough on Alzner and Price, while Carolina signed Williams and are under an internal cap.

After the usual fanfare of the run up to, and frenzy of July 1-4, I think it’s safe to assume an offer sheet for Draisaitl will not be forthcoming.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 11:31 am

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

I’d have liked to see them play him at C more last year, to see what they have. I don’t know if it would have hurt the team, it could have helped. It also might have helped in negotiations, and had the benefit of LD not hitting his bonuses which would have eliminated the overage for this season as well – not saying they’d specifically have done it for those reasons, but could have been a side benefit.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 11:28 am

Aron_S:
Two cents:

Here’s my attempt at a projected roster for 2018-19, assuming modest internal growth and the salaries they might expect to be at:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/402950

That team is ~$3M over a $77.5M cap, which tells me that if no one blows up, the Oilers will need to make a decision between Maroon and RNH. My guess is that RNH is gone for a lesser talent 3C (or maybe Strome slots in there).

Also I don’t know how many others follow Matt Cane’s work, but his salary projection charts are incredible and he’s mostly in the ballpark (where I estimated some players ala Benning, Nurse, Slep, etc).

https://twitter.com/Cane_Matt/status/875727216541392897

Lastly, Gregor is giving a ton of pushback on Twitter ATM, saying the agent (and the Dreger $9M mouthpiece this morning) is asking for the moon and to wait out the process. He seems confident it’ll come in around $7-7.5M, so I’ll be interested to see what happens.

Thanks for the link. It’s hard isn’t it? Your roster is still 5.3M over the cap with bonuses, and JP and Talbot coming up next year for contracts.

When I did this exercise, I didn’t keep Maroon, and had to trade Nuge, my salaries were similar but I had some higher. Russell would have to go the following year toward signing JP and Talbot, which shouldn’t be too much of a loos if Nurse and Benning progress.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 11:27 am

He has the offer sheet card, no question. It hasn’t been played in awhile, including with a player like Lindholm who was both more proven and on a team in a tighter cap situation. It is still an option.

He can hold out. The Oilers are relatively decently positioned to withstand that – how many other teams could go McDavid – RNH at C during a holdout with a star player?

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:23 am

speeds:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

How is it too late for a 2 yr bridge contract, if you’re the Oilers and feel LD is asking for too much on a long term deal?

Leon can hold out. Doesn’t need to sign a 2 year deal. And has the offer sheet card.

But where I meant it was too late was that if the Oilers had played him 40 games plus playoffs at 2C everyone would have had a much clearer take on what Drai “deserves.” Too late for that and the agent is going to ask for the moon.

Regardless of McDavid let’s say Leon had put up 20-40-60 with half the year at 2C there’s no way they’d be asking for 9m.

He’d be looking at something with a 6-handle.

Genjutsu July 4, 2017 - 11:19 am

This is why there will be no offer sheet.

There’s no way the owners want a shift like a 9+ million per contract to Leon would create.

This will go late if Leon digs in. He’s likely to get screwed out of cash by agent like Trouba.

And we’ll see a bridge deal for 3 years.

LMHF#1 July 4, 2017 - 11:19 am

I’m not sure what the plan is – or if Chiarelli even has one – but if it includes trading Hopkins they should do it now. You don’t wait until you’re forced to trade these guys. That’s a great way to get nothing back.

speeds July 4, 2017 - 11:19 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

How is it too late for a 2 yr bridge contract, if you’re the Oilers and feel LD is asking for too much on a long term deal?

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:16 am

speeds: I’m going to play a little devil’s advocate here, just for the sake of argument:

LD has years of 2, 19, and 29 goals.
Tarasenko had years of 8, 21, and 37 goals.

LD played with McDavid in his big goal season, Tarasenko did not.

“is a centre”

Perhaps it’s likely that he will be but he wasn’t for a good chunk of last season.Is it fair to wonder if paying him Tarasenko $$$ + a positional premium is a gamble that should be made at this time, when he hasn’t carried a line himself at C for an extended number of games?

Of course it’s fair to wonder. We all have. Including me.

I have said for the past 5 or 6 months I would a) move Drai to his own line so we can see how he handles that. b) bridge deal him.

But the Oilers did neither. I warned many times about paying him as 1RW on 97’s wing as opposed to seeing his 2C production.

But that’s long gone now and we are here. It’s too fucking late

Dustylegnd July 4, 2017 - 11:15 am

russ99,

Unfortunately players rarely score more prolifically as they age.

Lucic was never a great skater and unless he drops 15 lbs this off season, it gets worse,

I am pretty sure Chia didn’t envision Lucic as a PP specialist, so let us hope his 5 x 5 scoring magically improves next year

John Chambers July 4, 2017 - 11:14 am

godot10:
Not everyone agrees that $9 million is too much, especially if McDavid is earning $13.25.

Sather, until Pocklington was broke and Gretzky was traded, never nickel and dimed Messier.He nickel and dimed everyone else, but not Gretzky, nor Messier.

This is an absurd notion. Drai’s agent or media can invent whatever logic they wish but there are direct comparable s that suggest Drai’s market value is in the $7.5 range.

To think that Drai’s ego will be bruised or that he won’t re-sign with the team many years from now is how you erode a negotiating position. The CBA and salary cap exist and Drai’s agent will have to acquiesce to its parameters … even if that happens in September.

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 11:13 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

+1 … Agreed.

Kuzy put up 77 pts 2 years ago and just put up 59 points this year AND STILL GOT $7.5 Mil per ..

It’s great to try and go back and say Leon should sign for $6, but the landscape has already changed AND IS CHANGING before our eyes … Connor’s expected deal is changing all other deals in real time; Leon included … If Kuzy lands $7.5 after 59 points; safe to say Leon is getting $8.5 – $9 … And I am good with that !!!!!!

speeds July 4, 2017 - 11:11 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Side,

Drai deserves Tarasenko deal + inflation and is a centre.Centres will get paid more than wingers.He is getting Kuznetsov money at a bare minimum. 7.5 is simply not realistic. 8.25-8.5m is the range. And if it is for 8 years Chia needs to pay that. 9m is the ask but 8.5 hopefully gets it done.

I’m going to play a little devil’s advocate here, just for the sake of argument:

LD has years of 2, 19, and 29 goals.
Tarasenko had years of 8, 21, and 37 goals.

LD played with McDavid in his big goal season, Tarasenko did not.

“is a centre”

Perhaps it’s likely that he will be but he wasn’t for a good chunk of last season. Is it fair to wonder if paying him Tarasenko $$$ + a positional premium is a gamble that should be made at this time, when he hasn’t carried a line himself at C for an extended number of games?

godot10 July 4, 2017 - 11:10 am

frjohnk: Yes, but what I was getting at is that this team will not only be up against the cap next year, but we may lose more key pieces by then.

Next year compared to this year
we will have less players on value deals and more players getting paid closer to what they are worth.

If he has another good year,Maroon may be looking for 4M if not more.Nuge will be getting 6M.Chances that both are gone by next summer are extremely high.

Maroon ISN’T a key piece, just like Warren Young and Rob Brown and Blair McDonald and Brett Callighen and Dave Lumlely were not key pieces.

Chiarellii made a couple of unfortunate bets in Lucic and Russell. Russell will cost the Oilers one of Sekera, Nurse, or Benning as early as next summer.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:09 am

vinotintazo: Agree with you here. Lets not compare Drai to something he is not yet. He’s a proven top Line FWD. Pay him accordingly. (Scheifele, Barkov, Kuznetsov, Gaudreau, Monahan).

Scheifele is one of the biggest bargains in the NHL. He would absolutely get paid 8+ if he were signing now.

Drai > Monahan in everything except goal scoring.

Gaudreau doesn’t bring Drai’s size or all around game and is a wing.

Kuznetsov is close but I still take Drai. He just got 7.8. Drai is worth 8.2-8.5

Aron_S July 4, 2017 - 11:09 am

Two cents:

Here’s my attempt at a projected roster for 2018-19, assuming modest internal growth and the salaries they might expect to be at:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/402950

That team is ~$3M over a $77.5M cap, which tells me that if no one blows up, the Oilers will need to make a decision between Maroon and RNH. My guess is that RNH is gone for a lesser talent 3C (or maybe Strome slots in there).

Also I don’t know how many others follow Matt Cane’s work, but his salary projection charts are incredible and he’s mostly in the ballpark (where I estimated some players ala Benning, Nurse, Slep, etc).

https://twitter.com/Cane_Matt/status/875727216541392897

Lastly, Gregor is giving a ton of pushback on Twitter ATM, saying the agent (and the Dreger $9M mouthpiece this morning) is asking for the moon and to wait out the process. He seems confident it’ll come in around $7-7.5M, so I’ll be interested to see what happens.

vinotintazo July 4, 2017 - 11:06 am

Side: Except Drai isn’t Messier, or Malkin, or Toews. So he shouldn’t be paid like he is.

An appropriate amount for someone who produces like Draisaitl is about $7.5 million.

Talking Drai down from 9 mil is not even close to “nickel and diming” him.

“nickel and diming” Draisaitl would be asking him to take a $6 million contract.

$9 million is nuts for a guy we don’t even know can be a number 1 centre yet.

Agree with you here. Lets not compare Drai to something he is not yet. He’s a proven top Line FWD. Pay him accordingly. (Scheifele, Barkov, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, McKinnon, Gaudreau, Monahan).

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:05 am

russ99: Are we really basing Lucic’s worth on one season with two players on his line allergic to the cycle?

No. We aren’t. That wasn’t remotely close to the point of my comment!!

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 11:03 am

Side,

Drai deserves Tarasenko deal + inflation and is a centre.Centres will get paid more than wingers. He is getting Kuznetsov money at a bare minimum. 7.5 is simply not realistic. 8.25-8.5m is the range. And if it is for 8 years Chia needs to pay that. 9m is the ask but 8.5 hopefully gets it done.

godot10 July 4, 2017 - 11:03 am

Gret99zky:
How can Leon possibly perform to a $9M per salary away from McDavid?He will have to drive his own line and put up 80-90 points every year. Unpossible. And when he doesn’t cover the bet MSM like Spector and Rishaug will lead the run him out of town parade.

You did watch the Anaheim series, where Draisaitl was the best forward on the ice, and it wasn’t particularly close.

Draisaitl has been improving year over year. He keeps taking steps forward, after shorter and shorter plateaus.**

**This is all becoming ironic, because I was a Bennett guy.

russ99 July 4, 2017 - 11:02 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
Dustylegnd,

Exactly. This is why 6m x7 for a complementary player, even with culture change etc. was asinine.

Lucic of 5 years ago? Sure.

He is still a good player but one the Oilers really can’t afford going forward

Are we really basing Lucic’s worth on one season with two players on his line allergic to the cycle?

russ99 July 4, 2017 - 11:00 am

The cap has gone up. To expect salaries to stagnate or reduce is not realistic.

Our best chances for bridge deals are next year’s RFAs, which I suspect Chia will try to lock up one or two after Connor and Leon sign.

Next year will be the tell if players take less to play with McDavid and try to win a cup.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 10:59 am

Dustylegnd,

Exactly. This is why 6m x7 for a complementary player, even with culture change etc. was asinine.

Lucic of 5 years ago? Sure.

He is still a good player but one the Oilers really can’t afford going forward

Side July 4, 2017 - 10:59 am

godot10:
Not everyone agrees that $9 million is too much, especially if McDavid is earning $13.25.

Sather, until Pocklington was broke and Gretzky was traded, never nickel and dimed Messier.He nickel and dimed everyone else, but not Gretzky, nor Messier.

Except Drai isn’t Messier, or Malkin, or Toews. So he shouldn’t be paid like he is.

An appropriate amount for someone who produces like Draisaitl is about $7.5 million.

Talking Drai down from 9 mil is not even close to “nickel and diming” him.

“nickel and diming” Draisaitl would be asking him to take a $6 million contract.

$9 million is nuts for a guy we don’t even know can be a number 1 centre yet.

Dustylegnd July 4, 2017 - 10:57 am

jake70,

The difference in NHL talent is not Linear it is exponential…..simple arithmetic is not suitable to determining relative value vs teammates.

The Market will determine what Leon is worth, and if he does not attract an offer sheet, most likely he will sign a 5 x $7.5 in October and be free to leave upon expiry and have all the advantages of UFA status

I have been surprised how long it has taken NHL GM’s to adopt the NFL model of paying key stars mega dollars, and shorting salary with all other talents as required….you are witnessing the new salary structure evolving before your very eyes and Chia is going to be one of the key Architects of the new value system.

There is no room to get it wrong on who is a “River Pusher” vs who is not…hence you saw the departure of Eberle and will soon see the departure of RNH…we will all suffer the living nightmare of the back 4 years of the Lucic deal

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 10:57 am

Scungilli Slushy,

If they can’t take any salary for next year I doubt Markov is even a possibility. Have to think someone will cave on a second year.

I am assuming Nuge is gone next year, maybe others. Especially if 22+m is going to the Dynamic Duo.

dustrock July 4, 2017 - 10:57 am

N64: Agents talk. RFA discounting of core players was already eroding. Connor accelerates.

Yeah, if we’re paying $9m for Draisaitl, I’m not even sure what “RFA” means anymore.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 10:53 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: As for Markov, yes please. But I think he wants that second year. I’d throw him 4.5m X 2. See what he says. Sure a one year deal would be nice but Leafs went that third year to land Marleau. I think it takes that second year to get Andrei. Think he would prefer that over 1 X 7m for example.

As far as I can tell, the Oilers can’t take any salary past this season. I can’t find a way even if Connor and Leon sign for less than rumoured to not have to dump a lot of salary to sign key young players to decent contracts in 2018.

The young guys have to step up big time. I think that is why they are going with so many it seems and not bringing vets in. They have to find out who can do it to know what to do next summer. The youth will have a season and more TOI to settle in.

The safety net is the depth at centre and a good defence corp even if not everyone’s cup of tea, and Talbot. Down the middle they are good, the young wingers have less responsibility. The Pens have done well like that, their D group isn’t better.

godot10 July 4, 2017 - 10:53 am

Not everyone agrees that $9 million is too much, especially if McDavid is earning $13.25.

Sather, until Pocklington was broke and Gretzky was traded, never nickel and dimed Messier. He nickel and dimed everyone else, but not Gretzky, nor Messier.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 10:52 am

Speaking of Cruel Summer, Yak to Colorado. Staring down a -35 to start?

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 10:52 am

Yak is with the Avalance! Look out now … Sakic should be fired .. not for this signing, but for the last 2 years of poor work in Denver .. #Terrible

N64 July 4, 2017 - 10:48 am

dustrock: McDavid should be an exception, but I take your point.

Agents talk. RFA discounting of core players was already eroding. Connor accelerates.

John Chambers July 4, 2017 - 10:46 am

Two thoughts:
1) no need to ‘give’ Drai $9M. Trouba wanted $5M and got $3.5, I’m sure Gaudreau had to settle for $6.8 based on where negotiations started. The longer Drai’s camp has to wait (even if it’s through camp) the better.
2) Patrick Eaves – 1 year $3.5M. Would fit like a glove.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 10:45 am

N64: I think the teams all understand that RFA discounts are rapidly diminishing for elite players. Another odd angle is that you can bet on a max post-ELC contract you can bet on cap inflation and player upside and your downside risk is a 1/3 buyout not a 2/3 buyout.

True. I think I would trade him retaining what they buyout cap hit would be, at least getting something back.

dustrock July 4, 2017 - 10:42 am

N64: Think it changed already when 97 won his negotiation. Discounts on RFA years of core players are in the rear view mirror. Connor was the perfect test vehicle.

McDavid should be an exception, but I take your point.

Gayfish July 4, 2017 - 10:40 am

My problem is that we have a ton of value contracts, some extreme, but they only last a short time. It is nearly impossible to maintain as many value contracts as suggested, and be competitive every year. If we go ahead, we may be looking at a team who gets one or two legit shots in the McDavid window. Better make it count.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 10:37 am

VOR: I think LT is right that it would fundamentally change hockey if Liut wins this negotiation.

Think it changed already when 97 won his negotiation. Discounts on RFA years of core players are in the rear view mirror. Connor was the perfect test vehicle.

You got the leverage down to the last detail. It can end badly.

A better scenario would be both players going 0.5 to 1.0 below full UFA prices on max contracts.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 10:35 am

Ducey:
So CHI traded Kruger to Vegas for nothing (as I read future considerations) and then Vegas flips him 2 days later to CAR for a 5th?

Unless I am missing something (always a realistic possibility) it sounds like Stan Bowman got taken to the cleaners here.

You are missing something. Kruger was the compensation to Vegas to select TVR.

Chicago then held Kruger until.a bonus was paid then traded him for future considerations (actually past considerations)

I would have thought Vegas could have gotten more than a 5th for Kruger.

Rumour has it Carolina wanted Vegas to retain salary if they were to pay more. Vegas already has one retained salary and did not want a second one. So the return was crappy.

Carolina did well.

Vegas did poorly.

Chicago did meh.

VOR July 4, 2017 - 10:33 am

I am going to explain again the leverage Draisaitl has, if he chooses to use it.

1. He can receive an offer sheet.

Opposing teams can really screw the Oilers with an offer sheet of say $9.814,935 (as high as you can go without giving up 4 first rounders) for 1 year. Because if the Oilers were to match (and Chiarelli has rightly said, and I am sure means, that they would) they would have to qualify Leon at that same amount next year or let him go UFA. The following year Leon could go to arbitration and get a two year deal (amount dependent on how he has played, comparable players, and internal salary structures). Then he is UFA and the Oilers are well screwed.

2. The threat of an offer sheet (which clearly Peter Chiarelli is taking seriously) frightens off any other team that might trade for Draisaitl – except a team that maybe was going to tender a serious (not to screw the Oilers but to pick up a valuable long term asset) offer sheet. The outrageous contract demands further dampen trade interest. At the moment getting fair trade value will be really difficult.

3. Draisaitl plays for the Edmonton Oilers. Think how we as fans are going to turn on Peter Chiarelli if the Oilers don’t make the playoffs. We are all ready in high dudgeon – well Edmonton Oiler fans get up in the morning in high dudgeon. Missing the playoffs this coming year probably costs Peter Chiarelli his job.

Now imagine trying to do that if Draisaitl got hurt and missed the season. Him holding out would be the same thing. There aren’t a lot of good players left in free agency – none as good 1 for 1 as Draisaitl. So if he held out then the Oilers would struggle to make the playoffs (using odds and sods to fill in for him) and likely be road kill if they did get there.

Plus, there is the rather unique problem of what happens if Leon signs in Europe for a year with an out clause. The Oilers sign say Jagr and Markov. Then some prick of a GM offer sheets Leon? So, and I may be wrong about this, I think the Oilers would have to sit on much of there available cap to prevent such a thing happening. In other words, Draisaitl holding out doesn’t just deny the Oilers his services but also prevents them being able to maximize their free agent options.

I don’t know Leon Draisaitl beyond his play on the ice and I know nothing about Mike Liut as an agent. But I think it is exactly these vulnerabilities that Mr. Liut is trying to exploit. I think LT is right that it would fundamentally change hockey if Liut wins this negotiation.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 10:30 am

So CHI traded Kruger to Vegas for nothing (as I read future considerations) and then Vegas flips him 2 days later to CAR for a 5th?

Unless I am missing something (always a realistic possibility) it sounds like Stan Bowman got taken to the cleaners here.

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) July 4, 2017 - 10:25 am

I don’t want to trade Leon.

That said, candidates for packages you might consider. Not saying the other teams would do it.

Colorado:
Mackinnon + Zadorov

St. Louis:
Parayko + Schwartz (not a C, I know)

Carolina:
Slavin + Rask (yes, Slavin is a lefty)

Toronto (spits)
Rielly + Nylander (yeah, doubt Leafs consider it, too)

Buffalo
Ristolainen + Reinhart

Some of these are unrealistic for sure. But if these teams call to ask this is the minimum I would be asking for. If Montreal calls I tell Bergevin to fuck off or dare him to sign him to 10m X 7. I then take the 4 1sts and sign Galchenyuk to an offer sheet at 5.88m (1st and 3rd max salary) first chance I get. With Weber, Price and Drai they would have no hope of matching.

As for Markov, yes please. But I think he wants that second year. I’d throw him 4.5m X 2. See what he says. Sure a one year deal would be nice but Leafs went that third year to land Marleau. I think it takes that second year to get Andrei. Think he would prefer that over 1 X 7m for example.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 10:24 am

Ribs:
I’d say Pay The Man.

Leon strikes me as a guy that will prove his worth. All arrows pointing upward.

I’d feel a lot better if he had a lower shooting % and had not been zoomed so much by Connor.

I’d give him a year or two, and make sure it is for real. Then he can get paid.

There are a lot of guys who had career years early on, and have never come back to those numbers.

Our man Eberle for one. Ryan Strome for another.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 10:23 am

jtblack: These 2 contracts will actually help the Oilers because they will tie already have tied PC’s hand from signing UFA’s going forward

FTFY

N64 July 4, 2017 - 10:21 am

Scungilli Slushy: They’ll sign him I think and it will be a lot. I mentioned last post that I wonder if teams are aware of something we aren’t around the cap or coming CBA given the contracts they’re giving, or maybe it’s the typical overpaying they do at this time of year.
Another angle is that these two contracts become value deals because they’ll cause such salary inflation.

I think the teams all understand that RFA discounts are rapidly diminishing for elite players. Another odd angle is that you can bet on a max post-ELC contract you can bet on cap inflation and player upside and your downside risk is a 1/3 buyout not a 2/3 buyout.

Side July 4, 2017 - 10:15 am

Cassandra:

Lindholm’s contract is an incredible deal for the Ducks.Why don’t the Oilers get deals like that?

You’re not a fan of Klefbom’s contract I take it?

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 10:15 am

“If that was true, you could meet in the middle ($8.5 million) and call it a day……

If PC pays Leon $9 million times eight, we’re looking at a new world order in terms of salaries given out to young players. Veterans will get screwed, the deals signed by Edmonton earlier in the summer (Russell) instantly an albatross. The agent is attempting to change the market, in an effort to slice the money pie in a different way. In a way, the Oilers and their negotiations with Leon Draisaitl may set the stage for the biggest change in the weather this century. The big money may be gone for even good NHL players by the time they reach 30 if this deal happens.
I’d say quietly shop him but how is that possible?”

Have to disagree on this one LT: NO way Leon gets traded. At $8 Million or $8.5 Million per year, we can sign, be happy and call it a day; but at $9 Million everything goes to hell in a hand basket?

These 2 contracts will actually help the Oilers because they will tie PC’s hand from signing UFA’s going forward. PC will have to be stingy, trade or lose some good players and replace them will low cost quality players.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 10:14 am

Ducey: So getting Hamonic for a prospect and or picks would have been better than just signing Russell?

You get that CGY gave up a first and second in a strong draft and another 2nd on top of that?

Is the difference between Hamonic and Russell worth that?

Uh, no.

In fact, the value of picks to the Oilers is higher than ever, given they need a steady stream of prospects to fill in around the core.

Picks have never been more important to the team, thank goodness they have figured out drafting, at least as good as most.

Ducey July 4, 2017 - 10:13 am

Zack:
Obviously signing McDavid and Draisaitl are priority.

However, I feel that Chiarelli has the window of amazing opportunity, with the best or second best player in the world with a value contract and he’s completely sh*tting the bed making Russell a priority on defense. Of course we have to bolster it but how hard would it have been to work out a deal with Garth Snow sending Eberle + Prospect and or Picks to NYI for Strome and Hamonic?

Perhaps something behind the scenes but I feel like PC is doing a very poor job making the most of the “value” time he has left.

Forwards could use an addition or so but that defence and back up position needs some work.

So getting Hamonic for a prospect and or picks would have been better than just signing Russell?

You get that CGY gave up a first and second in a strong draft and another 2nd on top of that?

Is the difference between Hamonic and Russell worth that?

Uh, no.

In fact, the value of picks to the Oilers is higher than ever, given they need a steady stream of prospects to fill in around the core.

Kinger_Oil.redux July 4, 2017 - 10:10 am

Cassandra:
In baseball when a player signs a long term contract it usually means less annual money.

Why is it the opposite in hockey?

– I’m a huge baseball fan, and economics in sport in general

– I don’t agree that a long-term contract usually means less annual money in baseball: unless you are looking backwards. Baseball is also fundamentally different in terms of rights of players. They can become free-agents a lot quicker than in Hockey:

– A player is bound to the team that drafts him for three seasons, and after that if he isn’t on 40-man roster goes back to rule-5 Draft

– Baseball players have much more control over their careers: A player with three years or more service cannot be removed from the 40-man roster without his permission. The player can also opt to be released immediately or at the end of the season. A player also can elect to become a free agent whenever he is removed from the 40-man roster, starting with the second removal of his career.

– A player with six or more years of major-league service (on the team’s 40-man roster) who is not under contract for the following season is automatically a free agent

– In hockey, teams can control you for 11 years if they want to: no if’s and’s or but’s

– Stanton signed a $325MM contract, A-Rod $275, Price $220, etc.

– I’m not sure one can quantify what the baseball are giving up in yearly salary when they are paid so much, guaranteed, so early in their careers.

– There is no cap in Baseball. The reason you might be inclined to sign a player like Drai/McD longer-term in hockey is because certainty over cap is more important. That certainty very valuable to management (and of course fans, who want their stars locked up for a long time)

– It makes sense that if you want to control a hockey player for 11 years, one would expect to pay a premium to do so, as the player only gets to negociate salary once in 11 years: that is a very valuable right they are relinquishing.

Ribs July 4, 2017 - 10:08 am

I’d say Pay The Man.

Leon strikes me as a guy that will prove his worth. All arrows pointing upward.

jtblack July 4, 2017 - 10:08 am

LT: “preferring to hit the roll-end shops and Taber corn trucks” – I live in Southern Alberta. Taber Corn Trucks represent a delicacy like none other. Sweet Savory. Maybe $10 for a dozen, True Value contract there! Hint: Cook them on the BBQ for best results!

“Benson remains a substantial prospect but a strong final season in junior would be a Godsend.” – IF Tyler Benson is healthy and plays 60 games (miss a few for world junior camp, etc); I look to him to put up over 100 points. Vancouver is terrible, but I would expect the Oilers push the Giants to make a trade and have Benson on a contender for the playoffs (like Leon).

“McDavid’s presence alone makes all of the next seasons possible Destination Stanley” – This is true, but it seems a lot of ppl are having trouble accepting McDavid’s Greatness. The mistake we all tend to make is that we look at winning and charts like a straight line. Consider a stock investment. It never goes straight up perfectly, the same % every year. Rather it goes up, then flattens, then falls back, then goes up. Over a period (say 8 years) it trends up nicely. The Oilers blew away even the most optimistic expectations last year. They had near perfect health and had 3 of the best seasons in recent memory by individual players (Connor, Leon, Talbot). Now it seems, the masses expect another improvement, 110 point season and a Stanley Cup run. I would caution against this. Because of McDavid the Oilers will be in the mix for a playoff spot, but a lot of good teams missed last year. Whether it’s PC not doing enough, too young a roster or injury troubles (sekera out already hurts us); I would expect this team to be fighting tough and nail for a playoff spot come March.

“The big money may be gone for even good NHL players by the time they reach 30 if this deal happens.” – Markov wants $6 mil. He’s 38. Marleau just got $6 x 3. He’s 37. the list goes on and on. Good players continue to get paid and will get paid … The guys that don’t get huge dollars are the replacement players, both young and old .. they will all be under $2 mil per and fill out every roster ..

Great Post !!!!!!!!!!!!

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 10:07 am

Woogie63:
Howson is back in the Oiler management fold and Dreger has more details of the team’s inner workings.

That’s why they did it, not enough leaks!

Woogie63 July 4, 2017 - 10:05 am

dustrock:
I don’t think it will take the fanbase long to turn on Draisaitl, to be honest.

This town has never been a fan of players going for as much money as possible.

Good idea,

Hall, Shultz, Dubby, Hemsky and Sheldon look miserable since they left Edmonton.

Poor Jordon is taking his $6M a year and moving to a very cool condo in Brooklyn, will ride the train to work in peace, he will be home just about every night with his new bride. Once the advertisers notice him he will wonder why he worked for those crumbs that ATB and Ford through his way.

Look out Leon.

Chachi July 4, 2017 - 10:03 am

Cassandra: Lindholm’s contract is an incredible deal for the Ducks. Why don’t the Oilers get deals like that?

At least the Oilers aren’t paying the rotting corpse of Corey Perry 8.625 million for another 4 years. And yes, I know, Lucic, Satan, Chiarelli, track suits etc…

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 9:51 am

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Great post LT!We will find out soon enough but how “sure” are you that McD signs for $13.25×8?

Information sounds pretty strong, Rishaug has been on this all down the line. Originally, I did hear five years though.

Scungilli Slushy July 4, 2017 - 9:49 am

I’d say quietly shop him but how is that possible?

—–

GM’s must start calling in these situations to test the waters, I’m sure with low ball offers if anyone is listening. Leon must be at the top of a lot of teams wish lists. He wouldn’t have to shop him per se.

They’ll sign him I think and it will be a lot. I mentioned last post that I wonder if teams are aware of something we aren’t around the cap or coming CBA given the contracts they’re giving, or maybe it’s the typical overpaying they do at this time of year.

Another angle is that these two contracts become value deals because they’ll cause such salary inflation.

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 9:48 am

frjohnk: Yes, but what I was getting at is that this team will not only be up against the cap next year, but we may lose more key pieces by then.

Next year compared to this year
we will have less players on value deals and more players getting paid closer to what they are worth.

If he has another good year,Maroon may be looking for 4M if not more.Nuge will be getting 6M.Chances that both are gone by next summer are extremely high.

Yes. It will always be thus, partly because McDavid floats all boats. Lots of pressure on procurement.

jake70 July 4, 2017 - 9:47 am

Cassandra:

And why are we talking as if Draisatl has so much leverage?He has the same leverage as Kucherov, Gaudeau, Lindholm, last year and none of them signed for more than 8 million.

His leverage I think comes not from other team’s players and roster dynamics but from internally and his name is Connor. If the McDavid number is true in Leon’s camp’s view, then what % of that number should their client get. For example at 8M cap hit…… 8/13.25 x100 = 60%…..that’s the problem.

The Trade Guy July 4, 2017 - 9:43 am

Cassandra:
In baseball when a player signs a long term contract it usually means less annual money.

Why is it the opposite in hockey?

If I am the Oilers and I have to choose between 8 x 9 and 2 x 6 (number LT threw out last night) I choose the latter and feel great about it.Less term (and hence less risk) and less money.What is not to like?

And why are we talking as if Draisatl has so much leverage?He has the same leverage as Kucherov, Gaudeau, Lindholm, last year and none of them signed for more than 8 million.

Lindholm’s contract is an incredible deal for the Ducks.Why don’t the Oilers get deals like that?

Not sure what baseball players you’re thinking of. I suspect it depends on circumstances. Bryce Harper isn’t going to give any deals. Pre-Arb baseball players get paid peanuts (less than NHL rookie deals)

Draisaitl has more leverage than Gaudreau as I believe Gaudreau wasn’t susceptible to an offer sheet. Leon has that going for him.

As for great deal like Lindholm. How about Klefbom.

And this isn’t directed at anyone in particular but fanbases in all sports seem to think the only good deal are the ones where players vastly out perform their deals. Players are human and they don’t live in a vacuum. I suspect many players might have issues with being underpaid on value deals as nobody likes leaving money on the table.

I’m fine with Connor and Leon trying to get paid. It’s their right, they’re the product. If Connor McDavid can’t get paid than nobody in this sport can.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 9:38 am

t
Cassandra: And why are we talking as if Draisatl has so much leverage? He has the same leverage as Kucherov, Gaudeau, Lindholm, last year and none of them signed for more than 8 million.

Don’t think Gaudreau was eligible for an offer sheet. If those actually exist.

With a UFA I think you are dead right about getting a discount for a longer contract. For RFAs the standard argument was you pay more for more UFA years. That rationale dies if there is no RFA discount for elite players. I’d still expejct to pay a little bit more to buy more peak years of a 20 year old, but not a steep premium. A extra .5M AAV to jump from 4 to 8 is justifiable.

jm363561 July 4, 2017 - 9:34 am

dustrock:
I honestly don’t trust Dreger as a source as much as I used to.There’s better connected guys out there.

I wonder if you could sign a bridge deal and then trade him?

====

Dreger? Or Leon?

jm363561 July 4, 2017 - 9:29 am

Cassandra,

Great post(s).

npanciroli July 4, 2017 - 9:27 am

Cassandra,

Agreed 100%. I don’t sign him until its 7.5 or less for 8 years. If you get an offersheet make a decision then, otherwise make him sweat.

dustrock July 4, 2017 - 9:25 am

I don’t think it will take the fanbase long to turn on Draisaitl, to be honest.

This town has never been a fan of players going for as much money as possible.

Woogie63 July 4, 2017 - 9:25 am

Howson is back in the Oiler management fold and Dreger has more details of the team’s inner workings.

Cassandra July 4, 2017 - 9:24 am

In baseball when a player signs a long term contract it usually means less annual money.

Why is it the opposite in hockey?

If I am the Oilers and I have to choose between 8 x 9 and 2 x 6 (number LT threw out last night) I choose the latter and feel great about it. Less term (and hence less risk) and less money. What is not to like?

And why are we talking as if Draisatl has so much leverage? He has the same leverage as Kucherov, Gaudeau, Lindholm, last year and none of them signed for more than 8 million.

Lindholm’s contract is an incredible deal for the Ducks. Why don’t the Oilers get deals like that?

Zack July 4, 2017 - 9:23 am

Obviously signing McDavid and Draisaitl are priority.

However, I feel that Chiarelli has the window of amazing opportunity, with the best or second best player in the world with a value contract and he’s completely sh*tting the bed making Russell a priority on defense. Of course we have to bolster it but how hard would it have been to work out a deal with Garth Snow sending Eberle + Prospect and or Picks to NYI for Strome and Hamonic?

Perhaps something behind the scenes but I feel like PC is doing a very poor job making the most of the “value” time he has left.

Forwards could use an addition or so but that defence and back up position needs some work.

Kinger_Oil.redux July 4, 2017 - 9:23 am

– Great post LT! We will find out soon enough but how “sure” are you that McD signs for $13.25×8?

– I’m just asking for a friend.

– It’s true that the more money Drai and McD make, the less good the team will be. A shorter deal as has been suggested, is just kicking the can down the road though.

– Interesting off season…

jm363561 July 4, 2017 - 9:21 am

A lot depends on how you define a “value contract”. Based on last season’s performance:

McD, Leon, Benning, Maroon, Kassian and Letestu, yep.
Talbot, Klefbom, Larsson, you could debate. Great value for money.
Sleps, Caggs, Nurse, Strome, (Khaira/PJ), nope, but hope.
Sekera, Russell, Lucic, RNH, we are where we are (or not, in the case of RNH).

There is good reason to believe the “yeps” and “debates” will continue to deliver value. There is an awful lot of hoping that that the “nopes” step up, and we schedule daily prayers that this comes to pass (and that all ends well with Connor and Leon.)

N64 July 4, 2017 - 9:17 am

npanciroli: I can’t nail down what that “something else” was, but it was not insignificant. It was a big price to pay, and Edmonton did not want to do that.”

Swap of picks fits that bill. The whole thing is shades of rumors. And which ones got tweeted by TSN guys and which one got memorialized on tsn.ca.

dustrock July 4, 2017 - 9:16 am

I honestly don’t trust Dreger as a source as much as I used to. There’s better connected guys out there.

I wonder if you could sign a bridge deal and then trade him?

Cassandra July 4, 2017 - 9:14 am

npanciroli:
Cassandra,

The deal was rumoured as Subban for Draisaitl + Klefbom/Nurse + 4th + something else.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-couldnt-edmonton-montreal-make-deal/

Unless someone can point me to otherwise I’m not seeing a swap of picks.

“Montreal initially asked for Leon Draisaitl, the No. 4 pick at Friday’s draft and more. That “more” included either Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse, plus something else. I can’t nail down what that “something else” was, but it was not insignificant. It was a big price to pay, and Edmonton did not want to do that.”

Considering the Canadians ended up settling for so much less than that report I find that hard to believe. It would require Bergevin having no idea who to tally value. Which I guess, isn’t so hard to believe.

misfit July 4, 2017 - 9:11 am

Markov would be a perfect stop-gap for Sekera in that Sekera would return from injury right around the time Markov will sustain his.

I kid. Markov has actually been surprisingly resilient the last 3-4 years after a pretty brutal string of injuries that seemed to go on for ages.

But, like everything else, we have to wait until Leon/Connor get their new deals before we even think about adding. Markov may take a 1 year contract, but I suspect he’ll command a healthy salary to do so.

npanciroli July 4, 2017 - 9:10 am

Cassandra,

The deal was rumoured as Subban for Draisaitl + Klefbom/Nurse + 4th

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-couldnt-edmonton-montreal-make-deal/

Unless someone can point me to otherwise I’m not seeing a swap of picks.

“Montreal initially asked for Leon Draisaitl, the No. 4 pick at Friday’s draft and more. That “more” included either Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse, plus something else. I can’t nail down what that “something else” was, but it was not insignificant. It was a big price to pay, and Edmonton did not want to do that.”

Pescador July 4, 2017 - 9:09 am

Cassandra,

Leon is RFA so he can only get 7 years from other teams.

N64 July 4, 2017 - 9:09 am

“I cannot tell you how many times I’ve seen this, only that it rarely ever ends well.”

Pretty much. Trade value is already hammered.

“we’re looking at a new world order in terms of salaries given out to young players. Veterans will get screwed, the deals signed by Edmonton earlier in the summer (Russell) instantly an albatross”.

That also hits the trade value of the Austins (RNH and Lucic)

“The agent is attempting to change the market, in an effort to slice the money pie in a different way”.

The sea change isn’t just Drai’s agent. It’s Connor’s agent and all of the major agencies and the PA grabbing the wheel here. No going back. Poor Lou.

The best scenarios here are getting as low as possible in the 8s for max or as low in the 7s as possible for 4 years.

Anything under 4 years is going to be about scheduling an amputation and sailing around the world before your date with the surgeon.

As early as 3 summers from now we could be facing a Fall lockout and the uncertainty of a a new CBA added to the uncertainty of a 20 year old’s sample sizes.

The best outcome is probably getting max in the 8s with the upside relying on 29 and the cap and your downside relying on a 1/3 buyout 4 summers from now. If the extra AAV for max is reasonable I’d bet on max.

frjohnk July 4, 2017 - 9:08 am

Lowetide: Almost always the way with value deals.

Yes, but what I was getting at is that this team will not only be up against the cap next year, but we may lose more key pieces by then.

Next year compared to this year
we will have less players on value deals and more players getting paid closer to what they are worth.

If he has another good year,Maroon may be looking for 4M if not more. Nuge will be getting 6M. Chances that both are gone by next summer are extremely high.

Gret99zky July 4, 2017 - 9:07 am

How can Leon possibly perform to a $9M per salary away from McDavid? He will have to drive his own line and put up 80-90 points every year. Unpossible. And when he doesn’t cover the bet MSM like Spector and Rishaug will lead the run him out of town parade.

Cassandra July 4, 2017 - 9:05 am

The problem with the trade Draisatl idea is that if he really wants 9 Million dollars it will be hard to get value back for him.

How much do we think Draisatl would get as an UFA. I think 9 x 8 is close to or higher than he would get as an UFA. Since UFA’s that don’t sign for a discount are subject to the winner’s curse, pretty much every one has very little trade value.

It is a quandary, but it is so Chiarelli to be the guy that this happens to when every other RFA seems to realize that signing a long term deal as an RFA means taking less than they would as an UFA.

The play is to wait him out. There is no reason to give him 8 x 9 without an offer sheet. No one is foolhardy enough to give him 10 million and the four first round picks.

This also recasts the Subban rumours from last year. If you can’t trade for Subban because of his 9 million cap hit then what does that say about Draisatl at 9 million.

If the deal was Subban for Draisatl, Nurse, and a swap of picks (as LT said yesterday and as a hypothetical since we don’t really know) then not doing the deal really hurt the Oilers.

Hall is better than Draisatl
Subban is better than Larsson
Sergachev and Puljujarvi are TBD but at least equal now

So the cost is Nurse for the upgrades to Hall and Subban. My only worry about that deal is that Subban looked slower to me with Nashville. But that’s just my lying eyes. His Dangerous Fenwick is off the charts good.

D July 4, 2017 - 9:05 am

Is it possible to replace Draisaitl’s production with two players making less than six million dollars and three million dollars separately? If so, then Draisaitl may not have a lot of leverage.

Lowetide July 4, 2017 - 8:51 am

frjohnk:
All these guys need new contracts next year.

Almost always the way with value deals. One deal that could be value in 2018-19? Kailer Yamamoto.

Rondo July 4, 2017 - 8:43 am

If you were to trade Draisaitl I guess Nathan McKinnon makes some sense because of age and his contract. If it came down to it Barkov would be my choice but I think they will come to an agreement.

jake70 July 4, 2017 - 8:42 am

Wiki says Germany is in group C at Olympics in 2018.

frjohnk July 4, 2017 - 8:38 am

“Here are my nominees for value contracts in 2016-17 (need six):
Connor McDavid $.925M (plus $2.850M in bonus) ($3.775 million total)
Ryan Strome $2.5M
Patrick Maroon $1.5M
Anton Slepyshev $.925M (plus $.600M in bonus) ($1.525 million total)
Drake Caggiula $.925M (plus $.425M in bonus) ($1.350 million total)
Matt Benning $.925M (plus $.300M in bonus) ($1.225 million total)
Darnell Nurse $.863M (plus $.850M in bonus) ($1.713333 million total)”

All these guys need new contracts next year.

If its McDavid at 13+ and Drai 9+ its bye bye Maroon and Nuge. If one of Strome, Sleppy, Nurse, Cag, Benning take a huge step forward this year and knock it out of the park its possible that player is gone as well.

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