OILERS SIGN MCDAVID

by Lowetide

It has been an eventful year for Connor McDavid. He reached the century mark in points at the end of the regular season, a romp to the scoring title. He would add the Hart and Lindsay trophies to the Art Ross, and today, he signed a long-term contract with the Edmonton Oilers. The most valuable future in hockey will play at Rogers Place for a long, long time. The contract is eight years, $12.5 million per season, via myriad sources.

Lots of talk today about the contract and cap and that’s fair, because it’s news. Consider this: Connor McDavid scored 71 EV points in 2016-17, and he did that in 1418:05 EV minutes. That works out to 3.00 per 60 at evens.

CONNOR MCDAVID 2016-17 SEASON

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.89 (1st among regular forwards, No. 1 NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.96 (3rd among regular forwards, No. 24 NHL)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 52.9
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %; 3.5
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 55.2
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 7.3
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 251 shots/12.0%
  • Boxcars: 82, 30-70-100 (Won Art Ross Trophy)
  • Hart Trophy
  • Lindsay Award
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)
  • Special thanks to GMoney and Woodguy for sharing the DFF’s

 

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Hall Awaits

CONNOR MCDAVID. The Hockey Gods truly blessed an entire city and fanbase. Incredible.

Chachi

Professor Q,

Agreed!

Professor Q

Chachi: http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/jaromir-jagr-blackmailed-with-photo-could-not-care-less-about-it

I do feel really terrible about her boyfriend/his teammate in that scenario, however. Never an excuse for that.

Gross misconduct

Hey Toronto…Mcdavid is happy here. Time to move on from the Mcdavid will bolt from Edmonton first chance he gets narrative.

Oddspell

Joey Legs files for arbitration.

gogliano

One thing that doesn’t get mentioned enough is that McDavid’s contract doesn’t kick in until next year. An NHL inflation-adjusted 2017-2018 salary equivalent to his first year on the new K is closer to $12 million.

That’s value all the way through for the best player in the world but it will be a wonderful contract on the back half.

N64

godot10:
Lucic ($6 million)
Draisaitl ($8.67 million)
McDavid ($12.5 million)

Lucic x 1.44 = Draisaitl
Draisaitl x 1.44 = McDavid.

I think Draisaitl should come in between $8.5 and $9 million on a 8-year deal.

I expect 8 x 8.5, but I think a fairer contract would give us more balance:

Draisaitl ($7.725 million)
McDavid ($12.5 million)
Total ($20.225 million)

Draisaitl x 1.618 = McDavid
McDavid x 1.618 = Total

Then LT can post a balance photo:

comment image

Scungilli Slushy

VOR:
Scungillis slushy,

Good on you for trying to point out the problem.

A few minor caveats. The first is Benning, Cagguila, Slepyshev, and Strome have arbitration rights I believe. So your numbers for them are probably far too low based on average arbitration awards (if the players choose to go that route – and at your numbers they would). I don’t think your take less now and we will pay you more later idea works because even in your model it is very hard to see where that future money would come from – and the players will know there is a chance the cap goes flat.

If they arb out then Benning is probably $2.5 to $3.0 Slepy is $2.0-$2.5, Strome is $3.0, and Cagguila is $2.0-$2.5. This assumes the Oilers get lucky in arbitration with each player. It also assumes they all continue to progress. If they don’t the Oilers are in deep, deep trouble. If any of them really go super nova and that isn’t impossible while it is great this coming year next year the Oilers are in deep, deep trouble. The Oilers, your efforts are clearly showing they are the Goldilocks team their young players all have to improve just right – not too little, not too much. I am not liking the odds.

If Brossoit plays 20 games as good as the few he played this year he will want more than a million dollars and Nurse is, as far as I am concerned a big black box. If the Oilers sign a free agent D to help out this year my guess is your number is probably good. If they don’t he might well get $2 million plus.

That would put you over the existing cap. You have to move Nuge for futures. But you get Maroon back.

Now try to fit in Kailer Yamamoto and his bonuses which will leave you with a big bonus penalty in 2019-2020. With Talbot and Puljujarvi to sign and now all these cap hits continuing forward.

Assume your lineup with Nuge out, Maroon in, and Yamamoto in plus a lower end free agent signing. Is that team good enough to win a Stanley Cup?

What you have convinced me of is that the Oilers need to try to go for the Cup this year. Because even with a $3 million cap increase into 2018-2019 and another in 2019-2020 the Oilers are going to be forced to run with in-house developed talent and endless cheap new kids and lower end free agents and golden oldies. Yes, it worked for Pittsburgh but they had a mature tandem that happens to include (especially if you adjust the numbers for the dead puck era) – two of the best playoff scorers hockey has ever seen.

Yes they could lose players to cap. My thought is that Nurse and Benning can be asked to wait a year so cap can be cleared.

One change that has been discussed and I think valid is that if the league’s best players start to get paid high cap % it has to push down everyone else. If the team has another great year players might choose, as they do with other contending teams, to take less to be a role player on a contender, as opposed to getting more and living it up out of the playoffs in Miami, Las Vegas or Calgary.

If they want money let them go, next man up. If somebody breaks out that is a problem in it’s own contract wise, but then you do have a player that’s emerging, so again adjustments are made and another young guys gets his shot.

If Leon comes in nice the cap pressure is reduced, some of the rumoured or max amounts made it really hard to piece what looks like a strong team on Mr Friendly.

Truth

This announcement is great for the Oilers in regards to Draisaitl. The best player in the league took a max contract length term at discount. Is he going eat up all of those savings by being greedy? Not a good look if he does.

VOR

Scungillis slushy,

Good on you for trying to point out the problem.

A few minor caveats. The first is Benning, Cagguila, Slepyshev, and Strome have arbitration rights I believe. So your numbers for them are probably far too low based on average arbitration awards (if the players choose to go that route – and at your numbers they would). I don’t think your take less now and we will pay you more later idea works because even in your model it is very hard to see where that future money would come from – and the players will know there is a chance the cap goes flat.

If they arb out then Benning is probably $2.5 to $3.0 Slepy is $2.0-$2.5, Strome is $3.0, and Cagguila is $2.0-$2.5. This assumes the Oilers get lucky in arbitration with each player. It also assumes they all continue to progress. If they don’t the Oilers are in deep, deep trouble. If any of them really go super nova and that isn’t impossible while it is great this coming year next year the Oilers are in deep, deep trouble. The Oilers, your efforts are clearly showing they are the Goldilocks team their young players all have to improve just right – not too little, not too much. I am not liking the odds.

If Brossoit plays 20 games as good as the few he played this year he will want more than a million dollars and Nurse is, as far as I am concerned a big black box. If the Oilers sign a free agent D to help out this year my guess is your number is probably good. If they don’t he might well get $2 million plus.

That would put you over the existing cap. You have to move Nuge for futures. But you get Maroon back.

Now try to fit in Kailer Yamamoto and his bonuses which will leave you with a big bonus penalty in 2019-2020. With Talbot and Puljujarvi to sign and now all these cap hits continuing forward.

Assume your lineup with Nuge out, Maroon in, and Yamamoto in plus a lower end free agent signing. Is that team good enough to win a Stanley Cup?

What you have convinced me of is that the Oilers need to try to go for the Cup this year. Because even with a $3 million cap increase into 2018-2019 and another in 2019-2020 the Oilers are going to be forced to run with in-house developed talent and endless cheap new kids and lower end free agents and golden oldies. Yes, it worked for Pittsburgh but they had a mature tandem that happens to include (especially if you adjust the numbers for the dead puck era) – two of the best playoff scorers hockey has ever seen.

Scungilli Slushy:
If Leon comes in under 9M, here is what’s possible (or the like)in 2018-2019

Nuge 6 McDavid 12.5 Slepy 1.5
Lucic 6 Drai 8.75 JP .925
Cagguila 1.5 Strome 2.75 Kassian 1.95
Khaira .675 Malone .650 Pak .850
Gambardella .725
Rattie .750

Klef 4.167 Larsson 4.167
Sekera 5.5 Russell 4
Nurse 1.5 Benning 1.5
Gryba.9

Talbot 4.167
Broissoit 1.0

roster 23
cap 75M
cap hit 73.759M
bonuses 2.5M
cap space 1.24M

LoDog

Bobcaygeon:
So many positives today.

I look at McDavids contract as a value contract and in 3 years it could very well be a value contract vs other elites and the cap.

I still stand pat with Draisaitl at 7.5, the team still needs balance and anything over 7.5 takes away from balance.

The only negative will be reading Lowetide’s “sail on rebel”in the upcoming year.

Agreed. I guessed McD at 12.25 and Drai at 7.5, I could see it being 7.8 but thats it.

Chachi
McNuge93

Soup Fascist: By “young” in context of JJ, you mean under 44 years old, right?

From my perspective anything under 60 is young.

Soup Fascist

McNuge93: Certainly not any ofl the young ladies in Edmonton.

By “young” in context of JJ, you mean under 44 years old, right?

Wild Bill Hunter

commonfan29,

Baloney! Nobody with any inside info told him anything. He either made a shot in the dark guess or quoted somebody making a shot in the dark guess. Please remember this when you want to tell someone how “connected” Elliote Friedman is. btw I am not speaking about you in particular but I read that so many times over the past couple of weeks that it made me just about puke.

McNuge93

McSorley33:

But who can resist the idea of Jaromir Jagr for 1 year ?

Certainly not any ofl the young ladies in Edmonton.

Scungilli Slushy

LadiesloveSmid:
Bob sprinkling in now that this vet they may sign should have some wheels. No Jagr or Iginla I don’t think then. Wonder who, Jokinen?

MAB? *ducks*

Bobcaygeon

So many positives today.

I look at McDavids contract as a value contract and in 3 years it could very well be a value contract vs other elites and the cap.

I still stand pat with Draisaitl at 7.5, the team still needs balance and anything over 7.5 takes away from balance.

The only negative will be reading Lowetide’s “sail on rebel” in the upcoming year.

slopitch

Credit to David Staples for writing that post about him being greedy and taking too much money. Was worth 750k a year.

I kid.

AWESOME NEWS!

VOR

rickithebear: when dealing with people who want to look at the monetary value of contract
at the time of signing.
and not the %
I go back with what did that Player leave per player when it was first signed.

Crosby signed for 8.7m when the cap was 64.3M
64.3M – 8.7M = 55.6M/22players = 2.527M

Mcdavid signed for 12.5M when the cap was 75M
75m – 12.5 = 62.5M/22 players = 2.841M

Crosby that selfish bastard only left 2.527M per player
and
Mcdavid the saint left 2.841M per player.

stops all the flames fans who think in dollars.

Ricki,

Don’t we have to build in the actual average salary per team member. If your math is right (and I didn’t check it) then in the Crosby case you mention at 64.3 cap hit each of the players on an average team would be making an average salary of $2,795,652 and Crosby’s salary reduced that to 2,527,000 a difference of $268,652 or 0.42% of the cap. McDavid’s contract reduces an average salary of $3,260,870 (75/23) to $2,841,000 a difference of $419,870 or 0.56 of the cap.

Just saying.

Awesome news!

Chachi

Ribs: Hmm… Maybe we’re talking Scottie Upshall here.

Scott Hartnell?

godot10

Lucic ($6 million)
Draisaitl ($8.67 million)
McDavid ($12.5 million)

Lucic x 1.44 = Draisaitl
Draisaitl x 1.44 = McDavid.

I think Draisaitl should come in between $8.5 and $9 million on a 8-year deal.

Chachi

Scungilli Slushy: No, he’s a terrible skater and avoids the blue paint.

Also first off the ice after practice.

Ribs

Soup Fascist: Bob also mentioned leadership and ability to fit into the room. Add somebody with boots left – not sure who the mystery man is.

Not many guys available check off all those boxes.

Hmm… Maybe we’re talking Scottie Upshall here.

Scungilli Slushy

Chachi: Was it Jim Matheson?

No, he’s a terrible skater and avoids the blue paint.

McSorley33

99.9999999999999999999999999 % I would hate signing ancient players who have glacial skating speed.

But who can resist the idea of Jaromir Jagr for 1 year ?

Scungilli Slushy

McNuge93: OK, but delete Nuge (I’ll have to change my nickname) and add Maroon. That’s give us a little extra room.

True, the main thing is they can keep things much the same if Leon also comes in a little lower than expected. There will always be some turnover, but that should mean young guys pushing up. Good news.

jake70

Hold it..hold it a minute. Wasn’t he supposed to bolt to Toronto at the first chance he got???

McSorley33

Todd Macallan,

Good call…..

npanciroli

Jokinen or Jagr are who I want.

Todd Macallan

Maybe Mike Fisher is this mystery UFA vet?

franksterra

Soup Fascist,

“boots left” could be issue framing – maybe it is Iggy or JJ and they want to establish a narrative of something better than Absolute Zero Brownian Motion

McSorley33

I am curious as to who Bob is talking about….

Leadership and ability to fit in a room has to be Iggy…..but the boots?

Soup Fascist

Lowetide: Drew Stafford? Someone mentioned that name to me today. He’s not a bullet, but he’s faster than the old pokes.

Bob also mentioned leadership and ability to fit into the room. Add somebody with boots left – not sure who the mystery man is.

Not many guys available check off all those boxes.

Chachi

Lowetide: Drew Stafford? Someone mentioned that name to me today. He’s not a bullet, but he’s faster than the old pokes.

Was it Jim Matheson?

Ribs

LadiesloveSmid:
Bob sprinkling in now that this vet they may sign should have some wheels. No Jagr or Iginla I don’t think then. Wonder who, Jokinen?

Stalberg, maybe.

Ducey

LadiesloveSmid:
Bob sprinkling in now that this vet they may sign should have some wheels. No Jagr or Iginla I don’t think then. Wonder who, Jokinen?

Vanek, Campbell, Chiasson, PA Parenteau, Chris Kelly?

leadfarmer

rickithebear: you can only take the first 8 years.
the other 4 are illegal.
which worsks to 10.8M on a 64.3M cap
16.796%

Mcdavid
12.5M of 75M
16.667M

or we can add the last 4 years of crosbys contract
12 years @ 8.7M
13.530%

Mcdavid
12years @ 9.833M
13.111%

No. Thats his third contract.

rickithebear

Professor Q:
striatic,

He’s still 1.1% of the cap higher than Sid’s cap hit % from second contract, but I’m okay with that.

you can only take the first 8 years.
the other 4 are illegal.
which worsks to 10.8M on a 64.3M cap
16.796%

Mcdavid
12.5M of 75M
16.667M

or we can add the last 4 years of crosbys contract
12 years @ 8.7M
13.530%

Mcdavid
12years @ 9.833M
13.111%

Professor Q

LadiesloveSmid:
Bob sprinkling in now that this vet they may sign should have some wheels. No Jagr or Iginla I don’t think then. Wonder who, Jokinen?

I thought he said that today is his off-day?

YKOil

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
The numbers can be debated until the sun goes down (snip)

Not by me. $12.5M is a pretty fair number for the #1 (or #1A) player in the NHL.

I will, however, continue to debate all other salaries. Except for Lucic’s. No debate there. That contract just makes me want to cry.

The Oiler’s can’t afford anymore Lucic contracts.

rickithebear

Oilin4: But what are the cap hits going to be in for the 2025 season? My guess is there will be more higher than 12.5. It’s not a fair comparison to compare the 4th, 5th or 6th year of a contract’s cap hit to the first year straight up

when dealing with people who want to look at the monetary value of contract
at the time of signing.
and not the %
I go back with what did that Player leave per player when it was first signed.

Crosby signed for 8.7m when the cap was 64.3M
64.3M – 8.7M = 55.6M/22players = 2.527M

Mcdavid signed for 12.5M when the cap was 75M
75m – 12.5 = 62.5M/22 players = 2.841M

Crosby that selfish bastard only left 2.527M per player
and
Mcdavid the saint left 2.841M per player.

stops all the flames fans who think in dollars.

LadiesloveSmid

Bob sprinkling in now that this vet they may sign should have some wheels. No Jagr or Iginla I don’t think then. Wonder who, Jokinen?

McNuge93

Scungilli Slushy:
If Leon comes in under 9M, here is what’s possible (or the like)in 2018-2019

Nuge 6 McDavid 12.5 Slepy 1.5
Lucic 6 Drai 8.75 JP .925
Cagguila 1.5 Strome 2.75 Kassian 1.95
Khaira .675 Malone .650 Pak .850
Gambardella .725
Rattie .750

Klef 4.167 Larsson 4.167
Sekera 5.5 Russell 4
Nurse 1.5 Benning 1.5
Gryba.9

Talbot 4.167
Broissoit 1.0

roster 23
cap 75M
cap hit 73.759M
bonuses 2.5M
cap space 1.24M

OK, but delete Nuge (I’ll have to change my nickname) and add Maroon. That’s give us a little extra room.

N64

When he retires would like to nominate Stamkos as Team Canada head scout:

“I think he’s better than me right now. I wouldn’t have a second thought on saying that.”

Sept. 8 2015

linkfromhyrule

McNuge93: Ahh com on. the Leafs have a pretty good young star as well. Next year it will be them sweating to see how much they have to pay to lock him up.

My comment was directed to a certain portion of Leaf fans who were apparent experts in reading facial expressions on lottery day.

“Look at how disappointed he is that it was Edmonton”
“He’ll leave that s**thole city at the first chance he gets”
“Maybe he’ll hold out and refuse to play there”
“The NHL should have rigged the lottery in favour of the Leafs”

This is as much a vindication as it is a total win for the team and city. Whether they were right or not about Mcdavid’s feeling post-lottery win, he has still chosen to sign and play here for the prime of his career. A GTA boy chose the Albertan hinterland for the prime of his career, rather than the centre of the universe.

This is a wonderful, great day.

fuzzy muppet

Nothing beats landing in San Francisco and opening your phone to this brilliant news!

barry.moore23

Is this a good time to sneak in that I love Kris Russell, Milan Lucic, Connor McDavid, LT, Woodguy and all things Edmonton Oilers ???

Woo hoo !!!