A SATISFIED MIND

by Lowetide

As the trade deadline approached in 2011, Peter Chiarelli was on the lookout for veteran help. He wanted a two-way forward with enough utility to play special teams, win faceoffs and chip in a little offensively. Boston also needed a power-play quarterback and the back of the defensive depth chart was leaking. Further, the Bruins needed someone to ignite the offense and get the bottom 6F’s headed in a good direction.

  • On February 15, two weeks before the deadline, he dealt his 2011 second-round pick to the Ottawa Senators for C-L Chris Kelly. Kelly was 30 at that time and had been playing well in Ottawa. The pick ended up being Shane Prince.
  • On February 18, Chiarelli traded PF Blake Wheeler and defender Mark Stuart to the Atlanta Thrashers for F Rich Peverley and D Boris Valabik. It was a stunning trade, Wheeler was a productive player whose only crime was a subpar offensive season.
  • On February 18, Boston dealt Joe Colborne, their 2011 first-round pick (Rickard Rakell) and a conditional 2012 pick (second round, Mike Winther) to the Toronto Maple Leafs for D Tomas Kaberle.
  • On February 26, Boston signed D Shane Hnidy. He had been recovering from rotator cuff surgery, one of the reasons for such a late signing.
  • On February 28, the club dealt the rights to Mikko Lehtonen and D Jeff Penner to the Minnesota Wild for G Anton Khudobin.

Boston won the Stanley. Peter Chiarelli gave up an enormous amount of talent in acquiring very specific things. The first-round pick and two seconds could not help him win the 2011 Stanley, Wheeler had been in a long slump, Joe Colborne wasn’t enough. Chiarelli dropped gigantic amounts of gold, Boston won the Stanley.

WHAT TO DO WITH THE MONEY

The Edmonton Oilers have money and will have enough to add a substantial piece in the days after signing Leon Draisaitl. Chiarelli is in good shape for an offer sheet for Leon and could come out of that negotiation with $5 million+ to spend on a player(s) before opening night.

  • I would like to see an additional RHD (Cody Franson), a C-L who can slide in to replace Benoit Pouliot and offer insurance against Ryan Strome struggling. If that player can kill penalties, it will be encouraging.
  • If we apply the lessons learned above from the 2011 deadline, the roster is going to get a haircut at the deadline. Players moving out might be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Anton Slepyshev and Mark Fayne, depending on who performs well.
  • I think the Oilers will hold on to Jesse Puljujarvi and the 2018 first-round pick but you never know. Beyond that, if PC thinks he can win the Cup, expect major moves. I can’t see any other reason why Edmonton would hold back their water today and wait for another time.
  • The only way to avoid it? I would think Puljujarvi, Slepyshev and Caggiula emerging as 15-goal options would be enough. If you assume the top line (as above) is likely to score 82 goals (the trio delivered 86 last year), then the 2 and 3 lines would need to produce 96 goals (92 a year ago) to approach last year’s total.
  • Can Lucic-Nuge-Slepyshev score 50? Can Caggiula-Strome-Puljujarvi? I think we’ll see a trade at the deadline if Edmonton continues to ignore the lack of proven offense on the wings.
  • Don’t sleep on Kailer Yamamoto. I think there’s a chance he makes this team, at least for the first nine games. If I’m right about his offense being superior to Jesse Puljujarvi’s, then a look in pre-season may allow Yamamoto the chance to showcase his skills. I am not arguing in favor (or against) but do believe it’s a real possibility.

BILLY MOORES CUP

You can’t tell much from a highlight reel, but the Oilers most recent draft was impressive in Jasper last night in the Billy Moores Cup. Stuart Skinner drew good reviews, Kirill Maksimov showed good hands in scoring a hat-trick, and both Kailer Yamamoto and Ostap Safin scored twice. Encouraging results for an organization that is in dire need of scoring wingers.

The arbitration process this summer is a little off. Leon Draisaitl’s contract negotiations could stretch out to August and beyond, Joey Laleggia filed and Dillon Simpson did not file. Bogdan Yakimov is not a roster player, although Edmonton retains his rights. I have both minor leaguers as early callup options for 2017-18, still a little nonplussed about the Laleggia filing.

WHAT ABOUT NEXT YEAR’S FREE AGENTS?

A lot of talk about cap hell coming next year for Peter Chiarelli but I don’t see it that way. This season will be a lot about moving parts and next summer probably brings some goodbyes. Let’s have a look at the projected free agents.

  • Patrick Maroon, UFA. I think it’ll be a quick negotiation either way. If Maroon scores 27 again, he will have earned a handsome raise. Suspect Edmonton will make an offer well below market value and Maroon will sign elsewhere. This is going to be a theme among McDavid wingers for the next decade.
  • Mark Letestu, UFA. He was the No. 2 playoff scorer this spring and brings lots of utility. He is also 32, so PC will need to be aware of erosion. Suspect Letestu gets a two-year deal.
  • Mark Fayne, UFA. He will not receive an offer.
  • Matt Benning, RFA. Too soon to know, but he may emerge as the most valuable signing next summer. Could $4 million times five get it done? If he repeats his rookie season, getting a long-term deal in place will be a big priority. Has a chance to become the new Dan Boyle in Todd McLellan’s scheme.
  • Darnell Nurse, RFA. A lock to sign long term, the question here is cap. I’ve heard intelligent people suggest $2.5 million times whatever, but doubt that gets it done. This may end up being the most interesting negotiation of the year.
  • Ryan Strome, RFA. If he delivers a strong season, Strome gets signed long-term next summer. The cap hit will probably be mid-level ($4 million?) but he has a chance to be part of the cluster if things break right.
  • Anton Slepyshev, RFA. Anything could happen here, from a trade to long-term deal. Slepyshev is in a good spot but will need to deliver quickly, as the organization will be more patient with Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • Drake Caggiula, RFA. A Chiarelli signing, I expect the second contract gets signed quickly and without fanfare. He plays a physical style and may cash more in year two (had tons of chances). Outside chance he emerges as 97’s scoring winger, hopefully they sign him before that happens.
  • Laurent Brossoit, RFA. His current season will tell us a lot and the range of possibilities is large. He could get a multi-year deal or lose the backup job, or could get thrust into a starting role due to injury. Could also lose ground due to the emergence of another goalie in the system.
  • Iiro Pakarinen, RFA. A fringe winger, tough to say how things roll out. Pitlick’s exit gets him in a better spot to make the team and he does have some scoring ability. If he plays well in a support role, expect the Oilers to bring him back again.

THOUGHTS ON MCDAVID

Yesterday’s signing means the Edmonton Oilers will be Stanley Cup contenders from now through the middle of the 2020’s, possibly beyond. Important to make good personnel decisions and be strong in procurement, but 97’s presence gives the Oilers a fantastic edge. Yesterday’s news was a massive step for an organization trying to go from perennial loser to Stanley Cup champion. No negotiation this century could have had the same impact.

Speeds over at The Hockey Symposium has a post up that mentions the McDavid contract but focuses on the anticipated deal for Leon Draisaitl. Well worth the read (the first of three by speeds).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning with plenty of Oilers chatter. We get underway at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. McDavid contract, what happens if Yamamoto shoots the moon in training camp?
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report. Scouting reports on Brian Ferlin (former Bruins prospect) as well as recent draft picks Skyler Brind’Amour and Phillip Kemp.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL Week Three, McDavid deal and what it means to the Oilers, plus the impact on men like Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes from now!

 

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TO10801

That Sekera injury really sets up a tricky situation for PC. You really don’t need another Dman signed beyond this year, as neither Nurse or Benning deserve to be in the press box. I wonder if he will look to add someone like Garrison or Sbisa with retained salary to provide some extra cover until Sekera gets back.

Rondo

LT,

Doesn’t Jussi Jokinen make some sense to sign as a free agent. I think he would help Puljujarvi especially the language barrier . Also he is good on face offs. Obviously price is the question

speeds

TO10801,

Brian Campbell hasn’t signed yet, AFAIK. He had a one year deal last year, maybe the Oilers look at him?

Jaxon

I’d bet that Chiarelli has multiple standing offers to a bunch of players willing to do a one-year deal. With the cap crunch coming for the 2018-2019 season, that’s almost all he can do. So there are a bunch of players/agents out there who know Chiarelli’s offer and are waiting to see if they’ll get a better multi-year deal from another team. If they don’t as they approach training camp, they’ll swing back to Chiarelli. Most likely, these are the veterans with a higher cap ask, but more risk involved with their age. Chiarelli may also have offers on some fringe reclamation projects for cheap multi-year deals and is just waiting on them to circle back to his offer.

1-year deals for veteran candidates:
Jaromir Jagr (LH-RW), Matt Cullen (C/LW), Brian Gionta (RHW), Mike Ribeiro (LHC), PA Parenteau (RW)
RHD – Dennis Wideman, Nate Prosser, Tom Gilbert
Older Alberta-Borns who may find coming home for one year an attractive option:
Shane Doan (RHW), Jarome Iginla (RW), Scottie Upshall (LW), Rene Bourque (LW).

Fringe Players, reclamation projects, AHL, & WHL Players who may be cheap enough and desperate enough to sign low cap hit, multiyear deals and have enough upside and youth that a gamble may work out:
RHD – Darren Dietz (recently KHL bound), Nick Ebert (AHL), Aaron Irving (WHL Oil King), Michael Paliotta (AHL), Clayton Kirichenko (WHL).
Forwards:
Alex Chiasson (RW), Jimmy Hayes (RW), Brandon Pirri (LHCW), Dwight King (LHW), Ryan White (RHC).

I don’t think he will be in the market on any UFAs who will likely get a 2 or more year deal at a $2M or more price tag:
RHD – Cody Franson, Roman Polak, Zbynek Michalek.
Thomas Vanek (W), Mike Fisher (C), Daniel Winnik (C), Drew Stafford (W).

Anything that is 2 or more years and over $2M just takes away Chiarelli’s ability to hold onto and re-sign Benning, Nurse, Strome, Slepyshev and Caggiula. It would deinfitely necessitate trading Nuge if he signs a bigger contract to a multi-year deal.

OriginalPouzar

Kind of tough to project cap hits on these impending free agents with an entire season to play first.

I can’t imagine Maroon being back – even if he regresses to something like 20-22 goals, he’ll likely command at least $4M/season if not higher – unless Nuge is traded for lesser player/picks/prospects, there won’t be any money for Patty – the revolving door of wingers has already started.

I love Matty Bennign but, at this point, I’m not going to project $4M with term – he’s not that player yet – hopefully he will be in 8 months as we are relying on him to cover 2RD to start the season.

Scungilli Slushy

speeds:
TO10801,

Brian Campbell hasn’t signed yet, AFAIK.He had a one year deal last year, maybe the Oilers look at him?

I can imagine their interest, but from what I have read Campbell’s top priority is the comfort of his family, going to the Hawks was about that. I have read he’ll retire if not back with them. Feelings can change of course, and Connor.

speeds

OriginalPouzar,

It’s hard to know exactly what Maroon projects to.

Both Maroon and Eaves had notably bigger years last year than anything in their NHL careers, Eaves with 32 goals to Maroon’s 27. Eaves just signed for 3 years, 3.15AAV, and seems like a really strong comparable?

godot10

None of those comparables Speeds uses are 8-year comparables…looking at the TOTAL compensation those players are likely to receive over 8 years.

Draisaitl would clearly accept less on a comparable deal of five or six years. But then the Oilers lose cost control in the latter half of McDavid’s deal, when they would have to re-sign Draisaitl.

Centres like Draisaitl, as I argued yesterday, receive at the time of signing typically 11-11.5% of the cap for the eight years after their ELC. That puts Draisaitl in the mid-$8 million something over eight years.
That is the market based on the last decade for eight contract years coming out of an ELC.

That, and McDavid has reset the market undeniably higher, and Tavares, Seguin, Eichel, and Matthews will soon follow.

One cannot tell Draisaitl that McDavid’s contract doesn’t exist.

Shau-co

I could see a player like Nurse being traded. Similar to Blake Wheeler. Young, lots of potential but still unproven and will hold a lot of value on the trade market.

I would love to see Edmonton add Duchene. If they could get both Duchene and Barrie, maybe we see the balance picture this year.

TO10801

Rondo:
LT,

Doesn’t Jussi Jokinen make some sense to sign as a free agent. I think he would helpPuljujarvi especially the language barrier . Also he is good on face offs. Obviouslyprice is the question

I think Jokinen would be a perfect fit. Then you would have 5C’s in the top 6 and could run something like:
Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Caggiula-Jokinen-Strome
Sleppy-Letestu-Kassian
Khaira-Pak

I would like to think that 3rd line could do some damage against soft competition.

Jaxon

Crunching the numbers above and with Nugent-Hopkins, Benning, Nurse, Strome, Caggiula, Slepyshev still on the roster at the numbers hinted at or mentioned above. With Maroon, Letestu and Fayne gone. Drasaitl getting $8.5M per. I have (bonuses included) the Oilers at $4.844M over a $77M cap.

At least two of Strome, Nurse, or Benning will have to go with only prospects or picks coming back. Or Nugent-Hopkins and one of Strome, Nurse or Benning has to go with a player coming back who makes less than $3 or $4M (think Gudbranson, Gudas, Gallagher, or Jenner). The rest of the players either are not moveable (NMCS: Lucic, Sekera, Russell, Talbot), or won’t save enough to make a difference. Some combo of Kassian’s 1.95M contract might be able to help somewhere, though.

That also fills your roster with a lot of inexperience.

In that scenario, I have Benson, Khaira, Gambardella on LW with Lucic, McDavid, Draisaitl, Strome and Caggiula down the middle, Puljujarvi, Slepyshev, Kassian and Pakarinen on RW, Malone as 13th FWD.

On D, I have Klefbom-Larsson, Sekera-Gudas, Russell-Benning, Paigin-Gryba

G – Talbot-Brossoit (or Ellis)

This lineup puts Edmonton right at the cap with bonuses included with $10,000 to spare.

The D pairings would be pretty solid with Gudas in there. LW looks awful, C is okay with Strome as 3C. RW looks awful, too. If Nugent-Hopkins went for something like Gallagher or Jenner, then the hole shifts from wings to D.

That Lucic contract is going to stick out like a sore thumb next summer. So will Russell’s.

Jaxon

Does anyone have a definitive (and sourced) answer on whether Russell’s has a full NMC kicks that in right away and becomes a modified NMC on July 1, 2019 or he has no clauses until his modified NMC kicks in on July 1st, 2019. I’m finding conflicting info. There were reports that there was no NMC until the modified NMC in his 3rd year, but CapFriendly has it as a full NMC until the 3rd year when it becomes a modified NMC.

Ducey

Rondo:
LT,

Doesn’t Jussi Jokinen make some sense to sign as a free agent. I think he would helpPuljujarvi especially the language barrier . Also he is good on face offs. Obviouslyprice is the question

The guy is consistently inconsistent. He has great years and then turns into a pumpkin. He is 34.

Pumpkin is increasingly likely.

I would not sign him unless it was dirt cheap ($1 M or less).

Pak can be the interpreter, if one is needed.

Ideally he is interpreting in the AHL because the Oilers have signed someone to keep JP and him on the farm

speeds

godot10:
None of those comparables Speeds uses are 8-year comparables…looking at the TOTAL compensation those players are likely to receive over 8 years.

Draisaitl would clearly accept less on a comparable deal of five or six years.But then the Oilers lose cost control in the latter half of McDavid’s deal, when they would have to re-sign Draisaitl.

Scheifele and Tarasenko were 8 years, Monahan was 7 years, Barkov and Gaudreau 6 years.

If my choice was 6 years of Draisaitl at 6.5M or 8 years at 8.5M, I’d take the contract without the 2 additional years at a cost of 14.5M per year.

Snowman

godot10:
None of those comparables Speeds uses are 8-year comparables…looking at the TOTAL compensation those players are likely to receive over 8 years.

Draisaitl would clearly accept less on a comparable deal of five or six years.But then the Oilers lose cost control in the latter half of McDavid’s deal, when they would have to re-sign Draisaitl.

Centres like Draisaitl, as I argued yesterday, receive at the time of signing typically 11-11.5% of the cap for the eight years after their ELC. That puts Draisaitl in the mid-$8 million something over eight years.
That is the market based on the last decade for eight contract years coming out of an ELC.

Draisaitl is likely a centre for years to come. However, he hasn’t proved much of anything at center aside from 4 good games against the Ducks. His contract will be based on his performance as a winger playing with the best player on Earth. I think you are likely right the with the mid 8s. But it shouldn’t be because he a) hasn’t proved himself in the pivot role (maybe he’s an 80 point winger with Mcdavid and a 50 point center without him, I don’t know if that’s the case but that’s the problem nobody does) b) he’s been zoomed by Connor.

Jaxon

speeds:
OriginalPouzar,

It’s hard to know exactly what Maroon projects to.

Both Maroon and Eaves had notably bigger years last year than anything in their NHL careers, Eaves with 32 goals to Maroon’s 27.Eaves just signed for 3 years, 3.15AAV, and seems like a really strong comparable?

I agree, although, you could argue that Maroon’s 4 years younger, so is more likely to sustain. But, then again, Eaves didn’t have McDavid as his center. So maybe those two components cancel each other out.

I could also see Maroon approaching St. Louis and giving them a big discount to play there, near his son. That video of him getting emotional when his son was cheering in the crowd is pretty powerful evidence. So he may set the bar pretty high to play in Edmonton and pretty low to play in St Louis. I know I’d give a huge discount to play in St Louis if it was my daughter. In the end, it may also be to his advantage to have a more reasonable contract going forward for when he isn’t on McDavid’s line, so he doesn’t become the next overpaid goat.

leadfarmer

Jaxon:
Does anyone have a definitive (and sourced) answer on whether Russell’s has a full NMC kicks that in right away and becomes a modified NMC on July 1, 2019 or he has no clauses until his modified NMC kicks in on July 1st, 2019. I’m finding conflicting info. There were reports that there was no NMC until the modified NMC in his 3rd year, but CapFriendly has it as a full NMC until the 3rd year when it becomes a modified NMC.

He has a NMC for waivers for the 4 years. So he can’t be given the Fayne treatment.
After July 1 2020 he is owed 1.5 million and can be traded to 15 teams. Chia made this so he can dump him on someone his 4th year

Ducey

TO10801: I think Jokinen would be a perfect fit. Then you would have 5C’s in the top 6 and could run something like:
Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl
Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Caggiula-Jokinen-Strome
Sleppy-Letestu-Kassian
Khaira-Pak

I would like to think that 3rd line could do some damage against soft competition.

Jokinen only took 145 faceoffs last year. He is a LW most likely.

10 of his 28 points were on the PP, so he is not killing it 5 x 5 either. He was playing 17+ minutes a night and didn’t produce much. There was reason he was bought out.

He looks like one of those guys that will be making more $ returning to Europe.

Rondo

Ducey,

Jussi Jokinen looks pretty good on the Vollman’s chart

https://twitter.com/robvollmanNHL/status/882793051797692416

Hall Awaits

Jaxon,

Forgot that Dwight King hadn’t signed yet. He might be a nice late pick up and possible Maroon replacement for 2018/19. Had a horrible contract year but still has game.

OriginalPouzar

speeds:
OriginalPouzar,

It’s hard to know exactly what Maroon projects to.

Both Maroon and Eaves had notably bigger years last year than anything in their NHL careers, Eaves with 32 goals to Maroon’s 27.Eaves just signed for 3 years, 3.15AAV, and seems like a really strong comparable?

Valid point, although I think Patty is a few years younger. Also, even at a cap hit around $3.5M, I think that’s too rich for us next year and we need to be hopefull that a JP or a Yakamoto (or even a Benson) will be able to perform in such role on their ELC (or a Caggulia/Slepy on their 2nd cheap contracts and their previous roles replaced by an ELC player).

speeds

leadfarmer: He has a NMC for waivers for the 4 years.So he can’t be given the Fayne treatment.
After July 1 2020 he is owed 1.5 million and can be traded to 15 teams.Chia made this so he can dump him on someone his 4th year

It’s possible that’s why they made it that way. It certainly isn’t ideal to include a year 4 NMC if that’s the case, but it’s possible.

I think I recall hearing Chiarelli say the structure was set up that way at the request of the agent, wanting the money a bit front loaded. That fits with the inclusion of a year 4 NMC, but it’s possible they were both looking at both things.

Jaxon

leadfarmer: He has a NMC for waivers for the 4 years.So he can’t be given the Fayne treatment.
After July 1 2020 he is owed 1.5 million and can be traded to 15 teams.Chia made this so he can dump him on someone his 4th year

Do you have a source for this info? Having a hard time confirming.

Ribs

With all of McDavid’s “team” and “teammates” talk yesterday, it should be difficult for Draisatl to put his name down on an offer sheet now. I think he’d lose a lot of respect from a lot of people if he did that.

That said, money talks. I’d like to see a quick extension done and cement the belief that these guys are here to win together.

speeds

OriginalPouzar: Valid point, although I think Patty is a few years younger. Also, even at a cap hit around $3.5M, I think that’s too rich for us next year and we need to be hopefull that a JP or a Yakamoto (or even a Benson) will be able to perform in such role on their ELC (or a Caggulia/Slepy on their 2nd cheap contracts and their previous roles replaced by an ELC player).

Yup, based on age, wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Maroon get more term, money might depend on this season (unless he signs an extension this summer).

Ribs

Rondo:
Ducey,

Jussi Jokinen looks pretty good on the Vollman’s chart

https://twitter.com/robvollmanNHL/status/882793051797692416

Jokinen always seems to look good by the numbers and yet teams keep jettisoning him into the sun. There must be some kind of unseen baggage that comes with this guy.

TO10801

Ribs: Jokinen always seems to look good by the numbers and yet teams keep jettisoning him into the sun. There must be some kind of unseen baggage that comes with this guy.

The guy had 60 points in 2015-16. I’m not saying pay him a boat load for a long time but a 1yr/2M deal would be a worthwhile investment IMO.

npanciroli

Jokinen or Jagr and Franson or Markov for me.

Markov seems very unlikely but would be awesome on a 1 yr contract.

godot10

Snowman: Draisaitl is likely a centre for years to come. However, he hasn’t proved much of anything at center aside from 4 good games against the Ducks. His contract will be based on his performance as a winger playing with the best player on Earth. I think you are likely right the with the mid 8s. But it shouldn’t be because he a) hasn’t proved himself in the pivot role (maybe he’s an 80 point winger with Mcdavid and a 50 point center without him, I don’t know if that’s the case but that’s the problem nobody does) b) he’s been zoomed by Connor.

Draisaitl played most of his 2nd season at centre…nearly 60 points…and it would have been higher if he had not run out of gas in February, as he still hadn’t built up the endurance to move that big body around against men for a full season.

Scungilli Slushy

There are many reasonable ways to do Draisaitl’s contract. If I had to do it I would set parameters of what I think I can and should do, and go from there.

My priorities are to not cap strap myself especially after Connor’s deal. Then it’s to retain control of the player as long as possible.

If a salary can’t be agreed upon, a bridge ‘show me’ deal works, but there is no way I’m letting a guy coming off an ELC go straight to UFA. Three years or less. In the Tarasenko range works, it’s fair.

If I can go longer, I’ll pay a little more to gain cost certainty. I’d do this by deciding what I’m willing to pay for Connor and Leon as a percentage of the cap, take Connor’s out of that and that is my max. So if it’s 22M, it’s 9.5M.

If neither of those work, this is not an influence I want on my team.

Richard S.S.

There are rumours coming from multiple unreliable/unconfirmable sources that potential Offer Sheets have been presented to the Draisaitl Camp. Since the reported number was in the $7.0 – $7.5 Million per year range, they were probably turned down. I just wonder if Peter Chiarelli knows? I think he does.

JJS

godot10: Draisaitl played most of his 2nd season at centre…nearly 60 points…and it would have been higher if he had not run out of gas in February, as he still hadn’t built up the endurance to move that big body around against men for a full season.

But Hall was pushing that river

I believe Dr Drai is the real deal but he has yet to push a line for a sustained period of time

Hence, there should be some hesitation in using the other comparables at this point

This is a bit of a catch 22 – not unlike Subban – where a bridge deal could help or hinder either side

N64

Scungilli Slushy: If I can go longer, I’ll pay a little more to gain cost certainty. I’d do this by deciding what I’m willing to pay for Connor and Leon as a percentage of the cap, take Connor’s out of that and that is my max. So if it’s 22M, it’s 9.5M

Suspect they’d have Drai already signed for 8 years for that.
Suspect this will end up in the 21-22 range is they close a 8 year deal.

Aron_S

LT,

Here’s a team that I’ve been projecting for 18-19. I’m of the belief that Chiarelli is going to have to go short and low (bridge) for Nurse and Benning (depending on the years they have). As long as Russell and Sekera are on this roster the team is going to be tied down with expensive, long term contracts. Maybe a Nurse or Benning gets moved out in a year or two if one of Bear, Jones or Piagin turn out.

This roster loses Maroon and keeps Nuge and anticipates similar years from Caggiula and Slep.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/402950

It really is going to be about cap management going forward.

Ducey

Richard S.S.:
There are rumours coming from multiple unreliable/unconfirmable sources that potential Offer Sheets have been presented to the Draisaitl Camp.Since the reported number was in the $7.0 – $7.5 Million per year range, they were probably turned down.I just wonder if Peter Chiarelli knows?I think he does.

There are rumours coming from unreliable/ unconfirmable sources?

Well, we should be worried then.

Rondo
Richard S.S.

Generally allow 1/3 of the Cap for top four D plus Goaltender. Allow 1/3 of the Cap for your top three Centers. The remaining 1/3 of the Cap signs everyone else, but any saving from the first 2/3 goes here.

Keeping Nuge means Draisaitl gets $6.5 Million. If Draisaitl gets paid more, they’re unlikely to be able to keep Nuge, but they’ll have to keep Strome. Defense plus Goal is signed for a bargain $22.0 Million, with any saving going to the last group ( the rest of the Team)

This year the Oilers are fine financially, but every move has far reaching significance. If the Cap for the 2018-19 season goes up $1.0 Million, Draisaitl gets $6.833 Million. If it goes up $1.5 million then Draisaitl gets $7.0 Million. To pay Draisaitl $8.0 the Cap must go up $4.8 Million – an unreasonable amount. Does Draisaitl get signed or traded? Do the Oilers keep RNH or trade him?

N64

JJS: Hall was pushing that river

http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/07/a-look-at-nhl-teams-results-with-and.html

STAR DFF% vs ELITE FORWARDS
PLAYER/ON ICE/OFF ICE/DIFF

ZUCCARELLO 56.7 47.1 9.6
SAAD 55.9 47.6 8.3
KUCHEROV 56.3 48.8 7.5
MCDAVID 55.2 47.9 7.3
HALL 54.1 47.3 6.8
STAAL 57.3 51.2 6.1
TAVARES 51 44.9 6.1
MARCHAND 55.6 50.1 5.5
CROSBY 60.3 55.5 4.8
KOIVU 55.5 50.8 4.7
JOHANSEN 55.5 51.1 4.4
KOPITAR 56 51.8 4.2

McNuge93

Sorry this is way off topic but does anybody know how Benson looked at the prospects camp?

jm363561

Aron_S:
Here’s a team that I’ve been projecting for 18-19. I’m of the belief that Chiarelli is going to have to go short and low (bridge) for Nurse and Benning (depending on the years they have). As long as Russell and Sekera are on this roster the team is going to be tied down with expensive, long term contracts. Maybe a Nurse or Benning gets moved out in a year or two if one of Bear, Jones or Piagin turn out.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/402950
It really is going to be about cap management going forward.
======

Thank you for sharing this – a very easy way to look at plausible scenarios. I like Russell and was pretty relaxed about his new contract until I saw your 2018.19 template- hmm. Every extra $100k to Drai matters. Anyone still complaining about the Eberle trade should look at this.

The saving grace might be as elite players are being paid more, the “Middling” players may become cheaper e.g. Eaves, and the “Gritensity” players cheaper still.

Chachi

McNuge93:
Sorry this is way off topic but does anybody know how Benson looked at the prospects camp?

I believe he looked mostly from the stands.

Ducey

Chachi: I believe he looked from the stands.

He skated in the drills but did not play in the games.

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-prospect-tyler-benson-hopes-injury-curse-is-behind-him

Aron_S

jm363561,

Yeah, and it’s also why Jon Willis strenuously arguing against the Pouliot buyout this year (instead of next) really made a lot of sense. It takes away precious cap space for two more years after 18-19 (and unless something big happens at the deadline, it really looks like the Oilers didn’t need that extra 2.67M this season.

McNuge93

Ducey: He skated in the drills but did not play in the games.

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-prospect-tyler-benson-hopes-injury-curse-is-behind-him

Thanks. Still a work in progress I see.

godot10

JJS: But Hall was pushing that river

I believe Dr Drai is the real deal but he has yet to push a line for a sustained period of time

Hence, there should be some hesitation in using the other comparables at this point

This is a bit of a catch 22 – not unlike Subban – where a bridge deal could help or hinder either side

If you bridge him, and let Tavares, Eichel, Matthews, and Seguin sign their contracts, the Oilers are going to be looking at $11 million dollars instead of $8.5 million, which screws up the ability to compete in the 2nd half of McDavid’s deal.

The Oilers can get cost certainly for McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years, which only McDavid’s contract out there right now in the new order of salary scale. They can probably get both for $21 million for eight years.

If you bridge Draisatl, one is looking at over $23 million for those two in the last five years of McDavid’s contract because the new salary structure will be confirmed shortly with four more big signing in Tavares, Matthews, Eichel, and and Seguin.

The OIlers have a small window to get Draisaitl locked in at a good number $8.5 that is manageable.

There is Johanssen coming this summer also, likely with a big number.

N64

godot10: If you bridge him, and let Tavares, Eichel, Matthews, and Seguin sign their contracts, the Oilers are going to be looking at $11 million dollars instead of $8.5 million, which screws up the ability to compete in the 2nd half of McDavid’s deal.

The Oilers can get cost certainly for McDavid and Draisaitl for 8 years, which only McDavid’s contract out there right now in the new order of salary scale.They can probably get both for $21 million for eight years.

If you bridge Draisatl, one is looking at over $23 million for those two in the last five years of McDavid’s contract because the new salary structure will be confirmed shortly with four more big signing in Tavares, Matthews, Eichel, and and Seguin.

The OIlers have a small window to get Draisaitl locked in at a good number $8.5 that is manageable.

There is Johanssen coming this summer also, likely with a big number.

+1.

8 years is gonna be in the 8s.

That money we saved paying Larsson instead of Hall has to go somewhere. Drai not Lucic was always the potential Hall replacement at the river pusher position. Not there yet with larger samples. But decision time, not challenge time.

Ducey

We get all wound up about Leon, but the fact is that there are a ton of RFA’s to be taken care of:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/all/rfa

N64

Ducey:
We get all wound up about Leon, but the fact is that there are a ton of RFA’s to be taken care of:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/all/rfa

yep, top 5 2016-17 point getters shaping the market after mcdavid signed are:

1. Leon Draisaitl 77
2. David Pastrnak 70
3. Mikael Granlund 69
4. Viktor Arvidsson 61
5. Ryan Johansen 61

leadfarmer

Jaxon: Do you have a source for this info? Having a hard time confirming.

Nevermind I was wrong. He has a 2 year NMC, 1 year NTC to 10 teams, 1 year NTC to 15 teams

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2017/06/23/edmonton-oilers-sign-defenceman-kris-russell-to-four-year-contract-worth-4-million-per-season

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-return-of-kris-russell-to-edmonton-oilers-blueline-is-defensible-but-for-four-years

Not that Chia was planning on moving him in the next 2 years anyway

TO10801

N64: yep, top 5 point getters shaping the market after mcdavid signed are:

1. Leon Draisaitl77
2. David Pastrnak70
3. Mikael Granlund69
4. Viktor Arvidsson61
5. Ryan Johansen61

I wonder if Johansen and Draisaitl are waiting to see which of them signs and for what. Kuznetsov should have set the market for young star Cs, so I would expect Drai to come in at around 7.5M and Johansen at 8.5M. The thing to remember with Drai is that we are not buying the UFA years like WSH did with Kuznetsov and that NSH will do with Johansen.