A SATISFIED MIND

by Lowetide

As the trade deadline approached in 2011, Peter Chiarelli was on the lookout for veteran help. He wanted a two-way forward with enough utility to play special teams, win faceoffs and chip in a little offensively. Boston also needed a power-play quarterback and the back of the defensive depth chart was leaking. Further, the Bruins needed someone to ignite the offense and get the bottom 6F’s headed in a good direction.

  • On February 15, two weeks before the deadline, he dealt his 2011 second-round pick to the Ottawa Senators for C-L Chris Kelly. Kelly was 30 at that time and had been playing well in Ottawa. The pick ended up being Shane Prince.
  • On February 18, Chiarelli traded PF Blake Wheeler and defender Mark Stuart to the Atlanta Thrashers for F Rich Peverley and D Boris Valabik. It was a stunning trade, Wheeler was a productive player whose only crime was a subpar offensive season.
  • On February 18, Boston dealt Joe Colborne, their 2011 first-round pick (Rickard Rakell) and a conditional 2012 pick (second round, Mike Winther) to the Toronto Maple Leafs for D Tomas Kaberle.
  • On February 26, Boston signed D Shane Hnidy. He had been recovering from rotator cuff surgery, one of the reasons for such a late signing.
  • On February 28, the club dealt the rights to Mikko Lehtonen and D Jeff Penner to the Minnesota Wild for G Anton Khudobin.

Boston won the Stanley. Peter Chiarelli gave up an enormous amount of talent in acquiring very specific things. The first-round pick and two seconds could not help him win the 2011 Stanley, Wheeler had been in a long slump, Joe Colborne wasn’t enough. Chiarelli dropped gigantic amounts of gold, Boston won the Stanley.

WHAT TO DO WITH THE MONEY

The Edmonton Oilers have money and will have enough to add a substantial piece in the days after signing Leon Draisaitl. Chiarelli is in good shape for an offer sheet for Leon and could come out of that negotiation with $5 million+ to spend on a player(s) before opening night.

  • I would like to see an additional RHD (Cody Franson), a C-L who can slide in to replace Benoit Pouliot and offer insurance against Ryan Strome struggling. If that player can kill penalties, it will be encouraging.
  • If we apply the lessons learned above from the 2011 deadline, the roster is going to get a haircut at the deadline. Players moving out might be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Anton Slepyshev and Mark Fayne, depending on who performs well.
  • I think the Oilers will hold on to Jesse Puljujarvi and the 2018 first-round pick but you never know. Beyond that, if PC thinks he can win the Cup, expect major moves. I can’t see any other reason why Edmonton would hold back their water today and wait for another time.
  • The only way to avoid it? I would think Puljujarvi, Slepyshev and Caggiula emerging as 15-goal options would be enough. If you assume the top line (as above) is likely to score 82 goals (the trio delivered 86 last year), then the 2 and 3 lines would need to produce 96 goals (92 a year ago) to approach last year’s total.
  • Can Lucic-Nuge-Slepyshev score 50? Can Caggiula-Strome-Puljujarvi? I think we’ll see a trade at the deadline if Edmonton continues to ignore the lack of proven offense on the wings.
  • Don’t sleep on Kailer Yamamoto. I think there’s a chance he makes this team, at least for the first nine games. If I’m right about his offense being superior to Jesse Puljujarvi’s, then a look in pre-season may allow Yamamoto the chance to showcase his skills. I am not arguing in favor (or against) but do believe it’s a real possibility.

BILLY MOORES CUP

You can’t tell much from a highlight reel, but the Oilers most recent draft was impressive in Jasper last night in the Billy Moores Cup. Stuart Skinner drew good reviews, Kirill Maksimov showed good hands in scoring a hat-trick, and both Kailer Yamamoto and Ostap Safin scored twice. Encouraging results for an organization that is in dire need of scoring wingers.

The arbitration process this summer is a little off. Leon Draisaitl’s contract negotiations could stretch out to August and beyond, Joey Laleggia filed and Dillon Simpson did not file. Bogdan Yakimov is not a roster player, although Edmonton retains his rights. I have both minor leaguers as early callup options for 2017-18, still a little nonplussed about the Laleggia filing.

WHAT ABOUT NEXT YEAR’S FREE AGENTS?

A lot of talk about cap hell coming next year for Peter Chiarelli but I don’t see it that way. This season will be a lot about moving parts and next summer probably brings some goodbyes. Let’s have a look at the projected free agents.

  • Patrick Maroon, UFA. I think it’ll be a quick negotiation either way. If Maroon scores 27 again, he will have earned a handsome raise. Suspect Edmonton will make an offer well below market value and Maroon will sign elsewhere. This is going to be a theme among McDavid wingers for the next decade.
  • Mark Letestu, UFA. He was the No. 2 playoff scorer this spring and brings lots of utility. He is also 32, so PC will need to be aware of erosion. Suspect Letestu gets a two-year deal.
  • Mark Fayne, UFA. He will not receive an offer.
  • Matt Benning, RFA. Too soon to know, but he may emerge as the most valuable signing next summer. Could $4 million times five get it done? If he repeats his rookie season, getting a long-term deal in place will be a big priority. Has a chance to become the new Dan Boyle in Todd McLellan’s scheme.
  • Darnell Nurse, RFA. A lock to sign long term, the question here is cap. I’ve heard intelligent people suggest $2.5 million times whatever, but doubt that gets it done. This may end up being the most interesting negotiation of the year.
  • Ryan Strome, RFA. If he delivers a strong season, Strome gets signed long-term next summer. The cap hit will probably be mid-level ($4 million?) but he has a chance to be part of the cluster if things break right.
  • Anton Slepyshev, RFA. Anything could happen here, from a trade to long-term deal. Slepyshev is in a good spot but will need to deliver quickly, as the organization will be more patient with Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • Drake Caggiula, RFA. A Chiarelli signing, I expect the second contract gets signed quickly and without fanfare. He plays a physical style and may cash more in year two (had tons of chances). Outside chance he emerges as 97’s scoring winger, hopefully they sign him before that happens.
  • Laurent Brossoit, RFA. His current season will tell us a lot and the range of possibilities is large. He could get a multi-year deal or lose the backup job, or could get thrust into a starting role due to injury. Could also lose ground due to the emergence of another goalie in the system.
  • Iiro Pakarinen, RFA. A fringe winger, tough to say how things roll out. Pitlick’s exit gets him in a better spot to make the team and he does have some scoring ability. If he plays well in a support role, expect the Oilers to bring him back again.

THOUGHTS ON MCDAVID

Yesterday’s signing means the Edmonton Oilers will be Stanley Cup contenders from now through the middle of the 2020’s, possibly beyond. Important to make good personnel decisions and be strong in procurement, but 97’s presence gives the Oilers a fantastic edge. Yesterday’s news was a massive step for an organization trying to go from perennial loser to Stanley Cup champion. No negotiation this century could have had the same impact.

Speeds over at The Hockey Symposium has a post up that mentions the McDavid contract but focuses on the anticipated deal for Leon Draisaitl. Well worth the read (the first of three by speeds).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning with plenty of Oilers chatter. We get underway at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. McDavid contract, what happens if Yamamoto shoots the moon in training camp?
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report. Scouting reports on Brian Ferlin (former Bruins prospect) as well as recent draft picks Skyler Brind’Amour and Phillip Kemp.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL Week Three, McDavid deal and what it means to the Oilers, plus the impact on men like Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes from now!

 

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Jaxon

Gross misconduct,

You can say $3.5M for Maroon, but if you look at players who are getting a contract after scoring 27 goals, they usually get in the $5M – $5.5M range. Maroon’s going to get paid. And he may take less to go home to St Louis where his kid lives. It’s not like St Louis won’t be a contender, especially if they add Maroon on a discount. They still have great D with Pietrbngelo, Bouwmeester, Parayko and Gunnarsson. They have a solid core forward group with Tarasenko, Stastny, Schwartz, Steen, Berglund, Schenn, Sobotka, etc.

Gross misconduct

Jaxon</s
Jaxon,

To quote the banker in that tv ad for a financial company after the woman runs through her fees for service charges ” Well im not sure that math makes any sense “

Gross misconduct

OriginalPouzar,

3.5 $ for Maroon as long as he looks like he’s going to continue to click with Mcdavid…or whoever might b reasonable. If the term is reasonable. Its not just going to b Mcdavid, Leon, 4 mil dollar dmen , Elc players and a bunch of guys making 1 mil.

Jaxon

Chris:
I don’t thinkthere is any reason to panic with regards to the cap next season. Presuming a 77 million dollar cap, we have $24 million in cap space. Assuming we sign Leon for 7.5 we have $16.5 million in cap space which should be sufficient to give Maroon 4.5 to 5, Letestu 2, Benning and Nurse up to 3 million each and resign other RFAs. Admittedly they will be tight to the cap but it doesn’t appear there is reason to panic.

That Lucic contract just looks horrible every time I see it sitting on any graph showing the Oilers cap though.

Here is a CapFriendly Amrchair GM team using some of Lowetide’s numbers and some of my own. I have Draisaitl at $8.5M. The extra million won’t actually change that much. you could trade Nugent-Hopkins for picks and prospects instead of players like Gudas, Gudbranson, Gallagher or Jenner, and then you could sign Maroon, but I think a return like that makes more sense for the team than keeping Maroon. Plus, I’m betting Maroon signs with St Louis on the cheap next contract.

https://capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/408208

To get under cap, I had to trade Nuge and let Nurse go. Maroon, Letestu, Fayne were not re-signed. The I filled the roster with ELCs and AHL players. 12 players with under 1 season of experience (today) and only $10,000 cap space left.

Chris

I don’t think there is any reason to panic with regards to the cap next season. Presuming a 77 million dollar cap, we have $24 million in cap space. Assuming we sign Leon for 7.5 we have $16.5 million in cap space which should be sufficient to give Maroon 4.5 to 5, Letestu 2, Benning and Nurse up to 3 million each and resign other RFAs. Admittedly they will be tight to the cap but it doesn’t appear there is reason to panic.

That Lucic contract just looks horrible every time I see it sitting on any graph showing the Oilers cap though.

Ryan

magneto: Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

Daley 3×3.166m
Hunwick 3×2.25m
Kulikov 3×4.333m

That would have been Russell’s range

No doubt that Chiarelli signed Russell to a terrible contract.

Chiarelli will look foolish for signing this deal possibly as soon as next season.

seanjohn667

can Lucic, Nuge, and Slep score 50? not with Nuge as the C. He’s just not good enough.

Jaxon

magneto: Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

Daley 3×3.166m
Hunwick 3×2.25m
Kulikov 3×4.333m

That would have been Russell’s range

Of all the UFA D, Russell got the 2nd longest deal, 4th highest salary, 1st most restrictive NMC.
If he wanted to play in Edmonton, Chiarelli didn’t have to give him all of that. He wouldn’t have been the top D on the market.

Clauses:
Trevor Daley 3yr @$3.166M, no clauses.
Matt Hunwick 3yr @$2.25M, no clauses.
Dmitry Kulikov 3yr @4.333M, has a modified NTC on day 1, no trade list of 6 teams, meaning the GM can deal with 24 teams!

I would add:
Ron Hainsey 2yr @$3M , 16 team Mod. NTC. for both years.
Matt Hunwick 3yrs @$2.25M, no clauses.
Kyle Quincey 1yr @$1.25M, no clauses
Michael Del Zotto 2yrs @$3M, no clauses

Yup, and the two that signed for 4 or more didn’t have a restrictive full NMC in their first 2 years.

Shattenkirk 4 years @ 6.65M with – has a NMC for 2017-2018, but on July 1st, 2018 he submits a 10 team no trade list meaning there’ll be 20 options for the GM to trade him to.

Alzner 5 years @ 4.625M – has a modified NTC for the entirety of his contract that he only submits 8 no trade team list, meaning there’ll be 22 options for the GM to trade him to. He could even trade him today.

Plus, Markov, Beauchemin, Wideman, Oduya, Campbell, Franson, and Strait are all still available. And they may very well take a 1 or 2 year deal without full NTC or NMC from day one at less than $4M

There are almost always free agent D still looking for a job in September. There is no need to rush. Last season…..hmmmm… I can’t remember who it was… oh right, it was Russell who still wasn’t signed until OCTOBER 7th!

In 2016 James Wisniewski, Kyle Qincey, Dennis Seidenberg were all still unsigned on Sept. 26th.
The year before, in 2015, Cody Franson wasn’t signed until September 10th. Marek Zidlicky and David Schlemko weren’t signed until after training camps started either.
In 2014, Michael Del Zotto wasn’t signed until Aug 14.

EDIT:
Alex Emelin only cost a 3rd round pick for his last year @ $4.1M and a 10 team no trade list, can be dealt to 20 teams.
David Schlemko only cost a 5th round pick for 3 years @$2.1M an no clauses.
Trevor Van Riemsdyk came with a 7th round pick and cost a 2nd round pick for 1 yr @ 825k and no clauses.

N64

classict: The Oilers would obviously just match that offer sheet.

If it was a signed offer sheet of course they match it. Only one first so suicide not to.

But I have not signed it yet. Actually I left you a choice. Challenge me to sign it or come to terms for say 8.5M over 8. Connor tells me he left .75M for that.

Go ahead. Challenge me to turn my small samples into large samples. If 7.8 buys a year and you won’t give 8.5 for 8, then next year it’s 9 for a year and 8 digits for 8 years.

Here’s the knife. It’s your nose.

classict

N64: OK GM. I’ve got an offer sheet for 7.8M for 1 year. Whether I sign it or not depends on your next move.

If I sign it I’ll be an RFA again in a year and I’ll make sure the price for a deal is much much higher wherever I play.

If you don’t match you get a 1st and chump change (2nd and 3rd). Apropos if you prefer to change chumps.

Now about that extra .75M Connor left on the table for a long term deal with me?

Do I sign the OS? Your call.

That was his point. The Oilers would obviously just match that offer sheet. That potentially works out better if the Oilers want another year to prove worth. And to prove he can play C without Connor. It’s perfect for them.

I’d say in that situation it’s unlikely he does anything next year that makes the next deal much much higher. Some of the reported asks are conceivably as high as he should be getting if he repeated last years performance again for the next 3 years.

N64

Gross misconduct: Their wont b an offer sheet. No team wants to give up 4 1st round picks. And it’s just going to allienate you with other GMs. Not to mention even if their was an offer sheet coming …the Oilers can match ANYTHING that could realistically b offered.

OK GM. I’ve got an offer sheet for 7.8M for 1 year. Whether I sign it or not depends on your next move.

If I sign it I’ll be an RFA again in a year and I’ll make sure the price for a deal is much much higher wherever I play.

If you don’t match you get a 1st and chump change (2nd and 3rd). Apropos if you prefer to change chumps.

Now about that extra .75M Connor left on the table for a long term deal with me?

Do I sign the OS? Your call.

McNuge93

Lowetide: You can’t trade first-round picks in October and get value. Match, run the year with Leon at $9 million and trade Draisaitl next summer forvalue then. May still be only picks, but at least you have free agency and $9 million to spend straight ahead. Winning this coming season is a big deal, need Leon help do it.

Yes 3 first Round picks isn’t what we need. They may not turn out to be much. We traded gretz for I think 3 first rounders and seem to recall we really didnt get equivalent value back. You are right, we are in win soon mode, not rebuild 4.0 mode

Ari

Todd Macallan,

Which site?

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: It looks like the team will have a ton of cap space at the deadline (even without Sekera LTIR room) but the problem is the success of the next few years requires a steady stream of young ELC or cheap 2nd contract players to replace the top 6 forwards that we cannot afford to pay any more.

There is no room for raises for the likes of Maroon – next year he will need to be replaced by another $2M or under player, rinse and repeat.

How are we to keep this value contract stream flowing if we are renting at the deadline?

Its an honest question.

I don’t think there will be any cap relief from Sekera. It only allows a team at the cap to deduct the amount they are over the cap from his salary. So it’s a choice between one D or F. Given the youth up front I expect a forward, the D corp will be the same as last season.

The Oilers are at the point where the roster moving forward is mostly set. We could see players coming that are available for later round picks, firsts and seconds are the most important.

Edit: trades for low picks at the deadline

OriginalPouzar

Gross misconduct:
Two words for anyone expecting big name roster moves: Trade deadline

It looks like the team will have a ton of cap space at the deadline (even without Sekera LTIR room) but the problem is the success of the next few years requires a steady stream of young ELC or cheap 2nd contract players to replace the top 6 forwards that we cannot afford to pay any more.

There is no room for raises for the likes of Maroon – next year he will need to be replaced by another $2M or under player, rinse and repeat.

How are we to keep this value contract stream flowing if we are renting at the deadline?

Its an honest question.

Bruce McCurdy

Todd Macallan:
A poster on that other site who is famous for actually having a legit source in the org (believe he has 100% success rate with predictions, or close to it) just now posted “JJ (smiling emoji).”

Jokinen or Jagr? I would be very happy with either.

Jujhar Khaira?

Bruce McCurdy

Ducey: Say hello back. But tell him he is too expensive ($4.65 x 5) and plays the wrong side to be of use in Edmonton.

Besides, Oilers already have Kris Russell for a shorter term AND lower cap hit. Seems like a bargain now, huh? 🙂

Gayfish

Lowetide: I choose Draisaitl.

Even at 9 million? What if he is a 9 million 60 pt center? Three firsts and 9 million go a long way.

Gross misconduct

Two words for anyone expecting big name roster moves: Trade deadline

Gross misconduct

Their wont b an offer sheet. No team wants to give up 4 1st round picks. And it’s just going to allienate you with other GMs. Not to mention even if their was an offer sheet coming …the Oilers can match ANYTHING that could realistically b offered. That said in RE. to the supporting cast that is/will b built around Mcdavid , Draisatl. ..dont go falling in love with veteran wingers that play with Mcdavid and score 25+ goals. There are a number of NHL vets that would pot 25+ with Connor. Expect a bit of a revolving door outside of home grown ( drafted) wingers

Professor Q

Lowetide: I choose Draisaitl.

Ah, so this is what you mean by always keeping your powder Drai, eh?

Todd Macallan

Ducey,

I’ll raise you Jack Johnson. Or maybe JJ Hebert got a promotion.

Ducey

Todd Macallan:
A poster on that other site who is famous for actually having a legit source in the org (believe he has 100% success rate with predictions, or close to it) just now posted “JJ (smiling emoji).”

Jokinen or Jagr? I would be very happy with either.

or Jyrki Jokipakka. Still happy?

Professor Q

Todd Macallan:
A poster on that other site who is famous for actually having a legit source in the org (believe he has 100% success rate with predictions, or close to it) just now posted “JJ (smiling emoji).”

Jokinen or Jagr? I would be very happy with either.

Both? Khaira? Joensuu?

Ducey

Bruce McCurdy:
Karl Alzner says hi.

Say hello back. But tell him he is too expensive ($4.65 x 5) and plays the wrong side to be of use in Edmonton.

Chachi

Bruce McCurdy: If his positioning is so terrible why is he always in the shooting lanes?

He is lucky ALL the time?

Professor Q

Ducey,

I meant 4. Sorry for the mix up.

And the tone really should have already been set by Tarasenko and Kuznetzov et al.

If Draisaitl gets only a wee bit more than Tarasenko that’s fine, and I think it settles between $7-8.5 maybe.

Todd Macallan

A poster on that other site who is famous for actually having a legit source in the org (believe he has 100% success rate with predictions, or close to it) just now posted “JJ (smiling emoji).”

Jokinen or Jagr? I would be very happy with either.

Ducey

Professor Q: If it’s 2 Firsts, a 2nd, and a 3rd, we should have signed him at that number anyway.

If it’s 3 Firsts, we shouldn’t have let negotiations go that far anyway ($9.85+). Get him at $8 to $8.75 for 8 years and I do think you’re laughing.

I honestly believe that he is this generation’s version of German Mats Sundin. I have since he was in the WHL.

If its $9.8+ its 4 first rounders. There is no compensation that provides for 3 first rounders.

If someone offers more that $9.8 you don’t match and then use the picks to trade for someone else (or a couple of players)..

I am interested to see what happens with Johanssen. He held out after his ELC and then took a three year bridge deal at a then pretty exorbitant $4 M per. They then traded him a year later. His agent also had Turris who had a contract holdout and got traded. I expect that one could get pretty nasty as Nashville is historically kinda cheap.

That contract could set the tone for Leon.

Bruce McCurdy

magneto: Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

Daley 3×3.166m
Hunwick 3×2.25m
Kulikov 3×4.333m

That would have been Russell’s range

Ducey: Don’t think so

Daley, a lefty, is 33 (soon 34).
Hunwick is 32, a lefty, and the definition of 3rd pairing
Kulikov is 26 but only played 43 games last year because of reoccurring back injuries (we know those don’t go away)

I don’t think anybody would have been happy had Chia brought one of those guys in instead of Russell.

Russell is 30 and played second pairing, RHD.

Karl Alzner says hi.

digger50

Comment on Leon’s shooting percentage. I doubt it ever regresses to the mean. Certainly should come down but I doubt he drops below 15%.

He always looks for the pass, and rarely shoots without purpose. He takes the shot if he has better than reasonable chance, or he makes the pass. Put him with some crappy wingers, likely his shooting percentage will decline, but with skill I think we see it up there 15-18%.

Professor Q

Thinker: The teams that can afford the hit are bad. Those are valuable trade chips. You can get Hamonics with that currency.

I really do not want to trade Draisaitl for Hamonic.

Gayfish

Lowetide: I think the build is over. Time to rise.

The teams that can afford the hit are bad. Those are valuable trade chips. You can get Hamonics with that currency.

Professor Q

Thinker:
If a team is willing to do 3 or 4 firsts for Draisaitl, that probably gives us the flexiblity to replace him.

If it’s 2 Firsts, a 2nd, and a 3rd, we should have signed him at that number anyway.

If it’s 3 Firsts, we shouldn’t have let negotiations go that far anyway ($9.85+). Get him at $8 to $8.75 for 8 years and I do think you’re laughing.

I honestly believe that he is this generation’s version of German Mats Sundin. I have since he was in the WHL.

Ducey

magneto: Only 2 UFA D have signed for 4 or more years, what are the chances someone would have offered Russell 4 years?

Daley 3×3.166m
Hunwick 3×2.25m
Kulikov 3×4.333m

That would have been Russell’s range

Don’t think so

Daley, a lefty, is 33 (soon 34).
Hunwick is 32, a lefty, and the definition of 3rd pairing
Kulikov is 26 but only played 43 games last year because of reoccurring back injuries (we know those don’t go away)

I don’t think anybody would have been happy had Chia brought one of those guys in instead of Russell.

Russell is 30 and played second pairing, RHD.

Bruce McCurdy

Thinker:
If a team is willing to do 3 or 4 firsts for Draisaitl, that probably gives us the flexiblity to replace him.

Yeah why bother with a 21-year-old Top Ten scorer when we can get a few more magic beans?

Bruce McCurdy

LMHF#1: Would it be utterly crazy to suggest that the reason Russell needs to block so many pucks is because he’s a bad defender period and his turnovers/positioning/lack of coverage lead to desperation blocks?
That would seem to match both eye and numbers.

If his positioning is so terrible why is he always in the shooting lanes?

Gayfish

If a team is willing to do 3 or 4 firsts for Draisaitl, that probably gives us the flexiblity to replace him.

flea

The issue with bridging Leon is the threat of an offer sheet. LD and his agent are probably already sitting on offer sheets and using them as leverage. I doubt he’d sign a bridge with the Oilers if he could get a 7 year deal elsewhere.

If you had two options – get paid 2 years at 7.5 million and maybe make more on your next contract if you don’t regress, get hurt, etc or get $64M guarenteed this early in your cereer?

It’s an easy choice for the player, you take the money. There is some team loyalty at play but I’m sure it goes both ways – if LD is getting the big offers from other teams, he’ll expect them from the Oilers too.

classict

Bank Shot,

Ha missed this before I posted, well said.

classict

godot10: If you wait till Draisaitl proves its conclusively, there is no way you get him for $8.5.If Draisaitl had already proved it conclusively, one wouldn’t have the opportunity to sign him at $8.5.Draisaitl at $8.5 milliion for 8 years is a far better and safer bet than Lucic at 7 x $6 million and Russell at 4 x $4 million, where you are paying for what they did in the past, and are extremely unlikely to do in the
future.

Anaheim is the Oilers main foe in the Pacific.Draisaitl is a duck destroyer.Was in the regular season at centre and wing, and was in the playoffs at centre.He is your matchup guy on Getzlaf.

Draisaitl (fortunately and unfortunately) started to go supernova too soon.

If I’m a GM, I want McDavid and Draisaitl locked in at $21 million for the foreseeable future, and then my cap management problems because more straightforward.My most important assets become fixed cost assets.

Did he go supernova or did he shoot 27% which he’ll never sustain over a long period of time. I think Drai will get better, but I also think that he’s likely to regress down to 10-12sh%. So more than likely his scoring will go down not up. It happens all the time with young players. Especially so if he starts to play center full time with lesser line mates.

You wait because you don’t know he will prove it conclusively. Whether or not you think he should be paid now probably depends on if you think he will repeat this season again. fwiw I don’t think he will score over 80 in the next 2-3 years, so I lean towards offering a bridge.

Material Elvis

Bank Shot:
Draisaitl- 17% shooting percentage regular season.

Playoffs-27%

PP production- 6.83 p/60. Best on the Oilers. 12th in the NHL. Last year he scored 3 p/60.

These are red flags for me on Draisaitl.

His shooting percentage is likely to drop.

Likely his PP production will drop as well. Guys like Crosby and Malkin don’t hit 6.83 every season.
We already went through this with RNH as the PP witch.

For these reasons, I think if I were the general manager, I would try to bridge, or take the lowest number of years possible in order to get that cap hit down.

Draisaitl isn’t likely to repeat this season IMO. If he does, great, pay the man. I’d just like to see it happen again before locking him up into something there will be no getting out of.

Solid post. A bridge deal if Leon wants more than Tarasenko. I would prefer to lock him up to an eight year deal because I believe in his ability; however, his track record is not established and the Oilers are taking too much risk on an 8+M AAV deal at this point.

blainer

rickithebear: Nurse is the complete opposite of an efficient Def Dman.
He skates the puck up allowing opps to spread across N. Zone.
the d can pressure the blue and for ce him to the perimeter.
a lot of failed deep entries with minimal success G or A.
with opposition attacking.
he can skate back fast but is still usually trailing the opposition forward.
allowing HD penetration.
As a result his EVGA60 is historically awful.
and usually drags his partners results down.

Nurse:
w/ Sekera 2.91 EVGA60
w/ Gryba 1.88
w/ j. Schultz 2.96
w/ Benning 2.44
w/ Clandenning 2.59
w/ fayne 3.03
———————————- less than 150 EVTOI
w/ Larsson 3.77
w/ Davidson 4.60

I really like Nurse and how hard he hits and hope he comes to camp ready to make the next step.

I really believe the Oil are high on this player but there will be fierce competition when Sekera returns and I do expect us to sign a vet D over the summer or just before camp opens.

Hoping to see a very steady pairing of Nurse and Larsson by game 20. Expecting Nurse to fall in your favorable Box protection stats by then and also for those two to be Duck and Flame killers !!

admiralmark

godot10: If you wait till Draisaitl proves its conclusively, there is no way you get him for $8.5.If Draisaitl had already proved it conclusively, one wouldn’t have the opportunity to sign him at $8.5.Draisaitl at $8.5 milliion for 8 years is a far better and safer bet than Lucic at 7 x $6 million and Russell at 4 x $4 million, where you are paying for what they did in the past, and are extremely unlikely to do in the
future.

Anaheim is the Oilers main foe in the Pacific.Draisaitl is a duck destroyer.Was in the regular season at centre and wing, and was in the playoffs at centre.He is your matchup guy on Getzlaf.

Draisaitl (fortunately and unfortunately) started to go supernova too soon.

If I’m a GM, I want McDavid and Draisaitl locked in at $21 million for the foreseeable future, and then my cap management problems because more straightforward.My most important assets become fixed cost assets.

I mostly agree I just think they have a good argument to get him for less. But at the end of the day if the seasons about to start and the negotiations are ongoing then I wouldn’t haggle over $1 Mill/yr. Until then I would play hardball.

Gayfish

Just bridge him. His season is pretty similar to Eberle’s 76pt/78gm campaign, except he played with a better player. He is likely to regress, and should be cheaper a year from now.

leadfarmer

Jaxon: What about the statistical evidence that he is a drag on the numbers of the best player in the world?. Meaning he is not helping at getting the pick to the right spots for Mc David to get scoring opportunities. That’s a pretty big deal, too, no?

Well in fairness there is statistical evidence that all mortals are a drag on McDavids numbers