TARGETS

by Lowetide

When he arrived in Edmonton, Todd McLellan spent about five seconds finding a way to endear himself:

  • Todd McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”

Man, that’s a quote. Incredible. Written without the nicknames, McLellan in fact says “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to volume shooting or volume shooting because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important.” 

I think that borders on genius. Do your due diligence, find out what came before, announce your intentions. Throw some unpopular buzz words out from the previous regime, imply that it’s poppycock, and you’re good to go. Damned brilliant, every word.

SHOTS PER 60 BAKERSFIELD

Eric Rodgers and his TOI estimates are golden (this is in all game situations) and we get an idea about how Condors prospects performed a year ago. Amazing to see Russell get 150 shots but the man scored eight goals.

Jesse Puljujarvi looks good and Anton Slepyshev posted a good number, too. The Laleggia number is just from January and the last 39 games of the season (he moved up to LW). Fairly obvious there are two solid prospects here, let’s check out the NHL numbers.

SHOTS PER 60 NHL

I’m a little surprised the two centers are at the top, that’s interesting. The men in grey are the group who will play RW this coming year, with Puljujarvi showing up at the top of the list. Slepyshev second. Interesting. I do think Strome is going to get a full shot, he was at 8.61 in 2014-15. I also believe (based on current roster) the Oilers are going to devote this season to Jesse Puljuarvi. He appears to be a volume shooter but scored at 11 percent (AHL) and 2.4 percent (NHL) this past season. If JP scored at 10 percent a year ago, he would have had four goals in 28 games. Bad luck? Or is his shot less than average? We will find out this season.

EBERLE

I received an email last night arguing the Eberle for Strome trade wasn’t about money. If the Oilers stand pat for the rest of summer (signing only Leon) then I do think you can make that case.

Adding Eberle and deleting Strome adds $3.5 million to the cap, meaning about $2 million in cap space assuming Leon comes in at $7.5 million. Also interesting to look at the Russell signing and the impact it may have on the contracts of Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning. That blue line could cost $24 million for the top 6D next fall.

Back to Eberle. If the trade  wasn’t a salary dump (as has been my assumption) and there is no addition beyond Leon, then we should judge this as a straight hockey trade. Fair? Why, then, was he traded?

  • Jordan Eberle had the puck on his stick, and he had time, Corey Perry bearing down with ill will on his mind. The play did not work out well for Eberle, nor the aftermath. Sometimes in life you pay in full for a mistake or lapse in judgement, and that play (or an accumulation of many such plays) probably sent Peter Chiarelli to the trade market. If you’re looking for a reason beyond cap, that’s my answer to you. Source

JUSSI, JAROMIR, JAROMIR JUSSI

JOKINEN

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.94 (9th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.36 (7th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 53.3
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 2.8
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 46.0
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 0.4 (38 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 118 shots/9.3%
  • Boxcars: 69gp, 11-17-28
  • (All numbers via Puck IQStats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)

JAGR

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.75 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.37 (6th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 54.9
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 7.4
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 51.50
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: 5.4 (34 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 181 shots/8.8%
  • Boxcars: 82gp, 16-30-46
  • (All numbers via Puck IQStats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)

The Jokinen rumor is from hfboards and a poster named ‘speedy turtle’ who has a remarkable record for being correct on these things. He posted “Jj” and then a smiley face last night, leading us into temptation. Jussi Jokinen? Jaromir Jagr? Jarius Jackson? Who knows? Doesn’t matter. Laugh all you want, we’ve run naked down main street for less.

Jagr is a long-time favorite of this blog, I have moved several years worth of posts to ‘private’ but there are several “Jagrmeister!” posts from the early years. Always loved watching him play. Jokinen has been a curio for several seasons and Oilers fans were ahead of general manager Steve Tambellini on Jokinen several years back.

Jokinen can PK, playing over 90 minutes a year ago and posting a 45.70 shots-against-per-60 with the Florida Panthers. That would have ranked No. 2 on the Oilers, behind Benoit Pouliot’s brilliant 37.63 per 60. He doesn’t play center much, or at least isn’t a regular faceoff man. I would think either man could help, would prefer the pouty brunette.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Summer, weekend ahead, lots to enjoy! Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. McDavid contract, we’ll find out how the July 1 weekend in Ottawa turned out.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN. Rob wrote an article for NHL.com called “Connor McDavid’s $100 million could lead to 1,000 points” and we will discuss.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. What is a fair number for Leon? Plus Matt’s Eskimos prediction (9-9) is looking a little wobbly.
  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. McDavid, draft, who plays RW?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday on my mind!

 

 

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Nate780:
rickithebear,

man are you ever condescending, get over yourself

Jaxon: 1. Why be so mean and condescending about things?

2. Maybe review PuckIQ.com again before making statements. I think the main premise of their site (someone correct me if I’m mistaken) and data is that competition matters. That is why they separate the stats according to different levels of competition (Elite/Middle/Gritensity). And, they use Dangerous Fenwick numbers, which is currently the best readily available shot quality metric.

3. Slow down, write in full sentences, be nice and actually explain what your incoherent abbreviations and numbers mean. You might find that people start actually listening to your rants. Don’t get angry at us when we don’t understand what you’ve written.

4. Most posters, though they disagree, maintain a certain level of respect on Lowetide. We don’t like being called names or being verbally abused. There isn’t a “cheers” or “trash it!” button. That is why most of us come here. It’s like a friendly neighbourhood pub. You can Cliff Claven or Frasier Crane all you want, just be respectful.

You guys must still be new to these parts. Don’t poke the bear!
ricki has always had his ways. I’ve never insulted him but he has come after my inferior intellect many a time (and everyone else’s too).

VOR

Scungilli slushy,

In general terms I agree with your position. By this point in an NHL player’s career we usually have the realities/parameters of the player pretty well surrounded. I think we could be out by miles on this guy.

It is really hard to evaluate a player like Ryan Strome since for most of his career in the NHL the coach clearly didn’t like him. Under Doug Weight he looked more like the player he was in Junior and the AHL. Then he broke his wrist if I remember correctly. So we have this tiny sample size that suggests he can be much more in the NHL than he has been.

I am going to try to summarize a bunch of scouting reports in a few words:

Good boots (unanimous)
Great offensive vision/creativity (unanimous)
Good at protecting the puck (nearly unanimous)
Good stick handler (nearly unanimous)
Good passer (nearly unanimous)
Good wrist shot (most)
Good eye hand coordination (most)
Battles in close to score (most)
Tips pucks in front (most)
Makes teammates better (most)
Goes to dirty areas in pursuit of puck (nearly unanimous)

This is not the player we have seen in the NHL but is the one that played in Junior and the AHL. The difference in where he has been scoring from between Junior and the NHL is considerable. In Junior he was a really talented Ryan Smyth and often scored from the crease. Now Ryan Strome is the poster boy for perimeter player.

There is the real chance for an upside surprise here.

Scungilli Slushy

digger50: This is poor news, as board battles were the element of Eberles game that was most disappointing. Lord I hope Strome can be better at winning the puck.

I think he can, I’m okay with Strome; looking forward to see him play.

My critique was that Jordan being our major trade chip in play for the summer, may have been spent on the wrong target.

There is a lot of value in scouting reports as LT says and shows us often. It shows the style of the player, and while they tweak things in the NHL, I haven’t often seen fundamental changes in style or temperament. They might take on a different role, but the player has the same tool kit.

Strome’s report that was posted here said he was good at protecting the puck (which is the essence of board play, what Drai is good at), was a good distributor, good boots, good shot. Chiarelli said he has the stick for board play to be a winger. It also said he probably wasn’t as offensive as Nuge, same draft year.

If he shows up to prove himself he should be able to become a solid two way top 6 player that isn’t going to challenge the non-Mcdavids on the team for the scoring lead, but that means he might stay affordable which is critical. A versatile good player, and those are needed on team’s that win cups and contend.

N64

striatic: The Oilers should put Jokinen, Puljujarvi and Pakarinen all on one line and call it the “Cadillac Line”, on account of it being nothing but Finns.

You know Gene would call them the Finish Line.

digger50

leadfarmer,

Thank you for the reply and the info.

I was worried we were just signing a new Landers. And recruiting depth players we hope would become as good as Pitlick.

Sounds like a lot of positive feedback on Jokinen today and I think we are all happy just to see some movement. Sounds like he could work out.

Jaxon

rickithebear: Here is the classic example of a hockey fan believing a whole team plays on the ice at the same time.

this belief is utter bull shit.
cause at Even Eberle has been PvP since 12-13
meaning they played the other teams toughest comp.

I know That Puck IQ with Its quality choice in Data says comp does not matter.
But I kind of like to measure a player with the data that does matter whenchecked at finding the best or worst.

1. Why be so mean and condescending about things?

2. Maybe review PuckIQ.com again before making statements. I think the main premise of their site (someone correct me if I’m mistaken) and data is that competition matters. That is why they separate the stats according to different levels of competition (Elite/Middle/Gritensity). And, they use Dangerous Fenwick numbers, which is currently the best readily available shot quality metric.

3. Slow down, write in full sentences, be nice and actually explain what your incoherent abbreviations and numbers mean. You might find that people start actually listening to your rants. Don’t get angry at us when we don’t understand what you’ve written.

4. Most posters, though they disagree, maintain a certain level of respect on Lowetide. We don’t like being called names or being verbally abused. There isn’t a “cheers” or “trash it!” button. That is why most of us come here. It’s like a friendly neighbourhood pub. You can Cliff Claven or Frasier Crane all you want, just be respectful.

digger50

VOR:
Bag of Pucks,

I am strongly suggesting that overall Ryan Strome is probably about equal to Eberle in terms of board battles. I would say Strome would be better at place and chase. He gets there faster, has more leverage, and is better at protecting the puck. So I would expect based on what happened under Doug Weight that Strome would have much better possession numbers and give away/take away numbers in the Oilers place and chase system than he did in the more dump and chase oriented game the Islanders played.

I’d bet on them being better than Eberle’s.

This is poor news, as board battles were the element of Eberles game that was most disappointing. Lord I hope Strome can be better at winning the puck.

I think he can, I’m okay with Strome; looking forward to see him play.

My critique was that Jordan being our major trade chip in play for the summer, may have been spent on the wrong target.

Bag of Pucks

VOR:
Bag of Pucks,

I am strongly suggesting that overall Ryan Strome is probably about equal to Eberle in terms of board battles. I would say Strome would be better at place and chase. He gets there faster, has more leverage, and is better at protecting the puck. So I would expect based on what happened under Doug Weight that Strome would have much better possession numbers and give away/take away numbers in the Oilers place and chase system than he did in the more dump and chase oriented game the Islanders played.

I’d bet on them being better than Eberle’s.

That adds huge versatility to a line if both Ws are effective at place and chase. I’m happy to hear Strome has that element to his game.

Nate780

rickithebear,

man are you ever condescending, get over yourself

VOR

Bag of Pucks,

I am strongly suggesting that overall Ryan Strome is probably about equal to Eberle in terms of board battles. I would say Strome would be better at place and chase. He gets there faster, has more leverage, and is better at protecting the puck. So I would expect based on what happened under Doug Weight that Strome would have much better possession numbers and give away/take away numbers in the Oilers place and chase system than he did in the more dump and chase oriented game the Islanders played.

I’d bet on them being better than Eberle’s.

Bag of Pucks

theres oil in virginia: Last year, Eberle had positive possession metrics and was a plus in the beloved plus-minus.

This is where context matters. He did become a more diligent backchecker under TMac. Unfortunately, much of his goal production evaporated at the same time. Given his slow boots, Jordan may be a player that needs to cheat for offense.

Bag of Pucks

Ricki, by weaker opponents, I mean the weaker teams in the standings, not the tough comp matchups.

Yegfoundation

“Jordan Eberle had the puck on his stick, and he had time, Corey Perry bearing down with ill will on his mind. The play did not work out well for Eberle, nor the aftermath. Sometimes in life you pay in full for a mistake or lapse in judgement, and that play (or an accumulation of many such plays) probably sent Peter Chiarelli to the trade market. If you’re looking for a reason beyond cap, that’s my answer to you.”

LT, are you suggesting that moving on from a player because he could not, or would not, take a hit to move the puck in the right direction is a mistake? IMO, it’s critical that all players are doing what the coach is asking of them. Team unity and commitment to a common goal. For a person who valued Mac T as a coach, i’m surprised that you don’t place a high value on players who commit to a team system. Both Hall, and now Eberle, appear to be earning a reputation throughout the league of not playing into a system. You develop a past.

The coach told us at multiple times throughout the regular season, and playoffs, that he expected more of Eberle, and the coach provided the player many opportunities to deliver.

If the leader sets clear expectations, provides the individual opportunities to meet expectations, and the individual does not do what is asked of him, then moving on from the player is the correct move in my opinion.

rickithebear

leadfarmer: Borowiecki is a pretty meh third pairing defenseman.

I have known this for years and stated it frequently.

Once again not understanding that
their are minimal shots required to save
and that the open hole shots can become much tougher with the phase of play ( rebounds)
2 on One 2 phase ( 1 rebound)
3 on 1 3rd phase ( 2 rebounds)
4 on 1 4th phase ( 3 rebounds)

the goal potential increases per phase.

Goal scoring is about targeting ability, angles and free path.
their is a balance between pressuring low and high by defence.

remember what recent successful teams in the playoffs have done.
modified their defensive approach with Dman collapsing down on Home plate (ricki,s box) and forwards collapsing to edge or just outside of my HD Box and then pressing up to the point.

Forces less open space for puck path and allows more time for goalie to set positionally and allows for greater reaction time.

you sure as fuck do not have to skate beautiful for the short attention span Ipad generation.
who are fooled by the memeorable plays rather than understanding consistency.

3 goals from flashy beat plays every 100 shots is way better than
8 Quiet goals per 100 shots from break down plays most fans do not remember.

Souray was like that.

dip shit fans remember the blow buy plays on video and called him crap.
but his reults were better per 100.

You think like Tambo and the old boys who sent down souray cause he did not toe the line.

Way to be an old boys clubber!
and
Ignore the Belichek way!

what makes you even worse is not understanding that 12 min of Even play from third pair give the tough comp pairs more room for EVGA failure.

Bag of Pucks

VOR:
Bag of Pucks,

I think you are misunderstanding, possibly even ignoring the player the Oilers got in return for Jordan Eberle.

Strome is still struggling to figure out how to play defense at the NHL level as a right wing, never mind center. It isn’t a lack of effort. It just isn’t as intuitive as the offensive side of the game where he can be very creative. So Eberle – Strome is probably a trade off on defense. Eberle is also capable of being very creative so that is a pretty equal trade.

Strome was 21st in hits on the Islanders. That is a slight trade up on Jordan Eberle who I think was 29th on the Oilers but still neither player is exactly a head hunter if you catch my drift. Eberle blocks more shots but again the difference is really immaterial. As we’ve seen above their primary point numbers are remarkably similar.

Last year Eberle’s (and think what a bad year it supposedly was for him) possession numbers were significantly better than Strome’s. Though back when he was a 50 point player Strome’s were better than Eberle’s.

Eberle’s heat map shows he shoots from much closer to the net than Strome. On the other hand Strome has a much better shot.

Their give away/take away numbers are remarkably similar.

What I am trying to say is the difference between the two players is very small. Strome is cheaper, younger, and has more upside. He is also faster which fits the Oilers game plan better.

This wasn’t about getting rid of Jordan Eberle or you wouldn’t have traded for such a similar player. It was about a smart strategic move that I think most GMs would make. Especially in a cap constrained world. You win any trade where you get younger and cheaper with the same level of talent and more speed..

I liked the trade from day one. But I worry Oilers fans will run poor Ryan Strome out of town on the next train when they realize he is in some ways even softer than Jordan Eberle.

Don’t disagree with anything you’ve said here. I’ll be the first to admit I have a better sense of what the org didn’t see in Eberle vs what they see in Strome.

The giveaway/takeaway numbers are interesting. Would you rate them about the same in terms of ability to win puck battles? Putting it bluntly, Ebs was largely useless along the wall. With the size advantage, you would hope Strome is more effective on the boards?

Woodguy v2.0

*****MORE SPAM******

I’m on OIlers Now at 1:05 to talk to Bob about Joikenen, Russell, Strome, Drai and McDavid

******END MORE SPAM**********

rickithebear

Bag of Pucks: It also didn’t help his cause that a lot of his production seemed to come against weaker opponents. That’s the kind of thing good HCs like MacLellan tend to notice

Here is the classic example of a hockey fan believing a whole team plays on the ice at the same time.

this belief is utter bull shit.
cause at Even Eberle has been PvP since 12-13
meaning they played the other teams toughest comp.

I know That Puck IQ with Its quality choice in Data says comp does not matter.
But I kind of like to measure a player with the data that does matter whenchecked at finding the best or worst.

When you take into situational Comp/TEam/ZS the goal dif can vary by as much as 58 goals in a season.

Eberle 13-14 to 15-16 avg
power Vs Power
72gm 25g 32A 57P -9;
18 EVG 21 EVA 39 EVP
7 PPG 11 PPA 18 PPP
NO PK

16-17 PvP
82gm 20G 31A 51P +3
16 EVG 21 EVA 37 EVP
4 PPG 10 PPA 14 PPP
NO PK

Jokinen 13-14 to 15-16 avg
Power vs Power
81gm 16G 38A 54P +12; PvP
12 EVG 27 EVA 39 EVP
4 PPG 10 PPA 14 PPP
PKGA60 6.38 1:57 PKTOI

16-17 T. Rowe season
69gm 11g 17A 28P -15
6 EVG 11 EVA 17 EVP
4 PPG 6 PPA 10 PPP
1 SHG 0SHA 1 SHP
PKGA 4.58 1:20 PKTOI

treevojo

theres oil in virginia: Last year, Eberle had positive possession metrics and was a plus in the beloved plus-minus.

Even the most staunch of Eberle supporters has to say Eberle had at best an unwhelming season.

Let’s not even talk about his performance in the playoffs.

I would have bet money before the playoffs that he was going to take his game to another level.

I would have won the bet but it wasn’t because of the direction I thought his game was going to go.

At least we won’t be left never knowing what Eberle wearing Oilers colours in the playoffs might have looked like.

LoDog

npanciroli:
Jaxon,

That is super interesting. Are second assists generally random?

Yes second assists can vary wildly year over year. Hall’s big year saw him have a big increase in second assists.

npanciroli

Jaxon,

That is super interesting. Are second assists generally random?

Jaxon

Lewis Grant:
Given how inexpensive veteran middle-line UFA forwards have been, NHL teams should be checking on Jussi Jokinen.

I like the Jokinen signing.Fills several boxes: some scoring, solid face-offs and PKing, helps to mentor Puljujarvi.Smart move.

But this just shows how depth wingers, guys who can put up 30-40 points a season, are available for cheap every off-season.(Vrbata is probably at the top of this class.)In other words, replacement level for one-dimensional scoring wingers (the so-called Mendoza line) is 30-40 points a season.

Eberle was well above replacement level.So far it looks like Strome is not.That’s why it was such a bad trade.The only way this trade makes sense is if Strome rises to Eberle’s scoring level (and does so only after we sign his next contract).

Eberle – Strome hockey trade
Last 3 Seasons Even Strength Primary Pts / 60:
Eberle: 1.45
Strome 1.45
Ties them for 74th in the NHL (over 800 minutes)

Professor Q

Thinker:
Is chemistry largely luck though? RNH, pou, and ebs had chem for a long time before this year. Enerle and connor had it last year. I think we put too much stock in it. Fill up a good depth chart, and let the lines shake out however.

Not to mention McDavid and Yakupov in Connor’s first year.

VOR

Bag of Pucks,

I think you are misunderstanding, possibly even ignoring the player the Oilers got in return for Jordan Eberle.

Strome is still struggling to figure out how to play defense at the NHL level as a right wing, never mind center. It isn’t a lack of effort. It just isn’t as intuitive as the offensive side of the game where he can be very creative. So Eberle – Strome is probably a trade off on defense. Eberle is also capable of being very creative so that is a pretty equal trade.

Strome was 21st in hits on the Islanders. That is a slight trade up on Jordan Eberle who I think was 29th on the Oilers but still neither player is exactly a head hunter if you catch my drift. Eberle blocks more shots but again the difference is really immaterial. As we’ve seen above their primary point numbers are remarkably similar.

Last year Eberle’s (and think what a bad year it supposedly was for him) possession numbers were significantly better than Strome’s. Though back when he was a 50 point player Strome’s were better than Eberle’s.

Eberle’s heat map shows he shoots from much closer to the net than Strome. On the other hand Strome has a much better shot.

Their give away/take away numbers are remarkably similar.

What I am trying to say is the difference between the two players is very small. Strome is cheaper, younger, and has more upside. He is also faster which fits the Oilers game plan better.

This wasn’t about getting rid of Jordan Eberle or you wouldn’t have traded for such a similar player. It was about a smart strategic move that I think most GMs would make. Especially in a cap constrained world. You win any trade where you get younger and cheaper with the same level of talent and more speed..

I liked the trade from day one. But I worry Oilers fans will run poor Ryan Strome out of town on the next train when they realize he is in some ways even softer than Jordan Eberle.

Gayfish

Is chemistry largely luck though? RNH, pou, and ebs had chem for a long time before this year. Enerle and connor had it last year. I think we put too much stock in it. Fill up a good depth chart, and let the lines shake out however.

McSorley33

WG’s Blog is a must read……outstanding.

A shooting star floats all boats..

Scungilli Slushy

Sather being in town probably told Chiarelli that he can’t win a Cup if he doesn’t have any Finns starting on the Oilers. They are necessary. Some kind of juju thing.

theres oil in virginia

Bag of Pucks: The Oilers may miss Jordan’s scoring. They won’t miss him in the other two thirds of the rink. It’s not just about what you get, it’s what you give up as well.

Last year, Eberle had positive possession metrics and was a plus in the beloved plus-minus.

striatic

Rondo:
Bob Stauffer‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer4m4 minutes ago

Bob Stauffer Retweeted Edmonton Oilers
Jokinen is regarded as one of the smartest Finnish players. Good offensively, wins draws, can PK, good in SO. Will Help mentor Puljujarvi

The Oilers should put Jokinen, Puljujarvi and Pakarinen all on one line and call it the “Cadillac Line”, on account of it being nothing but Finns.

McSorley33

Hard not to like the Jokinen signing…….

Can I be greedy and still want Jagr?

jtblack

JJS,

Eberle was never going to be part of that cluster. ” – I think Ebs was given every opportunity to be a part of this team going forward. He was slotted in at 1RW with the Future Art Ross winner. He didnt gel with McD, his shooting Lessons didnt help him and as the year went on he became less and less trusted by the Coach. If Eberle put up 35 Goals he would still be here.

“I wonder if Nuge would recover some PP points if the second unit had a designated shooter” – I think you will see JP and Strome as shooters on 1 & 2 or vice versa

Scungilli Slushy

Lewis Grant: True. That’s what we have to hope for. Otherwise, how does Strome have any more value than Vrbata?

He’s 23, a right shot centre with decent size and speed, and cheaper. He fills a hole moving forward hopefully, it’s a good bet. Vrbata is RW only, short term and pretty old, who knows when the wheels fall off.

jtblack

John Chambers,

“I won’t argue that Eberle isn’t better than Strome. He’s just nowhere near $3.5M better.” – well said

Rondo

Rob Vollman‏
@robvollmanNHL

Rob Vollman Retweeted Rob Vollman
That didn’t take long.
And yes, turned out to be another bargain, $1.1M.Rob Vollman added,
Rob Vollman @robvollmanNHL
Given how inexpensive veteran middle-line UFA forwards have been, NHL teams should be checking on Jussi Jokinen.

JJS

Lewis Grant: True.That’s what we have to hope for.Otherwise, how does Strome have any more value than Vrbata?

But you want to get more than just hope out of a trade.(After all, we just traded away the last piece of H.O.P.E.)

Using the Penguins/Hawks as a template, we need about 5-6 guys in the cluster with a revolving door of cheapish accessories.

I have never seen Strome play but imagine part of the logic is his age/potential. If he works out, he is young enough to be part of the cluster.

Vrbata is over ripe and essentially a one or two year pick up.

Eberle was never going to be part of that cluster. Nuge has a slim chance as he is still young but needs to recover some offense (wing?).

I wonder if Nuge would recover some PP points if the second unit had a designated shooter. Instead of stacking the first unit (as they will score anyhow), save the right handed one time for Nuge?

John Chambers

Lewis Grant,

If you subtract Eberle’s 2nd assists and empty-net goals, his stats line up slightly ahead of Strome’s.

If you also exclude Eberle’s last half-dozen regular season games where he scored well against Vancouver and Colorado, the comparison actually tilts in Strome’s favour.

I won’t argue that Eberle isn’t better than Strome. He’s just nowhere near $3.5M better.

leadfarmer

rickithebear:
When I first looked at My HD theory and SHot suppression Theory.

I liked to break up a theory’s portions to see what and were the general measure of a performance occurs.

One process lead me to Realize Def D measure was from CA to GA
So I looked at the release process as broken down today.

CA – FA – SA- GA
with today lacking the real process
CA – FA – SA – 0%SA -GA

so we try to capture the outliers
Best 20/40/60 and Worst 20/40/60
if data for a process has value they will capture most of the worst and best.

so looking at the process:
CA-GA should be the one that best identifies GA results;
However it may be a portion that is superior.

In order of best to worst:% of best worst player capture
Process – Top 20 % – Top 40 % – top 60 %

1. FA-GA: – 100% – 90% – 83.33%
the best at finding those to keep and those to punt.
A hint to what sucks as a measure

2. CA-GA: – 100% – 95% –62.5%
Superior at finding the top 40 but does not capture the 20 with value near the avg.

3. SA-GA: – 95% – 83.75% – 79.16%
not as superior but is the single phase portion that best identifies
THis is important to open/closed shot theory.

4. CA-SA: – 65% – 52.5% – 45%

5. FA-SA: – 60% – 51.5% – 49.16%

6. CA-FA: 60% – 53.0% – 45.0%

when I did 1 season 2 season measures.

the FA-GA of CA-GA was the best capture of Def Dmen.
and
CA-FA was the worst way to look at data for Dmen.
I have known this for years and stated this quite Frequently.

Now when we break down this data to its true form.

It is in three critical processes:
1. CA-FA slightly captures the mid40 Dmen men on each end.
2. FA – 0% SA captures the Def Dman performance.
3. you create a Shot Success data set for open hole shots based on distance.
A true Expected GA and avg Save% is created for LD and HIGH Danger shots that need saving.

2 and 3 is almost the sole measure a dman’s value.

Open and Closed shot theory.
I have known this for years!

Worst thing to use is CA-FA as the critical measure of identifying the Dmen you want!

If you want the real answers.
You wight want to lok at the shots that need to be saved by the Goalie.

a. which Dmen make it easiest for the goalie by Volume.
Russel, Edmundson, Gorges, Borowecki, Russell, Dehaan

b. Which Dmen provide the lowest Cummulative expected GA based on Open hole shots. the best HD dmen.

The analysis must be broken down by side.

Borowiecki is a pretty meh third pairing defenseman.

I have known this for years and stated it frequently.

McNuge93

Lewis Grant: True.That’s what we have to hope for.Otherwise, how does Strome have any more value than Vrbata?

But you want to get more than just hope out of a trade.(After all, we just traded away the last piece of H.O.P.E.)

Yes your right but Strome has the tools. And yes, it is turning the page on the prior rebuilds (except Nuge) but that’s probably a good thing.

leadfarmer

That explains why he didnt get traded with 50% retention. Decent show up or your out of the league depth

Lewis Grant

McNuge93: And Strome may surprise us.

True. That’s what we have to hope for. Otherwise, how does Strome have any more value than Vrbata?

But you want to get more than just hope out of a trade. (After all, we just traded away the last piece of H.O.P.E.)

McNuge93

Lewis Grant:
Given how inexpensive veteran middle-line UFA forwards have been, NHL teams should be checking on Jussi Jokinen.

I like the Jokinen signing.Fills several boxes: some scoring, solid face-offs and PKing, helps to mentor Puljujarvi.Smart move.

But this just shows how depth wingers, guys who can put up 30-40 points a season, are available for cheap every off-season.(Vrbata is probably at the top of this class.)In other words, replacement level for one-dimensional scoring wingers (the so-called Mendoza line) is 30-40 points a season.

Eberle was well above replacement level.So far it looks like Strome is not.That’s why it was such a bad trade.The only way this trade makes sense is if Strome rises to Eberle’s scoring level (and does so only after we sign his next contract).

You really have to consider Ebs $6 mil. Especially with McD and Dra going to cost around $20 mil. And Strome may surprise us. It was a necessary trade.

Scungilli Slushy

We tend to look at things in black and white here, life is rarely like that. Strome for Eberle had several facets. Cap was the main thing. Eberle was not a good fit for the Oilers anymore was the second. So they found a player who might serve in more roles and also has a more broad skill set that is young enough to hopefully develop them.

Strome was also priced far lower than he would be if he was using his talents better. Strome has decent size, speed, protects the puck, can playmake and has a good shot. Eberle has the last two things. I’m sure Chiarelli thinks he has removed cap and made the team better.

If Jokinen has any lead left in his pencil it’s a fantastic pickup in many ways, but especially his versatility, and that is a price that says he wants to have a run on an exciting team. I was on the JJ train as well years ago. JP is probably smiling wider than ever.

Despite all the consternation about most things Chiarelli does, this type of signing that is the right price for a useful player that will be a huge benefit to the prize prospect is refreshing after what we’ve been through.

Bag of Pucks

nvan97:
Bag of Pucks,

Well said. I think it also matters that he is small and unable to win enough puck battles. You have to have the speed to get in on the aggressive forecheck (which he doesn’t) or the size to win battles. Too often he was late to pressure and if he did get there quick enough he rarely was able to separate the d from the puck.

Epitome of the one dimensional player. The argument was always ‘he does the hardest thing to do.’ Unfortunately when he stopped doing that consistently, the warts in his game became real obvious. It also didn’t help his cause that a lot of his production seemed to come against weaker opponents. That’s the kind of thing good HCs like MacLellan tend to notice.

Lewis Grant

Given how inexpensive veteran middle-line UFA forwards have been, NHL teams should be checking on Jussi Jokinen.

I like the Jokinen signing. Fills several boxes: some scoring, solid face-offs and PKing, helps to mentor Puljujarvi. Smart move.

But this just shows how depth wingers, guys who can put up 30-40 points a season, are available for cheap every off-season. (Vrbata is probably at the top of this class.) In other words, replacement level for one-dimensional scoring wingers (the so-called Mendoza line) is 30-40 points a season.

Eberle was well above replacement level. So far it looks like Strome is not. That’s why it was such a bad trade. The only way this trade makes sense is if Strome rises to Eberle’s scoring level (and does so only after we sign his next contract).

nvan97

Bag of Pucks,

Well said. I think it also matters that he is small and unable to win enough puck battles. You have to have the speed to get in on the aggressive forecheck (which he doesn’t) or the size to win battles. Too often he was late to pressure and if he did get there quick enough he rarely was able to separate the d from the puck.

Bag of Pucks

John Chambers:
Now we just need to add depth at Right D.

Sign Cody Franson or trade for Colin Miller?

Timing wise, I like when they signed Russell the first time (i.e. near the end of training camp once you have a better sense of how your roster is competing). If Nurse or Benning look ready to lock down a 2nd pairing slot, you possibly buy a 3rd pairing guy OR keep your powder dry. But if they both struggle in the preseason, you set your sights higher?

I think we’re nearing the point where the game will start to slow down for Darnell and we’ll see him skating it out with more confidence.

McNuge93

Bag of Pucks: So long Benoit. Hello Jussi.

You’re right. The Benoit replacement at 1.1 + 1.3 buyout I think. Good depth signing. He’s put up some points 2 years ago so hoping last year was just a down year. He adds good experience including playoffs

jm363561

Operation Puljujarvi is Code Green.

John Chambers

Now we just need to add depth at Right D.

Sign Cody Franson or trade for Colin Miller?

Bag of Pucks

Rondo:
1.1 million Jokinen

So long Benoit. Hello Jussi.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Great post LT: so prescient re: Ebs.

– Strome + JJ @$3.6MM >>> Ebs @ $6MM

– Love the investment in Josi, for the benefit of pool-party: that’s what smart teams do