THE SEASON AHEAD

by Lowetide

It’s down to Leon. As each day passes without an offer sheet (Carolina, New Jersey, Nashville and Arizona could still do it), the Draisaitl side must come to grips with the idea that negotiation is once again necessary. Unless an offer sheet comes calling, or one side decides to move in order to close the gap in AAV ask, we are probably going to be talking about a bridge deal.

RE GP PROJECTIONS

I’m just getting started on the RE projections, it’s an interesting process that shows areas of strengths and weakness on the roster. As you see below, this team badly needs a couple of these RW’s to emerge as scorers and there’s work to do on defense.

  • The addition of Jokinen gives structure to LW, to the point we can see Caggiula possibly getting some time on RW with skill (top 2 lines).
  • Center is rock solid if the depth chart ends up looking this way and everyone stays as healthy as I’m projecting here.
  • The starboard is the issue up front, Todd McLellan will be sorely tempted to play big Leon there. Ryan Strome has a fantastic chance to win a scoring role on McDavid’s line. I bet he’s dreaming about the opportunity coming this fall and what it might mean to his career. He’s Ken Hodge 1967, right now.
  • I’ve projected the left side of the defense with Russell, seems to me Sekera is going to miss half the season and then take some time to get back to 100 percent. Klefbom and Nurse may have some injury issues this year, injuries have been part of their early pro careers.
  • On the right side, I have Larsson and Benning running most every night, and then the third pairing being a bit of a mess that includes Gryba, Fayne, Simpson and even Russell (Ryan Stanton and Caleb Jones playing LH side for a time).
  • Cam Talbot gets 60 games by my current estimate, I’ll probably change it to 65 by the time I run the actual RE.
  • Despite misgivings about RW—McLellan may spend the entire season auditioning youngsters—the balance photo is a capable RHD away from appearing.
  • It looks like Foo Fighters for RE, I’ll start with 97 probably a week from now.

ROOM TO WHEEL

One thing we can probably begin to discuss is the Nuge exit. Adding Jokinen (who can play center) gives PC a chance to make a move should a Justin Faulk or Tyson Barrie shake loose. The Russell signing complicates things moving forward, but we may see some movement anyway next summer when the Benning and Nurse renewals come into view. It may come down to asking Andrej Sekera to waive his no move or dealing Darnell Nurse in 2018.

PULJU

Jesse Puljujarvi could benefit from another 30 games in Bakersfield but the actions of management this summer suggest he’ll go into camp with a job to lose. Added to Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula, that’s three players who could play top 9F for much of the season who we really don’t know about offensively. Ryan Strome’s experience gives him a big advantage over the rest of this group. Would Jaromir Jagr help the situation? Absolutely. That said, just because all these kids have arrived at the same time doesn’t mean the Oilers can afford to make a rash decision. I honestly don’t know who is going to emerge from this group as the goal-scorer and that may mean none of them do and we’re back talking about this again summer 2018.

CURRENT 50-MAN

  • The Oilers are at 49, with two slides, meaning 47. We’re very close to the period where Peter Chiarelli will call it done, close enough for jazz.
  • I do think we might see a straggling college free agent like Teemu Kivihalme. Colorado College coach Mike Haviland: “[Kivihalme] improved defensively from year to year. He came in with offensive skills and skating, but he needed to become better defensively to be trustworthy at the next level.” Source
  • The Jokinen signing really does put this roster in a more balanced light.
  • If Edmonton doesn’t sign another mid-level defensive option in the Stanton-Simpson area of the depth chart, don’t be surprised if Caleb Jones or Ethan Bear emerge as a bona fide recall option.

CAM CONNOR

Former Oilers winger will join me this afternooon at 2:20 on SSE to discuss Dave Semenko and his passing. We’ll also spend some time looking back on Connor’s career, he was a very high pick and a power forward who had some exceptional years in the WHA.

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Gross misconduct

Dino,

I hear you. But at some point you need to get the kids playing on the everyday roster if they have accomplished pretty much everything they can at the lower levels
.

Pescador

speeds:
Quick, who did well in February last year?

Who is getting “February Stars” LT?

Ebs

speeds

Quick, who did well in February last year?

Who is getting “February Stars” LT?

doritogrande

Foo Fighters.

You sir, have made my night. A still expanding and deep catalog. I wish Schultz were still here to get “Low”.

frjohnk

Georges:
frjohnk,

You seem to think there’s more to what I’m saying than what I’m saying.

After you’ve done digging deeper (into secondary and tertiary scoring) and you come back to the surface, you’re going to find yourself in the same spot I’m pointing to: trading Hall did not hurt the Oilers 5v5 scoring in aggregate with CMD off the ice.

As for replacing Hall’s scoring, you chose his 2.76 GF60 rate away from CMD in 15-16 as the benchmark. That’s pretty high. Close to first line production. I would’ve gone with around 2.4 as a good GF60 rate for a second line.

How about instead of 15-16 we take 16-17 Hall’s 2.06 GF60 rate? Lucic was at 1.93 GF60 away from CMD in 16-17. That’s pretty close. Can we consider Hall replaced?

I used 2.76 as that is what he has averaged over his career as a the driver of a line.

Basically what you are saying is that even though Drais 2.28 GF60 away from McDavid in 16-17 is less than Halls 2.74 GF60 away from McDavid from 15-16, Halls offense is replaced by the fact that non McDavid Drai group ( two best players that year) scored at a better pace of 1.91 GF60 in 16-17 compared to the non McDavid Hall group ( two best players that year) which scored 1.25 GF60 in 15-16.

Yes, we have replaced Halls offense in aggregate but that is because the bottom of the roster through health and good GMing is better.

The bottom of the roster had to get better for us to compete for a playoff spot. So that was expected.

Replacing Halls offense in aggregate is a sign that we have improved. But not replacing Hall’s contributions as a second line driver will not put us in the elite category.

Heres the thing, take the TOI of McDavids 5 on 5 away and this is a playoff bubble team. Meaning
we need more from the “McDavid off the ice group” to be in the conversation of the elite teams.

If
McDavid is at 3.5 per hour,
our second line at 2.76 ( Halls average) which I believe Draisaitl should be able to do and the rest are around 1.9 or so, we will have replaced Halls contributions and this team should be humming along.

Scungilli Slushy

Revolved:
Scungilli Slushy,

VOR,

Thanks for the responses. It’s unfortunate, but unsurprising that none of those gents screams ability to push us to the cup. I thought of waivers, as organizations have been known not to recognize their own talent.

The 50 man limit seems to prevent us from taking a chance on a prospect, but would a Franson signing be better? My concern is that Russell should really play LHD, and our RHD quality decreases exponentially down the depth chart.

As Oiler fans we have been through a lot of bad times and poor decision making. You can’t win them all, but I think there is a competent, thoughtful approach now.

We lost to the Ducks and there was envy of their young D. But I notice generally a grass is greener mentality. Benning had a really strong season with a few wobbles. The Ducks traded Montour instead of Vatanen to the Knights, and perhaps that was about the contract.

Still I saw a lot of high level chaos from Montour and that might have been part of the Duck’s decision. I have commented before I also saw a lot of mistakes by their young blue. We lost to them because of defensive breakdowns, terrible production from theNuge line, and goalie interference not being called which was in other series.

I don’t care about the loss now, but it is important to realize the Oilers nownhave a quality defensive group. They have 9 D with NHL experience. Anaheim’s best D is Lindholm but after its developing players no better or not even as good as Edmonton.

If Getzlaf didn’t have the great run he did we would have beaten them, and they couldn’t beat the Preds.

I think the brain trust is pondering what to do, and it’s not easy as so many players are emerging at once. I’m not sure one year deal type players will do a better job than those they have as has been said and there is a cap crunch coming. Maybe Franson if he’ll do one year because of his PP ability. However now they have multiple right shooters that aren’t muffin shots.

Munny

Revolved:
Scungilli Slushy,

VOR,

Thanks for the responses. It’s unfortunate, but unsurprising that none of those gents screams ability to push us to the cup. I thought of waivers, as organizations have been known not to recognize their own talent.

The 50 man limit seems to prevent us from taking a chance on a prospect, but would a Franson signing be better? My concern is that Russell should really play LHD, and our RHD quality decreases exponentially down the depth chart.

But we know, barring any other critical injuries, that Russell will be playing the right side, whenever Sekera returns.

The LHD market is more liquid, more talented. Makes more sense to shop there.

Revolved

Scungilli Slushy,

VOR,

Thanks for the responses. It’s unfortunate, but unsurprising that none of those gents screams ability to push us to the cup. I thought of waivers, as organizations have been known not to recognize their own talent.

The 50 man limit seems to prevent us from taking a chance on a prospect, but would a Franson signing be better? My concern is that Russell should really play LHD, and our RHD quality decreases exponentially down the depth chart.

Ducey

Thinker:
I wonder how close they see Bear being. He has a similar resume to Nurse when he turned pro. Could be a factor.

7th overall vs 5th round.

Plus Nurse was entering into a pretty wide open lineup. Bear has some depth in front of him

Georges

frjohnk,

You seem to think there’s more to what I’m saying than what I’m saying.

After you’ve done digging deeper (into secondary and tertiary scoring) and you come back to the surface, you’re going to find yourself in the same spot I’m pointing to: trading Hall did not hurt the Oilers 5v5 scoring in aggregate with CMD off the ice.

As for replacing Hall’s scoring, you chose his 2.76 GF60 rate away from CMD in 15-16 as the benchmark. That’s pretty high. Close to first line production. I would’ve gone with around 2.4 as a good GF60 rate for a second line.

How about instead of 15-16 we take 16-17 Hall’s 2.06 GF60 rate? Lucic was at 1.93 GF60 away from CMD in 16-17. That’s pretty close. Can we consider Hall replaced?

Gret99zky

VOR,

The refs hate us enough without adding Wideman to the roster. Pass.

Gret99zky

Drai: Every team over-pays some of their players. The trick is to over-pay the right ones. $8MX8 is probably an overpay, but he’s the right player.

Lucic: He is a proud guy. Head of the table. I’m betting on a much better second season. He is training differently (with Terrell Owens I believe) and will likely come back a little leaner, faster. Now if he was training with Eberle this summer I’d be worried.

Pouliot: I think he was let go for reasons other than winning hockey games. That buy-out cap hit had to be worth something to Pete, Todd, or the guys in the room. Jack Eichel likes to air dirty laundry so if BP is less than 100% team guy, Jack will confirm it with a press podium pout.

Foo Fighters: Awesome! So many great tracks.

who

Thinker:
I wonder how close they see Bear being. He has a similar resume to Nurse when he turned pro. Could be a factor.

Doesn’t have near the skill set or resume. Bear had a very good junior career but is not a lock to be a regular nhl dman. I think nurse is.

Gayfish

I wonder how close they see Bear being. He has a similar resume to Nurse when he turned pro. Could be a factor.

McNuge93

misfit:
The defense got far more than just Larsson last year.They essentially added all of Larsson, Klefbom, and Russell.THREE legitimate NHL defensemen and 75% of the top 4 were added to the previous year’s roster. That’s a major overhaul.Trading Hall netted us ONE of those pieces.

What about Benning?

misfit

The defense got far more than just Larsson last year. They essentially added all of Larsson, Klefbom, and Russell. THREE legitimate NHL defensemen and 75% of the top 4 were added to the previous year’s roster. That’s a major overhaul. Trading Hall netted us ONE of those pieces.

VOR

Revolved,

I would probably rank those guys as Franson, Polak, Streit, Wideman, and then Gilbert.

If I was looking to add useful prospects I’d add Paliotta and Blujus.

Dee Dee

jeetz: JEETZ says:
July 8, 2017 at 12:49 pm
I believe the lines this year will be very fluid but will be. Constructed with the 2018-19 salary cap very much insight.
For instance, unless the oilers get desperate, we won’t see Strome with McDavid very much. The last thing the Oilers need is a massive season from Strome with his numbers propped up with mcdavid. Strome has a few contract coming after this year.

Oilers management had 10 years of that mindset, I’m so glad it’s gone. They need to put players in their best positions to succeed, not drilling holes in the boat to make sure it sinks.

Same thing in regards to McDavids linemates, besides, someone has to play with him.

VOR

Revolved,

The guys left as RD free agents (ranked by games in the NHL):

-Dennis Wideman (815)
-Mark Streit (784)
-Zybnek Michalek (784)
-Tom Gilbert (655)
-Roman Polak (634)
-Matt Greene (615)
-Cody Franson (527)
-Nate Prosser (282)
-Nate Guenin (205)
-Cody Goloubef (129)
-Michael Kostka (85)
-Mat Clark (9)
-Michael Paliotta (2)
and an honorable mention to Dylan Blujus who while he hasn’t yet played in the NHL it seems very likely he will sometime soon.

Wideman, Polak, Streit and Franson are all still mostly NHL dmen. The dark horse is Tom Gilbert who hadn’t looked good in some time but performed well above average during an extended stay with the Hersey Bears in the AHL.

Ice Sage

Foo Fighters? As David Letterman once said “I’m so glad to have them here tonight in case we run into some troublesome Foo!”
Catchy tunes but I always hear a diluted Wings-like offshoot of a real groundbreaking band. At least they’ve plied their craft while the Captain was alive 😉

Scungilli Slushy

jeetz:
I believe the lines this year will be very fluid but will be. Constructed with the 2018-19 salary cap very much insight.

For instance, unless the oilers get desperate, we won’t see Strome with McDavid very much. The last thing the Oilers need is a massive season from Strome with his numbers propped up with mcdavid. Strome has a few contract coming after this year.

The Oilers may get a #3-4 defenseman to go with Russel to keep Benning and Nurse in the bottom pairing. When sekera comes back, with everyone healthy that could even push one of them to #7. That will give us tremendous depth and controls nurse and bennings next contract as well

Also, putting RNH on mcdavids wing is a no brained as it with inflate his stats incase of trade, or it will justify his salary. I think the coaches recognize they have to try this.

Finally, in the event Draisail gets a bridge deal, we will see him starring in his own line for most of the season and make him earn every point without mcdavids help. Everyone will see his true worth good, bad or great

Maroon McD RNH
Lucic Drai Slepyshev
Jokienin Strome Puljujarvi
Khaira Letestu Kassian

Larsson Klef
TBA Russell
Nurse Benning
Gryba Sekera*

This will maximize salary negotiations, maximizes development and is a pretty impressive lineup. Of course a losing streak and/ or a bad run of injuries changes everything

They do have to watch as being seen by the players as sabotaging somebody’s offense to sign them to a cheaper contract. Kind of dirty pool if the player deserves to play up the order.

Scungilli Slushy

Revolved:
A few questions for anyone in the know:

With the cap space available, who are the RHD free agents still available besides Franson? Is there anyone worthwhile that is likely to go through waivers when training camp gets going?

Any ideas what happened to Lucic last year? Who should we put him with?

Why through waivers? They have Stanton and Fayne down there already, a new hire I think would be to make the NHL roster better.

As for Lucic, new team, struggling line mates. He is training differently, if he can drop some weight he’d be faster. In the previous 3 years his 5v5 shooting percentage averaged 14%, last year 8.4%. he should rebound a bit.

And the whole team has a solid year of the system under their belts which helps every player, others should get closer to normal stats like Nuge who was told to focus on getting his creativity back and who Lucic will likely play with at first.

Side

pocession charge: That’s a bit oversimplified. It helped, yes, but so did a great power play.I know that you won’t give any credit to Jay Woodcroft, though.

Remember when the PP didn’t click yet and people were calling for Woodcroft to be fired and were saying McLellan and Woodcrofts PP was overrated?

Good times.

Revolved

A few questions for anyone in the know:

With the cap space available, who are the RHD free agents still available besides Franson? Is there anyone worthwhile that is likely to go through waivers when training camp gets going?

Any ideas what happened to Lucic last year? Who should we put him with?

jeetz

I believe the lines this year will be very fluid but will be. Constructed with the 2018-19 salary cap very much insight.

For instance, unless the oilers get desperate, we won’t see Strome with McDavid very much. The last thing the Oilers need is a massive season from Strome with his numbers propped up with mcdavid. Strome has a few contract coming after this year.

The Oilers may get a #3-4 defenseman to go with Russel to keep Benning and Nurse in the bottom pairing. When sekera comes back, with everyone healthy that could even push one of them to #7. That will give us tremendous depth and controls nurse and bennings next contract as well

Also, putting RNH on mcdavids wing is a no brained as it with inflate his stats incase of trade, or it will justify his salary. I think the coaches recognize they have to try this.

Finally, in the event Draisail gets a bridge deal, we will see him starring in his own line for most of the season and make him earn every point without mcdavids help. Everyone will see his true worth good, bad or great

Maroon McD RNH
Lucic Drai Slepyshev
Jokienin Strome Puljujarvi
Khaira Letestu Kassian

Larsson Klef
TBA Russell
Nurse Benning
Gryba Sekera*

This will maximize salary negotiations, maximizes development and is a pretty impressive lineup. Of course a losing streak and/ or a bad run of injuries changes everything

John Chambers

“Big me” Patrick Maroon
“Wheels” Oscar Klefbom
“Breakout” Darnell Nurse

Foo’s are pretty much perfect for the Oil right abouts now

Scungilli Slushy

pocession charge:
Scungilli Slushy,

In a flat cap era, every $1M counts.Why overpay when the comparables say otherwise.Why should Leon get $2M/year more than Mark Scheifele?

I agree the all money counts, but it is far less damaging to overpay one of your best players than a more replaceable one. You and others have put a lot of effort into figuring what Drai ‘should’ get, but I think a lot of how contracts are done really comes down to current factors, things are very fluid. What a player got last year or two years ago might not factor easily into current conditions, such as Connor’s contract probably driving things up for top players. Which will drive contracts for other lesser players down because of the cap. It seems fair.

Oil2Oilers

A Cody Franson signing away from The Balance Photo!

A little monkey wrench on my radio right now.

I would trade Russell for Demerara for the same result.

Yegfoundation

Newton:
After seeing the team effect of subtract Hall and add Larson (net positive), I am very interested to see the subtract Eberle add Strome effect….not so much from on ice individual production but overall team chemistry and wins and losses.I suspect we will again see a net positive, hunch maybe but I can’t argue with Chia’s results thus far in Hall/Larsson swap.Is Nuge the final shoe to drop for that stud D and Chia truly makes this team his own?

I hope RNH can return us a stud D but I’m afraid just like with Hall and Eberle the value through the league will be lower than we desire.

im shocked the 3 kids didn’t do more once they had the support of a better roster. We didn’t miss Hall and we certainly won’t miss Eberle. I also now expect if we move RNH, even for less that exoectred, they team has a chance to improve with a better 3rd line Center.

Don’t mind me

Leon Draisaitl – Monkey Wrench

dustrock

Yamamoto is going to get “Big Me”, right?

Ducey

LT, Ariz can’t offer sheet, unless they trade back for next year’s 2nd

Scungilli Slushy

At forward they now have depth to cover injuries at centre, and in goal Broissoit’s SV% was good last year.

Again, I think they might wait and see if players step up and take a regular job. And fill in later if it doesn’t work out, but a half season seems likely.

LT has mentioned the Bruinizing of the Oilers. Chiarelli seems to like talent, speed, size (as Bruins GM he mentioned heavy or thick, not necessarily tall) and assertiveness.

That works for me as I like the same player types.

Talent: The Oilers have 10 first round draft picks including 2 1OV’s, 4 top 5 picks, 43% of the roster. Slepy was considered a first round talent in his draft year.

Speed: There are now only 4 players that aren’t considered great skaters, Lucic, Maroon, Letestu and Gryba. The first two do have straight line speed. Somebody mentioned Joki was slow, I’ve never heard that, he seems at least a competent skater. That is a big change, the Oilers are a fast team now, again.

Size: Pete likes player to have at least weight, although he has shown that ability trumps size for him. The Oilers now have only 2 players that are listed below 195 lbs on their site, Russell and Caggiula. They are a pretty heavy team again.

Assertiveness: Throughout the roster, there are no longer any players that aren’t, or might be called perimeter players. Not that they are all bangers or hit a lot, it’s more about being aggressive on the puck and taking time away from opponents. Doing something each shift. This was the knock on Slepy, he seems to be getting the message.

Fayne isn’t assertive and isn’t a good skater or puckhandler, and that is why he isn’t on the team. Although LT holds out hope!

russ99

Could it be that the Oilers like the stability Russell brings to the defense and how he makes Talbot’s workload easier and dumping Pouliot was because they couldn’t find a taker and didn’t think he was a fit anymore?

Just because you don’t agree with those moves doesn’t mean they don’t make sense.

Russell should be better on his natural left side and at worst gives us a solid replacement for Sekera.

Jokinen is a much better fit with this group and with the coaching staff than Pouliot.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Agree, but that RW might be on the roster and Benning might change the conversation. what if he IS Dan Boyle? I’d certainly have cover, one year for Franson, but nothing more because Benning could be a big contract next summer.

With 47 contracts (49 but two slides), we are getting close to the no acquisition zone if we want to keep flexibility for later.

Also, Jokinen was a fantastic veteran signing that should provide great value and is no risk. On the surface, it seems like another veteran add could help but, in addition to the overall contract number, we get to the place where we wonder which younger developing player that has essentially earned an NHL role will need to be sent down to make room – potentially subject to waivers.

Pak – I’m fine with the risk there but next up is Slep/JJ – do we want to block them? Have they earned a roster spot?

68goatcheese

So we are one “antique” UFA away from Connor playing with his dream wingers. Of course it would likely only be one shift! Lol

Professor Q

Thinker:
Drai will have to take a huge step in terms of shot volume to maintain last years offense. I would bank on him being cheaper a year from now. I don’t see a world where he is more expensive.
Did we very find out why we burned JP’s rfa year?

It must have been an agreement of some sort. There’s little chance that it was simply by chance that he was sent down almost immediately after making the mark.

Gayfish

Drai will have to take a huge step in terms of shot volume to maintain last years offense. I would bank on him being cheaper a year from now. I don’t see a world where he is more expensive.
Did we very find out why we burned JP’s rfa year?

Material Elvis

Scungilli Slushy,

In a flat cap era, every $1M counts. Why overpay when the comparables say otherwise. Why should Leon get $2M/year more than Mark Scheifele?

Scungilli Slushy

The Oilers have 9 defencemen with at least a reasonable amount of NHL experience. They do have depth for injuries, even if some are not great players. But with the cap, how man teams have good players in the PB? It is a huge difference from years gone by.

I have no inkling what Chiarelli does, but I could see them standing pat. Unless they trade Sekera, when he comes back a regular NHL D would have to sit. I suppose I don’t think that is likely from the Pete’s verbal. He seems to want to give players a chance and not block them, which is huge for confidence and moral, those strange things that weren’t around before.

Scungilli Slushy

A difference of 1 million on your second best player is not what kills the cap. If 8.5 gets Drai for 8 years you do that. If he wants over 10, then no. 8.5 is a gamble, but there is going to be salary escalation at the top of the rosters, and in 2-3 years if he keeps scoring his number will be a lot closer to McDavid’s.

Like any business, the best course of action depends on the actual numbers, and there is always at least some risk involved. And feelings, it is a very close small group of people for such a large business, and offending or losing a top young player over relatively small amounts is probably not a good decision.

GMB3

godot10:
A bridge deal for Draisaitl is not really in the Oilers best interest.He will only be unbearably more expensive two years from now.

Chiarelli took far more risk in the Lucic and Russell contracts, than he would signing Draisaitl to 8 x $8.5, especially since every #1 centre going forward is going to command $10 million, starting with McDavid, Taveres, Eichel, Matthews, Seguin, …

$8.5 million and cost certainty for McDavid and Draisaitl is the way to go.

#ThoroughlyMediocreAnalysis

who

Dino:
Still think this team is a good RW and RD away from contending for a cup.

They’re relying too much on fringe players when they could just go out and sign some proven vets this offseason. No reason both Slepy and Pulju should be penciled into your top 9 if you’re serious about competing. They have skill and could surprise us but relying on a surprise seems unwise.

I read the call for more veteran signings a lot on this blog and I just don’t agree.

The problem with signing more veterans is that the good ones cost too much to fit under the cap and the mediocre ones, while cheaper, are not going to be any better than the youngsters we have in place already.
Why not give your young players 40 games to show what they can do. Keep your powder dry for now and if you need to add you can do so before the deadline.
Having cap space to add at the deadline is a big deal!

Scungilli Slushy

dustrock:
https://www.coppernblue.com/2017/7/8/15940936/reallocating-risk-jussi-jokinen-benoit-pouliot-oilers

Might have been posted already, but Sunil with a nice point: Jokinen and Pouliot both had down years, the Oilers now betting on a bounceback from JJ at a $2.35m including the Pouliot buyout, rather than a full $4m on Pouliot.

Jokinen has been and likely is a better player, and can do a lot more as well. Although Joki downplayed the Finn side of it, I think that is likely the Oiler’s main motivation, especially as he had mentored Barkov.

Newton

After seeing the team effect of subtract Hall and add Larson (net positive), I am very interested to see the subtract Eberle add Strome effect….not so much from on ice individual production but overall team chemistry and wins and losses. I suspect we will again see a net positive, hunch maybe but I can’t argue with Chia’s results thus far in Hall/Larsson swap. Is Nuge the final shoe to drop for that stud D and Chia truly makes this team his own?

Material Elvis

godot10:
A bridge deal for Draisaitl is not really in the Oilers best interest.He will only be unbearably more expensive two years from now.

Chiarelli took far more risk in the Lucic and Russell contracts, than he would signing Draisaitl to 8 x $8.5, especially since every #1 centre going forward is going to command $10 million, starting with McDavid, Taveres, Eichel, Matthews, Seguin, …

$8.5 million and cost certainty for McDavid and Draisaitl is the way to go.

Nope. That’s $1M too much based on his comparables.

Material Elvis

godot10:
The offense improved last year because the defense improved, and was finally of NHL quality.Basically, Larsson, a healthy Klefbom, and Russell (who is an adequate 3rd pairing D) were added.

That’s a bit oversimplified. It helped, yes, but so did a great power play. I know that you won’t give any credit to Jay Woodcroft, though.

frjohnk

Georges:
frjohnk,

The point of WG’s post was to look at with and without CMD GF60 from 15-16 to 16-17.

5v5 GF60 w/o CMD

15-16 1.79
16-17 1.97

1. In 15-16, we had Hall. In 16-17, we didn’t.

2. Without CMD GF60 improved from 15-16 to 16-17.

3. Losing Hall did not hurt without CMD GF60 year over year.

Which of the 3 points is a problem?

On the surface you are correct.

But like I said before, if you dig a bit deeper, one finds that we did not replace Halls offense, but bettered the bottom 6 through better health and better GMing.

The roster without the best players ( basically bottom 6) moved from the worst in the league to average in the league. This is what I call tertiary scoring. Which means our secondary scoring took a hit.

We still rely on McDavid way too much for our offense. 46% of our offense at 5 on 5 is with him on the ice.

McDavid is looking like he will hover around 3.5 goals for per 60.
If the 2nd line driver can hit 2.75 goals for per 60, we replaced Hall.

I believe Draisaitl will do it.

Dino

Still think this team is a good RW and RD away from contending for a cup.

They’re relying too much on fringe players when they could just go out and sign some proven vets this offseason. No reason both Slepy and Pulju should be penciled into your top 9 if you’re serious about competing. They have skill and could surprise us but relying on a surprise seems unwise.