CHIARELLI’S FREE AGENTS

by Lowetide

It’s so easy to forget about the sequence of events as time marches on. On the day Peter Chiarelli took over, he had a herculean task in front of him. My first “Chiarelli’s list” went like this:

  1. Draft McDavid (and sign him)
  2. Find a quality goalie option (this is the Talbot/Lehner item)
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue (as always, clear as mud days before bullets fly)
  4. Sign a more offensive two-way F (I’m hoping for Soderberg)
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (Or trade Marincin for someone goooooood)

He did draft and sign McDavid, traded for a goalie, and signed his first Oilers free agent in order to cover off item No. 3. Here are Peter Chiarelli’s free agents as Oilers general manager:

PETER CHIARELL FREE AGENTS 2015-16

  1. July 1, 2015: Signed D Andrej Sekera. Six years, $33 million, $5.5 million AAV. The Sekera signing suggested (to me) the Oilers were now shopping down a better aisle in free agency. He was absolutely one of the best available defensemen that summer and has shown himself to be a worthy part of the key veteran cluster in his two years in Edmonton.
  2. July 1, 2015: Signed RC Mark Letestu. Three years, $5.4 million, $1.8 million AAV. Letestu called it better than anyone on the day he signed. He was a guest on TSN1260’s free agent show and told me he would play in all situations and felt he could help on the power play. He didn’t get a lot of opportunity in year one, but scored 11 with the man advantage this past season.
  3. October 6, 2015: Signed L Braden Christoffer. Three-year entry-level deal, CHL free agent. Rode a hot training camp to an NHL entry-level contract but he hasn’t been able to find the range as a pro player.
  4. March 13, 2016: Signed W Jere Sallinen. One year, $792,500 (same AAV). The Oilers have been signing outlier European players for about one decade now and the success rate is very poor. Sallinen couldn’t get much done in the AHL, never got close to Edmonton.
  5. April 7, 2016: Signed G Nick Ellis. Two year entry level, college free agent. Chiarelli was very aggressive in procuring goalies, and Ellis looks like he might have some NHL potential. His first pro season puts him on a trajectory similar to Laurent Brossoit.
  6. May 6, 2016: Signed F Drake Caggiula. Two-year entry level, college free agent. Caggiula had to deal with injury and playing out of position (I don’t think he’s a center) but by the playoffs he was using that speed to make plays in all disciplines. He may get a long look on a skill line this fall.
  7. May 9, 2016: Signed R Patrick Russell. Two-year entry level, college free agent. The least successful of the college signings of 2016, he shot the puck a lot but couldn’t score for the Condors. An improved shooting percentage seems likely this year.

I think the two major free agents from year one have proven to have impacted things in a positive way. The AAV for Sekera is dear but in full free agency, you  pay in full. For me this was a successful year in free agency. Caggiula was playing a significant role by the end of the season and could be a long-term solution in the top 9F. Ellis is an interesting prospect.

PETER CHIARELL FREE AGENTS 2016-17

  1. July 1, 2016: Signed L Milan Lucic. Seven years, $42 million ($6 million AAV). Chiarelli’s biggest free-agent signing to date, probably the biggest we’ll see during his time as Oilers general manager. Lucic is a unique player, he posted a season with expected boxcars but did not score well at 5×5 (normally an area of strength). He’ll be under a microscope this winter.
  2. July 1, 2016: Signed G Jonas Gustavsson. One year, $800,000 (same AAV). A strange signing from the beginning but a harbinger of the ‘small bet’ activity we saw July 1, 2017. Gustavsson is the least successful free agent of the Chiarelli era.
  3. July 1, 2016: Signed D Mark Fraser. One year, $575,000 (same AAV). Another depth signing, the rugged defender didn’t see the NHL during the 2016-17 season.
  4. August 27, 2016: Signed RD Matt Benning. Two-year entry level, college free agent. This may end up being the best free-agent signing of the Chiarelli era. Former Bruins draft pick when PC was in Boston, Benning was not only a perfect fit but he delivered a stunning rookie season.
  5. Oct 7, 2016 Kris Russell: One year, $3.1 million deal. A training camp invite, who signed a value deal. He was part of the solidification of the defense and in particular, part of Chiarelli’s massive overhaul of right defense. His coverage is the subject of some controversy, but Puck IQ shows him as a good defender.
  6. April 10, 2017: Signed G Shane Starrett. Two-year entry level, college free agent. Nick Ellis version 2.0? We’ll have to wait and see but the college goalie signing idea has a lot of merit. Starrett’s college numbers were excellent and he could be another plug-and-play for the Condors.

The Lucic signing doesn’t look brilliant after one year (I was in favor of the signing and remain hopeful ML has a strong season, but the first one wasn’t close to good enough). Matt Benning signing was a stroke of genius, need to get him signed to that second deal before the cost is too dear.

PETER CHIARELL FREE AGENTS 2017-18

  1. March 28, 2017: Signed LC Joe Gambardella, two-year entry-level deal, college free agent. I expect his offensive potential will limit his pro career, but I am intrigued by his forechecking ability and look forward to seeing if he can score enough to make the NHL.
  2. March 1, 2017: Signed RD Ryan Mantha. Three-year entry-level deal, CHL free agent. PC hasn’t had a lot of success so far with CHL free agents (Christoffer) but this is an area worth pursuing. Mantha has a somewhat unique skill set (Bear will be his competition) for the Oilers pro depth chart.
  3. July 1, 2017: Signed R Ty Rattie. One year, $700,000 (same AAV). This is a sneaky good signing and I wonder if we look back on the addition as being more important than it appeared on first blush. He has a $225,000 minor league salary but $275,000 is guaranteed according to CapFriendly. (All numbers via CapFriendly).
  4. July 1, 2017: Signed LD Ryan Stanton. Two years, $1.4 million ($700,000 AAV). The minor league portion is $300,000 and that suggests to me we are going to see Stanton as a recall over the next two years. The high minor-league salary should be enough to keep teams from claiming Stanton when he is moving between Bakersfield and Edmonton.
  5. July 1, 2017: Signed R Mitch Callahan. Two years, $1.4 million ($700,000 AAV). I think Callahan has a chance to play with the Oilers this coming season. His minor league salary (average) is $250,000 which is a little higher than Rattie’s. Fascinating set of contracts.
  6. July 1, 2017: Signed R Brian Ferlin. One year, $700,000 (same AAV). Chiarelli drafted him for the Bruins, Ferlin has shown promise but is coming off some significant injury issues.
  7. July 1, 2017: Signed G Edward Pasquale. One year, $700,000 (same AAV). AHL backup is my guess, he’s there in case Nick Ellis falters or is needed at the NHL level.
  8. July 1, 2017: Signed LD Keegan Lowe. One year, $650,000 (same AAV). Lowe has had a good pro career so far, don’t know where he lands on the depth chart but it could be slightly above or below Dillon Simpson.
  9. July 1, 2017: Signed LC Grayson Downing. One year, $650,000 (same AAV). There is $215,000 guaranteed at the minor league level, his AHL salary is listed as $175,000. I don’t know enough about this player to properly project him, but expect he’ll be in the minors for the entire year.
  10. July 3, 2017: Signed LC Brad Malone. Two years, $1.3 million ($650,000 AAV). Malone has landed in a very good spot, one occupied by Anton Lander one year ago. I think he may end up making the team out of training camp based on current PK options.
  11. July 7, 2017: Signed L Jussi Jokinen. One year, $1.1 million (same AAV). I don’t think it’s hyperbole to suggest there’s a chance this ends up being Chiarelli’s best NHL free-agent signing. This has a change to be a ridiculous value deal.
  12. July 10, 2017: Signed LD Yohann Auvitu. One year, $700,000 (same AAV). This is a one-way deal, so Auvitu gets the full salary no matter where he plays. I like his chances based on current roster makeup and wonder if the club makes room for him in 2018-19 if this season goes well.

A terribly unusual free-agent year so far, the Jokinen and Auvitu signings are astute and may have extreme value. I like the Rattie and Callahan signings, we’ll have to wait and see on the others.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

It’s tempting to say Peter Chiarelli’s free agents are identical to his trades: The big moves cost too much for what they bring and the smaller deals end up being the value moves. That’s not strictly speaking true, as Andrej Sekera has delivered value and we’re just one (disappointing) season into the Milan Lucic deal. Maybe the most interesting item is there are only two deals over $2 million dollars through three summers of activity.

I rank the best deal so far as being Matt Benning, with Jussi Jokinen, Sekera, Auvitu and Caggiula also showing well. The value UFA signings of summer 2017 may be the template for coming seasons, when money’s too tight to mention because of the big money contracts at the top of the depth chart.

OPENING NIGHT 2005-06

  • L1: Smyth—Horcoff—Dvorak
  • L2: Torres—Peca—Hemsky
  • L3: Moreau—Stoll—Pisani
  • L4: Harvey—Reasoner—Laraque
  • D1: Pronger—Staios
  • D2: Ulanov—Smith
  • D3: Cross—Bergeron
  • G1: Ty Conklin (Jussi Markkanen)

This is the last roster that came close to balance, the goaltending was not quality but the rest of this roster was beyond splendid. I could stare at this roster all day. ALL day.

POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT 2017-18

  • Maroon—McDavid—Nuge
  • Lucic—Drasiatil—Slepyshev
  • Jokinen—Strome—Puljujarvi
  • Caggiula—Letestu—Kassian
  • Klefbom—Russell
  • Nurse—Larsson
  • Auvitu—Benning
  • Talbot (Brossoit)

I have Nuge on RW and split up the Swedish pairing. Thoughts? This is probably my least favorite possible lineup, so book it for opening night!

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Things get a little loose in the summer, that’s when the fun begins! Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Nuge at RW? Cap for Leon and ideal pairings with Andrej Sekera on IR.
  • Jesse Spector, FanRag Sports and The Score. MLB Trade deadline.
  • Don Landry, CFL.ca. CFL Week Six on the way.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Oil Kings changing out goaltenders.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Munny

John Chambers,

Exactly why I brought up his line’s shooting percentage.

treevojo

Thinker:
I’m afraid of Lucic. Mostly because that is the face of a man who has nothing to lose by fighting.

Late to the party!

But I am sure you “think” you are very pretty?

OriginalPouzar

Bruce McCurdy:
I calculated for the league as a whole & powerplays were up from 5.97 per game (both teams) in the regular season to 6.25 in the playoffs. Some tiny fraction of the “extra” penalties would have occurred in extended overtime periods. But certainly no evidence that the refs put their whistles away to any greater extent than they did all season long.

I speak to this in my previous post and I think its a very valid point.

OriginalPouzar

jtblack:
Bruce McCurdy,

Thanks Bruce.Guess I was clearly incorrect on this. I really thought less got called.

I still put more value on 5×5.But could be pursuaded

There may have been more overall PPs/game in the playoffs but the number of infractions committed was up by a huge degree. The refs were still letting way way way way more go even though they ended up calling more PPs/game – from my eye test.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Scungilli Slushy: Nobody dismisses PP, but the game is won and lost at evens over time. 75% of goals right?

– Yup: but in 9 x as much minutes…If you don’t score a lot on the PP your in trouble

Scungilli Slushy

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– On this 5×5 vs PP stuff:

1) Of Edmonton’s 243 goals (actually 233: 10 empty netters): 56 were PP.1/4 of the goals

2) But they scored those 56 goals in 245 PP opportunities.Call it 490 mins.

3) In the other 4,430 mins approx, they scored 177 goals

4) So PPG = 6.9/60, 5×5 G = 2.40/60

5) Oil 3x as likely to score a goal on a PP than any other 2 minutes in a game

– PP goals matter a lot: they happen more frequently, you game plan for them, you can set up

– Intuitively, PP rewards talent, puck movement, passing more than 5×5.

– Goals matter: they are harder to score 5×5 for sure.But don’t dismiss the PP

– Ovechkin has scored the most PP goals over the last three years: tell me he isn’t important

Nobody dismisses PP, but the game is won and lost at evens over time. 75% of goals right?

Scungilli Slushy

Georges: I want to believe you. But I watched the Ducks series and stupid Getzlaf and stupid Kesler. Lucic lined them up a couple of times, but the Ducks never played like they were physically intimidated. Getzlaf lines got the better of Lucic lines in very important situations. If intimidation is part of the Lucic arsenal, he left it on the bench in that series. Which would’ve been fine if he could have made just one or two extra hockey plays in very important situations. 3-8 GF-GA at 5v5 in that series, including being on the ice and not making a play (with chances to make a play) on the series-winning goal.

It might not sound like it from all that, but I’m a supporter. We needed him to be better. I think he knows it. I hope he knows it…

Getzlaf turned away from Lucic several times. Getzlaf was a bully, looked to injure, and was smug beyond belief. I have no respect for him anymore.

If the Oilers had gone into that series without enough shotguns I can’t imagine what a goon show the refs would have allowed.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– On this 5×5 vs PP stuff:

1) Of Edmonton’s 243 goals (actually 233: 10 empty netters): 56 were PP. 1/4 of the goals

2) But they scored those 56 goals in 245 PP opportunities. Call it 490 mins.

3) In the other 4,430 mins approx, they scored 177 goals

4) So PPG = 6.9/60, 5×5 G = 2.40/60

5) Oil 3x as likely to score a goal on a PP than any other 2 minutes in a game

– PP goals matter a lot: they happen more frequently, you game plan for them, you can set up

– Intuitively, PP rewards talent, puck movement, passing more than 5×5.

– Goals matter: they are harder to score 5×5 for sure. But don’t dismiss the PP

– Ovechkin has scored the most PP goals over the last three years: tell me he isn’t important

Gayfish

russ99: Refs swallowed the whistles against the Ducks, and then the Ducks intimidated the refs. Had he done more, we’d be complaining about all the penalties Lucic drew.

Now that McDavid is going into his third season and the Oilers becoming legitimate contenders, we can hope that the brutal officiating we’ve seen the last 10 years finally getting closer to even.

When CFP and other outstanding citizens aren’t the key people put in charge of discipline, we might see a change.

SwedishPoster

Professor Q: The League surprisingly disagrees with you, however, hence why they’re investigating on how to take those increased uncalled infractions out of playoff hockey. They usually take the opposite stance and support the refs bar-none.

I would suggest that the sense that refs “lets everything go” during the playoffs while as Bruce has shown the number of penalties called stay about the same is simply because the number of infractions skyrocket during the playoffs but the number of calls don’t. The intensity and stakes are on a different level which obviously causes the players to test the limits of what’s allowed. Thing is a lot of fans, a lot of hockey people like the fact that playoff hockey is a bit of rough and tumble so while they/we complain about refs not calling stuff at the same time there’s a romantic view on breaking the rules during playoff hockey. I personally can’t stand the interference, hooking and holding stuff but don’t like when every little touch is called. Reffing is not an easy job, at all.

thehop

SwedishPoster,

Hump day is a real thing..

Gayfish

SwedishPoster:
Is noone working on bloody wednesdays anymore?

Not working at all. Goddamn economy.

russ99

Georges: I want to believe you. But I watched the Ducks series and stupid Getzlaf and stupid Kesler. Lucic lined them up a couple of times, but the Ducks never played like they were physically intimidated. Getzlaf lines got the better of Lucic lines in very important situations. If intimidation is part of the Lucic arsenal, he left it on the bench in that series. Which would’ve been fine if he could have made just one or two extra hockey plays in very important situations. 3-8 GF-GA at 5v5 in that series, including being on the ice and not making a play (with chances to make a play) on the series-winning goal.

It might not sound like it from all that, but I’m a supporter. We needed him to be better. I think he knows it. I hope he knows it…

Refs swallowed the whistles against the Ducks, and then the Ducks intimidated the refs. Had he done more, we’d be complaining about all the penalties Lucic drew.

Now that McDavid is going into his third season and the Oilers becoming legitimate contenders, we can hope that the brutal officiating we’ve seen the last 10 years finally getting closer to even.

Georges

Melman: While there are lots of tough customers (Gryba, Kassian) there are only a handful of “don’t even think about it” players who can also play a top role.Lucic is one, Chara also comes to mind.This is fun because it’s value – real or perceived – fits squarely in theold timey vs. analitics debate.How do you measure the extra 2 inches and 10 lbs. that Caggiula feels knowing that Looch is on the bench, allowing him to fore check that little bit more aggressively?

I want to believe you. But I watched the Ducks series and stupid Getzlaf and stupid Kesler. Lucic lined them up a couple of times, but the Ducks never played like they were physically intimidated. Getzlaf lines got the better of Lucic lines in very important situations. If intimidation is part of the Lucic arsenal, he left it on the bench in that series. Which would’ve been fine if he could have made just one or two extra hockey plays in very important situations. 3-8 GF-GA at 5v5 in that series, including being on the ice and not making a play (with chances to make a play) on the series-winning goal.

It might not sound like it from all that, but I’m a supporter. We needed him to be better. I think he knows it. I hope he knows it…

SwedishPoster

Is noone working on bloody wednesdays anymore?

Scungilli Slushy

All goals count the same. But even strength play indicates the quality of a team. Even strength is the great majority of the game.

Hot special teams can win games. But they are not usually hot over time. If your opponent doesn’t get penalties how do you score?

People have looked into it before, maybe Bruce or Woodguy remember who. Teams that go deep into playoffs are usually strong in Corsi, have league top goal diffs which both indicate quality, and at least average goaltending.

Usually good special teams but not always. I don’t know the exact number but if a team gets 4-5 PP a game that’s 50 minutes of ES play to win. In a string of games you might win only scoring PP goals, but over time that indicates weak team play and over time it wouldn’t work.

Another point is that there are penalties against, and that will basically wash the PP points for most teams, meaning the games are won outscoring at evens.

Jordan

Bruce McCurdy: Oilers had 2.99 powerplay opportunities per game in the regular season and 3.23 in the playoffs.
Oilers were shorthanded 2.72 times per game in the regular season and 3.77 in the playoffs.

The Anaheim Ducks were the most penalized team in the league during the regular season 2016-17 at 3.43 penalties per game. How much does the limited number of teams played in the playoffs and their playing style impact the penalties called Bruce?

Georges

Jethro Tull: The CMD = The Connor of Mass Destruction?

Yes, the WOWY’s.

Jethro Tull

Georges: Someone is sure to play the CMD card…

… any minute…

(perfectly valid card to play here)

The CMD = The Connor of Mass Destruction?

Scungilli Slushy

Lowetide: For me, he seemed to be almost top heavy, his wheels didn’t turn. I’m not talking speed, he seemed like a tank out there. I wonder if it is conditioning, not that he was in poor condition, but that he lost some mobility through training. He seemed to have a hard time finding the puck when it was right beside him. I hope he finds Maroon’s trainer, that guy improved a lot. Lucic is one of my favorite players, hope he can post numbers that are in line with career expectations.

I worry about his spinal disease. It did look like he couldn’t move his upper body much.

Georges

Bruce McCurdy: The more modern 5v5 GF% had Lucic at 55.0%, based on 44 GF / 36 GA = +8 at true even strength. The extra minuses came on shorties and empty netters against, the fundamental flaw of that “antiquated” stat.

Someone is sure to play the CMD card…

… any minute…

(perfectly valid card to play here)

Georges

Lowetide:
I’m just dropping in to make sure we all still agree that 5×5 scoring has more value than 5×4 scoring, which onsome level, is partly a product of being on the ice for power plays.

This is very confusing. When did we all agree? Please reference post so I can get up to speed.

Revolved

Bruce McCurdy,

Happy to have attracted the ire of a professional. I was not implying that Letestu should not play, but that center might not be his best spot.

My suggestion has actually been that he play on McDavid’s wing. Despite how crazy that might sound, He clearly has a wicked accurate one timer and would help a lot with face offs.

It seems accepted that 4C is his spot, but I think Strome would outplay those minutes better with weaker comp and mates. Of the mates you listed, he had the worst GF% except Hendricks.

Gayfish

I’m afraid of Lucic. Mostly because that is the face of a man who has nothing to lose by fighting.

DaveWatchesHockey

Georges: Bah! Consultants…

I want to argue with you about first looking at a data set and then selecting boundaries that fit a narrative but I did the same thing in building an argument against Hall. So, crap!

I have to go with the much less fun 0.61 isn’t statistically different from 0.69 in an 82-game sample. Easily within the limits of random fluctuation.

I still blame Eberle…

Choosing the most optimal data to fit a story is what we consultants are good at.

Dave.

ps. Lucic is awesome!

McNuge93

Melman: While there are lots of tough customers (Gryba, Kassian) there are only a handful of “don’t even think about it” players who can also play a top role.Lucic is one, Chara also comes to mind.This is fun because it’s value – real or perceived – fits squarely in theold timey vs. analitics debate.How do you measure the extra 2 inches and 10 lbs. that Caggiula feels knowing that Looch is on the bench, allowing him to fore check that little bit more aggressively?

Yes, I definitely saw a few after the whistle skirmishes that were developing and suddenly fade away because Lucic skated into the area.

Bruce McCurdy

John Chambers: Thirty-six goals against all season for a guy who played a regular shift at 5×5 and 82 games is remarkable.

Had his line popped a half-dozen more GF during the year it would be laudable 5×5 performance.

Yep, it worked out to +2.33 / -1.90 per 60. Pretty solid.

His PDO was 1008 which is good but hardly exceptional. It was his seventh straight season over 1000 so I’m guessing it’s not entirely a fluky thing.

Pink Socks

Lucic Zone Starts vs Pts/60 & GF%

Past 4 seasons:

16-17 – 32.9% OZ / 28.2% DZ – 4.7% OZ>DZ – 1.22 Pts/60 – 55.0 GF%
15-16 – 36.6% OZ / 26.8% DZ – 9.8% OZ>DZ – 2.04 Pts/60 – 61.4 GF%
14-15 – 36.6% OZ / 31.2% DZ – 5.4% OZ>DZ – 1.69 Pts/60 – 57.7 GF%
13-14 – 39.1% OZ / 25.9% DZ – 13.2% OZ>DZ – 2.03 Pts/60 – 65.5 GF%

There is a direct correlation between the delta of offensive zone starts and defensive zone starts to go along with Lucic’s Pts/60 and GF%. Obviously this a generally true statement for all players, but it appears as though TMac is starting Lucic much closer percentage wise in the defensive zone that his two recent years over the 2.0 Pts/60 seasons.

If Lucic gets the gap back closer to 10% more OZ starts than DZ starts one could then assume we could again be looking at a player closer to 2.0 Pts/60 and a GF% above 60 and the discussion throughout the year is much different about this player.

Melman

Bank Shot: Gryba and Kassian fall into the same category of player that the Oilers had loads of when the Oilers were getting bullied all over the ice in the dark times. They aren’t on the ice as much as skill guys so they can’t help as much.

Lucic is the only one of those guys that is downright scary. Since 2012, Prout is the only guy he’s lost a fight too. When Lucic dropped them two years ago with Maroon, Maroon just hung on for dear life.

It’s tough to determine if there is any real link between intimidation and reduced headhunting, but if there is a link, Lucic is definitely the number one deterrent on the Oilers and top five in the league.

While there are lots of tough customers (Gryba, Kassian) there are only a handful of “don’t even think about it” players who can also play a top role. Lucic is one, Chara also comes to mind. This is fun because it’s value – real or perceived – fits squarely in the old timey vs. analitics debate. How do you measure the extra 2 inches and 10 lbs. that Caggiula feels knowing that Looch is on the bench, allowing him to fore check that little bit more aggressively?

roggy

Georges,

Tuesday’s widgets are made after drinking rye all weekend, and contractor is still hungover…while Thursday’s widgets, the contractor is all happy that the weekend is coming around again and have something to look forward too !!

Professor Q

Bruce McCurdy:
I calculated for the league as a whole & powerplays were up from 5.97 per game (both teams) in the regular season to 6.25 in the playoffs. Some tiny fraction of the “extra” penalties would have occurred in extended overtime periods. But certainly no evidence that the refs put their whistles away to any greater extent than they did all season long.

The League surprisingly disagrees with you, however, hence why they’re investigating on how to take those increased uncalled infractions out of playoff hockey. They usually take the opposite stance and support the refs bar-none.

Pink Socks

jtblack:
The Beauty of 2017 Oilers– Off years by Lucic, RNH and maybe Ebs to a degree AND still 103 points.

Some others will dip this coning year but a nice bounce back by RNH and Lucic will help the Balance

Paging Hunter. The Death March this year should have:

Point total
Lucic 5×5 Pts/60 above 1.22 from 16/17
RNH 5×5 Pts/60 above 1.45 from 16/17

John Chambers

Bruce McCurdy: The more modern 5v5 GF% had Lucic at 55.0%, based on 44 GF / 36 GA = +8 at true even strength. The extra minuses came on shorties and empty netters against, the fundamental flaw of that “antiquated” stat.

Thirty-six goals against all season for a guy who played a regular shift at 5×5 and 82 games is remarkable.

Had his line popped a half-dozen more GF during the year it would be laudable 5×5 performance.

Bruce McCurdy

I calculated for the league as a whole & powerplays were up from 5.97 per game (both teams) in the regular season to 6.25 in the playoffs. Some tiny fraction of the “extra” penalties would have occurred in extended overtime periods. But certainly no evidence that the refs put their whistles away to any greater extent than they did all season long.

Pink Socks

A very entertaining thread today 5×5 vs 5×4. This type of debate is the one that helps find that one true magical statistic that accurately measures the value of a player.

jtblack

The Beauty of 2017 Oilers – Off years by Lucic, RNH and maybe Ebs to a degree AND still 103 points.

Some others will dip this coning year but a nice bounce back by RNH and Lucic will help the Balance

Pink Socks

Bruce McCurdy,

Someone is on fire today. Thank you Bruce!

Bank Shot

Keep in mind Lucic had to spend a fair bit of time as babysitting detail with Caggiula and Slepyshev when that was a line.

Also he had to spend a lot of time riding shotgun with the Nuge who as we all know has always been an underwhelming even strength player.

Georges

DaveWatchesHockey: I must disagree.

The accurate statement would be something like:

0.45 (first three years)
0.69 (Next 6 years through 2016)
0.61 (2016 – 2017)

At the beginning of his widget apprenticeship Milan Lucic produced less widgets, but once he became fully widget trained his widget production was strong.After signing with his new employer his widget production slightly dipped causing some small concern about his future in the widget business.

Dave

Professional widget consultant.

Bah! Consultants…

I want to argue with you about first looking at a data set and then selecting boundaries that fit a narrative but I did the same thing in building an argument against Hall. So, crap!

I have to go with the much less fun 0.61 isn’t statistically different from 0.69 in an 82-game sample. Easily within the limits of random fluctuation.

I still blame Eberle…

Professor Q

Bruce McCurdy: Oilers had 2.99 powerplay opportunities per game in the regular season and 3.23 in the playoffs.
Oilers were shorthanded 2.72 times per game in the regular season and 3.77 in the playoffs.

Could this be due to the shorter sample spread? Or perhaps just *that* many more infractions occurring during playoffs that you see more being uncalled as well as called (something about a rising boat lifting all waters or the like…)?

Bruce McCurdy

jtblack:
Bruce McCurdy,

Thanks Bruce.Guess I was clearly incorrect on this. I really thought less got called.

I still put more value on 5×5.But could be pursuaded

Not sure about league-wide, but I was struck by how penalty calls went up in the playoffs for Oilers games. Especially penalties called *against* the Oil.

I double checked Oilers playoff games from the previous 10 years but couldn’t locate any data for some reason. 😐

Bruce McCurdy

John Chambers: One thing that may be worth pointing out is that despite poor scoring 5×5, Lucic finished the season a mere -3 (using that antiquated stat).

The more modern 5v5 GF% had Lucic at 55.0%, based on 44 GF / 36 GA = +8 at true even strength. The extra minuses came on shorties and empty netters against, the fundamental flaw of that “antiquated” stat.

jtblack

Bruce McCurdy,

Thanks Bruce. Guess I was clearly incorrect on this. I really thought less got called.

I still put more value on 5×5. But could be pursuaded

Jordan

Kinger_Oil.redux: – But all goals are equal (where do empty netters get slotted?).There is a narrative in the fancy stat community that only 5×5 is a measure of talent, or effectiveness; the PP scoring seemingly dismissed, even though scoring on the PP is a more likely outcome, and scoring on the PP matters, a lot, given the dearth of scoring.

– Some dismiss power-play goal scorers:this is a mistake IMO

– 5×5 scoring has more value than 5×4 scoring: this simply isn’t true: only goals matter

I agree with you – Goals matter.

However, I will always prefer a player who scores better 5v5 than a player who scores 5v4, as there is more time in the game played at 5v5.

Additionally, 5v5 scoring rates are more important in high-stake games like those in the playoffs, because of the mentality of referees who don’t want to decide the game by over-distributing powerplays to one team. We saw that many times this post-season, with Kesler *spits* mauling McDavid and nothing happening.

You’re not going to get as many powerplays when the games matter more, so players who produce better on the powerplay in the regular season with have an overall decrease in production in the post season, when you equalize results for shooting percentage variance.

That’s my belief, and I am certain there are players out there who will get on a hot streak and produce like mad in the playoffs and make my argument look stupid.

But they will be the outliers, and they will be few and far between.

In general 5v5 scoring is rates are better indicators of overall hockey ability than 5v4. As there is substantially more time played 5v5, those scoring rates are less likely to be affected by statistical noise caused by small sample sizes.

Edit:
And there’s Bruce, helping to reduce the ignorance of us all. I want to call him a Jerk, but he’s a great guy, and really I’m just mad at myself.

As Hobbes said, “Hell is truth seen too late”.

Sigh.

Chachi

Bruce McCurdy: Oilers had 2.99 powerplay opportunities per game in the regular season and 3.23 in the playoffs.
Oilers were shorthanded 2.72 times per game in the regular season and 3.77 in the playoffs.

You are doing the hockey gords’ work today. Thank you.

Bruce McCurdy

jtblack:
jtblack,

EDIT: There are fewer PP opp’s during Playoffs, thus furtherputting an emphasis on 5×5 play and 5×5 scoring.

Oilers had 2.99 powerplay opportunities per game in the regular season and 3.23 in the playoffs.
Oilers were shorthanded 2.72 times per game in the regular season and 3.77 in the playoffs.

Side

jtblack:
jtblack,

EDIT: There are fewer PP opp’s during Playoffs, thus furtherputting an emphasis on 5×5 play and 5×5 scoring.

I would argue that PP becomes even more valuable in the playoffs, because playoff hockey at 5×5 seems so evenly matched that the teams that can produce 5×4 would be at an advantage.

I say I “would argue” this, but I am lazy and don’t have numbers to back it up so going purely on theory here.

DaveWatchesHockey

Georges:
Lucic’s points per game:

0.61 (career)
0.61 (career prior to 2016-17)
0.61 (2016-17)

Last season, Lucic produced hockey widgets at the same rate as he’s done throughout his career. He produced fewer widgets on Tuesdays than he usually does. But he made up for it by producing more widgets on Thursdays. His employer got exactly what he should have expected for widget production out of Lucic.

I must disagree.

The accurate statement would be something like:

0.45 (first three years)
0.69 (Next 6 years through 2016)
0.61 (2016 – 2017)

At the beginning of his widget apprenticeship Milan Lucic produced less widgets, but once he became fully widget trained his widget production was strong. After signing with his new employer his widget production slightly dipped causing some small concern about his future in the widget business.

Dave

Professional widget consultant.

John Chambers

Lowetide:
I’m just dropping in to make sure we all still agree that 5×5 scoring has more value than 5×4 scoring, which onsome level, is partly a product of being on the ice for power plays. Also agree with several posters who have said it’s likely Lucic recovers 5×5 scoring. He’s certainly a player I was comfortable expecting strong 5×5 numbers one year ago.

One thing that may be worth pointing out is that despite poor scoring 5×5, Lucic finished the season a mere -3 (using that antiquated stat).

I mention that because my eyes told me last year that Lucic was a fairly responsible own-zone player, and often matching up against the other team’s best he would help break the cycle and tie up the opposing RW.

I suppose what I’m trying to contribute here is that even though #27 had trouble scoring 5×5 he didn’t get scored on much either, which is just as important a factor when looking at EV play.