SLAMMED

by Lowetide

It is wildly unfair to compare free-agent summers in the Craig MacTavish era and Peter Chiarelli’s additions. The biggest difference is Connor McDavid and (as is the case in all things) No. 97 changes the weather in a big way. When MacT was general manager, he had a video about ‘The Alberta Advantage’ and some nice young blue chip players and prospects. None of that can compare to Connor McDavid.

MACT’S FREE AGENTS

  • July 5, 2013—Andrew Ference
  • July 5, 2013—Boyd Gordon
  • July 5, 2013—Jesse Joensuu
  • July 5, 2013—Jason LaBarbera
  • July 5, 2013—Ryan Hamilton
  • July 6, 2013—Richard Bachman
  • July 8, 2013—Denis Grebeshkov
  • July 1, 2014—Benoit Pouliot
  • July 1, 2014—Mark Fayne
  • July 1, 2014—Keith Aulie

It’s easy to look back and dump on him for these signings (the Ference contract just got finished) but when you’re trying to shore up an NHL defense, veterans who can help have high value. At the time of his signing, Ference was part of a solid defensive group, the Oilers needed him to play inside the top 4D. That’s a bet we see NHL teams make every summer. When Ference signed, I said this about him:

  • D Andrew Ference, 4 years times 3.25M. An overpay where he’ll play, Ference is ideally suited as a veteran pairing for Schultz the younger. He was 4th among Bruins in EV TOI (17:06) and fourth in PK TOI (2:13) and will probably play similar minutes with the Oilers. I think we should probably prepare for Ladislav Smid or Nick Schultz heading out of town (Ottawa or Philly is my guess) before training camp. The current LH depth chart is Smid, Ference, N Schultz, Anton Belov, Oscar Klefbom–suspect we’ll see a flip before fall. Source

He played 21:04 that first season, about 90 seconds a game more than he had in Boston. I think he was a reasonable bet, Boyd Gordon too, and for me the best bet was Benoit Pouliot (despite his being bought out this summer). I also believe Mark Fayne was a good signing. It didn’t work out but grabbing an NHL defenseman who can defend is something I’m always going to encourage.

CHIARELLI’S FREE AGENTS

  • July 1, 2015—Andrej Sekera
  • July 1, 2015—Mark Letestu
  • July 1, 2016—Milan Lucic
  • July 1, 2016—Mark Fraser
  • July 1, 2016—Jonas Gustavsson
  • July 3, 2016—Taylor Beck
  • October 7, 2016—Kris Russell
  • July 7, 2017—Jussi Jokinen
  • July 10, 2017—LD Yohann Auvitu

How many of these players can be credited to the drafting of Connor McDavid? Does ‘all of them’ cover it? I think so, although Peter Chiarelli will get credit or blame depending on how things roll out. It is fair to say that Sekera and Lucic would not have been available to MacT and I think a player like Jussi Jokinen is also in that category (he said as much).

All of which is to say the following: With greater opportunity comes greater risk. I count Peter Chiarelli’s best free agent addition as being Andrej Sekera so far, but Matt Benning (not listed here) could end up being the best addition. As we move into this season, very important that the expensive signings (Sekera, Lucic, Russell) deliver in a big way. The verbal next summer, if RNH has to be moved while these expensive veterans have under-performed contracts, will be about free agents that haven’t worked out while also costing valuable assets.

I think this summer the Draisaitl/McDavid contracts were framed as being the culprits when it came to Jordan Eberle’s exit. I don’t think framing the issue in a similar manner next summer is going to work. These free-agent signings, in the days after the rapture, are going to tell their own story. The pressure is on. Now. My bet is that Milan Lucic recovers 5×5 and posts a strong season. I think he was probably challenged by the struggles of last season and will want to show fans he has more to bring. I bet he recovers 5×5 scoring in 2017-18. You?

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Georges

Woodguy v2.0:
Georges,

You’re acting really weird.

You said this:

And Hall’s last 3 years don’t look like his best years (not even close).

I then pointed out that 15/16 was Hall’s 2nd or 3rd best 5v5 year so your statement was wrong.

Then you wrote this:

So, yes, Hall’s ES scoring in 15-16 was his 3rd best result in his career. You could hang your hat on that and ignore the surrounding numbers. If you wanted to.

Which is weird because all I was correcting was your error saying “Halls’s last 3 years don’t look like his best year (not even close)”

That’s all that my statement was, but you read way more into it.

At no point was I comparing the two players except to say they both excelled at 5v5 and not so much 5v4.

Hall’s last 3 years don’t look like his best years (not even close). They don’t if you look at totals. Which you really should if you’re going to look at scoring. All goals count. Even if you look only at ES, you said he maybe had his second best year on rates. But it actually was his third best year and the drop from second to third best in his case was the drop from elite year to a good Lucic year. I make errors. Not one here that needs to be corrected.

As for the weird bit, I’m feeling OK, thanks. Weird depends on your point of view I guess. You put forward a weird Pouliot = Lucic based on rates argument. To which Chachi correctly replied: LOL. I added detail. Ricki added more and better detail. His observation is terrific: when a regular player doesn’t play, he has to be replaced with a not regular player. If you’re going to compare rates, at least compare Lucic to Pouliot plus replacement AHL-level player (or make some other attempt to estimate Pouliot replacement scoring). Not sure if your equation holds up if you do that.

As always, I look forward to your next numbers-based argument. It’s always educational.

Woodguy v2.0

Georges,

You’re acting really weird.

You said this:

And Hall’s last 3 years don’t look like his best years (not even close).

I then pointed out that 15/16 was Hall’s 2nd or 3rd best 5v5 year so your statement was wrong.

Then you wrote this:

So, yes, Hall’s ES scoring in 15-16 was his 3rd best result in his career. You could hang your hat on that and ignore the surrounding numbers. If you wanted to.

Which is weird because all I was correcting was your error saying “Halls’s last 3 years don’t look like his best year (not even close)”

That’s all that my statement was, but you read way more into it.

At no point was I comparing the two players except to say they both excelled at 5v5 and not so much 5v4.

Georges

Woodguy v2.0: Gritted teeth?

I guess tone is tough to get from my writing.

No gritted teeth at all.

I pray the Peter didn’t hobble McDavid’s team with a large unmoveable contract.

Also,

Hall’s 2nd (might be 3rd) best 5v5 pts/60 season was his last year as an Oiler

Hmm… here’s what I get from nhl.com. They have ES data; that’s a good proxy for 5v5 and it has a higher correlation to points in the standings.

Hall’s P/GP

Season, ES, Total

10-11, 0.48, 0.65
11-12, 0.53, 0.87
12-13, 0.80, 1.11
13-14, 0.83, 1.07
14-15, 0.60, 0.72
15-16, 0.65, 0.79
16-17, 0.53, 0.74

So, yes, Hall’s ES scoring in 15-16 was his 3rd best result in his career. You could hang your hat on that and ignore the surrounding numbers. If you wanted to.

Here’s Lucic:

Season, ES, Total

07-08, 0.31, 0.51
08-09, 0.47, 0.58
09-10, 0.38, 0.40
10-11, 0.61, 0.79
11-12, 0.62, 0.75
12-13, 0.54, 0.59
13-14, 0.59, 0.74
14-15, 0.44, 0.54
15-16, 0.58, 0.68
16-17, 0.31, 0.61

Lucic’s rates are nowhere near Hall’s, are they? Hall is an elite scorer. Lucic is a steady scorer. With such a discrepancy in rates, Hall must have contributed way more scoring to his teams over the past 7 years than Lucic has to his teams, right?

ES Points in the past 7 seasons

Hall, 284
Lucic, 278

Total Points in the past 7 seasons

Hall, 381
Lucic, 358

There’s that thing about using rates without context, i.e., actual points that result from actual games played. The scoring contribution of these two players over the past 7 seasons is not that different.

But, yeah, they both have scored less recently. I don’t know what the future holds but I think it probably holds less scoring for both. I’m happy to be wrong. Goals are fun!

Woodguy v2.0

Georges:
Woodguy v2.0,

If Lucic plays 57 games this year and Pouliot plays 82 and they both get similar rates, I’ll go with Pouliot scores more points next season. But things aren’t that unpredictable. I like Pouliot but Pouliot has never scored more than 40 points in a season. Pouliot outscoring Lucic next season wouldn’t be an even bet. But if your conclusion is “how little there was to choose between the two” and you think the outcomes are equiprobable then I’ll stop trying. By your last statement on RNH, sounds like you’ll be cheering for Lucic through gritted teeth. It’s still cheering in my book.

As for the Hall reference, yeah, I can get on board. The patterns are similar. They both have a solid history of scoring, Hall obviously at a higher rate. And for both players, it’s been more scoring early, less scoring lately. Lucic’s last 3 years don’t look like his best years (although LAK was kinda comparable). And Hall’s last 3 years don’t look like his best years (not even close). But, yeah, sure, saying their best years scoring wise are likely behind them is probably not going too far out on the limb. Because Hall was an elite scorer, he had further to fall so it’s more noticeable with him.

Gritted teeth?

I guess tone is tough to get from my writing.

No gritted teeth at all.

I pray the Peter didn’t hobble McDavid’s team with a large unmoveable contract.

Also,

Hall’s 2nd (might be 3rd) best 5v5 pts/60 season was his last year as an Oiler

Georges

Woodguy v2.0,

If Lucic plays 57 games this year and Pouliot plays 82 and they both get similar rates, I’ll go with Pouliot scores more points next season. But things aren’t that unpredictable. I like Pouliot but Pouliot has never scored more than 40 points in a season. Pouliot outscoring Lucic next season wouldn’t be an even bet. But if your conclusion is “how little there was to choose between the two” and you think the outcomes are equiprobable then I’ll stop trying. By your last statement on RNH, sounds like you’ll be cheering for Lucic through gritted teeth. It’s still cheering in my book.

As for the Hall reference, yeah, I can get on board. The patterns are similar. They both have a solid history of scoring, Hall obviously at a higher rate. And for both players, it’s been more scoring early, less scoring lately. Lucic’s last 3 years don’t look like his best years (although LAK was kinda comparable). And Hall’s last 3 years don’t look like his best years (not even close). But, yeah, sure, saying their best years scoring wise are likely behind them is probably not going too far out on the limb. Because Hall was an elite scorer, he had further to fall so it’s more noticeable with him.

rickithebear

All you experts:
Laughed about fistric.
Even when i laid it out for you
M…….. Jerry!

Edm
Ana
1. 1evg 13 eva +23

2. Best 0% Corsi Dman in league.
2 evga to his side.

3. Top 3 pkga dman in game.

But i can understand how you guys felt we needed
That elite off dman who generates at #10 forward rate
Rather than his #11 forward rate.

Yup so much more important than being the best dman in the game at making a goalies job the easiest.

Fuck I still laugh how stupid that thought process is
And when you read it.

Priceless!

Remember when trying to find the best
1. D supression Dmen
And
2. 0% chance corsi dmen.

Femwick is 50 to 100% less effective at letting you know a dman’s def value.

I would really feel bad for anyone who used fenwick.
Cause it captures the best def dmen in the game about 47% of the time season to season.

rickithebear

avearage the last 3 seasons
Hall:
69 gm 20g 32A 52P -5 first line forward.
13 gm of #13 to AHL forwards
By failing to be heathy hall gave us 15.9% of games at below 4 th line performance.

Lucic:
81.33gm 20g 30a 50p +12
.66gm #13 to ahl forward. 0.8% of games per season. Without 1 st line forward.

I have allways believed in repeatability of performance.
Like russels elite 0% Corsi rate for 80% of the season.
Or
Fistric being the best 0% Corsi Dman in league when Mact tried to sign the equivalent of russel for 3yr @ 1.25M

But missed games have to be included in the measure.

With hall missing 13 games his repeatabilty % is
X% x 84.9%

Lucic repeatability rate is x% x 99.2%

Guess who belichek, myself and PC choose.

Woodguy v2.0

Georges,

You’re having a difficult time with the importance of health part. First you say if it’s just 5v4 opportunity and health, then Lucic is an awful signing. Then you guess health is important. Finally you agree that health is important but then immediately go back to equating the players based on rates.

We should always use rates with context.

I agree if a player has an injury history then that plays into it.


Lucic had 42 more ES points in those 3 years while having a comparable ES rate to Pouliot. Points scored are more important than points potentially scored. By hand waving GP, you take away one of the big things Lucic has going for him in the league. He plays.

I’m not hand waving it away.

You can’t predict gp although I agree if its chronic (like Pou seems to be) vs someone like Lucic its a factor.

If Lucic only plays 57 games this year and Pou plays 82 and they get similar rates, what then?


You’re making choices here that put Lucic in a bad light. Not sure why but they’re just choices. I’d hesitate to make them because they favor smaller samples over larger samples. Over the past 10 seasons, only 33 forwards have scored more points at even strength than Lucic. That’s pretty good information. It tells me Lucic is a pretty good player at ES.

Lucic’s rates are what they are. Only his last season was poor.

I’m surprised you went back 10 years on Lucic when you accused me of cherry picking by going back 4 years on Hall and not 3.


(BTW, the correlation between ES scoring and PP scoring for established forwards is pretty high. Coaches basically play ES scorers on the PP. If you’re going to focus on just scoring to evaluate forward play, then you should use total points. Doing something else is favoring less data over more data.)

Lucic’s low PP totals were similar throughout his career until last year.

Like Hall he was a 5v5 killer and not much on the PP.


Lucic is scoring at a lower rate in the past 3 seasons overall than his peak Boston years. That’s concerning but not unexpected given the player age curve. The big dropoff last season is just plain unusual given his track record. It would have to be weighed against the consistent ES production in the prior seasons before drawing any inferences. With one season of unusual results, I’d question the situation and usage before questioning the player. But, who knows, players hit walls and you don’t always see it coming. So let’s see what happens this season.
I’m sure you’ll be cheering just as hard as I will for Lucic to post big numbers all around.

I cheer for every Oiler.

The point of my exercise was to show how little there was to choose between the two when the perception is quite different.

I’ll concede gp because Lucic has a history of health and Pou doesn’t over the last 3 years.

What spurred this is all the talk of moving RNH or Sekera out next year because McDavid’s contract kicks in.

No one ever mentions Lucic even though his first year as an Oiler was dismal in terms of 5v5 production.

Hell, even RNH beat him.

Chachi

Georges,

I agree completely.

Georges

Chachi: Good grief! What’s next? Are people going to start defending Donald Trump on this blog? Oh yeah, crap!

You DO read every post… spooky.

There’s a big difference between Lucic didn’t score at ES in 16-17 and Lucic doesn’t score at ES. Lucic is a great ES player. As I said earlier, if things didn’t work last season, I’d question situation and usage before questioning the player. The player has a way too strong a track record.

(I think you agree with me on this but not entirely sure.)

Chachi

Georges: Lucic is great 5v5.

First!

Good grief! What’s next? Are people going to start defending Donald Trump on this blog? Oh yeah, crap!

Georges

Chachi: I read almost every post every day here and can’t recall a single poster that claimed Lucic was great 5v5. No idea what is going on at Oilers Nation or Cult of Hockey. You can find all sorts of stupid arguments on twitter about everything. Mostly its just an echo chamber for idiots.

Lucic is great 5v5.

First!

Georges

Woodguy v2.0:
The hyprocrisy I’m trying to point out is when the same people saying Pouliot is a “failed UFA signging” who at the same time think Lucic is great.

If all the difference between the two at 5v5 is games played then there’s a massive disconnect between that line of thinking and reality.

5v5 pts/60
14/15
Lucic 1.66
Pouliot 1.90

15/16
Lucic 2.06
Pouliot 2.01

16/17
Lucic 1.22
Pouliot1.08

If the whole disparity between the players is 5v4 opportunity and health……then Lucic is an awful signing.

Powerplay pts/60

14/15
Lucic 3.24
Pouliot3.71

15/16
Lucic 2.84
Pouliot 4.19

16/17
Lucic6.85
Pouliot0.00

I find it astounding that Pouliot’s 5v5 and 5v4 rates in his first two years of his EDM contract are better than Lucic’s over the same period and the perception of the players is so polar opposite.

I guess reputation and staying healthy are pretty important.

I agree that staying healthy is important, but man if I didn’t label who was who no one could pick out who’s results were who’s.

You’re having a difficult time with the importance of health part. First you say if it’s just 5v4 opportunity and health, then Lucic is an awful signing. Then you guess health is important. Finally you agree that health is important but then immediately go back to equating the players based on rates.

Lucic had 42 more ES points in those 3 years while having a comparable ES rate to Pouliot. Points scored are more important than points potentially scored. By hand waving GP, you take away one of the big things Lucic has going for him in the league. He plays.

You’re making choices here that put Lucic in a bad light. Not sure why but they’re just choices. I’d hesitate to make them because they favor smaller samples over larger samples. Over the past 10 seasons, only 33 forwards have scored more points at even strength than Lucic. That’s pretty good information. It tells me Lucic is a pretty good player at ES.

(BTW, the correlation between ES scoring and PP scoring for established forwards is pretty high. Coaches basically play ES scorers on the PP. If you’re going to focus on just scoring to evaluate forward play, then you should use total points. Doing something else is favoring less data over more data.)

Lucic is scoring at a lower rate in the past 3 seasons overall than his peak Boston years. That’s concerning but not unexpected given the player age curve. The big dropoff last season is just plain unusual given his track record. It would have to be weighed against the consistent ES production in the prior seasons before drawing any inferences. With one season of unusual results, I’d question the situation and usage before questioning the player. But, who knows, players hit walls and you don’t always see it coming. So let’s see what happens this season.

I’m sure you’ll be cheering just as hard as I will for Lucic to post big numbers all around.

season not played

Woodguy v2.0: I wasn’t the only one in the thread to call youout on it.

What you were posting was so ridiculous and transparent one reasonably astute poster wondered if batman took over your account.

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0: Read the comment sections here, Oilers Nation, Cult of Hockey writers and comment sections, and twitter.

Pretty much everywhere.

Not a strawman.

I read almost every post every day here and can’t recall a single poster that claimed Lucic was great 5v5. No idea what is going on at Oilers Nation or Cult of Hockey. You can find all sorts of stupid arguments on twitter about everything. Mostly its just an echo chamber for idiots.

godot10

Woodguy v2.0: I think the disconnect between he and the coach was pretty big and the main reason he was bought out.

I don’t he ever played soft though.

Now that Pou and Eberle are gone I don’t think there are any players left on the roster that the coach has disdain for.

Those two are pretty much the only two he had called out publicly during his time in EDM.

He called out Nugent-Hopkins, albeit indirectly, twice. There was no misundertanding who he was talking about.

Woodguy v2.0

season not played:

I wasn’t the only one in the thread to call you out on it.

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi: Who is saying Lucic was great? Where are all these hypocrites? The GM who signed him graded him as a 6 for last season and Lucic himself said he had to improve 5v5.

Read the comment sections here, Oilers Nation, Cult of Hockey writers and comment sections, and twitter.

Pretty much everywhere.

Not a strawman.

YKOil

jp: No one has said that though.
I agree 100% with WGs posts today, but don’t believe Pouliot is actually the better player (or even equal). I don’t think WG does either.

The point was that the actual gap in performance (not huge) is way out of step with people’s perceptions of the two players.

Agreed with JP’s point re: the discussion and WG’s point re: the players.

YKOil

OriginalPouzar: I can’t say I disagree with that, I’m just not sure he needed to post it.

All its going to do is cause a bitch-fest.

Loved the article. I now know Black Dog Hates Skunks is writing again (maybe he never stopped but I did disconnect for a while) and between him and Lowetide… yeah, I’ll be subscribing.

My day is officially made better by a Robin Brownlee article, never thought I would see that day 🙂

P.s. I don’t actually have anything against RB, has a dismissive and arrogant tone more often than warranted imo but other than that standard beat writer and all my sports reading days have included one or two articles by such every damn day.

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0:
The hyprocrisy I’m trying to point out is when the same people saying Pouliot is a “failed UFA signging” who at the same time think Lucic is great.

Who is saying Lucic was great? Where are all these hypocrites? The GM who signed him graded him as a 6 for last season and Lucic himself said he had to improve 5v5.

season not played

Woodguy v2.0: Except your assumptions are usually wrong about me, including here.

Says you.

Unless someone is a complete moron they will adjust their position, if possible, when their bullshit has been called out.

It’s a tactic you use to say things without saying them. Gives you room to backpeddle.

Unless, of course, I am giving you too much credit.

Woodguy v2.0

season not played:
You’re not the only person who can read between the lines.

Except your assumptions are usually wrong about me, including here.

I’d much rather have Lucic than Pou.

I just don’t think there’s as much to give between the players as most though.

season not played

You’re not the only person who can read between the lines.

Woodguy v2.0

season not played:
Merely pointing out that when you consider a players’ contribution to a winning hockey team there is really no comparison between the two.

Have a good day.

Except that’s not what you did.

You misrepresented what I wrote. (again)

Good day.

season not played

Merely pointing out that when you consider a players’ contribution to a winning hockey team there is really no comparison between the two.

Have a good day.

Woodguy v2.0

season not played:
Do you really want to do this again?

Not at all.

I’m surprised you started in on me.

defmn

Woodguy v2.0: I think the disconnect between he and the coach was pretty big and the main reason he was bought out.

I don’t he ever played soft though.

Now that Pou and Eberle are gone I don’t think there are any players left on the roster that the coach has disdain for.

Those two are pretty much the only two he had called out publicly during his time in EDM.

I agree with this. This is not a story that numbers confirm or dismiss. I don’t think we can do anymore than speculate on the exact reason or reasons but there was something about Pouliot that MacLellan decided was not conducive to moving the team forward and Chiarelli accepted or agreed with his analysis. Points were not the issue. It was something else.

I would point out that Fayne is still around though. He was the original example and for some reason he was demoted rather than moved.

season not played

Do you really want to do this again?

Woodguy v2.0

season not played:
No names were used and “if” and “more or less” were used specifically to prevent the incoming “words in my mouth” outcry.

How you perceive my statement is probably a pretty good indicator of how you are thinking.

Appreciate the confirmation.

I was the only one who brought it up.

Don’t try to hide behind “I didn’t name you”

Be a grown up.

Woodguy v2.0

One last one.

Goal Share without McDavid last year:

Pouliot 50.0%
Lucic 47.8%

season not played

No names were used and “if” and “more or less” were used specifically to prevent the incoming “words in my mouth” outcry.

How you perceive my statement is probably a pretty good indicator of how you are thinking.

Appreciate the confirmation.

Woodguy v2.0

season not played,

Also, if you can sit there and more or less say you would rather have Pouliot on your team than Lucic then you are too far gone. You are failing to recognize all that factors in to winning hockey games. It’s time for people to start questioning your credibility.

Good thing I didn’t say that then eh?

Always putting words in my mouth as per your standard.

I write something and you take it to a place where I never went.

I wrote this to describe what I was doing:

“My whole point was that line between “failed FA signing that needed to bought out” and a $6MM FA signing with 6 years left is much thinner than most acknowledge.”

“The hyprocrisy I’m trying to point out is when the same people saying Pouliot is a “failed UFA signging” who at the same time think Lucic is great.
If all the difference between the two at 5v5 is games played then there’s a massive disconnect between that line of thinking and reality.”

jp

season not played:

Also, if you can sit there and more or less say you would rather have Pouliot on your team than Lucic then you are too far gone. You are failing to recognize all that factors in to winning hockey games. It’s time for people to start questioning your credibility.

No one has said that though.

I agree 100% with WGs posts today, but don’t believe Pouliot is actually the better player (or even equal). I don’t think WG does either.

The point was that the actual gap in performance (not huge) is way out of step with people’s perceptions of the two players.

frjohnk

season not played: Also, if you can sit there and more or less say you would rather have Pouliot on your team than Lucic then you are too far gone

Id rather have Lucic than Pouliot every day of the week.

But when Lucics contract is done and we look back, the possibility exists that the Lucic contract might have been worse.

season not played

It is likely the cost savings in the Strome deal factored in to it but I would think it was Eberles play, specifically “the shift”, in a crucial moment in a playoff game which had him out the door. Plus I think Strome is going to surprise a lot of people.

Also, if you can sit there and more or less say you would rather have Pouliot on your team than Lucic then you are too far gone. You are failing to recognize all that factors in to winning hockey games. It’s time for people to start questioning your credibility.

Woodguy v2.0

sliderule:
I was just trying t say there are lots of reasons that players like Pouliot and Fayne get traded or dropped.These reasons do nothave to involve analytics.
If you have a bad attitude you had better be over contributing in other areas.A bad attitude can infect a whole team and coaches usually want to get rid of as quick as possible.
If you are throwing snow in the corners and not aggressively clearing in front of net you have to be way better in some other area.Coaches wantthe rest of team to stick their nose in the tough areas and allowing someone to get away with soft play is infectious

I think the disconnect between he and the coach was pretty big and the main reason he was bought out.

I don’t he ever played soft though.

Now that Pou and Eberle are gone I don’t think there are any players left on the roster that the coach has disdain for.

Those two are pretty much the only two he had called out publicly during his time in EDM.

Woodguy v2.0

frjohnk: Some people see the junk season Pouliot just had and then say ” yup another reason why advanced stats suck”.But these same people also forget that Pouliot had two pretty decent first seasons in Edmonton.

But all they will remember is the 14 points in 80 games including playoffs and “bad penalties”.Sometimes guys have bad seasons.

Lucic had a terrible season at 5 on 5.Went through about a 25 game goalless streak and in the last 67 games which included the playoffs he scored 5 goals at even strength.Sometimes guys have bad seasons.

Lucics season was saved by a dominate PP of which he was a big part of.Lucic has a history of scoring well at even strength and verbal has it that he is in better shape.

Lucic should have a bounce back year at 5 on 5 this year.

I think Pouliot does the same as well.

I’d bet on both to be much better 5v5 this year too.

frjohnk

Woodguy v2.0: I find it astounding that Pouliot’s 5v5 and 5v4 rates in his first two years of his EDM contract are better than Lucic’s over the same period and the perception of the players is so polar opposite.

Some people see the junk season Pouliot just had and then say ” yup another reason why advanced stats suck”. But these same people also forget that Pouliot had two pretty decent first seasons in Edmonton.

But all they will remember is the 14 points in 80 games including playoffs and “bad penalties”. Sometimes guys have bad seasons.

Lucic had a terrible season at 5 on 5. Went through about a 25 game goalless streak and in the last 67 games which included the playoffs he scored 5 goals at even strength. Sometimes guys have bad seasons.

Lucics season was saved by a dominate PP of which he was a big part of. If Lucic had a “normal season” on the PP, there would be more fans not liking the signing. Lucic has had very good advanced stats up until last year. Wonder if this would be considered a “failed advanced stat signing”

Lucic has a history of scoring well at even strength and verbal has it that he is in better shape.

Lucic should have a bounce back year at 5 on 5 this year.

I think Pouliot does the same as well.

russ99

MacTavish’s second biggest failing was lack of support for the young players and running them together for mad minutes on a free for all scoring line in a vainglorious attempt to bring back the 80s.

The rebuild didn’t have to be so painful, bringing in the right veterans support and splitting up the lines and managing young player minutes could have helped.

Part of the issue was FAs not wanting to go to Edmonton, admittedly.

His biggest failing was Eakins. Being swayed by a hotel room pitch, and throwing everything to the wolves because of it.

sliderule

I was just trying t say there are lots of reasons that players like Pouliot and Fayne get traded or dropped.These reasons do not have to involve analytics.
If you have a bad attitude you had better be over contributing in other areas.A bad attitude can infect a whole team and coaches usually want to get rid of as quick as possible.
If you are throwing snow in the corners and not aggressively clearing in front of net you have to be way better in some other area.Coaches want the rest of team to stick their nose in the tough areas and allowing someone to get away with soft play is infectious

Woodguy v2.0

The hyprocrisy I’m trying to point out is when the same people saying Pouliot is a “failed UFA signging” who at the same time think Lucic is great.

If all the difference between the two at 5v5 is games played then there’s a massive disconnect between that line of thinking and reality.

5v5 pts/60
14/15
Lucic 1.66
Pouliot 1.90

15/16
Lucic 2.06
Pouliot 2.01

16/17
Lucic 1.22
Pouliot 1.08

If the whole disparity between the players is 5v4 opportunity and health……then Lucic is an awful signing.

Powerplay pts/60

14/15
Lucic 3.24
Pouliot 3.71

15/16
Lucic 2.84
Pouliot 4.19

16/17
Lucic 6.85
Pouliot 0.00

I find it astounding that Pouliot’s 5v5 and 5v4 rates in his first two years of his EDM contract are better than Lucic’s over the same period and the perception of the players is so polar opposite.

I guess reputation and staying healthy are pretty important.

I agree that staying healthy is important, but man if I didn’t label who was who no one could pick out who’s results were who’s.

Woodguy v2.0

Georges: This is cray cray.

From 14-15 to 16-17:

Pouliot

GP 180
Pts 84
Pts/GP 0.47

Lucic

GP 244
Pts 149
Pts/GP 0.61

Career

Pouliot

Seasons 13
GP 551
Pts 244
Pts/GP 0.44

Lucic

Seasons 10
GP 729
Pts 447
Pts/GP 0.61

You’re right. Really hard to tell the two of them apart.

(Also, your 2015-16 number for Lucic is wrong according to David Johnson’s data and NST.)

5v5 points George.

Lucic was very meh on the PP until he played with McDavid/Drai last year.

Woodguy v2.0

Johnny: WG has decided that Chiarelli is incompetent and the teams success is only because of McDavid.

He will do whatever it takes to prove this narrative.

I love when people spin their narrative on my narrative.

I’m on record as loving almost every move Peter has made that didn’t involve trading first round draft picks or a contract above $3.9MM

I think he’s fucked up a few big items and they might bite the team in the ass.

Also,

I didn’t “decide” that McDavid was the reason the Oilers scored way more goals last year.

I proved it with facts and stuff: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/07/oilers-went-from-25th-to-8th-in-nhl-in.html

Woodguy v2.0

My whole point was that line between “failed FA signing that needed to bought out” and a $6MM FA signing with 6 years left is much thinner than most acknowledge.

GCW_69

OriginalPouzar: In MacT’s defence, I don’t think any material player was signing with the organization unless there was some sort of overpay, either AAV or term and, in some cases, likely both.

I think that’s a bullshit defence.

Pouliot’s contemporaries that summer were Perrault and Raymond. One went to Calgary and one went to Winnipeg, so not prime teams or prime locations, and both got $3M x 3 years.

You can’t tell me the Oiler tax over Winnipeg and Calgary at that time was $11M on a $9M base. That’s impossible.

MacT was a shitty GM in well over his head. Period.

The only signing I give him a pass on is Fayne. And I think the lesson that signing taught us is you don’t give money and term to the passenger on a pairing.

Unfortunately, MacT is still around, the team apparently didn’t learn the lesson and now we have Russell on a classic MacT style contract.

Don’t get me wrong, Chia signed it and should be held accountable when it blows up, but I would have liked someone who knew what he was doing with Chia going, “um, this smells a lot like Fayne all over again. Maybe we should look at alternatives.”

OriginalPouzar

Looking forward to the lineup annoucment for the game against the canucks rookies this afternoon.

Hope Boeser and Juolevi and play – I want to beat their best.

LeonorMcdraivid

Hello from Germany,
I’ve watched both games of the young stars tournament and I’m glad to see, that the young guns have the chance to transfer the confidence of the NHL group or the organization.
For me, the way out of the shit is not only the gift named Connor McD, rather the acquisitions of players, who have the natural given authority like the Looch or bring the physical element like Adam L.
my opnion is,for example that player like Taylor Hall, so wonderful his skillset is, didnt ever have the chance, to be the player he is, because he was pushed into the role, to be the overall player.
Now, the team is more balanced and gives the talented group the terminal room for development.
The bodily development is indivdual and actually it is allowed to be indivdual.
Good times are coming…

I hope, you can comprehend, what i mean..