TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT

by Lowetide

I have the Oilers with 100 points in 2017-18, Connor McDavid winning another scoring championship and the team continuing the struggle to find secondary scoring. We’ll find out all down the line, every season writes its own script. Still building toward the team they will become, this Oilers club looks ready to cut through the heart of the Pacific Division one more time.

RE PROJECTIONS 2017-18

  • I have the Oilers increasing their goals-for almost entirely due to McDavid’s stretching out his offensive potential.
  • Defensively the club gives up 10 more goals than one year ago, I think the defense may give up more chances and the goaltending will see more backup presence. Still good, but a little wobble.

OILERS RE SCORING 2017-18

  • These are all the original numbers I projected, but the lines have moved to match the words of Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan in their conversations with Bob McKenzie and Bob Stauffer, respectively.
  • If Leon plays 2C, I’d give him 62-65 points, Strome as 1R probably gets to 50. It really depends who plays on the top two lines, how tough the competition for the 3line and of course who gets the PP push.
  • I have 15 defensemen playing, if someone emerges from  the group that is listed under ‘extra defense’ we could see many fewer. Never encouraging when you begin a year with one of your inner circle blue on the injured list.

TRADE DEADLINE

I believe Peter Chiarelli will be very active at this year’s trade deadline if Edmonton is in a playoff position. You’ll hear people say ‘deadline deals don’t help’ but adding to shore up areas of weakness is something general managers do at the deadline. Pittsburgh added Ron Hainsey, Mark Streit and Frank Corrado at the 2017 deadline, Justin Schultz in 2016. Peter Chiarelli is extremely aggressive and he has areas of need (scoring RW, veteran defense, possibly backup goalie) that he is currently addressing with the department of youth.

ASSETS OUT, FEBRUARY 26 2018

The trade deadline this season is February 26 according to Renaud Lavoie and he’s never wrong. Here are the current potential assets Chiarelli could move:

  • The 2018 draft picks. NHL teams don’t like trading picks for 11.5 months a year, and then spend them like drunken sailors at the deadline. Edmonton’s 2018 draft picks are No. 22, No. 53, No. 84, No. 115, No. 146, No. 177, No. 208. The numbers will change, important to note Edmonton currently holds all seven of their own selections. I think each is in play.
  • LHD prospects. The Oilers are well covered at the NHL level, with Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera and Darnell Nurse firmly entrenched at this time. Oilers may have enough depth to deal from strength to address weakness. I wonder what happens re: Yohann Auvitu. If the man from France has a strong season, could you see the Oilers move Andrej Sekera next summer in an effort to keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? I believe it’s worth keeping in mind. The two NHL regulars not bound by NMC’s are Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning, I don’t see either of them being dealt.
  • Young wingers who don’t succeed in a big way Anton Slepyshev is in a good spot but his injury may give others a chance at his perceived role. If he can find a spot on Leon Draisaitl’s line (with Milan Lucic), we may see a 20-goal scorer. If the Oilers give Drake Caggiula a feature slot, we may see Slepyshev dealt at the deadline (my guess is the Russian has more value than Caggiula among NHL teams who are interested in Edmonton’s winger collection). Jujhar Khaira is also in this category, on a lower level. This is the year for these men to emerge, if they don’t I expect a trade could occur at the deadline.
  • Odds and sods. Laurent Brossoit, Nick Ellis, Joey Laleggia, Dillon Simpson, you never know who will get dealt at a trade deadline. The Oilers have so many LHD (still) that’s probably a good guess.

ROOKIES 2017-18

Laurent Brossoit qualifies as a rookie (I believe, the NHL may have changed the rules when I wasn’t looking) and he’s the only Calder eligible player who should be with the big club all year. Kailer Yamamoto might get nine games, but I’m not projecting it and it’s unlikely at this point (things change). Dillon Simpson? Keegan Lowe? Joe Gambardella? It’s an interesting question: Which current Oilers rookie roster player has the best chance of having an impact in the NHL this season?

CAMP INVITES

Dennis Wideman still out there? I think it’s possible we see an addition on defense but Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan may want to wade into the exhibition schedule to see how things rhyme. Also, call me stubborn, but the Vegas Golden Knights have a bunch of defensemen and I can see Griffin Reinhart or Jason Garrison here by opening night.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun and packed show today, we’re drunk with guests! 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Who wins the JP/Cagg/Slepy battle, 5×5 by Lucic, rookies.
  • Ryan Pike, Flames Nation. The Flames want an arena and are negotiating in the public forum.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN. Alouettes make big changes, NFL Week Two just around the corner.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Bob McKenzie’s 2018 pre-season list is out today, we’ll get an early line on the draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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OriginalPouzar

Side: Natural development is definitely a real thing that is taken into consideration.

But how many times have players in the history of sports, who have shown a great rookie year or sophomore year, earned a big contract and then just…. plateaued or flat out declined in production? It’s not unheard of.

In my ideal world, I would love for players to be paid based on their proven production, not potential production.Especially when the teams paying these players have a salary cap.

Yes, for sure that happens but, with respect to Leon, he has improved year after year every year since he was drafted culminating in an elite season last year. Additionally, his elite season last year is not a surprising event – he was drafted 3rd overall and comes with high pedigree. Not to mention he seems like an extremely proud and driven player that will continue to strive to get betters.

There isn’t, to me, any reason to think this is a one off and that he won’t continue to improve. He won’t necessarily put up more boxcars this year but his overall game should improve – faceoffs, general 2-way play, leadership, etc.

The contract is indeed high and not without risk, I don’t think anyone really argues that, however its a calculated risk and likely a good bet.

geowal

Training camp open to public on Sunday if you’re into that sort of thing.

Side

OriginalPouzar: He was essentially a rookie.I believe natural development during late teenage years and early 20s is real and should be taken in to consideration.

Natural development is definitely a real thing that is taken into consideration.

But how many times have players in the history of sports, who have shown a great rookie year or sophomore year, earned a big contract and then just…. plateaued or flat out declined in production? It’s not unheard of.

In my ideal world, I would love for players to be paid based on their proven production, not potential production. Especially when the teams paying these players have a salary cap.

Side

pocession charge: If I was a betting man, I would definitely be comfortable betting that Leon will not be a 50 point player during any year of his contract.If he plays with McZoom full time, he has a legit chance to score 100.

And no, I don’t think he is worth $8.5M.His comps were $7.5M but he had a playoff heater and he has a good agent.

Ehh, 100 points? I don’t see it. I would love to eat my words, though.

godot10

pocession charge: I’m on record stating that the Oilers took all the risk when they signed this contract.Chia said the same thing in his interview.That said, if Leon puts up 50-60 points, something went drastically wrong and the Oilers probably don’t make the playoffs.If he’s healthy, I don’t think that there is much chance of that happening — the kid has real talent, not a flash-in-the-pan.Citing a 50-60 point season is about as fair as saying he’ll get 100-110 points.Realistically, it will be somewhere in the middle.

If Leon only puts up 50-60 points, it will because Lucic is done as an even strength hockey player. The risk on this team is all in the Lucic and Russell contracts.

Bank Shot

Side: Leon put up 51 points in 72 games played in 2015-2016.

77 points in 82 games 2016-2017.

I would say it’s a lot more likely he could have a 50-60 point season during his 8 year contract considering he has already posted a 50 point season and has not come close to a 100-110 season.

If we are to go somewhere in the middle between your predictions of 50 – 110, being 80 points. Is 80 points worth $8.5 million?

Yeah. That’s top ten in scoring. By 18-19, Draisaitl will be 14th in the NHL in salary.

By half way through the contract he’s likely to be down around 20-25th in salary.

That will be nice if he’s able to maintain top ten scoring.

The last few years will be especially gravy.

The key is he has to be a top 10-20 scorer throughout the life of the contract. Would be nice if he can improve on all his intangibles as well.

Material Elvis

Side: Leon put up 51 points in 72 games played in 2015-2016.

77 points in 82 games 2016-2017.

I would say it’s a lot more likely he could have a 50-60 point season during his 8 year contract considering he has already posted a 50 point season and has not come close to a 100-110 season.

If we are to go somewhere in the middle between your predictions of 50 – 110, being 80 points. Is 80 points worth $8.5 million?

If I was a betting man, I would definitely be comfortable betting that Leon will not be a 50 point player during any year of his contract. If he plays with McZoom full time, he has a legit chance to score 100.

And no, I don’t think he is worth $8.5M. His comps were $7.5M but he had a playoff heater and he has a good agent.

Dee Dee

godot10: Ryan Batty had an article up on OIlernation showing the accelerating steady decline of Lucic’s P/60 and GF/60 (apart from a partial rebound in his contract year when he was looking for a sucker…he found one…to sign him to a 7 year Austin contract, mostly NMC, and heavily buyout protected).
Why are people expecting him to rebound? I would argue that it is likely a coin-flip. Last year was so horrid at 5×5, that he might rebound some, but those lines in Batty’s graphs had a clear stead trend down.
I hope for Lucic to rebound as much as the next guy, but that is far from a sure thing, regardless of how hard he trained to how much weight he lost.

How about better linemates? How about playing with others who are more compatible with his playing style? Players that drive to the net and play in the hard areas, not float around the perimeter or run away from the puck.

How about a team that already has its systems in place and who went on a deep run in the playoffs. It’s not like they are starting at ground zero. The team will be competitive right out of the gate.

Don’t put all the blame on Lucic, his linemates had to shoulder at least some of the blame.

Hunter, you can put me down for 108 points.

Material Elvis

rickithebear,

Ricki, if you are going to compare Draisaitl and Eberle, you need to write Draisaitl’s stats down.

OriginalPouzar

Side: Leon put up 51 points in 72 games played in 2015-2016.

77 points in 82 games 2016-2017.

I would say it’s a lot more likely he could have a 50-60 point season during his 8 year contract considering he has already posted a 50 point season and has not come close to a 100-110 season.

If we are to go somewhere in the middle between your predictions of 50 – 110, being 80 points. Is 80 points worth $8.5 million?

He was essentially a rookie. I believe natural development during late teenage years and early 20s is real and should be taken in to consideration.

Profit

Réal Goudenyéu,

I agree with everything you’re saying here. Completely.

My point was Flames aren’t going anywhere, the one hammer the Flames have is the Olympics and otherwise their hand is weak, so they’re playing that card, Nenshi will win and they’ll eventually play ball after a couple years…

OriginalPouzar

Optimism is like heroin:
I personally would also like to see Connor take a few extra shifts a game on the 4th line.Letestu has said he is better in the pp and pk with less 5×5 time and getting McDavid out vs gritensity level players is a good idea in my opinion.

Maybe but I’m cognizant of his icetime.

I think he led the league in ES ice for forwards last year and I presume he’ll do the same this year.

If extra ice is coming, I think I’d prefer it on the PK – with more open ice out there, I believe he is a weapon on the PK and actually provides a concern for the opposition.

I love seeing him on the PK, and we might need him there, but an extra 90 seconds a game adds up throughout the year.

I’m torn.

godot10:
Ryan Batty had an article up on OIlernation showing the accelerating steady decline of Lucic’s P/60 and GF/60 (apart from a partial rebound in his contract year when he was looking for a sucker…he found one…to sign him to a 7 year Austin contract, mostly NMC, and heavily buyout protected).

Why are people expecting him to rebound?I would argue that it is likely a coin-flip.Last year was so horrid at 5×5, that he might rebound some, but those lines in Batty’s graphs had a clear stead trend down.

I hope for Lucic to rebound as much as the next guy, but that is far from a sure thing, regardless of how hard he trained to how much weight he lost.

Willis posted an article on The Athletic re: strong ES performers at ages 26 and 27 who had their production decline at age 28 – there were only 5 or 6 comparables, however I believe the general consensus was these players rebounded to historical numbers at age 29.

Side

pocession charge: I’m on record stating that the Oilers took all the risk when they signed this contract.Chia said the same thing in his interview.That said, if Leon puts up 50-60 points, something went drastically wrong and the Oilers probably don’t make the playoffs.If he’s healthy, I don’t think that there is much chance of that happening — the kid has real talent, not a flash-in-the-pan.Citing a 50-60 point season is about as fair as saying he’ll get 100-110 points.Realistically, it will be somewhere in the middle.

Leon put up 51 points in 72 games played in 2015-2016.

77 points in 82 games 2016-2017.

I would say it’s a lot more likely he could have a 50-60 point season during his 8 year contract considering he has already posted a 50 point season and has not come close to a 100-110 season.

If we are to go somewhere in the middle between your predictions of 50 – 110, being 80 points. Is 80 points worth $8.5 million?

Material Elvis

Side: You are assuming Leon will achieve what you described.But what if Leon doesn’t? There are no guarantees in sports.Imo, Leon has to produce more than he has in his career yet to warrant the contract he received. What if Leon takes a step back next year, putting up only 50-60 points?

I’m on record stating that the Oilers took all the risk when they signed this contract. Chia said the same thing in his interview. That said, if Leon puts up 50-60 points, something went drastically wrong and the Oilers probably don’t make the playoffs. If he’s healthy, I don’t think that there is much chance of that happening — the kid has real talent, not a flash-in-the-pan. Citing a 50-60 point season is about as fair as saying he’ll get 100-110 points. Realistically, it will be somewhere in the middle.

rickithebear

I georges:

When I looked at free agent Dmen options for summer of 16.
Based on Mact’s chase of HD Dmen
Fayne
#1 in league. victim of the built in abandonment of HD area system (Swarm)

Ference
top 30 1st comp HD numbers first 3 months of the first year.
He was a brilliant leverage D in front of the net.
Got hands and stick under much, much larger oponentds, and walke them around like rag dolls.
Then he wrecked his shoulder.
no leverage ability after that resulting in bad numbers.

the only option was
Sekera.
when I looked at his history.
When facing 1st comp he was a tire fire for his career.
But in a deep enough D group.
only facing 2nd comp or lower he was a top 10 HD dman.

II. Pouzar:
1. HD Shot success is about targeting from distance.
Reflected in Success chart of all shots.
Making Corsi distance one of the 3 most important def measures.

2. Russels ability is the true Def measure.
it is binary.
a. 0% chance shot
b. more than 0% chance shot
he is the best in the game.
These Dmen have have a completely diffrent Shot success chart.

3. Goalie HD save%
a. You want a top 10 HD Save% goalie.for your cup core.
b. you want the best more than 0% Chance shot Save % goalie
measured relative to a league wide 0% chance shot chart.

III. Mcnuge.
Assets Mact generated by:
1. winning Draft lottery ads GM
2. Draft
3. Trade
4. Arranged trade with NHL GM supporting facts
5. UFA acquisition
6. Col ufa Acquisition with NHL GM supporting facts

Nurse #7 2013 Draft
Slepyshev #88 2013 Draft
Broissoit Nov 8 2013 Trade
Pakarinen Jun 16 2014 UFA
Draisatl June 27 #3 2014 Draft
Lagesson June 27 #91 2014 Draft
Fayne july 1 2014 UFA #1 HD Dman
Talbot tarde agreed on Mar 2, 2015
Acquired agreed assets (hemsky 3rd)/ (petry 2nd) per Glen Sather
Mcdavid April 18, 2015 Mact wins lottery as GM

Caggiula May 7, 2016 Col UFA per NHL GM Peter Chiarelli
Benning Aug 27, 2016 Col UFA per NHL GM Peter Chiarelli

XXX-Mcdavid – Cagguila
XXX-Draisatl – Slepyshev
XXX-XXX-XXX
XXX-XXX-XXX
XXX-Pakarinen

XXX – XXX
XXX- Benning
XXX-XXX
Nurse

Tabot
Broisoit

PC:
Maroon – XXX – XXX
Lucic – XXX – XXX
Jokinen – XXX – Puljujarvi
XXX – Letestu – Kassian

Russell – Larsson
Sekera – XXX
Gryba – XXX
XXX

XXX
XXX

IV. Pocession Change
Draisatl – Eberle
hockey Canada, jan cutoff age.

Age 19:
Draisatl
Eberle no NHL games

age 20:
Draisatl
Eberle (2nd comp) 69gm 18G 25A 43P -12

Age 21
Draisatl
Eberle (2nd comp) 78gm 34G 42A 76P +4

Age 22
Draisatl
Ebele (PvP) 48gm 16G 21A 37P -4;
full season pace 82gm 27G 36A 63p -7

age 23
Eberel (PvP) 80gm 28G 37A 65P -11

age24
Eberle (PvP) 81gm 24G 39A 63P – 16

Age 25
Eberle (PvP) 69gm 25G 22A 47P -12

Age 26
Eberle (PvP) 82gm 20G 31A

Forwards who generated
5 full season rates of 20G 47P from 12-13 to 16-17
PvP will be pointed out:
Eberle (PvP)
Pacioretty (PvP)
Toews (PvP)
Wheeler (PvP)
Benn
Carter
Crosby
P. Kane
Kessel
Ovechkin
Pavelski
Seguin
Simmonds
Tavares

Material Elvis

godot10: Calgary Next (the western downtown site) is a non-starter because it requires about $1 billion dollars from the federal government to clean up and rehabilitate the site, before they can begin building on it?Right?

Edmonton got no federal dollars and no provincial dollars.

Yes there is the contaminated site issue. I wasn’t aware of the cost to decontaminate. A billion dollars seems like robbery (kind of like a set of 12 stairs in Toronto costing $150K+) but I’m not a contractor so who knows. They would likely get some federal funding but the province has more important money-wasting schemes at the moment. The power contract cancellations would pay for everything!

leadfarmer

Put me down for 105 points. Gain a few points for beating up on the Vegas knights and improvement from internal sources. Lose a few points from Sekera injury and less standing on his head from Talbot

dustrock

I don’t buy the “hockey players are way tougher than soccer and basketball players” narrative, but I will state for the record that Asensio has one of the all-time great injuries today (for a Champions match!!):

He is out with an infected pimple on his leg after he cut himself shaving his legs.

jdhardy

From where I sit (in Seattle, within viewing distance of Key Arena if not for all the skyscrapers in the way), the Seattle announcement probably has the Flames owners panicking. Offering to chip in $200 MM seems pretty weak compared to OVG paying the full $660 MM, plus $40 MM in transportation improvements, plus $20 MM community fund, plus guaranteed minimum $2.5 MM in rent to the city for the next 39 years, and saving the city having to put $100+ MM in renos into Key in the next decade.

Seattle politics can be frustrating sometimes (and hey, the mayor is resigning in a sex scandal!) but the city played the long game and won big time on the arena (unless, of course, there’s some fine print that blows it all up). Any other team owners trying to fleece their cities are going to have to step it up.

If the Flames’ owners were convinced the ROI on the arena makes sense, they’d build it themselves and reap all of the profits.

godot10

Ryan Batty had an article up on OIlernation showing the accelerating steady decline of Lucic’s P/60 and GF/60 (apart from a partial rebound in his contract year when he was looking for a sucker…he found one…to sign him to a 7 year Austin contract, mostly NMC, and heavily buyout protected).

Why are people expecting him to rebound? I would argue that it is likely a coin-flip. Last year was so horrid at 5×5, that he might rebound some, but those lines in Batty’s graphs had a clear stead trend down.

I hope for Lucic to rebound as much as the next guy, but that is far from a sure thing, regardless of how hard he trained to how much weight he lost.

godot10

pocession charge: I live in Edmonton so don’t have any skin in the game.But I have to ask:What is wrong with CSEC profiting off of a West Village development?The city still wins in that scenario because of the property tax revenue that they will receive.Why not reformulate the plan for the West Village for a shiny new arena and scrap the football stadium and field house for now to lower the overall cost?The arena is the money maker — the other two are money losers.If I was putting $200M into the project, I wouldn’t want to give up control to an entity like the Stampede (or Northlands) either.

Calgary Next (the western downtown site) is a non-starter because it requires about $1 billion dollars from the federal government to clean up and rehabilitate the site, before they can begin building on it? Right?

Edmonton got no federal dollars and no provincial dollars.

Side

pocession charge: Your expectations of Leon (and subsequent fan fall out) is decidedly negative.For starters, he is going to put up big numbers on the first PP unit.Secondly, he should put up better 5v5 numbers playing 2C based on age/perfomance trend.Thirdly, he is going to get time on Connor’s RW and he will put up points there, too.Your comparisons of Horcoff, Poti, Mironov, and Eberle fall well short of actual comparables.Leon has more talent than all of those guys (3 OV pick)and has the work ethic to back it up.I don’t see Leon’s future playing out like the scenario you describe….at all.

You are assuming Leon will achieve what you described. But what if Leon doesn’t? There are no guarantees in sports. Imo, Leon has to produce more than he has in his career yet to warrant the contract he received. What if Leon takes a step back next year, putting up only 50-60 points?

N64

Réal Goudenyéu: After the events of the last 48 hours Nenshi’s position is nothing if not stronger. KK and CSEC bring in Bettman and childishly drop a “negotiation’s over” bomb right as city council recesses for a civic election – that’s blatant electioneering.

CSEC wants their guy in the mayor’s office – but frankly that’s not going to happen. Nenshi’s challengers will split the “against-Nenshi” vote and he’ll win again, mark my words.

The infrastructure that already exists in the East Village makes absolute sense from a planning perspective, it’s not only a pet project for the Mayor. But of course CSEC wants to build it in the West Village so they can reap all the profits of redevelopment. CSEC could have avoided much of this fiasco if they’d come to the table with a proposal that didn’t look like they drew it on the back of napkin the night before the presentation (CalgaryNEXT).

The city is demanding a fair return on investment, and as a tax payer in Calgary I am firmly on the the Mayor’s side in this – and his words to the press today were definitely taking the high road and he’s put KK and CSEC in a difficult position as far as I can see.

I can’t wait until the in camera arena negotiation discussions are released to the public.

From afar looks like Nenshi has his platform AND the Flames have kicked this down the road to better economic days and another round of Olympics bidding and horse trading. Doubt they have much expectations from this election.

Material Elvis

Réal Goudenyéu: After the events of the last 48 hours Nenshi’s position is nothing if not stronger. KK and CSEC bring in Bettman and childishly drop a “negotiation’s over” bomb right as city council recesses for a civic election – that’s blatant electioneering.

CSEC wants their guy in the mayor’s office – but frankly that’s not going to happen. Nenshi’s challengers will split the “against-Nenshi” vote and he’ll win again, mark my words.

The infrastructure that already exists in the East Village makes absolute sense from a planning perspective, it’s not only a pet project for the Mayor. But of course CSEC wants to build it in the West Village so they can reap all the profits of redevelopment. CSEC could have avoided much of this fiasco if they’d come to the table with a proposal that didn’t look like they drew it on the back of napkin the night before the presentation (CalgaryNEXT).

The city is demanding a fair return on investment, and as a tax payer in Calgary I am firmly on the the Mayor’s side in this – and his words to the press today were definitely taking the high road and he’s put KK and CSEC in a difficult position as far as I can see.

I can’t wait until the in camera arena negotiation discussions are released to the public.

I live in Edmonton so don’t have any skin in the game. But I have to ask: What is wrong with CSEC profiting off of a West Village development? The city still wins in that scenario because of the property tax revenue that they will receive. Why not reformulate the plan for the West Village for a shiny new arena and scrap the football stadium and field house for now to lower the overall cost? The arena is the money maker — the other two are money losers. If I was putting $200M into the project, I wouldn’t want to give up control to an entity like the Stampede (or Northlands) either.

Material Elvis

ashley:
Draisaitl with 60 points this year at 2C?I’m afraid to say that I agree with you and that would be upside projection rather than RE for me.

I’m afraid because I am wondering how long it will take the media and fanbase to turn on him like they did Eberle, Horcoff, Poti, and Mironov.I’ll set the O/U at game 38.5.

If that is how the lines play out for most of the year, the fanbase will be begging for a trade by the end of the season which will be impossible unless we retain 3-4 million.Which is never going to happen and would be foolish after a single season of below expected performance.

Good luck Leon.I hope you keep the critics at bay.

Your expectations of Leon (and subsequent fan fall out) is decidedly negative. For starters, he is going to put up big numbers on the first PP unit. Secondly, he should put up better 5v5 numbers playing 2C based on age/perfomance trend. Thirdly, he is going to get time on Connor’s RW and he will put up points there, too. Your comparisons of Horcoff, Poti, Mironov, and Eberle fall well short of actual comparables. Leon has more talent than all of those guys (3 OV pick) and has the work ethic to back it up. I don’t see Leon’s future playing out like the scenario you describe….at all.

thelongdark

Profit:
I’m a small business owner in Calgary, have decent political and business connections at different levels here and my read on the Calgary arena debacle, for those who care is:

– It’s just posturing, as noted before here, but the big difference is I think the Flames ownership group is basically saying “we’re not going to move the team, but we’re not bending over and accepting what Nenshi wants which is a mediocre, cheapish new arena which will be controlled by the Stampede, and which all proximal investment will be controlled by the Stampede Board, and which is right next door to the expensive underground C-Train line they’re building because they have grandiose plans for another Olympics.”

– the correlation of Seattle announcement and Flames statement IS a coincidence

– What isn’t a coincidence is that on the weekend, Nenshi gave a big tour with local journalists of the “new East Village” location for the proposed arena (better known as the Plan B location which Nenshi had decided upon before even seeing Plan A). Nenshi was getting hurt in the current election run-up by being “anti-Flames” and so he put on a big song and dance about how he’s very pro-Flames but that this arena is the only one that makes sense. West downtown location makes no sense, why do we want to play nice with billionaires etc. A class-warefare pitch which works well for his core supporters.

– The Flames statement was more of a reflection of that press junket and stating they’re not going to play ball to get the Olympics bid in-line and if the city wants to do that without an NHL team signed on, good luck. Which could blow up the whole Olympic bid. New arena that the Flames refuse to play in? Hilarious and insanely stupid.

– Nenshi is hugely pompous and I think he thinks he can bully them into playing along and this was a very big (very public) push back to say “we’re not playing along and in fact we’ll wait you out”. I think honestly they’re hoping he loses the election (which likely won’t happen).

– Maybe Nenshi gets another term but the rebellion is building here. People are fairly fed up with the entitlement and arrogance which is coming out of City Hall. It’s a toxic environment and many business people I talk to are actively campaigning against Nenshi.

– So if they can’t make Nenshi lose, they can blow up the Olympic bid. He needs the Flames onside for that. So they’ll wait him out for 2 years until he needs a yes/no on the bid to grab maximum concessions.

TL;DR – Nenshi is trying to force the Flames to play ball to get a new area right beside the new SE C-Train line in order to seal up the Olympics bid. Flames want to control the development of the surrounding area, like in Edmonton and will blow up the Olympic bid to make it happen. And they’re not moving to Seattle or anywhere else, it’s all about Nenshi.

After the events of the last 48 hours Nenshi’s position is nothing if not stronger. KK and CSEC bring in Bettman and childishly drop a “negotiation’s over” bomb right as city council recesses for a civic election – that’s blatant electioneering.

CSEC wants their guy in the mayor’s office – but frankly that’s not going to happen. Nenshi’s challengers will split the “against-Nenshi” vote and he’ll win again, mark my words.

The infrastructure that already exists in the East Village makes absolute sense from a planning perspective, it’s not only a pet project for the Mayor. But of course CSEC wants to build it in the West Village so they can reap all the profits of redevelopment. CSEC could have avoided much of this fiasco if they’d come to the table with a proposal that didn’t look like they drew it on the back of napkin the night before the presentation (CalgaryNEXT).

The city is demanding a fair return on investment, and as a tax payer in Calgary I am firmly on the the Mayor’s side in this – and his words to the press today were definitely taking the high road and he’s put KK and CSEC in a difficult position as far as I can see.

I can’t wait until the in camera arena negotiation discussions are released to the public.

ashley

Hunter, I will go with 96 points.

N64

jake70: HeyLT, do you have any idea who the Oilers might have been targeting at 16 and 33 in that draft had they kept the picks?Barzal went 16, Mitch Stephens was 33. I only saw8 minutes of the 3rd period of Penticton but liked what I saw in those forwards, just thinking if they had taken 2 forwards in 2015 instead of the GR trade, what a nice stable of 2ndary skilled forwards the team would have right now simmering and developing – oh and Barzal and Stephens both shoot right

~ We’d be trading away one of them to Montreal for a 4th line rental to make sure Seattle gets the other ~

Profit

I’m a small business owner in Calgary, have decent political and business connections at different levels here and my read on the Calgary arena debacle, for those who care is:

– It’s just posturing, as noted before here, but the big difference is I think the Flames ownership group is basically saying “we’re not going to move the team, but we’re not bending over and accepting what Nenshi wants which is a mediocre, cheapish new arena which will be controlled by the Stampede, and which all proximal investment will be controlled by the Stampede Board, and which is right next door to the expensive underground C-Train line they’re building because they have grandiose plans for another Olympics.”

– the correlation of Seattle announcement and Flames statement IS a coincidence

– What isn’t a coincidence is that on the weekend, Nenshi gave a big tour with local journalists of the “new East Village” location for the proposed arena (better known as the Plan B location which Nenshi had decided upon before even seeing Plan A). Nenshi was getting hurt in the current election run-up by being “anti-Flames” and so he put on a big song and dance about how he’s very pro-Flames but that this arena is the only one that makes sense. West downtown location makes no sense, why do we want to play nice with billionaires etc. A class-warefare pitch which works well for his core supporters.

– The Flames statement was more of a reflection of that press junket and stating they’re not going to play ball to get the Olympics bid in-line and if the city wants to do that without an NHL team signed on, good luck. Which could blow up the whole Olympic bid. New arena that the Flames refuse to play in? Hilarious and insanely stupid.

– Nenshi is hugely pompous and I think he thinks he can bully them into playing along and this was a very big (very public) push back to say “we’re not playing along and in fact we’ll wait you out”. I think honestly they’re hoping he loses the election (which likely won’t happen).

– Maybe Nenshi gets another term but the rebellion is building here. People are fairly fed up with the entitlement and arrogance which is coming out of City Hall. It’s a toxic environment and many business people I talk to are actively campaigning against Nenshi.

– So if they can’t make Nenshi lose, they can blow up the Olympic bid. He needs the Flames onside for that. So they’ll wait him out for 2 years until he needs a yes/no on the bid to grab maximum concessions.

TL;DR – Nenshi is trying to force the Flames to play ball to get a new area right beside the new SE C-Train line in order to seal up the Olympics bid. Flames want to control the development of the surrounding area, like in Edmonton and will blow up the Olympic bid to make it happen. And they’re not moving to Seattle or anywhere else, it’s all about Nenshi.

ashley

For the record, Jokinen is my favourite FA signing since forever. Veteran skill almost guaranteed to be a value contract before the puck even drops for G1.

ashley

Next year’s cap projections are already ugly. How did we get to Chicago-esque cap hell so quickly?

ashley

I think we paid a little too much for Sekera. He’s a 4 million Dman. Does retaining 1.5M in a trade still allow us to keep Nuge?

jake70

Lowetide

Hey LT, do you have any idea who the Oilers might have been targeting at 16 and 33 in that draft had they kept the picks? Barzal went 16, Mitch Stephens was 33. I only saw 8 minutes of the 3rd period of Penticton but liked what I saw in those forwards, just thinking if they had taken 2 forwards in 2015 instead of the GR trade, what a nice stable of 2ndary skilled forwards the team would have right now simmering and developing – oh and Barzal and Stephens both shoot right 😉

ashley

Draisaitl with 60 points this year at 2C? I’m afraid to say that I agree with you and that would be upside projection rather than RE for me.

I’m afraid because I am wondering how long it will take the media and fanbase to turn on him like they did Eberle, Horcoff, Poti, and Mironov. I’ll set the O/U at game 38.5.

If that is how the lines play out for most of the year, the fanbase will be begging for a trade by the end of the season which will be impossible unless we retain 3-4 million. Which is never going to happen and would be foolish after a single season of below expected performance.

Good luck Leon. I hope you keep the critics at bay.

Romulus Apotheosis

Empty net goals.

McNuge93

russ99: Because the organization places a value on shot quality reduction and most of the advanced stats do not. It’s not all about goals for.

I think both are staying next year and Chiarelli’s Nuge comments are to spur on the player and not publicly trash an asset he wants to move. Unlike MacTavish.

Is MacTavish an asset we want to move? 🙂

Optimism is like heroin

hunter1909,

101 for me please Hunter.

LoDog

hunter1909,

105 please Hunter.

hunter1909

Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March! Everyone/Anyone welcome to enter

Returns for another season!

Bigger and better than ever!

Here’s how to play: SIMPLY enter the amount of points you expect the Edmonton Oilers to get during the 2017-18 season;

At the end of the season the player(s) with the closest total wins!

It’s easy!!

contest open until the opening puck drop of the 2017-18 season

jm363561

Georges:
LT:

– sv% last year was .914 (or .915) not .917

– if you’re projecting the percentage to drop, then you’ll want something lower than .914, not greater

– if you’re projecting GA at 217 and sv% at .916, then SA/GP will be 31.5 compared to 29.5 last season

– that means you’re projecting our defense to go from top 1/3 in the league to bottom 1/3 in the league as measured by shots allowed

– points are very strongly positively correlated to goal differential (something like r=0.97 last season)

– if you see an uptick of 4 in goal differential with a drop of 3 in points, you’re going against the direction of a very strong correlation

Yep, a trés bon point (I am sitting in Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, not Montreal!). I am always amazed anyone takes any notice of Corsi, goal difference is almost perfectly aligned to position in the standings – just look at the end of season tables.

Was just reading that the Oil are one of the top 3 SC bets (along with Pittsburgh and Chicago). Under normal circumstances I would have a sense of impending doom but this is a tight, well led, resilient team and I am quietly hopeful my 93 Death March points are way too conservative. Intangibles matter.

russ99

OriginalPouzar:
If we are moving a LHD with an NMC to make room for Nuge, why is Sekera always proposed and not Russell? Is it because we think Sekera would waive and not Russell?

I think Sekera is >>>> Russell at $1.25M more.

Because the organization places a value on shot quality reduction and most of the advanced stats do not. It’s not all about goals for.

I think both are staying next year and Chiarelli’s Nuge comments are to spur on the player and not publicly trash an asset he wants to move. Unlike MacTavish.

Optimism is like heroin

OriginalPouzar,

IMO opinion … we have other folks that can pk, and I dont want to see McDavid go down to an injury from shot blocking. Now he didn’t quite lead all forwards in TOI but was just 20 seconds away from the leader O’Reilly. McDavid also had a GF/60 of 4.3 against grit level opponents which is almost PP levels of scoring.

russ99

Leon’s numbers at 2C vary depending on who’s on the line with him.

He’s gotten a lions share of his quality shots as the trailer when with McDavid and Hall, so I’m not sure if he’s the best player to carry the puck in and take on the initial effort defensively.

With Lucic as the down low and cycle presence, he needs either a dynamic shooter or someone who’s good on the puck on his right wing.

Eventually the best fit looks to be Strome (when we acquire that scoring RW), but Caggiula or Slepyshev could work too.

OriginalPouzar

Optimism is like heroin:
I personally would also like to see Connor take a few extra shifts a game on the 4th line.Letestu has said he is better in the pp and pk with less 5×5 time and getting McDavid out vs gritensity level players is a good idea in my opinion.

Maybe but I’m cognizant of his icetime.

I think he led the league in ES ice for forwards last year and I presume he’ll do the same this year.

If extra ice is coming, I think I’d prefer it on the PK – with more open ice out there, I believe he is a weapon on the PK and actually provides a concern for the opposition.

I love seeing him on the PK, and we might need him there, but an extra 90 seconds a game adds up throughout the year.

I’m torn.

Chachi

Professor Q: I think they had a rule in place at first which meant rhey couldn’t trade players selected back to their team immediately, either/or tied into the one where they couldn’t accept trades before the draft to either select or not select certain players, but technicalities were put in place to make these moot.

It was complicated and changed quite a bit.

Yeah, there may have been something like that at the beginning of the process. If the idea of the expansion draft was to help Vegas get a good start in the NHL it would make no sense to prevent them from doing whatever they want with the players they select including trading players back to the team they selected them from for a return Vegas feels better serves their team. It looks like common sense won out in the end for a change.