Kinger_Oil.redux: – They are winning the cup this year btw

– If Joki is effective 3W, this year, i.e.better than last year, not as good as 2 years ago, he’s going to be worth a lot more than 1MM

– as for your guess, well that’s your opinion.I’m just stating facts relative to a players value

– If he’s shown to be a worthwhile player, he will cost the Oil a multiple of $1MM: for real

– I thought you said you didn’t like only opinions: I guess only yours?

You’ll notice that when I state opinion it’s clearly stated as such and not as fact.

The key phrase in what I wrote is “my guess”

That’s the difference.

Stating opinion as fact is when things go off the rails.

Also,

Once again I engage in polite conversation and once again you’re a dink.

GMB3: Why would Auvitu being in the lineup shift Russell to 2RD. Chances are Gryba is never the 2RD. Auvitu in the lineup may push Nurse to his right side or Auvitu will play the right side

Auvitu in the lineup presumably means that Gryba is out so they would need someone to play the right side. Nurse is definitely not going to shift to the right side, he’s still learning to be an NHL player on his natural side. The logical choice for the coach is the player that played there last year. I just hope that they would keep Benning at 2RD (if he’s performing well_) and drop Russelll to 3RD but I don’t see it.

OriginalPouzar:
I’m on the pro-Russell train now.

Well, not quite, but I am glad to see that, so far, he’s looked much better (by my eye) on the left side which was predicted. Small sample size and middling competition, however, in each game they’ve played, they have been the top pairing with the “tough minutes”.

I’m simply worried about what happens when Auvitu is in the lineup over Gryba and the potential for Russell to shift to 2RD.

Why would Auvitu being in the lineup shift Russell to 2RD. Chances are Gryba is never the 2RD. Auvitu in the lineup may push Nurse to his right side or Auvitu will play the right side

I’m on the pro-Russell train now.

Well, not quite, but I am glad to see that, so far, he’s looked much better (by my eye) on the left side which was predicted. Small sample size and middling competition, however, in each game they’ve played, they have been the top pairing with the “tough minutes”.

I’m simply worried about what happens when Auvitu is in the lineup over Gryba and the potential for Russell to shift to 2RD.

PerryK: If keeping him means that we have to switch Russel’s sides – No Thanks! Let’s face it, Russell is on this team to stay. That means that we cannot use him as RD. We need to work all other possibilities around that proposition.

Not necessarily. I predict they buyout Russell next summer. His contract is structured so that if they buy him out then, they only pay him 611,000 for the 2018-2019 season. I thought it was a boat anchor until I noticed that. Maybe a brilliant contract in the end.

Pescador:
At a lash,
2018/19 Center- RW depth chart barring trades;
Gord. Yessie Pulloutmy Poolparty
Derman Chancellor. Kammoto Dragon.
Dylan Strome. Sleppski
JJ.Krass / other.
Sadly RNH has to go because Cap.
Lordy, that Russell contract, the more Benning emerges the worse it looks.

The only saving grace of that contract is that when the Oilers desperately need cap space next summer, buying out Russell will save them almost $3.4M (he’ll only cost them 611k next season if he’s bought out. I predict he gets bought out. Lucic and Sekera don’t save the team much if they’re bought out. That might be the way they keep Nuge (along with letting Maroon walk).

Snowman:
Woodguy v2.0,

Yeah Todd getting your name wrong can’t be a good sign. Especially for a big name trade. I know it was just after the game but lordy, you gotta think he knows Kailer’s name and Jesse’s name and I’m pretty damn sure he’s never forgotten Connor’s name..

To be fair, Todd messes up Puljujärvi’s name consistently.

Zelepukin:
my gut feeling is that season we’ll see Nuge’s true value. For the first time in his career he won’t have to drag around Ebs and pick-up the defensive slack for both his wingers, while also facing tough matchups.

– my gut says same . Its such a good point you raise: your an awesome poster

Woodguy v2.0:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

– Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

He’ll be 35 next year.

If he plays 82 this year then he’ll have played 973 games and made over $40MM in his career.

My guess is that a shot at the Cup would probably take precedence over maximizing form $1MM to $2MM or so.

– They are winning the cup this year btw

– If Joki is effective 3W, this year, i.e.better than last year, not as good as 2 years ago, he’s going to be worth a lot more than 1MM

– as for your guess, well that’s your opinion. I’m just stating facts relative to a players value

– If he’s shown to be a worthwhile player, he will cost the Oil a multiple of $1MM: for real

– I thought you said you didn’t like only opinions: I guess only yours?

Woodguy v2.0,

We can agree, though, that spending to the cap in September is incredibly stupid, right?

Compare this to the time that the dementor was still trying to decide who should be on the team after the season had started.
What a different world we are in today!

Woodguy v2.0:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

– Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

He’ll be 35 next year.

If he plays 82 this year then he’ll have played 973 games and made over $40MM in his career.

My guess is that a shot at the Cup would probably take precedence over maximizing form $1MM to $2MM or so.

If Jokinen plays well enough that the organization wants to re-sign him, I can’t see it for being near the league minimum – it will mean he’s had a material positive effect on the team and will clearly require a raise.

Chiarelli is likely looking for “next year’s Jokinen” next spring (and each spring thereafter).

Woodguy v2.0: Well he better bloody well add someone.

Not spending to the cap in 97’s last cheap year is terrible.

Peter spends to the cap every year, I expect this year to be no different.

We don’t know that he’s not spending to the cap even if he doesn’t bring in another player prior to October 4.

He’s got two contract spots (1 if Yamamoto somehow stays).

I believe he is looking to evaluate the current roster and see where he needs improvement, be it RW or RD or somewhere else.

Woodguy v2.0: I’m not sure when he switched back to D though (in regards to his numbers)

I think he’s worth much more as a Dman than foward.

At 758 gp I wouldn’t expect him to give a shit about pre-season.

Its like talking about practice. (“practice??!?!”)

It’s been very well documented that Buff doesn’t give a shit about preseason. He knows he’s not auditioning for a job. But he clearly doesn’t use it as a chance to dust off the cob webs and work on anything you think you’re weak on. We know he hasn’t historically kept himself in shape after the season ends, he’s relying on raw talent. He seems to me like one of though life, never pushing himself.

I would argue that it’s the results themselves that are meaningless in preseason, but there’s always work to be done, and for what he’s paid, he might be professional about it.

godot10: Vegas likely has a negative effect on the cap.It is likely a below average revenue team…negative to cap.And the national TV contracts don’t get any bigger because of Vegas.

The owners were happy with expansion, because they don’t have to share the expansion fees with the players and the share of expansion fees >> share of national TV revenue lost by sharing with one more team.

Players like expansion because of 23 more jobs.

But it is likely a negative to the cap.

Taking in a few Vegas games this year. Ticket prices safely above average. This year anyway they won’t hurt league revenues.

If you had told me during Nuge’s first couple seasons that in a couple years we’d have 2 centres better than him and only through the draft, I would have laughed in your face.

my gut feeling is that season we’ll see Nuge’s true value. For the first time in his career he won’t have to drag around Ebs and pick-up the defensive slack for both his wingers, while also facing tough matchups.

who: Yeah well I think I’ll wait and see what Maroon signs for, if he even signs, before I wave goodbye to Nuge.
Lot of posters here seem to be in a big hurry to get rid of our third best forward. I say keep the strength down the middle. .

You’re absolutely right, as I said earlier in the comments section I would prefer the Oilers kept RNH.
His contract might be too expensive to keep, especially if the Oilers re-sign Maroon.
My guess is 3 years $10M, but I said the same about Russell

Georges: No beef with Buff and no basis other than the little I saw of his defensive play in the pre-season. Just some Sunday banter with godot.

But you went and got numbers, so…

From what I have, he has a slightly positive rel GF% with ATL/WPG (49.7 vs. 48.7) over those years. He’s good wouldn’t be the way I describe him, but he hurts WPG (as I suggested) isn’t right either.

What does seem to hold is that Buff raises the temperature on both sides of the ice relative to his teammates, i.e., goal rates (for and against) go up. That’s why I thought he wasn’t helping his team on the defensive side. He makes up for it through his offensive play but the tradeoff doesn’t get WPG anywhere. They basically break even.

I’m not sure when he switched back to D though (in regards to his numbers)

I think he’s worth much more as a Dman than foward.

At 758 gp I wouldn’t expect him to give a shit about pre-season.

Its like talking about practice. (“practice??!?!”)

Kinger_Oil.redux,

– Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

He’ll be 35 next year.

If he plays 82 this year then he’ll have played 973 games and made over $40MM in his career.

My guess is that a shot at the Cup would probably take precedence over maximizing form $1MM to $2MM or so.

speeds: If they have 2 guys on the IR all time, they’d be cutting into that 4M pretty quickly if they still carry 23 players (maybe they look at carrying 22?).

Maybe the thought is “Let’s play out 40-50 games with a cushion, barring a great opportunity to add someone, and re-assess as time progresses.”???

Well he better bloody well add someone.

Not spending to the cap in 97’s last cheap year is terrible.

Peter spends to the cap every year, I expect this year to be no different.

The Original JDî:
Woodguy Knights’ revenue projection incoming…

You gave me the best TV data, but I still don’t dare guess what they get for local TV.

$10MM?

Seems low, but I don’t dare guess higher.

I think EDM is over $25MM, but not sure.

The Original JDî:
Woodguy Knights’ revenue projection incoming…

But what about their penalty box slot machine prediction. With penalties being on the upswing and all

Pescador: https://oilersnation.com/2017/09/22/report-oilers-start-contract-talks-with-patrick-maroon/

Yeah well I think I’ll wait and see what Maroon signs for, if he even signs, before I wave goodbye to Nuge.
Lot of posters here seem to be in a big hurry to get rid of our third best forward. I say keep the strength down the middle. .

Dustylegnd: Great teams are run like a meritocracy, if Yamamoto is better than the rest of the players available at RW, you play him until he proves otherwise.

Excellent point!

Of course it follows that: How in the world can you “prove” Admiral Yamamoto is better than playoff tested veterans in September? Certainly not in exhibition games.

Dustylegnd: unlike the decade of darkness, why make decisions today that can be delayed till later, it is a fool who exercises an option prior to expiry

Emphasis on who “the fool” is here; whether Edward Woodward in The Wicker Man movie or Lowe+MacT mismanaging the franchise for 15 years.

Woodguy v2.0: Buff’s Relative GF% to team (played toughest comp last 4 years)

20092010-8.81
2010201116.26
20112012-6.09
201220132.11
20132014-12.09
201420151.19
201520167.65
201620170.35

He’s good.Don’t know what happened in 13/14 though.

No beef with Buff and no basis other than the little I saw of his defensive play in the pre-season. Just some Sunday banter with godot.

But you went and got numbers, so…

From what I have, he has a slightly positive rel GF% with ATL/WPG (49.7 vs. 48.7) over those years. He’s good wouldn’t be the way I describe him, but he hurts WPG (as I suggested) isn’t right either.

What does seem to hold is that Buff raises the temperature on both sides of the ice relative to his teammates, i.e., goal rates (for and against) go up. That’s why I thought he wasn’t helping his team on the defensive side. He makes up for it through his offensive play but the tradeoff doesn’t get WPG anywhere. They basically break even.

Larsson ($4) Klefbom ($4)
Sekera ($5.5) Benning ($2.75)
Nurse ($2.25) Russell ($4)
Jones
I’m confident with this d-core at that price point. 18/19 season.

speeds: Maybe the thought is “Let’s play out 40-50 games with a cushion, barring a great opportunity to add someone, and re-assess as time progresses.”???

I think this is exactly the plan.

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Pescador,

– Where is Sek?

– $7MM for Benning + Nurse is way too much for a 2nd pair + 3rd pair D: but if they progress a lot, great

– Strome could be gone next year: who is he?We don’t know.$3.8 is total guess,and doubt he shows he’s worth more than Maroon, who you have at $3.3

– Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

– Besides that, your good!

Aha yes Sekera, forgot that guy.
Luckily with your savings recommendations on Benning & Nurse, I can now afford him.
Appreciate your response,
Bonuses?

who: Agreed. Nuge stays. Keep the best players.

https://oilersnation.com/2017/09/22/report-oilers-start-contract-talks-with-patrick-maroon/

Kinger_Oil.redux: – At 23, he’s applyingto be a 4W, not being asked to score a lot, and just get hopefully get better.

– “No pressure kid, but if you don’t make it, look whose chomping to take your spot”, says OIL MGMT

– I have no doubt in the McT era, he would have been pitched as a “power-forward C”, and mis-cast as the C of the 2nd line, and been thrown out of town by now

– That’s what a good team, depth, intelligent management and the luxury of letting players marinate affords us.

Yes, Khaira has been brought through the Oilers’ system in a proper manner. Too bad there aren’t other players from his draft year.

The Oilers seem to be getting player development correct now, though, as you wrote.

Pescador,

– Where is Sek?

– $7MM for Benning + Nurse is way too much for a 2nd pair + 3rd pair D: but if they progress a lot, great

– Strome could be gone next year: who is he? We don’t know. $3.8 is total guess,and doubt he shows he’s worth more than Maroon, who you have at $3.3

– Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

– Besides that, your good!

speeds:
Maroon-CMD-Puljujarvi
Lucic-LD-Yamamoto
Jokinen-RNH-Strome

Do the Oilers look at that sort of top 9?

Seems like they are pretty high on Caggiula, so would expect him to factor in somewhere, also would be Khaira, Letestu, and Kassian?

I don’t see that line up for this season, at least not consistently game over game.
Seems much more likely for 18/19.
FORWARDS:
Maroon (est. $3.34) McDavid ($12.5) Puljujarvi ($925,000)
Lucic ($6) Draisaitl ($8.5) Yamamoto ($925,000)
Caggiula (est $2.25) Strome (est $3.8) Sleppy (est $2.75)
Jokinen ($1) Khaira ($1) Kassian ($1.95)
DEFENSE:
Larsson ($4). Klefbom ($4)
Nurse ($3.5). Benning ($3.5)
Jones ($925,000). Russell ($4)
GOAL:
Talbot ($4.17) Back up (est $1.83).
CAP HIT:
I have $71.6M roughly, before bonuses. Can someone please help me with my bonus estimate?
Also anyone I under/overpaid?
Thanks

lynn:
Jujhar Khaira is going to be a good player on the ice and in the dressing room.

LT is correct: Jujhar is establishing himself on the Oilers’ roster. He has had an impressive camp, adding more depth to the team. I love his potential and his mature perspective on being a member of the Oilers.

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/post-game-raw–jujhar-khaira/t-277437406/c-52907003

– At 23, he’s applying to be a 4W, not being asked to score a lot, and just get hopefully get better.

– “No pressure kid, but look whose chomping to take your spot”, says OIL MGMT

– I have no doubt in the MacT era, he would have been pitched as a “power-forward C”, and mis-cast as the C of the 2nd line, and been thrown out of town by now

– That’s what a good team, depth, intelligent management and the luxury of letting players marinate affords us.

godot10: There is no cost to fighting Byfuglien in a pre-season game because it is a pre-season game.This is when one can safely take an instigator penalty and send a message to Byfuglien.

All Maroon did was tell Byfuglien was that all he is ever going to do is talk.

If you noticed that during that confrontation, buff was the one that didn’t want to throw down with maroon. Buff was just looking away and didn’t want anything to do with maroon. Definately looked like maroon wanted to go.

godot10: If Khaira, Slepyshev, Puljujarvi, and Caggiula take a step forward this year, and if Benson gets healthy, and with Yamamoto,

Chiarelli can say goodbye to Strome and Maroon next year, and keep Nugent-Hopkins.

Agreed. Nuge stays. Keep the best players.

Guelph down 4-0 in the third to Windsor – Samorukov is -2 with a shot on goal.

Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, I think he’s avoiding that too.

I still have them with ~$4MM in space when you account for the most likely bonuses.

If they have 2 guys on the IR all time, they’d be cutting into that 4M pretty quickly if they still carry 23 players (maybe they look at carrying 22?).

Maybe the thought is “Let’s play out 40-50 games with a cushion, barring a great opportunity to add someone, and re-assess as time progresses.”???

Jujhar Khaira is going to be a good player on the ice and in the dressing room.

LT is correct: Jujhar is establishing himself on the Oilers’ roster. He has had an impressive camp, adding more depth to the team. I love his potential and his mature perspective on being a member of the Oilers.

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/post-game-raw–jujhar-khaira/t-277437406/c-52907003

Woodguy Knights’ revenue projection incoming…

Woodguy v2.0: I’m thinking that if Peter doesn’t add another RHD Auvitu might be better at 3RD than Gryba even when you account for handedness.

They could also run Nurse in the top 4 instead of Benning and put Russell on the RD.

I think he wins 7D out of camp.

Russell at 2RD is a perverse result – he is materially less effective on the right side.

MoneyDoctor: appreciating

Lol… I don’t think this word means what you think it means.

/”stevesmith”

But yes, the exchange rate against USD has improved for CAD.

No paper currency is allowed to appreciate. See the AB minimum wage increase Oct 1, a measure instituted because Gov’ts would rather spend money they don’t have and protect banks over caring for the poor and those on fixed incomes, no matter the political party.

We will be shamed by History.

godot10: There is no cost to fighting Byfuglien in a pre-season game because it is a pre-season game.This is when one can safely take an instigator penalty and send a message to Byfuglien.

All Maroon did was tell Byfuglien was that all he is ever going to do is talk.

No cost other than a potential injury. A broken hand or concussion would be a terrible way to start the year. All for some preseason bs? That doesn’t make sense.

Dustylegnd: Bill Foley claims

I believe his quote was about ticket revenue, not overall revenue. http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/golden-knights-owner-says-ticket-revenues-par-canadiens/

The 15/16 NHL revenue was $4.1B, split 30 ways means about $137M per team. So using those old figures, the Vegas need to contribute that much to keep the cap flat. Suite revenue aside, that means an average ticket price of $186, and never a cold seat all season long.

I’m not sure what all the other inputs are to HRR, but it seems that they might indeed be a drag on the cap.

OriginalPouzar: Those two aren’t going to fight in an exhibition game – what he did was exactly what needed to be done – to show that that type of stuff isn’t going to go without a reaction. Of course Buff isn’t scared – that’s not the point.

Its shocking that anyone would actually question Maroon’s willingness to engage to protect his teamates – 8 fights last year and I believe all of them due to matters related to his teamates.I’m not a huge fighting guy by any means but this is definitely not lost on his teamates.

There is no cost to fighting Byfuglien in a pre-season game because it is a pre-season game. This is when one can safely take an instigator penalty and send a message to Byfuglien.

All Maroon did was tell Byfuglien was that all he is ever going to do is talk.

Dustylegnd:
Except for the part where Bill Foley claims that the Golden Knights are already a top 6 revenue producing team

Foley said “ticket revenue”, not overall:

In an interview with Forbes, Foley said the Golden Knights are “number five, six or seven in terms of ticket revenue in the league,” adding that they’re ahead of the Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers and the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.

Godot’s right that the local TV and radio revenues will be much less in Vegas.

If their arena numbers are that high though, they’re probably not a drag on the cap.

tcho:
Woodguy v2.0,

I agree with your hypotheticals on the kind of dman that Edmonton could use more. However, there is the x factor of the typical Oiler fan. They like players like Jason Smith and Eric Gryba. They hates them players like Eberle, Schultz, and probably Auvitu. This doesn’t help this latter group of players to achieve to their potential imo.

I’d argue that matters only in the extreme (like the end of Jultz in EDM) so its not much of a worry.

Georges: Why would Maroon want to take Byfuglien off the ice?

On the ice, Byfuglien is more dangerous to WPG than he is to their opponents.

Have you seen big Buff “defend”?

(errr… I hope he doesn’t know where I park my van down by the river.)

Buff’s Relative GF% to team (played toughest comp last 4 years)

20092010 -8.81
20102011 16.26
20112012 -6.09
20122013 2.11
20132014 -12.09
20142015 1.19
20152016 7.65
20162017 0.35

He’s good. Don’t know what happened in 13/14 though.

hunter1909: With respect, the Oilers this season want to come out of the gate swinging for the fences, not babysitting/spoilingprospects like Lowe+MacT were infamous for.

Let the kid go back to his junior team. He’s already able to say he’s played in NHL games.

Great teams are run like a meritocracy, if Yamamoto is better than the rest of the players available at RW, you play him until he proves otherwise.

The difference here is that the Oil have a number of players/prospects to choose from these days unlike the decade of darkness, why make decisions today that can be delayed till later, it is a fool who exercises an option prior to expiry

speeds: I’m guessing they are really trying to stay away from an overage for next year, so they not only need to build in enough room for expected bonuses, but also enough room to cover injuries, should they occur.

Yeah, I think he’s avoiding that too.

I still have them with ~$4MM in space when you account for the most likely bonuses.