Wheat Kings and Pretty Things

by Lowetide

In Canadian musical history, there are dozen of songs—Canadian Railroad Trilogy, Snowbird, Helpless, Circle Game, New Mother Nature—that perfectly describe who and what we are. The magic of the Hip comes in the sheer number of songs that speak to us, about us, in our own language. No artist in our lifetime focused so much on the people of this country and the things that bring us together to make us unique. Whoever comes after, has gigantic shoes to fill. RIP Gord Downie. Wheat kings and pretty things, let’s just see what the morning brings.

It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events. The Edmonton Oilers have this habit of getting behind early and not being able to catch up, the club seems to be putting bad single events in an early first period cluster. They’ll figure it out, the numbers suggest this team is far better than 1-4-0 and should be a contender this year. I remain convinced the club is auditioning in too many places and it’s going to cost them. Will it mean finishing outside the playoffs? That’s the calculation being done by Peter Chiarelli this morning.

START! YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 1-4-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 4-1-0, goal differential +4
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-4-0, goal differential -8

You can’t contend with a -8 goal differential in five games, but there’s some evidence this Oilers team has been playing in some bad luck. Would you rather have a strong possession team looking for better goaltending and better decisions from veterans, or a team with a better record getting caved in all areas but goaltending?

Can this team hang around long enough to finish strong? By the time Andrej Sekera gets back into the lineup this club might be at 20 losses or more. I’m not suggesting panic in the streets but this team may need a helping hand from the general manager.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-3-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games 
  • Current results: 1-4-0, 2 points after five games

We’re halfway through the month and at this point the club would have to run the table to meet my stated expectations. The line in the sand (12 points in 10 games) isn’t a terribly high bar but the formula of one year ago isn’t working. Connor McDavid is on a pace to score 98 points (100 a year ago) so he’s living up to his end of the bargain. The goaltending? The group allowed 207 goals in 2016-17, they will allow 312 if they continue along this road all year. Andrej Sekera may be returning to sad state of affairs.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Larsson went 9-10 together after Klefbom was moved down the depth chart. Nurse went 6-7 against Teravainen-Staal-Williams, Larsson 4-7. Nurse looked like he was hurt at the end of the second period but returned for the third. Something to keep in mind for Thursday, sometimes those leg issues become a factor.
  • Klefbom-Russell went 6-5 together in around six minutes together. Klefbom was 2-4 with Larsson. Russell picked up another assist on a really nice play (pass to Jokinen) and is now 1-2-3 on the season. Looks like he’s going to get power-play time (4:31 last night) when Matt Benning isn’t in the lineup. I thought Auvitu would be a better option but Russell got the nod. Oscar is having a tough run here, might need to back him off a little until he finds his game.
  • Auvitu-Gryba were 19-5 together, complete rage in the cage in possession. Gryba went 9-4 against the Skinner line. Auvitu’s Corsi is ridiculous, he was better last night but there’s a lot of chaos.
  • Laurent Brossoit stopped 16 of 21, I don’t think he was especially sharp. I can agree they were 10-bell chances but you need the goaler to save you sometimes and it didn’t happen.
  • Numbers via NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS

  • Connor McDavid seemed to kick out the jams in the second period and get himself into the game. I suspect he’ll be giving defensemen fits on the road trip. I’m reading things like ‘he’s not right’ but six points in five games has him on track with last year’s total and his line is the one kicking out the jams every night.
  • Patrick Maroon took a dumb penalty and got benched, think he was more involved afterward and had a couple of nice chances. He needs to find the range.
  • Kailer Yamamoto earned another game and really unleashed some shots last night. I don’t know if he hangs around all year but my goodness he’s a talented young player. Slepyshev is coming on now, we’ll see if Leon makes the road trip.
  • Zack Kassian barely played. Flu?
  • Ryan Strome had easily his best game. Not even close. Fabulous goal and an even better assist.
  • Jussi Jokinen has joined the battle. Flat out lovely pass for the Strome goal.
  • Anton Slepyshev is finding the range now, suspect we’ll see him move up the depth chart soon.
  • Milan Lucic made a poor decision on the power play that was the back breaker in the game, scored a nice goal later in the third period.
  • Brad Malone played well enough to get another game, bad news for Jujhar Khaira.
  • Iiro Pakarinen also played pretty well, suspect we’ll see him in the lineup on the road trip depending on the health of Leon Draisaitl and Drake Caggiula.
  • Mark Letestu scored on the power play. He’s going to get a good contract next summer  if he can pop 16 goals again this season.

HAMMER TIME

I’m not going to hammer on this team today. For me, much of the story has to do with single events becoming major stories in-game. The bigger picture, the part that has come to be known as process, looks strong for this team warts and all. You can’t pull Leon Draisaitl and Andrej Sekera out of a lineup and remain complete, and you can’t win when the opponent’s goalie is better than your man. I don’t know that the Oilers are going to win the division or even make the playoffs, but do know they are better than their record as we stand here today.

If we’re looking for a fix, that’s where Peter Chiarelli comes in. As stated many times on this blog, I don’t agree with the massive number of auditions for what should be a contending team. Darnell Nurse/Matt Benning in a top 4D role, Yohann Auvitu as a regular, Kailer Yamamoto in a feature role, full auditions for Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula.

This team is 1-4-0. All of the clubs Edmonton is chasing will have similar two week runs during the season. The key for the Oilers is to arrive at Game 20 with 10 wins. I don’t know if they can get there without some help from the general manager. 2RHD, 2R. The song remains the same. Oscar Klefbom, Patrick Maroon, Milan Lucic, all of these men did things that cost the team last night, but they also need to be part of the solution. I don’t think these men are lazy and don’t believe they forgot how to play the game. Sometimes nothing rhymes for a reason, but the only one I buy this morning is this team has too many auditions happening at the same time. I don’t think challenging the heart of this team makes sense in any way. It’s not about the heart, it’s about what’s knocking around in heads.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, a melancholy day for all Canadians. Dammit Gord Downie. Scheduled to appear, TSN1260:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Last night’s game and what should Peter Chiarelli do?
  • Yukon Jack, 100.3 The Bear. RIP Gord Downie.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. The CFL playoff picture is coming into view. Is this the year crossing over works?
  • Minnia Feng, The Athletic. Minnia wrote an article about Kailer Yamamoto and his love of the game. We’ll chat about it.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Damn Yankees!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes!

 

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Woodguy v2.0

Kinger_Oil.redux: – this is just trolling IMO. You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

You wrote this:

– this is just trolling IMO. You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

In response to a conversation that was exclusively about those trades only.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Woodguy v2.0: and you should really not comment on things when you don’t have the information about what the conversation is.

Do us both and everyone else here a favour and stop replying to me.

I stopped replying to you when you asked.

– ???

– This is what I was replying to: “The amount of hoops you and other people jump through to justify obviously asset draining moves is amazing”.

– Clearly the coup detente didn’t work… Cheers

Woodguy v2.0

Material pocession:
Woodguy v2.0,

Solid post WG.The only point that I would contest would be Eberle’s value from 2015 on.I don’t think that he was an A asset in the eyes of the other GM’s in the league.In this NHL, defensive prowess is highly regarded and that is Eberle’s weakness. I think Chia traded a B asset for a C asset on that one.With Hall, I think he lost value but again not massive value.Chia traded an A asset for an A/B asset.He squandered some of the cap space with his long term deals.

I understand that line of thinking with Eberle and it has merit.

My contention is that he consistently produces at a top line rate.

Since the last lockout he’s 22nd in the NHL in 5v5 goals scored.

Here’s the top 25.

Player G
COREY.PERRY 86
MAX.PACIORETTY 84
PATRICK.KANE 84
VLADIMIR.TARASENKO 83
ALEX.OVECHKIN 81
JEFF.SKINNER 80
SIDNEY.CROSBY 80
TYLER.SEGUIN 80
JOE.PAVELSKI 77
PHIL.KESSEL 74
JAMIE.BENN 73
JOHN.TAVARES 73
BRAD.MARCHAND 70
BRANDON.SAAD 70
JAMES.NEAL 68
RICK.NASH 68
SEAN.MONAHAN 66
EVGENI.MALKIN 65
PATRICE.BERGERON 64
TOMAS.TATAR 64
JORDAN.EBERLE 63
MATT.DUCHENE 63
NIKITA.KUCHEROV 63
BRENT.BURNS 62

He was also one of the few forwards last year to put up a 50%+ GF% when McDavid wasn’t on the ice last year.

The Oilers also scored at identical rates when either Eberle or Draisaitl was with McDavid last year when you control for the LW.

He may not have quite as much value as other “A” assets, but he certainly has more value than a Strome and cap space.

Woodguy v2.0

Lowetide:
WG: I absolutely jumped in mid-discussion. Enjoyed it a lot!

*shakes fist* & thanks.

OmJo

Woodguy v2.0,

*Slow clap*

Looking at our cap… $2.3M of cap space is being used on Korpse and Pouliot this season. Next season, $1.3M on Pouliot. $4M on Russell. $6M on Lucic. That’s $11.3M wasted in cap space next season 3 players until 2021, 2 of which are on our roster due to poor contracts.

If Chiarelli is making these moves to make cap space, how much of that is due to his poor performance with managing the cap to begin with?

Material Elvis

Woodguy v2.0,

Solid post WG. The only point that I would contest would be Eberle’s value from 2015 on. I don’t think that he was an A asset in the eyes of the other GM’s in the league. In this NHL, defensive prowess is highly regarded and that is Eberle’s weakness. I think Chia traded a B asset for a C asset on that one. With Hall, I think he lost value but again not massive value. Chia traded an A asset for an A/B asset. He squandered some of the cap space with his long term deals.

Woodguy v2.0

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Woodguy v2.0,

– this is just trolling IMO.You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

and you should really not comment on things when you don’t have the information about what the conversation is.

The conversation is specifically about those trades.

But jump right in a bitch about things that weren’t there like you always do.

Troll?

Do us both and everyone else here a favour and stop replying to me.

I stopped replying to you when you asked.

Woodguy v2.0

New Improved Darkness: Woodguy, you’re one of the long straws here, but this is a rookie error on your part.

A gentlemen also calculates the cap differential on the before/after, because for a cap team, that differential was either spent before, or will be spent afterwards.

On something.

Perhaps of value.

The Oilers protected their 4C and 4RW in the expansion draft

The coupon wasn’t needed

The cap was addressed in my last post as its a fair question, but it wasn’t the subject.

The subject was assets of value.

Having good players at good contracts trumps cap space.

Especially when you hand out long term money like Peter does.

Woodguy v2.0

All,

I was arguing w/ BoP specifically about the particular trades in question as they all involved “A” assets.

I was not arguing Chiarelli’s entire trade/signing record with the Oilers.

So everyone demanding a full accounting of Chia’s moves was not understanding the genesis of the conversation. There are many facets to what he has done, this concerns top end assets.

The cap space question is fair and I’ll address it at the end.

What spurred the whole thing was that I wrote that when EDM won the McDavid lottery it was my position that they had a top 5, and maybe a top 3 asset/player core in the NHL and were poised to kill it.

“A” grade assets that they had draft day 2015:
McDavid- All world talent AAA asset
Hall – Top 5 LW in the league
Eberle – 1st line RW
RNH – low end 1C, good 2C
Draisaitl – projecting to be 1C/2C material
Klefbom – well on his way to quality top pairing Dman
16 in a very deep draft that was like a top 10 in most drafts – Ek was available for their pick on top of their list
32 in a very deep draft that was like 15-20 in a regular draft – RHD was a primary need as exemplified by Chiarelli’s consistent and Bob said Carlo was their probable choice there.

That’s your top 6 set for a long time with your 1LW set and a very good RD who might be a 2/3 one day.

Those are among the toughest pieces to get. High end players are not available for free except at the draft.

Now all those A assets have turned into:
McDavid
Drai – paid like a top 10 NHL talent no clue if he is top 25 NHL talent yet
RNH – low end 1C, good 2C
Klefbom – top pairing Dman
Larsson – 1RD – good 2/3 Dman
Strome – 3C/2RW

So instead of having all top 6F positions fixed they have 3.ish.

They have a 1RD who is a 2/3 Dman and that is better than before, but what is gone is much, much heavier in value.

This team has not won the goal share with McDavid off the ice for his career and Chiarelli’s time here and it looks to be happening again.

There is no question in my mind that not making those moves has the Oilers with a +50%GF with McDavid off the ice.

Klef didn’t need a Larsson, he just needed competence in a partner which could have been had through free agency or a lesser trade than Hall.

In 15/16 Klef had a +1.1% RelGF away from McDavid – The Oilers goal share without McDavid on the ice was worse when Klef was off than when he was on.

in 16/17 with Larsson Klef had a -4.8% Rel GF away from McDavid – The Oiler goal share without McDavid on the ice was worse when Klef was on than when he was off.

He didn’t need to spend a Hall to get a partner for Klef.

There is no argument for the Reinhart trade. Almost the entire Oilogosphere derided it the second it happened and all the Isles fans rejoiced.

Eberle is a pure buydown. We’ll see if Strome can stick in the top 6 and produce.

As for the cap space:

Saved 1.8M Hall-> Larsson
Saved 3.5M Eberle -> Strome

Total – 5.3MM

That’s about the Oilers cap space this year if they leave JP in the AHL all year and he isn’t available for bonuses.

Cap space today $8MM
Bonuses available on current roster:
McDavid 2.85
Sleppy .600
Caggiula .425
Benning .300
Nurse .850

Total possible bonuses $5.025

Probable? Just the TOI bonuses (aside from McDavid) as far as I can see and they’re never that that much.

If you want to get into Chiarelli’s whole body of work I have lots of good things to say and some bad things about long term contracts.

If you want to talk about how he’s handled his grade A assets?

Its a massive loss of value and its not close.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Chachi: Because you wrote this:

“It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3
I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.
I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.
I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.
Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.”

when I read what you post I read it through that lens. Too bad.

– Thanks for the reminder of this. I really shouldn’t engage him. This thread really went off the deep end with some crazy talk IMO…

– I still enjoy discussing the Larsson Hall, or looking at the moves Chia has done and all that stuff.

If we are really bringing up the Reinhart trade again, it wasn’t bad in hindsight. It was terrible in hindsight- an offense egregious enough that it could affect one’s job security.

In real time it was bad. We had the deepest draft in a dozen years and I understand the argument that McDavid’s arrival moved the timeline to compete forward, but many people pointed out how Reinhart had been passed on the Islanders’ blueline depth chart by the likes of Pulock and others and that Islanders bloggers and reporters were alluding to footspeed issues at the AHL level. Trading the picks wasn’t the issue–if they had landed Dougie Hamilton, who isn’t even that amazing defensively but is certainly dynamic in moving the puck the other way, but instead they swung and missed on an AHL player that they thought could cover the bet. There were yellow flags all over the place on their target.

Bob Green, who possibly spearheaded the trade, or at least was a supporter of it, said he hadn’t seen him play much in Bridgeport but of course had seen him plenty with the Oil Kings. Outdated intel.

And for those who are bringing up the other trade, if Chiarelli had traded 16 and 33 for Hamilton, would Hall for Larsson have still happened?

This post is not meant to be an attack on Chiarelli overall. He has made some very good moves with Talbot and Maroon and Kassian, and a good one with Sekera. I still think he is an average NHL GM–that opinion has not changed yet. I like to look at the totality of his record and to me there’s a bunch of good and a bunch of bad. I know last year after the team had some success my opinion was unpopular, but I’m not changing it because of a slow start this year. I still think he’s smart and competent and he can figure it out; in my opinion he’s just never been the rock star some people think he is (because standings).

Mr. D.

OriginalPouzar,

Many times the D will direct the back checkers off their coverage.

hags9k

pocession charge:
People who are knocking Lucic for Klefbom’s fuck up on the offensive blue line have obviously not played hockey before.That was not a bad pass.It might not have been perfectly on Klefbom’s tape but in the NHL you are expected to handle a pass like that.He booted the ball, plain and simple.

Not to nitpick one sigular moment but in the postgame the head coach referred to it as a hand grenade, and he has played hockey.

If Klefbom controls that pass it is a great play by him, because it was off time, in his feet, and a lazer from 15 feet.

Where was the other D to be there and take that rim? I’m not sure how big Looch ended up back there in an unfamiliar situation.

The rimmed pass by Letestu that preceded it was nothing to write home about either, he might have passed up a shot on net.

Professor Q

New Improved Darkness,

And perhaps not the best choice of words?

Snowman

New Improved Darkness: Woodguy, you’re one of the long straws here, but this is a rookie error on your part.

A gentlemen also calculates the cap differential on the before/after, because for a cap team, that differential was either spent before, or will be spent afterwards.

On something.

Perhaps of value.

They traded away two high picks for $832,500 in salary cap? Is that what you’re trying to say? They got nothing for Reinhart. They lost him to expansion. They traded away two very valuable assets and got less than 1M in cap savings.

There is no redeeming the Reinhart trade. None.

You can’t even squint and look at it sideways to kinda see cap relief or some other silver lining. It was a big time mistake.

fifthcartel

New Improved Darkness,

This is really reaching. It was a brutal trade that yielded very little in terms of value. Losing Reinhart instead of Khaira or Brossoit really isn’t much of a difference.

I’m a huge believer that Chiarelli has made three incredibly bad trades and the roster suffers because of it. Those moves and the corresponding ones caused incredible damage to the Oilers’ long term look.

Arguing cap savings when you’re trading Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle is pretty ridiculous. Using those cap savings on Milan Lucic and Kris Russell is even more ridiculous.

You’d think after trading the 16th and 33rd picks in the 2015 draft, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle that there wouldn’t be any concerns on defense, but that’s where we are. Meanwhile the Oilers’ division rival has 2 top-four RHD for only picks. If only Edmonton could have gotten one of those!

New Improved Darkness

Woodguy v2.0:
Bag of Pucks,
No longer on roster: Reinhart
Return for Reinhart 0

Woodguy, you’re one of the long straws here, but this is a rookie error on your part.

No longer on roster: Reinhart
Return for Reinhart: one nullified Los Vegas roster-rape coupon

A gentlemen also calculates the cap differential on the before/after, because for a cap team, that differential was either spent before, or will be spent afterwards.

On something.

Perhaps of value.

OriginalPouzar

I’m petrified of a Chris Kelly signing due to the PK.

leadfarmer

I’m worried what kind of moves a desperate Chia would make.

sliderule

My captain,my captain is starting to look old at a very young age.

Methinks that there is more going on behind the oiler curtains than we know, that is aging him fast

Kinger_Oil.redux

Bruce McCurdy: More than a 0 or a 1. It’s a 2×2 matrix: major or minor contributions to Grade A or Grade B scoring chances.

– True, that A B does provide more granularity, I didn’t mean to mis-represent. I like reading his analysis: but in Chess or Backgammon (I’m not comparing them to hockey), each move effects the outcome to a different degree either positively or negatively. This is quantifiable.

– i.e. Chessmaster makes huge blunder in one move, and goes from 55% probablilty to 45%.

– Its not just : “he made one bad move, but the other 45 before were good or very good moves”

– Hockey doesn’t have this ability: to assign value to the contribution of each “move”

T0ML

Cool thanks, thats about what i remembered. Basically I was doing goalie coaching for a couple years and the rink I was at asked me to pick up a Level 1, I did that. Took level 2 last year. Registered for 3 this year. I couldnt remember if it was one or two years from 2->3. I believe I need to do SafeSport regardless (Good for 2 years I believe). Thanks for the info!.

VOR: Spencer I would need to know more in order to help. I am assuming you are Track 1, Level 2 at the moment. So when were you certified as a Level 2 and when does that expire? If you are now eilgible to take Level 3 for the first ime (and not recertification) my understanding is you have two years to complete the level from the time you become eligible. Once you have completed the level then you need to recertify within 2 years. I don’t believe it makes any difference if you are coaching in those two year windows or not. You needed the coaching experience to be eligible to take Level 3 but from then on there isn’t as I understand it any requirement to maintain active coaching. Though I am not sure why you would take Level 3 if you weren’t going to coach and if you ever want to be Level 4 you have to actively coach and gain more experience at Level 3. I hope that helps but you really need to check with usahockey.

Chachi

Cassandra:
Chachi,

You should go look up what I wrote after the Reinhart trade.That trade wasn’t awful in hindsight, it was catastrophically stupid at the time, as everyone should have known, and some did.

It hardly matters.There is nothing left to talk about.Kinger asked me why I didn’t think Larsson was a #1 D, as if I hadn’t given my reasons a hundred times before.

It’s all been said, and one side has never learned to listen, while the other is tired of repeating itself.All that is left is to chase the remaining good players out of town, if the Oilers lose, or blame Hall and Eberle, if the Oilers win.

And this last is what gets me more than anything else.

Because you wrote this:

“It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3
I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.
I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.
I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.
Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.”

when I read what you post I read it through that lens. Too bad.

commonfan29

The Oilers are 4 points out of a playoff spot this morning.

If they’re any further back than that at the end of this month, history tells us it’s over.

Sobering.

GMB3

godot10: With this coach, the systems don’t change.The systems are fine.The players have to change.

He even said so coming into the job in Edmonton.He doesn’t care who the players are in the jerseys.And that they will get different players if they have to.

And that is a hilarious take by a head coach because it’s much easier finding a coach who can coach the style of team you have than it is to find skilled players

Cassandra

Chachi,

You should go look up what I wrote after the Reinhart trade. That trade wasn’t awful in hindsight, it was catastrophically stupid at the time, as everyone should have known, and some did.

It hardly matters. There is nothing left to talk about. Kinger asked me why I didn’t think Larsson was a #1 D, as if I hadn’t given my reasons a hundred times before.

It’s all been said, and one side has never learned to listen, while the other is tired of repeating itself. All that is left is to chase the remaining good players out of town, if the Oilers lose, or blame Hall and Eberle, if the Oilers win.

And this last is what gets me more than anything else.

Bruce McCurdy

Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’ve talked about this before: In backgammon, the break-through in analysis was the ability to calculate for each move “equity won or loss”.

– Its the same issue in hockey.Some errors cause greater loss in equity (or positive).We are still at the rudimentary stage of this in Hockey.Ricki’s box might help advance it. …

– To assign a 0 or 1 to each action, as your colleague does, it’s certainly better than no data, but the weight of each assignment on actual results isn’t equal distribution.

– LT alludes a little to this when he talks about single events.All corsi is not equal, all saves are not equal, in terms of skill/luck/impact.It’s not enough to say that “it evens out”

More than a 0 or a 1. It’s a 2×2 matrix: major or minor contributions to Grade A or Grade B scoring chances.

VOR

T0ML:
So i know we have some coaches here … Question regarding Levels in USA hockey in case anyone knows.

Im currently a Level 2 coach, was registered for Level 3 class last sunday …. I got the dates mixed up .. going from 2 to 3, do I *need* to get level 3 done this year? Or is it possibly to wait until next year to take it?Im not currently coaching, have it more because i wanted to.Just dont want to lose the progress ive got.Without driving ~2 hours on a saturday to take one of the last two in my state …

Thanks,
-Spencer

Spencer I would need to know more in order to help. I am assuming you are Track 1, Level 2 at the moment. So when were you certified as a Level 2 and when does that expire? If you are now eilgible to take Level 3 for the first ime (and not recertification) my understanding is you have two years to complete the level from the time you become eligible. Once you have completed the level then you need to recertify within 2 years. I don’t believe it makes any difference if you are coaching in those two year windows or not. You needed the coaching experience to be eligible to take Level 3 but from then on there isn’t as I understand it any requirement to maintain active coaching. Though I am not sure why you would take Level 3 if you weren’t going to coach and if you ever want to be Level 4 you have to actively coach and gain more experience at Level 3. I hope that helps but you really need to check with usahockey.

Chachi

Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’d put Larsson in the top-17 RHD in the league, yes over the last 2 years.I pick top-17 because Hall is the 17th most productive LW last 2 years.I believe Larsson also has considerable upside

– Larsson is also deployed as a #1 D, in terms of usage at evens.

– What’s absurd?

I feel like this needs to be posted more often as a reminder:

“It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3
I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.
I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.
I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.
Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.”

Chachi

jtblack:
I got to watch the Canadian Womens Olympic team last night.They are playing AAA Midget teams across Alberta over the next few months.

I came away from the game thoroughly impressed with their skill, skating and passing. Maybe the Oilers can’t put 2 passes together, but the Womens team can put 4 and 5 together.

If any of you get a chance, go watch them!

This is a great recommendation. I also saw them play a Midget AAA team a couple of weeks ago and they put on a great show. It is a fun pure hockey experience.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Cassandra: Who is trolling who?You routinely call Larsson a #1 defensemen.Which is absurd.

– I’d put Larsson in the top-17 RHD in the league, yes over the last 2 years. I pick top-17 because Hall is the 17th most productive LW last 2 years. I believe Larsson also has considerable upside

– Larsson is also deployed as a #1 D, in terms of usage at evens.

– What’s absurd?

russ99

Lowetide: Absolutely true, but we should also mention the acquisition of Cam Talbot, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian and Matt Benning. Chiarelli’s trades of Hall and the two picks (15, 33) are a big factor in the current scenario but it’s important to acknowledge the entire record.

Also, offensive/goal scoring talent isn’t the only kind of talent on a hockey club.

Admit it, this is all about that mythical three scoring lines rushing up and down the ice, “Oilers Hockey”, et. al. and not about how cup-winning hockey rosters are constructed in the real world.

I understand the gripes about this year’s roster, and they could very well be real and scary. But holding onto the Hall trade with claws out because of playing style preferences and/or calling a coach with a Stanley Cup ring ineffectual or mediocre is a bit petty.

Wins are wins. Last year we won a lot of games and were a held goalie pad away from winning two playoff series with this style of hockey, and a heavy Chiarelli-style team. I’d think those results deserve some patience this year as things work themselves out.

Maybe not 40 games of patience but sure as hell not just 5 games.

jtblack

I got to watch the Canadian Womens Olympic team last night. They are playing AAA Midget teams across Alberta over the next few months.

I came away from the game thoroughly impressed with their skill, skating and passing. Maybe the Oilers can’t put 2 passes together, but the Womens team can put 4 and 5 together.

If any of you get a chance, go watch them!

Material Elvis

Pouzar: No access to twitter.

But if it’s goal 5 then it’s Larsson/Nurse is it not?

Anyway, trailer is the Center’s responsibility. If Nuge was hurt or gassed he should have taken a hooking penalty. I fail to see how Larsson is to blame here, he is engaged with the puck carrier and now he supposed to pick up the defenseman too?

Yes, it was Nurse and Larsson on that play. You are correct — Larsson was engaging the puck carrier and there is no way that he can do that and cover off the defenceman, too.

T0ML

So i know we have some coaches here … Question regarding Levels in USA hockey in case anyone knows.

Im currently a Level 2 coach, was registered for Level 3 class last sunday …. I got the dates mixed up .. going from 2 to 3, do I *need* to get level 3 done this year? Or is it possibly to wait until next year to take it? Im not currently coaching, have it more because i wanted to. Just dont want to lose the progress ive got. Without driving ~2 hours on a saturday to take one of the last two in my state …

Thanks,
-Spencer

Cassandra

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Woodguy v2.0,

– this is just trolling IMO.You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

Who is trolling who? You routinely call Larsson a #1 defensemen. Which is absurd.

JimmyV1965

Cassandra:
Woodguy v2.0,

Great post.I think all of this is obvious and beyond dispute.And this is why the fracture is so deep.The two sides do not share a single reference point around which they could have a discussion.

I don’t think this is true at all. Chia has completely remade this team from a tire fire into a legit good team. He had a vision of what he wanted this team to look like and made it happen. We are better today because of it. On the other hand, his negotiating skills are awful. He gets his lunch eaten in big trades and he should be forbidden from negotiating contracts.

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy v2.0:
Bag of Pucks,

If Chia traded 16 and 32 for a player worth protecting, they would have protected him.

And stop throwing FA signings on top like they matter.

The amount of hoops you and other people jump through to justify obviously asset draining moves is amazing.

Its simple.

Hall got traded for Larsson
Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
Eberle got traded for Strome.

Out:Hall, Eberle, Eriksson-Ek, Carlo
In: Reinhart, Larsson, Strome

No longer on roster: Reinhart
Return for Reinhart 0

Net:
Out – Hall, Eberle, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
In – Larsson, Strome.

I will never move off of this position because its the truth and no amount of crediting what McDavid does for this team to other players will every sway me from this position.

No amount of talk about“culture” will ever sway me either.

The same people who played the “culture” card played it again today.

Spector calling out the Oiler’s culture.

The same thing they did when Hall was here.

Its the same problem. – not enough talent and can’t get a save.

Never was culture, isn’t culture today,

Its talent and stopping pucks.

Teams that win have good culture despite the personalities (see Potvin, Dennis)

Teams that lose have bad cultures (see every shitty team with great guys on it)

I will not discount your premise in entirely because it is based in fact (generally) but its only part of the story I believe.

Firstly, just because Staufer says those are the two players we were going to draft doesn’t make it so – I like Bob and put stock in to his info but he’s also the guy that was predicting Nuge on the wing this season.

A few pieces of the puzzle are missing though, I think:

– Hall plus Eberle = $12M and Strome plus Larsson = $6.5M – that cap space was/is an asset and, no matter how we believe it was spent (Lucic, Russell, Drai, whoever) it was part of the deals

– If you are going to include non-roster players in your analysis as assets out then why can’t we include trades where non-roster draft picks were exchanged for the acquisitions of Talbot, Kassian and Maroon?

Kinger_Oil.redux

Woodguy v2.0,

– this is just trolling IMO. You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

gregsaint

Watched goal 5 again…its really just RNH not being able to keep up with the D-Man who scores, he loses the race in the neutral zone…with the D-man moving up ice very fast, while the 2 forwards slow up, it switches the 2on2 to the other side, and it gets everyone messed up on who should be covering who.

Really tough play for the D to figure out. Larsson could have shifted to playing his side as a 2 on one? Maybe?
Anyway, pretty sure the goal doesn’t happen if RNH was able to go full speed on the play.

JimmyV1965

Woodguy v2.0:
Bag of Pucks,

If Chia traded 16 and 32 for a player worth protecting, they would have protected him.

And stop throwing FA signings on top like they matter.

The amount of hoops you and other people jump through to justify obviously asset draining moves is amazing.

Its simple.

Hall got traded for Larsson
Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
Eberle got traded for Strome.

Out:Hall, Eberle, Eriksson-Ek, Carlo
In: Reinhart, Larsson, Strome

No longer on roster: Reinhart
Return for Reinhart 0

Net:
Out – Hall, Eberle, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
In – Larsson, Strome.

I will never move off of this position because its the truth and no amount of crediting what McDavid does for this team to other players will every sway me from this position.

No amount of talk about“culture” will ever sway me either.

The same people who played the “culture” card played it again today.

Spector calling out the Oiler’s culture.

The same thing they did when Hall was here.

Its the same problem. – not enough talent and can’t get a save.

Never was culture, isn’t culture today,

Its talent and stopping pucks.

Teams that win have good culture despite the personalities (see Potvin, Dennis)

Teams that lose have bad cultures (see every shitty team with great guys on it)

Ouch!!! The truth is painful.

OriginalPouzar

I mentioned in a thread a few says ago about the possibility that maybe fact that the team is winning the percentage of HDSC battle isn’t really reflective of what’s going on on the ice.

The possibility that maybe the HDSC this team has been giving up are “elite” high danger scoring chances.

The coach acknowledged this exact fact a few times throughout his media avail today – we aren’t giving up alot of HDSC but those that we are giving up are “5-ball chances” due to mistakes.

Kinger_Oil.redux

jtblack,

– In hindsight the Griff trade was terrible: but it was two magic beans, for a more mature one that didn’t develop further.

– Since Hall has been traded, he’s the 17th in points for LW: a very good winger

– I’d put Larsson around the top-15 of RHD: and much more impactful to team, based on position than Hall (whose production was replaced and then some)

– I doubt a Larsson for Hall trade gets done today, even considering the cap space

*sorry LT for bringing it up: he started it!!!

gregsaint

Pouzar,

The D-man had him beat to the goalie at the blueline…RNH was not going to catch him, best he could have hoped for was to slash/hook him from behind. On top of that, he probably thought “It’s a 2 on 2, Larsson’s got him, I’ll pick up the trailer”

stush18

jtblack:
Chachi,

Woodguy. I do agree with your assessment. ”
Hall got traded for Larsson
Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
Eberle got traded for Strome.

BUT.You are only looking at his worst dealls.The glaring horrendous trade is the Reinhart deal. You can place the Reinhart deal besdie any trade and it will make it look Lopsided.

Out – Gernat,Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
In – Maroon

Out – Scrivens, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
In – Kassian

The Reinhart deal was terrible the day it was made, especially Given how deep the 2015 Draft was.2015 Draft was kind to Edm ans it shouldhave been Epic had PC not panicked.

The negative attitude around here is making it easy for posters to see the holes in the roster.

Talbot > 57th, 79th, 184th
Kassian > scrivens
Maroon (salary retained) > gernat

Clearly bleeding assets.

And woodguys position is that chiarelli loses on big deals, and that he wins little ones. But ignoring the wins at massive positional deficits like defense and goaltending from when he started is making things seem worse than they are.

Pouzar

pocession charge: To me, it looks like the defencemen (Klef and Larsson) back up at the blue line and give up too much gap on the zone entry.

No access to twitter.

But if it’s goal 5 then it’s Larsson/Nurse is it not?

Anyway, trailer is the Center’s responsibility. If Nuge was hurt or gassed he should have taken a hooking penalty. I fail to see how Larsson is to blame here, he is engaged with the puck carrier and now he supposed to pick up the defenseman too?

stush18

Bag of Pucks: A depreciating asset is still an asset. You can’t just ignore it on the ledger entirely.

And points still matter. He put himself into a position to score that goal, get that assist.

Can we make something saying Cassandra can only come here when we’re winning?