Game Seven 2017-18: Oilers at Flyers

by Lowetide

One of the things Todd McLellan needs is a real second line. A year ago, Milan Lucic (23 goals), Nuge (18) and Jordan Eberle (20) gave the team a pretty solid trio of offensive options behind the McDavid line (which totaled 86 goals). In the last few games, RNH and Milan Lucic have found success with Ryan Strome. The line has four goals so far (McDavid-Leon-Maroon have five) and maybe there’s enough chem for sustain. Spreading out the offense is the ideal scenario, Kailer Yamamoto’s audition continues today and that may well be a key to success.

TSOP BY MFSB, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 2-4-0, goal differential -4
  • Oilers in October 2016: 5-1-0, goal differential +7
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-4-0, goal differential -7

The win in Chicago was badly needed and in all honesty another one today is necessary. Of the two Pennsylvania stops, this is probably the easiest unless they park an expansion team in Allentown overnight. The goal differential is poor but if Cam Talbot is locked and loaded we’ll see the gap close and the Oilers will be out of the blue and into the black.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-3-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games 
  • Current results: 2-4-0, 4 points after six games

Edmonton righted the ship just in time, another week of losing and they’d be the Coyotes (who are out of it now, which is both incredible and familiar). If the Oilers run the table, they’d cover my original bet. It’s more likely they’ll need to crush November to get back into top 3 Pacific. Game Seven a year ago was an impressive 4-1 win over the Washington Capitals featuring 34 stops from Cam Talbot and a pair of goals from Benoit Pouliot.

Tierney’s stuff is just brilliant, I promise not to steal any more of his stuff for a long time (he has a site and you have to promise to go there and check it out). Some good news for Oil blue pairings in that table.

LEON NEEDS MORE TIME

It’s no fun at all to know the big man won’t lace them up  today but the Oilers are wise to look long term on concussion issues. Edmonton’s offense has been popgun so far this season, they haven’t had an ‘outscore the mistakes’ game all year. Flyers games tend to be wild affairs with lots of broken plays and breakaways, this could get ugly.

MATT BENNING

The young blue should be ready to get into the lineup this morning, not sure what the pairings will look like. Darnell Nurse with Kris Russell looks good to my eye, not certain Benning with Auvitu is an ideal match. Thoughts? I like Benning’s game when he’s on, hopefully he can get back into the lineup and have success.

FORWARDS, 2017-18

  • Connor McDavid is on pace for 109 points on the season. His numbers shine like a diamond save for the gf-ga and that should turn with the defense tightening and goaltending corrected.
  • Leon Draisaitl was off to a solid start at 5×5, the most important discipline. Edmonton needs him to return soon.
  • Patrick Maroon has looked (to my eye) a little late on arrival on sorties this year. He had that stick on the ice from Schaumburg to the net on Thursday, that’s the way (uh huh uh huh) I like it.
  • Kailer Yamomoto is shooting the puck over 18 times per 60 minutes at 5×5, and frankly it’s shocking that one of the pucks hasn’t gone in yet. Semi breakaway the other night, and chance with the goalie down and out, well these things happen. In fact, both Leon Draisaitl and Jesse Puljujarvi had the same troubles as rookies.
  • Milan Lucic is bringing his more traditional  offense (5×5) to the season these early days, he and Nuge have had some early success. Getting a second line that can kick in with a goal per game would be fantastic.
  • Brad Malone’s numbers are good early and he seems to be around the net a lot. I don’t know how this is going to go with LD and Drake Caggiula about to return, but he’s earned more playing time.

PULJUJARVI’S GAME LAST NIGHT

Bakersfield Condors won last night, the big star was Nick Ellis (boxscore here) who stopped all 32 shots faced. The goal scorers were Chad Butcher and Joe Gambardella, Joey Laleggia had three shots, Dillon Simpson and Ethan Bear were on for both goals. Jesse Puljujarvi had one shot on goal, now 4gp, 0-2-2 on the year.

DEFENSE, 2017-18

  • Auvitu-Gryba sometimes looks like Laurel and Hardy but the numbers shine. I’m not sure what the pairings will look like today but the possession number and SA/60 are ludicrous.
  • Nurse-Russell has gotten the job done so far, Russell’s offense is an interesting early season story. He did have some good boxcar seasons as a yute, perhaps Todd McLellan will use him in that role moving forward. I would like to see Auvitu.
  • Klefbom-Larsson have had some wobble early in the season but looked good in the last game and Oscar’s offense seemed to be more focused. Edmonton needs these two men from Sweden to be their best defensemen every night.
  • Laurent Brossoit has a .935 even-strength save percentage (No. 13 league-wide) and Cam Talbot owns a .906 SP in the same discipline (No. 32 overall). Source

EARLY GAMES

I don’t know their actual record but will bet the Oilers winning percentage is less than .400 in afternoon games. It’s a thing.

250 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 votes
Article Rating
250 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
rickithebear

LT:

Based on your love of tierney putting dmen on a chart showing Cf/Ca as a measure.

You believe.

1. The game structure were forwards are ahead of dmeb on faceoffs, even game play, pp game play, pk game play does not dictate who is primarily structured to attack and defend.
Wrong!

2. Dmen who abandon thier primary defensive position by structure to attack offensively rewards the team equally at even offence as the top 9 forwards.
Wrong!

3. By structure dmen are the primary reason that
offensive entry fails,
Offensive corsi is not released,
Offensivehd area is not penetrated,
Offensiveshots are not open,
giveaways on the offensive side of the red line occur.
Wrong!

4. The offensive failure of forwards and off dmen does not afect the ability to press the neutral zone and press the blue to prevent entry.
Wrong!

5.The biggest factors for affecting a def dman’s ca is
forwards offensive failure with no neutral zone pressure
Correct
High dz Fo versus oz fo count
Correct
coming off the bench
Correct
His play
Wrong

6.More than 2/3 of the def affect in a game is a dman
Having a low hd corsi ratio. (HDCAx,y/CA)
Correct
Having a low open shot ratio (openSHx,y/SH)
Correct

7. Exclusion (flattening of 3d matrix) of
Comp: Upper, lower 1st-4th
Team Upper, Lower 1st-4th
ZS: OZFO NZFO, DZFO, line change with or without pocession
Does not affect every piece of player usage mean to compare performance to.
Wrong!

8. Repeatability of base performance is not important.
Wrong!

9. Many on hear are elite hockey analytic minds
???????

During my years attending univ. and tech school.
I would run tutorial classes ( for free) at the schools at night for my fellow students.
I was able to convey the mechanisms and concepts in person.
Something i clearly cannot in prose.

Many of my one on ones get it.
DIV. 2 and 3 coaches i met in Salmon Arm.

WHL Junior Scouts.
I especially love when they passionatly discuss thier observations.
Or when they tell me the details of players on thier teams who were drafted or signed by NHL teams telling them my theories they used to pick them.
They do not tell me the player or the team.
But looking at thier roster and knowing the method tells me the player and team without telling me.

People at work, engineers and planers, material feild testers, coal life expectancy modelers in economics, enviormental (wind/water/soil) civil (foundation, road, steal), mechanical (process, rotating)
Electrical (DC, vital, AC(low, med, high, substn, transmission) instrumentation,( control, feild,), network, operation ( alarm mgmt, logic, soe), Data mgmt, maintanence ( lubrication, generational performance migration) for sweden, usa, japan, china, germany,.
Hockey fans!

I am sorry i could not stand in front of you so you could get it!

But i have people who were dead set against it saw him goods coming up to me to break down THIER team.

It is Besutiful!

Visual?

Hmmmmmm!

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar:
Safin with 2 assists and 5 shots in a 4-3 loss.

Samorukov with no points but 3 shots in a 2-0 win.

Wells lit up for 7 goals on 31 shots – ouch.

Maksimov with 4 shots on net in a 1-0 OTL

Ellis getting the start on back to back nights – stopped all 17 shots against in the first and the Condors are are 1-0 on a Ty Rattie goal – from Simpson and Bear.No shots on net for Jesse so far.

Bear with his second point of the night – a goal from Christoffer.

Bear is having a better start to the season than I figured – I thought he’d struggle early with the speed of the game and get better as the season went on.

Ellis has stopped all 24 shots so far.

OriginalPouzar

Durag:
This forward group desperately needs an injection of speed and skill. I’m not sure Draisaitl and Caggiula will be enough and I’m not sure we can afford to wait to find out.

Drai is pretty big skill to inject.

OriginalPouzar

Safin with 2 assists and 5 shots in a 4-3 loss.

Samorukov with no points but 3 shots in a 2-0 win.

Wells lit up for 7 goals on 31 shots – ouch.

Maksimov with 4 shots on net in a 1-0 OTL

Ellis getting the start on back to back nights – stopped all 17 shots against in the first and the Condors are are 1-0 on a Ty Rattie goal – from Simpson and Bear. No shots on net for Jesse so far.

Durag

This forward group desperately needs an injection of speed and skill. I’m not sure Draisaitl and Caggiula will be enough and I’m not sure we can afford to wait to find out.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– I get that we’ve lost a few games and that sucks.

– If you think that this team is going to score 2-2-1-3-1 goals per game going forward you have to be really pessimistic.

– Last year we were the 8th most goals scored. I really doubt that the loss of Eberle and his 16 goals in 80 games is the reason we are 2nd worst in league right now in GF.

– I doubt McL has set up a system because he’s a bad coach that gamed us to a PDO of 950

– They just to need score more, play more games. That was a fine road game, untill I jinxed it!

JimmyV1965

Thought the Oil played a good game tonight. If Talbot continues to perform like that we will win our fair share of games. Not sure if it’s enuf to make the playoffs though. Love RNH but he’s a very meh 2C. He needs dynamic wingers to succeed. Msybe Drai comes back and injects enuf offence.

Woodguy v2.0

Red Wings trade defenceman Ryan Sproul to Rangers for forward Matt Puempel

Woodguy v2.0

Bob McKenzie‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie 39m39 minutes ago

PIT-DET talks picked up again on Riley Sheahan. Expect him to be heading to PIT.

Woodguy v2.0

Biggest reason to send Yamamoto back so far:

McDavid’s 5v5 pts/60 with:

Leon Draisaitl 4.53
Adam Larsson 4.04
Oscar Klefbom 3.90
Patrick Maroon 2.55
Eric Gryba 2.07
Darnell Nurse 1.79
Kailer Yamamoto 1.06

Yes, they’ve had to puck luck and PDO isn’t good, but Yamamoto’s shot wouldn’t break a wet paper bag.

He’ll be a good Oiler for a long time, but get some NHLers to play with the best player in the world please.

I don’t think Yamamto is there yet

GMB3

jtblack:
” Nuge made a valiant attempt to get there but too late”

Nuge’s career is turning into a Valiant effort with 0 – 0 – 0 Box cars too many nights.He has won a few draws this year, which is nice to see.But we need more from him.

Yes RNH is what’s wrong with this team!! 100% spot on.

The guy is saddled with dogshit Lucic and Strome.

Play Sleppy with McDavid, Drai and Maroon with RNH. Probably the best way to find some offence. Maroon continually is in the center of the defensive zone covering no one and isn’t there on his wall when the puck inevitable gets rimmed to that side.

jtblack

” Nuge made a valiant attempt to get there but too late”

Nuge’s career is turning into a Valiant effort with 0 – 0 – 0 Box cars too many nights. He has won a few draws this year, which is nice to see. But we need more from him.

sliderule

Strome was the closest to shooter.

He appears to be Ebs without scoring.

Connor made a late change with the flow against him.

That was not good as Nuge made a valiant attempt to get there but too late

Woodguy v2.0

Woodguy v2.0,

Uber hot start for that trio and they take on the best every night.

So is McLellan going to run McDavid at them or RNH?

Its a road game and *usually* 97 and 93 end up pretty close in terms TOI vs other team’s best line unless they have two lines like CHI.

Lately Hakstol ran Couts et al hard vs Johansson (NSH), and Barkov (FLA).

Against WSH who had two very good lines he ran them vs Kuznetzov and then Fippula’s line vs Ovi.

Given that EDM really only has one line I expect 97 gets Couts, but 97 isn’t like any other player so *maybe* he tries to avoid him with Couts.

Should be interesting to watch.

Hakstol ran them at McDavid and won the battle

Couturier’s most common opponents and his TOI vs them:

Player TOI
Oscar Klefbom 8:18
Kailer Yamamoto 8:09
Adam Larsson 7:55
Patrick Maroon 7:43
Connor McDavid 7:09
Darnell Nurse 4:25
Eric Gryba 4:09
Mark Letestu 3:43
Iiro Pakarinen 3:28
Matthew Benning 3:07
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 3:03
Ryan Strome 3:01
Milan Lucic 2:40
Kris Russell 2:34
Zack Kassian 2:10
Anton Slepyshev 1:57
Jussi Jokinen 1:04
Brad Malone 0:55

Couturier’s CF vs same opponents

Player CF% With
Oscar Klefbom 75
Kailer Yamamoto 68.18
Adam Larsson 66.67
Patrick Maroon 68.18
Connor McDavid 63.64
Darnell Nurse 50
Eric Gryba 57.14
Mark Letestu 60
Iiro Pakarinen 40
Matthew Benning 55.56
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 57.14
Ryan Strome 80
Milan Lucic 100
Kris Russell 12.5
Zack Kassian 75
Anton Slepyshev 20
Jussi Jokinen 20
Brad Malone 0

EDM Forwards overall 5v5 TOI for the game
Player TOI
Kailer Yamamoto 16:48
Patrick Maroon 16:16
Connor McDavid 15:28
Ryan Strome 12:58
Milan Lucic 12:49
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 12:16
Zack Kassian 11:51
Brad Malone 10:21
Mark Letestu 9:43
Jussi Jokinen 9:19
Iiro Pakarinen 8:55
Anton Slepyshev 7:42

EDM forwards overall CF% for the game
Player CF%
Anton Slepyshev 69.23
Brad Malone 68.75
Jussi Jokinen 58.82
Iiro Pakarinen 57.89
Connor McDavid 56.76
Kailer Yamamoto 55.26
Patrick Maroon 52.78
Zack Kassian 52.38
Mark Letestu 40.91
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 40
Milan Lucic 33.33
Ryan Strome 30

Free Sleppy!

EDM Dmen 5v5 TOI for the game
Player TOI
Adam Larsson 21:46
Oscar Klefbom 21:37
Darnell Nurse 15:19
Eric Gryba 14:31
Kris Russell 12:22
Matthew Benning 11:54

EDM Dmen CF% for the game
Player CF%
Eric Gryba 65.22
Darnell Nurse 64
Kris Russell 51.85
Adam Larsson 50
Oscar Klefbom 45.45
Matthew Benning 37.04

Klef was 1-4 with Benning in 1:28 to explain the disparity.

OmJo

Gret99zky: Lucic for Petry?

I’d do that in a heartbeat. But I’m biased.

Woodguy v2.0

Agreed that Strome and Lucic were major culprits on the last goal.

Lucic let him man loose and Strome looked like Gagner watching the puck while Simmonds joined the play right beside him.

Be nice if Russell made a different play, but that whole sequence started as a 1 on 4 and ended in a 2 on 1 so lots of blame to go around.

verite

Has Chiarelli been fired yet?

Richard S.S.

Goaltending has been fine the last two games, you don’t need great. The Defense has been fine, and better recently, you don’t need great. The Offense, this entire season, has not been good enough, not even close. Take McDavid out of the lineup and the Oilers are a bottom feeder, nothing more.

Leon Draisaitl still has symptoms – his words. That puts him at least two weeks away, if not more. Drake Caggiula might be back sooner. Jesse Puljujarvi is still not ready – yet. Before Chiarelli makes any moves, he needs to start making hard decisions. Some of these Players are just too slow, and might not be good enough. What can be done, I don’t know?

Dustylegnd

leadfarmer,

As Woodguy says we traded tangibles aka goals for intangibles Luc

Gret99zky

OmJo:
godot10,

The Habs offered him more money than we did.

We offered him McDavid, which lasted what, 10 games?

Lucic for Petry?

GMB3

Seriously concerned with where we are going to find depth scoring. We are paying 21 million dollars to one player. The Penguins undoing for years was the inability to build a strong enough team around Crosby and Malkin because the cap dollars wouldn’t work. I get McDavids contract as you need to pay him what he asks for, because someone always will, but maaaaannnn I am not convinced Draisaitl covers the bet, and I think that if we bridged him, in 2 years he would have been 6.5/7 million dollars to sign.

Then you throw in 10 million to Looch and Russell. Cap management was never Chia’s fortè in Boston I suppose, and it took him even less time here.

OmJo

godot10,

The Habs offered him more money than we did.

We offered him McDavid, which lasted what, 10 games?

OmJo

leadfarmer: Lucic is not the Lucic player Chia was looking for.

But I did get told off for calling our forwards Drai McDavid and a whole bag of meh

Maroon, especially last season, was the Lucic player Chia was looking for. And already had.

The price we paid for Lucic just wasn’t worth it. But we’re stuck with him. $10M in cap space dedicated to Russell and Lucic for the next 4 years.

The price you gotta pay for mediocrity.

Gret99zky

Dustylegnd:
Gret99zky,

0 takers on that Contract Amigo

The Legend®

The Legend might get it done. Everyone is looking for the “Lucic type”.

I read somewhere that Lucic is larger than life, an under-rated passer and has a strong 5vs5 game. Sublime 5vs4 stats last season. Strong in second half of the season. RE: 46pts.

godot10

I blame Lucic and Strome more for that last goal then Russell.

Lucic was in steady decline. Played great in his retirement contract season. Let the suckers bid against each other, picking the biggest one. And resumed his decline into oblivion.

OmJo

New Improved Darkness: One suspects we’re not getting any new pieces of the storyline that snap cleanly into the Taylor Hall window.

Live by the window, die by the window.

It’s okay, Strome has the same amount of goals as Hall and Eberle combined.

And he has the defensive coverage of Eberle and Yakupov combined.

Very inconsistent player, in all seriousness. The Islanders must love trading with Chiarelli.

leadfarmer

Dustylegnd: can’t score if you can’t get to where you need to be to score….his skating is Gord awful

Lucic is not the Lucic player Chia was looking for.

But I did get told off for calling our forwards Drai McDavid and a whole bag of meh

Dustylegnd

jtblack:
I saw that play by Russell 15 times today … at my kids Atom game …

Did Lucic leave his hands back in L.A.?I have been a supporter but it seems like he is getting worse … trouble cycling the puck, passing and scoring. Bad Arrows as Mr. LT would say.

LT: what is higher than Pike’s Peak? Thats what this team must climb now

can’t score if you can’t get to where you need to be to score….his skating is Gord awful

leadfarmer

GMB3: I feel ya there. I laughed at the people who said he is more of a “Bruins” type player.

Ha!! I completely forgot about that.

New Improved Darkness

Showerhead: And now, 6 years later, as Couturier finally gets quality teammates, we’re still getting new pieces of the storyline.

One suspects we’re not getting any new pieces of the storyline that snap cleanly into the Taylor Hall window.

Live by the window, die by the window.

jtblack

hags9k,

+1. Strome = Invisible

OmJo

Like the whole scenario just looks hialrious. Everybody is standing and Russell is on his stomach trying so hard to do something.

https://twitter.com/NateInVegas/status/921820930048851970

leadfarmer

russ99: Again, you guys are discounting Russell because of one bad play. He had a solid game other than the stupid flops. Top pairing played much worse in this one.

Russell is going to get the blame for everything if you haven’t noticed. We must make the stats fit. Got already blamed for Bennings early struggles, got blamed on the first goal which nurse went all Eakins era swarm after the puck at the boards he did recover but by that time Russell was stuck covering 2 guys. Sure he made the wrong play on the last goal but once again stuck covering two forwards by himself

Dustylegnd

Gret99zky,

0 takers on that Contract Amigo

OmJo

Honestly this loss is much easier to handle when you look at Twitter and how just entertaining that last sequence of plays really was. You have to laugh at this point to hold the tears back, or disguise them as tears of laughter.

Really though, the pictures of Russell (I’m not singling him out for what happened) laying on the ice with the puck going right by him is actually hilarious. The poor coverage by Strome and Lucic, not so much.

Mr. D.

Just a reminder to the genius’s who trash Gryba’s play. He makes 900k. He plays well above that. He’s not doing any worse than our 4 mil guys.

GMB3

leadfarmer: I’ve been saying that all of offseason but got poupou’d by all the stats people that squinted hard enough at a 30 game sample size and believed that he was a good player

I feel ya there. I laughed at the people who said he is more of a “Bruins” type player.

leadfarmer

GMB3:
Ryan Stome has looked better last few games but good lord he was not the right guy to target in a trade… just another perimeter player. At least Eberle would get inside the D occasionally leading to a 5 bell chance.

I’ve been saying that all of offseason but got poupou’d by all the stats people that squinted hard enough at a 30 game sample size and believed that he was a good player

Gret99zky

“There is no plan.” — Peter Chiarelli

GMB3

russ99: That’s the system we’re playing, keep possession, get pucks on net, recover the puck and look for good shots.

It worked pretty well today except for the scoring on the good shots part.

Well it hasn’t really panned out yet this season through 7 games. Not scoring many goals.

Gret99zky

Chia needs to ask Lucic to waive his NTC.

hags9k

I’m looking forward to seeing the new guy Strome dress for his first game.

jtblack

I saw that play by Russell 15 times today … at my kids Atom game …

Did Lucic leave his hands back in L.A.? I have been a supporter but it seems like he is getting worse … trouble cycling the puck, passing and scoring. Bad Arrows as Mr. LT would say.

LT: what is higher than Pike’s Peak? Thats what this team must climb now

russ99

GMB3:
Ryan Stome has looked better last few games but good lord he was not the right guy to target in a trade… just another perimeter player. At least Eberle would get inside the D occasionally leading to a 5 bell chance.

That’s the system we’re playing, keep possession, get pucks on net, recover the puck and look for good shots.

It worked pretty well today except for the scoring on the good shots part.

Pouzar

russ99: Again, you guys are discounting Russell because of one bad play. He had a solid game other than the stupid flops. Top pairing played much worse in this one.

Yeah Russell wasn’t bad. Just a frustrating sequence at the end.

Pouzar

OriginalPouzar: That second pairing should be Nurse/Benning with Russell/Gryba as the third pair.
The coach needs to recognize this soon.

Will not happen.

GMB3

Ryan Stome has looked better last few games but good lord he was not the right guy to target in a trade… just another perimeter player. At least Eberle would get inside the D occasionally leading to a 5 bell chance.

LMHF#1

Gret99zky: Lucic for Weber?

I was thinking of a 3 for 3 or 4 for 4 honestly.

LMHF#1

Truth:
That last goal was all on Lucic.Didn’t even attempt to stick with his man coming into the zone.I must have watched him do that 10 times already this year.Awful.

He had a role in it, but no. As a defenceman you cannot make that “attempt Russell made. Completely the wrong thing to do. That shouldn’t have wound up in their net.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

That last power-play was some kinda yuck.

Zero puck movement, zero player movement and for some unbeknownst reason decided not to go across to the other side when McDonald blocked that shot.

And then stay out there for 95 seconds?

Weird set of sorties