Hasten Down the Wind

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers corrected their season with a 1-1-1 road trip, now it’s time to come home and win some games at Rogers Place. The club has five points after eight games and it appears this year’s script is going feature the team coming from behind to win the day. Or not. Points lost in October can dash hopes in the spring and that’s a fact. I think Peter Chiarelli owes it to his team to add some help, we’ll see if he agrees in the coming days.

PIKE’S PEAK, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 3-5-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-1-0, goal differential +12
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-1, goal differential -9

A little of this is strength of schedule, Edmonton has been playing some good hockey teams this year. Still, there was some wobble in net early and now the team can’t score goals. The Western Conference does not forgive, should the gales of November come early.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-3-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games 
  • Current results: 2-5-1, 5 points after eight games games

For the first time since opening night, the Oilers covered the bet during an October chapter. Despite a faltering start to the year, two wins on home ice against Dallas and Washington would mean the month is merely disappointing, less than devastating. If the team can play as well as they did last night at home, I think they can do it.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson were 14-13 together Larsson was 5-4 with Darnell Nurse and Oscar went 5-2 in three minutes with Kris Russell. I liked the Swedish pairing, Oscar’s assist was a nice pass. The top pairing played mostly against Guentzel-Crosby-Sheary, going 15-10. A fine game.
  • Nurse-Russell went 10-9 in 10:24, Nurse had the best Corsi for 5×5 among blue at just over 60 percent. Went 12-3 against Rust-Malkin-Kessel, I think that might have been Nurse’s best game. Terrific passing, calm feet, re-set well, I liked him a lot. Important to make sure we don’t get ahead of ourselves, but last night Nurse played top four minutes effectively. A plethora of smart people have told me privately Nurse is extremely unlikely to do that consistently in his career. I don’t know that Nurse will or won’t but he did last night. We’ll keep tracking this as the year goes along. Nurse wasn’t riding McDavid’s coattails either, going 7-10 with and 13-3 without (mostly with the Nuge).
  • Auvitu-Benning were on the ice for the first GA and were not good (although they were 2-1 in HD SC). Went 9-11 Corsi and 4-10 in shots while not having an answer for the Penguins when they were wheeling. Peter Chiarelli needs to give his coach a little more on defense.
  • Cam Talbot was the Oilers’ best, stopping 42 of 44. His save percentage has climbed all the way to .915.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Maroon-McDavid went 22-12 together and hosted a plethora of right wingers. If I didn’t know better, it looked like the coach was sending out an s.o.s. or doing the Billy Martin*. Any way, Letestu (8-4), Yamamoto (4-4), Draisaitl (9-5) Kassian (3-1), Ryan Strome (3-0) and Drake Caggiula (1-5) joined the party on 97’s line. McDavid was 10-2 against Malkin, 9-11 against Crosby. My lord Jesus this young man is special.
  • I love Kailer Yamamoto as a player but he isn’t cashing those 10-bell chances. He’s a doppelganger for Leon as a rookie (or vice versa, I can never remember) but we may be one year away from delivering magic consistently. Helluva young player.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Strome went 9-10 (Looch) and 13-10 (Strome) with RNH. Trio went 6-7 against the Malkin line and 5-3 against the Crosby trio. I liked the line most of the night, save for 93’s two galling passing giveaways and Lucic missing the net on 3-on-3 in overtime. We’ll talk more about that play in a few minutes.
  • Caggiula-Draisaitl went 11-8 together and 3-4 with Kailer Yamamoto as the most common winger. The Caggiula-Yamamoto combination went 7-6, no idea  who was playing center for what segment.
  • Pakarinen-Khaira-Kassian 2-5 in less than five minutes, Kassian got about one minute with McDavid and looked fine. This trio played less than half of the third line, McLellan was running up that hill.

*Billy Martin couldn’t get his Detroit Tigers out of a slump, so one day he decided to pull the batting order out of a hat. The result? His slugger hit leadoff and his shortstop (Eddie Brinkman) who couldn’t hit a lick was cleanup. They won, with the guy batting fourth getting it done. Source

MILAN LUCIC IN OVERTIME

There is a long history of coaches doing unusual things, so Lucic in the 3-on-3 may have been a hunch or maybe another winger blew a shoe. I don’t think running ML in a speed situation is a good idea, would rather see Patrick Maroon in the role. I’m not anti-Lucic, but putting him on the ice in that situation isn’t going to produce good results. The internet is drunk with people finding fault with the big man, but I’ll suggest the coach is the culprit in this instance.

LEON AT CENTER

I was on the Post-Game Show with Dean Millard (TSN1260) last night, he asked me where I thought Leon Draisaitl should play Thursday night. Answer? 2C. That’s my opinion. Now ask me where I think Todd McLellan will stick Leon. Answer: 1R. The general manager needs to go get some speedster who can score. The price could be painful, maybe Slepyshev, who might be a solid solution given the opportunity. That’s what a bad start to the season gets you and why balance is an important goal in summer.

WHAT IS IT?

We seem to have reached one of those damnable moments where we can make statements of certainty but cannot agree on their importance. What’s more, we know our views on solutions are unlikely to match the views of the organization.

  • The Oilers are shooting in awful luck.
  • The Oilers don’t have enough quality forwards on the roster.
  • The club needs another defenseman.

All of these statements are true but I’m not sure any of them individually means the Oilers will miss the playoffs. I think CMD could outscore a lot of mistakes if Cam Talbot continues to play well, and that was enough to make the postseason a year ago. One of the things that seems to be happening on this blog and elsewhere is a progression to a few different conclusions:

  • The Oilers roster is woefully short of good enough, the bet on youngsters has been a miserable failure.
  • The general manager didn’t do close to enough over the summer.
  • The coach bleeds points via decisions like Milan Lucic playing 3-on-3.

Ask my opinion on all three. The answer? Yes, all three points have merit to a greater or lesser degree. Now ask me if I think it will impact the employment of Peter Chiarelli or Todd McLellan. As is the case with the Leon at center question above, my opinion and the reality of the situation are miles apart. Peter Chiarelli is going  to write his own script and that’s as it should be for any general manager. The pressure on him is enormous but he was also at the helm during the 103-point season one year ago. Can he fix this team in time?

WHITEY

When Whitey Herzog took over the St. Louis Cardinals they were a middling team without much personality. He traded enormously popular Ted Simmons (a tremendous hitter and a good not great catcher) while bringing in a plethora of speed, defense and pitching.

  • Retro Simba: Herzog, who doubled as the Cardinals’ general manager, traded 13 Cardinals and received 9 players in return in 3 deals, with the Padres, Cubs and Brewers. The biggest stunner was the last one: popular catcher Ted Simmons, the soul of the team, was traded with pitchers Rollie Fingers and Pete Vuckovich to the Brewers for pitchers Lary Sorensen and Dave LaPoint and outfielders Sixto Lezcano and David Green. Source

Herzog had taken over one third of the way through the 1980 season and actually left the team as manager to scour the minor league system mid-season in an effort to get a head start on the 1981 campaign (Red Schoendienst took over the day-to-day managerial duties). That winter, Herzog hit on most of his trades, adding Darrell Porter (free-agent catcher who could handle a pitching staff), Gene Tenace (who came over in an enormous trade with San Diego), Bruce Sutter (who was an unhittable closer). In December 1981 he added Ozzie Smith (the best defensive shortstop of his era, possibly ever), and a couple of months previous to that fleeced the NY Yankees out of Willie McGee.

Whitey traded the most popular Cardinals player (Simmons) on December 12, 1980 and won the World Series on October 20, 1982 (Bruce Sutter with the save). On the night he won, Cardinals fans didn’t give a hoot about Ted Simmons (who went 0-for-4 in that game batting cleanup for the other team, the Milwaukee Brewers). It all happened just this way.

CHIARELLI

Last night, on this blog, people were so upset about the overtime loss in Pittsburgh the name Taylor Hall resurfaced and we boxed that around for a time. That’s going to happen when a team inside the Stanley Cup window starts 2-5-1 and that’s the only real danger for Peter Chiarelli. As mad as some fans were (and are) about some of his trades, winning the Stanley Cup will wash away all sorrows and we’ll dance away the heartache on the day. On the night he wins Stanley as Oilers general manager (should it happen) a small percentage of fans may bring up the name Taylor Hall in a derisive fashion, but who on earth will care?

You have to do the things required to put yourself in position. Win. So far this season PC’s plan isn’t working. The faith shown in players like Matt Benning, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula and Jesse Puljujarvi is not bearing fruit. I think Peter Chiarelli is as aggressive in his own way as Whitey Herzog back in winter 1980. I don’t know if the correct answer is cutting bait on some of these youngsters in their new, more prominent roles, or if it’s better to stay the course.

I do know that Peter Chiarelli’s front office houses all kinds of strong personalities and lack of success is poison for any front office. Will we see Wayne Gretzky as the Oilers next general manager? A return of Kevin Lowe? Craig MacTavish? You can laugh if you wish but all three men are inside the organization at this time and all three men have shown a desire in the past to hold the highest jobs in the game.

I think we’re miles from a crisis in the Oilers front office, to be honest. A 2-5-1 start can easily be overcome and the goaltending is correcting in a big way. The year Herzog took over the team, St. Louis had 72 wins. Two years later, 92 wins and the World Series. The year Chiarelli took over the team, Edmonton had 70 points. One year later, 103 points. This year? Five points in eight games. There’s urgency here and I’m not certain the solutions are going to come from inside the organization. What would Whitey do? He’d make a move to help his team. Today. Right now this minute.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we’re bringing the high heat from the opening pitch! TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Is this about quality, depth, luck, bad bets, a quiet summer or all of the above?
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. World Series Game One was splendid as October baseball shines like a diamond.
  • Don Landry, CFL.ca. Eskimos the hottest team in the CFL (again) but how far can they go in the playoffs?
  • Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show. If CHL players are allowed to compete for roster spots in the Olympics, will they be competitive? What does this do to the World Juniors and to the CHL clubs these men won’t play for over an extended period?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. We’re loaded!

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Gret99zky

OmJo,

Pump and dump never works.

Not with this team.

OmJo

Pouzar:
Simon Boisvert‏ @simonsnake702h2 hours ago
More Simon Boisvert Retweeted Darren Dreger
He’s a good passer with good vision. But he’s had a hard time adapting to smaller ice surface and pace of play. KHL is a different league.

Who’s this in reference to, Shipachyov?

OmJo

Pink Socks: To play devil’s advocate; if Eberle’s numbers are pumped playing with McDavid, the last thing the team would want to do is trade him when the team is having success.It’s a tough balance trading a player who’s stock is rather volatile.

Regarding RNH, even though the cap is tighter next year, I don’t think RNH needs to be moved.There is $16.5m is space next year with a $3m bump in the cap.We lose Korpikoski and Fayne’s salaries, and I don’t see a way where Nurse, Benning, Maroon, Slepy, Caggiula, and Letestu get anywhere near $16m.

Nurse – $3.5?
Benning – $2m max
Maroon – $4m max
Slepy – $1.5m
Caggiula – $1.5m
Letestu – $2m

That’s $14.5m, I think fair numbers though Nurse may go up if he continues this play.Strome likely walks.I just don’t see the necessity in moving RNH next season; and the year following should provide additional space and Russell enters “the buy him out to eat the salary in a likely lockout year” stage.

Fair point. What I meant was if they commited to trading him in the summer, to try and pump and dump him in the playoffs. Worst case scenario he plays good enough you decide it’s better to keep him and are left with a good veteran RH RW for a season until Yamamoto or Puljujarvi are ready to take over. From my understanding the cap space we saved in the deal isn’t really being used (yet) and Strome is well… Yeah.

I agree, I don’t think he needs to be moved either. I personally don’t want us to trade him. I just feel like he’ll be the next to go. Why? Just a hunch.

Pouzar:
Simon Boisvert‏ @simonsnake702h2 hours ago
More Simon Boisvert Retweeted Darren Dreger
He’s a good passer with good vision. But he’s had a hard time adapting to smaller ice surface and pace of play. KHL is a different league.

How do you adjust when you get 10 minutes a game on the 3Rd line as a skill guy. Such nonsense. On a team like Chicago or even with Lucic he’d be solid

Jaxon

Bruce McCurdy: Justin Schultz says hi. (from Lalaland, after the Caggs elbow in the mush).

I crapped on Benning pretty hard in my game grades last night, but looking at the game highlights with fresh eyes this morning I see a terrific contribution by him on the Yamamoto miss, dishing the puck to McDavid, driving the net front, occupying the d-man & goalie & narrowly missing scooping the puck home himself before it ever got to Yamamoto.

To your larger point. Good puck skills & blunders are far from polar opposites. Just look at the league leaders in giveaways any season, as has been discussed on this blog many times. Giveaways are something of a proxy for possession, counterintuitive as that seems. A cost of doing business if you will.

Trick is not to have to high a ratio of one to the other.At a certain point the cost of doing business becomes too exorbitant. We don’t need the next version of Jim McKenny, thanks all the same.

Fair enough. I wish the Oilers could have unlocked Schultz’s game and used him properly. It would be nice to have him as the 2nd RHD right now. As for Benning, puck skills and giveaway king are things to consider. But my initial point was about who to use in a 3-on-3 overtime situation. With the extra room out there, those players with puck skills and extra time may be less prone to giveaways. It is a faster game but also gives the players more space. A giveaway king in 5-on-5 may not be a giveaway king at 3-on-3 and those puck skills may come in handy. I think I had him as the 4th best option at 3-on-3 meaning he’d probably never see ice time, especially once Sekera is back as that would move him to 5th and I could easily be convinced that Larsson’s underrated puck skills put him ahead of Benning. In other words, Benning is kind of a non-factor in the discussion.

Pouzar

Simon Boisvert‏ @simonsnake70 2h2 hours ago
More Simon Boisvert Retweeted Darren Dreger
He’s a good passer with good vision. But he’s had a hard time adapting to smaller ice surface and pace of play. KHL is a different league.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0:
FLA DMen last year:

Cool thing about FLA is the QoC was almost perfectly even across everyone except Kindl

PlayerRelT CF%
MARK.PYSYK1.84
AARON.EKBLAD1.65
ALEX.PETROVIC0.51
KEITH.YANDLE-0.47
MICHAEL.MATHESON-1.7
JASON.DEMERS-2.06
JAKUB.KINDL-3.48

Is everyone piling on a -2 RelCor player?Really? Do you want the list of Dmen who played greater than 30% vs Elites and had a -2 RelCor?Its pretty long

PlayerRel GF%
KEITH.YANDLE5.25
MARK.PYSYK4
ALEX.PETROVIC0.97
MICHAEL.MATHESON0.42
JASON.DEMERS-1.12
AARON.EKBLAD-7.58
JAKUB.KINDL-10.75

Everyone is convinced he’s dogshit with-1.12 GF%?Do you know what that means? You think 50% of Dmen in the NHL are done.Remember when you said he was “done”Well half the league is done.

PlayerRel xGF%
MARK.PYSYK2.26
ALEX.PETROVIC1.41
MICHAEL.MATHESON-0.11
AARON.EKBLAD-0.17
JASON.DEMERS-0.71
JAKUB.KINDL-2.4
KEITH.YANDLE-2.52

xGF% is similar to DFF%.Same thing.About even.The horror, the horror.

Now that he’s putting up better numbers you say “but they’re a shit team!!!!”

How about these Relative numbers from a Dman on shit team?

Rel CF% -3.12
Rel GF% -13.68
Rel xGF% -5.67

That’s a first pairing Dman on a team with one whole more win that ARI.

He must be the dog shittest of the dog shit Dmen ever eh?

Veteran dman getting passed by young dmen that desperately needed a steady hand is what you are telling us. Him and Kindl bottom 3 no matter which metric you use although Kindl is dead last. Sure he can recover. I don’t get why anyone is defending that he had a tough season. Metrics tell us that, Florida fans tell us that. Him getting traded one year after signing that contract tell us that.

Coyotes are a mess. A big fat mess. Any numbers from that team this early are so damn messy I wouldn’t put much stock into them. He does get top 4 time although if he couldn’t beat Clendening, Connaughton or Schenn that would be a huge problem

If I am Chia I am calling McPhee.

Fayne + pick + prospect not named JP, Bear, Yamamoto or Jones for Shipachyov.

Run some skill out there.

Maroon-McDavid-nuge
Lucic-Drai-shipachyov
Jokinen-Strome-caggiula
Khaira-Letestu-Kassian

All will be forgiven, Pete. While you’re at it, grab one of their depth D as well.

Bah. What a painful thread!

Again for the umpteenth time my problem is not with trading Hall or Eberle. It’s with what they were replaced with.

Hall + Eberle gone, 12m out
Lucic + Larsson + Strome 14m in.

Larsson is the only one pulling his weight. Then you spend 4m on a depth D like Russell.

That’s my issue. Not with trading those guys but with the replacements.

Side

gogliano: Yeah but what if Lucic is the cause of the bad luck, like some sort of cosmic bad luck deity?

Then we shed him and enjoy the following 164 point season!

Pink Socks

OmJo: My issue with the Eberle trade wasn’t that it was an Eberle trade. I wasn’t his biggest fan on the team.

My issue was that Chia traded him when his value was at an all time low. If you’re going to trade him, don’t do it in June following a piss poor postseason performance.

If they planned on trading him sometime in the season, put him back on McDavids line and boost his value. He produced almost the same as Draisaitl did with McDavid. Honestly that would have been a win-win in hindsight. First, Eberle would have far more trade value than Strome and Draisaitl likely wouldn’t be making 8.5M a season.

We’re essentially doing the same thing with Nuge. Playing him with Lucic and Strome and then will end up trading him for pennies when the time comes. Lucic is a 5v5 offense boat anchor. Nuge isn’t good enough to counteract the negative impact Lucic and Strome will have on his offense.

To play devil’s advocate; if Eberle’s numbers are pumped playing with McDavid, the last thing the team would want to do is trade him when the team is having success. It’s a tough balance trading a player who’s stock is rather volatile.

Regarding RNH, even though the cap is tighter next year, I don’t think RNH needs to be moved. There is $16.5m is space next year with a $3m bump in the cap. We lose Korpikoski and Fayne’s salaries, and I don’t see a way where Nurse, Benning, Maroon, Slepy, Caggiula, and Letestu get anywhere near $16m.

Nurse – $3.5?
Benning – $2m max
Maroon – $4m max
Slepy – $1.5m
Caggiula – $1.5m
Letestu – $2m

That’s $14.5m, I think fair numbers though Nurse may go up if he continues this play. Strome likely walks. I just don’t see the necessity in moving RNH next season; and the year following should provide additional space and Russell enters “the buy him out to eat the salary in a likely lockout year” stage.

OmJo

McSorley33:
Woodguy v2.0,

My Mom couldn’t stand Eberle and I wasn’t a big fan either, but its like arguing style over substance.
*************************************************************************************************
Your Mom is very astute.

Ryan Rishaug and others ( I believe)pointed out Eberle’s trade value to be near zero.

Same with Ryan strome.

Hence the marriage.( trade)

Now, I am not going to lie that I don’t miss Ebs offensive output now.

My issue with the Eberle trade wasn’t that it was an Eberle trade. I wasn’t his biggest fan on the team.

My issue was that Chia traded him when his value was at an all time low. If you’re going to trade him, don’t do it in June following a piss poor postseason performance.

If they planned on trading him sometime in the season, put him back on McDavids line and boost his value. He produced almost the same as Draisaitl did with McDavid. Honestly that would have been a win-win in hindsight. First, Eberle would have far more trade value than Strome and Draisaitl likely wouldn’t be making 8.5M a season.

We’re essentially doing the same thing with Nuge. Playing him with Lucic and Strome and then will end up trading him for pennies when the time comes. Lucic is a 5v5 offense boat anchor. Nuge isn’t good enough to counteract the negative impact Lucic and Strome will have on his offense.

Bag of Pucks

Woodguy v2.0

It’s not “numbers” vs “eyes”

It’s “eyes + numbers” vs “eyes” vs “numbers”

FTFY

gogliano

Side: Come on, Cassandra needs his narrative to stay alive. What else will he do when the Oilers start winning again? One gets bored staying in the shadows, waiting for a losing streak to occur so they can blame Chiarelli and Lucic for everything wrong with the world.

Yeah but what if Lucic is the cause of the bad luck, like some sort of cosmic bad luck deity?

Pink Socks

digger50:

I think the train of thought of, “how good is the team without inherited players” is flawed because there is no way to know what moves would have been made with a different roster.

I am more than fine with Hall for Larsson, fine with Eberle for Strome, especially taking both moves with the understanding that cap space is also value. But I am not so blind to see that Reinhart was a bad move, Russell was peculiar albeit necessary considering the D corps, and Lucic also was too much money for too much term.

Some will defend PC to the grave and some will vilify him for every decision. Reality is somewhere in the middle.

Pink Socks

Bag of Pucks:

This is the beauty of being a GM hater when it comes to trades. Because we can never prove there were other viable trade options, you can just blindly insist there must’ve been despite obvious market conditions to the contrary. Cos that’s what a Harvard man would do, right? He’d ignore obviously better trade returns just to spite the team’s web pundits. lol

A true statement indeed.

A) There is no way to know what the other trade options were.
B) GM’s generally want to keep their jobs, so the trade with the best value is what they will choose

And most importantly:

C) The final option if unsatisfied with the return on players is to do nothing. And the definition of insanity is….

digger50

SHILL83:
19-97-91
93-29-58
27-18-44
16-55-36
26

This could also work if not willing to call up Pul just yet.
First line is that of the playoffs and have some speed and hopefully Cagg can pick up where he was in the playoffs. Cant really do worse than Yamo has to this point so why not try it again.
Second line looks amazing to the eye. Nuge and Drai could be money together. And I think Slepy could help on the boards and has a good shot to help that line score against the other teams 2nd line.
Third line is big and strong, gives Lucic the RHC he apparently is good with and Kassian adds the speed to that line. Strome gets to play some C and against third line comp with two vets to help him.

Yes, love it.

Could you send a memo to Todd?

And one to Peter, see if he could squeeze out number 36 and replace him with Malone?

LMHF#1

Woodguy v2.0,

I don’t consider you a hardcore mathlete most of the time WG.

We can discuss the play. We can discuss systems and lines.

There are those that don’t do that.

My broader point is that I see no purpose in people being dicks about any of this. It’s just hockey, and it’s just comments on a blog. If people can’t enjoy that and yes have opinions but not degenerate into BS, then what’s the damn point?

McSorley33

Woodguy v2.0,

My Mom couldn’t stand Eberle and I wasn’t a big fan either, but its like arguing style over substance.
*************************************************************************************************
Your Mom is very astute.

Ryan Rishaug and others ( I believe) pointed out Eberle’s trade value to be near zero.

Same with Ryan strome.

Hence the marriage.( trade)

Now, I am not going to lie that I don’t miss Ebs offensive output now.

Dustylegnd

Some really enjoyable snipe sessions on here today and I don’t mean the ones that go bar down,

The collective is holding on too tight, each poster turning on the next, reactions verging on apoplectic

Coach is a fucking moron because he played a hunch literally and figuratively “Lucimoto” ™ and now coach is purposely making decision he knows will cause us to lose! Priceless

Gretz and Kevin are going to storm the Bastille with MacT manning the Guillotine, Katz defends into a state of insanity, Nicholson disappears never to be heard from again Goodfella’s style

Next game is guaranteed win night because you know what….people are losing their shit and it is always darkest right before ………………it goes PITCH Fucking BLACK!!!!!

This too shall pass lighten up bitches

Woodguy v2.0

LMHF#1:
VOR,

Trying to convince the hardcore mathletes and the old school “seen em” types to simply not be dicks to each other is apparently a monumental undertaking.

It’s up to the rest of us to blow by them as they’re stuck on the side of the road having their slap-fight.

In my experience the fancy stats fans watch way more hockey than seen em good fans.

Being told to “watch the game” after watching over 140 games a year is always worth a chuckle.

It’s not “numbers” vs “eyes”

It’s “eyes + numbers” vs “eyes”

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi: Man do we agree on this.

On your deathbed, hopefully many many many years from now, one of your great granchildren is going to ask you if you have any great wisdom to share before you move on to the great beyond. You’ll think back on a rich and rewarding life full of success, accolades and the hard lessons only learned through meeting the challenges of life head on. And then, after what must seem like an eternity to those straining to hear what might be the last words of a great man, you’ll quietly whisper, “If they had just signed Demers and kept Hall they would have been so much better.”

I already have my litany of Chiarelli complaints carved into my monument.

It’s starts off;

“See, I told ya I was sick”

“Here’s some other things I told you but y’all were too dull to internalize:

1)……..”

My stone etcher is sending both his kids to college with my account.

McSorley33

Bag of Pucks,

RNH can’t drive a line. McDavid needs a skilled linemate. Move Nuge to McDavid’s wing.
**********************************************************************************************
The only reason left is they do not want to damage his selling price…..suspect, they are selling him as a C.

Montreal or someone else may pay up for that position.

Psyche

VOR,

Your work sounds very interesting. Where do I learn more?

I’ve done some semi-professional work in this area with another sport.

Woodguy v2.0

Fleming on Gregor’s show saying nice things about JP’s game, especially his offence.

Says he created Ratti’s goal yesterday even though he didn’t get a point.

Mentioned working on the dzone coverage, stick location in dzone, stop/starts etc.

How to play in the system and trust it when things aren’t going right.

Standard stuff but basically said he offence is very good and that’s not a worry with him.

McSorley33

Snowman,

Also Nuge up to 52.9% on faceoffs and was the only Oiler over 50% last night with an ass kicking 62%.
****************************************************************************************************************
Also, in the last 3 games our 2C has recorded 0 points.

8GP – 3 points.

McSorley33

Snowman,

Lucic is slower than Hall and less skilled.
Strome is as slow/fast as Eberle and less skilled.
Reinhart is not on the roster and Chiarelli gave up Barzal to get him (fast, shoots right, skilled, currently in the nhl).
Bought out Pouliot (fast, semi skilled) and acquired Jokkinen (slow, semi skilled).
He acquired Kassian for Scrivens which was brilliant. Kassian is a fast train.
He acquired Maroon for peanuts which has been brilliant but he’s not a speed demon.
Generally, Chiarelli has bled skill and speed imo with his bigger moves. He’s had some good signings in Caggiula and Benning but he’s also bet big time on them this year and so far he’s coming up empty.
Not saying all the moves were bad. I don’t think that’s the case. I do think that he’s made the team slower and less skilled consistently enough that I’m officially concerned about it.
*****************************************************************************************
You sir are on fire.

There was no bigger fan of the Lucic signing than me…..but I am long past concerned about Looch.

Perhaps I would be willing to try him with Drai at C. But I suspect he is of 3rd line variety with some PP time in front of the net.

--hudson--

VOR,

I really enjoyed the article you posted! This interview on David Letterman lets you see how the computers 40 years ago converted high speed video to a bunch of vectors. I found it really helpful to see a visualization of what was described in the article. https://youtu.be/bQDWihPi66s?t=4m30s

The insight he gives at 4:30 about reflex timing being secondary to anticipation is really apropos to the Oilers. It seems the old Oilers management were always valuing the “fast” players, the ones who could skate fast, but not necessarily think the game fast. (I’ve been relieved to hear McLellan say the last few days the team has to play quicker in his availabilities.)

Gideon seems like an interesting fellow to have worked for!

One other area of life I’ve seen this applied to is in agile software development. Rather than making long waterfall style project timelines, teams work in shorter cycles focusing on product value over a small range of features, and letting the product vision iterate over time instead of prescribing it from project initialization.

This same approach to decision making is applied in the military (see John Boyd) and in Machine Learning (specifically Reinforcement Learning, UofA has Richard Sutton, a leading researcher in the field). Really cool stuff.

frjohnk

Looking at teams like Calgary 14-15 , Toronto13 and Colorado13-14 over the last few seasons, its possible to have “bad metrics” but run a high PDO and make the playoffs.

On the flip side, LA had great metrics last year, had a low PDO and missed the playoffs.

Oilers have great metrics from corsi, shots, scoring chances, but it is not translating to goals and wins so far.

We expect the Oilers “luck” “PDO” or whatever you want to call it, to regress, but as we have seen with other teams, they can go a whole season with tremendous “good luck” or “bad luck”.

We expect the Oilers goals and points to come, but we dont know when and we dont know if it will be too late and end up costing us down the road.

commonfan29

frjohnk: Dallas, Pittsburgh and Washington up in the next week.
3 really good teams.
Still early in the season, but if the Oilers wobbles continue and LA keeps winning this upcoming week, Oilers chances of winning the division will be in the dumb and dumber category of chances.

Teams more than four points back of the playoffs on November 1st almost never make it.

It’s not that early.

OriginalPouzar

On a “positive note”, if the team doesn’t turn things around, I wonder what we could sell Maroon at the deadline for?

Instead of trading picks/prospects for rentals we could add to our existing stock and get a good pick.

This season is a “win-win”!

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0: Awful thread.

Man do we agree on this.

On your deathbed, hopefully many many many years from now, one of your great granchildren is going to ask you if you have any great wisdom to share before you move on to the great beyond. You’ll think back on a rich and rewarding life full of success, accolades and the hard lessons only learned through meeting the challenges of life head on. And then, after what must seem like an eternity to those straining to hear what might be the last words of a great man, you’ll quietly whisper, “If they had just signed Demers and kept Hall they would have been so much better.”

LMHF#1

VOR,

Trying to convince the hardcore mathletes and the old school “seen em” types to simply not be dicks to each other is apparently a monumental undertaking.

It’s up to the rest of us to blow by them as they’re stuck on the side of the road having their slap-fight.

frjohnk

commonfan29: the team will be done in less than a week

Dallas, Pittsburgh and Washington up in the next week.

3 really good teams.

Still early in the season, but if the Oilers wobbles continue and LA keeps winning this upcoming week, Oilers chances of winning the division will be in the dumb and dumber category of chances.

Woodguy v2.0

vinotintazo:
I think if tomorrow pitlick scores this site will crash.

Pitlick has 2 goals and a 18% SH

Last year had 8 goals and a 15% SH

I’m convinced he found a monkey’s paw and wished to be a high SH% player in the NHL and the payment was his health.

Bill

A few losses and things are getting funky(not in a good way either).
I understand the unease many fans have, but is it Armageddon already?
At what point in time did open season on Chia become such a thing? Perhaps as fans,
We all need to take that dark trip back to the years and years without the playoffs just so we can
remember how damn lucky we are now. Things just aren’t clicking, a run of miserable luck it seems.
The team is led by a phenomenal player, a half decent core behind him. We can’t overlook that. Players traded in the past few seasons or McDavid? I’m no genius, but im content with what we have.
I’m no math expert(numbers never have been a strong point for me, major kudos to you guys& gals that show the awesome work though) so I’m not going to chime in on the analytical evidence, I’m of the belief that the lads will start getting it under control. Good grief, injuries and experience(or the lack of) haven’t helped with the Oilers start, but let’s give it a bit before the pitchforks, torches and public drawing and quartering of management begins.
For good(winning and playoffs) and the bad(losing and sucking slough water) I am an Edmonton oiler fan. Nothing will change that.
And damn it, I enjoy this special place and the colourful characters that visit and share their myriad opinions and voices. Let’s keep it civil and fun.

commonfan29

I’d love to know if Larsson for Eberle was ever on the table from the Devils.

Imagine a world where it had been Eberle for Larsson, Demers was signed instead of Lucic, and Yak was kept instead of Russell being signed.

Could have started last year with:
Hall-Nuge-Drai
Maroon-McD-JP
Sleppy-Caggs-Yak
Pou-Testu-Kassian

Klef-Larsson
Sekera-Demers
Nurse-Benning

Talbot

Instead, we got what we got, it hyper-inflated McD and Drai’s contracts, and the team will be done in less than a week if they don’t get back to within at least 4 points of a playoff spot by then.

And the only hope for the team not being even worse next year is Yammer and JP both taking big steps forward, as Nuge will be traded for nothing and Maroon will likely leave.

It’s amazing that, in the final analysis, the post-Sather GM who did the least long-term damage to this team might be Tambo.

Bag of Pucks

Snowman:
Bag of Pucks,

You know BoP I don’t know.

I think I’m taking some other frustrations out on this blog today. My apologies.

Carry on folks. Nothing to see here.

No apologies necessary. S’all good : )

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi: I would have to go back and look, but can almost guarantee I didn’t say that so I guess that is not the worst take I ever had I guess? Thinking about it, It would have been a pretty bad take if I did say that. Huh, that would be a pretty tough one to top. I would have to come in with a doozie like Benoit Pouliot is better than Milan Lucic. That would be a real howler worthy of good ole fashioned derision!

Edit: Here’s the link to the very painful conversation we had about your favourite player: https://lowetide.ca/2017/09/17/bare-trees/

Awful thread.

This is a gem “No shame in getting beat out by younger better players, but the results last year were bad.”

Yeah, you insisting those results are bad never ceases to confuse me.

You’re pretty smart but you seem to not be able to let go of “Demers isn’t good” regardless of the evidence.

SHILL83

19-97-91
93-29-58
27-18-44
16-55-36
26

This could also work if not willing to call up Pul just yet.
First line is that of the playoffs and have some speed and hopefully Cagg can pick up where he was in the playoffs. Cant really do worse than Yamo has to this point so why not try it again.
Second line looks amazing to the eye. Nuge and Drai could be money together. And I think Slepy could help on the boards and has a good shot to help that line score against the other teams 2nd line.
Third line is big and strong, gives Lucic the RHC he apparently is good with and Kassian adds the speed to that line. Strome gets to play some C and against third line comp with two vets to help him.

Side

Psyche:
Side,

For me, it appears that he went full speed for turning over (and improving) the roster for 2 years. Then, last summer, instead of a critical analysis and finding more ways to improve the roster he mostly stood pat. Everyone else attempted to upgrade their roster and the Oilers did not.

Agreed, I groaned when he said he would not make any big moves as he believes in the players he has. But, I fully believe the Oilers are a victim of early season wrinkles and bad luck. Still hoping Chia makes a good acquisition before the deadline though.

digger50

vinotintazo:
I think if tomorrow pitlick scores this site will crash.

Lol. So true. I like that kid.

Fast, forechecks hard, hits, and puts the puck in the net.
I wondered why they let him walk. I assumed the team knew something about his fragile state that we did not.

Bag of Pucks

VOR,

Great post.

One of the things I see on the Internet frequently is it’s hard for people to admit when they might be wrong or at the very least, that they might have missed something in their assessment, particularly after they’ve taken a hard polarized stand on something.

It’s ironic, because you would think the anonymity of the web would actually create the opposite effect (i.e. easy to admit a mistake when no one knows who you are). But we’re pretty proud apes at the end of the day.

https://youtu.be/ruhFmBrl4GM

vinotintazo

I think if tomorrow pitlick scores this site will crash.

SHILL83

19-97-98
27-29-58
91-93-18
36-55-44
26-16

77-6
25-83
4-62
81

Send Yamo back and let the kid develop, call up Pul and give him a real chance with McD.
Were currently experiment with the line up anyway, and losing games so why not try something else.
This give the possibility of four lines that could actually play against each teams lines and maybe a line or two takes advantage of the other teams line, which leads to maybe another goal or two. Currently have nothing to lose as we keep losing, time to start figuring out line that can get us wins.
Not sold on the d pairings but Nurse has earned the 2nd pairing with his play and if you play him with nurse then maybe call up simpson to play with benning on the third. I don’t like the idea of Benning and Gryba together at all.

Chachi

Woodguy v2.0:
Chachi,

I remember I said he was done as a top 4 d-man.

My recollection is that you said he’s done as a NHLer

Worst take you ever had.

I would have to go back and look, but can almost guarantee I didn’t say that so I guess that is not the worst take I ever had I guess? Thinking about it, It would have been a pretty bad take if I did say that. Huh, that would be a pretty tough one to top. I would have to come in with a doozie like Benoit Pouliot is better than Milan Lucic. That would be a real howler worthy of good ole fashioned derision!

Edit: Here’s the link to the very painful conversation we had about your favourite player: https://lowetide.ca/2017/09/17/bare-trees/

VOR

I have spent decades coaching in sports where technology has for all time changed the practice of coaching.

Coaching is inherently an eye test business. I have to trust my eyes (well my senses in general) to tell me when a high jumper I am coaching is out of rhythm on their approach, when a triple jumper is putting to much force into to their take off on the hop, or when a discus thrower is putting too much energy into stopping their rotation and not enough into the discus. But I can also film these events and then I can analyze the digital film with computer software that tells me if what I think I saw was what was really happening.

That technology, see my previous post about Gideon Ariel, has been available since the late 1970s. You quickly learn, coaching track and field, or basketball, or tennis, or weight lifting, or swimming, or soccer that your eye deceives you a large percentage of the time. I think I can say with some confidence that those of you who rely entirely on your eyes to understand hockey are probably missing part of the game that has real value to coaches and GMs.

However, I spend my life working with mathematical models. And trying to figure out why those models don’t reflect the real world. No model is ever perfect. In fact the math says that it never can be. A life spent living with recalcitrant numbers has convinced me that anybody who relies solely on numbers to understand hockey is missing part of the game that has real value to coaches and GMs.

Wouldn’t it be nice if we could start combining what our eyes see with what the math reveals to gain a better understanding of the game we all love?

I am pretty sure that isn’t going to happen as long as the two sides are calling each other names.

Psyche

Side,

For me, it appears that he went full speed for turning over (and improving) the roster for 2 years. Then, last summer, instead of a critical analysis and finding more ways to improve the roster he mostly stood pat. Everyone else attempted to upgrade their roster and the Oilers did not.

Woodguy v2.0

Chachi,

I remember I said he was done as a top 4 d-man.

My recollection is that you said he’s done as a NHLer

Worst take you ever had.