Game Nine 2017-18: Stars at Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers are back home and have a nice stretch of games at Rogers. If they were firing on all pistons, we could count on a large slice of the available points—but this season has a different feel to it. In our last episode, the head coach was sending out an S.O.S. for a 1R, perhaps operating out of home base will bring him some answers.

PIKES PEAK, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 3-5-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-1-0, goal differential +12
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-1, goal differential -9

Game Nine a year ago was that strange 2-0 loss to Ottawa, Craig Anderson shutting out the club on an emotional evening. Cam Talbot stopped 20 of 21 but the story was in the other goal. Edmonton isn’t scoring goals, the GF-GA per game (1.88-3.00) in sharp contrast to one year ago (2.96-2.52). They can’t fire 23 players, so there is abundant pressure on the coach. Nothing imminent of course, but Todd McLellan has a lot to ponder over the next three days. His roster, his lines and pairings, will tell us a lot about who he wants to go to war with on this roster.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-3-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games 
  • Current results: 2-5-1, 5 points after eight games games

It took some time for the team to settle down defensively and now they seem hesitant in the offensive zone. The shooting percentage is going to regress and I think we should be able to count on at least one win in the next two games that will round out this week. I expect we will see a watershed offensive evening at some point in the next week or two, but timing is unknown.

Photo by Rob Ferguson

TRADE WINDS (SPEED)

  • Elliotte Friedman: “I think that they are going to look for speed. I think they are going to try to find some players around the league that have some hop to them, because they need guys fast enough to play with McDavid.” Source

Speed is abundant across the NHL and can be procured—some of it at less than prohibitive prices. Michael Grabner in New York won’t cost a lot, Matt Duchene in Colorado will. I think the Oilers are probably reaching the conclusion that Kailer Yamamoto needs another year before entering the NHL full time. I further believe the club isn’t sold on Anton Slepyshev in a feature role—not at this point in time, anyway.

That means a trade, or recall of Jesse Puljujarvi. Fans should be open to either, there’s something about the roster as currently constructed—and its usage—that doesn’t rhyme.

MCDAVID’S WINGERS IN PITTSBURGH

It is rare to see a veteran NHL coach spend an entire NHL game casting about for solutions but we saw just that thing on Tuesday night in Pennsylvania. Once Todd McLellan moved away from Kailer Yamamoto as 1R, he tried a lengthy list of the roster, including his clear preference Leon Draisaitl.

  • This is via NaturalStatTrick.
  • McDavid’s wingers included all forwards save Nuge and Jujhar Khaira.
  • The players under a minute could be coincidental or shuffling coming off a penalty kill, someone has a skate problem or missing a shift due to short-term injury. The guys getting three minutes or more had to be the coach trying out an idea.
  • After all the Nuge on RW talk over the summer, he didn’t try that idea. Makes sense, Leon was just coming back from injury. If chemistry doesn’t chime soon, we may in fact see that kind of deployment.

CONNOR MCDAVID ON CHEMISTRY

  • “It definitely takes a few games, 5-6 games to really get a good idea. To really, fully get chemistry with someone you have to play together for a long, long time. It’s been nice that Leon, Patty and I have been able to stick together for a long time now and I definitely hope that continues. It’s easy to find each other out there, because we’re all pretty comfortable.” Source

Connor McDavid and Kailer Yamamoto have been on the ice together for 61 minutes at 5×5, 65 percent Corsi and 65 percent shot share. Scoring chance share? 67 percent. High danger scoring chance share? 25-8, 76 percent. Goals for and against? 2-2. Kailer Yamamoto is going to be an excellent NHL player, I’m convinced he’s a better prospect than Jesse Puljujarvi long term, but this year he isn’t cashing chances. That’s not a shot at the young man, we saw Leon Draisaitl and Jesse Puljujarvi go through the same obstacles as rookies. Connor McDavid with Leon Draisaitl is a better plan. All day, all the time. Source

HELP!

The theme of today’s post is help! and the exclamation point is necessary. Todd McLellan needs the Nuge line to score goals and he badly needs Ryan Strome to post some 5×5 offense. The biggest issue is  finding a 1R for Connor McDavid to turn those Corsi’s and HDSC’s into goals for Edmonton. The answer to all three problems? Leon Draisaitl. I think Todd McLellan chooses Leon for the CMD line, leaving Peter Chiarelli to add some speedy winger for Nuge or Strome’s lines. I am hopeful they give Anton Slepyshev a try in the coming days.

CONNOR MCDAVID QUOTE TO FRANK SERAVALLI

  •  “I don’t know what it is. I just think guys haven’t been very good.” Source

That’s part of it, 10-bell chances have to cash at a higher rate and the goalie was off in the early days of the season. That said, this team needs a boost. Edmonton began the year with a 1R depth chart of Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto, Drake Caggiula, Zack Kassian. Perhaps we’ll see that lineup tonight. At some point, the Edmonton Oilers will move Yamamoto to Spokane unless the young man starts to cash these chances. Jesse Puljujarvi waits near the corner of North by Northwest, and trade market beckons.

LOWEDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We have a full boat of guests today, beginning at 10 on TSN1260.

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Where to play Leon, what to do about Kailer?
  • Scott Burnside, Senior Digital Correspondent, Dallas Stars. We talk to an old friend about an old nemesis for the Edmonton  Oilers.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN and NHL.com.  Top offensive pairs in the NHL, Kucherov and Stamkos are on fire, McDavid and Leon can carry a team.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. How frustrated is Connor McDavid?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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547 Responses to "Game Nine 2017-18: Stars at Oilers"

« Older CommentsNewer Comments »
  1. HT Joe says:

    treevojo: HT Joe

    Thanks for listing how 1.13 PPG would stack up in different seasons… it’s eye-openning.

  2. OmJo says:

    Bank Shot: Poor Nuge?

    I’m pretty sure that Lucic has a better ES scoring rate over his career than RNH does and RNH has been gifted star wingers for most of hs career.

    Time for Nuge to put on his big boy pants and prove that he can be an integral part of a second line worthy of being on a cup contender.

    Are 2017 Lucic and Strome on a contenders second line? I’m going to say no.

    You might as well give him Korpikoski and Yakupov as wingers. Oh, wait…

  3. Munny says:

    Stupid refs

  4. Munny says:

    HA! Sweet vengeance!

  5. treevojo says:

    Beauty

  6. Lowetide says:

    Connor McDavid scored.

  7. OmJo says:

    Only in the NHL is that not a penalty

  8. OmJo says:

    OmJo:
    Only in the NHL is that not a penalty

    Eat shit NHL!

  9. McSorley33 says:

    Yes

    Secondary scor…..oops nope.

    Connor!

  10. McSorley33 says:

    McDavid 1 Dallas 0

  11. Munny says:

    And they give it back.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Some poor coverage by Edmonton, 1-1

  13. Yeti says:

    OmJo: Eat shit NHL!

    Remember: “Gretzky, Gretzky, Gretzky” and breathe…

  14. verite says:

    RNH is pure garbage
    He cannot play hockey
    He cannot back check, pass or shoot
    Pure garbage

  15. jake70 says:

    terrible goal against

  16. Pouzar says:

    I see it time and again. Why doesn’t anyone on this team know how to lift the damn stick?

  17. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Plays like that I wonder if Nuge (and Gryba) are actually good defensively.

    So ready for a shake up.

  18. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Nuge Nuge Nuge, gotta be aware of who’s trailing there. Weak play

  19. BeerMe says:

    Sleppy has some jump tonight

  20. Pouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Plays like that I wonder if Nuge (and Gryba) are actually good defensively.

    So ready for a shake up.

    Weak sauce from both.

  21. jake70 says:

    Connor adjusting his approaches to breakaways….fantastic.

  22. wood99 says:

    Why is it we always put our worst defense on right after a goal? And how did you not cover Benn when he is driving the net. I Sometimes have to wonder about some of the decisions being made on the bench.

  23. OmJo says:

    That 62.5% isn’t great, it’s scary.

  24. Munny says:

    Good recovery by Gryba after the fan

  25. OmJo says:

    wood99:
    Why is it we always put our worst defense on right after a goal? And how did you not cover Benn when he is driving the net. I Sometimes have to wonder about some of the decisions being made on the bench.

    It’s good sportsmanship.

  26. wood99 says:

    If we score again,I think we should call a timeout and maybe they can remind them that they will be ready to play and not immediately give up the lead like they always seem to do.

  27. wood99 says:

    OmJo,

    Yes but I’m tired of always being the good sport….lol

  28. treevojo says:

    Nurses man strength is real.

  29. verite says:

    Has RNH been benched yet?

  30. Munny says:

    treevojo,

    Thought he was trying to take fingerprints with that attacker’s face against the corner glass

  31. fishman says:

    treevojo,

    Love it! Punishing Stars the way they used to do it to us!

  32. treevojo says:

    Boom

  33. Munny says:

    I’ll take it!

  34. Lowetide says:

    Maroon scored.

  35. Munny says:

    Castaway gets the credit.

  36. OmJo says:

    Nice goal by Methot there

  37. russ99 says:

    Nice goal. Get to the crease and good things happen. This all-outside and back to the point is maddening

  38. Ice Sage says:

    Drai uses a Methot stick

  39. Ice Sage says:

    russ99:
    Nice goal. Get to the crease and good things happen. This all-outside and back to the point is maddening

    Yeah I haven’t seen so many rim jobs since… (redacted)

  40. Lloyd B. says:

    It is becoming clear that Drai can drive his own line.

    Now if that McDavid kid could carry his own line without Drai.

  41. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Why did Nurse steal Benning’s mojo

  42. Lowetide says:

    After one period

    2-1 Edmonton
    14-12 shots Edmonton
    19-19 Corsi for 5×5

  43. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Why did Nurse steal Benning’s mojo

    Young defensemen. They’ll break your heart.

  44. McSorley33 says:

    OmJo,

    Secondary scoring!

    Methot got the messsage.

  45. Lowetide says:

    Khaira line 8-2 Corsi for in that period. Dandy for the 4line.

  46. GMB3 says:

    russ99:
    Nice goal. Get to the crease and good things happen. This all-outside and back to the point is maddening

    I thought you loved cycle hockey

  47. OmJo says:

    McSorley33:
    OmJo,

    Secondary scoring!

    Methot got the messsage.

    Unfortunately he didn’t do it with as much enthusiasm as Laine last year

  48. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Khaira line 8-2 Corsi for in that period. Dandy for the 4line.

    If TMc would leave Khaira/Slepy the **** alone and give them some ice time they may be able to do this more often.

  49. Yeti says:

    Lowetide:
    Khaira line 8-2 Corsi for in that period. Dandy for the 4line.

    Yes, a great sign. But they need to translate that into scoring or I fear they will be in the PB.

  50. jake70 says:

    Debrusk and Spector are going to talk draisaitl and mcdavid back together on line 1….. the mic is open again…funny….not sure they realize it…

  51. russ99 says:

    GMB3: I thought you loved cycle hockey

    I do, cycle hockey also includes the crease and between the circles. It’s only us that play the outside hot potato, god forbid we take a hit and still make a play.

    When McLellan’s system is clicking, we have at least one player near the crease, to cash rebounds, retrieve the puck and continue the cycle or pass to someone in a good shooting area.

  52. Professor Q says:

    OmJo: Still not sure why we haven’t seen Lucic-Drai-Slep back together

    Lucid dry sleeping?

  53. OmJo says:

    The problem with suggesting McDavid needs Draisaitl is that while Draisaitl was out his replacement was a raw rookie.

    I’m not trying to diminish 29s contribution to that line, but Yamamoto has no chance of replacing Draisaitl’s presence on that line. He was a handicap if anything.

  54. Munny says:

    jake70:
    Debrusk and Spector are going to talk draisaitl and mcdavid back together on line 1….. the mic is open again…funny….not sure they realize it…

    Did they say anything about Dougie Hamilton?

  55. jake70 says:

    Munny: Did they say anything about Dougie Hamilton?

    No…Debrusk wanted to talk 4th line….how well they playing tonite…Spector wanted to talk Draii McDavid….may talk 4th line in 2nd intermission if sitll playing well….

  56. OmJo says:

    OmJo:
    The problem with suggesting McDavid needs Draisaitl is that while Draisaitl was out his replacement was a raw rookie.

    I’m not trying to diminish 29s contribution to that line, but Yamamoto has no chance of replacing Draisaitl’s presence on that line. He was a handicap if anything.

    To add, last year McDavid produced just as good with Draisaitl as he did with Eberle. He needs somebody that can put his passes in the net. Yamamoto wasn’t that this season.

  57. OmJo says:

    Munny: Did they say anything about Dougie Hamilton?

    What about Hamilton?

  58. Pouzar says:

    Man shit gonna hit da fan in MTL

  59. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Eberle 0 pts -3 in a 4-2 game so far. Have to call a spade a spade and he isn’t playing well.

  60. Lowetide says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Eberle 0 pts -3 in a 4-2 game so far. Have to call a spade a spade and he isn’t playing well.

    Yeah, that’s fair. I do think waiting for 20 games is a good idea but understand the 2-5-1 record makes that difficult. (Not suggesting you NYC, just our group overall).

  61. OmJo says:

    Fuck that was a nice play…

  62. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Pkers not moving at all…

  63. Lowetide says:

    Nurse with another nice headman pass.

  64. Ice Sage says:

    Dallas making it look easy – too much skill to take lazy penalties

  65. Pouzar says:

    Nurse. On da tape.

  66. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, that’s fair. I do think waiting for 20 games is a good idea but understand the 2-5-1 record makes that difficult. (Not suggesting you NYC, just our group overall).

    Say what? Ha ha

  67. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Hmmm two really boneheaded plays by our so called defensive centres in Nuge and Testube

    Need to smarten up

  68. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, that’s fair. I do think waiting for 20 games is a good idea but understand the 2-5-1 record makes that difficult. (Not suggesting you NYC, just our group overall).

    New team. You are right correct we need to be fair. So this applies to Ryan Strome also

  69. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Dammit… these chances are so making my stomach churn…

  70. Munny says:

    Drai making Pouzar happy.

  71. OmJo says:

    Munny: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQ7EYRokluQ

    Ah, I’m slow, my bad. I just reread your comment and understood what you meant lol..

  72. Munny says:

    Have the pairings been changed for awhile?

  73. Munny says:

    Back to normal on the face off

  74. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Dammit Benn is annoying…
    Edit: and every goalie we’ve played this year

  75. Pouzar says:

    Terrible giveaway

  76. Munny says:

    Chances both ways. Spezza could have knitted sweaters for quintuplets there

  77. OmJo says:

    Looks like the ref pushed Larsson into the boards behind the net. Lol.

  78. OmJo says:

    “The dynamic duo, McDavid, Draisaitl… *plays a clip where McDavid passes to Maroon*… And Maroon.”

    Heh.

  79. fishman says:

    Wow Kharai is fast! Not sure about the rest of the tool box but he can skate.

  80. Lowetide says:

    Larsson 6:19 with Klefbom and 1:10 with Nurse
    russell 2:49 (8-0 Corsi) with Benning
    Nurse 4:22 with Gryba and 1:31 with Russell

  81. Munny says:

    Eberle could not have made that shot. However the result was the same. This time.

  82. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    Klef got a bit of time with Benning too.

  83. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    This game is there for the taking. They really don’t have an excuse not to pull this one out at home. Let’s go Oilers!

  84. Munny says:

    There are pictures of Piltlick without casts on!

  85. Pouzar says:

    Ryan Rishaug‏Verified account @TSNRyanRishaug 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Letestu O-zone penalty leads to a goal against, McLellan waits a shift or two and makes the switch with Strome. Revolving RW’ers continues

    #iTrustHim

  86. OmJo says:

    Munny:
    There are pictures of Piltlick without casts on!

    Photoshop until proven otherwise.

  87. fishman says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Need to stay out of the box. Stars have a very good pp and our special teams not that special.

  88. Pouzar says:

    Recovering Alcoholic drinking game:

    Every time an Oiler defenceman hits the net.

  89. OmJo says:

    I thought the Lucic-Nuge-Letestu line was supposed to be matched against the Seguin line?

  90. treevojo says:

    Nice

  91. Lowetide says:

    Nugent-Hopkins scored.

  92. Munny says:

    Niuge, nice rush after Oleksiak takes himself out of the play with a big hit.

  93. OmJo says:

    Nuuuuge!

  94. Ice Sage says:

    That’s a nice play.

  95. Melvis says:

    Atta boy Nuge. He gets his earlier faux pas back.

  96. Munny says:

    Roussell a brave boy.

  97. treevojo says:

    Brilliant defensive play by Russell in front of his net

  98. russ99 says:

    Nice goal, Nuge. Nice fight Gryba, tattooed him pretty good.

  99. OmJo says:

    Gryba punches faster than he skates.

  100. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OmJo:
    Gryba punches faster than he skates.

    Quoted for truth.

  101. OmJo says:

    I hate when people use literally.

  102. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    This game is there for the taking. They really don’t have an excuse not to pull this one out at home. Let’s go Oilers!

    The refs will make sure it stays close

  103. fishman says:

    OmJo:
    Gryba punches faster than he skates.

    HA HA good one!

  104. Ice Sage says:

    Refs doing their part.
    Can the Oilers score 4????

  105. Lowetide says:

    OmJo:
    I hate when people use literally.

    The worst. Literally.

  106. Pouzar says:

    I think Gryba’s skating and puck handling have improved over last year.
    Sacrilegious to say around here I know.

  107. flyfish1168 says:

    Gryba beat down should lift the Oilers

  108. Chachi says:

    Just checking in to say this is literally the worst reffing I’ve seen this season.

  109. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Chachi:
    Just checking in to say this is literally the worst reffing I’ve seen this season.

    Yup…

  110. treevojo says:

    OmJo:
    I hate when people use literally.

    I hate when people use the word hate.

  111. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    I think Gryba’s skating and puck handling have improved over last year.
    Sacrilegious to say around here I know.

    He looks more mobile for sure. Gryba can defend, his numbers so far this year have been excellent.

  112. Pouzar says:

    Man this PK is a limp d!ck.

  113. treevojo says:

    Nice block klef

  114. OmJo says:

    Oh Spezza. How the mighty have fallen.

  115. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Geez… Is Dallas pp that good or is our ok that bad???

  116. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Fucking refs do your god damn jobs!!!

  117. Chachi says:

    Literally the worst reffing

  118. fishman says:

    Special teams costing us again!

  119. OmJo says:

    Poop.

  120. Munny says:

    You have to wonder about the reffing the Oilers get.

  121. russ99 says:

    Chachi:
    Just checking in to say this is literally the worst reffing I’ve seen this season.

    If it wasn’t before, it is now.

  122. OmJo says:

    Does the back of the stick count for a high stick?

  123. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Well that was bullshit.

    Sigh skate through it boys!

  124. OmJo says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Geez… Is Dallas pp that good or is our ok that bad???

    Homerism aside, they do have a really good looking PP in this game.

    Chachi:
    Literally the worst reffing

    Grr…

  125. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Like I said the refs will keep it close

  126. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Geez… Is Dallas pp that good or is our ok that bad???

    The PK is literally that bad.

  127. flyfish1168 says:

    2 miss calls tonight both big. Time for these zebras to change glasses

  128. Munny says:

    Pouzar:
    I think Gryba’s skating and puck handling have improved over last year.
    Sacrilegious to say around here I know.

    Shooting more too, to my eye.

  129. Ice Sage says:

    Tough to play vs 2 teams at once

  130. Munny says:

    Finally get a call.

  131. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Stay out of the damn box with these weak ass penalties and they should comfortably win. The Oilers’ PK though has been awful this season.

  132. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Gotta score here guys…

  133. Pouzar says:

    First time I’ve noticed Hanzal all night.

  134. Chachi says:

    Woodguy can quote me on this: Hanzal is a piece of shit.

  135. OmJo says:

    Hanzal needs to get his faced punched in by Gryba. There. I said it.

  136. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Munny:
    Finally get a call.

    I mean…they HAD to call that one.

  137. Munny says:

    Tried to set up the same passing play Stars used on their last goal but it was no go

  138. OmJo says:

    Look at our PP compared to theirs. Yuck.

  139. flyfish1168 says:

    Lucic needs to hit the net

  140. VOR says:

    smellyglove:
    Advanced stats gurus – Help needed.

    Unless I am mistaken, PDO is a good proxy for central tendency for team performance given that it will revert to the mean. I’ve run a combined PDO for 10 years’ time for all NHL teams here: http://hkref.com/tiny/3toN7

    The top 5 “lucky”, are elite teams (over 10 year period).

    The bottom 5 “unlucky”, are bum teams, including our Awesome Edmonton Oilers, brought to you by EIG/Katz.

    What’s the deal here? Should this not be a random distribution?

    It is quite simple. PDO a term coined by Brian King, is a proxy for luck because over time it tends towards 100. In the real world PDO doesn’t reach 100 unless you look at 20 to 25 years worth of data and even then the range narrows but is still a range.

    Thus, most analyses I have seen, and I have read quite a few, make the following argument:

    Any player or team with a PDO over 102 can’t sustain that and will have a very good chance of moving towards 100 over time.

    Any player or team under 98 is probably going to move toward 100 over time and not go on sucking or at least not as badly.

    Now if you think about it this means the talent determined part of the difference in goal differential may have be as high as 4% times the number of shots taken by the top team which if I recall was Pittsburgh at around 2600 so about 104 goals. I seem to recall that the shot differential difference was 193 goals Washington’s Goal Differentials to Colorado’s Goal Differential.

    So the PDO as proxy for luck model says that 104 goals of that were probably down to skill and the other 89 goals were the result of outrageously good or bad luck. I think Washington shot 102.91 and Colorado was 96.94. So Washington was really lucky and Colorado was really unlucky. It isn’t as clear for other teams. You can say that any team with a PDO over about 101 was lucky and under 99 is unlucky based on ten years of data. If you use twenty years worth of data any team with a PDO above 100.5 was lucky and below 99.5 was unlucky.

    What I am trying to say is that PDO as a proxy for luck is a rule of thumb driven by the fact that PDO approaches 100 as the sample size grows.

    You can actually quite reasonably assign odds to a particular team moving up or down to a PDO of 100 because a team above a PDO of 100 at game 10 has a slightly increased chance of being closer to 100 by game 82 than it was at game 10. Any team below a PDO of 100 at game 10 has a slightly increased chance of being closer to a PDO of 100 than they were at game 10. The chance of movement towards 100 is roughly proportional to the distance they are from 100.

    The relationship as I am sure you can see is not that simple in the real world. Last year Colorado and Washington both proved their runs of luck could last for at least a full NHL season. Over time, however it is a close enough approximation that we can safely say PDO is a proxy for luck. With the proviso that things are never that simple or straightforward in the real world.

    I hope that helps.

  141. OmJo says:

    Strome replacing Letestu on 1PP.

  142. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Ffs!!! What bullshit is this witchcraft!!

  143. russ99 says:

    Good powerplay, should have scored. Way better than the usual stand around and hold the puck nonsense.

  144. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    This is true but Benn caught Letestu square with that butt end.

    Should have been blown dead and that PP is at 1-3 instead of 2-3

  145. OmJo says:

    flyfish1168:
    Lucic needs to hit the net

    I think TMac replaced him with Maroon.

  146. Munny says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): I mean…they HAD to call that one.

    Lol… well I would have thought the same about a blatant high stick and the long-time crackdown on sticks to the head… but no-ooo

  147. Pouzar says:

    F6ck if we lose this game…………

  148. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    This is true but Benn caught Letestu square with that butt end.

    Should have been blown dead and that PP is at 1-3 instead of 2-3

    ‘Tis also true.But their special teams > ours. 5 on 5 the Oilers can take this. Just stay out of the box.

  149. Lowetide says:

    3-3 after two periods, Stars grab a couple of goals in the period.
    Shots now 27-24 for Dallas (Stars had the edge 15-12 in the second)
    Corsi for now 49-35 Edmonton (Oilers had the edge 30-16 in the second)

    Stay out of the box and the Oilers win this game.

  150. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    We all know what will be the talking point in all the articles and on the radio if we lose this game…

  151. Rondo says:

    Lucic is so bad for the player he is paid to be. Trade him before it’s too late.

  152. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pouzar:
    F6ck if we lose this game…………

    I’ll be able to say I saw the oilers score 3 goals in a game in my lifetime at least

  153. OmJo says:

    I wonder if the Jets put Byfuglien out there 3v3?

  154. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Why is it that every other western conference team doing so well at the same time we falter?

  155. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Lowetide:
    3-3 after two periods, Stars grab a couple of goals in the period.
    Shots now 27-24 for Dallas (Stars had the edge 15-12 in the second)
    Corsi for now 49-35 Edmonton (Oilers had the edge 30-16 in the second)

    Stay out of the box and the Oilers win this game.

    Is it even possible for the oilers to stay out of the box?

    How many more years must I endure that fat walrus hefting his bulk back and forth behind the bench?

    I have no other questions at this time.

  156. Professor Q says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: Is it even possible for the oilers to stay out of the box?

    How many more years must I endure that fat walrus hefting his bulk back and forth behind the bench?

    I have no other questions at this time.

    John Lennon coaches the Oilers?

  157. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Rondo:
    Lucic is so bad for the player he is paid to be. Trade him before it’s too late.

    Yeah… chia will just ignore that NMC he etched into his contract…

  158. fishman says:

    Rondo:
    Lucic is so bad for the player he is paid to be. Trade him before it’s too late.

    And who exactly would take that contract????

  159. Professor Q says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Why is it that every other western conference team doing so well at the same time we falter?

    Anaheim, Arizona, San Jose, and Winnipeg all lost tonight.

  160. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Seriously… Benn is annoying

  161. deardylan says:

    Strome to McDavid

    I see beautiful days and I feel beautiful ways
    Loving that pass, everything’s gone
    midnight orange, white and blue.

  162. Pouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I’ll be able to say I saw the oilers score 3 goals in a game in my lifetime at least

    I will literally lose my mind.

  163. Rondo says:

    fishman,

    At the time Lucic said he took a discount. So maybe there are other teams out there.

  164. OmJo says:

    If the Oilers lose tonight it will literally be all your faults 😡

  165. OmJo says:

    Rondo:
    fishman,

    At the time Lucic said he took a discount. So maybe there are other teams out there.

    The Habs offered him more money.

    They still owe us for Petry.

  166. Professor Q says:

    OmJo: The Habs offered him more money.

    They still owe us for Petry.

    Kassian for Scrivens?

  167. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Rondo:
    fishman,

    At the time Lucic said he took a discount. So maybe there are other teams out there.

    No reason for him not to say that…I’m not saying he lied, but a white lie hurts no one in this case and endears him to the fans. Not so sure too many other teams would have gone 7 years. Maybe AAV was higher.

  168. fishman says:

    Rondo:
    fishman,

    At the time Lucic said he took a discount. So maybe there are other teams out there.

    Guessing there would be many willing to help him pack!

  169. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Ffs… stupid refs giving this game away

  170. Chachi says:

    Literally.

  171. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    I thought we were supposed to stay out of the box?

  172. OmJo says:

    Professor Q: Kassian for Scrivens?

    At the time, no. Hindsight doesn’t count.

  173. Younger Oil says:

    Fuck these refs.

    This league is downright unwatchable more than any professional league has the right to be.

    So fucking inconsistent it’s like WWE more than an actual sport.

  174. russ99 says:

    That was a ridiculous call.

  175. OmJo says:

    The NHL should be embaraaed by the reffing in this game.

  176. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    OmJo:
    The NHL should be embaraaed by the reffing in this game.

    They should be, but they won’t be because it’s all… in the plan…

  177. OmJo says:

    3 Stars in Bennings face after the whistle.

    When does Lucic start Lucicing?

  178. OmJo says:

    Blatantly targetting McDavid…

  179. fishman says:

    OmJo:
    3 Stars in Bennings face after the whistle.

    When does Lucic start Lucicing?

    When he gets to Montreal?

  180. russ99 says:

    Well at least we got the makeup call.

  181. Ice Sage says:

    OmJo:
    Blatantly targetting McDavid…

    Yep, that’s the game plan for 30 teams.
    Hitch knew the make-up call was coming – it’s in the script. May the Oilers write a winning ending…

  182. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wasn’t Lucic brought in so no one would mess with McDavid? Oh wait, no, he was brought in to score. No wait, he was brought in for intangibles.

  183. Lowetide says:

    OmJo:
    3 Stars in Bennings face after the whistle.

    When does Lucic start Lucicing?

    This isn’t a game to start running around, these two points are vital for Edmonton.

  184. OmJo says:

    Ice Sage: Yep, that’s the game plan for 30 teams.
    Hitch knew the make-up call was coming – it’s in the script.May the Oilers write a winning ending…

    Low-key hope we score on the PP and then put out Lucic-Kassian-Maroon Nurse-Gryba on the ice against the Seguin line just because.

  185. fishman says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Wasn’t Lucic brought in so no one would mess with McDavid? Oh wait, no, he was brought in to score. No wait, he was brought in for intangibles.

    Literally!

  186. OmJo says:

    Lowetide: This isn’t a game to start running around, these two points are vital for Edmonton.

    Not running around, just making his presence felt. Like Gryba did in the first period.

  187. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    HIT THE NET DAMMIT!!!

  188. russ99 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Wasn’t Lucic brought in so no one would mess with McDavid? Oh wait, no, he was brought in to score. No wait, he was brought in for intangibles.

    Once Todd gets over his love affair with propping up Nuge and his offense, Lucic will be with a center he can play with and he’ll be fine.

  189. OmJo says:

    Why did TMac deviate from the PP he ran at the end of the 2nd? Strome in for Letestu, Maroon in for Lucic. It looked good.

  190. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Anemic play on special teams tonight by the Oilers.

  191. Lowetide says:

    Khaira doesn’t take the penalty there but I don’t know what the hell he was doing in his own zone.

  192. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Well this is it

  193. Pouzar says:

    Khaira gets held by Radulov before that.

  194. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    That sucks. Where was Khaira going with that.

  195. OmJo says:

    Not sure what Khaira was trying to do there.

  196. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I think Juju is just testing what they’re going to actually call. Weak.

  197. Professor Q says:

    Can’t watch the game due to being in Emerg (have been here for 4 hours or so).

    Can’t seem to find any clip on the hit on McDavid that got him an Interference penalty?

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