Can’t Find My Way Home

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers are a team in the National Hockey League. That effort yesterday at Rogers Place has to be a concern to the organization. Have they tuned out the coach? Is the team sagging because the home cooking goaltending is subpar? Watching the Oilers body language after the second GA was like watching the Philadelphia Phillies after Mitch Williams walked the based loaded: Shoulders sagging, impending doom. This isn’t even mostly on the goalie, but the Edmonton Oilers simply aren’t right and that’s one area (home G) of concern.

If we continue with the early malaise, perhaps we see something rash, but this is the absolute worst time to make a move. While we’re on the subject, I do not believe the coach (or general manager) are in danger. The 103-point season buys Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan the rest of this season and into next, in my opinion, and the general manager gets at least one more coach before he’s through. The next big name out of town is a lefty blue, pretty sure.

  • Todd McLellan: “We worked hard for two years to get (the belief system) up. It’s being tested and we have to put some performances together.”

PIKES PEAK, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 1-2-0, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2016: 1-1-1, goal differential -3
  • Oilers in November 2017: 1-2-0, goal differential -2

As we’ve discussed a few times, 2017-18 is beginning to resemble McLellan’s first season in Edmonton. During the post game he discussed it (quote above) and it appears we are repeating Groundhog Day.

AFTER 13, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 5-8-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers 16-17: 9-3-1, goal differential +8
  • Oilers 17-18: 4-8-1, goal differential -13

Edmonton’s start in 2017-18 is now officially the worst of Todd McLellan’s run in Edmonton and that has to be of concern to coach, players and management. The home record is ghastly, the team is heading on a road trip that traditionally rips them a new one, and there’s so very little to build on based on the home stand just ended yesterday. This isn’t Nadir’s Raiders, but you can see Bonnie Raitt from here. Incredible to see this after a 103-point season.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 1-2-0, two points in three games

I’m feeling like my prediction of 7-7-2 for November may have been too strong, but we’ll run with it anyway. Edmonton’s eastern road swings have often involved trades and demotions, I think it’s fair to wonder if we see something change on the roster before or during the trip.

LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Benning went 22-11 including 10-3 with Mark Letestu’s line, 9-2 with Strome line. Pairing went 9-5 against Helm-Nielson-Wilson on the evening.
  • Nurse-Larsson were 25-21 and 0-1 in goals at 5×5. Went 7-12 with McDavid’s line, were 9-19 against Larkin-Abdekader-Glendening.
  • Russell-Gryba were 14-9 and 0-2 in goals at 5×5. Were 7-4 with the Strome line and 10-7 against Zetterberg-Tatar-Andreas Athanasiou line (in  7:25). Huh. That’s Detroit’s second line, no? Interesting.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 31 of 35, .886 on the evening.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

LAST NIGHT, FORWARDS

  • Jokinen-Strome-Caggiula had the best possession number, but were -2 and 10-2 SC on the evening. Unimpressed by coverage from the line, specifically Strome (and Jokinen tried but the veteran can’t get there). Went 11-2 against Mantha, 0-1 in GF.
  • Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian were 20-10 and had some looks, honestly I thought this line was pretty good. Kassian tried the backhand wraparound 20 times and I swear as God as my witness he broke his stick, looked at it, and played on using his skates but not throwing the stick away. The look on his face was like “screw it, maybe I’ll need it later.” Never seen that, ever. Not even Pierre Bouchard, who needed his stick to skate.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Yamamoto was the best of the skill lines, that is meant as faint praise. Naturalstattrick had the line 6-1 in HDSC’s, that seems high but the kid had a fine chance to cash and I was rooting for him.
  • The McDavid line was poor. You are never going to read this blog’s author rip 97, it’s just not going to happen. That said, he was not close to being the player we know and expect. Why? Flu, tight checking, the list of possibles is fairly long. 2-7 in HDSC’s, Henrik Zetterberg owned this line’s ass from Genesis to Revelations.

ERIC RODGERS NUMBERS

We are blessed to have Eric Rodgers running the numbers for the AHL Bakersfield Condors again this season. Eric began doing this back when the farm team was in Oklahoma City, and just kept on going God bless him.

Sincere apologies for the look, I’m color blind and it looked good in the studio. Gack! Anyway, it shows Dillon Simpson, Keegan Lowe, Mark Fayne and Ryan Stanton are the backbone and that Ethan Bear has the early clubhouse lead among the kids. Caleb Jones is struggling, we’ll look for improvement days gone down.

These numbers are based on Rodgers’ TOI estimates, we’ll drill down on those in the coming days. Interesting to see Joe Gambardella performing well so far, he’s a player we discussed as being a possible recall option in the summer. Jesse Puljujarvi’s offense is middling so far, among prospects I’d count Ethan Bear as having the most impressive number. Braden Christoffer is off to a surprising start.

https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/927308545686568961

The single biggest reason to sign Chris Kelly is the penalty kill. A year ago in Ottawa, Kelly’s on-ice SA/60 on the PK was 50.14. That number ranked him No. 3 among regular penalty killers (Pageau, Turris) and he replaces Matt Hendricks from a year ago (49.11, Hendricks was No. 3 among regular PK men as well last season).

The single biggest reason not to sign Chris Kelly is foot speed. Edmonton is slow, too slow, and Kelly is going to add more slow boots to the closet. You are going to find all manner of issue framing on the Al Gore today, the collective are carrying shivs and that’s fair based on 4-8-1. I’m not one of those who will say “the speed is gone, it’s over and we are dead in the ditch” because roster balance is reachable for this team. That said, adding another slow train isn’t a good answer and that probably means someone slow is going to sit (it might be Jussi Jokinen).

YAMAMOTO TO SPOKANE?

It makes sense. A fine young forward, he’s not ready. It’s time for the veterans to turn face to the wind, and time for this young man to dominate junior hockey one more time. We’ll see you in 2018, Kailer Yamamoto. I’m astonished at just how similar his season was to Leon’s and Jesse’s: 10-bell chances uncashed, plenty of promise throughout the piece.

The Boston Bruins fired Peter Chiarelli on April 15, 2015. One of his final moves was signing Frank Vatrano one month previous to being dismissed. In 92 NHL games, Vatrano has 18 goals, and brings speed plus a good shot to his game. I wonder.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A lot to talk about and a grand group of guests. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. Massive three-way trade and what’s next for the Oilers?
  • Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show. What did the Avalanche get?
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers & Eskimos discussion, might be a move to discuss by then.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN. A fascinating weekend in the NFL.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Chelios is a Dinosaur

Tough to evaluate the GM when the effort isn’t there. Tough to evaluate the coach when the lineup has holes.

Players need to dig in.

digger50

Spector says expect a Kelly signing.

So………faced with this poor performance problem the Oilers will only look as far as the practice rink. Typical Peter, he puts no effort into really looking or grinding out a deal. This guy is handy so sign him. Really, why was Kelly in camp in the first place? you know he’s not good enough. He’s not going to be any better than Jokinen.

But let’s sign him cause he’s been patient and now we owe him.

For gods sake stop taking the easy road. If this signing goes through it likely is a perfect representation of poor talent assessment and inability to accurately address the teams needs.

OriginalPouzar

frjohnk:
With the hole the Oilers are in, they are gonna ride Talbot hard. As long as he does not get injured or have some wobble, I could see him approach or even surpass last years games played

It would sure be helpful if he could approach last year’s level of play.

We’ve been out-goaltended in the large majority of our games.

frjohnk

With the hole the Oilers are in, they are gonna ride Talbot hard. As long as he does not get injured or have some wobble, I could see him approach or even surpass last years games played

Bag of Pucks

godot10

Anton Lander is a more useful player than Strome.He can win faceoffs and penalty kill.

K, this is clearly trolling. There’s no way anyone can actually believe this to be true.

workaroundaccount

We are 7pts back of wild card, with 5 teams tied for the two wild card spots, with ANA just 2pts back, and Minesota 4pts back but with games in hand. There are a lot of teams to jump. I forget where the cutoff is, but I think it is 8 pts out thanksgiving weekend and it’s gg. I don’t think it’s fair to say the season is over, but I think it is fair to say it most likely will be on April 7th. I don’t think this team is gonna finish at the bottom of the league, they probably get a top 10 pick as 10ish in the west.

dustrock

OriginalPouzar:
Who thinks we should and/or will see Laurent Broissoit in the nets tomorrow night?

He’ll get a game in there somewhere, but this team is going nowhere fast if Talbot doesn’t figure it out.

Gerta Rauss

SHILL83: or we will be looking to that draft broad once again

Treenas Oil…?

Side

godot10: Jordan Eberle has 4 goals and 11 points in 14 games…like clockwork, he is again on track for 25 goals and 65 points.His only down years were the two years under McLellan.Pouliot’s only down years (recently) were the years under McLellan.Kassian has taken two as braindead penalties this season as Pouliot has ever taken.

And it turns out all Justin Schultz needed was a good coach.Why couldn’t McLellan unlock him?

Anton Lander is a more useful player than Strome.He can win faceoffs and penalty kill.

Another post where you ignore reality and find something to blame Todd about.

You really think all Justin Schultz needed was a different coach? Laughable. You’re blinded by your hatred for McLellan and it’s honestly sad.

Gerta Rauss

OriginalPouzar:
Who thinks we should and/or will see Laurent Broissoit in the nets tomorrow night?

They’ve got a b2b on the weekend in NY and WSH-you’d think that LB gets one of those games

Maybe give him Jersey on Thursday..?

Snowman

McSorley33:

Maybe some bad luck with the JP draft. Tkachuck and Sergachev ( 12 points !)look really, really good.

Not blaming PC for taking JP – just saying maybe luck was not on our side.

Yeah this is an interesting one to watch going forward. I think it might’ve been one of the Pouzar’s who made the comment a week or so ago about Jarmo screwing the Oilers twice in JP’s draft. Can’t fault Peter for taking JP at the time but oh man…

It’s tough not to think Sergachev or Tkatchuk *spits* would look pretty good on the Oil this year.

Not giving up on JP by any stretch but I wonder if Sergachev will turn out to be the 2nd best from that draft (all due respect to Laine). He is really looking like a 15 year dominating presence on the back end.

God if he turns out to to produce 50-60 points a year maybe he even goes number one in a redraft.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar:
Who thinks we should and/or will see Laurent Broissoit in the nets tomorrow night?

Can he score goals without McDavid?

OriginalPouzar

Who thinks we should and/or will see Laurent Broissoit in the nets tomorrow night?

OriginalPouzar

classict: What you’re talking about is retooling like Chicago has had to do after they won Cups. Don’t you just feel like that’s absurd to have to even mention? We’re in the ELC years of the best player in the league…

Being in his ELC is meaningless to me – we have 8-9 years of Drai and McDavid with cost-certainty and I look for our general manager to build a consistent contender for most of that term. Sure, I hoped it woudl be this year but it may not – if not, I will look to the positive.

Yes, I’m disappointed that we may need a quick one-year re-tool now as it looked like we had taken steps forward to never look back, however, I could sure as heck see the benefit of adding 3-4 new talented prospects to our pool – not only will it help with value contracts but it will help with trade currency in future deadline deals (when we are buyers).

SHILL83

Lines I’d like to see for the Islanders Game:

19-97-18
27-29-58
24-93-91
36-55-44
16-26

25-6
77-83
4-62
81

PP1
18-29-27
77-97

PP2
93-55-19
25-58

We need to win more than two games on this road trip at the bare minimum or we will be looking to that draft broad once again. I thought I wouldn’t have to watch another NHL Draft Lottery for the reminder of Mcdavid’s contract with the Oilers. But Chia might have screwed that up big time. Best player in the world on our team and watching the past games has felt exactly like the Decade of Darkness. The minute they lose the lead in the game it feels like the game is over, the teams body language and how they continue to play is just pathetic. Very disappointed year so far.

OriginalPouzar

jimmers2:
On a sunnier note, in his first four games since… what is it? last December?Tyler Benson is 2G2A , 1G2A in his last game vs. Kamloops.Miles to go but a nice start.

This is a material prospect. The lost development time is substantial but Benson remains a high ceiling prospect and a healthy year parlayed in to him turning pro next year would be a huge boon for the organization. If a re-established Benson can be added to our prospect ranks, it will be a great help.

McSorley33

NYC-BACK-TO-TOKYO OIL (GENTLEMAN BACKPACKER) says:
November 6, 2017 at 3:04 pm
The Duchene trade is probably turning the heat up on Chiarelli. Hall is no less of a player.
Again the problem with Chia is not so much making the trades but what he is getting back asset wise and what he is replacing departed skill with.
I hope he exercises patience here and sits on his hands.
*******************************************************************************************
Agreed.

For me, coming up with ZERO from trading the #16 and #33 picks is going to haunt PC worse
that the Hall trade.

The 2015 kids are really showing well ….and they are just getting started.

The Hall trade we got back a good player.

We have 0 to show for PC’ s GR trade.

Zero is tough to overcome.

Maybe some bad luck with the JP draft. Tkachuck and Sergachev ( 12 points !) look really, really good.

3 transactions can really alter the course of a franchise.

1. Hall Trade
2. 2015 – picks flushed for Zero
3. Draft luck

Not blaming PC for taking JP – just saying maybe luck was not on our side.

classict

OriginalPouzar: I have, in no way, given up on he season nor the playoffs.I’ve soured in my optimism, sure (and I was guarded to start with thinking we’d be closer to the wild card than the division) but have not given up.

With that said, given our current prospect pool at forward (main high ceiling players being a few years away, Safin and Maksimov, and no guarantee that Yamamoto is ready next year, nor Benson), I’m not necessarily in favor of Chia trading material futures to try and right the ship right now.

In no way should Puljijarvi be traded for immediate help unless the return we get is value akin to what his value was at the draft.This player may very well live up to his draft day pedigree – he doesn’t even turn 20 until the season is over – lets not forget how young and raw he is.“Power forwards” are like d-men and often take longer to develop.

Of course, I wouldn’t be against improvements if the futures currency didn’t cost too much.

If some tinkering isn’t enough to right the ship, I am fine seeing how things go and, if the team happens to not be in contention come February, I am just fine selling Maroon, Letestu and Jokinen as playoff rentals.The first two should give us some nice picks/prospects to go along with our own pick in this deep and talented draft.

This one year could go along ways to setting us up for the future and giving us a better prospect pool for these important value contracts we’ll need going forward.

What you’re talking about is retooling like Chicago has had to do after they won Cups. Don’t you just feel like that’s absurd to have to even mention? We’re in the ELC years of the best player in the league…

GMB3

Bank Shot: I’m pretty sure last season was the first season in Pouliot’s career that he spent substantial time on the PK.

Losing him doesn’t matter. They do need an infusion of above average third/fourth line two-way guys though.

They need a few more Pisanis. I guess Jokinen was supposed to be one but he looks done.

Speaking of Pisanis, Pouliot played that role fairly well for most his tenure in Edmonton

The Duchene trade is probably turning the heat up on Chiarelli. Hall is no less of a player.

Again the problem with Chia is not so much making the trades but what he is getting back asset wise and what he is replacing departed skill with.

I hope he exercises patience here and sits on his hands.

Bank Shot

danny:
Paying Pouliot to play for another team, and failing to replace his PK ability is a pretty egregious error.

I’m pretty sure last season was the first season in Pouliot’s career that he spent substantial time on the PK.

Losing him doesn’t matter. They do need an infusion of above average third/fourth line two-way guys though.

They need a few more Pisanis. I guess Jokinen was supposed to be one but he looks done.

admiralmark

Who here can say with confidence…
a) This management team is very good or even ok at player assessment or talent assessment? Anyone?
b) This management team is very good or even ok at asset management? Anyone?
c) This GM has a vision that seems to very progressive and ahead of the curve? Anyone?

Anyone actually surprised they couldn’t build a competitive team around MCDavid?

I’m of the opinion that even the very best of GM’s are successful because they have a asst GM or at least 1 or 2 other voices that are adept to some degree and offer up sage advice. Not to say anyone else is to blame cuz the buck stops at Chiarelli but who are the voices around him during these last couple years? If the possiblity is its an OBC member then how the f*^ck can anybody be surprised by this situation?

Where the hell is Bob Nicholson? He needs to reassess ASAP.

leadfarmer

godot10: Jordan Eberle has 4 goals and 11 points in 14 games…like clockwork, he is again on track for 25 goals and 65 points.His only down years were the two years under McLellan.Pouliot’s only down years (recently) were the years under McLellan.Kassian has taken two as braindead penalties this season as Pouliot has ever taken.

And it turns out all Justin Schultz needed was a good coach.Why couldn’t McLellan unlock him?

Anton Lander is a more useful player than Strome.He can win faceoffs and penalty kill.

Whats more interesting is he got taken off Tavares’ wing and has amazing chemistry with Barzal. The Islanders need to erect a statue for Chia. He single-handedly saved that franchise. You think Tavares was going to stay after this offseason without Chia’s gifts think again. Now that Chia gave them 2/3 of a very good second line they are in a good playoff spot and future looks a lot brighter. And they have a bunch of draft picks.

GMB3

stush18: Meh. I think it would be pretty easy to talk about the positives if others were.

Not a peep of nuge, slepy, sekera almost being back, benning improving his play, Larsson engaging more offensively when paired with nurse, lucic looking faster this year, maroons point streak coming to an end at seven games, benson, Safin, makismov, wells and berglund all killing it in the minors, the unreal job weve done drafting lately,the college free agents we keep signing, and whatever else might be going on.

I understand it can’t always be positive, but my god is anyone even trying?

When this team hits a winning streak (and they will), are we going to win sign TMac and chiarelli to extensions instead of firing them?

Unlikely, because it’s easy to be negative.

Lucic looking faster? Yet still to slow. Let’s celebrate moral victories like it’s 2014

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

Woodguy, how has Hamonic fared in Calgary. Just curious if you’ve looked at him.

As predicted, Smith is doing very well for them. Hes a jerk, but a pretty good goalie

godot10

stush18:

The oilers have about 3.5 million in cap space right now, and guess what the difference between eberle and stromes cap hit is? So you could replace stromes 1 goal with ebs 2, and leave absolutely no cap space.

Jordan Eberle has 4 goals and 11 points in 14 games…like clockwork, he is again on track for 25 goals and 65 points. His only down years were the two years under McLellan. Pouliot’s only down years (recently) were the years under McLellan. Kassian has taken two as braindead penalties this season as Pouliot has ever taken.

And it turns out all Justin Schultz needed was a good coach. Why couldn’t McLellan unlock him?

Anton Lander is a more useful player than Strome. He can win faceoffs and penalty kill.

jimmers2

On a sunnier note, in his first four games since… what is it? last December? Tyler Benson is 2G2A , 1G2A in his last game vs. Kamloops. Miles to go but a nice start.

OriginalPouzar

McSorley33:
I know this will not be popular but I would advocate doing nothing this year except possibly trying to unload veterans at the deadline for draft picks ( looking at Jokinen )

I have, in no way, given up on he season nor the playoffs. I’ve soured in my optimism, sure (and I was guarded to start with thinking we’d be closer to the wild card than the division) but have not given up.

With that said, given our current prospect pool at forward (main high ceiling players being a few years away, Safin and Maksimov, and no guarantee that Yamamoto is ready next year, nor Benson), I’m not necessarily in favor of Chia trading material futures to try and right the ship right now.

In no way should Puljijarvi be traded for immediate help unless the return we get is value akin to what his value was at the draft. This player may very well live up to his draft day pedigree – he doesn’t even turn 20 until the season is over – lets not forget how young and raw he is. “Power forwards” are like d-men and often take longer to develop.

Of course, I wouldn’t be against improvements if the futures currency didn’t cost too much.

If some tinkering isn’t enough to right the ship, I am fine seeing how things go and, if the team happens to not be in contention come February, I am just fine selling Maroon, Letestu and Jokinen as playoff rentals. The first two should give us some nice picks/prospects to go along with our own pick in this deep and talented draft.

This one year could go along ways to setting us up for the future and giving us a better prospect pool for these important value contracts we’ll need going forward.

workaroundaccount

jtblack:
Riddle me this. Is Duchene that much better than Turris? I honestly believe they are equals … OTT gave up a lot.

Nash GM is awesome. 3 Huge trades in last 3 years. Love them all.

Reminds me of the Isaiah Thomas for Kyrie deal. Kyrie is the better player, but not so much better he was worth all the extras Boston had to add.

leadfarmer

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
leadfarmer,

So this sentiment has been bubbling under the blog here all year and I’m intrigued by it.

The NJDs are similar to Colorado a few years back IMO. Based on all the advanced stats, except for on occasion HDCF, the Devils routinely get run over by other teams. But they have a couple of elite players (Hall, Hischier, Schnieder).

A large enough sample size should show us that this will eventually catch up with them and their record will start to reflect it.

Years ago during the DoD many folks on this blog quoted Darrel Sutter and his musings on possession and the proper way to coach and or build a team. If you have the puck more often than the opposition you will win more often than not.

Now there is a very sizable chunk of folks who seem to have tossed that mantra out the window in favor of a speed mantra. But I’m not quite sure what that speed mantra is, how it realistically translates into gameplay, or if I should attempt to buy into it.

As a quick example

The Kings are not a fast team, the Kings advanced stats are mediocre at best, the Kings are tops in the Pacific. The Leafs are a fast team, the Leafs leak chances against while creating a ton the other way, they haven’t been able to outscore their mistakes lately.

Of course the answer here is somewhere in the middle and in all actuality I don’t think the Oilers are that far off.

For the first few minutes of yesterdays game the Oilers out-skated, hit and chanced the Wings. Two goals later they rolled over and died. Today the “after death” part is being used to showcase the team as a whole and I’m not sure that is right.

It took me a long time to come around to advanced stats (I’m very weary of “noise” in the data) but the stats tell me today the Oilers record is less than the sum of its parts. AKA they shouldn’t suck this bad.

A lot of folks seem to be taking the record to say that the underlying stats aren’t telling the truth and in fact the team is gaming them in order to pump up corsi. Except for the vast majority of games they are winning things like FF and HDCF battles and both of those are better indicators of shot and chance quality from what I understand. Even if there is some score effects there haven’t been enough blowouts this year to show that the team is gaming the stats. The Oilers have lost a lot of 1 goal games that last year they managed to push to overtime.

Long story short – folks seem to want to toss out the stats to fit the description. We learned as a group here during the DoD that this results in misplaced optimism and misdiagnoses re: problems.

Yes the Wings played a tight checking game, no argument. But the Oilers also tossed in the towel.

Those two things impact each other.

I’m not trying to say speed isn’t important, but its only one component to a game and for anyone that has played the game can attest (and I know there are lots of us here) is hugely dependent upon effort, something that was in short supply last night.

Cassandra,

Kyle Turris will be 29 when that 6×6 contract kicks in, his last contract was 4x$3.5 and his career high in points when he signed that deal was 29 over 6 NHL seasons. He outperformed that contract and has put up three 50+ point seasons.

Leon is 22, has 3 NHL seasons under his belt and has two 50+ point seasons to his resume.

I think Leon is slightly overpaid sure, but context is important here no?

Yes we used to think it was just great to have the puck on the stick for the simple reason opposition cant score and teams were more than happy to cycle the puck endlessly and get a shot on goal. Teams have learned to beat out those big cycling teams with speed. Now it is really hard to break down a defensive system once it is inplace unless your name is Conor McDavid. So getting a corsi event now before the defensive system can be established is key. Only way to do that is good passing and speed. We always thought that carrying the puck in is so much better than dump and chase but part of the reason is it is not easy to win a board battle and get a scoring chance before defensive help comes and if you do get control chances are the defensive system is already in play for that situation. Now some teams dont necessarily have the fastest players but they play a fast game with passing.
So the question is are those poor advanced teams still getting a lot of high and medium chance corsi events on the rush and less than 5 seconds after entering the offensive zone. That is yet to be determined. But it really seems like teams that can counter attack with speed such as last years Sens can significantly outplay their advanced stats

jtblack

Riddle me this. Is Duchene that much better than Turris? I honestly believe they are equals … OTT gave up a lot.

Nash GM is awesome. 3 Huge trades in last 3 years. Love them all.

stush18

danny:
Paying Pouliot to play for another team, and failing to replace his PK ability is a pretty egregious error.

Creating cap space by shipping Eberle and not using the space to plug holes is a pretty egregious error.

This team’s problems I guess weren’t too predictable, nobody could sensibly predict a 5% shooting pctg, or bottom of the league special teams. But the clock is running on where to go from here.

Jokinen has been a good PKer before. He hasn’t worked out.

Again, easy to bash chiarelli for sending away a 4 million dollar pk specialist when the team is struggling on the PK, but it doesn’t admit for the fact that chiarelli bought low on jokinen who should have been able to easily reproduce his production.

Chiarelli tried to fill the cap space with franson, who turned USB down and signed with Chicago.

??‍♂️

who

Cassandra: Draisatl’s contract is his first contract post ELC and hence came at a discount to a UFA contract.In order to compare the two contracts you need to inflate Draisatl’s contract to UFA levels.This is why the justification for the deal was that Draisatl would get “10-12 milliion on the UFA market” and hence it was a good deal.Therefore Draisatl needs to be twice as good as Turris to justify the deal.

Now, that’s just a rough comparable.The right way to compare them would be in terms of marginal production.If 40 points is replacement level, and Turris is a 60 point player and Draisatl is an 80 point player, then Turris is +20 and Draisatl is +40.That would make Draisatl twice as valuable, and hence justify the contract.

I think you are tying yourself in knots trying to compare the two contracts. Why don’t you just simplify it down to the most important question.?
Would you rather have Turris for the next 7 years at 6 mil or Drai for the next 8 years at 8.5 mil? That’s a pretty easy decision in my opinion.

stush18

digger50: Understand your comment was general but will reply.

The difference between optimism and pessimism here is based on previous knowledge of the problem. If a random event such as injury occurs then I agree let’s pitch in and look for the positives. When you knew you had a problem and fail to act or act with willful blindness then that is reason to be upset and pessimistic.

This is not 20/20 hindsight. Players can be evaluated and projected.

All this was discussed at length this summer. Often 20/20 hindsight can be applied to a single event such as why did we take Benson over Debrincat. However once poor decision making becomes a pattern across the board I think the hindsight model does not apply.

Meh. I think it would be pretty easy to talk about the positives if others were.

Not a peep of nuge, slepy, sekera almost being back, benning improving his play, Larsson engaging more offensively when paired with nurse, lucic looking faster this year, maroons point streak coming to an end at seven games, benson, Safin, makismov, wells and berglund all killing it in the minors, the unreal job weve done drafting lately, the college free agents we keep signing, and whatever else might be going on.

I understand it can’t always be positive, but my god is anyone even trying?

When this team hits a winning streak (and they will), are we going to win sign TMac and chiarelli to extensions instead of firing them?

Unlikely, because it’s easy to be negative.

Mr. D.

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Coach is frustrated.Re: Kailer: ““He played a better game tonight than the past three he participated in. He was one of our quicker forwards,” said McLellan.hmmmm….

A. He hasn’t performed with top lines.
B. No burning a contract year.
C. Kids earned some decent cash.
D Kelly will improve team defense.
C. Team needs experience and leadership.
Great decision for player and team.

danny

Paying Pouliot to play for another team, and failing to replace his PK ability is a pretty egregious error.

Creating cap space by shipping Eberle and not using the space to plug holes is a pretty egregious error.

This team’s problems I guess weren’t too predictable, nobody could sensibly predict a 5% shooting pctg, or bottom of the league special teams. But the clock is running on where to go from here.

digger50

stush18: I

Understand your comment was general but will reply.

The difference between optimism and pessimism here is based on previous knowledge of the problem. If a random event such as injury occurs then I agree let’s pitch in and look for the positives. When you knew you had a problem and fail to act or act with willful blindness then that is reason to be upset and pessimistic.

This is not 20/20 hindsight. Players can be evaluated and projected.

All this was discussed at length this summer. Often 20/20 hindsight can be applied to a single event such as why did we take Benson over Debrincat. However once poor decision making becomes a pattern across the board I think the hindsight model does not apply.

workaroundaccount

Jordan Eberle Pts update 4-7-11 in 14gp. Last two came against Col though, so I’m not sure if they count or not. Every deal prior to Eberle I at least saw the reasoning. Reinhart targetted the wrong player, and Hall felt like an overpay at the time, but they had some sense of logic to them. The Eberle deal was basically them being unhappy with Eberle as a 2RW, and therefore replaced him with a bunch of mediocre prospects who collectively will never score as much as he did last year. If you trade eberle, then trade for Neal, that would make sense. Just burning assets is ridiculous.

Woodguy v2.0

Shane:
I really can’t believe how little everyone is talking about the HUGE impact that losing Sekera has had on this roster. He helps the PK, PP, the Russell, takes heavy(top opp) minutes for the dcorps and is a OT demon. I truly believe IMO that that’s the biggest factor so far in this seasons failures. He makes this team so much better.

You’re right.

Klef struggled in the first part of the year and Seksey was the best Dman on the roster and helped keep everything afloat.

Kept Russell from getting caved like we see this year too.

Huge loss

workaroundaccount

Starting to think you can’t just put a bunch of tweeners in key positions and claim you have depth…

OriginalPouzar

Great day in NYC so far – lots of oilers vitrol plus roster moves and 109 comments to catch up on….

Cassandra

who: If Draisaitl makes 8.5 and Turris makes 6 why does Drai have to be twice as good?I am not following your math here.
At those numbers Drai looks like the better deal to me.

Draisatl’s contract is his first contract post ELC and hence came at a discount to a UFA contract. In order to compare the two contracts you need to inflate Draisatl’s contract to UFA levels. This is why the justification for the deal was that Draisatl would get “10-12 milliion on the UFA market” and hence it was a good deal. Therefore Draisatl needs to be twice as good as Turris to justify the deal.

Now, that’s just a rough comparable. The right way to compare them would be in terms of marginal production. If 40 points is replacement level, and Turris is a 60 point player and Draisatl is an 80 point player, then Turris is +20 and Draisatl is +40. That would make Draisatl twice as valuable, and hence justify the contract.

CrazyCoach

Georges: Does what is going on in the dressing room lead to losses or do losses lead to questions about what is going on in the dressing room?
McLellan had a locker room problem in his first year. The roster was almost completely turned over. If there’s a locker room problem (not saying there is), how should we interpret that? Kinda quick to be back in that place, no?
Also, do you think McLellan’s statements and decisions early in the season may have done some damage to the belief system he said it took 2 years to build? Aren’t coaches careful with what they say in public?

That first question is tough to answer, but in my experience when things are going well, a coach is never questioned, ever, even if he has little to do with the teams success. The inverse of that is that when things go bad, people look to the coach. It’s a tough position to be in, constantly second guessed, even when you win. I know that when the losses come, everyone’s patience gets worn down very thin and the little things start to bug you, and any good sports psychologist would tell you, the mental focus may not be as good as it was a month ago. Theoretically, people go into slumps and supposed hot streaks, but they always play to the middle of where they are career wise. It all balances out.

TMac had dressing room issues the first year he was here and some of the characters have been cleared out. That happens when a new guy comes in. Every coach is different and they all want a certain style. If you want to know how that works, find 20 coaches and ask them who the greatest hockey player of all time is. Chances are, you are going to get 10 names thrown at you from 20 coaches (It’s Gretzky of course). Coaches say that because they have a certain bias of what they think hockey players should be, and how hockey should be played. I know I do. TMac came here, found players that didn’t fit his style, and asked for new ones that weren’t going to fit. Simple as that.

As far as what he says in public, well, you have to measure your words and you have to pick your spots. I tended to keep things in house and was the cliche machine for the local media here, never saying we had an issue with this or that. I tended to put the blame on me saying I needed to get the team more prepared. Of course, I was working with kids, but I never blamed anyone, even refs. I always felt that if you held back fury in public, addressed the issue one on one with the player and helped them save face, then they would go to war for you. But, I have never dealt with million dollar players either and the entourage they bring (agents).

Woodguy v2.0

For the record special teams is a bigger problem than 5v5.

Why they screwed around with PP1 after they went 11gf/60 last year is mystifying.

PokeCheck

stush18:

Who are you going to sign for a backup that is younger, cost controlled, and better than brossoit? Who had a 928 SV% in the NHL last year. Who has lost 1 of our 8 losses this fall.

Brossoit’s numbers aren’t the issue. The problem is that the coach (for whatever reason) won’t play him. Not when Cam’s had a bad game, rarely when Cam should have been pulled 2 goals ago, and only sometimes on back-to-backs. It’s hard for any of us to know what the Oilers have with this player, but the coach clearly has a low opinion based on deployment, and I believe he used his backups far more frequently in San Jose.

Woodguy v2.0

Re: “It’s the same team as last year,they can’t be this bad”

The top 4 Oiler goal scorers without McDavid on the ice last year:

RNH – 10
Pouliot – 8
Eberle – 8
Pitlick – 8

It’s not the same team. scoring ability went out.

Lucicship had 3 or 4 5v5 goals without 97 and “horrible year bum” Pou had 8

This was talked about all summer.

Goal scoring ability is a thing.

All 3 of those players have career sh% above 12

Jokinen is around 7.6 in the last 4 years and Strome is a hair over 8.

who

Cassandra:
There is no fixing this.The team will get better puck luck (or not) but this team was never good enough because the general manager has systematically traded away their good players.

Think on this.

Remember when we were told that Draisatl had to be paid 8.5 M on an RFA contract because in a few years he would be a 10-12 million dollar player as an UFA.Well a good general manager just traded for Kyle Turris and signed him to a 6×6 million dollar contract.Is Draisatl twice as good as Turris?Because Chiarelli is paying him to be.

6×6 million of Chiarelli bucks gets you Milan Lucic, a player we knew (with reasonable certainty) was not worth that money.

Other teams trade a second round pick for Trevor van Riemsdyk.Chiarelli signs Russel to 4×4 to play on the third pairing and cough up pucks for goals.What happened to his magical shooting percentage suppression abilities?

Meanwhile Matt Barzal has 5 assists.Eberle has two goals.Hall is the best player on the ice shift after shift, even though his team is pretty bad (again).

There is no balanced take on Chiarelli.Trying to be balanced here is to demonstrate an inability or unwillingness to think.

If Draisaitl makes 8.5 and Turris makes 6 why does Drai have to be twice as good? I am not following your math here.
At those numbers Drai looks like the better deal to me.

Woodguy v2.0

–hudson–: Think the Devils also are missing Palmieri and Marcus Johanson with injuries.Two good top six wingers.

Zajac `as been out all year with surgery as well.

Not fast but was the tough minute C with Hall for most of last year.

Woodguy v2.0

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
russ99,

But none of those feed into the narrative that this roster is hollow to the core and Chia ruined a dynasty in the making!

I kid but only to a point, generally I see it like you do.

This overwhelming focus on speed is the new size IMO. Doesn’t really have too much to do with anything but its easy and makes for a great soundbite.

Team speed has nothing to do with forgetting how to tie up a guys stick or shoulder checking to the middle of the ice on back checks. Nor does it have anything to do with standing still on special teams. Those are the problems overwhelming our Oilers.

Speed means a player is in the right spot to make a play offensively or defensively

Speed means the ability to turn a turn over into an odd man rush which has a sh% of ~22%

When’s the last them the Oilers had a 2 on 1 when McDavid wasn’t on the ice?

Speed means you have the ability to get back and turn a 2 on 1 into a 2 on 2.

Speed means back checking fast enough to pick up the trailer and negate a scoring opportunity.

Speed means the ability to skate the puck out of trouble when the passing lanes are close off.

Speed means making it to a 50/50 puck a hair sooner and making it a 60/40 puck

Speed means you} Dman can step up on his man at the blue to deny an entry and creat a turnover because his covering forward is in the right spot and moving the right way.

There’s dozens and dozens of examples where playing fast and having speed makes the game easier and makes your team better.

DET forwards were skating by the attacking Oilers to negate a lot of offense before it happened yesterday and it happens every game.

--hudson--

leadfarmer:
Cassandra,

Why are the devils bad?I mean they’re not a good team but they built a fast team around hall.Their advanced stats suck but fast puck moving teams can outplay their advanced stats while slow teams can have good advanced stats but can’t get a Corsi event without the opposition d getting set up at which point it is very hard to score.

Think the Devils also are missing Palmieri and Marcus Johanson with injuries. Two good top six wingers.