Rockin´ Pneumonia And The Boogie Woogie Flu

by Lowetide

For the Edmonton Oilers’ players, today is a very lonely place. The general manager is disappointed, the media brought out the hammer yesterday and from what we can tell influenza has come for its annual November visit. In the words of Jimmy Cox, nobody knows you when you’re down and out. In order to rise, a low point must be reached. Perhaps it was yesterday, fittingly in Dallas and against the Stars. There’s still time to turn north.

THE ATHLETIC

The special Lowetide offer is here. I want to thank so many of you for coming over and am especially pleased that the comments are increasing. Are you enjoying the experience? Let me know.

FLY BACK NORTH, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 3-6-1, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in November 2016: 3-6-1, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in November 2017: 4-5-1, goal differential -3

Despite yesterday’s loss, this edition of McLellan’s Oilers remains the most successful November crew. Yesterday’s loss left the fan base miserable but I think the team is better than they’ve shown. Once the flu bug (remember McDavid and Klefbom missed the skate Friday morning) is complete, Edmonton should be more competitive. That’s not the same as saying they are a complete team (they are not) but there should be wins on the way even with no roster changes.

AFTER 20, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 7-12-1, goal differential -8
  • Oilers 16-17: 11-8-1, goal differential +7
  • Oilers 17-18: 7-11-2, goal differential -13

Last year’s Oilers team is the outlier here, this year’s model looks like 2015-16 all over again. This is us. That 2015-16 team won 31 games, surely this crew does far better than the team that lost rookie McDavid for much of the season.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 2-1-1)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 4-5-1, nine points in 10 games

Edmonton needs six points from this trip, that hasn’t changed. They are not a confident bunch and Cam Talbot doesn’t look like he’s close to stealing a game in the next while. The season remains a frustrating series of stops and starts, no relief in sight.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Larsson went 17-6 and 2-1 in HDSC’s when they were on the ice together. Went 8-6 with Strome line and 6-2 with McDavid, 4-0 with Letestu. Went 6-3 against Benn-Janmark-Radulov.
  • Klefbom-Benning went 11-4 and 2-1 in HDSC’s, but 0-2 in GF. Damn. Went 7-1 against Shore-Seguin-Ritchie, We know Klefbom missed practice Friday morning (reportedly flu). Benning looked out of sync, too.
  • Russell-Gryba went 11-8 including 6-3 with the Nuge line and 7-6 against Benn-Janmark-Radulov. I think Russell may also have the flu, the sights on his passes were poor and he was a house by the side of the road on many sorties.
  • Cam Talbot did not have a strong game beginning to end. I believe Talbot is a good goalie, he’s in a slump along with his teammates. Do you bet on him to recover? I do.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Khaira-Letestu-Kassian had good possession numbers (8-2) and were 3-1 in high danger scoring chances. Khaira is coming on now, Kassian got another breakaway. I’m a little worried about Letestu, appears a step slow currently (might have the flu, too).
  • Maroon-McDavid-Caggiula had a high event afternoon, McDavid posting three points and Caggiula firing two goals in the game. Went 4-7 as a line, 1-4 HDSC and 1-3 GF. That’s terrible. McDavid’s last two games (with Maroon-Leon and then Maroon-Caggiula) tell me he’s with the flu. My takeaway from the last two games is 97 is unwell but gutting it out, your mileage may vary. I hope coach McLellan gives it another shot.
  • Cammalleri-Strome-Puljujarvi went 11-5 together but 0-2 in HDSC’s. It was a nothing rhymed afternoon.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Draisaitl were my pick for most disappointing line. Went 8-3 together but 2-3 in HDSC’s and didn’t impact the game as hoped. Line was not the defensive Choatica of the McDavid line but neither did they create much at all. I understand the reasons why McLellan ran this line yesterday, but hope we see Leon on another line in the coming week.

https://twitter.com/e_presement/status/932004535681167361

It’s possible. I don’t believe the Oilers will be in the lottery at the end of this season but do believe it’s reasonable to talk about this group as a non-playoff crew. I’ll be writing a piece at The Athletic today on the subject (should be up later today or first thing tomorrow) and how things got this way. I won’t be talking draft until January.

LE MONTREAL

Based on Nick Kypreos verbal from last night, the Habs might be poised to complete the flushing of a pretty damn good hockey team that began with the  P.K. Subban trade. Among those who could be available are Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, Carey Price and Shea Weber. I think both forwards are interesting.

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godot10

who: The funny thing about Kassian is that, despite all the struggles and turmoil at the right wing position, he has never been given a shot with a skill center for any period of time.
They have literally auditioned every other warm body on the roster, yet Kassian remains stapled to Letestu and the fourth line.
Did Chia and Tmac not discuss this before they gave him the new contract?

Kassian got an extended period at the start of last season with Lucic and Nugent-Hopkins. He produced eff all.

godot10

OmJo:
PunjabiOil,

The thing about Kassian is he’s not put in a position to produce offensively 5v5, playing with Letestu and whoever else on the 4th line for 10 minutes a game. He gets no PP time and very few looks in the top 6. Where is the offense supposed to come from?

I think he’s a better offensive player than he’s shown. He’s fast, has decent hands, and plays physical. To be honest I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Maroon at the trade deadline and having Kassian replace him on McDavids wing and the 2PP for the rest of the season, if we really are out of the hunt by then.

Pitlick produced in Kassian’s spot last year with Letestu and Lander. If you are earning nearly $2 million on the 4th line, you had better be a 4th line river pusher. And Kassian isn’t pushing the river. He is significantly underperforming his contract.

Kassian was given one year too much in duration, and about $500K too much. Security has not been good for his effort or production this year. The bad penalties are returning.

who

PunjabiOil:
The funny thing about Kassian is that, despite all the struggles and turmoil at the right wing position, he has never been given a shot with a skill center for any period of time.

He absolutely has got time with Hall and RNH.

When that it happened, the numbers showed he dragged down their numbers.

He’s not a long-term solution in the top 6.Never has been.

Don’t remember him playing with Nuge and Hall but it must have been the year he was acquired. He was fat, slow and undisciplined. Totally different player right now.

OriginalPouzar

Alright, the boys had a day off yesterday to, hopefully, stew in the ramifications of yet another loss in a game that they should have/could have won. I’m hoping these players have the professional pride where these losses and the aggregate of the losses actually effects them.

I’m hoping for a solid practice today and then lets get going on the rest of this road trip.

STL is a tough team but there are winnable games on this trip and I’m still expecting them to get a good 6 points out of the remaining four games.

OmJo

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Kassian is not a better offensive player than he has shown over his career. He is a bottom six winger with some skill, skating ability and a gritty streak.

Isn’t that what Maroon was before we traded him for a 4th and Gernat, with retained salary?

At a quick glance, they had similar numbers throughout their careers, except for when Maroon played with Getzlaf and Perry.

who

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
Not dissing Kassian here, just cautioning against assuming he has more scoring in him if given a bigger role. More scoring than 4th line Kassian, sure. But more than Maroon, Caggiula or Slepy? That is what we need to focus on.

Don’t know if I would assume he will score more than Maroon, although we will never know unless he is given the same opportunities. But scoring more than Caggulia or Slepeshev at this point is not setting the bar very high.

OriginalPouzar

Not sure Rattie is going to get recalled any time soon.

His issue is foot-speed and its likely that his lack of speed will limit him to being a good producer in the AHL but a tweener who can’t produce at the NHL level.

Who do you take out of the lineup for him?

Seismic Source

When’s the Rattie recall? This is what we got him for.

OriginalPouzar

Looking forward to seeing what the lines look like at practice.

Presumably the coach doesn’t revert back to Drai at 1RW and goes with a semblance of what was run last game to give the lines a chance to form some chemistry.

Not dissing Kassian here, just cautioning against assuming he has more scoring in him if given a bigger role. More scoring than 4th line Kassian, sure. But more than Maroon, Caggiula or Slepy? That is what we need to focus on.

hags9k,

Not sure why what I said was unfair. I listed what he brings to the table, much of it positive. I also mentioned the other side of the coin.

A number of commenters here wanted to see him top 6 or even with McDavid last year. One poster here wanted to see the same this year, granted he or she gave the caveat that this would be if Maroon were to be traded.

I think it is a bad idea to assume Kassian could do well in that role. He is what he is at this point..

And yes, you can put a price on it. This organization already has.

hags9k

NYC,

I think this is unfair.

“When he gets comfortable in a situation he doesn’t quite play as well as when it is last chance Texaco.”

If he would have potted two of his five breakaway chances he would be right on track, and nobody would be critical. Game of inches. While scoring zero goals, Zach Kassian still killls penalties and provides this team with a very valuable element. Krazee. You can’t put a price on it.

OmJo:
PunjabiOil,

The thing about Kassian is he’s not put in a position to produce offensively 5v5, playing with Letestu and whoever else on the 4th line for 10 minutes a game. He gets no PP time and very few looks in the top 6. Where is the offense supposed to come from?

I think he’s a better offensive player than he’s shown. He’s fast, has decent hands, and plays physical. To be honest I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Maroon at the trade deadline and having Kassian replace him on McDavids wing and the 2PP for the rest of the season, if we really are out of the hunt by then.

Kassian is not a better offensive player than he has shown over his career. He is a bottom six winger with some skill, skating ability and a gritty streak. He also has a reputation that leads him to take more penalties than he draws. He was a nice reclamation project and good comeback story, but signing him to a longer term deal was a strange situation. When he gets comfortable in a situation he doesn’t quite play as well as when it is last chance Texaco.

It’s a strange spot to be paying your 4th line winger $2m per for multiple years, but you look at Russell and Lucic and you see a pattern there: over-paying for complementary players. We have talked ad nauseum about how that can kill you because you have to move out your skill guys to make room for those dollars.

PunjabiOil

The funny thing about Kassian is that, despite all the struggles and turmoil at the right wing position, he has never been given a shot with a skill center for any period of time.

He absolutely has got time with Hall and RNH.

When that it happened, the numbers showed he dragged down their numbers.

He’s not a long-term solution in the top 6. Never has been.

OmJo

who: The funny thing about Kassian is that, despite all the struggles and turmoil at the right wing position, he has never been given a shot with a skill center for any period of time.
They have literally auditioned every other warm body on the roster, yet Kassian remains stapled to Letestu and the fourth line.
Did Chia and Tmac not discuss this before they gave him the new contract?

Best me to it!

OmJo

PunjabiOil,

The thing about Kassian is he’s not put in a position to produce offensively 5v5, playing with Letestu and whoever else on the 4th line for 10 minutes a game. He gets no PP time and very few looks in the top 6. Where is the offense supposed to come from?

I think he’s a better offensive player than he’s shown. He’s fast, has decent hands, and plays physical. To be honest I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Maroon at the trade deadline and having Kassian replace him on McDavids wing and the 2PP for the rest of the season, if we really are out of the hunt by then.

who

Scungilli Slushy: Bang on. Kass and Letestu at this point are replacement level given their offense. The only thing Kassian has above average for his production is speed. He’s an 800 000 player otherwise because he doesn’t score and is inconsistent.

The funny thing about Kassian is that, despite all the struggles and turmoil at the right wing position, he has never been given a shot with a skill center for any period of time.
They have literally auditioned every other warm body on the roster, yet Kassian remains stapled to Letestu and the fourth line.
Did Chia and Tmac not discuss this before they gave him the new contract?

Scungilli Slushy

frjohnk: If playoffs are lost, Id play Nuge, McDavid and Draisaitl together.
None of the RFA’s get zoomed and it becomes survival of the fittest.

Me too. Sink or swim.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: With respect, I disagree with this completely. He may very well top out around 50 points, I don’t know.

What I do know is that he is a 6 weeks in to his draft plus 2 years, and he will still be a teenager when the regular season ends.

I have personally been given hope for his offence over the last 10 days – I have seen him skate and skate with the puck with confidence while making plays.I have seen him willing to use his shot.I have seen the shot that scouting reports mentioned that I didn’t see last year (it was a one-timer from the slot in his first game) and, maybe most importantly, I have seen his Hockey IQ – he is smart on the ice.

I know that the NHL’s history is littered with bigger forwards that had prominent careers that took a while to develop – “power forwards” often take longer than smaller “skilled forwards”.

He very well could top out at 50 points but I’m not willing to be that ceiling on the teenager 6 weeks in to his draft plus 2 season in particular given I’ve seen him play much better in his first few games then at any point in his first season.

Blake Wheeler scored 45 points in his first NHL season. Of course he was 23 I think. But he sucks now so that’s a bad example.

Scungilli Slushy

PunjabiOil:
2. Why? Kass is at $1.95 mil. Good value for player like him .

Kassian has 10 goals, 35 points (0.25 PPG) over 135 games as an Oiler.

He’s a 4th liner.You can argue there’s an element he brings to the team (of which merits can be debated) but these are the type of contracts the Oilers need to get rid of.Players that are not necessarily overpays, but don’t move the dial significantly, if at all.

The Oilers need value players in the bottom 6 and bottom pairing d-men.Instead, the Oilers are overpaying in these spots which prevents them from improving at the top of the lineup.

Letestu is another contract they can get rid of and not be worse off given his putrid play 5 on 5.

And I like Strome more than most (although hated the trade due to value), but he’s probably not a 3M player going forward either.

Bang on. Kass and Letestu at this point are replacement level given their offense. The only thing Kassian has above average for his production is speed. He’s an 800 000 player otherwise because he doesn’t score and is inconsistent.

who

PunjabiOil:
OriginalPouzar,

Has he?He’s taking a significant number of penalties.

He PKs yes – but his shot suppression rates have never been good.

I’m not a fan of giving bottom 6 players both term and money unless there is an reasonable possibility they become a value contract.Kassian was paid full fair market value.

And to list examples of players that could have been acquired (while also providing possibility of being moved at the deadline if necessary) who mostly make less in dollars and come without a long-term committement:

Vanek – 2M
Jokinen – 1.1M
Stafford – 800,000
Pouliot – 1.15M
Yakupov – 875,000
Hemsky – 1M
Smith Pelley – 675,000
Jagr – 1.75M
Kunitz – 2M
Vrbata – 2.5M
Burmistrov – 900,000
Nate Thompson – 1.65M
Scott Hartnell – 1M
Josh Jooris – 750,000
Pitlick – 1M
Sharp – 1M

These are the value contracts the Oilers need, and every year you see these in free agency.

Instead, the management perpetually overpays depth players thereby sacrificing improvement higher up in the lineup.

Think I would prefer Kassian to most of the names on your list here so I’m not sure what your point is

Scungilli Slushy

Cassandra: The time has come for all Oiler fans of good faith to pray for the firing of Chiarelli.

Oiler fans of good faith aren’t likely praying for a sports team’s success.

Scungilli Slushy

PunjabiOil:
1. Don’t know if the Oilers can afford Maroon, even at 3 million. Not if they want to keep Nuge and sign Nurse and Benning and I would suggest those three are bigger priorities.

I think Maroon is absolutely worth 3M (in fact, would probably be a value contract at that for a few years at least).

The problem is they have spent too much money elsewhere (Lucic, Russell, Kassian, Strome) on players that are not moving the dial, that they’ll be hard pressed to find room for Maroon.

That doesn’t mean he’s not a useful player.

I guarantee when he leaves as a UFA (or gets traded), the fan-boys and local MSM will be undermining the player and his accomplishments.

I like Maroon, but if anybody else pointed as little with his TOI with McD and was also as marginal defensively most here would be disappointed and want a different LW. .5 PPG with the best offensive player in the world isn’t that great. It’s below good first line production on any team.

PunjabiOil

With respect, I disagree with this completely. He may very well top out around 50 points, I don’t know.
What I do know is that he is a 6 weeks in to his draft plus 2 years, and he will still be a teenager when the regular season ends.
I have personally been given hope for his offence over the last 10 days – I have seen him skate and skate with the puck with confidence while making plays. I have seen him willing to use his shot. I have seen the shot that scouting reports mentioned that I didn’t see last year (it was a one-timer from the slot in his first game) and, maybe most importantly, I have seen his Hockey IQ – he is smart on the ice.
I know that the NHL’s history is littered with bigger forwards that had prominent careers that took a while to develop – “power forwards” often take longer than smaller “skilled forwards”.
He very well could top out at 50 points but I’m not willing to be that ceiling on the teenager 6 weeks in to his draft plus 2 season in particular given I’ve seen him play much better in his first few games then at any point in his first season
.

With evidence I mean:

1. Point totals in Finland which significantly lagged his peers (Barkov, Rantanen)
2. AHL numbers aside from playing time with Anton Landers and some success on the powerplay
3. IIHF Worlds – pointless and a healthy scratch
4. AHL numbers this season
5. NHL numbers in current and past season

I get it – he can skate, he’s big – but only potential, draft pedigree, and labels suggest he’s going to be an offensive threat – nothing in the way of tangible results to date.

I’d like to be wrong, but I’m going to trust the numbers to date thus far. For that reason, I’m not averse to moving him for the right deal.

Cassandra

It is pretty freakin’ funny that Hall and Eberle were traded because they were bad in the room, and now, apparently, the room is worse than ever.

I don’t care at all about rumours. This is what you get when your general manager thinks there is a difference between assembling the best players and assembling the best team.

I said it at the time, and I was right. You can’t lose the battle and win the war.

The time has come for all Oiler fans of good faith to pray for the firing of Chiarelli. No one who makes trades so inconceivably stupid is capable of learning from their mistakes. In order to learn from your mistakes, you have to recognize them as mistakes, but recognizing them as mistakes requires intelligence and reflection, and no one with those qualities would have ever made those trades in the first place.

who

PunjabiOil:
1. Don’t know if the Oilers can afford Maroon, even at 3 million. Not if they want to keep Nuge and sign Nurse and Benning and I would suggest those three are bigger priorities.

I think Maroon is absolutely worth 3M (in fact, would probably be a value contract at that for a few years at least).

The problem is they have spent too much money elsewhere (Lucic, Russell, Kassian, Strome) on players that are not moving the dial, that they’ll be hard pressed to find room for Maroon.

That doesn’t mean he’s not a useful player.

I guarantee when he leaves as a UFA (or gets traded), the fan-boys and local MSM will be undermining the player and his accomplishments.

Don’t disagree with you but we can’t make the bad contracts dissappear. If we didn’t have Lucic at 6 million I would have no problem giving Maroon 3 million.
But that is not the case

workaroundaccount

If we rely on Benson and Yamamoto next year, this thing is gonna get worse before it gets better.

PunjabiOil

OriginalPouzar,

Has he? He’s taking a significant number of penalties.

He PKs yes – but his shot suppression rates have never been good.

I’m not a fan of giving bottom 6 players both term and money unless there is an reasonable possibility they become a value contract. Kassian was paid full fair market value.

And to list examples of players that could have been acquired (while also providing possibility of being moved at the deadline if necessary) who mostly make less in dollars and come without a long-term committement:

Vanek – 2M
Jokinen – 1.1M
Stafford – 800,000
Pouliot – 1.15M
Yakupov – 875,000
Hemsky – 1M
Smith Pelley – 675,000
Jagr – 1.75M
Kunitz – 2M
Vrbata – 2.5M
Burmistrov – 900,000
Nate Thompson – 1.65M
Scott Hartnell – 1M
Josh Jooris – 750,000
Pitlick – 1M
Sharp – 1M

These are the value contracts the Oilers need, and every year you see these in free agency.

Instead, the management perpetually overpays depth players thereby sacrificing improvement higher up in the lineup.

jtblack
PunjabiOil

1. Don’t know if the Oilers can afford Maroon, even at 3 million. Not if they want to keep Nuge and sign Nurse and Benning and I would suggest those three are bigger priorities.

I think Maroon is absolutely worth 3M (in fact, would probably be a value contract at that for a few years at least).

The problem is they have spent too much money elsewhere (Lucic, Russell, Kassian, Strome) on players that are not moving the dial, that they’ll be hard pressed to find room for Maroon.

That doesn’t mean he’s not a useful player.

I guarantee when he leaves as a UFA (or gets traded), the fan-boys and local MSM will be undermining the player and his accomplishments.

OriginalPouzar

Given all of our issues in the bottom 6, and on the PK, its really hard for me to get on board with the premise that the most offensively talented fourth liner, who is 100% an every day NHLer, has nice speed, good size and aggression, is responsible and is decent to good on the PK is a problem due his $2M/season contract.

Yes, the sum of many immaterial overpays become material but this player at least provides a positive presence on the ice most nights.

PunjabiOil

2. Why? Kass is at $1.95 mil. Good value for player like him .

Kassian has 10 goals, 35 points (0.25 PPG) over 135 games as an Oiler.

He’s a 4th liner. You can argue there’s an element he brings to the team (of which merits can be debated) but these are the type of contracts the Oilers need to get rid of. Players that are not necessarily overpays, but don’t move the dial significantly, if at all.

The Oilers need value players in the bottom 6 and bottom pairing d-men. Instead, the Oilers are overpaying in these spots which prevents them from improving at the top of the lineup.

Letestu is another contract they can get rid of and not be worse off given his putrid play 5 on 5.

And I like Strome more than most (although hated the trade due to value), but he’s probably not a 3M player going forward either.

OriginalPouzar

1) I agree with WHO – even if Maroon is willing to sign for $3M, I’m not so sure it makes sense for the club. It would be a risk (similar to the many that haven’t panned out this year) but we may need to rely on a value contract (Yamamoto, Benson) to fill a top 6 winger spot and spend that money elsewhere. Both those guys could need AHL time though.

2) I’m not concerned about Kassian’s contract – his work on the PK and a solid 4th line shift (with the ability to move up) covers most (if not all) of this contract.

3) If we are out of contention come the deadline, I’m quite looking forward to the picks we will get in return for Maroon, Letestu and Cammalleri. Even if we turn it around and are in a playoff spot (and therefor keep these players), I don’t imagine Letestu will be back – in particular if Khaira can develop in to an every day player this year.

4) A highly unlikely scneario.

workaroundaccount

VOR: It is the

Didn’t realize we live in a CW show.

who

PunjabiOil:
Still early but:

1. Yamomoto struggling a bit.1 point in last 3 games.
2.Puljujarvi – I think we have enough evidence that he’s not going to be an offensive guy.Probably closer to being a 35-50 point guy at best case scenario.

Critical week.Probably need to go 2-1 at worst case to stay in the hunt for playoffs.

Plan for the rest of the season:

1.Maroon less than 4M (short term deal) or trade him at deadline.Longer term deal if cap hit at 3M.
2.Try to get rid of Kassian’s contract
3.Try to find someone to take Letestu’s contract
4.Ask Russell to waive his NTC multiple times throughout the year and off-season. A player usually gets the hint if they’re not wanted.
5.Replace Chiarelli if you’re not comfortable (i’m not) with entrusting him for the remaining assets left within the organization.

1. Don’t know if the Oilers can afford Maroon, even at 3 million. Not if they want to keep Nuge and sign Nurse and Benning and I would suggest those three are bigger priorities.
2. Depending on return I would be okay with this. Kassian is making too much for a 4th liner. Not sure if the coach is fully utilizing this player.
3. Not so much a salary dump as getting a return for an expiring asset. Have plenty of room for his cap hit this year.
4. Probably not going to happen.
5. See above.

admiralmark

deardylan:

Here is a possible clue from wikipedia: The phenomenon of a “sophomore slump” can be explained psychologically, where earlier success has a reducing effect on the subsequent effort, but it can also be explained statistically, as an effect of the regression towards the mean.

I’ll take regression towards the mean for 1000 pts alex.
They had a ton of luck last season. Sekera propped up Russell all year and Talbot was a godsend. Minus Eberle’s regular season production coupled with Sekera INJ and here we are. I will say if the team was completely healthy they could likely squeak into the 8th playoff spot. But that’s asking for a ton of luck again.

OmJo

deardylan:
Call To All Sherlocks!

The Case of The Oilers Team Sophomore Slump?

Is there any data about teams who are at bottom of standings for many years and then have a great year (and the next year their effort fails to live up to the new standards).

Do they suffer a second year syndrome/sophomore slump/sophomore blues?

Here is a possible clue from wikipedia: The phenomenon of a “sophomore slump” can be explained psychologically, where earlier success has a reducing effect on the subsequent effort, but it can also be explained statistically, as an effect of the regression towards the mean.

Is the sophomore slump still a thing? I almost never see anybody mention it anymore.

It’s like the fact dmen generally take longer to develop than forwards. Nobody really takes than into consideration anymore when calling a 20-21 year old dman struggle in the NHL early on.

flyfish1168

jtblack:
Wildly positive predictions …

1.Connor will still win the Art Ross …. with 113 points. Once the PP gets rolling, he will cruise around 1.5 ppg
2. Oilers win 6 in a row +; between Jan.1 – Feb.28th. Putting them back in the playoff conversation

They need to stay close between now and then for number 2 to mean anything.

Tesla's Hair

jtblack,

Wildly positive predictions …
1. Connor will still win the Art Ross …. with 113 points. Once the PP gets rolling, he will cruise around 1.5 ppg
2. Oilers win 6 in a row +; between Jan.1 – Feb.28th. Putting them back in the playoff conversation

Yes, gotta keep the faith!!

OmJo

Kinger_Oil.redux,

No it’s all good, that’s what I asked for, what you think.

Just need some time to go through each one and think about them. Didn’t expect so many things tbh 😛
Every time I try a customer interrupts me lol. I’m not going to just go through them to try and refute anything or argue, was just curious.

Tesla's Hair

Call To All Sherlocks!

The Case of The Oilers Team Sophomore Slump?

Is there any data about teams who are at bottom of standings for many years and then have a great year (and the next year their effort fails to live up to the new standards).

Do they suffer a second year syndrome/sophomore slump/sophomore blues?

Here is a possible clue from wikipedia: The phenomenon of a “sophomore slump” can be explained psychologically, where earlier success has a reducing effect on the subsequent effort, but it can also be explained statistically, as an effect of the regression towards the mean.

jtblack

Wildly positive predictions …

1. Connor will still win the Art Ross …. with 113 points. Once the PP gets rolling, he will cruise around 1.5 ppg
2. Oilers win 6 in a row +; between Jan.1 – Feb.28th. Putting them back in the playoff conversation

jtblack

PunjabiOil,

“Plan for the rest of the season:
1. Maroon less than 4M (short term deal) or trade him at deadline. Longer term deal if cap hit at 3M.
2. Try to get rid of Kassian’s contract
3. Try to find someone to take Letestu’s contract
4. Ask Russell to waive his NTC multiple times throughout the year and off-season. A player usually gets the hint if they’re not wanted.
5. Replace Chiarelli if you’re not comfortable (i’m not) with entrusting him for the remaining assets left within the organization.”

1. Like the thinking. It’s Maroon’s one chance at a home run, I think he takes as much money as possible no matter where he lands. Remember he spent many years in the minors. This contract is his chance to set his family up for a long time. I don’t see Edm signing him.
2. Why? Kass is at $1.95 mil. Good value for player like him
3. Letestu’s contract is done at year end. Don’t see him back with Oil next year
4. Not happening. Mistake by PC to give Russell 4 years. We all agreed on this when it occurred. I remember nobody saying “Great signing”
5. He gets 1 more year from now … IE: If they miss the playoffs this year AND start next year in a similiar fashion, then PC might be gone .. but he’s safe this year. A 103 pt season will do that for a GM

OriginalPouzar

2.Puljujarvi – I think we have enough evidence that he’s not going to be an offensive guy.Probably closer to being a 35-50 point guy at best case scenario.

With respect, I disagree with this completely. He may very well top out around 50 points, I don’t know.

What I do know is that he is a 6 weeks in to his draft plus 2 years, and he will still be a teenager when the regular season ends.

I have personally been given hope for his offence over the last 10 days – I have seen him skate and skate with the puck with confidence while making plays. I have seen him willing to use his shot. I have seen the shot that scouting reports mentioned that I didn’t see last year (it was a one-timer from the slot in his first game) and, maybe most importantly, I have seen his Hockey IQ – he is smart on the ice.

I know that the NHL’s history is littered with bigger forwards that had prominent careers that took a while to develop – “power forwards” often take longer than smaller “skilled forwards”.

He very well could top out at 50 points but I’m not willing to be that ceiling on the teenager 6 weeks in to his draft plus 2 season in particular given I’ve seen him play much better in his first few games then at any point in his first season.

PunjabiOil

Still early but:

1. Yamomoto struggling a bit. 1 point in last 3 games.
2. Puljujarvi – I think we have enough evidence that he’s not going to be an offensive guy. Probably closer to being a 35-50 point guy at best case scenario.

Critical week. Probably need to go 2-1 at worst case to stay in the hunt for playoffs.

Plan for the rest of the season:

1. Maroon less than 4M (short term deal) or trade him at deadline. Longer term deal if cap hit at 3M.
2. Try to get rid of Kassian’s contract
3. Try to find someone to take Letestu’s contract
4. Ask Russell to waive his NTC multiple times throughout the year and off-season. A player usually gets the hint if they’re not wanted.
5. Replace Chiarelli if you’re not comfortable (i’m not) with entrusting him for the remaining assets left within the organization.

Kinger_Oil.redux

OmJo:
Kinger_Oil.redux,

Sorry, I’ll try to get to this after work tonight.

– Look I don’t really know, those were just some thoughts.

-.903 goalies get coaches fired…

OmJo

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Sorry, I’ll try to get to this after work tonight.

flyfish1168

Ryan: Chiarelli is not known as a guy with a great track record for getting value in trades involving key pieces under the best of circumstances.

If he’s forced to make a trade under duress, look out.

As per his previous team he created a CAP issues to the team

Ryan

sliderule: If that is where it’s at there is a trade coming.

Chiarelli is not known as a guy with a great track record for getting value in trades involving key pieces under the best of circumstances.

If he’s forced to make a trade under duress, look out.

OmJo

VOR: There is now an entire narrative built around this “rumoured incident “.What happened before, what happened during, what was said and what happened next have been woven into a toxic tale. One that ends with the Oilers split into two warring camps.

I’m not asking what happened, but what the hell did I miss?!?