Let it Bleed

by Lowetide

Peter Chiarelli has to find Connor McDavid a first-shot scorer for his line. At the end of last night’s action, 97’s stats indicated he had registered no points despite an 11-3 HDSC advantage at 5×5, numerous stunning passes to linemates for 10-bell chances and some fine power-play work. Milan Lucic, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Strome and Drake Caggiula were gifted quality passes and opportunities but there was no success for 97 and his line. The penalty kill is a full on disaster, but finding McDavid’s shooter needs to be a focus for the general manager.

THE ATHLETIC!

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LONG DECEMBER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • December 2015: 7-4-1, goal differential -4 (15 points)
  • December 2016: 6-2-4, goal differential +1 (16 points)
  • December 2017: 7-4-1, goal differential +9 (15 points)

Despite last night’s disappointment, December 2017 has in fact delivered good results for Edmonton. It might not be enough to get the team into the postseason but this month has seen a handsome recovery.

AFTER 38, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 15-19-4, goal differential -23 (33 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 19-12-7, goal differential +10 (45 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 17-18-3, goal differential -6 (37 points)

Edmonton still has a chance to win 20 in the first 41 games on the schedule but there is no room for error. The 2017-18 team is two wins better than McLellan’s first Edmonton team but are eight points off last year’s pace.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER

  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected: 0-0-1) (Actual: 1-0-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Montreal, Toronto, Columbus (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Nashville (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Minnesota (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose, St. Louis, Montreal (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 3-0-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Chicago, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-2, 12 points in 13 games 
  • Current results: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games

This has been a successful month based on my projections and Oilers fans should be pleased with the progress in December. Winning that last game will help a great deal in aiding a playoff run.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Larsson were 26-17 together in 18:43, that’s a big slice of the overall 5×5 game state. Duo was 7-3 in HDSC’s and 0-0 in GF. Went 19-5 with McDavid (hot hot hot!) and 11-10 against Saad-Toews-Panik. That isn’t the top line on Chicago, but it’s a good one. This pairing crushed Hartman-Schmaltz-Kane (the de facto top line for the ‘Hawks) 15-4 in 5:13.
  • Sekera-Benning went 18-16 in 14;10 together, 0-1 GF and 4-6 in HDSC’s. Paired with the Nuge line most often (14-5), the duo faced Vinnie Hinostroza-David Kampf-Alex DeBrincat line (9-7 in 6:12) and Hartman-Schmaltz-Kane (5-4 in 3:55) mostly. Benning did not play well and would be my choice to sit the next time there’s a shuffle.
  • Nurse-Russell were 14-28 in 16:25 together, 0-0 GF and 4-4 HDSC’s. Were 7-13 in 7:43 against Hartman-Schmaltz-Kane, this pairing saw the top Chicago line 2.5 minutes more at 5×5 than Klefbom-Larsson. Were also 5-9 in 5:07 versus Vinnie Hinostroza-David Kampf-Alex DeBrincat on a tough night for the pair. Russell had a monstrous giveaway that led to a Nurse (earned imo) penalty and a GA. Russell is a veteran, needs to make a better play.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 32 of 36, .889. He was quality at 5×5 (27 of 28, .964).
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi went 33-15 (Lucic) and 22-9 (Puljujarvi) plus 6-6 (Caggiula) with 97. Man that McDavid had a helluva game, 11-3 in HDSC’s despite being 0-1 in GF. Crazy crazy. Were 19-9 (and 0-1 GF) against the Kane line at 5×5. McDavid needs a shooter.
  • Maroon-Nuge-Puljujarvi/Caggiula went 17-18 in 14:55 (Maroon-Nuge), with Puljujarvi (9-7) outperforming Caggiula (6-9) on both the first and second lines. Went 6-6 in high danger, RNH posting three points and two of those at even strength but none on the 5×5. Nuge and JP had five individual HD scoring chances each, Maroon had none.
  • Cammalleri-Letestu-Kassian were 8-11 together, 0-0 GF and 0-2 in HDSC’s. I can’t imagine this trio playing against Winnipeg’s fourth line tomorrow night, it will be interesting to see what Todd McLellan does against Joel Armia. I’m fairly certain that sentence has never been written before, but it is a major storyline.
  • Khaira-Draisaitl-Strome had a weird night. Went 7-12 in 9:31, 0-0 GF and 1-2 in HDSC’s. That’s very poor compared to this line’s own recent past. Leon was against the Toews line all night (7-13 and 2-2 HD), got benched, scored the tying goal and then got walked by Kane. Tough evening, he’ll need to be better, but we should remember he has been driving this line successfully for some weeks now.

The Oilers penalty kill has them drowning and the home kill deserves to be shot. Todd McLellan has no answers, time for Peter Chiarelli to add some help.

The Oilers home 4×5 is so bad they’re going to write songs about it, absolutely sewering the season. Edmonton’s PK has allowed 33 goals (No. 31 in the league) while the power play has scored 18 (No. 27 in the NHL), meaning a net loss on special teams of 15 goals.

At even strength, Edmonton has scored 89 goals (No. 10 in the NHL) and allowed 84 (No. 19 in the entire league). The team even up is fine but that Denver boot that is special teams leaves this team bleeding pretty much every night. Cam Talbot’s EV save percentage is .920, tied for No. 19 among starters (goalies who have played 20 or more games). His PP save percentage is .817, No. 29 among the 31 goalies who qualify.

Obscured in all of this special teams failure? Edmonton’s shots-per-game (34.63) ranks the team No. 4 and shots against (30.55) is No. 6 among all teams. There’s a lot right about these Edmonton Oilers, but management and coaching staff cannot find a fix for the penalty kill and the season is bleeding.

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[…] etc., there is ample evidence that the process itself has collapsed on home ice. In this detailed comment to the Lowetide blog, local analytics guru Darcy “Woodguy” McLeod explored the […]

frjohnk,

How the hell is Buffalo first?!

frjohnk

Woodguy v2.0:
This is a fun list:

Actual 4v5 GA/60 at home:

TeamGA/60
BUF2.29
COL2.30
MIN2.81
CBJ3.42
S.J4.14
L.A4.49
DET4.55
MTL4.57
DAL4.70
BOS5.03
NYR5.06
ANA5.30
STL5.36
VGK5.49
CHI5.50
WPG5.54
N.J5.64
PIT6.00
WSH6.27
T.B6.87
VAN7.34
FLA7.76
CAR8.03
NYI8.05
OTT8.61
NSH8.73
TOR9.08
CGY9.38
ARI11.05
PHI11.34
EDM17.56

Not quite 3 stdev below the mean, but close.

thats absofukinglutely terrible.

Woodguy v2.0

This is a fun list:

Actual 4v5 GA/60 at home:

Team GA/60
BUF 2.29
COL 2.30
MIN 2.81
CBJ 3.42
S.J 4.14
L.A 4.49
DET 4.55
MTL 4.57
DAL 4.70
BOS 5.03
NYR 5.06
ANA 5.30
STL 5.36
VGK 5.49
CHI 5.50
WPG 5.54
N.J 5.64
PIT 6.00
WSH 6.27
T.B 6.87
VAN 7.34
FLA 7.76
CAR 8.03
NYI 8.05
OTT 8.61
NSH 8.73
TOR 9.08
CGY 9.38
ARI 11.05
PHI 11.34
EDM 17.56

Average 6.52
Stdev 3.1

Not quite 4 stdev below average, but close.

Woodguy v2.0

who,

Re: variance on the PK

I understand where you’re coming from and normally splitting data like this is pretty bad idea.

That said its not normal variance.

Normal variance would look like:

Home: Expected GA/60 7.5
Home: Actual GA/60 9.8

Road Expected GA/60 7.2
Road Actual GA/60 5.9

Normally we see in the expected GA splits that the process is the same, its just that there is variance in the results.

Pretty run of the mill stuff that sorts its self out over time.

In this case though, the underlying number are starkly different:

EDM 4v5 Expected Goals Against.60 vs Actual Goals Against/60

Expected Overall: 7.88/60
Actual Overall: 10.39/60

Expected Home: 9.95/60
Actual Home: 17.59/60

Expected Road: 6.46/60
Actual Road: 5.48/60

That’s insane.

The process (using shot location and type) is ridiculously different (over 3GA/60) home vs away.

The variance part of the insane rate the puck goes in at home compared to expected, but the fact that the expected has such a large gap is the intriguing part and is tougher to explain away due to variance.

I ran the home/road xGA/60 splits for all teams and the average is -0.22 at home with a standard deviation of 1.66

So EDM is over 2 Stdev away from the mean with a +3.49 xGA/60 at home compared to on the road.

Only 1 other team was above a +2 GA/60 difference, ANA with 2.27

On the negative side of the curve, 5 teams were below -2: (worse on the road)

NYI -2.01
VAN -2.49
BUF -2.66
CBJ -3.19
COL -3.48

russ99

matt:
Like Bergevin in Montreal, PC failed to fill veteran roles, preferring to hope.

He bet that two of KY, JP, DC, ZK, AS, and RS could cover (top-half) NHL calibre 1RW/2RW positions.

He also bet two of DC, ZK, AS, and JJK could cover the PK holes left by MH and BP.

That’s four key roles sourced from a pool of seven, comprising two rookies, two near-rookies, and two fourth line players.

He has, again, put himself into a box when it comes to trades.Other GMs will ask well in excess of market value because his need is great.

There’s no reason to do this.He needs pro scouts he trusts, or needs to trust in numbers.

I agree on the bets, but staring down at a cap crunch next year, only starting to fix the system-wide void at forward and good FAs wanting multi year deals, those bets were within the realm of reasonable, despite the overhyped fans wanting the Oilers to burn the cap and go for the cup.

I don’t agree on trades. This is a different NHL than 10 years ago, no GM wants to look bad in the press and social media so few big deals are made with risks on impact players like they used to do.

This and the fact that every GM in the league knew what the Oilers desperately needed and what was going the other way limited our options.

Other than Sather’s parting gift of Talbot, nobody is going to do us any favors and fan perceived trade values on blogs and social media are way off the mark in reality.

People were whinging about the Hamonic deal, why the Oilers didn’t do that and though I really like the player, that one is going to hurt Calgary 3-4 years down the road way worse than anything Chiarelli has done.

It’s pretty obvious Katz has hamstrung us yet again with the old boy hires in hockey ops. scouting and player development. I’m glad we got Nicholson, Chiarelli and McLellan, but as long as MacTavish, Howson, Scott, Carriere, Sutter and Green (even though he’s drafted well the last few years) are in hockey operations we’re playing with one hand tied behind our backs.

OriginalPouzar

Professor Q: I’m guessing we’re talking about Caggiula now, and not Draisaitl? Or Nurse?

35 points annually from Nurse would actually be offensively great. Not everyone can be an 80-point Karlsson…

I’m talking about Nurse still.

I agree, 35 points would be great – which is to my point which is a response to the position that he will be a 45-50 point guy.

Munny:
NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

Aren’t Maroon, Lucic and Kassian enough? And it’s not like Nuge and Drai and Nurse and others don’t go to the crease, no?

To tell you the truth there’s nothing I see in Hornqvist’s numbers that make me want to give up assets for him.

Kassian and Hornqvist are not comparable in any way shape or form. Maroon isn’t playing that type of game this year. Lucic isn’t the same type of player either, actually, although he is closest perhaps. He is a better passer than most people give him credit for but he isn’t the tip and garbage goal type.

Hornqvist is. I prefer him to Hoffman if the ask is a better fit. i.e. Letestu plus something else. Pens need a shakeup and they need a centre. Ottawa wants futures and we can’t afford to give more up.

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar:
Sure, he can improve (and he will likely improve), however, that can be said about any player that is still in development. I do think his offensive instincts will improve but not to a level that will have him as a 40 plus point producer. I hope he does develop in to that person (and he may) but, from watching him play (and watching hockey for 35 years), I would say its more likely that he is a consistent 30-35 point guy.

Time will tell.

I’m guessing we’re talking about Caggiula now, and not Draisaitl? Or Nurse?

35 points annually from Nurse would actually be offensively great. Not everyone can be an 80-point Karlsson…

OriginalPouzar

Sure, he can improve (and he will likely improve), however, that can be said about any player that is still in development. I do think his offensive instincts will improve but not to a level that will have him as a 40 plus point producer. I hope he does develop in to that person (and he may) but, from watching him play (and watching hockey for 35 years), I would say its more likely that he is a consistent 30-35 point guy.

Time will tell.

Munny

OriginalPouzar: Don’t get me wrong, I love Nurse but he’s never been a high end offensive producer at any leaves and his offensive instincts, including puck distribution, are lacking.

I think you’re under-rating his upside. For eg. these things could be said about Khaira (and maybe he will revert, who knows?). Producing points 5 x 5 has greatly improved for Nurse similarly… while playing a tougher position.

The thing about Darnell is he needs to be able to consistently produce a shot with speed and accuracy from the point or he will never get any PP time. Without PP time his contract demands are limited.

Munny

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

Aren’t Maroon, Lucic and Kassian enough? And it’s not like Nuge and Drai and Nurse and others don’t go to the crease, no?

To tell you the truth there’s nothing I see in Hornqvist’s numbers that make me want to give up assets for him.

Munny

Bos8: arrogant experiment

Arrogant? Wut?

OriginalPouzar

I know he’s been struggling on the PP but I’d still play Drai on it.,,,,

I mentioned this idea the other night but further thinking how about getting a guy like Hornqvist? A crease crashing Smytty-lite with a bit of a temper.

Send Letestu and a forward prospect or pick for him since Pittsburgh knows Letestu, needs a C, and does not have much cap room.

Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Lucic-Nuge-Hornqvist
Caggiula-Drai-Strome
Slepyshev-Khaira-Kassian

PP1:
Nuge-McDavid-Hornqvist
Klefbom-Puljujarvi

PP2:
Lucic-Drai-Maroon/Slepyshev (whoever is more willing to crease crash)
Sekera-Davidson

Bos8

OmJo,

That arrogant experiment might have cost the Oilers the season. Unfair to both Kailer and McDavid. Shades of “Smartest in the room syndrome”. Thinking and playing at the speed of McDavid is challenging to say the least.

VOR

I am going to try this again since I feel like I must have miscommunicated.

Cags is well liked by is teammates and is a hard working high energy player. When he gets promoted above his normal assignment it is the coach saying “I value hard work, effort, and energy.” Nobody has yet offered any proof this is bad coaching, beyond their personal opinion. It may seem wrong to those of us, myself included who think JP is the much better player . Or again like me believe the correct move was to promote Leon to 1R. But it clearly wasn’t about talent for TMac. It was about effort.

I am not sure who the coach was calling out but it was pretty clear the message was “increase your I give a shit per 60.”

Like every high level coach I have ever met Todd clearly understands that optimizing your lineup is not as important as optimizing your team’s performance and that the two things aren’t synonymous.

JimmyV1965

who: Maybe I’m already a bit dizzy from the shaking but it almost read like he was suggesting Macdavid needed Maroon and Lucic on his wings to keep him safe.
I think Benson is a good prospect but he may take him 5 years to reach the goal total that Debrincat is going to post this year. And in my limited viewings he seems like a pass first kind of player. We already have plenty of those.

And Debrincat may get 20 goals this year, never to be heard of again. Both were good picks but high risk for different reasons. The book isn’t even close to being written for these two.

VOR

Pouzar: Small sample yes (66.42 min).
At 41.22 CF% (5 on 5) I’d say “plays quite well with Connor” is a stretch.

He actually is much better with Letestu (50.51 CF% in 54 min).
hmmm.

I was referring to the times Cagguila has been moved up in a game and subsequent game state outcomes. I was attempting to say that in an extremely limited sample the strategy of rolling Cags up the roster to play with McDavid has worked. The sum is greater than the total of the parts. Look at his goals per 60 playing with McDavid. And how the team as a whole performed in those Cags pinch hits.

OmJo

Bos8:
who,

Yep

DeBrincat would ride shotgun on McJesus.All 5’7 of him.There’s a reason that Maroon and the Looch play on that line.

Give your head a shake

5′ 8″ Kailer Yamamoto, the de facto future McDavid RW at the start of the season, says hi.

Edit: Autocorrect on SwiftKey is brutal.

Close but no Ciger

Is it really just luck when you can see what is wrong with their PK? Like getting sucked in too far to one side, or dropping back too far (Mcdavid yesterday). Seems like a lack of focus at home like some others have said, which maybe skews the xGA a bit. So Luck + Lack of focus = Violently bad PK.

Bos8

who,

You know this shoot first thingy is so simplistic that it does’t deserve discussion. Drai was very effective last year and he’s a passer.

Enough

Bos8

GMB3,

Ya think?

Pouzar

VOR: First, in a very small sample, Drake plays quite well with Connor.

Small sample yes (66.42 min).
At 41.22 CF% (5 on 5) I’d say “plays quite well with Connor” is a stretch.

He actually is much better with Letestu (50.51 CF% in 54 min).
hmmm.

OriginalPouzar

GMB3: Yep. They missed the boat there

Maybe but that remains to be seen.

Benson is still a teenager – miles to go.

OriginalPouzar

thehop:
OriginalPouzar,

What are you seeing that would lead you to believe his o numbers won’t improve?

Look at his three years with the Oilers and tell me there hasn’t been improvement in the offensive side of his game.

Rookie year: 69 games 10 points -13
Year 2: 44 games 11 points even
Year 3: 38 games 13 points +13

I see a 25 minute a night, 40-50 point 1st pairing D man.
I think you throw the Larsson or Klefbom contract at him to start and hope he takes it.

I just don’t see Nurse as a guy that’s going to break 40 points in anything other than a one-off career year.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Nurse but he’s never been a high end offensive producer at any leaves and his offensive instincts, including puck distribution, are lacking.

They will improve over time with experience but I just don’t see much more offence in his futur than what he is bringing this year – which has been quite good.

who

Bos8:
who,

McDavid is still developing his game.He needs two heavies for board work and someone to backcheck and keep up.It seems that Puljujarvi is coming along nicely but a year or two away.So where do you slot DeBrincat?

I thought the general consensus, which I agree with, was that he needs someone to consistently finish all the chances he creates.I don’t think JP is quite there yet
The team as a whole needs a few more shoot first type players. Macdavid and Drai are definitely pass first types. It would be nice to have a pure shooter for both of them.

GMB3

who: Maybe I’m already a bit dizzy from the shaking but it almost read like he was suggesting Macdavid needed Maroon and Lucic on his wings to keep him safe.
I think Benson is a good prospect but he may take him 5 years to reach the goal total that Debrincat is going to post this year. And in my limited viewings he seems like a pass first kind of player. We already have plenty of those.

I don’t mind Benson as a prospect at all, but Debrincat would really help us I think. Offensively talented shoot first right shot. He would fit in nicely with any of our three centers.

GMB3

Bos8:
who,

McDavid is still developing his game.He needs two heavies for board work and someone to backcheck and keep up.It seems that Puljujarvi is coming along nicely but a year or two away.So where do you slot DeBrincat?

Probably on right wing

who

GMB3: If the first shake didn’t work, shake harder. Squint your eyes and spin around a few times.

Maybe I’m already a bit dizzy from the shaking but it almost read like he was suggesting Macdavid needed Maroon and Lucic on his wings to keep him safe.
I think Benson is a good prospect but he may take him 5 years to reach the goal total that Debrincat is going to post this year. And in my limited viewings he seems like a pass first kind of player. We already have plenty of those.

Bos8

who,

McDavid is still developing his game. He needs two heavies for board work and someone to backcheck and keep up. It seems that Puljujarvi is coming along nicely but a year or two away. So where do you slot DeBrincat?

Bruce McCurdy

GMB3: I think the vast majority of you miss the point here. Drake Caggiula isn’t a first liner and has been given a much larger opportunity than DC. The length of rope afforded to both players isn’t even close.

Agree Caggiula is not a first liner, & for the most part he isn’t being treated as one. An hour with McDavid (with horrid results), four hours without.

My earlier comment was written specifically about the suggestion up the page that Slepyshev should replace Lucic on the first line, basically surrounding McDavid with 2 unproven wingers. I thought, & think, that’s a bad idea. I would also think it a bad idea if the suggestion was 91-97-98.

GMB3

who: Okay.
Finished shaking my head.Still don’t understand your comment.
Care to elaborate.

If the first shake didn’t work, shake harder. Squint your eyes and spin around a few times.

VOR

GMB3,

First, in a very small sample, Drake plays quite well with Connor.

Second, you are falling into the trap of believing the line a player plays on is a way of ranking players. A fourth liner is not necessarily a less talented player than his first line team mate. He has just been assigned the job by the coach. That is the same coach who occasionally plays him on the first line.

Third, you don’t just coach for the current game. TMac is one of the winningest coaches in NHL history. He knows that until you get fired or quit each decision you make counts now and in the future. He was telling his team to pick up the pace and play like the game mattered. They did pick up the pace and got a point. He also lit a fire under Leon.

I still don’t understand why this is bad coaching.

who

Bos8:
who,

Yep

DeBrincat would ride shotgun on McJesus.All 5’7 of him.There’s a reason that Maroon and the Looch play on that line.

Give your head a shake

Okay.
Finished shaking my head.
Still don’t understand your comment.
Care to elaborate.

Bos8

GMB3,

Size queen, that’s a new one. Passive aggressive much?

Been a Benson fan along time, that’s the future wing for McDavid, maybe Khaira if he develops

matt

Like Bergevin in Montreal, PC failed to fill veteran roles, preferring to hope.

He bet that two of KY, JP, DC, ZK, AS, and RS could cover (top-half) NHL calibre 1RW/2RW positions.

He also bet two of DC, ZK, AS, and JJK could cover the PK holes left by MH and BP.

That’s four key roles sourced from a pool of seven, comprising two rookies, two near-rookies, and two fourth line players.

He has, again, put himself into a box when it comes to trades. Other GMs will ask well in excess of market value because his need is great.

There’s no reason to do this. He needs pro scouts he trusts, or needs to trust in numbers.

Munny

VOR: I want to be clear. I think the variance between home and road penalty kills is random variance, luck if you like. But the math I love so much is telling me that the difference is so stunning it is driven by more than random variance.

If it is luck then we are confronted with the issue of how that luck plays out. If it is a performance issue how does that work? Are the penalty killers thinking, reacting, acting differently at home from their performance on the road?

I can’t imagine there is any coach in hockey who wouldn’t want an answer to the fundamental question: wtf is going on?

Agreed, but with a few caveats.

The first is that we could possibly be in that one in ten million casinos. (To pull a number out of my ass as an example).

Second is that it is Luck that is driving the historical badness. Whatever is wrong with the PK it is almost certain that it has happened to other teams before without having the same drastically horrid results.

The third is that Luck is a confounding factor, as I said last night. I think it may overpower the signal from our end. Perhaps not from the coach’s perspective, since he can engage in dialogue and freeze variables in practice time. But it could be difficult to identify the other causes with reasonable certainty from our armchairs.

And lastly, if the causes are creating such massive effects, they are likely to be emotional or mental state related. This is my personal opinion, but I hypothesize that at the NHL level, with the skill and knowledge available on and off the ice, large effects are likely to be unrelated to skill and knowledge, and more likely to be something like confidence or emotional fragility, etc.

GMB3

Bos8:
who,

Yep

DeBrincat would ride shotgun on McJesus.All 5’7 of him.There’s a reason that Maroon and the Looch play on that line.

Give your head a shake

Maroon or Lucic you mean. Not sure why he couldn’t play wing with Lucic on the other side. Plus he scored 13 without playing with McDavid, so I’m sure he could produce with Drai or RNH.

Or are you just a size queen? If so that’s okay.

Scungilli Slushy

Also, the Oilers for years have confounded Corsi and other stats with outlying behaviours. Having such a brutal home PK and record isn’t luck it’s mistakes being made more.

The outlying behaviour is brain farts per 60, BF/60. Corsi and Fenwick working is based on an NHL standard of play, if you outshoot in the long run you will win. The NHL standard is having a decent goalie, playing defence at an NHL level and shooting from NHL places on the ice.

The team is still making really weak defensive plays on a regular basis – terrible line changes, weak back checks, blown coverages, not making saves that should be made typically. So they outshoot teams handily and lose.

McLellan refers to tightening up, this Is what he means. It is only really messed up teams that play so fragilly, like th Oilers used to be or Buffalo or Coyotes now. The Oilers should should be well past it now, but it reared it’s ugly head again this season.

Bos8

who,

Yep

DeBrincat would ride shotgun on McJesus. All 5’7 of him. There’s a reason that Maroon and the Looch play on that line.

Give your head a shake

GMB3

who: Thats nice and everything but the guy we could have taken just scored his 13th for the Hawks. Debrincat would probably solve the cheap, scoring winger for Macdavid for the next few years.

Yep. They missed the boat there

who

Bos8:
After two periods, Benson with four assists, on team’s four goals.

Thats nice and everything but the guy we could have taken just scored his 13th for the Hawks. Debrincat would probably solve the cheap, scoring winger for Macdavid for the next few years.

Scungilli Slushy

VOR: I want to be clear. I think the variance between home and road penalty kills is random variance, luck if you like. But the math I love so much is telling me that the difference is so stunning it is driven by more than random variance.

If it is luck then we are confronted with the issue of how that luck plays out. If it is a performance issue how does that work? Are the penalty killers thinking, reacting, acting differently at home from their performance on the road?

I can’t imagine there is any coach in hockey who wouldn’t want an answer to the fundamental question: wtf is going on?

Hockey is a completely fluid game. To me attempts to compartmentalize it to apply stats or whatever can complicate things in a way that we’re back to square one because we still don’t fully understand the implications of what we come up with.

As far as PK goes, the Oilers in general aren’t playing well at home,they have a losing record. The issues are most likely not managing home life well enough or feeling too much pressure or both. Reg season games aren’t going to have many tactics changes because of they don’t have time to do much, they don’t have enough time to practice the main system.

Sure they have scouting reports and things like don’t let Weber shoot from the point, or Talbot has a weak glove, but that’s about it. Everyone was surprised when Tortorella talked bout not scouting the Oilers, but he was just pulling back the curtain more than normal. Playoffs are different.

Bos8

After two periods, Benson with four assists, on team’s four goals.

who

VOR: I want to be clear. I think the variance between home and road penalty kills is random variance, luck if you like. But the math I love so much is telling me that the difference is so stunning it is driven by more than random variance.

If it is luck then we are confronted with the issue of how that luck plays out. If it is a performance issue how does that work? Are the penalty killers thinking, reacting, acting differently at home from their performance on the road?

I can’t imagine there is any coach in hockey who wouldn’t want an answer to the fundamental question: wtf is going on?

I agree the splits in that small a sample are probably variance
My point is they should look at the penalty kill as a whole, both home and away, and fix it. The overall numbers are bad. There is no reason to fixate on the splits.

VOR

Munny: I think you are missing the point. PKs aren’t perfectly violent executions of a coach’s plans.Despite your earlier assertion of “most” w.r.t. coaching and PKing, both execution and personnel can often have large effects.

So, it’s not the difference in what they’ve game planned that VOR thinks should be examined, it’s the difference in what the players are actually thinking and doing.

Assuming that it isn’t luck driving the results, which it looks like it is… the Oesterle goal being the most recent exhibit. Because the effects we’re talking about are violently improbably massive.

I want to be clear. I think the variance between home and road penalty kills is random variance, luck if you like. But the math I love so much is telling me that the difference is so stunning it is driven by more than random variance.

If it is luck then we are confronted with the issue of how that luck plays out. If it is a performance issue how does that work? Are the penalty killers thinking, reacting, acting differently at home from their performance on the road?

I can’t imagine there is any coach in hockey who wouldn’t want an answer to the fundamental question: wtf is going on?

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar:
i’m not afraid of bridging Nurse – the risk with a bridge is a material spike in the player’s play during the term of the bridge and the ultimate long term contract being materially more expensive. This spike is usually reflect in box-cars, production.I don’t see Nurse’s offence spiking materially over the next few years and don’t see the ultimate long term contract being much more expensive as a 3rd contract than it would be as a 2nd contract.

Screw you Michael Matteson.

You could be right that he won’t increase offensive numbers , but outside factors could play in such as normal inflation, somebody getting a stupid contract. Or maybe as the team’s play develops he does start scoring 30-40 pats.

GMB3

VOR: Drake Caggiula does usually play lower down the lineup. The Oilers don’t deploy a conventional energy line. He gets boosted up the lineup from time to time, usually when things aren’t happening on the first line. Using high energy players from lower lines this way is a common coaching technique. Scotty Bowman did it from time to time.

If you’re in the business of winning hockey games, generally you’re not putting a 4th line talent on the first line when you’re down 1 in a game you need to win. Especially in the third. The only rationale explanation would be putting JP on the second line to help that line drive the play some more. Moving Draisaitl to that line makes sense. Moving Drake up, who accomplishes little in the offensive zone, does not.

GMB3

thehop:
OriginalPouzar,

What are you seeing that would lead you to believe his o numbers won’t improve?

Look at his three years with the Oilers and tell me there hasn’t been improvement in the offensive side of his game.

Rookie year: 69 games 10 points -13
Year 2: 44 games 11 points even
Year 3: 38 games 13 points +13

I see a 25 minute a night, 40-50 point 1st pairing D man.
I think you throw the Larsson or Klefbom contract at him to start and hope he takes it.

I highly doubt he hits 40-50 points, but I hope you are right!