Run to daylight!

The Oilers were in a shootout and needed a goal. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who may or may not shave yet, scored a lovely goal on his penalty shot to win the day for Edmonton. It’s a mighty long way down rock and roll and who knows what tomorrow brings. For today, this team has some hope and a sliver of daylight.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

FALSE SPRING, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • January 2016: 2-0-0, goal differential +1
  • January 2017: 1-1-0, goal differential -1
  • January 2018: 1-1-0, goal differential -5

Last night’s win was badly needed, this Edmonton team has just 10 games in January and have to make the most of it. All three teams got off to reasonable starts in January.

AFTER 41, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 17-21-3, goal differential -23 (37 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 21-13-7, goal differential +10 (49 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 18-20-3, goal differential -16 (39 points)

This year’s team is just a hair ahead of two years ago but I do believe this team will finish with more than 70 points. Adding a veteran backup goalie suggests there’s at least some interest in winning games this season.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, Chicago, Nashville, Arizona, Vegas (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Buffalo, Calgary (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-4-2, 10 points in 10 games
  • Current results: 1-1-0, two points in two games

Oilers are slightly ahead of my prediction but I was bullish about their road trip and there’s miles to go over the next two weeks.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Sekera-Benning went 16-8 in 11:58, 0-0 GF and 2-2 HDSC. Went 10-3 against Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg, forgot what a pain in the ass that line could be any given night. Pairing spent most of their 5×5 time with Leon and Nuge lines. I like both defenders but would prefer to see Sekera with a shutdown type and Benning the same. Edmonton doesn’t have enough puck movers on the roster to to afford this alignment.
  • Klefbom-Russell went 11-12 in 15:45, 1-0 GF and 5-0 in HDSC’s. Played mostly with Nuge and McDavid lines, going 6-5 against Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg. Russell scored on a beautiful pass from McDavid, screened Talbot on PP GA.
  • Nurse-Larsson were 15-20 together in 17:36, 0-0 GF and 0-5 in HDSC’s. This pairing spent most of their time with the McDavid line (8-0 Corsi) and flourished, but got caved (4-16) while playing with the Draisaitl line. Were 10-16 against Vermette-Getzlaf-Rakell, who I count as Anaheim’s top line. Getzlaf faced Nurse-Larsson 10:40; Klefbom-Russell 5:07, Sekera-Benning 1:46. Is that how you would handle things?
  • Cam Talbot stopped 33 of 34, .971. He played very well to my eye.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

OFFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi got the goal, a monster tally and the key to the win. McDavid had another of those insane nights where you’re just glad to be alive to witness it. Lucic had a good night, fine move and then pass on the goal, another nice item late in the third to give McDavid some air and eventually force a penalty. Puljujarvi is the bomb, he’s very close to impossible, needs his own camera following every move. Six HDSC’s for the line.
  • Cammalleri-Nuge-Strome went 15-13, 2-0 in HDSC’s. I thought they had some promising moments but the big contribution came in the shootout. Nuge was slippery and skilled, loving his season. Strome has big parts of the game right at his feet and is unable to think or act quickly enough to impact them. I’ll say this: He’s smart and skilled enough to get himself to good spots, which makes his lack of impact more galling.
  • Caggiula-Draisaitl-Slepyshev got caved 9-22, 2-7 in HDSC’s. Lordy. Went 3-12 in five minutes against Getzlaf. Hoo doggy. There were several epic shifts involving chasing, Edmonton needs wingers like Mars needs women. People will rip Leon today, but he needs better wingers. Schnell.
  • Khaira-Letestu-Kassian went 3-6, McLellan doesn’t trust his fourth line (6:21) much. I think both wingers on Letestu’s line would be better Leon options.

If he’s a buy  low option, then Peter Chiarelli should be on it yesterday. Duclair has one 20-goal season (crazy good shooting percentage that year) in the NHL already and is young enough to grow with the group. If the price is right, makes sense from here.

That was one weird trade for sure. What’s more, Al Montoya is on the IR (as I understand it) so Brossoit will probably head to Dallas as an insurance policy. Montoya has played in just four games this season, he is currently sporting an .897 even-strength save percentage (hockey-reference) for the year. As possible backup options go, Montoya is perhaps an uninspired choice but I’m unsure what forces were at play to make this happen. Brossoit will have to hit waivers, meaning another 24-hour “Jeff Deslauriers night sweats” saga.

KIRILL MAKSIMOV

We talked about Tyler Benson yesterday, and this morning another CHL winger is worth discussing. After a nice run coming out of the Christmas break, Maksimov’s boxcars are 34gp, 24-18-42 (NHLE: 82gp, 17-13-30). Oilers need scoring wingers, and with Kailer Yamamoto, Ostap Safin and Maksimov bubbling under, help is on the way.

 

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, the bases are loaded with great guests! Scheduled to appear:

  • Blake Price, TSN WJC host. We tee up the big WJ games today with Blake.
  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Chiarelli on the hot seat, WJ’s, Oilers win.
  • Nate Davis, USA Today. Huge NFL weekend.
  • Marshall Ferguson, Ti-Cats PBP. A monster news week in the CFL.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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343 Responses to "Run to daylight!"

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  1. leadfarmer says:

    I know its only a 5th rounder, but trading for a 32 year old backup goalie who is out with a concussion is just plain stupid. I have very little faith in Brossoit, he’s got a long way to go to be an NHL goalie, but I dont have much more faith in Montoya. Concussions are disastrous for goalies.

  2. JD_Wry says:

    Palm pilot… giggles

  3. Wilde says:

    Watching Cagguila in the defensive zone is like setting a guard dog loose, only to watch him furiously hump the intruders leg.

  4. Pouzar says:

    Pouzar: I ran the numbers for the last 4 years at 2500 min to get a bigger set of comparables from the backup goaltending realm.

    At these minutes played criteria (about 10 games a year) Al Montoya ranks:

    48th out of 65 in Sv%
    44th out of 65 in GSAA

    EDIT: Everyone on this list played a minimum of 60 games in those 4 seasons.

    imo, the very definition of “meh”.
    Not the goalie to give up a draft pick for.
    With a year left on his contract you pick that guy up on waivers.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I could have done without the phantom call on Lucic which may have lead to us only gaining one point on ANA instead of two and cost us a ROW (important in the tiebreak) but I will take that effort and commitment level every night and, of course, 2 points.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Wilde:
    Watching Cagguila in the defensive zone is like setting a guard dog loose, only to watch him hump the intruders leg.

    Well, that’s just poetry.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its going to be a great weekend of Oiler hockey – back to back afternoon games on the road against teams we need to catch for wildcard spot.

    How great will two regulation wins looks?

    Its likely too much to ask but I’m looking forward to tuning in.

    Go Oilers!

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would absolutely be interested in buying low on Duclair.

    How low would the acquisition cost be given there will likely be multiple teams interested?

  9. Pouzar says:

    The irony of this blog post talking about Montoya first then Maksimov right after.

  10. meanashell11 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I would absolutely be interested in buying low on Duclair.

    How low would the acquisition cost be given there will likely be multiple teams interested?

    Maybe we send them Montoya!

  11. Pouzar says:

    Forget Duclair…can we trade for a puck moving d-man….like…..i dunno….Jordan Oesterle?

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think its a weird trade at all.

    Its a month too late for this year but its a trade that solidifies our back-up position for next year. He is an experienced veteran back-up tender signed at the right price point – he’s exactly what the fans have been clamoring for for 2 years now.

    Yes, a month ago would have been great – shit, in the summer would have been better – but we got the guy now and we can check that box.

    From my understanding, he was cleared to come off IR on January 1.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, the Oilers have some nice wingers bubbling under – unfortunately, I don’t think any are ready to fill the gap that will be left by Maroon’s departure for next season.

    Sure, Yamamoto may take that spot but it could just be gifted to him due to a lack of organizational depth on the right wing.

    I really hope that Chiarelli can find a cheap established top 6 winger – likely a veteran that will sign for a short term because of the need to have a bounce back season – if nothing else to create some competition for that open top 6 winger spot.

    Makismov is having a great draft plus 1 year – 6 game goal streak and top 5 in goals in the OHL (the leader being an over-ager and 2 other guys in front of him drafted in the 2nd round – I also believe he is 4-7 games less played that 3 of the 4 guys ahead of him).

    Great arrows for Krill.

  14. bcoil says:

    My concern would be that the “old boys on the bus ” folks are inching to get back into coaching and management as in Mactavish, Lowe, Messier and Gretzky ..Now THAT would be a disaster ..

  15. Lowetide says:

    bcoil:
    My concern would be that the “old boys on the bus ” folks are inching to get back into coaching and management as in Mactavish, Lowe, Messier and Gretzky ..Now THAT would be a disaster ..

    This is a legit concern that I share.

  16. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t think its a weird trade at all.

    Its a month too late for this year but its a trade that solidifies our back-up position for next year.He is an experienced veteran back-up tender signed at the right price point – he’s exactly what the fans have been clamoring for for 2 years now.

    Yes, a month ago would have been great – shit, in the summer would have been better – but we got the guy now and we can check that box.

    From my understanding, he was cleared to come off IR on January 1.

    He is meh. A goalie you spent an asset on that you could have gotten for free.
    The numbers speak for themselves with this guy.

  17. bcoil says:

    Lowetide,

    Those four have always thought they where the smartest men in hockey since they semi retired and we all know they have Katz on speed dial

  18. HenryDrix says:

    Really like your idea of Leon, JJ and Zach on a line. That could be rambunctious and effective!

  19. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t think its a weird trade at all.

    Its a month too late for this year but its a trade that solidifies our back-up position for next year.He is an experienced veteran back-up tender signed at the right price point – he’s exactly what the fans have been clamoring for for 2 years now.

    Yes, a month ago would have been great – shit, in the summer would have been better – but we got the guy now and we can check that box.

    From my understanding, he was cleared to come off IR on January 1.

    When you look at someone like Malcolm Subban, who was acquired for a 7th, how much did Pickard cost? I mean, this is an injured player.

    How does this help the team? How is he an upgrade on Brossoit?

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    bcoil:
    My concern would be that the “old boys on the bus ” folks are inching to get back into coaching and management as in Mactavish, Lowe, Messier and Gretzky ..Now THAT would be a disaster ..

    – I have no doubt, none whatsoever that the leak about Ceci for hall and the Shannon leaks about shakeups are coming directly from the OBC staging their coup d’etat.

    – let it leak a fake trade that never happened so the narrative can be chia is sh&t. Let it leak that they aren’t happy at highest level so that coach is sh&t

    – it’s textbook obc talking to msm to get a narrative going and then let it cascade out of control until the gm and coach are done

    – if they were to be fired you are not going to get a better combo imo – anyone new will see the carousel they will ask for autonomy and ability to fire the jokers like mact Lowe etc. The org will say no then the boys in the bus are back baby

    – clear and present danger.

    – as LT said- just win baby

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    Forget Duclair…can we trade for a puck moving d-man….like…..i dunno….Jordan Oesterle?

    The guy that was a healthy scratch for apx 25 games this year?

    He’s playing well now with a plus partner – still a tweener NHLer, obviously.

  22. JimmyV1965 says:

    Geez. We’ve got an awful lot of third and fourth line wingers on this team. I’ve heard grumblings about the play of Drai lately, but look who he’s dragging along on his wing. McDavid has had three super human performances in a row, which has resulted in one goal. Absolutely staggering.

  23. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Isn’t Rishaug usually their guy for stuff like that?

    Not defending Dreger’s claim as legitimate.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: He is meh. A goalie you spent an asset on that you could have gotten for free.
    The numbers speak for themselves with this guy.

    They sure do – a .912 save percentage and 2.67 GAA last year.

    I’ll take that next year for sure.

    Of course he’s “meh” – we are talking about a back-up goaltender here making apx $1M.

    This is exactly who the fan base have been screaming for for 2 years now – an established veteran back-up who knows the roll and will generally give the team a chance to win.

    If the fanbase was expecting anything more than a Montoya-level player, then, well, the expectations were unreasonable.

  25. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: The guy that was a healthy scratch for apx 25 games this year?

    He’s playing well now with a plus partner – still a tweener NHLer, obviously.

    When you provide evidence for your views it will be a first.

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    Watching Cagguila in the defensive zone is like setting a guard dog loose, only to watch him furiously hump the intruders leg.

    That may be the single greatest comment I have ever read…anywhere.

  27. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: They sure do – a .912 save percentage and 2.67 GAA last year.

    I’ll take that next year for sure.

    A first.

  28. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: They sure do – a .912 save percentage and 2.67 GAA last year.

    I’ll take that next year for sure.

    Cherry pick if you must.

    My numbers are over 4 years.

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Isn’t Rishaug usually their guy for stuff like that?

    Not defending Dreger’s claim as legitimate.

    – a coup d etat requires multi prong. Shannon goes way back with obc. For sure these f?ckers want to punt chia and Todd. Until they are gone from the organization it’s a real problem imo.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock: When you look at someone like Malcolm Subban, who was acquired for a 7th, how much did Pickard cost?I mean, this is an injured player.

    How does this help the team?How is he an upgrade on Brossoit?

    He’s been cleared to play.

    He had very solid numbers last year.

    His numbers last year and his career numbers trump those of Brossoit.

    He’s an established veteran back-up netminder that, I would guess, the team feels more confident playing in front of than Brossoit.

    What type of tender did fans think the Oilers were going to acquire to play back-up at the right price point?

  31. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is exactly who the fan base have been screaming for for 2 years now

    Fans have been screaming for a “meh” backup goalie for years?
    Really?

  32. stush18 says:

    Montoya’s last four years have a SV% of .912, .919, .892, and .920.

    I thought we needed a backup? Or only is a fifth round pick to expensive?

    If chiarelli would have grabbed Subban, this place would have lost its collective minds. His AHL and junior stats have been piss poor. He was not the answer, and 30 other teams passed on him.

    Montoya will be our backup next year. For cheap.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: When you provide evidence for your views it will be a first.

    Evidence for what, being a healthy scratch.

    The evidence is that he was a healthy scratch.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: Cherry pick if you must.

    My numbers are over 4 years.

    My numbers are last season – this season he has only played 4 games due to injury so I throw that out.

    Using 4 years is a random sample size – why 4 and not 3 or 5?

    I’m using last season – his most recent performance.

  35. Wilde says:

    I’m going to keep banging on the Duclair drum.

    In the doghouse, 98 pdo, +3 CFrel, these are the guys worth taking flyers on.

  36. Scungilli Slushy says:

    dustrock: When you look at someone like Malcolm Subban, who was acquired for a 7th, how much did Pickard cost?I mean, this is an injured player.

    How does this help the team?How is he an upgrade on Brossoit?

    Pickard was traded for Lindberg (4th rounder, decent but meh AHL scoring) and a 6th. It was early October, but that would have been a smarter move given there are no dead certain G prospects and a goalie coming up for a raise. Likely thought they had it all sorted. Lou be smrt.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: Fans have been screaming for a “meh” backup goalie for years?
    Really?

    He’s a solid established veteran back-up tender that generally provides his team the chance to win hockey games.

    The fanbase has been calling for the acquisition of a back-up tender and if they expected any more than an Al Montoya type tender for right price point then, well, they were being unreasonable.

    What type of back-up do you expect to acquire for $1M?

    We sure as heck shouldn’t be paying any more than that.

  38. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    I’m going to keep banging on the Duclair drum.

    In the doghouse, 98 pdo, +3 CFrel, these are the guys worth taking flyers on.

    Better than Cags and Slepy, perhaps not defensively but can at least score at the NHL level. Trade one of them for him.

  39. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: My numbers are last season – this season he has only played 4 games due to injury so I throw that out.

    Using 4 years is a random sample size – why 4 and not 3 or 5?

    I’m using last season – his most recent performance.

    I did not include this season.

    I went back 4 years (including one of his best in WPG AND last season) because another poster claimed the sample of goalies wasn’t representative enough (more starters than backups). Turns out my sample has everyone playing a minimum of 15 games per year over that period.
    The sample size is more than adequate. Go back further if you like.

    You are grasping OP.

  40. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know its only a 5th rounder, but trading for a 32 year old backup goalie who is out with a concussion is just plain stupid.I have very little faith in Brossoit, he’s got a long way to go to be an NHL goalie, but I dont have much more faith in Montoya.Concussions are disastrous for goalies.

    Classic Chiarelli distraction’ary tactics, he has a history of these.
    That trade last night tells me he was expecting another loss.
    How can he fire the coach when he didn’t give him a good enough roster to begin with?
    Great win last night, more please

  41. doritogrande says:

    If we’re looking at Duclair, I wonder if we can’t package up something bigger with Ari surrounding someone’s older brother.

    Strome for a Duclair and Reider type thing?

  42. krakman says:

    Why are people afraid of Chiarelli getting punted? The longer he stays as GM the deeper the hole will be. You have to ask yourself do you want Chiarelli making the next big trade?

    Honestly I’d take Mact over Chiarelli. Mact made some huge errors (Eakins) but Chiarelli has a far longer track record of making even worse moves.

    When Mact got hired he came out with big talk about making big moves, and then didn’t make any. You know why, when the best offer is Larsson for Hall you don’t do it!!!

  43. McSorley33 says:

    leadfarmer,

    He makes the trade – in January – in a lost season.

    Somewhere, Jerred Smithson is snickering.

    In the summer, there will be plenty of back up options available.

    At this point, I hope John Shannon is right.

  44. Pouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    leadfarmer,

    He makesthe trade – in January – in a lost season.

    Somewhere, Jerred Smithson is snickering.

    In the summer, there will be plenty of back up options available.

    At this point, I hope John Shannon is right.

    This.

    Calvin Pickard was free ffs.

  45. Brantford Boy says:

    So in a nutshell we agree Montoya is a quality crappy backup thats better than Broissoit and will play 6 games this year…

    Pouzar wants Barzal and Oesterle on this team…

    LT has watched Natural Born Killers at least once…

    And OEG is staging a coup and need TMac to be the patsy…

    Wow, that dog does hunt…

  46. Wilde says:

    doritogrande,

    I don’t think I want Peter anywhere near a conversation with Chayka unless it’s just the guy Arizona has been put on notice to trade. No more larger trades for Chia.

  47. Pouzar says:

    Brantford Boy: Pouzar wants Barzal

    You sonnuva!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  48. krakman says:

    After this season Chiarelli’s big trades will amount to

    Hall, Eberle, 16th pick, 31 pick for Adam Larsson

    And people are afraid this guy might get canned?

  49. JD_Wry says:

    krakman: Honestly I’d take Mact over Chiarelli. Mact made some huge errors (Eakins) but Chiarelli has a far longer track record of making even worse moves.

    This team is still suffering from the mishandling of Petry and Dubnyk.

    I know it might not seem very nice here in the pan right now, but trust me – the fire is worse.

  50. BONE207 says:

    Wilde:
    Watching Cagguila in the defensive zone is like setting a guard dog loose, only to watch him furiously hump the intruders leg.

    I love an eye opening comment early in the day. Gets me bent out of shape for the day.

  51. HT Joe says:

    Brantford Boy:

    Pouzar wants Barzal and Oesterle on this team…

    To be fair, is there anyone who visits this blog would DOESN’T want Barzal on the Oilers? Anyone!?

    And based on how reasonable Oesterle looked in the past, and how good he’s looking now, I too want him back (not re-signing him continues to be a strange move).

  52. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Pouzar,

    I looked at your sample size.

    Montoya definitely had a rough go in 14/15 with the Panthers, and what appears to be an injury shortened season with the Jets in 12/13 (7 games) but aside from that he’s put up pretty respectable numbers in recent seasons

    13/14 – 28 2.30 13 8 3 678 0.920
    14/15 – 20 3.01 6 7 2 404 0.892
    15/16 – 25 2.18 12 7 3 559 0.919
    16/17 – 19 2.67 8 6 4 519 0.912

    Not earth shattering, not exactly piss poor and with a more established consistency of LB.

    Not quite sure I am understanding the level of freak out last night and today but it probably goes back to Chia Derangement Syndrome being in full force.

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    OriginalPouzar,

    I find it somewhat hilarious that many people here have been clamoring all season (but especially recently) to fire both TMac and Chia for sins real and imagined and then the second the possibility raises its head and we see what may follow shivers start running down spines.

    There was only ever going to be one shot for someone that didn’t play for this team to run it and now we’re getting closer and closer to seeing that shot end.

    Oh well, some prefer to wax poetic about MacT as a coach a decade ago and lament the current coach as being too stubborn or out of touch with the modern NHL.

    I’m just gonna keep cheering, keep pointing out that the underlying numbers tell me this team isn’t a dog’s breakfast that needs a massive overhaul and that despite what we think confidence is a serious factor in performance for guys that haven’t yet hit the age of 25.

  53. Jethro Tull says:

    This is one weird thread today……

    I also predicted the dreaded one for none yesterday. I also do palm readings over the phone.

    Still, Montoya is easily worth a 4th for all the Princess Bride references we can now make. Did you know he actually isn’t left handed?

  54. BONE207 says:

    meanashell11: Maybe we send them Montoya!

    Going from Meh to Max in 6 seconds. Because Oilers

  55. Pouzar says:

    JD_Wry: Dubnyk

    Who is the goalie who ranks just ahead of Jonas Gustavsson with a -13.99 GSAA over the last 4 yrs?

  56. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I don’t get why we gave up a pick when Montoya was going to have to go on waivers when he comes off IR. Habs running with Price and Niemi. Did we really think someone else was going to claim Montoya first? Really?

    And backup G should have been addressed two years ago. And yeah I want better than Montoya. There were lots of guys like Neuvirth and others who might have had a chance to actually push Talbot.

    I really do not recall this fanbase clamoring for a below average backup but maybe I was not around enough.

    Also I saw a lot of Duclair live in Tucson last season. He looked bad. Not in the game. Selfish player. Had a lot of speed and good tools at the AHL level but I am not sure he can put it together in the NHL. I would not give up a lot for him. Prefer Slepy in fact. If it really is buying low, I would be okay with it, but would not give up much if up to me.

  57. Ribs says:

    Getzlaf faced Nurse-Larsson 10:40; Klefbom-Russell 5:07, Sekera-Benning 1:46. Is that how you would handle things?

    If those are your pairings I think you kind of have to do that. You don’t want Benning or Russel being run over by the G-Train.

    Dreger is known to spout out whatever he’s told on occasion. Unless it’s confirmed by Bob (which he usually does when it’s something real), just assume it’s rumour/GM games.

    Duclair is interesting. I had included him with the 2017 7th overall pick in my Eberle trade prediction. I wonder how low the price has dropped.

  58. HT Joe says:

    krakman:
    After this season Chiarelli’s big trades will amount to

    Hall, Eberle, 16th pick, 31 pick for Adam Larsson

    And people are afraid this guy might get canned?

    It’s too bad we couldn’t just purge the assistant coaches (or at least the one who was responsible for the PP and PK this year).

    Chia has a spotted track record (some losses, but some wins), but MacT as a GM set the team back substantially. Didn’t he admit after it was clear that Petry would not re-sign (due to MacT’s challenge 1-year contract) “Gee, some team is going to get a nice d-man?” Am I mis-remembering this?

    For the record, I’m still mistrustful towards MacT, for when he was the coach and busy being slagging Penner. This is when Penner was one of our best forwards, but just not living up to even higher expectations of Oilers management.

  59. Pouzar says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    I ran the numbers, gave you where he ranked in SV% and GSAA over a 4 yr sample.
    Nothing more. I stand by what I said. Giving up a draft pick for something that could be had for $$ is bad asset management.

  60. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    That aside I agree that this team just needs a retool, not rebuild. Keep all the other picks. Stock up.

    Add a puckmoving RHD and a RW shooter this summer and a Maroon replacement (or sign Maroon for cheap). Work on PK and PP all summer. Try again.

    Think better results coming next year.

    No big trades, please.

  61. OmJo says:

    Wilde:
    Watching Cagguila in the defensive zone is like setting a guard dog loose, only to watch him furiously hump the intruders leg.

    L. O. L.

  62. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    krakman,

    He played a raw rookie as first pairing Dman in each of the seasons he was here while also saying said Dman would win a Norris trophy

    He said he was happy with and trusted a defense that had Nikita Nikitin as one of its rocks

    He publicly called out his starting goaltender before the season began

    He “challenged” his only RHD who subsequently beat said challenge and then went to Montreal because he was tired of getting dicked around (which subsequently led to the need to trade for someone like I dunno Adam Larsson)

    He fired a head coach, loved by his players via skype in order to hire a rookie NHL coach

    He also brought in a series of “has beens” to augment the teams leadership and I am almost certain he played a role in naming TCAF further pissing off his star players.

    The decisions above led to the worst two seasons I ever remember as an Oilers fan

    The only single redeeming quality about MacT’s tenure as GM was they got McDavid out of it

  63. Pouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    That aside I agree that this team just needs a retool, notrebuild. Keep all the other picks. Stock up.

    Add a puckmoving RHD and a RW shooter this summer and a Maroon replacement (or sign Maroon for cheap). Work on PK and PP all summer. Try again.

    Think better results coming next year.

    No big trades, please.

    Yup. Bad seasons happen and so do bounce back seasons.
    Trim some fat, work on the special teams, win the cup next season.

  64. PhrankLee says:

    I shudder at the suggestion of the OBC taking us down the rabbit hole.

    It scares me because it’s actually plausible. That says more about the bad hands the team appears to be in than the hands on ice skating it out.

    It’s so early to start talking a management change.

  65. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar: When you provide evidence for your views it will be a first.

    Pouzar bringing it today…pinballing with his helmet on backwards. Lookout for the shrapnel…LOL

  66. Woogie63 says:

    I meet an old friend for a beer last night.

    He is in the LAK organization now, strongly suggested they were happy to have Cammi out of the Kings dressing room.

  67. frjohnk says:

    Jethro Tull: Did you know he actually isn’t left handed?

    *faints*

  68. Jethro Tull says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    That aside I agree that this team just needs a retool, notrebuild. Keep all the other picks. Stock up.

    Add a puckmoving RHD and a RW shooter this summer and a Maroon replacement (or sign Maroon for cheap). Work on PK and PP all summer. Try again.

    Think better results coming next year.

    No big trades, please.

    You were right until the last sentence. How do you, or indeed, anyone here, think a retooling can be accomplished without trades? Keep the picks. Well that’s your base currency for small deals bar tbe 1st, gone. No warm bodies because of ‘potential ceilings’.

    This team needs a retool. You trade who isn’t working for you for somebody who might.

  69. Pretendergast says:

    1. Many of you are all salty cause Chiarelli, which is fair, but to the few that would prefer mact, cmon thats just trolling.

    2.pouzar op hasnt attacked you at all and youre ripping him, this is how regular posters leave, a genuine discussion cant be had on someone thats trying to see the positive. If you hate everythig start your own blog.

    3. The trade was too late, doesnt mean it shouldnt have been made, nobody has a perfect track record either.

    4. We all knew the problems going into the season, why is anyone surprised at what happened? Why would anyone want to pat themselves on the back for being right about that? Honestly i love this blog but the toxicoty to the people that are just fans is insane, even minute to minute on game feeds its all bipolar reactions. All of you are fun posters, lighten up a little.

    End rant that will get ripped on because opinion

  70. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: You were right until the last sentence. How do you, or indeed, anyone here, think a retooling can be accomplished without trades?Keep the picks. Well that’s your base currency for small deals bar tbe 1st, gone. No warm bodies because of ‘potential ceilings’.

    This team needs a retool. You trade who isn’t working for you for somebody who might.

    I think you add some speed/penalty killing acumen without “big” trades.

  71. BONE207 says:

    Pouzar: Fans have been screaming for a “meh” backup goalie for years?
    Really?

    Well the screaming is actually due to the sore knees because the fans have been praying for so long. Now it’s wailing due to banging of heads into cinder blocks.

  72. Ribs says:

    How is Montoya on the Penalty Kill. It would be neat to see a special teams goalie! Haha *visions of Mike Morrison*

  73. BONE207 says:

    Wilde:
    I’m going to keep banging on the Duclair drum.

    In the doghouse, 98 pdo, +3 CFrel, these are the guys worth taking flyers on.

    So you’re saying this is another guard dog? I wish we had a better clue on these dogs earlier. There’s a lot howling today.

  74. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Jethro Tull: You were right until the last sentence. How do you, or indeed, anyone here, think a retooling can be accomplished without trades?Keep the picks. Well that’s your base currency for small deals bar tbe 1st, gone. No warm bodies because of ‘potential ceilings’.

    This team needs a retool. You trade who isn’t working for you for somebody who might.

    Key word was big. To me big would be a Nuge or Drai or Klef or Nurse trade.
    I would be ok with a lefty D for righty D trade.
    As for keeping the picks I meant in season here where we spend them on a backup goalie or 7th D or something we can just sign for money in summer.
    If Klef and a 3rd would get Trouba for example, I would change my tune a bit. But otherwise I don’t want to see Nuge for Patches, for example.

    What I am saying is the team could use a few tweaks but I don’t want to see a blowup. That could set us back years.

  75. JD_Wry says:

    Pouzar: Who is the goalie who ranks just ahead of Jonas Gustavsson with a -13.99 GSAA over the last 4 yrs?

    I’m talking about MacT questioning said goalie in public, trading him away for almost nothing, and then firing the goalie coach. Doobie goes on to get some good guidance and coaching, and eventually nominated for a Vezina.

    The guy who is 15 – 8 – 2 this season with a .920. Yeah, this team couldn’t use him right now. But where would they be without 3 seasons of Hendy?

    The level of crazy around even suggesting MacT would be better, has just reached batshit.

  76. frjohnk says:

    Totally fine if Chia is punted.

    Would need someone with a vision of where the game is and is going, not where it has been.

    No old Oilers please

  77. Wilde says:

    BONE207,

    Duclair is more like a pit bull circa 1990’s, cast aside prematurely based on perceived personality problems, after he he lost his cuteness in puppyhood/rookieness.

  78. JimmyV1965 says:

    Someone only needs to look at our farm team to be deathly afraid of the OBC getting involved at decision making at any level. It’s absolutely shocking that a team with 10 years of high second round picks has utterly failed to produce even one impact player. If they fired all the scouts and simply went with next up on the Central Scouting list, surely they would have produced a player or two.

    I’m not exactly thrilled with the performance of Chia, but at least he’s done a good job drafting. And I’m terrified of what the OBC will do next should they decide to dump him.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    USA vs. Czech for bronze at 3 mountain today. I wonder if:

    1) Yamamoto is able to play; and

    2) If Safin will get any material ice time. He’s barely played since the round robin.

  80. krakman says:

    I was no fan of Mact as gm and would not hire him back, but Chiarreli’s mistakes have been far worse than Mact’s. If you look at Chiarreli’s track record he’s on pace to take Mike Millbury’s crown.

  81. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar: I think you add some speed/penalty killing acumen without “big” trades.

    Sort of a Hoffman trade? That keeps getting shot down. Because we already have shitty players. Trading them for other shitty players makes no sense. We need better players. They cost.

  82. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Agreed and this is why the bombs (Dreger and Shannon) of the last few days are so concerning.

    On one hand I’m willing to say it’s just the vultures circling because their favourite pet (Leafs) have cooled significantly since their hot start and they need a whipping post.

    On the other I’m very cognizant of Kingers analysis that this is coming from “inside the house” and that thought is beyond terrifying IMO

    Stay the course, the team isn’t terrible, they lack any semblance of confidence whatsoever on special teams and that malaise is team wide (seriously McD 5v5 is fire, 5v4 barely a spark).

    And despite the crap results so far they’re still a helluva lot better than that record indicates

  83. jtblack says:

    PC is like the busy sales person who has misplaced his/her to do list.

    He wrote it in July and has just now Found it.

    ITEM #1 – Established Veteran Backup. COMPLETE “Glad that is taken care of”
    ITEM #2 – Shore up D in Sekera’s abscence. “Dammit, He’s back already”
    ITEM #3 – Veteran RW help .. “I will get right on this:, MacT, what assets do I have left”
    ITEM #4 – Sit back and wait for Playoffs to Begin. “SHIT, the season is not going as planned”

  84. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    USA vs. Czech for bronze at 3 mountain today.I wonder if:

    1) Yamamoto is able to play; and

    2) If Safin will get any material ice time.He’s barely played since the round robin.

    Safin seems so Benoit Poulioty to me. Big dude, appears lazy, coach not fond of him, high skill at times but inconsistent.

    I like both players FWIW

  85. Munny says:

    LT said…

    Strome has big parts of the game right at his feet and is unable to think or act quickly enough to impact them. I’ll say this: He’s smart and skilled enough to get himself to good spots, which makes his lack of impact more galling.

    Funny you mention this because I’ve focused a lot on Strome’s game this past week. Perhaps not the best week to see what he’s best at, but this is what I have to say…

    He has the tools… great shot, softish hands, decent skater, but I don’t think he has the brains or the awareness. There are moments of hesitation when you can see him actually thinking, and then the moment is lost and the puck is in trouble or an opportunity missed. He had one play last night near the offensive blue line, similar to the open net the other night, when he just was not aware of an opportunity to make a strong play.

    It is maddening because he has the physical tools. I don’t think he has the head though.

    I am hoping we can upgrade his position for next season or somehow unlock the brain.

  86. BONE207 says:

    Jethro Tull:

    .I also do palm readings over the phone.

    I graciously request your phone number. I’ve got a shlong list of things I need fixin’.
    …and don’t try substituting WG’s number…we all know that one.

  87. Munny says:

    JD_Wry: The guy who is 15 – 8 – 2 this season with a .920. Yeah, this team couldn’t use him right now. But where would they be without 3 seasons of Hendy?

    Where the Jets are right now? 😉

    #missingpiece

  88. krakman says:

    Jethro Tull: Sort of a Hoffman trade? That keeps getting shot down. Because we already have shitty players. Trading them for other shitty players makes no sense. We need better players. They cost.

    We had better players but traded them away for shittier players.

  89. Pouzar says:

    JD_Wry: I’m talking about MacT questioning said goalie in public, trading him away for almost nothing, and then firing the goalie coach. Doobie goes on to get some good guidance and coaching, and eventually nominated for a Vezina.

    The guy who is 15 – 8 – 2 this season with a .920. Yeah, this team couldn’t use him right now. But where would they be without 3 seasons of Hendy?

    The level of crazy around even suggesting MacT would be better, has just reached batshit.

    Don’t be mad bro. Just showin da numbers.

  90. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Hoffman makes 5m. So Maroon would go and someone else, too, plus whatever assets required to get him. I could get behind it depending on the cost but am leery of the cost. Would rather stay the course with cheaper options until internal solutions from young guys come.

    I think we can add a Hagelin or Grabner type for the 3rd line as well. Strome is playing his way out of town at this rate.

  91. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woogie63:
    I meet an old friend for a beer last night.

    He is in the LAK organization now, strongly suggested they were happy to have Cammi out of the Kings dressing room.

    Funny you say that, I remember Sportsnet showing Cammi talking to Letestu and then Kassian on the bench after he scored a goal, and both of them looked upward and rolled their eyes. I know it’s nothing, but I remember thinking at the time, “what the hell did he say to these guys because they were clearly less than impressed.”

  92. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s a solid established veteran back-up tender that generally provides his team the chance to win hockey games.

    The fanbase has been calling for the acquisition of a back-up tender and if they expected any more than an Al Montoya type tender for right price point then, well, they were being unreasonable.

    What type of back-up do you expect to acquire for $1M?

    We sure as heck shouldn’t be paying any more than that.

    A backup goalie coming off a serious concussion would have been very low on my list. Concussions are very serious for guys who focus is their job. Its one thing if its a good starting goalie, but there is not much room for backups to decline to be AHL quality goalies

  93. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Sort of a Hoffman trade? That keeps getting shot down. Because we already have shitty players. Trading them for other shitty players makes no sense. We need better players. They cost.

    You can add bottom 6 PKers without “big” trades.

    We’ll agree to disagree.

  94. OilSafety says:

    Ribs: If those are your pairings I think you kind of have to do that. You don’t want Benning or Russel being run over by the G-Train.

    Dreger is known to spout out whatever he’s told on occasion. Unless it’s confirmed by Bob (which he usually does when it’s something real), just assume it’s rumour/GM games.

    Duclair is interesting. I had included him with the 2017 7th overall pick in my Eberle trade prediction. I wonder how low the price has dropped.

    I honestly don’t know what is going to happen when Bob retires. He’s just about the only reputable guy left. Perhaps Elliot takes his place.

  95. JD_Wry says:

    Bob McKenzie‏
    Verified account

    @TSNBobMcKenzie
    Follow
    Follow @TSNBobMcKenzie

    More
    No Logan Brown (OTT) for Team USA in bronze medal game vs. CZE today. With Will Lockwood (VAN) already out of tourney, USA down to 11 forwards. Kailer Yamamoto (EDM) expected to play but may be hobbled after slash from SWE Oskar Steen in SF. Steen has disciplinary hearing.

  96. Pouzar says:

    When I look at a stat (GSAA) and see:

    1. ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY
    2 SERGEI.BOBROVSKY
    3 COREY.CRAWFORD
    4 CORY.SCHNEIDER
    5 HENRIK.LUNDQVIST

    I give it some credence.

    Doobie doesn’t look good by this metric.
    S’all I’m sayin.

  97. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I have no doubt, none whatsoever that the leak about Ceci for hall and the Shannon leaks about shakeups are coming directly from the OBC staging their coup d’etat.

    – let it leak a fake trade that never happened so the narrative can be chia is sh&t. Let it leak that they aren’t happy at highest level so that coach is sh&t

    – it’s textbook obc talking to msm to get a narrative going and then let it cascade out of control until the gm and coach are done

    – if they were to be fired you are not going to get a better combo imo – anyone new will see the carousel they will ask for autonomy and ability to fire the jokers like mact Lowe etc. The org will say no then the boys in the bus are back baby

    – clear and present danger.

    – as LT said- just win baby

    If Nicholson is doing his job he nips this out of school chatter in the bud, show us the past is done like they said.

    If not, let’s just get it over with. Let the OBC – the full meal deal OBC with Gretz and Mess, might as well get Kurri in as well – destroy 4 – 5 years of Connor, screw it up big time beaucoup, and clear the lot out for good except as ambassadors which they should only be, like a well run team.

    I have enough time left God willing to see a normal franchise before I die. And I am well tired of this dance.

  98. OilSafety says:

    I think the best part of the trade is it means Brossoit should get more time in net, which I think we can all agree he needs.

    I saw someone on twitter mention that Montoya wasn’t going to be activated anytime soon as there was no need with two goalies ahead of him, hence he wouldn’t be available on waivers either.

    It’s possible Brossoit had a say in this, ‘if your not going to play me here, put me back down so I can get some net time and prove myself’

    It can’t be a good place for him to be when he isn’t trusted to play and can’t do anything about it.

  99. Side says:

    JimmyV1965: Funny you say that, I remember Sportsnet showing Cammi talking to Letestu and then Kassian on the bench after he scored a goal, and both of them looked upward and rolled their eyes. I know it’snothing, but I remember thinking at the time,“what the hell didhe say to these guys because they were clearly less than impressed.”

    Probably said something like

    “Caggs is lookin real good out there eh boys?!”

  100. krakman says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Well the current gm has already wasted 3 years of McDavid so steady as she goes.

  101. OilSafety says:

    Pretendergast:
    1. Many of you areall salty cause Chiarelli, which is fair, but to the few that would prefer mact, cmon thats just trolling.

    2.pouzar op hasnt attacked you at all and youre ripping him, this is how regular posters leave, a genuine discussion cant be had on someone thats trying to see the positive. If you hate everythig start your own blog.

    3. The trade was too late, doesnt mean it shouldnt have been made, nobody has a perfect track record either.

    4. We all knew the problems going into the season, why is anyone surprised at what happened? Why would anyone want to pat themselves on the back for being right about that? Honestly i love this blog but the toxicoty to the people that are just fans is insane, even minute to minute on game feeds its all bipolar reactions. All of you are fun posters, lighten up a little.

    End rant that will get ripped on because opinion

    +1

  102. russ99 says:

    We’re at $60M locked in next year, with a boat load of RFAs and Nurse who’s play may have taken him out of bridge deal territory.

    Even if the cap goes up to $80M (the players and their dislike of escrow has something to say yet), that doesn’t leave much for needed improvements.

    Trades have to be done. Sell Maroon and Letestu for picks, Figure out which RFAs you don’t want back and move them, and to make 2 quality additions (LW/RW and RD) we need to move a big salary, likely RNH, with a very slight chance Sekera waives his NMC.

    The McDavid core is the whole pie right now, we need to stop whining about rebuild era pieces moving out for things we need. Every organization has to do it at some point, and it hurts, but is necessary for us to reach our potential.

    Every team I follow a has a favorite player who has been traded, it’s part of sports now. I’ll cry like a baby when the Astros move Altuve, but it’s inevitable at some point.

    RNH won’t play his whole career here. We should prepare for it and be happy if by some chance it doesn’t happen.

  103. Westchester Oil says:

    What I think is missing in this Montoya-Brossoit conversation is where does Nick Ellis fit it now that Montoya is under contract for the next 1 1/2 years? Would have been nice if TMac gave him a sniff when Talbot was hurt so we could have had an idea of what we’ve got here.

  104. russ99 says:

    Westchester Oil:
    What I think is missing in this Montoya-Brossoit conversation is where does Nick Ellis fit it now that Montoya is under contract for the next 1 1/2 years? Would have been nice if TMac gave him a sniff when Talbot was hurt so we could have had an idea of what we’ve got here.

    Goalies are voodoo. Would rather have 4 good prospect options and have 1 pan out than have not enough and get stuck spending huge cash for one in FA.

  105. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Wilde:
    Watching Cagguila in the defensive zone is like setting a guard dog loose, only to watch him furiously hump the intruders leg.

    Duclair is more like a pit bull circa 1990’s, cast aside prematurely based on perceived personality problems, after he lost his cuteness in puppyhood/rookieness.

    Safin seems so Benoit Poulioty to me. Big dude, appears lazy, coach not fond of him, high skill at times but inconsistent.

    Wilde really bringing his “A” game today. Just killing it.

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    krakman:
    Why are people afraid of Chiarelli getting punted? The longer he stays as GM the deeper the hole will be. You have to ask yourself do you want Chiarelli making the next big trade?

    Honestly I’d take Mact over Chiarelli. Mact made some huge errors (Eakins) but Chiarelli has a far longer track record of making even worse moves.

    When Mact got hired he came out with big talk about making big moves, and then didn’t make any. You know why, when the best offer is Larsson for Hall you don’t do it!!!

    I think it was more likely a guy with almost no experience or in his position came in hot, thinking out loud, talking big and his colleagues thought ‘I don’t think so Craig’. Came off as cocky to me, that usually goes down well with those that have been doing a job for a long time.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: I did not include this season.

    I went back 4 years (including one of his best in WPG AND last season) because another poster claimed the sample of goalies wasn’t representative enough (more starters than backups). Turns out my sample has everyone playing a minimum of 15 games per year over that period.
    The sample size is more than adequate. Go back further if you like.

    You are grasping OP.

    I’m not grasping at anything.

    I quite like Montoya’s numbers in 3 of the last 4 years. I’ll take save percentage of .920, .919, .912 from my back-up tender (in 28, 25 and 19 games).

    Good stuff Al.

  108. frjohnk says:

    JD_Wry: The level of crazy around even suggesting MacT would be better, has just reached batshit.

    The argument of having MacT here instead of Chia would be better for us is not so batshit crazy.

    Go back to before the lottery win in 15.
    Stauffer suggested many times that if Hamilton was not going to sign with the Bruins, that Edmonton would definitely be in the running to go after him. With Chia in Edmonton, Boston did not want to deal with us, but if ( and of course its a big “if” in another universe) MacT or heck, another GM is the one dealing with the Bruins, we have a better chance of getting Hamilton instead of Reinhart.

    If the team gets Hamilton instead of Reinhart, you dont need to trade Hall for Larsson

    At the end of the day, getting Chia and Larsson here basically cost us Hall, 16th and 33rd overall in 2015 and 53rd overall in 2017.

    I like Larsson but those are significant assets out and when looking at our prospect group there is no calvary coming in the next few years that will have much of an impact.

    The roster we have today is pretty much the same for next year ( minus Maroon)

    Currently we are in 26th spot and while most would agree we are better than that, we have to realize we have seen almost 23% of Connor McDavids career as an Oiler ( if he chooses to hit UFA at the end of this contract) and we still have significant roster issues.

    I was a huge Chia fan when hired as I had enough of MacT and defended Chia here in quite a few deals, but looking at his track record not anymore Id be fine with Chia getting punted now

    I dont think MacT was the answer, but its possible having him here instead of Chia, we would be a better spot.

  109. Jethro Tull says:

    BONE207: I graciously request your phone number. I’ve got a shlong list of things I need fixin’.
    …and don’t try substituting WG’snumber…we all know that one.

    Ok, but give me time to get into character. This Caribbean accent isn’t easy.

  110. Scungilli Slushy says:

    HT Joe: It’s too bad we couldn’t just purge the assistant coaches (or at least the one who was responsible for the PP and PK this year).

    Chia has a spotted track record (some losses, but some wins), but MacT as a GM set the team back substantially.Didn’t he admit after it was clear that Petry would not re-sign (due to MacT’s challenge 1-year contract) “Gee, some team is going to get a nice d-man?”Am I mis-remembering this?

    For the record, I’m still mistrustful towards MacT, for when he was the coach and busy being slagging Penner.This is when Penner was one of our best forwards, but just not living up to even higher expectations of Oilers management.

    I for one have had enough of the unprofessional behavior we got to live through. Funny as a coach or player, not so much from management.

  111. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Even if the cap goes up to $80M (the players and their dislike of escrow has something to say yet), that doesn’t leave much for needed improvements.

    Trades have to be done. Sell Maroon and Letestu for picks, Figure out which RFAs you don’t want back and move them, and to make 2 quality additions (LW/RW and RD) we need to move a big salary, likely RNH, with a very slight chance Sekera waives his NMC.

    I have to wonder if we sell Maroon and Letestu for picks and then trade RNH for a lesser winger and a lesser Dman, do we have to hope that internal growth can push us into a playoff spot for next year? We have no calvary coming and we dont have much for cap space to add an impact player.

    And we are hoping that the PK and PP get fixed. Im hoping for league average special teams next year. And hope that goaltending is more like 16-17 than it is 17-18.
    Imagine if we have to add a $4M plus goalie next year.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Westchester Oil:
    What I think is missing in this Montoya-Brossoit conversation is where does Nick Ellis fit it now that Montoya is under contract for the next 1 1/2 years? Would have been nice if TMac gave him a sniff when Talbot was hurt so we could have had an idea of what we’ve got here.

    I think the answer to this question is related to where Borssoit fits in. I wonder if they don’t qualify LB and let him go in free agency. I don’t suspect they will let the asset go just like that after years of investment but, perhaps.

  113. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Maroon has been ice cold since December. One goal maybe.

  114. Professor Q says:

    OilSafety: I honestly don’t know what is going to happen when Bob retires. He’s just about the only reputable guy left. Perhaps Elliot takes his place.

    After the emails came out, Bob’s (McKenzie) “reputable” reputation went down a bit for me.

  115. texmex says:

    Reid Wilkins

    Verified account

    @ReidWilkins
    16m16 minutes ago
    More
    Brossoit calls the Montoya trade a bit of a blindside.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  116. JD_Wry says:

    Pouzar: Doobie doesn’t look good by this metric.

    You’ve missed my point, so I’ll try to be more clear.

    If Chia’s asset mgmt. of this 4th round pick for Monty is horrible, then MacT’s asset mgmt. of Doobie was _________.

    Fill in the blank for me.

  117. OilSafety says:

    texmex:
    Reid Wilkins

    Verified account

    @ReidWilkins16m16 minutes ago
    More
    Brossoit calls the Montoya trade a bit of a blindside.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    Ouch! I retract my previous musings but still think it’s in his best interest to play more, even at the ahl level.

  118. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    We don’t need anymore projects taking up roster spots.

  119. Yegfoundation says:

    I’ve got a lot of time for Kevin Lowe because of his and his wife’s years of community service and charity work, and because of his reputation of a promoter of our city and province.

    If Kevin returns to a hockey operations role with the Oiler’s, I will be cheering for him to have success.

  120. Wilde says:

    texmex,

    Brossoit’s been dicked around so much already too. Got champions in management, dementors in coaching.

  121. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    frjohnk,

    And if we didn’t have MacT to gift Schultz 1D minutes, flush Petry and Dubnyk while giving prominent roles to NN the TCAF and hiring the Dementor we probably wouldn’t have McDavid…

    Second guessing GM moves only works for so long or else you find the previous guys epic screw ups and there were many from MacT.

    Also now that we are at/passed the midway here’s my quick 20 seconds of teams that could be due for a correction in the 2nd half of they year.

    Leafs – Wickedly good goalering and a hot offensive start pushed them high to start they year. Both of those also masked a team with huge defensive issues. Not saying they will fall from grace but keep an eye on them in the second half. Andersen hasn’t been lights out lately and their underlying numbers aren’t great. The Great McDavid Shadow didn’t have a point since late November until last night as an example.

    Devils – Same sort of explanation applies here, very strong PP and some good goalering has masked sub-standard fancies since late November. If Schneider goes on the scheind at all I could see them plummeting from their current perch.

    Colorado – Tough to pin this one down, fancies are all over the map, somedays hot somedays very cold. Me thinks that after the year of Duchene Drama these guys are finally playing loose and carefree. I could see them riding this for a bit but their schedule gets tougher in the second half and wouldn’t be shocked to see them fall.

  122. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Trading for a guy on ir with no known return date makes no sense at all.

  123. OilClog says:

    The GM doesn’t get a back up during the run last year, doesn’t get a back up for the first 12 weeks of this lost season, then gets a back up when they’re not making a run.

    This guy is Tambi with his wig off.

    None of it matters though when he provides his head fucking coach one Milan Lucic and the head fucking coach ices Letestu infront of the net on the PP. Hey guys not only are we going to slot Letestu in the shooters spot, he’s also going to screen the goalie and battle it out. Fuck the giant shooting Finn I have, Mark Letestu is the standard for do it all players.

    But hey we have an aging, broken, mediocre back up now! Only costed a draft pick when other teams get these players for free. WTF!

  124. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    They wanted Nurse, We didn’t want to give up Nurse. The first and a second were not an option given to us. You won’t trade us Nurse, fine we will trade him to your competition

  125. Oilman99 says:

    Yegfoundation,

    Why,so we can back down the rabbit hole for ten more years?

  126. JD_Wry says:

    frjohnk: The argument of having MacT here instead of Chia would be better for us is not so batshit crazy.

    This was something like 5 or 6 weeks before the Lucky Balls lotto:

    I’m reasonably comfortable going forward with Oscar and Justin and Nikita and Andrew and Mark Fayne.

    YUUUUGE batshit. Batman-sized batshit.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Trading for a guy on ir with no known return date makes no sense at all.

    He was cleared to play on January 1.

  128. dustrock says:

    texmex:
    Reid Wilkins

    Verified account

    @ReidWilkins16m16 minutes ago
    More
    Brossoit calls the Montoya trade a bit of a blindside.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    Well, to be fair, Brossoit has trouble tracking things coming from strange angles.

  129. JD_Wry says:

    Yegfoundation: I’ve got a lot of time for Kevin Lowe

    User name checks out!

    As Stauffer would say, “Thank you caller!”

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilSafety: Ouch! I retract my previous musings but still think it’s in his best interest to play more, even at the ahl level.

    As per Reid Wilkings: LB adds he was told he needs to play more and development needs to be a priority right now. Says, “There’s good in every situation and I plan on finding that.”

  131. Oilman99 says:

    Woogie63,

    Maybe the surprise trade was enough to knock his big ego down a notch or two.

  132. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Still basically has not played all year,questionable if he is any better of an option than LB.

  133. Surrey Oiler says:

    texmex:
    Reid Wilkins

    Verified account

    @ReidWilkins16m16 minutes ago
    More
    Brossoit calls the Montoya trade a bit of a blindside.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    LB needs to go away, he will see the writing on the wall when he clears waivers. Everyone will be surprised of what Montoya will bring to this team! I like the trade, got a legit back up,. Could Chia have got a better back up…yes, but this is the best he could get without trading a ROSTER player, which LB will never be!

    Can’t wait to see Montoya to get his first start and silence people.

    Good job Chia…now get Evander or Hoffman pls

  134. McSorley33 says:

    Al Montoya turns 33 next month…..wow.

    Clean House.

    No OBC members need apply for the new position.

    Are there any David Poile protege’s around?

  135. New Improved Darkness says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yamamoto may take that spot but it could just be gifted to him

    Potato: Hey, Yam, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

    Yam steps down off packing crate.

    Yam: But I’ve never seen a horse’s mouth before.

    Ed [stamping]: Hey, you like my playoff beard, or what?

    Yam: You know what? Also the first time I’ve ever seen a mullet comb-over.

    Potato: I think you should spend more time up in the hay loft. You can see things from up there. You know, you might learn something new.

    Yam: You mean without Lauren Bacall blocking my view?

    Yam takes out photograph.

    Potato: Maybe you should have borrowed her shoes—

    Yam: —well, we tried, but my feet were too big.

    Potato: You have big feet?

    Yam: Huuuuuge.

  136. Side says:

    Surrey Oiler: LB needs to go away, he will see the writing on thewall when he clears waivers. Everyone will be surprised of what Montoya will bring to this team! I like the trade, got a legit back up,. Could Chia have got a better back up…yes, but this is the best he could get without trading a ROSTER player, which LB will never be!

    Can’t wait to see Montoya to get his first start and silence people.

    Good job Chia…now get Evander or Hoffman pls

    I hope Montoya plays great so it will silence one person in particular over the topic of LB….

    *HINT HINT*

  137. Munny says:

    BONE207: I graciously request your phone number. I’ve got a shlong list of things I need fixin’.
    …and don’t try substituting WG’snumber…we all know that one.

    Woodguy would probably read your left palm

  138. Thinker says:

    The Montoya trade makes no sense from here. The extra year is particularily concerning. He’s at cliff goalie age, and has been shitty about as often as he’s been good. If this was a month ago, you could maybe justify it as the only option for a desperate team, but I don’t see the logic now. Depending on how many games he plays this year, he is a potential buyout candididate.

  139. John Chambers says:

    dustrock: Well, to be fair, Brossoit has trouble tracking things coming from strange angles.

    Zing!
    frjohnk,

    The sequence of moves you suggest are possible, but …

    To me Chia’s main objective since coming on board was to overturn the organizatoin’s losing culture to put the Oilers in a position to sign McDavid long-term. Mission Accomplished.

    People hate the Lucic contract, which I understand. I believe Lucic currently delivers roughly $5M worth of value ot the team, meaning he’s a very useful top-6 winger, so anyone who suggests Lucic is utter garbage cannot have a sensible conversation with me.

    Not that you have, but I bring up Lucic because he was essential in turning the tide that got us into the playoffs last year, and subsequently got McDavid inked all the way through to 2026.

    Chia has made some questionable moves, but none of them devastating. The Oilers are unlikely to make the playoffs this year, which I find frustrating, but if it affords us the opportunity to get something for Maroon, Letestu, and Sekera (I hope they can trade his contract and Sek waives his NMC). If they do, I think Chia’s moves have put us in a strong position to compete year over year over year.

    The core of this team is very good, and very very young. We will enjoy many successful seasons over the next 7 or 8 years.

  140. anjinsan says:

    Instead of the talk of preferring MacT, how about talk of a GM who has done well?
    MacT brought us the bloated contracts of Ference, Purcell, Fayne, etc. and squandered Petry, Dubnyk, really blew it with not taking the proper time with Schultz — and FIRED the worthy Krueger in favor of the degeneracy of Eakins, who regressed the entire team and started Yak on a downward spiral.

    Shero, the second fleecer of Chiarelli during Chiarelli’s time here, has been drafting and developing with the express vision in mind of building a team of speed and talent. (What an irony that a Devils team would become a hot bed of speed and talent – eh Scott Stevens, where ever you are?) I am no Devils fan, and I expressly detest playing the trap, but a friend of mine is an ardent Devils fan, dating way back, and a serious hockey scout — two years ago he told me of Shero’s vision and has gone through with me their last two years of drafts explaining how the picks support Shero’s vision. Well — look what a sound GM has done based on this year, and it will only continue.

    Instead of referencing MacT, it is much more constructive to study GMs who have sound vision and who are making it happen.

  141. Munny says:

    JD_Wry: You’ve missed my point, so I’ll try to be more clear.

    If Chia’s asset mgmt. of this 4th round pick for Monty is horrible, then MacT’s asset mgmt. of Doobie was _________.

    Fill in the blank for me.

    Violent?

  142. John Chambers says:

    Thinker:
    The Montoya trade makes no sense from here. The extra year is particularily concerning. He’s at cliff goalie age, and has been shitty about as often as he’s been good. If this was a month ago, you could maybe justify it as the only option for a desperate team, but I don’t see the logic now. Depending on how many games he plays this year, he is a potential buyout candididate.

    He can be buried in the minors with negligible impact on the team cap. It would cost the Oilers more against the cap to buy him out.

    He’s a good goalie. Better than Brossoit at this point.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    Al Montoya turns 33 next month…..wow.

    Clean House.

    No OBC members need apply for the new position.

    Are there any David Poile protege’s around?

    He’s signed for one year – his age is a non-factor in his ability to play goaltender for the Oilers next year.

    33 is not old for a goaltender.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker:
    The Montoya trade makes no sense from here. The extra year is particularily concerning. He’s at cliff goalie age, and has been shitty about as often as he’s been good. If this was a month ago, you could maybe justify it as the only option for a desperate team, but I don’t see the logic now. Depending on how many games he plays this year, he is a potential buyout candididate.

    The extra year is what makes the trade make sense. The back-up position has been solidified for next year – as the fan base had been asking for.

    His last four years provided the following save percentages:

    .920
    .892
    .919
    .912

    Bad just as often as good or generally good? Option B looks right to me.

  145. Jethro Tull says:

    JD_Wry: User name checks out!

    As Stauffer would say, “Thank you caller!”

    As LT would say, “The calls are coming from inside the house.”

  146. Jethro Tull says:

    JD_Wry: You’ve missed my point, so I’ll try to be more clear.

    If Chia’s asset mgmt. of this 4th round pick for Monty is horrible, then MacT’s asset mgmt. of Doobie was _________.

    Fill in the blank for me.

    Material

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Interesting that the info I intimated here Jan 2nd: “OBC doesn’t like Peter” ( https://lowetide.ca/2018/01/02/g40-2017-18-kings-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-702487) has slipped into the mainstream via old CBC producer John Shannon and old coach and GM Doug McLean.

    All of you who derided me for my post can line up to the left and apologize.

    Just apologize, no prostrating yourself, sack clothe, ashes, etc, no need for a scene.

  148. John Chambers says:

    anjinsan,

    Good post.

    I think Chiarelli’s “heavy hockey” was a sensible philosophy to apply to the organization when he spoke those words. Teams weren’t taking the Oilers seriously, and that changed in a hurry.

    The flipside is you still need a mobile d-corps, which is a yet-to-be-completed project. But finding mobile defenders is an ongoing process. We are one Will Butcher away from having Balance.

    The Oilers are a good team with putrid approach to special teams. Fix the latter and we are a top-10 club.

  149. LMHF#1 says:

    You know people are disturbingly jaded when the only options in their heads are the new guy or the old guy.

    Come on people…pull yourselves together.

  150. Jethro Tull says:

    Here’s my number: 780 414 LIVE (5483).

  151. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Interesting that the info I intimated here Jan 2nd:“OBC doesn’t like Peter” ( https://lowetide.ca/2018/01/02/g40-2017-18-kings-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-702487)has slipped into the mainstream via old CBC producer John Shannon and old coach and GM Doug McLean.

    All of you who derided me for my post can line up to the left and apologize.

    Just apologize, no prostrating yourself, sack clothe, ashes, etc, no need for a scene.

    Juat asked for sources. Didn’t deride you.

    #sorrynotsorry

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar:
    When I look at a stat (GSAA) and see:

    1. ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY
    2SERGEI.BOBROVSKY
    3COREY.CRAWFORD
    4CORY.SCHNEIDER
    5HENRIK.LUNDQVIST

    I give it some credence.

    Doobie doesn’t look good by this metric.
    S’all I’m sayin.

    GSAA is better than SV% for rating goalies vs. each other as it takes into account shot quality and the whole “but he plays for a team with better defence” argument is lessened.

    Not eliminated, but lessened.

    It will be eliminated when we get pre-shot puck movement and player positions on the ice.

    That said, ALWAYS use GSAA per 100 shots.

    Not all teams allow shots at a similar rate (so don’t use per 60 minutes)

    Making GSAA per 100 shots evens the playing field for goalies who see less shots vs those who see more.

    ie) Goalie A saves 1 goal above average per 100 shots and sees 1500 shots a year

    Goalie B save 1.5 goals above average per 100 shots and sees 500 shots a year

    Goalie A’s raw GSAA is 15, goalie B’s is 5.

    Raw GSAA will say A is better, but in actuality goalie B is better.

    That said,

    Montoya GSAA/100 shots 5v5 last 4 years:
    Player Season GSAA/100
    AL.MONTOYA 13/14 0.19
    AL.MONTOYA 14/15 -2.44
    AL.MONTOYA 15/16 0.50
    AL.MONTOYA 16/17 -0.13

    Yo-you. Up and down like panyhose.

    Montoya GSAA/100 All situations last 4 years:
    Player Season GSAA/100
    AL.MONTOYA 13/14 0.57
    AL.MONTOYA 14/15 -1.80
    AL.MONTOYA 15/16 0.54
    AL.MONTOYA 16/17 0.25

    Other than the dogshit year 14/15, he looks capable.

    Interesting that 16/17 flipped once you added non 5v5 shots. That’s a good thing.

  153. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Interesting that the info I intimated here Jan 2nd:“OBC doesn’t like Peter” ( https://lowetide.ca/2018/01/02/g40-2017-18-kings-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-702487)has slipped into the mainstream via old CBC producer John Shannon and old coach and GM Doug McLean.

    All of you who derided me for my post can line up to the left and apologize.

    Just apologize, no prostrating yourself, sack clothe, ashes, etc, no need for a scene.

    Any read on what kind of esteem Todd is held in? That might be what it comes down to, in terms of who’s out the door first.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Juat asked for sources. Didn’t deride you.

    #sorrynotsorry

    If you didn’t deride me then no need to apologize.

    Thank you for not apologizing.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Any read on what kind of esteem Todd is held in? That might be what it comes down to, in terms of who’s out the door first.

    Hit the link you quoted. Its right there.

  156. Jethro Tull says:

    LMHF#1:
    You know people are disturbingly jaded when the only options in their heads are the new guy or the old guy.

    Come on people…pull yourselves together.

    Doctor, I feel like a pair of curtains.

    Pull yourself together, man!

  157. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If you didn’t deride me then no need to apologize.

    Thank you for not apologizing.

    😉

  158. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Hit the link you quoted.Its right there.

    Yikes, I thought I was going to feel embarassed because I do remember reading that post, and thought I missed something.
    I was more speaking of current standing, post hire, if they’ve started having buyers remorse on him. If any the general dissappointment in General Disappointment extends to Todd as well for this year.

    Apologies for not being more clear about that.

  159. NBOilerFan says:

    Whenever I hear of a trade that doesn’t seem to make sense, my first thought is “was this trade made to add a piece to free up someone for a trade”. Could Broissant, or heaven forbid Talbot, be part of a potential bigger trade?

  160. Thinker says:

    OriginalPouzar: The extra year is what makes the trade make sense.The back-up position has been solidified for next year – as the fan base had been asking for.

    His last four years provided the following save percentages:

    .920
    .892
    .919
    .912

    Bad just as often as good or generally good?Option B looks right to me.

    Any reason your cutoff is 4 years? Maybe because the two seasons before that he was dog shit? .889 .893 .921 takes us back 7 seasons to the age of 25ish. I think my statement holds water. He has been shitty and good in equal proportions. Brossoit doesn’t have the track record due to not playing in many games, but I’m not exactly confident in Montoya, less so than I was in the Monster. People wanted Enroth, Neuvirth types. I think you vastly underestimate both his age and his injury. Career backups don’t have that much of a cushion to fall.

  161. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is awesome, thanks for posting it.

  162. AsiaOil says:

    Montoya is a proven NHL backup who fully accepts that role and does his job pretty well. Like any guy, he has his up and down years, but history suggests far more ups in his role. He’s a quality backup that would never sign in EDM because of the team’s horrible rep when it comes to goaltenders (largely created by the previous mgmt regime). He’s at the right price point and we don’t need to worry about the issue next summer. What do fans expect? Hasek on waivers for $1 million a year? Most fans are unrealistic. Niemi was a train wreck to start the year, but MTL is a goalie factory and is always looking for value. It isn’t a surprise he was claimed and rehabed (pun intended). Fans here would have lost their junk if he was claimed at the start of the year with those numbers and played over LB. Pikard/Subban are no better than LB and likely have backup upside down the line and so of no use. Montoya is pretty much exactly what we need this year and next. Too bad he got hurt and we had to wait to get him. LB is done though as a goalie who relies that much on technique (he one of the least dynamic NHL goalies I’ve ever seen) simply cannot be that bad on low/mid danger shots. Goalies should be non-issues for 18 months.

  163. jtblack says:

    NBOilerFan,

    You really think the Oilers would move Talbot?

    Come on …

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Yikes, I thought I was going to feel embarassed because I do remember reading that post, and thought I missed something.
    I was more speaking of current standing, post hire, if they’ve started having buyers remorse on him. If any the general dissappointment in General Disappointment extends to Todd as well for this year.

    Apologies for not being more clear about that.

    To be clear I don’t have a direct line to the OBC.

    That said there are many things said by many people (not all public, but mostly public) which you can use to suss out a reasonable scenario.

    The reasonable scenario is that the OBC sees this year mostly as a failure of roster construction and not coaching except the special teams.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is awesome, thanks for posting it.

    Love you too baby

  166. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    I found a quote from our gracious host rather interesting this morning

    “Caggiula-Draisaitl-Slepyshev got caved 9-22, 2-7 in HDSC’s. Lordy. Went 3-12 in five minutes against Getzlaf. Hoo doggy. There were several epic shifts involving chasing, Edmonton needs wingers like Mars needs women. People will rip Leon today, but he needs better wingers. Schnell.”

    So after months of back and forth on this blog of who is the better winger more deserving of a push both Caggs and Sleppy get a shot with Edmonton’s $8.5 million man and what comes out of it? The line gets absolutely caved and LT is saying we need new skilled wingers.

    Neither Cagguila nor Sleppy are young guys, both are a full year older than Leon, and both have been touted in either the MSM or in this space as men “who just need a shot with skilled players” to get things going.

    Well they got their shot and this morning nobody is saying #freesleppy and one poster has a hilariously accurate post up about Caggs game.

    Now one game is a small sample size and the damage caused by the Ducks top line was significant so I’d still give this trio a few more at bats in a few more contests.

    Neither the Stars nor the Hawks have barn burners on the 3rd and 4th lines and it takes more than one practice to get used to a new line mate. I think the skill sets of each player match well BUT there has to be a material improvement game to game.

    Once Maroon is back you can sit Cammalleri

    Of course some will say its more important to get Leon the best line-mates possible but I’d also argue that Leon is being paid to make the most out of his line-mates. Consider it a challenge to Drai to make the best of this because these two men do have skill and not a critique of his play or leadership.

    We need to see him drive and he’s now being given a youngerish set of skilled forwards (who we also need to find out about) to do it.

    Drive Leon Drive!

    Take it and run Caggs/Sleppy take it and run!

  167. jtblack says:

    AsiaOil,

    +1

    I also Believe PC was 4 months too late in acquiring a Veteran Back up.

    So far (2016 : 2017) he has struck out on a Quality Back up. Lets hope he got it right this time.

    Anaheim has Miller as backup. COL has Bernier. Our record to date woth Broissart is just one of many reasons the playoffs are a distant bell.

  168. Thinker says:

    AsiaOil:
    Montoya is a proven NHL backup who fully accepts that role and does his job pretty well. Like any guy, he has his up and down years, but history suggests far more ups in his role. He’s a quality backup that would never sign in EDM because of the team’s horrible rep when it comes to goaltenders (largely created by the previous mgmt regime). He’s at the right price point and we don’t need to worry about the issue next summer. What do fans expect? Hasek on waivers for $1 million a year? Most fans are unrealistic. Niemi was a train wreck to start the year, but MTL is a goalie factory and is always looking for value. It isn’t a surprise he was claimed and rehabed (pun intended). Fans here would have lost their junk if he was claimed at the start of the year with those numbers and played over LB. Pikard/Subban are no better than LB and likely have backup upside down the line and so of no use. Montoya is pretty much exactly what we need this year and next. Too bad he got hurt and we had to wait to get him. LB is done though as a goalie who relies that much on technique (he one of the least dynamic NHL goalies I’ve ever seen) simply cannot be that bad on low/mid danger shots. Goalies should be non-issues for 18 months.

    LB is 24. I’m willing to bet he still finds a career somewhere that can actually coach goalies.

  169. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: At the end of the day, getting Chia and Larsson here basically cost us Hall, 16th and 33rd overall in 2015 and 53rd overall in 2017.

    Thx.

    I wasn’t going to drink today…in fact…for the entire month of January.

    Find yer pants and get the hell out!

  170. Pouzar says:

    JD_Wry: You’ve missed my point, so I’ll try to be more clear.

    If Chia’s asset mgmt. of this 4th round pick for Monty is horrible, then MacT’s asset mgmt. of Doobie was _________.

    Fill in the blank for me.

    Doobie-ous?

  171. jtblack says:

    If our Top 6 featured McD, Drai, JP, Hall, Barzal, RNH : Would that be Good? 😄

    Hindsight is just that. But this puzzle could have came together many different ways …..

  172. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I would absolutely be interested in buying low on Duclair.

    How low would the acquisition cost be given there will likely be multiple teams interested?

    Conditional 4th… too soon?

  173. Pouzar says:

    Side: I hope Montoya plays great so it will silence one person in particular over the topic of LB….

    *HINT HINT*

    Still won’t change the numbers or the fact we gave up a draft pick for him.
    But up yours anyway.

  174. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99:
    We’re at $60M locked in next year, with a boat load of RFAs and Nurse who’s play may have taken him out of bridge deal territory.

    Even if the cap goes up to $80M (the players and their dislike of escrow has something to say yet), that doesn’t leave much for needed improvements.

    Trades have to be done. Sell Maroon and Letestu for picks, Figure out which RFAs you don’t want back and move them, and to make 2 quality additions (LW/RW and RD) we need to move a big salary, likely RNH, with a very slight chance Sekera waives his NMC.

    The McDavid core is the whole pie right now, we need to stop whining about rebuild era pieces moving out for things we need. Every organization has to do it at some point, and it hurts, but is necessary for us to reach our potential.

    Every team I follow a has a favorite player who has been traded, it’s part of sports now. I’ll cry like a baby when the Astros move Altuve, but it’s inevitable at some point.

    RNH won’t play his whole career here. We should prepare for it and be happy if by some chance it doesn’t happen.

    Of course the Astros aren’t moving Altuve for another decade, not when he’s just entering his prime.

  175. OilClog says:

    I just can’t see Gretzky thinking the coaching is fine other then the special teams

    Hasn’t Keith been working with Peter for years now?

    OBC may not like Peter, but what is Bobs Opinion in Peter? Doesn’t it all start and end through Bob’s desk?

    If a coach loses a room doesn’t matter who the GM is, coach lost the room.

  176. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:
    I’m going to keep banging on the Duclair drum.

    In the doghouse, 98 pdo, +3 CFrel, these are the guys worth taking flyers on.

    Agreed, especially if Maroon and Cammalleri are gone by the deadline.

  177. OilClog says:

    Giving up a draft pick for Montoya is pretty ridiculous.

  178. Surrey Oiler says:

    Pouzar: Still won’t change the numbers or the fact we gave up a draft pick for him.
    But up yours anyway.

    To get something, you’ve got to give up something. I don’t mind shelling out a 4th round pick who will back up to Talbot. Montoya has a proven record a nd we can’t risk an injury to Talbot. Next week we’ve got a back to back, and Montoya will play 1 of those, giving Talbot the rest.

  179. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OilClog,

    Well if TMac has lost the room (and is still having to coach fundamentals) maybe we could swap him for Gulutzan who appears to have lost not just his team but also his stick today.

    https://www.tsn.ca/must-see/video/must-see-gulutzan-rips-his-team-in-stick-tossing-tirade~1297384

  180. Dustylegnd says:

    anjinsan,

    Well said amigo, I just think that the fan base is so entirely, completely and totally disillusioned and discouraged, they can’t rid themselves of horrible negative thoughts like Lowe or MacT or Gretz or Gretz’s brother returning as either coaches or GM’s…..which of course makes 0 sense based on their horrible track record of managerial success…..fix the friking PK and maybe just maybe we avoid this horrible possibility

  181. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Of course the Astros aren’t moving Altuve for another decade, not when he’s just entering his prime.

    Speaking of opportunity.

  182. JimmyV1965 says:

    frjohnk: The argument of having MacT here instead of Chia would be better for us is not so batshit crazy.

    Go back to before the lottery win in 15.
    Stauffer suggested many times that if Hamilton was not going to sign with the Bruins, that Edmonton would definitely be in the running to go after him.With Chia in Edmonton, Boston did not want to deal with us, but if ( and of course its a big “if” in another universe) MacT or heck, another GM is the one dealing with the Bruins, we have a better chance of getting Hamilton instead of Reinhart.

    If the team gets Hamilton instead of Reinhart, you dont need to trade Hall for Larsson

    At the end of the day, getting Chia and Larsson here basically cost us Hall, 16th and 33rd overall in 2015 and 53rd overall in 2017.

    I like Larsson but those are significant assets out and when looking at our prospect group there is no calvary coming in the next few years that will have much of an impact.

    The roster we have today is pretty much the same for next year ( minus Maroon)

    Currently we are in 26th spot and while most would agree we are better than that, we have to realize we have seen almost 23% of Connor McDavids career as an Oiler ( if he chooses to hit UFA at the end of this contract) and we still have significant roster issues.

    I was a huge Chia fan when hired as I had enough of MacT and defended Chia here in quite a few deals, but looking at his track record not anymoreId be fine with Chia getting punted now

    I dont think MacT was the answer, but its possible having him here instead of Chia, we would be a better spot.

    Tmac would be an absolute disaster. I’m not exactly a chia fan, but the reason he traded Hall is the roster handed down to him. We had virtually no dmen and nothing in the system. He way over paid to get Larsson and that’s why I don’t like his track record. But he looks like a genius compared to MacT, who couldn’t even see how bad the defence was.

    To build a Stanley Cup team who have to draft and develop. Period. And to say MacT failed at that is a gross understatement. Our prospect cupboard is a disaster. There’s not one frickin prospect from the MacT era. Not one. Sure, many of our first rounders are already playing. But we consistently drafted at the top of the second round and there is not a single legit prospect to show for it. If he wad throwing darts at the draft list his record world have been better.

  183. krakman says:

    JimmyV1965,

    So Chiarelli giving away first and second round picks for nothing is better?

  184. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Thinker,

    I’m not exactly confident in Montoya, less so than I was in the Monster

    I agree on the age thing, but Montoya is in a different hemisphere than Monster.

    Also,

    You use the last 4 years because the recent results are more predictive of future results than the older results.

    I’ll try to dig up a link, but that’s why all of the muti-variant catch all metrics like WAR, GAR etc weight “last season” the strongest, 2nd last season less, season before that even less, etc. where year 4 previous has weight, but not much.

    That said, back to Montoya vs Monster:

    GSAA/100 shots All situations ranking over the last 4 years: (minimum 900 minutes played)

    16/17
    Montoya 25/57
    Monster – Did not qualify (329 minutes played) had a GSAA/100 of -3.69 which would have ranked him behind the 57th goalie who had -2.37

    15/16
    Montoya 17/61
    Monster 55/61

    14/15
    Montoya 49/55
    Monster – Did not qualify (351 minutes played) had a GSAA/100 of -0.20 which would have ranked him 34th on the list off goalies over 900 minutes

    13/14
    Montoya 14/64
    Monster 49/64

    So when you say “I’m not exactly confident in Montoya, less so than I was in the Monster” I’m happy to report that the data says you should be much more confident in Montoya.

  185. Scungilli Slushy says:

    russ99: a very slight chance Sekera waives his NMC

    I would ask Russell. 4M for 3rd pair 5v5 TOI wasn’t likely the idea there. Sekera is a top end 2nd pair at least unless the surgery hampers him. And Sekera is a good puck mover.

  186. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: GSAA/100

    Why GSAA/100?

  187. JimmyV1965 says:

    krakman:
    JimmyV1965,

    So Chiarelli giving away first and second round picks for nothing is better?

    You can’t be serious. The only legit prospects we have in the system are from his first draft. I don’t like Chia’s negotiating skills at all. But MacT could have given the picks away for all the good they did. It’s incomprehensible how poor our draft and develop record was under the OBC. It makes our penalty kill look good. I’m not defending Chia, but you don’t build winners with free agents and trades. You build them through the draft. And MacT was an epic fail.

  188. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OilClog,

    I just can’t see Gretzky thinking the coaching is fine other then the special teams

    Ok.

    Hasn’t Keith been working with Peter for years now?

    Yes. Peter was the impetus to bring Keith to Edmonton as well.

    OBC may not like Peter, but what is Bobs Opinion in Peter? Doesn’t it all start and end through Bob’s desk?

    Nicholson is CEO and Vice Chair of OEG
    Gretzky is Partner and Vice Chair of OEG
    Lowe is a Vice Chair of the OEG.

    I’d think that neither really “answers” to the other.

    Gretzky has been travelling with the team often and in Edmonton often. Nicholson has not done either nearly as often so I’d guess Gretzky is closer to “hockey ops” than Bob lately.

    I think RiversQ summed it up best on twitter yesterday:

    Anyway, the point is none of them (OBC) really have any power over hockey ops strictly speaking and yet they can unquestionably influence Katz so it doesn’t matter.

    Lastly,

    If a coach loses a room doesn’t matter who the GM is, coach lost the room.

    I think 99.5% of “the coach has lost the room” is just made up things to explain below average results and think that in the case of McLellan/Oilers its 99.9% made up.

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker: Any reason your cutoff is 4 years? Maybe because the two seasons before that he was dog shit? .889 .893 .921 takes us back 7 seasons to the age of 25ish. I think my statement holds water. He has been shitty and good in equal proportions. Brossoit doesn’t have the track record due to not playing in many games, but I’m not exactly confident in Montoya, less so than I was in the Monster. People wanted Enroth, Neuvirth types. I think you vastly underestimate both his age and his injury. Career backups don’t have that much of a cushion to fall.

    Yup, I used four years because the prior poster that I was conversing with was using four years so I just ran with it.

    I prefer to use just the last year to tell you the truth.

    Frankly, what a goalie did 5-7 years ago really doesn’t mean much in what they might do next year – we are talking goalies here who can have large swings in their play from year to year.

    Sure, I’ll agree with you “some good and some bad”, however, it looks to me like more good than bad over the most recent years which I put more stock in than 5-7 years ago, in particular with goalies.

  190. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: https://lowetide.ca/2018/01/05/run-to-daylight/comment-page-1/#comment-704043

    Thx…you using corsica? How do you get per 100 shots data?

  191. Pouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I would ask Russell. 4M for 3rd pair 5v5 TOI wasn’t likely the idea there. Sekera is a top end 2nd pair at least unless the surgery hampers him. And Sekera is a good puck mover.

    Jason Gregor @JasonGregor
    4m4 minutes ago
    Kris Russell had a great first half https://oilersnation.com/2018/01/05/kris-russell-had-a-great-first-half-for-edmonton-oilers/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter … #Oilers #NHL

  192. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: https://lowetide.ca/2018/01/05/run-to-daylight/comment-page-1/#comment-704043

    Thx for the work. I hate it waaaay less with your GSAA/100 numbers but I am still loath to give up a draft pick.

  193. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Thx…you using corsica? How do you get per 100 shots data?

    It has the shot data, just divide the GSAA by the number of shots then multiply by 100 so its a digestible number.

  194. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Thx for the work. I hate it waaaay less with your GSAA/100 numbers but I am still loath to give up a draft pick.

    Yeah, Montoya was on my list when Peter signed Wacky Arm Flailing Goalie Man who was statistically the worst UFA goalie available.

    LT’s been calling for an Actual NHL back up since Talbot got here.

    Good times.

  195. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It has the shot data, just divide the GSAA by the number of shots then multiply by 100 so its a digestible number.

    That’s some Mathy stuff!!!!!!!

  196. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Now…how do we mine the data to find a couple bottom 6 PKers who are also capable of playing a shift 5 on 5?

  197. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think the answer to this question is related to where Borssoit fits in. I wonder if they don’t qualify LB and let him go in free agency.I don’t suspect they will let the asset go just like that after years of investment but, perhaps.

    I suspect it’s Pasquale that will walk. Brossoit and Ellis to platoon to start, let the cream rise to the top.

  198. JimmyV1965 says:

    This Oesterle hand wringing is eerily reminiscent of the comments about Marincin a couple years ago. They’re both fringe NHLers and will play less than 100 games in the bigs.

  199. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: They’re both fringe NHLers and will play less than 100 games in the bigs.

    If you say so Jimmy.

    This place is becoming more like HFBoards by the day.

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