Trust

by Lowetide

They don’t show it much anymore on television, but one of the great TV movies of all time is called DUEL. It stars Dennis Weaver and a Peterbilt transport truck, which is the scariest vehicle I have ever seen. I’ve honestly never been able to look at prime movers the same way again, even if they are some of the most reliable transport vehicles out there. The truck (and a driver, who we never see) scare the daylights out of poor Dennis Weaver all over the most remote blacktop on planet earth. It was the first film directed by Steven Spielberg, and to this day, I can remember the feeling of excitement and dread during the first viewing. Lordy what a movie.

In the film, Dennis Weaver drove a Valiant. Not a confident vehicle. Valiant’s need a little help. That’s why they called it a Valiant for crying out loud. If you are brave enough, here is the trailer from the movie, one in which you’ll see that poor Valiant and one crazy ass frightened Dennis Weaver.

My Dad loved the Valiant. We had at least two of them during my childhood. It was not the kind of car people bragged about, but it got good gas mileage (Dad drove about three MPH slower than the limit, said you got better mileage that way) and it was functional. I could have told you when I was 12 there wasn’t a chance in hell I would ever own one, but when my Dad finally moved off the Valiant, he charged right into the Fury. Argh. Trust is a thing.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

THE COACH AND YOUNG PLAYERS

Back in the fall of 2007, Craig MacTavish gave his opinions on the young forwards who were pushing up from the AHL, college and junior hockey.

  • Craig MacTavish on an opening for a young forward like Cogliano, Nilsson, Schremp: “We’re still going to be preaching responsibility. It’s all a game of what you create minus what you give up. If you’re creating a lot you’re going to get more latitude to try and create offense, but if you’re not productive then the balance is out of whack. We want to win hockey games. We need one of those guys to develop.”

Cogliano, Nilsson and Sam Gagner all made the big club and MacT did his best to instruct a fairly wayward crew. Schremp never did make it, Nilsson was bound for Europe and the other two embarked on NHL careers that now count 741 (Gagner) and 830 (Cogliano) NHL games.

The words of MacTavish above are interesting as they pertain to Todd McLellan (another respected, veteran coach) and his handling of Jesse Puljujarvi. I would wager JP is superior without the puck to a player like Sam Gagner and the rest of this group. There’s still a rapport that has to be built, a relationship established, some shared success from running up that hill.

  • MacT on what he wants from the kids: “It’s got to be a clear and concise plan that you set forth for these players, and all you want to see is progress. As long as you’re seeing progress, then you’ve got an ally in me and the coaching staff. If you’re diligent and have a work ethic, then you’re going to have an ally.”

I think Puljujarvi has been that player, he’s a game rooster and TMac has talked about fewer language barriers this season (a good sign). My view of him is that he works like a bugger, that he is prone to loss of confidence and that he’s (like everyone else) miles better when playing with Connor McDavid.

THE COACH AND YOUNG PLAYERS

  • Todd McLellan on Jesse Puljujarvi earning power-play time, December 17: “He’s steadily improved since he’s got here. He’s been able to take increments of his game up on a steady basis. We think he’s ready to go there. He’s earned the opportunity. What we’ve watched with him is making sure that he hasn’t given up anything in his game as he takes more on. He’s done a very good job of that.” Source

That’s a positive quote and marries well with the MacT verbal above. JP is a talented man who is young and lacks experience, but there are good arrows. Did JP get power-play chances in the games after December 17?

  • On the night of December 18, JP got 40 seconds of power-play time (team leader had 3:16) and the big Finn played well on the McDavid line (no goals, lots of chances).
  • December 21, he got punted from the McDavid line (Puljujarvi was struggling) and had 1:58 on the man advantage.
  • December 23, no power-play time, back on the 97 line, the trio is not good but McDavid wins the day.
  • December 27, JP has a goal, seven shots, gets 54 power-play seconds. The 97 line is dominant but lose to Winnipeg.
  • December 29, Puljujarvi has a goal and an assist, 1:54 on the power play, 10 shot attempts.
  • December 31 was the poor game against the Jets, JP got 1:40 on the power play and less than five minutes on the McDavid line.
  • January 2, Oilers lost 5-0, Maroon moved up to the 97-98 line (replacing Milan Lucic) and Puljujarvi had four HDSC’s, 8 shot attempts and 3:31 on the power play. Early January, he’s getting 5×5 time with McDavid and some big minutes with the 5×4. Those 5-0 losses may have hurt his feature time with 97 but he played well in this game.
  • January 4 it’s McDavid as his center, 13:39 and 2:21 on the power play for JP, Oilers win and the line looks good. I noted Puljujarvi was a bull in a china shop (Lucic was back on the big line).
  • January 6 more time on the 97 line, McDavid the best player and Puljujarvi second best by my eye. 15:42 at evens, 1:11 on the power play.
  • January 7, 12:29, no power-play time, he’s on the Nuge line and the sparks are gone.

JESSE PULJUJARVI 2016-17

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.45 (7th among all forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.66 (one goal in 22 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 53.2
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 2.1
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 32.8
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: -7.5 (30 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 41 shots/2.4%
  • Boxcars: 28gp, 1-7-8
  • (All numbers via Puck IQ, Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and hockey-reference)

JESSE PULJUJARVI 2017-18

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.42 (8th among all forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.96 (one goal in 20 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 53.49
  • Corsi Rel 5×5 %: 3.15
  • DFF Elite 5×5 %: 50.2
  • DFF Elite Rel 5×5 %: — (26 percent of TOI v. elites)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 74 shots/10.8%
  • Boxcars: 29gp, 8-3-11
  • (All numbers via Puck IQ and NaturalStatTrick)

G and WG kindly passed along some information from the Puck IQ numbers this year, our man JP is doing well via DFF this season. His offense is about where it was last season and of course his numbers with McDavid (JP is 5-2-7 in 203 minutes with McDavid, 2.07 5×5 points per 60) shine. Without McDavid, he is 2-0-2 in 178 minutes, 0.67 5×5 points per 60. By the way, Leon Draisaitl is 2.23/60 at 5×5 with McDavid, telling us JP is in the range.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

In 200 minutes together, Jesse Puljujarvi is scoring well enough with Connor McDavid to warrant more playing time. It would allow the club to run Leon Draisaitl on another scoring line. Coach Todd McLellan moved Leon to 97’s wing when things we on a downbeat and we should expect that duo to hang together until the next losing streak. I think it would be better to run Puljujarvi with Draisaitl, and I also think Todd McLellan would have liked the Valiant.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A fun morning, scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Where to slot Nurse, can Peter Chiarelli salvage his job, Jesse Puljujarvi and where he slots.
  • Corey Pronman, The Athletic. Kailer Yamamoto’s season and the 2018 draft.
  • Pete Jensen, NHL.com’s main fantasy writer. Fantasy tips, send your questions!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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Pouzar

Pescador: I feel shame, how will I face Pouzar now?

You are dead to me.

OriginalPouzar

Skinner stops 24 of 26 in a 3-2 win.

He’s having a great start with Swift Current.

GMB3

Thinker:
Was just perusing past drafts, and noticed that the NYI blew a top 5 pick 3 times since 2011. That should be a firing offence for Snow.

Not when you have Peter Chiarelli to cover your sins

Sighduck

Lowetide: The list will be final final I imagine, teams change out scouts after a draft year is in the books. I don’t expect a complete overhaul, so the amateur scouts may not change at all. This is still a relatively new staff, suspect PC and TMac (plus the rest) get another year.

One wonders what a year of patience with Krueger or Nelson at the helm might have yielded…

Wilde

Lowetide: The list will be final final I imagine, teams change out scouts after a draft year is in the books. I don’t expect a complete overhaul, so the amateur scouts may not change at all. This is still a relatively new staff, suspect PC and TMac (plus the rest) get another year.

I was of a similar mind until the synchronised pitchfork sharpening by several media members, thinking then that it would be PC gone and Todd would stay. Unless they managed to fall into the Buffalo-Arizona gaggle under his coaching.

It’s quieter out there now, but the feeling remains.

Wilde

€v¥£€us:
Jesse the outdoor rink shinny legend!

For those who did hear, Jesse dropped by a neighbourhood outdoor rink unannounced to play shinny with some kids the other day.

While most of the team flew away to a beach or warmer places, Jesse stayed in E-town and gave a handful of kids an amazing memory for the rest of their lives.

I love this kid!

Everything about JP brings welcome warmth to my cold, lifeless Oilers heart.

€√¥£€^$

Sighduck,

Welcome Sighduck!

Post more!

Tell us about your experiences living abroad please!

€√¥£€^$

Jesse the outdoor rink shinny legend!

For those who did hear, Jesse dropped by a neighbourhood outdoor rink unannounced to play shinny with some kids the other day.

While most of the team flew away to a beach or warmer places, Jesse stayed in E-town and gave a handful of kids an amazing memory for the rest of their lives.

I love this kid!

Wilde

Lowetide,

LT I’ve been meaning to ask you and the others here this:

If it comes to pass that PC is not the Oilers GM on draft day, do you think that that Edmonton’s draft changes? Or will the skeleton of the player personnel staff still be in place, along with the amateur scouts?

Maybe the ‘statement’ move of the new GM ends up being a draft day trade, up or down?

Sighduck

Lowetide,

Thanks, A bit tough to keep up with the time difference (Canadian but living in New Zealand) but I always make sure I read everything.

Obviously a hugely disappointing season when you think about what was achieved last season. Has been really strange how the team has been able to hang 8-10 points back of the pack for what seems like 2 months!

As was usual during the DoD there will come a point in this season where hoping for the flames missing the playoffs will become as important as the rest of the Oil season (Edmonton born and bred)

Wilde

LMHF#1: Not the thing to do in a cap league.

Take your shot now.

And it has nothing to do with the fans and media – it’s the smart choice.

It’s exactly the thing to do in a cap league. If they deal Neal and Perron, they be so flush with talent, that they’ll have multiple chances later on.

What if they load up and get Halak’d?

Multiple shots at the cup will always beat one quality one. The odds are always against you winning the cup.

LMHF#1

Wilde: This would be highly unpopular for at least 2 years, but I’d still dump every single UFA on that team.

The fans and media would destroy McPhee, but their entire org would be stacked in talent from last year, this year and next year’s insane overage in draft picks.

Not the thing to do in a cap league.

Take your shot now.

And it has nothing to do with the fans and media – it’s the smart choice.

Wilde

Scungilli Slushy:
The cap will catch Vegas too at some point. It’s an efficiency contest as speeds says, for GMs. So far not so good for PC.

Russell
Lucic
Kassian
Soon Strome
Drai

Vegas would have to leap face-first into pants-on-head retardation for like, 8 negotiations in a row before they’re in cap trouble.

Let’s see if they can do it in less than 3 summers, for the new record.

Melvis

Woodguy v2.0: I can’t distinguish between love and hate.

They are the same emotion to me.

What becomes of the broken hearted?…sung in that Jimmy Ruffin style.

Wilde

LMHF#1:
Surprised this hasn’t been discussed – Vegas should go for it all this year. Between the cap and the picks and everything – load up and take your chances. You never know when it would be available again.

This would be highly unpopular for at least 2 years, but I’d still dump every single UFA on that team.

The fans and media would destroy McPhee, but their entire org would be stacked in talent from last year, this year and next year’s insane overage in draft picks.

OmJo

Scungilli Slushy:
The cap will catch Vegas too at some point. It’s an efficiency contest as speeds says, for GMs. So far not so good for PC.

Russell
Lucic
Kassian
Soon Strome
Drai

The NHL should do away with the cap.

JimmyV1965

Scungilli Slushy: So 8 in 13 games , what is that? 4M. Too much for Oilers I think at his age and CMD zoom in goals.

I actually meant for whatever team he’s in the playoffs with this year.

Scungilli Slushy

The cap will catch Vegas too at some point. It’s an efficiency contest as speeds says, for GMs. So far not so good for PC.

Russell
Lucic
Kassian
Soon Strome
Drai

Scungilli Slushy

Sighduck:
Long time (really really long time) lurker, first time poster.

I was under the impression that Vegas has some form of special lottery protection to the tune of 3rd best odds in the entry draft for the first 3 seasons. If true, what in the hell happens if Vegas makes a deep playoff run? Could they win the Stanley cup and win the draft lottery?!?!?

I thought one year

Scungilli Slushy

godot10: The “mini-hell” the Leafs are going through is 3rd place in their division and 10 points ahead of 4th.

The cap will catch up to them soon enough. Starting next year IIRC.

godot10

YKOil:
Crazy moment…

Draisaitl and Klefbom
FOR
Pacioretty, Gallagher and Mete

flavour with picks/cash/down-the-list prospects as needed.

Montreal gets their center and we get wingers.

A certifiably crazy moment.

YKOil

Crazy moment…

Draisaitl and Klefbom
FOR
Pacioretty, Gallagher and Mete

flavour with picks/cash/down-the-list prospects as needed.

Montreal gets their center and we get wingers.

OmJo

LMHF#1:
Surprised this hasn’t been discussed – Vegas should go for it all this year. Between the cap and the picks and everything – load up and take your chances. You never know when it would be available again.

Agreed.

I think a Lucic and a Russell could take them over the top in the playoffs.

But they would need both of them. One isn’t enough. Fortunately we have both. What a coincidence?

Dominoiler

If strome is your team’s 1RW, then you cheer for a team in the draft lottery, lordy..

godot10

hunter1909: Leafs are going through their own mini hell right now, and they’re having a hard time of it!

The “mini-hell” the Leafs are going through is 3rd place in their division and 10 points ahead of 4th.

LMHF#1

Surprised this hasn’t been discussed – Vegas should go for it all this year. Between the cap and the picks and everything – load up and take your chances. You never know when it would be available again.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Professor Q: Nurse made it one year, though he, Hall, and McDavid had been snubbed a few times. There have been others as well, I’m sure (not including Danny Syvret?).

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/world-juniors-hamilton-s-darnell-nurse-named-player-of-gold-medal-game-1.2890931

What makes my previous comment even worse was that I watched every minute of that tournament.
I feel shame, how will I face Pouzar now?

OriginalPouzar

Check that – Kailer now with a goal and an assist in the 1st.

OriginalPouzar

Yamamoto with a 1st period goal.

Seems like he’s starting to heat up offensively.

Foege Foegele Torpe

OriginalPouzar: Darnell Nurse starred in that tournament as an Oiler draft pick.

Dammit
Just twice then,
?

OriginalPouzar

Pescador:
Scungilli Slushy,

For once it would be nice to watch an Oiler drafted D-man play for team Canada at the WJHC.

Darnell Nurse starred in that tournament as an Oiler draft pick.

OriginalPouzar

Scungilli Slushy: So 8 in 13 games , what is that? 4M. Too much for Oilers I think at his age and CMD zoom in goals.

He also had 11 in 16 and 7 in 13 with the Ducks.

He’s proven to be able to score in the playoffs.

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar:
Hebig with an early assist!

Hebig now with two assists.

Professor Q

Pescador:
Scungilli Slushy,

I like Bouchard too, he leads all OHL d-men in points (50 -39gp) actually he’s tied with Ryan Merkley, another draft eligible.
For once it would be nice to watch an Oiler drafted D-man play for team Canada at the WJHC. RIght toboot.I’m assuming he makes it oc.
I don’t give a fuck that it takes a couple of years for defencemen. Same goes for forwards, how else do you propose the Oilers acquire such a player?
Trade?By Chiarelli?
No, no no no

Nurse made it one year, though he, Hall, and McDavid had been snubbed a few times. There have been others as well, I’m sure (not including Danny Syvret?).

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/world-juniors-hamilton-s-darnell-nurse-named-player-of-gold-medal-game-1.2890931

OmJo

Sighduck:
Long time (really really long time) lurker, first time poster.

I was under the impression that Vegas has some form of special lottery protection to the tune of 3rd best odds in the entry draft for the first 3 seasons. If true, what in the hell happens if Vegas makes a deep playoff run? Could they win the Stanley cup and win the draft lottery?!?!?

Welcome to Bettman’s NHL

Foege Foegele Torpe

Scungilli Slushy,

I like Bouchard too, he leads all OHL d-men in points (50 -39gp) actually he’s tied with Ryan Merkley, another draft eligible.
For once it would be nice to watch an Oiler drafted D-man play for team Canada at the WJHC. RIght toboot. I’m assuming he makes it oc.
I don’t give a fuck that it takes a couple of years for defencemen. Same goes for forwards, how else do you propose the Oilers acquire such a player?
Trade?
By Chiarelli?
No, no no no

Wilde

I’d blow it up if I were the Habs. Would you blow it up? I’d uncontrollably demolitionize that team if I was managing them. What a disaster.

Wilde

I’m perusing this year’s crop of USDP players, looking at Wahlstrom and others, and Jack Hughes’ numbers are astronomical.

(Wahlstrom by the way, has 33G in 52GP, .635GPG, in range with Keller .597, Tkachuk .667, Eichel .717.)

Anyways, Jack Hughes is 17 and has 10p in 6gp, which is the point pace of a high end Keller or Kane 18yo season.

He could break Auston Matthews PPG record next year, while being a May birthday. Matthews was a September, only a few days from the cutoff.

Pray the Canucks don’t win the lottery next year.

Sighduck

Long time (really really long time) lurker, first time poster.

I was under the impression that Vegas has some form of special lottery protection to the tune of 3rd best odds in the entry draft for the first 3 seasons. If true, what in the hell happens if Vegas makes a deep playoff run? Could they win the Stanley cup and win the draft lottery?!?!?

hunter1909

Professor Q:
If I see one more article about Babcock, Matthews, Leafs, and proper utilization and ice time I’m going to flip.

*returns to Lowetide to continue the never ending conversation about McLellan, McDavid, Oilers, and proper utilization and ice time*

Hey, what can I say. Familiarity is home.

Leafs are going through their own mini hell right now, and they’re having a hard time of it!

Professor Q

If I see one more article about Babcock, Matthews, Leafs, and proper utilization and ice time I’m going to flip.

*returns to Lowetide to continue the never ending conversation about McLellan, McDavid, Oilers, and proper utilization and ice time*

Hey, what can I say. Familiarity is home.

hunter1909

JimmyV1965: What Maroon gets in free agency will be directly related to his playoff game performance.

Great news! So the Oilers can keep him!

Scungilli Slushy

hunter1909: Strange and frightening just how easily Chiarelli fits into country mode.

Mashup – track suit and Stetson.

Scungilli Slushy

JimmyV1965: What Maroon gets in free agency will be directly related to his playoff game performance.

So 8 in 13 games , what is that? 4M. Too much for Oilers I think at his age and CMD zoom in goals.

Scungilli Slushy

Pescador: Are you suggesting Bouchard is possibly a wasted pick?
Or more of a sure thing?

More of a sure thing, has the same skill set but is 6’2” or close. There are many smaller players in the league now but it is a disadvantage especially for D. The Ducks moved Vatanen for example. Being that short as opposed to light weight is the problem, no reach.

Scungilli Slushy

hunter1909: I’d miss those Maroon cellies. Maroon provides what Laraque used to do before he discovered higher living. He’s worth a 5 year, X3 million offer, 1 year limited nmc lol

Yup

JimmyV1965

hunter1909: Strange and frightening just how easily Chiarelli fits into country mode.

If we play it backwards do we get all those players back?