People are Strange

by Lowetide

One of the strangest things about this season is the ongoing debate about Leon Draisaitl. Seems the new contract has expectations high as a kite, and Draisaitl’s numbers (they are good) simply don’t rhyme. This brings us to the question: Are people crazy?

THE ATHETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

Pronman’s list and verbal never disappoints and this year’s mid-season ranking is no exception. His reasoning is sound, his knowledge is excellent and his writing descriptive.

DRAISAITL YEAR OVER YEAR

I keep reading about Leon Draisaitl’s disappointing season but the 5×5 offense shines like a diamond. Leon’s in some lesser shooting luck but even with that malady is delivering a handsome 2.36/60 5×5 performance. He’s also playing away from Connor McDavid about 50 percent of the time this season (he spent about 25 percent of his season without 97 in 2016-17).

Why are people down on Leon? I have $8.5 million reasons why, but that’s not fair to Leon. It’s the old Shawn Horcoff conversation all over again. People enter into an agreement in good faith, that’s the deal. We can discuss Leon as a trade asset if you wish but it’s important to acknowledge his progress at 5×5 this season. The power play is also off but that’s across the entirety of the team.  All numbers today via NaturalStatTrick.

ENOUGH?

One of the questions Oilers management needs to find an answer to surrounds the top two lines. Do they have six legit forwards for deployment? If so, Edmonton would be searching for just one player (to replace Patrick Maroon) over the summer. Obviously need to address the third and fourth lines but there are seven men (Khaira included) who are 1.80/60 or  better at 5×5. Folly to expect Khaira to post these numbers again (you’d need three years of 1.88/60 5×5 to consider him established) but how many more are needed?

What about blue? One righty who can help on the power play and hold his own on the second pairing 5×5? Plus penalty killers on the depth lines. Is that it? Sniper LW, second-pairing RHD nd two penalty-killing forwards?

JAGR

If this is it, thank you Jaromir Jagr. I remember when he emerged as an NHL player, he was so skilled and had so much hair it was impossible to ignore him. He was pure power and splendid, so impressive he could not be overlooked even on a famous team. I have thoroughly enjoyed the NHL career of Jaromir Jagr and can tell you we will be saying goodbye to one of the very best who ever played the game. A giant walked among us, with child-like innocence married to an attitude in the same general range as Mariah Carey. I am going to miss you so much, Jaromir Jagr.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy fun show, heading out of the All-Star break and into the official second half and Super Bowl week. Scheduled to appear, TSN1260 beginning at 10:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. The conversation with Peter Chiarelli and big stories coming out of the All-Star break.
  • John Horn, Around the Horn. Roger Federer, man. Man.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Super Bowl, what can the Oilers get from the second half?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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godot10

jake70: Signed (MacTavish) his 7yrx6M deal prior to 13-14 season. Just came off a 40 game lockout season with 4 goals and 20 assists for 24 points in those 40 games.

That contract kicked in 2014-15 season. The salary cap that year was 64M.

Those lockout season stats suggest he should have been bridged no?Buta year before Tambellini gave Ebsand Hall their 6M per deals so to complete the trifecta….

Tough call, glad I am not making GM decisions.

Those lockout number were produced by a player with only one and a half arms. He had shoulder labrum surgery after the season.

Bank Shot

Wilde: Yeah but that’s what I’m saying, he’s in range with non-florida 6m deals for forwards.

Zetterberg: 0.667
Hall: 1.11
Eberle: 0.780
Saad: 0.469
Backes: 0.633
Duchene: 0.531
Pavelski: 0.708
Staal: 0.612

and on and on and on, anyways Nuge is right there at 0.674.

It’s not a steal, but it’s certainly far down the list of problem contracts on this team.

I’d say he’s 3rd behind Lucic and Russell in terms of being a problem contract. You could argue Draisaitl or Sekera instead.

I wouldn’t say anyone else is a contract problem.

There are 58 forwards on contracts ranging from 5 to 7 million.

RNH is 29th in production this season out of that group.

14 of the guys outproducing him are 25 or younger. 5 of the guys scoring less are 25 or younger.

It’s gone from being a terrible contract, to being a mediocre contract so that’s progress I guess. It certainly won’t cover the bet as a whole.

Wilde

hunter1909: Nice work, but like I stated, I used 3 million as a talking point only. But RNH hasn’t been worth 6 million either, which is the point am making.

Yeah but that’s what I’m saying, he’s in range with non-florida 6m deals for forwards.

Zetterberg: 0.667
Hall: 1.11
Eberle: 0.780
Saad: 0.469
Backes: 0.633
Duchene: 0.531
Pavelski: 0.708
Staal: 0.612

and on and on and on, anyways Nuge is right there at 0.674.

It’s not a steal, but it’s certainly far down the list of problem contracts on this team.

Wilde

OriginalPouzar: Yes, I have a membership to The Athletic and will read Dellow’s article a little later today (and likely have already perused it).

You are right, I’ve probably over-stated the position re: d-men always being a few years away.Of course there are exceptions which, in my mind are generally limited to the top end studs (Hedman, Ekblad, etc.). Your list does open my eyes a bit, thank you for that.

At the same time, except for a couple, most needed another year post-draft before they are NHL ready and I would argue the Hanafin hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.

I just look at the size (and in certain cases, the league) of the top 10 d-men and I worry about rushing them and bust potential.With that said, there is very high end, in particular high end offensive talent, in the top 10 and I can’t say I wouldn’t be super excited for a Hughes or even a Borquist.

I don’t think we could count on any of them being in our lineup next year, in particular as 1 or 2RD whereas there is more of a chance that one of the top 3 forwards (if we win the 2nd or 3rd lottery) could immediately fill a top 6 role for the Oilers (must earn it though).

Yeah, but since the draft is gonna go something like this(based on what we know right now):

Dahlin
Svech/Zadina/Tkachuk
Svech/Zadina/Tkachuk
Svech/Zadina/Tkachuk

And then the defensemen and Wahlstrom.

Which is why the question isn’t Winger vs Defensemen for me you take the forward because you’re top 4 and it’s BPA, it’s “if we’re outside the top four and rule out Wahlstrom who do we go for?’

Personally the only guy I’d bet on being in the NHL next season is Bouchard, just because OHL into NHL is the most common for 18 year olds, among the leagues these guys are from. Of course, if I’m the GM/Coach I don’t rule out anyone taking a spot for 9 games on merit.

jake70

hunter1909: Nice work, but like I stated, I used 3 million as a talking point only. But RNH hasn’t been worth 6 million either, which is the point am making.

Signed (MacTavish) his 7yrx6M deal prior to 13-14 season. Just came off a 40 game lockout season with 4 goals and 20 assists for 24 points in those 40 games.

That contract kicked in 2014-15 season. The salary cap that year was 64M.

Those lockout season stats suggest he should have been bridged no? But a year before Tambellini gave Ebs and Hall their 6M per deals so to complete the trifecta….

Tough call, glad I am not making GM decisions.

ArmchairGM

Wilde:
OriginalPouzar,

Morning OP.

Who do you want the Oilers to draft out of the defensemen this year?

I go like this:

Boqvist
Hughes
Wilde
Bouchard
Dobson

I would rank them thus:

Boqvist
Hughes
Bouchard
Dobson
Wilde

I will admit that Hughes is probably more NHL-ready than Boqvist – and therefore more likely to be in the NHL next season – but I think that Boqvist is the more dynamic player and has a higher ceiling. Drafting is a long-term-outlook game, so that’s why I would put Boqvist at the top of this group. It’s an interesting conundrum, though, as all of these young men project to be very good NHL players who will likely all have long careers. You really can’t go wrong on any of them, IMO, but if you’re sitting there with the 6th pick and all these men are still on the board, you’d be making a mistake to take Wilde in that spot.

OriginalPouzar

Wilde: The scenario where the Oilers draft a defenseman is if all those forwards are already off the board, so that’s logically ruled out because all of those guys are going to go before the non-Dahlin defensemen. The question is basically ‘who do you draft if the Oilers are outside of the top 5, non Wahlstrom edition’.

Also I’d like to touch on the ‘few years away’ theory for defensemen, if you have an Athletic subscription I’d highly recommend Tyler Dellows article on top four defensemen’s arrival time:

https://theathletic.com/212763/2018/01/18/dellow-when-do-defencemen-make-it/

I understand the sentiment of not rushing guys, but you can find out awfully fast what you probably have in the modern NHL, looking at dmen drafted early in the last few years:

Ekblad: straight to the NHL, top pairing
Hanifin: straight to the NHL, 3rd pairing
Provorov: 1 year junior, then top pairing NHL (stud #1D imo)
Werenski: 1 year big ten(same team as Hughes) then top pairing NHL(stud top pairing guy)
Chabot: 1 year junior, dozen games AHL then NHL top 4
Sergachev: 1 year junior, then NHL top pairing
McAvoy: 1 year BU, then NHL top pairing
Chychrun: straight to the NHL
Girard: 1 year junior, NHL(same size as Hughes)

As for 2017, you can quote me that Heiskanen and Makar will be everyday NHLers next year barring injury.

Yes, I have a membership to The Athletic and will read Dellow’s article a little later today (and likely have already perused it).

You are right, I’ve probably over-stated the position re: d-men always being a few years away. Of course there are exceptions which, in my mind are generally limited to the top end studs (Hedman, Ekblad, etc.). Your list does open my eyes a bit, thank you for that.

At the same time, except for a couple, most needed another year post-draft before they are NHL ready and I would argue the Hanafin hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.

I just look at the size (and in certain cases, the league) of the top 10 d-men and I worry about rushing them and bust potential. With that said, there is very high end, in particular high end offensive talent, in the top 10 and I can’t say I wouldn’t be super excited for a Hughes or even a Borquist.

I don’t think we could count on any of them being in our lineup next year, in particular as 1 or 2RD whereas there is more of a chance that one of the top 3 forwards (if we win the 2nd or 3rd lottery) could immediately fill a top 6 role for the Oilers (must earn it though).

hunter1909

Wilde: RNH is right in range with other 6M guys, and miles from the average 3M guy. It’s not a defensible claim either way.

3M forwards PPG:

Komarov: .254
Gagner: ; .448
Pageau: .348
Cogliano .438
Kruger: .114
Coyle: .576
Smith: .333
Eller: .479

Nuge: .674

I’m actually one of the (probably) few that’s in favour of trading Nuge while his value is high, but just trashing him based on his salary without even looking to see if it’s remotely correct is trademark Oilers fan.

Nice work, but like I stated, I used 3 million as a talking point only. But RNH hasn’t been worth 6 million either, which is the point am making.

ArmchairGM

who: Mobility is not an issue with Myers.
Injury history and only 1 or 2 years remaining on contract would be a bigger concern for me.

Yeah, I agree. I think Sekera for Myers is the direction to take.

*warning – look at Myers 5×5 stats before doing this deal though. I can’t say I’ve studied them, but I did notice that the bulk of his boxcars are PP points.

ArmchairGM

Oilman99: Look at the team he is playing on, it’s pretty hard to be a plus player with a supporting cast like that,plus the goal tending is not NHL quality.

It’s a bad team, very true, but he isn’t making as much difference to that squad as say Karlsson or Doughty would. To lump him in with those players as an “elite” defensemen is to overrate him, IMO. If you project OEL onto the Oilers roster you get Klefbom x 1.5, and that’s with Oscar currently playing at 75%.

Don’t get me wrong, I think OEL is a good defenseman, but to give up material assets for *1 year* of that player when you already have Klefbom on the roster long term at a huge discount is poor management. Also, even with OEL, Nurse is the guy I’d want out there with a minute left protecting a 1-goal lead – which was my point about OEL not being the #1 guy if he played in Edmonton.

ArmchairGM

leadfarmer: Since goal differential wins games, OEL wouldn’t be our best defenseman: that distinction would and does belong to Darnell Nurse.Said at 4:54 pm.
Goal differential equals +/-.
I inserted nothing.
Goal differential is a poor way to judge players especially defensemen on poorly defensive teams with leaky goalies

leadfarmer: yeah Erik Karlsson, Nik Leddy, Brent Burns, OEL all near bottom of league.Truly overrated company

So that’s “inserting nothing” now? Oooo. And here I was under the impression that this forum is the place for sharing intelligent thought.

Wilde

OriginalPouzar: Frankly, I think that there is more risk with the top D this year than the forwards – well, there is always more risk with D but I think moreso this year – some high end offensive potential but also some bust potential.

I think our management needs to prioritize one top 4RHD this summer/spring and, aside from Dahlin, we are at least a few years away from any drafted d-man making an impact at the NHL level so I would prefer to grab a forward in this year’s draft. Assuming we don’t get first overall, I would draft one of the following 3 before a d-man:

Zadina
Tkachuk
Svechnikov

As far as the D, I would probably go with Hughes first over Boqvist.

I worry about the fact that Boqvist is playing in the junior circuit currently and how far away that is from the NHL.

The scenario where the Oilers draft a defenseman is if all those forwards are already off the board, so that’s logically ruled out because all of those guys are going to go before the non-Dahlin defensemen. The question is basically ‘who do you draft if the Oilers are outside of the top 5, non Wahlstrom edition’.

Also I’d like to touch on the ‘few years away’ theory for defensemen, if you have an Athletic subscription I’d highly recommend Tyler Dellows article on top four defensemen’s arrival time:

https://theathletic.com/212763/2018/01/18/dellow-when-do-defencemen-make-it/

I understand the sentiment of not rushing guys, but you can find out awfully fast what you probably have in the modern NHL, looking at dmen drafted early in the last few years:

Ekblad: straight to the NHL, top pairing
Hanifin: straight to the NHL, 3rd pairing
Provorov: 1 year junior, then top pairing NHL (stud #1D imo)
Werenski: 1 year big ten(same team as Hughes) then top pairing NHL(stud top pairing guy)
Chabot: 1 year junior, dozen games AHL then NHL top 4
Sergachev: 1 year junior, then NHL top pairing
McAvoy: 1 year BU, then NHL top pairing
Chychrun: straight to the NHL
Girard: 1 year junior, NHL(same size as Hughes)

As for 2017, you can quote me that Heiskanen and Makar will be everyday NHLers next year barring injury.

Wilde

hunter1909: The operative term here is: “more like”

RNH is right in range with other 6M guys, and miles from the average 3M guy. It’s not a defensible claim either way.

3M forwards PPG:

Komarov: .254
Gagner: ; .448
Pageau: .348
Cogliano .438
Kruger: .114
Coyle: .576
Smith: .333
Eller: .479

Nuge: .674

I’m actually one of the (probably) few that’s in favour of trading Nuge while his value is high, but just trashing him based on his salary without even looking to see if it’s remotely correct is trademark Oilers fan.

OriginalPouzar

hunter1909:
PS: Just like Edmonton fans got sick of Eberle, who wasn’t developed properly and as a result ends up with glaring holes in his otherwise excellent game. Turning up a few times in Brooklyn woke Ebs up in a hurry, and now he’s a real leader for his new team – something he never really was in Edmonton.

Chalk up another failed player who was featured in “Oil Change” ha ha ha (but true!)

How was Eberle not developed properly?

He was sent back to Regina for 2 full seasons after he was drafted.

He put up over 40 points as a rookie in the NHL after that (clearly ready for the NHL, not needing the AHL).

There wasn’t much shelter when he got the NHL but his development by the organization was just fine.

OriginalPouzar

Wilde:
OriginalPouzar,

Morning OP.

Who do you want the Oilers to draft out of the defensemen this year?

I go like this:

Boqvist
Hughes
Wilde
Bouchard
Dobson

Frankly, I think that there is more risk with the top D this year than the forwards – well, there is always more risk with D but I think moreso this year – some high end offensive potential but also some bust potential.

I think our management needs to prioritize one top 4RHD this summer/spring and, aside from Dahlin, we are at least a few years away from any drafted d-man making an impact at the NHL level so I would prefer to grab a forward in this year’s draft. Assuming we don’t get first overall, I would draft one of the following 3 before a d-man:

Zadina
Tkachuk
Svechnikov

As far as the D, I would probably go with Hughes first over Boqvist.

I worry about the fact that Boqvist is playing in the junior circuit currently and how far away that is from the NHL.

OriginalPouzar

hunter1909: RNH in no freaking way is a 6 million dollar player nor has he ever been. More like a 3 million dollar player with high value.

No, RNH is that player you have to have faith in, season after season, as he slowly figures everything out and the trouble with that is he’s probably going to peak long after he’s left Edmonton who are sick of overpaying etc.

There is no way that RNH is a $3M centerman – its just as “silly” to suggest he’s a $3M centerman than him being a bargain at $6M.

hunter1909

GMB3: RNH is worth only 3 million? Okay den

The operative term here is: “more like”

hunter1909

GMB3: You create the most interesting narratives I’ve ever seen. Isn’t he producing at basically his career average rate?

No idea. Like many, I was interested when the NYI were doing great, but now they’re regressing so who knows lol

GMB3

hunter1909: RNH in no freaking way is a 6 million dollar player nor has he ever been. More like a 3 million dollar player with high value.

No, RNH is that player you have to have faith in, season after season, as he slowly figures everything out and the trouble with that is he’s probably going to peak long after he’s left Edmonton who are sick of overpaying etc.

RNH is worth only 3 million? Okay den

GMB3

hunter1909:
PS: Just like Edmonton fans got sick of Eberle, who wasn’t developed properly and as a result ends up with glaring holes in his otherwise excellent game. Turning up a few times in Brooklyn woke Ebs up in a hurry, and now he’s a real leader for his new team – something he never really was in Edmonton.

Chalk up another failed player who was featured in “Oil Change” ha ha ha (but true!)

You create the most interesting narratives I’ve ever seen. Isn’t he producing at basically his career average rate?

GMB3

Matt Benning ripped one 98 MPH in the Oilers skills competition last year IIRC.

Wilde

hunter1909: That outstanding Swede you don’t include?

What is wrong with you?

Are you trying to jinx our lottery luck?

hunter1909

Wilde:
OriginalPouzar,

Morning OP.

Who do you want the Oilers to draft out of the defensemen this year?

I go like this:

Boqvist
Hughes
Wilde
Bouchard
Dobson

That outstanding Swede you don’t include?

hunter1909

PS: Just like Edmonton fans got sick of Eberle, who wasn’t developed properly and as a result ends up with glaring holes in his otherwise excellent game. Turning up a few times in Brooklyn woke Ebs up in a hurry, and now he’s a real leader for his new team – something he never really was in Edmonton.

Chalk up another failed player who was featured in “Oil Change” ha ha ha (but true!)

Wilde

OriginalPouzar,

Morning OP.

Who do you want the Oilers to draft out of the defensemen this year?

I go like this:

Boqvist
Hughes
Wilde
Bouchard
Dobson

hunter1909

godot10: Nugent-Hopkins is deal is going to be a bargain for the next three years once the next cycle of centre contracts are signed.

RNH in no freaking way is a 6 million dollar player nor has he ever been. More like a 3 million dollar player with high value.

No, RNH is that player you have to have faith in, season after season, as he slowly figures everything out and the trouble with that is he’s probably going to peak long after he’s left Edmonton who are sick of overpaying etc.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Might be true but the injury issue is a worry.

He’s had one concussion – he’s recovered and is playing and playing well.

He played full seasons in junior – yes, he had a broken hand in the playoffs which he played through – as many players play through injuries in the playoffs.

His injury history is no more than any normal player.

You are now completely stretching to do anything you can to post something negative about the prospects and individual prospects.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: If you rank everything internally you’re missing the point. The Oilers play against other teams.

No, you were missing my point. I was simply asking a question regarding LT’s ranking of Samorukov vis-a-vis Lagesson and Berglund. It has NOTHING to do with how our prospect pool ranks compared to other teams or Rasmus Andersson.

Those comment were made to simply take another shot at the organization. I’m not speaking to (or denying) the strength of our overall prospect pool, I’m simply asking a question and looking to discuss an internal ranking.

JimmyV1965

Bank Shot: No cherry picking is necessary.

RNH is 25th in terms of cap hits among centers and 40 something in points per game. And this is in a good year for him.

That’s not a bargain. When there are 20-25 other NHL teams that are getting better value out of one of their 1st or 2nd line centers, how can RNH’s contract ever be considered a bargain?

Geez, it’s late. I forgot what we’re even arguing about. I never said it was a good contract or a bargain. But in the realm of bad contracts, it’s pretty meh. Same with Eberle. I said they’re overpaid by $1 mill. Maybe it’s $1.5. At least they’re useful players. Even the Lucic contract now isn’t horrible. It will be soon though.

Bank Shot

JimmyV1965: The thing with cherry picking it’s easy to do. This is just a sample of the bad contracts out there.

Toews $10.5
Perry $8.7
Weber $7.9Nash $7.9
Parise $7.6
Ryan $7.3
Statsny $7.0
Pheanuef $7.0
Seabrook $6.9

No cherry picking is necessary.

RNH is 25th in terms of cap hits among centers and 40 something in points per game. And this is in a good year for him.

That’s not a bargain. When there are 20-25 other NHL teams that are getting better value out of one of their 1st or 2nd line centers, how can RNH’s contract ever be considered a bargain?

Bank Shot

JimmyV1965: In two years from now Drai could easily be an $11 mill player. With the cap going up and inflation, salaries will certainly rise. I think you can argue that Chia overpayed him, but this is one of the only times I think it will work in his favour.

If they signed him to a bridge deal and he averages 65 points in three years, he gets $8, just like Johanssen in Nashville. And that’s not factoring in inflation. So let’s say $8.5 mill.

If he averages 75 points for three years his next contract is $10 mill. If he excels in the playoffs like last year it could be $12 mill.

Chia has done some boneheaded things, but signing Drai long term isn’t one of them.

This is the kind of argument that had us all thinking that the Eberle and RNH contracts would be great. But they never were.

Are the Oilers going to be in the playoffs next year? They will be hard pressed to improve the team externally. If Draisaitl was on a contract that started with a 5 for the next 2 seasons they would have a lot more cap flexibility and they would know for sure if he is worth an 8 year contract.

Hopefully it works out, but its far from a sure thing.

JimmyV1965

Bank Shot: They are good deals compared to what? Lucic?

If your standard for good contract is to compare their contracts to another mediocre contract then you are setting the bar pretty low.

They aren’t good deals compared to all the guys that signed contracts around the same time as them (Seguin, Hall, Duchene, Mackinnon, Tavares, etc) and they aren’t good deals compared to all the young guys that are signing contracts now (Pastrnk, Gaudreau, Schiefele, Monahan, Huberdeau, Barkov, etc), and they aren’t even good deals compared to guys their age or older that have just signed new deals within the last couple of years ( Radulov, Marchand, Tyler Johnson, Jaden Schwartz, etc).

RNH is never going to be a bargain over the next 3 seasons when you have have 30 other guys in the league at forward producing as much or more for less money.

Guys like Johnson, and Couturier and Kadri are bargains.

If RNH were making that kind of money he’d be a bargain, but he’s not close. He’s been over paid for years, and now you could say in his last 3 years he’ll be paid fairly. That is only ifyou consider his next three years as a fresh free agent signing, but his contract as a whole has been a major failure.

The thing with cherry picking it’s easy to do. This is just a sample of the bad contracts out there.

Toews $10.5
Perry $8.7
Weber $7.9
Nash $7.9
Parise $7.6
Ryan $7.3
Statsny $7.0
Pheanuef $7.0
Seabrook $6.9

Bank Shot

godot10:
Eberle’s and Nugent-Hopkin’s deals are good deals.

Eberle production is high and consistent and more than worthy of the salary he is getting.Nugent-Hopkins is deal is going to be a bargain for the next three years once the next cycle of centre contracts are signed.

Lucic’s contract wasn’t a good deal ever.

They are good deals compared to what? Lucic?

If your standard for good contract is to compare their contracts to another mediocre contract then you are setting the bar pretty low.

They aren’t good deals compared to all the guys that signed contracts around the same time as them (Seguin, Hall, Duchene, Mackinnon, Tavares, etc) and they aren’t good deals compared to all the young guys that are signing contracts now (Pastrnk, Gaudreau, Schiefele, Monahan, Huberdeau, Barkov, etc), and they aren’t even good deals compared to guys their age or older that have just signed new deals within the last couple of years ( Radulov, Marchand, Tyler Johnson, Jaden Schwartz, etc).

RNH is never going to be a bargain over the next 3 seasons when you have have 30 other guys in the league at forward producing as much or more for less money.

Guys like Johnson, and Couturier and Kadri are bargains.

If RNH were making that kind of money he’d be a bargain, but he’s not close. He’s been over paid for years, and now you could say in his last 3 years he’ll be paid fairly. That is only if you consider his next three years as a fresh free agent signing, but his contract as a whole has been a major failure.

Pescador

JimmyV1965: In two years from now Drai could easily be an $11 mill player. With the cap going up and inflation, salaries will certainly rise. I think you can argue that Chia overpayed him, but this is one of the only times I think it will work in his favour.

If they signed him to a bridge deal and he averages 65 points in three years, he gets $8, just like Johanssen in Nashville. And that’s not factoring in inflation. So let’s say $8.5 mill.

If he averages 75 points for three years his next contract is $10 mill. If he excels in the playoffs like last year it could be $12 mill.

Chia has done some boneheaded things, but signing Drai long term isn’t one of them.

Excellent point, shame about that McDavid ‘overpay’

JimmyV1965

godot10:
Eberle’s and Nugent-Hopkin’s deals are good deals.

Eberle production is high and consistent and more than worthy of the salary he is getting.Nugent-Hopkins is deal is going to be a bargain for the next three years once the next cycle of centre contracts are signed.

Lucic’s contract wasn’t a good deal ever.

Agreed. Even if you argue they were overpaid, by how much. $1 mill? These contracts look great compared to Lucic.

JimmyV1965

Bank Shot: Will he though?

Eberle and RNH never became good deals.

If they were going to pay Draisaitl that much they would have been better off on a 2-3 year bridge and then sign him for 8 years after that. I doubt he would have increased his value that much over $8.5 million.

In two years from now Drai could easily be an $11 mill player. With the cap going up and inflation, salaries will certainly rise. I think you can argue that Chia overpayed him, but this is one of the only times I think it will work in his favour.

If they signed him to a bridge deal and he averages 65 points in three years, he gets $8, just like Johanssen in Nashville. And that’s not factoring in inflation. So let’s say $8.5 mill.

If he averages 75 points for three years his next contract is $10 mill. If he excels in the playoffs like last year it could be $12 mill.

Chia has done some boneheaded things, but signing Drai long term isn’t one of them.

VOR

Harpers Hair: Yeah…6’1″ 215 can be a problem for an NHL defenseman

I think Rasmus is going to be a star in the NHL but let’s admit he has a weight and conditioning problem. When your GM takes shots at you in public you know there is a problem. Given he isn’t a great skater Andersson can’t give away any ice playing above his optimal weight.

His shot is moving fast but he isn’t highly accurate. He also telegraphs the crap out of it. And it takes forever for him to get it off.

Rasmus is, however, a great passer and wonderful against forecheck pressure.

But do we talk about that, nope. It is the shot all the time.

So I also want to give his shot performance some perspective. Kyle Bigos was officially clocked at 104 miles per hour. I don’t notice him playing in the NHL. In fact, there are at least six d playing in the AHL who have been clocked at speeds greater than 101 mph. Two are prospects, four are journeymen.

Having a canon gets you noticed. It doesn’t make you a player. Rasmus Andersson is a player, with or without the canon and with or without a few extra pounds. But I would say his career will go better if he can stay at optimal body weight and improve his fitness regime. And learn to get the puck away quicker, more accurately, and to disguise his release.

Bling

Interesting stat from Corsica:

Of the top 16 even strength scorers who have played at least 300 minutes at even strength this season, only three have ever switched teams.

William Karlsson, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle.

Gulp.

who

Harpers Hair: Calgary AHL RDRasmus Andersson just won the skills competition with a 101.5 mph shot. Do the Oilers have a prospect like that?

Don’t know anything about Andersson.
But if you are rating him as a great prospect just because he shoots the puck 100 mph I don’t think you have a future in scouting.

who

Scungilli Slushy: I don’t think they should but be prepared. Unless someone does PC some favours or a UFA does, and I think the teams are wary of helping the Oilers because a few smart adds would make them a real problem, he might be looking at gouging offers for trades.

Also there aren’t many teams that fit the bill for a good RD. Basically Colorado and any other teams desperate for a quality centre. In Chiarelli’s favour is the league moving to skating which floats Nuge’s boat. The Jackets are thin at centre especially with Dubinsky failing and trading away Karlsson.

The Jets may move Trouba or Myers but have centres. I wouldn’t trade Nuge or Klefbom for Myers. Too much injury history and I’m wary of oversized players these days because mobility. PC might be seeing Chara 2.0.

Mobility is not an issue with Myers.
Injury history and only 1 or 2 years remaining on contract would be a bigger concern for me.

Harpers Hair

Bank Shot: Well at least he’s not a fatty like Rasmus.

Yeah…6’1″ 215 can be a problem for an NHL defenseman 🙂

godot10

Eberle’s and Nugent-Hopkin’s deals are good deals.

Eberle production is high and consistent and more than worthy of the salary he is getting. Nugent-Hopkins is deal is going to be a bargain for the next three years once the next cycle of centre contracts are signed.

Lucic’s contract wasn’t a good deal ever.

Bank Shot

Harpers Hair: Might be true but the injury issue is a worry.

Well at least he’s not a fatty like Rasmus.

Harpers Hair

Bling: Ethan Bear (RHD) at age 20. 11 points in 26 games = 0.42 PPG.

Rasmus Andersson (RHD) at age 20. 22 points in 54 games = 0.41 PPG.

Might be true but the injury issue is a worry.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: I fail to see what Andersson has to do with a question regarding the ranking of three Oilers prospect dmen internally.

If you rank everything internally you’re missing the point. The Oilers play against other teams.

Bank Shot

Scungilli Slushy: All true. But who is going to score more and that matters. Drai will keep pace and because age will seem like a deal at some point.

Will he though?

Eberle and RNH never became good deals.

If they were going to pay Draisaitl that much they would have been better off on a 2-3 year bridge and then sign him for 8 years after that. I doubt he would have increased his value that much over $8.5 million.

Bling

Harpers Hair: Calgary AHL RDRasmus Andersson just won the skills competition with a 101.5 mph shot. Do the Oilers have a prospect like that?

Ethan Bear (RHD) at age 20. 11 points in 26 games = 0.42 PPG.

Rasmus Andersson (RHD) at age 20. 22 points in 54 games = 0.41 PPG.

Scungilli Slushy

NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): 5 RFA years and 3 UFA years are not comparable to 7 or 8 UFA years. Also, Drai has not had a Hart nominated season yet. I would not put him on Tavares’ level at this time.
Tavares, as a UFA should make as much or more than McDavid as Connor’s deal included RFA years. McDavid’s UFA years are worth the max contract.

All true. But who is going to score more and that matters. Drai will keep pace and because age will seem like a deal at some point. 5 years age for heavy legged players is ‘material’. Especially in this climate.

~27-30 are the worst ages to resign franchise players or UFAs – typically in peak career wise and at their most expensive, and very vulnerable to falling off. Better at the 27 end if you have to on average.

Ideally players get extended and have them under contract into their low 30’s and trade them at max value and replenish, other than faces of the league like McDavid. Agents are on to this I’m sure.

Bling

I disagree that the prospect pipeline is as weak as some make it out to be, as the Oilers have some of their best young players playing on the team.

Puljujarvi, Draisaitl, McDavid and Nurse are all 22 and younger. Yamamoto has already made the NHL and will probably stick next year.

OriginalPouzar

Oilman99: There is more potential to fix the d problem internally than there is at the winger position. Developing a scoring winger is still a year or two away. If one or two of the potential d prospects does not progres, the drafting done in the last three years is a total bust after McD.

I disagree – dmen generally take longer to develop. I fully expect Bear, Jones and Mantra to each spend all of next year in the AHL and they would be far from busts. 3rd round drafted dmen should be expected to take a good four years post draft until ready for NHL action.