Sharp Edge of a Razor
The Edmonton Oilers are going to be doing the ‘theme from Rawhide’ in the coming months (“Cut ’em out, ride ’em in, Ride ’em in, cut ’em out, Cut ’em out, ride ’em in, RAWHIDE!”) and that means badly needed fresh recruits. The fall graduating class is far more encouraging that the 2017 group, led by Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson and William Lagesson.
THE ATHLETIC!
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- New Lowetide: Do you trust Peter Chiarelli?
- New Corey Pronman: Mid-Season draft rankings
- Lowetide: Which way you going, Brandon Davidson?
- Pierre Lebrun: A chat with Peter Chiarelli
- Lowetide: Putting together optimal lines after the deadline
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers planning for summer.
- Lowetide: Central Scouting and where the Oilers shop for talent
My Chiarelli article is getting some attention this morning, it’s a sincere attempt to frame the fan upset against the organization’s stated plan. Here is an excerpt:
- Oilers fans are mindful of the potential ceiling this club had that seemingly no longer exists. The real tragedy is that promise being extinguished by the team’s management. That could (and possibly has) caused a fracture between club and fans that may not have a solution, at least not in the short term.
CURRENT 50-MAN
- UFA’s: Patrick Maroon, Mike Cammalleri, Yohann Auvitu, Mark Letestu, Edward Pasquale, Mark Fayne. Total: 6.
- RFA’s: Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Ryan Strome, Drake Caggiula, Brandon Davidson, Anton Slepyshev, Iiro Pakarinen, Laurent Brossoit, Dillon Simpson, Joey Laleggia, Ty Rattie, Nick Ellis, Braden Christoffer, Keegan Lowe, Grayson Downing, Kyle Platzer, Ben Betker, Patrick Russell, Brian Ferlin. Total: 19.
- The Oilers will have three of their four slides arrive in pro hockey next season (Yamamoto, Benson, Wells) with Dmitri Samorukov heading back to junior. Stuart Skinner is eligible to sign a pro deal but it would be highly unusual to have two goaltenders arrive at the same time.
LEAVING
- Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu and Mike Cammalleri. These men represent actual NHL talent and will need to be replaced.
- Yohann Auvitu, Edward Pasquale, Mark Fayne, Anton Slepyshev, Braden Christoffer,Dillon Simpson, Grayson Downing, Kyle Platzer, Ben Betker, Brian Ferlin run the range in terms of quality but the organization will have players who duplicate their skills. Simpson may stay with Keegan Lowe leaving, but I’m guesing it turns out this way.
- With three SR’s turning pro, and if the names above are correct, Edmonton will enter summer with 39 names on the 50-man list.
ARRIVING
- Slide-rules Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson and Dylan Wells will all arrive in pro, likely Bakersfield for two of them, we’ll see about Yamamoto. High skill forwards often skip the AHL.
- William Lagesson is a strong option to play in Bakersfield this fall. Edmonton has signed him and controls his hockey destination.
- Tyler Vesel is having a fine season with Omaha-Nebraska. He plays center, so might be a valuable addition to the Condors (who badly need skilled pivots).
R.I.P. BACK OF NET ☠️⚰️?
Vesel w/ another for @OmahaHKY! pic.twitter.com/N7KQw47wae
— Omaha Video (@OmahaVID) January 28, 2018
He is an older prospect so there won’t be a kicker in year three. Is he better than Joe Gambardella? I’ve never been certain Edmonton would sign Vesel, but it’s probably worth the roster spot just to see if he can deliver in pro hockey. Rob Vollman’s NHLE estimator has NCHC players retaining 43 percent of their offense. For Vesel, who is 10-14-24 in 26 games, his NHLE is 32.5 points. That’s a fine number.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Much to discuss!
- Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Oilers handled Nurse well, what to expect from the second half.
- Scott Cullen, TSN. Super Bowl, Oilers at the deadline.
- Josh Eberley, Hoop Mag. NBA had a massive trade yesterday.
10-1260text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I’m looking foward to having Lagesson come over to North America next season and, presumably, join the Condors out of camp.
LT: Given the addition of Lagesson and Gryba and Stanton both signed through next year, do you think management (current) will bring both Simpson and Lowe back?
They are both RFAs.
I would have though Lowe would be an easy one to let go but, from accounts, he’s had a very nice season and, I’m assuming, is a solid mentor for the younger prospects.
I don’t really count Lowe as a prospect but he has value down in the AHL.
I think he’s likely approaching the “veteran” status for AHL lineups.
Its interesting that Skinner is having a better season than Wells (at least since his trade) but Wells is the player that will turn pro (he’s signed).
I assume they will sign Skinner this spring?
I think we can add Cameron Hebig’s name to a current slide rule that will be turning pro next year.
I look forward to him providing some offensive punch to the Condors.
Is Tyler Vessel the only material college player likely to turn pro next year? I don’t believe he’s signed yet but will probably get an ELC this spring.
I think Rasanen and McPhee are both slated for at least one more year at Boston College, maybe 2?
I’m afraid to read the Chiarelli piece over at The Athletic – we know where this thread is going to go today…….
Hunter1909 Emergency Death March™ Update for new/returning players:
Oilers catastrophic start to the season makes for Emergency Death March™; a Contest within a Contest!
Emergency Death March™ is a brand new game!
Here’s how You play: simply go to http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com and click ENTER NEW CONTEST
It’s Easy! Free to enter!
More prizes for Emergency Death March™ winners…Contest Book will remain open until puck drop for Chiarelli’s home team return game VS the Bruins on February 20th.
Larsson missed another practice due to personal reasons.
Rumor from HFB, so take it with a grain, but buddy’s friend who is neighbours with Larsson said he went back to Sweden.
Hope all is well with Larsson and family.
RE Chiarelli article:
Chia is now in the position with much of the fanbase that no matter what he does from here on in and how this team fares, this fanbase have lumped him into the collection of poor GM’s, not only in the league but also in the group of poor Oiler GM’s. Many feel he has done more harm to this organization than Eakins.
If its the end of the June and Oiler fans hear “the Edmonton Oilers have traded Ryan Nugent Hopkins for….” many will have a quick flash of Chia and a woodshed for that moment just before they hear about the return.
Or Stockton.
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=26392
Good chance he struggles in the A as a no name overager who went undrafted.
You have mentioned a few times LT, both here and at The Athletic (love the site by the way. Everyone I want to read with the exception of Friedman is there. So worth the small amount it costs), but we have specific additions we need to address. And I do hope and pray it isn’t all internal as per the last year.
1 LW
1/2 RW
4C
2 RD
???. McDavid. Puljujarvi (costing us millions on his next contract ala Drai)
Lucic. Draisatl. ??? (maybe Yamamoto)
Khaira. Nuge. Strome (unless you off load Strome, although I don’t mind him at centre, but not a 4C at $3 mill)
Cagguila. ????. Kassian
Klef. Larsson
Nurse.????
Sekera. Benning
Russell (man that contract looks worse every day)
I noticed you didn’t have Brossoit on the list for leaving. I can’t imagine them giving him another contract. I also noticed that you have Auvitu leaving, I am unsure about him. I guess if he is not in next yesrs plans he will be sent down or traded. Their handling of him suggests they like something about him.
The Oilers do seem to have a log jam on defense. It will be hard for any of the minor leaguers to get any cups of coffee. Maybe we see some defense traded for fowatds at the prospect level. I hope that the Oilers do themselves a favor and keep a nice gap in the 50-man list, say 45ish.
Hebig is not a slide rule. He is burning off his first year right now.
Hebig playing in the ECHL is a pretty good possibility, could make the AHL but probably in a bottom 6 role. Think Greg Chase, Curtis Hamilton, Kyle Platzer.
Auvitu will find a coach with some balls, and be Justin Schultz, or he won’t and he’ll play in Europe until 40.
Lowetide,
Thanks LT. Now I have the rawhide/stand by your man scene from the Blues Brothers playing in my head. Could be worse, I suppose…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdR6MN2jKYs
I see him as better defensively and has some physical element to his game, but Schultz is far more refined offensively. My guess is Europe pretty soon.
Bakersfield could start the year with
Benson- Gambardella- Yamamoto
Xxxx- Vessel – Rattie
Xxx – Hebig – Xxx
Jones – Bear
Lagesson – Mantha
Ellis
Wells
That line up looks consistent with the AHL developement role
He might struggle in the AHL and be on his way to the ECHL although he is having a very nice season (yes, as an overager) – a comeback season after missing all of last year with injury.
I have a feeling that he will do very well at the AHL level (although is likely to be one of those guys that can contribute at the AHL level without it translating to the NHL level) – that’s just pure baseless speculation mind you.
If they don’t trade Slepyshev and Auvitu at the deadline I can see them re-signing them. They won’t cost much and are valuable depth players. I still believe Slepyshev has decent upside. If he’s on the block, I predict he ends up in Tampa Bay where he can play with Kucherov and Vasilevsky (half of TB’s big four with Hedman and Stamkos), who know him from playing on the same teams in Russia. I think he’d fit in well there and maybe they take a chance on being able to unlock his former #1 KHL overall potential. I think Slpeyshev would fit well there. I could also see TB being interested in Letestu as a faceoff winner (TB is in the bottom 2 or 3 in the NHL in FO%) and PK/PP/Shootout specialist (even though he’s had a down year in those categories). He is a veteran presence and doesn’t have a huge cap hit. What could Edmonton get from TB for Letestu (UFA rental) and Slepyshev (RFA)? A prospect? If they added a pick (3rd or 4th round) could they get a prospect of note back along with someone’s salary who isn’t playing? Peca, Sustr and Paquette aren’t getting a lot of ice time or games. So Slepyshev, Letestu and a 3rd Round for Sustr (for his cap space) and one of their decent prospects (Howden, Yan, Stephens, Joseph?).
Not commenting on Hebig’s future, but his fourth year in junior will be much more productive than any of the players you mentioned here. Barring injury, he should easily get 100 pts. The highest amongst the group you listed is 85.
While in junior?
Alright, I did not know that.
Thanks.
It more impressive when factoring in that he missed all of last season – a full season of development.
I’m very cautious of this player and will be surprised if he ever plays an NHL game, however, I do think he will be a good AHL player as soon as next year. Maybe that’s fantasy, I don’t know.
If Benson makes the jump, I think he might have more of a chance than Yamamoto. I’ve never heard a negative comment about his speed, compete level, physical play (besides the obvious injuries), defensive play, or professionalism. And he has enough skill (decent production right now, record scoring at lower levels, and former almost exceptional status as hints to that) that he may be the type to ‘skip’ the AHL. He sounds more like a player that TMac may trust to play in the NHL than most. I’m probably a little high on his ceiling and probably rooting for him a bit too hard, but I think he might surprise a lot of people.
Benson is more of an “all-tools” player than Yamamoto – from accounts, your description above is accurate – he has a compete and a battle level and is responsible in all situations and zones.
While I think that a player like Yamamoto has the upper end offensive potential, given Tyler was considered for exceptional status, he too has some higher end offensive potential but i do see his NHL ceiling at more of a 2W/3W type guy – you never know though – perhaps he goes off with McDavid or Drai and scores 33 in his 2nd year?
I still would think that Tyler is slated for the Condors next season, however, you could be right, maybe his more mature overall game translates to the NHL a little quicker?
I don’t understand the eagerness to dump Maroon. It is going to cost just as much to replace him, if not more,it makes no sense. Yamamoto is going to have to get much stronger on his skates to compete effectively at the NHL level, this was proven in his first nine games, things are a lot different playing against men,rather than boys.
Benson boxcars would be on the same level as Yamo’s if he had a full season of play. His midget stats were off the charts.
IMO, re-signing the non-Nurse RFAs will come down to if they are willing to take a very modest bump on re-up for 1/2 years. That also means getting around Strome’s QO.
We don’t want to waste the development time we’ve given some of these players, but we also don’t want their contracts getting in the way of what we need to add to be a viable playoff team next season.
If salary increases are an issue, we send them to other clubs who will give us assets to upgrade a system badly in need of an infusion and the trading team gets a real good look before talking contract.
Maroon & 3rd round pick to STL for one of their “Big Four” (Kyrou, Kostin, Thompson, Thomas) and one of their little-used roster forwards (Upshall, Thorburn, Brodziak, Jaskin) for cap space to make room for Maroon. He’s more than a rental for them as there is a very high likelihood he’d re-sign with them. Can they negotiate a contract ahead of the trade?
Good points.
If Friedman is right Chiarelli is pretty wary of getting his ass handed to him again. It must be embarrassing for him, they can’t be that dense to not see what has happened.
Does any other team have three top 6 centres? Unless they are going to use Leon on wing a lot or use Nuge there at some point he’ll go.
The way to keep him is to ride things out another year and let NMCs expire and then free up cap. Sign one UFA maybe for next year.
Lucic McDavid JP
Caggiula (1.5M x 2) Draisaitl Strome (3M x 3)
Khaira Nuge Yama
xx xx Kassian
Nurse (4.75M x 8) Larsson
Klefbom Sekera
Russell Benning (1.5M x 2)
Davidson (1.6M)
Talbot Montoya
Roster 19 Cap Hit 74.296M Bonuses 2.73M cap Space 5.703M.
Given how they roll this wouldn’t surprise me. Basically 3M for 4 spots and covering bonuses which they seem to do.
Sign Nurse asap as soon as the official sterling fork is stuck in the season so there is no threat of an ‘offer sheet’ on Nurse.
There is no quarter for making another dumb trade using that excuse, and Nuge doesn’t have sideburns, nor Klefbom.
** I have the cap at 80M
I worry that the rigours of an NHL season coming out of junior might set him back physically. I’d like to see him spend time in the A to keep strengthening with less strain on him. Maybe a year end call up if needed and he’s stayed healthy.
Things like his injury take time to fully settle down. Same with Sekera, assuming coming back as wobbly as he is doesn’t set him back, he’ll be much better next season.
No, they can’t negotiate a contract ahead of the trade unless the Oilers give express permission to do so.
Yes, there will be a hole left by the impending Maroon trade but the assets to be acquired are important to the future of the organization (hopefully).
This does not mean that the player cannot be brought back in the off-season – it also doesn’t mean that the two sides can’t talk before an impending trade to discuss the possibility of a return and even negotiate deal parameters.
Man the autopsy on this team is going to be difficult. The metrics you choose for measuring performance (5×5/60 for F, COrsi % for D and EV Sv% for G) are all good to great.
You e got McDavid in his own tier, Drai in his own and then great top 6 support with guys like Nuge, Maroon, Lucic and Pokoj all nearer 2 than 1.5. And then your entire bottom 6 is nearing 1.25-1.5.
Then on defensemen you’ve got a huge spike from Nurse and then everyone is over 50% except Russell who is just shy and easily explained with his history with Corsi. Talbots Ev Sv% seems in the range.
I know special teams but wow. How do you really analyze whether this teams needs an overhaul or a tweak?
Looks like a better plan than usual. They’ll have to find some size on the wing, that is a small skill group. Stanton Malone Callahan and Gryba are under contract so likely there as well.
I think the biggest factor in deciding that is how Talbot plays over the back half of the season.
Imo, he’s been the biggest disappointment on the team so far this season. If he returns to form over the final 33 games, that answer the biggest question of all for Chiarelli: Am I set in goal with this player or not?
Goaltending is such a massive contributor to the PK as well that it’s hard to separate Talbot’s disappointing play from that unit. I don’t know why this tendency to let a soft first goal in has started to plague Cam, but he needs to dial it in asap.
Another question worth pondering: How much of this is because of the reduction in the goalie equipment?
And, lest we give up on Brossoit too early. Let’s keep Tristan Jarry’s numbers in mind. He’s having a good season for the Pens. Patience.
They may sign Evan Polei to another AHL contract (or a real NHL contract).
I think the complete opposite.
Benson projects to be a strong two way pro, but that’s exactly the type of guy to go to the AHL for a bit, before making the jump as a middle sixer who outscores middle competition. This is the route Caggiula should have gone, and you can see the effect. Can’t find it offensively, and didn’t develop properly defensively, so he’s useless both ways whereas if he learned to check he’d at least suppress some offence. If Benson is to succeed in the NHL, it will be either as a low-event checker or as a mid-event scoring checker. You have to make sure these players can check grown men BEFORE you send them to the NHL. There are plenty of speedy, strong forwards in the AHL.
Which brings me to Yamamoto. he has showed he can do everything in the NHL but finish, and be on the ice when his teammates finish. There are no NHL goalies in the AHL. There are very few NHL defensemen in the AHL. He can’t learn to finish against NHLers in the AHL. The only piece of the puzzle he didn’t have in his 9 games is the final one, the puck actually crossing the goal line. We’ve seen from Puljujarvi and Draisaitl the same thing.
All of the following is score and venue adjusted, 5v5.
Puljujarvi rookie season:
GP: 28
CF: 53.71%
FF: 53.63%
SCF: 53.63%
HDCF: 49.33%
iSH: 0.00% <———————————– (a lot of people forgetting this)
oiSH: 8.08%
Drai:
GP: 37
CF: 50.64%
FF: 51.78%
SCF: 53.54%
HDCF: 48.71%
iSH: 2.63%
oiSH: 5.05%
Yamamoto:
GP: 9
CF: 56.79%
FF: 57.23%
SCF: 57.46%
HDCF: 65.92%
iS%: 0.00%
oiS: 2.85%
The first two established themselves as everyday NHLers the next year. I'm betting on Yamamoto to do the same.
I was just discussing this with one of my partners – one of the most important things to watch for in the remaining games is Talbot’s performance. Here is hoping for more positive consistency.
With that said, even if he doesn’t get back to form, he will still be the 1G heading in to next year and we will all be hopeful that this season is the one-off (and we’ll all have much more trepidation heading in to next season as it relates to tending).
Go Oilers!
Go Talbot!
Benson is not a speedy skater. Seeing him live, I would suggest he is an Average skater. maybe check some draft stuff on him …
I’m convinced the “ride it out” approach will get us right back where we are this time next year.
We’ll have the same issues at forward and defense, and maybe the goaltending improves a bit. Still not a playoff team.
There’s no quarter hanging on to wishful dreams of cups to come during the rebuild keeping us from what we need to be a playoff team next year.
The team needs a ‘tweak’, in the sense that all of their problems are basically botoom half of the roster stuff, but pretty well everybody there needs to go.
The UFA’s I’d bring maybe two back, Cammaleri and Auvitu. Out of 6.
The RFA’s, Nurse, Benning, Simpson, Ellis, Davidson. But I’d trade Davidson if he has value. Slepyshev, no point unless you’re firing Todd because he’s made up his mind on the player. Strome, only if he comes back for less than 3M.
So it’s not like they have to make a blockbuster move, just a lot of little ones, and by a lot I mean probably a dozen or more.
The RHD depth chart is still Lacking Big time. Its not good enough at the NHL Level and that is with Russell on the list.
PC needs to shore up RHD before fall 2018.
Even Chairelli’s best moves look poor this year.
Maroon is good, but a penalty machine that either needs to be traded or signed (not trusting PC’s negotiation skills).
Talbot’s taken a step back and they’re on track to play him a bunch in a lost season.
My hope for the rest of the season:
– Good returns for Maroon/Letestu/Strome
– PC fired at the end of the season with Paul Fenton coming in.
We can trade him to a cup contender and still try and sign him. If anything that could help our bargaining position (unless he goes off in the playoffs). I’m not too sure we want both Maroon and Lucic in our top 6 anyways.
What reduction in goalie equipment?
Wilde,
Drake will get looks he doesn’t deserve because he “chose” Edmonton. This organization will choose loyalty over competence 100 times out of 100.
Biggest difference being the Oilers didn’t burn a second round pick on Hebig,
Oilers will likely have 2 seconds this coming draft (Maroon), hopefully they use their own pick as it will be in the top 40.
Take the the other second rounder, package it with a LHD prospect & trade it….
Nevermind, too complex already
I like the thought process of going for a young guy like Hebig. It only cost a spot on the 50 man list. There is a very small chance he will make it, but thats why its a good get, there is a chance. Many of the signings on the 50 man list last summer that are AHL players had no chance of making it.
I believe Drake was a previous linemate with Brock Boeser. Wonder if Vancouver would be interested?
Or maybe Hell find his game. He’s fast, he hits and he forechecks. I like his game, I hope he finds his fit on this team.
Wanna see something fun?
Caggiula with McDavid 5v5:
TOI: 99:28
CF: 39.57%
FF: 39.37%
SCF: 41.46%
HDCF: 41.05%
***************************GF: 45.28%**************************
***************************PDO: 1033***************************
This is a player that gets outshot and out chanced SO BADLY with the best player in the world, that they can have a ridiculously unsustainably good PDO of 1033 and STILL GET OUTSCORED.
Is this an NHL player Todd?!
This makes for depressing reading.
Connor McDavid must feel like Jimi Hendrix playing in a bar band given the quality of his wingers.
yup
Get ready for a lot of this!
https://youtu.be/3GRSbr0EYYU
hunter1909,
It’s so weird to me, cause he always LOOKED like a 3rd/4th line tweener, but somehow, he has this…reputation? Assumptions around him? that he’s a potential 2nd liner. I have no idea how it happened or why he seems so goddamn bulletproof.
Bag of Pucks,
I dunno, Jarry is two years younger than LB and is starting to arrive in the NHL, at least as a backup. He’s taken his opportunity and taken a step forward.
LB has had lots of opportunity, he has never ran with it. Had the best opp of his career this year when Talbot went down, didn’t really make anything of it.
I think LB is an AHL goalie, with the small chance that he might successfully backup later in his career. He’d be a good guy to keep on the farm as a third goalie – question is – does he think that? I’d guess he would want a shot on another team before resigning himself to that conclusion. All depends on the contracts offered.
zatch,
It’s simple – speed.
The Oilers don’t have many fast wingers. Cagguila is one guy that can keep up with McDavid.
I think Todd likes to troll PC with some of his deployments. If PC isn’t going to give him a legitimate top line winger to play with Connor, then Todd will play really the only other player that might work out there.
The Oilers have to find a way to get a top flight winger who can shoot the puck playing with Connor.
It didn’t work with Hall – he’s better on his own line – that’s why they traded him.
It wasn’t Eberle either, who has a decent shot but takes too long to get it off.
Maybe it’s Puljujarvi but I think you want to make sure and put a barrier in his place. Pulju looks great with Drai too.
I don’t know who they can afford next year. Neal would be good but I think it’s cost prohibitive. Sign Maroon, trade Lucic and sign Neal. That’s my ideal summer for the Oilers.
This is the problem. There are lines that work with McDavid on this team, and don’t starve the rest of the roster. Maroon and Puljujarvi have the best results with him which leaves Nuge, Lucic, Leon, Khaira, Slepyshev, Strome, Cammaleri to make up the middle 6, but Todd just runs his deployment against the results, AND the process.
It’s infuriating. What metrics does this team use? Any at all? Why does Lucic have just 72 minutes with Leon when he’s the skill centre that gets dragged down the LEAST by him, and they outchance and outscore their competition? AND it worked in the goddamn playoffs.
19 – 97 – 98
27 – 29 – 18
16 – 93 – 13
I’m not sure if I want Todd to actually do this, so we win a few games, or if i want him to continue what he’s doing so we finish bottom 3 and the org takes a long look at what he’s done with what he’s been given.
If Cagguila could hit the gaddamned net every once in while, he could be a wonderful player!
Puljujarvi produces like a top line winger with McDavid. So does Maroon. McDavid’s line is set, Todd just doesn’t use it.
Hall and McDavid were actually fire together in their small sample, but it’s better to split them up for the benefit of the team. But they dominated in high danger chances.
Eberle scored comparably to Draisaitl with McDavid last year. He just didn’t look amazing to some people, but the fact is he produced.
Todd has never had a drought of wingers that work with McDavid. He just thinks he does because he ignores evidence.
McDavid and Larson absence from practice today.
McDavid just a day off after the all star festivities.
So, so very Oilers.
You’ll never walk alone with that kind of thinking.
That’s because he’s a blue chip young player, that only a moron can fail to recognize. Where does this leave TMac, lol
Wilde,
Its a valid point on Yamamoto but (1) how much can we read in to the numbers in such a small sample size and (2) lets not forget who Kailer’s center was for the vast majority of those minutes.
LMHF#1,
That was good comedic relief!
Wilde,
McLellan coaches from the opposite end of the spectrum as Eakins. This might seem like a good thing… I think he not only doesn’t use analytics but almost seems to make decisions that go in the opposite direction of what the numbers might tell him to do, just for the sake of proving the ‘nerds’ wrong. He has never spoken positively of analytics and has said many negative comments about the analytics community (see Russell own goal rant: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/oilers-coach-todd-mclellan-defends-kris-russell-nerds/)
His usage of players also hints at his ignoring the numbers. Slepyshev and Puljujaarvi with McDavid show well in the numbers and Caggiula not so much but he has gone away from these line combos. Lucic and Letestu are other examples of guys being played in positions they have not had success but he continues to put them back out there. Maybe he needs some assistant coaches who can share a new/different perspective from a numbers angle?
Searched for scouting reports, and I stand corrected. There were some concerns about his speed. There were also some scouts who said the opposite:
“The combination of his thick 6-foot, 196-pound build, elite skating ability, strong shot and physical edge gives him the right skill set to develop into a high-end power forward.”
–Kelly Friesen, Buzzing the Net
“Tyler Benson has shown to be a strong skater and plays a very gritty and physical game. He has very good speed and quick acceleration which helps him to get in quickly on the forecheck and force defenders to make plays quickly or be plastered into the boards. When the puck does get turned over, he gets himself into good position to let go a strong wrist shot or a blistering one-timer. He has a great first step, which helps him to get to loose pucks, or to transition quickly when a teammate creates a turnover in his own zone, creating breakaways and odd-man rushes. Benson has a powerful stride which allows him to fight through checks and get to the front of the net. His agility and edge work are also good, with the ability to maneouver through traffic.”
– Ben Kerr (Last Word on Sports)
“Although not a game-breaker when it comes to speed, he has above-average acceleration and ability to create separation .. This comes from a powerful lower body that produces a strong and stable stride. His power aids in fending off checkers .. Continues to push the pace especially when carrying the puck; often has good solo efforts in transition .. Uses his body well to guard and hold off defenders and keep them on his back and away from the puck .. This flows from strong, precise edge work where more lower body strength is obvious .. Stops and starts make him slippery and tough to defend, especially off the wall, powers through his edges to drive his way to the net and create scoring chances.”
– Andrew Levangie (McKeen’s Hockey)
“Excellent mobility, speed, extremely strong stance, very powerful. Drives hard and doesn’t relent with the puck on entries. Will explode if given a lane. ”
– Ryan Wagman (Hockey Prospectus)
This one doesn’t mention speed but it might be my favourite report on him:
“Players can be assessed as complete players – that doesn’t mean they exceed the standard in all areas of the game. Benson, on the other hand, comes pretty darn close, almost in an Eric Staal (when he was dominant) kind of way. He is a nightmare to defend because he is as physically punishing with the puck as he is without it. There are only a few of his 2016 draft-eligible peers (Auston Matthews in particular) who makes successful on-the-spot corrections once a chance to create offense in a specific area of the ice is no longer an option. Benson is very shifty with tremendous balance, meaning he can continue to move if he gets hit at the same time he decides to change direction. Possessing the kind of vision and IQ he owns makes it no surprise the CHL came close to giving him “exceptional” status to play a full season as a 15 year old (cut short by a knee injury).”
– Steve Kournianos (The Draft Analyst)
For me personally, the small sample size is buoyed by how outstanding the numbers are. Even after the sample gets bigger and stops running so hot, it still has such a long way to go before they’re below team average. Also in the comparison to Leon and Jesse, Jesse played with McDavid plenty in 2016-17.
As for 97 and Yamamoto, they were greater than the sum of their parts:
Conor with Kailer , then Conor without(5v5 score, zone, venue adj)
CF : 63.32% / / 53.00%
FF : 64.33% / / 54.33%
ScF: 64.74% / / 54.10%
hdcf: 73.36% / / 55.72%
Again, I’m not under the impression that the numbers keep up, but they’d have to play insanely far from their established sample to even bring them back to the team’s average with 97 on the ice.
If in the end, the situation next year is we’re forced to put Yamamoto with McDavid because they’re too good together, then that’s a good outcome, is it not? Gives Pulju to Leon.
Appears it’s just the goalie pants so far that were streamlined. I thought they were scheduled to bring on more changes this season. Wow, the NHL is really having a hard time getting this rolled out with the equipment manufacturers not playing ball.
Larsson will NOT be available on Thursday due to a personal reason – yikes, I hope everything is OK with his family.
In other news, Katz is building his media empire in the US according to CNN:
“Canadian billionaire Daryl Katz’s company is the new owner of LifeZette, the site co-founded by Fox News host Laura Ingraham.
A subsidiary of Katz’s company The Katz Group has taken ownership of the nearly three-year-old right-leaning site, LifeZette’s interim CEO, Tom Edwards, confirmed to CNN.”
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/media/daryl-katz-laura-ingraham-lifezette/index.html
Cue unwelcome flashbacks to Pocklington’s ventures into pop-politics…
I also don’t think going with what they have is a good idea.
Ideally they wouldn’t have 2 aging D paid like top 4 D restricting them. Larsson and Klef were set and they had 2 emerging youth, one they are committed to in Nurse, both needing contracts. Nurse has nailed it so they are again backed into a corner.
Their options to clear cap are trading Nuge or Klefbom or both. Long term not a good idea unless they can replace quality at the same career point or younger but I don’t see many teams lining up for that these days.
There is no easy way out not full of risk until after next season and despite talk of trades from PC it makes me think they might not do anything that big.
They like Caggiula, Khaira and Yama given his push earlier. They also seem to like Strome and JP is too good to not use at this point.
They might not qualify Slepy and look for a cheap UFA up front and so forth. Maybe they can squeak Maroon back in.
I’ve seen some incredible bar band musicians over the years. More like Jimi playing in a School of Rock recital.
Coach says “odds are Letestu will be back in the lineup” on Thursday.
He mentioned that he’s an important part of the team and provides great value to the team but they need to get it out of him more often”.
Yeah and I believe those changes were actually implemented around this time last season. I haven’t heard anything about it since the start of training camp when they said they were having issues. The league has swept it under the rug it appears
Jaxon,
Thanks for that, good to know if he’s healthy he’s a powerful skater. Sounds like he can be a handful driving the net. Please don’t rush him Oilers until he’s 100%.
OriginalPouzar,
I don’t understand McLellan’s love in for Letestu?? I get it, he’s a great guy. I like him too but I don’t see the ‘important part of our team’ unless you consider he has played a critical role in both the first pp and pk units this year. ‘Critical role’ in this case does not equal ‘valuable role’. Both the pp and pk looked better last game with a mish mash of players thrown out there. If he is pumping him up for trade value, don’t bother we’re not getting much for him unless the gm trading for him has been completely ignoring all games Letestu has played this year and basing his trade value on his role on the pp LAST year.
With respect, the difference between Jimi Hendrix and any freaking bar band musician has got to be about 1,000 light years.
prefonmich,
McLellan’s on board with the pump and dump.
Feed him points on the PP. Talk up the team-player-ness of the guy. Make sure everyone knows you’re happy to keep him on the team.
I’m not surprised you don’t recognize it. MacT practiced the opposite strategy and got crap for everything he traded because he couldn’t pump and dump effectively.
That’s fantastic. “Jesus Crhist!” “FEENNNNTTOOOONNNNNNN!” I love it.
I think the best part was the slow play and building anticipation up to the actual entertaining part. Very well paced.
Got any more? That was fun.
Depends on your perspective, but even Jimi played bars at one time.
At one club he played, the guitar player who he jammed with stormed off stage afterwards, for being shown up so badly. The guy was out back having a smoke when his manager went out to see what the problem was, and the guy replied, “You didn’t tell me he was that bleeding good.”
Yes, that was a bad night for Clapton.
But I’ve seen and played with people who could hold their own with Jimi, and they never got famous. Let’s hope that Melvis can chime in here with some examples.
MEEEEEEELVIIIIIIIIIIIIIISSS!!!
Jordan,
That clip showed up in a bunch of different places. In general, Fail Army on YouTube is your friend if that’s your brand of humor. Many, many hours have been passed at our house locked on Fail Army.
No you haven’t.
Not unless you’re talking in the same way as John Paul Getty sparring with Jack Dempsey; Getty thinking he’d given the champ a real workout where in reality Dempsey would have toyed with the young whippersnapper.
Bill Parcells: You are what your record says you are.
Yamamoto failed once at the NHL level. You don’t want him to fail twice. So one should not skip steps the second time.
So one should let him light up the AHL before trying the NHL again, so he knows when he gets to the NHL he is ready. If he is ready, he will fill the net in the AHL. Make sure both you and the player know that he is too good for the AHL before you bring him to the NHL again.
And Kassian if one can find a good trade.
For me Talbot has started cold 2 of 3 seasons and it hurt the team a lot. He’s good when he’s on. Montoya has done well when he’s come in, if he’s stable and can carry the load if Talbot has another cold start it could be ok.
If Talbot is in a pattern he’ll play well all next year. Hopefully Montoya has enough track record to trust.
How can you be so absolutely sure of this? Hendrix is one of the greatest guitar players ever, but I knew a guitarist who loved Hendrix and could play everything he did. Didn’t make it because of opportunity, and he played in a couple different bands that were less than the sum of their parts.
Oh, indeed. We have a famous wee bar here in London called Call the Office, where many now-famous bands have played, many times before they were making it big and sometimes after, too. The walls are covered with signed photos of said bands from over the years; even had The Clash at one time, and many others (not just Canadian bands).
It’s not the most spectacular place, is bland and grungy other than said photos, and is sponsored by Pabst so the only beer you can get is Pabst Blue Ribbon. But other than that, you can have fun times there.
Yes, I have. Look, Jimi was great and he was an innovator and that role can never happen again, but there are small time players that could play rings around him today. They’re not going to revolutionize guitar like Jimi did, but that’s not what we’re talking about here. It’s much like hockey players – if you put Gretzky through today’s training systems and junior leagues, he would still be Gretzky, but better.
The guys who grew up studying Jimi can play his stuff forwards and backwards. Think back to when SRV was ripping off Jimi stuff in bars around Texas. The only difference was, Stevie was playing it more cleanly.
I believe Sekera has played right side and if he returns to normal that isn’t a bad top 4. Russell at 3LD isn’t the worst thing. Play the Swedes and Nurse Sekera.
There is some value thinking with Hebig and Benson. If they can recover fully they may have bought low on some good talent. Both missed key parts of their junior careers and that is one way to find undervalued players.
The first part of your comment could have been said about the players I’m comparing him to, that’s the point of the comparison.
And again, he failed at *finishing* at the NHL level and nothing else.
You do not learn to finish at the NHL level in the AHL.There are players who score at the AHL level and not at the NHL level. You can’t determine whether or not he can score at the NHL level any more based on if he scores at the AHL level, than you can based on his 1.5ppg CHL draft year numbers. I said it in my comment, the AHL does not have NHL goaltending and has very little NHL level checking. You can put him in the AHL for the whole season and still have no evidence of whether or not he will finish at the NHL level, regardless of how well he scores.
If he is ready for the NHL, and filling the net in the AHL, then you have wasted games of an NHL impact scorer on a team without enough of them. There is no reason to send a player with his numbers to the AHL automatically on principle, and ruling out another opening 9 games if he earns it through merit in training camp.
This club’s signed RW depth in talent next year is this:
Drai*
Pulju
Yamamoto
Kassian
Pakarinen
Yamamoto will only be 4th or worse on that depth chart if the Oilers have:
-traded Nuge or Klefbom for a RW
-drafted Svechnikov
-signed James Neal or comparable
So unless that happens, you have the non-zero chance of icing a sub-optimal NHL roster if you send down Yamamoto regardless of merit next fall.
He played the right side with Nurse 2 years ago and it was awful – granted abuse was a rookie at the time.
Sekera should stay on the left side baring and emergency.
Nurse == abuse
That is an excellent auto-correct.
Given the numbers that have been shown, if you ran this and let the them gel so I mean give them as much as Babcock gave his guys (granted they were winning) and played guys where they like if possible
Slepy McDavid Yama
Lucic Drai JP
Khaira Nuge Strome
Cags xx Kassian
Klefbom Larsson
Nurse Sekera
Russell Benning
Davidson
Talbot Montoya
That doesn’t look too bad too me assuming everyone shows up healthy and summer trained and doesn’t crap the bed again so badly.
Having a scoring winger would be nice but unless it’s a young guy PC somehow got there is as good a chance of getting a vet that doesn’t do as much as expected as existing players that have run very good metrics hitting norms.
And the vets cost more risky long cap killer contracts with vengeful NMCs. Unless uncle Melnyk steps up with a present but who thinks the Oilers win that trade?
Confidence means a lot and building that would be key so let them play. There is speed and skill there and I think balance of some sort, the only heavy legs being Luc and Strome.
It is not ideal but it costs nothing.
If sideburns step up at least the season after they might have some value in trading.
I highly doubt from what we’ve seen that this usage will happen, at the same time without a GM angel I can’t see how PC trades his way out without self foot shooting. Or another GM unless he has some special kind of talisman.
So now I wonder if a coach can’t get production out of a talent group like that what’s the deal? Gallant now provides a pretty good foil doesn’t he?
Abuse is a different player now and hopefully Scary isn’t.
Great value?? Todd must shop at Whole Foods.
Scungilli Slushy,
Hoffman or Pacioretty would be nice if the Oilers could get them for a song. Slepy isn’t coming back. Big hole on the LW. Gotta get a sniper for Connor!! They can’t bungle this again (can they?)
By following the trail of your logic Beethoven ends up sitting on the street outside a Toronto booking office, busking for quarters.
I’m sorry, but having the ability to mimic someone 40 years after they originated it doesn’t qualify as anything much. There are criminals who can mimic Picasso – sure it’s a form of talent, but it’s not real talent.
That’s true, but the same was true last year. Let’s not assume this GM is a complete failure. The failure was this summer’s lack of NHL level replacement.
For a song, eh?
They don’t call him Pied Piper Pete for no reason…
You make some great points here. The coach should be able to get better results.
Regardless, top six could use a boost. Sacrificing Nuge and his 50 points to find a 60 point man makes no sense. They need to bring someone in. Or bring in a defenceman and trade a d man with a pick to bring someone in for the top six.
If Pacioretty gets traded to this team I’m afraid it’s going to be like when they traded for Vincent Damphousse and you’re wondering…”They used to have Gretzky + Messier and now they’re trying to sell Vincent Damphousse?
I haven’t heard Puliujarvi the song.
If they were available for dirt cheap they would be here already
Thoughts on Vegas in searching for you g prospects?
Given thier large number of draft picks and more to come might they all be arriving too close together? Eva’s may want to part with one in order to delay or stagger thier arrival.
Not sure what is on the Knights shopping list.
Edit: I don’t know who Evacis either
Second edit: or Evacis
Third: I give up
Wilde,
I agree we should slow track Benson, but I believe he has a HUGE untapped upside. The massive time lost due to injuries is the x-factor. He has late bloomer legit top 3-6 potential.
Yamamoto also needs to be slow tracked. But due to his size. He needs all his man strength to be successful. I will add that though he showed a lot of promise with his 9 games as an Oiler, he was very disappointing at the WJC. Poor offensive production, did not showcase his skating and was knocked down way too often.
Great potential for both, lots of miles to go though to develop them the right way.
Cup rings.
On a side note, one of my high school social studies teachers uncle was a drummer in a band with Hendrix in high school. He had a few interesting stories from his uncle he shared with us. By far my favourite teacher ever, made a lasting impression on me.
There is so much that I disagree with in this post I don’t quite know where to begin.
They traded Hall because he works better on his own line? How about we start there
Or Eberle takes too long to get his shot off. That’s why he has more goals than any Oiler this year?
I understand on a conceptual level maybe Yamamoto will only be able to score at the NHL level if he gets stronger, but because of the fact that he got so many chances in tight, his size doesn’t seem to be a limiting factor in getting shots and plays off in highly contested areas.
This is the lineup I’d like to see, except fire Todd, let Cags loose, and have Strome as 4C with a FA/trade target as 3RW and Slepyshev as 4LW.
——–
How much would you guys trade to move up to #3 or #4 if MTL, OTT, or FLA beat us in the tank war?
I would consider Benson+Jones+say #5 for #3 to select one of Zadina, Svechnikov, or Tkachuk.
Khaira-McDavid-Yamamoto
Lucic-Drai-Svechnikov
Cammaleri-Nuge-Ho-Sang
Slepyshev-Strome-Kassian
Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Russell
Sekera-Benning
Auvitu
Talbot
Montoya
Passable D lineup, and not a single line that would make me want to look away.
Drai and Puju also started their Draft +1(or is 2?) in the AHL .. I would be happy if both Yammy and Benson started in AHL.
No player has ever been “over developed” & certainly 1 year in the AHL can’t hurt.
Benson needs reps. He may need 2 years in the AHL to hone his game.
IMO: Yammy could use a year also to plaay against men and adjsut to the Pro Game.
Drai and Puju were also physically very big and strong. Cant say that for Benson or Yammy.
Wilde,
Wow. Heck no to moving up 2 spots for that cost. In fact, I’d rather move down if anything.
Wilde,
“I would consider Benson+Jones+say #5 for #3 to select one of Zadina, Svechnikov, or Tkachuk.” – NO
I dont see enough of a lift to part with 2 quality prospects. This team needs more prospects, not less.
if PC actually does things right, we should add an extra 2nd and 3rd/4th …
So we MIGHT HAVE:
#10
#41
#51
ETC ….
3 picks in the Top 50. Pick them. Develop them. It’s a CRAZY Concept!
Benson and Jones will both be in the AHL for next season and likely the one after that.
The 3 wingers are NHL ready, It’s possible that they deliver 2 impact NHL seasons before either of our current guys deliver a single one between them, on top of having incomparably lower ceilings.
Both of them were recalled very early into their draft+2 season, and performed in a way that it points in the direction that they didn’t actually need to start down there. Waste of man-games by skill forwards.
Nice post. My only quibble; I wouldn’t look back on the way the Oilers developed any player. The players who succeed here do it in spite of the way they are developed.
Yes, but you are forgetting about Pick 5. That player may be just as ready as 2,3 or 4.
Teams need cheap talent in the Cap era. #5, Benson and Jones offer 3 players who could play on their ELC’s in the next couple years.
“Great Value” is actually the in-house brand of Walmart products. Maybe the coach should *puts on sunglasses* rollback Letestu’s icetime. YEEEEAAAAHHHH!!!!
We don’t need his projected 64 points this season… hmph
Again. No prospect has been OVER DEVELOPED. If you consider playing 2 months in the AHL a waste over the course of a 15 year career, well so be it.
I would argue one of the Best reasons to send them down is to Motivaye them to get recalled and stick with the Big Club.
Gifting high picks an NHL Roster spot is Folly.
Bahahajaa . +1
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Eberle is a good player. But he has that many goals because of how much space Barzal creates for him. The only player that can create that much space for him is Mcdavid and that would be against the toughs. If Tavares leaves and Barzal moves up into his spot with his wingers the Eberle pendulum will swing hard the other way
I’m not arguing that it hurts the player to play them in the AHL, I’m arguing it hurts the club by icing a sub-optimal lineup.
All of the wingers are gone by pick 5 in this hypothetical, which means you’re picking one of the defensemen, are any of those going to be impact NHL defensemen straight out of draft? Most elite prospect defensemen have still taken one extra year before the NHL. (Ekblad, and one other that’s slipping my mind are the exceptions)
Who is getting ahead of themselves? The comment was ridiculous. I never said Eberle was great, but to say he doesn’t work with McDavid because he takes too long to get his shot off is ridiculous. No doubt he is a complementary winger who needs a Nuge or Barzal or McDavid as his centre to produce.
You’re acting like I said he was amazing. All I said was the poster’s assessment was out to lunch.
Did not know that. Even worse! Walmart is Pronger-land (or used to be).
Eberle is on pace for 27 goals. He has already scored that many goals on 2 previous seasons, and even if he were still on Edmonton, and wasn’t playing with McDavid, he has shown well with RNH in the past.
Question: Do we have any numbers for Eberle playing as Draisatl’s RW??
Wilde,
I think this team needs as many bullets in the prospect pipeline as possible. Does not make sense to move two of the team’s top 5 prospects just to move up 2 slots to me.
If they are at 5 and the wingers are gone and they rate the D all equally they should move back a few slots and add another 2nd.
If they get a 2nd for Maroon they can pick something like 8th, 36th, 45th, 50th.
That’s pretty great.
I think the increased floor and ceiling of the winger could represent a better ‘bullet in chamber’.
Since the top 3 pick is ‘can’t miss’, in the scenario that only one of Benson or Jones delivers to potential makes or breaks this trade, and neither Benson or Jones are sure things for the NHL ever, let alone soon, I think it’s worth it.
The defensemen is also not a certainty. One of those guys is going to be Hayden Fleury, Ryan Murphy.
I’m not married to the idea, I would obviously pull the trigger with no second thought if you can get it done for any less than Bensons and Jones, but the pricepoint of both is where I really start thinking, and that’s why I like it as a discussion point.
Was directed to the fan base in general. People are looking at his numbers and thinking he would put up the same numbers. Isles play all out offense and move the puck well
Okay, since you quoted me it seemed like it was directed at my comment.
If you go back and read the original comment I was referencing, there’s some pretty interesting hot takes in there, beginning with “they dealt Hall because he needs to drive his own line”
So true.
but the team wouldn’t be just giving up two of their top prospects (for an upper echelon prospect), they’d also be giving up another upper echelon prospect. The team would be giving up 3 prospects for 1 and there is the potential that the player at #5 is every bit as valuable, if not more, than the player picked at #3.
I don’t think the projected gap between the picks is large enough in this case.
Not true at all with respect to Puljijarvi – from numerous accounts, he was tasked with working on multiple part of his game (non-offensive time skills) such as stops/starts, gaps, angles, etc. and, from accounts, he worked hard and improved in those areas.
Its impossible to know for sure but his AHL time earlier this season seems to have been quite valuable.
Really?
Nurse wasn’t developed properly?
Like Nurse, Eberle was sent back to junior for two full seasons after being drafted.
E. Johnson, Doughty, Bogosian, Hedman, Larsson, Jones, Ristolainen, Ekblad, Hanifin, and Chychrun were the high-profile and skilled defensemen who made the NHL immediately post-draft (1st rounders since 2006). All mostly very effective, too. Yes, even Bogosian.
This is the logic behind the trade:
30% chance of a middle six NHL winger
30% chance of a 4/5 NHL defenseman
70% chance of a top 4 NHL defenseman
for
90% chance of a top six NHL winger
Yeah it is impossible to know, and it’s my opinion that they sent him down as more of a psychological challenge than an evaluation of his current NHL readiness, considering his similarity in on ice numbers from last year to this year.
NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),
Yeah sorry. Sometimes it’s easier to quote the last quote than dig through the batch.
I am happy for Eberle he’s gone. He needs to play with players that can move the puck and play with speed to make room for him. We just offered him whack-a-puck and dig out pucks from corners and that is his weakness and the fan base turned on him until they realized how much we actually needed him. Now he can live his life without getting chased out of town by the mob
I don’t consider defensemen drafted in the neighbourhood of 10 years or more ago to be good prospect comparables, which rules out Johnson, Doughty and Hedman.
Larsson struggled in his first few years, Chychrun got injured, Hanifin and Jones were sheltered heavily.
I have something I wrote about defensemen comps this morning:
Ekblad: straight to the NHL, top pairing
Hanifin: straight to the NHL, 3rd pairing
Provorov: 1 year junior, then top pairing NHL (stud #1D imo)
Werenski: 1 year big ten(same team as Hughes) then top pairing NHL(stud top pairing guy)
Chabot: 1 year junior, dozen games AHL then NHL top 4
Sergachev: 1 year junior, then NHL top pairing
McAvoy: 1 year BU, then NHL top pairing
Chychrun: straight to the NHL
Girard: 1 year junior, NHL(same size as Hughes)
As for 2017, you can quote me that Heiskanen and Makar will be everyday NHLers next year barring injury.
Wilde,
Seth Jones straight to NHL as well. Now a legit stud.
I used to have arguments with woodguy version 1.0 about who would be a better d man Seth Jones for me or Ryan Ellis for him. We both win
For the Athletic: Oilers draft 2018: Draft and follow
https://theathletic.com/226636/2018/01/30/lowetide-the-edmonton-oilers-return-to-the-draft-and-college-approach/
What about trading Maroon for a good prospect who already has a year of AHL experience?
Seth Jones got the same treatment as Hanifin: sheltered heavily on a team stacked with defensemen negative gf% player, not what I’d consider an impact NHL season.
+1. Good Stuff.
You just stated the reason it was awful and then declared that Sekera should never play right side because of those results. Doesn’t make sense to use those results to determine the potential success of that pairing today.
Nurse was a struggling rookie trying to play 1st pairing minutes. He is a totally different player now.
Sekera looked real good playing right side with Chara in the World Cup. Looked to me like he was carrying the pairing. So declaring he couldn’t do it with this years version of Nurse seems like a pretty bold position.
Is your argument that unless they can make an impact in year one it’s better to pass? We’re in a spot where we are trading Hall for Larsson when we could have just as well drafted Larsson instead of Nuge–and Larsson took forever to develop and he still isn’t an impact top pair D, he is a solid #2, so he isn’t even a good example. But the League values D-men with stud potential very highly.
Each year every kid that gets drafted is the next “xxxxx”; plays like “xxxxxxx” …..
Every year only 3 – 6 kids play in the NHL, andonly 2 or 3 actually contribute.
The odds the the Oilers get a player who starts the year in Edm is prob 5%. This asumes they pick 7th – 12th.
Dahlin is a sure thing to make the jump. Outside of that, nobody knows.
Sure, both good. Woodguy with his numbers, was also iffy on trading Nuge for Jones because he wasn’t sure based on what the numbers said at the time that Jones was going to be top pair. The eye test in this case said otherwise–one could see the talent and skill set was there. Note, this isn’t to criticize Woodguy in any way shape or form–just that it’s a little hard to project the future for young D, I think.
We knew Ellis was going to take some time due to his size but he was always dynamite in junior and the WJCs. Nashville was patient with him. I mean, they really are a D factory along with Anaheim.
1) Where do those percentages come from? Are those just what you’ve come up with?
2) From multiple accounts, your opinion is not correct – accounts from the GM, the NHL coach and the AHL coach.
I wouldn’t say I stated “the” reason, a reason, sure.
I think its bold to read too much into the smallest of sample sizes of the World Cup where he played the girth side with a hall of fame caliber defender (granted he is declining).
I’m not sure that is enough evidence to go in to next season counting on Sekera at a top 4 d-man on his off-side.
Cam Fowler? Zach Bogosian? Drew Doughty? Seth Jones? Jakob Chychrun? Noah Hanifin? Adam Larsson? Victor Hedman? Dmitri Kulikov? Fowler, Chychrun, Hanifin and Kulikov all picked #5 or later.
This is the part of the argument I’m referencing.
Is it possible that an early emergence, ie impact NHL seasons while we still have everyone under their current contracts, is worth the trade up?
I’m of the mind that it’s possible, that having two ELC impact wingers(Yamamoto+Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk) shores up the entire forward core into championship calibre starting NEXT year, because then you have money to keep Nuge.
Khaira-McDavid-Yamamoto
Lucic-Drai-Svechnikov
Cammaleri-Nuge-Ho-Sang
Slepyshev-Strome-Kassian
Watching San Jose at Pittsburgh. I’ve been banging the drum on this for a while now but I think, depending on what he costs as a FA, Patric Hornqvist on RW is exactly what this team needs.
Works hard, crashes the net. Good hands. Like Ryan Smyth-lite. Warrior. Has some fire in his belly as well. Good for 25-25 and tons of hustle. Right shot to boot.
Funny thing, these are two of the exceptions. And there will always be exceptions. I can also make a strong case that Nurse should have been in the AHL. We had him on the first pair in the NHL in his rookie year. Seriously? I think he has succeeded despite being mishandled.
Our development of JP should go in some how-to book as an example of what not to do. The kid spent half the year last season in the press box or playing under 8 minutes a game. We actually send him to the minors this year, where he proceeds to play very meh. We recall him anyway and he still manages to look good up here. Good on JP. This team certainly hasn’t done him any favours.
I give this team a lot of passes that others don’t. Their development program, or lack of one, is embarrassing. I want to believe. I want them to be better. But Yammer up here for 9 games was wrong. We wait to see how they handle these players next year.
This proves a larger point. Even the smartest hockey minds don’t know where a prospect will plateau. From the the time a player hits the draft radar; his future is Loaded with uncertainty. The %’s don’t lie.
Wilde,
Hmm.
Not a fan of line 1 for next year. What are we giving up to get Ho-Sang? Strome will make too much to be our 4C, I think. Lots of question marks there.
1) They’re the arbitrary percentages to help you understand where the logic of the trade is coming from.
2) I don’t take the canned musings of executives at face value. Especially when there are countless other incentives that they would never state openly, challenging the player, burying bonuses, etc.
Edit: also, if we are taking them at face value, Chiarelli did explicitly challenge Jesse, he said ‘Yamamoto has outshone Puljujvarvi’ or something to that effect. So even though my argument was over interpretation, the actual words were there too.
Maroon for Ho-Sang. Doug Weight only has two LWers he likes playing right now, everyone else gets caved in CF and GF, and the lineblender comes out.
Yes, but unlike you, I’m not sure that Sekera COULDN’T do it.
Also if you watched that World Cup you should have remembered that Chara looked BAD. Looked nothing like a Hall of Famer in that tournament.
I believe Nurse did start his first pro season in the AHL but was called up around the 10 game mark due to injury. He played a large part of the season on the 3rd pairing and was having a nice season and was then forced up the depth chart due to injury. No, he shouldn’t have been on the first pairing with Sekera but that wasn’t the development plan – it was more forced due to circumstances.
NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),
There was no criticism in there. Ellis had some numbers, Jones had very little so you really had to squint. Both turned out great. You can’t fault Ellis for getting hurt or Nashville being really well and being on a team with Josi and PK
I was about to write my 1 000 000th Yamamoto post in reply to this.
I am going to look like an absolute clown if he doesn’t pan out.
Yeah, I know you weren’t criticizing. I was clarifying that I was not criticizing Woodguy’s take at the time on Jones (did not say he was bad, just that we aren’t sure yet he will be great) Sometimes the eye test is helpful for projecting what a D-man COULD be in the future.
Out-of-town scoreboard very unkind to the Oilers. Talbot’s hopeful statements aside, we’re playing for roster spots for next year and for pride.
Not at allLOL. I know exactly what you would say. Who knows though with prospects.
Don’t forget draft position,
groan
A little schadenfreude in Calgary at least. That was an Oilersesque collapse.
love it
Brennan Klak (@nhlupdate) has a few tweets from the Oilers season ticket holder event tonight with Chiarelli. This was the most substantive one:
Brennan Klak
@nhlupdate
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“There are teams willing to pay prospects ready to play or near ready and it may involve a UFA (out the door) here and there” – Chiarelli
7:46 PM – 30 Jan 2018
I assume this means Maroon. None of our other UFA’s have the cache to garner a ready to play prospect.
Anyone know if anyone is in attendance tonight and will post more stuff here?
Oh man that was delightful! Just watched the last 2 mins on replay. That’s as pleasing as an Oiler victory for me. Sweet schadenfreude!
Keeping in mind that Griff was a ready to play prospect.
It is well known that I “blame” the coach far more than the GM, and It took me only a couple of months to identify the limitations of the coach which has led to many of the GM’s bad roster adjustments.
Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle faced the toughs with Pouliot for half a season when Hall go hurt and did fine (with mostly an AHL defense and goaltender behind them).
Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle faced the toughs all the years they were together, and Eberle was basically as productive in all of them as he is this year.
For what it’s worth, just read on Habs blog that Patches trade imminent. They were speculating trade to the Blues for Thomas and Kyrou. Not sure they have the cap space for deal like that though.
Not sure if Tkachuk is NHL ready. His numbers don’t scream immediate impact. Pronman doesn’t even have him in his top ten.
I think you hate Tmac too much. Chia deserves every bit of hate he gets. No need to make his stupidity the fault of Todd.
Thank you Roiller Coastlers for the ride of my life the last few years. I can resist any team in NHL except the temptation of you!
Cheers Peter – you have made the team bigger, stronger and more likely to lose big and win big more often. You got us to the playoffs last year and we even won one more round than Toronto did….so over all you are still in my good books.
Cheers Todd- you have made the line changes with an unbalanced team. I wish I could tip the ice like I did when I played that hockey game where you spin the plastic players round and round or when I was a pinball wizard. Maybe we can’t fix out right handed problems so why not tilt the ice or pay extra to the Zamboni to shave the ice a few mm higher on one side. Remember the story of the king that wanted the whole world paved in leather so he could walk easily…. why not just flip it and change the ice or the skates?
Cheers Lowetide- you made me get the song Razor’s Edge by ACDC stuck in my head. Was just walking down AC/DC lane here in Melbourne filled with art, graffiti, and a tribute to Malcolm Young. Is there a lane dedicated to any band in any of the cities you have ever lived in. Well Melbourne AC/DC lane…is something I think you might like!
In an alternate universe like the current Star Trek Discovery TV show–Oilers have rocked and kicked the last 10 years. Oilers didn’t win anything in 80s and have Dynasty today because we drafted Sydney Crosby and flipped Malkin for Ovechkin. At same time McDavid now plays for the Pens which have been inconsistent for ages.
The Oilers SUCK. The Oilers KICK. We get CK when we are playing Oilers scrabble. Depends on whether we are playing at home or on road or who is playing. Depends what is in the bag and who is putting in the letters. Maybe it ain’t Peter or Todd or McDavid. Maybe someone else owns the game?
So the Oilers are rarely 100%, never predictable and always a great trigger for passionate discussion. Can you imagine following a team that is .500 all the time and wins at home often with defensive holdem stickem hockey.
I will take the story of inconsistently travelling all over the map > staying in one boring place anyday.
Thank you Roiller Coastlers for the ride of my life the last few years. I can resist any team in NHL except the temptation of you!
Last day off before game day.
Thoughts are with Larsson and is family.
Go Oilers!
I keep the #5 and the two A-level prospects and draft Wahlstrom.
I agree. Him and Grabner would make excellent UFA signings this summer, but what would it take to sign them? From the verbal out of Pittsburgh, fans there feel Horqvist’s cap hit is too high. Would he take less than his current contract this summer? Grabner’s current contract is $1.65M x 2, at 31 would he garner more than $3M x 3? You’d have to hope the NYR magic comes with him…
Game has changed a hell of a lot since then. Now with emphasis on speed Eberle isn’t big enough or fast enough to make room for himself
Was wondering when someone was going to call me on this.
That’s why I was using Svechnikov in my examples, I’m not certain Brady is as good as Matt was. Being an impact player at 17 at BU is impressive, but Matt’s NHLe was gaudy.
This is intelligent, but I wouldn’t have Benson OR Jones as A-level prospects among young players outside the NHL.
It’s also playing the long game, I think Wahlstrom might end up with more than a year at Harvard.
Eberle’s pretty quick. It’s how he finds space. He doesn’t burn guys long, but he’s sneaky swift for sure.
But Mcdavid is fast enough and Draisaitl is big enough. So… You know…
Yes thats why he does well with fast skilled players and defensemen that can pass him the puck. All we can offer him is whack-a-puck. Half of our players you could replace their hockey sticks with croquet mallets and you wouldnt notice a difference
Yeah the lamest part about watching this team right now is how few of our players are fun to watch with the puck. There’s like 5-6 guys that I feel okay with having the puck, everyone else I’ll be surprised if they make a clean play.