G51 2017-18: Lightning at Oilers
The Oilers are about to hit the highway and take it to the limit. Between tonight and April 7, Edmonton will play 32 games in 62 days (if my fingers and toes are telling the truth). That’s a lot of work with not much rest, and this Edmonton Oilers team doesn’t have much depth in a few very important places. On the other hand, maybe they find a rhythm and warm to the California sun.
THE ATHLETIC!
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- New Lowetide: Oilers draft history and the OHL
- Lowetide: Oilers badly need a boring but effective summer
- Black Dog: Lessons Learned
- Jonathan Willis: Is the Ryan Strome experiment nearing an end?
- Jonathan Willis: How effective is Leon without Connor?
- Corey Pronman: Mid-Season draft rankings
- Lowetide: Do you trust Peter Chiarelli?
- Lowetide: Oilers draft and college returns
- Lowetide: Central Scouting and where the Oilers shop for talent
I LIKE YOU, LLOYD. I ALWAYS LIKED YOU, YEAR OVER YEAR
- February 2016: 1-0-0, goal differential +4 (2 points)
- February 2017: 0-1-0, goal differential -2
- February 2018: 0-0-1, goal differential -1 (1 point)
- February 4, 2016: Edmonton 7, Ottawa 2 (Source)
- February 3, 2017: Carolina 2, Edmonton 1 (Source)
Interesting start to February both years, the 2015-16 team had a nice little run going and the 2016-17 team was stumbling out of the gate. I thought the Oilers were inconsistent in the Colorado game but there were some good things, too. Tonight will be a big challenge.
AFTER 50, YEAR OVER YEAR
- Oilers 15-16: 19-26-5, goal differential -30 (43 points)
- Oilers 16-17: 27-15-8, goal differential +18 (62 points)
- Oilers 17-18: 22-24-4, goal differential -24 (48 points)
- February 2, 2016: Edmonton 5, Columbus 1 (Source)
- January 26, 2017: Edmonton 4, San Jose 1 (Source)
Edmonton has settled in now as a team that could finish with 75-85 points, in my opinion. There’s always a chance the Oilers go on a ridiculous run but it hasn’t been building or anything. This team is properly represented by their won-loss record.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY
- At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
- On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
- Current results: 0-0-1, one point in one game
The Pacific Division awaits with three monster road trips during this month, first one begins later this week. In the six games to come versus California, Edmonton would have to do massive damage in order to poke a hole in the standings. If there is a run to come, it will arrive much too late.
OSCAR KLEFBOM
He’s coming on now, at least to my eye. In Oscar’s last three games, he has 15 shots on goal, including seven in the Colorado contest. He had a terrific game with Matt Benning in possession and his Corsi Rel is heading north:
- Darnell Nurse 2.52
- Oscar Klefbom 0.12
- Brandon Davidson 0.12
- Matt Benning 0.06
- Andrej Sekera -0.96
- Adam Larsson -1.27
- Kris Russell -4.21
- (NaturalStatTrick)
Klefbom does a little better via Fenwick, as does Russell (of course). I’d be fine bringing back the whole damn bunch, but a 2RHD is badly needed. Jeff Petry would be a fantastic addition, ladies and men.
Prediction: Jesse Puljujarvi will score a goal with his tongue. The NHL will disallow it on review. Edmonton will riot like Montreal after Richard was suspended. It will be the single most uniting event for all Oiler fans since the 80s.
— WheatNOil (@WheatNOil) February 2, 2018
Jesse Puljujarvi is a fine young winger and for me not giving him a strong center is poor form. If he kicks in some goals and ends this season with 15 (or so), we can safely project him as a regular. If he waltzes through the final 30 games with a meager total, then we cannot be certain of his success on a scoring line next season. Hell’s bells man, this is basic development of young players! I’m going to write on this subject over at The Athletic this week. It’s a big damned story.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy, fun show filled with singing and debauchery, just like any normal Eagles fan would have it. At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:
- Pierre Lebrun, The Athletic. Trade deadline is coming and there are tons of rumors.
- Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Super Bowl! Plus Oilers play tonight!
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Fletcher Cox is my favorite football player, I’m so happy for him. I’m also thrilled for all Eagles fans, whether they joined the group in 1940 or 1960 or 1975 and beyond. I am so damned happy, my teams haven’t won a lot since 1990 and this is fabulous. It’s difficult to put it all into words, but Tommy Lawlor at Iggles Blitz summed it up perfectly:
- The 2017 Eagles won the Super Bowl. But that win was for all the Eagles…Harold, Jaws, Reggie, Westy, Dawk, Trent and even Big Red. Vermeil’s guys. Gang Green. The fun 1995 team. The 2002 Eagles, who won with 3 different starting QBs. The 2004 team. The 2008 team. The Michael Vick Experience of 2010. All of those players were like ghosts, sitting on the Eagles sideline and doing anything they could to help the Eagles pull that game out.
- Source
This has been a very fun game to watch! Who are these guys?
special teams is a thing.
Maybe the sabres are so boring they lul them to sleep?
Sorry, I misread you – that was 100% intentional.
If Connor finds a shot that can finish like we saw, in the words of Christopher Walken, ‘watch out!’.
Who are these guys bobblehead night.
Vasilevskiy out – he made some 5 bell saves tonight.
Tampa isn’t on a b2b. Crapping the bed tho.
Haha
Ugh, which d-man gave that puck away? Klef!
You kinda got the feeling that Gourde wasn’t going to be denied a goal tonight. Hopefully he settles down now. The maniac.
So, McDavid has decided to shoot tonight…..
Did Russel own goal that?
Did that qualify as “keeping McDavid to the outside”?
The weakest part of Connor’s game is breakaways
I would have said faceoffs, but yeah. He’s not finishing many breakaways lately
Even worse! Or better for Oilers. Got my shed mixed up.
Scored on that breakaway!
Sorry, what? lol
So happy he proved me wrong
Rocket skates!
I figured it was time for one to go!
And as if on cue….
That’s as pretty a hattrick as you are ever gonna see.
I think the ref just asked McDavid if he should check upstairs.
So about McDavid learning to finish on those breakaways…?
That’s hat trick number 2 for his young career. Bless this man.
*edit: make that number 3
That would have been a big goal.
Except you know, the first 50 games.
Weakest part of Gretzky’s. Might not be Connor’s for long after that!
lol!!
Man, McDavid on another level than everyone else on the ice tonight.
Nah, he’s shooting 10% just like overall.
Tampa playing the 8th game of a monster, multi-week road trip. Clearly gassed at this point and not the usual elite team we’ve come to expect this year, so we have to take this seemingly dominant game by the Oilers against the League’s best with a grain of salt.
That said, we’ll take it! It’s been a long, difficult season and if they can build on this one and gain some confidence to at least put together a respectable finish to the season, that would be a good result from a bad year.
Embarrassing the best team in the league
Let’s go boys !!
Chia for gm of the year lol !!
Let’s not forget we missing Rnh Larsson and Kass
Not small pieces
Man, they play so rarely the last couple of weeks I completely forget to even check in and see how they’re doing, even though I’ve just been sitting around here and could’ve watched…and based on score it appears I would have actually enjoyed it! Sigh, Stupid schedule.
Let’s see 3 goals on 8 shots. 10%? Does not compute. What doesn’t compute? McDavid, who passes too much, has 8 shots in a game. 🙂
Slepy is eating Kassian’s virus ridden lunch. Other than the pugilistiking.
I get a laugh every time they say Koekkoek
Refs doing ref things…
Great play by Nurse.
Not sure what Khaira was thinking there. They’re gonna call that with that score every single time.
Factor in that during the 8 game road trip they also hosted an All-Star game that might have otherwise been a break, but many of their key players had media obligations and were playing in the games themselves. Pretty ideal situation to meet the best team in the league, but credit to the Oilers for taking full advantage.
Drai scores an ugly one – might be 5 points for 97.
Some nights the puck just wants to go home
Nope, that’s Connor’s 4th.
Everything’s coming up Milhouse!
Safeway calling their insurers……..
Tampa gotta pull goal now so Connor gets the 5th and sobeys has to fork over $1M
So…if I explained that that isn’t actually luck…would anyone get what I’m saying. Meh, enjoy the ride.
And someone tell 97 about Safeway Score and Win.
Bit of a “statement game” for C McD tonight.
LOL classic simpsons…
Premiums might be a little higher next year.
Because they can’t have been more than a 100 bucks a game since the Cup run.
That goal resulted in the biggest laughing fit I’ve had so far this year. Tears. Pure comedy.
Safeway Million bucks…
Is the Safeway score and win still a thing?? Could use a million bucks.
How do you like the way he rocks and the way he rolls?
I get a laugh every time they say pugilistiking.
Solid game tonight.
A “what the season might have been” game.
Did Safeway pay off McClellan to bench McDavid in the final 2 minutes?
Nah – rolling 4 lines, as he should.
Sobeys execs shit themselves tonight. If he scored the 5th I’d probably be fired tomorrow to make up for the $1M in losses lol.
Sad I missed the game for work. Way to fucking go Connor McDavid. Legend!!
I know, I know, just joking around : ]
Where does this game leave McDavid in the scoring race?
Oh, Stauffer just said 3rd.
Drai and Cammy wind up with assists on the 4th McDavid goal? Home town scorekeeper.
6 points behind Kucherov.
With two fewer games played I think. Though MacKinnon has even fewer games played with the same number of points.
They pay TMac $250K to bench any player that has 4 goals.
Kind of like Eddie Shore in his coaching days when he’d bench guys who were one goal away from a bonus.
5-1-1 in their last 7. Hooray.
Sadly..Jan 11th…the day before this 7 game stretch…we were 12 points out of the playoffs. As of tonight, 11 points out. Just so damn hard to make up distance.
California road trip beckons.
R R childrens learning?
5 points behind, actually. It’s going to come down to Kucherov, McDavid and if Malkin is healthy, him, I think. Crosby had his huge run. McDavid is just starting his.
Malkin when healthy is just a machine as well.
Let’s try to figure out what Domi is worth. He was drafted 12th overall. He’s had seasons of 18, 9 and now 3 goals. So what’s the value for this? I’m not giving up a first rounder for Domi. So now you’re looking at a second rounder. What does it take for the Oilers to get Domi?
Caleb Jones?
Yakupov only got a 3rd and he was first overall and had better seasons.
Caggulia. Jones. Draft picks
It won’t come cheap
I don’t think Yakupov ever looked as good as Domi did in his first season. Don’t know what’s happened to Domi although I think he missed a lot of time last year with a broken hand. But 3 goals this year is pretty bad.
Man, where has THAT team been all year!? In general, played really well up & down the line-up. Connor was of course, exceptional…he was truly “feeling it”. They’re a fun bunch to watch when they play like they did tonite. Nice.
BTW, as far as I know, Sobeys wouldn’t pay a dime more than the annual cost of an insurance policy. If someone does happen to win the million, the insurance company pays out.
Dream on dreamers . . . Go Oilers!
New Improved Darkness,
Haha,
Honey futures were low at the time,
Due to having to move more darn snow, I only got to see the end of the second and the third.
In site of all the adversity of this season, I will still say that I have and will enjoy every single minute McDavid plays for the Oilers. I was lucky to see Gretzky and I feel very fortunate to see a player like McDavid.
Simply amazing!
I said Schleppy and 3rd earlier. Msybe that’s not Enuf. Maybe Strome and 4 th. he’s relatively cheap and a C. They probably don’t trade him within the division though.
Particularly noteworthy is McD’s big game sense. He took the NHL’s number 1 ranked team and single handedly made mincemeat out of them.
Kind of like the 180 degree opposite of MacT’s chokebag squads, carefully selected to weed out all forms of talent(Rob Schremp cough Jani Rita cough)
what kind of bees tho?
Strome is a “material” player.
Slepy is a tweener.
It’s got to take more than that me thinks.
Mute point though as Domi is reportedly not for sale.
Don’t forget the “Best player outside of the NHL” Jiri Dopita.
I think we all found the reason for the “Outside of the NHL” part.
Couldn’t watch the first two periods of the game so I did later tonight. Two things stood out in the first period.
JP played really really well. He was moving fast, laying out some hits and setting up linemates, who couldn’t covert.
My whipping boy of choice was at it again. Benning was a flat out turnover machine in the dzone. He rarely wins battles and if he manages to move the puck out of the dzone it’s simply a random event. Too often, he just dumps the puck without actually looking for a teammate.
Also, Stralman hit the Drake right in the numbers and sent him flying head first
into the boards during that last PP. He should have got a penalty. Guys get suspended with that kind of hit.
Jay and Dan led out with ConOil over the Leafs game.
Yakupov’s rookie season was superior to Domi’s rookie season.
Over the last month, absolutely correct.
I like the chemistry that Strome seems to be finding with Caggulia – not sure if that will last but they are currently forming 2/3 of a nice third line. Even doing well on the cycle.
Slepy had a solid game last night – that fourth line with Pakarinan and Letestu have some very nice o-zone shifts.
Watch Kessel surprise us all.
Fundamentally disagree. I shoot left and played RD for years and never had any issues moving the puck north.
I’m going to assume that there is a little less time and space and the game is a little faster where Russell is playing – no offence.
I’m not sure it can really be denied that its tougher to move the puck as a d-man if playing the offside unless, of course, the player is a better and quicker transitioner of the puck on the backhand which is never the case including with any of the Oiler d-men.
Terence and Philip are national treasures.
Leon Draisaitl now has 45 points in 47 games and is plus 13 on a team that is a huge negative in goal differential (although much of that is special teams).
He’s spent about half his time away from McDavid as a center (and, generally when playing center, with wingers that are not established in the top 6 in the NHL, some not even established in the NHL) and with like 5 points on the PP (i.e. almost all at evens).
Leon Draisaitl is a line driver and verging on an elite power forward in the NHL. He is dominant at evens.
So happy to have him locked up for 7 more years.
Sssshhhhhhhh…..
Did you not get the memo? He is overpaid and could not fetch a 4th rounder unless we retain salary!
No one complaining about that contract now. Wait in two years. He’ll be a top 5 centre in this league. He’s going to be a beast in a completely different way than McDavid.
…As loosely as it can be described I always gravitated toward the left side of whatever and ended up playing L Defence with a L side shot. If I had any talent I might have been good.
Is playing L defence, with a L handed shot considered to be normal? I was actually a pretty incredible goal suck playing L wing lol; always prepared to lay on the lumber, until they started hitting me back : p
This team is sooooooo close to greatness. Just need a couple wingers and a RHD. They have the Cs and then some, and some real nice pieces on defence. Those are the toughest pieces to acquire. They’re just missing a couple elements.
Something has to give with the transition game though. Even in such a good game last night, it was craptacular. I was hating on Benning earlier, but they were all bad. Maybe it’s coaching. I have no idea.
I was weird, lol. Or am, I guess.
I am a Right Shot and Right Handed (Left Glove) in mostly anything (bat, golf, football etc.) and am Goofy. I think generally (statistically) Canadians are Right Handed but shoot left, catch right or left, but bat left.
I did try kicking balls and throwing left to try to train up my ambidextrous side. Wrote with my left for 2 years in High School but I’ve lost that now.
Would prefer RW but Left Defence, oddly enough. Backhand better than my wrister, though.
I’m not detracting from Leon’s ability in any way here, but your first paragraph is a misrepresentation – you need to show the splits. Draisaitl with McDavid is scoring at 3.17/60 (5×5), without is at 2.04/60. That number puts him at about 40th in the league for centers, hardly an “elite” numbers. For reference, he’s producing at about the same rate as Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Larkin, Radek Faksa, Derek Grant and Lars Eller.
Also, you state that he’s “plus 13 on a team that is a huge negative in goal differential (although much of that is special teams)” . His GF% without McDavid is 46.67% which is about average on the team. He is not keeping his head is above water at 5×5 like your stats seem to show.
Interestingly, McDavid’s GF% with Draisaitl is 69.44 % and without is 51.35%, which makes it look like McLellan’s decision to keep them together is the right one, as Draisaitl compliments McDavid very well. They’re dynamite together, but apart McDavid is average and Draisaitl below average.
I suppose if Leon had the correct wingers this may be different, but he isn’t beating the comp with the current roster construct.
2.04 P/60 and, when he’s played center, he’s been playing with the likes of a struggling Ryan Strome, Drake Caggulia, Jussi Jokinen, etc.
That is a fantastic number given who he’s carried around during his time at center.
Top 5C?
McDavid, Crosby, Malkin, Eichel, Mackinnon, Barkov, Matthews, Seguin, Bergeron, Matthews…
gonna be tough to be Top 5 and that’s no slight to Leon.
It’s a good number. Wouldn’t go so far as to say “fantastic.” Credit to Leon he hasn’t been a beast for much of this year and his play has been inconsistent, yet he is still at a PPG. Then again, far more players this year are at a PPG so that number is less impressive.
When he is on his horse and moving his feet he is a handful.
He has a very good chance to cover the bet on the later years of his contract. He is a great player with room to grow. That in and of itself does not mean that he was not overpaid in his early RFA years (ie right now). No RFA before he and McDavid ever made this much under the new CBA.
After the first three, he could definitely be lumped in to the 2nd group with all those other players – some of them are still developing, so is Leon.
Those Matthews brothers………
NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),
I continue to posit that its a fantastic number given the talent and established level of the wingers he’s played with.
Ok, so it’s 1AM here and I am tired and I repeated myself. So what. I am soooo sorry. Point stands.
And i continue to disagree with you. No slight to Leon. I still think he has another gear or two in him and he is still putting up solid even strength box cars. We’ve seen him be better (and I don’t just mean his playoffs last year). He had a very good game yesterday
Yeah, and if you read what I wrote, I said he will be in tough to beat out 4 guys other than Connor from that list, not that he couldn’t do it. But it’s no sure thing.
In two years he could be as good as any of those guys sans McDavid. The vets you have on that list will be older and I don’t think Iany of the younger guys have proven themselves better then Drai. The best Cs in two years will be McDavid, Mathews and Eichel. The rest will be a crapshoot
JimmyV1965,
Sure. I am not saying he won’t be top 5 C. Just that that is a tall ask and no shame in being outide that and being top 10-15.
A lot depends on what you value.
2-way play
Barkov will eventually replace Bergeron as the perennial Selke candidate.
I rate McDavid and Eichel both above Drai in raw skill
Matthews and Seguin above in goal scoring.
Drai might be one of the top couple of playmakers though.
The San Jose Sharks were always so close to greatness.